|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Rao, R. Kavita (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:08/57&r=cwa |
| By: | Singh, Nirvikar; Srinivasan, T.N. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines India’s federal system in the context of prospects for India’s future economic growth and development. After a brief review of India’s recent policy reforms and economic development outcomes, and of the country’s federal institutions, the analysis focuses on the major issues with respect to India’s federal system in terms of their developmental consequences. We examine the impacts of tax assignments, expenditure authority and the intergovernmental transfer system on the following aspects of India’s economy and economic performance: the quality of governance and government expenditure, the efficiency of the tax system, the fiscal health of different tiers of government, and the impacts on growth and on regional inequality. In each case, we discuss recent and possible policy reforms. We make comparisons with China’s federal system where this is instructive for analyzing the Indian case. Finally, we provide a discussion of potential reforms of aspects of India’s federal institutions. |
| Keywords: | India; China; federalism; economic development;fiscal federalism; intergovernmental transfers; decentralization |
| JEL: | H1 H7 P35 H5 H2 P26 H6 |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12452&r=cwa |
| By: | Singh, Nirvikar |
| Abstract: | India is a large, heterogeneous and complex nation, with multiple languages, religions and ethnicities, and over one billion people. It stands out in having held together while sustaining a working democracy for over five decades, at relatively low levels of income. One of the main institutional aspects of managing heterogeneity to preserve national unity is the structures of Indian federalism. This paper traces some of the features of Indian federal institutions, focusing on their contribution to this ‘holding together.’ It reviews the conceptual and analytical underpinnings of the role of federal structures in sustaining unity, and summarizes historical developments and current institutional structures of the Indian case. It assesses the role of federal dimensions of political, administrative and judicial structures in the holding together function. It also examines fiscal federal institutions and their impacts, including distributional and growth issues. It also separately focuses specifically on the special treatment of what may be characterized as India’s periphery. |
| Keywords: | federalism; decentralization; intergovernmental relations |
| JEL: | H1 H7 P35 P26 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12432&r=cwa |
| By: | Selvarasu A.; José Filipe; Manuel A. Ferreira; Manuel Coelho |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp572008&r=cwa |
| By: | Inoue, Takeshi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causalities in mean and variance between stock returns and Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) in India. The analysis in this paper applies the Cross Correlation Function approach from Cheung and Ng (1996), and uses daily data for the timeframe of January 1999 to March 2008 divided into two periods before and after May 2003. Empirical results showed that there are uni-directional causalities in mean and variance from stock returns to FII flows irrelevant of the sample periods, while the reverse causalities in mean and variance are only found in the period beginning with 2003. These results point to FII flows having exerted an impact on the movement of Indian stock prices during the more recent period. |
| Keywords: | Causality, Cross correlation, Foreign institutional investment, India, Stock price |
| JEL: | E44 F21 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper180&r=cwa |
| By: | Engel, Nora (UNU-MERIT) |
| Abstract: | Tuberculosis remains the biggest infectious killer in India and worldwide, and it has recently regained substantial international attention with its come-back in drug resistant forms. The environment, the disease and the societal response to it are changing and with it challenges and opportunities to control the disease. Innovation in a variety of areas such as improved diagnostic tests, drugs, delivery mechanisms, service processes, institutions and treatment regimes is needed in order to be able to respond to the changing public health challenge. This paper reviews theoretical approaches to innovation of direct relevance to the case and examines what theoretical framework is useful to look at the problem of innovation in public health in India. Such an analysis can reveal drivers and barriers of change within the context of the Indian health system in a comprehensive, problem-oriented way and is thus able to add to existing research done on TB. However, given that TB control is a public health challenge, concerned with problems of delivery and implementation, the concept of innovation has to go beyond technological innovation and the private sector. Therefore it is argued that the case can simultaneously contribute to innovation theory in order to better understand what change processes and innovation for concrete public health challenges in a country such as India mean. After a short description of recent changes in TB control based on fieldwork in India the paper proceeds with an examination of existing frameworks on healthcare innovation upon their usefulness for such a case. The paper concludes with a proposal for a theoretical framework and areas for further empirical fieldwork. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Healthcare, Tuberculosis, Disease control, India |
| JEL: | I18 O31 O38 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2008077&r=cwa |
