|
on Contract Theory and Applications |
| By: | Grochulski, Borys (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond); Wong, Russell (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond); Zhang, Yuzhe (Texas A&M University) |
| Abstract: | We study the implications of job destruction risk for optimal incentives in a long-term contract with moral hazard. We extend the dynamic principal-agent model of Sannikov (2008) by adding an exogenous Poisson shock that makes the match between the firm and the agent permanently unproductive. In modeling job destruction as an exogenous Poisson shock, we follow the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides search-and-matching literature. The optimal contract shows how job destruction risk is shared between the rm and the agent. Arrival of the job-destruction shock is always bad news for the rm but can be good news for the agent. In particular, under weak conditions, the optimal contract has exactly two regions. If the agent's continuation value is below a threshold, the agent's continuation value experiences a negative jump upon arrival of the job-destruction shock. If the agent's value is above this threshold, however, the jump in the agent's continuation value is positive, i.e., the agent gets rewarded when the match becomes unproductive. This pattern of adjustment of the agent's value at job destruction allows the firm to reduce the costs of effort incentives while the match is productive. In particular, it allows the firm to adjust the drift of the agent's continuation value process so as to decrease the risk of reaching either of the two inefficient agent retirement points. Further, we study the sensitivity of the optimal contract to the arrival rate of job destruction. |
| Keywords: | dynamic moral hazard; job destruction; jump risk |
| JEL: | D86 |
| Date: | 2017–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:17-11&r=cta |
| By: | Herweg, Fabian (University of Bayreuth); Schmidt, Klaus (LMU) |
| Abstract: | The procurement of complex projects is often plagued by large cost overruns. One important reason for these additional costs are flaws in the initial design. If the project is procured with a price-only auction, sellers who spotted some of the flaws have no incentive to reveal them early. Each seller prefers to conceal his information until he is awarded the contract and then renegotiate when he is in a bilateral monopoly position with the buyer. We show that this gives rise to three inefficiencies: inefficient renegotiation, inefficient production and inefficient design. We derive the welfare optimal direct mechanism that implements the efficient allocation at the lowest possible cost to the buyer. The direct mechanism, however, imposes strong assumptions on the buyer\'s prior knowledge of possible flaws and their payoff consequences. Therefore, we also propose an indirect mechanism that implements the same allocation but does not require any such prior knowledge. The optimal direct and indirect mechanisms separate the improvement of the design and the selection of the seller who produces the good. |
| Keywords: | procurement; renegotiation; auctions; design flaws; adaptation costs; behavioral contract theory; |
| JEL: | D44 D82 D83 H57 |
| Date: | 2017–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:47&r=cta |
| By: | Lester, Benjamin (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Shourideh, Ali (Carnegie Mellon University); Venkateswaran, Venky (NYU – Stern School of Business); Zetlin-Jones, Ariel (Carnegie Mellon University) |
| Abstract: | We incorporate a search-theoretic model of imperfect competition into a standard model of asymmetric information with unrestricted contracts. We characterize the unique equilibrium, and use our characterization to explore the interaction between adverse selection, screening, and imperfect competition. We show that the relationship between an agent’s type, the quantity he trades, and the price he pays is jointly determined by the severity of adverse selection and the concentration of market power. Therefore, quantifying the effects of adverse selection requires controlling for market structure. We also show that increasing competition and reducing informational asymmetries can decrease welfare. |
| Keywords: | Adverse Selection; Imperfect Competition; Screening; Transparency; Search Theory |
| JEL: | D41 D42 D43 D82 D83 D86 L13 |
| Date: | 2017–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:17-35&r=cta |
| By: | Schumacher, Heiner; Thysen, Heidi |
| Abstract: | We study an informed-principal framework in which the principal chooses the variables the agent is aware of. The agent fits a causal model connecting these variables to the objective probability distribution. The principal may keep her unaware of some variables so that she incorrectly extrapolates how non-equilibrium actions map into outcomes. This framework captures models of contracting with unaware agents, shrouded attributes, and overconfidence in a unified manner. |
| JEL: | D03 D82 D86 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168085&r=cta |
| By: | Luciano Fanti; Marcella Scrimitore |
| Abstract: | We study whether a quantity or a price contract is chosen at equilibrium by one integrated firm and its retail competitor in a differentiated duopoly. Using a similar vertical structure, Arya et al. (2008) showed that Bertrand competition is more profitable than Cournot competition, which contrasts with conventional wisdom. In this paper, we first demonstrate that such a result is robust to the endogenous determination of the type of contract. Second, by introducing managerial incentives in the model, we find that delegation to managers entails conflicting choices of the strategic variable by the two firms as long as products are sufficiently differentiated, causing non-existence of equilibrium in pure strategies. Significantly high product substitutability reconciles firms’ objectives under delegation, leading unique or multiple equilibria with symmetric types of contracts to arise. |
| Keywords: | Upstream monopolist, outsourcing, price competition, quantity competition, managerial delegation. |
| JEL: | D43 L13 L21 |
| Date: | 2017–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2017/221&r=cta |
| By: | Zbigniew Szkop (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | In his paper the author looks at management of urban green areas in Warsaw as a principal agent problem. In the study the principal is the City Mayor, while the agent is institution responsible for managing street trees in Warsaw (ZOM). While the City Mayor is interested in enhancing the welfare of their constituency, the lower level officers do not have to be preoccupied with the same concerns - they are interested in maximizing their utility subject to some constraints imposed by their bosses. This is a standard hierarchical agency theory model. As the agent’s contract is not incentive compatible, the theoretical "residual claimancy" condition does not hold, and the species composition is different from what it would have been if the principal-agent model implemented was incentive compatible. |
| Keywords: | Principal-agent models, urban trees, ecosystem services |
| JEL: | H49 Q53 Q57 R59 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2017-21&r=cta |
| By: | Yassine Lefouili (Toulouse School of Economics, university of Toulouse Capitole, Toulouse, France.); Joana Pinho (Catolica Porto Business School and CEF.UP, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal.) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the incentives for, and the effects of, collusion in prices between two-sided platforms. We characterize the most profitable sustainable agreement when platforms collude on both sides of the market and when they collude on a single side of the market. Under two-sided collusion, prices on both sides are higher than competitive prices, implying that agents on both sides become worse off as compared to the competitive outcome. An increase in cross-group externalities makes two-sided collusion at a given profit level harder to sustain, and reduces the harm from collusion suffered by the agents on a given side as long as the collusive price on that side is lower than the monopoly price. When platforms collude on a single side of the market, the price on the collusive side is lower (higher) than the competitive price if the magnitude of the cross-group externalities exerted on that side is sufficiently large (small). As a result, one-sided collusion may benefit the agents on the collusive side and harm the agents on the competitive side. |
| Keywords: | collusion; two-sided markets; cross-group externalities. |
| JEL: | L41 D43 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:1705&r=cta |
| By: | Michael Benzaquen; Jean-Philippe Bouchaud |
| Abstract: | We present an extended version of the recently proposed "LLOB" model for the dynamics of latent liquidity in financial markets. By allowing for finite cancellation and deposition rates within a continuous reaction-diffusion setup, we account for finite memory effects on the dynamics of latent order book. We compute in particular the finite memory corrections to the square root impact law, as well as the impact decay and the permanent impact of a meta-order. In addition, we consider the case of a spectrum of cancellation and deposition rates, which allows us to obtain a square root impact law for moderate participation rates, as observed empirically. Our multi-scale framework also provides an alternative solution to the so-called price diffusivity puzzle in the presence of a long-range correlated order flow. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.03734&r=cta |
| By: | Fourberg, Niklas |
| Abstract: | I study consumer switching costs’ effect on firms’ price setting behavior in a 2x2 factorial design experiment with and without communication. For Bertrand duopolies the price level under consumer switching costs is lower vis-à-vis new consumers but not affected towards old consumers. Markets are overall less tacitly collusive which translates into higher incentives to collude explicitly. The results have antitrust implications especially for the focus of cartel screening. |
| JEL: | C7 C9 L13 L41 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168097&r=cta |
| By: | Camille Cornand (Univ Lyon, CNRS, GATE L-SE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France); Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira (BETA-Strasbourg University, 61 avenue de la Forêt Noire - 67085 Strasbourg Cedex, France; and Catolica Lisbon School of Business and Economics.) |
| Abstract: | We propose a unified framework bridging the gap between team and competition issues, in order to reconsider the social value of private and public information in price and quantity games under imperfect and dispersed information, and to compare the corresponding outcomes in terms of equilibrium and social welfare. The informational distortion associated with the competition motive may lead to a negative social value of private information and reverse the perfect information result in favor of strategic substitutability as the source of higher profit and social welfare. |
| Keywords: | beauty contest, competition, coordination, strategic complementarity, anti-coordination, strategic substitutability, price game, quantity game, dispersed information, public information. |
| JEL: | D43 D82 L13 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:1727&r=cta |
| By: | Vladimir Asriyan; William Fuchs; Brett Green |
| Abstract: | We study a dynamic market for durable assets, in which asset owners are privately informed about the quality of their assets and experience occasional productivity shocks that generate gains from trade. An important feature of our environment is that asset buyers must worry not only about the quality of assets they are buying, but also about the prices at which they can re-sell the assets in the future. We show that this interaction between adverse selection and resale concerns generates an inter-temporal coordination problem and gives rise to multiple self-fulfilling equilibria. We find that there is a rich set of sentiment driven equilibria, in which sunspots generate large fluctuations in asset prices, output and welfare, resembling what one may refer to as “bubbles.” |
| Keywords: | Sentiment, adverse selection, liquidity, capital reallocation, bubbles |
| JEL: | D82 E32 G12 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1583&r=cta |
| By: | Helfrich, Magdalena; Herweg, Fabian |
| Abstract: | We provide an explanation for a brand manufacturer's rationale to prohibit retailers to distribute its products over the internet, based on the assumption that a consumer's purchasing decision is distorted by salient thinking. We find that banning online distribution of the branded good aligns retailers’ incentives with the manufacturer's interest to make quality the salient product attribute and allows it to charge a higher wholesale price than under free distribution. |
| JEL: | D43 K21 L42 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168276&r=cta |
| By: | Luciano Fanti; Luca Gori |
| Abstract: | This article studies the effects of R&D investments in product innovation in a game-theoretic two-tier model where an upstream monopolist and downstream duopolists negotiate over the terms of a non-linear two-part tariff vertical contract. |
| Keywords: | Duopoly; Product innovation; Two-part tariffs |
| JEL: | D43 L13 L14 |
| Date: | 2017–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2017/222&r=cta |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Keywords: | Aggregation,Indivisible Labor,Reciprocity,Non-convexities |
| JEL: | E1 J22 J41 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:169418&r=cta |
| By: | Balazs Egert |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship linking investment (capital stock) and structural policies. Using a panel of 32 OECD countries from 1985 to 2013, we show that more stringent product and labour market regulations are associated with less investment (lower capital stock). The paper also sheds light on the existence of non-linear effects of product and labour market regulation on the capital stock. Several alternative testing methods show that the negative influence of product and labour market regulation is considerably stronger at higher levels. The paper uncovers important policy interactions between product and labour market policies. Higher levels of product market regulations (covering state control, barriers to entrepreneurship and barriers to trade and investment) tend to amplify the negative relationships between product and labour market regulations and the capital stock. Equally important is the finding that the rule of law and the quality of (legal) institutions alters the overall impact of regulations on capital deepening: better institutions reduce the negative effect of more stringent product and labour market regulations on the capital stock, possibly through the reduction of uncertainty as regards the protection of property rights. |
| Keywords: | aggregate investment, capital deepening, structural policy, product market regulation, labour market regulation, policy interaction, OECD |
| JEL: | E24 C13 C23 C51 L43 L51 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6415&r=cta |
| By: | Wisdom Akpalu; George Agbenyo; Emmanuel Maluke Letete; Mare Sarr |
| Abstract: | This report discusses the evolution of institutions and compares the quality of key formal institutions (Political and Civil Liberties, Political Instability, and Property Rights) from Ghana’s colonial era to its post-independence. The Political and Civil Liberties and Political Instability are studies from 1820 to 2010, while Property Rights were analyzed for the periods 1849-2010. It has been found that, on average, the post-independent democratic regimes guaranteed the best political and civil liberties, and property rights. However, the democratic regime recorded the highest documented political instability, which includes number of lives lost, political arrests and assassinations, declaration of State of Emergency, and armed related attacks. Further analysis revealed that within the post-independent era, compared to the military regimes, democratic regimes registered significantly higher economic growth rate, all else equal. By implication, better political and civil liberties, and property rights institutions positively correlate with economic growth |
| Keywords: | Ghana, economic growth, Political instability, Civil Liberties |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:710&r=cta |
| By: | Martin, Simon; Schlag, Karl |
| Abstract: | When should one pay for delivery of a good if there are no institutions? We suggest to break up the transaction into many small rounds of investment and payment. We show that the efficient investment can be implemented in an epsilon-subgame perfect equilibrium for any given epsilon if the invest technology is concave and there are sufficiently many rounds of investment. This shows that the holdup problem that emerges from backwards induction in a finite horizon is not robust. |
| JEL: | D23 C72 L14 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168136&r=cta |
| By: | Hielscher, Stefan; Winkin, Jan; Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) are indispensable watchdogs against corrupt practices and global challenges found in complex, modern societies. Yet sometimes, CSOs themselves can struggle to live up to the ambitious standards they demand of others, such as responsible advocacy, ethical fundraising, and meaningful participation of stakeholders. In this discussion paper, we present the practical implications of our recently published research, which suggests that strengthening the rules of 'fair competition' among CSOs is a promising avenue to increase their credibility. |
| Keywords: | Civil Society,Responsible Advocacy,Competition,Self-Regulation,Zivilgesellschaft,Responsible Advocacy,Wettbewerb,Selbstregulierung |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201712&r=cta |
| By: | Stefano Comino; Alberto Galasso; Clara Graziano |
| Abstract: | What factors affect the diffusion of new economic institutions? This paper examines this question exploiting the introduction of the first regularized patent system which appeared in the Venetian Republic in 1474. We begin by developing a model which links patenting activity of craft guilds with provisions in their statutes. The model predicts that guild statutes that are more effective at preventing outsider’s entry and at mitigating price competition lead to less patenting. We test this prediction on a new dataset which combines detailed information on craft guilds and patents in the Venetian Republic during the Renaissance. We find a negative association between patenting activity and guild statutory norms which strongly restrict entry and price competition. We show that guilds which originated from medieval religious confraternities were more likely to regulate entry and competition, and that the effect on patenting is robust to instrumenting guild statutes with their quasi-exogenous religious origin. We also find that patenting was more widespread among guilds geographically distant from Venice, and among guilds in cities with lower political connection which we measure exploiting a new database on noble families and their marriages with members of the great council. Our analysis suggests that local economic and political conditions may have a substantial impact on the diffusion of new economic institutions. |
| Keywords: | patents, competition, guilds, institutions |
| JEL: | O33 O34 K23 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6612&r=cta |
| By: | Jonathan Chiu (Bank of Canada); Thorsten Koeppl (Queen's University) |
| Abstract: | How well can a cryptocurrency serve as a means of payment? We study the optimal design of cryptocurrencies and assess quantitatively how well such currencies can support bilateral trade. The challenge for cryptocurrencies is to overcome double-spending by relying on competition to update the blockchain (costly mining) and by delaying settlement. We estimate that the current Bitcoin scheme generates a large welfare loss of 1.4% of consumption. This welfare loss can be lowered substantially to 0.08% by adopting an optimal design that reduces mining and relies exclusively on money growth rather than transaction fees to finance mining rewards. We also point out that cryptocurrencies can potentially challenge retail payment systems provided scaling limitations can be addressed. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrency, Blockchain, Bitcoin, Double Spending, Payment Systems |
| JEL: | E4 E5 L5 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1389&r=cta |
| By: | Florian Habermacher; Paul Lehmann |
| Abstract: | To decarbonize the power sector policy-makers need to commit to long-term credible rules for climate and energy policy. Otherwise, time-inconsistent policy-making will impair investments into low-carbon technologies. However, the future benefits and costs of decarbonization are subject to substantial uncertainties. Thus, there may also be societal gains from allowing policy-makers the discretion to adjust the policies as new information becomes available. We examine how this trade-off between policy commitment and discretion affects the optimal intertemporal design of policies to support the deployment of renewable energy sources. Using a dynamic partial equilibrium model of the power sector, we show that commitment to state-contingent renewable subsidies outperforms both unconditional commitment and discretion. The choice between the practically more feasible approaches of unconditional commitment and discretion is analytically ambiguous. A numerical illustration with naïve assumptions suggests that policy discretion may outperform unconditional commitment in terms of welfare. However, extensions to more realistic cases where only a limited fraction of climate uncertainty resolves, where future policy-makers have own agendas, or with risk-averse investors show commitment as favorable. |
| Keywords: | climate change, public policy, subsidies, renewable energy, time inconsistency, uncertainty, commitment, hold-up |
| JEL: | H23 Q42 Q48 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6355&r=cta |
| By: | T. Tony Ke (MIT Sloan School of Management); Baojun Jiang (Washington University in St. Louis); Monic Sun (Boston University) |
| Abstract: | We consider a platform that matches service providers with potential customers. Ratings of a service provider reveal the quality of his service while ratings of a consumer reveal the cost to serve her. Under a competitive search framework, we study how bilateral ratings influence market competition and segmentation. Two types of equilibria exist under bilateral ratings. In the first type, low-cost consumers only apply to high-quality service providers, who post a higher price, have longer queues and are less likely to accept an application than low-quality providers. High-cost consumers apply to all service providers and have a lower acceptance rate. In the second type of equilibria, both high- and low-quality service providers serve all consumers. Across all equilibria, equilibrium prices may decrease as the fraction of high-quality providers increases, as consumers become more costly to serve, and as the platform's commission rate increases. Compared with a platform with unilateral ratings where only service providers are rated, a platform with bilateral ratings may soften service providers' competition, leading to higher equilibrium prices. Lastly, we find that in the case of incomplete market coverage, high-quality service providers may charge lower prices than low-quality providers in equilibrium, because by charging a lower price, a high-quality service provider attracts more consumer applications, which enables him to cherrypick a low-cost consumer, while a low-quality service provider faces with consumers with higher serving costs and thus charge a higher price to make up the serving cost. |
| Keywords: | Platform; Peer-to-Peer; Competitive Search; Matching; Reviews; Information Disclosure; Segmentation |
| JEL: | D82 D83 M31 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:1701&r=cta |
| By: | Gu, Yiquan; Hehenkamp, Burkhard; Leininger, Wolfgang |
| Abstract: | We study evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) in contests where participation is stochastic. When participation probabilities are given, players exert more effort In ESS than under Nash. Ex-ante overdissipation occurs when participation is suff. likely and discriminative power of the contest suff. high. When entry is costly and endogenous, players’ entry is more likely, more costly, and less profitable in ESS than under Nash. Ex-ante overdissipation also occurs for concave impact functions. |
| JEL: | D72 C73 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168168&r=cta |
| By: | Matthias Fahn; Anne Schade; Katharina Schüßler |
| Abstract: | We explore how inherent preferences for reciprocity and repeated interaction interact in an optimal incentive system. Developing a theoretical model of a long-term employment relationship, we first show that reciprocal preferences are more important when an employee is close to retirement. At earlier stages, repeated interaction is more important because more future rents can be used to provide incentives. Preferences for reciprocity still affect the structure of an employment relationship early on, though, because of two reasons: first, preferences for reciprocity effectively reduce the employee’s effort costs. Second, they allow to relax the enforceability constraint that determines the principal’s commitment in the repeated interaction. Therefore, reciprocity-based and repeated-game incentives are dynamic substitutes, but complements at any given point in time. We test our main predictions using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and find evidence for a stronger positive effect of positive reciprocity on effort for older workers. |
| Keywords: | reciprocity, relational contracts, dynamic incentives |
| JEL: | C73 D21 D22 D86 D90 D91 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6635&r=cta |
| By: | George Economides; Thomas Moutos |
| Abstract: | To many economists the public’s support for the minimum wage (MW) institution is puzzling, since the MW is considered a “blunt instrument†for redistribution. To delve deeper in this issue we build models in which workers are heterogeneous in ability. In the first model, the government does not engage in any type of redistributive policies – except for the payment of unemployment benefits; we find that the MW is preferred by the majority of workers (even when the unemployed receive very generous unemployment benefits). In the second model, the government engages in redistribution through the public provision of private goods. We show that (i) the introduction of a MW can be preferred by a majority of workers only if the unemployed receive benefits which are substantially below the after-tax earnings they would have had in the perfectly competitive case, (ii) for a given generosity of the unemployment benefit scheme, the maximum, politically viable, MW is lower than in the absence of in-kind redistribution, and (iii) the MW institution is politically viable only when there is a limited degree of in-kind redistribution. These findings can possibly explain why a well-developed social safety net in Scandinavia tends to co-exist with the absence of a national MW, whereas in Southern Europe the MW institution “complements†the absence of a well-developed social safety net. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, in-kind redistribution, heterogeneity, unemployment |
| JEL: | E21 E24 H23 J23 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6545&r=cta |
| By: | Jaroslav Borovicka; John Stachurski |
| Abstract: | We study existence, uniqueness and computability of solutions for a class of discrete time recursive utilities models. By combining two streams of the recent literature on recursive preferences---one that analyzes principal eigenvalues of valuation operators and another that exploits the theory of monotone concave operators---we obtain conditions that are both necessary and sufficient for existence and uniqueness of solutions. We also show that the natural iterative algorithm is convergent if and only if a solution exists. Consumption processes are allowed to be nonstationary. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.06526&r=cta |
