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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Kaliappa Kalirajan |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:asarcc:2007-09&r=cwa |
| By: | Raghbendra Jha; U.N. Bhati |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:asarcc:2007-10&r=cwa |
| By: | Ayla Ogus (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics); Niloufer Sohrabji (Department of Economics, Simmons College) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the Turkish current account between 1992 and 2004 within an intertemporal benchmark model. Increasingly larger current account deficits in the Turkish economy have caused a great level of discussion of the current account but it has mainly focused on the real exchange rate and short-term international competitiveness. However, changes in the fundamentals of the Turkish economy warrant a longer term approach in the analysis. This paper computes the optimal consumption smoothing current account using the intertemporal benchmark model (IBM) and tests for intertemporal solvency of the current account. We find consumption tilting dynamics are in effect. As expected of borrowing developing countries, Turkey tilts consumption to the present. We find support for one of the implications of the IBM, that the current account Granger-causes future changes in national cash flow as implied by the intertemporal benchmark model. However, we also find that the actual consumption smoothing current account is considerably more volatile than the optimal consumption smoothing current account suggesting that speculative forces have driven capital movements during the sample period. From the trends in data and the model and testable implications we believe that although Turkey breached the intertemporal solvency condition in the 1990s, this is not true for Turkey in the period following the 2001 crisis. Therefore, we conclude that changed fundamentals in Turkey have made the high current account deficits sustainable. |
| Keywords: | Current account sustainability, intertemporal benchmark model, Turkey |
| JEL: | F32 F37 F41 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:izm:wpaper:0601&r=cwa |
| By: | Morris Sebastian |
| Abstract: | Special economic zones following the enormous success of China have been widely imitated. But it is to be entirely anticipated that the results would vary greatly. Earlier avatars of SEZs in the form of Foreign Trade Zones (FTZs) and Export Promotion Zones (EPZs) were important in the export led growth of east Asia especially South Korea. But more than SEZs or EPZs per se it is the pursuit of “export led growth policies” which underlie the success of exporting and hence of SEZs. SEZz / EPZs can be seen as a (not necessary) microeconomic and spatial initiative in the pursuit of ELG under rather special circumstances by China, and South Korea and Taiwan to more limited extent in their early phases of transformation. In other countries not pursuing ELG the success of SEZs/EPZs has been rather modest. The roles played by the SEZs/ EPZs etc whatever their original purpose were constrained and determined by the macroeconomic policies, trade policies, and regional alignments. There is little meaning in studying SEZs beyond their layout and design without reference to these broader trade and macroeconomic policies. Thus early pioneers like India could make little out of their EPZs since the policies are severely biased against exports. We characterise export led growth (ELG) as the strategy that has allowed the late twentieth century industrialisations, which is far from both import substitution (as conventionally understood) and laissez faire, and to be the simultaneous pursuit of both IS and EP. With this framework we are able to understand the role and evolution of SEZs in a wide variety of countries. These help us to explain and anticipate that unless the policy turns sharply to favour exports (more correctly tradables over non tradables) the success of Indian SEZs would be modest and nowhere near that registered in China. Following from our characterisation of Import Substitution, Export Led Growth and Laissez Faire we also bring out the nature and performance of “special zones” when these are promoted under the very same regimes. |
| Keywords: | Special Economic Zones, SEZ, trade-strategy, export, infrastructure, Export-Led-Growth, China, India, Macroeconomic policy, trade theory, monetary trade theory, industrial-location, FDI, Fiscal-incentives |
| JEL: | F01 |
| Date: | 2007–09–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2007-09-02&r=cwa |
| By: | Bali Swain, Ranjula (Department of Economics); Wallentin, Fan Yang (Department of Information Science, Statistics) |
