|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Sumon Kumar Bhaumik; Jenifer Piesse; |
| Abstract: | Using bank-level data from India, for nine years (1995-96 to 2003-04), we examine banks’ behavior in the context of emerging credit markets. Our results indicate that the credit market behavior of banks in emerging markets is determined by past trends, the diversity of the potential pool of borrowers to whom a bank can lend, and regulations regarding treatment of NPA and lending restrictions imposed by the Reserve Bank of India. Finally, we find evidence that suggest that credit disbursal by banks can be facilitated by regulatory and institutional changes that help banks mitigate the problems associated with enforcement of debt covenants and treatment of NPA on the balance sheets. On the basis of these results, we speculate on some possible policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | Indian banking, Development, Credit-to-deposit ratio, Risk aversion |
| JEL: | G21 O16 |
| Date: | 2005–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wdi:papers:2005-774&r=cwa |
| By: | Supreena Narayanan (Madras School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The financial system consists of specialized and non specialized financial institutions, of organized and unorganized financial markets, of financial instruments and services, which facilitate transfer of funds. Procedures and practices adopted in the markets, and financial interrelationships are also parts of this system. In product or other service markets, purchasers part with their money in exchange for something now. In finance, money “now” is exchanged for a “promise to pay in the future”. However, in product or service markets, if the object sold – from a car to a haircut – is defective, the buyers often find out relatively soon. On the other hand, loan quality is not readily observable for quite some time and can be hidden for extensive periods. Moreover, banks and non-bank financial intermediaries can also alter the risk composition of their assets more quickly than most non-financial industries, and banks can readily hide problems by extending loans to clients that cannot service previous debt obligations. Theoretically, the financial market facilitates allocation of resources efficiently, which involves quick dissemination of information and reaction to it. The financial markets are susceptible to manipulation as some participants have information that others do not that is information asymmetry is ubiquitous in financial markets. To overcome this problem corporate governance is required to ensure that suppliers of finance to corporations are assured that they get their return on their investment . Despite the existence of institutional and legal framework numerous financial scams continue to be perpetuated both in developed and developing countries.The objectives of this study are : a) To examine some of the major misdemeanors which perpetuated in the financial system in 1991 and 2001 in India . b) Understand the financial regulatory measures which have been adopted after the 1991 share scam in India and why despite such measures adopted a security scam has recurred in 2001. c) Examine the theoretical structure of corporate governance for analyzing security scams that have occurred in the 1990s and the new millennium. The second section contains a summary of the events that occurred leading to the share scams and financial frauds in India and abroad during the recent decade that shook the financial markets. The third section surveys the rationale for regulation of securities markets and the functional procedures adopted in India in the aftermath of the scams. The fourth section looks at the theoretical underpinnings of corporate governance which, is followed by a discussion of the shortcomings of the regulatory set up in India which fails to prevent the recurrence of financial misdemeanors. Financial Liberalization is a phenomenon that is almost all pervasive in the world today. While liberalization has led to substantial benefits in terms of increased transparency, it has ushered in opportunities of corporate misgovernance. This implies that the mechanism by which legal institutions ensure that suppliers of funds receive the return on investment is not sufficient or appropriate. Recent trends through the 1990s in India and abroad reveal how corporate governance has not been effective permitting unscrupulous and opportunistic individuals to manipulate the market in their favor. The process of financial market regulation ensures that important guidelines are issued regarding how primary dealers (brokers) should operate with regards to mode of operation, conduct, litigation, amount of business to be handled, management of risk, internal control etc. These security scams and financial scandals discussed here involved the manipulation of huge amounts of money. The perpetrators of these gross transgression had such a comprehensive knowledge of how the system worked that they manipulated it to their advantage operating in an opportunistic manner . The essence of the argument in is that the occurrence and reoccurrence of such security scams and financial scandals can be attributed to a failure of corporate governance in finance despite the existence of an functioning regulatory authority empowered with the legal sanctions. |
| JEL: | G |
| Date: | 2005–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0506012&r=cwa |
| By: | Darcin Akin; Esra Demircioglu |
