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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2010‒12‒18
seventeen papers chosen by Bibhu Prasad Nayak Institute for Social and Economic Change |
| By: | Kaushik Basu |
| Abstract: | The paper argues that if the Chinese economy had failed, mainstream economics would have described this as completely predictable, given the extent and nature of involvement of the Chinese state in the functioning of markets and the economy. The fact that China has succeeded therefore should lead us to question our textbook doctrines of development. Much of this paper is presented as a comparative study of India, China and, briefly, other Asian nations. |
| Keywords: | asian nations, development, markets, growth, GDP, entrepreneurship, Japan, korea, India, China, chinese economy, economics, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:3277&r=cwa |
| By: | Murat G. Kýrdar (Middle East Technical University); Meltem Dayýoglu Tayfur (Middle East Technical University); Ýsmet Koç (Institute of Population Studies, Hacettepe University) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of the extension of compulsory schooling in Turkey from 5 to 8 years on the marriage and fertility behavior of teenage women in Turkey using the 2008 Turkish Demographic and Health Survey. We find that the new education policy reduces the probability of marriage and giving birth for teenage women substantially: the probability of marriage by age 16 is reduced by 44 percent and the probability of giving birth by age 17 falls by 36 percent. The effects of the education policy on the time until marriage and firstbirth persist beyond the completion of compulsory schooling. In addition, we find that the delay in the time until first-birth is driven by the delay in the time until marriage. After a woman is married, the rise in compulsory schooling years does not have an effect on the duration until her first-birth. Finally, we find that the education policy was more effective in reducing early marriage than a change in the Civil Code aimed for this purpose. |
| Keywords: | Age at marriage, Fertility, Education, Compulsory Schooling |
| JEL: | J12 J13 I20 D10 |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1035&r=cwa |
| By: | khnifer, mohammed |
| Abstract: | This paper dissects the balance sheet and business model of Gulf Finance, and scrutinizes the existence of a "pre-exit premium" in their activities – on top of the usual exit fees and/or performance fees. The study suggests that this practice (uncommon even for conventional Private Equity businesses – much less for an Islamic Private Equity house) was pioneered by GFH and it is this same practice that brought them down to their knees. |
| Keywords: | Islamic Banks; Private Equity; Premium; Islamic Finance; Shariah; sharia; sukuk; risk;default |
| JEL: | G24 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:27403&r=cwa |
| By: | Dima (Cristea), Stefana Maria; David, Delia; Păiuşan, Luminiţa |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to provide a synopsis of Islamic accounting characteristics as well as to identify some of the determinants which led to its specificity. It explores several aspects related to the Islamic accounting principles and its institutional framework. The cultural paradigm is viewed as a differentiating key factor in the elaboration and implementation of the accounting standards in the Islamic Word. Based on Hofstede approach, the elements of this paradigm are linked to the relative preference for IFRS adoption of different Islamic countries. From the proposed analysis, it emerges the image of Islamic Accounting’s complex nature, which may be seen as a distinct alternative to the principles and views promoted by IFRS. |
| Keywords: | Islam; accounting; IFRSs; culture; banking; AAOIFI |
| JEL: | M41 |
| Date: | 2010–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:27174&r=cwa |
| By: | Dogruel, Fatma; Dogruel, A. Suut |
| Abstract: | Istanbul and Adana are among the oldest and important industrial zones of Turkey. However, the shares of these two regions in the Turkish manufacturing sector substantially decreased after the year 1980. Initially, Adana was a center for the textile industry and the textile was the engine of the Turkish manufacturing sector. During 1980’s and 1990’s, textile industry gradually lost its dominance. Therefore, the change in the share of Adana can be explained by this phenomenon. On the other hand, manufacturing activities in Istanbul are highly diversified. The basic factor behind the decrease in the share of manufacturing sector of Istanbul is the deindustrialization policy implemented in this city during the last several decades. As a result of this policy some of the plants moved to neighborhoods of Istanbul. At the same time, constructions of new large scale plants were not allowed. In spite of the implementation of the deindustrialization policy, Istanbul still have largest share in the Turkish manufacturing sector. Considering the geographical proximity, in addition to direct effects on Istanbul, it is possible to expect that these policies may indirectly affect neighborhood regions. Employing the spatial statistical techniques, we analyze the growth of the manufacturing in Istanbul and its neighborhoods. The paper also focuses on the effects of the deindustrialization policy on the productivity and the firm size in Istanbul. |
