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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2011‒02‒26
eleven papers chosen by Bibhu Prasad Nayak Institute for Social and Economic Change |
| By: | Gul Ertan Ozguzer (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics); Alper Duman (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The dramatic surge in imports of goods and services without a concomitant surge in exports in Turkey deserves a sound explanation. The studies on the issue addressed increasing import dependency of the manufacturing sector in Turkey. This paper has attempted to scrutinize the reasons behind this phenomenon by looking not only at the manufacturing sector as the past studies did, but also at the other sectors of the economy. Using 1998 and 2002 Input -Output Tables, import requirement ratios have been calculated for 12 aggregate sectors. The results demonstrate that the contribution of the “wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and household goods” sector to the increasing import dependency, hence to significantly rising imports, is greater than that of the manufacturing sector. |
| Keywords: | Input-Output Model, import requirement ratio, sector analysis, Turkey |
| JEL: | C67 F14 |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:izm:wpaper:1005&r=cwa |
| By: | Aktas, Erkan; Özenç, Çiğdem; Arıca, Feyza |
| Abstract: | This study explores the impact of fluctuations in oil prices on Turkey's economy. The data used in this study covers the years from 1991 to 2008. Macro-economic variables used in this study are GNP, inflation, unemployment and the ratio of exports to imports. VAR model is used in estimating the macro-economic impact of oil prices. Based on the results of the analysis conducted, a meaningful relationship of oil prices with inflation, unemployment and the ratio of exports to imports is estimated. However, it is observed that a rise in oil prices do not have any substantial impact on macro-economic variables. While an inverse relationship of oil prices with the ratio of exports to imports and unemployment is estimated, a direct relationship between oil prices and inflation emerged. The results of impulse-response analysis shows that the responses of macro-economic variables to oil price shocks become stable only after one year. |
| Keywords: | Oil prices; VAR; Macroeconomics; Turkey |
| JEL: | C32 E6 |
| Date: | 2010–02–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:8658&r=cwa |
| By: | James D. Hamilton |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys the history of the oil industry with a particular focus on the events associated with significant changes in the price of oil. Although oil was used much differently and was substantially less important economically in the nineteenth century than it is today, there are interesting parallels between events in that era and more recent developments. Key post-World-War-II oil shocks reviewed include the Suez Crisis of 1956-57, the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-1974, the Iranian revolution of 1978-1979, the Iran-Iraq War initiated in 1980, the first Persian Gulf War in 1990-91, and the oil price spike of 2007-2008. Other more minor disturbances are also discussed, as are the economic downturns that followed each of the major postwar oil shocks. |
| JEL: | E32 Q41 Q43 |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16790&r=cwa |
| By: | Vincent Bremond; Emmanuel Hache; Valérie Mignon |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to determine if OPEC acts as a cartel by testing whether the production decisions of the different countries are coordinated and if they have an influence on oil prices. Relying on cointegration and causality tests in both time series and panel settings, our findings show that the OPEC influence has evolved through time, following the changes in the oil pricing system. While the influence of OPEC is found to be important just after the counter-oil shock, our results show that OPEC is price taker on the majority of the considered sub-periods. Finally, by dividing OPEC between savers and spenders, we show that it acts as a cartel mainly with a subgroup of its members. |
| Keywords: | Oil prices, oil production, OPEC, cartel, cointegration, causality. |
| JEL: | C22 C23 L11 Q40 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2011-5&r=cwa |
| By: | Tigran Poghosyan; Samya Beidas-Strom |
| Abstract: | This paper presents and estimates a small open economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model (DSGE) for the Jordanian economy. The model features nominal and real rigidities, imperfect competition and habit formation in the consumer’s utility function. Oil imports are explicitly modeled in the consumption basket and domestic production. Bayesian estimation methods are employed on quarterly Jordanian data. The model’s properties are described by impulse response analysis of identified structural shocks pertinent to the economy. These properties assess the effectiveness of the pegged exchange rate regime in minimizing inflation and output trade-offs. The estimates of the structural parameters fall within plausible ranges, and simulation results suggest that while the peg amplifies output, consumption and (price and wage) inflation volatility, it offers a relatively low risk premium. |
