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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Jakob B. Madsen; Shishir Saxena; James B. Ang |
| Abstract: | Using over half a century of R&D data for India, this paper examines the extent to which India’s recent growth experience can be explained by R&D, international R&D spillovers, catch-up to the technology frontier and financial liberalization. Furthermore, the paper also tests whether any of the competing second-generation endogenous growth theories can explain India’s growth experience. The findings provide support for Schumpeterian growth theory and indicate that the recent high growth rates in India are likely to continue well into the future. |
| JEL: | O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:camaaa:2008-29&r=cwa |
| By: | Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya |
| Abstract: | We conduct an econometric analysis of socioeconomic, institutional and political factors determining government respect for human rights within India. Using time series cross-sectional data for 28 Indian states for the period 1993 – 2002, we find that internal threat poised by number of social violence events, presence of civil war and riot hit disturbed areas are strongly associated with human rights abuses. Amongst socioeconomic factors, ‘exclusive’ economic growth, ‘uneven’ development, poor social development spending, youth bulges and differential growth rates between minority religious groups explain the likelihood of human rights violations. Capturing power at the state and central level by Hindu national parties’ viz., Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena, further help understand the incidence of human rights violations within India. |
| JEL: | R59 P59 |
| Date: | 2008–08–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:10142&r=cwa |
| By: | Silvia Gaiani (Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | Agriculture is vital to India. It produces 23% of GDP, feeds a billion people and employs 66% of the workforce. Yet most Indian farmers have remained quite poor. The causes include remnants of scarcity-era regulation, an agricultural system based on small, inefficient landholdings and inadeguate trade channels and information infrastructures. In order to improve the trading system and to provide timely market information India has been experimenting in the last years the use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) to promote rural development. e-Choupal is the largest information technology-based intervention created in rural India by a corporate entity, the Indian Tobacco Company (ITC). Through the e-Choupal website, accessed from internet kiosks in rural villages, farmers can get information on best farming practices, prevailing market prices for their crops at home and abroad and the weather forecast – all in the local language. The overriding aim of my paper is to examine whether the use of e-Choupal for information dissemination and service delivery leads to improvements in farmers’ quality of decisions. The study is based on the primary data collected in 2006-2007 from 461 farmers in 8 districts of Uttar Pradesh, a State in the North West of India. The farmers included in the survey belong to user as well as non user groups of the e-initiative, which in Uttar Pradesh has been recently carried on both by ITC (a for profit company) and by UPBSN (a non profit company). The data on impact of usage or non-usage of e-Choupals on decision-making, collected using a structured questionnaire survey, is tested by computing chi-square statistic: differences between users and non users are analyzed on multidimensional aspects related to agricultural decisions. Divergences have been also underlined in the impact on users of ITC e-Choupal and UPBSN e-Choupal. |
| Keywords: | E-commerce, Rural Development, ICT, Uttar Pradesh, India |
| JEL: | Q13 Z10 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bag:deiawp:8002&r=cwa |
| By: | Bharadwaj, Prashant (Yale U); Khwaja, Asim Ijaz (Harvard U); Mian, Atif (U of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | The partition of India in 1947 along ostensibly religious lines into India, Pakistan, and what eventually became Bangladesh resulted in one of the largest and most rapid migrations in human history. We compile district level census data from archives to quantify the scale of migratory flows across the sub-continent. We estimate total migratory inflows of 14.5 million and outflows of 17.9 million, implying 3.4 million "missing" people. We also uncover a substantial degree of regional variability. Flows were much larger along the western border, higher in cities and areas close to the border, and dependent heavily on the size of the "minority" religious group. The migratory flows also display a "relative replacement effect" with in-migrants moving to places that saw greater out-migration. |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp08-029&r=cwa |
| By: | Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya |
