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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Rakesh Ahuja; |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:asarcc:2007-11&r=cwa |
| By: | Garry Pursell; |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:asarcc:2007-14&r=cwa |
| By: | Sonja Fagernäs |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the effects of industrial disputes legislation and the dispute settlement process on informal versus formal employment in India. It uses indicators of pro-worker court awards and court efficiency as well as amendments to the Industrial Disputes Act (IDA) at the level of Indian states. The state-level IDA amendments are classified as pro-worker or pro-employer and enforcement enhancing. Three complementary empirical approaches and data sources are used. These include a quasi-panel dataset constructed from four household employment surveys (NSSO) between 1983-1999, a state-industry level panel dataset for organised (formal) sector industrial units (ASI) for 1980-1997 and a cross-sectional survey of unorganised (informal) manufacturing firms for 2000/2001. |
| Keywords: | Informal employment, labour law, industrial disputes, judicial efficiency, employment structure |
| JEL: | J21 K31 O17 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp353&r=cwa |
| By: | Lekha Chakraborty |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the real (direct) and financial crowding out in India between 1970–71 and 2002–03. Using an asymmetric vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the paper finds no real crowding out between public and private investment; rather, complementarity is observed between the two. The dynamics of financial crowding out is captured through the dual transmission mechanism via the real rate of interest—that is, whether private capital formation is interest-rate sensitive and, in turn, whether the rise in the real rate of interest is induced by a fiscal deficit. The study found empirical evidence for the former but not the latter, supporting the conclusion that there is no financial crowding out in India. The differential impacts of public infrastructure and noninfrastruture innovations on the private corporate sector are carried out separately to analyze the nonhomogeneity aspects of public investment. The results of the Impulse Response Function reinforced that no other macrovariables, including cost and quantity of credit and the output gap, have been as significant as public investment—in particular, public infrastructure investment—in determining private corporate investment in the medium and long terms, which has crucial policy implications. |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_518&r=cwa |
| By: | Irma Clots-Figueras |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the gender of politicians affects the educational levels of individuals who grow up in the districts where these politicians are elected. Increasing female political representation by 10 percentage points increases the probability that an individual attains primary education in urban areas by 6 percentage points, which is 21% of the difference in primary education attainment between the richest and the poorest Indian states. Caste also matters, as female politicians who won seats reserved for lower castes and disadvantaged tribes are those who mainly have an effect. In addition, both the gender and caste of politicians determine who benefits more from their policies: in urban areas female politicians increase educational achievements of those of their gender and caste. A unique dataset collected on politicians in India is matched with individual data by cohort and district of residence. The political data allow the identification of close elections between women and men, which yield quasi-experimental election outcomes used to estimate the causal effect of the gender of politicians. |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:we077342&r=cwa |
| By: | Francesca Francavilla (University of Florence); Gianna Claudia Giannelli (University of Florence, CHILD and IZA) |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with child labour in developing countries. We address a problem that has recently drawn much attention at the international level, that is, how to invest in women’s rights to advance the rights of both women and children. We study the problem from a new perspective. In our theoretical model we assume that the child’s time is an extension of her/his mother’s time, and that she has to decide how to allocate it. We estimate two empirical specifications, both multinomial logit. The first one, in line with the standard approach in the literature, estimates a model of the probability of the different child’s states, conditional on her/his mother’s states. The second empirical specification, in line with our theoretical model, estimates the mother-child states jointly. Using a unique, rich and representative data survey for all Indian states and for urban and rural India (NFHS-2, 1998/9), we select our sample drawing information from the household data set and the women’s data set. Our results show that the presence of the mother in the family increases children welfare, in terms of educational opportunities and protection from work activities. All our results indicate that the mother tends to stay home and send her children to school the better is the father’s employment position and the wealthier is the family. However, we observe a perverse effect. If the mother works, since female job quality and wage levels are very low, also her children have a higher probability to work. |
