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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Heng Chen (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore); Bento J. Lobo (University of Tennessee at Chattanooga); Wing-Keung Wong (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the bilateral relations between three pairs of stock markets, namely India-U.S., India-China and China-U.S. We use a Fractionally Integrated Vector Error Correction Model (FIVECM) to examine the cointegration mechanism between markets. By augmenting the FIVECM with a multivariate GARCH formulation, we study the first and second moment spillover effects simultaneously. Our empirical results show that all three pairs of stock markets are fractionally cointegrated. The U.S. stock market plays a dominant role in the relations with the other two markets, whereas there is an interactive relationship between the Indian and Chinese stock markets. In particular, the Indian stock market dominates the first moment feedback with the Chinese market, while the latter dominates the second moment feedback with the former. |
| Keywords: | Stock market, Cointegration, Fractionally Integrated Vector Error Correction Model, Multivariate GARCH |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nus:nusewp:wp0602&r=cwa |
| By: | Yeldan, Erinc; Verghis, Mathew; Jensen, Henning Tarp; Agenor, Pierre-Richard |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy and fiscal adjustment on output and unemployment in Turkey. The model on which the analysis is based accounts for rural-urban migration, a large urban informal sector, flexible exchange rates, a dollarized banking system, and interactions between default risk on government liabilities, credibility, and inflation expectations. The short- and long-run effects of a rise in official interest rates and tax increases are analyzed. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the link between default risk and credibility in understanding the real and financial effects of macroeconomic adjustment. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Economic Theory & Research,Banks & Banking Reform,Public Sector Economics & Finance,Economic Stabilization |
| Date: | 2006–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3804&r=cwa |
| By: | Narain, Urvashi (Resources For the Future); van 't Veld, Klaas; Gupta, Shreekant |
| Abstract: | Using purpose-collected survey data from 537 households in 60 different villages of the Jhabua district of India, this paper investigates the extent to which rural households depend on common-pool natural resources for their daily livelihood. Previous studies have found that resource dependence— defined as the fraction of total income derived from common-pool resources—strongly decreases with income. Our study finds a more complex relationship. First, for the subsample of households that use positive amounts of resources, we find that dependence follows a U-shaped relationship with income, declining at first but then increasing. Second, we find that the probability of being in the subsample of common-pool resource users follows an inverse U-shaped relationship with income- the poorest and richest households are less likely to collect resources than those with intermediate incomes. Resource use by the rich is therefore bimodal- either very high or—for the very richest households—zero. Third, we find that resource dependence increases at all income levels with an increase in the level of common-pool biomass availability. The combination of these results suggests that the quality of natural resources matters to a larger share of the rural population than had been previously believed; common-pool resources contribute a significant fraction of the income not just of the desperately poor, but also of the relatively rich. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-05-18&r=cwa |
| By: | Bhat Ramesh |
| Abstract: | Hospitals are an important component of the healthcare delivery system. Over the years, India has experienced a significant increase in the number of hospital beds to meet the growing health demands of its population. Most of this growth has been experienced in the small sized private hospital sector (popularly known as nursing homes in India). The corporate hospital sector, however, has not exhibited similar growth though private expenditures on medical and health care in real terms have grown at 10 per cent per annum and government of India initiating number of policy reforms after 1991 aimed at attracting more capital to hospital sector. This experience has something to do with the financial health and risks, as these are critical determinants in attracting private capital. Using the financial balance sheets and profit and loss account data of 128 hospitals in India, this paper examines the financial health of hospitals in the private sector. Based on 26 key financial ratios, the paper empirically identifies relevant dimensions of financial health of hospitals. These dimensions are: profitability, financial structure, overall efficiency, cost structure, profit appropriation, technology advancement, credit management, fixed asset intensity, liquidity and current assets efficiency. It then discusses the implications of the findings. Because of lower profitability, lower financial efficiencies and less understood economies of scale, the risks in the health sector are likely to remain high. Other risk factors are the geographic pull factor, long gestation periods, a highly fragmented sector and inadequacy of standards. In this scenario, new investment in the health sector will remain resource dependent on subsidised channels of funding and will be sensitive to the out-of-pocket payment of fees, which still remains the main channel of revenues of these hospitals. |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2006–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2006-01-01&r=cwa |
| By: | K. Chandrasekhar; S. Bhaduri |
| Abstract: | Recently, it has been suggested that the process of economic development should ideally be viewed as a socioeconomic transformation. Such a view requires a comprehensive understanding of how agents learn and change their behaviour. However, these aspects have only been inadequately addressed in development theory. This paper argues that social-cognitive vicarious learning theories can become a useful methodological tool by incorporating a triadic interaction between personal factors (beliefs, values), behaviour and environment. Our analysis is based on a survey of the Indian trans-Himalayan regions. The development trajectory of these regions suggests that a proper understanding of the vicarious learning mechanism provides crucial insight into the speed of socioeconomic transformations. It also helps to identify appropriate change agents within a society and, in turn, underscores the need for a comprehensive, yet flexible, development policy framework. |
| Keywords: | development, socio-economic transformation, vicarious learning, evolution, traditional societies |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esi:evopap:2005-18&r=cwa |
| By: | David A. Jaeger (Department of Economics, College of William and Mary); M. Daniele Paserman (Department of Economics, Hebrew University) |
