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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Bhattacharyya Ranajoy; Banerjee Tathagata |
| Abstract: | In this paper we apply the gravity model to the panel consisting of India’s yearly bilateral trade data with all its trading partners in the second half of the twentieth century. The main conclusions that emerge from our analyses are: (1) The core gravity model can explain around 43 per cent of the fluctuations in India’s direction of trade in the second half of the twentieth century (2) India’s trade responds less than proportionally to size and more than proportionally to distance (3) Colonial heritage is still an important factor in determining India’s direction of trade at least in the second half of the twentieth century (4) India trades more with developed rather than underdeveloped countries, however (5) size has more determining influence on India’s trade than the level of development of the trading partner. |
| Date: | 2006–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2006-09-01&r=cwa |
| By: | Pami Dua (Delhi School of Economics); Anirvan Banerji (Director of Research, Economic Cycle Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes business and growth rate cycles with special reference to the Indian economy. It uses the classical NBER approach to determine the timing of recessions and expansions in the Indian economy, as well as the chronology of growth rate cycles, viz., the timing of speedups and slowdowns in economic growth. The reference chronology for business as well as growth rate cycles is determined on the basis of the consensus of key coincident indicators of the Indian economy, along with a composite coincident index comprised of those indicators, which tracks fluctuations in current economic activity. Finally, it describes the performance of the leading index – a composite index of leading economic indicators, designed to anticipate business cycle and growth rate cycle upturns and downturns. |
| Keywords: | business cycles; growth rate cycles; coincident index; leading index, Indian economy |
| JEL: | E32 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:146&r=cwa |
| By: | Aditya Bhattacharjea (Delhi School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a critique of recent empirical studies on the impact of labour regulation on industrial performance in India. It begins with a review of earlier studies that tried to infer the effects on manufacturing employment of amendments to the Industrial Disputes Act (IDA) in 1976 and 1982 that required government permission for layoffs, retrenchments and closures, and shows that the results are ambiguous. It then criticizes the widely-used index of state-level labour regulation devised by Besley and Burgess (2004), and the econometric methodology they use to establish that excessively pro-worker regulation led to poor performance in Indian manufacturing. Several recent studies that have used their index are also surveyed. Finally, the paper reviews other evidence, pointing in a very different direction, on the actual enforcement of labour laws, labour flexibility, and industrial employment. Throughout, attention is paid to the crucial role of judicial interpretation of the IDA, which has been neglected in this literature. |
| Keywords: | India, industrial relations, employment protection laws, job security regulations, labor flexibility. |
| JEL: | J53 J68 O53 |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:141&r=cwa |
| By: | Pami Dua (Delhi School of Economics); Partha Sen (Delhi School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between the real exchange rate, level of capital flows, volatility of the flows, fiscal and monetary policy indicators and the current account surplus for the Indian economy for the period 1993Q2 to 2004Q1. The estimations indicate that the variables are cointegrated and each granger causes the real exchange rate. The generalized variance decompositions show that determinants of the real exchange rate, in descending order of importance include net capital inflows and their volatility (jointly), government expenditure, current account surplus and the money supply. A preliminary analysis suggests that a similar analysis can be performed for the foreign exchange reserves held by the RBI. |
| Keywords: | real exchange rate, capital flows, foreign exchange reserves, cointegration, |
| JEL: | C32 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:144&r=cwa |
| By: | K. SUNDARAM (Delhi School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of policy of reservation of seats in Higher Education for the Other Backward Castes in India, this paper examines two inter-related yet distinct issues: (i) the use of economic criteria for assessing the backwardness of different social groups and (ii) assessment of fairness of access to higher education of an identified “backward” social group. On an analysis of the NSS 55th Round Surveys for 1999-2000 we show that on a range of economic criteria there is a clear hierarchy across (essentially) caste-based social groups with the Scheduled Castes (in Urban India) and the Scheduled Tribes (in Rural India) at the bottom, the Other Backward Castes (OBCs) in the middle and the non-SC/ST Others at the top. However, for the poor among them, there is more of a continuum across caste-groups with surprisingly small differences between the OBCs and the non-SC/ST Others. On the issue of fair access to higher education, it is argued that the extent of under-(or over-) representation of a social group can only be judged by a comparison of a social group’s share in enrollments in a given level of education with its share in the population eligible for entry into that level of education. And it is shown that for the OBCs as a group, and especially for over 70 percent of them who are above the poverty line, the extent of under-representation of the OBCs in enrollments at the under-graduate and post-graduate levels is less than 5 percent. We conclude, therefore, that a 27 percent quota for the OBCs, which would effectively raise their share in enrollments to over 50 percent when their share in the eligible population is 30 percent or less, is totally unjustified. |
| Keywords: | India, Social Groups, Backwardness, Poverty, Caste-based Reservations, Fair Access to Higher Education. |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:151&r=cwa |
| By: | Égert, Balázs (Oesterreichische Nationalbank) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the equilibrium exchange rates of three Southeastern European countries (Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania), of two CIS economies (Russia and Ukraine) and of Turkey. A systematic approach in terms of different time horizons at which the equilibrium exchange rate is assessed is conducted, combined with a careful analysis of country-specific factors. For Russia, a first look is taken at the Dutch Disease phenomenon as a possible driving force behind equilibrium exchange rates. A unified framework including productivity and net foreign assets completed with a set control variables such as openness, public debt and public expenditures is used to compute total real misalignment bands. |
| Keywords: | Balassa-Samuelson; Dutch Disease; Bulgaria; Croatia; Romania; Russia; Ukraine; Turkey |
| JEL: | E31 O11 P17 |
| Date: | 2005–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2005_003&r=cwa |
| By: | Bown, Chad P. |
| Abstract: | Since the 1995 inception of the World Trade Organization (WTO), developing countries have become some of the most frequent users of the WTO-sanctioned antidumping trade policy instrument. This paper exploits newly available data to examine the pattern of actual industrial use of antidumping in nine of the major " new user " developing countries - Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Peru, Turkey and Venezuela. For these countries we are able to match data from two newly available sources: data on production in 28 different 3-digit ISIC industries from the Trade, Production and Protection Database to data on antidumping investigations, outcomes and imports at the 6-digit Harmonized System (HS) product level from the Global Antidumping Database. Our econometric analysis is to estimate a two-stage model of the industry-level decision to pursue an antidumping investigation and the national government ' s decision of whether and how much antidumping import protection to provide. First, we find evidence consistent with the theory of endogenous trade policy: larger industries that face substantial import competition are more likely to pursue an antidumping investigation, and larger and more concentrated industries receive greater antidumping protection from imports. Second, we find that industries that use antidumping are more likely to face the changing economic conditions specified by the technical evidentiary criteria of the WTO Antidumping Agreement: industries that face rapidly falling import prices are more likely to pursue an investigation, and industries that are more susceptible to cyclical dumping due to greater capital investment expenditures and that face rapidly increasing competition from imports receive greater antidumping protection. |
| Keywords: | Free Trade,Water and Industry,Economic Theory & Research,Globalization and Financial Integration,Trade Law |
| Date: | 2006–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4014&r=cwa |