| By: | Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael |
| Abstract: | We study the aggregate implications of sectoral shocks in a multi-sector New Keynesian model featuring sectoral heterogeneity in price stickiness, sector size, and input-output linkages. We calibrate a 341 sector version of the model to the United States. Both theoretically and empirically, sectoral heterogeneity in price rigidity (i) generates sizable GDP volatility from sectoral shocks, (ii) amplifies both the “granular” and the “network” effects, (iii) alters the identity and relative contributions of the most important sectors for aggregate fluctuations, (iv) can change the sign of fluctuations, (v) invalidates the Hulten (1978) Theorem, and (vi) generates a “frictional” origin of aggregate fluctuations. JEL Classification: E31, E32, O40 |
| Keywords: | idiosyncratic shocks, input-output linkages, sticky prices |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172102&r=cta |
| By: | Kyle Bagwell; Robert W. Staiger; Ali Yurukoglu |
| Abstract: | We provide an equilibrium analysis of the efficiency properties of bilateral tariff negotiations in a three-country, two-good general equilibrium model of international trade when transfers are not feasible. We consider "weak-rules" settings characterized by two cases: a no-rules case in which discriminatory tariffs are allowed, and an MFN-only case in which negotiated tariffs must be non-discriminatory (i.e., satisfy the MFN rule). We allow for a general family of political-economic country welfare functions and assess efficiency relative to these welfare functions. For the no-rules case with discriminatory tariffs, we consider simultaneous bilateral tariff negotiations and utilize the "Nash-in-Nash" solution concept of Horn and Wolinsky (1988). We establish a sense in which the resulting tariffs are inefficient and too low, so that excessive liberalization occurs from the perspective of the three countries. In the MFN-only case, we consider negotiations between two countries that are "principal suppliers" to each other and employ the Nash bargaining solution concept. Different possibilities arise. For one important situation, we establish a sense in which the resulting tariffs are inefficient and too high when evaluated relative to the unrestricted set of efficient tariffs. We also compare the negotiated tariffs under the MFN rule with the MFN-constrained efficiency frontier, finding that the negotiated tariffs are generically inefficient relative to this frontier and may lead to too little or too much liberalization. Finally, we illustrate our findings with a numerical analysis of a particular representation of the model as an endowment economy with Cobb-Douglas preferences and under the assumption that each government maximizes the indirect utility of the representative agent in its country. |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23894&r=cta |
| By: | Caruso Bloeck, Martín (Universidad Nacional de la Plata); Galiani, Sebastian (University of Maryland); Ibarrarán, Pablo (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses theoretical and practical issues related to long-term care (LTC) services in Latin America. Demand for these services will rise as the region undergoes a swift demographic transition from its currently young population to a rapidly aging one, especially since the region's aging cohorts are more prone to experience a decline in their functional and physical abilities than elderly people elsewhere in the world. We argue that private insurance markets are ill-equipped to provide coverage to meet the need for LTC, while the amount of personal savings required to afford self-insurance is prohibitively high. We study how developed economies have dealt with the issue of LTC and pay special attention to the most salient features of their LTC programs. We then direct the discussion to Latin America, where LTC may not be an immediate priority, but governments are likely to encourage the development of LTC programs as demand for them steadily grows. In particular, policymakers are probably going to focus initially on LTC programs for the poor and the vulnerable, for whom LTC affordability is a greater problem. We therefore study how basic elements of policy design affect cost-effectiveness of LTC programs by means of a formal model. Our study shows that pro-poor programs are more cost effective when people have the option to receive cash subsidies, and the availability of in-kind and in-cash choices reduces program costs overall. We argue that our findings are natural starting points to start thinking about LTC program development in the region. |
| Keywords: | long-term care, long-term care insurance, population aging, Latin America |
| JEL: | J14 N36 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11035&r=cta |
| By: | Mattauch, Linus; Klenert, David; Stiglitz, Joseph E.; Edenhofer, Ottmar |
| Abstract: | N/A |
| JEL: | D31 E21 H31 H41 H54 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168156&r=cta |
| By: | Patir, Assaf |
| Abstract: | Accounts of the recent financial crisis claim that the practice of securitizing bank loans had led banks to be less vigilant in their lending habits. Securitization, the argument goes, gives the originators of the loans worse incentives to screen potential borrowers and monitor them as compared to traditional direct lending. But, unless investors are pricing securities irrationally, wouldn't contract theory suggest that banks should always prefer the contract that allows them to commit to higher vigilance? This paper addresses this problem by introducing a model in which securitization leads to laxer lending standards, even though it is chosen optimally by banks and investors. I construct a model where investment is performed through intermediaries (banks) that choose the volume of lending and a variable level of effort in screening potential borrowers, set the lending standards, and can finance their activities either by eliciting deposits or selling securities. Securitization allows the banks to credibly communicate to investors information about the borrowers, which depositors cannot access. Securitization has two effects: at fixed leverage, securitization gives banks better incentives to screen borrowers and leads to higher lending standards; however, it also allows banks to choose a higher level of leverage, which in turn degrades the screening effort. In equilibrium, securitization leads to lower vigilance, but is still preferred because it allows the banks to intermediate more funds. Paradoxically, the method of finance that allows banks to better communicate information about borrowers leads in equilibrium to less information being produced. The model also provides a natural explanation for why securitization is not observed below a strict credit rating cutoff (FICO 620), and why securitization activity can discontinuously stop as a continuous function of overall economic conditions. |
| Keywords: | securitization, leverage, banks, SPV, MBS, sudden stops |
| JEL: | E22 G14 G18 G21 |
| Date: | 2017–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81463&r=cta |
| By: | Urmee Khan (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside); Robert Lieli |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:201711&r=cta |
| By: | Mesén Vargas, Juliana (IRES, Université catholique de Louvain); Van der Linden, Bruno (IRES, Université catholique de Louvain) |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the behavioral effects of unemployment benefits (UB) and it characterizes their optimal level when jobless people only survive if they have access to a minimum or subsistence consumption level in each period. To survive when the level of UB is very low, they carry out a subsistence activity. Our model shows that if the level of UB is very low, increasing its level or providing liquidity to the agent can decrease the duration in unemployment; for higher levels of UB we reencounter the standard properties that increasing UB increases duration and that providing liquidity to the agent increases duration (Chetty, 2008). We also show that the optimal level of UB satisfies the Baily-Chetty formula (Baily, 1978, Chetty, 2006), but contrary to Chetty (2008), in our model the gain from insurance cannot be rewritten using sufficient statistics; we show that such decomposition requires specific modeling assumptions. |
| Keywords: | liquidity effect, scarcity, monetary costs, optimal insurance |
| JEL: | D91 H21 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11034&r=cta |
| By: | Declan French; Donal McKillop; Tripti Sharma |
| Abstract: | Using the household level data from the UK Wealth and Asset Survey for years 2006-2014, we explore a household’s decision to use one particular method of withdrawing home equity from a range of options available to them. These options include financial products such as remortgage contracts and equity release schemes (reverse mortgage and home reversion schemes) and informal mediums carried out by individual households themselves, for example downsizing of homeownership. The results show that homeowners prefer using formal channels of equity withdrawal. This tendency persists when controlling for household characteristics such as age profile, marital status and demographics and levels of housing wealth, income, savings and unsecured and secured debts. Our findings support the argument that while the decision to withdraw home equity conforms to consumption smoothing motives, the choice of an equity withdrawal medium goes beyond those motives and depends on the circumstances facing individual households. |
| Keywords: | Equity release schemes; Reverse mortgage; Refinancing; Downsizing; Housing; Homeownership; Retirement; Wealth de-accumulation |
| JEL: | D14 E21 G21 J14 R21 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qub:charms:1704&r=cta |
| By: | Behnk, Sascha (University of Zurich); Hao, Li (University of Arkansas, Fayetteville); Reuben, Ernesto (New York University, Abu Dhabi) |
| Abstract: | Using a series of sender-receiver games, we find that two senders acting together are willing to behave more antisocially towards the receiver than single senders. This result is robust in two contexts: when antisocial messages are dishonest and when they are honest but unfavorable. Our results suggest that diffusion of responsibility is the primary reason for the increased antisocial behavior as our experimental design eliminates competing explanations. With a partner in crime, senders think that behaving antisocially is more acceptable and experience less guilt. Importantly, we identify a crucial condition for the increased antisocial behavior by groups: the partner in crime must actively participate in the decision-making. Our results have important implications for institutional design and promoting prosocial behaviors. |
| Keywords: | diffusion of responsibility, antisocial behavior, moral norms, guilt aversion |
| JEL: | D70 D91 C92 D63 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11031&r=cta |
| By: | Halit Yanikkaya (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University); Zeynep Aktas Koral (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University) |
| Abstract: | Growing world trade puts forward the importance of trade liberalization and facilitation issues. As trade liberalization efforts of both governments and international organizations have mostly been successful, the importance of bureaucratic and informal impediments to international trade has been increased. An important part of these impediments is generally composed of complicated customs procedures and documentation requirements that generate the principal part of customs-related transaction costs. In this study, we examine the role of several factors in the determination of customs-related transaction costs, especially the waiting time to clear the cargo already in some Turkish ports. We find that customs-clearance line, customs personnel, institutions other than customs offices and information technology structure of the country are the principal factors having important roles in determination of these costs. However, there are several important factors affecting these costs through the customs clearance lines such as simplified procedures, frequency of operations, firm size, country of origin, type of the goods and some other risk factors. |
| Keywords: | transaction costs, customs procedures, in-depth interview, Turkey |
| JEL: | C93 D23 F10 |
| Date: | 2017–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:geb:wpaper:2017-02&r=cta |
| By: | Eoin McGuirk; Nathaniel Hilger; Nicholas Miller |
| Abstract: | Why do wars occur? We exploit a natural experiment to test the longstanding hypothesis that leaders declare war because they fail to internalize the associated costs. We test this moral hazard theory of conflict by compiling data on the family composition of 3,693 US legislators who served in the U.S. Congress during the four conscription-era wars of the 20th century: World War I, World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. We test for agency problems by comparing the voting behavior of congressmen with draft-age sons versus draft-age daughters. We estimate that having a draft-age son reduces legislator support for pro-conscription bills by 10-17%. Legislators with draft-age sons are also more likely to win reelection, suggesting that support for conscription is punished by voters. Our results provide new evidence that agency problems contribute to political violence, and that elected officials can be influenced by changing private incentives. |
| JEL: | N42 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23904&r=cta |
| By: | Holger Hinz (Europa-Universität Flensburg, Internationales Institut für Management, Lehrstuhl Finanzwirtschaft); Sebastian Vollmer (University of Southern Denmark, Department of Entrepreneurship and Relationship Management) |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fln:wpaper:026&r=cta |
| By: | Chiu, Jonathan; Koeppl, Thorsten V |
| Abstract: | How well can a cryptocurrency serve as a means of payment? We study the optimal design of cryptocurrencies and assess quantitatively how well such currencies can support bilateral trade. The challenge for cryptocurrencies is to overcome double-spending by relying on competition to update the blockchain (costly mining) and by delaying settlement. We estimate that the current Bitcoin scheme generates a large welfare loss of 1.4% of consumption. This welfare loss can be lowered substantially to 0.08% by adopting an optimal design that reduces mining and relies exclusively on money growth rather than transaction fees to finance mining rewards. We also point out that cryptocurrencies can potentially challenge retail payment systems provided scaling limitations can be addressed. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrency, Blockchain, Bitcoin, Double spending, Payment systems, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:6688&r=cta |
| By: | Huning, Thilo R.; Wahl, Fabian |
| Abstract: | To better understand the role of taxation in the emergence of states, this article presents an incomplete contract model of an agricultural society in which information asymmetries cause inefficient taxation, and hence outmigration, uprisings, and rent-seeking, but also urbanization. We propose a geographic index of information costs, observability, to test our model. Our case study is the Holy Roman Empire, which had a relatively homogeneous institutional framework, state of technology, culture, and ethnic composition across hundreds of observed states, for over 500 years. We find a robust link between observability and states' tax capacity, their size, and their survival. |
| Keywords: | state capacity,principal-agent problem,taxation,Holy Roman Empire |
| JEL: | O42 D73 Q15 N93 D82 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohdps:222017&r=cta |
| By: | Martin Boyer; Philippe De Donder; Claude Fluet; Marie-Louise Leroux; Pierre-Carl Michaud |
| Abstract: | We conduct a stated-choice experiment where respondents are asked to rate various insurance products aimed to protect against financial risks associated with long-term care needs. Using exogenous variation in prices from the survey design, and objective risks computed from a dynamic microsimulation model, these stated-choice probabilities are used to predict market equilibrium for long-term care insurance using the framework developed by Einav et al. (2010). We investigate in turn causes for the low observed take-up of long-term care insurance in Canada despite substantial residual out-of-pocket financial risk. We first find that awareness and knowledge of the product is low in the population: 44% of respondents who do not have long-term care insurance were never offered this type of insurance while overall 31% report no knowledge of the product. Although we find evidence of adverse selection, results suggest it plays a minimal role in limiting take-up. On the demand side, once respondents have been made aware of the risks, we find that demand remains low, in part because of misperceptions of risk, lack of bequest motive and home ownership which may act as a substitute. |
| JEL: | D14 I13 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23918&r=cta |
| By: | Magdalena Helfrich; Fabian Herweg |
| Abstract: | We provide an explanation for a frequently observed vertical restraint in ecommerce, namely that brand manufacturers partially or completely prohibit that retailers distribute their high-quality products over the internet. Our analysis is based on the assumption that a consumer’s purchasing decision is distorted by salient thinking, i.e. by the fact that he overvalues a product attribute - quality or price - that stands out in a particular choice situation. In a highly competitive low-price environment like on an online platform, consumers focus more on price rather than quality. Especially if the market power of local (physical) retailers is low, price tends to be salient also in the local store, which is unfavorable for the high-quality product and limits the wholesale price a brand manufacturer can charge. If, however, the branded product is not available online, a retailer can charge a significant markup on the high-quality good. As the markup is higher if quality rather than price is salient in the store, this aligns the retailer’s incentives with the brand manufacturer’s interest to make quality the salient attribute and allows the manufacturer to charge a higher wholesale price. We also show that, the weaker are consumers’ preferences for purchasing in the physical store and the stronger their salience bias, the more likely it is that a brand manufacturer wants to restrict online sales. Moreover, we find that a ban on distribution systems that prohibit internet sales increases consumer welfare and total welfare, because it leads to lower prices for final consumers and prevents inefficient online sales. |
| Keywords: | internet competition, relative thinking, retailing, salience, selective distribution |
| JEL: | D43 K21 L42 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6615&r=cta |
| By: | Niamh Hardiman (School of Politics and International Relations, and Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin, Ireland); Joaquim Filipe Araújo (Department of International Relations and Public Administration, University of Minho, Braga, Portugal); Muiris MacCarthaigh (School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics, and the George J. Mitchell Institute for Global Peace, Security and Justice, Queen’s University Belfast, UK); Calliope Spanou (Department of Political Science and Public Adminstration, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece) |
| Abstract: | Portugal and Ireland exited Troika loan programmes; Greece did not. The conventional narrative is that different outcomes are best explained by differences in national competences in implementing programme requirements. This paper argues that three factors distinguish the Greek experience from that of Ireland and Portugal: different economic, political, and institutional starting conditions; the ad hoc nature of the European institutions’ approach to crisis resolution; and the very different conditionalities built into each of the loan programmes as a result. Ireland and Portugal show some signs of recovery despite austerity measures, but Greece has been burdened beyond all capacity to recover convincingly. |
| Keywords: | Loan programme, Eurozone crisis, Troika, European periphery, conditionality |
| JEL: | E02 E62 G01 H30 H77 H87 |
| Date: | 2017–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:201711&r=cta |
| By: | Björn Christensen (Fachhochschule Kiel, Professur für Mathematik und Statistik am Fachbereich Wirtschaft); Holger Hinz (Europa-Universität Flensburg, Internationales Institut für Management, Lehrstuhl Finanzwirtschaft); Sebastian Vollmer (Syddansk Universitet); Carsten Weimann |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fln:wpaper:024&r=cta |
| By: | Bajrami, Leon; Loschelder, David D.; Mechtel, Mario |
| Abstract: | Previous research has shown that individuals discriminate against outgroup members in economic decision-tasks (e.g., Chen and Li 2009, Hett et al. 2017, see also Social Identity Theory, Tajfel and Turner 1979). In this paper, we examine senders’ economic decisions in a dictator game, given that the receiver belongs to a refugee outgroup. First, we find that providing stylized information about the perspective of the receiver influences senders’ social preferences. Second, we show that political preferences matter substantially. Our data reveal that senders’ political orientation moderates the effect of information on their social preferences: While the information treatment strengthens social preferences towards outgroup members for more left-wing oriented participants, the treatment effect on participants who favor more right-wing parties is even negative. Our experiment allows to derive policy implications on how attitudes towards refugees could be altered. |
| Keywords: | outgroup discrimination,social identity,social preferences,refugees,information,field experiment |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168225&r=cta |
| By: | Jonathan D. Hall |
| Abstract: | We need structural models of traffic congestion to answer a wide variety of questions, but the standard models fail to match the data on travel times across the day. I establish the nature and magnitude of the problem, and show its source lies in how we model agent preferences, not in the specifics of the congestion technology. The poor fit of the models suggests that we are abstracting away from features with a first-order impact on model predictions, which limits our ability to use these models to evaluate counterfactuals quantitatively and---when agents are heterogeneous---qualitatively as well. I explore several ways of improving the fit of these models, concluding with recommendations for tractable and intuitive ways of doing so. |
| Keywords: | Structural model; Congestion; Model fit; Calibration; Dynamic; Bottleneck Model; Traffic |
| JEL: | R4 H4 |
| Date: | 2017–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-590&r=cta |
| By: | Jirjahn, Uwe; Smith, Stephen C. |
| Abstract: | Theories of how nonunion employee representation impacts firm performance, affects market equilibria, and generates externalities on labor and society are synthesized. Mandated works councils in Germany provide a particularly strong form of nonunion employee representation. A systematic review of research on the German experience with mandated works councils finds generally positive effects, though these effects depend on a series of moderating factors and some impacts remain ambiguous. Finally, key questions for empirical research on nonunion employee representation, which have previously been little analyzed in the literature, are reviewed. |
| Keywords: | Nonunion representation,works councils,organizational failures,market failures,society |
| JEL: | J50 M50 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:132&r=cta |
| By: | Uwe Jirjahn; Stephen C. Smith |
| Abstract: | Theories of how nonunion employee representation impacts firm performance, affects market equilibria, and generates externalities on labor and society are synthesized. Mandated works councils in Germany provide a particularly strong form of nonunion employee representation. A systematic review of research on the German experience with mandated works councils finds generally positive effects, though these effects depend on a series of moderating factors and some impacts remain ambiguous. Finally, key questions for empirical research on nonunion employee representation, which have previously been little analyzed in the literature, are reviewed. |
| Keywords: | Nonunion representation, works councils, organizational failures, market failures, society |
| JEL: | J50 M50 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trr:wpaper:201708&r=cta |
| By: | Kenny, Seán (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Lennard, Jason (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Turner, John D. (Queen's University Belfast) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of UK banking crises over the period 1750 to 1938. We construct a new annual banking crisis series using bank failure rate data, which suggests that the incidence of banking crises was every 32 years. Using our new series and a narrative approach to identify exogenous banking crises, we find that industrial production contracts by 8.2 per cent in the year following a crisis. This finding is robust to a battery of checks, including different VAR specifications, different thresholds for the crisis indicator, and the use of a capital-weighted bank failure rate. |
| Keywords: | banking crisis; bank failures; narrative approach; macroeconomy; United Kingdom |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G21 N13 N23 N24 |
| Date: | 2017–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0165&r=cta |
| By: | Lema, Bizuayehu |
| Abstract: | This is a research critiques on "Mining and Local Corruption in Africa" by Knutsen, Carl H; Kotsadam Andreas, Olsen Eivind, Wig Tore |
| Keywords: | Mining, Corruption, Africa |
| JEL: | Q34 Q39 Q54 Q56 Q59 |
| Date: | 2017–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81938&r=cta |
| By: | AfDB AfDB |
| Date: | 2017–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2405&r=cta |
| By: | Sara M. Clifton; Eileen Herbers; Jack Chen; Daniel M. Abrams |
| Abstract: | The custom of voluntarily tipping for services rendered has gone in and out of fashion in America since its introduction in the 19th century. Restaurant owners that ban tipping in their establishments often claim that social justice drives their decisions, but we show that rational profit-maximization may also justify the decisions. Here, we propose a conceptual model of restaurant competition for staff and customers, and we show that there exists a critical conventional tip rate at which restaurant owners should eliminate tipping to maximize profit. Because the conventional tip rate has been increasing steadily for the last several decades, our model suggests that restaurant owners may abandon tipping en masse when that critical tip rate is reached. |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.06893&r=cta |
| By: | Rebecca L. Thornton; Hans-Peter Kohler |
| Abstract: | In high HIV-prevalence contexts, marriage can lead to significant risks through spousal behaviours. Yet, individuals cannot rely on their spouse to reveal their HIV status. Couples’ HIV testing and counselling can provide spouses with credible information about each other’s HIV status. Using random variation in participation in couples’ testing, this study documents that uncertainty about spouses’ HIV status contributes to marital dissolutions. Innovations, such as HIV couples’ testing and counselling—and, in the future, possibly rapid self-testing—that reduce this uncertainty can thus have profound impacts on marital behaviours and stability. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2017-173&r=cta |
| By: | van Damme, Eric (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:410bd8a5-b617-4f8c-81f4-3cb37248fa27&r=cta |
| By: | Cesare Righi; Timothy Simcoe |
