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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Rana Hasan (Asian Development Bank); Devashish Mitra (Department of Economics, Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University); K.V. Ramaswamy (IGIDR) |
| Abstract: | This paper finds a positive impact of trade liberalization on labor-demand elasticities in the Indian manufacturing sector using industry-level data disaggregated by states. These elasticities turn out to be negatively related to protection levels that vary across industries and over time. Furthermore, we find that these elasticities are higher for Indian states with flexible labor regulations where they are also impacted more by trade reforms. Finally, we find that after the reforms, volatility in productivity and output gets translated into larger wage and employment volatility, theoretically a possible consequence of larger labor-demand elasticities. |
| Date: | 2003–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewc:wpaper:wp59&r=cwa |
| By: | Chakravarty Sujoy; Dand Sejal A |
| Abstract: | In this study we explore causes of the widespread food insecurity that prevails in India. It has been observed that even though the proportion of the malnourished fell by about 1 percent (FAO, 2002) through the nineties in India, their absolute number increased by about 18 million. Thus the problem of food insecurity in India is not of general systemic failure that arises due to a supply shortage. It is in fact more a problem where certain sectors (mainly the rural agrarian population and the urban informal sector) suffer from a shortage of food in a general climate of increasing production. Delving deeper, we observe that the main determinants of food insecurity in India today are the shrinking of agrarian and informal sector incomes and failures (both due to policy framing as well as implementation) of support led measures to combat poverty. The latter include the near breakdown of the targeted public distribution system (TPDS) in most regions of the country. This study uses existing scholarly work in the area as well as conventional data sources in order to show the extent of food insecurity in India today and the logic of the different patterns of its causality. |
| Date: | 2005–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2005-04-01&r=cwa |
| By: | Kaul Asha; Kulkarni Vaibhavi |
| Abstract: | Research shows that electronic communication has affected written language significantly. The increasing importance of use of Computer Mediated Communication (CMC) in organizations has multiple implications for use of written language at workplace. This study focuses on the influence of gender and politeness on writing style in CMC, specifically work related emails, in the Indian context. Grice’s Cooperative Principle (CP) and Leech’s maxims of Politeness have been used to analyze samples of 494 work related emails written by both men and women. On the basis of this analysis, an attempt has been made to study the relationship between gender, politeness and email content. On the basis of the data, it is concluded that: 1. Different politeness maxims across genders are used in work related emails. 2. Politeness maxims are used in clusters. 3. Variations in use of politeness maxims across genders are highest in directives. 4. Violations of politeness maxims are higher in men than in women. |
| Date: | 2005–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:2005-04-02&r=cwa |
| By: | Aradhana Aggarwal (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela) |
| Abstract: | This paper quantitatively assesses likely changes in market access opportunities for Indian exports owing to tariff reductions by the USA. The study identifies particular products for India at the ISIC 4-digit level of disaggregation, which could be considered tariff sensitive. Regression analysis of the relationship between MFN tariff rates and India's exports to the US was used to assess in quantitative terms the likely impact of tariff reduction that may be agreed in the Doha Round. This analysis suggests that tariff cuts are not expected to benefit India's exports to the US in a major way. With the full implementation of the Chairman's formula for tariff cuts, increase in India's exports to the US would amount to 1.2 or 0.6 depending on the value of the B coefficient in theChairman's formula. These findings are in all likelihood substantially due to the tariff diversion effect of NAFTA preferences in favour of suppliers in Mexico, which is a competing country in many traditional items. It is expected that reduction of MFN tariff would alleviate the trade diversion effect of the NAFTA.The study has also attempted to decompose changes in India's total exports due to tariff reductions in the US into the competitive and market effects. The analysis suggests that the increase in India's exports would be mainly due to the competitive effect. This leads the author to conclude that it is crucial for India to improve its competitiveness vis-a-vis its competitors in different markets. |
| Date: | 2004–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:icrier:120&r=cwa |
| By: | Arvind Virmani (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela; Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela) |
