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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Husain, Fazal |
| Abstract: | This paper re-examines the causal relationship between stock prices and the variables representing the real sector of the Pakistani economy.Using annual data from 1959/60 to 2004/05, examining the stochastic properties of the variables used in the analysis, and taking care of the shifts in the series due to the start of the economic liberalization program in the early 1990s, the paper investigates the causal relations between stock prices and variables like real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), real consumption expenditure, and real investment spending. The analysis indicates the presence of a long run relationship between stock prices and the real sector variables. Regarding the cause and effect relationship, the analysis indicates a one-way causation from the real sector to stock prices implying that the stock market in Pakistan is still not that developed to influence the real sector of the economy. Hence the market cannot be characterized as the leading indicator of the economic activity in Pakistan |
| Keywords: | Stock Prices; Causal Relations; Real Sector; Economic Activity; Pakistan |
| JEL: | G1 E44 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4162&r=cwa |
| By: | Ardic, Oya Pinar; Damar, H. Evren |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of financial sector deepening on economic growth using a province-level data set for 1996-2001 on Turkey. This period is associated with a weakly regulated and relatively unsupervised expansion of the banking sector which led to the 2001 financial crisis. Contrary to findings in the previous literature, our results indicate a strong negative relationship between financial deepening-both public and private-and economic growth. In light of the developments in the period of analysis, this result is not surprising, as the main function of the banking sector at that time was to provide financing for the Turkish Treasury, which channeled these funds to the government-albeit mainly for rent distribution purposes. However, it is important to note that the growth of private banking sector needs yet to be examined separately, as government ownership of banks may distort the development of the banking sector as a whole. Yet, it is possible to conclude that financial development may not always contribute to economic growth, and the conditions under which such a contribution takes place should be investigated further. |
| Keywords: | Financial sector; Economic growth; Panel data; GMM; Turkey |
| JEL: | G21 O16 O4 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4077&r=cwa |
| By: | Husain, Fazal; Rashid, Abdul |
| Abstract: | This study re-examines the causal relations between money and the two variables, i.e., income and prices. Using annual data from 1959/60 to 2003/04, examining the stochastic properties of the variables used in the analysis, and taking care of the shifts in the series due to the start of the economic liberalization program in the early 1990s, we investigate the causal relations between real money and real income, between nominal money and nominal income, and between nominal money and prices. The analysis indicates, in general, the long run relationship among money, income, and prices. The analysis further suggests a one way causation from income to money in the long run implying that probably real factors rather than money supply has played a major role in increasing PakistanÃÂâÃÂÃÂÃÂÃÂs national income. The study fails to find the active role of money in changing income even after taking care of possible shifts in these variables due to the economic reforms. As Regards the causal relationship between money and prices, the analysis suggests a unidirectional causality from money to prices implying monetary expansion increases inflation in Pakistan. |
| Keywords: | Money; Income; Prices; Economic Liberalization; Causal Relations; Pakistan |
| JEL: | E40 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:3241&r=cwa |
| By: | Sivagnanam, K. Jothi |
| Abstract: | An attempt has been made in this paper to study the linkage between decentralisation and poverty reduction with special reference to panchayati raj institutions in Tamil Nadu. The policy implication of the study emphasises that the process of decentralisation should be designed and implemented so as to achieve required reduction in poverty. In the globalised era, decentralization has attracted significant interest in recent years. Decentralization is being seen as one of the missing institutional link between economic growth and distributive justice. Decentralisation is linked to poverty reduction in many ways. While decentralization has become a development strategy of many developing countries, its linkage to poverty reduction in particular has been the subject of recent time. In India, where social and rural sector are still backward and further affected by the ongoing liberalisation, privatisation and globalisation process, even high growth rates and innumerable poverty eradication schemes of the union as well as the state governments have failed to ensure distributive justice and left millions in sustained deprivation. Panchayati raj institutions could be a promising institutional link to combat poverty in terms of efficient designing and effective targeting. |
| Keywords: | Poverty Reduction; Decentralisation; Rural Panchayats; Tamil Nadu |
| JEL: | I38 R51 H75 |
| Date: | 2007–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:3210&r=cwa |
| By: | Khan, Muhammad Arshad; khan, Sajawal |
| Abstract: | In this paper an attempt has been made to review the financial restructuring process and its importance for economic growth and macroeconomic stability. The main focus is on the financial restructuring efforts undertaken by the government of Pakistan since 1990. We alsoanalyze the impacts of financial restructuring by using various financial indicators. The overallresults suggest that financial industry in Pakistan showing remarkable and unprecedented growth.Unlike 1990, the performance of financial sector is much better today. After the successfullycompletion of first generation of reforms, the introduction of second generation of reforms arerequired, which helps further strengthen the financial system and transform the benefits of the first generation of reforms to common man. |
| JEL: | G1 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4141&r=cwa |
| By: | Abbas, Qaisar; Foreman-Peck, James (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between human capital and economic growth in Pakistan with time series data. The aggregate production function results reject the endogenous growth formulation but indicate broadly similar productivity of secondary schooling to that in OECD economies. Because schooling returns should be higher in a developing economy, this similarity is interpreted as evidence of low average quality schooling. Returns to health spending compare favorably with industrial investment. A substantial portion of growth is due to exogenous factors, including policies, the positive contribution of which appears to have declined after the 1980s. Human capital is estimated to have accounted for about 40 percent of the increase in GDP per head, a figure that is probably biased downwards because of the many unmeasured dimensions of human capital. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital; Economic Growth; ECM; Pakistan |
