|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Sen, Kunal |
| Abstract: | The Indian economy has observed significant trade reforms since the mid 1980s, and the Indian manufacturing sec-Dater has rapidly increased its integration with the world economy. In this paper, we ask the question: did the increased trade integration create or destroy jobs in the Indian manufacturing sec-Dater? We attempt -Date answer this question by employing a variety of methodological approaches ? fac-Dater content, growth accounting and econometric modelling. We also compare India?s employment outcomes with four other countries ? Bangladesh, Kenya, South Africa, and Vietnam ? where similar methodological approaches were used. We find that the impact of international trade on manufacturing employment seems -Date be similar -Date those found for the two African countries ? Kenya and South Africa ? rather than the two Asian countries ? Bangladesh and Vietnam. Thus, the overall effect of international trade on manufacturing employment has been minimal, a surprising result for a country with an apparent comparative advantage in labour-intensive manufacturing goods, and a large excess supply of unskilled labour. |
| Keywords: | international trade, manufacturing, employment, India |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-87&r=cwa |
| By: | Verma, Rubina |
| Abstract: | Following the economic liberalization in India, the service sec-Dater has gained prominence in the economy as it accounts for the largest share of GDP and, also that the share of this sec-Dater in GDP has been growing very rapidly. Empirical data reveal two significant trends in the service sec-Dater following liberalization in 1991: growth in service sec-Dater productivity and growth in services' trade. The objective of this paper is -Date build a simple three sec-Dater quantitative model which can capture the increase in the share of service sec-Dater in GDP after liberalization. Within the context of the model, there are two exogenous changes that occur across the two steady states years, 1980 and 1999: growth in sec-Dateral -Datetal fac-Dater productivity (TFP) and increase in the level of trade in industrial and service sec-Daters. The results Date a counterfactual experiment reveal that shutting down sec-Dateral TFP affects the ability of the model -Date capture the data trends whereas the absence of sec-Dateral trade negligibly affects the results. Hence I conclude that services' productivity growth versus the increase in services' trade can better explain the value added growth observed in the Indian service sec-Dater across the two steady states. |
| Keywords: | growth, trade, -Datetal fac-Dater productivity, services, India |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-72&r=cwa |
| By: | Nazmi, Nader; Revilla, Julio E. |
| Abstract: | We compare economic efficiencies in Brazil, India, and China, where economic efficiency measures the gap between potential and actual output for a given input combination and technological fac-Dater. We use s-Datechastic production frontier models -Date measure the contributions of fac-Daters of production and technology -Date growth and estimate non-positive error terms that capture production inefficiencies in each country. The results suggest that China and India had relatively inefficient production in the early 1980s but have since improved production efficiency substantially. In the same period, production efficiency in Brazil has declined somewhat Date relatively high initial levels and the gap between production efficiency between these countries has narrowed substantially, supporting more rapid growth in China and India relative -Date Brazil. |
| Keywords: | growth, trade, production |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-86&r=cwa |
| By: | Nayyar, Deepak |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts -Date analyse the economic implications of the rise of China, India, Brazil and South Africa, for developing countries situated in the wider context of the world economy. It examines the possible impact of their rapid growth on industrialized countries and developing countries, which could be complementary or competitive and, on balance, positive or negative. In doing so, it considers the main channels of transmission, -Date focus on international trade, investment, finance and migration. The essential question is whether, in times -Date come, these four countries could be the new engines of growth for the world economy. The answer is that rapid growth in China already supports growth elsewhere, so far primarily as a market for exports, while India and Brazil have the potential -Date provide similar support, but South Africa does not yet exhibit such a potential. In future, these countries could also provide resources for investment and technologies for productivity. The transformation and catch-up could span half a century or longer. Even so, rapid growth in these large emerging economies is already beginning -Date change the balance of economic power in the world. |
| Keywords: | China, India, Brazil, South Africa, growth, development, his-Datery, trade, investment, finance, migration |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:dp2008-05&r=cwa |
| By: | Baek, Jungho; Koo, Won W. |