| Abstract: | Economic policy and policy reform over the last few decades has been motivated by the need to accelerate growth or equivalently to reverse a decline in growth rate. The economic literature on the determinants of growth has burgeoned and disagreement has followed consensus on the policy prescriptions that need to befollowed to achieve this purpose. Sometimes the disagreement is exaggerated by the titans of the profession, so as to distinguish themselves from those constituting the conventional wisdom. The present paper moves the focus from this "macro"debate to concrete issues of policy formulation and policy change and explores the links between policy and institutions in the context of economic reforms. Thus successful introduction of new policies may require new institutions and the degree of success in changing policies may depend on the degree to which existing institutions are modified. The literature on Institutions and Development has dealt with questions of grand design such as the Constitution, the rule of law (personal safety), property rights and informal rules embodied in culture. These are matters that happen on a timescale of a quarter/half century or more and can be thought of as the "superstructure" of institutions. The quantitative work on institutions and growth has explored the linkage between these institutional issues and economic growth. In the current paper we focus on what may be called the "microstructure" of institutions, a smaller scale at which change can occur over a time frame of decades (or half decades). Among the issues that a rise in this context are how changing institutions requirechanges in policies. |
| Keywords: | Economic Reforms, India, Policy, Institutions |
| JEL: | O1 P41 |
| Date: | 2004–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:icrier:121&r=cwa |
| By: | Arvind Virmani (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela) |
| Abstract: | Paper reviews India's growth performance since independence. Phrases suchas "Hindu Rate of Growth," sometimes make a telling comment and expose obscureeconomic data to a wider audience, but they can just as readily obscure reality byfocussing attention on the wrong issue. There is nothing in the literature that suggeststhat this period of the "Hindu Rate of Growth" had anything to do with Hinduism per se.This paper shows that had a lot to do with the Indian version of Socialism. The 30-yearperiod from 1950-51 to 1979-80 is therefore better described as the "Indian-socialist" orperhaps "Hindu-socialist" period. The paper also identifies a truly disastrous 15-yearsub-period within this Indian-socialist period, the negative lessons of which have still notbeen fully understood or absorbed by academics, policy makers and political parties.One of the innovations in this paper is to take explicit account of rainfallvariations that play a very important role in the Indian economy. This allows us todetermine whether the Indian economy has become less dependent on the monsoons(`drought proof'). It also allows a statistically more accurate determination of thedifferent phases of Indian economic growth. The paper confirms that, what the authorhas earlier dubbed, the "Bharatiya Rate of Growth" phase began around 1980-81. Thepaper fills out the sector details of the various phases of development and the role thatgovernment and government monopoly has played in different sectors. The paper alsoexplores some of the growth puzzles in our economic history. |
| Keywords: | Indian Economy, Economic Growth, Development, Phases of Growth,Socialism, Government Monopoly, Bharatiya Rate of Growth |
| JEL: | N1 O1 O4 O5 P0 |
| Date: | 2004–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:icrier:122&r=cwa |
| By: | Ahuja, Rajeev (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela) |
| Abstract: | Community based health insurance (CBHI) is more suited than alternate arrangements to providing health insurance to the low-income people living in developing countries. The universal health insurance scheme, launched recently by the Prime Minister of India, is only one of the forms that CBHI can take. While analysing the proposed scheme, we examine alternate forms of CBHI schemes prevalent in the country.The development of private health insurance market in the country will not leave the poor unaffected. Insurance sector reform can affect the poor through its effect on the provision of health services (i.e., cost, quality and access) used by the low-income people as well as through its access to financing of health care. In this paper we also explore how insurance sector reforms alter health insurance prospects facing the poor in India, and what changes on the health front affecting the poor have happened or are likely to happen as a result of insurance sector reforms. We conclude that in diverse settings of India all forms of CBHI have a role to play and therefore need to be encouraged by the government through appropriate interventions. Formal insurance providers can also be reigned to serve low-in comepopulation. At the same time, developments in formal health insurance market need to be guided so as to minimise cost escalation of health care provision |
| Keywords: | Health Insurance; Low-income people; poverty; risk and insurance; insurance schemes |
| JEL: | I1 I3 G1 |
| Date: | 2004–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:icrier:123&r=cwa |
| By: | Batra, Amit (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela) |
| Date: | 2004–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:icrier:124&r=cwa |
