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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2011‒01‒23
ten papers chosen by Bibhu Prasad Nayak Institute for Social and Economic Change |
| By: | Nasrollahi Shahri, Nima |
| Abstract: | Following the successful experience of some developed counties in Power market restructuring and reforms, many developing countries have followed suit. Iran has for the last thirty years, since its Islamic revolution of 1979, had an economy dominated by the state, but has been pushed to take some legal steps towards private participation in the electricity sector so as to meet the rapidly rising electricity demand. This paper aims to appraise the stressfulness of Power market restructuring and privatization of electricity industry in Iran. A few years from the commencement of the reforms, the program can be assessed as realistically successful. However, there are plentiful challenges which need to be addressed through legislation. In this study, challenges to competition and Pitfalls of the reforms in the Iranian restructured electricity market will be reviewed. as well as this, a number of recommendations will be offered. |
| Keywords: | Power market restructuring; privatization;Islamic Republic of Iran |
| JEL: | N70 O13 Q4 |
| Date: | 2011–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:28047&r=cwa |
| By: | Yulia Raskina |
| Abstract: | A huge size of an oil market and its relation to economic growth and global wealth distribution make the oil an unique commodity. Oil price prediction is associated with plans of development of states as well as firms. Jumps in oil prices influence world economy similarly to natural disasters of planet scale. There is no surprise that a lot of publications are devoted to research of an oil market, modeling and forecasting of oil prices. This paper gives main facts describing an oil market and oil prices behavior. We give a review of modern literature devoted to an oil market and consider main approaches to modeling and forecasting oil prices. |
| Keywords: | oil price, modeling, forecasting |
| JEL: | O13 E3 |
| Date: | 2010–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eus:wpaper:ec0510&r=cwa |
| By: | Rosa García-Fernández (University of Granada); Daniel Gottlieb (National Insurance Institute and Ben-Gurion University, Israel); Federico Palacios-González (University of Granada) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we apply the methodology developed by García-Fernández and Palacios-González (2008,2009) based on multiresolution analysis, to the measurement of polarization to Israeli income data over the past decade. This methodology allows us, in contrast to other polarization measures, to detect sub-populations empirically as incomes concentrated around an optimal number of micropoles. Based on this procedure a polarization measure is developed, consisting of three components: an indicator of alienation and identification; the number of income classes and the distribution of the sizes of the groups. The proposed approach allows us to study polarization beyond mere income class membership, by including ethnic-cultural, individual, family and other demographic characteristics by means of a Probit analysis. The identification-alienation index fluctuated around two sub-periods - the first, showing an increase in identification-alienation from 2001 to 2004, coinciding with the harsh socio-economic policy during that period, and the second, showing a sharp decline, during the period of rapid economic growth (2005 to 2008). The increase in the size of the middle class - reducing polarization - and the decreasing number of classes - raising it - had offsetting effects on the overall index which has been relatively stable over the observation period. The Probit analysis reveals that belonging to the Haredi (Jewish Ultra-orthodox) community sharply raises their probability of belonging to the low income group. Being Arab yields a similar though less pronounced result. Furthermore, group-related characteristics of labor-force participation and small family size increase the chances of belonging to a higher income group. |
| Keywords: | Polarization, poverty, multiresolution analysis. |
| JEL: | H54 I21 I3 J1 O15 O53 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2011-191&r=cwa |
| By: | Céline Ferré (World Bank); Francisco H.G. Ferreira (World Bank); Peter Lanjouw (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence from eight developing countries of an inverse relationship between poverty and city size. Poverty is both more widespread and deeper in very small and small towns than in large or very large cities. This basic pattern is generally robust to choice of poverty line. The paper shows, further, that for all eight countries, a majority of the urban poor live in medium, small, or very small towns. Moreover, it is shown that the greater incidence and severity of consumption poverty in smaller towns is generally compounded by similarly greater deprivation in terms of access to basic infrastructure services, such as electricity, heating gas, sewerage, and solid waste disposal. The authors illustrate for one country—Morocco—that inequality within large cities is not driven by a severe dichotomy between slum dwellers and others. The notion of a single cleavage between slum residents and well-to-do burghers as the driver of urban inequality in the developing world thus appears to be unsubstantiated—at least in this case. Robustness checks are performed to assess whether the findings in the paper are driven by price variation across city-size categories, by the reliance on an income-based concept of well-being, and by the application of small area estimation techniques for estimating poverty rates at the town and city level. |
