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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2010‒11‒06
seventeen papers chosen by Bibhu Prasad Nayak Institute for Social and Economic Change |
| By: | Korap, Levent; Aslan, Özgür |
| Abstract: | In this article, we re-examine the empirical validity of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory for the Turkish economy. For this purpose, an empirical model is constructed using some contemporaneous estimation techniques such as multivariate co-integration and vector error correction methodology. Our estimation results reveal that the PPP can strongly be supported as a long-run stationary steady-state relationship for the Turkish economy. |
| Keywords: | Purchasing power parity; Co-integration; Turkish economy; |
| JEL: | C32 F41 F31 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:26273&r=cwa |
| By: | Sami Bibi (University of Laval); AbdelRahmen El Lahga |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we show how reliable datasets can be generated to perform distributional analysis in the Arab region, based on a useful procedure of desegregating grouped data published by official statistical agencies. Secondly, using accessible raw micro data and synthetic datasets, we rely on the existing conventional set of inequality indices to assess the degree of disparity and its evolution over time in the Arab region. The paper fills in an important gap of knowledge on data access and the level and patterns of inequality in the Arab region. |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:561&r=cwa |
| By: | Ali Berker (Abant Ýzzet Baysal University) |
| Abstract: | During the last 30 years, Turkey has undergone profound economic and social transformations, including fundamental shifts from the state-oriented economy to the market-oriented economy; large scale modernization investments in telecommunication and transportation services; and the low-intensity ongoing armed-conflict concentrated in the country’s Southeastern Region. For such a period, using the 1990 and 2000 Turkish Censuses, I evaluated the labor market consequences of internal migration that might have been sparked by such significant economic and social changes. Overall, the results suggest that provinces with a higher share of recent migrants may observe decreases in their native population’ labor market opportunities. While this adverse impact of the recent migrant inflows remains to be robust, it exhibits heterogeneity with respect to the skill level of natives, as well as for the labor market outcomes of different native and migrant groups. |
| Keywords: | Conditional CAPM |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1029&r=cwa |
| By: | Akram Esanov; Karlygash Khuralbayeva |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how Kazakhstan handled key decisions in resource management during the 2000-2008 period and whether resource revenues were harnessed for sustained growth. We found that the hydrocarbon sector served as an engine of strong economic growth in the country by boosting domestic demand and propelling growth in such non-tradable sectors as construction and financial sector. In addition, our analysis suggests that prudent macroeconomic policies had been pursued by the government with more than two-thirds of oil revenues being saved in the Oil Fund. Notwithstanding sound macroeconomic policies, the private sector remained under-regulated and took excessive risks by over-borrowing abroad, which led to consumption boom. The government lacked policies aimed at discouraging excessive risk taking behavior of the private sector, which greatly jeopardized the sustainability of Kazakhstan’s growth potential and the government’s prudence. We refer to this phenomenon as a Ricardian curse of the resource windfall. |
| Keywords: | Kazakhstan, Riccardian curse, resource boom, growth potential |
| JEL: | Q32 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:043&r=cwa |
| By: | Ankita Mishra; Ranjan Ray |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates and compares multidimensional deprivation in India and China during the 1990s and beyond. The exercise is conducted on two micro data sets that have been tailor made for this study. It departs from the recent comparisons between India and China that are based on macro aggregates such as trade, investment and growth rates and undertakes a systematic and comprehensive analysis of living standards in the two countries based on unit record data. The paper disaggregates the overall deprivation by categories, and compares the deprivation distribution between the two countries. This study reports that the high growth rates did not translate into an unambiguous improvement in living standards in either country. Deprivation is still unacceptably high in some categories. While rural deprivation is much higher in India than in China, they face similar levels of urban deprivation. Special attention is paid to a comparison of child health, and its link with mother’s health, between the two countries. China outperforms India on child health with lower incidence of stunting and wasting. While both countries still record high rates of child stunting in the new millennium, wasting is much more of an issue in India than in China. The study provides evidence of strong link between deprivation in access to basic facilities, such as drinking water and clean fuel for cooking, and child undernourishment. The Indian evidence suggests that children of undernourished mothers are at high risk from stunting and wasting, but this does not extend to China. Notwithstanding evidence of decline in mother’s BMI over this period, China outperforms India on women’s health as well. |
