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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Ang, James |
| Abstract: | While many developing countries have reformed their financial systems over the last few decades, how an increased level of financial liberalization affects the saving-investment relationship remains unclear. This paper examines the dynamic relationship between the domestic saving and investment rates in India by controlling for the level of financial liberalization. Using data over the period 1950-2005, the results indicate that greater financial liberalization enables more domestic resources to be channeled to investment activities. |
| Keywords: | Saving; Investment; Financial Liberalization; India. |
| JEL: | O53 O16 F21 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14498&r=cwa |
| By: | John Gilbert (Department of Economics and Finance, Utah State University) |
| Abstract: | We describe a new CGE model of South Asia, and its application to understanding the socio-economic aspects of SAFTA. The model currently covers India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, and the rest of South Asia. It is being expanded to include Nepal and Pakistan. The model incorporates modifications to the household structure to capture implications of reform for intra-household income changes. |
| Keywords: | SAFTA, CGE, Poverty |
| JEL: | F13 F17 C68 O53 |
| Date: | 2008–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usu:wpaper:200802&r=cwa |
| By: | K. Azim Ozdemir; Serkan Yigit |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0901&r=cwa |
| By: | Deininger, Klaus; Liu, Yanyan |
| Abstract: | Despite the popularity and unique nature of women's self-help groups in India, evidence of their economic impacts is scant. Based on two rounds of a 2,400 household panel, the authors use double differences, propensity score matching, and pipeline comparison to assess economic impacts of longer (2.5-3 years) exposure of a program that promoted and strengthened self-help programs in Andhra Pradesh in India. The analysis finds that longer program exposure has positive impacts on consumption, nutritional intake, and asset accumulation. Investigating heterogeneity of the impacts suggests that even the poorest households were able to benefit from the program. Furthermore, overall benefits would exceed program cost by a significant margin even under conservative assumptions. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,,Rural Poverty Reduction,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2009–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4886&r=cwa |
| By: | Finlay, Jocelyn E. |
| Abstract: | The event of a natural disaster, and being directly affected by it, brings a large shock to life-cycle outcomes. In addition to the replacement effects of higher fertility following a disaster that caused high mortality, a positive fertility response may be induced as children can be used to supplement household income. This paper analyzes three high mortality earthquakes: Gujarat, India, in 2001; North-West Frontier, Pakistan, in 2005; and Izmit, Turkey, in 1999. There is evidence of a positive fertility response to exposure to these large-scale natural disasters in addition to the response to child mortality. The results in this study are consistent with those of other studies that also find a positive fertility response following exposure to a disaster. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Natural Disasters,Hazard Risk Management,Youth and Governance,Street Children |
| Date: | 2009–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4883&r=cwa |
| By: | Ang, James |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to shed some light on the role of financial sector policies in generating new knowledge, drawing on the experience of one of the fastest growing and largest developing countries. Using relatively long time series data, the results in this paper indicate that interest rate restraints help generate knowledge in India’s economy. Other financial repressionist policies, in the form of high reserve and liquidity requirements as well as significant directed credit controls, appear to have a dampening effect on ideas production. The results lend some support to the argument that some form of financial sector reforms may help stimulate economic growth via increasing innovative activity. |
| Keywords: | financial sector policies; innovative activity; endogenous growth; India. |
| JEL: | E58 O53 O16 E44 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14495&r=cwa |
| By: | Ang, James |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal relationship between financial liberalization and income inequality using India as a case study. The results indicate that there exists a robust long-run relationship between financial liberalization and income inequality, and their causal relationship is a bi-directional one. |
| Keywords: | Financial liberalization; income inequality |
| JEL: | O53 O16 G28 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14496&r=cwa |
| By: | Dutta, Mousumi; Husain, Zakir |
| Abstract: | Becker’s analysis of crime and punishment has initiated a series of theoretical and empirical works investigating the determinants of crime. However, there is a dearth of literature in the context of developing countries. This paper is an attempt to address this deficiency. The paper investigates the relative impact of deterrence variables (load on police force, arrest rates, charge sheet rates, conviction rates and quick disposal of cases) and socio-economic variables (economic growth, poverty,, urbanization and education) on crime rates in India. State-level data is collected on the above variables for the period 1999 to 2005.Zellner’s SURE model is used to estimate the model. Subsequently, this is extended by introducing endogeneity. The results show that both deterrence and socioeconomic factors are important in explaining crime rates. However, some of their effects are different from that observed in studies for developed countries. |
| Keywords: | Crime; Deterrence; Growth; India; SURE Model. |
| JEL: | Z00 C30 |
| Date: | 2009–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14478&r=cwa |
