|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | HALICIOGLU, Ferda |
| Abstract: | This study attempts to examine empirically aggregate tourism outflows in the case of Turkey using the time series data for the period 1970-2005. As far as this article is concerned, there exists no previous empirical work dealing with the tourist outflows from Turkey. The previous tourism studies in the case of Turkey, by and large, focus on the inbound tourism demand analyses. As a developing country and an important tourism destination, Turkey has also been a significant source for generating a substantial number of tourists in recent years. Therefore, the tourist outflows from Turkey deserve to be analysed empirically too. The total tourist outflows from Turkey are related to real income and relative prices. The bounds testing to cointegration procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) is employed to compute the short and long-run elasticities of income and relative prices. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables of outbound tourist flows, income and relative prices to determine the direction of causality. In the long-run, causality runs interactively through the error correction term from income and relative prices to outbound tourist flows. However, in the short-run, causality runs only from income to outbound tourism flows. The aggregate tourism outflows equation is also checked for the parameter stability via the tests of cumulative sum (CUSUM) and cumulative sum of the squares (CUSUMSQ). The empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining the total tourist outflows from Turkey and there exists a stable outbound tourism demand function. The results also provide important policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | outbound tourism demand; cointegration; Granger causality; stability tests; Turkey. |
| JEL: | E0 O5 C1 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:6765&r=cwa |
| By: | Ozlem Aytac (Indiana University Bloomington) |
| Abstract: | The literature on the exchange-rate-based stabilization has focused almost exclusively in Latin America. Many other countries however, such as Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey; have undertaken this sort of programs in the last 10-15 years. I depart from the existing literature by developing a model specifically for the 2000-2001 heterodox exchange-rate-based stabilization program in Turkey: When the government lowers the rate of crawl, the rate of domestic credit creation is set equal to the lower rate of crawl, bond sales finance the fiscal deficit, and money growth occurs only through capital inflows. Without appealing to high intertemporal elasticity of substitution, the model does very well at replicating the magnitude of the current account deficit (5.5% of GDP predicted vs. 5% of GNP actual), the peak in total consumption spending (10.08% predicted vs. 9.6% actual), average growth rate in total consumption spending (6.7% predicted vs. 6% actual), the peak in durables spending (37.06% predicted vs. 39.5% actual), and the average growth rate in durables spending (24% predicted vs. 27.4% actual) observed in Turkey following the inception of the program. |
| Keywords: | inflation, exchange-rate-based stabilization, durables |
| JEL: | E31 E63 F41 |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inu:caeprp:2008-001&r=cwa |
| By: | Koray Alper |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0707&r=cwa |
| By: | Khan, Muhammad Arshad; Qayyum, Abdul |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the empirical evidence on purchasing power parity (PPP) for Pak-rupee vis-à-vis US-dollar exchange rate using Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate cointegration and bound testing approach to cointegration (Pesaran et al., 2001) over the period 1982Q2-2005Q4. We find a considerable support for the existence of long-run PPP. Furthermore, the results of error-correction suggest that nominal exchange rate plays an important role in eliminating deviations from long-run PPP. The results further suggest that there is high degree of foreign exchange and goods markets integration. One major policy implication derived from the findings of this study is that the monetary authorities should contain money supply growth in order to stabilize prices and reduce balance of payments deficits. |
| Keywords: | Exchange Rate; Purchasing power parity; Cointegration |
| JEL: | F00 C32 F36 |
| Date: | 2007–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:6754&r=cwa |
| By: | Khan, Dr.Niaz Ahmed |
| Abstract: | Our world is facing lot of challenges with no solution in sight.The main cause of all these ills is the POVERTY.The problem of poverty has given rise ot many other problems such as the problem of taxes, terrorism ,drug abuse.In this article I will describe the solution for these problems. 