| Abstract: | The cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction (VEC) model are applied to examine the short- and long-run relationships among foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth, and the environment in China and India. The results show that FDI inflow plays a pivotal role in determining the short- and long-run movement of economic growth through capital accumulation and technical spillovers in the two countries. However, FDI inflow in both countries is found to have a detrimental effect on environmental quality in both the short- and long-run, supporting pollution haven hypothesis. Finally, it is found that, in the short-run, there exists a unidirectional causality from FDI inflow to economic growth and the environment in China and India - a change in FDI inflow causes a consequence change in environmental quality and economic growth, but the reverse does not hold. |
| Keywords: | China, cointegration analysis, environment, FDI, India, vector error-correction, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea08:6508&r=cwa |
| By: | Deodhar, Satish Y.; Ganesh, Sankar; Chern, Wen S. |
| Abstract: | A random utility approach is used to estimate logit equations which indicate what factors affect the likelihood of consumption of non-GM and GM foods, and, whether or not consumers are willing to pay a premium for non-GM/GM foods. Ceteris paribus as the price difference between non-GM and GM food rose, people were more likely to consume GM foods. Likelihood of GM food consumption was higher in the middle income brackets. Consumers were willing to pay an expected premium of 19.5% and 16.12% for golden rice and GM edible oil respectively. In case of chicken, consumers seemed to pay a very negligible premium for non-GM fed chicken. Overall, it appears that GM foods may be acceptable in the Indian market. However, basic awareness about the GM foods may have to be created among the consumers through government ministries, consumer interest groups, and biotech food-crop companies. |
| Keywords: | GM Foods, Golden Rice, Bt cottonseed oil, GM fed chicken, Willingness to Pay, Random utility approach, Logit, India., Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Q13, D12, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea08:6348&r=cwa |
| By: | Muhammad, Zakaria |
| Abstract: | The paper critically evaluates investment climate in Pakistan. It covers incentives given by the government to domestic and foreign investors. Special emphasis is placed on identifying the barriers that discourage investment in Pakistan. Major impediments include high doing business cost, political instability, corruption, government bureaucracy, inconsistent government policies, and poor law and order situation. The paper also highlights some international best practice solutions to encourage investment in the country. Pakistan should attach short-term priority to attracting investment to foreign exchange earning sector or at least both the foreign exchange earning sector and other sectors simultaneously. |
| Keywords: | Growth; Foreign Investment; Portfolio Investment |
| JEL: | H54 E22 F21 |
| Date: | 2008–11–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11543&r=cwa |
| By: | Desai, Meghnad |
| Abstract: | This article views the four economies of the South in a long run his-Daterical perspective of 1500-2000. It contrasts the his-Datery and the initial endowments of the two Northern hemisphere economies China and India which are land scarce and labour abundant with the two Southern hemisphere economies Brazil and South Africa which are land abundant and labour scarce. It argues for different strategies for future growth and discusses impediments which may come in the paths of these four economies in the near future. |
| Keywords: | China, India, Brazil, South Africa, development, his-Datery |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:dp2008-02&r=cwa |
| By: | Holger Görg; Verena Lauber; Birgit Meyer; Peter Nunnenkamp |
| Abstract: | We contribute to the nascent literature on the heterogeneity of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and the relevance of firm characteristics for analyzing the determinants of outward foreign direct investment (FDI). The focus is on the role of firm-level heterogeneity when MNEs decide on the share of ownership in foreign affiliates. We combine two firm-specific datasets on German MNEs with varying equity stakes in Indian affiliates. The impact of firm characteristics on ownership shares is assessed in the context of OLS and fractional logit models, controlling for industry and location characteristics. We show that the effect of several characteristics differs between the establishment of new affiliates by German MNEs and their engagement in already existing Indian firms. Most notably, the productivity of the German parents matters only for ownership shares in new affiliates |
| Keywords: | multinational enterprises, firm characteristics, Indian locations, German FDI; ownership share; climate change, financial crises, the world trading system, oil supplies, immigration |
| JEL: | F23 L25 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1462&r=cwa |
| By: | Jan, Dawood; Chisti, Anwar; Eberle, Phillip |
| Abstract: | Replaced with revised version of paper 05/21/08. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea08:6241&r=cwa |
| By: | Gul, Adnan |
