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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2011‒06‒11
nine papers chosen by Bibhu Prasad Nayak Institute for Social and Economic Change |
| By: | A. Talha Yalta |
| Date: | 2011–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tob:wpaper:1103&r=cwa |
| By: | Zafer Dilaver (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey); Lester C Hunt (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between Turkish aggregate electricity consumption, GDP and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish aggregate electricity demand. To achieve this, an aggregate electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. The results suggest that GDP, electricity prices and an underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) are all important drivers of Turkish electricity demand. The estimated income and price elasticities are found to be 0.17 and -0.11 respectively with the estimated UEDT found to be generally upward sloping (electricity using) but at a generally decreasing rate. Based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish aggregate electricity demand will be somewhere between 259 TWh and 368 TWh in 2020. |
| Keywords: | Turkish Turkish Aggregate Electricity Demand; Structural Time Series Model (STSM); Energy Demand Modelling and Future Scenarios. |
| JEL: | C22 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2011–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:seedps:132&r=cwa |
| By: | Alquist, Ron; Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. |
| Abstract: | We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Are real or nominal oil prices predictable based on macroeconomic aggregates? Does this predictability translate into gains in out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared with conventional no-change forecasts? How useful are oil futures markets in forecasting the price of oil? How useful are survey forecasts? How does one evaluate the sensitivity of a baseline oil price forecast to alternative assumptions about future demand and supply conditions? How does one quantify risks associated with oil price forecasts? Can joint forecasts of the price of oil and of U.S. real GDP growth be improved upon by allowing for asymmetries? |
| Keywords: | Asymmetries; Demand and supply; Forecasting; Oil price; Predictability |
| JEL: | C53 Q43 |
| Date: | 2011–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8388&r=cwa |
| By: | Shawkat Hammoudeh; Soodabeh Sarafrazi; Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer (University of Canterbury) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the short- and long-run daily relationships for a grain-energy nexus that includes the prices of corn, crude oil, ethanol, gasoline, soybeans, and sugar, and their open interest. The empirical results demonstrate the presence of these relationships in this nexus, and underscore the importance of ethanol and soybeans in all these relationships. In particular, ethanol and be considered as a catalyst in this nexus because of its significance as a loading factor, a long-run error corrector and a short-run adjuster. Ethanol leads all commodities in the price discovery process in the long run. The negative cross-price open interest effects suggest that there is a money outflow from all commodities in response to increases in open interest positions in the corn futures markets, indicating that active arbitrage activity takes place in those markets. On the other hand, an increase in the soybean open interest contributes to fund inflows in the corn futures market and the other futures markets, leading to more speculative activities in these markets. In connection with open interest, the ethanol market fails because of its thin market. Finally, it is interesting to note that the long-run equilibrium (cointegrating relationship), speeds of adjustment and open interest across markets have strengthened significantly during the 2009-2011 economic recovery period, compared with the full and 2007-2009 Great Recession periods. |
| Keywords: | Energy-grain price nexus; open interest; futures prices; ethanol; crude oil; gasoline; corn; soybean; sugar; arbitrage; speculation |
| JEL: | E43 Q11 Q13 |
| Date: | 2011–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:11/24&r=cwa |
| By: | KUBO Fumiaki |
| Abstract: | The foreign and national security policy team under President Obama consists mostly of moderate Democrats and moderate/realist Republicans, although Obama originally came from a group close to anti-war/leftist activists of the Democratic Party. Obama started with many bold initiatives on multi-fronts based on the belief in rationality, calling for negotiations even with North Korea and Iran. <br /><br />The tone of Obama's foreign policies, however, has undergone a significant change. He is now very tough with Iran. The policies toward China have also shifted significantly. His only concrete achievement in foreign policy area has been the nuclear reduction agreement with Russia, which he obtained without compromising a lot on missile defense. Some journalists now characterize his foreign policies as realist. It is premature to judge on this, but we need to be aware of the change and its implications. |
| Date: | 2010–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:10044&r=cwa |
| By: | Hal Hill; Juthathip Jongwanich |
