|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Murshed, S. Mansoob; Mamoon, Dawood |
| Abstract: | The authors examine whether greater inter-state trade, democracy and reduced military spending lower belligerence between India and Pakistan. They begin with theoretical models covering the opportunity costs of conflict in terms of trade losses and security spending, as well as the costs of making concessions to rivals. Conflict between the two nations can be best understood in a multivariate framework where variables such as economic performance, integration with rest of the world, bilateral trade, military expenditure, population are simultaneously taken into account. The authors' empirical investigation based on time series econometrics for the period 1950-2005 with causality tests suggests that reduced trade, greater military expenditure, less development expenditure, lower levels of democracy, lower growth rates and less general trade openness are all conflict enhancing. Moreover, there is reverse causality between bilateral trade, militarization and conflict; low levels of bilateral trade and high militarization are conflict enhancing, equally conflict also reduces bilateral trade and raises militarization. The authors also run forecasting simulations on 6 different VECM models. Globalization or a greater openness to international trade in general are more significant drivers of a liberal peace, rather than a common democratic political orientation suggested by the pure form of the democratic peace. |
| Keywords: | inter-state conflict and trade, democracy and conflict, conflict and economic development, India, Pakistan |
| JEL: | D74 F13 F15 F51 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iss:wpaper:446&r=cwa |
| By: | Zimmermann, Thomas A. |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT On 1 January 1995, the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU) entered into force. Until August 2006, the DSU has since been applied to 348 complaints – more cases than dispute settlement under the GATT 1947 had dealt with in nearly five decades. The system is perceived, both by practitioners and in academic literature, to work generally well. However, it has also revealed some flaws. Negotiations to review and reform the DSU have been taking place since 1997 ("DSU review"), however, without yielding any result so far. In the meantime, WTO Members and adjudicating bodies managed to develop the system further through evolving practice. While this approach may remedy some practical shortcomings of the DSU text, the more profound imbalance between relatively efficient judicial decision-making in the WTO (as incorporated in the DSU) and nearly blocked political decision-making evolves into a serious challenge to the sustainability of the system. This article provides an overview of the first eleven years of DSU practice and the current DSU review negotiations. An outlook for future challenges to the system is also given. Moreover, specific chapters of the text focus on the role of India in WTO dispute settlement, her use of the system and her participation in the DSU review negotiations. JEL Classification: F02, F13, K33, K41 |
| Keywords: | International Trade; Trade Policy; WTO; Dispute Settlement; Dispute Settlement Understanding; DSU Review Negotiations; India |
| JEL: | F13 K33 K41 F02 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4904&r=cwa |
| By: | Zoltan J. Acs (George Mason University and Max Planck Institute of Economics); Sameeksha Desai (Max Planck Institute of Economics and George Mason University) |
| Abstract: | Democratic capitalism has become the popular paradigm in the modern world, and it is spreading further through globalization. It is a model based on growth, expansion and constant innovation. However, it is accompanied by social problems which may worsen despite overall gains in wealth. In this paper, we suggest that democratic capitalist societies may benefit from the application of what has been a primarily American institution: Philanthropy. We present the Entrepreneurship-Philanthropy Cycle, which demonstrates the relationship between wealthy entrepreneurs, philanthropic contributions and economic opportunity. As a nonmarket and nonstate mechanism, philanthropy is unique in its structure and operations, and may offer the ideal approach to solving social problems. We suggest that both the internationalization of American foundations, and the growth of domestic philanthropy, can help developing countries offset social problems. |
| Keywords: | Philanthropy, entrepreneurship, democratic capitalism, foundation, social problems, India education, social innovation |
| JEL: | O10 P10 I30 |
| Date: | 2007–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2007-056&r=cwa |
| By: | Brüggemann , Axel (BOFIT); Linne , Thomas (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | The aim of paper is to analyse the vulnerability of the Central and Eastern European accession countries to the EU as well as that of Turkey and Russia to a financial crisis. Our methodology is an extension of the signals approach. We develop a composite indicator to measure the evolutin of of the risk potential in each country. Our findings show that crises in Central and Eastern Europe are caused by much the usual suspects s in others emerging markets. In particular an overvalued exchange rate. Weak exports and dwindling currency reserves have good precictive power for assessing crisis vulnerabilities. |