| By: | C.Veeramani (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela); B.N.Goldar (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Rela) |
| Keywords: | Investment climate, Total factor productivity, manufacturing, Indian states |
| JEL: | L D L |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:icrier:127&r=cwa |
| By: | Upinder Sawhney (Punjab University) |
| Abstract: | The importance and need for sub-national fiscal reforms is all too obvious in India where the states are facing severe fiscal imbalances since the beginning of the nineties. A decade of political strife in the eighties, followed by populist economic policies in the nineties led to a massive fiscal deterioration in Punjab, hampering its overall growth process. The Fiscal Reform Programme in the state was initiated in 1999 with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of India and the Punjab government. This was followed by the setting up of various committees and commissions to look into the problems of revenue mobilisation, expenditure management, public enterprises and the power sector. The more recent effort towards fiscal consolidation has been the enactment of Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003. The assessment of the entire fiscal reform effort of the state reveals that the Punjab government is seized of the seriousness of the situation, admits the gravity of consequences but lacks the grit and determination to implement certain hard decisions for fiscal restructuring. The government is very much caught up in the web of populist policies and succumbs readily to political pressure against certain unpopular decisions for attaining fiscal stability. The success of the fiscal reform programme depends only on the administrative competence and political will of the government towards achieving longterm fiscal consolidation and restoration of fiscal balances in the state. |
| Date: | 2005–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:nipfwp:26&r=cwa |
| By: | murat cokgezen (marmara university, department of economics) |
| Abstract: | This is the first study evaluating publication performances of economists and economics departments in Turkey. Findings show wide gaps between the Top-Five economics departments and economists affiliated to these universities and the others. Publication patterns of Turkish economists are the same with their counterparts living in the rest of the world. |
| Keywords: | performance, ranking, economists, economics departments, Turkey |
| JEL: | A |
| Date: | 2005–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0503007&r=cwa |
| By: | Alpay Filiztekin (Sabanci University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Turkish manufacturing employment and wages using data for a panel of manufacturing industries over the period 1981-1999. The net effect of depreciations are found to be negative for both employment and wages, though the effects on wages are more pronounced. The negative effect of high dependency of Turkish manufacturing industries on foreign inputs overcomes the positive effect of depreciations on competitiveness. |
| Keywords: | exchange rates, labor market, manufacturing, Turkey |
| JEL: | F3 F4 |
| Date: | 2005–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0501004&r=cwa |
| By: | Ferda Halicioglu (The University of Greenwich, London) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the determinants of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into Turkey from four major geographical regions and at aggregate level with a special emphasis on Turkey’s application to the European Union (EU) to become a full member in 1987. In contrast to previous studies this paper divides the inward FDI flows into Turkey from four major trading blocks and estimates separate FDI function for each region in addition to the aggregate FDI function. It is found that Turkey has experienced both “investment creation and diversion” effects as a result of her membership application to the EU in addition to the market size hypothesis. This paper also compares and contrasts the short and long run FDI functions of Turkey by the source of geographical regions and at aggregate level and draws conclusions from there. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment, investment creation and diversion, Turkey and the EU, economic integration. |
| JEL: | F15 F21 C32 |
| Date: | 2005–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0503004&r=cwa |
| By: | Ferda Halicioglu (The University of Greenwich, London) |
| Abstract: | This study empirically examines aggregate tourism demand function for Turkey using the time series data for the period 1960-2002. The total tourist arrivals into Turkey are related to world income, relative prices and transportation cost. We employ bounds testing cointegration procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) to compute the short and long-run elasticities of income, price, and transportation cost variables. We also implement CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests on the aggregate tourism demand function. The empirical results indicate that income is the most significant variable in explaining the total tourist arrivals to Turkey and there exists a stable tourism demand function. |
| JEL: | F1 F2 |
| Date: | 2005–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0503005&r=cwa |
| By: | Halicioglu Ferda |