| Keywords: | Multi Dimensional Deprivation, Stunting, BMI, Anaemic Rates,Decomposability |
| JEL: | I10 I31 I32 O1 |
| Date: | 2010–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2010-53&r=cwa |
| By: | Bernard Gauthier; Albert Zeufack |
| Abstract: | Oil has been a curse for Cameroon, one of the potentially richest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the discovery of oil in 1977 and initial prudent management accentuated hopes, Cameroon has become an example of growth collapse. GDP contracted by 5% on average per year, a combined 27% over the 8-year period, dropping per capita income in 1993 to half of its 1986 level. In 2007, Cameroon was still poorer than in 1985. Using recently available datasets on oil production, the World Bank’s Adjusted Savings data, and building on recent literature (Cossé 2006), this paper estimates the oil rent effectively captured by Cameroon since 1977 and analyzes factors explaining the aggregate savings and spending decisions from the oil rent that led to such poor development outcomes. The paper finds that Cameroon may have captured a sizeable portion of its oil rent – around 67%. However, only about 46% of total oil revenues accruing to the government between 1977 and 2006 may have been transferred to the budget. The remaining 54% are not properly accounted for. The paper argues that poor governance is the culprit. The decision to “save” Cameroon’s oil revenues abroad proves to have been sub-optimal given the lack of a transparent and accountable framework to manage them and the poor governance record of the country.The lack of transparency and accountability in oil revenues management has translated into a failure to engage in medium to long term development planning for the country. Donors have been pushing for improved governance and transparency in the oil sector for the past 20 years without significant success. The EITI, while a good initiative, is also in high risk of capture. The paper suggests changes in the incentives structure to reduce collusion and improve governance. |
| Keywords: | Cameroon, growth collapse, GDP, Adjusted Savings data, oil rent, poor governance |
| JEL: | Q32 O41 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:038&r=cwa |
| By: | Neela Mukherjee |
| Abstract: | Agriculture technology is undergoing rapid changes across the globe and Asian countries such as India, China, Bangladesh and many other countries are undertaking different policy initiatives to help farmers to build capacity to adopt new/improved technology towards bettering farm production, reducing poverty, human development and improving food security. The latest experience, during the last five years in three Asian countries – India, China and Bangladesh, provides interesting basis for cross-country comparison of rural areas, given similar socioeconomic context of project areas and infusion of agriculture technological change. Though project instruments of such changes and their strategies/approaches are quite different, such a comparative study helps to understand the actions/impacts of such differential strategies on the ground and helps to provide a platform to analyse cross-country achievements, constraints and lessons learnt in the sphere of agriculture technology and rural development. This paper compares the strategies, capacity building processes and outcomes/impacts of three projects during the period 2005-10. |
| Keywords: | Asia, agriculture technology, India, china, Bangladesh, policy initiatives, rural development, agricultural development, rural, cross-country achievements |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:3098&r=cwa |
| By: | Ila Patnaik; Ajay Shah (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine capital account openness and exchange rate flexibility in 11 Asian economies. Asia has made slow progress in de jure capital account openness, but has made much more progress in de facto capital account openness. While there has been a gradual increase in exchange rate flexibility, most Asian economies continue to have largely inflexible exchange rates. This combination of advancing de facto capital account integration without greater exchange rate flexibility has led to procyclical monetary policy, when capital flows are procyclical. This paper emphasises the need for a consistent monetary policy framework. |
| Keywords: | capital account openness, exchange rate flexibility, Asia, capital account integration, monetary policy |
| JEL: | E40 E60 F41 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:2314&r=cwa |
| By: | Cielito F. Habito |
| Abstract: | The primary objective of this research is to identify key factors that explain the observed wide variation in patterns of inclusiveness of economic growth—defined here as gross domestic product (GDP) growth that leads to significant poverty reduction—in Asia. In exploring this relationship, this study goes beyond defining poverty by the income or expenditure yardstick alone, but examines a more holistic measure of poverty that considers its multidimensional nature. [ADBI Working Paper 145] |
| Keywords: | primary objective, research, economic growth, gross domestic product (GDP), |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:3076&r=cwa |
| By: | Naohiko Yahaba (Asia-Japan Research Centre) |