| Abstract: | Due to the dynamic nature of the urban development in developing countries in parallel to rapidly changing economic, social and technological environments, decisions based on master plans do usually fail. Therefore, spatial transformation is the number one prerequisite to create more livable cities in countries where land use and location decisions do greatly divert from master plans that ill-fully represent the nature of urban development in rapidly changing environment. It is very unfortunate that like many developing countries, central government as well as local governments in Turkey have adopted this approach which is totally inappropriate to their changing environment due to rapid urbanization. In middle and low income economies, urbanization has increased by an average of 3.5 and 3.7% per annum, respectively, compared with an average of 1.5% per annum in the industrialized countries (the rate in Turkey was 4.35% from 1965 to 1985). The percent of urban population in the largest city in Turkey, Istanbul, was 24% in 1980 compared to 18% in 1960. The population of Istanbul was 11.2 million in 2000 compared to 11.3 million of Paris and 11.1 million of Osaka, Kobe (World Development Report by World Bank, 1984). In the periphery of the metropolitan city of Istanbul, there are numerous neighborhoods and urban centers hat need spatial transformation or renewal for the betterment of urban space. Renewal was defined as clearance and redevelopment until the mid-1960s. This approach for the urban betterment was changed in the 1970s by establishing legal ground via improvement and development plans. In contrast to this, in parallel to the radical changes in economic policies in the 1980s, renewal policy for the problematic locations in large urban areas were again equaled regeneration, and spatial transformations were made for the capitalization of global interests in the name of urban rent by transformation projects (Dündar, 2001). The former— improvement and development plans— failed due to the reason said in the beginning. The latter— transformation projects— have found limited application (Portakal Çiçeði, Dikmen Vadisi, Zafer Plaza transformation projects and some others) due to two great limitations: finances and public acceptance towards transformation projects. To overcome these obstacles in general, some approaches are developed, such as ÝHT-ÝHTr-Real-estate planning tools, master plans for earthquakes and natural disasters (Istanbul Metropolitan City), KED Model (Çelikhan et al., 2004). However, these approaches have not found widespread application yet due to necessary legal changes they require and most importantly the finances needed for the transformations desired in urban areas. Under the economic and social conditions in developing countries, what expected from ideal transformation approaches are to create financial tools during the process and to offer the urban rent to land owners primarily in order to speed up the transformation process towards the desired direction by creating voluntarily participation at the utmost level and to reduce the legal problems due to the introduction of new developments and land use planned by the transformation projects to be applied. This study is originated from the idea that large urban developments attract new land uses and users to their proximity or repel current land uses and users around them. This process can be seen as a “voluntarily transformation” process. Since large shopping centers or malls are built in almost every largely populated urban area all over the world in the last 20-30 years due to new shopping habits and global capital investments, we studied the effects of large shopping malls on land use in their proximity as being large developments they create urban transformation process in their proximity, as a case study in Istanbul, Turkey. To support our approach, Dennis at al. (2002) interestingly reported in their study in Northern London that the fist step in urban renovation is to renovate retail shopping and shopping centers. In this context, we performed user surveys in residential and commercial areas as well as at real estate agents in the proximity two large shopping centers; namely, Akmerkez (Etiler, Beþiktaþ) and Tepe-Nautilus (Acýbadem, Kadýköy) in Istanbul. In addition, in the study areas the data on land use changes provided by State Statistics Institute of Turkey have been examined. It is concluded the shopping centers stimulated urban transformation on real estates in their close proximity, and in time they created transformations from residential to commercial within their primary influence boundaries, and beyond those up to a certain distance they became an attractive zone for residential use. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p616&r=cwa |
| By: | Hale Ciraci; Kenan Gocer; Ebru Kerimoglu |
| Abstract: | Tourism industry has been used to create new employment opportunities by increasing the business capacity and to provide economic growth in Turkey. But most of the tourism investments have been located in relatively more developed western and southern regions, which are ecologically sensitive coastal areas. It is known that there are important disparities between socio-economic development levels of different regions and tourism industry can be a planning investment in revitalizing the less developed areas. Turkey is a very large country, it has very much climatic regions and natural resources and as it is a place of meeting of many cultures and religions throughout the history, it owns a very rich cultural and archaeological inheritance. In this framework, it is possible to make tourism investments in such fields as urban tourism, sea-sun tourism, winter tourism or religion based tourism. The urban tourism that is able to attract tourists in any season has a very widespread potential in the country and provides us with substantial opportunities for the provinces with only one tourism option such as winter tourism. From 1980s so far, there has been discrete developments thanks to efforts