nep-cwa New Economics Papers
on Central and Western Asia
Issue of 2007‒08‒27
twenty-two papers chosen by
Nurdilek Hacialioglu
Open University

  1. Social Capital and Basic Goods: The Cautionary Tale of Drinking Water in India By Sripad Motiram; Lars Osberg
  2. Projected Economic Growth in China and India: The Role of Demographic Change By Rod Tyers; Jane Golley; Ian Bain
  3. Specialization and adjustment during the growth of China and India : the Latin American experience By Rubiano, Eliana; Olarreaga, Marcelo; Lederman, Daniel
  4. Software Production, Human Capital and Endogenous Growth: Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence from India By Supriyo De
  5. The Differential Sectoral Effects of Policy Shocks : Evidence from Turkey By Hakan Berument; Nildag Basak Ceylan; Eray Yucel
  6. The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Economic Activity in Turkey By Hakan Berument; Magda Kandil; Nergiz Dincer
  7. Financial reforms in China and India: A comparative analysis By Wendy Dobson
  8. The growth of China and India in world trade : opportunity or threat for Latin America and the Caribbean? By Soloaga, Isidro; Olarreaga, Marcelo; Lederman, Daniel
  9. Urbanization and productivity : evidence from Turkish provinces over the period 1980-2000 By Lall, Somik; Deichmann, Uwe; Coulibaly, Souleymane
  10. Labor regulation and employment in India ' s retail stores By Amin, Mohammad
  11. Efficiency and equity impacts of rural land rental restrictions : evidence from India By Nagarajan, Hari K.; Jin, Songqing; Deininger, Klaus
  12. Emerging Middle Powers’ Soft Balancing Strategy: State and Perspectives of the IBSA Dialogue Forum By Daniel Flemes
  13. A Tale of Two Countries: Openness and Growth in China and India By Chee Kian Leong
  14. International Competitiveness—Where Pakistan Stands? By Uzma Zia
  15. BENCHMARK NATIONS AT THE CONVERSION OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS INTO INTERNATIONAL TRADE: A NON-PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE G7 AND BRIC NATIONS By RIVERA RIVERA, Edward Bernard Bastiaan
  16. Determinants and consequences of land sales market participation : panel evidence from India By Nagarajan, Hari K.; Jin, Songqing; Deininger, Klaus
  17. Public Support for Enlargement: Economic, Cultural, or Normative? By Hazama, Yasushi
  18. The Spatial Impacts of Rapid Urbanization on the Limited Surface Water Resources in Istanbul By Mehmet Kucukmehmetoglu; Abdurrahman Geymen
  19. Entrepreneurship in Pakistan By Nadeem Ul Haque
  20. Privatisation in the Meda Region:: Where do we stand? By Céline Kauffmann; Lucia Wegner
  21. State of Corporate Governance in Arab Countries: An Overview By Harabi, Najib
  22. Composite Leading Indicators and Growth Cycles in Major OECD Non-Member Economies and recently new OECD Members Countries By Ronny Nilsson

  1. By: Sripad Motiram; Lars Osberg (Department of Economics, Dalhousie University)
    Keywords: India; water
    Date: 2007–01–19
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dal:wparch:socialcapitalbasicsjan19&r=cwa
  2. By: Rod Tyers; Jane Golley; Ian Bain
    Abstract: Within the next decade, China’s labour force will begin to contract, while that of India will expand faster than its population. Relative labour abundance will bring higher capital returns and an increasing share of global FDI to India. Yet China may relax its One Child Policy further and India’s fertility could follow the pattern elsewhere in Asia and decline faster than expected. These linkages are explored using a global demographic sub-model that is integrated with an adaptation of the GTAP-Dynamic global economic model in which regional households are disaggregated by age and gender. Even with a two-child-policy, China’s growth is projected to slow in future with India becoming the fastest growing economy in the world on the strength of its continued population expansion. While GDP depends positively on fertility and per capita income negatively in both countries, the price of more GDP growth in terms of lost per capita income is lower in China than in India, a result that depends critically on India’s initially higher fertility, its higher youth dependency and the age-gender pattern of its participation rates. India therefore has considerably more to gain, at least in per capita terms, from further reducing its fertility
    JEL: C68 E27 F43 J11 O53
    Date: 2007–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2006-477&r=cwa
  3. By: Rubiano, Eliana; Olarreaga, Marcelo; Lederman, Daniel
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which the growth of China and India in world markets is affecting the patterns of trade specialization in Latin American economies. The authors construct Vollrath ' s measure of revealed comparative advantage by 3-digit ISIC sector, country, and year. This measure accounts for both imports and exports. The empirical analyses explore the correlation between the revealed comparative advantage of Latin America and the two Asian economies. Econometric estimates suggest that the specialization pattern of Latin A-with the exception of Mexico-has been moving in opposite direction of the trade specialization pattern of China and India. Labor-intensive sectors (both unskilled and skilled) probably have been negatively affected by the growing presence of China and India in world markets, while natural resource and scientific knowledge intensive sectors have probably benefited from China and India ' s growth since 1990.