| Abstract: | I investigate whether timing of the elections impact economic globalization process or not in India. In other words, do elections slowdown economic globalization process? The theoretical underpinning is that, policies of economic globalization lead to economic and social hardships in short run but benefit the economy in the long run. The motto behind slowing down the economic globalization process before elections is that it leads to polarization of voters and thus negatively affects the incumbent government. I make use of Axel Dreher’s economic globalization index and construct ‘instrumental electoral cycle’ to capture the scheduled and midterm election cycle. Using time series data for India for the period 1970 – 2006, I find that scheduled elections are associated with slow down in economic globalization, whereas midterm elections are not. Replacing Dreher’s economic globalization index with our modified globalization index does not alter the results. I also find that slow down in economic globalization process is responsive to the propinquity to a schedule election year. Meaning, as incumbent government nears the schedule elections, economic globalization process keeps slowing down, while this is exactly opposite during the early years of incumbent government in office. These results suggest that elections generate “electoral globalization cycle” in developing democratic country like India. |
| Keywords: | Economic globalization; Election cycles; India |
| JEL: | D72 |
| Date: | 2008–08–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:10139&r=cwa |
| By: | Shah, Ajay (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic policy thinking in India has been rooted in an environment with five key parameters: agricultural shocks rather than a conventional business cycle, a closed economy, deeply distortionary tax policy coupled with a fiscal crisis, financial markets that lacked speculative price discovery, and a monetary policy shaped by deficit financing. This environment has been completely altered through India's integration into the world economy, the rise of one financial market (the equity market), the reduced importance of the monsoon, the rise of conventional business cycle dynamics, a partial abatement of the fiscal crisis and a monetary policy environment with loss of autonomy owing to exchange rate pegging. These changes call for a rethink of the macroeconomic policy framework. The agenda of assuring fiscal stability needs to be seen to its conclusion. Monetary policy and fiscal policy need to be converted into tools for macroeconomic stabilisation. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:51&r=cwa |
| By: | Kumar, Surender |
| Abstract: | Sustainability requires that the productive base measured in terms of comprehensive wealth of a society should be increasing on per capita basis. Comprehensive wealth includes manufactured, human and natural capital along with knowledge base and institutions. This study offers methodological improvements and provides estimates of the growth rate of per capita comprehensive wealth over the period 1970-2006 for Indian economy. It considers air, water and soil degradation along with energy, minerals and forests depletion. To measure the value and composition of investment in natural capital, it estimates resource depreciation allowances on the basis of Hotelling rent; it adjusts education expenditure for depreciation in human capital; and uses the estimates of TFP that takes into account natural capital in the production of commodities and services. The empirical application suggests that Indian economy is barely sustainable. Growth rate of per capita comprehensive wealth was virtually near zero, it was only 0.15 percent per year for the study period. The growth rate was negative till 1983. Thereafter it became positive; however it was less than one percent in 1980s and 1990s. In recent years the growth rate was about 4 percent. Despite certain limitations, the study underscores the need for vigorous public policies that help in preventing excessive resource depletion and promoting higher genuine investment. |
| Keywords: | Sustainability; development; Comprehensive wealth; Hotelling rent; India |
| JEL: | E01 Q01 |
| Date: | 2008–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:10086&r=cwa |
| By: | K. Azim Ozdemir; Mesut SaygÝlÝ |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0808&r=cwa |
| By: | Raghbendra Jha; Raghav Gaiha; Shylashri Shankar |
| Abstract: | This paper presents results on the participation of rural workers in the National Rural Employment Guarantee Program based on a pilot survey of three villages in Udaipur district, Rajasthan, India. Three villages (Dhundiya, Karanpur and Prithvisingh Ji Ka Khera) were covered. Total number of households interviewed in December, 2007, was 340. Here the focus is on participation in NREG of different socio-economic groups and the determinants of the participation of these groups. It is discovered that the mean participation was 59 days and that targeting was efficient with other labour, self employed in agriculture, SC and ST as well as those with smaller landholdings benefiting the most from the program. Thus the performance of the National Rural Employment Guarantee program has been far from dismal. |
| Keywords: | National Rural Employment Guarantee Program |
| JEL: | C25 C81 D69 I38 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2008-01&r=cwa |
| By: | Bhattacharya, Rudrani (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Patnaik, Ila (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Shah, Ajay (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | In India, year-on-year percentage changes of price indexes are widely used as the measure of ination. In terms of monthly data, each ob- servation of a one-year change in ination is the sum of twelve one- month changes. This suggests that better information about ination- ary pressures can be obtained using point-on-point monthly changes. This requires seasonal adjustment. We apply standard seasonal ad- justment procedures in order to obtain a point-on-point seasonally adjusted monthly time-series of ination in India. In three interesting high ination episodes { 1994-95, 2007 and 2008 - we nd that this data yields a faster and better understanding of inationary pressures. |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:54&r=cwa |