| Abstract: | This study utilizes the new macroeconomic theory and multivariate cointegration analysis in search of the effects of aggregate defense spending on aggregate output in Turkey. This study provides the empirical evidence that there is a strong positive long-run relationship between aggregate defense spending and aggregate output in Turkey over the estimation period. The findings of this study contradict the previous empirical results on the same topic obtained from the neoclassical production function and traditional regression analysis. JEL Classification: E69; E60; H50. |
| Keywords: | Aggregate defense spending; Aggregate output; Cointegration analysis, Turkey |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2005–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0503009&r=cwa |
| By: | Ferda Halicioglu (The University of Greenwich, London) |
| Abstract: | This study is concerned with the components of the total seigniorage revenues that have been collected by the Turkish governments during the years 1970-1997. Traditionally, a government can increase the monetary base in order to finance its expenditures partially. This form of monetary finance is related to active seigniorage revenues. On the other hand, as real economic growth takes place, a government can also benefit from this process as a result of an increase in demand for the real money balances which is termed as passive seignoirage revenues. This paper presents empirically that Turkish governments have benefited from both types of seignoirage revenues in order to finance its budget deficits during the years 1970-1997 but this policy seems to lose its effectiveness in the recent years due to the financial liberalization. |
| Keywords: | Seigniorage, Monetary, Policies, Budget Deficits, Turkey |
| JEL: | E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2005–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0503010&r=cwa |
| By: | Ferda Halicioglu (The University of Greenwich, London) |
| Abstract: | The existing economic literature on the black economy and its measurable size is mainly based on industrialized western countries. This paper, however, tries to estimate the size of the black economy empirically in the case of a developing country: Turkey. According to the monetary approach that this paper has also adopted, the size of the black economy in Turkey has an ever increasing trend and reached nearly 10% of its GNP in 1997. Moreover, this paper also suggests that there is further scope for the black economy in Turkey since the tax burden is relatively low. And currently, the Turkish government is trying to increase taxes, which may lead to a further expansion in the size of the black economy in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | black economy, monetary policy, Turkey |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2005–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0503011&r=cwa |
| By: | Ferda Halicioglu (the University of Greenwich, London) |
| Abstract: | This study prsents new empirical evidence on the relationship between the level of of economic growth and defense expenditures in the case of Turkey for the period of 1950-2002. On using new macroeconomic and multivariate cointegration procedure, this study demonstrates empirically that there exists apositive relationship between aggregate defense spending and aggregate output in Turkey. In addition, the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests confirm the stability of aggregateb output function. The results obtained from this study are, by and large, in line with the previous studies concerning Turkey. |
| Keywords: | aggregate output, aggregate defense spending, cointegration, stability tests, Turkey |
| JEL: | E69 E60 H50 |
| Date: | 2005–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0504011&r=cwa |
| By: | Julien Reynaud (TEAM); Rofikoh Rokhim |
| Abstract: | Drawing together the concepts of inefficiency and banking crisis is directly inspired by business cycles theory where a crisis is the turning point from which the market/economy is recovering. If inefficiency plays a role in the occurrence of banking crisis, the post-crisis period should be the time for recovering efficiency. Moreover, traditional banking theory predicts that the crisis should eliminate bad banks from the system, leading to a more efficient banking sector. We tested this hypothesis on the 1994 Turkish and 1997 Indonesian banking crises using stochastic cost frontier analysis. Our results show an interesting pattern, opposed to what theory predicts : we find that inefficiency increase after the crises in both banking sectors. |
| Keywords: | Banking crisis, efficiency, Indonesia, Turkey. |
| JEL: | G14 G21 G28 G34 |
| Date: | 2005–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:wpsorb:bla05007&r=cwa |
| By: | Allard Bruinshoofd; Bertrand Candelon; Katharina Raabe |
| Abstract: | We show that, complementary to trade and financial linkages, the strength of the bankingsector helps explain the transmission of currency crises. Specifically, we demonstrate that the Mexican, Thai, and Russian crises predominantly spread to countries with weaknesses in their banking sectors. At the same time, the role of banking sector strength varies per crisis; where the Mexican crisis spread to countries with a strong presence of foreign banks in domestic credit provision, the Thai crisis disproportionately contaminated countries where the banking sector was most sensitive to currency realignments, while the Russian crisis spread to countries with inefficiencies in the banking sector. |
