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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Zahra Karimi |
| Abstract: | The process of economic globalization has winners and losers. Iran’s carpet industry provides a good illustration of the adverse side of this process. As the production costs of its rivals have fallen, surging international trade has reduced the market share of Iran's labor-intensive products, especially Persian carpets. This paper reports the findings of an informal survey of carpet weavers conducted in and around the Iranian city of Kashan, showing how harsh international competition has reduced the weavers’ real wages and restructured the labor force of the industry in Iran. Middle-income families have left the industry, and poor Afghan immigrant householders and their children are increasingly taking the place of Iranian weavers. Furthermore, weaving is consistent with the subordinate position of women carpet weavers within the household; as a form of employment, it has hardly affected the social status quo. |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_540&r=cwa |
| By: | Shafaeddin, Mehdi |
| Abstract: | Knocked-down Agriculture After De-industrialization; Another Destructive Influence of Neo-liberalism M. Shafaeddin* Abstract The author shows that although some short term factors have contributed to the recent food crisis in developing countries, the crisis is rooted mainly in agricultural support policies of developed countries, liberalization of the agricultural sector by developing countries and contradictions in the design and implementation of GATT/WTO rules. Agricultural liberalization has been imposed on lower-income countries by International Financial Institutions (IFIs) and through bilateral trade agreements between developed and developing countries. The Neo-liberal economic philosophies, as well as unequal power relations between developing and developed countries, have been main contributory factors. There is a danger that further pressure on developing countries during the Doha Round may result in an outcome undermining development of the agricultural sector of developing countries further. The result would be intensification of dependence of lower-income countries on food imports, knocked-down agriculture and economic and political dependence on developed countries. A radical change in the trading system, practices of IFIs and policies of developed countries is required. Developing countries have little power to bring about such changes, but they can try to change their own policies. To do so it is not easy to resist pressure from developed countries and IFIs, but it is absolutely necessary if they do not wish to sacrifice their long-term development and well being of their population. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------*. The author is a development economist affiliated to the Economic Research Institute, University of Neuchatel, Switzerland and international consultant in trade and industrial policies and management of competitiveness. He is the author of Trade Policy at the Crossroads; Recent Experience of Developing Countries, Palgrave, Macmillan and numerous articles on development policy issues in international journals Comments are welcome and can be sent to him through: M.Shafaeddi@Gmail.com. |
| Keywords: | Food; WTO; trade liberalization; food supply; international financial institutions |
| JEL: | F13 O10 Q18 N50 F10 Q17 B13 Q10 |
| Date: | 2008–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9713&r=cwa |
| By: | Aamer Abu-Qarn (Department of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev); Suleiman Abu-Bader (Department of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causal relationships between the military expenditures and military burden of the four major sides of the Israeli-Arab conflict, namely, Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria over the period 1960-2004. We utilize both the causality test suggested by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition method of Pesaran and Shin (1998). Our findings suggest weak causality that runs usually from Israel’s to Arab’s military spending. The strongest links are between Israel and Syria that are still in a state of enmity. No causality was detected between Israel’s and Jordan’s military spending. |
| Keywords: | Arms race, Middle East, Israeli-Arab conflict, Causality, Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition |
| JEL: | H56 D74 O53 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bgu:wpaper:251&r=cwa |
| By: | Guncavdi, Oner; Kucukcifci, Suat |
| Abstract: | The Turkish economy has undergone drastic structural changes since 1980. While the effects of the Turkish adjustment programme have drawn considerable attention, a few studies have investigated its employment impacts. Unlike neoclassical expectation behind the structural adjustment programme, some studies for Turkey have showed that this policy change in 1980 caused a decline in employment. Results show that the Turkish industrialisation strategy cannot be regarded as export-led industrialisation strategy. Extra output created by exports has been very limited during the post-liberalisation period. However domestic final demand has continued to be the most dominant determinant of output growth. A Surprising result of the paper appears for the period of 1985-1990 when import substitution in final demand created output growth particularly in technology-intensive manufacturing and other manufacturing sectors. However import penetration in final and intermediate goods overwhelmingly important factors creating de-industrialisation in the period of 1990-1996. This paper, however, examines the sources of changes in employment. Despite neoclassical expectations, the reform period after 1982 witnessed large factor substitution against labour, even in the tradable goods sector. Additionally, labour demand also appears to response to output growth less in the post-liberalisation period than before. |
| Keywords: | Structural changes; employment; input-output; trade reform; Turkey |
| JEL: | D57 O16 F14 R15 |