| By: | John Gilbert (Department of Economics and Finance, Utah State University) |
| Abstract: | We review the literature on the relationship between trade policy reform and poverty, and recent approaches in the numerical simulation literature to estimating the impact of alternative trade reform scenarios. The GTAP model is then used to simulate the effect of the trade cooperation among the economies of BIMSTEC and Japan on aggregate welfare and poverty in the BIMSTEC member economies. As a case study, the results of the global model simulations are then used as an input to a more detailed model of simulation model of India, which identifies nine household groups classifed by their source of income and consumption pattern. Detailed estimates of the eect of trade reform at the household level are presented for India. |
| Keywords: | Trade reform, CGE, regional trading agreements, poverty, India, BIMSTEC |
| JEL: | F13 F17 C68 O53 |
| Date: | 2008–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usu:wpaper:200803&r=cwa |
| By: | Ekrem Erdem (Professor, Department of Economics, Erciyes University, Kayseri-Turkey); Saban Nazlioglu (Research Associate, Institute of Social Sciences, Erciyes University) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the determinants of Turkish agricultural exports to the European Union (EU) by estimating the gravity model for the panel of 23 trading partners in the EU covering the period 1996-2004. We find that Turkish agricultural exports to the EU are positively correlated with the size of the economy, the importer population, the Turkish population living in the EU countries, the non-Mediterranean climatic environment, and the membership to the EU-Turkey Customs Union Agreement while they are negatively correlated with agricultural arable land of the EU countries and geographical distance between Turkey and the EU countries. This paper was presented at the 18th International Conference of the International Trade and Finance Association, May 22, 2008, meeting at Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.Keywords: Gravity model, panel data, Turkish agricultural exports, the EU. JEL Classification: C23, F14. |
| Date: | 2008–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bep:itfapp:1126&r=cwa |
| By: | Deininger, Klaus; Liu, Yanyan |
| Abstract: | Although there has been considerable recent interest in micro-credit programs, rigorous evidence on the impacts of forming self-help groups to mobilize savings and foster social empowerment at the local level is virtually non-existent, despite a large number of programs following this pattern. The authors use a large household survey to assess the economic and social impacts of the formation of self-help groups in India. They find positive impacts on empowerment and nutritional intake in program areas overall and heterogeneity of impacts between members of pre-existing and newly formed groups, as well as non-participants. Female social and economic empowerment in program areas increased irrespective of participation status, suggesting positive externalities. Nutritional benefit was more pronounced for new participants than for members of pre-existing groups. Evidence of higher consumption - but not income or asset formation - by participants suggests that at the time of the survey, the program's main economic impact had been through consumption smoothing and diversification of income sources rather than exploitation of new income sources. Evaluation of such programs in ways that allow heterogeneity of program impact can yield highly policy-relevant insights. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,Housing&Human Habitats,Social Accountability,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis, |
| Date: | 2009–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4884&r=cwa |
| By: | Gupta, Abhay |
| Abstract: | This paper answers the puzzling questions that why under the similar set of economic conditions service sector in India grew while manufacturing could not and how economic reforms in 1990s accelerated the productivity growth. The paper provides a very innovative and convincing explanation. Two subtle but important distortion-inefficiency mechanisms, which work through distorting the intermediate input allocation, are identified in the paper. Interaction of policies of quantitative restrictions and inflexible labor laws resulted in lower than optimal materials per worker usage.Combination of high inflation and unavailability of credit exacerbated this factor distortion and lowered the productivity growth further. Using panel data on Indian industries, I find underutilization of materials compared to labor until recently. This sub-optimal materials per worker usage lowers productivity growth. Productivity estimates are negatively related to labor growth and positively related to materials growth. Real wages and labor productivity are negatively related to materials inflation and this relationship breaks down after the capital market reforms in 1990s. Since these mechanisms work through intermediate inputs, service sector productivity is not affected as adversely. Estimates show that after 1990s firms have started oversubstituting materials and capital relative to labor, which can explain the jobless growth in Indian manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | License Quota. Labor Laws. Price Change and Factor Substitution. Credit Constraints. Intermediate Inputs. Distortions and Productivity Growth. |
| JEL: | J08 C43 L6 D45 D24 O4 B41 |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14481&r=cwa |
| By: | de Arce, Rafael; Mahia, Ramon |
| Abstract: | In this paper one survey of econometrics modelling about migration flows determinants is carried out, with an extensive critical review of variables and methods used in recent literature. After it, a rigorous model to forecast migrations flows from Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey to EU is developed. The weight of network effects and potential migration in origin countries is pointed out and 15 years of forecast horizon is drawn. |
| Keywords: | migration determinants; migration econometric models; migration flows; EU-MPC migration |
