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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Rao, R. Kavita (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:57&r=cwa |
| By: | Prasad, Eswar (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I analyze India's approach to capital account liberalization through the lens of the new literature on financial globalization. India's authorities have taken a cautious and calibrated path to capital account opening, which has served the economy well in terms of reducing its vulnerability to crises. By now, the capital account has become quite open and reversing this is not a viable option. Moreover, the remaining capital controls are rapidly becoming ineffective, making the debate about capital controls rather moot. Managing de facto financial integration into international capital markets and aligning domestic macroeconomic policies in a manner that maximizes the indirect benefits and reduces the risks is the key challenge now facing India's policymakers on this front. |
| Keywords: | India, international financial integration, capital flows, capital controls |
| JEL: | F3 F4 O2 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3838&r=cwa |
| By: | M. Shahid Ebrahim (Nottingham University Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper was refined during my sabbatical study at James Madison University (JMU). I appreciate the hospitality of JMU particularly that of Ehsan Ahmed. I have benefited from the critical comments of the participants of the seminars at James Madison University; University of Birmingham; University of Glasgow; the 2006 Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance (in Cyprus); the 2007 IIUM International Conference (in Malaysia); at the 2007 Workshop on Default Risk and Financial Distress (in Rennes, France), the 2007 Product Development and Management Association Conference (in Bangalore, India); the 2008 International Conference on Business and Finance (in Hyderabad, India); the 2008 International AREUEA Conference (in Istanbul, Turkey); the 2008 Workshop of European Network of the Economics of Religion (in Edinburgh, UK); and the 2008 Symposium on Religion, Markets and Society (in Nottingham, UK) on earlier drafts of the paper. I am also grateful to the following individuals for their helpful suggestions: Bruce Brunton, Humayon Dar, Mohammad Omar Farooq, Diana Mitlin, Kelly Morris, Peter Oliver, Barkley Rosser, Peer Smets, Ghulam Sorwar, Rafal Wojakowski and Robert Young. All remaining errors are mine. |
| Keywords: | ASCRA, Asset Bubble, Mutual Bank, Inflation, Mortgage Design,and ROSCA. |
| JEL: | C63 G21 G32 N25 O17 P13 R22 |
| Date: | 2008–10–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gra:paoner:08/04&r=cwa |
| By: | Angus Deaton (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | The Indian national sample surveys collect data on the unit values of a large number of foods which can be used to compute price index numbers that can be compared with the official national price indexes, the Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers (CPIAL) for rural India, and the Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPIIW) for urban India. Over the five years from 1999–2000 to 2004–05, the food component of the CPIAL understated the rate of food price inflation. This overstatement is likely attributable to the use of long outdated weights (from 1983), and the resultant overweighting of cereals, particularly coarse cereals, whose prices fell relative to other foods. The overall weight of food in the CPIAL is also too large, so that the growth in the general CPIAL was understated during this period when food prices fell relative to nonfood prices. Under conservative assumptions, I calculate that the 5 year growth in the reported CPIAL of 10.6 percent should have been 14.3 percent. Indian poverty lines are held constant in real terms and are updated using the food and non-food components of the official indices weighted by the food shares of households near the poverty line. Because these weights come from a 1973–4 survey, food is heavily over weighted for the contemporary poor, and the nominal poverty lines are understated, both because the CPIAL food index is understated, and because too much weight is assigned to food in a period when food prices have been falling relative to nonfood prices. As a result, and ignoring other problems with the counts (doubtful interstate and intersectoral price indexes and the growing discrepancy between surveys and national accounts), the official poverty counts for rural India in 2004–5 are too low; the official headcount ratio of 28.3 percent should be closer to 31 percent; at current rates of rural poverty reduction, this eliminates more than three years of progress. More generally, it is clear that the weights used for price indexes should be updated more frequently than is presently the case, something that could be straightforwardly done using India’s regular system of household expenditure surveys. |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:rpdevs:1008&r=cwa |
