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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Chaisse, Julien; Chakraborty, Debashis; Mukherjee, Jaydeep |
| Abstract: | Since mid-nineties, India’s foreign exchange reserves (FER) – both nominal and real adjusted for price level – started growing considerably and reached a new peak of US$ 251985 million in 2008-09. The fact that such unprecedented accumulation of FER build-up has materialized despite India's balance of payment on its current account being mostly negative, has raised debates on the major potential challenges for Indian Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), in case they come to existence. Using the two measures of reserve adequacy - the ratio of reserves to short-term external debt and ratio of reserves to broad money – the study indicates “too much” of reserves build-up for the Indian economy particularly since 2002, suggesting thereby that India has substantial amount of surplus reserves. Given the fact that India’s current account balance is worsening for the last couple of years, it could be noted that the increase in India’s FER has been caused by speculative capital inflows on the capital account. In other words, the reserve is very much exposed to potential sudden outflows by foreign investors and any decision should be taken keeping this perspective into account. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Exchange |
| JEL: | F31 |
| Date: | 2010–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:22873&r=cwa |
| By: | Ranja Sengupta; Ashotosh Sharma |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of services trade liberalization under the currently negotiated EU-India FTA on women’s lives in India and tries to delineate the concern areas. Relevant sectors of interest are also studied with the two indicators; employment and access, in view. Some gender sensitive policy options are discussed at the end.[Paper IV] |
| Keywords: | trade, liberalisation, credit, health, education, water, energy, jobs, incomes, social relationships, FDI, wages, policy opinions |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2499&r=cwa |
| By: | D. Kumara Charyulu; Subho Biswas |
| Abstract: | The present paper focuses mainly on the issues like economics and efficiency of organic farming visà - vis conventional farming in India. Four states namely Gujarat, Maharashtra, Punjab and U.P were purposively selected for the present study. Similarly, four major crops i.e., cotton, sugarcane, paddy and wheat were chosen for comparison. A model based nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was used for analyzing the efficiency of the farming systems. |
| Keywords: | India, cotton, data, Gujarat, maharashtra, punjab, UP, padday, non-parametric, economics, efficiency, organic farming, conventional farming, DEA analysis, |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2497&r=cwa |
| By: | Gupta, Geetu; Sahu, Naresh Chandra |
| Abstract: | In this study ,an attempt has been made to investigate causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in India by adopting Granger Engel causality model for 1960-2006 period .Test results shows that electricity consumption has positive effect on economic growth. The paper support for the reforms in power sector and indicates that electricity act as a catalyst in realizing various social and economic goals. |
| Keywords: | Electricity consumption; Economic growth ; Granger Engel causality; India . |
| JEL: | Q48 Q49 Q40 |
| Date: | 2009–10–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:22942&r=cwa |
| By: | Bandhu, Yogesh |
| Abstract: | Agriculture in India is the most important segment of the economy. Growth of Agricultural sector is crucial for Indian economy as it employs two-third of its population and contributes nearly one-third of national income. However its importance in the economic, social and political fabric of India goes well beyond what is indicated by its contribution to the economy. The large number of poor agricultural households and their income vulnerability are major concern among policy makers. These concerns have driven both agricultural policies and public expenditures in agriculture in India as well as in other part of the globe. India made significant advances towards achieving its goal of rapid agricultural growth, improving food security, and reducing rural poverty during the last four decades. Sustainable food production growth enabled India to achieve foodgrain self sufficiency, eliminating the threat of famines and acute starvation in the country. More rapid agricultural productivity growth, as past experiences shows, can have major impacts on poverty reduction trough direct effects on producers income, indirect effects on consumer welfare trough changes in food prices, employment and wage effects, and growth induced effects throughout the economy. Agriculture is also one of the major sources of export earnings of our country and is crucial for improving the balance of payments. In recent years, the export of agricultural and allied products accounted for about one-fifth of total export earnings of India. India's share of agricultural export has remained very low in many commodities despite inherent strength of Indian agriculture with the exception of few commodities. The performance of agricultural export depends not only on adequate surplus, international prices, quality of product, market competition and comparative advantage of producing the exportable commodities but also on domestic and international trade policy. Hence the subsidies and supports to agricultural commodities of country play a major role to stand in international market. Present paper is an effort to evaluate competitiveness of Indian wheat and rice in international market. Keeping in view the overall