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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Schnabl, Gunther; Schobert, Franziska |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses the monetary policy operations of central banks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). We distinguish the pattern of monetary policy operations of the liquidity providing central banks of the large industrialized countries (creditor central banks) and the liquidity absorb-ing central banks of emerging market economies (debtor central banks). Many debtor central banks provide liquidity through foreign exchange intervention in reaction to foreign exchange inflows. If the respective liquidity expansion is regarded as a threat to domestic price and financial stability, liquidity is partly absorbed through sterilization operations. The paper finds that most MENA coun-tries are debtor central banks due to a general pattern of excessive liquidity creation as well as due to country specific reasons. |
| Keywords: | Emerging Markets; Debtor Central Banks; Foreign Exchange Inflows; Sterilization. |
| JEL: | F31 |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:5474&r=cwa |
| By: | Terry McKinley (International Poverty Centre); John Weeks (Professor Emeritus, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London) |
| Abstract: | This Country Study provides an outline of a Strategy for Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction in Uzbekistan. It recommends that the country seek to achieve a six per cent trend rate of economic growth based on increases in domestic public and private investment, instead of relying, as it currently does, on external demand for primary commodities. It also recommends measures to increase the employment intensity of growth and reduce inequality so that the country?s pattern of growth could become broad-based and inclusive. In order to achieve these goals, the study calls for more expansionary fiscal policies, focused on increasing public investment; moderately more accommodating monetary policies, designed to maintain positive but low real rates of return to stimulate private investment; and a managed exchange rate, targeted to boost the country?s international competitiveness and diversify its economy. The study notes that Uzbekistan does not lack savings; what it lacks are the means to mobilize its ample but underutilized private domestic savings. For mobilizing such savings and directing it to productive private investment, the study recommends an industrial policy, which could deploy various measures, such as tax and subsidy instruments, directed commercial credit and public-sector matching funds for private investment. The study recommends that an investment bank, based on joint public-private ownership, should spearhead industrial policy. Directing resources from capital-intensive sectors, formerly favoured by the government?s import-substitution policies, to internationally competitive employment-intensive sectors would be part of such an industrial policy, especially in order to enhance productive employment. The study favours supplementing such measures, which promote growth and employment, with more poverty-focused policies and programmes, such as an enlarged, rural-focused public works scheme, doubling public investment in agriculture and providing small farmers with greater access to land, other productive resources and credit. The study also calls for strengthening the country?s social policies, education and health in particular, and its system of social protection. For health, it emphasizes strengthening primary health care and, for education, it stresses ensuring a full 12-year cycle of secondary education, including professional and vocational education. It also calls for improving the efficiency and equity of the country?s community-based mahalla system of social protection, which it believes has functioned fairly well during the transition period. |
| Keywords: | Strategy; Growth; Employment; Poverty Reduction; Uzbekistan |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:cstudy:12&r=cwa |
| By: | Herani, Gobind; Rajar, Allah Wasayo; Khaskheli, Muhammad Ali |
| Abstract: | This paper is the analysis of farming and rangeland of rain-fed area of Tharparkar and it is desert area, but the concept is general and applicable for every part of the world’s desert where agriculture is rain-fed dependant. It is disadvantaged area of Pakistan. Its’ main source of income is livestock, people like agriculture, but agriculture is not sustainable source of income due to shortage of rainfall. There is need of awareness of reforming of farmland and rangeland; fencing is the best way for farmland reform. Only this practice can help the farmers supplying the fodder in drought conditions. Rangeland also should be conserved for the natural vegetation providing, fodder. Increase in livestock would lead Thar to agro-based industrial economy. We should get the lesson from the example of Denmark where previous condition was like Tharparkar. |
| Keywords: | Farming; Rain Fed; Livestock; Farmland; Rangeland; Forecast; Reform; Natural-Vegetation; Sustainable; Organization |
| JEL: | Q15 Q12 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:5542&r=cwa |
| By: | Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Hacihasanoglu, Yavuz Selim |
| Abstract: | This paper examines Turkey’s international cost competitiveness in manufacturing with respect to the Slovak Republic, and quantitatively investigates the relationship between Turkish cost competitiveness and the exports of manufactured goods at an industry level. The Relative Unit Labor Cost (RULC) measure and dynamic panel data techniques are employed for this analysis. We find that Turkey is not competitive with respect to Slovakia for the 1995-1999 period. The Competitiveness of Slovakia mainly depends on its relatively higher level of labor productivity. |