| Keywords: | deindustrialization policy; productivity changes; firm size; shift-share analysis |
| JEL: | O18 R12 R38 |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:27070&r=cwa |
| By: | Sadek Boussena (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : UMR5252 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II); Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : UMR5252 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II) |
| Abstract: | The reforms and privatisation programmes of the 1990s structured the Russian oil industry around a few large national and private companies. This organisational structure poses some questions in respect of the Russian authorities will to take back the oil sector. Three factors may explain this evolution. First, the Russian authorities want to ensure the long-term future of the oil industry by encouraging new strategies in exploration. Second, the government can use the oil sector to support economic growth. This would involve sharing out the rent in a different manner. Third, and it is e new but important factor, the State intends to use Russia's oil power in this international relationships with the United States, Europe and Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, and India). The future of the Russian oil industry has some importance for the stability of the international oil market. Could Russia produce 12 Mb/d and challenging the dominant position of the Saudi Arabia? |
| Keywords: | Oil industry ; Russia ; Ownership rights ; Access to the natural resource ; State policy ; rule of law ; market reform ; Russian international policy |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00543200_v1&r=cwa |
| By: | Lukasz Rawdanowicz |
| Abstract: | Turkey is recovering from its most severe recession in several decades. The massive contraction in GDP is largely explained by the unprecedented collapse in foreign demand, which was aggravated in Turkey by negative confidence effects and structural problems with competitiveness prior to the crisis. In contrast to previous recessions, Turkey could afford counter–cyclical polices and the financial markets proved resilient. During the crisis, the authorities cut interest rates significantly and promptly and implemented fiscal stimulus. This truly novel experience was possible thanks to a better macroeconomic position, a sounder monetary and fiscal policy framework, and better financial market regulations. The immediate policy challenge is to gradually remove policy stimulus and address medium–term stability considerations in a way that does not jeopardise the recovery. This paper relates to the 2010 OECD Economic Review of Turkey (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/turkey).<P>La crise 2008-09 dans la Turquie : La performance, les réponses politiques et défis pour le maintien de récupération<BR>La Turquie se remet de sa récession la plus grave depuis plusieurs décennies. La contraction massive du PIB s'explique en grande partie par l'effondrement sans précédent de la demande étrangère, qui a été aggravée par des effets de confiance négatives et des problèmes structurels de compétitivité avant la crise. Contrairement aux récessions précédentes, la Turquie a pu se permettre des politiques contra-cycliques et des marchés financiers ont bien résisté. Pendant la crise, les autorités ont pu rapidement et sensiblement réduit les taux d'intérêt et mis en oeuvre des mesures de relance budgétaire. Cette expérience a été vraiment nouvelle et elle a été possible grâce à une meilleure position macroéconomique, un cadre monétaire et budgétaire plus sain, et une meilleure réglementation des marchés financiers. Le défi immédiat de politique économique est de supprimer progressivement la politique de relance et de prendre en compte les considérations de stabilité à moyen terme de manière à ne pas compromettre la reprise. Ce document se rapporte à l’Étude économique de Turquie de l’OCDE, 2010, (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/turquie). |
| Keywords: | public finances, fiscal consolidation, Turkey, recession, counter-cyclical, outlook, finances publiques, perspectives, Turquie, assainissement budgétaire, récession, politique contre cyclique |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E5 E6 |
| Date: | 2010–12–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:819-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Hazama, Yasushi |