foodgrain production, marketable surplus and number of farmers, among the major foodgrain producing states, Uttar Pradesh has been taken for comparison of trade competitiveness. Since agricultural trade is highly distorted due to huge subsidies and support to agriculture in developed countries; paper also evaluate competitiveness of these commodities in alternative case if both countries withdraw their subsidies to these commodities in form of Producer Support Estimate (PSE). The Paper is divided in four parts; Part one is about the methodology to calculate competitiveness. Trade competitiveness of wheat and rice at normal prices and at PSE adjusted prices has been calculated in part two. Part three evaluate the implications of agricultural subsidy and part four is the concluding part with suggesting some corrective measures for fair agricultural trade and due space of developing countries in international agricultural trade. |
| Keywords: | Trade competitiveness; Subsidies; WTO; Indian Agriculture |
| JEL: | F00 F13 Q17 F1 |
| Date: | 2009–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:22802&r=cwa |
| By: | Rao, M. Govinda (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Bird, Richard M. (Emeritus of Economics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada) |
| Abstract: | Over 330 million people live in India's cities; 35 cities have a population of over a million and three (Mumbai, Delhi, and Kolkata) of the 10 largest metropolises in the world are in India. India's cities are large, economically important, and growing. However, neither urban infrastructure nor the level of urban public services is adequate for current needs, let alone to meet growing demands. Dealing with this problem is a formidable challenge. Not only must adequate finance for the provision of services be found but it is critical to ensure that the money spent results in desired outputs and outcomes. To do so, local governance structures also need to be reformed and strengthened. This paper attempts to point the way towards some possible solutions by analysing urban governance and finance in India in the context of lessons drawn from fiscal federalism theory and experiences of governance institutions and financing systems both in India and around the world. No one system of urban governance is likely to work equally well for all urban local bodies. However, the paper identifies some key reforms required to realise both the constitutional intent to encourage citizen participation in urban governance and the economic and politically desirable goal of ensuring greater accountability of urban governments. For example, the paper draws attention to existing ambiguities in the assignment system and underlines the need to undertake activity mapping to ensure clarity as well as to make independent agencies significantly accountable to elected governments in urban areas. The paper also discusses a variety of ways of augmenting the resources of the municipal bodies in the country including essential reforms in the property tax system and adequate exploitation of user charges and fees for various services delivered as well as ways of strengthening and improving Central and State transfers to urban local governments. With respect to financing urban infrastructure, development charges should be used more effectively. More should also be done to utilise public lands more effectively. In addition, to a considerable extent capital expenditure requirements will have to be financed through borrowing so further development of the municipal bond market is important, as is more and more effective use of public private partnerships in some areas. |
| Keywords: | India, Urban public finance, Urban governance, Intergovernmental fiscal relations, Property tax, Metropolitan areas, Infrastructure finance |
| JEL: | R51 H70 |
| Date: | 2010–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:10/68&r=cwa |
| By: | Atkin, David (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces habit formation into an otherwise standard model of international trade. Household tastes evolve over time to favor foods consumed as a child. The opening of trade causes preferred goods to rise in price, as these were relatively inexpensive in autarky. Neglecting the correlation between tastes and agro-climatic endowments overstates the short-run nutritional gains from agricultural trade liberalization and masks potential caloric losses for laborers. I examine the predictions of this model of trade with habit formation using household survey data from India, both by looking across Indian regions and by examining the consumption patterns of inter-state migrants. |
| JEL: | F10 O10 O12 Q17 |
| Date: | 2010–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:yaleco:80&r=cwa |
| By: | F. Francavilla (Policy Studies Institute at University of Westminster.); Gianna Claudia Giannelli (Università degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche); Leonardo Grilli (Università degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica.) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relation between mothers’ employment and their children’s schooling in India, where a high number of children are not attending school at compulsory school age. Using the second National Family Health Survey, the results of a joint multi-level random effects model show that, controlling for covariates, the correlation between mothers’ employment and children’s schooling is negative. A sensitivity analysis on wealth and education deciles shows that this relation disappears in urban areas and becomes weaker in rural areas only at the top wealth deciles, but persists for the more educated mothers. The last result may be driven by the low number of females with a high level of education in India, but it also seems to envisage that, for mothers with lower education, being literate does not increase pay conditions. These findings suggest that policies aiming at improving both women’s and children’s welfare should not only pursue higher levels of education, but also target improvements in women’s conditions in the labour market. |
