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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Anne-Marie Brook |
| Abstract: | Since the crisis of 2001, an impressive package of fiscal consolidation and institutional reform has created a strong foundation for economic growth. As a result, GDP growth has been strong and stable, inflation has fallen, and the public debt burden has been significantly reduced. Yet the current account deficit is large, exchange rate movements have been volatile, and the recent increase in inflation and rising levels of private sector external debt draw attention to Turkey?s vulnerabilities and to the need for additional policies to contain risks. This paper summarises the vulnerabilities of the Turkish economy and the steps that can be taken to improve macroeconomic resilience to shocks. This Working Paper relates to the 2006 Economic Survey of Turkey (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/turkey). <P>Les politiques pour renforcer la résilience de la Turquie aux chocs émanant des marchés financiers <BR>Depuis la crise de 2001, un remarquable programme d'assainissement économique et de réforme institutionnelle a créé de robustes fondations pour la croissance économique. En conséquence, l'expansion du PIB a été forte et stable, l'inflation a décru et le fardeau de la dette publique a été nettement allégé. Cependant, le déficit de la balance courante est élevé, les fluctuations du taux de change sont irrégulières et l'accélération récente de l'inflation comme la montée de l'endettement attirent l'attention sur les points vulnérables de la Turquie et sur la nécessité de prendre de nouvelles initiatives pour contenir les risques. Ce document recense les points vulnérables de l'économie turque et présente les mesures susceptibles d'améliorer la résilience macroéconomique aux chocs. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de la Turquie 2006 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/turquie) |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, politique fiscale, monetary policy, politique monétaire, shocks, resilience, Turkey, debt sustainability, échanges sud-sud |
| JEL: | E52 E60 F40 H60 |
| Date: | 2006–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:528-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Anne-Marie Brook; Edward Whitehouse |
| Abstract: | Recent social security reform has significantly improved the long-run sustainability of the pension system. However, the pension system continues to serve as an important barrier to a more rapid expansion of the formalsector economy in two ways. First, early-retirement incentives (including severance payments) continue to push many incumbent formal sector workers into the informal sector, often at ages as young as 40-45. While new labour force entrants face a much higher retirement age, policies for incumbents are fiscally expensive, inequitable, and serve to swell the ranks of the informal sector. Second, even when the transition to the new pension rules is complete, net replacement rates will remain very high by OECD standards, requiring high social security contribution rates that make it too expensive for firms to employ low-skilled labour in the formal sector. Thus, further pension reform is one of the keys to overcoming Turkey's economic duality. Finally, since the pension system does not cover the informal sector, it does little to alleviate poverty among the wider population of older people. This paper discusses a number of reforms that would increase the retirement age, reduce inter-generational inequities, and permit a significant cut in the tax wedge on labour, while better addressing old-age poverty concerns at all levels of income. This Working Paper relates to the 2006 Economic Survey of Turkey (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/turkey). <P>Le système des retraites en Turquie : Les réformes supplémentaires pour aider à résoudre le problème de l'informalité <BR>La récente réforme de la sécurité sociale a amélioré largement la viabilité à long terme du système de retraite. Cependant, la structure de ce dernier reste un important obstacle à une expansion plus rapide de l'économie formelle, pour deux raisons. Premièrement, du fait des incitations à une retraite anticipée (telles que les indemnités de départ), de nombreux travailleurs du secteur formel continuent à rejoindre le secteur informel, souvent à un jeune âge comme 40-45 ans. Alors que les nouveaux entrants dans le marché du travail prendront leur retraite à un âge bien plus élevé, les politiques concernant les travailleurs déjà actifs sont coûteuses pour les finances publiques, ne sont pas équitables et nourrissent le secteur informel. Deuxièmement, même lorsque le passage aux nouvelles règles régissant les retraites sera achevé, les taux de remplacement nets seront encore très généreux par rapport aux niveaux observés dans la zone OCDE, avec des taux de cotisation élevés qui dissuadent les entreprises du secteur formel d'employer une main-d'oeuvre peu qualifiée. En conséquence, la poursuite de la réforme des retraites est fondamentale pour surmonter ce dualisme économique. Enfin, parce qu'il ne couvre pas le secteur informel, le système de retraite ne contribue guère à atténuer la pauvreté au sein de la population âgée. Ce chapitre examine plusieurs réformes qui repousseraient l'âge de la retraite, réduiraient les inégalités intergénérationnelles et feraient diminuer significativement le coin fiscal sur le travail, tout en répondant mieux aux préoccupations suscitées par la pauvreté des personnes âgées à tous les niveaux de revenu. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de la Turquie 2006 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/turquie). |
| Keywords: | pensions, système de retraite, Turkey, Turquie, early retirement, retraite anticipée |
| JEL: | D10 H55 J14 J18 |
| Date: | 2006–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:529-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Garg Ankur; Tiwari Apoorva; Dutta Goutam; Basu Sankarshan |
| Abstract: | Asset - Liability management is one of the most critical tasks for any financial institution for determining its cushion against the risk and the net returns. The problem of asset liability management for an insurance company requires matching the cash inflows from premium collections and investment income with the cash outflows due to casualty and maturity claims. Thus, what is required is a prudent investment strategy such that the returns earned on the assets match the liability claims at all points of time in future. Conventionally, the asset allocation has been done using the Mean Variance approach due to Markowitz (1952, 1959). While such a strategy ensures that the asset value always match or are greater than the liability for the next year, it does not maximise the net worth of the firm nor does it take care of all the cash inflows and outflows over a long term period. A stochastic linear programming model (on the lines of Pirbhai, 2004) maximises the net worth of the firm and also takes care of the uncertainties. While there are instances of stochastic linear programming being applied for ALM in financial institutions in developed markets, no such practical application has been reported in this area in Indian context as yet. In this paper, we describe the development of a multi stage stochastic linear programming model for insurance companies. The multi-stage stochastic linear programming model was developed on the modelling language AMPL (Fourer, 2002). |
| Date: | 2006–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2006-10-08&r=cwa |
| By: | Randall Akee (IZA Bonn and Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | The Coase theorem emphasizes the role transactions costs play in efficient market outcomes. We document inefficient outcomes, in the presence of a transactions cost, in southern California land markets and the corresponding transition to efficient outcomes after the transactions cost is eliminated. In the late 1800s, Palm Springs, CA was evenly divided, in a checkerboard fashion, and property rights assigned in alternating blocks to the Agua Caliente tribe and a non-Indian landowner by the US Federal government. Sales and leasing restrictions on the Agua Caliente land created a large transactions cost to development on those lands; consequently, we observe very little housing investment. Non-Indian lands provide a benchmark for efficient outcomes for the Agua Caliente lands. Once the transactions cost for Agua Caliente lands was removed, there is a convergence between American Indian-owned and non Indian-owned lands in both the number of homes constructed and the value of those homes. |
| Keywords: | land markets, coase theorem, economic development |
| JEL: | R14 O12 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2438&r=cwa |
| By: | Melinda Robson |
| Abstract: | This paper finds that Russia’s traditional forms of influence on growth in the case-study countries have generally declined during transition (with the notable exception of Tajikistan). Countries that have integrated into the global economy and undertaken robust domestic policy and structural reforms have overcome inherited economic distortions and reduced their ties with the CIS and Russia to a greater degree. However, new forms of economic linkage with Russia are emerging, most of which could have a significant impact on the key determinants of growth. |
| Keywords: | Russia, Commonwealth of Independent States, CIS, transition, economic growth, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine |
| Date: | 2006–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:odi:wpaper:16&r=cwa |