| By: | Shah, Ajay (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Patnaik, Ila (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | From the early 1990s, India embarked on easing capital controls. Liberalization emphasised openness towards equity flows, both FDI and portfolio flows. In particular, there are few barriers in the face of portfolio equity flows. In recent years, a massive increase in the value of foreign ownership of Indian equities has come about, largely reflecting improvements in the size, liquidity and corporate governance of Indian firms. While the system of capital controls appears formidable, the de facto openness on the ground is greater than is apparent, particularly because of the substantial enlargement of the current account. These changes to capital account openness were not accompanied by commensurate monetary policy reform. The monetary policy regime has consisted essentially of a pegged exchange rate to the US dollar throughout. Increasing openness on the capital account, coupled with exchange rate pegging, has led to a substantial loss of monetary policy autonomy. The logical way forward now consists of bringing the de jure capital controls uptodate with the de facto convertibility, and embarking on reforms of the monetary policy framework so as to shift the focus of monetary policy away from the exchange rate to domestic inflation. |
| Keywords: | International investment ; Long term capital movements ; International lending and debt problems ; Monetary sysytems |
| JEL: | F21 F34 E42 |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:52&r=cwa |
| By: | Simon Deakin; Panicos Demetriades; Gregory James |
| Abstract: | We use a new legal dataset tracking changes in creditor protection law over several decades to study the impact of legal reforms on banking system development in India. Cointegration analysis is used to show that the strengthening of creditor rights in relation to the enforcement of security interests in the 1990s and 2000s led to an increase in bank credit. We show that the change in the law was not endogenous to trends in stock market development and GDP per capita, and that the direction of causation ran from legal reform to banking development, rather than the reverse. |
| Keywords: | creditor rights; legal origin; banking development; India |
| JEL: | G21 G38 K22 O16 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lec:leecon:08/25&r=cwa |
| By: | Mehtabul Azam (Southern Methodist University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines changes in the wage structure in urban India during the past two decades (1983-2004) across the entire wage distribution using the Machado and Mata (2005) decomposition approach. Real wages increased throughout the wage distribution during 1983-1993; however, it increased only in the upper half of the wage distribution during 1993-2004. Quantile regression analysis reveals that the effects of many covariates are not constant across the wage distribution. Moreover, increases in returns to covariates across the entire distribution are the driving forces behind the wage changes in both decades. Change in composition of the work force contributed positively to wage growth during 1983-1993, but negatively during 1993-2004. Finally, while workers with all education levels experienced an increase in returns of roughly the same magnitude during 1983-1993, the increase in returns is much higher for workers with tertiary and secondary education during 1993-2004. The inequality increasing effects of tertiary education suggests that wage inequality in urban India may increase further in the near future as more workers get tertiary education. |
| Keywords: | earning functions, India, quantile regression decomposition, wage. |
| JEL: | J30 J31 C15 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smu:ecowpa:0807&r=cwa |
| By: | Kumar, Surender |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the role of intergovernmental fiscal transfers in achieving environmental sustainability. Although the significance of socio-economic functions has a comparably long tradition in federal systems of countries including India, the respective consideration of environmental services is yet to be recognized. Assignment of responsibility for protecting the environment is very much clear in India, the genesis of environmental degradation could be found in the incentive structure of governance. Though environmental services are not directly considered in intergovernmental transfers, they find place in the grants-in-aid. About 35 percent of total grants-in-aid recommended by the 12th Finance Commission are for the provision of environmental services, and are given for developing end-of-pipe infrastructure. Precautionary activities such as nature conservation, landscape protection are never considered. The review of international practices highlights the Brazilian case to learn from. In Paraná (a Brazilian state) the area conserved increased by 165 percent in a span of nine years. The study underscores the need for both, lump-sum and earmarked grants for internalizing the spillover effects. Earmarked grants are better suited for environmental clean up activities, and lump-sum transfers based on a predefined formula are good candidates for precautionary activities. An illustration demonstrates that inclusion of forest cover in the disbursement formula not only help in internalizing the externalities but also make the transfers more progressive. Financial acknowledgment of the environmental services would raise environmental awareness and provide incentives for enhancing environmental services. The inclusion of environmental services in the allocation of fiscal transfers would also help in reducing poverty and regional disparities. |