    Keywords: Free Trade,Economic Theory & Research,Trade Policy,Water and Industry,Agricultural Knowledge & Information Systems
    Date: 2007–08–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4318&r=cwa
  4. By: Supriyo De
    Abstract: Propelled by the rise of a vibrant software industry the Indian economy has demonstrated rapid growth since the 1990s. A novel three-sector endogenous growth model that encapsulates the salient features of an information technology oriented economy is developed. The dynamic optimization problem leads to a balanced growth path equilibrium characterized by output, physical capital, software assets, human capital and consumption growing at a uniform rate. Major implications of the model are reflected in empirical evidence from the growth trajectories of Indian states. The human capital production apparatus has a significant impact on economic growth. This has critical policy implications.
    Keywords: endogenous growth, India, information technology, human capital, software
    Date: 2007–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:deg:conpap:c012_007&r=cwa
  5. By: Hakan Berument; Nildag Basak Ceylan; Eray Yucel
    Date: 2007
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bil:bilpap:0703&r=cwa
  6. By: Hakan Berument; Magda Kandil; Nergiz Dincer
    Date: 2007
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bil:bilpap:0704&r=cwa
  7. By: Wendy Dobson (International Tax Program, Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto)
    Abstract: This paper surveys financial reforms in the world’s two most populous and rapidly-growing economies. The contribution of financial systems to long term growth through the efficient mobilization and allocation of scarce capital is well documented in the literature. India’s financial system is popularly perceived to be better developed than China’s, yet they share two significant weaknesses: under-developed corporate bond markets and bank-dominated financial systems. High levels of state ownership of banks are associated with misdirected lending and high costs of intermediation. The paper examines the institutional frameworks that determine incentives in these sectors and marshals empirical evidence that historical decisions and insufficient market reform suggest performance problems persist. These problems will become more evident when growth slows; indeed a crisis may be necessary to force change since prevailing high economic growth rates in spite of the weaknesses undermine the case for deeper reforms.
    Keywords: comparative analysis; financial systems; China and India
    JEL: P O16 G20
    Date: 2007
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ttp:itpwps:0705&r=cwa
  8. By: Soloaga, Isidro; Olarreaga, Marcelo; Lederman, Daniel
    Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between the growth of China and India in world merchandise trade and Latin American and Caribbean commercial flows from two perspectives. First, the authors focus on the opportunity that China and India ' s markets have offered Latin American and Caribbean exporters during 2000-2004. Second, empirical analyses examine the partial correlation between Chinese and Indian bilateral trade flows and Latin American and Caribbean trade with third markets. Both analyses rely on the gravity model of international trade. Econometric estimations that control for the systematic correlation between expected bilateral trade volumes and the size of their regression errors, as well as importer and exporter fixed effects and year effects, provide consistent estimates of the relevant parameters for different groups of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Results suggest that the growth of the two Asian markets has produced large opportunities for Latin American and Caribbean exporters, which nevertheless have not been fully exploited. The evidence concerning the effects of Chinese and Indian trade with third markets is not robust, but there is little evidence of negative effects on Latin American and Caribbean exports of non-fuel merchandise. In general, China ' s and to a large extent India ' s growing presence in world trade has been good news for Latin America and the Caribbean, but some of the potential benefits remain unexploited.