1. Do not barrow the money which cannot be returned with interest and in time.Issue bonds which can be used by everybody rich or poor and and are not debt so there is no question of interest.Take the example of USA which is under threat of great recession. USA borrows money by selling treasury bills and the interest based bonds. The suggestion is to sell these bonds on non interest basis.ONE dollar buys 5 bonds on the condition that the amount should be $100000 or multiple of it. Fewer amounts will have rate of four and three. This discount period is only for one month at the start of the implementation of this system. In the second month the rate will be 4 in the next month. The rate of 3 will apply to subsequent months for the same amount. These bonds will be used in all state controlled services and commodities. For example a bill of ( any service or commodity )$100 can be paid with 200 bonds and there will be no exception to this rule .A NET DISCOUNT OF 60 % . A simple formula will apply :Total bill in dollars x2 is the number of bonds surrendered. Price in bonds will not be less than the cost price but without the direct indirect taxes and the duties which are added to the present to make it very expensive. It will attract at least 150 million people to take this opportunity as early as possible. And if one is sure of making 100% profit within 30 days there will be many more who will help themselves. The result will be that the government gets at least $15 trillion within a very short period of time of few days and much more in the rest of the year .THIS IS NOT A LONE AS STATE HAS SOLD BONDS( Commodity) WHICH IS AN ALTERNATE CURRENCY AND DO NOT CARRY ANY INTEREST. One immediately thinks that who will bear the loss and this big loss to the state is not more than total year budget of $12 trillion which it collects in one year with all the taxes and the duties but the bond price is simply a cost price without any kind of tax or duty. The state will float tenders to will select a private agency (USMF) UNITED STATES MONITORY FUND JUST A NAME GIVEN TO THIS ORGANIZATION with the lowest bid WHERE AS second third and forth bidders will be auditors of USMF . This agency will employ at least 20 million unemployed on 10% commission basis and without any salary. These agents will have to pay $500 as an annual fee to USMF in order to built the infrastructure for the sale of bonds. Agents quota Will be $300000 per month or they will be allowed to sell their whole year quota in one day or in a month, This will only materialize if the agent shares his commission with the would be buyer. Greater the share of commission quicker the sale. This investor or a buyer will sell these bonds at the same rate of 5 per dollar and his bonds will sell like hot cakes every day as there is no condition of the amount of money to purchase any amount of bonds. In this way even the poorest person will get the same rate as the investor except for the commission which he takes from the agent who makes almost 100% profit by only investing $100000 .He will sell these bonds repeatedly and will keep at least 6% profit every day till the demand lasts. NOW THINK HOW MUCH STATE HAS ACCUMULATED Much more than few years budget in matter of only one month.This is only the first flood gate of money and there are seven of these yet to open so at the end of 30 days or even much earlier the government declares tax free country for ever. With the removal of all kinds of direct and indirect taxes and duties the price of oil electricity telephone and of all types on other items under government control is almost 60% less than before as these are being purchased by bonds( which is the cost price) and not with dollars. The production cost of every thing has come down tremendously . State also offers one million duty free if one deposits $100000 non refundable .This brings out all the black and spare money which state WAS NOT ABLE TO GET BEFORE AND AS THERE IS NO TAX AND HENCE NO TAX EVASION SO ALL THE MONEY IS WHITE AS IT IS BEING GIVEN TO GOVERNMENT .This was the second flood gate of money which is even bigger than the first one and the exact amount is impossible to asses unless the system is implemented. In order to provide cheep bonds through out the year government offers three types of registration fees.Pay $100000 in the start of the year and get the rate of 5 for the rest of the year and this will suit the professional’s and salaried person.Pay $10000 yearly and get 20000 new bonds at the rate 5 every month but one has to collect 10000 bonds( equal to fee) to get this cheap rate through out the year. Higher the registration fee More the entitlement of cheep bonds. This registration will suit any small time business who will sell his product cheaper provided 15% bonds are also paid with rest of cash money by the customer SEE THE NEXT REGISTRATION FOR FARTHER EXPLANATION 15 %BONDS .This will apply to all goods in private sector and does not apply to the government sector. This is a big incentive to accept bonds in the private sector as the business accepting more bonds will have more business than the trader not accepting the bonds so the bonds market will multiply and there will be a constant need for bonds in the open market.The third type of registration will be of $100000 which will entitle the business to sell its products through USMF. The value of merchandise sold through this source will help the business to get the 5 bond per dollar rate equal to the amount sold or opt for the duty free option equal the amount sold. But with one condition of surrendering 15% bonds at each sale in dollars.The example is the merchandised sold through USMF &1000.The BONDS SURRENDERED 150 ARE DEPOSITED IN STATE ACCOUNT TO BE SOLD AGAIN SO THE CYCLE OF BONDS IS ESTABLISHED .A receipt of of bonds surrendered is obtained from USMF for evidence of sale of merchandise and this receipt will entitle the the traders to get cheep bonds or the duty free option through out the year BUT THE SAME RECEIPT CAN BE USED ONCE ONLY. The benefit to the business is cheap bonds throughout the year and the duty free option will help the industry.The quota which can be sold is ten times the amount of Registration but not more unless the