| By: | Ozgul Bilici (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics); Erkan Erdil (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University); I. Hakan Yetkiner (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to determine the role of EU in Turkey’s trade flows by using the gravity model. It also aims to test whether the Customs Union (of EU) that Turkey entered in 1996 made a deviation in Turkey’s trade flows. Regional trade agreements on the one hand create new trade opportunities (trade creation effect). On the other hand, these agreements may also lead to diversion from free trade (trade diversion effect). Turkey’s Customs Union agreement without becoming a member of EU provides a laboratory to researchers to test whether the agreement was significant enough to cause any deviation in Turkey’s trade flow. In the first part of the study, we shortly provide some descriptive statistics related to Turkey’s trade flows with EU to see whether EU has gained any weight in the flows. In the second part, we first develop a gravity model that econometrically designates the determinants of Turkey’s trade flows via panel data approach. Next, we use this equation to test the importance of EU countries in Turkey’s trade flow and whether the flow has been subject to a deviation after the Customs Union agreement. Our findings indicate that EU countries have always been important in Turkey’s trade flow and that Customs Union has increased EU’s importance marginally in determining Turkey’s trade flow. |
| Keywords: | Gravity model, Turkey, EU, Panel Data, Customs Union |
| JEL: | F02 F11 F13 F14 F21 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:izm:wpaper:0806&r=cwa |
| By: | Prakash Kannan |
| Abstract: | The Turkish economy is typically characterized as having particularly high real interest rates. Fundamental considerations, such as high growth rates or high returns to capital, do not provide a satisfactory resolution of this puzzle. Instead, we find that two other factors- doubts about the sustainability of disinflation and the existence of a risk premium-have a significant impact on the level of real interest rates in Turkey. Importantly, fiscal policy variables are shown to affect both these factors, suggesting that a more credible and prudent fiscal policy can help reduce real interest rates in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Interest rates , Turkey , Risk premium , Disinflation , Fiscal policy , Foreign exchange , Capital , Economic models , |
| Date: | 2008–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/251&r=cwa |
| By: | Mekala, G. D.; Davidson, B.; Samad, Madar; Boland, A. M. (Mekala, Gayathri Devi - PhD scholar, University of Melbourne, Australia; Davidson, Brian - Senior Lecturer, School of Resource Management, University of Melbourne, Australia; Samad, Madar - IWMI; Boland, Anne-Maree - Associate Partner, RM Consulting Group, Australia) |
| Keywords: | Water reuse / Recycling / Costs / Social aspects / Water quality / Water use / Water balance / Water market / Pricing / User charges / Water scarcity / Development projects / Developing countries / Developed countries |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwt:worppr:h041343&r=cwa |
| By: | Nagar, A.L. (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Shovon Ray, Amit; Sawhney, Aparna; Samanta, Sayan |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses interrelationships between `economic development', `health', and `environment' in a simultaneous equations framework. Four structural equations have been postulated to explain changes in four endogenous variables in terms of several predetermined variables. The endogenous variables chosen for the model are GDPPC (per capita gross domestic product), LE (life expectancy), NOCRD (number of cases of respiratory diseases) and PM10 (respirable suspended particulate matter). We assume that GDPPC describes economic development prominently and, therefore, use it as one of the endogenous variables in lieu of economic development. LE and NOCRD are assumed to reflect health effects in the economy, and PM10 is used as a proxy of environmental stress. The four endogenous variables are supposed to be jointly determined in terms of several exogenous variables represented through indices of physical infrastructure (PI), social infrastructure (SI) and air pollution index (API). We construct the three indices by the principal components method and thus effectively use only these three predetermined (exogenous) variables to simultaneously determine changes in the four endogenous variables listed above. The model is postulated in loglinear form and estimated by the two-stage least-squares method using data from the Indian economy 1980-81 to 2004-05. It follows from the estimated structural equations that while physical infrastructure is significant in determining GDPPC, the GDPPC is also directly influenced by improved health outcomes like longevity (LE) and