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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Tolga Yuret (Koç University); Kadir Doğan |
| Abstract: | A central authority designs and implements the college admissions process in Turkey. All applicants are required to take an SATlike test and submit their preferences over the departments. Then, the central authority places the applicants in departments by considering the test scores and stated preferences of the applicants and the capacities of the departments. This procedure generates a fair placement if there are no restrictions on stating preferences. How-ever, the applicants are restricted to state preferences over at most 24 departments out of 4022 available departments. In this paper, by using the college admissions data set of the year 2005, we estimate that the number of applicants who had an unfair placement due to this restriction is equivalent to 2.4 percent of the number of applicants who placed in a department. |
| Keywords: | college admissions, placement algoritms, fairness |
| JEL: | I23 I28 C78 |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:0804&r=cwa |
| By: | F. Gulcin Ozkan; Ahmet Kipici; Mustafa Ismihan |
| Abstract: | This paper develops an analytical framework to explore how financial sector characteristics shape domestic debt dynamics in emerging market economies. Our analysis suggests that the more competitive the banking sector and the more liquid and deeper the deposit market, the better would be the conditions in the public securities market. Our results also reveal that the lower the financial depth, the greater the scale of private sector credits that are crowded-out by public borrowing. To the extent that credit availability is associated with improved productivity and better output performance, the lack of financial depth in emerging market countries implies that extensive domestic borrowing in these countries may have consequences far beyond the concern with fiscal sustainability. As such, our results higlight the importance of developing domestic debt markets for financial and macroeconomic stability. |
| Keywords: | Financial sector; public debt; cost of borrowing. |
| JEL: | E52 E63 H63 |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:yorken:08/11&r=cwa |
| By: | Adnan, Muhammad; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Butt, Sabihuddin |
| Abstract: | This present endeavor explores the relationship between output, technological advancement and agricultural term of trade by utilizing the Nerlovian supply response model in case of small developing economy, like Pakistan. The long run rapport explains by using advance techniques, Johansen’s (1988) approach and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS). .Empirical findings reveal that price incentives may not translate into faster growth in agriculture. The growth in agricultural output responds better when price incentives and investment in technology enhances. |
| Keywords: | Aggregated supply response model; JJ-co integration; FMOLS |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2008–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:8928&r=cwa |
| By: | Abbass, Ahsan; Ahmed, Vaqar |
| Abstract: | Pakistan has been experiencing robust economic growth for the past few years. The macroeconomic position as exhibited by the real sector growth, fiscal indicators and external balance has reasonably improved. However the big question remains; will Pakistan be able to sustain these growth levels? Preserving the momentum becomes difficult when growth is consumption-based. Prosperity if measured by the increased sale of consumer durables gives a partial impression of the underlying economic changes. Promoting luxuries at the opportunity cost of necessities does not promote a pro-savings attitude at the national level and has deeper sociological consequences as well. Pakistan being a small open economy has limited or no control over the consumer or producer price levels. The vulnerability of the economy is again being tested in the face of global energy price increases and food shortages. We try to revisit the stop-go cycle of economic growth in Pakistan, the missing link between sources of growth and meso-micro level development and the knee-jerk reaction type(s) that we adopt as an answer to every economic crises. |
| Keywords: | Pakistan; Poverty; Development; Inequality; Trade; Production; Taxation; Consumption; Investment |
| JEL: | O1 |
| Date: | 2008–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:8907&r=cwa |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Ahmad, Nadeem; Ali, Liaqat |
| Abstract: | Contemporary economies of developing countries are changing due to rapid changes in the world economy. The emergence of international financial industry for worldwide network of transactions altered the role of international economy. Increased financial flows have altered the role of private capital and subsequently effect resource allocation. The economies of developing countries are witnessing changes in the composition of capital flows because world equity market is expanding rapidly. Foreign direct investment (FDIs) and stock market boom are the indicators of the changing world economic order. Earlier, most of the developing nations were facing serious liquidity problems thus compromising economic growth. Now, it is important to study how the changes in financial sector contributed in the overall growth of the economy. This paper endeavors to investigate whether there is a relationship between stock market development and economic growth in case of developing economy such as Pakistan. The data set covers annual times series data from 1971 to 2006. We employed two new tests, i.e., DF-GLS, and Ng-Perron to find integrating order of the said variables of the study. To test long-run robustness, J-J Co-integration and ARDL bounds testing techniques are applied. To investigate long-run causal linkages and short-run dynamics, Engle-Granger causality and ARDL tests are applied respectively. After finding order of integration, our findings suggested that there exist a very strong relationship between stock market development and economic growth. Engle- Granger-Causality estimation confirms in the long-run, there is bi-directional causality between stock market development and economic growth. However, for short-run, there exist only one-way causality, i.e., from stock market development to economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Market Capitalization; Growth; Causality |