registration fee is increased. Now all the business will opt for this registration in order to reduce the cost of production. These 15% bonds the business will get back through a chain of dealers sub dealers and ultimately the customer will pay this bond portion as he will get the end product very cheep because of tremendous cut in the cost of production by the factors already mentioned. This will replace the GST or the VAT or the two price system seen all over USA. Almost every body will sell their product through this channel as it will be much costlier to sell the product out side this system as cheap bonds are not available otherwise. According to rough estimate at least $1000 trillion transactions are carried out every day in US and at each transaction 15% bonds are being surrendered ,the price 15 bonds is $3 .So 3% of 1000 trillion will be $30 trillion which goes into government account without any compulsion every day(UNBELIEVABLE) this is the third flood gate of money AND IS CALLED THE GOLD MINE.Now the state is sitting in the driving seat and all the money in banks of private sector have transferred into government account and banks are no more the lenders but are borrower from the state which is the only source left and will invest in business with sound feasibility study checked by the state bank. The state will offer to invest 80% and the bank will bring investor who is willing to pool rest 20%. This 20 % will be deposited in the bank and the bank will oversee the running the business, running expenses will be given to the investor from its share of 20%. There will be no collateral and share of the profit and loss will be shared in the ratio of 60 and 40. The bank will share the 60% with the investor and 40 % will go to state funds and the state will provide every thing under its control below cost which will farther reduce the cost of production and at the same time will MARKEDLY improve the profit margins OF ALL THE BUSINESSES. No major business can refuse this offer. Any bank showing repeated loss will go out of business as there will be no more funds available from the government source and all other interest based sources are not available any more. Interest based banking is is gone for ever or it may be at a very small scale and the state will not offer loans on interest as these are not any more profitable and risk free as there is no collateral . The amount of profit government will share will be unimaginable and this is the 5Th flood gate opened.Last but not the least government will acquire all the land on lease without any force and will provide all the needs to the formers THROUGH CORPORATE FARMING SECTOR HIRED BY THE STATE below cost and will become the shareholder according to the mutual contract with the land owner this is the 6TH flood gate of money. 2-The drug abuse will be eliminiated when all the possible land is being cultivated by best agriculture engineers there will be much better yield and much more profit to land owner then who will not join hands with the government . THE OBVIOUS BENEFIT WILL BE THERE WILL BE NO MORE POPPY CULTIVATION IN COUNTRIES WHICH ARE POOR AND LARGELY DEPEND ON THE POPPY CROP. NOW THERE IS NO MORE POPPY AND NO MORE DRUGS. 3-The solution of trerrorism lies in the eliminaton of poverty.. We have to look at root cause and that is the POVERTY and NOT the religion which is being falsely blamed .Th going rate for a suicide bomber is $1000 in Pakistan Iraq and in Afghanistan .Can one believe that any one having at least two meals a day will blow himself ?Never the areas of the countries where these attacks are happening are extremely poor and the extremist elements who themselves are or were poor exploit these very poor people to carryout attacks for money to save their families from dying from hunger and is open secret. Osama Bin Laden has large force that is recruited from poor areas as there in no job anywhere and he provides these raw recruits with only food and shelter and at same time brainwash them and train some of them to carry out these attacks by giving them enough money in their lives to support their dependents. You might mention few isolated cases of being well to do and still carried out these attacks. Once the poverty is removed in these areas by implementing this system these attacks will come to an end immediately. This system is not only meant for USA but will be easily applicable to every country. A STRONG EFFORT IS BEING MADE TO REACH THE RULERS OF THESE COUNTRIES AND ALSO TO MR BUSH BUT SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN NO SUCCESS. I HAVE THE BLUE PRINT OF A REAL AND PRACTICAL SOLUTION TO GET USA FORCES OUT OF IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN WITHOUT VIOLENCE IN MATTER OF 6 MONTHS .IF ALL THE ABOVE IMPOSSIBLE CLAIMS I HAVE MADE ARE POSSIBLE AND TRUE TO THE LAST DETAIL THEN THERE IS NO REASON THAT THIS MESSAGE SHOULD NOT REACH THE HIGHEST AUTHORITY IN THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION FOR THEIR PROMPT FUTURE COURSE OF ACTION.For any comments and suggestion please contact drnakhan2000@yahoo.com. |
| JEL: | F41 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:6780&r=cwa |
| By: | Christian Kalhoefer (Faculty of Management Technology, The German University in Cairo); Rania Salem (Faculty of Management Technology, The German University in Cairo) |