| Keywords: | Environmental services; Fiscal federalism; spatial externalities; environmental expenditure; India |
| JEL: | H77 Q01 |
| Date: | 2008–08–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:10188&r=cwa |
| By: | Dass Rajanish, Bajaj R. K. |
| Abstract: | A National ID for all citizens and residents of India has long being considered a critical necessity, albeit the related projects have been in pilot mode for the past several years and no distinct road ahead seems to be coming out. The government has been focusing on inclusive growth and has launched several schemes at different levels to facilitate the same. However, monitoring the execution of these schemes and understanding clearly if the targeted citizens actually have got benefited, would demand for substantial granularity of information and doing away with information bottlenecks. Interestingly, proper execution of the National ID project by the government can prove to be useful for execution of various schemes and projects as well as in accessing multiple government and private sector services. This paper focuses on the need for a single national identity system in India and its proposed execution which may actually be linked to citizen life cycle. The other aspects covered and analyzed include current Indian scenario, challenges, existing identification systems and loopholes in the existing systems. Major challenges seem to be coming from enrolments, technology platform choice and strategic design, corresponding policy and legal frameworks. The paper also discusses about international scenario of single national id projects undertaken in 27 countries across the globe to understand current status, adoption and usage. To reinforce the need for national ID, the existing IDs were analysed based on a scoring model considering various dimensions. Primary research was conducted, based on which it was found none of the existing IDs was able to satisfy as a National ID based on the scoring model. The proposed road map has been discussed in length i.e technology platform, smart card technology, legal and administrative framework, business model based on Private-Public Partnership (PPP) considering the mammoth and diverse population. A ranking matrix may be created to come up with a composite score for all districts based on various dimensions. The execution may be planned to be executed without asking Indians to stand in queue for one more ID and accelerating towards a more secured society and more importantly ensuring better delivery of Government services to citizens. |
| Date: | 2008–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2008-08-04&r=cwa |
| By: | Cutler, David (Harvard U); Fung, Winnie; Kremer, Michael; Singhal, Monica |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of malaria on educational attainment by exploiting geographic variation in malaria prevalence in India prior to a nationwide eradication program in the 1950s. Malaria eradication resulted in gains in literacy and primary school completion rates of approximately 12 percentage points. These estimates imply that the eradication of malaria can explain about half of the gains in these measures of educational attainment between the pre- and post-eradication periods in areas where malaria was prevalent. The effects are not present in urban areas, where malaria was not considered to be a problem in the pre-eradication period. The results cannot be explained by convergence across areas. We find gains for both men and women as well as for members of scheduled castes and tribes, a traditionally disadvantaged group. |
| JEL: | H51 |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp07-051&r=cwa |
| By: | Raghbendra Jha; Raghav Gaiha; Shylashri Shankar |
| Abstract: | This paper, a sequel to our earlier paper on Rajasthan, presents results on the participation of rural workers in the National Rural Employment Guarantee Programme based on a pilot survey of three villages in the Chittoor district, Andhra Pradesh, India. These villages are Kaligiri, Obulayyapale and Reddivaripalle and were surveyed in December 2007. In contrast to Rajasthan, SC and ST participated in higher numbers in AP, but in both states these groups participated for slightly lower spells than the residual group of 'Others'. We find that AP performed better than Rajasthan in terms of targeting poorer caste and income groups such as SC, ST and landless households. The number of days worked on average was much higher than suggested by other assessments. Our econometric analysis further reinforces the view that not only disadvantaged groups are more likely to participate but also for longer spells. Thus the performance of the National Rural Employment Guarantee programme has been far from dismal. |
| Keywords: | National Rural Employment Guarantee Program |
| JEL: | C25 C81 D69 I38 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2008-05&r=cwa |
| By: | Santiago Herrera; Ferhan Salman |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0807&r=cwa |
| By: | Reddy, Y.V. (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | Given a parctitioner's perspective of fiscal policy and economic reforms based on his working experience from different Indian and International government institutions. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy ; Economic Reforms |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:53&r=cwa |
| By: | Secil Pacaci Elitok; Al Campbell |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to test the existence of balance of a payments constraint on the long run economic growth of the Turkish economy. The balance of payments constrained growth (BPCG) model which was developed by Thirlwall (1979) and extended by Thirlwall and Hussain (1982) is tested over the period of 1960-2004 using OLS. Empirical findings of this paper support the BPCG model for the whole period under consideration. For the different sub-periods, there are either different essential economic relations or behaviors behind the BOP constraint. |