lower morbidity from respiratory diseases (NOCRD). The long term health outcome (LE) is determined by the level of per capita GDP and it is positively affected by social infrastructure. The third structural equation shows that the immediate, or short run, health outcomes like morbidity from respiratory disorders are influenced by environmental stress (PM10) besides the level of GDPPC. Finally, the environmental stress (PM10) is determined by the level of per capita GDP and the air pollution index (API) representing various sources of air pollution. It is true that our simplified model illustrates the effects of specific type of air pollutant, viz., respirable particulate matter, however, it is among the most significant environmental problems threatening human health in India. Nevertheless, there is scope to build more comprehensive environmental stress indices which reflect surface water quality, ground water quality, soil pollution etc. which have feedback effects with health and economic development. Also many of the components of PI, SI and API may not be truly exogenous in a larger model (e.g. transport and communication in PI, education and health care systems in SI, and industrial production, vehicular traffic, urbanisation in API.) The two weaknesses of our model stem from data limitation and a concern to simplify the model. Although our model is highly simplified, nonetheless, it provides key insights into the nature of economic development in India during the last 25 years: First, the environmental stress has had a high cost on income and health . from the derived reduced form, a 1 percent increase in the air pollution index leads to a decrease of about 8 percent in the per capita income, a decrease of about 0.7 percent in the life expectancy, and an increase of about 19 percent in the number of cases of respiratory diseases. Second, the social infrastructure plays a more vital role in economic development, health, and environment than the physical infrastructure, since the absolute values of elasticities of endogenous variables with respect to SI are invariably greater than those with respect to PI. Although physical infrastructure is important for economic development, it comes in the last of our preference order. In the final run-up, there is need to pay more attention to provide better social infrastructure and to reduce air pollution. |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:56&r=cwa |
| By: | Patnaik, Ila (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Shah, Ajay (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how unhedged currency exposure of firms varies with changes in currency flexibility. A sequence of four time- periods with alternating high and low currency volatility in India provides a natural experiment in which changes in currency exposure of a panel of firms is measured, and the moral hazard versus incomplete markets hypotheses tested. We find that firms carried higher currency exposure in periods when the currency was less flexible. We also find homogeneity of views, where firms set themselves up to benefit from a rupee appreciation, in the later two periods. Our results support the moral hazard hypothesis that low currency flexibility encourages firms to hold unhedged exposure in response to implicit government guarantees. |
| Keywords: | Currency regime ; Currency exposure of firms ; Moral hazard ; One-way bets on exchange rates |
| JEL: | F31 G32 |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:50&r=cwa |
| By: | Angus Deaton (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between adult heights and the distribution of income across populations of individuals. There is a long literature that examines the relationship between mean adult heights and living standards. If adult height is set by the balance between food intake and charges to disease in early childhood, it is informative about economic and epidemiological conditions in childhood. Because taller populations are better-off, more productive, and live longer, the relationship between childhood conditions and adult height has become an important focus in the study of the relationship between health and wealth. Here I follow one of the tributaries of this main stream. A relationship between income and height at the individual level has implications for the effects of income inequality on the distribution of heights. These relationships parallel, but are somewhat more concrete than, the various relationships between income inequality and health that have been debated in the economic and epidemiological literatures, Richard G. Wilkinson (1996), Angus Deaton (2003). |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cheawb:1074&r=cwa |
