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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Das, Rituparna |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes to quantify the macroeconometric relationships among the variables broad money, lending by banks, price, and output in India using simultaneous equations system keeping in view the issue of endogeneity. |
| Keywords: | Money; Output; Price; WPI; IIP; Credit; Commercial Bank; Endogeneity |
| JEL: | C32 |
| Date: | 2009–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14252&r=cwa |
| By: | Ang, James |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of private consumption volatility in India. While considerable effort has been expended on the examining the relationship between growth and volatility, we focus on financial repression and private consumption volatility in India. Using annual time series data, the results show that the implementation of financial repressionist policies are strongly associated with lower consumption volatility in India. The results remain robust after controlling for a wide range of macroeconomic shocks and variables. Additional analysis which involves examining each component of private consumption provides further evidence to support this finding. The presence of a threshold effect suggests that the benefits of financial openness in dampening consumption volatility can only be reaped when India becomes sufficiently liberalized. |
| Keywords: | Growth volatility; financial repression; India. |
| JEL: | E58 O53 E44 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14412&r=cwa |
| By: | James, Ang |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of foreign aid in the process of economic development in India by controlling for the degree of financial liberalization. A composite index is constructed using the method of principal component analysis to capture the joint influence of various policies imposed on the Indian financial system. The results show that while foreign aid exerts a direct negative influence on output expansion, its indirect effect via financial liberalization is positive. Therefore, an important implication of the findings in this paper is that greater openness in the financial system of the host country is a crucial prerequisite to realize the effectiveness of foreign aid. Our results are robust to a number of control variables and estimation techniques. |
| Keywords: | Aid; financial liberalization; India. |
| JEL: | O53 O16 E44 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14411&r=cwa |
| By: | Ang, James; Sen, Kumal |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we provide a comparative account of the evolution of private saving in India and Malaysia, and analyze how policy changes in the financial sectors and pension systems help explain differences in their saving performance. Using the ARDL bounds estimation procedure, we find a fairly robust long-run relationship between private saving and its determinants in both countries. Consistent with the predictions made in the life cycle model, our results indicate that higher income growth stimulates private saving and an increase in age dependency retards private saving. The results provide some support for the hypothesis that financial liberalization results in lower private saving in both countries. The evidence also indicates that expected pension benefits tend to stimulate private saving in India, but that the reverse is found in Malaysia. |
| Keywords: | private savings; pension saving; financial liberalization; India; Malaysia |
| JEL: | Q16 Q53 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14413&r=cwa |
| By: | Kaivan Munshi; Mark Rosenzweig |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the hypothesis that the persistence of low spatial and marital mobility in rural India, despite increased growth rates and rising inequality in recent years, is due to the existence of sub-caste networks that provide mutual insurance to their members. Unique panel data providing information on income, assets, gifts, loans, consumption, marriage, and migration are used to link caste networks to household and aggregate mobility. Our key finding, consistent with the hypothesis that local risk-sharing networks restrict mobility, is that among households with the same (permanent) income, those in higher-income caste networks are more likely to participate in caste-based insurance arrangements and are less likely to both out-marry and out-migrate. At the aggregate level, the networks appear to have coped successfully with the rising inequality within sub-castes that accompanied the Green Revolution. The results suggest that caste networks will continue to smooth consumption in rural India for the foreseeable future, as they have for centuries, unless alternative consumption-smoothing mechanisms of comparable quality become available. |
| JEL: | J12 J61 O11 |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14850&r=cwa |
| By: | Ramaswamy R. Iyer |
| Abstract: | A comprehensive and logically rigorous analysis of the issues raised by the recommendation of the Chief Election Commissioner N.Gopalaswami for the removal of Election Commissioner Navin Chawla, the President’s rejection and the developments that followed. |
| Keywords: | Election Commission of India, EC, Election commissioner, removal of Election Commissioner, Political institutions, democracy, elections, Political Science |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:1881&r=cwa |
| By: | Hasan Ersel; Fatih Ozatay |
| Date: | 2009–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tob:wpaper:0902&r=cwa |
| By: | Ondřej Glazar (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Wadim Strielkowski (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic; University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes possible incidences of Turkish EU accession on the emigration from Turkey to the European Union. Panel data estimators are applied on the emigration data from EU-18 into Germany in order to construct possible future scenarios of Turkish migration to the EU. Eventual migration flows from Turkey into the EU are forecasted based on the estimated results. We find that seemingly unrelated regressor is the most efficient estimator that can be applied in Turkey-EU migration framework. Our results reveal that both the network effect and target country labour market conditions represent the strongest determinants for migration, whilst the effect of per capita income is actually relatively low. In particular, Turkish per capita income does not have nearly any effect on migration, because it enters the model in two variables that work against each other. Furthermore, a very low importance of opening the German labour market for Turkish migrants is found. Estimated coefficients are used to predict migrations to Germany and through appropriate extrapolations to the whole European Union (EU). Three scenarios of migration are created and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from Turkey into the Germany during next 25 years is further discussed in detail. |