| Keywords: | poverty and city size, urban poverty, slums. |
| JEL: | I32 O18 R20 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2011-192&r=cwa |
| By: | Rabah Arezki (International Monetary Fund (IMF)); Markus Brückner (School of Economics, University of Adelaide) |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of oil rents on corruption and state stability exploiting the exogenous within-country variation of a new measure of oil rents for a panel of 30 oil-exporting countries during the period 1992 to 2005. We find that an increase in oil rents significantly increases corruption, significantly deteriorates political rights while at the same time leading to a significant improvement in civil liberties. We argue that these findings can be explained by the political elite having an incentive to extend civil liberties but reduce political rights in the presence of oil windfalls to evade redistribution and conflict. We support our argument documenting that there is a significant effect of oil rents on corruption in countries with a high share of state participation in oil production while no such link exists in countries where state participation in oil production is low. |
| Keywords: | oil rents; corruption; state stability; state participation |
| JEL: | C33 D73 D74 D72 H21 |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2011-07&r=cwa |
| By: | Zhang, ZhongXiang (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | While bringing positive impacts and benefits, cross-border infrastructure projects face additional challenges relative to national projects. Moreover, such projects involve a variety of technical, regulatory, institutional, and legal factors, and their obstacles constrain the development of cross-border infrastructure projects. This paper argues that proper technical specifications and well-functioning regulatory, institutional and legislative/legal frameworks with clearer lines of oversight are crucial to getting such projects off the ground in the first place and to ensure that they operate properly and reliably while minimizing their environmental impacts. It is pointed out that many issues in theses areas need to be addressed at the national level. The paper concludes that such domestic efforts, coupled with regional frameworks and arrangements wherever necessary, will promote the further development of cross-border infrastructure projects. |
| Keywords: | asia cross-border infrastructure; environmental impact; asia regional integration |
| JEL: | O13 Q01 Q43 Q48 Q53 Q54 Q56 Q58 R48 |
| Date: | 2011–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0261&r=cwa |
| By: | Raghav Gaiha; Katsushi S. Imai; Ganesh Thapa |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:sespap:1104&r=cwa |
| By: | Wendy Dobson (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the two-way relationship between China and the international economic system. China’s embrace of the global institutions and their rules and norms helped guide its spectacular economic growth and integration into the world economy. China’s impact on the global economic order is still an open question, however. Its sheer size and dynamism makes it a force to be reckoned with. So far its influence has been largely constructive but recent signs of assertiveness raise questions about the future. History matters to the answer. Memories of both historical pre-eminence and humiliation drive nationalism and assertiveness at the same time that China identifies with developing countries as a counterbalance rather than as a leader or enforcer of the global norms and rules. The paper evaluates China’s role in the regional and global economic institutions by applying this criterion of economic cooperation: is China willing to modify national policies in recognition of international economic interdependence? The evidence presented is mixed reflecting the complexities of China’s modernization and re-emergence. China actively supports the order in some forums, shows passivity in others yet in still others increasingly asserts its own interests regardless of the global rules. The paper draws conclusions and future implications of this new ‘normal’. |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ttp:iibwps:20&r=cwa |
| By: | Corneo, Giacomo |
| Abstract: | The transition from an oil-based to a knowledge-based economy requires that the Saudi population dramatically increases its level of human capital. This paper argues that noncognitive skills may be a bottleneck in the formation of human capital and proposes a policy to indirectly strengthen those skills. The core of the proposal is a government-financed gift to each Saudi citizen reaching adult age, the SSGY. -- |
| Keywords: | Saudi Arabia,Stakeholder Society,Value Systems,Economic Development |
| JEL: | O0 Z1 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201020&r=cwa |
| By: | Pierre-André Chiappori; Krislert Samphantharak; Sam Schulhofer-Wohl; Robert M. Townsend |
| Abstract: | We measure heterogeneity in risk aversion among households in Thai villages using a full risk-sharing model and complement the results with a measure based on optimal portfolio choice. Among households with relatives living in the same village, full insurance cannot be rejected, suggesting that relatives provide something close to a complete-markets consumption allocation. There is substantial heterogeneity in risk preferences estimated from the full-insurance model, positively correlated in most villages with portfolio-choice estimates. The heterogeneity matters for policy: Although the average household would benefit from eliminating village-level risk, less-risk-averse households who are paid to absorb that risk would be worse off. |
| JEL: | D12 D14 D53 D81 D91 G11 O16 |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16696&r=cwa |