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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Tonus, özgür |
| Abstract: | Increasing demand for oil and gas in the enlarging EU will mostly be satisfied by outside resources, due to Union’s limited oil and gas production capability. Turkey’s geographical location offers variety of opportunities in terms of oil and gas transportation from the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf regions to the EU. As well as connecting the EU to the Middle East, Turkey also plays an important role in the Mediterranean. From the EU’s perspective, abovementioned reasons add further importance to Turkey. Being in the process of starting to accession negotiations with the Union, the key point for Turkey is to utilize her position related to energy policies of the Union in order to support the membership process. |
| Keywords: | Energy; government energy policy; Turkey |
| JEL: | Q41 Q4 Q48 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:1855&r=cwa |
| By: | Pau, L-F.; Motiwalla, J. (Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), RSM Erasmus University) |
| Abstract: | Wireless penetration and the Indian economy have grown significantly over the past few years, but how robust and sustainable is the adoption of wireless services and products? Several papers have discussed India as a wireless service and product market, and sometimes tried to assess quantitative attributes thereof. The present paper aims instead at looking, from a management point of view, at the unique underlying evolution processes, bottlenecks and risks. On specific facets, a comparison is given to adoption indicators in other key markets such as China. For example, just to illustrate highlights of these unique attributes , it is indeed surprising that such a major economy with its very large population has not yet achieved the wireless service usage and mobile terminal penetration ratios of neither an early European adopter ,nor of a recent large scale adopter like China or Russia . India has also been characterised by a surprising regulatory development process quite different from many other contexts, both in terms of its both centralised and regional structure, of very low tariffs providing almost no ROI to investors in a stable situation, and of absence of neutrality across communications technologies. At the same time, a very large fraction of the population has not , for affordability and regional coverage reasons, been able to get the access opportunities of more developed regions , leading to a distribution unbalance which is also a significant opportunity .Also , the wireless service and product adoption pattern in India , specific to communicating services , has so far been in rather sharp contrast with the widely known software and outsourcing services industry evolutions in that country . Therefore it is important to compare the most relevant known wireless service and product adoption theories, to establish from facts whether they apply in the Indian context, and, if not, suggest new or mixed theories able to explain all such facts and cast some light into its likely future structural evolution. It is of high relevance in management to validate if indeed established models apply or not in a significant case like India, just as it is also of high relevance for the main stakeholders to identify methodology able to support their analyses. The paper first provides background information on wireless, fixed, and other operators, on wireless penetration, on telecommunications infrastructure and investments, and on Indian human capital. Thereafter is analyzed in detail the relevance, or not, of five traditional technology adoption models across the Indian user base: the absorption business model, the perceived benefits business model, consumer attitudes, the globalisation business model, and finally the brand management business model. These first analyses are followed by the identification and detailed analysis of five other business models or structural processes, some rather unique to India: the two-tier migration model, large scale imported adoption without a telecommunications infrastructure & terminals industry, unstable adoption with lack of consistent public policies, knowledge sharing and productivity enhancement adoption model, and finally late foreign capital investments into a large emerging market. From the comparison of facts and background data , with these ten wireless service and product adoption models , the paper establishes which are not relevant, and which are too some degree . Furthermore the relevant business models are shown to share, further attributes of sustainability (or not) and dynamic behaviour. This allows concluding that India has had an overall quite fragile adoption and deployment path with growing tensions such as coverage, quality of service and affordability disparities. The model comparison also allows to diagnose the key three structural measures needed to reach a sustainable equilibrium from the business, economic and social points of view. |
| Keywords: | India;Mobile communications;Manufacturing;Economic development;Business models;Adoption;Wireless;Infrastructure;Mobile terminals;; |
