|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Pradhan, Jaya Prakash |
| Abstract: | Surpassing the decoupling expectation, the global economic crisis is now spreading into Indian economy through various channels. Indeed, this brief survey of the effects of crisis suggests that India’s financial and real sectors are closely integrated with the global financial and export markets. So far crisis has shown just how it can undermine India’s growth rate, which in turn likely to have long-term implications for economic and social developments in the country. |
| Keywords: | Financial crisis, economic slowdown, growth |
| JEL: | G15 N25 N15 F43 |
| Date: | 2009–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:16004&r=cwa |
| By: | Sanjoy Patnaik |
| Abstract: | Sal seeds could provide effective livelihoods support for poor people when few alternative natural resource based strategies are available |
| Keywords: | sal seeds, livelihood support, poor people, natural resource, India, wage, incentives, government, welfare, |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2090&r=cwa |
| By: | Kishor, N. Kundan |
| Abstract: | This paper studies data revision properties of GDP growth and inflation as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for the Indian economy. We find that data revisions to GDP growth and WPI inflation in India are significant. The results show that revisions to GDP growth and WPI inflation can not be characterized as either containing pure news or pure noise. We also find that there is a significant predictable component in revisions to GDP growth and inflation. Our findings suggest that if the Reserve Bank of India were to follow a Taylor rule for its monetary policy formulation, then the interest rate based on the preliminary data would be much lower than the one based on the fully revised data. |
| Keywords: | Data Revisions; Real-Time Data; Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | C53 C82 E52 |
| Date: | 2009–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:16099&r=cwa |
| By: | Kishor, N. Kundan |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role of the real money gap- the deviation of real money balance from its long-run equilibrium level- for predicting inflation in India. Using quarterly data on manufacturing inflation from 1982 to 2007, we find that the real money gap is a significant predictor of inflation in India. Our results show that this variable is a better predictor of future inflation at quarterly horizon than the deviation of broad money growth from its target for the whole sample period. We also document a break in the overall predictability of inflation in the last quarter of 1995. We find that except for the real money gap, the forecasting power of other predictors under study has declined considerably after 1995. |
| Keywords: | Inflation. Monetary Policy; Indian Economy |
| JEL: | E31 E58 E52 |
| Date: | 2009–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:16098&r=cwa |
| By: | Manoj K. Pandey |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the trend and determinants of health and poverty among the elderly in rural India is analysed. Two rounds of National Sample Survey (NSS) data for the year 1995-96 and 2004 are employed. The analysis has been done with independent and pooled datasets. Our analysis shows that levels of consumption poverty have declined marginally between 1995-96 and 2004 while increased proportion of elderly with poor health status is continued. Results suggest that poverty is one of the key determinants of health among elderly in rural India. |
| Keywords: | health, poverty, elderly |
| JEL: | I32 J14 I12 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:asarcc:2009-14&r=cwa |
| By: | Manoj K. Pandey; Charanjit Kaur |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the trend and economic determinants of the suicidal deaths in India. Time-series data over the period 1967-2006 is used from various sources. The paper analyzes the suicidal trend and exploratory relationships between suicide rate and some of the demographic and other economic variates. Further, we use ARDL model to find out the association between suicide and some economic variables. We find that inflation, per capita real GDP and industrial growth encourages the incidences of suicides whereas increased per capita household income helps in reducing suicidal deaths in India. |
| Keywords: | Suicide, Economic factors, Trends, Time series, ARDL model |
| JEL: | C22 I12 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:asarcc:2009-08&r=cwa |
| By: | Usha Thakkar |
| Abstract: | Book Review Discourse on Women and Empowerment, Vibhuti Patel (Ed), (Empowering Women Worldwide Series: 4), The Women Press, Delhi, 2009. |
| Keywords: | discourse, women, sex, SHGs, patriarchal practices, India, parliament, customary laws empowerment |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2108&r=cwa |
| By: | Vasant P Gandhi |
| Abstract: | Groundwater has rapidly emerged to occupy a dominant place in India’s agriculture and food security in the recent years. It has become the main source of growth in irrigated area over the past 3 decades, and it now accounts for over 60 percent of the irrigated area in the country. It is estimated that now over 70 percent of India’s food grain production comes from irrigated agriculture, in which groundwater plays a major role. Since the development of groundwater irrigation has not largely been government or policy driven - has happened gradually through highly decentralized private activity, this revolution has gone largely unnoticed.[IIMA W.P. No. 2009-03-08] |