| Date: | 2008–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9624&r=cwa |
| By: | Guncavdi, Oner; Ulengin, Burc |
| Abstract: | After the economic turmoil in 2001, the Turkish economy quickly recovered, and exhibited distinguished economic performance in successive years without any interruption. This success can be considered as a product of favourable international economic conditions, sound macroeconomic reforms, the beginning of the accession talks with the EU and political stability with a single party government. All these favourable conditions have allowed the Turkish economy to not have experienced any financial restraints in financing this distinguished economic performance. While increased expenditure, particularly in consumption and investment, together with high foreign demand for Turkish production, appear to have played an important role in these growth rates, the economy has begun to experience a large surge in imports and current account deficits in response to an increase in domestic expenditure. The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of macroeconomic components of aggregate expenditure in determining import demand in Turkey. Along with the empirical assessment, the paper also suggests a theoretical model of import demand, which is built upon a utility maximization of a country subject to budget constraints. The empirical model derived as a dynamic form of linear expenditure system was estimated with quarterly data from the Turkish economy for the period of 1987-2006. The results show that consumption and expenditure are two important demand components in determining imports in the long run whereas only the growth rates of consumption and investment are dominant factors in the short run. Public expenditure appeared to have no significant impact on import demand in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Aggregate Imports; Linear Expenditure System; Turkey; Error-Correction Model. |
| JEL: | O11 O24 F14 F43 |
| Date: | 2008–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9622&r=cwa |
| By: | Guncvadi, Oner |
| Abstract: | This article examines whether or not the recent surge in the availability of international liquidity helps Turkey revive private investment expenditure. Unlike previous studies, this paper indicates that an increased availability of financial resources after 2002 played a detrimental role in the recent recovery of private investment in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Private investment; financial constraints; international liquidity; Turkey |
| JEL: | E62 E22 E44 |
| Date: | 2008–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9620&r=cwa |
| By: | Akarca, Ali T. |
| Abstract: | In the 2002 Turkish parliamentary election, more than half of the voters cast their ballots for a party different than the one they chose in 1999. The outcomes of these elections are analyzed at the provincial level, through a system of regression equations. The results obtained indicate that votes moved from the Virtue, Nationalist Action, Motherland and True Path parties to the Justice and Development Party, from the Democratic Left Party to the Republican People’s and Young parties, and from the Democratic Left, Nationalist Action and Motherland parties to the True Path Party. The Justice and Development Party, the ruling party since 2002, is found to have captured all of the far-right Islamist, about half of the far-right nationalist, and half of the center-right votes. |
| Keywords: | Elections; Voter behavior; Party preference; Turkey |
| JEL: | D72 |
| Date: | 2008–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9627&r=cwa |
| By: | A. Nazif Catik (Department of Economics, Ege University); Christopher Martin (Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University); A. Özlem Önder (Department of Economics, Ege University) |
| Abstract: | We argue that relative price changes are a key component of the Phillips curve relationship between inflation and output. Building on work by Ball and Mankiw, we propose including measures of the variances and skewness of relative price adjustment in an otherwise standard model of the Phillips curve. We examine the case of Turkey, where distribution of price changes is especially skewed and where the existence of a Phillips curve has been questioned. We have two main findings: (i) inclusion of measures of the distribution of relative price changes improves our understanding of the Phillips curve trade-off; (ii) there is no evidence of such a trade-off if these measures are not included. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Philips Curve, Cross-Sectional Moments of Inflation, Relative Price Variability. |
| JEL: | C51 C52 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ege:wpaper:0807&r=cwa |
| By: | Guncavdi, Oner; Ulengin, Burc |
| Abstract: | The Turkish economy has recently showed a remarkable performance in economic growth. This performance is particularly meaningful because it has occurred just after the worst economic crisis of the economy. Among other factors, the availability of high liquidity in international markets has played an important role in the easy access to foreign savings, and also increased domestic expenditure in the Turkish economy. This paper examines the importance of international liquidity usage in financing domestic aggregate expenditure. In this regard, we divide this expenditure into nontradable and tradable expenditure in terms of their income generation capability in different currencies. Nontradable expenditure generates income in local currency whereas tradable expenditure has the capability to generate income in foreign currency through trade. This division of the domestic expenditure components is particularly important if domestic expenditure is increasingly financed from capital inflow and if the nontradable component in domestic expenditure rises. Since nontradable expenditure creates income in local currency, and as its importance in Turkey has recently become high, the dependency of the economy on foreign exchange earning has also increased. This is shown by estimating the import demand function which includes the effects of disaggregated domestic expenditure. Empirically we found that nontradable expenditure is as crucial as tradable expenditure in generating import demand in the short run. This empirical finding makes us particularly sceptical regarding the positive effects of capital inflows which are closely related to the use of these inflows in tradable economic activities. |
