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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Mamoon, Dawood; Mansoob, S. Murshed |
| Abstract: | The paper traces the causal links of Indo-Pakistan conflict with trade, military expenditure and democracy under multivariate time series framework from 1950-2005. We find that higher exports to outside world and increased bilateral trade have high propensity to reduce hostilities between both nations. Furthermore, historically high military expenditures in Pakistan have been a direct outcome of continued hostilities in its Eastern borders whereas Indian military expenditure is weakly related with the conflict. Political orientation of both countries does not seem to significantly affect the conflict either. Overall, the findings support the case for liberal (economic) peace than political (democratic) peace. |
| Keywords: | Inter-state conflict and trade; democracy and conflict; conflict and economic development. |
| JEL: | F51 F15 F53 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:3069&r=cwa |
| By: | Mamoon, Dawood; Murshed, S. Mansoob |
| Abstract: | The paper traces the causal links of Indo-Pakistan conflict with trade, military expenditure and democracy under multivariate time series framework from 1950-2005. We find that higher exports to outside world and increased bilateral trade have high propensity to reduce hostilities between both nations. Furthermore, historically high military expenditures in Pakistan have been a direct outcome of continued hostilities in its Eastern borders whereas Indian military expenditure is weakly related with the conflict. Political orientation of both countries does not seem to significantly affect the conflict either. Overall, the findings support the case for liberal (economic) peace than political (democratic) peace. |
| Keywords: | Inter-state conflict and trade; democracy and conflict; conflict and economic development. |
| JEL: | F15 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:3075&r=cwa |
| By: | Gianna Claudia Giannelli (University of Florence, CHILD and IZA); Francesca Francavilla (University of Florence) |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with female employment in developing countries. We set out a model to test our argument that, at the first stage of development, demographic and health programmes have proven to be more effective for women’s position in the society than specific labour and income support policies. Our household model in the collective framework predicts that an exogenous improvement in household production technology due to demographic and health policies gives the wife the opportunity to employ her time resources more efficiently, and, by consequence, the power to choose to participate or not to the labour market. A unique, rich and representative data survey for all Indian states and rural India (NFHS-2, 1998-1999) allows us to analyse the role of Family Planning (FP), reproductive and child care programmes, for the employment probability of married women aged 15 to 49. Our results for urban and rural India show that the FP effect is significant in rural India, that is, women that have been visited by an FP public worker have a higher probability of being employed. Moreover, for rural India, we compare this effect with that one of Governmental Policies (GP) supporting household income and promoting employment. Our results show that the effect of this particular FP intervention has been more effective for women’s employment than GP. This result appears to be robust across different definitions of female employment and model specifications. |
| Keywords: | women’s employment in developing countries, family planning, urban and rural analyses |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 O18 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2762&r=cwa |
| By: | Facchini, Giovanni; Olarreaga, Marcelo; Silva, Peri; Willmann, Gerald |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the trade policy response of Latin American governments to the rapid growth of China and India in world markets. To explain higher protection in sectors where a large share is imported from these countries, we extend the `protection for sale' model to allow for different degrees of substitutability between domestically produced and imported varieties. The extension suggests that higher levels of protection towards Chinese goods can be explained by high substitutability between domestically produced goods and Chinese goods, whereas lower levels of protection towards goods imported from India can be explained by low substitutability with domestically produced goods. The data supports the extension to the `protection for sale' model, which performs better than the original specification in terms of explaining Latin America's structure of protection. |
| Keywords: | Latin America, Protectionism |
| JEL: | F10 F11 F13 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauewp:5536&r=cwa |
| By: | Barbara Harriss-White and John Harriss |
| Abstract: | This working paper has two objectives. The first is to summarise the results of rounds of research from 1973 onwards on the green revolution in South India. It provides background both to the research reported in Harriss-White, Janakarajan et al, 2004, 'Rural India facing the 21st century' (London, Anthem) and to several research projects currently being conducted by masters and doctoral students in QEH. The second objective is to reflect on the achievements and problems of those long term villages studies which are not based on panel data - at a time when village studies have been neglected and are being revived once more. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qeh:qehwps:qehwps146&r=cwa |
| By: | Demir, Firat |
| Abstract: | Using micro-level panel data, the paper analyses the impacts of short-term capital flow volatility on new fixed investment spending of publicly traded real sector firms in three major emerging markets that are Argentina, Mexico and Turkey. The empirical results including comprehensive sensitivity tests suggest that increasing volatility of capital inflows has an economically and statistically significant negative effect on new investment spending of private firms. Accordingly, a 10 per cent increase in capital flow volatility reduces fixed investment spending in the range of 1-1.7, 2.3-15.1, and 1 per cent in Argentina, Mexico and Turkey respectively. |
| Keywords: | Capital Flow Volatility; Macroeconomic Uncertainty; Private Investment; Financial Liberalisation |
| JEL: | C33 O57 O16 F43 F32 |
| Date: | 2006–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:3080&r=cwa |
| By: | Jyotsna Jalan (Centre for Studies in Social Sciences, Calcutta); E.Somanathan (Planning Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi); Saraswata Chaudhuri (University of Washington) |