of local governments, the association of tourism investors and the Ministry of Tourism. The Law for Tourism Encouragement enforced in 1982 defined the terms ‘tourism region’, ‘tourism area’ or ‘tourism center’ and provided such concepts with a legal definition and determined the systems of encouragement and means of application in these fields. In establishing these regions, areas and centers, the country has been taken as a whole with its natural, historical, archaeological, socio-cultural and tourism values as well as winter, hunting and water sports, health tourism and religion based tourism potential. But a means to create network by combining different types of tourism and creating a synergy in tourism sector by means of cooperation between the cities has not been followed so far. Combining these different types of tourism and providing cooperation between cities will create a synergy in tourism sector in less developed areas. This study tries to answer the question of which cities can be grouped as a network to cooperate based on tourism industry regarding their tourism potential. In this study using cluster analysis and factor analysis cities are grouped according to their socio-economic development levels. The results of cluster analysis indicate that western-southern, middle-northern, and eastern-southern regions are three major development levels. According to the factor analysis, the provinces grouped in 4 different levels of development in relation to different factors. These spatial settings in Turkey’s geography show as to which regions would respond the investments to be made in a shorter period. As the country is very large, the attractive points with a high tourism potential, other than those in the developed regions should be determined and a synergy between the settlement zones should be established in an effort to increase the productivity. It would be possible to coordinate the infrastructure investments to take place in the cities and to define the short, medium and long-term investments with this study. |
| Date: | 2004–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa04p409&r=cwa |
| By: | Wendy Janssens (Amsterdam Institute for International Development); Jacques van der Gaag (Amsterdam Institute for International Development); Jan-Willem Gunning (Amsterdam Institute for International Development) |
| Abstract: | The literature on social capital clearly shows the significant relationship between social capital and individual outcomes such as educational attainment. However, there is little evidence so far on outcomes of very young children. This report studies the role of social capital in enhancing child outcomes. It investigates two potential sources of social capital. At the individual level, the authors consider social capital as the resources and information residing in the social networks of a child's parents. At the community level, we analyze social capital as the willingness of a community to cooperate and engage in collective action. We study the Mahila Samakhya programme in rural Bihar (India), a women's empowerment programme that emphasizes female education. The findings strongly suggest that the programme is successful in increasing parental awareness on the value of preschool and primary education. In other words, the programme seems to increase the informational resources of parents on education, a social capital effect. Moreover, the results indicate that programme members are significantly more likely than non- participants in their village to participate in school management and school activities, and to contribute to the construction of schools and preschools. That is, the results are highly suggestive of increased collective action as well. A second main finding is that these results do not remain limited to programme participants. We find that non-participating women in programme villages are significantly more aware of the importance of (preschool) education than women in control villages. In addition, non- participating households in programme villages are also significantly more likely to participate in school management and activities, and to contribute to school construction. These results suggest that the programme not only increases social capital among its members, but has potentially strong spillover effects to other community members as well. The programme seems to increase individual and community social capital throughout the wider community. Next, we study the relationship between the Mahila Samakhya programme and preschool and primary school enrolment. Controlling for child, household and community characteristics, we find that children in programme villages are significantly more likely to be enrolled in preschool. The number of preschools, itself strongly correlated with the presence of the programme, is highly predictive of enrolment. We also find a significant and additional relationship between individual participation in the programme and preschool enrolment. Finally, the evidence suggests that children living in programme villages, whose mothers do not participate themselves, are significantly more likely to be enrolled as well. In short, the programme seems to have a direct relationship with preschool enrolment For primary school the findings are approximately similar. The main difference is that the spillovers of the programme are much less visible. Only girls and children from the lowest castes seem to benefit of the presence of the programme regardless of whether their mother participates herself. A similar analysis of immunization coverage again shows the large spillovers of the programme: children in programme villages are significantly more likely to be immunized against tuberculosis, diphtheria and measles, regardless of the active participation