| By: | Pradhan, Jaya Prakash |
| Abstract: | This study has analyzed the overall and regional trends in Indian direct investment flows into developing region since 1960s and explored various development impacts they have on host developing countries. Evidence tends to indicate that developing region was the initial destination for Indian outward investing firms and continued to receive their attention over time. Developing region bound Indian FDI, which was led by a small group of Indian firms in a few selected developing countries in 1960s–80s, is now giving way to a more extensive pattern with large quantum of outward investment. A large number of Indian firms are undertaking increasing investment activities across different sub‐regional developing groups and for a variety of firm‐specific motivations. The fact that developing region oriented Indian firms are operating in knowledge‐based industries and are undertaking local production activities than simply performing sales promotional functions, their presence could be critical for host developing countries aspiring to build their domestic capability in such technology‐intensive industries. |
| Keywords: | FDI; India; Developing Countries |
| JEL: | R10 O18 F23 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12323&r=cwa |
| By: | Pradhan, Jaya Prakash |
| Abstract: | Indian FDI has been rapidly growing into developed region. As a result, developed region emerged as the largest host to Indian investment during 2000–07. An increasing number of firms from a wide range of economic activities are now undertaking FDI projects into developed countries. Considering this, the present study has explored the growth of developed region bound Indian FDI since 1960s and explored various developmental impacts they have on host economies. It is argued that Indian FDI can make contribution to development by making host country markets more competitive, reducing cost of products and services and increasing the range of consumer choice. However, the negative short-run impact of brownfield form of Indian FDI on local R&D and employment is clearly acknowledged. |
| Keywords: | Indian FDI; Developed Region |
| JEL: | F23 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12361&r=cwa |
| By: | Pradhan, Jaya Prakash |
| Abstract: | Since 1990s South-South investment flows have assumed a considerable significance in the economic relations among developing countries. The host developing countries tend to see the growing FDI flows from co-developing economies as a prospective source of financial capital, skills and technologies useful for their economic development. However, there is clearly a lack of recognition among them about the potential of southern investment in improving their civil, social and industrial infrastructure. A distinction can be made between the two main forms in which developing country firms participate in the infrastructure sector of co-developing countries. The first is the project exports resorted by southern firms in various infrastructure areas like transportation, communication, energy, etc. The second form comprises direct investment operation of southern firms to provide infrastructure services to the end users. India presents a classic example of South-South investment in infrastructure sector with Indian firms consistently expanding their project exports and infrastructure-related FDI activities over the years. In the light of growing size of Indian project exports and infrastructure FDI, this study calls for evolving a holistic policy framework by both home and host developing countries to enhance the potential of such investment for infrastructure development. |
| Keywords: | FDI; Project Exports; Developing Countries |
| JEL: | F23 F14 F21 R11 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12333&r=cwa |
| By: | Shah, Ajay (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic policy thinking in India has been rooted in an environment with five key parameters: agricultural shocks rather than a conventional business cycle, a closed economy, deeply distortionary tax policy coupled with a fiscal crisis, financial markets that lacked speculative price discovery, and a monetary policy shaped by deficit financing. This environment has been completely altered through India's integration into the world economy, the rise of one financial market (the equity market), the reduced importance of the monsoon, the rise of conventional business cycle dynamics, a partial abatement of the fiscal crisis and a monetary policy environment with loss of autonomy owing to exchange rate pegging. These changes call for a rethink of the macroeconomic policy framework. The agenda of assuring fiscal stability needs to be seen to its conclusion. Monetary policy and fiscal policy need to be converted into tools for macroeconomic stabilisation. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:08/51&r=cwa |
| By: | Engel, Nora (UNU-MERIT) |