| JEL: | B22 |
| Date: | 2008–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:8925&r=cwa |
| By: | A.S.Firoz (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the utilization of iron ore in India. It takes into account thesignificant reserves of iron ore in India and allays fears that the country's steel industrywill run out of iron ore resources if exports continue at the current level. On the contrary,it says that exports are necessary to maintain a structural balance in the market betweenproduction and consumption of lumps and fines as nearly 80 of exported ores are fineswhich are not adequately used in India. This study also highlights the specific problemsof the Goa/Radi region. It examines the bilateral agreements with countries like Japanand Korea as well.The study says that the size of mineral resources is a dynamic concept and depends onexploratory efforts, which have not been enough in India due to lack of investments. Itrecommends on the basis of international experience that increased investment in themineral sector, especially in exploration, will lead to new reserves and resources. |
| Keywords: | Export of Iron Ore, Mineral Policy, Domestic Consumption, Steel Industry |
| JEL: | Q31 Q34 Q38 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:icrier:207&r=cwa |
| By: | Rajiv Kumar (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela); Abhijit Sen Gupta (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela) |
| Abstract: | The Indian manufacturing sector has grown at an impressive average rate of 9.5 per cent annually since 2003-04. Its sustained growth is crucial for generating employment opportunities needed to absorb the rapidly expanding workforce. In this context, this paper reviews the current state of the sector and focuses on determinants of its competitiveness. The paper finds that Indian manufacturing sector exhibits a great deal of regional variation and a marked dualism between the organized and the unorganized segments in terms of both productivity and wage levels. The level of labour absorption in the organized manufacturing sector has been weak as reflected in the declining labour intensity in this sector. This does not augur well for achieving inclusive growth. We also find that although there have been significant changes in the composition of exports in the last 20 years; India is still a very small player at the global level, especially in knowledge intensive and advanced technology products. Finally, the paper explores India's potential for transforming itself into a hub of mass manufacturing. We find that the main constraints in doing so have been the low level of R&D, relative lack of skilled personnel and relatively low FDI levels. |
| Keywords: | manufacturing, competitiveness, mass manufacturing |
| JEL: | L60 O11 |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:icrier:203&r=cwa |
| By: | Abhijit Sen Gupta (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela; Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela) |
| Abstract: | Most of the existing literature has used single reserve adequacy measures to evaluate the volume of excess reserves. In this paper, we employ empirical methods to generate a comprehensive reserve adequacy measure, incorporating the various objectives of holding reserves, and compare the actual reserve accumulation experience of various emerging markets with the prediction of our empirical model. Using this comprehensive reserve adequacy measure, we calculate the cost of holding excess reserves for India by looking at three different alternative uses of resources. We find that India is foregoing as much as 2 of its GDP by accumulating reserves instead of employing resources in alternative uses. |
| Keywords: | Reserve Holdings, Reserve Management |
| JEL: | F37 F47 C33 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:icrier:206&r=cwa |
| By: | Sanghamitra Sahu (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela); Neha Gupta (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela) |
| Abstract: | There is a recent trend towards trade agreements that include trade related competition provisions. However there are large differences across these trade agreements in terms of how the competition provisions are addressed. In this context, this research report tries to analyse the competition provisions in few selected FTAs and draw lessons for India, which is also following the path of entering into trade agreements. The analysis suggests that cooperation in implementing competition laws is immensely helpful. However, at this moment, India can follow the EU style of agreements with competition provisions such as cooperation, exchange of non-confidential information, technical assistance and consultation. |
| Date: | 2008–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:icrier:204&r=cwa |
| By: | P G Rajamohan (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela); Dil Bahadur Rahut (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela); Jabin T Jacob (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela) |
