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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Bruinshoofd,Allard; Candelon,Bertrand; Raabe,Katharina (METEOR) |
| Abstract: | We show that, complementary to trade and financial linkages, the strength of the bankingsector helps explain the transmission of currency crises. Specifically, we demonstrate thatthe Mexican, Thai, and Russian crises predominantly spread to countries with weaknesses intheir banking sectors. At the same time, the role of banking sector strength varies per crisis;where the Mexican crisis spread to countries with a strong presence of foreign banks indomestic credit provision, the Thai crisis disproportionately contaminated countries wherethe banking sector was most sensitive to currency realignments, wh ile the Russian crisisspread to countries with inefficiencies in the banking sector. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomics ; |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:umamet:2005023&r=cwa |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, METU); Fatma Bircan |
| Abstract: | There is an excess demand for university education in Turkey. Highly competitive university entrance examination which rations the available places at university programs is very central to the lives of young people. In order to increase the chances of success of their children in the university entrance examination parents spend large sums of money on private tutoring (dersane) of their children. In this study, we investigate the factors that determine participation in private tutoring and the effect of private tutoring on getting placed at a university program. We further examine the impact of private tutoring on the scores of the applicants in the university entrance examination. The results indicate that controlling for other factors those students who receive private tutoring perform better in the university entrance examination. |
| Keywords: | Private Tutoring, University Entrance Examination Achievement, Turkey |
| JEL: | I2 J10 |
| Date: | 2005–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:0504&r=cwa |
| By: | Nil Demet Güngör; Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this article is to provide new evidence on the characteristics of Turkish professionals residing overseas and the factors that are important in their decision to return home or work abroad. With this aim, we present the results of a survey conducted in 2002, which deals with the return intentions of university-educated Turkish professionals residing abroad. The article thus presents information that will be useful to policymakers in Turkey and other developing countries with similar experiences. The findings indicate that many of the university-educated expatriates are those who stayed abroad to work after completing their studies, rather than professionals with work experience in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Skilled migration, brain drain, return intentions, higher education, Turkey |
| JEL: | J24 |
| Date: | 2005–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:0502&r=cwa |
| By: | Nil Demet Güngör; Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | The study estimates an empirical model of return intentions using a dataset compiled from an internet survey of Turkish professionals and Turkish students residing abroad. In the migration literature, wage differentials are often cited as an important factor explaining skilled migration. The findings of the study suggest, however, that other factors are also important in explaining the non-return of Turkish professionals. Economic instability in Turkey is found to be an important push factor, while work experience in Turkey also increases non-return. In the student sample, higher salaries offered in the host country and lifestyle preferences, including a more organized environment in the host country, increase the probability of not-returning. For both groups, the analysis also points to the importance of prior intentions and the role of the family in the decision to return to Turkey or stay overseas. |
| Keywords: | Skilled migration, brain drain, return intentions, higher education, Turkey |
| JEL: | J24 |
| Date: | 2005–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:0501&r=cwa |
| By: | Elobeid, Amani; Beghin, John C. |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of trade liberalization, removal of production subsidies, and elimination of consumption distortions in world sugar markets using a partial-equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. The removal of trade distortions alone induces a 27% price increase while the removal of all trade and production distortions induces a 48% increase by 2011/12 relative to the baseline. Aggregate trade expands moderately, but location of production and trade patterns change substantially. Protectionist OECD countries (the EU, Japan, the US) experience an import expansion or export reduction and significant contraction in production in unfettered markets. Competitive producers in both OECD countries (Australia) and non-OECD countries (Brazil, Cuba), and even some protected producers (Indonesia, Turkey), expand production when all distortions are removed. Consumption distortions have marginal impacts on world markets and location of production. We discuss the significance of these results in the context of mounting pressures to increase market access in highly protected OECD countries and the impact on non-OECD countries. |
| Keywords: | agricultural policy, Doha, domestic subsidies, sugar, trade liberalization, WTO. |
| Date: | 2005–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:12419&r=cwa |