| Abstract: | Microfinance programs like the Self Help Bank Linkage Program in India have been increasingly promoted for their positive economic impact and the belief that they empower women. However, only a few studies rigorously examine the link between microfinance and women’s empowerment. This paper contributes by arguing that women empowerment takes place when women challenge the existing social norms and culture, to effectively improve their well being. It empirically validates this hypothesis by using quasi-experimental household sample data collected for five states in India for 2000 and 2003. A general structural model is estimated by employing appropriate techniques to treat the ordinal variables in order to estimate the impact of the Self Help Group (SHG) on women empowerment for 2000 and 2003. The results strongly demonstrate that on average, there is a significant increase in the women empowerment of the SHG members group. No such significant change is observed however, for the members of the control group. The elegance of the result lies in the fact that the group of SHG participants show clear evidence of a significant and higher empowerment, while allowing for the possibility that some members might have been more empowered than others. |
| Keywords: | Microfinance; Women empowerment; Ordinal variables; General structural model and Robust maximum likelihood estimation. |
| JEL: | C33 G21 J16 |
| Date: | 2007–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2007_024&r=cwa |
| By: | Arby, M. Farooq; Batool, Irem |
| Abstract: | In Pakistan, only annual estimates of national accounts are available officially. Although quarterly real gross domestic product has been estimated by some studies like Kemal & Arby (2004) and Bengaliwala (1995), no attempt has been made so far to estimate quarterly gross fixed capital formation – a key macroeconomic variable. This study presents a methodology to quarterise gross fixed investment in Pakistan and estimates a quarterly series for the period 1971Q3 to 2006Q2. Using the commodity flow approach, total gross fixed investment has been disaggregated into four components, i.e. machinery and equipment, furniture and fixture, structure and land improvement for annual data of selected years and then each component is quarterised on the basis of related indicators for which quarterly data is available officially. |
| Keywords: | gross fixed capital formation; investment; Pakistan |
| JEL: | E22 C82 |
| Date: | 2007–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4956&r=cwa |
| By: | Alain Desdoigts (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - [CNRS : UMR8174] - [Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I]); Fernando Jaramillo (Universidad del Rosario - [Facultad de Economia]) |
| Abstract: | Will the integration of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) into the global economy provide the biggest boost to the world economy since the industrial revolution ? In this paper, we investigate international demand spillovers brought about by an emerging global middle class and their impact on the international structure of production. We put forth a many-industry and two-country trade model featuring international competition, non-homothetic preferences and country-specific asymmetries in income distribution, productivity and population size. Its key characteristic is the introduction of demand complementarities propagating increasing returns across industries and national boundaries, which eventually translate into a global profit-multiplier. |
| Keywords: | Horizontal complementarities, hierarchic preferences, world middle class, deindustrialization, trade. |
| Date: | 2007–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00111186_v2&r=cwa |
| By: | Kaul Subhashini; Sahay Arvind; Koshy Abraham |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to examine the role of store image in influencing shopper trust and patronage intentions when 1) the store has never been visited and 2) the store has been visited. This study also identifies three stages through which ‘trust-image’ progresses and uses the first stage to construct and ‘initial-trust-image’ of the store. The experimental study findings provide empirical support that initial-trust-image of the store has significant impact on trust and patronage intentions for some shoppers. Retailers entering the Indian market are advised to be conscious of the symbolic cues that they embed in the store appearance, especially since the initial-trust-image needs to convey more than just competence and expertise. Significantly, the findings also indicate that asymmetric effects of trust operate at the stage of initial-trust – negative initial-image perception causes greater mistrust than positive initial-image causes trust. |
| Date: | 2007–09–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2007-09-01&r=cwa |
| By: | Hoppe, Mombert; Brenton, Paul |