| Keywords: | women’s employment, children’s schooling, household allocation of time, random effects, India, NFHS-2 |
| JEL: | J13 J22 O15 O18 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2010_07.rdf&r=cwa |
| By: | Das, Rituparna |
| Abstract: | Researchers reported that - there were two approaches to money supply determination in India: balance sheet or structural approach and money multiplier approach; the former focused on individual items in the balance sheet of the consolidated monetary sector in order to explain changes in money supply and the latter focused on the relationship between money stock and reserve money; the money multiplier approach emerged strongly as a critic to the balance sheet approach; between January 1976 and January 1978 there was a hot and rich debate between two groups of researchers, one group led by Gupta who believed in the money multiplier theory, the other group of RBI economists, who were not accepting this theory; the debate gave rise to a number of research papers where mostly regression techniques were used to estimate and forecast money supply function; Bhattacharya (1972), Gupta (1972) and Marwah (1972) used regression techniques to estimate money multiplier in India four years before the debate took place. The above debate is narrated below in an analytical style. |
| Keywords: | money supply; high powered money; reserve money; RBI; Working Group; multiplier; balance sheet; forecast; currency |
| JEL: | E0 E4 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:22858&r=cwa |
| By: | Ashwini Deshpande; Thomas E. Weisskopf |
| Abstract: | The objective in this paper is to shed some empirical light on a claim often made by critics of affirmative action policies: that increasing the representation of members of marginalized communities in jobs – and especially in relatively skilled positions – comes at a cost of reduced efficiency. A systematic empirical analysis of productivity in the Indian Railways is undertaken in order to determine whether the policy of reserving jobs for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes has actually reduced productive efficiency in the railway system. No evidence have been found that affirmative action in hiring has reduced the efficiency of the Indian Railways. Indeed, some of the results suggest that the opposite is true, providing tentative support for the claim that greater labour force diversity boosts productivity. [Working Paper No. 185] |
| Keywords: | Affirmative, Action, Policies, Marginalised, Communities, Skilled, Positions, Efficeincies, Indian, Railways, Scheduled, Castes, Tribes, Labour, Force, Productivity, Diversity, Boosts |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2501&r=cwa |
| By: | Anup Kumar Bhandari |
| Abstract: | The present paper attempts to fill in the gap that exists in the Indian Leather industry, and makes some suggestions regarding the expansion of the by examining technical efficiency (TE) of individual leather producing firms for some selected years since the early-1980s. Analyzing the industry’s firm-level data through the Data Envelopment Analysis the paper observes a significant positive association between a firm’s size and its TE, but no such conclusive relation between a firm’s age and TE. It also finds significant variation in TE across firms in different groups of states as well as under different organizational structures. [Working Paper 426] |
| Keywords: | Leather industry; Data Envelopment Analysis, Technical Efficiency, Scale Efficiency, Returns to Scale. |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2500&r=cwa |
| By: | Seker, Murat; Correa, Paulo Guilherme |
| Abstract: | Many studies have shown that firm growth decreases monotonically with size and age. In this study, the authors investigate employment growth of firms in Turkey with an emphasis on small and medium size enterprises. In Turkey, small and medium size enterprises account for almost 77 percent of employment and play a crucial role in the economy. However, the analysis of firm dynamics in Turkey shows that medium-size firms (51-250 workers) are theslowest growing group in the economy. Moreover, small and medium size enterprises grow at a slower rate in Turkey than in several comparator countries in the Eastern Europe and Central Asia region. After determining this irregularity, the paper analyzes how the investment climate affects firm growth and finds that improved access to finance is the most important factor that significantly increases firm growth rates. |
| Keywords: | Microfinance,Achieving Shared Growth,Small Scale Enterprise,Access to Finance,Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2010–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5323&r=cwa |
| By: | Faridi, Muhammad Zahir; Chaudhry, Imran Sharif; Anwar, Mumtaz |
| Abstract: | The analysis of labour market participation is useful for formulating employment and human resource development policies. Females form almost more than half of the total population in Pakistan play a very important role in the country. The present study endeavors to estimate the various factors which affect the women work participation. The study is based on the cross-section data collected through field survey. The logistic regression technique is employed to estimate the determinants of female labour force participation. Educational attainment levels turn out to be very significant determinant. Female’s labour force participation rises with increasing level of education. Presence of children in early age groups reduces the female labour force participation. The results of the study conclude that female education is necessary for better employment opportunities. |