| Abstract: | Why is it that state-centered recognition of the public sphere has prevailed in Turkey during the last decade? The frame analysis of the “public sphere†discourse during the 2002-2009 period revealed that the contingency of the discourse on the Islamic headscarf issue discouraged an essential understanding of the authentic public sphere. Secularists framed the public sphere as a politically neutral arena that must be protected by the state. By contrast, pro-Islamists initially counter-framed the public sphere positively, in line with the Habermasian definition. Yet, in the face of stiff opposition from the secularists, the pro-Islamists came to adopt a negative counter-frame implying that the public sphere impinged on the freedom of wearing a headscarf. As a result, both the secularists’ and pro-Islamists’ frames entrenched the general recognition of the state-centered public sphere in Turkish society. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Social problems, Social conditions, Public administration, Urban societies, Community, Public sphere, Discourse analysis |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper262&r=cwa |
| By: | Rauf Gönenç; Lukasz Rawdanowicz |
| Abstract: | In the 2000s, Turkey has enjoyed rapid catching–up. This was possible despite the adverse business environment, as the semi–formal and informal economy had a significant contribution to the expansion of the private sector. Productivity growth was strong, but labour utilisation remained very low. Looking forward, higher employment and productivity growth will not be possible without profound regulatory reforms of minimum wages, severance payments, social security contributions and flexible job contracts. These reforms have been discussed for a long time, but political obstacles prevented implementing them. Resolving this deadlock calls for advancing an integrated strategy of labour reforms and formalisation via experimenting with new regulation on the voluntary basis to identify the most successful solutions that can be later rolled out to the whole economy. Moreover, Turkey has to ease further anti–competitive product market regulations by reducing barriers to entrepreneurship and foreign direct investment, and by limiting government involvement in business. A successful implementation of these reforms would allow Turkey to enjoy golden decades. This paper relates to the 2010 OECD Economic Review of Turkey (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/turkey).<P>Réformer les réglementations pour débloquer la croissance à long-terme de la Turquie<BR>Dans les années 2000 la Turquie a réalisé un rattrapage rapide. Cela a été possible malgré un cadre réglementaire défavorable, grâce à des activités semi-formelles et informelles qui ont considérablement contribué à l'expansion du secteur privé. La croissance de la productivité a été forte, mais l'utilisation du travail reste très faible. A l'avenir l'emploi et la productivité ne pourront pas croitre plus vite sans de profondes réformes du salaire minimum, des indemnités de licenciement, des cotisations de sécurité sociale et des contrats de travail flexibles. Ces réformes ont été discutées depuis longtemps mais des obstacles politiques ont empêché leur mise en oeuvre. Pour dépasser ce blocage, une stratégie intégrée de réformes du marché du travail et de formalisation est nécessaire, via l'expérimentation de nouvelles règlementations sur la base du volontariat, afin d'identifier de meilleures solutions qui peuvent être progressivement étendues à l'ensemble de l'économie. En outre, la Turquie devrait réduire les réglementations anti-concurrentielles dans les marchés de produits en diminuant les obstacles à l'entreprenariat et à l'investissement étranger direct, et en restreignant l?intervention du gouvernement dans les affaires. La mise en oeuvre réussie de ces réformes permettrait à la Turquie de bénéficier de brillantes décennies de croissance. Ce document se rapporte à l’Étude économique de Turquie de l’OCDE, 2010 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/turquie). |
| Keywords: | growth, regulation, product markets, Turkey, political economy, reforms, labour market, croissance, réglementation, marché du travail, marchés de produits, Turquie, économie politique, réformes |
| JEL: | D7 J2 J3 J4 L5 O4 P5 |
| Date: | 2010–12–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:821-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Malul Miki (Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Israel); Rosenboim Mosi (Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Israel, The College of Management Academic Studies); Shavit Tal (The College of Management Academic Studies, Israel) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the role of employment protection when powerful external crises reduce demand for products. We first present a theoretical framework that shows that employment protection has a U-shaped effect on abnormal unemployment during a negative exogenous shock to an economy. Using data from the 33 OECD countries, we analyze how the level of employment protection affected the stability of unemployment rates during the recent global economic crisis. The results suggest that countries with an intermediate level of employment protection will have more stable unemployment rates during a world crisis. The policy implication of our paper is that countries should seek a medium level of employment protection that may act as an automatic stabilizer of the economy on the macro level. |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bgu:wpaper:1010&r=cwa |