| By: | Aydin Celen (Competition Authority, Turkey); Tarkan Erdogan (Competition Authority, Turkey); Tarkan Erdogan (Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | Fast moving consumer goods (FMCGs) constitute a large part of consumers' budget in all countries. The retail sector for FMCGs in Turkey is in the process of a drastic transformation. New, "modern" retail formats, like chain stores and hyper/supermarkets, have rapidly diffused in almost all major urban areas, and increased their market share at the expense of traditional formats (grocery shops, green groceries, etc.) in the last couple of decades. This rapid transformation has raised concerns about competitive conditions in the sector. This study is aimed at to shed light on competitive conditions prevailing in the FMCGs retail trade sector in Turkey. We analyze how the structure of the market is being transformed in recent years by new retail formats. The study is focused on the analysis of competitive dynamics (inter-firm rivalry, pricing and non-price policies, barriers to entry, regulatory conditions, etc.) within the sector, and draws lessons for competition policy. |
| Keywords: | FMCG, competition policy, Turkey |
| JEL: | L4 L81 |
| Date: | 2005–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:0503&r=cwa |
| By: | Broadberry, Stephen N; Gupta, Bishnupriya |
| Abstract: | The growth of cotton textile imports into Britain from India opened up new opportunities for import substitution as the new cloths, patterns and designs became increasingly fashionable. However, high silver wages in Britain as a result of high productivity in other tradable goods and services, meant that British producers of cotton textiles could not use labour-intensive Indian production methods. The growth in British labour productivity that resulted from the search for labour-saving technological progress meant that unit labour costs became lower than in India despite the much higher wages in Britain. However, the full effects of the rise in British productivity were delayed until after the Napoleonic Wars by increasing wage and raw cotton costs before supply adjusted to the major increase in demand for inputs. On balance, the effects of British protective measures were neutral. |
| Keywords: | competitive advantage; cotton; India; Lancashire; unit labour costs |
| JEL: | N60 N70 O14 O31 |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5183&r=cwa |
| By: | Petia Topalova |
| Abstract: | Although it is commonly believed that trade liberalization results in higher GDP, little is known about its effects on poverty and inequality. This paper uses the sharp trade liberalization in India in 1991, spurred to a large extent by external factors, to measure the causal impact of trade liberalization on poverty and inequality in districts in India. Variation in pre-liberalization industrial composition across districts in India and the variation in the degree of liberalization across industries allow for a difference-in-difference approach, establishing whether certain areas benefited more from, or bore a disproportionate share of the burden of liberalization. In rural districts where industries more exposed to liberalization were concentrated, poverty incidence and depth decreased by less as a result of trade liberalization, a setback of about 15 percent of India's progress in poverty reduction over the 1990s. The results are robust to pre-reform trends, convergence and time-varying effects of initial district-specific characteristics. Inequality was unaffected in the sample of all Indian states in both urban and rural areas. The findings are related to the extremely limited mobility of factors across regions and industries in India. The findings, consistent with a specific factors model of trade, suggest that to minimize the social costs of inequality, additional policies may be needed to redistribute some of the gains of liberalization from winners to those who do not benefit as much. |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11614&r=cwa |
| By: | Besley, Timothy; Pande, Rohini; Rao, Vijayendra |
| Abstract: | This paper uses household data from India to examine the economic and social status of village politicians, and how individual and village characteristics affect politician behaviour while in office. Education increases the chances of selection to public office and reduces the odds that a politician uses political power opportunistically. In contrast, land ownership and political connections enable selection but do not affect politician opportunism. At the village level, changes in the identity of the politically dominant group alter the group allocation of resources but not politician opportunism. Improved information flows in the village, however, reduce opportunism and improve resource allocation. |
| Keywords: | decentralization; India; political economy; public provision of private goods |
| JEL: | H11 H42 O12 O20 |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5201&r=cwa |
| By: | G. LANINE; R. VANDER VENNET |
| Abstract: | The Russian banking sector experienced considerable turmoil in the late 1990s, especially around the Russian banking crisis in 1998. The question is what types of banks are vulnerable to shocks and whether or not bank-specific characteristics can be used to predict vulnerability to failures. In this study we employ a parametric logit model and a nonparametric trait recognition approach to predict failures among Russian commercial banks. We test the predictive power of both models based on their prediction accuracy using holdout samples. Both models performed better than the benchmark; the trait recognition approach outperformed logit in both the original and the holdout samples. As expected liquidity plays an important role in bank failure prediction, but also asset quality and capital adequacy turn out to be important determinants of failure. |
| Keywords: | Russian banks, bank failure prediction, logit model, trait recognition, forecasting accuracy |