| Keywords: | Income , Monetary policy , Exchange rate depreciation , Exchange rate appreciation , Economic models , External shocks , Demand , Oil prices , Price adjustments , Wage policy , Consumption , Exchange rate policy , |
| Date: | 2011–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/28&r=cwa |
| By: | Yasmina Hamouda (Faculty of Management Technology, The German University in Cairo) |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the rise of the electricity tariffs applied on industrial customer and the frequent electricity cut offs recently experienced in Egypt, this paper assesses the economic feasibility of installing a stand alone wind energy technology by an industrial customer who seeks to reduce his dependency on the national grid. For this purpose, the wind energy potential at the wind regime of Cairo was chosen to be assessed using half an hour wind speed data for a full one-year period (2009). The Weibull parameters of the wind speed distribution function were estimated by employing the maximum likelihood approach. The estimation revealed that Cairo has poor wind resources. Despite the poor resources, the financial analysis has shown that under certain parameters the wind project can prove to be financially viable. Thus harnessing wind energy through stand alone systems can help in meeting the industries electric power needs. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy, wind resources, Weibull distribution, electricity |
| JEL: | Q42 O22 N77 |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:guc:wpaper:25&r=cwa |
| By: | Harun Alp; Y. Soner Baskaya; Mustafa Kilinc; Canan Yuksel |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1103&r=cwa |
| By: | Tahsin Saadi-Sedik; Serhan Cevik |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from 1990 to 2010. Analyzing two very distinct commodities-crude oil and fine wine, we find that macroeconomic factors are the main determinants of commodity prices. Although supply constraints have the expected effect, aggregate demand growth is the key factor. The empirical results show that while advanced economies account for more than half of global consumption, emerging economies make up the bulk of the incremental change in demand, thereby having a greater weight in commodity price formation. The results also show that the shift in the composition of aggregate commodity demand is a recent phenomenon. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural commodities , Agricultural prices , Commodity price fluctuations , Consumption , Demand , Economic growth , Emerging markets , International liquidity , Oil prices , Oil sector , Supply , |
| Date: | 2011–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/1&r=cwa |
| By: | Rudiger von Arnim and Codrina Rada |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a model of a developing economy with three sectors---a modern sector producing manufactures and services, a traditional sector producing agricultural goods, and a third sector providing energy. Modern and energy sector are assumed to be demand--constrained; the agricultural sector is supply--constrained. Simulation exercises confirm insights of existing theory on structural heterogeneity: A price--clearing agricultural sector can impose an inflationary barrier on growth. Further, emphasis is placed on the sources of productivity growth. Specifically, higher energy intensity rather than increases in energy productivity enable labor productivity growth, with the attendant complications for 'green growth'. |
| Keywords: | Structural heterogeneity, Multi-sector model, Energy use JEL Classification: O41, Q43, C63 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uta:papers:2011_06&r=cwa |
| By: | Olivier CARDI (Université Panthéon-Assas ERMES, Ecole Polytechnique); Romain RESTOUT (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | We use a neoclassical open economy model with traded and non traded goods to investigate the sectoral effects of three tax reforms: i) two revenue-neutral shifting the tax burden from labor to consumption taxes and ii) one labor tax restructuring keeping the marginal tax wedge constant. Regardless of its type, a tax reform crowds-in both consumption and investment and raises employment. Whereas tax reforms have a small impact on GDP, they exert substantial effects on sectoral outputs which move in opposite direction in the short-run. The sensitivity analysis reveals that raising the elasticity of labor supply or reducing the tradable content in consumption expenditure amplifies the heterogeneity in sectoral output responses. Finally, allowing for the markup to depend on the number of competitors, we find that a substantial share of sectoral output variations can be attributed to the change in the markup triggered by firm entry. |
| Keywords: | Non Traded Goods; Employment; Current Account; Tax Reform |
| JEL: | F41 E62 E22 |
| Date: | 2010–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2010045&r=cwa |
| By: | Frank A.G. den Butter (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | In this era of globalization we see an increase in specialization: the production chain is |
| Keywords: | transaction costs; outsourcing; trade in tasks; fragmentation of production; make or buy decision; game of trust |
| JEL: | D23 F2 F43 L23 |
| Date: | 2010–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20100051&r=cwa |