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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2011‒01‒30
seventeen papers chosen by Bibhu Prasad Nayak Institute for Social and Economic Change |
| By: | Tansel, Aysit (Middle East Technical University); Bircan, Fatma (Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the male wage inequality and its evolution over the 1994-2002 period in Turkey by estimating Mincerian wage equations using OLS and quantile regression techniques. Male wage inequality is high in Turkey. While it declined at the lower end of the wage distribution it increased at the top end of wage distribution. Education contributed to higher wage inequality through both within and between dimensions. The within-groups inequality increased and between-groups inequality decreased over the study period. The latter factor may have dominated the former contributing to the observed decline in the male wage inequality over the 1994-2002. Further results are provided for the wage effects of experience, public sector employment, geographic location, firm size, industry of employment and their contribution to wage inequality. Recent increases in FDI inflows, openness to trade and global technological developments are discussed as contributing factors to the recent rising within-groups wage inequality. |
| Keywords: | wage inequality, returns to education, quantile regression, Turkey |
| JEL: | J31 J23 J24 I21 |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5417&r=cwa |
| By: | Hevia, Constantino; Loayza, Norman |
| Abstract: | This study illustrates the mechanisms linking national saving and economic growth, with the purpose of understanding the possibilities and limits of a saving-based growth agenda in the context of the Egyptian economy. This is done through a simple theoretical model, calibrated to fit the Egyptian economy, and simulated to explore different potential scenarios. The main conclusion is that if the Egyptian economy does not experience progress in productivity -- stemming from technological innovation, improved public management, and private-sector reforms -- then a high rate of economic growth is not feasible at current rates of national saving and would require a saving effort that is highly unrealistic. For instance, financing a constant 4 percent growth rate of gross domestic product per capita with no improvement in total factor productivity would require a national saving rate of around 50 percent in the first decade and 80 percent in 25 years. However, if productivity rises, sustaining and improving high rates of economic growth becomes viable. Following the previous example, a 2 percent growth rate of total factor productivity would allow a 4 percent growth rate of gross domestic product per capita with national saving rate in the realistic range of 20-25 percent of gross domestic product. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth,Access to Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Achieving Shared Growth |
| Date: | 2011–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5529&r=cwa |
| By: | Libman, Alexander; Vinokurov, Evgeny |
| Abstract: | While the regional economic integration encompassing the former Soviet Union (FSU) transpires to be inefficient, there appears to be a stronger interest in regionalism in smaller groups of more homogenous and geographically connected countries of the region, specifically, Central Asia. Using a new dataset, we find that although the economic links between the Central Asian countries are more pronounced than between that of the CIS in several key areas, this advantage has been disappearing fast over the last decade. In addition, the trend of economic integration of Central Asia strongly correlates to that of the CIS in general. Currently Central Asia should be treated as a sub-region of the post-Soviet world rather than a definite integration region.On the other hand, however, we find that Kazakhstan emerges as a new centre for regional integration, which can bear some potential for regionalism in Central Asia, and that there is an increasing trend towards greater economic interconnections with China in Central Asia. -- |
| Keywords: | regionalisation,economic integration,post-Soviet space,Central Asia |
| JEL: | F13 F15 P27 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fsfmwp:155&r=cwa |
| By: | Abdelghani, Echchabi; Osman, Sayid; Isares, Mahamad; Khalid, Sorhiran; Zulhilmi, Zulkifli |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses the issues surrounding the planned implementation of the Gulf Dinar among the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – the United Arab Emirates, the State of Bahrain, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Sultanate of Oman, the State of Qatar and the state of Kuwait. The paper will begin with laying down the foundation of attempting to draw any similarities and differences in terms of each country’s economic fundamentals. It will then assess the grand idea for a monetary union by looking at the pros and cons, intra-regional trade, labour and capital movement and the political will of all six GCC countries. Updated issues that may have hampered the introduction of the Gulf Dinar will then be analysed by looking at the economic convergence criteria and its implications. Comparison with the European Monetary Union will be made throughout the paper, where necessary. The paper ends will then come out with a number of suggestions that may improve the implementation of the Gulf Dinar. Lastly, the paper will discuss the political implications of the implementation of the Gulf Dinar as the sole currency for the Gulf countries. |
| Keywords: | Gulf Dinar; GCC; Khaleej Dinar; Monetary Union; European Union |
| JEL: | F0 F2 F1 E6 E4 |
| Date: | 2011–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:28245&r=cwa |
| By: | Bayraci, Selcuk; UNAL, GAZANFER |
| Abstract: | We proposed a continuous time ARMA known as CARMA(p,q) model for modeling the interest rate dynamics. CARMA(p,q) models have an advantage over their discrete time counterparts that they allow using Ito formulas and provide closed-form solutions for bond and bond option prices. We demonstrate the capabilities of CARMA(p,q) models by using Turkish short rate. The Turkish Republic Central Bank’s benchmark bond prices are used to calculate short-term interest rates between the period of 15.07.2006 and 15.07.2008. ARMA(1,1) model and CARMA(1,0) model are chosen as best suitable models in modeling the Turkish short rate. |
