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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Ayla Ogus (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics); Niloufer Sohrabji (Department of Economics, Simmons College) |
| Abstract: | We test for sustainability of Turkey’s current account position between 1992 and 2007 using the intertemporal solvency model of Hakkio and Rush (1991) and Husted (1992). This approach examines the relationship between exports and imports+ (which include imports, net interest and unilateral transfer payments). Cointegration between inflows and outflows implies that the intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied. We use the Johansen and the Gregory and Hansen (1996) cointegration tests to determine linkages between exports and imports+ in Turkey. Using the Johansen test we find no cointegration and thus reject intertemporal solvency of the current account for this period. If we allow for a structural break in the cointegrating relation using the Gregory Hansen procedure we do find evidence of cointegration between the two series. This result can be used to estimate the long-run relationship between exports and imports+ using dynamic OLS and test for weak and strong sustainability of the current account position. We find evidence for weak sustainability but reject strong sustainability of the Turkish current account position in recent years. |
| Keywords: | Current account sustainability, intertemporal budget constraint, Turkey, cointegration |
| JEL: | F32 F41 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:izm:wpaper:0805&r=cwa |
| By: | Tosun, Mehmet Serkan; Yilmaz, Serdar |
| Abstract: | There have been important developments in the decentralization of the government structure in Turkey since the early 1980s. This paper examines economic development and growth in Turkish provinces. Although there is a rich literature on the economic effects of government decentralization from both developed and developing countries, these effects have not been examined widely in the context of Turkish local governments. The authors first describe changes since the early 1980s and recent reform efforts. They then provide an empirical analysis of the effects of decentralization in Turkish provinces using cross-sectional and panel data approaches. The panel dataset consists of 67 provinces from 1976 to 2001. The analysis examines whether variations in local decentralization across these provinces and across time have had a significant impact on economic development and growth in those provinces. The findings suggest a weak negative economic effect of decentralization through a number of municipalities per capita. However, the findings do not show any significant impact from the creation of new provinces by separation from the existing ones. |
| Keywords: | Municipal Financial Management,Economic Theory&Research,Regional Governance,Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations and Local Finance Management,Public Sector Management and Reform |
| Date: | 2008–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4725&r=cwa |
| By: | Barry Bosworth (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela); Susan M. Collins (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela); Aaron Flaaen (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela) |
| Abstract: | The United States' large and sustained trade deficit with Asia raises concerns in the United States about its competitiveness in the region. The purpose of this paper is to examine the patterns of U.S. trade relationships with China and India, and the factors that are influencing their evolution. In contrast to the current public policy debate, the discussion largely addresses how these two economies compare as markets for U.S. exporters. This paper begins by noting that U.S. exports to both countries do appear low relative to the performance of Japan and the EU-15. We examine potential explanations for the weak exports from three different perspectives. First, we analyze the composition of U.S. exports to these economies, and consider how this mix of products compares to those which it appears to be competitive in exporting to the rest of the world. Second, we examine the role of multinational corporations in facilitating the trade flows between the U.S and these two economies. Finally, we employ the use of "gravity equations" to examine the bilateral trade patterns while controlling for a variety of countryspecific characteristics, such as distance. In this context, we are also able to analyze the pattern of trade in services as well as the more traditional focus on goods trade. |
| Keywords: | China, India, United States, trade, and exports |
| JEL: | F14 F23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:icrier:220&r=cwa |
| By: | Sarmistha Pal; Sugata Ghosh |
| Abstract: | In the context of strikingly low literacy rates among Indian women and low caste popultaion, the paper explores whether and how far the interests of the marginalised poor are undermined by the dominant elite consisting mainly of the landed and the capitalists. We distinguish the dominant elite from the minority elite (i.e., elected women and low caste representatives in the ruling government) and also the marginalised as measured by the state poverty rate. Results based on the Indian state-level data suggest that a higher share of land held by the top 5% of the popultaion lowers public spending on education while presence of capitalist elite, as reflected in greater degree of industrialisation enhances it, even in poor states; the landed elite thus appears to be unresponsive to the underlying poverty rate. The effect of minority representation in the government appears to have a limited impact, indicating a possibility of their non-accountability to serve their cohorts and/or a possible allinace with the dominant elite. |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:edb:cedidp:08-15&r=cwa |
| By: | Mishra, SK |
| Abstract: | Professor Narmadeshwar Jha was a noted scholar on History of Economic Thought that took its shape under the influence of Alfred Marshall. His widely referred book - The Age of Marshall: Aspects of British Economic Thought, 1890-1915 – was written under the supervision of Professor A.J. Brown of Leeds (UK) and published with a commendatory foreword written by Sir Dennis H. Robertson. Professor Jha devised a methodology to conduct research in the history of economic ideas. This brief paper presents Professor Jha as a teacher, economist and scholar. |
| Keywords: | History of Economic Thought; Bhagalpur University; Bihar; India; Alfred Marshall; Institutional Economics; Will to economize; Rabindranath Tagore; Dennis H. Robertson; A. J. Brown; University of Leeds (UK) |
| JEL: | B31 A23 B13 B32 |
| Date: | 2008–09–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:10821&r=cwa |
| By: | Dracea, Raluca; Cristea, Mirela; Ionascu, Costel; Irtes, Meltem |
| Abstract: | The academic literature analyzes the fiscality concern from all points of view, and the question which pressed upon the theoreticians and also the practitioners of the last decades remains: which is the adequate level of the fiscality? The difficulty in answering the question consists in opposite interests: on one hand, the government is willing to acquire the highest level due to the ascendant tendency of public expenses; on the other hand, the tax payers long for a much reduced level in order to dispose of more financial funds. Considering the theory of Arthur Laffer as well as the premise that the taxation structure (flat or progressive tax) is less important than the general level of taxation (tax burden), the purpose of this paper consists in the empirical analysis of the correlation between the tax pressure rate, GDP and the tax incomes flux within two States which adopt different tax systems: Romania and Turkey. For this purpose, we have described the methodology of creating the Laffer curve for Romania and Turkey and we have applied the methods concerning the analysis between the GDP and real tax systems, as well as those methods which estimate the empirical tendency of the fiscality rate within the two States, mentioned above, taking into account the parameters which determine it. The conclusion indicates the existence of a correlation between the real GDP and the real tax incomes, strongly manifested in Turkey (progressive tax system) as compared to Romania (flat tax system). Romania provides an optimistic position, based on standard tendencies which confirm the theory of Arthur Laffer within other countries in Eastern Europe. |
| Keywords: | Laffer curve fiscality rate tax incomes static statistical analysis correlations |
| JEL: | E62 H21 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:10469&r=cwa |
| By: | Emre Ozsoz (Fordham University, Department of Economics); Erick W. Rengifo (Fordham University, Department of Economics); Dominick Salvatore (Fordham University, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In dollarized financial systems, there exists a currency mismatch risk that could lead to financial crises. Central Banks in such economies have to adjust their foreign currency policies accordingly. This paper estimates the probability of Central Bankers' intervention in the foreign currency markets in dollarized economies as explained by the volatility measures of the local exchange rate. By employing data from five countries, we show that in controlled inflation environments, not only Central Banks' interventions but also the direction of the interventions can be predicted to a good degree while under high inflation our model fails to provide healthy results. |
| Keywords: | Central Bank Intervention, Foreign Exchange Rates, Dollarization, Ordered Probit |
| JEL: | F31 E58 G15 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frd:wpaper:dp2008-16&r=cwa |