| Abstract: | We study the matching of patent applications to examiners at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. Using test statistics originally developed to identify industry agglomeration, we find strong evidence that examiners specialize in particular technologies, even within relatively homogeneous art units. Examiner specialization is more pronounced in the biotechnology and chemistry fields, and less in computers and software. Evidence of specialization becomes weaker, but does not completely disappear, if we condition on technology sub-classes. There is no evidence that certain examiners specialize in applications that have greater importance or broader claims. More specialized examiners have a lower grant rate and produce a larger narrowing of claim-scope during the examination process. We discuss implications for instrumental variables based on examiner characteristics. |
| JEL: | H83 K11 L98 O3 O34 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23913&r=cta |
| By: | Forti Grazzini, Caterina; Rieth, Malte |
| Abstract: | The paper studies the relation between the US-Dollar/Euro exchange rate and US and euro area interest rates during normal and crisis times. We describe each asset price within a multifactor model and identify the causal contemporaneous relations through heteroskedasticity. We find that US rates and macroeconomic conditions dominate exchange rate and interest rate movements before and during the global financial crisis, while this pattern sharply reverses during the European debt crisis. |
| JEL: | E44 F31 G1 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168281&r=cta |
| By: | Giovanni Andrea Cornia and Bruno Martorano (University of Florence); Bruno Martorano (University of Florence) |
| Keywords: | inequality; africa; inclusive growth; poverty |
| JEL: | O13 Q18 O32 |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rac:wpaper:2017-01&r=cta |
| By: | AfDB AfDB |
| Date: | 2017–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2410&r=cta |
| By: | van Damme, Eric (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:0e04e7fe-a893-4959-813f-7f86a3b0ab63&r=cta |
| By: | AfDB AfDB |
| Date: | 2017–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2412&r=cta |
| By: | Laurent Bouton; Benjamin G. Ogden |
| Abstract: | We study the behavior of ethical voters in multicandidate elections. We consider two of the most-widely used electoral rules around the world: the plurality rule and the majority runoff rule. Our model delivers crisper predictions than those of the pivotal voter model. There are two types of equilibria: (i) the sincere voting equilibrium (in which voters vote for their most-preferred candidate), and (ii) Duverger's Law equilibria (in which two candidates attract all the votes). We prove that an equilibrium always exists, and that it is unique for a broad range of parameter values. Moreover, the sincere voting equilibrium never coexists with a Duverger's law equilibrium. We also identify the features of an election that favor sincere voting. Comparing plurality and majority runoff, we find that the incentives to vote sincerely are stronger under the latter. Our results are consistent with the findings of the empirical literature studying strategic voting under plurality and runoff rules. |
| JEL: | C72 D72 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23898&r=cta |
| By: | Kimberly Bayard; Ryan Decker; Charles Gilbert |
| Abstract: | The Federal Reserve's G.17 release on industrial production (IP) and capacity utilization published on September 15, 2017, included one of the first estimates of the impact on a specific measure of economic activity by Hurricane Harvey, which made landfall in Texas on August 25. As reported in the release, total industrial production fell 0.9 percent in August, most of which (about 3/4 percentage point) could be accounted for by storm-related outages. |
| Date: | 2017–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2017-10-11&r=cta |
| By: | Svetlozar Rachev; Stoyan Stoyanov; Frank J. Fabozzi |
| Abstract: | We derive behavioral finance option pricing formulas consistent with the rational dynamic asset pricing theory. In the existing behavioral finance option pricing formulas, the price process of the representative agent is not a semimartingale, which leads to arbitrage opportunities for the option seller. In the literature on behavioral finance option pricing it is allowed the option buyer and seller to have different views on the instantaneous mean return of the underlying price process, which leads to arbitrage opportunities according to Black (1972). We adjust the behavioral finance option pricing formulas to be consistent with the rational dynamic asset pricing theory, by introducing transaction costs on the velocity of trades which offset the gains from the arbitrage trades. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.03205&r=cta |
| By: | Achim Voss (School of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Hamburg); Mark Schopf (University of Hagen) |
| Abstract: | We characterize the resource-extraction path that is chosen by a government which is influenced by a resource-supplier lobby group. The lobby group pays the government in exchange for a deviation from welfare-maximization. We show how the development of payments relates to the development of a conflict of interest between profit-maximization and welfare-maximization. Due to stock-pollution damages, the government prefers a lower long-run level of cumulative extraction than the lobby group. Moreover, the resource suppliers’ aim of maximizing profit implies that the distorted extraction may be too slow to maximize welfare, while flow-pollution damages imply that it may be too fast. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Policy, Exhaustible Resources, Political Economy, Lobbying, Time Consistency, Dynamic Programming |
| JEL: | D72 Q31 Q38 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:ciepap:108&r=cta |
| By: | Marina Halac; Pierre Yared |
| Abstract: | We study a fiscal policy model in which the government is present-biased towards public spending. Society chooses a fiscal rule to trade off the benefit of committing the government to not overspend against the benefit of granting it flexibility to react to privately observed shocks to the value of spending. Unlike prior work, we characterize rules that are self-enforcing: the government must prefer to comply with the rule rather than face the punishment that follows a breach, where any such punishment must also be self-enforcing. We show that the optimal rule is a maximally enforced deficit limit, which, if violated, leads to the worst punishment for the government. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the government to violate the deficit limit following sufficiently high shocks. Punishment takes the form of a maximally enforced surplus limit that incentivizes overspending; fiscal discipline is restored when the government respects it. |
| JEL: | C73 D02 D82 E6 H1 P16 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23919&r=cta |
| By: | AfDB AfDB |
| Date: | 2017–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2406&r=cta |
| By: | Alicia Garcia-Herrero (Adjunct Professor, Department of Economics , Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Chief Economist, Asia Pacific at NATIXIS) |
| Abstract: | Alicia Garcia-Herrero, HKUST IEMS Faculty Associate, thinks that the Belt and Road Initiative’s financial goals can be met by borrowing from international banks, in addition to Chinese ones. European banks, as already biggest lenders to the Belt and Road countries, could be encouraged to further help with financing OBOR’s projects since many of them are appealing for Europe. Meanwhile Hong Kong has an important role to play in the international financing of the Initiative. |
| Keywords: | china, Chinese Banks, europe, finance, infrastructure, OBOR, One Belt One Road |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:briefs:201717&r=cta |
| By: | Alex Edmans; Xavier Gabaix; Dirk Jenter |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on executive compensation. We start by presenting data on the level of CEO and other top executive pay over time and across firms, the changing composition of pay; and the strength of executive incentives. We compare pay in U.S. public firms to private and non-U.S. firms. We then critically analyze three non-exclusive explanations for what drives executive pay - shareholder value maximization by boards, rent extraction by executives, and institutional factors such as regulation, taxation, and accounting policy. We confront each hypothesis with the evidence. While shareholder value maximization is consistent with many practices that initially seem inefficient, no single explanation can account for all facts and historical trends; we highlight major gaps for future research. We discuss evidence on the effects of executive pay, highlighting recent identification strategies, and suggest policy implications grounded in theoretical and empirical research. Our survey has two main goals. First, we aim to tightly link the theoretical literature to the empirical evidence, and combine the insights contributed by all three views on the drivers of pay. Second, we aim to provide a user-friendly guide to executive compensation, presenting shareholder value theories using a simple unifying model, and discussing the challenges and methodological issues with empirical research. |
| Keywords: | executive compensation, CEO compensation, managerial incentives, pay-for-performance, corporate governance |
| JEL: | D31 D86 G34 M12 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6585&r=cta |
| By: | Chen, Yuanyuan (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics); Wang, Le (University of Oklahoma); Zhang, Min (East China Normal University) |
| Abstract: | The use of informal job search method is prevalent in many countries. There is, however, no consensus in the literature on whether it actually matters for wages, and if it does, what are the underlying mechanisms. We empirically examine these issues specifically for rural migrants in urban China, a country where one of the largest domestic migration in human history has occurred over the past decades. We find that there exists a significant wage penalty for those migrant workers who have conducted their search through informal channels, despite their popularity. Our further analysis suggests two potential reasons for the wage penalty: 1) the informal job search sends a negative signal (of workers' inability to successfully find a job in a competitive market) to potential employers, resulting in lower wages; and 2) there exists a trade-off between wages and search efficiency for quicker entry into local labor market. We also find some evidence that the informal job search may lead to low-skilled jobs with lower wages. We do not find strong evidence supporting alternative explanations. |
| Keywords: | social network, rural-urban migrants, wage, search friction, information asymmetry, chinese economy |
| JEL: | J31 J64 P2 P5 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11058&r=cta |
| By: | AfDB AfDB |
| Date: | 2017–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2404&r=cta |
| By: | AfDB AfDB |
| Date: | 2017–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2402&r=cta |
| By: | Matthes, Jürgen |
| Abstract: | Vor dem Hintergrund einer gestiegenen Übernahmeaktivität durch chinesische Investoren in Europa wird derzeit diskutiert, ob die Eingriffsmöglichkeiten der Politik erweitert werden sollen. Vereinzelt gab es hier schon konkrete Schritte. Von den Befürwortern wird vor allem kritisiert, dass keine Reziprozität herrsche, da der Zugang europäischer Firmen zum chinesischen Markt eingeschränkt sei, in der EU aber sehr weitgehende Kapitalverkehrsfreiheit gelte. Zudem werden Wettbewerbsverzerrungen für möglich gehalten, da bei den Übernahmen eine indirekte Steuerung und Finanzierung durch den chinesischen Staat vermutet wird. Die Gegner verweisen dagegen auf die vielfältigen Vorteile von Direktinvestitionen und befürchten, dass ausländische Investoren abgeschreckt werden könnten. Dieser Beitrag wägt diese und weitere Argumente beider Seiten ab und fügt der Debatte einen neuen Aspekt hinzu. Demnach könnte es - möglicherweise - durch die chinesischen Übernahmen zu einem in Ausmaß und Tempo problematischen Technologietransfer kommen. Mit der einschlägigen traditionellen Außenhandelstheorie lässt sich in einem Modell mit einem technologischen hoch und einem weniger entwickelten Land zeigen: Ein rasches technologisches Aufholen des Nachzüglers kann unter bestimmten Bedingungen dazu führen, dass der Vorreiter gesamtwirtschaftliche Wohlfahrtsverluste erleidet (u. a. Samuelson, 2004). Dieser Beitrag versucht, eine erste Einschätzung zu geben, ob und unter welchen Umständen diese Bedingungen erfüllt sein könnten. In den Blick genommen wird vor allem Chinas industriepolitische Strategie, die stark auf einen rapiden Technologietransfer setzt und dies im Rahmen der "Made in China 2025"-Strategie noch mehr tun dürfte. Bei der Bewertung spielt zudem eine Rolle, dass China ein sehr großes und stark aufholendes Land ist, das die Weltmärkte schon seit dem vergangenen Jahrzehnt unter großen Anpassungsdruck gesetzt hat. Darüber hinaus wird dargelegt, dass wichtige im Rahmen der neuen Wachstumstheorie abgeleitete dynamische Vorteile ausländischer Investitionen weniger relevant sein könnten, wenn ein technologisch rückständigeres chinesisches Unternehmen einen europäischen Innovationsvorreiter aufkauft. Schließlich wird diskutiert, ob die Industrieländer ihren Innovationsvorsprung auch in Zukunft weiter halten können. Insgesamt gesehen kann nach derzeitigem Kenntnisstand nicht ausgeschlossen werden, dass die genannten Bedingungen erfüllt sein könnten. Ein abschließendes Urteil ist bei derzeitigem Kenntnisstand nicht möglich, sodass ein Analyseraster, konkrete Fragen und Forschungsbedarf abgeleitet werden. Dazu gehört auch, durch eine Überwachung der Übernahmetätigkeit in Europa eine bessere Datengrundlage zu erhalten. Unabhängig von der hier gestellten ökonomischen Frage müssen die EU-Länder angesichts des anstehenden Strukturwandels ihre Innovations- und Anpassungsfähigkeit weiter stärken. |
| JEL: | F15 F21 F43 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:302017&r=cta |
| By: | Bing Guo; David Pérez-Castrillo; Anna Toldrà -Simats |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of analyst coverage on firms’ innovation strategy and outcome. By considering three different channels that allow firms to innovate: internal R&D, acquisitions of other innovative firms, and investments in corporate venture capital (CVC), we are able to distinguish between the pressure and information effect of analysts. Using the data of US firms from 1990 to 2012, we find evidence that: i) an increase in financial analysts leads firms to cut R&D expenses, and ii) more analyst coverage leads firms to acquire more innovative firms and invest in CVC. We attribute the first result to the effect of analyst pressure, and the second to the informational role of analysts. In line with the previous literature, we also find that analyst coverage has a negative effect on firms’ future patents and citations; however, this negative effect becomes not significant when firms’ in-house R&D spending and external innovation channels are taken into account. We find that more financial analysts encourage firms to make more efficient investments related to innovation, which increase their future patents and citations. We address endogeneity with an instrumental variables approach and a difference-in-differences strategy where exogenous variation in analyst coverage comes from brokerage house mergers. |
| Keywords: | financial analysts, innovation, corporate venture capital, acquisition |
| JEL: | G34 G24 O31 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6574&r=cta |
| By: | Planer-Friedrich, Lisa; Sahm, Marco |
| Abstract: | We compare the strategic potential of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and Customer Orientation (CO) as commitments to larger quantities in Cournot competition, modeled as a multi-stage game. First, in addition to profits, firms can choose to care for the surplus of either all consumers (CSR) or their own customers only (CO). Second, they decide upon the weight of this additional objective. We find that firms prefer to care for all consumers, choosing positive levels of CSR. |
| JEL: | D43 L13 L21 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168257&r=cta |
| By: | Merkl, Christian; Stüber, Heiko |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the effects of different wage cyclicalities on labor market flow dynamics. We derive a model that allows for heterogeneous wage cyclicalities across firms over the business cycle and confront the theoretical results with the new AWFP dataset. Establishments with more procyclical wage movements over the business cycle have a more countercyclical hires rate. The quantitative responses are in line with the proposed model. |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J64 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168129&r=cta |
| By: | Amanda Michaud; David Wiczer |
| Abstract: | Using retrospective data, we introduce evidence that occupational exposure significantly affects disability risk. Incorporating this into a general equilibrium model, social disability insurance (SDI) affects welfare through (i) the classic, risk-sharing channel and (ii) a new channel of occupational reallocation. Both channels can increase welfare, but at the optimal SDI they are at odds. Welfare gains from additional risk-sharing are reduced by overly incentivizing workers to choose risky occupations. In a calibration, optimal SDI increases welfare by 2.3% relative to actuarially fair insurance, mostly due to risk sharing. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nys:sunysb:17-11&r=cta |
| By: | Ali Ihsan Ozkes (Aix-Marseille Univ. (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS, EHESS and Centrale Marseille); M. Remzi Sanver (Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Research University, CNRS, UMR 7243, LAMSADE) |
| Abstract: | We revisit the neutrality requirement in social choice theory. We propose a weakening of the standard neutrality condition, by allowing for different procedural treatment for different alternatives while entailing that alternatives enjoy same ex-ante possibility to be chosen. We compare these two conditions theoretically and computationally. Furthermore, we explore social choice problems in which this weakening resolves impossibilities that stem from a fundamental tension between neutrality and anonymity. Finally, we show that in certain social choice problems, this weakening provides an immediate refinement of anonymous, neutral, and Pareto optimal social choice rules towards retaining resoluteness. |
| Keywords: | anonymity, neutrality, Pareto optimality, social choice functions |
| JEL: | D63 D71 D72 D74 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1736&r=cta |
| By: | Mamoon, Dawood; Hernandez, SIlvia |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze the institutional arrangement between various actors to understand how ICT project objectives flow among actors in a standard LINCOS project and how they would affect the sustainability and effectiveness of LINCOS in particular and an ICT project in general. Since there are many actors involved in different stages and processes of a single LINCOS project, the paper analyses the bilateral and multilateral relationships among these actors to understand the factors that might affect the efficiency of the ICT project. In other words the paper looks at the actors involved in a LINCOS project in an effort to capture those circumstances under which a LINCOS project is exposed to principal- agent problems. |
| Keywords: | Technology, Game theory, Project Evaluation |
| JEL: | O19 O22 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82010&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo; Segbers, Franz |
| Abstract: | Franz Segbers hat 2015 ein Buch veröffentlicht, das den Titel trägt: „Ökonomie, die dem Leben dient. Die Menschenrechte als Grundlage einer christlichen Wirtschaftsethik“. Ich habe zu diesem Buch mehrere Stellungnahmen verfasst. Auf meine 2015 im ORDO-Jahrbuch (Band 66) erschienene Rezension hat Franz Segbers mit einem Brief reagiert, der hier mit seinem Einverständnis abgedruckt wird (Anhang 1). Ebenfalls abgedruckt wird mein Antwortbrief (Anhang 2), ein zweiter Brief von Franz Segbers an mich (Anhang 3) sowie meine abschließende Replik (Anhang 4). Die Publikation dieses Briefwechsels soll unserem gemeinsamen Anliegen dienlich sein, eine konstruktive wirtschaftsethische Debatte zwischen Theologen und Ökonomen zu fördern. |
| Keywords: | Wirtschaftsethik,Menschenrechte,Normativität,Business Ethics,Human Rights,Normativity |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201604&r=cta |
| By: | Lee, Sang-Ho; Xu, Lili |
| Abstract: | This paper considers an international bilateral trade model with corporate social responsibility (CSR) and examines the strategic interaction between tariffs and privatization policy. We demonstrate that strategic tariff in a private market is higher than that in a mixed market, while efficient tariff in a private market is lower than that in a mixed market. We then show that privatization policy raises strategic tariff and worsens (improves) domestic welfare when the degree of CSR is low (high). Further, we investigate endogenous choice of privatization policy and demonstrate that both the countries choose nationalization policy even though privatization policy is globally optimal when the degree of CSR is high. This indicates the existence of a prisoner’s dilemma in choosing privatization policy in a bilateral trade model with higher CSR. |
| Keywords: | Bilateral trade, Corporate social responsibility, Privatization, Tariff Policy |
| JEL: | D43 F12 L13 L33 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82042&r=cta |
| By: | AfDB AfDB |
| Date: | 2017–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2409&r=cta |
| By: | Zhou, Haiwen |
| Abstract: | The Confucianism school emphasizes family value, moral persuasions, and personal relations. Under Confucianism, there is a free-rider issue in the provision of efforts. Since national officials are chosen through personal relations, they may not be the most capable. The Legalism school emphasizes the usage of incentives and formal institutions. Under the Legalism, the ruler provides strong incentives to local officials which may lead to side effects because some activities are noncontractible. The cold-blood image of the Legalism may alien citizens. By exploiting the paternalistic relationship between the ruler and the ruled under Confucianism and the strength of institution-building under the Legalism, the ruler may benefit from a combination of Confucianism approach and the Legalism approach as the national strategy of governance. As each strategy has its pros and cons, which strategy of is optimal depends on factors such as the minimum enforceable level of public service and the level of institution building costs. |
| Keywords: | Confucianism, Legalism, national strategy of governance, ancient China, incentive provision, culture |
| JEL: | A10 H10 N45 |
| Date: | 2017–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81944&r=cta |
| By: | Florian Engl; Arno Riedl; Roberto A. Weber |
| Abstract: | Institutions are an important means for fostering prosocial behaviors, but in many contexts their scope is limited and they govern only a subset of all socially desirable acts. We use a laboratory experiment to study how the presence and nature of an institution that enforces prosocial behavior in one domain affects behavior in another domain and whether it also alters prosocial preferences and beliefs about others’ behavior. Groups play two identical public good games. We vary whether, for only one game, there is an institution enforcing cooperation and vary also whether the institution is imposed exogenously or arises endogenously through voting. Our results show that the presence of an institution in one game generally enhances cooperation in the other game thus documenting a positive spillover effect. These spillover effects are economically substantial amounting up to 30 to 40 percent of the direct effect of institutions. When the institution is determined endogenously spillover effects get stronger over time, whereas they do not show a trend when it is imposed exogenously. Additional treatments indicate that the main driver of this result is not the endogeneity but the temporal trend of the implemented institution. We also find that institutions of either type enhance prosocial preferences and beliefs about others’ prosocial behavior, even toward strangers, suggesting that both factors are drivers of the observed spillover effects. |
| Keywords: | public goods, institutions, spillover effect, social preferences, beliefs |
| JEL: | C92 D02 D72 H41 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6504&r=cta |
| By: | Javier Diaz Gimenez (IESE Business School); Javier Diaz Jimenez (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.) |
| Abstract: | This article con rms and quanti es the intuition that the consequences of independence for Catalonian residents will depend crucially on the long term growth rate of the new republic. It also shows that the demographic, educational, and productivity advantages of Catalonian residents, when compared with those of the rest of Spain, are not enough to ensure a more prosperous economic future for Catalonians or a more sustainable pension system. |
| Keywords: | Computable general equilibrium, social security reform, retirement. |
| JEL: | C68 H55 J26 |
| Date: | 2017–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gra:wpaper:17/04&r=cta |
| By: | Martin Wittenberg (Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, School of Economics, DataFirst, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | Comparing earnings in the tax assessment data to those in the QLFS, it appears that earnings of employees in the QLFS are underreported by perhaps 40%, with bigger gaps near the top of the distribution. Benefits and annual bonuses contribute substantially to the gap. In the case of self-employment incomes it is also the case that high earnings are missing or underreported in the QLFS, but the tax data seems to miss many mid- and low-income self-employed earners. These differences make sense when one considers the incentives for reporting accurately to SARS versus to Statistics South Africa. These errors mean that earnings inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient is probably underestimated in the surveys by three percentage points. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:212&r=cta |
| By: | Diebold, Francis X.; Liu, Laura; Yilmaz, Kamil |
| Abstract: | We use variance decompositions from high-dimensional vector autoregressions to characterize connectedness in 19 key commodity return volatilities, 2011-2016. We study both static (full-sample) and dynamic (rolling-sample) connectedness. We summarize and visualize the results using tools from network analysis. The results reveal clear clustering of commodities into groups that match traditional industry groupings, but with some notable differences. The energy sector is most important in terms of sending shocks to others, and energy, industrial metals, and precious metals are themselves tightly connected. |
| Keywords: | network centrality,network visualization,pairwise connectedness,total directional connectedness,total connectedness,vector autoregression,variance decomposition,LASSO |
| JEL: | G1 C3 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:575&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo; Hielscher, Stefan; Valentinov, Vladislav; Everding, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | Vor welchen Herausforderungen steht das Projekt der Bioökonomie, wenn man aus einer ordonomischen Perspektive auf das Phänomen eines demokratischen Diskursversagens blickt? Zwei Arten des Diskursversagens sind zu unterscheiden: (a) der Fehl-Alarm und (b) der Fehlende Alarm. Gerade im Hinblick auf bioökonomische Neuerungen müssen wir Governance-Strukturen entwickeln, um uns kollektiv in die Lage zu versetzen, das Falsche zu unterlassen und das Richtige zu tun. Nicht nur technische Innovationen, sondern auch institutionelle und ideative Innovationen sind für den nachhaltigen Erfolg (und die soziale Akzeptanz) der Bioökonomie von entscheidender Bedeutung. |
| Keywords: | Bioökonomie,Ordonomik,Nachhaltigkeit,Governance,Diskursversagen,Ordnungsverantwortung,bio-economy,ordonomics,sustainability,governance,discourse failure,ordo responsibility |
