|
on Central and Western Asia |
|
Issue of 2011‒02‒12
fourteen papers chosen by Bibhu Prasad Nayak Institute for Social and Economic Change |
| By: | Nader Habibi (Department of Economics, Brandeis University) |
| Abstract: | In light of the growing significance of the Arab import market for the global community this study focuses on how the market shares of leading exporters in the Arab world have evolved over the past two decades. In first part of the analysis I looked at the trends of these market shares over time and in comparison to other developing regions. I investigated the market shares of the United States, China, Japan and the aggregate market share of four largest European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). Since GCC constitutes the largest and most important sub-regional import market inside the Arab world, the study focuses on GCC with more detail. The trend analysis revealed that during 1988-2007 the United States, Japan and European countries have lost market share in Arab markets. China’s market share, which was very small at the beginning of this period, enjoyed a substantial growth over these two decades. The market shares of European countries and the United States were relatively stable before 2000 and most of this market loss was realized during 2000-2007. For Japan on the other hand the market loss was most substantial during the first half of 1990s followed by another noticeable loss during 2005-2007. China’s market share grew at a slow pace up until 2000, followed by faster growth during 2001-2007. In the second part of this analysis I used statistical regression models to investigate the impact of important geopolitical events on relative market shares of the same exporters that were studied in the first section. In light of the complex diplomatic and security relations between the United States and Arab countries it might be the case that Arab imports from the US are sensitive to the ups and downs of the US-Arab relations. To investigate this theory I focused on four important geopolitical events: Gulf War I (1991), Second Palestinian Intifada (2000-2001), The September 11 terror attack (2001) and the US invasion of Iraq (2003-2004). In my statistical model the dependent variables are the market shares of the leading exporters to each Arab country or bloc of countries. The statistical results suggest that the Gulf War I and the US invasion of Iraq have both been associated with changes in US market share in Arab imports. We observe a positive association between Gulf War I and the US market share in GCC countries and the aggregate imports of Arab countries in 1991 and 1992. On the other hand we observe a negative association between the invasion of Iraq and the US market share in aggregate imports of the Arab world. Among GCC countries this negative association is only significant for the US market share in Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, the analysis shows a strong and positive growth in market shares of Asia and Europe during 2003 and 2004 which are associated with the US invasion of Iraq. The results for the second intifada/September 11 event are mixed. This period is associated with an increase in US market share in Bahrain and a negative market share in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. No significant association is detected in other GCC countries or in the aggregate imports of GCC as a group. Nevertheless we observe a negative association between this pair of events and the US market share in the aggregate imports of Arab countries. |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:brd:wpaper:24&r=cwa |
| By: | Reyer Gerlagh (Tilburg University, Netherlands); Nicole A. Mathys (Swiss Federal Office of Energy and University of Neuchâtel,) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of countries’ energy abundance on trade and sector activity, conditional on sector’s energy intensity, using an unbalanced panel with 14 high-income countries from Europe, America and Asia, 10 broad sectors, and years 1970-1997. We find that (i) countries with large energy endowments have low energy prices, and are thus energy abundant both on micro and macro level. (ii) Energy abundant countries have a high level of energy embodied in exports relative to imports. (iii) Energy intensive sectors export from and (iv) have higher economic activity in energy abundant countries. (v) The trade and location effects increase with a sector’s exposure to international trade. In short, energy is a major driver for sector location through specialisation. We show that capital and energy are complements in the production function and use various controls in our analysis. The results give insights into delocalisation effects that may take place among rich countries with heterogeneous energy policy. |
| Keywords: | Trade and the Environment, Pollution Haven, Factor Endowments, Industry Location |
| JEL: | Q56 |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.03&r=cwa |
| By: | Massimiliano Mazzanti (University of Ferrara (DEIT) and National Research Council (CERIS Milan)); Antonio Musolesi (INRAE Dijon, France and LSE department of Geography and the Environment) |