| Abstract: | The world's oil consumption has been increasing for more than a century with a few exceptions. However, there would be a possibility that the recent increase in oil consumption in developing countries such as China and India tighten the long term oil market. Since the exact amount of oil reserves is unknown, it is difficult to predict when the ultimate decrease in oil production will come. However, for the last two decades, the amount of oil consumption per year has surpassed the amount of oil reserves newly found. Therefore, the possibility of ultimate decrease in oil production may increase. This paper examines the impact of the decrease in oil production on major economies using a computable general equilibrium model. Under the simulations in this paper, the oil exporting economies increase their GDPs, the utilities and the terms of trade. The oil importing regions, especially in newly industrialised and developing regions, decrease their GDPs, utilities and the terms of trade. All industry sectors decrease their world output. Among industry sectors, oil industry affects most and the industry sectors which use large amount of oil such as petroleum industry and chemical industry decrease its outputs significantly. |
| Keywords: | oil consumption, oil reserves, oil shock, computable general equilibrium model |
| JEL: | Q30 Q43 C68 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:energy:2329&r=cwa |
| By: | Subhani, Dr.Muhammad Imtiaz; Osman, Ms.Amber; Khokhar, Rabbia |
| Abstract: | World trade has grown rapidly. Several factors are highlighted by literature as a driving force behind the growth of world trade. Reduction in barriers to trade is one of them. A comprehensive empirical investigation is carried to ascertain the trade reducing and increasing effect of barriers to trade which are also known determinants of trade. The modified gravity model developed in this study analyses the effect of GDP, distance,remittances, FDI, transportation cost, exchange rate, inflation, population, import and export on trade flows. The study revealed that the population, import and transportation cost, distance, Tariff imposed by trading partner, FDI and Population of trading country are the determinants and significantly affect exports of developing economies. The study also ascertain that transportation cost, distance, population of trading partner, FDI of both trading countries and remittances of trading partner are the determinants that have major impact on import of developing nations. |
| Keywords: | International Trade; Exports; Imports; Gravity Model; Trade barriers |
| JEL: | F13 F23 O24 B22 N7 A10 P33 R41 M21 |
| Date: | 2010–10–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:26179&r=cwa |
| By: | Asadul Islam; Russell Smyth |
| Abstract: | This study examines the economic returns to beauty and unprotected sex in the commercial sex market in Bangladesh. The results show that there is a beauty premium for commercial sex work, but it is within the bounds of the economic returns to beauty for women in occupations that do not involve sex work. We find that there is an earnings premium for sex workers who sell unprotected sex and that more attractive sex workers charge a higher premium for unprotected sex. This result is consistent with either attractive sex workers having more bargaining/negotiating power or attractiveness and risky sex being complements for males in the presence of attractive women. The results are robust to a number of empirical specifications including controls for sex workers’ disposition, client characteristics and a number of fixed effects to control for other attributes of sex workers and their clients. |
| Date: | 2010–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2010-41&r=cwa |
| By: | Anil. K Gupta |
| Abstract: | Recent economic meltdown triggered worldwide search for viable options for generating employment through entrepreneurial opportunities for the youth. Not many countries succeeded although India has fared much better. In this paper the author discuss the challenges faced by India soon after meltdown and the strategies that could work. While many ideas have still potential to influence the pedagogy and the content of educational programmes in the short term, some have value for longer term entrepreneurial revolution. [W.P. No. 2010-10-02] |
| Keywords: | economic, entrepreneurial, ideas, potential |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:3081&r=cwa |
| By: | Regina M. Abrami (Harvard Business School); Yu Zheng (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | Why have China's petrochemical and steel industries behaved so differently in seeking trade protection through antidumping measures? We argue that the patterning of antidumping actions is best explained in terms of the political economy of economic restructuring in pillar industries and its effect on industry structures. In the petrochemical industry, the shift toward greater horizontal consolidation and vertical integration reduces the collective action problems associated with antidumping petitions among upstream companies. It also weakens downstream companies lobbying in favor of the general protection of highly integrated conglomerates. In the steel industry, by contrast, national industrial policy in the absence of exogenous economic shocks fails to weaken local state interests sufficiently. Fragmented upstream and downstream channels instead persist, with strong odds against upstream suppliers waging a successful defense of material interests. |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hbs:wpaper:11-042&r=cwa |
