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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Dimaranan, Betina; Ianchovichina, Elena; Martin, Will |
| Abstract: | Although both China and India are labor-abundant and dependant on manufactures, their export mixes are very different. Only one product-refined petroleum-appears in the top 25 products for both countries, and services exports are roughly twice as important for India as for China, which is much better integrated into global production networks. Even assuming India also begins to integrate into global production chains and expands exports of manufactures, there seems to be opportunity for rapid growth in both countries. Accelerated growth through efficiency improvements in China and India, especially in their high-tech industries, will intensify competition in global markets leading to contraction of the manufacturing sectors in many countries. Improvement in the range and quality of exports from China and India has the potential to create substantial welfare benefits for the world, and for China and India, and to act as a powerful offset to the terms-of-trade losses otherwise associated with rapid export growth. However, without efforts to keep up with China and India, some countries may see further erosio n of their export shares and high-tech manufacturing sectors. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory & Research,Trade Policy,Free Trade,Emerging Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4304&r=cwa |
| By: | Pami Dua (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, Delhi, India and Economic Cycle Research Institute, New York); Anirvan Banerji (Economic Cycle Research Institute, New York) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the real-time performance of the growth rate of the DSE-ECRI Indian leading index for exports for predicting cyclical downturns and upturns in the growth rate of Indian exports. The index comprises the 36-country real effective exchange rate and leading indices of India’s 17 major trading partners. Leading indices of India’s major trading partners were developed at the Economic Cycle Research Institute and forecast the onset and end of recessions in overall economic activity in these economies. The results show that the real-time performance of the growth rate of the leading index of Indian exports has been creditable in the last seven years since its construction in 2001. In conjunction with the DSE-ECRI Indian Leading Index, designed to monitor the domestic economy, the exports leading index forms a sound foundation for a pioneering effort to monitor Indian economic cycles. |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:156&r=cwa |
| By: | Abramson, Bruce |
| Abstract: | The decade following India ' s accession to the World Trade Organization ' s Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property ushered in numerous changes to the country ' s patent system, culminating in a series of amendments in 2005. But a functioning patent system is more than a statute. This paper discusses the steps that India must still take to develop an effective, functioning patent system capable of attracting foreign direct investment, motivating domestic innovation and education, and filtering its benefits to all elements of Indian society, including the poor and the possessors of traditional knowledge. The analysis combines data studies of historical and recent patenting activity in India and by Indians, interviews with Indian government officials, intellectual property attorneys, industrialists, and researchers, and lessons gleaned from patent systems abroad. It identifies critical needs and concrete steps to meet them. Improving public awareness of the revenue-generating potential of patents will enhance incentives for the participation of individuals and small and medium enterprises in the patent system. Formalizing guidelines for patents derived through government research funds-coupled with needed changes in institutional governance-will enhance prospects for technology transfer from laboratories to commercial markets. Compensation schemes for traditional knowledge will extend the benefits of intellectual property rights to the poorest members of society. This paper ' s recommendations would help India achieve both a fully functioning patent system and a mechanism for ensuring that poor people living traditional lifestyles receive their share of the social gains that a working innovation system can confer. |
| Keywords: | E-Business,Technology Industry,Labor Policies,Real & Intellectual Property Law,Knowledge Economy |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4301&r=cwa |
| By: | Gianna Claudia Giannelli; Francesca Francavilla |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with female employment in developing countries. We set out a model to test our argument that, at the first stage of development, demographic and health programs have proven to be more effective for women’s position in the society than specific labour and income support policies. Our household model in the collective framework predicts that an exogenous improvement in household production technology due to demographic and health policies gives the wife the opportunity to employ her time resources more efficiently, and, by consequence, the power to choose to participate or not to the labour market. A unique, rich and representative data survey for all Indian states and rural India (NFHS-2, 1998-1999) allows us to analyse the role of Family Planning (FP), reproductive and child care programmes, for the employment probability of married women aged 15 to 49. Our results for urban and rural India show that the FP effect is significant in rural India, that is, women that have been visited by an FP public worker have a higher probability of being employed. Moreover, for rural India, we compare this effect with that one of Governmental Policies (GP) supporting household income and promoting female employment. Our results show that the effect of this particular FP intervention has been more effective for women’s employment than GP. This result appears to be robust across different definitions of female employment and model specifications. |
| Keywords: | Womens’s employment in Developing Countries, Family Planning, Urban and Rural Analyses |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 O18 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpc:wplist:wp05_07&r=cwa |
| By: | Chang-Tai Hsieh; Peter J. Klenow |
| Abstract: | Resource misallocation can lower aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). We use micro data on manufacturing establishments to quantify the extent of this misallocation in China and India compared to the U.S. in recent years. Compared to the U.S., we measure sizable gaps in marginal products of labor and capital across plants within narrowly-defined industries in China and India. When capital and labor are hypothetically reallocated to equalize marginal products to the extent observed in the U.S., we calculate manufacturing TFP gains of 25-40% in China and 50-60% in India. |
| JEL: | O11 O47 O53 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13290&r=cwa |
| By: | K. Sundaram (Delhi School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper is principally focused on the changes in the size and structure of work force and the changes in labour productivity, wages and poverty in India in the first quinquennuim of the 21st century. The period between 2000 and 2005 saw a sharp acceleration in work force growth, and, on the obverse side, a slow-down in the rate of growth of labour productivity across most sectors and in the economy as a whole, and, a slow-down (a decline) in real wage growth in rural (urban) India. On a comparable basis, the reduction in poverty over this period is shown to be substantially smaller than indicated by other recent analyses. Consistent with the trends in labour productivity and real wages, relative to the 1994-2000 period, the pace of poverty reduction between 2000 and 2005 shows, at best, a marginal acceleration (or a marginal deceleration, depending on the choice of poverty lines) in rural India and a clear slow-down in urban India. This period also saw a small rise in the number of working poor and a substantial rise in the number of self-employed and regular wage/salary workers in ‘above poverty line’ or APL-households. |