| JEL: | C25 G21 G33 |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:05/329&r=cwa |
| By: | Olga Kupets (National University "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy", Kiev and IZA Bonn) |
| Abstract: | In recent years there has been much policy discussion of the impact of unemployment benefits and other factors on unemployment duration in developed and transition countries. This paper presents first evidence on the determinants of unemployment duration in Ukraine. Using individual-level data from the first wave of the Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (ULMS -2003), which cover the period 1997-2003, we find no significant effect of benefit receipt on exits from unemployment. However, our survival analysis confirms the hypothesis that income from casual activities or subsidiary farming has strong disincentive effect on the hazard of re-employment in Ukraine. The results also indicate that individual’s age, marital status and gender, the level of education and place of residence are significantly related to the total time spent out of work. The estimates of the baseline hazard parameters do not suggest any marked negative duration dependence. |
| Keywords: | unemployment duration, casual work, transition countries, semiparametric duration analysis |
| JEL: | J64 J68 P23 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1738&r=cwa |
| By: | Arzhenovsky Sergey |
| Abstract: | Factors impacting the initiation and termination of smoking, using Cox's proportional hazard model as the econometric tool, on the basis of RLMS and Goskomstat data on tobacco prices, are being investigated in this paper. The model to explain the amount of consumed cigarettes and the composite model with dependence between quitting and tobacco consumption are constructed. It is shown that the price for cigarettes remains the key factor for the beginning and quitting of smoking; the asymmetric influence of price by sorts of cigarettes is being revealed. The addictive character of cigarettes consumption has been confirmed. Gender and age peculiarities of tobacco products consumption have been revealed, especially for teenagers. Opportunities to reduce smoking have been found out through propagation of a healthy way of life. |
| Keywords: | Russia, duration analysis, smoking, hazard model, consumption habits, amount of cigarettes smoked |
| JEL: | C41 D12 I12 |
| Date: | 2005–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:05-12e&r=cwa |
| By: | Denis Kadochnikov (Leontief Center - International Center for Social & Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | The research presented in this paper is undertaken in response to the debate on capital flight from Russia. This debate usually involves discussion of its determinants but misses the question of its ultimate effects on the economy. Lack of understanding of the economic nature of capital flight and of its institutional context leads to numerous calls for a policy response, such as stricter capital controls, which are not grounded in any theory or empirical studies, but at the same time are not opposed on theoretical grounds, with only ideological or technical arguments employed at the very best. The purpose of the paper is to examine capital flight from Russia within the institutional environment in which it occurs and to establish whether this capital flight has detrimental effect on the economy. New Institutional Economics approach is adopted to argue that in Russia’s case capital flight might be considered not just a consequence, as some researchers have argued earlier, but also an optimal solution to the institutional deficiencies with its economic role being neutral. To support the validity of this claim modified Granger non-causality test is used to determine whether capital flight dynamics have a causal effect on that of the interest rate differential and vice versa, that is to test whether price mechanism is not working. Rethinking the nature and the economic impact of capital flight allows postulating that within the existing institutional context the observed capital flight is a normal economic process which per se does not require any policy response and restricting capital flight by imposing capital controls cannot be an element of a pro-growth policy, as it would instead lead to boom-burst sort of growth. |
| Keywords: | Russia, Capital Flight, New Institutional Economics |
| JEL: | E61 F21 G18 O16 O52 |
| Date: | 2005–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0509007&r=cwa |
| By: | Albrecht Kauffmann |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the structural change in Russia during the transition from the planned to a market economy. With regard to the famous three sector hypothesis, broad economic sectors were formed as required by this theory. The computation of their shares at GNP at market prices using Input-Output tables, and the adjustment of results from distortions, generated as side effects of tax avoidance practices, shows results that clearly reject claims that Russia would be on the road to a post-industrial service economy. Instead, at least until 2001, a tendency of "primarisation" could be observed, that presents Russia closer to less-developed countries. |
| Keywords: | Russian Federation; Deindustrialisation; Natural Resources; Conversion |
| JEL: | O14 O39 P28 H26 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:vwldis:80&r=cwa |
| By: | Kirby Faciane |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the multinational operations of the largest Russian business units within major economic sectors and analyzes the following: the driving forces behind the Russian companies’ internationalization; international locations of Russian capital outflow; dominant industries within Russian international corporate activities; and the main operational modes. |