| Date: | 2007–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:eureri:30009939&r=cwa |
| By: | Barry Bosworth; Susan M. Collins |
| Abstract: | We compare the recent economic performances of China and India using a simple growth accounting framework that produces estimates of the contribution of labor, capital, education, and total factor productivity for the three sectors of agriculture, industry, and services as well as for the aggregate economy. Our analysis incorporates recent data revisions in both countries and includes extensive discussion of the underlying data series. The growth accounts show a roughly equal division in each country between the contributions of capital accumulation and TFP to growth in output per worker over the period 1978-2004, and an acceleration of growth when the period is divided at 1993. However, the magnitude of output growth in China is roughly double that of India at the aggregate level, and also higher in each of the three sectors in both sub-periods. In China the post-1993 acceleration was concentrated mostly in industry, which contributed nearly 60 percent of China’s aggregate productivity growth. In contrast, 45 percent of the growth in India in the second sub-period came in services. Reallocation of workers from agriculture to industry and services has contributed 1.2 percentage points to productivity growth in each country. |
| JEL: | F43 O1 O4 |
| Date: | 2007–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12943&r=cwa |
| By: | Agata V. D´Addato (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Daniele Vignoli (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Sutay Yavuz (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | The whole region of the South and East Mediterranean exhibits a profound fertility transition with marked differences in the pace of fertility declines among the countries. The authors choose three representative countries: Egypt, Morocco and Turkey. Determinants of the propensity towards smaller family size are investigated as scrutinizing the development in the pattern of third births, which represents the critical step in the transitional process for these countries. The authors are particularly interested in verifying whether the decline of higher-order births is significantly driven by an overall societal change over time or by compositional change over different socio-economic segments of the female population. Evidence is found that overall societal changes have mainly driven the decline in large family size, though, to a much lesser extent, compositional changes are important too. |
| Keywords: | Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, childbearing, family size, fertility decline |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-012&r=cwa |
| By: | Budina, Nina; van Wijnbergen, Sweder |
| Abstract: | Fiscal sustainability analysis (FSA) is an important component of macroeconomic analysis. The authors review various quantitative approaches to FSA with a major objective to bring these approaches together and to present a user-friendly tool for FSA that reflects modern developments. They combine a dynamic simulations approach with a simplified version of the steady-state consistency approach. They also incorporate two different methods to deal with uncertainty: user-defined stress tests and stochastic simulations. The tool goes further by evaluating the required fiscal adjustment as a consequence of the stochastic realizations of the exogenous variables. Furthermore, the fiscal sustainability tool incorporates an endogenous debt feedback rule for the primary surplus, a fiscal policy reaction function. Besides outlining the theoretical framework, the authors also present a case study for Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory & Research,External Debt,Economic Stabilization,Banks & Banking Reform,Public Sector Economics & Finance |
| Date: | 2007–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4169&r=cwa |
| By: | Takashi Kurosaki (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University); Yasuyuki Sawada (Faculty of Economis, University of Tokyo); Asit Banerji (Centre of Economic and Social Research, Delhi); S.N. Mishra (Centre of Economic and Social Research, Delhi) |
| Abstract: | In December 2005 and January 2006, we conducted a pilot survey to collect detailed information on eighty rickshaw pullers and twenty-six rickshaw owner-contractors in north-east Delhi. This is a preliminary report based on the data thus collected. |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2007cf485&r=cwa |
| By: | Alam, Tasneem; Waheed, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | The present paper takes a first step in investigating the monetary transmission mechanism in Pakistan at a sectoral level. Using quarterly data spanning from 1973:1 to 2003:4, we examine whether monetary policy shocks have different sectoral effects. Taking note of structural transformation of the economy and the monetary and financial reforms during 1990s, we also assess whether the reform process has notable impact on the monetary transmission mechanism. We find evidence supporting sector-specific variation in the real effects of monetary policy. Our results also suggest significant changes in the transmission of monetary shock to real sector of the economy during post-reform period. |