| By: | Angus Deaton (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between adult heights and the distribution of income across populations of individuals. There is a long literature that examines the relationship between mean adult heights and living standards. If adult height is set by the balance between food intake and charges to disease in early childhood, it is informative about economic and epidemiological conditions in childhood. Because taller populations are better-off, more productive, and live longer, the relationship between childhood conditions and adult height has become an important focus in the study of the relationship between health and wealth. Here I follow one of the tributaries of this main stream. A relationship between income and height at the individual level has implications for the effects of income inequality on the distribution of heights. These relationships parallel, but are somewhat more concrete than, the various relationships between income inequality and health that have been debated in the economic and epidemiological literatures, Richard G. Wilkinson (1996), Angus Deaton (2003). |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cheawb:1022&r=cwa |
| By: | Angus Deaton (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between adult heights and the distribution of income across populations of individuals. There is a long literature that examines the relationship between mean adult heights and living standards. If adult height is set by the balance between food intake and charges to disease in early childhood, it is informative about economic and epidemiological conditions in childhood. Because taller populations are better-off, more productive, and live longer, the relationship between childhood conditions and adult height has become an important focus in the study of the relationship between health and wealth. Here I follow one of the tributaries of this main stream. A relationship between income and height at the individual level has implications for the effects of income inequality on the distribution of heights. These relationships parallel, but are somewhat more concrete than, the various relationships between income inequality and health that have been debated in the economic and epidemiological literatures, Richard G. Wilkinson (1996), Angus Deaton (2003). |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:rpdevs:1009&r=cwa |
| By: | Hasan, Zubair |
| Abstract: | Recently commodity murabaha has run into disrepute due to court decisions going against the use of this instrument in Islamic banks. This brief note argues that at fault has been the structure of contracts and the excessive use of the instrument. In principle, commodity murabaha is doubtless rooted deep in the Islamic Shari’ah. |
| Keywords: | Key words: Islamic finance; commodity murabaha; Time value in price; Shari’ah intention and spirit |
| JEL: | G21 |
| Date: | 2008–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11736&r=cwa |
| By: | Fabian Valencia |
| Abstract: | Periods of banking distress are often followed by sizable and long-lasting contractions in bank credit. They may be explained by a declined demand by financially impaired borrowers (the conventional financial accelerator) or by lower supply by capital-constrained banks, a "credit crunch". This paper develops a bank model to study credit crunches and their real effects. In this model, banks maintain a precautionary level of capital that serves as a smoothing mechanism to avert disruptions in the supply of credit when hit by small shocks. However, for larger shocks, highly persistent credit crunches may arise even when the impulse is a one time, non-serially correlated event. From a policy perspective, the model justifies the use of public funds to recapitalize banks following a significant deterioration in their capital position. |
| Keywords: | Banking crisis , Bank credit , External shocks , Liquidity management , Financial risk , Economic models , |
| Date: | 2008–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/248&r=cwa |
| By: | Badri, Balghis; Knuth, Hardine |
| Abstract: | This research is the outcome of fieldwork undertaken between November 2002 and 2003 in Al Gharaza village part of Khartoum State - the Sudan capital. The study focuses on identifying how spaces and times are interrelated and engendered. The forces that impact the creation of boundaries or those that direct change are analysed. How women€ٳ boundaries and spaces are defined and their interaction with them and bringing about new arrangements for spaces is discussed. How time is used, division of labour engendered, time conceptualized are highlighted. It is found that tradition and customs of exclusiveness as a value create a siege binding women spaces within the village and impact on their use of time: education is an important force that manages to crack the siege and open up to women some public space within the village. Outside forces for development or Islamization remained distant from the village; the villagers themselves desired a state of being apart from theses forces. The consequence is a situation of exclusiveness from both economic development efforts and political integration. The value of exclusiveness of €ܯthers€ݬ inclusiveness from within; of the €ܷeÂ€Ý and €ܴheyÂ€Ý have made the villagers to lead self-social