nep-cwa New Economics Papers
on Central and Western Asia
Issue of 2005‒11‒05
six papers chosen by
Nurdilek Hacialioglu
Open University

  1. Competition Law in India: Need to Go Slow and Steady By Agarwal Anurag K
  2. The Indian Economy Since Liberalisation: the Structure and Composition of Exports and Industrial Transformation (1980 – 2000) By Abhijit Sharma; Michael Dietrich
  3. Addressing Market-access Concerns of Developing Countries Arising from Envinronmental and Health Requirements: Lessons from National Experiences By Dale Andrew; Karim Dahou; Ronald Steenblik
  4. Inflation and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Non-linear Analysis By Robert Pollin; Andong Zhu
  5. Industrial Sector Growth Accounting of Some Indian States and Union Territories: A Data Envelopment Analysis By Somesh Kumar Mathur; Shahid Ahmed
  6. Forecasting Volatility of Turkish Markets: A Comparison of Thin and Thick Models By Ekrem Kilic

  1. By: Agarwal Anurag K
    Abstract: The globalized and liberalized Indian economy is witnessing cut-throat competition. To provide institutional support to healthy and fair competition, there is a requirement of better regulatory and adjudicatory mechanism. To this effect, India has enacted the new competition law which shall replace the earlier law. This is a shift from curbing monopolies to encouraging competition. The design of the new law carves out a very important role for the Competition Commission of India (CCI). The task has been divided in three phases. This article sets out to explain the intricate relationship of competition law and judiciary in India by examining the experience CCI had so far. The article then goes on to examine the role of lawyers. The article then considers the time frame for the implementation of the three phases and provides realistic suggestions to have a successful setting of competition regime in India.
    Keywords: Competition Advocacy, Competition Commission, India, Judiciary, Lawyers, MRTP Act
    Date: 2005–10–27
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2005-10-05&r=cwa
  2. By: Abhijit Sharma (Imperial College London); Michael Dietrich (University of Sheffield UK)
    Abstract: This paper assesses empirically structural change in the Indian manufacturing based export sector, based on an analysis of 143 industries / product groupings (mainly manufacturing industries). Trade indices such as Balassa’s revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index, and other variants commonly employed in the literature are used in our analysis. Regression analysis on the RSCA indices is used to further analyse structural change. Thereafter, the stability of the RCA indices is examined, as well as the process of their intertemporal evolution. Three technology categories (high technology, medium technology and low technology) are examined individually and SITC product codes are used as proxies for export industries, in order to look at industry movements within each of these groups. This analysis enables us to assess the export performance of Indian industries in the selected product-industry groupings in detail and evaluate the prospects for growth of particular Indian industrial groupings.
    Keywords: India, revealed comparative advantage, manufacturing exports, industrial transformation
    JEL: L6
    Date: 2005–10–28
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0510015&r=cwa
  3. By: Dale Andrew; Karim Dahou; Ronald Steenblik
    Abstract: This report represents the stock-taking of the lessons learned from a series of twenty OECD case studies which examined specific market access problems arising from evironmental and health requirements faced by developing country exporters. Together with a series of UNCTAD case studies and the experiences exchanged at an OECD Gobal Forum on Trade workshop, held in New Delhi in November 2002, the focus is on the approaches that contributed to addressing the market access difficulties. These are divided into two sections: first, those addressing information flows and capacity building needs of developing-country exporters, undertaken both by governments and non-governmental organisations; and then the procedures in developing, implementing and reviewing regulations and standards. While covering a range of natural resource-based exports and manufactures and one traded service in key OECD import markets, no generalisation can be drawn regarding the scale of the market-access problems created by environmental and health requirements.
    Keywords: environment, regulations, market access, standards, developing countries, capacity building
    Date: 2004–09–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaaa:5-en&r=cwa
  4. By: Robert Pollin; Andong Zhu