| JEL: | Q57 O13 O31 O38 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201702&r=cta |
| By: | Halkos, George; Papageorgiou, George |
| Abstract: | Public debt accumulation and pollution result to disutility while time path must be sustainable. Policy weapons available to the government with regard to public debt is the generation of primary surpluses to sustain public debt while concerning pollution environmental taxation is expected to reduce emissions. In this paper, we address these factors in a simple dynamic game in order to find ways at which the notions of public debt, pollution, and taxation are interrelated. The starting point of the model is the identity of current account as the equation of motion of public debt, while public debt is considering as a stock and the stress of the regulator is to raise the nation’s primary surplus. Nash and Stackelberg differential game solutions are used to explore the strategic interactions. In the Nash equilibrium establishment of cyclical strategies, during the game between the polluters in one hand and the government on the other, requires that the discount rate of the polluters must be greater than government’s discount rate. That is the polluters must be more impatient than the government. In the case of hierarchical setting, the analytical expressions of the strategic variables and the steady state value of public debt stock are provided. Furthermore, we found the analytical expressions of the value functions, making, therefore, the policy implications an easy task. Finally, we found the conditions under which the conflict is more intensive, in the two cases of equilibrium, according to the shadow price of the environmental damages. |
| Keywords: | Public debt; Pollution; Taxation; Dynamic games; Nash equilibrium; Stackelberg equilibrium. |
| JEL: | C72 H23 H62 Q52 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81982&r=cta |
| By: | Hinz, Tina; Mohrenweiser, Jens |
| Abstract: | The new training literature argues that imperfect labour market competition drives a wedge between productivity and wage increases in skills. We apply recent advancements in the estimation of production and wage functions to show a compressed wage structure in Germany. We also use regional and industry variation in labour market competitiveness and show that there is a premium on productivity and wages,but the productivity-wage wedge does not diminish in labour markets that are more competitive. |
| JEL: | J24 M53 R23 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168292&r=cta |
| By: | AfDB AfDB |
| Date: | 2017–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2401&r=cta |
| By: | Miguel D. Ramirez (Department of Economics, Trinity College) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the very important notion of capital from a Marxian perspective as opposed to a neoclassical one. It is argued that when capital is viewed as a historically determined social process (relation), rather than as a thing or a collection of things, it tends to assume certain specific forms more often than others depending on the particular stage of economic history. Capital thus refers simultaneously to social relations and to things. Given this frame of reference, notions such as money and property capital are more easily accommodated and consequently are not written off as financial or fictitious capital—not real capital—because they “produce nothing.” The paper also focuses on Marx’s important analysis of the time of production and the turnover of capital in terms of the production of surplus-value (profit). It then examines Marx’s equally important and prescient analysis of how the turnover speed of capital is affected by the time of circulation of commodities (the realization of surplus-value) and the growing use of credit (in its various forms) in the capitalist system. Finally, the paper turns its attention to the economic role of time as it relates to interest-bearing (loan) capital and Adam Smith’s important distinction between productive and unproductive labor—one whose clear comprehension rests on viewing capital as a social construct. |
| Keywords: | Capital; commodity capital; credit; crises; exchange-value; interest-bearing capital; money capital; productive capital; productive and unproductive labor; time of production and circulation; turnover speed of capital; rate of surplus-value (profit). |
| JEL: | B10 B14 B24 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tri:wpaper:1705&r=cta |
| By: | Debra Lynne Shepherd (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University) |
| Abstract: | Despite improvements over the past decade, South African women continue to be underrepresented in tertiary studies and professional careers in the fields of science, technology, engineering and math. This has implications not only for economic development and growth, but also for social inequality as women continue to have lower access to higher paying employment opportunities. Using data from the Trends in Mathematics and Science Study of 2011, this paper finds that whilst grade 9 girls in the poorest 80% of South African schools experience no difference in domain-specific performance, self-concept and motivation, girls in the wealthiest subset of schools are found to significantly underperform in both subjects, as well as possess lower self-concept and motivation, and higher anxiety. Teacher gender and education are shown to correlate with these results; specifically, female teachers with math backgrounds negatively influence girls’ performances in wealthy schools. This is argued to be in keeping with stereotype threat theory (Steele, 2003) whereby women that are highly identified with math are subject to greater anxiety and concern over their performance. The relative difference in the performance of girls taught by a female versus a male teacher compared to the performance of boys is smaller when exposed to teachers with education training, suggesting that classroom methodology plays a role in the attainment of girls. Student fixed effects estimation reveals that the teacher characteristics mentioned above play important roles for moderating the relationship between student self-concept and performance of boys and girls. |
| Keywords: | gender inequality, STEM, stereotype, performance, self-concept, development |
| JEL: | C21 I21 I24 J16 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers287&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo; Valentinov, Vladislav |
| Abstract: | Zivilgesellschaftliche Organisationen erfüllen in der modernen Demokratie zwei wichtige Funktionen. Zum einen stellen sie öffentliche Güter und Dienstleistungen bereit ('service delivery'). Zum anderen dienen sie der politischen Interessenvertretung ('advocacy'). Allerdings sehen sich zivilgesellschaftliche Organisationen gegenwärtig mit Anreizdefiziten konfrontiert, die systematisch zu zwei verschiedenen Arten von Diskursversagen führen, was ihre Advocacy-Funktion stark beeinträchtigen kann. Hiergegen hilft eine Ordnungspolitik zweiter Ordnung, die den zivilgesellschaftlichen Organisationen Anreize setzt, sich selbst zu regulieren. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201706&r=cta |
| By: | Geoffrey Heal, Anthony Millner |
| Abstract: | Uncertainty is ubiquitous in Environmental Economics. This is inevitable: we study the interactions between socioeconomic systems and biogeochemical systems, and in general neither of these is fully understood. Climate change is a good example: the scientific community understands some aspects of the behaviour of the climate system well, but others poorly. We are certainly no better off, and often worse off, when it comes to our understanding of economic systems. And we are particularly weak at the interactions between the two. Biodiversity loss is another important problem for which our lack of knowledge is striking. We are in the midst of a mass extinction comparable to those of prehistory, yet we have little formal understanding of why biodiversity matters to us or how to model the economic consequences of its loss. In this paper, the authors' treatment of uncertainty in environmental applications is motivated by two leading examples: climate change and biodiversity loss. They argue that in these cases uncertainty is sufficiently far-reaching that standard decision-making tools such as expected utility theory may no longer capture important aspects of our uncertainty preferences. Richer models of decision-making, which allow us to express lack of confidence in our information, may be more desirable. |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp278&r=cta |
| By: | Bello, Omar; Khamis, Marion; Osorio, Claudio; Peralta, Leda |
| Abstract: | This policy brief has the objective of profiling disaster risk management policies in five selected member states of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee: The Bahamas, Belize, The Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica, and analyze their interactions with broader development issues and instruments, such as national development plans and climate change adaptation strategies. To this end, firstly, it presents the five pillars for Disaster Risk Managenent (DRM), namely risk identification, risk reduction, preparedness, financial protection, and resilient recovery, as well as their applications to disaster assessments.1 Secondly, it describes the integration of DRM into development policies. The structure of the analysis will allow countries to identify strengths and weaknesses of the DRM policies and how they interact with other planning and development instruments. Finally, it presents policy recommendations to strengthen the role of DRM and to improve the use of resources through multisectoral projects that build resilience to disasters and climate change. |
| Keywords: | COOPERACION REGIONAL, PREVENCION DE DESASTRES, PREPARACION PARA CASOS DE DESASTRES, CAMBIO CLIMATICO, ESTRATEGIAS DEL DESARROLLO, PLANIFICACION DEL DESARROLLO, GOBERNABILIDAD, SEGURO CONTRA DESASTRES, MACROECONOMIA, ELABORACION DE POLITICAS, DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, PROYECTOS DE DESARROLLO, RECOMENDACIONES, ESTUDIOS DE CASOS, REGIONAL COOPERATION, DISASTER PREVENTION, DISASTER PREPAREDNESS, CLIMATE CHANGE, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES, DEVELOPMENT PLANNING, GOVERNANCE, DISASTER INSURANCE, MACROECONOMICS, POLICY-MAKING, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, RECOMMENDATIONS, CASE STUDIES |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col033:42175&r=cta |
| By: | Masaaki Fujii; Akihiko Takahashi; Masayuki Takahashi |
| Abstract: | We demonstrate that the use of asymptotic expansion as prior knowledge in the "deep BSDE solver", which is a deep learning method for high dimensional BSDEs proposed by Weinan E, Han & Jentzen (2017), drastically reduces the loss function and accelerates the speed of convergence. We illustrate the technique and its implications using Bergman's model with different lending and borrowing rates and a class of quadratic-growth BSDEs. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.07030&r=cta |
| By: | Krause, Manuela; Büttner, Thiess |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the role of fiscal equalization as a driver of states’ tax policy in Germany. We argue that fiscal redistribution of tax revenues provides an incentive for states to increase their tax rates. The analysis exploits differences in the degree of fiscal redistribution among the states over time. The results show a significant effect on tax policy: with full equalization of revenues from the real estate transfer tax the tax rate is about one percentage point higher than without. |
| JEL: | H20 H26 R38 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168214&r=cta |
| By: | Reif, Simon; Wichert, Sebastian; Wuppermann, Amelie |
| Abstract: | Birth weight manipulation is common in DRG systems. Hospitals receive more money for cases with weight below certain thresholds, which could benefit newborns. Also, some reimbursement thresholds overlap with diagnostic thresholds that have been shown to affect medical care. Based on all hospital births in Germany from 2005-2011, we investigate whether this triggers different care. We find that this is not the case, suggesting that financial incentives do not directly impact care for newborns. |
| JEL: | I11 I18 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168258&r=cta |
| By: | Elon Kohlberg; Abraham Neyman |
| Abstract: | A game of threats on a finite set of players, $N$, is a function $d$ that assigns a real number to any coalition, $S \subseteq N$, such that $d \left( S \right) = - d \left( N \setminus S \right)$. A game of threats is not necessarily a coalitional game as it may fail to satisfy the condition $d \left( \emptyset \right) = 0$. We show that analogs of the classic Shapley axioms for coaltional games determine a unique value for games of threats. This value assigns to each player an average of the threat powers, $d \left( S \right)$, of the coalitions that include the player. |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:huj:dispap:dp710&r=cta |
| By: | Alessandro Gavazza; Mattia Nardotto; Tommaso Valletti |
| Abstract: | We empirically study the effects of broadband internet diffusion on local election outcomes and on local government policies using rich data from the U.K. Our analysis suggests that the internet has displaced other media with greater news content (i.e., radio and newspapers), thereby decreasing voter turnout, most notably among less-educated and younger individuals. In turn, we find suggestive evidence that local government expenditures and taxes are lower in areas with greater broadband diffusion, particularly expenditures targeted at less-educated voters. Our findings are consistent with the idea that voters' information plays a key role in determining electoral participation, government policies and government size. |
| Keywords: | Internet, newspaper, media, elections, policy |
| JEL: | D72 C50 L86 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1691&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | 1942 hat Joseph A. Schumpeter 'Kapitalismus, Sozialismus und Demokratie' veröffentlicht. Dieses Buch vermag auch nach rund 75 Jahren immer noch zu faszinieren. Allerdings ist es nicht leicht zu verstehen, weil dem heutigen Lesepublikum viele Hintergrundinformationen nicht mehr ohne weiteres verfügbar sind. Insbesondere die ironische Grundstruktur des Buches hat zahlreiche Missverständnisse produziert. Vor diesem Hintergrund entwickelt der vorliegende Beitrag eine umfassende Interpretation, die Schumpeters Aussagen über Karl Marx, über den kapitalistischen Prozess der schöpferischen Zerstörung, über die Möglichkeit einer sozialistischen Ordnung sowie über die unwahrscheinliche Vereinbarkeit von Sozialismus und Demokratie allgemein verständlich rekonstruiert. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201704&r=cta |
| By: | Lauren E. Ellis; Nancy E. Kass |
| Abstract: | Despite growing interest in patient engagement in research, there are few empirical investigations of the nature of engagement and its effects. |
| Keywords: | patient engagement, research ethics, qualitative methods, patient-centered outcomes research |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:b0e1ecbc76214b9497cac621b839e55a&r=cta |
| By: | Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz |
| Abstract: | The ratio of financial to non-financial profits in the US economy has increased sharply since the 1970s, the period that is often called the financialisation of capitalism. By developing a two-sector theoretical model the ratio of financial to non-financial profits is shown to depend positively on the net interest margin and the non-interest income of banks, while it depends negatively on the general rate of profit, the non-interest expenses of banks, and the ratio of the capital stock to interest-earning assets. The model was estimated empirically for the post-war period and the results indicate that the ratio has varied mainly with respect to the net interest margin, although non-interest income has also played a significant role. The results confirm that in the course of financialisation the US financial sector has been able to extract rising profits through interest differentials and non-interest income, while the general rate of profit has remained broadly constant. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uta:papers:2017_06&r=cta |
| By: | Rappen, Hermann |
| Abstract: | Die strukturellen Haushaltsprobleme vieler Kommunen sind nicht erst gestern entstanden. Ihre Anfänge liegen in den 1980er Jahren. Die Länder haben zunächst versucht, den zunehmenden Finanzproblemen durch regulatorische Maßnahmen zu begegnen, allerdings konnte der Anstieg der kommunalen Kassenkredite nicht gestoppt werden. Eine Reihe von Ländern hat deshalb Rettungsschirme für Kommunen aufgespannt, um deren Schuldenspirale zu durchbrechen. In Nordrhein-Westfalen soll der "Stärkungspakt Stadtfinanzen" Kommunen, die überschuldet sind oder denen die Überschuldung droht, bei der Lösung ihrer Haushaltsprobleme unterstützen. Anders als bei den Hilfsprogrammen anderer Länder wird darin dem Haushaltsausgleich der Vorrang vor dem Schuldenabbau eingeräumt. Die vorliegende Studie zieht eine Zwischenbilanz des Stärkungspakts. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwimat:120&r=cta |
| By: | AfDB AfDB |
| Date: | 2017–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2411&r=cta |
| By: | Jiankun LU (Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics. Address: Xueyuan Street No. 18, Xiasha Higher Education Park, Hangzhou, China, 310018); Pi-Han Tsai (Zhejiang University. Address: 38 Zheda Rd, Xihu, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China, 310027) |
| Abstract: | Vertical accountability in China has long been considered as essentially indirect or informal. This paper provides evidence that direct local accountability may exist to a greater or lesser degree in China under current political institutions. By using provincial environmental petition data, this paper finds that the number of environmental petitions is positively associated with provincial governments' investments in pollution mitigation. The increased petitions serve as a signal to provincial leaders of the possibility of potential social instability. However, since "local" provincial party secretaries are better informed, the signaling effect of the petitions is lessened in these cases. |
| Keywords: | political signal; political accountability; environmental expenditure |
| JEL: | H11 H70 P26 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nan:wpaper:1711&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Dieser Aufsatz zeichnet aus einer ordonomischen Perspektive nach, wie das Revival der Tugendethik seit den späten 1950er Jahren eine philosophische Literatur tugendethischer Marktkritik hervorgebracht hat, die von Ökonomen argumentativ zurückgewiesen und in Form einer Tugendethik des Marktes konstruktiv überboten worden ist. Besonders betont wird, inwiefern diese Entwicklung - die Rehabilitierung der Tugendethik innerhalb der ökonomischen Theorie - dazu beitragen kann, die doppelte Herausforderung des Kommunitarismus besser zu bewältigen. Diese besteht darin, auf die Gesellschaftsfähigkeit von Gemeinschaften ebenso zu achten wie auf die Gemeinschaftsfähigkeit der modernen Gesellschaft. |
| Keywords: | Kommunitarismus,Tugendethik,Marktkritik,Tugenden des Marktes,Regelbefolgungsdiskurs,Regelfindungsdiskurs,Kolonialisierung der Lebenswelt,Kolonialisierung des Systems,Communitarianism,Virtue Ethics,Market Criticism,Market Virtues,Rule-following Discourse,Rule-finding Discourse,Colonialization of Life World,Colonialization of System |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201714&r=cta |
| By: | AfDB AfDB |
| Date: | 2017–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2403&r=cta |
| By: | Calzavara, M.; Sgarbossa, F.; Grosse, E. H.; Glock, C. H. |
| Date: | 2017–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:89665&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Dieser Artikel dokumentiert ein Interview zur Drogenpolitik. Erläutert werden die innen- und außenpolitischen Folgen der Prohibitionspolitik. Im Zentrum steht das Argument, dass Schwarzmärkte keinen Verbraucherschutz gewährleisten. |
| Keywords: | Drogenpolitik,Prohibition,Schwarzmarkt,Verbraucherschutz,Leistungswettbewerb,drug policy,prohibition,black markets,consumer protection,functional competition |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201605&r=cta |
| By: | Topi Miettinen; Michael Kosfeld; Ernst Fehr; Jörgen W. Weibull |
| Abstract: | We experimentally investigate behavior and beliefs in a sequential prisoner’s dilemma. Each subject had to choose an action as first-mover and a conditional action as second-mover. All subjects also had to state their beliefs about others’ second-mover choices. We find that subjects’ beliefs about others’ choices are fairly accurate on average. Using the elicited beliefs, we compare the explanatory power of a few current models of social and moral preferences. The data show clear differences in explanatory power between the preference models, both without and with control for the number of free parameters. The best-performing models explain about 80% of observed behavior. We use the estimated preference parameters to identify biases in subjects’ expectations. We find a consensus bias (whereby subjects believe others behave like themselves) and a certain optimism (whereby subjects overestimate probabilities for favorable outcomes), the former being about twice as strong as the second. |
| Keywords: | cooperation, prisoners’ dilemma, other-regarding preferences, categorical imperative, consensus effect, optimism |
| JEL: | C72 C90 D03 D84 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6358&r=cta |
| By: | Köppl-Turyna, Monika; Kantorowicz, Jarosław |
| Abstract: | We apply the difference-in-discontinuities design to disentangle the fiscal effects the governance system conditional on electoral systems. We take advantage of a natural experiment, which involves two institutional reforms in Poland. Our results indicate that a change from parliamentary to presidential form led to lower vertical fiscal imbalance predominantly in the jurisdictions with majoritarian elections and to a lesser extent in municipalities governed by proportional elections. |
| JEL: | D72 D78 H72 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168163&r=cta |
| By: | Alex Coad; Nanditha Mathew; Emanuele Pugliese |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of R&D investment on performance outcomes (sales growth and relative profitability) for Indian manufacturing firms. Previous research shows contradictory results - while some studies find a positive effect of R&D on firm performance, some find that firms investing in R&D do not perform significantly better, in some cases, even perform worse than their non-investing counterparts. We claim that the effects of R&D on performance are often mis-specified: The contradictory results are likely due to 1) inverse causality, i.e., firms invest in R&D as a function of sales growth and/or 2) a bias caused by censored data (i.e. R&D investment has a lower bound at zero). We apply endogenous switching regression to tackle the issue of selection and censored data, and the results we observe are sharp: firms investing in R&D would have had less growth and less relative profitability if they had not done so. Interestingly, firms that did not invest in R&D would not have benefited had they done so. |
| Keywords: | R&D investment, Firm performance, Endogenous switching |
| Date: | 2017–09–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2017/21&r=cta |
| By: | Gäbler, Stefanie; Potrafke, Niklas; Rösel, Felix |
| Abstract: | We examine whether compulsory voting (CV) influences habit-formation in voting asymmetrically across parties. We use a Differences-in-Differences and a Differences-in-Discontinuity approach to investigate the long-term effects of CV on turnout and party vote shares in Austria. The results show that CV increased turnout. When CV was abolished, turnout returned to the pre-compulsory level. We conclude that CV was not habit-forming and may have crowded out intrinsic motivation. |
| JEL: | D72 P16 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168074&r=cta |
| By: | Giovanni Caggiano (Department of Economics, Monash University); Efrem Castelnuovo (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research); Gabriela Nodari (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the role played by systematic monetary policy in the United States in tackling the real effects of uncertainty shocks in recessions and expansions. We model key indicators of the business cycle with a nonlinear vector autoregression model that allows for different dynamics in busts and booms. Uncertainty shocks are identified by focusing on historical events that are associated with jumps in financial volatility. Our results show that uncertainty shocks hitting in recessions trigger a more abrupt drop and a faster recovery in real economic activity than in expansions. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the effectiveness of systematic US monetary policy in stabilising real activity in the aftermath of an uncertainty shock is greater in expansions. Finally, we provide empirical and narrative evidence pointing to a risk management approach by the Federal Reserve. |
| Keywords: | uncertainty shocks; nonlinear smooth transition vector autoregressions; generalised impulse response functions; systematic monetary policy |
| JEL: | C32 E32 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2017-06&r=cta |
| By: | Tilman Brück; Patricia Justino; Charles Patrick MartinShields |
| Abstract: | We survey selected parts of the growing literature on the microeconomics of violent conflict, identifying where academic research has started to establish stylized facts and where methodological and knowledge gaps remain. We focus our review on the role of civilian agency in conflict; on wartime institutions; and on the private sector in conflict. Future research requires new and better sources of data on conflict and conflict impacts, including from household surveys in conflict-affected areas. Impact evaluations can also be valuable sources of insights about how conflict impacts on people and how peacebuilding and reconstruction can be improved. We also see the need for much more detailed studies on the long-term impacts of conflict; on the linkages between agriculture, food security, and conflict; on the role of technology for peace; and on the micro–macro linkages of conflict, as well its macroeconomic costs. Finally, future research would benefit from linking analysis of large-scale violent conflict with other forms of violence, instability, fragility, and humanitarian crises. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2017-178&r=cta |
| By: | Kollenbach, Gilbert |
| Abstract: | To analyze the effect of unilaterally tightened climate policies, we augment the two country model of Hoel (2011) with fossil fuel extraction costs. It turns out that a tighter climate policy of the country with the initially stricter policy causes neither a weak nor a strong green paradox if the fossil fuel stock is sufficiently small. In case of a tighter climate policy in the country with the initially laxer policy, a weak green paradox depends on the price-elasticity of energy demand. |
| JEL: | Q41 Q42 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168245&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Die Ordonomik versteht sich als Methode zur systematischen Generierung von Überbietungsargumenten. Solche Argumente können - als orthogonale Positionierung zu wertstrittigen Tradeoff-Vorstellungen - einem Diskursversagen entgegenwirken. Dies ist wichtig im Hinblick auf Fragen der gesellschaftlichen (Selbst-)Steuerung durch eine (Re-)Formierung institutioneller Handlungsanreize sowie im Hinblick auf Fragen der gesellschaftlichen (Selbst-)Aufklärung durch eine (Re-)Formierung begrifflich sedimentierter Denkstrukturen. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201703&r=cta |