| Keywords: | Banking Sector Strength; Currency Crisis; Transmission Channels. |
| JEL: | F30 F32 F34 |
| Date: | 2005–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:032&r=cwa |
| By: | Carletti, Elena (Center for Financial Studies); Hartmann, Philipp (European Central Bank); Spagnolo, Giancarlo (Stockholm School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We model the impact of bank mergers on loan competition, reserve holdings and aggregate liquidity. A merger creates an internal money market that affects reserve holdings and induces financial cost advantages, but also withdraws liquidity from the interbank market. Loan market competition modifies the heterogeneity in the size of banks, thus affecting aggregate liquidity. Mergers among large banks tend to increase aggregate liquidity needs and thus the liquidity provision in monetary operations by the central bank. |
| Keywords: | Credit market competition; bank reserves; internal money market; banking system liquidity |
| JEL: | D43 G21 G28 L13 |
| Date: | 2005–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0182&r=cwa |
| By: | Ali Abdel Gadir Ali |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:api:apiwps:0501&r=cwa |
| By: | Danica Popovic (Faculty of Economics & CLDS) |
| Abstract: | Both before and after the UN trade embargo (1992-1995), the foreign trade policy of FR Yugoslavia has been highly autarchic. Until the disingegraditon of SFRY this resulted in a significant underperformance of the foreign trade sector, while later this turned out to (almost) a complete halt in regular foreign trading. The key for boosting foreign trade lies in implementing institutional reforms and liberalization of foreign trade, even prior to the start of a credible mass privatization. This would be the only way to avoid creation of unproductive private monopolies and might present a way out of permanent recession of the Serbian economy. |
| JEL: | F1 F2 |
| Date: | 2005–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0503006&r=cwa |
| By: | Danica Popovic (Faculty of Economics & CLDS) |
| Abstract: | This study is divided in ten sections. The first three sections are devoted to macroeconomic performance of the economy in the 1990s, followed by the analysis of contemporary foreign trade performance and institutions. The overall and dramatic decay starting from 1990 is registered in all topics abovementioned. The next three sections are devoted to foreign trade policies toward imports, exports and domestic competition. A significant improvement in foreign trade policies is registered, but a need for further liberalization is also stressed upon, particularly regarding the abolition of statistical fee, and further reduction and simplification of tariffs. The implementation of safeguards and antidumping policies has not started as yet, mostly for the lack of professional skills in the area. The highly monopolized structures of Yugoslav economy will presumably stay at least while the privatization procedure is not completed in a substantial degree. As far as regulations of entry and domestic competition are concerned, no serious formal impediments can be traced. Since corruption and cronyism are still widespread (not only in foreign trading but in judicary system etc) informal impediments to competing on domestic market are still present. The last three sections are focused on the political economy of trade policy, problems of market access on the EU and other markets. |
| JEL: | F1 F2 |
| Date: | 2005–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0503007&r=cwa |
| By: | Richard Pomfret (University of Adelaide, School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the choices between regionalism and multilateralism, and the impact of WTO membership on the five Central Asian countries. The two main sections analyse (1) why the large number of regional trade agreements which the Central Asian countries have signed have had little economic impact, and (2) the consequences for the Central Asian countries of Chinese and Russian WTO membership and the consequences of the current Central Asian applicants’ (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) own WTO accession. During the1990s, many regional trade agreements were signed - arrangements both among the Central Asian countries, and between Central Asian countries and their neighbours (Russia to the north, China to the east, and Iran and Turkey to the south) – but not implemented and, although the Kyrgyz Republic became a WTO member in 1998, the Central Asian countries vacillated between pursuing regional and multilateral trade policy avenues. The Central Asian countries’ relationship to the WTO became a more pressing issue after China’s long-running WTO accession negotiations were successfully concluded in December 200 and as Russian negotiations are move forward. At the same time the push towards regionalism is also affected by external events such as the European Union’s deeper integration, symbolized by the appearance of euro banknotes in 2002, and the eastward expansion of the EU in 2004. |
| Keywords: | regionalism; WTO; Central Asia |
| JEL: | P33 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2005–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0502003&r=cwa |