| Abstract: | Emerging infectious diseases regained substantial international attention in recent years and it has been argued that flexibility and innovation in public health systems is needed in order to react to changing challenges. This paper will take these policy claims as a starting point to examine the case of multi-drug resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in India. Based on fieldwork results it will be examined how the existing control efforts of TB in India respond to the emergence of MDR-TB, what solutions are discussed for diagnosing, treating and preventing MDR-TB and what can be learned from that with regard to innovation and flexibility of a public health system in a country like India. The discussions and reactions to MDR-TB indicate that arguments for flexibility meet constraints of the existing control system and the Indian public health and wider social system. However, the flexibility that is argued for goes beyond what has been envisaged in international policy arenas (mainly focusing on preparation of various capacities in surveillance, detection and research). Rather it involves localized learning and experimenting within existing control structures that are claimed to have become too rigid in trying to keep up quality standards faced with a weakening public health system. Furthermore, the case shows that existing challenges in TB control resurface with the emergence of MDR-TB and reflect a difficult balancing act between biomedical values, socio-cultural values and operational feasibility. However, various actors are striving for change and it is in these instances that one can start to understand what flexibility and innovation could mean for a public health challenge such as TB in India. The paper concludes with an argument for a detailed analysis of these changes from an innovation perspective. |
| Keywords: | Tuberculosis, Multi-drug resistance, India, Innovation, Flexibility |
| JEL: | I18 O38 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2008076&r=cwa |
| By: | Shah, Ajay (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Patnaik, Ila (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | From the early 1990s, India embarked on easing capital controls. Liberalization emphasised openness towards equity flows, both FDI and portfolio flows. In particular, there are few barriers in the face of portfolio equity flows. In recent years, a massive increase in the value of foreign ownership of Indian equities has come about, largely reflecting improvements in the size, liquidity and corporate governance of Indian firms. While the system of capital controls appears formidable, the de facto openness on the ground is greater than is apparent, particularly because of the substantial enlargement of the current account. These changes to capital account openness were not accompanied by commensurate monetary policy reform. The monetary policy regime has consisted essentially of a pegged exchange rate to the US dollar throughout. Increasing openness on the capital account, coupled with exchange rate pegging, has led to a substantial loss of monetary policy autonomy. The logical way forward now consists of bringing the de jure capital controls uptodate with the de facto convertibility, and embarking on reforms of the monetary policy framework so as to shift the focus of monetary policy away from the exchange rate to domestic inflation. |
| Keywords: | International investment ; Long term capital movements ; International lending and debt problems ; Monetary systems |
| JEL: | F21 F34 E42 |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:08/52&r=cwa |
| By: | Bhattacharya, Rudrani (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Patnaik, Ila (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Shah, Ajay (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | In India, year-on-year percentage changes of price indexes are widely used as the measure of inflation. In terms of monthly data, each observation of a one-year change in inflation is the sum of twelve one month changes. This suggests that better information about inflationary pressures can be obtained using point-on-point monthly changes. This requires seasonal adjustment. We apply standard seasonal adjustment procedures in order to obtain a point-on-point seasonally adjusted monthly time-series of inflation in India. In three interesting high inflation episodes { 1994-95, 2007 and 2008 - we find that this data yields a faster and better understanding of inflationary pressures. |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:08/54&r=cwa |
| By: | Pillai N., Vijayamohanan |
| Abstract: | Electric power is so vital to both our economic and personal wellbeing that the erstwhile state policy in most of the developing countries, including India, had vested the power industry in the hands of the state as a promotional agency for subsidized supply. However, with the onset of the neo-liberalism in the wake of the fall (of the threat) of socialist alternative, the promotional orientation in the state policy had to give way to efficiency considerations in the sense of a neoclassical market economy. Thus has started the infamous power sector restructuring, the technical term for ultimate privatization. Radical policy changes were legislated in India and so far 13 States have reorganized their power sector; in Orissa, Delhi and Noida in Uttar Pradesh power distribution was entirely privatized. Kerala with a militant trade union presence has so far been dragging her feet, even in the face of the stern legislative requirement, portending an ultimate surrender. In this context the present paper attempts to draw some lessons from actual experiences elsewhere. |
| Keywords: | Power sector; restructuring; privatization; welfare; corruption; Kerala; |
| JEL: | H54 H40 Q48 L94 |
| Date: | 2008–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12334&r=cwa |
| By: | Crow, Ben; Singh , Nirvikar |
| Abstract: | International cooperation over the major rivers in South Asia took a new turn with the signing in 1996 and 1997 of five innovative water, power and economic cooperation agreements. The innovations include four elements: (i) the transfer of some previously diplomatic questions into the sphere of the private economy, (ii) bringing third parties, other than governments, into the design and negotiation of cooperative projects, (iii) the principle of sharing costs and benefits, and (iv) taking steps toward multilateral discussion. However, political and implementation challenges have remained, and have been exacerbated by looming water shortages as economies grow and climate change occurs. This paper examines how recent innovations in diplomacy may be extended to address these challenges. |
