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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | MEROLA ROSSANA |
| Abstract: | Over the past two decades Turkey has has been plagued by high inflation and persistent fiscal imbalances that have prevented the economy from reaching its potential growth levels. Facing a large fiscal deficit Turkish government has relied on a mix of borrowing and money creation, rather than making structural economic changes. The aim of this paper is twofold: first, we analyse the factors that led the Turkish economy to its currency crises in 1994 and 2001. Second, we test if the financial mechanism is such that the deficit has not entailed ever-increasing shares of debt and money to income, that is if public position is sustainable or not. To analyze sustainability of fiscal policy, we test the precence of a cointegration relationship between primary surplus and debt or alternatively between public revenues (including seigniorage) and expenditures. |
| Date: | 2006–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceiswp:231&r=cwa |
| By: | Nazif Catik; Mehmet Guclu (Department of Economics, Ege University) |
| Abstract: | (This paper is in Turkish) In this study we analyze the regional development process in Turkey by using the two traditional regional empirical growth models, Neoclassical convergence equations and Post-Keynesian Verdoorn’s Law, for the period from 1990 to 2000 at the NUTS 3 level under the spatial effects. Evidence obtained from the convergence equations with non-spatial effects rejects the validity of both absolute and conditional convergence hypotheses, while spatial econometric models taking into account the interaction between the regions in the growth process reveal existence of a weak convergence between the regions of Turkey. The results indicate that regional development disparities and location significantly affect the growth process of the regions in Turkey. Verdoorn’s Law indicates that there is a strong positive relation between manufacturing productivity growth and output growth and hence, manufacturing industries are also subject to increasing returns to scale. However, spatial econometric models of Verdoorn equations show that there is no significant spillover effect to accelerate productivity growth in the regions. According to the results obtained from both specifications, interaction between the regions is very weak and limited. Therefore we argue that it is inevitable to review regional policies in Turkey to reduce regional development disparities. |
| Keywords: | Spatial Econometrics, Regional Growth, Convergence, Verdoorn’s Law, Spillover Effects, Mekansal Ekonometri, Bölgesel Büyüme, Verdoorn Kanunu, Yayýlma Etkileri |
| JEL: | C51 R11 R15 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ege:wpaper:0607&r=cwa |
| By: | Uttam Kumar Deb; Narayan Chandra Das |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the developments in WTO negotiation on agriculture in the light of the Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration. It has critically analysed the decisions and negotiating proposals adopted through the Declaration. The paper has also analysed possible impacts of the adopted decisions and proposals for Bangladesh’s agriculture sector and its economy. Potential impacts are measured in terms of reduction in tariff, domestic support and export subsidy. More importantly, the paper has quantified potential impacts of agricultural trade liberalisation under Doha Round negotiations on prices and welfare gains, production, consumption and trade of agricultural commodities in Bangladesh. Based on the research findings, the paper has suggested some negotiating strategies for Bangladesh to be pursued in the on-going WTO negotiations on agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, WTO, Hong Kong Ministerial, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2006–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:opaper:60&r=cwa |
| By: | Thomas Flavin; Ekaterini Panopoulou |
| Abstract: | We test for shift contagion between pairs of East Asian equity markets over a sample including the financial crisis of the 1990’s. Employing the methodology of Gravelle et al. (2006), we find little evidence of change in the mechanism by which common shocks are transmitted between countries. Furthermore, we analyze the effects of idiosyncratic shocks and generate time-varying conditional correlations. While there clearly is significant time variation in the pair wise correlations, this is not more pronounced during the Asian crisis than it had been historically. |
| Keywords: | Shift contagion; Financial market crises; Regime switching; Structural transmission; Emerging markets |
| Date: | 2006–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp176&r=cwa |
| By: | Canova, Luciano |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at assessing poverty in Albania through the use of an asset index whose effectiveness is compared with consumption in explaining differences in results of health and educational outcomes. Firstly, an asset index is constructed by the use of factor analysis and principal component techniques; then, two probit models are estimated assessing enrolment rate for secondary education and chronic disability in Albania using the asset index as an independent variable to compare its effectiveness with expenditures. The World Bank LSMS Survey of 2002 is used in the analysis. |
| Keywords: | asset index; wealth; multidimensional poverty |
| JEL: | O12 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:922&r=cwa |