| Keywords: | Balance of payments constraint, Turkey, economic growth, international trade, elasticity, neo-liberalism |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F41 F43 E12 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uta:papers:2008_13&r=cwa |
| By: | Sambit Bhattacharyya |
| Abstract: | The sharp division between the 'institutions view' and the 'disease view' has been one of the distinctive features of the 'root causes of economic progress' literature. Based on evidence from cross-national data, the 'institutions school' claims that institutions are the only root cause of development, whereas the 'disease school' claims that diseases are also equally important. In this paper, I contribute to this literature by proposing a unified structure to marry the two conflicting views. I argue that overcoming diseases are of prime importance at an early stage of economic development, whereas institutions are more important at a later stage. I find support for this hypothesis in the development history literature on Africa, India, China and the Americas. |
| Keywords: | Root Causes; Institutions; Diseases; Economic Development |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2008-15&r=cwa |
| By: | Beaman, Lori (University of California, Berkeley and Northwestern University); Chattopadhyay, Raghebendra (Indian Institute of Management); Duflo, Esther (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Pande, Rohini (Harvard U); Topalova, Petia (International Monetary Fund) |
| Abstract: | We exploit random assignment of gender quotas across Indian village councils to investigate whether having a female chief councillor affects public opinion towards female leaders. Villagers who have never been required to have a female leader prefer male leaders and perceive hypothetical female leaders as less effective than their male counterparts, when stated performance is identical. Exposure to a female leader does not alter villagers' taste preference for male leaders. However, it weakens stereotypes about gender roles in the public and domestic spheres and eliminates the negative bias in how female leaders' effectiveness is perceived among male villagers. Female villagers exhibit less prior bias, but are also less likely to know about or participate in local politics; as a result, their attitudes are largely unaffected. Consistent with our experimental findings, villagers rate their women leaders as less effective when exposed to them for the first, but not second, time. These changes in attitude are electorally meaningful: after 10 years of the quota policy, women are more likely to stand for and win free seats in villages that have been continuously required to have a female chief councillor. |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp08-037&r=cwa |
| By: | Clingingsmith, David (Case Western Reserve U); Khwaja, Asim Ijaz (Harvard U); Kremer, Michael |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact on pilgrims of performing the Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Our method compares successful and unsuccessful applicants in a lottery used by Pakistan to allocate Hajj visas. Pilgrim accounts stress that the Hajj leads to a feeling of unity with fellow Muslims, but outsiders have sometimes feared that this could be accompanied by antipathy toward non-Muslims. We find that participation in the Hajj increases observance of global Islamic practices such as prayer and fasting while decreasing participation in localized practices and beliefs such as the use of amulets and dowry. It increases belief in equality and harmony among ethnic groups and Islamic sects and leads to more favorable attitudes toward women, including greater acceptance of female education and employment. Increased unity within the Islamic world is not accompanied by antipathy toward non-Muslims. Instead, Hajjis show increased belief in peace, and in equality and harmony among adherents of different religions. The evidence suggests that these changes are more a result of exposure to and interaction with Hajjis from around the world, rather than religious instruction or a changed social role of pilgrims upon return. |
| JEL: | D02 |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp08-022&r=cwa |
| By: | Gurun, Ayfer (Southern Methodist University); Millimet, Daniel L. (Southern Methodist University) |
| Abstract: | We assess the causal effect of private tutoring on the probability of university placement in Turkey. We find that tutoring increases the probability of being placed in a university when non-random selection is ignored. Moreover, among those utilizing private tutoring, greater expenditure on tutoring is also positively associated with university placement. However, we find evidence of positive selection into tutoring, but negative selection into greater expenditures among those receiving tutoring. Accounting for this pattern of non-random selection, we conclude that private tutoring has a negative causal effect on university placement overall, but conditional on receiving any tutoring, spending more on tutoring has a positive causal effect on university placement. |
| Keywords: | tutoring, Turkey, tertiary education, program evaluation |
| JEL: | C31 H51 I21 O15 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3637&r=cwa |
| By: | Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Tugrul Gurgur; Fethi Ogunc |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0809&r=cwa |