| Keywords: | international rivers; South Asia; multi-track diplomacy; cooperation |
| JEL: | D7 O13 Q01 Q25 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12433&r=cwa |
| By: | William R. Kerr (Harvard Business School, Entrepreneurial Management Unit); William F. Lincoln (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI) |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the impact of high-skilled immigrants on US technology formation. Specifically, we use reduced-form specifications that exploit large changes in the H-1B visa program. Fluctuations in H-1B admissions levels significantly influence the rate of Indian and Chinese patenting in cities and firms dependent upon the program relative to their peers. Most specifications find weak crowding-in effects or no effect at all for native patenting. Total invention increases with higher admission levels primarily through the direct contributions of ethnic inventors. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Research and Development, Patents, Scientists, Engineers, Inventors, H-1B, Immigration, Ethnicity, India, China, Endogenous Growth. |
| JEL: | F15 F22 J44 J61 O31 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hbs:wpaper:09-005&r=cwa |
| By: | Nagar, A.L. (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Shovon Ray, Amit; Sawhney, Aparna; Samanta, Sayan |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses interrelationships between `economic development', `health', and `environment' in a simultaneous equations framework. Four structural equations have been postulated to explain changes in four endogenous variables in terms of several predetermined variables. The endogenous variables chosen for the model are GDPPC (per capita gross domestic product), LE (life expectancy), NOCRD (number of cases of respiratory diseases) and PM10 (respirable suspended particulate matter). We assume that GDPPC describes economic development prominently and, therefore, use it as one of the endogenous variables in lieu of economic development. LE and NOCRD are assumed to reflect health effects in the economy, and PM10 is used as a proxy of environmental stress. The four endogenous variables are supposed to be jointly determined in terms of several exogenous variables represented through indices of physical infrastructure (PI), social infrastructure (SI) and air pollution index (API). We construct the three indices by the principal components method and thus effectively use only these three predetermined (exogenous) variables to simultaneously determine changes in the four endogenous variables listed above. The model is postulated in loglinear form and estimated by the two-stage least-squares method using data from the Indian economy 1980-81 to 2004-05. It follows from the estimated structural equations that while physical infrastructure is significant in determining GDPPC, the GDPPC is also directly influenced by improved health outcomes like longevity (LE) and lower morbidity from respiratory diseases (NOCRD). The long term health outcome (LE) is determined by the level of per capita GDP and it is positively affected by social infrastructure. The third structural equation shows that the immediate, or short run, health outcomes like morbidity from respiratory disorders are influenced by environmental stress (PM10) besides the level of GDPPC. Finally, the environmental stress (PM10) is determined by the level of per capita GDP and the air pollution index (API) representing various sources of air pollution. It is true that our simplified model illustrates the effects of specific type of air pollutant, viz., respirable particulate matter, however, it is among the most significant environmental problems threatening human health in India. Nevertheless, there is scope to build more comprehensive environmental stress indices which reflect surface water quality, ground water quality, soil pollution etc. which have feedback effects with health and economic development. Also many of the components of PI, SI and API may not be truly exogenous in a larger model (e.g. transport and communication in PI, education and health care systems in SI, and industrial production, vehicular traffic, urbanisation in API.) The two weaknesses of our model stem from data limitation and a concern to simplify the model. Although our model is highly simplified, nonetheless, it provides key insights into the nature of economic development in India during the last 25 years: First, the environmental stress has had a high cost on income and health . from the derived reduced form, a 1 percent increase in the air pollution index leads to a decrease of about 8 percent in the per capita income, a decrease of about 0.7 percent in the life expectancy, and an increase of about 19 percent in the number of cases of respiratory diseases. Second, the social infrastructure plays a more vital role in economic development, health, and environment than the physical infrastructure, since the absolute values of elasticities of endogenous variables with respect to SI are invariably greater than those with respect to PI. Although physical infrastructure is important for economic development, it comes in the last of our preference order. In the final run-up, there is need to pay more attention to provide better social infrastructure and to reduce air pollution. |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:08/56&r=cwa |
| By: | Singh, Nirvikar |