| JEL: | O11 O24 F14 F43 |
| Date: | 2008–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9631&r=cwa |
| By: | Guncavdi, Oner; Kucukcifci, Suat |
| Abstract: | The North Cyprus economy has been under economic embargoes for many years, and has been struggling to eradicate the income difference with the south of the island with extremely limited facilities. Successive governments have accordingly developed distinctive responses to cope with these difficulties. The paper examines these features of the North Cyprus economy with a particular emphasis on its response to economic embargoes. The paper also examines how important economic embargoes would be (or have been) in the North Cypriot economy. For this purpose total economic growth is decomposed with respect to different components of demand. The results show that despite the presence of embargoes, external demand and the availability of import flows are detrimental factors for economic growth. Also domestic final demand is an equally important source of growth in the North Cyprus economy. |
| JEL: | F51 F43 C67 F19 |
| Date: | 2008–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9621&r=cwa |
| By: | Mottaleb, Khondoker Abdul |
| Abstract: | Abstract: More than 30 percent of total population in Bangladesh is extremely poor. Halving the existing poverty level as per the millennium development goals of the UN by 2015 is the major challenge of the country. The question arises as to how to eradicate extreme poverty quickly? Successful experience of the East Asian countries reveals that creation of employment opportunities in the non-farm industrial sector for the rural poor is instrumental to eradicate poverty. Due to stagnant large and medium scales industrial sector and sole dependence on agriculture sector for employment and income, Bangladesh suffers from huge unemployment and disguised unemployment, which has been further worsening due to high population growth rate. Since the long past, rural informal income generating activities, such as traditional bamboo craftsmanship, however, has created enormous employment and income opportunities in the country especially for the rural poor and distress women. Empirical studies though recognize the contribution of rural informal activities to poverty alleviation, seldom focuses on who are the craftsmen, how they produce and market their products. Using primary data collected from more than 200 bamboo craftsmen from four districts in Bangladesh, this study tries to examine the role of rural informal activities and characterizes who are the craftsmen. The study finds that bamboo craftsmen are mostly uneducated and inherited the skills and businesses from their parents. The study also finds that all of the workers in the bamboo industry are family members and nearly 50 percent of total workers in the bamboo sector are female. Thus, the traditional bamboo sector contributes enormously to the creation of employment opportunities for the rural women. Finally, based on the opinions of the craftsmen, the study recommends some suggestions for the development of the bamboo industry in Bangladesh. |
| Keywords: | industrial cluster; industrial development; craftsmanship; bamboo |
| JEL: | O15 J24 E26 M13 O14 |
| Date: | 2008–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9616&r=cwa |
| By: | Desh Gupta; Milind Sathye |
| Abstract: | We analyse the factors that led to the turnaround of the Indian Railways from a low performing organisation to a high performing one. Literature on public sector turnaround provides the theoretical underpinnings. Enterprise turnaround is often ascribed to managerial leadership; we found that environmental factors (good luck) also contribute to the success. The implication of our study is that an organisation’s turnaround success needs to be put in a wider context. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:asarcc:2008-06&r=cwa |
| By: | Ana M. Fernandes; Ariel Pakes |
| Abstract: | We use the World Bank Investment Climate Surveys data to analyze the employment of both labor and capital in Indian manufacturing. We focus on disparities among states in manufacturing employment patterns, and provide reduced form evidence of their relationship to both (i) institutional constraints, and (ii) productivity. |
| JEL: | L11 L5 O4 O53 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14178&r=cwa |
| By: | Lori A. Beaman; Raghabendra Chattopadhyay; Esther Duflo; Rohini Pande; Petia Topalova |
| Abstract: | We exploit random assignment of gender quotas across Indian village councils to investigate whether having a female chief councillor affects public opinion towards female leaders. Villagers who have never been required to have a female leader prefer male leaders and perceive hypothetical female leaders as less effective than their male counterparts, when stated performance is identical. Exposure to a female leader does not alter villagers' taste preference for male leaders. However, it weakens stereotypes about gender roles in the public and domestic spheres and eliminates the negative bias in how female leaders' effectiveness is perceived among male villagers. Female villagers exhibit less prior bias, but are also less likely to know about or participate in local politics; as a result, their attitudes are largely unaffected. Consistent with our experimental findings, villagers rate their women leaders as less effective when exposed to them for the first, but not second, time. These changes in attitude are electorally meaningful: after 10 years of the quota policy, women are more likely to stand for and win free seats in villages that have been continuously required to have a female chief councillor. |
| JEL: | O1 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14198&r=cwa |