| Keywords: | Groundwater; India; agriculture; food security; production; policy; Irrigation; Surface Water; equity; efficiency; externality; problems; laws and policies |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2091&r=cwa |
| By: | Ljungwall, Christer (China Economic Research Center); Gao, Xu (World Bank, China Group, Beijing Office) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the sources of business cycle fluctuations in China and India since 1978/81. Under the framework of a standard neoclassical open economy model with time-varying frictions (wedges), we study the relative importance of efficiency, labor, investment and government consumption wedges on the business cycle phenomenon. This enables us to contrast and compare the two countries’ experience in a way remarkably different from previous studies. The results for both China and India show that efficiency wedge is the main source of economic fluctuations, while the investment wedge and government consumption wedge played minor roles in generating business cycles. |
| Keywords: | Business cycle fluctuations; Business cycle accounting; China; India |
| JEL: | E32 E37 O47 O53 |
| Date: | 2009–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:hacerc:2009-007&r=cwa |
| By: | Manoj K. Pandey; Prakash Singh; Ram Ashish Yadav |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of domestic violence on the health of ever-married women of reproductive age group in India. Micro-level National Family Health Survey (NFHS-III) data for the year 2005-06 has been used in the study. We employ disease, body mass index, under nutrition level and anemia as the measures of health and physical, emotional and sexual forms of domestic violence are used as indicators of domestic violence at both national and state levels. We find that domestic violence has negative impact on the overall women’s health and nutritional status. However, national level results are not consistent with that of the states level. Based on the findings, we argue that the issue of domestic violence should be addressed in national and state level health policies and programmes. |
| Keywords: | Domestic violence, health, prevalence rate |
| JEL: | I00 I12 J12 J16 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:asarcc:2009-13&r=cwa |
| By: | Prakash Singh; Manoj K. Pandey |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to take a meticulous look on stability of money demand in India Using annual data for period 1953-2007 and the Hansen (1992) and Gregory Hansen (1996) co-integration approaches with structural break. Results of the Gregory Hansen (1996) cointegration analysis show the presence of cointegration in demand for money, real GDP and nominal interest rate with structural break at 1965. Further, study also suggests for downward shift of about 0.33% around 1965 in the demand for money function and put forward that demand for money is stable except for the period of 1975-1998. |
| Keywords: | Money demand, Cointegration with structural break, Stability, Choice of monetary instrument |
| JEL: | E41 E52 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:asarcc:2009-07&r=cwa |
| By: | Bauer, Michal (Charles University, Prague); Chytilová, Julie (Charles University, Prague) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the link between women's responsibility for children and their preferences. We use a large random sample of individuals living in rural India, incentive compatible measures of patience and risk aversion, and detailed survey data. We find more patient choices among women who have a higher number of children. The age of children matters: The link with patience is specific for children below 18 years old, and the highest level of patience is associated with having three children. We do not observe this link among men. Taken together, we find significant gender differences in patience that are predicted by a higher number of children. The results are robust to controlling for age, education, income constraints, and individual and location characteristics. These findings suggest an important context when the spending preferences of spouses diverge, and support the view that empowering women in developing countries should lead to more future-oriented choices of households. |
| Keywords: | time discounting, gender, children, experiment, India |
| JEL: | C93 D13 D91 |
| Date: | 2009–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4241&r=cwa |
| By: | Manoj K. Pandey |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the effect of maternal health on the under-five mortality has been examined. Third wave of micro-level National Family Health Survey 2005-06 data for rural India is used. Using various alternative measures of maternal health, the paper finds strong association between maternal health and child mortality. In particular, the effects of maternal height, weight, presence of any disease and anemia are found significant. Based on our findings, we argue that if the possible generational transfer of poor health from a mother to her child has to avoid, policies aimed at attaining the millennium development goal of reduced child mortality should be directed on improving the health of existing and future mothers. |
| Keywords: | under-five mortality, maternal height, maternal weight, body mass index, anemia |
| JEL: | D6 I12 J13 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:asarcc:2009-12&r=cwa |