| Abstract: | This paper examines India’s development strategy, and to what extent it may be considered a success. It provides a brief history of why and how the strategy was adopted, as well as of its implementation, including the role of initial conditions, such as human capital, geographical location, and infrastructure. It analyzes the extent and reasons for success of the strategy, including policy, political economy, timing, and linkage of the strategy to economy-wide development. Particular attention is given to the relative roles of domestic and international actors, including the part played by foreign investment, trade, and other dimensions of openness. The paper considers the extent to which the strategy remain viable for the future, the challenges still faced, and what other strategies might be required. It concludes with possible lessons for other countries and their future development strategies. |
| Keywords: | development strategy; industrial policy; political economy; economic development |
| JEL: | O1 O53 O2 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12453&r=cwa |
| By: | Reddy, Y.V. (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | Given a parctitioner's perspective of fiscal policy and economic reforms based on his working experience from different Indian and International government institutions. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy ; Economic Reforms |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:08/53&r=cwa |
| By: | Patnaik, Ila (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Shah, Ajay (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how unhedged currency exposure of firms varies with changes in currency flexibility. A sequence of four time- periods with alternating high and low currency volatility in India provides a natural experiment in which changes in currency exposure of a panel of firms is measured, and the moral hazard versus incomplete markets hypotheses tested. We find that firms carried higher currency exposure in periods when the currency was less flexible. We also find homogeneity of views, where firms set themselves up to benefit from a rupee appreciation, in the later two periods. Our results support the moral hazard hypothesis that low currency flexibility encourages firms to hold unhedged exposure in response to implicit government guarantees. |
| Keywords: | Currency regime ; Currency exposure of firms ; Moral hazard ; One-way bets on exchange rates |
| JEL: | F31 G32 |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:08/50&r=cwa |
| By: | Pradhan, Jaya Prakash |
| Abstract: | A host of strategic government policies including a process patent regime led to the rise of Indian pharmaceutical firms with significant process development capabilities. With policies getting liberalized overtime and a product patent regime in place, now firms’ survival crucially depends on their abilities to develop new products and brand creating exercise. Indian pharmaceutical firms with their inadequate product development capabilities are clearly at serious risk. In this context, an increasing number of Indian pharmaceutical firms are observed to be using acquisition as a strategy to overcome their limited innovation strength by accessing new products and their technologies, skills and new markets. Overseas acquisitions represent both challenges and opportunities for Indian pharmaceutical firms aspiring to emerge as global entities based on advance technologies. |
| Keywords: | Indian pharmaceutical industry; Outward FDI; Overseas Acquisition |
| JEL: | L65 F23 F21 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12362&r=cwa |
| By: | Ajay Agrawal; Devesh Kapur; John McHale |
| Abstract: | The development prospects of a poor country depend in part on its capacity for innovation. The productivity of its innovators depends in turn on their access to technological knowledge. The emigration of highly skilled individuals weakens local knowledge networks (brain drain), but may also help remaining innovators access valuable knowledge accumulated abroad (brain bank). We develop a model in which the size of the optimal innovator diaspora depends on the competing strengths of co-location and diaspora effects for accessing knowledge. Then, using patent citation data associated with inventions from India, we estimate the key co-location and diaspora parameters; the net effect of innovator emigration is to harm domestic knowledge access, on average. However, knowledge access conferred by the diaspora is particularly valuable in the production of India's most important inventions as measured by citations received. Thus, our findings imply that the optimal emigration level may depend, at least partly, on the relative value resulting from the most cited compared to average inventions. |
| JEL: | O3 O33 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14592&r=cwa |
| By: | Pradhan, Jaya Prakash; Singh, Neelam |
| Abstract: | In recent years developing countries have emerged as significant participants in the OFDI (outward foreign direct investment) activities having the strategic asset seeking motive. Such OFDI which is assets exploiting cum augmenting involves potential two way cross border knowledge flows. This study examines these issues for the Indian automotive industry that is currently transnationalizing at a rapid rate in terms of both exports and OFDI. The study traces the technological capability building and several dimensions of OFDI in this industry. The case studies of two major automotive Groups highlight their competence building, and knowledge seeking operations. This study undertakes a quantitative analysis of the influence of OFDI activities on the in‐house (domestic) R&D performance of Indian automotive firms during 1988–2008. As expected, the favourable impacts on R&D intensity appear to be stronger for developed vs. developing host nations, and for joint venture vs. wholly‐owned ownership OFDI. The study concludes with suggestions to promote particularly the strategic asset enhancing OFDI. |
