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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Patnaik, Ila (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Shah, Ajay (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | India has an elaborate system of capital controls which impede capital mobility and particularly short-term debt. Yet, when the global money market fell into turmoil after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on 13/14 September 2008, the Indian money market immediately experienced considerable stress, and the operating procedures of monetary policy broke down. We suggest that Indian multinationals were using the global money market and were short of dollars on 15 September. They borrowed in India and took capital out of the country. We make three predictions that follow from this hypothesis, and nd that the evidence matches these predictions. This suggests an important role for Indian multinationals in India's evolution towards de facto convertibility. |
| Date: | 2010–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:10/63&r=cwa |
| By: | Jayaram, Shruthi (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Patnaik, Ila (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Shah, Ajay (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the decoupling hypothesis for India. We analyse business cycle synchronisation between India and a set of industrial economies, particularly the United States, over the period 1992 to 2008. The evidence suggests that the Indian business cycle exhibits increasing co-movement with business cycles in industrial economies over this period. Indian business cycle synchronisation is stronger with industrial countries as a whole as opposed to the co-movement found with the US. |
| Date: | 2009–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:09/61&r=cwa |
| By: | Pradhan, Jaya Prakash |
| Abstract: | The liberalization of economic policies in the last two decades and intensifying market competition tend to be a cause of policy concern for the survival of SMEs in emerging economies like India as these firms accounts for the largest chunk of industrial units and employment. Given their limited financial and intangible resources, the promotion of R&D among SMEs has become a very important policy parameter. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the literature on Indian R&D by analyzing the trends and patterns of R&D investment by Indian manufacturing SMEs during the period 1991−2008 and exploring various factors that determine their R&D behaviour. The results show that Indian SMEs have lowest incidence of doing in-house R&D and their R&D intensities have fallen in the last decade. A number of factors that play important role in determining SME R&D have been identified based on the three steps Censored Quantile Regression and some useful policy implications are suggested for enhancing R&D activities of small firms. |
| Keywords: | SMEs; R&D; Business Groups; Foreign Firms |
| JEL: | L11 F23 O32 L22 O31 |
| Date: | 2010–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:20951&r=cwa |
| By: | Aggarwal, Aradhna |
| Abstract: | This study aims at examining the economic impacts of SEZs in the Indian context. While doing so, it addresses the conceptual confusion about SEZs, outlines the evolution of SEZs; traces economic philosophies explaining the rationale and benefits of SEZs; extends existing theoretical literature to explain the economic impacts of SEZs; assesses the economic impacts of newly notified SEZs in India; reviews the strategies followed by various state governments in the implementation of the policy ; and draws policy implications. It argues that the existing economic theories donot adequately explain the rationale and contribution of SEZs. These approaches need to be extended by integrating the provisions of the theories of agglomeration economies and global value chains within the existing theoretical frameworks. It analyses the economic impacts of SEZs within the extended theoretical framework. It finds that while SEZs are stimulating direct investment and employment, their role appears to be more valuable in bringing about economic transformation from a resource-led economy to a skill and technology-led economy; from low value added economic activities to high value added economic activities; from low productive sectors to high productive sectors; and from unorganised to organized sectors, both at the national and regional levels. They have the potential of promoting new knowledge intensive industries; augmenting existing industrial clusters/industrial states; diversifying the local industrial base; and localizing global value chain. However, a strategic approach is required to reap the opportunities offered by SEZs. |
| Keywords: | Special economic zones; Exports; FDI; Economic diversification; Agglomeration economies; global value chains;India |
| JEL: | F13 O53 F14 O19 F43 |
| Date: | 2010–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:20902&r=cwa |
| By: | Patnaik, Ila (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Shah, Ajay (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:09/62&r=cwa |
| By: | Rob French (Depatment of Quantitative Social Science - Institute of Education, University of London.); Geeta Kingdon (Depatment of Quantitative Social Science - Institute of Education, University of London.) |
| Abstract: | One of the many changes in India since economic liberalisation began in 1991 is the increased use of private schooling. There has been a growing body of literature to assess whether this is a positive trend and to evaluate the effects on child achievement levels. The challenge is to identify the true private school effect on achievement, isolating the effect of the schools themselves from other variables that might boost private school outcomes, such as a superior (higher ability) student intake. Using the ASER data for 2005 to 2007 a number of methodologies are used to produce a cumulative evidence base on the effectiveness of private schools relative to their government counterparts. Household fixed effects estimates yield a private school achievement advantage of 0.17 standard deviations and village level 3-year panel data analysis yields a private school learning advantage of 0.114 SD. Length: 39 pages |
| Keywords: | Student achievement, private and public schooling, India |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2010–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qss:dqsswp:1003&r=cwa |
| By: | Das, Maitreyi Bordia; Kapoor, Soumya; Nikitin, Denis |