| By: | Trevor Burnard; Laura Panza; Jeffrey G. Williamson |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first quantitative assessment of Jamaican standards of living and income inequality around 1774. To this purpose we compute welfare ratios for a range of occupations and build a social table. We find that the slave colony had extremely high living costs, which rose steeply during the American War of Independence, and low standards of living, particularly for its enslaved population. Our results also show that due to its extreme poverty surrounding extreme wealth Jamaica was the most unequal place in the pre-modern world. Furthermore, all of these characteristics applied to the free population alone. |
| JEL: | N16 N36 O54 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23897&r=cta |
| By: | Wagner, Alexander K.; Granic, Dura-Georg |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of voting power in a committee in which one member (the chairman) holds, on top of a regular vote, also the power to break ties. The chairman is able to induce her preferred outcome much more often than predicted by theory, but only partially because of exercising tie-breaking power directly. The advantage of the chairman is largely determined by the limited strategic sophistication of committee members. |
| JEL: | C91 C92 D71 D72 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168187&r=cta |
| By: | Garry, Stefanie; Parada Gómez, Álvaro Martín; Salido Marcos, Joaquín |
| Abstract: | En este documento se ofrece una propuesta para el fortalecimiento de la cadena de valor de la miel de abeja y para la incorporación de valor agregado a los productos derivados de la colmena en la región del Pacífico Central costarricense. El proceso se llevó a cabo mediante un acuerdo de cooperación técnica entre el Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Comercio de Costa Rica (MEIC) y la Sede Subregional de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) en México, en el marco de las actividades del proyecto CEPAL-CRUSA “Fortalecimiento de dos cadenas de valor con alto potencial de encadenamientos para PYME en el Pacífico Central costarricense”. |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:42232&r=cta |
| By: | Yong Wang (Assitant Professor, Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | Yong Wang, Assistant Professor of Economics and Faculty Associates of HKUST IEMS, discussed how government involvement can make or break industrial development as well as social welfare. He pointed out that successful industrial policy should involve dynamic strategic adjustments and the promotion of a given industry in phases, rather than all-at-once. In particular, he cautioned that industrial upgrading may present a challenge to social stability in countries like China, where accelerated industrial upgrading may displace lower-skilled workers and reduces jobs. |
| Keywords: | Industrial development, industrialization, policy |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:briefs:201613&r=cta |
| By: | Luciano Fanti; Luca Gori |
| Abstract: | This article revisits the works of Lambertini and Rossini (1998) and Bernhofen and Bernhofen (1999) and also extends the analysis to the effects of product innovation in Cournot and Bertrand duopolies with sales delegation. |
| Keywords: | Duopoly; Product innovation; Sales delegation |
| JEL: | D43 J53 L1 |
| Date: | 2017–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2017/223&r=cta |
| By: | von Weizsäcker, Carl Christian |
| Abstract: | Vor dem Hintergrund einer wachsenden Weltbevölkerung ist für Deutschland für das Jahr 2060 eine Bevölkerung von 90 Millionen wahrscheinlicher als die offiziell vorausgesagte Abnahme auf 70 Millionen. Einer im nächsten halben Jahrhundert stabilen Einwohnerzahl Deutschlands entspricht eine jährliche Nettozuwanderung von 350.000 Menschen. Um in den reichen Ländern die Zuwanderung aus der Dritten Welt unter Kontrolle zu halten, ist eine Global-Soziale Marktwirtschaft erforderlich. So müssen insbesondere die Importe von Industriewaren aus der Dritten Welt in die reichen Länder massiv ansteigen: Zuwanderung von Waren statt von Menschen. So kann in den Ländern der Dritten Welt das Lernen der erfolgreichen Wirtschaftsweise der reichen Länder erheblich beschleunigt werden. |
| Keywords: | Weltbevölkerung,Nettozuwanderung Deutschland,Global-Soziale Marktwirtschaft,Leistungsbilanz Dritte Welt,global population,net immigration Germany,global social market economy,trade balance third world |
| JEL: | J11 F22 F13 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201609&r=cta |
| By: | Kvedaras, Virmantas (European Commission – JRC) |
| Abstract: | The influence of financial deepening on income inequality in developed economies is studied with particular interest in the European Union member states that have large penetration of bank credit. Building on the model of financially open economies (Kunieda et al, 2014) and extending its implications for the top-income shares, it is shown that a simultaneous increase in private bank credit relative to the gross domestic product (GDP) and the gap between real interest rate and GDP growth rate increases inequality, as measured by both the Gini index and the top-income shares. To establish the effect on the top-income shares, a simultaneous estimation procedure is proposed that exploits the implications of the fact that a higher income range is well-characterized by the Pareto distribution. |
| Keywords: | credit, financial deepening, European Union, income inequality |
| JEL: | D31 E51 G21 O16 O41 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrs:wpaper:201706&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Dieser Text wurde für die Bundeszentrale für Politische Bildung (bpb) verfasst. Er stellt in stark geraffter Thesenform dar, dass und warum die gegen Indexfonds gerichteten Vorwürfe haltlos sind: Indexfonds sind keine Hungermacher. Die im letzten Jahrzehnt zu beobachtenden starken Preissteigerungen für Agrarrohstoffe hatten primär realwirtschaftliche, nicht finanzwirtschaftliche Ursachen. Die sorgenvolle Warnung vor der Agrarspekulation durch Indexfonds muss deshalb als Fehl-Alarm eingestuft werden. |
| Keywords: | Agrarspekulation,Indexfonds,Hunger,Fehl-Alarm,agricultural speculation,index funds,hunger,false alarm |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201608&r=cta |
| By: | Heinz Welsch (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Jan Kuehling (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Recent literature has found that individuals holding a greener self-image display higher levels of life satisfaction. We extend the single-country setting of that research to a transnational perspective and explore whether a relationship exists between green self-image (GSI) and life satisfaction (LS), both European-wide and at the national level. In order to explain differences in the GSI-LS relationship across nations and time, we study the role of pro-environmental values as a shared social norm. We find a significantly positive GSI-LS relationship in a pool of 35 European countries and in the majority of individual countries. In addition, we show that the well-being benefit of holding a green self-image is greater in societies that are less divided with respect to environmental attitudes, that is, where being green is a shared social norm. |
| Keywords: | green self-image; subjective well-being; life satisfaction; social norm; social division |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:404&r=cta |
| By: | Midori Otani (Ph.D., Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP)) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how parental involvement is associated with academic achievement by comparing the associations of parental involvement across three criteria: elementary and middle school (school level), male and female (gender), and math and science (subject). Also, it examines whether students' attitudes towards the subjects and academic aspiration mediate the relationship. A nationally representative sample of elementary and middle school children in Japan (1,884 female students and 140 schools and 1,894 male students and 139 schools in fourth grade, and 1,812 female students and 133 schools and 1,789 male students and 131 schools in eighth grade) from Trends International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2011 was used for the analysis. Results show that parental involvement is associated with students’ educational outcome. Students’ attitude and aspiration mediate the associations between parental involvement and academic achievement. The associations between parental involvement and academic achievement vary according to the school level, gender, and the subjects. Especially, different association between monitoring types of involvement and achievement is found between elementary and middle school. |
| Keywords: | Weather Parental Involvement, TIMSS, Elementary school, Middle school, Mathematics, Science, Japan |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osp:wpaper:17e003&r=cta |
| By: | Hielscher, Stefan; Winkin, Jan; Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Though research in the field of business and society is increasingly involved with the sector of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and their advocacy function, in particular in relation to business corporations, the literature remains largely silent on how feasible reforms can help establish public trust in and credibility of NGOs by improving the quality and reliability of their contributions to real-life public discourses. In an effort to fill this gap, we argue that fostering the collective credibility of NGO advocacy requires focusing on the level of governance of NGO accountability. Based on a fundamental conceptual distinction between a private-goods dimension and a public-goods dimension of NGO accountability, we can show that semantic confusion can complicate functional solutions to establish collective NGO credibility and public trust. We illustrate our argument with a case study of a worldwide governance initiative in this sector, the „INGO-Accountability Charter“, including qualitative-empirical results on five expert interviews with representatives of NGO member organizations. |
| Keywords: | Business-NGO Relations,NGO Accountability,Public Discourse,Governance,Ordonomics,Business-NGO-Beziehungen,NGO Accountability,Öffentliche Diskurse,Governance,Ordonomik |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201603&r=cta |
| By: | D'Acunto, Francesco; Weber, Michael; Yang, Shuyao |
| Abstract: | Manpower constraints are the pervasive lack of specialized high- and low-skill workers, irrespective of the wage firms might offer. |
| JEL: | J21 J31 J61 G31 G32 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168109&r=cta |
| By: | Navarro, Lucas; Pellandra, Andrea |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo analiza el impacto en empleo y salarios a nivel de empresa del shock negativo en las exportaciones de firmas manufactureras de Colombia a Venezuela luego del corte de relaciones diplomáticas con ese país a fines de 2008. Para la estimación, se utilizan datos al nivel de firmas de la Encuesta Anual Manufacturera combinados con datos administrativos de exportaciones a nivel de productos y destinos. |
| Keywords: | EMPRESAS MANUFACTURERAS, CONDICIONES ECONOMICAS, EMPLEO, SALARIOS, EXPORTACIONES, COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL, MANUFACTURING ENTERPRISES, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, EXPORTS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col025:42172&r=cta |
| By: | Osoro, Otieno; Voeten, Jaap (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:6a75bba4-dd50-475c-a0f7-65c9ebfbd980&r=cta |
| By: | Macdonald, Ryan |
| Abstract: | Le Canada est une nation commercante qui produit des quantites importantes d?extrants liees aux ressources. Ainsi, le comportement des prix des ressources qui revetent de l?importance pour le Canada est pertinent, afin de comprendre les progres de la croissance des revenus reels et la prosperite du pays et des provinces. Les brusques variations de la demande et de l?offre ou les changements a la politique monetaire sur les marches internationaux peuvent avoir une enorme influence sur le prix des ressources. Les fluctuations sont un facteur important de transmission des bouleversements externes au sein de l?economie nationale. Le present document comporte des estimations historiques de l?indice des prix des produits de base de la Banque du Canada (IPPB) et les couple a des estimations modernes. Au moyen d?un ensemble de sources de donnees historiques, il evalue les poids et les prix d?une maniere suffisamment coherente pour permettre l?etablissement d?estimations a long terme qui pourraient etre couplees a l?IPPB de Fisher moderne. |
| Keywords: | Economic accounts, History and context, Prices and price indexes, Statistical methods |
| Date: | 2017–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp3f:2017399f&r=cta |
| By: | Morlok, Tina; Matt, Christian; Hess, Thomas |
| Abstract: | [Einleitung ...] Dieser Beitrag zielt darauf ab, auf Basis einer systematischen Literaturanalyse einen Überblick über die wesentlichen Forschungsstränge zum Konzept Privatheit in der WiWi-Literatur zu geben. Dabei steht im Vordergrund zu beantworten, was das Privatheitsverständnis in den WiWi ist und welche zentralen Forschungsfelder sich - auf Basis der drei wesentlichen Perspektiven der WiWi - unterscheiden lassen. In einer detaillierteren Darstellung stellen wir zudem die Ergebnisse aus der Literaturanalyse aus Konsumenten-, Anbieter- und Marktperspektive bereit. Der Beitrag führt zudem auf, welche Forschungslücken aktuell noch in den WiWi bestehen und welche Themen künftig stärker adressiert werden (sollten). Der vorliegende Beitrag ist wie folgt strukturiert: In Kapitel 2 beschreiben wir, wie wir die systematische Literaturanalyse durchgeführt haben. In Kapitel 3 stellen wir, ebenfalls noch einleitend, das Privatheitsverständnis in den WiWi vor. Die Kapitel 4 bis 6 liefern die Ergebnisse der Literaturanalyse und umfassen die wesentlichen Forschungsstränge in den WiWi. Der Beitrag schließt mit einem Fazit und einem Ausblick für künftige Forschungsthemen in den WiWi (Kapitel 7). [...] |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:lmuwim:12017&r=cta |
| By: | Ritter-Hayashi, D.; Voeten, Jaap (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:5baca0e0-cd74-4bb2-bc45-517cea3fdee2&r=cta |
| By: | Grace Anglin; Ha Tu; Kristie Liao; Laura Sessums; Erin Fries Taylor |
| Abstract: | With increasing frequency, public and private payers are joining forces to align goals and resources for primary care transformation. |
| Keywords: | insurance carriers, practice transformation, primary health care, public-private sector partnerships |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:85ac6d6c07db42f3be83a4098a9fee93&r=cta |
| By: | Tobias Thomas; Moritz Heß; Gert G. Wagner |
| Abstract: | As from a political economy perspective, politicians often fail to implement structural reforms, we investigate if the resistance to reform is based on the differences in the risk preferences of voters, politicians, and bureaucrats. Based on the empirical results of a survey of the population in Germany, 175 members of the Federal German Parliament (Bundestag), and 106 officials (“bureaucrats”) from German ministries, this is not the case. Since both politicians and bureaucrats have a higher risk appetite than the general population, their risk preferences cannot be seen as an explanation for the resistance to structural reform. Hence, it must be caused by other reasons. These can be for instance – as public choice scholars argue – interventions by veto players, wars of attrition by powerful interest groups, or reform logjams initiated. However, another point of view could be that modern democracies are doing better than many believe. During times of populist campaigns, the election process can put forth candidates with very high risk appetites, but the constitutions of democracies turn out to be rather smart if hazardous actions and measures by political rookies and gamblers are inhibited by checks and balances. |
| Keywords: | Political reforms, political decision-making, principal agent-theory, risk aversion, German, SOEP |
| JEL: | D71 D78 H11 H70 P16 Z13 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp933&r=cta |
| By: | Abhiroop Mukherjee (Associate Professor, Department of Finance, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Alminas Zaldokas (Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | Abhiroop Mukherjee and Alminas Zaldokas, HKUST IEMS Faculty Associates, examined how tax changes influence patenting activity in corporations, and found that tax increases would likely lead to lower innovation, but it would not be easy to reverse these losses quickly by cutting taxes back later. |
| Keywords: | corporate governance, development, emerging market and developing economies, emerging markets, innovation, patents, R&D, research and development |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:briefs:201616&r=cta |
| By: | Sonntag, Axel; Zizzo, Daniel John |
| Abstract: | In a repeated real effort team production experiment workers receive a distorted signal about their co-players’ previous efforts. We vary the degree to which production can be directly traced back to a participant’s real or randomly drawn effort level. We find that individuals produce much less and the decline of contributions over time is significantly steeper under high as compared to low accountability. In an additional endogenous accountability condition observe the highest effort level. |
| JEL: | C91 D82 M54 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168235&r=cta |
| By: | Herreros, Sebastián; García-Millán, Tania |
| Abstract: | El presente documento analiza los avances de la Alianza del Pacífico (AP) y el MERCOSUR en la regulación internacional de la inversión extranjera. A partir de dicho análisis, se delinean los posibles contenidos de un eventual acuerdo sobre inversión entre ambas agrupaciones. De este modo se espera contribuir con propuestas sustantivas a la agenda en curso de "convergencia en la diversidad". |
| Keywords: | INTEGRACION ECONOMICA, INVERSION EXTRANJERA DIRECTA, REGULACION ECONOMICA, ACUERDOS ECONOMICOS, MERCOSUR, CONTROVERSIAS COMERCIALES INTERNACIONALES, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, ECONOMIC REGULATION, ECONOMIC AGREEMENTS, MERCOSUR, TRADE DISPUTES |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col025:42176&r=cta |
| By: | Karluk, S. Rıdvan; Unal, Umut |
| Abstract: | Bu çalışmanın ana amacı yoksulluk, yolsuzluk ve gelir dağılımı arasında bir ilişkinin olup olmadığını belirlemektir. Bu amaçla literatürde ilk defa Gini katsayısı ve yolsuzluk algı endeksi arasındaki korelasyona, başta Türkiye olmak üzere, verilerin elde edilebilir olduğu ülkeler için bakılmıştır. Sonuçlar Gini katsayısı ve yolsuzluk algı endeksi arasında, Arjantin ve Kolombiya haricindeki ülkeler için, negatif bir ilişki olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu, “gelir dağılımı ne kadar adilse yolsuzluk o kadar azdır” veya “yolsuzluğun fazla olduğu ülkelerde gelir dağılımı daha adaletsizdir” şeklinde yorumlanmaktadır. Analizin yapıldığı ülkeler arasında bahsi geçen negatif ilişkinin en güçlü olduğu ülkenin Türkiye olması dikkat çekmektedir. |
| Keywords: | Gelir Dağılımı, Yolsuzluk, Yoksulluk, Gini Katsayısı |
| JEL: | D3 D30 |
| Date: | 2017–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70118&r=cta |
| By: | Kirschbaum, Birgit; Soretz, Susanne |
| Abstract: | We analyse an endogenous growth model with pollution and abatement. Human capital is used in the production sector as well as in pollution control. We show that greener preferences may increase the pollution level, driven by the decrease in human capital intensity in the production sector and the human capital reallocation. This can help to explain why environmental quality in emerging countries frequently deteriorates. |
| JEL: | O1 O4 Q2 Q5 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168186&r=cta |
| By: | Mamoon, Dawood |
| Abstract: | General Musharraf ruled the country as a self proclaimed enlightened dictator. His politics is as repressive as has been the case of any dictatorial regime. However the paper suggests that he did make a genuine effort to uphold Pakistani economy that witnessed recessionary trends in 1990s. This paper is a critical analysis of Musharraf’s politics in contrast to his economic policies. |
| Keywords: | Politics, Macro-Economy, Institutions |
| JEL: | Z0 Z1 Z18 |
| Date: | 2017–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81977&r=cta |
| By: | Vorobyev, Oleg Yu. |
| Abstract: | The pairwise independence of events does not entail their setwise independence (Bernstein’s example, 1910-1917). The probability distributions of all pairs of events do not determine the probability distribution of the whole set of events (the triangular room paradox of negative probabilities of events [8, 9, 2001]). The pairwise preferences of events do not determine their setwise preferences (Blyth’s paradox, 1972). The eventological theory of setwise event preferences, proposed in [8, 2007], gives an event justification and extension of the classical theory of preferences and explains Blyth’s paradox «of three pies»1 (that was already well-known to Yule2) by human ability to use triplewise and morewise preferences. |
| Keywords: | Eventology, event, probability, preference, pairwise event preferences, setwise event preferences, theory of setwise event preferences. |
| JEL: | A1 A14 C0 C02 C4 C46 C6 C63 C65 Z1 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81897&r=cta |
| By: | Klein, Mathias; Winkler, Roland |
| Abstract: | We show that the distributional consequences of fiscal consolidations depend significantly on the level of private indebtedness. Austerity leads to a strong and persistent increase in income inequality when private debt is high. In contrast, there are no discernible distributional effects when private debt is low. This result is robust to alternative identifications of consolidations, to different ways of defining high and low debt states, and to controlling for the state of the business cycle. |
| JEL: | E62 E64 D63 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168076&r=cta |
| By: | Vorobyev, Oleg Yu. |
| Abstract: | Here an improved generalization of Feynman’s paradox of negative probabilities [1, 2] for observing three events is considered. This version of the paradox is directly related to the theory of quantum computing. Imagine a triangular room with three windows, where there are three chairs, on each of which a person can seat [4]. In any of the windows, an observer can see only the corresponding pair of chairs. It is known that if the observer looks at a window (to make a pairwise observation), the picture will be in the probabilistic sense the same for all windows: only one chair from the observed pair is occupied with a probability of 1/2, and there are never busy or free both chairs at once. Paradoxically, existing theories based on Kolmogorov’s probability theory do not answer the question that naturally arises after such pairs of observations of three events: «What is really happening in a triangular room, how many people are there and with what is the probability distribution they are sitting on three chairs?». |
| Keywords: | Eventology, event, probability, triangle room paradox of negative probabilities, quantum computing, event as a superposition of two states. |
| JEL: | A10 C0 C02 C4 C46 C6 C60 C65 Z1 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81894&r=cta |
| By: | AfDB AfDB |
| Date: | 2017–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2407&r=cta |
| By: | von Grebmer, Klaus; Bernstein, Jill; Hossain, Naomi; Brown, Tracy; Prasai, Nilam; Yohannes, Yisehac; Patterson, Fraser; Sonntag, Andrea; Zimmerman, Sophia-Maria; Towey, Olive; Foley, Connell |
| Abstract: | Der Welthunger-Index (WHI) 2017 ist der zwölfte in einer Reihe jährlicher Berichte, in denen die Hungersituation weltweit, nach Regionen, auf Länder- und auf nationaler Ebene mithilfe eines multidimensionalen Ansatzes dargestellt wird. Er zeigt, dass seit dem Jahr 2000 weltweit Fortschritte bei der Bekämpfung von Hunger gemacht wurden, die jedoch mit noch immer „ernsten“ oder „sehr ernsten“ Hungerwerten in 51 Ländern sowie einem „gravierenden“ Wert in einem Land ungleich verteilt sind. Der vorliegende Bericht beleuchtet die Ungleichheiten, die dem Hunger zugrunde liegen, etwa geografische Ungleichheit, Einkommensungleichheit und Ungleichheit zwischen den Geschlechtern sowie die Ungleichverteilung sozialer, politischer und ökonomischer Macht, in der jene verwurzelt sind. |
| Keywords: | Americas; South America; Europe; Asia; Africa South of Sahara; Africa; hunger; nutrition; health; malnutrition; gender; women; income; economic development; food policies; food security; nutrition security; inequality |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:synops:9780896292765&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Ökonomische Bildung 1.0 vermittelt Wirtschaftskunde. Ökonomische Bildung 2.0 vermittelt die sozialwissenschaftliche Perspektive ökonomischen Denkens. Es geht um Theorie-'Bildung'. Zentral hierfür ist die spezifisch ökonomische Denkfigur nicht-intendierter Folgen intentionalen Handelns. Sie führt zu den drei Einsichten, (a) dass sich diese Folgen institutionell kanalisieren lassen, (b) dass die Rahmenbedingungen einer solchen Kanalisierung mittels politischer (Re-)Formierung gestaltbar sind und (c) dass dies im weltweiten Maßstab zur Verwirklichung moralischer Anliegen beitragen kann. Ökonomische Bildung 2.0 im Schulunterricht trägt uno actu zur wirtschaftlichen, moralischen und politischen Aufklärung der Schülerinnen und Schüler bei, indem sie diese befähigt, mit Hilfe der ökonomischen Argumentationsfigur nicht-intendierter Effekte intentionalen Handelns selbstständig zu denken. Auf diese Weise lässt sich die Kompetenz vermitteln, die im alltagsweltlichen Denken weit verbreiteten intentionalistischen Fehlschlüsse eigenständig zu identifizieren und zu korrigieren. |
| Keywords: | Ökonomische Bildung,Ordonomik,intentionalistischer Fehlschluss,Verschwörungstheorie,economic education,ordonomics,intentionalistic fallacy,conspirational theory |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201713&r=cta |
| By: | Giorgio Fagiolo; Mattia Guerini; Francesco Lamperti; Alessio Moneta; Andrea Roventini |
| Abstract: | Since the influential survey by Windrum et al. (2007), research on empirical validation of agent-based models in economics has made substantial advances, thanks to a constant flow of high-quality contributions. This Chapter attempts to take stock of such recent literature to offer an updated critical review of existing validation techniques. We sketch a simple theoretical framework that conceptualizes existing validation approaches, which we discuss along three different dimensions: (i) comparison between artificial and real-world data; (ii) calibration and estimation of model parameters; and (iii) parameter space exploration. |
| Keywords: | agent based models, validation, calibration, sensitivity analysis, parameter space exploration |
| Date: | 2017–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2017/23&r=cta |
| By: | Sterzel, André; Neyer, Ulrike |
| Abstract: | Banks hold relatively large amounts of government bonds. Large sovereign exposures reinforce possible financial contagion effects from sovereigns to banks and are a risk for financial stability. Using a theoretical model, we find that the introduction of capital requirements for government bonds induce banks to decrease their investment in government bonds and to increase their investment in high yield assets. This implies that banks' balance sheets become more resilient. |
| JEL: | G28 G21 G01 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168172&r=cta |
| By: | Michaels, Guy (London School of Economics); Nigmatulina, Dzhamilya (London School of Economics); Rauch, Ferdinand (University of Oxford); Regan, Tanner (London School of Economics); Baruah, Neeraj (London School of Economics); Dahlstrand-Rudin, Amanda (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | What are the long run consequences of planning and providing basic infrastructure in neighborhoods, where people build their own homes? We study "Sites and Services" projects implemented in seven Tanzanian cities during the 1970s and 1980s, half of which provided infrastructure in previously unpopulated areas (de novo neighborhoods), while the other half upgraded squatter settlements. Using satellite images and surveys from the 2010s, we find that de novo neighborhoods developed better housing than adjacent residential areas (control areas) that were also initially unpopulated. Specifically, de novo neighborhood are more orderly and their buildings have larger footprint areas and are more likely to have multiple stories, as well as connections to electricity and water, basic sanitation and access to roads. And though de novo neighborhoods generally attracted better educated residents than control areas, the educational difference is too small to account for the large difference in residential quality that we find. While we have no natural counterfactual for the upgrading areas, descriptive evidence suggests that they are if anything worse than the control areas. |