| Keywords: | OFDI; Strategic Assets‐seeking FDI; R&D; Automotive Industry |
| JEL: | F23 L62 O32 F21 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12332&r=cwa |
| By: | Saraswat, Deepak |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I will develop an insight into the growth process of Indian Economy and will find that increased inequality due to unconventional transitions have its negative implications for future growth prospects and the overall issue of sustainability. The objective of this paper is to throw light on theoretical concepts of growth process and to suggest some policies which are in line with the conventions and at the same time are well integrated with the contemporary Indian Economy. Issues like that of consumption inequality, labor mobility etc. have been identified as inhibiting factors for a smooth flow of transitions and with a sector specific analysis, have been dealt with, so as to remove them and make the transition process free flowing, which will bring about a sustainable long-run growth strategy. |
| Keywords: | Consumption Inequality; Labor Mobility |
| JEL: | O11 O42 O30 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12306&r=cwa |
| By: | Aristovnik, Aleksander |
| Abstract: | The paper’s main purpose is to assess the short-, medium- and long-term sustainability of fiscal policy in the great majority of the EU and non-EU member states in the Mediterranean Region. By using mainstream (primary fiscal gap) theory (proposed by Buiter (1983) and Blanchard (1990)), the difference between the required primary fiscal balance to GDP ratio and the actual primary fiscal balance to GDP ratio is calculated for selected Mediterranean countries. Based on simple mainstream theory measures of fiscal sustainability, the results indicate that fiscal sustainability seems to be a problem in many Mediterranean countries, particularly in Greece, Italy and France (in the EU Mediterranean region) as well as in Croatia, Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey (in the non-EU Mediterranean region). However, since the paper is dealing with an ex ante analysis on the grounds of ex post algebra of sustainability some caution should be exercised. |
| Keywords: | the Mediterranean region; public finance; fiscal sustainability; forecasting |
| JEL: | H60 H68 |
| Date: | 2008–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12317&r=cwa |
| By: | Ensar Yesilyurt (Department of Economics, Pamukkale University) |
| Abstract: | Long-term data are very important in that scientific researches that have economic and statistical applications arrive at meaningful results. However, especially the differences which occur in the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) system prevent long-term data from being gathered for many variables in particular. In other words, because Revise-2 and Revise-4 classification systems do not have a complete harmony, data can not be used efficiently. Revise-3 system has been used in Turkey since 1993. Therefore, a twenty-year series, for example, can not be obtained for sector-based (four-digit) studies in particular. In other words, the data either after or before 1993 can be used. This case prevents some economic realities being analyzed and other economic realities being learned. This study presents a proposal in solving this problem. By using eight- and nine-digit data in Revise-2 and Revise-3 systems, four-digit transformation ratios are calculated. The data sets that are used for this purpose are the production values that belong to the manufacturing industry, mining and stone quarry and energy, oil and water sectors. By using the obtained ratios, a data set that is classified according to revise-2 (revise-3) could be transformed into revise-3 (revise-2). |
| Keywords: | ISIC, Revise-2, Revise-3, Transformation ratio, Manufacturing Industry, Mining Industry, Energy, Gas and Water |
| JEL: | L5 P2 C1 C4 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ege:wpaper:0808&r=cwa |
| By: | Ibrahim L. Awad (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to answer the question of whether the switching to the Inflation Targeting (IT) regime is necessary for the Egyptian case or not? Our judgment of applying IT regime in the Egyptian economy is established on doubled criterion. That is, the practical experience of the inflation targeters, and the efficiency of Monetary Targeting Regime (MTR) in the case of Egypt. Defining the efficiency of a monetary policy regime by the efficiency of the embedded nominal anchor to send the right message to all practitioners about the potential behavior of the price level, I assessed the efficiency of MTR in Egypt by measuring; whether there is a relationship between money and prices, the stability of the velocity of circulation, and the stability of the demand for money function. The study concluded that MTR is not efficient to tie down individuals expectations about the future path of inflation in Egypt. Taking into account that IT regime is a way to reform monetary policy and it does not worsen economic performance it becomes necessary for Egypt to switch to the IT regime once the prerequisites for IT regime have been met. |
| Keywords: | inflation targeting; demand for money function; monetary policy in Egypt. |
| JEL: | E31 E41 E51 E52 E58 E59 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2008_34&r=cwa |
| By: | Hasan, Zubair |