| JEL: | F22 C23 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14547&r=cwa |
| By: | Deininger, Klaus; Liu, Yanyan |
| Abstract: | Despite their potential importance and ease of modification, impacts of monitoring and loan recovery arrangements on micro-credit groups'repayment performance have rarely been studied. Data on 3,350 expired group loans in 300 Indian villages highlight that regular monitoring and audits, high repayment frequency, consumption smoothing support through rice credit, and having group savings deposited with the lender all significantly increase repayment rates. Estimated magnitudes of their effects vastly exceed those of members'socio-economic characteristics. Significantly lower repayment on loans originating in externally provided grant resources suggests that stringent monitoring will be essential for these to have a sustainable impact. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,Debt Markets,,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress,Strategic Debt Management |
| Date: | 2009–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4885&r=cwa |
| By: | Szirmai, Adam (UNU-MERIT) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the emergence of manufacturing in developing countries in the period 1950-2005. It presents new data on structural change in a sample of 63 developing countries and 16 advanced economies. Industrialisation is seen as a single global process of structural change, in which separate countries follow different paths depending on their initial conditions and moment of their entry into the industrial race. With a few important exceptions such as Mexico, Brazil, India and China, developing countries embarked on industrialisation after 1945. The paper argues that successful catch up in developing countries is associated with industrialisation. It examines the theoretical and empirical for the thesis that industrialisation acts as an engine of growth and attempts to quantify different aspects of this debate. The statistical evidence is not straightforward. Manufacturing has been important for growth in developing countries, but not all expectations of the engine of growth hypothesis are borne out by the data. The more general historical evidence provides more support for the industrialisation thesis. |
| Keywords: | Structural Change, Manufacturing, Engine of Growth, Catching Up, Economic Growth |
| JEL: | O14 N60 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2009010&r=cwa |
| By: | Migheli Matteo |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the support to market competition by Indian and Chinese citizens. In particular I study the individual preferences with respect to some characteristics of a free and competitive market. The paper aims at establishing whether preferences in these countries are different and their evolution over the time. This is an important issue, as the economic literature shows that people’s preferences and policies tend to go hand in hand. This means that the analysis of today’s preferences and of their evolution over the time can be useful to forecast tomorrow’s policies. The main findings of this paper are that Indians and Chinese are different at supporting competition. The Chinese express preferences that are more in line with a free and competitive market, than Indians do. The detected time path reveals that this support has been decreasing over time during the last two decades. The two populations appear to be in favour of a capitalistic, but strictly regulated market. This can mean that the future economic policies of these Asian giants will tend to this direction. Apparently there are no risks for some form of capitalism, but likely the two countries will not adopt completely free and competitive market institutions. |
| Date: | 2009–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:200904&r=cwa |
| By: | Gupta, Abhay |
| Abstract: | Studies on Indian manufacturing have been unable to provide consistent estimates of productivity and its growth rates. This paper performs detailed and exhaustive set of accounting exercises for the period 1970-2003 using production function, index number and envelopment analysis methods. TFP growth rate average is 1.1% for both gross output based and net value added based measures. In gross output production, share of materials is 0.6, much larger than the capital and labor shares. Share of capital is constantly increasing. For the period just after the reforms (1991-1997), input growth jumps but TFP growth is negative. But after 1998, the trend reverses and output grows slowly despite negative input growth due to large TFP growth. Aggregated TFP growth rates (Domar-weighted and Fisher index) also follow the same pattern; showing upward trends after mid- 1990s. There are no significant differences in TFP growth rates among different-sized firms. After the reforms, TFP growth increases substantially in the public corporations. Productivity transition seems to be random across different (3-digit NIC code) industries. Industries with focus towards services experienced higher productivity growth than others. These results show that the lack of productivity growth was the reason for unimpressive performance of Indian manufacturing earlier. |
| Keywords: | Productivity Growth. Indian Manufacturing. Tornqvist Index. Reallocation. Envelopment and Frontier Analysis. Value-Added. TFP Decomposition. Domar Aggregation. |
| JEL: | J08 C43 L6 D45 D24 O4 B41 |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14482&r=cwa |
| By: | Rao, B. Bhaskara; Hassan, Gazi |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a framework to analyse the determinants of the long term growth rate of Bangladesh. It is based on the Solow (1956) growth model and its extension by Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992) and follows Senhadji’s (2000) growth accounting procedure to estimate total factor productivity (TFP). Our growth accounting exercise showed that growth rate in Bangladesh, until 1990, was due to factor accumulation. Since then, however, TFP made a small positive contribution to growth. An analysis of the determinants of TFP showed that remittances by emigrant workers have negative effects which seem to be due to the loss of skilled labour force. Using these results policy options, to double per capita income of Bangladesh in about 15 years, are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Solow Growth Model; Endogenous Growth; Total Factor Productivity; Growth Accounting; Remittances; Bangladesh |