development, which they desire and could afford, such as €ܢuilding schools and supporting teachers€ݮ The interface between development, culture and social structures of the village life became evident. Minimal outside efforts to introduce development did not sustain. This made villagers step forward to initiate their own development, while development they doubt its consequenses is resisted. However, the more villagers think that development will make them keep their integrity and exclusiveness; it is welcomed. On the other hand, the more it will lead to changing the social structure of exclusiveness and integrity, it is resisted. Hence, they did not encourage negotiating repairing the agricultural scheme water pump for fear that it will lead to redistribution of land ownership and bringing outsiders to the village. They kept to endogenous marriage for both genders, limiting women€ٳ movement outside the village through values of protection and honour keeping, all are mechanisms to maintain exclusiveness from strangers. The men as the key players, owners of assets and income, defined the boundaries for both genders, respected them and gave themselves the authority of decision taking both inside and outside the household and in the public arena. Both genders respect, acknowledge and seem satisfied with the social structure of defined spaces, time use and boundaries. The spaces are multidimensional and integrated with possibilities to stretch them through different direct and indirect strategies which women know how to manipulate and use. Zusammenfassung Der vorliegende Forschungsbericht basiert auf einer Feldforschung, die von November 2002 bis Ende 2003 in Al Gharaza, einem Dorf in Khartum State, durchgeführt wurde. Das Ziel der Untersuchung bestand darin zu untersuchen, wie Raum und Zeit miteinander verknüpft und wie sie geschlechtsspezifisch geprägt sind. Die begrenzenden Wirkungskräfte und die Faktoren, die sozialen Wandel einleiten, werden analysiert. Es wird diskutiert, wie die Räume der Frauen und ihre Grenzen definiert sind und wie neue Arrangements entstehen. Es wird herausgearbeitet, wie Zeit genutzt wird, welche Zeitkonzepte existieren und wie Arbeitsteilung geschlechtsspezifisch geprägt ist. Ergebnis der Untersuchung ist, dass Tradition und Exklusivität als zentraler Wert Frauen an das Dorf binden und die Verwendung ihrer Zeit bestimmen. Bildung ist ein wichtiger Faktor, Grenzen aufzubrechen und Frauen einen öffentlichen Raum im Dorf zu öffnen. Kräfte von außerhalb Â€Ó wie Entwicklung und Islamisierung Â€Ó bleiben fremd. Die Dorfbewohner selbst wollen sie vom Dorf fern halten. Daraus folgt ein Ausgeschlossensein von ökonomischer Entwicklung und politischer Integration. Die Betonung des Ausgeschlossenseins €ÞndererÂ€Ü und des Eingeschlossenseins innerhalb des Dorfes, die Teilung in €޷irÂ€Ü und €޳ieÂ€Ü führt dazu, dass die soziale Entwicklung des Dorfes, wie z.B. das Bauen von Schulen und die Unterstützung von Lehrern, Priorität haben. Die Verbindung von Entwicklung, Kultur und sozialen Strukturen des Dorfes wird dadurch wirksam. Kleine Bemühungen von außerhalb, €ޅntwicklungÂ€Ü in das Dorf zu bringen, waren nicht nachhaltig. Die Dorfbewohner unternehmen zwar Schritte, um Entwicklung in ihr Dorf zu bringen, leisten aber den Konsequenzen von Entwicklungsbemühungen, hinter denen sie nicht stehen, Widerstand. Immer wenn die Dorfbewohner davon ausgehen, dass Entwicklung ihnen ermöglicht, ihre Integrität und Exklusivität beizubehalten, ist diese willkommen. Andererseits wird Entwicklung Widerstand entgegengesetzt, wenn sie das bestehende System in Frage stellt. Zum Beispiel waren die Dorfbewohner nicht daran interessiert, Unterstützung für die Reparatur der Wasserpumpen im Bewässerungssystem zu bekommen, weil sie fürchteten, dass dies zu einer Umverteilung von Land führen könnte und Fremde in das Dorf kommen könnten. Die endogame Ehe wird weiter für beide Geschlechter bevorzugt. Frauen bleiben aufgrund der Vorstellungen von Ehre und Schutz auf das Dorf beschränkt. Alle diese Mechanismen dienen dazu, das Dorf vor dem Einfluss Fremder zu bewahren. Männer als die Schlüsselfiguren durch ihr Eigentum an Ressourcen und Einkommen definieren die Grenzen für beide Geschlechter und schreiben sich selbst Autorität und Entscheidungsmacht innerhalb und außerhalb des Haushaltes zu. Beide Geschlechter scheinen mit den sozialen Strukturen, durch die ihre Räume abgesteckt sind, zufrieden zu sein. Diese Räume haben viele Dimensionen und bieten Möglichkeiten der Erweiterung durch verschiedene direkte und indirekte Strategien, die die Frauen zu entwickeln und zu nutzen wissen. |
| Keywords: | Sudan, Women in rural areas, Space and time, Gender specific division of labour, Social change in rural areas, Frauen im ländlichen Raum, Raum und Zeit, Geschlechterspezifische Arbeitsteilung, Sozialer Wandel auf dem Lande, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development, Labor and Human Capital, |
| Date: | 2008–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:huiawp:43095&r=cwa |