| Keywords: | urban economics, economic development, slums, Africa |
| JEL: | R31 O18 R14 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11036&r=cta |
| By: | Xin Huang (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University); Koichi Nakagawa (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University); Jie Li (School of Management, Shanghai University) |
| Abstract: | Employing data from Chinese companies listed on the board for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), the research examines the relationship between top management team (TMT) characteristics and corporate charitable activities in China. My findings confirm: 1) Firms less engaged in charitable activities are likely to have TMTs characterized by more educational specialty in science and engineering, and more functional background in output functions; 2) TMT age heterogeneity has a significant and positive effect on corporate charitable activities, while TMT educational specialty heterogeneity has a negative influence on corporate charitable activities; 3) TMT age, tenure, educational level and these heterogeneities of tenure, educational level and functional background have little or no influence on corporate charitable activities. Based on the upper echelons theory, the study can provide evidence for further research on top management teams and corporate social responsibility in an emerging economy. |
| Keywords: | top management team; charity; heterogeneity; corporate social responsibility; Chinese companies |
| JEL: | M54 M12 M14 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:1730&r=cta |
| By: | Lingqi Gu; Yiqing Lin; Junjian Yang |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the num\'eraire-based utility maximization problem in markets with proportional transaction costs. In particular, the investor is required to liquidate all her position in stock at the terminal time. We first observe the stability of the primal and dual value functions as well as the convergence of the primal and dual optimizers when perturbations occur on the utility function and on the physical probability. We then study the properties of the optimal dual process (ODP), that is, a process from the dual domain that induces the optimality of the dual problem. When the market is driven by a continuous process, we construct the ODP for the problem in the limiting market by a sequence of ODPs corresponding to the problems with small misspecificated parameters. Moreover, we prove that this limiting ODP defines a shadow price. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.04363&r=cta |
| By: | Kaniovski, Serguei |
| Abstract: | The paper offers a complete analysis of the welfare-maximizing capital investment and resource depletion policies in the DHSS model with capital depreciation and any returns to scale. We establish a general existence result and show that an optimal admissible policy may not exist if the output elasticity of the resource equals one. We characterize the optimal policies by applying an appropriate version of the Pontryagin maximum principle for infinite-horizon optimal control problems. |
| JEL: | C61 O38 Q01 Q56 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168079&r=cta |
| By: | Indra Erichsen (Europa-Universität Flensburg, Internationales Institut für Management) |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fln:wpaper:025&r=cta |
| By: | Francesco Decarolis (Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance, Via Sallustiana, 62, Rome, Italy); Gabriele Rovigatti (University of Chicago Booth School of Business, 5807 S. Woodlawn Ave, Chicago, IL) |
| Abstract: | We present an empirical investigation of the role of marketing agencies in Google’s online ad auctions. By combining data on advertisers’ affiliation to marketing agencies with data on bidding in ad auctions, we analyze how changes in the concentration of clients in the same industry under the same ad network are associated with changes in keyword bidding in terms of entry, exit, and pricing strategies. Moreover, by exploiting the case of a recent merger between agencies, we estimate through a difference-in-differences strategy that an increase in concentration leads to reduction in the average cost-per-click of the keywords affected by the merger. |
| Keywords: | Online Advertising, Internet Auctions, Marketing Agency, Ad Network, Agency Trading Desk |
| JEL: | C72 D44 L81 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:1708&r=cta |
| By: | AfDB AfDB |
| Date: | 2017–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:2408&r=cta |
| By: | Marcela Morales; Mireya Villacis Taco; Vanessa Gutierrez Reyes; Juan Jose Herrera |
| Abstract: | This study contributes to the understanding of the implications of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) implementation by presenting and analysing the case of Ecuador, based on lessons learned from implementing the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In general, the country will have to enhance its existing mechanisms to monitor the accomplishment of the SDGs in order to identify the areas where it will require further attention and more efforts, such as maternal and child mortality, gender equity and sustainability. It is also important and necessary to take full advantage of the existing institutional capacities and identify areas for improvement. In this sense, the monitoring process of the SDGs will have to include higher participation levels from institutions at the national level and stronger coordination with sub-national governments to observe the implementation and adaptation of goals and targets to the local realities. Among the main challenges for the country are the financial issues. A possible economic crisis might affect the country’s priorities in terms of funding and might have an impact on the adoption of the SDGs. This paper examines five key areas as a basis for further discussion and deeper analysis such as the integration of the SDGs in the national planning process; coordination, management and leadership; adequacy of financing and other means of implementation; partnership and stakeholder participation; and the capacity of national statistical agencies. |
| Keywords: | Ecuador, national-level challenges, SDG implementation, National Plan for Good Living (NPGL), National Decentralized Participatory Planning System (NDPPS), SEN National Statistics System (SEN), priorities in state budget |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svo:opaper:35&r=cta |
| By: | Koch, Christian; Nikiforakis, Nikos; Kamm, Aaron |
| Abstract: | In this study, we present evidence from a novel tax experiment featuring multiple equilbria. In the field, countries such as Greece seem to be stuck in a bad equilibrium with persistent high tax evasion while countries such as Germany seem to be in good equilibrium with persistent high compliance. Relatedly, our setting enables us to study our lab societies’ initial equilibrium selection and to what extent their compliance level is path dependent, i.e. depends on historical experience. |
| JEL: | C92 H26 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168271&r=cta |
| By: | Charles F. Manski |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses how limited ability to assess patient risk of illness and predict treatment response may affect the welfare achieved by adherence to clinical practice guidelines and by decentralized clinical practice. I explain why predictive ability has been limited, calling attention to imperfections in clinical judgment and to questionable methodological practices in the research that supports evidence-based medicine. I discuss recent econometric research that can improve the ability of guideline developers and clinicians to predict patient outcomes. Recognizing that uncertainty will continue to afflict medical decision making, I apply basic decision theory to suggest reasonable decision criteria with well-understood welfare properties. |
| JEL: | C4 D81 I10 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23915&r=cta |
| By: | Lisa I. Iezzoni; Holly Matulewicz; Sarah A. Marsella; Kimberley S. Warsett; Dennis Heaphy; Karen Donelan |
| Abstract: | When assessing results of health care delivery system reforms targeting persons with disability, quality metrics must reflect the experiences and perspectives of this population. |
| Keywords: | Disability, Quality, Measurement, Survey, Medicare, Medicaid |
| JEL: | I J |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:25faf1d51c6344be8e5eba36a5353246&r=cta |
| By: | Leonardo Baccini; Giammario Impullitti; Edmund J. Malesky |
| Abstract: | What do state-owned enterprises (SOEs) do? How do they respond to market incentives? Can we expect substantial efficiency gains from trade liberalization in economies with a strong presence of SOEs? Using a new dataset of Vietnamese firms we document a set of empirical regularities distinguishing SOEs from private firms. We embed some of these features characterizing SOEs operations in a model of trade with firm heterogeneity and show that they can hinder the selection effects of openness and tame the aggregate productivity gains from trade. We empirically test these predictions analyzing the response of Vietnamese firms to the 2007 WTO accession. Our result show that WTO accession is associated with higher probability of exit, lower markups, and substantial increases in productivity for private firms but not for SOEs. Domestic barriers to entry and preferential access to credit are key drivers of the different response of SOEs to trade liberalization. Our estimates suggest that the overall productivity gains would have been about 66% larger in a counterfactual Vietnamese economy without SOEs. |
| Keywords: | state capitalism, state-owned enterprises, trade liberalization, heterogeneous firms, gains from trade, WTO, Vietnam |
| JEL: | F12 F13 F14 P31 P33 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6618&r=cta |
| By: | Tedi Skiti (Fox School of Business, Temple University) |
| Abstract: | In this article, I present causal effects of institutional entry barriers to new firms on incumbents’ technological innovation. In particular, I investigate the effect of entry barriers to municipal providers on incumbents’ technology deployment in the U.S. broadband industry. I use a spatial regression discontinuity design for private incumbents’ investment behavior and different entry regimes as sharp cutoffs for municipal entry threat. I collect and combine unique firm-level data on cable investment decisions and state-level data on legal entry barriers. I find that in markets with these entry barriers incumbents invest less in new technologies. Specifically, I find that the local entry barriers lead to a 20% lower technology adoption rate by cable incumbents because of reduced entry threat. These results imply that institutions that restrict entry of new firms can lead to significantly decreased technological innovation and lower internet quality across local markets, not only by deterring new firms but also by altering incumbents’ strategic investment in broadband networks. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Entry Barriers, Broadband, Municipal, Spatial Discontinuity |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:1711&r=cta |
| By: | Sergi Jiménez-Martín; Analía Viola |
| Abstract: | En este segundo informe del Observatorio de la Dependencia repasamos las principales magnitudes del sistema (solicitudes, resoluciones, personas con derecho a prestación y beneficiarias con prestaciones) con datos más actualizados hasta junio 2017. Sigue siendo de gran preocupación el denominado “Limbo de la dependencia”, es decir, aquellos individuos que oficialmente se encuentran reconocidos como sujetos de derechos pero que todavía no han recibido ninguna prestación o subsidio. Entre diciembre 2015 y junio 2017 se observa una disminución del 20% en dicha cantidad de individuos (de 384.326 a 319.112) aunque las cifras distan considerablemente de los valores previos a diciembre 2015. Si bien el SAAD ha alcanzado un tamaño razonable, todavía persisten puntos débiles como la infrafinanciación de los servicios y prestaciones así como una visible disparidad entre regiones, reflejo de las diferencias en recursos y preferencias. En definitiva, lo que por ahora tenemos, especialmente después de los recortes (no solo monetarios), introducidos en 2012/2013 se podría calificar como dependencia low cost, de bajo coste y baja calidad. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2017-22&r=cta |
| By: | Mustafa Caglayan (Heriot-Watt University); Alessandro Flamini (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia); Babak Jahanshahi (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia) |
| Abstract: | Since 1980s, organized crime rooted in northern Italy with a new modality in its relation with the society: less violence and more illegal business. We study to what extent, if any, this social adaptation, dubbed silent mafia, to the highest productive area of the country, is interfering with human capital accumulation. We provide empirical evidence that in northern Italy provinces, the larger the presence of organized crime, the less human capital accumulation. This is due on the one hand to the relation between organized crime and entrepreneurs that reduces entrepreneurs' incentives to innovate, and thus leads to a fall in their demand for high-skilled labor. On the other hand to mafia's control of the territory that provides young people with examples of social elevator which reduce their incentives to acquire human capital. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0143&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Dieser Text wurde als Beitrag für einen wirtschaftsethischen Blog geschrieben. Er listet sechs bedeutsame Mängel der nationalen und internationalen Klimapolitik auf. Diese Mängel haben zur Folge, dass die bislang ergriffenen Maßnahmen trotz erheblicher Sonderanstrengungen (und Kosten) einen erschreckend geringen Beitrag zur Erreichung des moralischen Ziels leisten, die globalen Treibhausgasemissionen wirksam zu reduzieren. An diesen kritischen Befund schließen sich vier wirtschaftsethische Thesen an, die deutlich machen, dass es in Deutschland nicht an gutem Willen, wohl aber an moralischer Aufklärung mangelt. |
| Keywords: | Klima,Politik,Moral,Moralismus,Erneuerbare Energien,climate,politics,morality,moralism,renewable energies |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201607&r=cta |
| By: | Bellmann, Lutz (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Caliendo, Marco (University of Potsdam); Tübbicke, Stefan (University of Potsdam) |
| Abstract: | Start-up subsidies for the unemployed have long been an important active labor market policy strategy in Germany. The current subsidy program underwent a major reform in 2011 that changed its key parameters: support was lowered, eligibility criteria were tightened and entitlement was abandoned by granting caseworkers the right to reject applications. Ex-ante predictions on the post-reform effectiveness of the program are ambiguous, and knowledge about the importance of institutional details of such a program is very limited, making a new evaluation necessary. In our descriptive analysis, we compare personal and business characteristics of participants before and after the reform and we find significant differences in terms of gender composition, educational attainment and industry-specific experience. Post-reform participants also perform better in terms of subsequent labor market integration and show signs of higher commitment. These findings give us some indication for interpreting our estimates of causal effects of the post-reform program. We find that for both men and women, employment and income effects of the post-reform program are positive, sizable, and larger than what was estimated for the pre-reform program. All in all, the programs effectiveness seems to have improved through the reform. Potential reasons for this are discussed and include better screening of participants by caseworkers, higher rates of commitment and changes in macroeconomic conditions. |
| Keywords: | start-up subsidies, policy reform, matching, effect heterogeneity |
| JEL: | J68 H43 C14 L26 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11055&r=cta |
| By: | Spitzer, Sonja; Hammer, Bernhard |
| Abstract: | The allocation of paid and unpaid work within households strongly depends on the household members’ individual characteristics. The most important of these characteristics is gender, followed by education and parenthood. Despite the significant increase in women’s labour market participation in the last decades, they still perform 73 percent of housework and 79 percent of childcare in 2008/09. This paper studies the determinants of the persistent division of labour within households with a new approach that combines standard absolute measures of time use with the relative measure of time use shares. This approach allows for a better understanding of the division of labour and the influence of the household member’s characteristics on these allocations. The empirical analysis relies on the Austrian time use survey conducted in 1992 and 2008/09. To appropriately account for the complex structure of time use data, the fractional logit model is applied for predicting shares, and a Poisson-gamma model is introduced for estimating total amounts. Hereby, the complex dynamics of task allocation can be studied in Austria for the first time. The results indicate for the last two decades that there has been an overall increase in the time devoted to market work and childcare, but also that there has been a total decrease in housework. The latter may be explained by an increase in outsourcing work, due to gains in productivity, or because work is simply left undone. The results of the study also show that the higher women are educated, the more balanced paid and unpaid work are within households. On the contrary, parenthood increases female specialisation into unpaid work. Lastly, the results indicate a slight relaxation of gender roles over the last 20 years, however, the segregation of paid and unpaid work still persists. |
| Keywords: | Division of Labour, Unpaid Work, Female Labour Market Participation, Fractional Logit Model, Poisson-gamma Model, Childcare, Housework, Gender Roles, Time Use |
| JEL: | D13 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81791&r=cta |
| By: | Anton Bondarev; Beat Hintermann; Frank C. Krysiak; Ralph Winkler |
| Abstract: | We study adaptation to climate change in a federalist setting. To protect themselves against an increase in flood risk, regional governments choose among adaptation measures that vary with respect to their costs, the level of protection they offer, and the presence and nature of spillovers to neighboring regions. The central government can provide co-funding in response to specific proposals. If it has to deduce the vulnerability of regions by their actions, the resulting adaptation measures are too costly from a social point of view. The results show that adaptation cannot be expected to be efficient without specifically designed incentive schemes. |
| Keywords: | climate change, adaptation, federalism, asymmetric information, vertical interaction, spillovers, non-cooperative games, signaling |
| JEL: | C72 C73 H23 H41 H77 Q52 Q54 Q58 R53 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6382&r=cta |
| By: | Natalia M. Dolgorukova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Ñest Romanz Fist Crestiens Chretien De Troyes and the Birth of the French Novel |
| Keywords: | Chretien de Troyes, “Yvain, or the Knight with the Lion”, “Lancelot, or the Knight of the Cart”, fin’amors, Breton Cycle, Celtic material, troubadours, trouveres, V. Propp, Mabinogion, parody |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:24/ls/2017&r=cta |
| By: | Martina Sartori (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari) |
| Abstract: | Hosting mega-events has long been regarded as an opportunity for economic growth, creating long-lasting benefits and attaining international recognition. Recently, both the scientific community and the public opinion at large have turned much more skeptical about the impact of mega-events. Why is it that some events appear successful and other disasters? Why the perception of impacts has changed over time? To answer these (and other) questions, there is a need to go beyond the simple narratives and “stylized facts”, to undertake some serious scientific investigation, based on verifiable data and testable models. Despite the fact that most recent studies use the same modeling tool, namely some Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, results are sometimes contradictory, thereby hindering the trustiness of the economic analysis for policy guidance. In this paper, we show that results are different because assumptions are different and because the range of effects considered is different, even when the same model is employed. Furthermore, some critical hypotheses are not often clearly stated. We advocate some kind of standardization in the process of model building for the economic assessment of mega-events. Only a transparent and replicable model exercise can serve as a “litmus paper”, to ascertain whether hosting a mega-event is good or bad for an economy. |
| Keywords: | Computable general equilibrium modeling, methodological issues, mega-events economic impact assessment |
| JEL: | C68 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2017:21&r=cta |
| By: | Schilirò, Daniele |
| Abstract: | Mediterraneo ed Europa sono due realtà storicamente legate da rapporti economici, culturali e sociali. Questo contributo esamina, in particolare, gli aspetti economici e sociali delle migrazioni verso l’Europa provenienti dai paesi del Sud ed Est del Mediterraneo e i diversi problemi che questi flussi stanno creando nei paesi dell’Unione europea, cercando di fornire qualche indicazione di policy utile per il superamento della difficile e complessa situazione e per realizzare una crescita sostenibile. |
| Keywords: | Mediterraneo; Unione Europea; migrazioni; demografia; crescita sostenibile |
| JEL: | F5 J0 J1 J11 J15 O11 O15 Q56 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81902&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Peter Seele hat mit Bedauern festgestellt, dass Philosophen kaum noch Chancen haben, auf Lehrstühle für Wirtschafts- und Unternehmensethik berufen zu werden, sofern diese in ökonomischen Fakultäten angesiedelt sind. Ich teile diese empirische Diagnose, aber nicht Seeles normative Bewertung. Dieses Interview skizziert, wie ich die Zukunft der Wirtschaftsethik in Deutschland sehe und wie das ordonomische Forschungsprogramm zur Gestaltung dieser Zukunft beizutragen versucht. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201709&r=cta |
| By: | Koeniger, Winfried; Prat, Julien |
| Abstract: | We characterize optimal redistribution in a dynastic economy with observable human capital and hidden ability. We compute the optimal allocation and show how it can be implemented with student loans or means-tested grants. The numerical results reveal that human capital investment should decline in parental income because parents with high income bequeath more and this lowers the labor supply of their children through a wealth effect. |
| JEL: | E24 H21 I22 J24 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168073&r=cta |
| By: | Itai Areili; Yakov Babichenko; Rann Smorodinsky |
| Abstract: | Bayesian experts with a common prior who are exposed to different evidence often make contradictory probabilistic forecasts. An aggregator who receives the forecasts must aggregate them in the best way possible. This may prove to be a challenge whenever the aggregator is not familiar with the prior or the model and evidence available to the experts. We propose a model where experts provide forecasts over a binary state space. We adapt the notion of regret as a means of evaluating schemes that aggregate their forecasts into a single forecast. Our results show that arbitrary correlation between the experts entails high regret, whereas if there are two experts who are Blackwell-ordered (i.e., one of the experts is more informed) or who have conditionally independent evidence, then the regret is surprisingly low. For these latter cases we construct (nearly) optimal aggregation schemes. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.02838&r=cta |
| By: | Demary, Markus |
| Abstract: | Für den IW Financial Expert Survey werden quartalsweise die Volkswirte von Banken und Versicherungen zu ihrer Einschätzung für die kommenden drei und sechs Monate befragt. Die Auswertung der Prognosen für das 4. Quartal 2017 zeigt, dass die Experten für die kommenden sechs Monate mehrheitlich mit steigenden kurzfristigen und langfris-tigen Zinsen rechnen. Im Durchschnitt über alle Prognostiker, ist davon auszugehen, dass der Kurzfristzins und der Langfristzins in den kommenden sechs Monaten um 0,02 Prozentpunkte und 0,21 Prozentpunkte steigen werden. Bei der Entwicklung des DAX und des Stoxx 50 herrscht allerdings Uneinigkeit zwischen Anstieg und Fall, so dass die durchschnittliche Prognose über alle befragten Experten eine Seitwärts-bewegung anzeigt. Für den Stoxx 50 deutet die durchschnittliche Prognose auf einen Anstieg von 1,5 Prozent hin, während sie für den DAX einen Rückgang von 0,5 Pro-zent anzeigt. Auf stärkere Rückgänge weisen die Konsensprognosen beim Außenwert des Euro und beim Ölpreis hin. Für den Euro deutet die Durchschnittsprognose auf eine Abwertung gegenüber dem US-Dollar um 2,5 Prozent hin und für den Öl-preis deutet sie auf ein Absinken um 6,9 Prozent hin. Bei der Auswertung der Prognosegüte aller 3- und 6-Monatsprognosen der befragten Experten für die letzten 12 Quartale konnten die Experten der DZ Bank ihren ersten Platz als bester Richtungsprognostiker verteidigen. Den zweiten und dritten Platz belegten die Prognostiker der UniCredit und der Hamburger Sparkasse. Bei den besten Punktprognostikern konnte die National-Bank ihren ersten Platz verteidigen gefolgt von der Commerzbank und der Nord/LB. |
| JEL: | G12 G17 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:312017&r=cta |
| By: | Zhou, Haiwen |
| Abstract: | In this general equilibrium framework, the transportation sector is modeled as a distinct sector with increasing returns. A more advanced technology has a higher fixed cost but a lower marginal cost of production. Even with both manufacturing firms and transportation firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose technologies optimally, the model is tractable and results are derived analytically. Technology adoptions in the manufacturing sector and in the transportation sector are reinforcing and multiple equilibria may exist. Firms choose more advanced technologies and the prices decrease when the size of the population is larger. |
| Keywords: | Transportation costs, international trade, the choice of technology, increasing returns, strategic complementarity |
| JEL: | F10 O14 R40 |
| Date: | 2017–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81943&r=cta |
| By: | Gornig, Martin; Schiersch, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This paper tests whether intangible capital is a substitute or, to some degree, a complement to standard inputs in the production process. The analysis is conducted for public sectors in which governmental institutions are directly responsible both for efficiently producing public goods and for investing in new production factors. The results reveal that intangible capital is a relevant input factor in the production of public goods and only weakly substitutable with other inputs. |
| JEL: | E22 E23 D20 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168266&r=cta |
| By: | Josie I Chen (National Taipei University); Kenju Kamei (Durham Business School) |