| JEL: | O11 O30 A10 |
| Date: | 2009–04–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14470&r=cwa |
| By: | Fahri Unsal (Ithaca College, Ithaca, New York, USA); Nursel Ruzgar (Marmara University, Istanbul, Turkey); Bahadtin Ruzgar (Marmara University, Istanbul, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This study reviews the global trends in Internet access and concludes the rest of the world is rapidly catching up with the Western world. The study then shifts to the Turkish case and reports the findings of a survey conducted at a Turkish University that focused on Internet usage, online shopping and online banking. The results indicate that a large majority of the students have high-speed internet access and use it for a variety of purposes. Educational use tops the list. About 17 percent have been involved in online shopping during the last year. Only 17 percent did their banking online. Credit card security and privacy issues were the main deterrents for online shopping and online banking. The findings were compared with the results of another survey that was conducted in 2003. The comparisons indicate that there is more Internet access, more DSL/ADSL usage, and more online activities in 2008 compared to 2003.This paper was presented at the 18th International Conference of the International Trade and Finance Association, meeting May 23, 2008, at Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal. |
| Date: | 2008–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bep:itfapp:1127&r=cwa |
| By: | Nusrate Aziz (University of Birmingham); Nicholas Horsewood |
| Abstract: | The study focuses on the empirical modelling of the major determinants of imports demand of Bangladesh using annual data. We, not only, critically examine the determinants of imports demand following conventional wisdom but have taken into account some plausible new determinants like foreign exchange reserves and final expenditure components also. The paper investigates the impact of trade liberalizations as well. We finally employ the equilibrium correction mechanism (ECM) to investigate the short-run dynamics of imports demand. The estimated results demonstrate that the real GDP and relative prices of imports are statistically significant and show expected signs for Bangladesh. Relative imports prices is an important determinant of imports demand both in the short- and long-run. We find that the hypothesis of unit coefficient of income in the aggregate imports demand is apposite in Bangladeshi data. Trade liberalization could not make any special difference for the imports demand of the country. Finally, we argue on the basis of estimated results that the demand for Bangladeshi exports determines its aggregate imports demand. This paper was presented in the 18th International Conference, International Trade and Finance Association, Lisbon, Portugal, May 21-24, 2008. |
| Date: | 2008–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bep:itfapp:1114&r=cwa |
| By: | Rosita Chong (University Malaysia Sabah); Alex Anderson (Universiti Malaysia Sabah) |
| Abstract: | Faith and moral have not been the only factors that influenced people to invest ethically, but also their conscience too. People has long shun away from unethical forms of business activity. Therefore, many view that ethical investment overlaps Islamic investment. Though there are many similarities between them such as the prohibition of investment in business activities that are harmful to human being, and that both forms of investment required screening processes in order to determine the ethically acceptable form of investment. Nevertheless, there are some distinct differences. This is because Islamic investment is much more than merely investing activities as it is deeply rooted in the teaching of the Qur'an. Hence, principally the two types of investment are different. With the intense process of globalisation, there is a belief that they will converge. This study tries to show that while the types of investment possess similarities, however they differ in many aspects. This paper was presented May 22, 2008, at the 18th International Conference of the International Trade and Finance Association, meeting at Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.Key Words: Islamic investment, Ethical Investment, Converge |
| Date: | 2008–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bep:itfapp:1134&r=cwa |
| By: | Upali A Amarasinghe; Bharat R. Sharma; Mohammad Alauddin (School of Economics, The University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | Employing Bangladeshi district-level time series data as an empirical exploration this paper aims to: (1) estimate two measures of rice water productivity for the main crop seasons; (2) undertake a spatio-temporal analysis; and (3) identify ‘hot’ spots and ‘bright’ spots focusing on the Ganges-dependent (GDA) vis-à-vis other districts (NGDA). The paper finds that (1) kharif (wet) season rice water productivity grew much faster than for the rabi (dry) season across all districts. There was no significant correlation between seasonal growth rates although significant correlation existed between seasonal growth rates and the annual growth rate. Eight Ganges dependent districts experienced faster growth rate in kharif and overall productivity but their rabi season performance was slower relative to other districts. (2) Marginal productivity (MP) experienced fastest growth for the kharif season during 1968-1980. Up to 1990, there was no significant growth in rabi MP. Its growth declined in the 1980s but picked up since the early 1990s. (3) MPs products were slightly lower in the GDA districts for kharif and overall. The study did not find any consistent ‘hot’ spots or ‘bright’ spots in Bangladeshi rice water productivity. The process is highly groundwater intensive and is debatable whether it is sustainable. |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:386&r=cwa |