| By: | Bali Swain, Ranjula (Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the effect of training, in both skill development and human capital, provided by facilitators of self help groups (SHGs). Indian SHGs are unique in that they are mainly NGOformed microfinance groups but later funded by commercial banks. The results suggest that, in general, training does not impact assets but training can reverse the potentially negative effect of credit on income. Moreover, training is more effective for asset accumulation in villages with better infrastructure. In terms of training delivery, results show that the most effective linkage is when NGOs form groups and banks finance SHGs. |
| Keywords: | Asia; India; microfinance; impact studies; training; Self Help Groups |
| JEL: | G21 I32 O12 |
| Date: | 2009–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2009_011&r=cwa |
| By: | D Subbarao |
| Abstract: | The third Annual Statistics Day Conference of the Reserve Bank. It has now become a tradition for to mark the Statistics Day as a tribute to late Professor P.C. Mahalanobis and his colossal contribution to the development of statistics in India. Three challenges in the area of statistical analysis and interpretation of those: 1)what steps do the official data agencies need to take to ensure that data are comprehensive, consistent and timely? 2) It is important that the various indices such as WPI or IIP, which attempt to capture the underlying developments in the economy, are refined and updated on a continuous basis to provide timely information to the policymakers. 3)help manage expectations and perceptions better by focussing attention on data standards as well as improving the quality of our statistics education. [Inaugural address delivered at the third Annual Statistics Day Conference of the Reserve Bank at Mumbai] |
| Keywords: | Mumbai, data, education, official data, Bayesian, central banks, globalisation, India, developments, economy, statistics, statistical, |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2109&r=cwa |
| By: | Shawn Cole; Xavier Giné; Jeremy Tobacman; Petia Topalova; Robert Townsend; James Vickery |
| Abstract: | Financial engineering offers the potential to significantly reduce the consumption fluctuations faced by individuals, households, and firms. Yet much of this potential remains unfulfilled. This paper studies the adoption of an innovative rainfall insurance product designed to compensate low-income Indian farmers in the event of insufficient rainfall during the primary monsoon season. We first document relatively low adoption of this new risk management product: Only 5-10 percent of households purchase the insurance, even though they overwhelmingly cite rainfall variability as their most significant source of risk. We then conduct a series of randomized field experiments to test theories of why product adoption is so low. Insurance purchase is sensitive to price, with an estimated extensive price elasticity of demand ranging between -.66 and -0.88. Credit constraints, identified through the provision of random liquidity shocks, are a key barrier to participation, a result also consistent with household self-reports. Several experiments find that trust plays an important role in the decision to purchase insurance. We find mixed evidence that subtle psychological manipulations affect purchases and no evidence that modest attempts at financial education change households' decisions to participate. Based on our experimental results, we suggest preliminary lessons for improving the design of household risk management contracts. |
| Keywords: | Households - Economic aspects ; Insurance ; Risk management |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:373&r=cwa |
| By: | Manoj K. Pandey |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the association between marital status and self-reported health status of Indian adults. A nationally representative cross-sectional data surveyed by National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) in 2004 is used. Results confirm linkages between marital status and health and show that this relationship is sensitive to the age and gender. Based on findings, the paper argues that the implication of marital status on health could be different for adults of different age group and gender. |
| Keywords: | Self-reported Health Status, Marital Status, Ordered Probit Regression |
| JEL: | I12 J12 J14 J16 C31 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:asarcc:2009-10&r=cwa |
| By: | Daniel Platz |
| Abstract: | This paper sets out to explore the potential of sub-sovereign bonds in financing infrastructure in developing countries. Taking into account the historical experience of the US, it develops a supply and demand side framework for analysis of the market for sub-sovereign bonded debt in developing countries and applies this framework to Mexico, India and South Africa. Finally, it draws lessons for countries seeking to promote markets for sub-sovereign bonds. Evidence suggests that the regulatory environment, a diversified financial sector and increased capacity for debt support and management matter most for the development of the sub-sovereign bond market. |
| Keywords: | Sub-sovereign bonds, infrastructure finance, issuers, investors, financial sector, municipal finance |
| JEL: | H74 H54 H41 H81 |
| Date: | 2009–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:une:wpaper:76&r=cwa |
| By: | Seher Nur Sulku; Asena Caner |
| Date: | 2009–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tob:wpaper:0903&r=cwa |
| By: | Sayera Younus |