| Keywords: | child labour, education, women’s work, time allocation, India |
| JEL: | J13 J22 O15 O18 |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3099&r=cwa |
| By: | Theodore Panagiotidis (University of Macedonia, Greece and The Rimini Centre for Economics Analysis, Italy.); Mark J. Holmes (Waikato University, New Zealand); Abhijit Sharma (Bradford University, UK) |
| Abstract: | This study conducts an investigation into the sustainability of the Indian current account over the study period 1950-2003. It is argued that a necessary condition for current account sustainability is that exports and imports are cointegrated. After testing for unit roots that allow for a structural break, we employ parametric tests for cointegration: based on Johansen (1995) and Saikonnen and LŸtkepohl (2000) as well as the nonparametric procedure proposed by Breitung (2002) and Breitung and Taylor (2003) that does not assume linearity. By employing these procedures recursively, two distinct regimes are identified characterised by whether or not imports and exports are cointegrated. The regime of non-cointegration runs until the late 1990s and the second regime of cointegration is present after that. This latter regime coincides with the liberalisation of the Indian economy. |
| Keywords: | India, current account, sustainability, cointegration, nonparametric cointegration, rolling and recursive p-valuesdata |
| JEL: | C5 F1 F4 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:41-07&r=cwa |
| By: | David B. Audretsch (Max Planck Institute of Economics, Jena); Werner Boente (Max Planck Institute of Economics, Jena); Jagannadha Pawan Tamvada (Max Planck Institute of Economics, Jena) |
| Abstract: | While considerable concern has emerged about the impact of religion on economic development, little is actually known about how religion impacts the decision making of individuals. This paper examines the influence of religion on the decision for people to become an entrepreneur. Based on a large-scale data set of nearly ninety thousand workers in India, this paper finds that religion shapes the entrepreneurial decision. In particular, some religions, such as Islam and Christianity, are found to be conducive to entrepreneurship, while others, such as Hinduism, inhibit entrepreneurship. In addition, the caste system is found to influence the propensity to become an entrepreneur. Individuals belonging to a backward caste exhibit a lower propensity to become an entrepreneur. Thus, the empirical evidence suggests that both religion and the tradition of the caste system influence entrepreneurship, suggesting a link between religion and economic behavior. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, religion, caste-system, India |
| JEL: | L26 Z12 |
| Date: | 2007–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2007-075&r=cwa |
| By: | Sajawal Khan (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.); Muhammad Arshad Khan (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.) |
| Abstract: | This study is an attempt to analyse the determinants of private investment in Pakistan over the period 1972-2005. The ARDL co-integration approach is employed to check the existence of a long-run relationship as well as short-run dynamics of investment. The results show that most traditional factors have little or no impact on private investment. These results may support the idea that nontraditional factors such as quality of institutions, governance, entrepreneurial skill, etc., are prerequisites for private investment to flourish. We find partial support for the accelerator principle and the crowding-out hypothesis in the case of Pakistan. However, the hypothesis that the volume of the funds is as important as the cost of the funds used in financing private investment and the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis are not verified in the case of Pakistan. |
| Keywords: | Private Investment, Growth, Crowding Out, Co-integration |
| JEL: | E22 O40 Z10 C20 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:36&r=cwa |
| By: | Rania Antonopoulos |
