nep-cwa New Economics Papers
on Central and Western Asia
Issue of 2006‒12‒16
five papers chosen by
Nurdilek Hacialioglu
Open University
  1. The Effect of Economic Reforms of 1980s and of the Customs Union 1996 upon the Turkish Intra-Industry Trade By Sule Akkoyunlu; Konstantin A. Kholodilin; Boriss Siliverstovs
  2. The Long Term Growth Prospects of the World Economy: Horizon 2050 By Sandra Poncet
  3. Import Prices, Variety and the Extensive Margin of Trade By Guillaume Gaulier; Isabelle Mejean
  4. Can Endogenously Chosen Institutions Mitigate the Free-Rider Problem and Reduce Perverse Punishment? By Arhan Ertan; Talbot Page; Louis Putterman
  5. The Highest Fertility in Europe - for how long? The analysis of fertility change in Albania based on Individual Data By Arnstein Aassve; Arjan Gjonca; Letizia Mencarini
  1. By: Sule Akkoyunlu; Konstantin A. Kholodilin; Boriss Siliverstovs
    Abstract: In this paper we analyze the impact of the economic reforms implemented in 1980s and of the Custom Union Agreement of 1996 on the intra-industry trade in Turkey. Using the panel data for 15 trading partners of Turkey and the sample period 1970-2005, we record the positive impact of both reforms with the former reforms exercising stronger influence on the intra-industry trade measured either by the Grubel-Lloyd or the Brülhart's indices. We also control for other factors like economic size, difference in income per capita and in economic size between Turkey and its trading partners in our empirical regressions.
    Keywords: Intra-industry trade; Customs Union Agreement; panel data estimation.
    JEL: C23 F14
    Date: 2006
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp649&r=cwa
  2. By: Sandra Poncet
    Abstract: This study develops long-term forecasts for world economic growth, based on a production function according to which an economy can grow by (1) deploying more inputs (labor and capital inputs) to production and/or by (2) becoming more efficient, i.e. producing more output per unit of input. An econometric analysis of past performance is carried out to describe the process by which physical capital accumulates over time and to estimate the parameters of a catch-up model of technology diffusion. We moreover account for the modification of real exchange rates against the US dollar. The results suggest that today’s advanced economies are to become a shrinking part of the world economy: in less than 50 years, China and India together could match the size of the US in current dollars (26.6 against 26.9% of the world GDP in 2050). China and India will stand out as an engine of new demand growth and spending, their GDP will grow at yearly average rate of 4.6 and 4.5%, respectively between 2005 and 2050. The largest economies in the world (by GDP) may no longer be the richest (in terms of income per capita).
    Keywords: Growth projections; emerging countries; human capital; technology diffusion; convergence
    JEL: O10 O40
    Date: 2006–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-16&r=cwa
  3. By: Guillaume Gaulier; Isabelle Mejean
    Abstract: This paper studies the aggregate price effect of newly imported varieties and compares it in a sample of countries. The method allows to quantify the measurement bias in import price indices that take as given the basket of imported varieties and neglect the aggregate effect of increased diversity. Applying it to the BACI database describing bilateral trade flows at the world level, we are able to compare the aggregate price impact of the extensive margin of trade among 28 countries. Our results suggest that, in the 1994-2003 period, neglecting newly imported varieties leads to overestimate in the import price level by 0.2% a year, on average. The magnitude of this effect however strongly varies across countries, this overestimation being especially strong in some emerging countries like India, Indonesia or Brazil.
    Keywords: Extensive margin; import price indices; real exchange rate determinants; panel data; BACI
    JEL: F10 F12 F41
    Date: 2006–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-17&r=cwa
  4. By: Arhan Ertan; Talbot Page; Louis Putterman
    Date: 2005
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bro:econwp:2005-13&r=cwa
  5. By: Arnstein Aassve (Institute for Social and Economic Research); Arjan Gjonca (London School of Economics); Letizia Mencarini (Department of Statistics, University of Florence)
    Abstract: Despite remarkable fertility reductions during the period 1950-1990 (Falkingham and Gjonça, 2001), Albania still has the highest level of fertility in Europe today with a TFR of 2.2 children per women. This paper, which for the first time uses individual longitudinal data, aims to first, investigate Albanian’s ‘success’ in bringing fertility down at the level of replacement, and to also analyse the reasons behind the reduction of fertility during the 1990s. It also discusses the possible developments of Albania’s fertility in the coming years. Using information from the World Bank Living Standard Measurement Survey conducted in 2002, we provide both non-paramteric and parametric analysis of recent fertility changes.
    Keywords: Albania, births, fertility
    Date: 2006–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2006-56&r=cwa
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