| Abstract: | This paper explains the notion of market in historical perspective and the role markets play in free enterprise economies. It lists the major market failures and the role governments are expected to play in regulating and supplementing markets including the promotion of CSR from Islamic perspective. The discussion is limited to product and factor markets. |
| Keywords: | Market; Invisible hand; Market failures; Islam norms; Trade; Role of state; CSR |
| JEL: | F10 D41 E61 |
| Date: | 2008–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12233&r=cwa |
| By: | Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The Black Sea region comprises a heterogeneous group of countries: Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. Their economies differ in their size, institutional characteristics and integration perspectives, are facing vastly different problems, and find themselves at different levels of development. The economic performance of the region during the 1990s was highly unstable, and even the countries which were spared from internal conflicts did not fare much better than the rest. However, more recently, the region has enjoyed a fairly rapid economic recovery accompanied by welcome structural changes, although the labour market situation and social conditions in general are still very difficult. Both the economic heterogeneity of the Black Sea countries and political issues are crucial factors behind the presently rather low level of their regional integration: the latter generally proceeds only to the extent to which it is compatible with the (very unequal) format of these countries' relations with the EU. At the same time, multilateral integration under the auspices of Russia, which, given its economic size, could potentially serve as an alternative 'gravity centre', appears to be for a number of reasons equally problematic. In fact, the geographic trade patterns of the countries involved do not give an impression of the Black Sea region being a distinct trading block per se, and in those cases where important regional trade links do exist (Russia, Ukraine and Turkey), this seems to be explained first of all by these countries' size rather than by the fact that they are part of the Black Sea region. The outlook for the Black Sea countries is largely positive, with annual GDP growth in excess of 5% in the medium and long run being feasible. Apart from sound economic policies, it is especially the fostering of institutional reforms and the related improvements of the investment climate which will be indispensable for a lasting and sustainable economic development. More decisive steps towards regional and EU economic integration would undoubtedly be beneficial; however, such integration would require significant changes in the stance of regional (and EU) policymakers, a higher level of mutual trust, a solution of 'frozen conflicts', and - last but not least - ultimately hinges on cooperation prospects between Russia and the EU. |
| Keywords: | comparative study, economic development, foreign trade, integration, macroeconomic analysis |
| JEL: | O57 O1 F1 F15 E |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:349&r=cwa |
| By: | Alasrag, Hussien |
| Abstract: | Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a crucial role in the Egyptian economy, in term of their contribution to the GDP and total employment. Yet, their contribution in capital formation is very limited, mainly because of the finance constraints they face. Consequently, to improve the SMEs access to finance, the creation of a junior exchange is a must. In this context, the Cairo and Alexandria Stock Exchanges (CASE) just launched a new platform; that is Nile Stock Exchange with new listing rules and regulations that focus on a cost-effective regulatory regime adapted to the needs and characteristics of SMEs. This research aims to study the role of the Nile Stock Exchange in the development of Small and medium-sized enterprises in Egypt |
| Keywords: | SMEs; industrial structure; Stock Exchange; NILEX; Egypt |
| JEL: | L16 K22 G18 G28 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12364&r=cwa |
| By: | Meschi, Elena (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona); Taymaz, Erol (Middle East Technical University); Vivarelli, Marco (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we report evidence on the relationship between trade openness, technology adoption and relative demand for skilled labour in the Turkish manufacturing sector, using firm-level data over the period 1980-2001. In a dynamic panel data setting using a unique database of 17,462 firms, we estimate an augmented cost share equation whereby the wage bill share of skilled workers in a given firm is related to international exposure and technology adoption. Overall, results suggest that trade openness and technology play a key role in shifting the demand for labour towards more skilled workers within each firm. Technology-related variables (domestic R&D expenditures and technological transfer from abroad) are positive and significantly related to skill upgrading, as are the involvement of foreign capital in a firm's ownership and the propensity to export. Moreover, firms belonging to those sectors that most raised their imported inputs also experienced a higher increase in the labour cost share of skilled workers. This finding is consistent with the idea that imports by a middle-income country imply a transfer of new technologies that are more skill-intensive than those previously in use in domestic markets. This idea is reinforced by the finding that only imported inputs from industrialised countries − where the potential for innovation diffusion comes from - enter the estimated regression significantly. |
| Keywords: | globalisation, skills, skill-biased technological change, technology transfer, GMM-SYS |
| JEL: | F16 O15 O33 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3887&r=cwa |