| Abstract: | There is now widespread recognition that in most countries, private-sector investment has not been able to absorb surplus labor. This is all the more the case for poor unskilled people. Public works programs and employment guarantee schemes in South Africa, India, and other countries provide jobs while creating public assets. In addition to physical infrastructure, an area that has immense potential to create much-needed jobs is that of social service delivery and social infrastructure. While unemployment and enforced “idleness” persist, existing time-use survey data reveal that people around the world—especially women and children—spend long hours performing unpaid work. This work includes not only household maintenance and care provisioning for family members and communities, but also time spent that helps fill public infrastructural gaps—for example, in the energy, health, and education sectors. This paper suggests that, by bringing together public job creation, on the one hand, and unpaid work, on the other, well-designed employment guarantee policies can promote job creation, gender equality, and pro-poor development. |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_516&r=cwa |
| By: | Sonia Bhalotra (University of Bristol and IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic shocks on infant mortality in India and investigates likely mechanisms. A recent OECD-dominated literature shows that mortality at most ages is pro-cyclical but similar analyses for poorer countries are scarce, and both income risk and mortality risk are greater in poor countries. This paper uses individual data on infant mortality for about 150000 children born in 1970-1997, merged by birth-cohort with a state panel containing information on aggregate income. Identification rests upon comparing the effects of annual deviations in income from trend on the mortality risks of children born at different times to the same mother, conditional upon a number of state-time varying covariates including rainshocks. I cannot reject the null that income shocks have no effect on mortality in urban households, but I find that rural infant mortality is counter-cyclical, the elasticity being about -0.46. This is despite the possibility that relatively high risk women avert birth or suffer fetal loss in recessions. It seems related to the fact that women’s participation in the (informal) labour market increases in recessions, presumably, to compensate a decline in their husband’s wages. Consistent with this but, in contrast to results for richer countries, antenatal and postnatal health-care decline in recessions. These effects are reinforced by pro-cyclicality in state health and development expenditure. Another interesting finding that is informative about the underlying mechanisms is that the effect of aggregate income on rural mortality is driven by non-agricultural income. |
| Keywords: | infant mortality, income volatility, business cycles, India, health care, maternal labour supply, public expenditure |
| JEL: | I12 J10 O49 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3086&r=cwa |
| By: | Patricia Justino (Institute of Development Studies) |
| Abstract: | Recurrent episodes of civil unrest significantly reduce the potential for economic growth and poverty reduction. Yet the economics literature offers little understanding of what triggers civil unrest in society and how to prevent it. This paper provides a theoretical analysis in a dynamic setting of the merits of redistributive transfers in preventing the onset of (and reducing) civil unrest and compare it with policies of more direct intervention such as the use of police. We present empirical evidence for a panel of Indian states, where conflict, transfers and policing are treated as endogenous variables. Our empirical results show, in the medium-term, redistributive transfers are both a more successful and cost-effective means to reduce civil unrest. Policing is at best a short-term strategy. In the longer term, it may trigger further social discontent. |
| Keywords: | Transfers, policing, conflict, unrest, India, panel data |
| JEL: | C23 C33 D74 I38 O53 |
| Date: | 2007–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:33&r=cwa |
| By: | Anwar, Mumtaz |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the determinants of multilateral aid from international financial institutions (IFIs) to Pakistan, focusing on the world three major IFIs, the World Bank, the IMF and the ADB. Political economic factors, notably bureaucratic interests and major shareholders economic interests, are suspected to be relevant in international aid allocation decisions. Pooled Tobit estimation analyses confirm this hypothesis. Although recipient need also proves to be a relevant determinant of lending, bureaucratic interest outranks the former. Among the main multilateral donors, the IDA and the ADB are shown to be more bureaucratic and stakeholders economic interest-oriented in their lending decisions than the IBRD and the IMF, which tend to adhere to official lending explanations. |
| Keywords: | Foreign aid; International organizations; Bureaucracy |
| JEL: | F35 D70 |
| Date: | 2006–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:5601&r=cwa |