| Keywords: | Interest rate modeling; Continuous-time ARMA (CARMA)process; Lévy process |
| JEL: | C51 C01 |
| Date: | 2010–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:28091&r=cwa |
| By: | Tidiane Kinda (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Patrick Plane (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Marie-Ange Veganzones (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between firm-level productivity and investment climate (IC) for a large number of countries (23) and manufacturing industries (8). We first propose three measures of firms' productive performances: Labor Productivity (LP), Total Factor Productivity (TFP), and Technical Efficiency (TE). We reveal that enterprises in MENA perform in average poorly, compared to other countries of the sample. The exception is Morocco, whose various measures of firm-level productivity rank close to the ones of the most productive countries. We show at the same time that firms' competitiveness in MENA is handicapped by high Unit Labor Cost, compared to main competitors like China and India. The empirical analysis also reveals that the investment climate matters for firms productive performances. This is true (depending on the industry) for the quality of a large set of infrastructures, the experience and level of education of the labor force, the cost and access to financing, as well as to a lower extent, different dimensions of the government-business relation. These findings bear important policy implication by showing which dimension of the investment climate could help manufacturing firms in MENA to be more competitive on the world market. |
| Keywords: | cerdi |
| Date: | 2011–01–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00556700&r=cwa |
| By: | Zangeneh, Hamid |
| Abstract: | در سال گذشته مجلس شورای اسلامی با موافقت شورای نگهبان و ریاست جمهوری قانونی برای حذف یارانه ها به کالاهای مصرفی (بنزین ، گازوئيل، گاز، برق، آب، آرد، برنج، شير، شکر، روغن خوراکی، حمل و نقل هوائی و زمينی، و پست) تصویب و امسال به اجرا گذاشت. در این نوشته سعی خواهم کرد که منافع و معایب و پی آمدهای احتمالی آن را نشان دهم. در این نوشته سعی خواهم کرد که از بحث ليبرالی و نئو ليبرالی و چگونگی خصوصی سازی بر مبنای اصل ۴۴ قانون اساسی خودداری کنم و بحث امروز ما تحليلی است بر حذف یارانه های مستقيم به کالا های پایه ای و جایگزین کردن آن ها با یارانه های نقدی به شهروندان که برای جبران تورم پيش بينی شده است. |
| Keywords: | Iran; Subsidies; Iranian Economy; Inflationary expectation |
| JEL: | H2 E6 |
| Date: | 2011–01–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:28326&r=cwa |
| By: | Kangni Kpodar (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the determinants of labor market performance in Algeria. When the model is estimated with panel data on a sample of MENA and transition countries for 1995–2005, the results suggest that lower growth in labor productivity in Algeria is associated with higher unemployment than the sample average, though recent positive terms of trade shocks have helped Algeria reduce the differential. Labor market rigidities and labor taxation do not seem to explain why unemployment is higher in Algeria than in other countries. The results are robust to various panel econometric methods and instrumental variable estimates. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment;Labor market institutions;Macroeconomic shocks |
| Date: | 2011–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00556938&r=cwa |
| By: | Tiwari, Aviral; Mutascu, Mihai |
| Abstract: | This study is an attempt to examine the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Asian countries. We did our analysis in the panel framework during 1986 to 2008. We also examined the nonlinearities associated with foreign direct investment and exports in the economic growth process of Asian countries under consideration. We find that both foreign direct investment and exports enhance growth process. In addition, labour and capital also play an important role in the growth of Asian countries. Further, nonlinearity effects show that export-led growth is a better option of growth enhancing in Asian developing countries compared with foreign direct investment-led growth. |
| Keywords: | Growth; FDI; Connection; Effects; Panel analysis |
| JEL: | C23 F21 F43 |
| Date: | 2010–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:28172&r=cwa |
| By: | Marie-Ange Veganzones (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Ahmet Faruk Aysan (Department of Economics - Bogazici University); Zeynep Ersoy (Department of Economics - Bogazici University) |
| Abstract: | By using a simultaneous equations model, this paper establishes that the perceived quality of governance, which is measured by three different indicators “Quality of Administration”, “Public Accountability” and “Political Stability”, has a positive effect on the private investment decisions in the developing countries. Our model allows us to point out the fact that the mechanisms through which each type of indicator affects private investment are different. In addition to our primary result we also show that Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region could have attained a better private investment performance if it had reached a more advanced level of perceived institutions in last two decades. The low level of public accountability, among other governance deficiencies, was predominantly responsible for the deficiency in private investment in MENA. |
| Keywords: | cerdi |
| Date: | 2011–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00556940&r=cwa |
| By: | Popov, Vladimir |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact that development theories have had on development policies, and the inverse impact of actual successes and failures in the global South on development thinking. It is argued that development thinking is at the cross-roads. Development theories in postwar period went through a full circle – from Big Push and ISI to neo-liberal Washington consensus to the understanding that neither the former, nor the later really works in engineering successful catch-up development. Meanwhile, economic miracles were manufactured in East Asia without much reliance on development thinking and theoretical background – just by experimentation of the strong hand politicians. |
| Keywords: | Development theories; catch up growth; economic miracles; Washington consensus; import substitution; "Big push"; export orientation |
| JEL: | O11 O10 O43 P51 |
| Date: | 2010–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:28111&r=cwa |
