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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | David A. Jaeger (College of William and Mary and IZA Bonn); M. Daniele Paserman (Hebrew University, CEPR and IZA Bonn) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the dynamics of violence in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict since the outbreak of the Second (or "Al-Aqsa") Intifada in September 2000, during which more than 3,300 Palestinians and more than 1,000 Israelis have been killed. The conflict has followed an uneven pattern, with periods of high levels of violence and periods of relative calm. Using data on the number of deaths occurring each day between September 2000 and January 2005, we estimate reaction functions for both Israelis and Palestinians and find evidence of unidirectional Granger causality from Palestinian violence to Israeli violence, but not vice versa. This finding is consistent whether we look only at the incidence of fatalities or whether we look at the level of fatalities, and is robust to the specification of the lag structure and the level of time aggregation. We find little evidence that violence on either side has a direct deterrent or incapacitation effect. We do find, however, that successful assassination attempts do reduce the number of subsequent Israeli fatalities. We conclude that, despite the popular perception that Palestinians and Israelis are engaged in "tit-for-tat" violence, there is no evidence to support that notion. |
| Keywords: | Intifada, terrorism, Granger causality |
| JEL: | C32 D71 D74 H56 |
| Date: | 2005–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1808&r=cwa |
| By: | Sarbajit Chaudhuri (Dept. of Economics, Calcutta University, India); Manash Ranjan Gupta (Economic Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the implications of trade liberalization on the incidence of child labour in a two-sector general equilibrium framework. The supply function of child labour has been derived from the utility maximizing behaviour of the working families. The paper finds that the effect of trade liberalization on the incidence of child labour crucially hinges on the relative factor intensities of the two sectors. |
| Keywords: | Child labour, general equilibrium, trade liberalization |
| JEL: | F10 J10 J13 I28 |
| Date: | 2005–10–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpla:0510017&r=cwa |
| By: | Gary Clyde Hufbauer (Institute for International Economics); Yee Wong (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Frustrated with lackluster momentum in the WTO Doha Round and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, and mindful of free trade agreement (FTA) networks centered on the United States and Europe, Asian countries have joined the FTA game. By 2005, Asian countries (excluding China) had ratified 14 bilateral and regional FTAs and had negotiated but not implemented another seven. Asian nations are also actively negotiating some 23 bilateral and regional FTAs, many with non-Asian partners, including Australia, Canada, Chile, the European Union, India, and Qatar. China has been particularly active since 2000. It has completed three bilateral FTAs—Thailand in 2003 and Hong Kong and Macao in 2004—and is initiating another 17 bilateral and regional FTAs. However, a regional Asian economic bloc led by China seems distant, even though China accounts for about 30 percent of regional GDP. As in Europe and the Western Hemisphere, many Asian countries are pursuing FTAs with countries outside the region. On present evidence, the FTA process embraced with some enthusiasm in Asia, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere more closely resembles fingers reaching idiosyncratically around the globe rather than politico-economic blocs centered respectively on Beijing, Brussels, and Washington. |
| Keywords: | Regional free trade agreements, China, trade liberalization, Asia, FTA strategy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 N75 |
| Date: | 2005–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp05-12&r=cwa |
| By: | Dirk Bezemer (University of Groningen); Junior Davis (Natural Resources Institute) |
| Abstract: | In this paper the findings of a survey conducted in June 2001 in Armenia are summarised. The aim was to gain insight into the nature of the rural non-farm economy (RNFE) in the country. For that purpose, 21 rural communities in 3 regions (called marzes in Armenian) were non-randomly selected. These regions were Ararat, Gegharkunik and Syunik . Since a prime motivation of the research is to study the potential of the NFRE to alleviate rural poverty, selection criteria included poverty levels and the level of development of the RNFE. |
| Keywords: | Enterprise development, rural-non-farm economy, poverty, transition economies |
| JEL: | O P |
| Date: | 2005–10–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0510020&r=cwa |