| Keywords: | Monetary transmission mechanism; VAR; Pakistan; Sectoral analysis |
| JEL: | C22 E52 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2263&r=cwa |
| By: | Husain, Fazal; Rashid, Abdul |
| Abstract: | This study extends the analysis of casuality by Husain and Rashid by taking care of the shift in the variables due to the price hikes in the early 1970s. We investigate the casual relations between real money and real income, between nominal money and nominal income, and between nominal money and prices using using the annual data set from 1959-60 to 2003-04, examining the stochastic properties of the variables used in the analysis and taking care of the expected shifts in the series through dummies. The analysis indicates significant shifts in the variables during the sample period. In this context, the shift of the early 1970s seems to be more important to be incorporated in the analysis. The study finds an active role of money in the Pakistani economy, as it is found to be the leading variable in changing prices without any feed back. In the case of income, the study finds the feed back mechanism of money, which is generally missing in the earlier studies probably because of not taking care of the shift in the macroeconomic variables in Pakistan in the early 1970s. |
| Keywords: | Money; Income; Prices; Price hikes; Casual relations; Pakistan |
| JEL: | E3 N4 E4 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2243&r=cwa |
| By: | Dorosh, Paul; Niazi, Muhammad Khan |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the structure and construction of a social accounting matrix (SAM) for Pakistan for 2001-02. A SAM is an internally consistent extended set of national accounts that disaggregates value-added in each production activity into payments to various factors (e.g., land, labour, capital), and disaggregates household incomes and expenditures according to various household types. Because this Pakistan SAM is designed for analysis of the links between growth and rural poverty, agricultural activities, agricultural factors of production, and rural household accounts are more disaggregated than are those for urban activities and households. Rural household groups in the SAM are split according to three regions (Punjab, Sindh, and Other Pakistan) to capture the large differences in the structure of agricultural production and incomes across Pakistan. On average, household incomes in the SAM are 2.1 times greater than household expenditures in the HIES Survey, reflecting the apparent substantial under-reporting of expenditures (particularly on services)and informal sector incomes in the HIES and other household surveys. Agricultural factor incomes as calculated in the SAM account for only 23 percent of total factor incomes in Pakistan, but 60 percent of total factor incomes for agricultural households. 91 percent of agricultural incomes derive from land, water, own-farm labour, or livestock; earnings of hired labour and (nonlivestock)agricultural capital account for only 9 percent of agricultural incomes. Incomes of large- and medium-farm rural households, calculated using land area cultivated, data from the Agricultural Census, and other data, are significantly higher than indicated in household surveys. |
| Keywords: | National accounts; Social accounting matrix |
| JEL: | E01 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2242&r=cwa |
| By: | Chiara SANSEVERINO |
| Abstract: | The paper gives a theoretical framework of microfinance and it analyzes Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs) as Microfinance Institutions (MFIs). Multipurpose NGOs in LDCs were the leading part in the so called ‘microfinance revolution’. Nevertheless a ri-definition of their role is needed, given some critical impacts of NGO programs in microfinance and given the rise of new and more specialized providers. The hypotesis is that the new role can be pursuit through the promotion of strategic partnerships in which the multipurpose NGO, as promoter, manage the component of non-financial services and other functions which differ from financial service delivering itself, such as groups capacity building and designing loan schemes guarantee. This kind of ‘linkage model’ can overwork NGO ability to stay at the grassroots and succeeds in both reducing asymmetric information phenomena and administrative costs for the Financial Institutions. By doing so it channels new clients’ demand to formal financial system supply. This intermediation action will be highlighted through the analysis of four interesting cases in very different LDCs: Zimbabwe, Bosnia, Bolivia and India. The paper aims at showing some experiences which can contribute to deepen knowledge and improve microfinance good practises among operators |
| Keywords: | MFIs, NGOs, financial markets, formal and informal sectors, international linkages to development |
| JEL: | G21 L31 N2 O17 O19 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2007-09&r=cwa |