| Abstract: | Public debt is an important means of bridging government financing gaps. Effective and efficient utilization of public debt can increase economic growth. However, excessive reliance on public debt raises macroeconomic problems. A large gap between revenue and expenditure forces a country to obtain debt. Debt thus obtained further deteriorates expenditure side. High level of public debt holds back the government to meet its macroeconomic objectives of economic growth, price stability and a viable balance of payment. The major implications are sluggish economic growth, macroeconomic uncertainty, decreasing development, investment crowding out, inflation, higher unemployment, deteriorating social conditions and rising poverty causing economic destabilization which itself leads to destabilization of the state. Nation of such a country is often involved in corruption, organized riots, violent protests, strikes, man-slaughter, terrorism and other such crimes. In case of Pakistan, the major cause of poor economic performance is extraordinary burden of both domestic and external debt. The current situation is unsustainable and if it is not altered immediately than collapse of Pakistan’s economy is for certain. It is therefore essential for the government to plan and place policies and structural reforms to take charge of the havoc being played by unsustainable level of public debt. |
| Keywords: | Public Debt; Economic Growth; Macroeconomic Instability; Pakistan Economy |
| JEL: | H62 E62 H63 |
| Date: | 2008–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11427&r=cwa |
| By: | Deininger, Klaus; Liu, Yanyan |
| Abstract: | We use a combination of pipeline comparison, propensity score matching, and double differences to evaluate economic and social impacts of a large community driven development program in India. While we find positive empowerment and nutritional effects for households in program areas, allowing heterogeneity of program impact yields additional insights. First, social and economic empowerment increased equally for participants and non-participants in program areas, pointing towards positive externalities. Second, nutritional benefits were more pronounced for new participants than for members of pre-existing self-help groups who joined the program. Third, evidence of higher consumption -but not income or asset formation- by new and converted participants suggests that at the point of the survey, the program's main economic impact had been through consumption smoothing and diversification of income sources. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea08:6482&r=cwa |
| By: | Pircher, Marion |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the movement of capital flows -Date and Date the exchange rate regimes and monetary policies of China, India, Brazil, and South Africa (CIBS). Furthermore, we compare the level of financial stability, and the composition and duration of capital flows of the countries on a policy level according -Date the ? ?third generation? crisis models?; following which the East Asian Crisis of 1997/98 linkages between the corporate and financial sec-Daters, and foreign short-term debt are given further attention. The paper concludes by comparing all four countries and analysing possible risks in CIBS financial systems. |
| Keywords: | international financial markets, financial stability, capital flows, exchange rates, China, India, Brazil, South Africa |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-73&r=cwa |
| By: | Alpuerto, Vida; Norton, George W.; Alwang, Jeffrey |
| Abstract: | The benefits of developing and releasing salinity-tolerant and phosphorous-deficiency-tolerant rice in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and the Philippines were estimated for marker-assisted breeding as compared to conventional breeding using economic surplus analysis. Marker-assisted breeding is estimated to save at least 2 to 3 years in the breeding cycle and result in incremental benefits over 25 years in the range of $300 to $800 million depending on the country, stress, and time lags. Salinity and phosphorous deficient soils are difficult problems to solve through conventional breeding because of €ܧenetic loadÂ€Ý or undesirable traits that accompany desirable ones during backcrossing. MAB, enabled by advances in genomics and molecular mapping is more precise and hence time-saving. Solving salinity and P-deficiency problems is important, regardless of whether MAB or CB is used, as the cumulative benefits are at least $220 million and as much as $4 billion over the next 25 years depending on the problem and country. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea08:6421&r=cwa |
| By: | Singh, R.P.; Dhaliwal, H.S.; Humphreys, E.; Sidhu, H.S.; Manpreet-Singh; Yadvinder-Singh; Blackwell, John |
| Abstract: | Burning of rice stubbles is widely practised in Punjab, India, due to a lack of suitable machinery to direct drill wheat into combine-harvested rice residues. Although burning is a rapid and cheap option, and allows quick turn around between crops, it has serious effects on human and animal health due to air pollution, reduced soil fertility due to loss of nutrients and organic matter, and green house gas (GHG) emissions. The recently developed Happy Seeder (HS) overcomes the technical problems associated with direct drilling into rice residues. The primary aim of the present study was to conduct a preliminary evaluation of the direct financial benefits and costs to farmers of use of the HS in comparison with the current practices of straw burning followed by direct drilling or conventional tillage prior to sowing. The results of the evaluation suggest that the HS technology is more profitable than conventional cultivation or direct drilling after burning, and that it is viable for farmers from a financial perspective. The net present value (NPV) of the benefits is highly sensitive to yield; a 5% increase in yield with the HS doubles the increase in NPV of the HS over conventional tillage. The NPV is also quite sensitive to changes in herbicide use, and less sensitive to changes in irrigation water saving and discount rate. Furthermore, there are significant economic, community and environmental benefits through adoption of the technology. For widespread adoption of the technology, a range of potential mechanical, technical, social, institutional and policy constraints need to be considered and addressed in conjunction with a detailed economic assessment of the HS technology. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare08:5975&r=cwa |