| Abstract: | The paper is analyzing current problems of the Egyptian banking sector, which is dominated by public banks. The reported problems include a massive proportion of non-performing loans in the banks’ credit portfolios as well as significant profitability problems, especially in the public banks. Some empirical data is gathered using a bank-specific Return on Equity-Analysis. Results support the reported problems and also show some structural weaknesses of both public and private banks. |
| Keywords: | Privatization, non-performing loans, return on equity analysis, banks, Egypt |
| JEL: | G21 G32 O16 |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:guc:wpaper:7&r=cwa |
| By: | Muller, Nichole |
| Abstract: | Till recently the investment policy of India was overtly nationalistic. Today however everything seems to be changing. The change is enormous. India is becoming very open to foreign investors. Governmental procedures have been simplified and for most of the enterprises no government permission is necessary. |
| Keywords: | investment; liberalization; taxes; VAT. |
| JEL: | K0 L52 K23 L53 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:6809&r=cwa |
| By: | Geoffrey N. Keim; Beth Anne Wilson |
| Abstract: | Projections of sustained strong growth in India depend importantly on the utilization of the huge increase in India's working-age population projected over the next two decades. To date, however, India's economic growth has been concentrated in high-skill and capital-intensive sectors, and has not generated strong employment growth. In this paper, we highlight the tension between India's performance in output and employment, describe the characteristics of India's demographic dividend, and discuss impediments to India's shift away from agriculture. |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:913&r=cwa |
| By: | Rubiana Chamarbagwala (Indiana University Bloomington); Gunjan Sharma (University of Missouri) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between economic deregulation (delicensing), skill upgrading, and wage inequality during the 1980s and 1990s in India. We use a unique dataset on India's industrial licensing regime to test whether industrial deregulation during the 1980s and 1990s played a role in generating demand for skilled workers, as measured by the employment and wagebill shares of white-collar workers, and in raising the returns to skilled labor, as measured by the skill premium. Our analysis focuses not only on the difference between licensed and delicensed industries but also on the comparison of these differences during the 1980s, when India's external sector remained relatively closed to the world economy, and the 1990s, when India underwent massive liberalization reforms and became increasingly integrated with the global economy. We identify two main channels through which industrial delicensing affects the demand for skills and wage inequality: capital- and output-skill complementarities. Our analysis finds two important results. First, capital- and output-skill complementarities existed for firms in both licensed and delicensed industries but were stronger in delicensed industries both before and after 1991. The exception is output-skill complementarities with respect to the skill premium, where delicensed industries experienced lower output-skill complementarities compared to licensed ones both before and after 1991. Second, the contribution of industrial delicensing to both types of complementarities was considerably higher during the 1980s and much smaller after 1991. These results suggest that industrial delicensing benefited skilled labor via capital- and output-skill complementarities during the 1980s, the decade before India liberalized it's trade and investment regime. Thus, much of the increase in the demand for and returns to skill as a result of capital- and output-skill complementarities can be attributed to domestic reforms during the pre-1991 period in India. |
| Keywords: | Capital-skill complementarities, industrial delicensing, trade liberalization, India |
| JEL: | F16 J23 J24 O14 O38 |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inu:caeprp:2008-002&r=cwa |
| By: | Manmohan Singh |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the use of participatory notes (PNs) by foreign investors, as a conduit for portfolio flows into Indian equity markets for more than a decade. The broadening of India's foreign investor base, in recent years, has a bias towards hedge funds/unregistered foreign investors who invest primarily via PNs. While tax arbitrage via capital gains tax has almost disappeared since July 2004, it is intriguing to note that since then the demand for PNs has actually increased. The paper suggests some reasons for the continuation of a buoyant market in PNs, and explains the possible impact from the recent regulatory changes. |
| Keywords: | Hedge funds , India , Foreign investment , |
| Date: | 2007–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/291&r=cwa |
| By: | Mehar, Ayub |
| Abstract: | Different versions of the South Asian Economic Zone has been discussing in the literature. The basic and important justification behind the formation of South Asian Free Economic Zone is not directly concerned with the economic benefits; it is justified on the basis of cultural and historical relations. . Three different propositions for the socio-economic collaboration between India and Muslim World were discussed in this article. It was concluded that India would has to opt one of the two options: a merger with the Muslim World or playing a role as an agent of the Western bloc against China and Muslim World. |
| Keywords: | Regionalization; Trade Blocs; Free Trade Regime |