    Keywords: Economic Theory & Research,Free Trade,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Trade Policy,Markets and Market Access
    Date: 2007–08–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4320&r=cwa
  9. By: Lall, Somik; Deichmann, Uwe; Coulibaly, Souleymane
    Abstract: Since the early 1980s, Turkey has been going through a rapid urbanization process at a pace beyond the World average. This paper aims at assessing the impact of this rapid urbanization process on the country ' s sector productivity. The authors built a database combining two-digit manufacturing data and some geographical, infrastructural, and socio-economic data collected at the provincial level by the Turkish State Institute of Statistics. The paper develops a parsimonious econometric relation linking sector productivity to accessibility, localization, and urbanization economies, proxying variables in the tradition of the New Economic Geography literature. The estimation results suggest that both localization and urbanization economies, as well as market accessibility, are productivity-enhancing factors in Turkey, although the causation link between productivity and these agglomeration measures is not clearly established. The sector-by-sector estimation confirms this result, although the localization economies effect is negative for the non-oil mineral sector, and the urbanization economies effect is weak for natural-resource-based sectors such as the wood and metal industry. Although the data cover the period up to 2000 and thus ignore the financial crisis that hit Turkey in 2001, the current structural transformation of the country away from the agricultural sector gives room to use the insights of these results as a preliminary step to understand the new challenges faced by the Turkish manufacturing sector. The results provide a discussion base to revisit the policy agenda on the improvement of the accessibility to markets, the improvement of the business environment to ease the creation and development of new firms, and a well-managed urbanization process to tap in the economic potential of cities.
    Keywords: E-Business,Population Policies,Municipal Financial Management,Economic Theory & Research,
    Date: 2007–08–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4327&r=cwa
  10. By: Amin, Mohammad
    Abstract: A new dataset of 1,948 retail stores in India compiled by the World Bank ' s Enterprise Surveys shows that 27 percent of the stores report labor regulations as a problem for their business. Using these data we analyze the effect of labor regulation on employment at the store level. We find that stricter labor regulation has a strong negative effect on employment. Our estimates show that labor reforms are likely to increase employment by 22 percent of the current level for an average store.
    Keywords: Labor Markets,Labor Policies,Banks & Banking Reform,Regulatory Regimes,Work & Working Conditions
    Date: 2007–08–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4314&r=cwa
  11. By: Nagarajan, Hari K.; Jin, Songqing; Deininger, Klaus
    Abstract: Recognition of the potentially deleterious implications of inequality in opportunity originating in a skewed asset distribution has spawned considerable interest in land reforms. However, little attention has been devoted to fact that, in the longer term, the measures used to implement land reforms could negatively affect productivity. Use of state level data on rental restrictions, together with a nationally representative survey from India, suggests that, contrary to original intenti ons, rental restrictions negatively affect productivity and equity. The restrictions reduce the scope for efficiency-enhancing rental transactions that benefit poor producers. Simulations suggest that, by doubling the number of producers with access to land through rental, from about 15 million currently, liberalization of rental markets could have far-reaching impacts.
    Keywords: Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems,Municipal Housing and Land,Housing & Human Habitats,Climate Change,Land and Real Estate Development
    Date: 2007–08–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4324&r=cwa
  12. By: Daniel Flemes (GIGA Institute of Latin American Studies)
    Abstract: How can weaker states influence stronger ones? This article offers a case study of one recent exercise in coalition building among Southern middle powers, the ‘India, Brazil, South Africa (IBSA) Dialogue Forum’. The analysis outlines five major points: first, it argues that the three emerging players can be defined as middle powers in order to frame their foreign policy behavior and options at the global level. Second, soft balancing is a suitable concept to explain IBSA’s strategy in global institutions. Third, institutional foreign policy instruments are of pivotal significance in IBSA’s soft balancing strategy. Fourth, the potential gains of IBSA’s sector cooperation, particularly in trade, are limited due to a lack of complementarity of the three economies. And fifth, IBSA’s perspectives and impact on the international system will depend on four variables: IBSA’s ability to focus on distinct areas of cooperation, the consolidation of its common strategy of soft balancing, the institutionalization of IBSA, and its enlargement in order to obtain more weight in global bargains.