in the programme. Surprisingly, this result is stronger than for individual membership. The differences in immunization coverage between the member households and non-member households are insignificant (except for measles). Note that the programme does not have any correlation with the immunization against polio. The impact of the recent mass polio campaigns organized by the government may obscure any programme effects. Finally, the report analyses the relationship of the programme with health indicators. In particular, it studies the partial correlations of programme village and programme membership on the prevalence of diarrhea. However, the logistic estimation does not confirm any significant relationship. In contrast, participants in the programme do have better knowledge on how to treat diarrhea once it occurs than control households. Again, this relationship is also significant for non-participants although its size is smaller. In summary, the evidence is strongly suggestive of the positive relationship between the Mahila Samakhya programme and increased individual and community social capital. In addition, the findings strongly suggest a positive relationship with pre- and primary school enrolment. Not only on members, but on non-members as well. We find similar results for immunization and the treatment of diarrhea, a proxy for health practices. |
| Keywords: | social capital early childhood development education immunization health india evaluation |
| JEL: | P Q Z |
| Date: | 2005–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0503011&r=cwa |
| By: | Mullen, Kathleen; Orden, David; Gulati, Ashok |
| Abstract: | "Since the early 1990s, India has undergone substantial economic policy reform and economic growth. Though reforms in agricultural policy have lagged those in other sectors, they have nonetheless created a somewhat more open economic orientation. In this study, we evaluate the protection and support versus disprotection of agriculture in India. Our methodology involves examining market price support (MPS) for eleven crops, the expenditures on input subsidies benefiting farmers (for fertilizer, electricity and irrigation), and product-specific and total producer support estimates (PSEs) over the period 1985-2002. We draw on the extensive price-comparison and subsidy-measurement data sets and analysis developed earlier by Gulati and his co-authors, often using disaggregated analysis for representative surplus and deficit states. This allows us to explore how key cost adjustments impact the results. Overall, our results indicate that support for agriculture in India has been counter-cyclical. Support for agriculture has been rising when world prices are low (as in the mid 1980s and 1998-2002) and falling when world prices are high (as in the early and mid 1990s). Our results demonstrate the increased importance of budgetary payments for input subsidies in agriculture in recent years. Yet, in the aggregate for both price support and budgetary expenditures over the period 1985-2002 the counter-cyclical dimension of agricultural policy dominates a clear trend of movement from disprotection towards protection. Using different variants of MPS and PSE measurment we have extended earlier analysis to demonstrate the impact of key assumptions on the calculations. These assumptions we argue are important to consider. For example, in the standard approach, the MPS for the covered commodities is “scaled up” based on the share of the covered commodities in the total value of production. If the commodity coverage is less than complete, as is often the case, the scaling up procedure leads to a total MPS of greater absolute value than the MPS for the covered commodities. This can result in PSEs of different sign than the non-scaled up version but is inappropriate unless market price support for the commodities not covered is similar to that of the covered commodities. Furthermore, we find that the standard procedure of computing the MPS through a comparison of the domestic price to an adjusted reference price based on observed imports or exports can be problematic. This happens when trade volumes are relatively small. In such a scenario a reference price based on observed imports or exports can lead to misleading conclusions. To address the reference price issue, we follow Byerlee and Morris (1993). Essentially the approach adopted is to compute the level of protection or disprotection based on a counterfactual reference price chosen on economic criteria i.e. the adjusted reference price that would exist in the country if the policy interventions were removed. The relevant price can either be the autarky equilibrium price or the import or export adjusted reference price depending on the relationship among these prices. We apply this modified procedure for six crops (wheat, rice, corn, sorghum, sugar and groundnuts). The choice of the crops is dictated by the fact that India has been near self-sufficiency and there have been changes in the direction of trade over the period of analysis. The magnitudes of estimated support for agriculture obtained in this paper are important for several reasons. The estimates confirm that high levels of subsidies were required for India to export wheat or rice in recent years, a conclusion reached by several other studies. However, we report less disprotection of Indian agriculture in the 1990s than in earlier studies. Partly this difference is explained by the modified procedure for choice of a reference price. A large component of this difference can be accounted for by whether or not the scaling up procedure is invoked. There are also fertile areas for future research. Estimates of adjustment costs used in domestic-to-border price comparisons, such as transportation and processing costs or marketing margins, are crucial variables in the analysis and merit being re-examined and further updated. Resolving what are the most reasonable assumptions about reference prices, or extending the analysis to additional crops and livestock to reduce uncertainty in future assessments will also contribute to fuller understanding of the net stance of policy toward agriculture and how it has evolved over time" Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | South Asia ,South Asia and Central Asia ,Agricultural policy ,Producer Support Estimates (PSEs) ,Agricultural support ,Agricultural production ,Scaling up , |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:mtiddp:82&r=cwa |