| Abstract: | In this study we extend our previous work to examine the dynamic relationship between violence committed by Palestinian factions and that committed by Israel during the Second Intifada. We find a statistically significant relationship between Israeli fatalities claimed by groups associated with the ruling political party, Fatah, and subsequent Palestinian fatalities. We do not find a similar relationship for Israeli fatalities claimed by Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other Palestinian factions. We conjecture that these differences are due to the different positions of the factions vis-ˆ-vis bargaining over a two-state solution to the conflict as well as the organizational structures of the factions. |
| Keywords: | Intifada, terrorism, conflict resolution, bargaining, violence |
| JEL: | C32 D71 D74 H56 |
| Date: | 2005–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwm:wpaper:23&r=cwa |
| By: | Harsh Bhargava (ICFAI University ,Hyderabad,India); Deepak Kumar (ICFAI University Press,Hyderabad,India) |
| Abstract: | Policy plays a significant role in nation building. This paper attempts to highlight the role of policy issues in bringing about rural transformation. India has its own peculiarities in both demographic and economic terms when we closely observe the urban and rural areas and its associated concerns. These peculiarities need to be kept in mind while formulating policies. If we take a snapshot of our history of the last 60 years since independence, we find that many policy initiatives taken by the government have indeed borne good results, albeit largely benefiting the urban population. The paper also highlights another peculiarity of India i.e. the growing disparity in application and use of technology in our day to day lives. The caution is that this growing ‘digital divide’ is not a healthy sign from sociological perspective. If unchecked, it may lead to social and economic fragmentation of the country. We also bring out few recent policy initiatives of the Government to achieve rural development as also the role played by the corporate sector and NGOs. The political leadership of the country has to rise above the ‘names-in-the-foundation-stone’ culture and ensure continuity of policies and implementation programmes. Only then, we can hope to go beyond paying ‘lip-service’ to rural transformation in our country. |
| Keywords: | Policy,India |
| JEL: | R |
| Date: | 2005–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0512015&r=cwa |
| By: | Viviana Fernandez |
| Abstract: | In this article, we analyze the impact of recent political conflicts in the Middle East on stock markets worldwide. In particular, we study how political instability––mainly due to the war in Iraq––has affected long-term volatility of stock markets. In doing so, we utilize two approaches to detecting structural breakpoints in volatility: Inclan and Tiao’s Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) algorithm and wavelet-based variante analysis. After controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity and serial correlation in returns, we conclude that Middle East conflicts have had an impact primarily on the stock markets of countries in that region and emerging Asian countries (e.g., Turkey, Morocco, Egypt, Pakistan, and Indonesia). Further evidence, from an international version of the CAPM, shows that political instability in the Middle East has increased the sensitivity of stock markets to exchange rate risk and, to a lesser extent, to market risk (e.g., Pakistan and Spain). |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:edj:ceauch:215&r=cwa |
| By: | Bell, Ruth (Resources For the Future); Narain, Urvashi (Resources For the Future) |
| Abstract: | Although there is general public approval of the improvements in Delhi’s air quality in the recent years, the process by which this change was brought about has been criticized. A common perception is that air quality policies were prescribed by the Supreme Court, and not by an institution with the mandate for making environmental policy. A careful review of the policy process in Delhi suggests otherwise. We find that the government was intimately involved in policymaking and that the main role of the Supreme Court was to force the government to implement previously announced policies. A good understanding of what happened is essential, as the Delhi experience for instituting change has become a model for other Indian cities as well as neighboring countries. |
| Keywords: | air quality, Supreme Court, compressed natural gas, Delhi |
| JEL: | Q42 Q53 Q58 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-05-48&r=cwa |
| By: | Glenn Harrison (Department of Economics, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida); Steven Humphrey (School of Economics, University of Nottingham); Arjan Verschoor (School of Development Studies, University of East Anglia) |
| Abstract: | We review experimental evidence collected from risky choice experiments using poor subjects in Ethiopia, India and Uganda. Using these data we estimate that just over 50% of our sample behaves in accordance with expected utility theory and that the rest subjectively weight probability according to prospect theory. Our results show that inferences about risk aversion are robust to whichever model we adopt when we estimate each model separately. However, when we allow both models to explain portions of the data simultaneously, we infer risk aversion for subjects behaving according to expected utility theory and risk seeking behavior for subjects behaving according to prospect theory. We conclude that the current practice of designing policies under the assumption that one or other explains all behavior is fundamentally flawed. |
| Keywords: | choice under uncertainty, field experiments, developing countries |
| JEL: | O12 D81 C93 |
| Date: | 2005–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdx:dpaper:2005-18&r=cwa |
| By: | J. David Brown (Heriot-Watt University and CEU Labor Project); John S. Earle (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research and Central European University); Almos Telegdy (Central European University and Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of privatization on firm-level wages and employment in four transition economies. Contrary to workers' fears, our fixed effect and random trend estimates imply little effect of domestic privatization, except for a slight negative effect in Russia, and they provide some evidence of positive foreign effects on both wages and employment in all four countries. The negligible employment impact of domestic privatization results from effects on efficiency and scale that are large, positive, but offsetting in Hungary and Romania, and from small effects of both types in Russia and Ukraine. The positive employment and wage bill consequences of foreign ownership result from a substantial scale-expansion effect that dominates the efficiency effect. |
| Keywords: | privatization, employment, wages, foreign ownership, Hungary, Romania, Russia, Ukraine |
| JEL: | D21 G34 J23 J31 L33 P31 |
| Date: | 2005–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:05-125&r=cwa |