| By: | Kisswani, Khalid |
| Abstract: | Two oil price shocks changed the pattern of cheap oil. The first was the Arab embargo on oil exports in 1973. Oil prices rose five fold. In 1978, the second was the fall of Shah Iran. Prices soared to $80-$100 a barrel in today‘s prices. In 1960, OPEC was established and since then it has been a considerable political and economical force in the oil market. Two thirds of the world‘s oil reserves belong to OPEC members. OPEC is accused of being responsible for most of the price increases due to their production cuts and market power. This paper provides a general framework to examine the role of OPEC in affecting oil prices through the extracted quantities. A mathematical model is developed to explore the objective function of OPEC, which includes economic and political considerations. The idea is that OPEC members consider both the political support of their citizens and profits when determining oil extraction rates. This support is represented by a ―harm function‖ which was added to the objective function of OPEC. The solution of the model lends some support for inclusion of this harm function, through which OPEC benefits from the cuts in production aimed at harming the western countries. For this harm function to be meaningful empirically, OPEC members should have a high harm indicator, αt. With high harm indicator values, OPEC harms itself financially. The results suggest that OPEC appears to be accepting considerable monetary setbacks to appease its citizens‘ taste for harming the West. At different discount rates, the monetary losses range from about 10-20%. Solving the mathematical model required estimation of the residual demand that OPEC faces plus the cost function that applies to OPEC production. This paper reports the results of these estimations. |
| Keywords: | OPEC; optimal control; cost estimation; demand estimation; resource economics |
| JEL: | Q32 C51 Q41 C20 Q31 C02 |
| Date: | 2010–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:27030&r=cwa |
| By: | Bensassi, Sami; Márquez-Ramos, Laura; Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada |
| Abstract: | According to recently developed models of trade with imperfect competition and heterogeneous firms, lower trade costs increase bilateral trade not only through a rise in the mean value of individual shipments (the intensive margin of trade), but also through an increase in the number of exporting firms (the extensive margin of trade). The main aim of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence of the effects of the Euro-Mediterranean (EuroMed) agreements on both margins of trade. Using highly disaggregated export data for four North African countries (Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia) and two Middle East countries (Jordan, Lebanon) over the period from 1995 to 2008, we estimate the impact of the EuroMed agreements on both trade margins and we provide empirical evidence of the validity of the theoretical predictions. Results indicate that only the North African countries enjoyed a positive and significant effect of the Barcelona process on their exports to the four biggest countries in the European Union. |
| Keywords: | Euro-Mediterranean agreements; trade integration; intensive and extensive margins. |
| JEL: | F10 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:27117&r=cwa |
| By: | Basher, Syed Abul; Elsamadisy, Elsayed Mousa |
| Abstract: | Applying nonstationary panel data econometric methods, this paper analyzes the major sources and transmission of inflation in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the 1980-2008 period. We argue that, in GCC countries, money is essentially demand determined, so that the high collinearity between money and aggregate demand indicators such as non-hydrocarbon output is expected and should be dealt with accordingly. Several important results emerge from the analysis. First, the money supply stands out as a significant determinant of inflation both in short- and long-run. Both foreign prices and the nominal effective exchange rate are shown to be more successful in explaining inflation in the long-run than the short-run. The half-life of the speed of adjustment reveals that it takes about 2.9 years for 50% of a shock to the long-run equilibrium to dissipate. An implication of our results is the case it makes for more sovereign monetary policies in GCC countries. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Exchange rates; Oil price; Panel data. |