| Keywords: | Manufacturing export; competitiveness; relative unit labor cost; wage; productivity |
| JEL: | F15 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:5496&r=cwa |
| By: | Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Ceyhan, Sanli Pinar |
| Abstract: | This study attempts to give an insight about the trend in the performance of the Turkish banking sector by conducting a panel data fixed effects regression analysis. The results reveal that efficiency change is negatively related to the number of branches. We find a positive relationship between loan ratio and the performance indices efficiency and efficiency change. Furthermore, bank capitalization is positively related to efficiency change. Interestingly however, return on equity is not statistically significant in explaining any of the efficiency measures. There is also no robust relationship between foreign ownership and efficiency. Finally, restructuring attempts in post-crises epoch robustly account for the improvement in efficiency scores in recent years. |
| Keywords: | Panel Data Analysis; Efficiency; Productivity; Turkish Commercial Banks; Foreign Ownership |
| JEL: | C23 E44 O11 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:5495&r=cwa |
| By: | Abbasoğlu, Osman Furkan; Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Gunes, Ali |
| Abstract: | After 2001 crisis, the macroeconomic environment led to important changes in Turkish banking sector which has experienced a process of concentration by involving in merger and acquisition activities and liquidation of some insolvent banks. Using the data from the detailed balance sheets of the banks that operated in the years from 2001 to 2005, we examine the degree of concentration and degree of competition in the market by applying Panzar and Rosse’s approach. We also explore the existence of relationship between efficiency and profitability of the banks taking into account the internationalization of banking. Our results do not suggest the existence of relationship between concentration and competition. There is also no robust relationship between efficiency and profitability. |
| Keywords: | Concentration; Competition; Efficiency; Profitability of the Turkish Banking Sector |
| JEL: | G15 G20 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:5494&r=cwa |
| By: | Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Ceyhan, Sanli Pinar |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to find the productivity change in the banking sector between 1990 and 2006, with an emphasis to the period after 2001 crisis during which the Turkish banking system experienced a structural change. Using DEA, we find the Malmquist TFP Change Index and its mutually exclusive and exhaustive components of efficiency and technological changes over time. Additionally, we further decompose the technical efficiency change into pure technical and scale efficiency changes. The productivity of the banking sector is found out to have increased, the main reason being technological improvement rather than efficiency increase. For the cases of productivity decline, however, the changes come from the efficiency side rather than technology. An analysis with respect to the ownership status revealed that foreign banks were the most efficient group until 2001 after which state banks captured the first place. We attribute this change to the inflation accounting practice as well as better management of state banks with less political intrusion. The analysis with respect to bank size reveals that before 2000, the most efficient bank group was the medium-scale banks (the banks mainly purchased by foreign banks) followed by small banks while the efficiency scores converged after 2001. |
| Keywords: | Turkish Banking Sector; Data Envelopment Analysis; Efficiency; Productivity; Post-Crises Period |
| JEL: | E32 G20 G21 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:5492&r=cwa |
| By: | Catriona Purfield |
| Abstract: | This paper examines rising asset prices in India. For the most part, asset prices in India reflect structural factors but the risk of a correction cannot be ruled out. However, at this juncture monetary policy may not be the most effective tool to safeguard financial stability because (i) India's economy is undergoing rapid structural change making it difficult to identify price misalignments; (ii) the macroeconomic impact of an asset price correction is likely to be small; and (iii) the relationship between monetary policy and asset prices is also weak. Targeted changes in financial regulations are better tools to address potential risks. |
| Keywords: | Working Paper , India , Asset prices , Monetary policy , |
| Date: | 2007–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/221&r=cwa |
| By: | Hiroko Oura |
| Abstract: | With India's GDP expanding at a rate above 8 percent in recent years, the debate about whether India is overheating revolves mainly about whether growth is above potential-that is, whether the economy is exceeding its "speed limit." This paper attempts to shed light on this debate by providing up-to-date projections of India's potential growth, including by clarifying differences in underlying assumptions used by various researchers that lead to a range of estimates. Estimates of potential growth on this basis range from 7.4 percent to 8.1 percent for 2006/07, and about 8 percent for the medium term. The medium-term potential estimates have risks on both sides: productivity gains and investment could be volatile, but determined reforms could sustain strong productivity growth. |
