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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2011‒05‒14
ten papers chosen by Bibhu Prasad Nayak Institute for Social and Economic Change |
| By: | Robert Tchaidze; Salome Tvalodze |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes behavior of the real deposits in Georgia in1996-2009 by modeling demand for the real broad money balances and the cash-deposit ratio. The results suggest that the main factors that affected deposits over those years were income, development of the financial sector, and changes in the tax burden, while changes in the interest rate and inflation played only a minor role. The results also demonstrate importance of the geopolitical events as they affect confidence in the banking sector. |
| Keywords: | Banking sector , Commercial banks , Currency depositories , Demand for money , Economic models , Georgia , |
| Date: | 2011–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/78&r=cwa |
| By: | Ibrahim Tutar (Penetra Consulting); Aysit Tansel (Middle East Technical University,Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Bonn, Germany and Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo, Egypt) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of fragmented governments and fiscal authorities on budget deficits in Turkey along with political business cycle effects. For econometric analysis we will use annual data from the period of 1960-2009. This paper sheds light on various dispersion indices and their use in the field of political power and fiscal performance. The results show that the power dispersion indices of governments and fiscal institutions significantly explain the increases in the ratio of budget deficit to GNP. The paper draws attention to the unification and better coordination of fiscal authorities in Turkey. The analysis has important policy implications for Turkey and other developing countries from the viewpoint of fragmented political and administrative dispersion of power and poor budget performances. |
| Keywords: | Political Business Cycles, Fragmentation and Power Dispersion, Public Budget, Turkey, Statistical Indices |
| JEL: | P16 H72 C22 C43 |
| Date: | 2011–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1112&r=cwa |
| By: | Badi H. Baltagi; Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Timur Hulagu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the Turkish wage curve using individual data from the Household Labor Force Survey (HLFS) including 26 NUTS-2 regions over the period 2005 - 2008. When the local unemployment rate is treated as predetermined, there is evidence in favor of the wage curve only for younger and female workers. However, if the lagged unemployment rate is used as an instrument for current unemployment rate, we find an unemployment elasticity of -0.099. We also find a higher elasticity for younger, less educated, low experienced workers than for older, more educated and more experienced workers. Another important finding is that the wages of females in Turkey are significantly more responsive to local unemployment rates than their male counterparts. |
| Keywords: | Wage Curve, Fixed Effects, Regional Labor Markets, Two-Stage Least Squares |
| JEL: | J30 J60 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1106&r=cwa |
| By: | Onour, Ibrahim |
| Abstract: | After highlighting different views of Islamic scholars on option derivatives, the paper explores a potential role for option derivatives as useful risk management tool in commodity markets, while attuned to Islamic Shariah principles. The author illustrated a model of commodity stock market to show how options can play a role similar to that of insurance of risks in commodity markets. |
| Keywords: | options;risk;islamic derivative |
| JEL: | E00 G10 |
| Date: | 2011–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:30707&r=cwa |
| By: | Katherine Casey; Rachel Glennerster; Edward Miguel |
| Abstract: | Although institutions are believed to be key determinants of economic performance, there is limited evidence on how they can be successfully reformed. The most popular strategy to improve local institutions in developing countries is “community driven development” (CDD). This paper estimates the impact of a CDD program in post-war Sierra Leone using a randomized experiment and novel outcome measures. We find positive short-run effects on local public goods provision, but no sustained impacts on fund-raising, decision-making processes, or the involvement of marginalized groups (like women) in local affairs, indicating that CDD was ineffective at durably reshaping local institutions. |
| JEL: | F35 H41 O4 |
| Date: | 2011–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17012&r=cwa |
| By: | Norbert Walter |
| Abstract: | The report reflects on a wealth of impressions from the emerging continent. Political and economic developments from the Hindukush to Japan are assessed and put into a global context. The issues addressed include the elections in Japan, the security challenges for the Hindukush region and new political forces in Thailand and Malaysia. Besides presenting a vision for the future of the car industry an appraisal of the creation of a Single Market for Asia. And last, but by no means least, an outlook for the global economy is presented by describing the current recession as a triple-U-shaped cycle. URL:[https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR _INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000247591.p df]. |
| Keywords: | current recession, U-shaped cycle, Thailand, Malaysia, Asia-pacific, economies, GDP, india, political, karachi, wealth, emerging continent, Asia, Japan, political forces, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:3804&r=cwa |
| By: | Haiyan Xu (Institute of International Studies, Fudan University and Center for Energy Economics and Strategy Studies, Fudan University); ZhongXiang Zhang (East-West Center) |
| Abstract: | Crude oil prices have been fluctuating over time and by a large range. It is the disorganization of oil price series that makes it difficult to deduce the changing trends of oil prices in the middle- and long-terms and predict their price levels in the short-term. Following a price-state classification and state transition analysis of changing oil prices from January 2004 to April 2010, this paper first verifies that the observed crude oil price series during the soaring period follow a Markov Chain. Next, the paper deduces the changing trends of oil prices by the limit probability of a Markov Chain. We then undertake a probability distribution analysis and find that the oil price series have a log-normality distribution. On this basis, we integrate the two models to deduce the changing trends of oil prices from the short-term to the middle- and long-terms, thus making our deduction academically sound. Our results match the actual changing trends of oil prices, and show the possibility of re-emerging soaring oil prices. |
| Keywords: | Oil Price, Log-normality Distribution, Limit Probability of a Markov Chain, Trend Deduction Model, OPEC |
| JEL: | Q41 C12 C49 F01 O13 |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.22&r=cwa |
| By: | Hooshang Maktabi, Dr. Abdolreza Pazhakh; Dr. Abdolreza Pazhakh (Islamic Azad University, Dezful Branch, Iran) |
| Abstract: | Commercialization of research results is a process through which the knowledge produced at universities and research bureaus is changed into industrial processes or products offerable to the market. This process requires serious cooperation and interaction among the higher educational centers, the research bureaus affiliated to the government, industrial companies, financial firms, investors, entrepreneurs and academic individuals. This article aims to study the necessity of commercialization practice of research results and practical procedures of such an enterprise in which five elements and dimensions have been pointed out. Using the AHP technique, these five elements have been put in a hierarchy to allow the corresponding authorities to pave the way for developing the relationship between the higher educational and industrial centers emphasizing and regarding the above-stated dimensions. In a word, attempt has been made to have the commercialization of universities, in a special sense, endorsed. |
| Keywords: | commercialization, research team, innovation, development, development team, technology transfer, AHP technique |
| JEL: | E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2010–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cms:1icb10:2010-064&r=cwa |
| By: | Gervais, Jean-Philippe; Lambert, Remy |
| Keywords: | Hogs, marketing, vertical coordination, auctions, Industrial Organization, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2010–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:spaawp:102014&r=cwa |
| By: | Bruno S. Frey |
| Abstract: | Gordon Tullock has been one of the most important founders and contributors to Public Choice. Two innovations are typical “Tullock Challenges”. The first relates to method: the measurement of subjective well-being, or happiness. The second relates to digital social networks such as Facebook, Twitter, or to some extent Google. Both innovations lead to strong incentives by the governments to manipulate the policy consequences. In general “What is important, will be manipulated by the government”. To restrain government manipulation one has to turn to Constitutional Economics and increase the possibilities for direct popular participation and federalism, or introduce random mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Happiness, social networks, constitutional economics, random mechanisms, public choice |
| JEL: | D72 H10 I31 P16 D02 |
| Date: | 2011–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:015&r=cwa |