| Abstract: | Past experimental research has shown that when rating systems are available, buyers are more generous in accepting unfair offers in ultimatum bargaining. But it at the same time suggests that sellers behave more fairly to avoid receiving negative feedbacks. This paper experimentally studies which effect is stronger with a rating system: buyers’ inflated inequity acceptance or sellers’ disapproval aversion. We explore this question by varying the information condition on buyers’ side. Our experiment shows that in the setup where the size of pie is common knowledge to both buyers and sellers, when a rating system is present, the sellers exhibit disapproval aversion but the buyers do not raise inequity acceptance. But on the other hand, when only sellers are aware of the size of the pie, sellers behave aggressively to exploit buyers and their behaviors do not change by the presence of a rating system, but instead, buyers raise inequity acceptance significantly with the rating system present. We discuss that these results can be explained by a theoretical model with sellers’ social disapproval aversion and buyers’ disappointment aversion, along with the players’ inequality aversion.Classification-JEL: C91, D03, D82, M21 |
| Keywords: | experiment, ultimatum game, emotion, rating, disapproval aversion |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dur:durham:2017_10&r=cta |
| By: | Eberechukwu Uneze; Adedeji Adeniran; Uzor Ezechukwu |
| Abstract: | Global efforts over the next 15 years will focus on successfully implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agreed to under the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Most developing countries will face enormous challenges because they lack the necessary means of implementation (MoI). This study examines the adequacy of various MoI for the SDGs in Nigeria, focusing on five key areas: the ease of mainstreaming international goals into national plans; the efficacy of management, coordination, and monitoring and evaluation mechanisms; the ability of financing options to meet financing needs; the robustness of stakeholders and partnerships; and the level of statistical capacity. The study finds that the existing MoI in Nigeria are inadequate, and will require significant improvement to implement the SDGs successfully. However, there is potential to mitigate the challenges with proactive government and complementary roles by key stakeholders, such as development partners, the private sector and civil society. |
| Keywords: | Nigeria, national-level challenges, SDGs, means of implementation (MoI) |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svo:opaper:30&r=cta |
| By: | Eryk Kopczyński (Institute of Informatics, University of Warsaw); Dorota Celińska (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | We present an efficient algorithm for computing distances in hyperbolic grids. We apply this algorithm to work efficiently with a discrete variant of the hyperbolic random graph model. This model is gaining popularity in the analysis of scale-free networks, which are ubiquitous in many fields, from social network analysis to biology. We present experimental results conducted on real world networks. |
| Keywords: | computational geometry, hyperbolic geometry, scale-free networks, hyperbolic random graphs |
| JEL: | C02 C65 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2017-20&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | In der Schule wird das Thema 'Wirtschaft' in vielen Fächern behandelt, aber nur selten von Lehrern, die über eine Expertise in ökonomischer Theorie verfügen. Biologie ohne Charles Darwin? Das wäre ein Skandal. Wirtschaft ohne Adam Smith? Das ist ein Skandal - täglich gelebt an deutschen Schulen! |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201710&r=cta |
| By: | Damien Rousselière |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new estimation model to capture the complex effect of age on organization survival. Testing various theoretical propositions on organizational mortality, we study the survival of French agricultural cooperatives in comparison with other firms with which they compete. The relationship between age and mortality in organizations is analyzed using a Bayesian Generalized discrete-time semi-parametric hazard model with correlated random effects, incorporating unobserved heterogeneity and isolating the various effects of time. This analysis emphasizes the specificity of the temporal dynamics of cooperatives in relation to their special role in agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian estimation, Bayesian model selection, cooperatives, generalized additive model, survival analysis |
| JEL: | C11 C41 Q13 L25 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rae:wpaper:201708&r=cta |
| By: | Remy Oddou |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses how welfarism affects the segregative properties of endogenous jurisdiction formation, in a model where local jurisdictions produce a local public good and distribute an allowance to their households, both financed by a proportional tax based on the households' wealth. A jurisdiction is composed of all the households that live in the same place. Local wealth tax rates and the level of the allowance are determined to maximize a social welfare function. Households can "vote with their feet", which means that they can choose to move to the jurisdiction that offers the package "tax rate - amount of public good - allowance" that provides the highest utility level. The main result of this article is the proof that the maximin criterium is more segregative than the utilitarian one. |
| Keywords: | Jurisdiction, Segregation, Welfare |
| JEL: | C78 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2017-43&r=cta |
| By: | Hentze, Tobias |
| JEL: | H54 H61 H62 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:292017&r=cta |
| By: | Forcillo, Donato |
| Abstract: | We show the most relevant literature regarding the corporate governance system of Codetermination, which includes the presence of workers' representatives on the board. The aim is to thoroughly analyse the topic and to fill a gap present in the current literature, the absence of an updated and extensive literature review, which analyses both the theoretical and empirical perspective. This particular analysis allows one to see a clear picture of this sensitive issue of governance, mainly present in the German world, but expanding to other countries especially in northern Europe, also as a result of the recent European Union directives. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Governance, Codetermination, Labor Representation, Workers, Human Capital |
| JEL: | G34 J50 L22 M14 |
| Date: | 2017–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81936&r=cta |
| By: | Pierre Courtois (INRA - SAE2, LAMETA); Charles Figuières (Aix-Marseille Univ. (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS, EHESS and Centrale Marseille); Chloe Mulier (Innovation, Montpellier); Joakim Weill (Dpt of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2159 Social Sciences and Humanities, University of California, Davis) |
| Abstract: | Biological invasions entail massive biodiversity losses and tremendous economic impacts that justify significant management efforts. Because the funds available to control biological invasions are limited, there is a need to identify priority species. This paper first review current invasive species prioritization methods and explicitly highlights their pitfalls. We then construct a cost-benefit optimization framework that incorporates species utility, ecological value, distinctiveness, and species interactions. This framework offers the theoretical foundations of a simple and operational method for the management of invasive species under a limited budget constraint. It takes the form of an algorithm for the prioritization of multiple biological invasions. |
| Keywords: | prioritization, biological invasions, cost/benefit, optimization, diversity |
| JEL: | Q28 Q57 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1733&r=cta |
| By: | Worapree Maneesoonthorn; Gael M. Martin; Catherine S. Forbes |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an extensive evaluation of high frequency jump tests and measures, in the context of dynamic models for asset price jumps. Specifically, we investigate: i) the power of alternative tests to detect individual price jumps, including in the presence of volatility jumps; ii) the frequency with which sequences of dynamic jumps are identified; iii) the accuracy with which the magnitude and sign of sequential jumps are estimated; and iv) the robustness of inference about dynamic jumps to test and measure design. Substantial differences are discerned in the performance of alternative methods in certain dimensions, with inference being sensitive to these differences in some cases. Accounting for measurement error when using measures constructed from high frequency data to conduct inference on dynamic jump models would appear to be advisable. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic price jumps, price jump tests, nonparametric jump measures, Hawkes process, discretized jump diffusion model, Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo. |
| JEL: | C12 C22 C58 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2017-14&r=cta |
| By: | Dudley, William (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | Remarks at the Council for Economic Education’s 56th Annual Financial Literacy & Economic Education Conference, New York City. |
| Keywords: | structural change; inflation shortfall; balance sheet normalization; income equality; income mobility; Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute; social mobility; legacy admission policies; economic mobility; intergenerational mobility |
| Date: | 2017–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:256&r=cta |
| By: | Grammig, Joachim; Küchlin, Eva-Maria |
| Abstract: | The long-run consumption risk model provides a theoretically appealing explanation for prominent asset pricing puzzles, but its intricate structure presents a challenge for econometric analysis. This paper proposes a two-step indirect inference approach that disentangles the estimation of the model's macroeconomic dynamics and the investor's preference parameters. A Monte Carlo study explores the feasibility and efficiency of the estimation strategy. We apply the method to recent U.S. data and provide a critical re-assessment of the long-run risk model's ability to reconcile the real economy and financial markets. This two-step indirect inference approach is potentially useful for the econometric analysis of other prominent consumption-based asset pricing models that are equally difficult to estimate. |
| Keywords: | Indirect Inference Estimation,Asset Pricing,Long-Run Risk |
| JEL: | C58 G10 G12 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:572&r=cta |
| By: | Marko Primorac; Silvija Vlah Jeric |
| Abstract: | Although it may at first seem unimportant, the structure of excise taxes on cigarettes greatly affects the price of cigarettes, the structure of the consumption, but also the amount of the tax revenue. EU Directive 2011/64/EU prescribes the combination of the specific and the proportional (ad valorem) excise tax on cigarettes. However, Member States independently determine the shares of one or another component in the overall excise tax structure, whereby the EU directive only prescribes the upper and the lower limit. The purpose of this article is to challenge several myths related to the cigarette taxation in the EU. The first one is that an increase of the specific component of the cigarette excise negatively affects the consumption of cigarettes, whereas this does not hold for the proportional component. The second assumption empirically tested in the paper is that an increase of the specific excise increases the government revenue from cigarette excises, whereby this can not be confirmed for the proportional component. Lastly, since both previous hypotheses have been confirmed, we tried to delve into reasons why certain countries – despite obvious advantages of the specific in relation to proportional excise – still predominantly rely on the latter. To this end, we tested the assumption that countries with domestic production of tobacco increasingly use proportional excises to increase the price gap between domestic (usually cheaper) and more expensive (imported/international) brands. The results of the empirical analysis were consistent with this hypothesis and confirmed that domestic tobacco production is a significant determinant of the structure of cigarette excises. |
| Keywords: | cigarette excises, excise taxes, tax revenue, tax harmonization, EU |
| JEL: | H20 H30 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6386&r=cta |
| By: | Herr, Annika; Normann, Hans-Theo |
| Abstract: | Experiments show that prioritizing registered donors on the waiting list impressively increases the willingness to register as an organ donor. We are the first to provide a comparative-statics analysis of the priority treatment by varying the number of bonus periods a registered person can skip on the waiting list. Our results indicate that a higher number of bonus periods significantly improves registration rates whereas a small bonus of only one period is of minor significance. |
| JEL: | I10 I18 C90 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168072&r=cta |
| By: | Bryan Coyne, Sean Lyons, Daire McCoy |
| Abstract: | This research examines the impact of a home energy efficiency upgrade programme on social housing tenants. Employing a quasi-experimental approach we examine a range of objectively measured and self- reported outcomes, including metered gas consumption, for a control and upgrade group, before and after the upgrade. We draw our sample from a large home energy efficiency programme in Ireland, The SEAI Better Energy Communities Scheme, which provides funding for whole communities to upgrade the efficiency of their dwellings. Dwellings are selected for upgrade based on need, allowing us to control for observable dwelling characteristics correlated with selection into the trial. The upgrades undertaken are extensive relative to the average home energy improvement, with many dwellings receiving a number of measures. Households report improvements across a range of outcomes associated with heating-related deprivation and comfort in the home. Panel regression models examine the elasticity of gas demand with respect to the thermal efficiency of the dwellings. Overall, we find that use of natural gas falls much less than 1:1 for each increment to thermal efficiency of the home. For the average household in this study, about half of a marginal increase in thermal efficiency is reflected in reduced gas demand. This result highlights issues with standard engineering models which are commonly used to assess the energy efficiency of dwellings and points to a behavioural response from households, potentially taking back some of the savings as increased internal temperatures. |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp279&r=cta |
| By: | Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard |
| Abstract: | We consider robust inference for an autoregressive parameter in a stationary autoregressive model with GARCH innovations when estimation is based on least squares estimation. As the innovations exhibit GARCH, they are by construction heavy-tailed with some tail index $\kappa$. The rate of consistency as well as the limiting distribution of the least squares estimator depend on $\kappa$. In the spirit of Ibragimov and Müller (“t-statistic based correlation and heterogeneity robust inference”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2010, vol. 28, pp. 453-468), we consider testing a hypothesis about a parameter based on a Student’s t-statistic for a fixed number of subsamples of the original sample. The merit of this approach is that no knowledge about the value of $\kappa$ nor about the rate of consistency and the limiting distribution of the least squares estimator is required. We verify that the one-sided t-test is asymptotically a level $\alpha$ test whenever $\alpha \le $ 5% uniformly over $\kappa \ge 2$, which includes cases where the innovations have infinite variance. A simulation experiment suggests that the finite-sample properties of the test are quite good. |
| Keywords: | t-test, AR-GARCH, regular variation, least squares estimation |
| JEL: | C12 C22 C46 C51 |
| Date: | 2017–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81979&r=cta |
| By: | Lang, Julia; Dauth, Christine |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the effectiveness of subsidized training in elderly care professions for the unemployed in Germany. We find that shorter further training increases employment but hardly affects wages. Retraining, which entails a vocational degree as geriatric nurse, causes strong lock-in effects, but afterwards substantial positive wage and employment effects that exceed those of further training. Yet, large shares of the estimated employment effects are attributable to part-time employment. |
| JEL: | I11 J24 J68 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168130&r=cta |
| By: | Hubert BONIN |
| Abstract: | Beyond the facts themselves, which resulted in a grave crisis of the second French bank in 1913 and who told the implementation of the solidarity of place, it is necessary to explain how the strategic and managerial conduct of what had become a banking firm suffered from excessive risk-takings, and from maybe random methods of management. In any case, the capacities of anticipations seem to have been deficient. Thus this essay mobilizes analyses fed with the reflections of economists of management and applies them to business history and to banking history, to try to determine if current theoretical approaches could, without too much anachronism, allow a finer understanding of this event. |
| Keywords: | Bank ; management history ; risks management ; business history ; managerial culture |
| JEL: | D22 D81 G L N N |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2017-13&r=cta |
| By: | Schiff, Maurice (World Bank); Wang, Yanling (Carleton University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of education, governance and North-South trade- and distance-related technology diffusion on TFP in the South, focusing on South America (SA), Mexico, Latin America (LA) and East Asia for the 32-year period preceding the Great Recession (1976–2007) in a new model that integrates models of trade-related and distance-related international technology diffusion. Our model's explanatory power is 38% (62%) greater than that of the main trade-related (distance-related) model. Findings are: i) TFP increases with education, trade, governance (ETG) and imports' R&D content, and declines with distance to the North; ii) an increase in LA's ETG to East Asia's level raises LA's TFP by some 100% and accounts for about 75% of its TFP gap with East Asia; iii) raising LA's education to East Asia's level has a larger impact on TFP and on the TFP gap than raising governance or openness; iv) the TFP impact on South America relative to Mexico due to its greater distance to US-Canada (Europe) (Japan) is -18.9 (-2.13) (-9.78)%, with an overall impact of -12.4%. |
| Keywords: | education, governance, trade, distance, technology diffusion, productivity impact, Latin America, East Asia |
| JEL: | F13 I25 O19 O47 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11049&r=cta |
| By: | Yuri A. Markov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Igor S. Utochkin (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Visual working memory (VWM) is prone to interference from individual items competing for its limited capacity. At least two sources of such interference can be described: poor between-item distinctiveness (an inability to discriminate between items sharing common features) and imperfect binding (a problem with determining which of the remembered features belonged to which object). Here we investigate the links between distinctiveness and binding in VWM. In Experiment 1, we tested how object distinctiveness affects object recognition memory and memory for object-location conjunctions. In Experiment 2, we compared object-location binding under high and low distinctiveness with memory for locations when binding is not required. Object recognition decreased with low object distinctiveness, while the precision and the number of stored locations did not depend on either distinctiveness or the need for binding. However, the proportion of object-location swaps increased as object distinctiveness decreased, which might be caused by forgetting of objects. In general, our data support the idea of relatively independent object and location representations in VWM, and the independence of memory distinction and binding |
| Keywords: | visual working memory, distinctiveness, object-location binding, swap errors, binding problem |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:79psy2017&r=cta |
| By: | Alicia Garcia-Herrero (Adjunct Professor, Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at NATIXIS); Jianwei Xu (Associate Professor, Beijing Normal University) |
| Abstract: | Alicia Garcia-Herrero, HKUST IEMS Faculty Associate and Chief Economist for the Asia Pacific at NATIXIS, asks how Xi Jinping’s One Belt One Road initiative will affect EU trade. The colossal infrastructure project is set to upturn trade relationships across Eurasia, yet the examination of its effects is still “embryonic”. Who will be the major winners and losers in trade? How would FTAs between China and OBOR nations affect the EU? In this latest IEMS Thought Leadership Brief, Prof García-Herrero makes the case for why it is time for the EU to actively participate in the Belt and Road Initiative. The study was conducted at Bruegel Research Institute with colleague Jianwei Xu. |
| Keywords: | Belt & Road, china, China-EU Trade, infrastructure, international economic system, International Trade, One Belt One Road |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:briefs:201614&r=cta |
| By: | Hans (J.L.W.) van Kippersluis (Erasmus School of Economics, The Netherlands; Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands); Niels (C.A.) Rietveld (Erasmus School of Economics, The Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | We synthesize two recent advances in the literature on instrumental variables (IVs) estimation that test and relax the exclusion restriction. Our approach first estimates the direct effect of the IV on the outcome in a subsample for which the IV does not affect the treatment variable. Subsequently, this estimate for the direct effect is used as input for the plausibly exogenous method developed by Conley, Hansen and Rossi (2012). This two-step procedure provides a novel and informed sensitivity analysis for IV estimation. We illustrate the practical use by estimating the causal effect of (i) attending Catholic high school on schooling outcomes, and (ii) the number of children on female labour supply. |
| Keywords: | Instrumental variables; plausibly exogenous; exclusion restriction |
| JEL: | C18 C26 J20 |
| Date: | 2017–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20170096&r=cta |
| By: | von Grebmer, Klaus; Bernstein, Jill; Hossain, Naomi; Brown, Tracy; Prasai, Nilam; Yohannes, Yisehac; Patterson, Fraser; Sonntag, Andrea; Zimmerman, Sophia-Maria; Towey, Olive; Foley, Connell |
| Abstract: | Le rapport de l’Indice de la faim dans le monde 2017 (GHI) – douzième édition - propose une mesure multidimensionnelle de la faim au niveau national, régional et international. Le GHI 2017 montre les progrès effectués au niveau mondial pour réduire la faim depuis 2000, mais ces progrès ont été inégaux, avec des niveaux de faim encore grave ou alarmant dans 51 pays et extrêmement alarmant dans un pays. Cette année, le rapport met en lumière les inégalités sous-jacentes de la faim, dont les inégalités géographiques, de revenu et de genre, ainsi que les inégalités liées au pouvoir social, politique et économique où elles trouvent leurs racines. |
| Keywords: | Americas; South America; Europe; Asia; Africa South of Sahara; Africa; hunger; nutrition; health; malnutrition; gender; women; income; economic development; food policies; food security; nutrition security; inequality |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:synops:9780896292772&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Diese Replik antwortet auf vierzehn Kommentare zu meinem 2017 als Hauptbeitrag für die Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Unternehmensethik (zfwu) verfassten Artikel über das ordonomische Forschungsprogramm. Behandelt werden (a) das Beispiel der Flüchtlings(politik)diskussion, (b) die Erläuterung der ordonomischen Theorie-Elemente, (c) die ordonomische Methode sowie (d) das Verhältnis zwischen Institutionenethik und Individualethik. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201707&r=cta |
| By: | Daniel Björkegren (Brown University, Department of Economics, 64 Waterman Street, Providence RI 02912, USA) |
| Abstract: | Many modern technologies have network effects, and as a result lead to industries with natural monopolies. How should societies discipline these industries? This is a preliminary paper that analyzes the scope for competition to affect welfare and investment in the Rwandan mobile phone network during a 4.5 year period of dramatic growth. I use transaction data from nearly the entire network of Rwandan mobile phone subscribers at the time. I use the method and estimates of Bjorkegren (2017), which identify network effects based on usage after adoption. The Rwandan government eventually allowed competition; I evaluate what may have happened had competition been introduced at an earlier stage of the network’s growth. Had the monopolist simply charged the eventual competitive prices, welfare would have risen substantially. However, only a fraction of the revenue from building the rural tower network came from calls within rural areas; as a result, had the rest of the network been split among providers, there may have been lowered incentives to invest. A subsequent version of this paper will simulate the effects of competition under different policy regimes. |
| Keywords: | network goods, infrastructure, information technology |
| JEL: | O33 L96 O18 L51 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:1710&r=cta |
| By: | Potter, Simon M. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | Remarks at SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum, New York City. |
| Keywords: | FRBNY; Federal Reserve bank of New York; portfolio size; balance sheet; confidence; taper tantrum; normalization; FOMC; gradualism; predictability; the Desk; Treasury market; stock view; stock view; Soros; recruitment effect |
| Date: | 2017–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:257&r=cta |
| By: | Brettschneider, Jörg |
| Abstract: | Eine Vielzahl von Händlern aus Drittländern (insbesondere aus der V. R. China) bieten Waren auf E-Commerce-Plattformen wie Amazon und eBay zum Verkauf an. Es kommt in diesem Zusammenhang zu Abgabenhinterziehungen großen Ausmaßes mit der Nebenfolge von Wettbewerbsverzerrungen. Es wird die Frage behandelt, welche Schritte die Bundesrepublik Deutschland unter Beachtung des EU-Rahmens dagegen unternehmen kann. Es sind einerseits rechtliche Voraussetzungen zur Verbesserung der Kontrolle zu schaffen und andererseits ist die Compliance zu erleichtern. |
| Keywords: | Amazon,eBay,China,Abgabenhinterziehungen,Mehrwertsteuerhinterziehungen,E-Commerce,Internetplattformen,Steuerbetrug,Steuerhinterziehung,Compliance,VAT-fraud,VAT,Umsatzsteuer,Mehrwertsteuer,Overseas E-Commerce,Overseas Warehouse,FBA,Fulfillment,Zoll,B2C |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:170491&r=cta |
| By: | Abeliansky, Ana Lucia; Prettner, Klaus |
| Abstract: | A standard theoretical framework of accumulation of traditional physical capital and automation capital predicts that countries with a lower population growth rate are the ones innovating/adopting new automation technologies faster. We test the model prediction using panel data for 60 countries from 1993 to 2013. Empirical estimates suggest that a 1% increase in population growth is associated with an approximate 2% reduction in the growth rate of robot density. |
| JEL: | J11 O14 O33 O40 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168215&r=cta |
| By: | Joan Costa Font; Valentina Zigante |