| Abstract: | The authors use data from the National Family Health Survey 2005 to present age-specific patterns of child mortality among India's tribal (Adivasi) population. The analysis shows three clear findings. First, a disproportionately high number of child deaths are concentrated among Adivasis, especially in the 1-5 age group and in those states and districts where there is a high concentration of Adivasis. Any effort to reduce child morality in the aggregate will have to focus more squarely on lowering mortality among the Adivasis. Second, the gap in mortality between Adivasi children and the rest really appears after the age of one. In fact, before the age of one, tribal children face more or less similar odds of dying as other children. However, these odds significantly reverse later. This calls for a shift in attention from infant mortality or in general under-five mortality to factors that cause a wedge between tribal children and the rest between the ages of one and five. Third, the analysis goes contrary to the conventional narrative of poverty being the primary factor driving differences between mortality outcomes. Instead, the authors find that breaking down child mortality by age leads to a much more refined picture. Tribal status is significant even after controlling for wealth. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Early Child and Children's Health,Adolescent Health,Early Childhood Development |
| Date: | 2010–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5231&r=cwa |
| By: | Jordan Siegel (Harvard Business School, Strategy Unit); Prithwiraj Choudhury (Harvard Business School) |
| Abstract: | The last decade of corporate governance research has been focused in large part on identifying what leads to superior or deficient corporate governance in emerging economies, and we think the conventional wisdom about the economically important topics of tunneling and business groups will need to be significantly questioned and reformulated in light of new findings, data, and methodology presented here. We propose the idea that firms' corporate governance and firms' strategic business activities within an industry are interlinked, and that only by conducting a simultaneous economic analysis of business strategy and corporate governance can scholars fully discern the quality of a firm's governance. We advance this idea by taking a fresh look at one of the most rigorous extant methodologies for detecting "tunneling," or efforts by firms' controlling owner-managers to take money for themselves at the expense of minority shareholders. We show that efforts to discern which firms have superior or deficient corporate governance in the important emerging economy of India turn critically on whether one does a simultaneous economic analysis of business strategy and corporate governance. We find in contrast to prior views that Indian business groups are not, on average, engaging in tunneling, but are on average exhibiting good corporate governance, especially in light of the markedly different business strategies they typically undertake. Moreover, unlike many past conceptions of business groups from financial economics, sociology, and strategy, we find evidence for a knowledge-based "recombinative capabilities" view of business groups-that such groups have done the most to invest in R&D and other skills necessary to combine inputs in ways that lead to greater added value. Moreover, our finding that Indian business groups have grown larger and more diversified since liberalization and since broad-based corporate governance reforms were implemented, goes expressly against the prediction of prior schools of thought about business groups. |
| Date: | 2010–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hbs:wpaper:10-072&r=cwa |
| By: | Cem Saati006flu (Istanbul University Faculty and Department of Economics); Levent Korap (Marmara University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we aim to test the empirical validity of the QTM relationship for the Turkish economy. Using some contemporaneous time series estimation techniques, our estimation results reveal that stationarity characteristics of the velocities of currency in circulation and the broad money aggregate in the economy cannot be rejected through a quantity theoretical co-integrating long-term variable space. We find that there exists an about one-to-one proportionality between money and prices and money and real income, and that exogeneity of money cannot be rejected for the currency in circulation in the economy. But, the exception here comes from the broad monetary aggregate used in the QTM equation such that money seems to be endogenous as for the long-term variable space. |
| Keywords: | Money, Prices, Income, Quantity Theory of Money, Co-integration, Longspan Data, Turkish Economy |
| JEL: | C32 E51 E52 E61 |
| Date: | 2009–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:voj:wpaper:200914&r=cwa |
| By: | Tolga Aksoy (Yildiz Technical University, Economics Department, Istanbul, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between technology and demand for skilled labor both historically and empirically. First, it is pointed out that the Industrial Revolution substituted skilled labor with unskilled labor since it has a de-skilling characteristic. Second, the skill-bias feature of Information and Communication Technologies Revolution is suggested. Finally, the effect of technological progress on the demand for skilled labor is tested for Turkish Private Manufacturing Industries. According to the static panel data estimation results, there is a positive but weak relationship between technological progress and demand for skilled labor. |
| Keywords: | Skill bias, Technological change, Manufacturing |
| JEL: | O33 J23 J24 |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:voj:wpaper:200925&r=cwa |
| By: | Basher, Syed, Abul |
| Abstract: | As oil and gas are exhaustible resources, the need for economic diversification has gained momentum in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries immediately after the end of the first oil boom in 1973-74. Economic diversification, in the context of GCC countries, implies development of the non-oil sector and reduction of the proportion of government revenue and export proceeds from the oil and gas sector. Applying newly developed measures of business cycle synchronicity between oil and non-oil sectors in three GCC economies (Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia), we show both the degree of diversification achieved so far and the direction of diversification in terms of individual non-oil sectors. Overall, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia appear to be moderately ahead than Qatar in reducing their dependence on oil. Nevertheless, by developing large production capacities of natural gas, Qatar has recently reduced its dependence on oil in favor of natural gas. A quantitative assessment of the determinants of business cycle synchronization is also provided. |
| Keywords: | Business cycle; Synchronization; Oil price; Fiscal policy; GCC countries. |
| JEL: | E62 Q32 E32 H30 |
| Date: | 2010–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:21059&r=cwa |