| By: | Soyak, Alkan; Eroğlu, Nadir |
| Abstract: | Implementation of structural adjustment policies in Developing Countries (DCs) signifies a rupture from the development, modernisation and industrialisation policies which were under state’s control, contrary to the industrialised states’ experiences. Even though the intensity and extension of the state intervention vary, the very rupture engendered by structural adjustment policies has created many important influences in the states that have experienced this break-off pertaining to the protection of industry, marketing of agricultural products, distribution of foreign currencies and loans, arrangement of the foreign trade operations, arrangements related to the outside capital, technology and labour markets and collective agreements (Ghai, 1995:50). All these matters have become the objects of the transformation being experienced in the DCs’ development perception. The planned industrialisation and modernisation model basing upon import substitution that was put into effect in Turkey as from the early 1960s has toppled into a severe crisis as a result of the adjustment problems that became evident during the oil crisis of the early 1970s. Firstly, the growth rate slowed down, then it turned negative, inflation began to increase and since it was hardly possible to allocate funds for the funding of importation scarcity of goods has emerged in the internal market. Along with the chronic economic and socio-political crisis Turkey has come to the threshold of the parting of the ways in 1980. The Stability Measures of the 24th of January 1980, along with the acceleration of the military intervention of the 12th September, beyond maintaining short-term economic stability, also undertook a mission of launching “structural adjustment” and of changing long-term accumulation regime. Even though IMF supported stability programmes had been implemented before 1980 as a result of the relations with IMF, the 1980 programme and its aftermath differ by its content and influences; the structural adjustment policies of the IMF and World Bank became determinant on Turkey’s economic policies as from this date. (Soyak, 2006:140). |
| Keywords: | Development Planning and Policies; Structural Adjustment Policies;IMF and World Bank; Turkey |
| JEL: | O19 O21 |
| Date: | 2008–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11466&r=cwa |
| By: | Gottschalk, Ricardo; Azevedo Sodre, Cecilia |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the implications of the liberalization of capital outflows in China, India, Brazil, and South Africa (CIBS) for other developing countries. It focuses on their prospects of attracting not only foreign direct investment (FDI), but also portfolio capital flows Date CIBS. To inform the discussion, two steps are taken: first, in order -Date identify the type of capital flows that might come Date CIBS, the paper briefly describes capital account liberalization measures undertaken by CIBS -Date date and future intended liberalization. Second, it maps geographic distribution of outward FDI and foreign portfolio investment in the recent past, which are taken as possible predic-Daters of future flows. The paper shows that portfolio investment goes mainly -Date OECD countries and offshore financial centres, and only a small share -Date developing countries. But, within developing countries, CIBS? neighbouring countries have shown a greater ability -Date attract this type of investment, compared with other developing countries. |
| Keywords: | capital account liberalization, FDI, portfolio capital flows, south?south capital flows, developing countries |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-68&r=cwa |
| By: | Zanatta, Mariana; Strachman, Eduardo; Carvalho, Flavia; Varrichio, Pollyana C.; Camillo, Edilaine; Barra, Mariana |
| Abstract: | This paper is part of a project based on a broad data collection of policies in selected countries, with a special focus on the attraction of foreign R&D investments. The purpose of the research is -Date contribute -Date effective policy-making, capable of fostering multinational corporations? (MNCs) investments in Brazil. In this context, the paper aims at identifying and examining the main policies -Date attract MNC technological activities in China, India, Ireland, Israel, Singapore, and Taiwan, in order -Date illustrate successful experiences and, based on them, -Date analyse the Brazilian case. The experiences and, based on them, -Date analyse the Brazilian case. The international experiences are analysed bearing in mind that foreign direct investment (FDI) attraction policies are part of industrial and development policies, and should not be assessed or used in isolation. ... |
| Keywords: | industrial policy, technology, foreign direct investment, MNC R&D activites |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-69&r=cwa |