| Keywords: | Employment Growth, Employment Structure, Labour Productivity, Real Wages, Poverty, Working Poor and Employment Quality. |
| JEL: | J21 J23 |
| Date: | 2007–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:155&r=cwa |
| By: | Robert Jensen; Emily Oster |
| Abstract: | Cable and satellite television have grown rapidly throughout the developing world. The availability of cable and satellite television exposes viewers to new information about the outside world, which may affect individual attitudes and behaviors. This paper explores the effect of the introduction of cable television on gender attitudes in rural India. Using a three-year individual-level panel dataset, we find that the introduction of cable television is associated with improvements in women's status. We find significant increases in reported autonomy, decreases in the reported acceptability of beating and decreases in reported son preference. We also find increases in female school enrollment and decreases in fertility (primarily via increased birth spacing). The effects are large, equivalent in some cases to about five years of education in the cross section, and move gender attitudes of individuals in rural areas much closer to those in urban areas. We argue that the results are not driven by pre-existing differential trends. These results have important policy implications, as India and other countries attempt to decrease bias against women. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 O12 O33 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13305&r=cwa |
| By: | Siddiqui, Rizwana |
| Abstract: | Is household income enough for human development or government should heed to direct provision of social services to improve capabilities of individual. The former emphasized by the World Bank and later by the UNDP. This paper tests the argument by estimating a basic need policy model for Pakistan using cross district data. The results are consistent with the view that government provision of social services affects human capabilities significantly. However, the ultimate constraints on the sustainable capability development are material resources. |
| Keywords: | Basic Needs; Public Services; Household Income; Poverty |
| JEL: | I31 I38 I32 D31 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4409&r=cwa |
| By: | Harabi, Najib |
| Abstract: | Knowledge has always been at the heart of economic growth and development. It is disseminated chiefly through the different stages of education, R&D, the mass media and the translation industry. In Arab countries there has been a widespread impression that there is a low level of translation activities, which in turn has led to a low output of the translation industry in those countries. This paper addresses this issue; its overall objectives are (1) to describe the economic performance of the Arabic book translation industry in Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Syria; (2) to understand empirically the economic performance of that industry, the focus here being on qualitatively analyzing the major determinants (positive and negative factors) affecting the growth process of that industry; and (3) to provide policy makers and business leaders in the Arab region with theoretically sound and evidence-based advice on the issues analyzed in the project. To provide an empirical base for answering those questions, both published data and fresh new data have been used. For the latter purpose, a questionnaire-based survey was conducted in the year 2005 among 190 experts, covering firm representatives and experts in industry and government. The Porter (Diamond) model has been used as a theoretical background. The empirical results were incorporated in five national case studies. This paper synthesizes the results of the national reports, giving a comparative account of the performance of the Arabic book translation industry in the five Arab countries. The overall results suggest that the Arabic book translation industry in these Arab countries has not yet achieved the level of development of other developing and developed countries. Underperformance of the Arabic book translation industry is attributable to (among other factors) severe coordination failures. This is a state of affairs in which the inability of the different agents (translators, book publishers, suppliers, customers, and supporting organizations, state, and so forth) to coordinate their behavior (choices) leads to suboptimal outcomes. Since the economic performance of the translation industry often involves complementary investments whose return depends on other investments being made by other agents, coordination is crucial. Obviously, neither market forces nor the state have undertaken this coordination activity sufficiently. The Arabic book translation industry seems to suffer from both market failure and government failure. In light of these results the Arabic book translation industry offers great economic potential that should be mobilized systematically in the future. This paper discusses how this can be achieved, based on a well-designed and implemented process of upgrading and innovation in companies, industries, and clusters related to translation activities. Public policy, properly understood and adequately implemented, can play an important role in this process. To overcome, or at least to mitigate, some of the major coordination failures in the Arabic translation industry, it is necessary to select an existing pan-Arab nongovernmental organization (NGO) or to create a new one, whose mission would include two major groups of activities: The first action would involve the coordination of activities on the supply side of the Arabic translation industry. This group of activities would encompass the following: 1. Improving the documentation of Arabic translation needs. This can be achieved by creating a regional Internet-based database that would constitute an information base on what has been translated, what is being translated, and what will be translated from foreign languages into Arabic. 2. Designing and implementing translation support programs (including providing financial means) on a sustainable basis. This would create and maintain a critical mass of translators and publishing companies. 3. Promoting translation quality assessment programs. This would mitigate the widely known problem of poor quality translation. 4. Designing and implementing training programs for translators and publishing companies involved in the translation business. This would increase the number of translators and improve the quality of translation activities. 5. Promoting networks among writers, translators, and publishers that facilitate contacts and create opportunities for new translation projects. Such additional communication channels would spur new project development. All these measures are intended to strengthen the supply side of the translation industry in Arab countries. The second action would involve the coordination of activities on the demand side of the Arabic translation industry. The suggested NGO should support readership surveys and promote reading programs. This can be done in collaboration with radio and television stations, print media, schools and universities, and so forth. These measures would help to identify the real needs of the reading public and enhance the culture of reading, especially among young people. |
| Keywords: | Arabic Book market; economics of translation; transaltion industry; Arab world; Egypt; Morocco; Saudi-Arabia; Lebanon; Syria |
| JEL: | Z11 L69 |
| Date: | 2007–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4385&r=cwa |