| Keywords: | Female labor force participation; Female education; Household Income; Family Dependents; Marital Status; Children; Logit Model; Pakistan |
| JEL: | C23 J82 |
| Date: | 2009–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:22831&r=cwa |
| By: | Anwar, Mumtaz; Chaudhry, Imran Sharif; Khan, Muhammad Bashir |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to examine the factors affecting cotton production in Multan region using primary source of data. A sample of 60 small farmers, 25 medium and 15 large farmers was randomly selected from two Tehsils namely Multan and Shujabad of district Multan. The Cobb-Douglas Production Function is employed to assess the effects of various inputs like cultivation, seed and sowing, irrigation, fertilizer, plant protection, inter-culturing / hoeing and labour cost on cotton yield. The results depicted that seed, fertilizer and irrigation were found scarce commodity for all category of farmers in district Multan. The Cobb-Douglas Production Function results revealed that the coefficients for cultivation (0.113) and seed (0.103) were found statistically significant at 1 percent level. The Cost-Benefit Ratio for the large farmers was found higher (1.41) than that of small (1.22) and medium (1.24) farmers. There is a dire need to ensure the availability of these scarce inputs by both public and private sectors as these inputs were major requirement of the cotton crop. |
| Keywords: | Cotton; Cobb- Douglas Production Function; Cost Benefit Ratio; Marginal Value Product; Allocate Efficiency of Critical Inputs; Multan District; Pakistan |
| JEL: | D10 D61 |
| Date: | 2009–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:22829&r=cwa |
| By: | Cizakca, Murat |
| Abstract: | Why is the Islamic world, once the centre the medieval world, now lagging so far behind? The importance of the topic has attracted economic historians trying to explain this dramatic story of economic decline. Among the various explanations those provided by Kuran concerning the alleged rigidity of Islamic jurisprudence and the Islamic law of inheritance are best known. In this article I will closely examine his views and provide an alternative explanation as to why Islamic companies could not expand beyond a certain size during the early modern age. |
| Keywords: | Corporations; Islamic law; Islamic backwardness; Islamic law of inheritance. |
| JEL: | H11 N00 G30 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:22865&r=cwa |
| By: | Hussein, Kassim |
| Abstract: | This study examines the behaviour of key bank level stability factors of liquidity, capital, risk-taking and consumer confidence in Islamic and conventional banks which operate in the same market. Using fixed effect sample of 194 banks of Gulf Cooperating Countries between 2000 and 2007, we found that liquidity is not determined by bank’s product mix but rather attributed to systematic factors. However, non performing assets (representing loans to sub prime borrowers) have positive and significant relationship with liquidity implying that during the crisis, Islamic banks tend to take stringent risk strategies compared to conventional banks. Furthermore, Islamic banks generally tend to provide higher consumer confidence levels as they were more capitalized than conventional banks, although conventional banks had carried higher averages of liquidity compared to Islamic banks. Consumer confidence levels or depositors’ discipline as proxied by deposits and customer funding over liabilities generally appear to be higher in Islamic banks than conventional banks. |
| Keywords: | Bank stability; consumer confidence; depositors’ discipline; Islamic banks; Gulf Cooperating Countries |
| JEL: | D12 D40 G21 |
| Date: | 2010–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:21800&r=cwa |
| By: | Hanif, M. Nadim; Sheikh, Salman |
| Abstract: | Continuous growth in Islamic finance calls for studying the framework in which the monetary policy maker (i.e., central bank) performs its functions. Central banks in Muslim countries are using various instruments for monetary policy purpose including interest rate. As a result, Islamic financial institutions (IFIs) are facing issues in benchmarking the price of financial instruments. Acceptable solution to benchmarking lies in the presence of a real economic activity in the base of any proposal and its feasibility for business performance when put against conventional banking. This paper presents empirical evidence of statistical equivalence of nominal GDP growth rate and official interest rate for ‘advanced,’ ‘all,’ and some Muslim countries. We propose nominal GDP growth rate as benchmark for pricing domestic financial transactions of IFIs as well as for pricing external bilateral/ multilateral loans. The paper also suggests nominal income targeting as monetary policy regime. |
| Keywords: | Islamic Finance; Central Bank; Interest Rate; Nominal Income Targeting |
| JEL: | G12 E58 |
| Date: | 2009–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:22907&r=cwa |
| By: | Andrews, Matt (Harvard University); Hay, Roger (?); Myers, Jerrett (Institute for Government, London) |