| JEL: | C13 C22 C51 O15 O53 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2007/22&r=cwa |
| By: | Adaman, Fikret; Ardic, Oya Pinar; Tuzemen, Didem |
| Abstract: | It is a truism that households in developing countries that face idiosyncratic income/expenditure shocks may face difficulties in smoothing consumption through formal credit institutions, and hence rely, at least partially, on informal ties. While this issue has been explored extensively in the literature for rural areas, the picture reflecting the urban setting remains relatively uninvestigated. This paper aims to fill this gap by presenting an exclusively designed survey implemented in Istanbul. The results of a multi-stage logit estimation of the survey data indicate that monetary transfers from social networks and formal loans are complements, while general usage of network help implies an increased likelihood of asking for network help for easy and/or favorable access to credit. In addition, material security emerges as the key determinant of both eligibility for and use of a formal loan, and of having network help available in easing the loan approval process by banks. |
| Keywords: | Social networks; risk sharing; credit market access; Turkey; household survey. |
| JEL: | C35 O18 Z13 D12 C42 |
| Date: | 2006–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4078&r=cwa |
| By: | Alper, C. Emre; Ardic, Oya Pinar; Fendoglu, Salih |
| Abstract: | Financial account liberalizations since the second half of the 1980s paved way for the burgeoning literature that investigates foreign exchange market efficiency in emerging markets via testing for the uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition. This paper provides a broad and critical survey on this recent literature as well as a general understanding on the topic through reviewing the related literature on developed economies where recent methodological advances in time series econometrics have provided favorable results, questioning the previously documented UIP puzzle. The literature on emerging markets suggests that these countries deserve a special treatment by taking into account the existence of additional types of risk premia, high inflation episodes, financial contagion, peso problem, simultaneity problem, asymmetricity, and the determination of de facto structural breaks. |
| Keywords: | Uncovered Interest Parity; Forward Premium Bias; Emerging Markets. |
| JEL: | F31 |
| Date: | 2007–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4079&r=cwa |
| By: | Gottlieb, Daniel |
| Abstract: | The Haredi (Jewish ultra-orthodox) population in Israel is an idiosyncratic community. Its members are committed to the observance of the Bible and its commandments, as interpreted by its sectarian religious leaders. Haredi poverty is exceptionally high, with a share of 20% of the Israeli poor and a population share half that size. Its major causes are very high Haredi fertility (a population growth of 6% p.a.), reducing household income per capita and the motherÃÂâÃÂÃÂÃÂÃÂs earning capacity; its independent education systemÃÂâÃÂÃÂÃÂÃÂs neglect (particularly among boys) of materially important subjects for future earning capacity such as Mathematics, English and digital skills; and low labor-force participation of Haredi men, due to prolonged learning in religious seminars (Yeshiva), often deeply into the prime working age. A further cause for the sharp increase in poverty in the short term has been the recent large cuts in child benefit payments. The estimation of the size and composition of the Haredi population is based on data from the Israeli Social Survey. Poverty calculations are based on an innovative way of optimally matching data on Haredi group membership from that source with data in the Household Expenditure Survey, thus allowing for improved identification of poor Haredi households compared to previous studies. Poverty is calculated both on a needs-based approach and on the (official) relative approach. The share of Haredi children up to age 4 is nearly 3 times higher than in the Jewish non-Haredi society. This, together with the empirical regularity of a negative relationship between poverty and age, implies an upward trend for Haredi and overall Israeli poverty over time. Haredi Poverty, as measured by the distribution-sensitive Sen-poverty index, nearly doubled over the last three years after a previous significant improvement. This deterioration stands in contrast to developments in the rest of the Israeli-Jewish society, whose poverty intensity increased only slightly over the last couple of years. In 2004 the Haredi menÃÂâÃÂÃÂÃÂÃÂs labor force participation of 37% only slightly exceeded one half that of the general Jewish population, mainly due to the high enrollment of Haredi men in religious seminars (Yeshiva) during their prime working age. Despite their much higher fertility, women function as the familyÃÂâÃÂÃÂÃÂÃÂs main providers, with a participation rate of 48%, compared to 58% of non-Haredi women. |
| Keywords: | Poverty; Religion; Israel; Ethnic groups; Ultra-Orthodox; Alternative Poverty Measures; |
| JEL: | I32 J15 |
| Date: | 2007–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4024&r=cwa |
| By: | Harabi, Najib |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the major instruments of industrial policy in Morocco since its independence (1956) and assesses them empirically. Regarding the second objective, several methods for assessing the impact of industrial policy exist in the economic literature. In this paper the question is raised whether government selective policies have contributed to economic growth of private firms in Morocco. To answer this question empirically, the paper analyzes the factors affecting the growth process of Moroccan private firms, including selective government policies. The analysis is based on a field survey of 850 firms carried out under the auspices of the World Bank in 2004. The sample includes firms of different sizes and covers all major manufacturing industries. A major result of this case study is that they are indirect clues of the inefficacy of industrial policies in Morocco, at least measured by their impact on firm growth. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Policy; Morocco; Economic Development |
| JEL: | L52 L53 |
| Date: | 2007–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4194&r=cwa |
| By: | HUSSIEN, ALASRAG |
| Abstract: | This research aims to study the developmental role of small business enterprises in the Arab countries in the light of the growing interest in it, through the identification of the concept and importance of small business enterprises for the Arab States, the most important challenges facing development, and finally the research tries to propose a number of policy recommendations to develop and activate this important sector in the Arab countries. |
| JEL: | F59 F43 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4110&r=cwa |