| Abstract: | Can the clothing sector be a driver of export diversification and growth for today ' s low-income countries as it was in the past for countries that have graduated into middle income? This paper assesses this issue taking into account key changes to the market for clothing: the emergence of India and especially China as exporting countries; the rise of global production chains; the removal of quotas from the global trading regime but t he continued presence of high tariffs and substantial trade preferences; the increasing importance of large buyers in developed countries and their concerns regarding risk and reputation; and the increasing importance of time in defining sourcing decisions. To assess the importance of the factors shaping the global clothing market, the authors estimate a gravity model to explain jointly the propensity to export clothing and the magnitude of exports from developing countries to the E U and US markets. This analysis identifies the quality of governance as an important determinant of sourcing decisions and that there appears to be a general bias against sourcing apparel from African countries, which is only partially overcome by trade preferences. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory & Research,Free Trade,Trade Policy,Emerging Markets,Transport Economics Policy & Planning |
| Date: | 2007–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4343&r=cwa |
| By: | Patel Amit; Ramani K.V.; Mavalankar Dileep; Agarwal Anurag; Maiya Shilpa, Nayak Beena |
| Abstract: | Governments in many developing countries acknowledge they are facing difficulties in their attempt to meet the basic health needs of their populations. They rely on contracting out to private (for-profit and not-for-profit) organizations as a strategy to meet the needs of underserved populations. For the most part, the public sector chooses to contract out primary healthcare services to the private sector to expand access, increase the availability of medicines and medical supplies, and improve the quality of care. In both urban and rural settings, private for-profit and non-profit health service providers serve both the rich and the poor. Communities often recognize private sector healthcare providers to be more responsive to their healthcare needs and preferences in terms of services available, suitable timings and geographical access etc. Private sector has always played a significant role in the delivery of health services in developing countries. Public-private-partnership (PPP) is an approach under which services are delivered by the private sector, while the responsibility for providing the resources rests with the government. Establishing a PPP requires a legal framework acceptable to all the partners, clarity on the commitment of resources, roles and responsibilities of each partner, as well as accountability to provide a given set of services at a desired level of quality and affordable user charges. Formalizing such an arrangement between partners requires conceptualising a framework for Public Private Partnership (PPP) to manage the delivery of health services. In this paper, we describe the design, development and implementation of a PPP for managing urban health services in Ahmedabad city, Gujarat. Our model has succeeded in bringing together compatible public and private partners to plan and deliver quality healthcare services to meet the community needs of Vasna ward, in Ahmedabad. The new Vasna Urban Health centre was inaugurated on July 23, by the Chief Minister of Guajarat. This new centre now serves about 120 outpatients everyday as against an average of 10 outpatients daily earlier. |
| Date: | 2007–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2007-09-03&r=cwa |
| By: | Singh, Rupinder (BOFIT); Laurila , Juhani (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | The macro economic stabilisation in Azerbaijan has been successful. Following cessation of conflict with Armenia, and decline of GDP by 60 per cent from 1990 to 1995, the government in effect implemented a big-bang reform process in 1995. The inflation rate has now declined to the lowest rate of any transition country and important reforms in the monetary-fiscal mix have been undertaken. The second plank of first generation reforms, liberalisation, has also been successfully implemented with liberalisation of prices, the trade and foreign exchange regimes and virtual completion of small-scale privatisation, although the onset of the Russian crisis in 1998 has impacted negatively both internal and external balances. The paper presents the current economic picture for Azerbaijan and then assesses economic policy issues facing the country. Azerbaijan is well endowed with natural resources, particularly oil but also gas. The second part of the paper considers the question by focussing on policy issues related to the potential flow of oil-based monies into Azerbaijan. The possibility of the “Dutch Disease” syndrome impacting Azerbaijan through a rising real exchange rate on the non-oil sector is not considered to be a problem at present but is expected to become a policy concern in the medium- to long term. Structural reforms in public finance to deal with expected surpluses are lagging and are necessary in the next phase of the transition of Azerbaijan. Moreover, significant reforms are required in banking – privatisation, improvement in regulation and supervision and in the implementation of supporting legal rights, given the current lack of financial intermediation. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan; economic development; oil; Dutch Disease; transition economies |
| JEL: | E60 P20 P30 |
| Date: | 2007–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:1999_005&r=cwa |