| Abstract: | Governance indicators have come under fire in recent years, especially the World Governance Indicators (WGIs). Critics present these indicators as a-theoretical and biased. Critics of the critics counter that no better alternatives exist. We suggest otherwise, arguing that more appropriate 'governance' indicators will (i) have theoretical grounding, (ii) focus on specific fields of engagement, (iii) emphasize outcomes, and (iv) control for key contextual differences in comparing countries. Such measures can help indicate where countries seem to have governance problems, allowing second stage analyses of what these problems are. We present under national five mortality rates adjusted for country income groups as an example of such measure, presenting data for contextually controlled outcomes in this specific field to show where governance seems better and worse. The United States is shown up as relatively weak, whereas a country like Pakistan seems to have better governance in this sector than other low income countries. The indicator allows questions about why governance of this sector might be problematic in certain contexts and easier in others. |
| Date: | 2010–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp10-015&r=cwa |
| By: | Koichi Futagami; Ryoji Ohdoi; Takeo Hori |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the effects of introducing constraints on government borrowing have been examined by using a continuous-time overlapping generations model of a small open economy. Government placing constraints on the amount of government bonds have been considered outstanding by establishing an upper limit, or target level, for the ratio of government bonds to gross domestic product. First it is shown that there exist multiple steady states in the model small open economy. Next the target level for bonds affecting economic growth rates at the steady states is examined. |
| Keywords: | government, borrowing, overlapping, generations, model, positive, amount, asset, holdings, economy |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2502&r=cwa |
| By: | Nikos Christofis; Christos Kollias; Stephanos Papadamou; Apostolos Stagiannis |
| Abstract: | Beyond the loss of life and personal injuries that the victims of terrorist actions suffer and the atmosphere of fear terrorists seek to create with their premeditated use of brutal violence, terror also has real economic and political costs that go beyond the immediate costs and damages of a terrorist attack. Terrorist actions can have a multitude of economic consequences that may adversely affect a number of economic indices, sectors and activities including their impact on capital markets. This paper sets out to examine the effect of these attacks on the Turkish Stock Market. It focuses its empirical investigation on the Istanbul stock-market and the impact that recent major terrorist incidents exerted on market behaviour. Findings reported herein indicate in some cases significant abnormal returns. |
| Keywords: | terrorism, capital markets, conditional volatility |
| JEL: | G14 G21 C22 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diweos:diweos31&r=cwa |
| By: | Stelios Michalopoulos; Alireza Naghavi; Giovanni Prarolo |
| Abstract: | This research examines the economic origins of Islam and uncovers two empirical regularities. First, Muslim countries, virtual countries and ethnic groups, exhibit highly unequal regional agricultural endowments. Second, Muslim adherence is systematically larger along the pre-Islamic trade routes in the Old World. The theory argues that this particular type of geography (i) determined the economic aspects of the religious doctrine upon which Islam was formed, and (ii) shaped its subsequent economic performance. It suggests that the unequal distribution of land endowments conferred di¤erential gains from trade across regions, fostering predatory behavior from the poorly endowed ones. In such an environment it was mutually beneficial to institute a system of income redistribution. However, a higher propensity to save by the rich would exacerbate wealth inequality rendering redistribution unsustainable, leading to the demise of the Islamic unity. Consequently, income inequality had to remain within limits for Islam to persist. This was instituted via restrictions on physical capital accumulation. Such rules rendered the investments on public goods, through religious endowments, increasingly attractive. As a result, capital accumulation remained low and wealth inequality bounded. Geography and trade shaped the set of economically relevant religious principles of Islam affecting its economic trajectory in the preindustrial world. |
| Keywords: | Religion; Islam; Geography; Physical Capital; Human Capital; Land Inequality; Wealth Inequality; Trade |
| JEL: | O10 O13 O16 O17 O18 F10 Z12 |
| Date: | 2010–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:recent:046&r=cwa |
| By: | Andrés Rodríguez-Pose (IMDEA Ciencias Sociales); Roberto Ezcurra (Universidad Pública de Navarra) |
| Abstract: | The global drive towards decentralization has been increasingly justified on the basis that greater transfers of resources to subnational governments are expected to deliver greater efficiency in the provision of public goods and services and greater economic growth. This paper examines whether this is the case, by analysing the relationship between decentralization and economic growth in 21 OECD countries during the period between 1990 and 2005 and controlling not only for fiscal decentralization, but also for political and administrative decentralization. The results point towards a negative and significant association between fiscal decentralization and economic growth in the sample countries, a relationship which is robust to the inclusion of a series of control variables and to differences in expenditure preferences by subnational governments. The impact of political and administrative decentralization on economic growth is weaker and sensitive to the definition and measurement of political decentralization. |
| Keywords: | fiscal decentralization;political decentralization;administrative decentralization;economic growth;OECD |
| JEL: | H71 H72 H77 |
| Date: | 2010–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imd:wpaper:wp2010-09&r=cwa |