| By: | Morris Sebastian |
| Abstract: | In this paper we discuss the stylised problems relating to water and irrigation in India and argue that most of the inefficiencies, misuse and environmental damage have their roots in the mispricing of water and electricity. Since the only kind of subsidies thus far used are price based input subsidies they end up distorting the allocative prices, from which the other distortions follow. The problems of the sector can be overcome by changing the method of subsidisation. Converting price based or tariff subsidies to direct subsidies and endowments with improved tradability would solve most of the problems in the water and electricity sectors. Administrative and managerial initiatives by themselves would not succeed without this crucial tariff and subsidy reform. Such reform would also result in political capital for its initiators, and should make private and public financing of water (and electricity) projects possible. The issues related to pricing, water rights, subsidies and financing are deeply interlinked, and the correct pricing would necessarily have to recognise the financing dimension. Water being a scarce commodity with major composition and coordination economies in its use, its pricing cannot be discussed without a consideration of the rights (implicit or otherwise). This study, unlike many previous diagnostic studies, has been led by the need to find solutions to a fast deteriorating situation: rising implicit subsidies, movement away from optimal use in a major way, huge distortions and resulting social costs in the use and misuse of water, and as much as 30% of the irrigation water supplied being wasted. The environmental effects of such inappropriate use and waste increase by the day. Our approach to the problem calls for a strategic shift in so far as we argue that reform is not possible if the present approach to work around major policy and design infirmities rather than remove them in the first place continues. This is because the distortions have been so deep rooted as to have fed back into the governance and institutional structure of water management in the country. We also argue for solutions that are incentive compatible in the sense that the designs for pricing & regulation and financing (within the appropriate policy and rights framework) are internally consistent and would work without depending continually upon political commitment, administrative initiatives and managerial energies. Incentive compatible policies are those which by design meet the criteria that the actors, civil servants, proposed water companies and cooperatives, electricity companies, farmers have the correct incentives to do what is right for efficient production, management, allocation and consumption of the resource without administrative direction or urging or demanding the presence of persons with exceptional morals, or leadership qualities. Key elements of our recommendations are: The right to water of a state to the rivers and other water bodies should include the right to trade i.e. to sell the water. This would be consistent with the fact that the bulk of he water is for commercial use today. A formal, perhaps constitutional basis of sharing the waters of interstate rivers rather than national level optimal use being pursued weakly through agreements as is the case today is important. The irrigation sector at all levels is opened to the private sector through frameworks for various kinds of private finance initiatives including the DBF /DBFO type initiatives. Rather than cost plus, it would be far more useful to institute regulation which is incentive in approach and price cap in form, though uniform caps across the country would not be possible nor desirable. Price caps could be the same across fairly large regions. All subsidies whether for electricity or water would have to be direct subsidies delivered to the farmer. An identification exercise carried out once that allows the endowments of a farmer to be fixed, so that he can be issued electricity coupons and water coupons periodically, is necessary. This ensures the political commitment of the farmer since now he has nothing to lose but a lot to gain. Without such commitment and certainly with their hostility as the current agenda to eliminate or reduce subsidies implies, no reform is possible. With all subsidies going direct, there need not be restraints on commercial behaviour and orientation of all participants in the market. The productive organisations – bulk water companies, retail companies and distributors including (WUAs), and farmers can all relate to the regulated bulk, and retail market prices. Current subsidies in irrigation are converted to endowments in units of water and provided to the farmer in the form of coupons with which (as also with cash) he can buy water, and even sell the same subject to certain restraints. Thereby prices are allowed to perform their function of ensuring allocative and use efficiency. Since water supplies may be limited (because of natural factors, and because of limited existing