| By: | Junior Davis (Natural Resources Institute); Dirk Bezemer (University of Groningen); Monica Janowski (Natural Resources Institute); Tiago Wandschneider (Natural Resources Institute) |
| Abstract: | The aims of this study are to improve understanding of the dynamics of the rural non-farm economy in providing employment and income diversification opportunities in Armenia, Georgia and Romania. The study aims to focus on improving the well-being and livelihoods of the rural population, through developing their capacity to access resources and actively participate in non-farm rural enterprise and employment opportunities. We place emphasis on the diversity and diversification of income sources in the face of vulnerability to shocks and stresses - particularly on the part of the poorest members of society; and provide an in-depth analysis of the context (socio-cultural, economic, agronomic) in which non-farm rural livelihood options are currently pursued and in which new options can be developed. |
| Keywords: | rural non-farm economy, poverty, diversity, non-agricultural growth, transition economies, Central Asia, Balkans |
| JEL: | O P |
| Date: | 2005–10–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0510018&r=cwa |
| By: | Deepak Kumar (ICFAI University Press , Hyderabad,India) |
| Abstract: | Gujarat was the first state in India which introduced the smart card license system in 1999. It was the first place in the world which introduced this innovative system and, thus, its implementation was a real challenge. As of now, Gujarat Government has issued 5 million smart card driving licenses to its people. This card is basically a plastic card having ISO 7810 certification and integrated circuit,capable of storing and verifying information according to its programming. To avoid corruption and mismanagement of driving licence, in the year 1999,Gujarat State Government launched the smart card driving license system, which has become the success story for dif ferent states of India and overseas countries such as USA. |
| Keywords: | Transport, Infrastructure,Urban |
| JEL: | R |
| Date: | 2005–10–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0510003&r=cwa |
| By: | Zulfiqar Hyder (State Bank of Pakistan); Sardar Shah (State Bank of Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the extent to which the movements in exchange rate affect domestic wholesale and consumer prices in Pakistan by analyzing data from January 1988 to September 2003. The empirical model is a recursive VAR, suggested by McCarthy (2000), incorporating a distribution chain of pricing. Impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to measure the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices. The major findings of this paper are: (1) the exchange rate movements have only a moderate effect on domestic prices, i.e., exchange rate pass-through is low; (2) the exchange rate pass-through is more stronger in wholesale price index (WPI) relative to consumers price index (CPI); (3) the impact of pass-through on domestic prices spreads over 12 months, however, the effect is mostly felt in the first four months; (4) the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices have further weakened after the free float of Rupee/Dollar parity in July 2000; (5) within the WPI commodity groups, the exchange rate pass- through is stronger in ‘Fuel & Lighting’ and ‘Manufactures’ groups while in the case of CPI, pass-through is more pronounced in ‘Transport & Communication’ and ‘Fuel & Lighting’ group. Furthermore, the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices is much stronger in higher inflationary environment during Jan-88 to Dec-97 relative to lower inflationary environment down the road. |
| Keywords: | Exchange Rate Pass-through, Domestic Prices, Impulse Response Function, Variance Decomposition |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2005–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0510021&r=cwa |
| By: | Maryanchyk Ivan |
| Abstract: | This paper applies the gravity theory to model Ukrainian trade patterns. I estimate two specifications — Global and Ukrainian. The former is used to forecast the optimal trade volumes and compare with the actual. The latter helps analyzing factors affecting Ukrainian trade. Ukraine explored its trade potential with the EU. On the other hand, having the low potential in 1995, the country achieved even better results in this direction in 2002. Trade with CIS deteriorated despite vast possibilities predicted by the model. Another unexplored opportunity is large economies of G7, Asia, and Americas. Ukraine could benefit liberalizing trade relations with Russia (to gain in trade and reach the potential) and with EU (to safeguard achieved results). Accession to the WTO might help in exploring the potential with G7 and other big economies. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, international trade, gravity. |
| JEL: | F12 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2005–10–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:05-14e&r=cwa |