By: |
Jason Barr |
Abstract: |
This paper investigates the determinants of skyscraper building cycles in
Manhattan from 1895 to 2004. We first provide a simple model of the market for
tall buildings. Then we empirically estimate the determinants of the time
series of the number of skyscraper completions and their average heights over
the 110 year period. We estimate the model under the assumption of rational
expectations and myopic expectations, and find that the myopic model provides
a better fit of the data. Furthermore, we find that several local and national
variables determine both the number of completions and the average height of
skyscrapers, including New York City area population; national employment in
finance, insurance and real estate; building costs; access to financing;
property tax rates and zoning regulations. |
Keywords: |
Skyscrapers, building cycles, building height, Manhattan,New York City, myopic expectations, rational expectations |
JEL: |
D84 N61 N62 R11 R33 |
Date: |
2007–04 |
URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:run:wpaper:2007-002&r=cul |