| Keywords: | russia; russian investment; foreign direct investment; international corporate investment; international investment; capital budgeting; capital spending; market expenditures; kirby faciane; investment model; investment horizon; banking sector; banking investments |
| JEL: | G G0 G1 G00 G10 G12 G11 G15 G19 G20 G29 G24 G3 G30 G39 G31 G32 E E0 E1 |
| Date: | 2005–09–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0509016&r=cwa |
| By: | Kirby Faciane |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the multinational operations of the largest Russian business units within major economic sectors and analyzes the following: the driving forces behind the Russian companies’ internationalization; international locations of Russian capital outflow; dominant industries within Russian international corporate activities; and the main operational modes. |
| Keywords: | oil; gas; gasoline; petrol; petroleum; russia; russian investment; foreign direct investment; international corporate investment; international investment; capital budgeting; capital spending; market expenditures; kirby faciane; investment model; investment horizon; oil sector; oil and gas investments; gasoline; import; imports; exports; export; crude oil; Yukos; |
| JEL: | G G0 G1 G00 G10 G12 G11 G15 G19 G20 G29 G24 G3 G30 G39 G31 G32 E E0 E1 |
| Date: | 2005–09–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0509017&r=cwa |
| By: | Kirby Faciane |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the multinational operations of the largest Russian business units within major economic sectors and analyzes the following: the driving forces behind the Russian companies’ internationalization; international locations of Russian capital outflow; dominant industries within Russian international corporate activities; and the main operational modes. |
| Keywords: | russia; russian investment; foreign direct investment; international corporate investment; international investment; capital budgeting; capital spending; market expenditures; kirby faciane; investment model; investment horizon; commodities sector; industrial commodity investments; commodities; industrial investments |
| JEL: | G G0 G1 G00 G10 G12 G11 G15 G19 G20 G29 G24 G3 G30 G39 G31 G32 E E0 E1 |
| Date: | 2005–09–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0509015&r=cwa |
| By: | Nour, Samia Satti O. M. (United Nations University, Institute for New Technologies) |
| Abstract: | This paper employs both descriptive and comparative approaches to discuss science and technology (S&T) development in Arab countries in the Gulf and Mediterranean regions. Throughout the paper we use the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s definition of S&T indicators (OECD, 1997). From this research we find that neither the Gulf nor the Mediterranean countries investigated possess sufficient human or financial resources to promote S&T performance. We show that the low level of resources devoted to S&T development together with inadequate economic structures mean that the Gulf and Mediterranean Arab countries lag behind the world’s advanced and leading developing countries in terms of S&T input and output indicators. In both regions, most of the research, development and S&T activities occur within public and academic sectors, with only a very small contribution from the private sector. When comparing S&T indicators between the two Arab regions we find that despite the high standard of economic development in the Gulf countries, as measured by gross domestic product per capita and the human development index, it is the Mediterranean countries that perform better in most of the S&T input and output indicators. Furthermore, we show that there is very limited scientific cooperation within and between the Gulf and Mediterranean countries as well as between them and other Arab countries. In contrast, three Arab countries from the Mediterranean region – Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia – show active scientific cooperation with the international community, especially the OECD and France in particular. This implies that social proximity (sharing similar religion, language, culture, etc.) does not help regional scientific cooperation within the Arab world; it is geographical proximity to Europe that motivates these countries’ international scientific cooperation |
| Keywords: | S&T indicators, input-output indicators, Arab Gulf countries, Arab Mediterranean countries. |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unuint:200503&r=cwa |
| By: | Hartmut Lehmann (University of Bologna); Norberto Pignatti (University of Bologna); Jonathan Wadsworth (University of London) |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of economic transition on the pattern and costs of worker displacement in Ukraine, using the Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (ULMS) for the years 1992 to 2002. Displacement rates in the Ukrainian labor market average between 3.4 and 4.8 percent of employment, roughly in line with levels typically observed in several Western economies, but considerably larger than in Russia. The characteristics of displaced workers are similar to those displaced in the West, in so far as displacement is concentrated on the less skilled. Around one third of displaced workers find re-employment immediately while the majority continues into long-term non- employment. The wage costs of displacement for the sub-sample of displaced workers do not seem to be large. The main cost for displaced workers in Ukraine consists in the extremely long non- employment spell that the average worker experiences after layoff. |
| Keywords: | displaced workers, labor markets in transition, Ukraine |
| JEL: | J64 J65 P50 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:05-122&r=cwa |