capacity to produce /store) bulk water rates ought to be regulated, with only small opportunity for water companies (bulk and distribution) to gain out of the (high) retail water market prices. Regulated prices could be long run marginal cost (LRMC), in which case the difference between the commercial viability prices and the LRMC prices is made up for the private /commercial bulk water producer through annuities in an appropriate private finance initiative (PFI) deal. The benefit of the difference between the regulated retail prices at which water is supplied to the farmer and the retail water market prices in the command area/ayacut is to the account of the farmer. Since the farmer is able to internalise this benefit with reference to the price, there are strong incentives for judicious use, and optimal trade. In water scare regions it would restore and enhance the incentives for even investments in water saving technologies. A little of the same benefits is designed to be internalised by the water distribution entity so that it has strong incentives to save water in distribution, recover losses, and make investments for repairs, rehabilitation and augmentation Tradability across an entire command is a desirable objective, which can be introduced as experience is gained of the system. Cross command tradability should also slowly emerge subject to certain safeguards against the monopolisation of access rights to water. Water distribution companies are ideally structured as WUAs i.e., cooperatives but with some allowed asymmetry in shareholding. But they ought not to be limited to WUAs or even to farmers’ companies. Bidding for distribution business should be open to entirely private companies too, so that the process of decentralised distribution does not necessarily have to be constrained by the ‘free rider’ problem in cooperation. For entirely new projects requiring construction of new distribution assets, the access rights can be sold at prefixed prices/market prices but strictly limited to farmers with operational/own holdings of land in the command area/ayacut, to raise the capital to construct the distribution system. This can be done separately for each of the distribution areas, since the bid prices are likely to vary depending upon such factors as the alternative supplies including from ground water available. Such purchase of the rights to water would lead to much flow of finance into the sector, and in a way that is functional and entirely incentive compatible. Banks and rural development finance institutions without any subsidy could then support the participation of farmers in the equity of distribution companies. Tanks systems would also require a certain recasting with formally defined rights and prices for use of ground water and surface irrigation. The need here is to minimise the free-rider problem that is inherently a barrier in the management and judicious use of tank irrigation (a common resource in many ways). Herein the key to reform is to lead the system to an explicit relative valuation of the direct and indirect output of the tank (canal water and ground water) through bids restricted to farmers from within the ayacut. A prior fixation of the shares of each farmer in the ‘tank’ business that includes already existing use of wells is the key. Tradability among members of such ‘rights water’ would ensure its judicious use, and the expansion /savings in supplies would follow from the large profits that farmer would make in avoiding leakages and siltation. |
| Keywords: | India, Irrigation, Electricity, Reform, Subsidy, distortion, Privatisation, commercialisation, Water-users-Association, water-rights, pricing, financing, public-private-partnership |
| JEL: | H4 |
| Date: | 2005–11–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2005-11-05&r=cwa |
| By: | Mumtaz Anwar (University of the Punjab, Lahore Pakistan & Hamburg Institute of International Economics HWWA); Katharina Michaelowa (Hamburg Institute of International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Variations of bilateral aid flows are difficult to explain on the basis of official development objectives or recipient need. At the example of US aid to Pakistan, this paper suggests alternative political economic explanations, notably the relevance of ethnic lobbying and the relevance of US business interests. Time series regressions for the period from 1980 to 2002 and logistic regressions based on votes for the Pressler and the Brown Amendment confirm the significance of these political economic determinants. While in case of the Pressler Amendment, the direct influence of population groups of Indian and Pakistani origins seems to have played a predominant role, the role of ethnic business lobbies appears to have dominated in the context of the Brown Amendment. Time series analysis also provides some evidence for the impact of US business interests based on FDI and exports, but these effects appear to be comparatively small. |
| Keywords: | Public Choice, ethnic lobbying, foreign aid |
| JEL: | D70 F35 |
| Date: | 2004–11–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0411008&r=cwa |
| By: | Arzu Basaran |