| JEL: | Z1 F5 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:6822&r=cwa |
| By: | Priya BHAGOWALIA; Susan E. CHEN; Gerald SHIVELY (Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Purdue University) |
| Abstract: | Most developing countries strive to improve agricultural productivity by relaxing credit constraints, supplying better inputs, and improving marketing and distribution. However the efficacy of these reforms needs to be examined in the context of the behavioral responses of farming households. This study examines gender biases within households that affect short-term decisions with immediate and long-term implications. This study utilizes data from ICRISAT's village level studies in India (1975-85) to highlight the effects of child gender on the use of agricultural inputs. The main finding is that households with boys tend to use purchased inputs such as fertilizers and insecticides more intensively compared with households with girls. In general, household with boys also tend to have larger land holdings, and use animal and human labor to a greater extent than household with girls. |
| Keywords: | gender bias, agricultural economics, inputs, village level studies, son |
| JEL: | J16 Q12 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pae:wpaper:07-09&r=cwa |
| By: | Mehar, Ayub |
| Abstract: | Regional-based quota in public sector employment was always considered as one of the important cause of the ethnic politics in Pakistan and particularly in Karachi. The majority of educated youth and middle classers in Pakistan belong to the urban areas and big cities where public sector employment is a frictional part of the total employment. However, households’ economic statuses in those areas are closely related with the employment status of the households’ members. This study has one objective only: to test the hypothesis that socio-economic variation between the ethnic groups was the origin of the emerging ethnic politics in Karachi. The disparities in income, employment and social status have been compared between the nine ethnic groups of Karachi. It is noteworthy that statistical evidences have rejected the hypothesis that rise in ethnic politics was a consequence of socio-economic discrepancies between the ethnic groups. |
| Keywords: | Ethnicity; Income Disparities; Social Status |
| JEL: | R0 Z10 |
| Date: | 2003 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:6821&r=cwa |
| By: | Irina Tytell; Florence Jaumotte |
| Abstract: | Labor markets around the world have become increasingly integrated over the last two decades, with the entry of China, India and the former Eastern bloc into the world trading system, the removal of restrictions on trade and capital flows, and rapid technological progress. At the same time, the share of labor in national income decreased in most advanced countries. This paper uses a labor share equation derived from a translog revenue function to estimate the contributions of globalization, technological progress, and labor market policies to the decline in the labor share. The results, obtained for 18 advanced countries over 1982- 2002, suggest that globalization was only one of several factors that have affected the labor share. Technological progress, especially in the information and communications sectors, has had a bigger impact, particularly on the labor share in unskilled sectors. |
| Keywords: | Globalization , Labor , Labor markets , International trade , Immigration , Information technology , |
| Date: | 2008–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/298&r=cwa |
| By: | Thierry Bracke (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Matthieu Bussière (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Michael Fidora (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Roland Straub (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we take a systematic look at global imbalances. First, we provide a definition of the phenomenon, and relate global imbalances to widening external positions of systemically important economies that reflect distortions or entail risks for the global economy. Second, we provide an operational content to this definition by measuring trends in external imbalances over the past decade and putting these in a historical perspective. We argue that three main features set today’s situation apart from past episodes of growing external imbalances - (i) the emergence of new players, in particular emerging market economies such as China and India, which are quickly catching up with the advanced economies; (ii) an unprecedented wave of financial globalisation, with more integrated global financial markets and increasing opportunities for international portfolio diversification, also characterised by considerable asymmetries in the level of market completeness across countries; and (iii) the favourable global macroeconomic and financial environment, with record high global growth rates in recent years, low financial market volatility and easy global financing conditions over a long time period of time, running at least until the summer of 2007. Finally, we provide an analytical overview of the fundamental causes and drivers of global imbalances. The central argument is that the increase in imbalances has been driven by a unique combination of structural and cyclical determinants. JEL Classification: F2, F32, F33, F41. |
| Keywords: | Gobal imbalances, current account, incomplete financial globalisation, structural factors, cyclical factors. |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:20070078&r=cwa |