| Abstract: | We study the eventual structural differences of climate change leading ‘actors’ such as Northern EU countries, and ‘lagging actors’ - southern EU countries and the ‘Umbrella group’ - with regard to long run (1960-2001) carbon-income relationships. Parametric and semi parametric panel models show that the groups of countries that were in the Kyoto arena less in favour of stringent climate policy, have yet to experience a turning point, though they at least show relative delinking in their monotonic carbon-income relationship. Northern EU instead robustly shows bell shapes across models, which seem to depend on time related (policy) events. Time related effects are more relevant than income effects in explaining the occurrence of robust Kuznets curves. The reaction of northern EU to exogenous policy events such as the 1992 climate change convention that gave earth to the Kyoto era, and even the second oil shock that preceded it in the 80’s are among the causes of the observed structural differences. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Kuznets Curves, Kyoto, Long Run Dynamics, Policy Events, Heterogeneous Panels, Cross-Section Correlation, Semi Parametric Models, Common Time Trends |
| JEL: | C14 C22 C23 Q53 |
| Date: | 2010–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2010.149&r=cwa |
| By: | International Rivers Network IRN |
| Abstract: | Improving our ability to cope with floods under current and future climates requires adopting a more sophisticated set of techniques -- the "soft path" of flood risk management, which aims to understand, adapt to and work with the forces of nature. The report gives an in-depth look at the flaws with hard, structural flood-control techniques and describes what we need to do to make our communities safer from floods. |
| Keywords: | storms, dam management, rivers, coasts, nature, flood control, floods, risk, rechniques, communities, flood control technique, climate, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:3531&r=cwa |
| By: | AKAY Alpaslan; BARGAIN Olivier; ZIMMERMANN Klaus F. |
| Abstract: | How the income of "relevant others" a¤ects well-being has received renewed interest in the recent literature using subjective data. Migrants constitutes a particularly interesting group to study this question: as they changed environment, they are likely to be concerned by several potential reference groups including the people "left behind", other migrants and "natives". We focus here on the huge population of rural-to-urban migrants in China. We exploit a novel dataset that comprises samples of migrants and urban people living in the same cities, as well as rural households mostly surveyed in the provinces where migrants are coming from. After establishing these links, we ?nd that the well-being of migrants is largely affected by relative concerns: results point to negative relative concerns toward other migrants and workers of home regions ?this status e¤ect is particularly strong for migrants who wish to settle permanently in cities. We ?nd in contrast a positive relative income e¤ect vis-à-vis the urban reference group, interpreted as a signal e¤ect: larger urban incomes indicate higher income prospects for the migrants. A richer pattern is obtained when sorting migrants according to the duration of stay, expectations to return to home countries and characteristics related to family circumstances, work conditions and community ties. |
| Keywords: | China; relative concerns; well-being |
| JEL: | C90 D63 |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2011-12&r=cwa |
| By: | Shah, Ajay (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Patnaik, Ila (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | India embarked on reintegration with the world econ- omy in the early 1990s. At first, a certain limited open- ing took place emphasising equity flows by certain kinds of foreign investors. This opening has had myriad in- teresting implications in terms of both microeconomics and macroeconomics. A dynamic process of change in the economy and in economic policy then came about, with a co-evolution between the system of capital con- trols, macroeconomic policy, and the internationalisa- tion of firms including the emergence of Indian multi- nationals. Through this process, de facto openness has risen sharply. De facto openness has implied a loss of monetary policy autonomy when exchange rate pegging was attempted. The exchange rate regime has evolved towards greater flexibility. |
| Keywords: | India ; Financial globalisation ; Capital controls, Capital flows |
| JEL: | F15 F23 F32 F36 G15 |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:11/79&r=cwa |
| By: | Ahmet Faruk Aysan (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); G. Pang (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Marie-Ange Veganzones (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | During the 1980s and the 1990s, private investment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has on average shown a decreasing or stagnant trend. This contrasts with the situation of the Asian economies, where private investment has always been more dynamic. In this paper, it is empirically shown for a panel of 39 developing economies--among which four MENA countries-- that in addition to the traditional determinants of investment--such as the growth anticipations and the real interest rate--government policies explain MENA's low investment rate. Insufficient structural reforms--which have most of the time led to poor financial development and deficient trade openness¬¬--have been a crucial factor for the deficit in private capital formation. The economic uncertainties of the region have represented another factor of the firm's decisions not to invest. These uncertainties have consisted of the external debt burden and various measures of volatility. |