    Keywords: India, Brazil, South Africa, IBSA Dialogue Forum, middle power, foreign policy, international relations, South-South relations
    Date: 2007–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gig:wpaper:57&r=cwa
  13. By: Chee Kian Leong
    Abstract: The policy by China and India to open their markets to international trade has been touted as the reason for their phenomenal growth. This paper investigates the impact of opening up the China and Indian economy on economic growth in these countries using new panel data sets for both the national economies and the regional economies of China. The policy change to a more liberalized economy is explicitly identified using instrumental variables. The results provide support that export growth does have a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth in these countries. However, the growth rates of these countries are export and FDI inelastic, in the sense that a one percentage point increase in growth rate of export or FDI will have a less than one percentage point increase in economic growth rate of these countries. In the case of the Chinese regions, the presence of export processing zones may exert positive effect on the regional growth rate but the increase in regional growth is even more export inelastic than at the national level. The results dispel the popular view that adopting a policy of more openness in the economy has a “multiplier” effect on economic growth. Of the two phases of liberalization in both countries, the second stage is statistically significant. One possible reason is that the scale of liberalization is greater in the second phase. Additionally, increasing the number of SEZs has very negligible effect on economic growth. Taken together, these results suggest that what contributes to greater growth is a greater scale of liberalization, rather than increasing the number of SEZs.
    Date: 2007–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:deg:conpap:c012_042&r=cwa
  14. By: Uzma Zia (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)
    Abstract: The concept of competitiveness has been widely accepted and has become a part of discussion in world-wide forums. Today global economy cannot be explained in the same manner as it was a few decades ago. Improved competitiveness of economies is a need of the day and ability to compete in the world market is of major concern. This paper attempts to assess the position of Pakistan in the International Competitiveness. As a survey paper, the concept, definition and the measurement of competitiveness have been analysed further to assess Pakistan’s position in the region. Competitiveness is linked with export performance of other trading and non trading countries. Pakistan’s export performance is analysed in this context. Lessons for Pakistan have been drawn on the basis of experiences of emerging economies. It has been concluded that countries can strengthen their export markets with the passage of time. They need to improve the governance as well as technological progress to increase high-tech exports. Developing countries like Pakistan start from low technology and with passage of time shift to improved technologies. Technology-based activities help improving export performance that brings competitiveness of a country. The paper also suggests a model to government of Pakistan which describes that high technology exports will be a result of extensive Research and Development (R&D) using human capital as an investment in the country. The success depends upon the combined efforts of the government, individuals and business initiatives both in public and private sectors.
    Keywords: Competitiveness, Growth Performance
    JEL: O33
    Date: 2007
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:28&r=cwa
  15. By: RIVERA RIVERA, Edward Bernard Bastiaan
    Abstract: Exploring the relationship evidenced by literature between FDI and trade, a non-parametric approach has been developed in order to create an index that reflects the nations' capacity to generate imports and exports from FDI inflows and outflows. Thus, a ranking (FDI-Trade Index Ranking) has been elaborated on which the G7 and the BRIC countries are analyzed. The results indicate that China, India, Japan and Russia are the benchmark nations – countries internationally classified as the “big movers” of the new structure of global trade.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; Internationalization Strategy; Productivity
    JEL: F21
    Date: 2007–05–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4531&r=cwa
  16. By: Nagarajan, Hari K.; Jin, Songqing; Deininger, Klaus
    Abstract: Although opinions on impacts of land market transfers are sharply divided, few studies explore the welfare and productivity effects of land markets on a larger scale. This paper uses a large Indian panel spanning almost 20 years, together with a climatic shock (rainfall) indicator, to assess the productivity and equity effects of market-mediated land transfers (sale and purchase) compared with no n-market ones (inheritance). The analysis shows that frequent shocks increase land market activity, an effect that is mitigated by the presence of safety nets and banks. Land sales markets improved productivity and helped purchasers, many of whom were formerly landless, to accumulate non-land assets and significantly enhance their welfare.
    Keywords: Banks & Banking Reform,Markets and Market Access,Municipal Housing and Land,,Real Estate Development
    Date: 2007–08–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4323&r=cwa
  17. By: Hazama, Yasushi
    Abstract: The current research questioned whether public opinion on enlargement can be adequately explained only by economic calculation and cultural/community identity. When the analytical viewpoint was expanded from the conventional individual level to state level, it was revealed that constructivist considerations—such as the democratization and reunification of Europe—play a critical role in pushing forward enlargement. Drawing on the perspective of international relations, this study introduced a synthetic model to analyze public opinion on enlargement in the EU’s 15 old member states. The analysis using a Eurobarometer dataset showed that on public support for enlargement, constructivist attitudes held as much sway as cultural/community attitudes. In fact, expectations of democratization were the most important determinant of support for enlargement in the case of Turkey.