| Abstract: | The study examines the impact of changes in monetary policy in Bangladesh. Specifically, the study examines the impact of domestic and foreign monetary shocks on Bangladesh’s major economic aggregates.In the context of a semi-global economy such as Bangladesh, the conduct of monetary policy becomes increasingly more difficult as globalization proceeds. It becomes important to examine the impact of changes in relevant 'foreign' variables (e.g., interest rate, money supply, exchange rate)while formulating domestic monetary policy. The empirical results of the present analysis show that innovations to foreign money supply have significant impacts on Bangladesh's real exchange rate,interest rate,land output.[Bangladesh Bank WP NO 0902] |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Macroeconomic Variables |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2084&r=cwa |
| By: | M. Golam Mortaza |
| Abstract: | In recent years, Bangladesh has experienced persistent price increases, especially of food items, in the domestic market in the backdrop of global increase in food prices. Such price developments in the international commodity markets have brought into forefront the effects of external price changes on domestic inflation, especially in the developing countries. This raises the issue of the existence and extent of import price pass-through to domestic prices. This paper analyzes the relationship between import and domestic prices in Bangladesh during 2000-2008. Using monthly data, the paper explores the relationship between domestic supply and passthrough elasticity and argues that commodities with higher share of domestic supply face a lower pass-through elasticity of import prices on domestic prices.[Bangladesh Bank WP NO 0807] |
| Keywords: | International Prices; Domestic Prices; Elasticity; Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2083&r=cwa |
| By: | Kamal, Yasir; Hanif, Fawad |
| Abstract: | This paper endeavors to study the various factors of job satisfaction among different commercial bankers in Pakistan and highlight the findings by performing statistical techniques like regression and correlation to gauge level of significance for the factor. Pay has been considered as the major factor for job satisfaction however other related factors like promotion, recognition, job involvement and commitment are also taken into account. Job satisfaction is an attitude of an employee over a period of his job so the factors of satisfaction and dissatisfaction changes over the period. It is a relative term and is nowadays used as a key factor to gauge the performance of a particular employee and organization. Satisfied employees are more likely to be friendly and responsive which attracts customers. Dissatisfied employees can lead to customer dissatisfaction. |
| Keywords: | Job Satisfaction; Pay; Banker |
| JEL: | M0 M12 |
| Date: | 2009–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:16059&r=cwa |
| By: | Manoj K. Pandey |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the effect of health status on labour force participation for aged Indians. The potential endogeneity in health and labour force participation has been taken care of by using full information maximum likelihood (FIML) and estimation results are compared with alternative two-stage methods. Results show that health has a significant and positive effect on labour force participation of the aged. In order to keep enough supply of elderly in the labour market, sufficient health care is necessary and hence more investment in this sector is imperative. |
| Keywords: | self-reported health status, labour force participation, elderly, endogeneity, exogeneity, simultaneous equation model |
| JEL: | J21 J14 I18 C35 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:asarcc:2009-11&r=cwa |
| By: | Md. Akhtaruzzaman |
| Abstract: | Ensuring price stability is one of the prime objectives of the monetary policy in Bangladesh, whereby the latest monetary policy statement aims at rapid growth with price stability. This note examines how changes in the consumption patterns as derived from the household income and expenditure surveys (HIES) of 1995/96 and 2005 affect the average weights of goods in the CPI and consequently the level of inflation in the economy. The note also makes a brief assessment of the implications of using average weights in the consumption basket rather than using specific weights representing different expenditure groups. The study shows that it is important to capture the changing structure of household consumption and ensure the use of representative weights in constructing CPI inflation. This generates a more realistic picture of price changes in the economy. Such changes have significant implications and should be effectively used to adjust the distribution of CPI weights in measuring inflation, so as to provide more accurate estimates of inflation in Bangladesh. [BB PP no.0802] |
| Keywords: | inflation; Bangladesh; consumption pattern; expenditure; price stability; monetary policy; consumer price index (CPI); CPI inflation; household income and expenditure surveys (HIES); CPI weights; commodity- specific weights |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2102&r=cwa |
| By: | Mahjabeen Rahman |
| Abstract: | A large number of new Shasthya Shebikas were recruited under the maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) program besides the existing ones. This study attempts to explore whether and how the income earning capability of the Shasthya Shebikas, both old and new, was affected due to this new initiative, with respect to Nilphamari district of Bangladesh. The study also brings out the determinants of income Shasthya Shebikas and also the motivation for their work in general. Findings revealed that the motivation to become a Shasthya Shebika was mainly financial though for some the opportunity to provide socially beneficial services was also important. With respect to a number of factors affecting the Shebika’s income, it can be found that the new Shebikas were in disadvantage as compared to the existing Shebikas who were working already in that area. [RED WP no.06] |