| Abstract: | Rapid growth of urban areas and their development problems in industrializing countries has had major impacts on the environment. Water, the main source of life on earth is under the threat of various types of pollution. These threats have been forceful in demonstrating the necessity of the management and planning of drainage basins. The importance of the evaluation of the total economic value of the water resources and aquatic ecosystems of drainage basins has not yet been accepted in the current planning system of Turkey. In Turkey a total number of 36 public agencies take part in the decision making process within a drainage basin. Decisions taken by these agencies with respect to the use of land and water affect the quality and sustainability of water as a natural resource. These agencies act under a legal structure comprising 105 different laws and regulations related to the environment and this creates additional confusion in planning practice. The situation calls for the organization of special drainage management institutions for drainage basins. The aim of this study is to explore the use of game theory to analyze the roles and actions of different interest groups (players) and develop a better understanding of the decision making process and its consequences on a drainage basin. In this study, we use the case of a river sub-basin from the north-western region of Turkey: the Nilüfer Watershed that contains fertile agricultural lands and the third biggest industrial city in Turkey. The Nilüfer Stream is deeply polluted by industrial, agricultural and domestic wastewater. There are 1 metropolitan municipality, 20 district municipalities and 8 provincial authorities of central government within the watershed. All players have strategies about environment and planning such as land use decision, waste water standard and discharge permitting etc. Some strategies conflict the other players’ strategies. Game theory, which aims to explain the interactive decision making process with more than one decision maker, has developed as a theory of human strategic behavior based on an idealized picture of rational decision making (Binmore, 1996; Eichberger, 1992). The game theory has been applied to social sciences especially to economy, international relations, politics, which are in the state of making decisions in non-cooperative conditions. Although there is limited in number the game theory applications in planning, they are very important studies on location problem in spatial planning such as Stevens, (1961), Isard and Reiner, (1962), Isard, (1967). There are also new studies that use the game theory in planning. Sharing problem of river as a natural resource is the main study area in planning (Dinar and Wolf, 1994; Kilot, 1994; Kucukmekmetoglu and Guldman, 2002; Rogers, 1993). Game theory applications on environmental problems started in 1990s. Environmental problems such as transfrontier pollution (air or water) are often multilateral, and they affect all the agents in the economies of countries. There are studies in which air pollution problem is analyzed by the game theory with the cooperation of neighbor countries such as Ray (2000), Maler and Zeeuw (1998), Barret (1998). In this research an in depth analysis is made to understand the preferences and attitudes of different players taking part within the Nilüfer watershed. Players generally make independent decisions without any form of cooperation situation. Therefore, non-cooperative game is used in this analyze. The decision making process of the players are analyzed through a scenario in two-player games. The scenario is about strategies of environmental protection and industrial development in the watershed. We explore Nash equilibrium in game which represents present condition. Nash (1950) proved the existence of a strategic equilibrium for non-cooperative games. The main outcome of the paper will be to point to new directions in the planning process and to open to discussion the use of game theory in planning. Game theoretic approach will make it easier for the agents to cooperate if the conflicts in the planned area are clearly defined. It is possible to achieve cooperative bargaining solutions where all agents are winners. Actually, this is the target of planning because sustainable development of the river basin depends on bargaining where all agents are winners. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p197&r=cwa |
| By: | Daniel Daianu; Ella Kallai; |
| Abstract: | Disinflation has been pursued successfully in Romania in recent years. Inflation came down from over 40 per cent in 2001 to 14 per cent in 2003 and is expected to be cca 9.5 per cent in 2004. By 2007 it should come down to around 3%. The benefits of a lowinflation environment are unquestionable, as price stability is the ultimate objective of monetary policy. In addition, low inflation is a pre-condition for EU accession. There only remains the other critical question, namely, what is the proper strategy to achieve the ultimate objective. Different central banks have adopted strategies which place different emphasize on the various pieces of information, or elements of their decision-making process or different aspects of their communication policies. Inflation targeting (IT) is one of those strategies. |
| Keywords: | inflation-targeting, transition economy, EU accession |
| JEL: | E52 F41 P44 |
| Date: | 2005–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wdi:papers:2005-789&r=cwa |
| By: | Wahba, Jackline |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the influence of adult market wages and having parents who were child labourers on child labour, when this decision is jointly determined with child schooling, using data from Egypt. The empirical results suggest that low adult market wages are key determinants of child labour; a 10 percent increase in the illiterate male market wage decreases the probability of child labour by 22 percent for boys and 13 percent for girls. The findings also indicate the importance of social norms in the inter-generational persistence of child labour: parents who were child labourers themselves are on average 10 percent more likely to send their children to work. In addition, higher local regional income inequality increases the likelihood of child labour. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stn:sotoec:0603&r=cwa |