    Keywords: EU, Enlargement, Public opinion, Turkey, International economic integration
    JEL: F15
    Date: 2007–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper107&r=cwa
  18. By: Mehmet Kucukmehmetoglu; Abdurrahman Geymen
    Abstract: In the second half of the 20th Century, during which Turkey has experienced rapid industrialization and urbanization, Istanbul has been the destination of influx of large scale rural to urban migrants. Between 1950 and 2000, the city has grown by an average of 4.5% annually. The city has been the preferred destination not only by large numbers of low skilled rural migrants who seek employment in various informal sectors, but also by capital owners looking for a large scale cheap labor source and an extensive local market. Besides, Istanbul provides a relatively well established basic infrastructure (e.g. transportation and services) compared to the rest of Turkey. Given the scale of the growth, neither local nor the central governments have shown capability of controlling the influx of migration, most of which settled illegally on public lands creating low quality low cost housing and industrial environments. Most of the settlements lack the basic sewerage facilities, and a significant portion of which are on the major water resources basins. As of today, the Municipality of Istanbul not only has to cope with the infrastructure problems, but also has to find ways of solving the problem of illegal occupations of public lands and water resource basins. This paper presents the land use changes in the water resources basins providing water to the Istanbul Metropolitan Area. Using four consecutive Landsat images between 1990 and 2005, the changes in 12 different land use categories are obtained via overlay operations by GIS for 12 major water resources basins surrounding the city of Istanbul. It has been observed that the most critical land use changes are in the nearest basins to the city. It has also been observed that large public capital improvement projects such as Trans-European Motorway (TEM) triggered the trend of illegal occupation of these public lands most of which is in the water resources basins. The capability of Landsat images in determining the alterations in the macro form of the city are also discussed. Finally, possible policy implications are put forward for the preservation of water resources basins in Istanbul.
    Date: 2006–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa06p740&r=cwa
  19. By: Nadeem Ul Haque (Formerly Vice-Chancellor Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)
    Abstract: Entrepreneurship is viewed by economists to be a combination of innovation and risk taking. When such activity thrives, high growth rates are achieved as well as opportunities offered to all segments of society, including the poor. The latter benefit form growth and employment as well as through opportunities for entrepreneurship. In Pakistan innovation and risk taking is severely inhibited by the intrusive role of government in the marketplace. From the early days of planning when protection and subsidy polic ies determined winners in the market place, entrepreneurship has been diverted to seeking government favours. Government economic policy also seeks to promote growth through a basically ‘mercantilist’ approach where domestic commerce through seriously neglect is heavily regulated. This sector either employs most of the poor or offers them entrepreneurial opportunities. Hence deregulating this sector could be a priority in and anti-poor strategy. The paper also argues that land distribution and city zoning and management have also evolved to further reinforce the prevalent rent seeking path to success. The result is that cities are by design not allowed to become clusters of commerce that will be entrepreneur friendly. These clusters of dense urban commerce are magnets of employment and opportunity for the poor. To develop an entrepreneurship culture in the country, the system of incentives (laws and policies) that promote rent seeking will have to be dismantled. This paper presents an analysis of the state of entrepreneurship/rent seeking prevailing in Pakistan. This analysis allows us to obtain and understanding of the kinds of reforms (including legislative changes) that are required to develop entrepreneurship.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship, New Firm, Startups
    JEL: M13
    Date: 2007
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:29&r=cwa
  20. By: Céline Kauffmann; Lucia Wegner
    Abstract: This paper builds on a new database (PRIVMEDA) in order to assess the progress of the privatisation process in the MEDA countries of Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Malta, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. The first part of the paper offers an overview of the privatisation record from 1990 to 2006. It shows that, as in other parts of the world, the first wave of privatisations in the 1990s, which focused almost exclusively on profit-making enterprises in the tourism, transport, food and construction material sectors, slowed down towards the early 2000s and rebounded in 2005 when larger utilities where earmarked for sale. The second part of the paper assesses the outcome of the privatisation process in light of three key objectives: fiscal proceeds, economic efficiency and the development of the local private sector. It concludes that privatisation in the MEDA region can successfully promote efficiency and private sector development only when embedded in a package of measures, including the setting up of a proper regulatory framework, the improvement of the business climate and the liberalisation of financial markets.