| Abstract: | India's growing economic strength of recent years has seen it adapting its foreign policy to increase its global influence and status and to meet the challenges of the 21st century. In the past few years, New Delhi has expanded its strategic vision, most noticeably in Asia, and has broadened the definition of its security interests. As a result, India-Japan relations have over the past several years undergone a paradigmatic shift which has seen the attempt to build a strategic and global partnership between them.India and Japan share a special relationship as fellow democracies without hegemonic interests and with a similar propensity to seek peaceful resolution of conflicts and greater economic engagement within the Asian continent. This paper puts forward the argument that while there are certainly problems of communication and distance between the two countries, the changing international order - including most notably, the rise of China - will see the two countries increasingly thrown together on a variety of issues, some of which have been identified in the present work. Current and future economic and population dynamics in both the countries mean that India-Japan relations will continue to improve not just politically but also in economic terms. |
| Keywords: | India, Japan, Trade, FDI, ODA |
| JEL: | F10 F21 F35 F59 N00 |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:icrier:212&r=cwa |
| By: | Patricia Justino (Institute of Development Studies) |
| Abstract: | There is much evidence to suggest that economic and social factors are major causes of civil unrest. However, governments often resort to the use of police and military to tackle such upheavals, rather than using policies that directly address the causes of discontent. This briefing uses data from India to compare the effectiveness of redistributive transfers and policing in reducing conflict. It finds that transfers have a significant effect on the prevention and reduction of civil unrest, particularly in the medium term. While policing reduces conflict in the short term, the continued use of police has either inconsequential effects, or even leads to increases in rioting. These findings have important lessons for other countries where social cohesion breaks frequently, but large-scale conflict may be avoidable. |
| Keywords: | Transfers, policing, conflict, unrest, India |
| JEL: | C23 C33 D74 I38 O53 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcn:polbrf:2&r=cwa |
| By: | Suparna Karmakar (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela) |
| Abstract: | Development economists' disfavour with services as a viable engine of growth has been expressed both through theoretical and empirical analysis. One of the stylized facts of development economics is that share of services in employment increases only with the rise in per capita incomes. The skepticism emanates from the observed relatively jobless nature of service sector growth, in particular in the low- and middle-income developing countries. However, given that services have becomes the main source of growth in even the lowest-income developing countries, new empirical evaluation of this thesis has become crucial. A second stylized fact openly acknowledges trade as a source of growth and development. International trade in services, and in particular in the developing countries, has remained significantly lower in comparison to its share in global output. Further, one of the notable trends in recent years has been the increasing importance of cross-border supply of services in economic activities of countries. But is this a sustainable and viable model of development? In view of the above, this paper reviews India's experience to understand how services sector liberalisation can generate (welfare) gains for developing countries, in particular vis--vis its employment generation potential. The analysis has been based on India's experience of an increasingly open service sector and reviews the different channels through which economic gains are garnered from openness to trade in services. But the lessons from this analysis extend far beyond India and are of interest to both developed and developing countries' policymakers concerned about sustaining the competitiveness of their domestic economy. ic activities of countries. But is this a sustainable and viable model of development? In view of the above, this paper reviews India's experience to understand how services sector liberalisation can generate (welfare) gains for developing countries, in particular vis--vis its employment generation potential. The analysis has been based on India's experience of an increasingly open service sector and reviews the different channels through which economic gains are garnered from openness to trade in services. But the lessons from this analysis extend far beyond India and are of interest to both developed and developing countries' policymakers concerned about sustaining the competitiveness of their domestic economy. |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:icrier:210&r=cwa |
| By: | Maja Micevska (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela); Dil Bahadur Rahut (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela) |
| Abstract: | Nonfarm activities generate on average about 60 percent of rural households' incomes in the Himalayas. This paper analyzes the determinants of participation in nonfarm activities and of nonfarm incomes across rural households. A unique data set collected in the Himalayan region of India allows us to deal with the heterogeneity of rural nonfarm activities by using aggregations into categories that are useful both analytically and for policy purposes. We conduct an empirical inquiry that reveals that education plays a major role in accessing more remunerative nonfarm employment. Other household assets and characteristics such as land, social status, and geographical location also play a role |