| By: | Akter, Sonia; Brouwer, Roy; Chowdhury, Saria; Aziz, Salina |
| Abstract: | The paper presents empirical evidence of the determinants of catastrophe insurance participation in one of the poorest and most disaster prone countries in the world. In a large-scale household survey carried out in 2006 we ask 3,000 residents in six different districts in Bangladesh facing various environmental risk exposure levels about their willingness to participate in a catastrophe insurance programme. Combining factors put forward in risk theory and economics, we estimate a model of insurance participation. We show that the household decision to participate in the insurance programme differs depending on both exogenous and endogenous risk exposure levels. As predicted by micro-economic theory, ability to pay, measured in terms of household income and access to credit, significantly affects insurance participation. Furthermore, among the sociodemographic factors investigated in this case study, respondent education and occupation are found to significantly influence household decision making. Our study suggests that low participation rates for catastrophe insurance in a developing country can be explained by high rates of illiteracy and limited access to credit. |
| Keywords: | Natural disasters, catastrophe, insurance, participation, risk, Bangladesh, Consumer/Household Economics, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development, Risk and Uncertainty, Q54, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare08:5984&r=cwa |
| By: | Duasa, Jarita |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the existence of income convergence or income divergence is investigated on ten selected OIC (the Organisation of Islamic Conference) economies. The results are then linked to the degree of openness of the countries using globalization indices. In order to investigate the existence of either income convergence or divergence between selected Islamic countries, income differentials between selected OIC countries and the benchmark country are computed and a series of test is done. The tests include stationary linearity test using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for linear time-series and non-linear stationary test using Kapetanois et al. (KSS) tests for non-linear time series. The findings are that most of the countries experience income divergence except for three countries. By analyzing the degree of globalization in these economies, it is found that the results support the endogeneous theory and depending approach which predict that globalization is likely to cause income divergence (inequality) rather than convergence (equality) |
| Keywords: | Income convergence; globalization; linear stationary test; non-linear stationary test |
| JEL: | O49 C12 F43 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11563&r=cwa |
| By: | James L. Butkiewicz (Department of Economics,University of Delaware); Halit Yanikkaya (Department of Economics,Gebze Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper reports the results of a study of the impact of government expenditures on economic growth, emphasizing how government effectiveness in developing nations influences the productivity of government spending. The effects of categories of government spending on growth are also examined. No significant positive effects are found for defense, education and health variables. Consumption expenditures have negative growth effects in developed and developing nations, with a more detrimental impact in developing nations with ineffective governments. Developing nations with ineffective governments benefit from capital expenditures. To stimulate growth, developing nations should limit their governments’ consumption spending and invest in infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Government spending, Institutional Quality, Economic Growth |
| JEL: | O33 R11 O47 O55 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dlw:wpaper:08-23.&r=cwa |
| By: | Schaeffer, Michael; Yilmaz, Serdar |
| Abstract: | In many developing and middle-income countries, decentralization reforms are promoting changes in governance structures that are reshaping the relationship between local governments and citizens. The success of these decentralization reforms depends on the existence of sound public financial systems both at the central and local levels. This paper focuses on the role of budgeting as a critical tool in reform efforts, highlighting problems that might impede successful local government budget development and implementation. The attainment of effective local government accountability and transparency is not an end itself, but rather it represents the means to support better decision-making on national and local budgeting. Community based schemes for enhancing local government accountability need to combine legal, political, and administrative mechanisms with proactive community involvement. Of particular importance are the legal and budgetary instruments that require input from local community members on certain local government decisions and instruments that increase accessibility for the press or the general public at large to information on government activities. |
| Keywords: | National Governance,Public Sector Expenditure Analysis&Management,Debt Markets,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,Public Sector Economics&Finance |
| Date: | 2008–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4767&r=cwa |