    Abstract: This paper presents new non-linear regression estimates of the relationship between inflation and economic growth for 80 countries over the period 1961 – 2000. We perform tests using the full sample of countries as well as sub-samples consisting of OECD countries, middle-income countries, and low-income countries. We also consider the full sample of countries within the four separate decades between 1961 – 2000. Considering our full data set we consistently find that higher inflation is associated with moderate gains in GDP growth up to a roughly 15 – 18 percent inflation threshold. However, the findings diverge when we divide our full data set according to income levels. With the OECD countries, no clear pattern emerges at all with either the inflation coefficient or our estimated turning point. With the middle income countries, we return to a consistently positive pattern of inflation coefficients, though none are statistically significant. The turning points range within a narrow band in this sample, between 14 – 16 percent. With the low income countries, we obtain positive and higher coefficient values on the inflation coefficient than with the middle-income countries. With the groupings by decade, the results indicate that inflation and growth will be more highly correlated to the degree that macroeconomic policy is focused on demand management as a stimulus to growth. We consider the implications of these findings for the conduct of monetary policy. One is that there is no justification for inflation-targeting policies as they are currently being practiced throughout the middle- and low-income countries, that is, to maintain inflation with a 3 – 5 percent band.
    Date: 2005
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uma:periwp:wp109&r=cwa
  5. By: Somesh Kumar Mathur (Jamia Millia Islamia); Shahid Ahmed (Jamia Millia Islamia)
    Abstract: We work out technical efficiency levels of the Indian States and Union Territories using Data Envelopment Analysis from 1980-81 to 1997-98. We decompose net value added per worker growth into components attributable to technological changes (shifts in the overall production frontier),technological catch up(movement towards or away from the frontier) and capital accumulation(movement along the frontier).The overall production frontier is constructed using data envelopment analysis, requiring no specification of functional form for the technology nor any assumption about market structure or the absence of market imperfections. We analyze the evolution of cross states net value added distribution for the 22 Indian states and union territories from 1980-81 to 1997-98 using Kernel densities. The efficiency factor accounted for 5.07 % only,technological change accounted for 11.66 % while the contribution of capital deepening is relatively higher at 17.82% while the point to point productivity change is of 11.66%. The overall averages provide evidence of productivity improvements of 173.29 over 1980-81(base) to 1997-98(current year) period.The efficiency factor accounted for -10.63% % only,technological change accounted for 173.20 while the contribution of capital deepening is 42.52% TO ACCOUNT for 173.20% overall PRODUCTIVITY CHANGE(not point to point). The results seems to suggest that there are other factors suggested in the literature like barriers to exit, a maze of rules and regulations, government import policies, high concentration, among others, rather than the ones that are included below for the growth accounting exercise which can totally account for point to point and overall productivity changes from 1980-81 to 1997-98..Also, we do find that the efficiency levels for the Indian states have gone down from what it was in 1980s to what it were in 1997-98.However,the smaller states have out performed the larger states in terms of their efficiency levels. Also, States which had relatively lower efficiency levels and net value added per worker in 1980-81 are the ones which have grown faster than other states. We see tendency of catching up among the Indian states in terms of net value added per worker..
    Keywords: growth accounting, data envelopment analysis, technical efficiency, efficiency change, technological change, capital deepening,, kernel smoothing, cross country labor productivity distribution
    JEL: C6 D5 D9
    Date: 2005–10–28
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpge:0510010&r=cwa
  6. By: Ekrem Kilic (Marmara University)
    Abstract: Volatility of financial markets is an important topic for academics, policy makers and market participants. In this study first I summarized several specifications for the conditional variance and also define some methods for combination of these specifications. Then assuming that the squared returns are the benchmark estimate for actual volatility of the day, I compare all of the models with respect to how much efficient they are to mimic the realized volatility. At the same time I used a VaR approach to compare these forecasts. With the help of these analyses I examine if combination of the forecast could outperform the single models.
    Keywords: volatility, arch, garch, combination, VaR
    JEL: C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8
    Date: 2005–10–29
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0510007&r=cwa

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