    Keywords: regulatory reforms, privatisation
    JEL: G32 L33
    Date: 2007–07–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaaa:261-en&r=cwa
  21. By: Harabi, Najib
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to assess the state of corporate governance as a major factor affecting the growth performance of the private sector in MENA countries. For this purpose both country-specific assessments, carried out by World Bank-IMF teams (so-called ROSC’s assessments) and focus-group discussions that took place in four regional conferences have been synthesized. Strengths and weaknesses of corporate governance in selected Arab countries have been highlighted. One major key finding is that the legal and regulatory frameworks of the assessed Arab countries are largely compliant with the OECD Principles of corporate governance. However, practices are not. The difficulty of the assessments is to reflect properly the discrepancies between the letter of the law and compliance. It should be emphasized that the World Bank-IMF assessments focus on listed companies. No-listed firms, especially SME, family-owned firms and State-owned enterprises that make up to 98% of all firms, are not subject to assessments. Another key finding that emerged from our reviewing of the regional conferences on corporate governance is that corporate governance issues have not been ignored in public debates in the MENA region. Practitioners from capital markets, banks, public and private sector representatives and other civil society groups have accepted the need to address corporate governance reforms as one of the crucial topics affecting the economic growth and development of firms, industries and whole economies in their region. Several meetings and conferences at the national and regional level have taken place. Appropriate and up-to-date recommendations regarding corporate governance reform in the MENA region have been adopted in those events. It is now up to the decision makers at all levels to implement those recommendations
    Keywords: Corporate Governance; Governance; state and business; business regulations; corporate finance; economic development; Arab countries; Middle East and North Africa
    JEL: G3 O16 G38
    Date: 2007–02–15
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4566&r=cwa
  22. By: Ronny Nilsson
    Abstract: The OECD developed a System of Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) for its Member Countries in the early 1980?s based on the ?growth cycle? approach and up to 2006 the Organisation compiled composite leading indicators for 23 of the 30 Member countries. Country coverage has now been expanded to include recently new OECD member countries (Korea, New Zealand1, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovak Republic) and the major six OECD non-member economies (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russian Federation and South Africa) monitored by the organization in the OECD System of Composite Leading Indicators. The expansion of the OECD System of Composite Leading Indicators to include the new CLIs for the six recently new OECD member countries has implications for the calculation of the OECD total area and the OECD Europe area aggregates. In addition, the inclusion of the new CLIs for all of above twelve countries opens the possibility to calculate new area aggregates such as Major Asian economies, Eastern Europe including or excluding the Russian Federation and a World proxy to give information on the overall global development. The importance of such new regional or area aggregates is of course very much dependent on the existence of different cyclical patterns between these new aggregates and the established ones. However, the calculation of a World proxy aggregate is important in itself in so far that it will represent global development better than the OECD total area aggregate. <BR>L'OCDE a développé un système d'indicateurs composites avancés (CLIs) pour ses pays membres au début des années 80 basé sur l'approche du cycle de croissance. Jusqu'en 2006, l'Organisation a compilé ces indicateurs composites avancés pour 23 de ses 30 pays membres. La couverture géographique s?est agrandie et tient compte maintenant des pays nouvellement membres de l'Organisation (la Corée, la Nouvelle Zélande, la République tchèque, la Hongrie, la Pologne et la République slovaque). Les six principales économies non membres de l'OCDE (le Brésil, la Chine, l'Inde, l'Indonésie, la Fédération de Russie et l'Afrique du Sud) ont été également introduites dans le système des indicateurs composites avancés de l'OCDE. L'ouverture des six nouveaux pays membres au système des indicateurs composites avancés de l'OCDE a eu des implications quant au calcul des agrégats de la zone OCDE total et de la zone OCDE Europe. De plus, l'inclusion de ces indicateurs composites avancés pour les 12 nouveaux pays su mentionnés ouvre la possibilité au calcul de nouveaux agrégats tels que l'Asie des 5 grands, l?Europe de l'Est avec ou sans la Fédération de Russie et une zone monde approximatif qui donnerait une information sur le développement global total. L'importance de tels nouveaux agrégats régionaux ou totaux dépend beaucoup de l'existence de schémas cycliques différents entre ces nouveaux agrégats et ceux déjà établis. Cependant, le calcul d'un agrégat monde approximatif est très important en soit car il représentera mieux le développement global que ne le faisait l'agrégat de la zone OCDE total.
    Date: 2006–12–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stdaaa:2006/5-en&r=cwa

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