| By: | Punabantu, Siize |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at some of the fundamental ideas in contemporary economics such as the basic economic problem, opportunity cost and allocation a person is expected to encounter when they are first introduced to economic theory. It attempts to explain how the manner in which these concepts are interpreted and disseminated in mainstream economics may be counter productive to the capacity of economics to develop new ways of countering scarcity. It aligns these concepts with recent unrest in Europe caused by austerity measures. The paper looks at the capacity for contemporary economics to emerge from a cocoon spun from cobwebs of antiquated thought and inhibitions in order for it find extraordinary solutions for the extraordinary economic challenges the world faces today. Accelerated economic growth in an EOS model is applied to the economy of a developed country to illustrate the faster pace at which the model can transform stock markets and economic conditions as well as an illustration of how the current model may not exploit the full potential for market capitalisation businesses could have. In addition to this the paper addresses the ability of workers to take control of their finances through a concept concerning the capitalisation of their labour. A labour capitalisation fund allows employees to have their projected lifetime earnings paid up front and invested for the duration of their working life. It improves the relationship between capital and labour, frees up financial resources for governments and creates a new lucrative financial product for banks and other institutions in the financial services industry. |
| Keywords: | Scarcity; banking; credit creation; labour; banks; market capitalisation; resource creation; implosion; wobble effect; unemployment; economic thought; poverty; wealth; equation of exchange; market efficiency; stock market; money; price; mark-up; cost plus pricing; rationality; operating level economics; economic growth; expenditure fallacy; paradox. |
| JEL: | A20 J81 J65 A11 E24 J63 J68 J50 |
| Date: | 2010–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:26017&r=cwa |
| By: | Mark Stoughton; Anbumozhi Venkatachalam (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The global economic slowdown has again highlighted the vulnerability of export-led development models and economies to downturns in export markets. Economic deepening or “rebalancing” with an emphasis on service-sector development should be—and is becoming—one long-term response to the crisis by Asia’s emerging economies. In the long run, sustainable economic development will depend in part on achieving a “green” trajectory of service sector development, in which services help green the “product economy.” In the short run, however, can services help address short- and medium-term challenges of emergence and recovery from the crisis—particularly those of at least resuming historic rates of poverty alleviation and inclusive growth? Meeting these challenges will require that export sectors deal successfully with challenging market conditions. There is a class of closely related business-to-business services which act to green the product economy, and which would improve the competitiveness of export sectors and husband scarce public resources by optimizing the efficiency of infrastructure utilization. These are functional procurement/efficiency services, which transform procurement of environmentally problematic goods and services—such as waste disposal, energy, chemicals, and transport—into performance-based services in which service providers profit by increasing the customer’s eco-efficiency. Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) are the best-known of these service models. These services appear to have strong potential among the larger, more sophisticated institutions and commercial and industrial enterprises in developing Asian states, particularly in Asia’s more advanced developing economies. |
| Keywords: | global economic slowdown, export-led development models, sustainable economic development, Energy Service Companies, Asia |
| JEL: | L80 L88 O14 O19 O25 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:energy:2320&r=cwa |
| By: | Tigran Melkonyan (Department of Resource Economics, University of Nevada, Reno); Michael Taylor (Department of Resource Economics, University of Nevada, Reno) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes regulatory design for agroecosystem management on public rangelands. We present an informational and institutional environment where three of the most prominent regulatory instruments on public rangelands – input regulation, cost-sharing/taxation, and performance regulation – can be defined and compared. The paper examines how the optimal regulation is shaped by the informational and institutional constraints faced by federal land management agencies (FLMAs) such as the Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Forest Service. These constraints include informational asymmetries between ranchers and FLMAs, limitations on FLMAs’ ability to monitor ranch-level ecological conditions, and constraints on FLMAs’ actions due to budget limitations and restrictions on the level of penalties they can assess. The theoretical model extends the previous work of Baker (1992), Prendergast (2002), and Hueth and Melkonyan (2009) by considering optimal regulation by a budget-constrained regulator in an environment of asymmetric information and moral hazard. |
| Keywords: | Agri-Environmental Policy, Asymmetric Information, Budget-Constrained Regulation |
| JEL: | D86 Q18 Q20 |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unr:wpaper:10-007&r=cwa |