| Keywords: | Working Paper , Economic growth , India , Economic forecasting , Gross domestic product , Economic reforms , Productivity , |
| Date: | 2007–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/224&r=cwa |
| By: | Ray, Ranjan (School of Economics and Finance, University of Tasmania) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the changes in the nature and quantity of Food consumption in India during the reforms decade of the 1990s, and analyses their implications for calorie intake and undernourishment. The study documents the decline in cereal consumption, especially in the urban areas, and provides evidence that suggests an increase in the prevalence of undernourishment over the period, 1987/88 – 2001/2002. The results also point to a significant number of households, even in the top expenditure decile, suffering from under nourishment. This calls for a reassessment of the current strategy of directing the Targetted Public Distribution System (TPDS) exclusively at households below the poverty line (BPL). This study shows that, both as a source of subsidised calories and as a poverty reducing instrument, the PDS is of much greater importance to the female headed households than it is to the rest of the population. Another important result is that, notwithstanding the sharp decline in their expenditure share during the 1990s, Rice and Wheat continue to provide the dominant share of calories, especially for the rural poor. The Indian experience is in sharp contrast to that in Vietnam which witnessed a large increase in calorie intake and, consequently, a decrease in the prevalence of ndernourishment in the late 1990s. The Vietnamese diet displayed increased diversification during the 1990s with a greater role for protein rich animal products and a more balanced diet of nutrients than in India. |
| Keywords: | Calorie Intake, Prevalence of Undernourishment, Calorie Price Inflation, Public Distribution System, Backward Classes, Female headed Households. |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tas:wpaper:2133&r=cwa |
| By: | Orden, David; Cheng, Fuzhi; Nguyen, Hoa; Grote, Ulrike; Thomas, Marcelle; Mullen, Kathleen; Sun, Dongsheng |
| Abstract: | "This study analyzes the evolution of agricultural policies from 1985 to 2002 in India, Indonesia, China, and Vietnam and provides empirical estimates of the degree of protection or disprotection to agriculture in these four countries, both by key commodities and in aggregate... Taken together the reported measures of support and disprotection of specific crops and agriculture in total provide a reasonable basis for assessing the stance of agricultural policies of India, Indonesia, China, and Vietnam. Attention to measurement issues provides a sensitivity analysis. The results reported are indicative of the range of outcomes likely to be found more broadly among developing countries. From regimes of heavy intervention in agricultural markets, each of the four countries in the study has undergone a substantial reform process." from text |
| Keywords: | Agricultural support, Agricultural policies, Reform, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resrep:152&r=cwa |
| By: | Mehtabul Azam (SMU) |
| Abstract: | The tertiary (college)-secondary (high school) wage premium has been increasing in India over the past decade, but this increase differs across age groups. The increase in wage premium has been driven mostly by younger age groups, while older age groups have not experienced any significant increase. This paper uses the demand and supply model with imperfect substitution across age groups developed by Card and Lemieux (2001) to explain the uneven increase in the wage premium across age groups in India. The findings of this paper are that the increase in the wage premium has come mostly from demand shifts in favor of workers with a tertiary education. More importantly, the demand shifts occurred in both the 1980s and 1990s. The relative supply has played an important role not only determining the extent of increase in wage premium, but also its timing. The increase in relative supply of tertiary workers during 1983-1993 negated the demand shift; as a result, the wage premium did not increase much. But during 1993-1999, the growth rate of the relative supply of tertiary workers decelerated, while relative supply became virtually stagnant during 1999-2004. Both these periods saw an increase in the wage premium as the countervailing supply shift was weak. |
| Keywords: | India, wage premium, tertiary (college), secondary (high school) |
| JEL: | J20 J23 J24 |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smu:ecowpa:710&r=cwa |
| By: | Head, Charles Keith; Mayer, Thierry; Ries, John |
| Abstract: | Advances in communication technology make it possible for workers in India to supply business services to head offices located anywhere. This has the potential to put high-wage workers in direct competition with much lower paid Indian workers. Service trade, however, like goods trade, is subject to strong distance effects, implying that the remote supply of services remains limited. We investigate this proposition by deriving a gravity-like equation for service trade and estimating it for a large sample of countries and different categories of service trade. We find that distance costs are high but are declining over time. Our estimates suggest that delivery costs create a significant advantage for local workers relative to competing workers in distant countries. |
| Keywords: | distance; gravity; services; trade |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F15 F16 |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6542&r=cwa |