| Keywords: | financial crises; vulnerability indicator; Central and Eastern Europe |
| Date: | 2007–09–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2002_005&r=cwa |
| By: | Sameeksha Desai (Max Planck Institute of Economics and George Mason University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the potential of microfinance in post-conflict economies, and specifically examines policy considerations for the case of Iraq. It presents important conditions of the post-conflict economy, and examines three critical requirements for successful microfinance operations, as outlined by the Microenterprises Best Practices Project. Political stability, economic demand and population stability are evaluated in the case of Iraq. Several other considerations are also addressed, including matters of scale, government mechanisms and support, and gender and religious contexts. |
| Keywords: | microfinance, Iraq, postconflict, political stability, population stability |
| JEL: | O1 O5 P2 |
| Date: | 2007–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2007-060&r=cwa |
| By: | Muravyev , Alexander (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of federal state shareholdings on the performance of Russian companies. It differs from most similar studies in two respects. Firstly, it focuses on mixed ownership companies rather than conventional state enterprises. Secondly, it distinguishes between several types of federal state shareholdings, namely elected blocks, residual blocks (which may be held by two bodies with different functions – the Ministry for State Property and the Russian Fund for Federal Property) and golden shares. The paper describes the origin of federal state shareholdings and discusses their possible implications for company performance. Econometric analysis shows that companies with state ownership generally perform worse than the average firm in terms of labour productivity and profitability. However, there are remarkable differences in the performance of companies with different types of state shareholdings. Companies with residual blocks held by the Property Fund are the worst performers, followed by companies with residual blocks held by the Ministry for State Property. Companies with elected shareholdings as well as with golden shares do not differ from the average enterprises in the respective industries. These differences in performance are explained by the different degrees of control the federal state has over enterprises with various types of shareholdings – greater control is associated with better performance. The paper concludes that the government should avoid keeping equity stakes in companies unless there is a good reason to retain them. If the state wants to keep an ownership stake in a company, reliable control structures must be created. Finally, the issue of golden shares in strategically important companies seems to be a reasonable alternative to retaining some control over them through equity ownership. |
| Keywords: | corporate governance; state ownership; firm performance; Russia |
| Date: | 2007–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2002_012&r=cwa |
| By: | Jaromir Benes; David Vávra; Marta de Castello Branco |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a DGE model designed as a core projection tool to support monetary policy in inflation-targeting (IT) emerging market economies. The paper uses a particularly simple and flexible general equilibrium model structure that can be amended to account for various phenomena that often complicate policy analysis in emerging markets, such as persistent trends in relative prices. The model's calibration is intuitive and can draw on the vast experience many countries have with calibrating small 'gap' models of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the definition of the model's steady state in terms of nominal expenditure ratios, rather than levels of real variables, allows for the easy use of the model in a regular forecast production cycle in an IT central bank. The paper tests the model's properties on recent Turkish data, demonstrating that the main stylized features relevant for monetary policy making are well captured by the model. |
| Date: | 2007–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/197&r=cwa |
| By: | Andreas Billmeier; Isabella Massa |
| Abstract: | Similar to other emerging economies, the Egyptian stock market has recently experienced a remarkable run-up but also a major downturn. This paper analyzes the stock market from two angles. First, it compares the performance of the major stock price index with its underlying fundamentals. Second, it explores the relationship between the Egyptian and other stock markets. The paper finds that (i) there is some evidence against a stable relationship between the Egyptian index and its fundamental value; and (ii) short-term correlations and long-term cointegrating relations provide conflicting signals on the value of Egyptian stocks as a means of diversification. |
| Date: | 2007–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/179&r=cwa |