| By: | Bhat Ramesh; Mavalankar Dileep; Singh Prabal V.; Singh Neelu |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to provide preliminary analysis of information collected at household level from beneficiaries of the Chiranjeevi scheme and from those who have not used the scheme (non-user group). The key findings have been discussed. Some of the questions which have guided this exercise are: understanding the socio-economic profile and differences of the households who have used the scheme and those who have not used the scheme, ability of scheme to target the poor and out-of-pocket expenditures incurred both users and non-users of the scheme. We have discussed this by analysing education, land holding, number of earning members in the family, possession of specific assets, age of women at the time of delivery, ANC services received, place of delivery, distance and time taken to reach the facility, status (normal or complication) of delivery, complications experienced, and cost incurred during the process. The total sample size consists of 656 respondents from 3 talukas of Dahod District. Of these total 656 respondents, 262 (40 per cent) are Chiranjeevi clients and 394 (60 per cent) comprise the non-user group. Key findings of the study are: * The Chiranjeevi scheme is being used by relatively younger mothers and having lesser number of children at the time of index delivery. * Most of the Chiranjeevi users have income levels less than Rs. 12,000 per annum indicating the scheme is able to target the poor families in these three blocks of the district, * The expenditure incurred by non-user group on index (recent) delivery at a private facility is Rs. 4000. * The average expenditure incurred by the Chiranjeevi beneficiary on their previous delivery was Rs. 3070. On index delivery a Chiranjeevi client has spent out-of- pocket on an average Rs. 727 per delivery on medicine (self Rs. 297, child Rs. 358) and transportation Rs.72 indicating that the delivery is not really cash-less. However, the average amount saved by the Chiranjeevi client by availing the benefit of the scheme is Rs 3273 (Rs. 4000 minus Rs. 727). * The average distance travelled by a Chiranjeevi client to reach the health care facility is 13.79 kms and the average time taken is 44 minutes. * The average expenditure on transportation using mostly private transport by a Chiranjeevi client is Rs.272 as compared to Rs. 200 which the Chiranjeevi client is reimbursed, * Private doctors have conducted 41 per cent of deliveries where as rest of the deliveries have been conducted by staff at the private health care facility under the Chiranjeevi scheme, * ANMs have been the source of information to 55 per cent of Chiranjeevi scheme users. Anganwadi workers provided information to 17 percent of the clients and Female Health Workers to 10 per cent of the Chiranjeevi clients. Thus, 82 per cent of the total beneficiaries of the Chiranjeevi scheme were provided information by the community health workers. |
| Date: | 2007–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2007-10-06&r=cwa |
| By: | Attiya Y. Javid (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of the earthquake of October 8, 2005 on the price behaviour and activities of KSE. Sixty firms are selected from those listed on Karachi Stock Exchange, and the results are informative about the price behaviour of the stock market in response to unanticipated shock. The results reveal the fact that the earthquake had both a positive and a negative information content for KSE stocks. There is an increase in the return and volume of the cement, steel, food, and banking sectors, which indicates that investors have expectations of the upcoming demand of investment in these sectors. Furthermore, there is no significant increase in the volatility, because the investors seem certain about the future outlook and they take into account the March 2005 market crash. These findings support the fact that the stock market of Pakistan is reactive to unanticipated shocks and it takes no time to impact the market activities. The evidence also suggests that the Pakistani stock market is resilient, and that it recovered soon after the catastrophic shock. |
| Keywords: | Catastrophic Shock, Market Model, GARCH Specification, Average Return, Market Volume, Market Volatility |
| JEL: | G12 C11 C15 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:37&r=cwa |
| By: | Yilmaz Akyüz |
| Abstract: | This paper critically assesses the standard IMF analytical framework for debt sustainability in emerging markets. It focuses on complementarities and trade-offs between fiscal and external sustainability, and interactions and feedbacks among policy and endogenous variables affecting debt ratios. It examines current fragilities in emerging markets and notes that domestic debt is of concern. Despite favourable conditions, many governments are unable to generate a large enough primary surplus to stabilize public debt ratios. Worsening global financial conditions may create difficulties for budgetary transfers, posing greater challenges to government debt management since restructuring often is more difficult for domestic than external debt. |
| Keywords: | debt sustainability, emerging markets, crisis |
| JEL: | F34 H63 H68 |
| Date: | 2007–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:une:wpaper:61&r=cwa |