|
on Central and Western Asia |
|
Issue of 2011‒03‒12
eight papers chosen by Bibhu Prasad Nayak Institute for Social and Economic Change |
| By: | Chauffour, Jean-Pierre |
| Abstract: | The current political turmoil for more open and participative societies in many Arab countries coupled with the emergence of new growth poles around the world could create the conditions for a big push toward greater regional and global trade integration of the Arab world. Further integrating Arab countries among themselves and opening up the region to the rest of the world are two complementary avenues to improve market access, promote behind-the-border regulatory reforms, facilitate cooperation on regional public goods, foster the emergence of an"Arab factory"through regional supply chains and productions networks, and eventually create the conditions for more and better paid jobs for the growing Arab workforce. A more ambitious trade agenda in the context of the Pan-Arab Free Trade Area would be a good place to start. Although difficult and challenging, and requiring a good dosage of flexibility and variable geometry, such an agenda would consist of (1) completing the free movement of goods within the Pan-Arab Free Trade Area, notably through the elimination of unnecessary non-tariff barriers; (2) implementing a regional initiative to liberalize services trade, including identifying a number of pilot service sectors for early regional liberalization; and (3) strengthening the rules and discipline applicable to regional trade and other policies of common interest. |
| Keywords: | Free Trade,Trade Law,Emerging Markets,Trade and Regional Integration,Trade Policy |
| Date: | 2011–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5581&r=cwa |
| By: | Breisinger, Clemens; Engelke, Wilfried; Ecker, Olivier |
| Abstract: | Petroleum subsidy reform is increasingly seen as an opportunity for consolidating public finances and fostering sustainable economic development. Yemen, as the country with the lowest per capita income in the group of countries with a high level of energy subsidies, started to reduce subsidies in 2010 and is discussing further options for reform. The results of this paper support a comprehensive petroleum subsidy reform in Yemen. Economic growth is projected to accelerate between 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points annually as a result of reform. Yet, the design of the reform is critically important, especially for the poor. Outcomes of alternative reform scenarios range from an increase in poverty of 2 to 6 percentage points. A promising strategy combines subsidy reduction with direct transfers of 13,800 to 19,700 Yemeni rials annually to the poorest 30 percent of households and enhanced public investments. Investments should focus on the utilities, transport, trade, and construction sectors to integrate economic spaces and create the platform for a restructuring of agricultural, industrial, and service value chains, which should encourage private sector led and job creating growth in the medium term. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Access to Finance,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2011–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5577&r=cwa |
| By: | Cornelia Kaldewei; Ingo Pitterle |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data from Jordan’s 2007 Demographic and Health Survey to reassess the main determinants of child mortality in this middle-income country. Running different logit estimations to allow for different time windows and sets of variables, we find that behavioural factors have gained importance, compared to the household and community factors that were found to be important in earlier studies. We conclude that once a country has passed a certain threshold in household income, education and access to health care and safe drinking water, policies targeting behavioural changes are the most promising for achieving further reductions in mortality rates. |
| Keywords: | child mortality; infant mortality; emerging determinants; behavioural factors; middle-income countries; Jordan |
| JEL: | I12 I18 J13 O29 |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:une:wpaper:103&r=cwa |
| By: | Rocco, Lorenzo; Tanabe, Kimie; Suhrcke, Marc; Fumagalli, Elena |
| Abstract: | By causing a sizeable reduction in employment 6 percent and labor supply 19 percent, chronic diseases are responsible for a major efficiency loss in the Egyptian economy. Furthermore the impact of chronic diseases on the labor market is not uniformly distributed. The older and the less educated suffer a larger drop in the probability of being employed and in their supply of working hours. The authors estimate the reduced form equations of individual employment status, labor supply and the usual wage equation. They control for unobserved ability and individual preferences by means of a within-siblings estimator. Measurement errors in our self-reported health variable have been accounted for. |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Labor Markets,Disease Control&Prevention,Labor Policies,Population Policies |
| Date: | 2011–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5575&r=cwa |
| By: | Alberto Botta; Gianni Vaggi (Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Italy) |
| Abstract: | The sixty-year-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict has deeply influenced the evolution of the Palestinian economy. In the last two decades persisting political instability and the Israeli closure policy have been sources of protracted economic stagnation and poor capital formation. The paper describes the consequences on the Palestinian economy of two particular conditions: high transaction costs and market fragmentation. We use a simple one-sector model which describes Palestine as a demand-driven economy and Palestinian capital accumulation as linked to desired investments by Palestinian firms. Into this framework, we show that high transaction costs discourage capital formation by curtailing expected profitability. Market fragmentation further reduces domestic investments by reducing the size of the market and depressing entrepreneurs’ animal spirits. We show that in the short-run, where expectations are given, the two above facts induce low levels of capacity utilization and of capital accumulation. The situation is even more worrying in the long-run when entrepreneurs can adapt their expectations. Depressed animal spirits and low levels of capacity use feed back into each other and give rise to a low-growth trap from which Palestine can hardly escape. We also highlight the possible positive impact of the removal of high transaction cost and of market fragmentation and the ensuing benefits on the long run equilibrium values of both capital accumulation and capacity utilization. The conclusions try to set this analytical results into the historical situation of the Palestinian economy and to envisage the roles of economics and politics in order to establish a sustained process of development. |
| Keywords: | Palestine, low-growth trap, post-Keynesian models |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ins:quaeco:qf1105&r=cwa |
| By: | Zsolt Darvas (Institute of Economics Hungarian Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of the 2008-09 global financial and economic crisis on the medium-term growth prospects of the countries of central and eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, which began an economic transition about two decades ago. We use cross-country growth regressions, putting special emphasis on a proper consideration of the crisis and robustness. We find that the crisis has had a major impact on the within-sample fit of the models used and that the positive impact of EU enlargement on growth is smaller than previous research has shown. The crisis has also altered the future growth prospects of the countries studied, even in the optimistic but unrealistic case of a return to pre-crisis capital inflows and credit booms. |
| Keywords: | crisis; economic growth; growth regressions; transition countries |
| JEL: | C31 C33 O47 |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:1103&r=cwa |
| By: | Tiwari, Aviral; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Shabbir, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | Using data for SAARC region, we found real GDP per capita is nonlinear stationary implying that shocks to economy by economic policies (external or internal) have permanent effects on real per capita GDP of SAARC countries. This finding reveals that classical growth model works better to boost economic growth in long run. |
| Keywords: | GDP; Non-stationarity; panel unit root tets |
| JEL: | C32 E32 |
| Date: | 2011–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:29109&r=cwa |
| By: | Akram, Naeem |
| Abstract: | Sustainable economic growth and Poverty alleviation is a principal objective of the developing countries. The present study aims to historically review of fiscal policy and its consequences for the economic development of the four South Asian economies i.e. Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Confined revenues and savings coupled with rising expenditures have caused situation of persistent fiscal deficit over the years. Coupled with that countries are also facing current account deficit. Resultantly, ‘Twin Deficit problem’ emerged, and it is filled by public deb. Consequently countries have to spend considerable portion of their GDP on interest payments of the loans. The need to service debt obligation is undermining economic performance and resulting in collapse of development planning. Because debt obligations and expenditure on debt servicing become a resource drain for already limited revenues and is halting economic growth and poverty reduction efforts. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy; Poverty; Economic growth |
| JEL: | H62 O43 I32 |
| Date: | 2010–11–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:29103&r=cwa |