| Keywords: | BRAC; Shasthya Shebika; Bangladesh; Nilphamari; maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) program; income; Shebika’s work; Shebika income. |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2105&r=cwa |
| By: | Mustafa. K. Mujeri |
| Abstract: | This note analyses the major characteristics of the current inflationary episode in the economy along with its probable impact on different population groups in Bangladesh. The note also draws some policy implications. The inflationary characteristics points out that the economy is in the midst of supply-shock inflation fed by rapid rise in the food prices resulting from production and supply disruptions. It is important that such price increases persists through inertial momentum. The monetary policy needs to focus more on stabilizing supply in face of adverse shocks in order to protect the poor. The potential of recovery of all economic sectors is strong, so that adequate credit and other critical input flows to productive activities would be crucial to realizing the expected increase in economic activities. [BB PP no.0801] |
| Keywords: | inflation; Bangladesh; poor; monetary policy; supply- shock inflation; rising food prices. |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2103&r=cwa |
| By: | Md. Habibur Rahman |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relative importance of monetary and fiscal policies in altering real output of Bangladesh. An unrestricted vector auto regression (VAR) framework based on the St. Louis equations, is used to compute variance decompositions (VDCs)and impulse response function (IRF) through 1000 Monte Carlo Simulations. A 'Monetary— Fiscal Game' under oligopolistic framework is also used to justify the co-ordination and co-operation between the monetary and fiscal authorities. The outcomes of this study imply that monetary policy is relatively more effective than fiscal policy in stimulating real economic activity. The results also confirm the presence of interactions between monetary and fiscal policies. [BB WP no.0601] |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; fiscal policy; Bangladesh; vector auto regression (VAR); variance decompositions (VDCs); impulse response function (IRF); Monetary— Fiscal Game; St. Louis equations. |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2100&r=cwa |
| By: | Rabin Hattari |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates sources and determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to developing Asia using bilateral FDI flows for the period 1990-2005. With regard to the determinants of FDI flows, the paper uses an augmented gravity model framework. The paper shows the differences in the determinants of FDI flows to developing Asian economies from Asian and Pacific region, compared to those from non-regional OECD economies, emphasizing the roles of distance and time zone differences. The paper shows that the elasticity of distance is greater for FDI from the non-Asia pacific OECD economies than intraregional Asian flows. However, this difference disappears when one accounts for difference in the time zones. Thus, differences in the time zones appear to act as a hindrance to FDI. [ADBI WP no.117] |
| Keywords: | FDI; Asia; developing Asia; distance; time zones; bilateral data analysis; augmented gravity model framework; intraregional FDI flows; extraregional FDI flows; OECD economies. |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2098&r=cwa |
| By: | Mustafa. K. Mujeri |
| Abstract: | The paper estimates the P* model for Bangladesh economy and test its forecasting ability through generating recursive forecasts. The empirical result shows that the model performs relatively well and contains additional information regarding future rates of inflation. The price and output gap models fare consistently better then the velocity gap model which brings out the importance of non-monetary factors in explaining inflation dynamics in Bangladesh. The P* model can have wide applications in policy analysis. With financial sector liberalization and reforms, it is likely that the scope for the P* model to play a more proactive role would be ramified in Bangladesh. [BB WP no.0901] |
| Keywords: | inflation; Bangladesh; P* approach; forecasts; velocity gap model; price gap model; output gap model; financial sector; monetary targeting policy. |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2101&r=cwa |
| By: | Mohapatra, Sanket; Joseph, George; Ratha, Dilip |
| Abstract: | Macro- and micro-economic evidence suggests a positive role of remittances in preparing households against natural disasters and in coping with the loss afterwards. Analysis of cross-country macroeconomic data shows that remittances increase in the aftermath of natural disasters in countries that have a larger number of migrants abroad. Analysis of household survey data in Bangladesh shows that per capita consumption was higher in remittance-receiving households than in others after the 1998 flood. Ethiopian remittance-dependent households seem to use cash reserves rather than sell livestock to cope with drought. In Burkina Faso and Ghana, international remittance-receiving households, especially those receiving remittances from high-income developed countries, tend to have housing built of concrete rather than mud and greater access to communication equipment, suggesting that they are better prepared against natural disasters. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Access to Finance,Remittances,Natural Disasters,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2009–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4972&r=cwa |