| Abstract: | The demand for environmental quality is often presumed to be low in developing countries due to poverty. Less attention has been paid to the possibility that lack of awareness about the adverse health effects of environmental pollution could also keep the demand low. We use a household survey from urban India to estimate the effects of awareness proxies such as schooling and exposure to mass media controlling for wealth on home water purification. Average costs of different home purification methods are used to get estimates on willingness to pay for better drinking water quality. We find that our awareness proxy measures have statistically significant effects on adoption of different home purification methods and therefore, on willingness to pay. These effects are similar in magnitude to the wealth effects. |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udb:wpaper:uwec-2007-09&r=cwa |
| By: | Andrés Rodríguez-Pose (London School of Economics); Sylvia A. R. Tijmstra (London School of Economics); Adala Bwire (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Much of the recent worldwide trend towards devolution has been driven by the belief that fiscal decentralization is likely to have a positive effect on government efficiency and economic growth. It is generally assumed that the transfer of powers and resources to lower tiers of government allows for a better matching of public policies to local needs and thus for a better allocation of resources. These factors, in turn, are expected to lead to an improvement in regional economic performance, if subnational authorities shift resources from current to capital expenditures in search of a better response to local needs. This paper tests these assumptions empirically by analysing the evolution of subnational expenditure categories and regional growth in Germany, India, Mexico, Spain, and the USA. We find that, contrary to expectations, decentralisation has coincided in the sample countries with a relative increase in current expenditures at the expense of capital expenditures, which has been associated with lower levels of economic growth in countries where devolution has been driven from above (India and Mexico), but not in those where it has been driven from below (Spain). The paper hypothesises that the differences in legitimacy between the central or federal government and subnational governments in top-down and bottom-up processes of devolution may be at the origin of the diverse capacity to deliver greater allocative and productive efficiency and, eventually, greater economic growth by devolved governments. |
| Keywords: | devolution; fiscal decentralisation; subnational expenditure; economic growth; Germany; India; Mexico; Spain; United States |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imd:wpaper:wp2007-11&r=cwa |
| By: | Demir, Firat |
| Abstract: | Based on the Euler equation approach, the paper analyzes the impacts of availability of internal funds on fixed investment spending in the presence of multiple investment options. It is argued that after financial liberalization real sector firms face a portfolio allocation problem between fixed and financial investments. Therefore, depending on the respective rates of returns the availability of internal funds may be a necessary but not sufficient condition for financing real investment projects. The empirical results using firm level data for Mexico and Turkey confirm this hypothesis and suggest that profits from fixed and financial assets have differential effects on fixed investment spending. |
| Keywords: | Private Investment; Financing Constraints; Cash Flow; Portfolio Choice |
| JEL: | G11 E22 C33 E44 O16 |
| Date: | 2007–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:3081&r=cwa |
| By: | Raghuram G.; Shukla Niraja |
| Abstract: | Axle loading had contributed significantly to the ‘turnaround’ of the Indian Railways (IR) in the two years 2004-06. As the Minister of Railways (MR) stated, “A one ton extra loading per wagon implied additional revenue of Rs 500 crore per annum for IR.” The axle loading initiative was a significant step by IR, though sustainability was a concern. This paper focuses on the key driving events, process issues, impact and implications, and sustainability of the initiative of taking the load per wagon from its carrying capacity (CC) to CC+8. Axle loading for a wagon had traditionally been 20.32 tons, except for the mainline versions of steam locomotives. In the early 1980s, the then Chairman of the Railway Board took initiative of increasing axle loading on an experimental basis which after his tenure, could not be sustained on the grounds of safety. In the late 90s, there were initiatives of regularizing the two ton slack normally permitted for excess loading for certain commodities which were usually on a short haul. The railway minister, during inspections in 2004, noticed significant overloading of many wagons in the iron ore and coal routes. This set him thinking on the axle loading initiative. When one of the Zonal Railways (ZR) proposed an increase of up to ten tons per four axled wagon, various directorates in the Railway Board (RB) gave their views, many of which opposed the initiative. The minister, through the RB, directed a variety of processes to bring about inter-departmental alignment, and the initiative was taken forward in a step by step manner over the two years over a large part of IR. The safety and research institutions of IR also had to be taken along. The initiative is still treated as an ‘experiment,’ with many issues that need resolution and strategizing. |
| Date: | 2007–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2007-05-03&r=cwa |
| By: | Djoni Hartono (Department of Economics, University of Indonesia); D.S. Priyarsono (Bogor Agriculture University); Tien Dung Nguyen (Ministry of Trade, Vietnam); Mitsuo Ezaki (Nagoya University) |
| Abstract: | Indonesia is facing the trade liberalization and regional economic integration with several free trade areas, i.e. bilateral FTA, regional FTA and multilateral FTA. The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of those international relationships on Indonesian economic growth, poverty and income distribution. By using a Global Computable General Equilibrium (GCGE) model, we made eighteen simulations to analyze the current and the potential international relationship that is faced by Indonesia. Generally, Indonesia gains significant benefit in terms of real GDP, output and welfare except FTA with India. FTA also increases the household income of rural group higher than the urban group ones. Unskilled labor experiences more advantages than skilled labor and poor household gain more benefit than the rich household both in rural and urban areas. Those conditions imply that FTA potentially could be a solution for national poverty reduction. |
| Keywords: | Economic integration, Indonesia |
| JEL: | F15 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unp:wpaper:200703&r=cwa |