| Keywords: | Economy of migration, Turkey, EU Enlargement, panel data, seemingly unrelated regression |
| JEL: | C33 F15 F22 J11 J61 |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2009_15&r=cwa |
| By: | Batabyal, Partha |
| Abstract: | Despite the considerable media attention being given to the financial meltdown there has been little attention on why this happened. This paper investigates into this matter and takes a very unique point of view. Whenever we talk about this matter we thought of liquidity crunch, sub prime crisis, high fiscal and trade deficit etc but we never think about parallel economy and money laundering. Here are some facts regarding this as-pect: the amount of money laundered in the whole world is close to $2.85 trillion per year. As per an estimate of International Monetary Fund the aggregate size of this un-derground and illegitimate market is between 2 to 5 percent of world’s gross domestic product. Criminals become wealthy enough to bribe officials and ensure their continu-ing profitability. Bribed officials becomes a mere puppet in their hands and act accord-ingly to their needs. Key media are controlled which prevents any publicity. Terrorist financing, drug trafficking and the black economy are nothing but the pitfalls of this growing menace. This is the biggest industry in the whole world. It is bigger than oil or arms for that matter. Many international money laundering rackets control the whole procedure. In this paper we have presented how parallel economy is affecting various developed and developing countries like U.S.A, U.K, Australia, India, China etc. We have also showed that how it is being done and who the main players behind conspir-acy are. This paper also prescribes the steps that are needed to be taken by the regula-tory bodies to control and regulate this matter. What financial restructuring that are needed to be done. We have also portrayed what are the loopholes that we have in our economy especially in money market and forex market. We have also analyzed and in-terpreted what are the levels of intensity of anti money laundering laws and what ef-fects they are having in their respective economy. We have suggested in this paper how we can cope with this situation by bringing some technical changes in our financial sys-tem. The main purpose of our paper is to show the areas we need to look at, to build a concrete economy, free of any type of black money. The new financial system should be equipped to tackle these frauds and take productive steps to counter them. There should be transparency in this whole process and no one should be spared if they are found guilty irrespective of position. |
| Keywords: | parallel economy; money laundering; India; recession; |
| JEL: | G0 |
| Date: | 2009–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14310&r=cwa |
| By: | Seckin, Aylin; Pollard, Richard |
| Abstract: | Home advantage is known to play an important role in the outcome of professional soccer games, and to vary considerably worldwide. In the Turkish Super League over the last 12 years, 61.5% of the total points gained have been won by the home team, a figure similar to the worldwide average and to the Premier League in England. It is lower (57.7%) for games played between teams from Istanbul and especially high for games involving teams from cities in the more remote and ethically distinct parts of Turkey (Van and Diyarbakir). Match performance data show that although home teams in Turkey take 26% more shots at goal than away teams, the success rates for shots do not differ. For fouls and disciplinary cards, home and away teams do not differ significantly in Turkey, a finding that that differs from games in England, perhaps due to less referee bias. |
| Keywords: | Home advantage;professional soccer |
| JEL: | L8 L83 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14323&r=cwa |
| By: | Ziaei, Sayyed Mahdi |
| Abstract: | In this empirical study, we perform cointegrated relation to analyze the effects of monetary policy on bank credit to private sector, foreign assets and foreign debts in ten MENA countries include: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Tunis and Turkey. There are two co-integration techniques, the Johanson co-integration and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) are used to examine long run relationship between the variables. The empirical evidences with aggregate data of ten MENA countries show that bank credit to private sector and foreign asset increasing with a monetary expansion. However, the positions of banks’ foreign debts aren’t similar for different countries. Hence, the aggregate data show that bank lending channel is likely to be an effective monetary transmission mechanism in MENA countries. |
| Keywords: | Bank Lending; Monetary Transmission; Capital Flows |
| JEL: | E51 F32 E52 |
| Date: | 2009–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14331&r=cwa |
| By: | Mahmoud, Chowdhury Shameem; Wadood, Syed Naimul; Ahmed, Kazi Sabbir |
| Abstract: | The public expenditure allocation in Bangladesh has played a substantial role in improvements of physical infrastructure, health, education, community development, etc. during the recent decades. There have been allegations that inequality in the distribution of political power has often led to some extent to a disproportionate public spending, which in turn may hinder prospects of poverty reduction. The current study aims to examine the research question of whether regional inequality issues are properly addressed within the framework of the public expenditure allocation in Bangladesh during the recent years and if not, whether this has been influenced by some other considerations, which are mainly political by nature. We analyze a panel data set where the dependent variable is the (greater district) per capita ADP allocation within a sector and the independent variables are some explanatory variables, and a variable of interest measuring the proportion of the total number of constituencies within the greater district that belongs to the political party in power. In summary, the study provides evidence of some in-built regional inequality features within the public expenditure allocation in Bangladesh in association with the political favoritism issues involved in a supposedly parliamentary democratic system. |
| Keywords: | Public Expenditure; Regional Inequality; Political Influence in Regional Distribution of Public Expenditure; Panel Data |
| JEL: | H72 H5 H76 C33 |
| Date: | 2008–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:14329&r=cwa |