| Keywords: | cerdi |
| Date: | 2011–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00562635&r=cwa |
| By: | Heltberg, Rasmus; Bonch-Osmolovskiy, Misha |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a methodology for regional disaggregated estimation and mapping of the areas that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability and applies it to Tajikistan, a mountainous country highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The authors construct the vulnerability index as a function of exposure to climate variability and natural disasters, sensitivity to the impacts of that exposure, and capacity to adapt to ongoing and future climatic changes. This index can inform decisions about adaptation responses that might benefit from an assessment of how and why vulnerability to climate change varies regionally and it may therefore prove a useful tool for policy analysts interested in how to ensure pro-poor adaptation in developing countries. Index results for Tajikistan suggest that vulnerability varies according to socio-economic and institutional development in ways that do not follow directly from exposure or elevation: geography is not destiny. The results indicate that urban areas are by far the least vulnerable, while the eastern Region of Republican Subordination mountain zone is the most vulnerable. Prime agricultural valleys are also relatively more vulnerable, implying that adaptation planners do not necessarily face a trade-off between defending vulnerable areas and defending economically important areas. These results lend support to at least some elements of current adaptation practice. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Science of Climate Change,Climate Change Economics,Adaptation to Climate Change |
| Date: | 2011–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5554&r=cwa |
| By: | Cahit Guven (Deakin University - Minister for Innovation, Industry, Science and Research); Claudia Senik (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, Université Paris-Sorbonne - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l'Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche); Holger Stichnoth (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung - ZEW) |
| Abstract: | This paper asks whether a gap in spouses' subjective happiness matters per se, i.e. whether it predicts divorce. We use three large panel surveys to explore this question. Controlling for the life satisfaction levels of spouses, we find that a larger happiness gap, even in the first year of marriage, increases the likelihood of a future separation. This association even holds for couples where both spouses are identified as being better off than in their outside option. We interpret this observation as reflecting a concern for relative utility. To the best of our knowledge, this effect has not been taken into account by any existing economic models of the household. The relationship between happiness gaps and divorce is consistent with the fact that couples who are unable to transfer utility are more at risk than others. It is also possible that assortative mating by happiness baseline level reduces the risk of separation. However, assortative mating cannot entirely explain the finding, as a widening of the happiness gap over time increases the risk of separation. We also uncover an asymmetry in the effect of happiness gaps: couples are more likely to break-up when the difference in life satisfaction is unfavorable to the woman. De facto, divorces appear to be initiated predominantly by women who are less happy than their husband. This asymmetry suggests that the effect of happiness gaps is grounded on motives of relative deprivation, rather than on a preference for equal happiness. The presence of this new argument in spouses' utility is likely to modify their optimal behavior, e.g. in terms of labor supply. It should also be taken into account for public policy measures concerning gender-based labor incentives. |
| Keywords: | divorce ; happiness ; comparisons ; panel ; households, marriage |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00555427&r=cwa |
| By: | Nathalie Trudeau; Isabel Murray |
| Abstract: | Russia is sometimes referred to as “the Saudi Arabia of energy efficiency”; its vast potential to reduce energy consumption can be considered a significant “energy reserve”. Russia, recognising the benefits of more efficient use of energy, is taking measures to exploit this potential. The president has set the goal to reduce energy intensity by 40% between 2007 and 2020. In the past few years, the IEA has worked closely with Russian authorities to support the development of energy efficiency indicators in Russia, critical to an effective implementation and monitoring of Russia’s ambitious energy intensity and efficiency goals. The key findings of the IEA work with Russia on developing energy efficiency indicators form the core of this report. |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ieaaaa:2011/1-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Bin Dong (The School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology); Benno Torgler (The School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology, CREMA – Centre for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts and CESifo) |