| Abstract: | This paper documents and analyzes the rise of emerging East Asian economies as major international investors. Foreign direct investment (FDI) from these economies is rising faster than their economic growth, trade, and inward FDI, and the region is by far the most important investor from the developing world. We develop an analytical interpretation of the behaviour and competitive strategies of major developing East Asian outward investors. We conclude that the drivers of this outward FDI are generally consistent with the international investment literature. But in addition particular factors are at work, including the desire for natural resource security, and exceptionally high domestic savings rates. The major challenge for the rest of the world is to accommodate these FDI flows, as part of the global reorientation of economic activity towards East Asia. |
| Keywords: | East Asia, outward foreign investment, emerging economies |
| JEL: | F21 F23 O33 O53 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2011-07&r=cwa |
| By: | Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz |
| Abstract: | We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We document that revisions of the data typically represent news, and we introduce backcasting and nowcasting techniques to fill gaps in the real-time data. We show that real-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up to one year. In some cases real-time MSPE reductions may be as high as 25 percent one month ahead and 24 percent three months ahead. This result is in striking contrast to related results in the literature for asset prices. In particular, recursive vector autoregressive (VAR) forecasts based on global oil market variables tend to have lower MSPE at short horizons than forecasts based on oil futures prices, forecasts based on AR and ARMA models, and the no-change forecast. In addition, these VAR models have consistently higher directional accuracy. We demonstrate how with additional identifying assumptions such VAR models may be used not only to understand historical fluctuations in the real price of oil, but to construct conditional forecasts that reflect hypothetical scenarios about future demand and supply conditions in the market for crude oil. These tools are designed to allow forecasters to interpret their oil price forecast in light of economic models and to evaluate its sensitivity to alternative assumptions. |
| Keywords: | Forecast; Oil price; Real time; Scenario analysis |
| JEL: | C53 E32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2011–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8414&r=cwa |
| By: | Liat Raz-Yurovich (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | How relevant are the available theoretical perspectives on marriage dissolution for understanding modern family forms? By employing a unique set of longitudinal register-based data for the Jewish population in Israel, this study seeks to find out which of the major theoretical perspectives on economic determinants of divorce best explains the transition to divorce among dual-earner couples. Our findings appear to support theories that assert asymmetry and power relations between the spouses. The women's economic independence hypothesis is not confirmed by our results, which indicate that the wife’s earnings do not affect divorce risk. In line with theories of income pooling, higher shared salaries are found to increase marital stability. Nonetheless, our results demonstrate that the basic assumption of symmetry between the spouses in these theories does not hold. Although employment stability for both spouses appears to reduce divorce risk, only the husband’s salary is shown to negatively affect the odds of divorce, and only the wife’s working hours and sector of employment are found to positively affect marriage instability. Moreover, couples in which the wife earns as much as or more than the husband are found to have the highest divorce risk. |
| Keywords: | Israel, home economics |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2011–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-008&r=cwa |
| By: | Sami Bibi; Jean-Yves Duclos; Abdelkrim Araar |
| Abstract: | Income mobility is often thought to equalize permanent incomes and thereby to improve social welfare. The welfare analysis of mobility often fails, however, to account for the cost of the variability of periodic incomes around permanent incomes. This paper assesses the net welfare benefit of mobility by assuming both a social aversion to inequality in permanent incomes and an individual aversion to variability in periodic incomes. The paper further investigates the combined (and comparative) impact of mobility and of the tax system (another presumed income equalizer) on the dynamics of income across time and on the inequality of income across individuals. Using panel data, we find that Canada’s tax system limits significantly the redistributive impact of mobility while also lowering considerably the cost of income variability. The permanent income equalizing effect of taxes can reach up to 23 percent of mean income at the higher values of inequality aversion that we use. Globally, the net social welfare effect of both mobility and taxation is (almost always) positive and substantial, often amounting to around 30 percent of mean income. For all choices of parameter values, the tax effect exceeds by far the net effect of mobility on inequality and social welfare. |
| Keywords: | Mobility, social welfare, risk, income variability, inequality, permanent income |
| JEL: | D31 D63 H24 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1114&r=cwa |