| Keywords: | Nonfarm employment; Rural households; Incomes; Education; India |
| JEL: | O15 O18 Q12 R11 |
| Date: | 2008–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:icrier:205&r=cwa |
| By: | Jonathan Wadsworth; Augustin de Coulon |
| Abstract: | While most studies of the decision to immigrate focus on the absolute income differencesbetween countries, we argue that relative change in purchasing power or status, as capturedby an individual's ranking in the wage distribution, may also be important. This will in turnbe influenced by differential levels of supply, demand and migration costs across the skilldistribution and across countries. Using data on Indian immigrants in the United States andthe UK matched to comparable data on individuals who remained in India, we show that theaverage Indian immigrant will experience a fall in their relative ranking in the wagedistribution compared to the position they would have achieved had they remained in theorigin country. The fall in relative rankings is larger for immigrants to the UK than to theUS, and largest of all for those with intermediate skills. |
| Keywords: | immigration, wages, relative ranking |
| JEL: | J31 J61 J68 |
| Date: | 2008–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0851&r=cwa |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Rehman, Jamshaid; Hussain, Waqar |
| Abstract: | In this study we endeavor to investigate the relationship between surge of remittances and government spending in Pakistan along with other determinants. For this we incorporate the advance modern econometrics techniques like FMOLS (Fully-Modified Ordinary Least Square) and ECM (Error Correction Method) for long and short run relationships respectively. The coefficient of remittances argues that surge of remittances insulate both government and domestic population from the vagaries of global economy. Moreover, this suggests that remittances are stable and unrequited source of development finance than other forms of capital flow that put constraint on government policies makers in Pakistan. Furthermore, our hypotheses has also been strongly supported by inclusion of non-linear term of remittances in regression, suggests that association of remittances with government spending is inverted U-shaped in the long run. Hence, support the linear relationship between government spending and remittances. Estimates of other variables such as GDP per capita and CPI reduce the government expenditures in longer periods, while worsens income distribution and trade-openness enhances the government spending. Urbanization and dependency ratio show decline in government spending. In short this study gives direction to policy makers to improve the pace of social activities in the Pakistan. |
| Keywords: | Remittance; Government Spending; FMOLS |
| JEL: | C00 |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:8926&r=cwa |
| By: | Surabhi Mittal (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela) |
| Abstract: | The present paper presents the supply and demand trends of rice, wheat, total cereals, pulses, edible oil/oilseeds and sugar/sugarcane. It provides the demand and supply projections for food items during 2011, 2021 and 2026. These projections have been based on change in productivity levels, changes in price, growth of population and income growth. A comparison with projections provided by other scholars has also been made in the paper. Subsequently, the future supply-demand gap has been discussed in the light of policy requirements. It is concluded that an increase in total demand is mainly due to growth in population and per capita income. A diversification in consumption basket significantly away from cereals has been observed. On the supply side, production is constrained by low yield growths. This is more specific in context of total cereals and sugarcane. While in the short and medium term, there might be surplus of cereals in the country, these prospects are likely to diminish in the years to come. This situation is even more alarming for edible oil, sugarcane and pulses. To meet the future food requirements, the country shall have to either increase agricultural production, or depend on imports. In this light, the paper suggests that the policy focus needs to be laid, towards productivity enhancement in agriculture, through public investment in irrigation, development of roads, research and extension. |
| Keywords: | Q11, Q18 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:icrier:209&r=cwa |
| By: | Bandyopadhyay, Arindam; Saha, Asish |
| Abstract: | Through RAROC and EVA tools, Banks can establish a good risk management culture that can create competitive advantage and improve shareholder value |
| Keywords: | RAROC; EVA; Integrated Risk Management; Banking |
| JEL: | L25 G31 G21 M21 |
| Date: | 2007–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:8920&r=cwa |
| By: | Pillai N., Vijayamohanan |
| Abstract: | Electricity demand projection is of utmost importance as electricity has become a vital input to the wellbeing of any society, driving the demand for it from an ever-expanding set of diverse needs to grow on an increasing rate, which in turn places increasing demands on scarce resources of capital investment, material means, and man-power. More specifically, the continuing ‘energy crisis’ has made crucial the need for accurate projection of electricity demand; hence the importance of the forecasting methods. The present paper critically evaluates the electricity demand forecasting methodology and proposes a methodology in the classical time series framework. |
| Keywords: | Electricity demand; Forecasting; Kerala; Time series analysis |
| JEL: | C32 L94 |
| Date: | 2008–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:8899&r=cwa |