| By: | Javed, Attiya Y.; Iqbal, Robina |
| Abstract: | We investigated whether differences in quality of firm-level corporate governance can explain the firm-level performance in a cross-section of companies listed at Karachi Stock Exchange. Therefore, we analysed the relationship between firm-level value as measured by Tobin’s Q and total Corporate Governance Index (CGI) and three sub-indices: Board, Shareholdings and Ownership, and Disclosures and Transparency for a sample of 50 firms. The results indicate that corporate governance does matter in Pakistan. However, not all elements of governance are important. The board composition and ownership and shareholdings enhance firm performance, whereas disclosure and transparency has no significant effect on firm performance. We point out that those adequate firm-level governance standards can not replace the solidity of the firm. The low production and bad management practices can not be covered with transparent disclosures and transparency standards. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Governance; Firm Performance; Tobin’s Q; Agency Problem; Board Size; Shareholdings; Disclosures; Leverage Code of Corporate Governance. |
| JEL: | G38 G34 G12 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2225&r=cwa |
| By: | Hyder, Asma |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the magnitude of public/private wage differentials in Pakistan using data drawn from the 2001-02 Labour Force Survey. Pakistan Labour Force Survey is a nationwide survey containing micro data from all over the country containing demographic and employment information. As in many other countries, public sector workers in Pakistan tend to have higher average pay and educational levels as compared to their private sector counterparts. First, this paper presents the inter-sectoral earning equations for the three main sectors of the economy, i.e., public, private, and state-owned enterprises. These results are further decomposed into “treatment” and “endowment effect”. To examine the role of human capital in wage gap, the rate of return to different levels of schooling is calculated. These rates of return to education may be important for policy formulation. The relative earning share is also worked out to look into the distribution of wages across the occupational categories. The earning equations are estimated with and without correction for selectivity, which is also the main objective of the study, i.e., to find out if any non-random selection is taking place within these three sectors of employment. |
| Keywords: | Wage Differentials; Rate of Return to Education; Public Sector; Labour Markets |
| JEL: | J45 J24 J32 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2224&r=cwa |
| By: | Narain, Urvashi (Resources for the Future); Krupnick, Alan J. (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact on Delhi’s air quality of a number of policy measures recently implemented in the city to curb air pollution using monthly time-series data from 1990 to 2005. The best known of these measures is the court-mandated conversion of all commercial passenger vehicles—buses, three-wheelers, and taxis—to compressed natural gas (CNG). Broadly, the results point to the success of a number of policies implemented in Delhi but also to a number of areas of growing concern. For example, the results suggest that the conversion of buses from diesel to CNG has helped to reduce PM10, CO, and SO2 concentrations in the city and has not, contrary to conventional wisdom, led to the recent increase in NO2. At the same time, however, the conversion of three-wheelers from petrol to CNG has not had the same benefit, possibly because of poor technology. Another policy measure that appears to have had a positive impact on air quality is the reduction in the sulfur content of diesel and petrol. This has led to a decrease in SO2 levels and, because of conversion of SO2 to sulfates (a fine particle), a decrease in PM10 concentrations. Some of these gains from fuel switching and fuel-quality improvements are, however, being negated by the increase in the proportion of diesel-fueled cars, which is leading to an increase in PM10 and NO2 levels, and by the sheer increase in the number of vehicles. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, compressed natural gas, low-sulfur diesel, diesel-fueled cars, Delhi |
| JEL: | Q53 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2007–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-07-06&r=cwa |
| By: | Kemal, M. Ali |
| Abstract: | Rise in the underground economy creates problems for the policy-makers to formulate economic policies, especially the monetary and fiscal policies. It is found that if there was no tax evasion, budgets balance might have been zero and positive for some years and we would not have needed to borrow as much as we had borrowed. It is concluded that the impact of the underground economy is significant to the movements of the formal economy, but the impact of formal economy is insignificant in explaining the movements in the underground economy. In the long run, underground economy and official economy are positively associated. It is estimated that the underground economy ranges between Rs 2.91 trillion and Rs 3.34 trillion (54.6 percent of GDP to 62.8 percent of GDP respectively) in 2005 and tax evasion ranges between Rs 302 billion and Rs 347 billion (5.7 percent of GDP to 6.5 percent of GDP respectively) in 2005. Underground economy and tax evasion were increasing very rapidly in the early 1980s but the rate of increase accelerated in the 1990s. It declined in 1999, but reverted to an increasing trend until 2003. It declined again in 2004 and 2005. |
