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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Rajnish Mehra |
| Abstract: | In this article we examine the Equity Premium in the Indian context and review the related literature. The equity premium is the returned earned by a well-diversified stock portfolio in excess of that earned by a risk free security such as a Treasury Bill. Consistent with U.S. experience we find that the Indian equity premium has been quite high in the post 1991 period, averaging 9.7% above the corresponding risk free security. It is difficult to justify such a premium based on theoretical considerations. The article is an entry prepared for the Oxford Companion to Economics in India edited by Kaushik Basu |
| JEL: | E21 G1 G12 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12434&r=cwa |
| By: | Wiji Arulampalam (University of Warwick and IZA Bonn); Sonia Bhalotra (University of Bristol, CSAE, QEH and CHILD) |
| Abstract: | Data from a range of different environments indicate that the incidence of death is not randomly distributed across families but, rather, that there is a clustering of death amongst siblings. A natural explanation of this would be that there are (observed or unobserved) differences across families, for example in genetic frailty, education or living standards. Another hypothesis of considerable interest for both theory and policy is that there is a causal process whereby the death of a child influences the risk of death of the succeeding child in the family. Drawing language from the literature on the economics of unemployment, the causal effect is referred to here as state dependence (or scarring). This paper investigates the extent of state dependence in India, distinguishing this from family-level risk factors common to siblings. It offers a number of methodological innovations upon previous research. Estimates are obtained for each of three Indian states, which exhibit dramatic differences in socio-economic and demographic variables. The results suggest a significant degree of state dependence in each of the three regions. Eliminating scarring, it is estimated, would reduce the incidence of infant mortality (among children born after the first child) by 9.8% in the state of Uttar Pradesh, 6.0% in West Bengal and 5.9% in Kerala. |
| Keywords: | death clustering, infant mortality, state dependence, scarring, unobserved heterogeneity, dynamic random effects logit, multi-level model, India |
| JEL: | J1 C1 I1 O1 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2251&r=cwa |
| By: | Raghbendra Jha; Raghav Gaiha; Anurag Sharma |
| Keywords: | In this paper we compute nutrient-expenditure elasticities for two macro nutrients (calories and protein) and five micro nutrients (calcium, thiamine, riboflavin, calcium and iron) using an all India sample of rural households for 1994. We show that in each case the respective elasticities are positive and significant. This lends support to our hypothesis that an increase in income would increase nutrient intake by varying amounts, contrary to some assertions. We then compute differences in the elasticity of substitution for rich and poor across commodity groups and show that these differences, while significant, are small. This further corroborates our conclusion that increases in income of the poor would lead to greater increases in their nutrient intake as compared to the non-poor, although the magnitudes will be small. |
| JEL: | C34 I32 J21 J43 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:asarcc:2006-09&r=cwa |
| By: | Magdalena Muszynska (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Drawing on data from new Russian retrospective surveys, this study examines the relationship between women’s employment and the risk of union disruption within both the centrally planned economy and transition period. Our results show that within the two periods, the risk of union dissolution was similar among women who worked and women who did not work. In the transition period, however, differences in the dissolution risk among women existed and were related to the characteristics of the job conducted: occupational status, hours worked and income from side employment activities. Since the collapse of communism, the most discriminating factor between women is the type of ownership of a company, with those who worked for newly established private companies having elevated risk of union dissolution. The results obtained in this study are interpreted in light of the independence effect of women’s employment. |
| Keywords: | Russia, employment, women |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-027&r=cwa |
| By: | Valadkhani, Abbas (University of Wollongong) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the major causes of Iran’s unemployment conundrum using a simultaneous-equation model and annual time series data from 1968 to 2000. It is found that the rate of unemployment responds positively to output gap and increasing economic uncertainty and negatively to the higher growth rates of real investment and inflation, supporting the view that there exists a degree of trade-off between inflation and unemployment. However, since persistent and soaring inflation rates eventually lead to the chronic depreciation of the domestic currency and rising economic instability, it will be irrational to exploit this trade-off to fight against unemployment, particularly in the post-1979 revolution. Iran possesses one of the youngest populations in the world with approximately 40 per cent of its population less than 15 years. It is thus argued that if major tax and constitutional reforms are not undertaken, unemployment will continue to rise, depicting a sombre future for the next working age generation. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, Iran |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uow:depec1:wp06-15&r=cwa |
| By: | Valadkhani, Abbas (University of Wollongong) |
| Abstract: | This study presents a model capturing sources of Iranian aggregate labour productivity using annual time series data from 1960 to 2002. Labour productivity in this model is determined by real net capital stock, information technology and telecommunications (ITT) and trade openness. Empirical estimates indicate that policies aimed at promoting various types of investment and trade openness, which generates technology spillovers, can improve labour productivity. A substantial rise in productivity can not be achieved unless the economy increases its stock of capital in both ITT and non-ITT sectors, and industrial protectionist policies are reversed. |
| Keywords: | Labour productivity, Economic growth, Iran |
| JEL: | C22 N15 O47 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uow:depec1:wp06-13&r=cwa |