| JEL: | C32 E31 H30 E50 C33 |
| Date: | 2010–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:27348&r=cwa |
| By: | YILMAZ, TOLGAHAN |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the performance of global minimum variance (GMV) portfolios constructed by DCC and DECO-GARCH are compared to that of GMV portfolios constructed by sample covariance and constant correlation methods in terms of reduced volatility. Also, the performance of GMV portfolios are tested against that of equally weighted and cap weighted portfolios. Portfolios are constructed from the stocks listed in Istanbul Stock Exchange 30 index (hereafter, ISE-30). The results show that GMV portfolios constructed by DCC-GARCH outperformed the other portfolios. In addition, the performance of GMV portfolios estimated by DCC and DECO-GARCH methods are improved by extending calibration period from three years to four years and lowering rolling window term from one week to one day, while the performances of other GMV portfolios decrease. It shows the effect of time varying variance and dynamic correlations on portfolio optimization at Turkish stock market. |
| Keywords: | DCC-GARCH; DECO-GARCH; GMV portfolio |
| JEL: | C32 C51 G11 C61 |
| Date: | 2010–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:27314&r=cwa |
| By: | Nadeem, Azhar |
| Abstract: | Mudaraba is designed to meet the need of poor Muslim microentrepreneurs for financial services that comply with their religious belief of interest prohibition. It is a partnership where one partner provides capital to the other for investing in a commercial enterprise. The profit-sharing ratio is agreed by the parties at the beginning of the contract, which can be terminated by either party after giving due notice. The article explains the assumptions and terms and conditions of the Mudaraba model, and lists challenges involved. Any bank engaging in Mudaraba transactions should meet the following legal obligations: •Contract details should be clearly documented; •Microfinance program should bear the entire financial risk without demanding collateral; •Profit-sharing ratios as a percentage of profit should be agreed upon before execution of contract; •Microentrepreneur has full control over business management, while supervision is the right of the microfinance program. |
| Keywords: | Microfinance; Islamci Microfinance; Non profit; Mudaraba |
| JEL: | D14 |
| Date: | 2010–10–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:27194&r=cwa |
| By: | Steven Poelhekke; Frederick van der Ploeg |
| Abstract: | A new and extensive panel of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) at the sector level is used to estimate the determinants of non-resource and resource FDI. Since FDI is I(1), we estimate panel errorcorrection models of FDI with spatial lags for FDI and market potential. Our main result is that subsoil assets boost resource FDI, but crowd out non-resource FDI. The effect on non-resource FDI dominates, so that aggregate FDI is less in resource-rich countries. Spatial lags aggravate this crowding out of nonresource FDI. In addition, we find that (i) resource FDI is mainly vertical whereas other FDI is of the export-fragmentation variety; (ii) trade openness, free trade agreements and institutional quality do not impact non-resource FDI but institutional quality does have a positive effect on resource FDI; and (iii) the short-run dynamics comes mostly from shocks to FDI itself. Our main and ancillary results are robust to different measures of resource reserves and the oil price and to allowing for sample selection bias. |
| Keywords: | outward sector level FDI; subsoil assets; co-integration tests; spatial econometrics; hydrocarbon reserves; external margin; sample selection bias |
| JEL: | C21 C33 F21 Q33 |
| Date: | 2010–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:266&r=cwa |
| By: | Gilbert E. Metcalf; Catherine Wolfram |
| Abstract: | We analyze how a country's political institutions affect oil production within its borders. We find a pronounced negative relationship between political openness and volatility in oil production, with democratic regimes exhibiting less volatility than more autocratic regimes. This relationship holds across a number of robustness checks including using different measures of political conditions, instrumenting for political conditions and using several measures of production volatility. Political openness also affects other oil market outcomes, including total production as a share of reserves. Our findings have implications both for interpreting the role of institutions in explaining differences in macroeconomic development and for understanding world oil markets. |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tuf:tuftec:0758&r=cwa |