| Keywords: | Underground Economy; Tax Evasion |
| JEL: | H26 E26 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2226&r=cwa |
| By: | Haque, Nadeem ul Haque |
| Abstract: | Policy in Pakistan has been fairly path-dependant, placing a higher weight on export promotion and domestic industrialisation development than on domestic commerce. Yet domestic commerce is growing rapidly, and quite possibly is the largest sector in the economy. This paper argues that a more holistic policy, with no favourites, that allows for all sectors to grow leads to better long-term economic results. A vibrant domestic commerce sector is the core of the economy facilitating intermediation between supply and demand, entrepreneurial development, risk-taking, innovation, and competitive markets. Such an economy moves beyond commodity exports to brand name, process, and capital exports, all of which command a higher rate of return. Pakistan could therefore achieve a higher and a more sustainable growth rate by adopting a more balanced growth strategy. |
| Keywords: | Commercial policy |
| JEL: | G0 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2141&r=cwa |
| By: | Obayelu, Abiodun, Elijah; Uffort, Larry |
| Abstract: | Abstract This study was undertaken with the goal of analyzing the relationship between poverty rates and size of underground economy in the developed and developing countries and exploring whether there is a link between them. There are technical problems in linking them in that getting information from those who have undertaken underground activities are difficult. Secondary data were used to established hypothetical relationship and primary data for the empirical analysis. The results of the descriptive analysis revealed that underground economy and poverty have no geographical boundary. Although the incidence, and the size differs from one country to another. The incidences of poverty and shadow economy are larger in the poor (developing and transition) countries when compared with the highly developed countries. There is also a causal link between poverty and underground economy especially in the developing and transition countries with common factors such as high unemployment and corruption rates affecting both poverty and underground economy. High social security system and tax burden were found to account for the high rates of underground economies in the highly developed countries even with people’s awareness of its implications when caught. In developing countries like Nigeria, most people embark on unlicensed (and hence illegal) micro-enterprises / activities like production and sale of pure water, yoghurts, cutting down of economic trees, illegal running of private schools, drug trafficking, prostitution, black-market currency exchange, fake disclosure of actual business profit, in order to increase their levels of income by tax evasion or avoidance in the name of surviving. Government can reduce this menace to certain extent by engaging itself in sustainable poverty reduction activities, tax policy changes, embarking anti-corruption campaign and increase in job opportunities within the formal economy. Key words: Poverty, underground economy, developed, transition and developing countries |
| Keywords: | Poverty; underground economy; developed; transition and developing countries |
| JEL: | P51 P52 |
| Date: | 2007–03–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2054&r=cwa |
| By: | Dorosh, Paul; Salam, Abdul |
| Abstract: | This article provides a quantitative analysis of the effects of Pakistan government domestic wheat procurement, sales, and trade policies on wheat supply, demand, prices, and overall inflation. Analysis of price multipliers indicates that increases in wheat procurement prices (one means of promoting domestic procurement) have relatively small effects on overall price levels. Partial equilibrium analysis of wheat markets suggests that fluctuations in production, rather than market manipulation, are plausible explanations for price increases in recent years. Comparisons of domestic and international prices suggest that promoting private sector imports is one alternative for increasing supply and stabilising market prices, particularly in years of production shortfalls. Overall, this paper concludes that market forces play a dominant role in price determination in Pakistan, and that policies that promote the private sector wheat trade can both increase price stability and reduce fiscal costs. |
| Keywords: | Wheat; Agricultural prices; Pakistan |
| JEL: | Q11 Q13 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2244&r=cwa |