| Abstract: | We explore theoretically and empirically whether social interaction, including local and global interaction, influences the incidence of corruption. We first present an interaction-based model on corruption that predicts that the level of corruption is positively associated with social interaction. Then we empirically verify the theoretical prediction using within-country evidence at the province-level in China during 1998 to 2007. Panel data evidence clearly indicates that social interaction has a statistically significantly positive effect on the corruption rate in China. Our findings, therefore, underscore the relevance of social interaction in understanding corruption. |
| Keywords: | Corruption, Social Interaction, China |
| JEL: | K42 D72 D64 O17 J24 |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.09&r=cwa |
| By: | David Masclet; Charles N. Noussair; Marie-Claire Villeval |
| Abstract: | Experimental studies of social dilemmas have shown that while the existence of a sanctioning institution improves cooperation within groups, it also has a detrimental impact on group earnings in the short-run. Could the introduction of pre-play threats to punish have enough of a beneficial impact on cooperation, while not incurring the cost associated with actual punishment, so that they increase overall welfare? We report an experiment in which players can issue non-binding threats to punish others based on their contribution levels to a public good. After observing others’ actual contributions, they choose their actual punishment level. We find that threats increase the level of contributions significantly. Efficiency is improved, but only in the long run. However, the possibility of sanctioning differences between threatened and actual punishment leads to lower threats, cooperation and welfare, restoring them to levels equal to or below the levels attained in the absence of threats. <P>Les agents n’hésitent pas à sanctionner les resquilleurs dans des situations de dilemmes sociaux et cela a un effet positif sur la coopération. Toutefois, les mécanismes de sanction peuvent également générer des externalités négatives fortes sur les gains. Dans quelle mesure l’introduction de menaces non crédibles est-elle en mesure d’impacter positivement la coopération sans engendrer ces externalités négatives? Afin de répondre à cette question, nous avons réalisé une expérience dans laquelle les agents ont la possibilité d’annoncer combien ils seraient prêts à sanctionner les autres membres de leur groupe pour tous les montants possibles de contribution. Nous observons qu’introduire cette étape de menace a un effet positif sur la coopération. Toutefois, l’efficience en termes de gain n’est pas améliorée à long terme. La possibilité de sanctionner ceux qui punissent moins que ce qu’ils ont annoncé conduit les agents à réduire le niveau de menace et celui de la coopération. |
| Keywords: | Threats, cheap talk, sanctions, public good, experiment., Menaces, parler à bon marché, sanctions, bien public, expérience. |
| JEL: | C92 H41 D63 |
| Date: | 2011–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2011s-08&r=cwa |
| By: | P. B. Jauasundera |
| Abstract: | The relationship between the Central Bank and the Government is based not on a mere legal framework, but also on multifaceted political economic considerations. Although in many respects the Central Bank is independent, it has become an integral part of the Government, particularly in managing macroeconomic challenges. The recent financial crisis in most advanced countries has put the Central Banks and Governments on to one mission and to work in close collaboration. [60th Anniversary Oration of the Bank of Sri Lanka] |
| Keywords: | central bank, financial crisis, central bank-government relationship, South Asia, Sri Lanka |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:3520&r=cwa |
| By: | Catalina M. Torres Figuerola (Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB · Sa Nostra)); Nick Hanley (University of Stirling); Sergio Colombo (Agricultural Economics Department (IFAPA)) |
| Abstract: | A range of empirical approaches to representing preference heterogeneity have emerged in choice modelling. Researchers have been able to explore the differences which selection of a particular approach makes to welfare measures in a particular dataset, and indeed have been able to implement a number of tests for which approach best fits a particular set of data. However, the question as to the degree of error in welfare estimation from an inappropriate choice of empirical approach has not been addressed. In this paper, we use Monte Carlo analysis to address this question. Given the high popularity of both the random parameter logit (RPL) and latent class models among choice modellers, we examine the errors in welfare estimates from using the incorrect model to account for taste heterogeneity. Our main finding is that using an RPL specification with log-normally distributed preferences seems the best bet. |
| Keywords: | Preference heterogeneity, welfare measurement, accuracy, efficiency, choice experiments, Monte Carlo analysis |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdm:wpaper:2011/1&r=cwa |