| By: | Libman, Alexander |
| Abstract: | The absence or the presence of the resource curse is often explained by the specifics of political and institutional factors. The aim of this paper is to study this effect looking separately at economic and political institutions and at their interaction. Unlike most empirical papers in the literature, this paper considers the intra-national variation of institutional environment and access to political decision-making, using a dataset of the Russian regions. It shows that subnational variation of the quality of institutions indeed matters for the effects of resources. Economic institutions follow the traditional 'resource curse' results: resources have a negative impact on growth if the quality of institutions is low. On the other hand, increasing level of democracy has negative consequences for regions with substantial resources. Finally, this paper studies the differentiation between the resource-extracting regions and regions, exporting, but not extracting resources, in terms of the conditional resource curse. -- |
| Keywords: | subnational variation,conditional resource curse,democracy,economic institutions,transition economies |
| JEL: | O13 P28 Q48 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fsfmwp:154&r=cwa |
| By: | Patrick Guillaumont (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes aid allocation from a normative point of view. It attempts to design aid allocation criteria adapted to development goals and combining the principles of effectiveness and equity in a transparent and integrated framework. The common view about aid selectivity, which essentially refers to the quality of governance and policy indicators, is challenged for several reasons, in particular the weakness of the relationship between these indicators and aid effectiveness and the risk of countries facing exogeneous difficulties being left behind. Consistent with the lessons of the literature on aid effectiveness, new criteria for aid allocation are proposed, in particular that of structural vulnerability which has been shown to increase the marginal effectiveness of aid, because aid dampens its negative effects. Moreover, equity principles in aid allocation involve promoting equal opportunities (for economic growth and to reduce poverty), which means giving more aid to countries facing more severe structural handicaps. Thus a rational basis is given for allocating more aid to the LDCs (least developed countries), designated as low income countries suffering the most from structural handicaps. Using the Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI) set up for the identification of LDCs also leads to giving special attention to small and vulnerable countries which are not LDCs, and to fragile states as well. |
| Keywords: | cerdi |
| Date: | 2011–01–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00556806&r=cwa |
| By: | Julien Gourdon (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between trade liberalization and inequality has received considerable attention in recent years. The primary purpose of this paper is to present new results on the sources of wage inequalities in manufacturing taking into account South-South (S-S) trade. Globalization not only leads to increasing North-South (N-S) trade, but the direction and composition of trade has also changed. More trade is carried out between developing countries. We observe increasing wage inequality is more due to the South-South trade liberalization than to the classical trade liberalization with northern countries. The second purpose is to elucidate the link between the direction of trade and technological change, arguing that it might explain why we obtain different results for South-South trade and North-South trade on wage inequality. A part of this increasing wage inequality due to S-S trade comes from the development of N-S trade relationship in S-S trade which increases wage inequality in middle income developing countries. However the fact that S-S trade is more skill intensive sector oriented increase wage inequality for all developing countries. |
| Keywords: | international trade;Wage Inequality;Skill-biased technical change |
| Date: | 2011–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00557113&r=cwa |
| By: | Ahmet Faruk Aysan (Departement Economie - Université Bocarici); M.-K. Nabli (Departement Economie - Université Bocarici); Marie-Ange Veganzones (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the issue of the low level of private investment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with special emphasis on the role of governance. Based on the existing literature, we have categorized what types of governance institutions are more detrimental to entrepreneurial investments. We have then estimated a simultaneous model of private investment and governance quality where economic policies concurrently explain both variables. Our empirical results show that governance plays a significant role in private investment decisions. This result is particularly true in the case of “Administrative Quality” in the form of control of corruption, bureaucratic quality, investment-friendly profile of administration, and law and order, as well as for “Political Stability”. Evidence in favor of “Public Accountability” seems, however, less robust. Our estimations also stress that structural reforms -- such as financial development and trade openness – and human development affect private investment decisions directly, and/or through their positive impact on governance. These findings bring new empirical evidence on the subject of private investment in the developing world and in MENA countries in particular. |
| Keywords: | governance;private investment;institutions;Middle East and North Africa. |
| Date: | 2011–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00557250&r=cwa |
| By: | Mutuc, Maria; Pan, Suwen; Hudson, Darren |
| Abstract: | Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the Southern Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Orlando, FL, February 6-9, 2010 |
| Keywords: | Cotton, oil price, demand shocks, supply shocks, structural vector autoregression, Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization, |
| Date: | 2010–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ttudco:96675&r=cwa |
| By: | Daron Acemoglu; Michael Golosov; Aleh Tsyvinski; Pierre Yared |
| Date: | 2011–01–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cla:levarc:661465000000001171&r=cwa |