| Abstract: | The public funding of long-term care (LTC) programs to support the frail elderly is still underdeveloped compared to other areas of social protection for old age. In Europe, any moves to broaden entitlements to LTC are impeded by increasing demand for care coinciding with constrained public finances. We examine a set of conditions that facilitate modifications to the financial entitlement to LTC and elaborate the concept of ‘implicit partnerships’: an implicit (or ‘silent’) agreement, encompassing the financial co-participation of public funders and the time and/or financial resources of users and their families. We argue that the successful building of ‘implicit partnerships’ opens the door to potential reform of financial entitlements, either through ‘user partnerships’ relying on users’ co-payments, or ‘caregiver partnerships’ relying on informal care provision. We examine entitlements over time in seven European countries; the EU-5, the Netherlands and Sweden. Furthermore, we show that public attitudes towards financing and provision of LTC support the country specific financial entitlements and the type of implicit partnership we identify. |
| Keywords: | implicit partnership, partial insurance, cost sharing, long-term care, financial sustainability, family, Europe. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eiq:eileqs:125&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Dieser Aufsatz skizziert in sieben Leitsätzen den ordonomischen Beitrag zum Narrativ der Moderne. Die Grundidee wird entwickelt in der Auseinandersetzung mit Steven Pinker. Als wichtigstes Faktum der letzten 10.000 Jahre wird nicht die säkulare Abnahme der Gewalt bestimmt, sondern die in den letzten 200 Jahren forciert einsetzende Anhebung des globalen Lebensstandards: Die moderne Gesellschaft entfaltet sich als Wachstumsgesellschaft. Ferner wird gezeigt, dass und warum es grundlegend verfehlt ist, den Kapitalismus als System zur Ausbeutung der Arbeiter oder als System zur Ausbeutung der Natur moralisch zu (dis-)qualifizieren: Die globale Marktwirtschaft eröffnet die Option, die Nächstenliebe zur Fernstenliebe zu erweitern, weil sie Solidarität unter Fremden ermöglicht. Entwickelt wird diese Argumentation durch den Nachweis, dass Wissenschaft und Wirtschaft die strukturelle Gemeinsamkeit aufweisen, Konkurrenz in den Dienst gesellschaftlicher Kooperation treten zu lassen. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201708&r=cta |
| By: | Neil McCulloch |
| Abstract: | Energy subsidy reform is critical to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and tackling climate change. This paper sets out the evidence on the scale of subsidies and their impact. It then reviews the actions of donors in encouraging and supporting energy subsidy reforms. I find that, outside of analytical work in support of international diplomatic efforts, the donor community has devoted remarkably few resources to supporting developing countries to remove energy subsidies. This is despite the fact that energy subsidies exceed all bilateral aid in 59 per cent of recipient countries. The reason for this low level of effort is the political sensitivity of such reforms. The paper then draws on the recent literature on ‘thinking and working politically’ to provide recommendations about how donors might more effectively encourage politically sensitive energy subsidy reform. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2017-174&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Dieser Text ist die schriftliche Grundlage für die von Ingo Pies am 14. April 2016 in Berlin gehaltene Laudatio zur Verleihung des Max-Weber-Preises für Wirtschaftsethik in der Kategorie Bachelor-Studienpreis an Janaina Drummond Nauck. Ihre Arbeit trägt den Titel: „Das Gewinnparadox in der Unternehmensethik: Eine spieltheoretische Analyse“. |
| Keywords: | hedonistisches Paradoxon,Gewinnparadoxon,unternehmerische Verantwortung,hedonistic paradox,profit paradox,Corporate Social Responsibility |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201606&r=cta |
| By: | Lechler, Marie |
| Abstract: | We identify indirect and direct colonial rule as causal factors in shaping support for democracy by exploiting a within-country natural experiment in Namibia. Throughout the colonial era, northern Namibia was indirectly ruled through a system of appointed indigenous traditional elites whereas colonial authorities directly ruled southern Namibia. Using this spatial discontinuity, we find that individuals in indirectly ruled areas are less likely to support democracy and turnout at elections. |
| JEL: | F54 N27 N47 P16 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168216&r=cta |
| By: | Aurelio Bruzzo |
| Abstract: | Nel presente Quaderno s’illustra la situazione socio demografica presente in provincia di Reggio Emilia, con particolare riferimento all’andamento naturale e sociale della popolazione registrato a partire dall’inizio del secolo in corso. Inoltre, si esamina l’attuale consistenza dell’immigrazione proveniente dall’estero, al fine di stabilire se questa componente demografica abbia positivamente contribuito al processo di sviluppo in ambito locale, dal momento che in questa area il fenomeno migratorio si è presentato già da molti anni e in misura alquanto consistente rispetto ad altre aree geografiche dell’Emilia-Romagna. |
| Keywords: | Demographic Trends; Immigrants; Local Economic Development |
| JEL: | J11 J15 R11 |
| Date: | 2017–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udf:wpaper:2017076&r=cta |
| By: | van Uden, A.; Voeten, Jaap (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:cc4ee9a8-998b-4560-b6d0-29e718106012&r=cta |
| By: | Feld, Lars P.; Fuest, Clemens; Haucap, Justus; Schweitzer, Heike; Wieland, Volker; Wigger, Berthold U. |
| Abstract: | Die anhaltend gute konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland scheint die Politik in trügerischer Sicherheit zu wiegen. In der vergangenen Legislaturperiode konnte man den Eindruck gewinnen, dass die Verteilung des Erwirtschafteten stärker im Vordergrund steht als die Steigerung des Wohlstands. Und auch im eher schläfrig wirkenden Bundestagswahlkampf 2017 dominierten überwiegend Verteilungsdebatten die Agenda. Dabei sind die Herausforderungen für die nächste Bundesregierung enorm: Digitalisierung, demografischer Wandel, Flüchtlingskrise und Eurosklerose sind nur einige Aufgaben, die es in der kommenden Legislaturperiode zu bewältigen gilt. Gleichwohl sollten die Herausforderungen mehr als Chance denn als Bedrohung wahrgenommen und wesentliche ordnungspolitische Weichenstellungen vorgenommen werden. Der Kronberger Kreis, wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Stiftung Marktwirtschaft, zeigt in dieser Studie, wie mithilfe zukunftsweisender Konzepte eine konsequente Wachstumspolitik aussehen könnte. Hierzu gehören eine digitale Reformagenda und die Schaffung eines innovationsoffenen Ordnungsrahmens, effiziente Entlastungen in der Einkommens- und Unternehmensbesteuerung, eine automatische Anpassung des Renteneintrittsalters, die Gewährung einer binnenmarktfreundlichen Übergangsfrist während der Brexit-Verhandlungen sowie eine Wiederbelebung des europäischen Integrationsprozesses basierend auf den Grundprinzipien von Subsidiarität und Marktdisziplin. Deutschland sollte aus seinem Dornröschenschlaf erwachen und mutig voranschreiten. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:smwkro:64&r=cta |
| By: | Frank Emmert-Streib; Aliyu Musa; Kestutis Baltakys; Juho Kanniainen; Shailesh Tripathi; Olli Yli-Harja; Herbert Jodlbauer; Matthias Dehmer |
| Abstract: | In recent years, methods from network science are gaining rapidly interest in economics and finance. A reason for this is that in a globalized world the interconnectedness among economic and financial entities are crucial to understand and networks provide a natural framework for representing and studying such systems. In this paper, we are surveying the use of networks and network-based methods for studying economy related questions. We start with a brief overview of graph theory and basic definitions. Then we discuss descriptive network measures and network complexity measures for quantifying structural properties of economic networks. Finally, we discuss different network and tree structures as relevant for applications. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.04455&r=cta |
| By: | Omar Adam Ayaita; Filiz Gülal; Philip Yang |
| Abstract: | Several studies have analyzed different motives to work in the public versus private sector. Some studies focus on prosocial motivation, others focus on need for security (risk aversion). However, the study of prosocial motivation in the context of public sector employment has largely focused on altruism and neglected other forms of prosocial motivation, in particular civic virtue, the motive to contribute to the society. In addition, it is unclear whether the positive relationship between prosocial motivation and public sector employment is due to selection at the career start or socialization during the career. Our study extends the understanding of the motivational basis of public sector employment by considering civic virtue in addition to altruism and risk aversion and by investigating selection and socialization. Using a largely representative, longitudinal data set of employees in Germany including 63,101 observations of 13,673 different individuals, we find that civic virtue relates positively to public sector employment beyond altruism and risk aversion. We find evidence on selection and no evidence on socialization as an explanation for this result. Our study offers important insight into the motivational basis of public versus private sector employment and has implications for employers’ attempts to attract and retain suitable employees. |
| Keywords: | Civic virtue; engagement; prosocial motivation; public sector employment; selection; socialization |
| JEL: | H0 H1 J45 M5 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp930&r=cta |
| By: | Lankisch, Clemens; Prettner, Klaus; Prskawetz, Alexia |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of automation on the wages of high-skilled and low- skilled workers and thereby on the evolution of wage inequality. Our model explains the simultaneous presence of i) increasing per capita GDP, ii) de-clining real wages of low-skilled workers, and iii) an increasing skill-premium. These developments are consistent with the experience in the United States over the past decades and have the potential to contribute to the explanation of the rise in overall incomeinequality that we have observed since the 1980s. |
| Keywords: | automation,declining real wages of low-skilled workers,income inequality,long-run economic growth,skill premium |
| JEL: | O11 O41 I24 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohdps:292017&r=cta |
| By: | Schiff, Maurice; Wang, Yanling |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of education, governance and North-South trade- and distance-related technology diffusion on TFP in the South, focusing on South America (SA), Mexico, Latin America (LA) and East Asia for the 32-year period preceding the Great Recession (1976-2007) in a new model that integrates models of trade-related and distance-related international technology diffusion. Our model’s explanatory power is 38% (62%) greater than that of the main trade-related (distance-related) model. Findings are: i) TFP increases with education, trade, governance (ETG) and imports’ R&D content, and declines with distance to the North; ii) an increase in LA’s ETG to East Asia’s level raises LA’s TFP by some 100% and accounts for about 75% of its TFP gap with East Asia; iii) raising LA’s education to East Asia’s level has a larger impact on TFP and on the TFP gap than raising governance or openness; iv) the TFP impact on South America relative to Mexico due to its greater distance to US-Canada (Europe)(Japan) is −18.9 (−2.13) (−9.78)%, with an overall impact of −12.4%. |
| Keywords: | Education,Governance,Trade,Distance,Technology Diffusion,Productivity Impact,Latin America,East Asia |
| JEL: | F13 I25 O19 O47 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:126&r=cta |
| By: | Gerlagh, Reyer (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Jaimes Bonilla, Richard (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Motavasseli, Ali (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Between 1950 and 2017, world average life expectancy increased from below-50 to above-70, while the fertility rate dropped from 5 to about 2.5. We develop and calibrate an analytic climate-economy model with overlapping generations to study the effect of such demographic change on capital markets and optimal climate policies. Our model replicates findings from the OLG-demography literature, such as a rise in households’ savings, and a declining rate of return to capital. We also find that demographic change raises the social cost of carbon, at 2020, from 28 euro/tCO2 in a model that abstracts from demography, to 94 euro/tCO2 in our calibrated model. |
| Keywords: | climate change; social cost of carbon; environmental policy; demographic trends |
| JEL: | H23 J11 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:7a4ee2a9-e025-4ec0-8bc8-f3bca71e57ab&r=cta |
| By: | Kerndler, Martin |
| Abstract: | High and rigid wages are a threat for employment, especially for older workers. While wage levels of job stayers in many countries are not decreasing in late working life, little is known about the evolution of wage flexibility over the lifecycle. Using the German LIAB data set, this paper investigates the age pattern of wage flexibility with respect to permanent and transitory shocks to firm productivity. Works councils are found to have an important effect on wage flexibility of older workers. |
| JEL: | J14 J31 J41 J51 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168160&r=cta |
| By: | Gilles Saint-Paul; Davide Ticchi; Andrea Vindigni |
| Abstract: | If people understand that some macroeconomic policies are unsustainable, why would they vote for them in the first place? We develop a political economy theory of the endogenous emergence of fiscal crises, based on the idea that the adjustment mechanism to a crisis favors some social groups, that may be induced ex-ante to vote in favor of policies that are more likely to lead to a crisis. People are entitled to a certain level of a publicly provided good, which may be rationed in times of crises. After voting on that level, society votes on the extend to which it will be financed by debt. Under bad enough macro shocks, a crisis arises: taxes are set at their maximum but despite that some agents do not get their entitlement. Some social groups do better in this rationing process than others. We show that public debt - which makes crises more likely - is higher, as is the probability of a crisis, the greater the level of favoritism. If the favored group is important enough to be pivotal when society votes on the entitlement level, favoritism also leads to greater public expenditure. We show that the favored group may strategically favor a weaker state in order to make crises more frequent. Finally, the decisive voter when choosing expenditure may be different from the one when voting on debt. In such a case, constitutional limits on debt may raise the utility of all the poor, relative to the equilibrium outcome absent such limits. |
| Keywords: | political economy, fiscal crises, favoritism, entitlements, public debt, inequality, state capacity |
| JEL: | E62 F34 H12 H60 O11 P16 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6657&r=cta |
| By: | Ivan A. Karpenkî (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The cyclical indicators approach has been used for decades but the last recession has once more rekindled an interest for them throughout the world. Several new techniques and indicators were introduced in recent years but the actual quality of these ‘newcomers‘ was not well established. During the last recession, performance of such ‘veterans’ as indexes by The Conference Board, ECRI, ISM, PhilFed, OECD, etc. has also not been checked in a comprehensive and comparable manner. Another problem with cyclical indicators is that their usage in real time has not yet been fully clarified. Contemporary global economic life is measured in days and hours, but most common economic indicators have inevitable lags of months and sometimes quarters (GDP). Is it possible for a leading indicator (which is monthly in most cases) to be timely? Moreover, the real-time picture of economic dynamics may differ in some sense from the same picture in its historical perspective, because all fluctuations receive their proper weights only in the context of the whole. Therefore, it’s important to understand whether the existing indicators are really capable of providing important information for decision-makers. In other words, could they be useful in real-time? What does the experience of the last recession tell us in this regard? This paper answers these questions for the USA as well as for Russia. |
| Keywords: | philosophy of science, physical theory, physical law, eternal inflation, dark energy, anthropic principle |
| JEL: | Z19 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:154/hum/2017&r=cta |
| By: | Andersson, Åke E. (Jönköping International Business School (JIBS)); Johansson, Börje (Jönköping International Business School (JIBS), Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), & Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies (CESIS)) |
| Abstract: | Production theory has remained substantially unchanged since the publication of the Theory of Production by Ragnar Frisch, (1928, 1965). The theory is based on the idea of a firm deciding on the possible input and output combinations of a single unit of production. His theory was substantially copied in contributions by Sune Carlsson (1939) and Erich Schneider (1947), and later by practically all textbooks in microeconomics. The idea is to model the firm as a “black box” in which a finite number of externally purchased inputs are transformed into a finite number of outputs to be sold in the market(s). Most of the time, the prices are externally determined. Often, the production process is summarized by some simplified production function as for example in the form of a CES function. Another and conceptually richer approach is the formulation of an activity analysis model. In the latter case, simple internal interdependencies can be included. In this paper, we indicate how internal interdependencies can also be modeled within a special CES framework. In recent decades, there has been a remarkable growth in the number of production units of firms like IKEA, Walmart and Apple to name a few such global networking firms. Most of the analysis of these network firms has been modeled by logistics and other operations-research analysts and to a limited extent by researchers in business administration schools. Very little has been done in economics. We propose a modelling approach consistent with microeconomic theory. |
| Keywords: | Multilocation firm; management of network firm; collaborative advantages; economies of scale and scope |
| JEL: | D21 D23 D24 D51 D85 F23 L23 R12 |
| Date: | 2017–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0461&r=cta |
| By: | Zack Cooper (School of Public Health, Yale University); Amanda E. Kowalski (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Eleanor Neff Powell (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Jennifer Wu (Department of Political Science, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the link between legislative politics, hospital behavior, and health care spending. When trying to pass sweeping legislation, congressional leaders can attract votes by adding targeted provisions that steer money toward the districts of reluctant legislators. This targeted spending provides tangible local benefits that legislators can highlight when fundraising or running for reelection. We study a provision - Section 508 – that was added to the 2003 Medicare Modernization Act (MMA). Section 508 created a pathway for hospitals to apply to get their Medicare payment rates increased. We find that hospitals represented by members of the House of Representatives who voted ‘Yea’ on the MMA were significantly more likely to receive a 508 waiver than hospitals represented by members who voted ‘Nay.’ Following the payment increase generated by the 508 program, recipient hospitals treated more patients, increased payroll, hired nurses, added new technology, raised CEO pay, and ultimately increased their spending by over $100 million annually. Section 508 recipient hospitals formed the Section 508 Hospital Coalition, which spent millions of dollars lobbying Congress to extend the program. After the vote on the MMA and before the vote to reauthorize the 508 program, members of Congress with a 508 hospital in their district received a 22% increase in total campaign contributions and a 65% increase in contributions from individuals working in the health care industry in the members’ home states. Our work demonstrates a pathway through which the link between politics and Medicare policy can dramatically affect US health spending. |
| JEL: | I10 I18 H51 D72 P16 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:3006&r=cta |
| By: | Ashima Goyal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Vaishnavi Sharma (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | Causality from the capital account (KA) to the current account (CA) of the balance of payments indicates disruption from capital flows while the reverse can indicate smooth financing of the CA that allows investment to exceed domestic savings. A three-variable vector autoregression tests for Granger causality between the Indian CA, KA, KA components, and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) over 2000-01Q1 to 2015-16Q3. Since a current account deficit indicates an excess of investment over savings it is useful to estimate which type of capital flows affect investment. No causality is found to exist in any direction between the KA and the CA. There is only indirect causality through some components. Of the capital flow components only FDI affects GFCF. The latter consistently affects the CA. The CA affects debt portfolio flows and non-resident deposits, suggesting these were used to finance the CA, but they were not causal for GFCF. Volatile flows therefore did not deteriorate the CA, but they also did not contribute to GFCF. India's gradual capital account convertibility may have mitigated shocks from the KA. Long-term sustainability, however, requires FDI to increase compared to other types of flows. |
| Keywords: | Current account, Capital account, Balance of payments, Granger causality, Gross fixed capital formation |
| JEL: | F21 F32 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2017-016&r=cta |
| By: | Voßwinkel, Jan; Birg, Laura |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of an emission tax on the relocation decision of firms, when a duopolistic market is characterized by vertical quality differentiation. The Nash-equilibria of relocation choices depend discontinuously on the cost of relocation φ and the quality difference λ. If also the foreign country F applies an emission tax and both governments set taxes uncooperatively, the high quality firm never relocates to F in equilibrium. |
| JEL: | H23 F18 L13 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168298&r=cta |
| By: | Abhishek Mohan; Agnibho Roy |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose an innovative investment framework incorporating asset allocation and class diversification oriented specifically for the biotechnology industry. With growing interests and capitalization in multiple biotech markets, investors require a more dynamic method of managing their assets within individual portfolios for optimal return efficiency. By selecting a single firm representative of identified industry trends, analyzing financial metrics relevant to the suggested approaches, and assessing financial health, we developed an adaptable investment methodology. We also performed analyses of industrial viability and investigated the implications of the selected strategies, with which we were able to optimize our framework for versatile application within specialized biotech markets. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.03267&r=cta |
| By: | Agnibho Roy; Abhishek Mohan |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we provide an integrated systems modeling approach to analyzing global externalities from a microeconomic perspective. Various forms of policy (fiscal, monetary, etc.) have addressed flaws and market failures in models, but few have been able to successfully eliminate modern externalities that remain an environmental and human threat. We assess three primary global industries (pollution, agriculture, and energy) with respect to non-OECD entities through both qualitative and quantitative studies. By combining key mutual points of specific externalities present within each respective industry, we are able to propose an alternative and optimized solution to internalizing them via incentives and cooperative behavior rather than by traditional Pigouvian taxes and subsidies. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.02755&r=cta |
| By: | Mikhail Pokhoday (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Christoph Scheepers (University of Glasgow); Yury Shtyrov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andriy Myachykov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Understanding the determinants of syntactic choice in sentence production is a salient topic in psycholinguistics. Existing evidence suggests that syntactic choice results from an interplay between linguistic and non-linguistic factors, and a speaker’s attention to the elements of a described event represents one such factor. Whereas multimodal accounts of attention suggest a role for different modalities in this process, existing studies examining attention effects in syntactic choice are primarily based on visual cueing paradigms. Hence, it remains unclear whether attentional effects on syntactic choice are limited to the visual modality or may be subject to cross-modal interaction. The current study addressed this issue. Native English participants viewed and described line drawings of simple transitive events while their attention was directed to the location of the agent or the patient of the depicted event by means of either an auditory (monaural beep) or a motor (unilateral key press) lateral cue. Our results show an effect of cue location, with participants producing more passive-voice descriptions in the patient-cued conditions. Crucially, this cue location effect emerged in the motor-cue but not in the auditory-cue condition, as confirmed by a reliable interaction between cue location (agent vs. patient) and cue type (auditory vs. motor). Our data suggest that attentional effects on the speaker’s syntactic choices are modality dependent and appear to be more prominent in the visuomotor domain than in the auditory domain |
| Keywords: | visual, auditory, motor, attention, sentence production, syntactic choice, priming |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:80psy2017&r=cta |
| By: | Burak Can (Department of Economics, School of Business and Economics, Maastricht University); Ali Ihsan Ozkes (Aix-Marseille Univ. (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS, EHESS and Centrale Marseille); Ton Storcken (Department of Quantitative Economics, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | We provide axiomatic characterizations for measures of polarization in profiles of preferences that are represented as rankings of alternatives. Polarization is seen as the extent to which opinions are opposed. We provide characterizations for an extension of this simple intuition on the pairs of alternatives to the cases with more than two alternatives. Our primary generalization allows for different treatment among issues, i.e., pairs of alternatives. Secondly, we show that the characterization result continues to hold when preferences are allowed to attain indifferences. Finally, we show that we can also impose a domain restriction that only allows for single-peaked preferences and retain our characterization. Our results point to a fundamental feature of measures on profile of preferences that are based on pairwise comparisons of alternatives. |
| Keywords: | polarization, measurement, Social Choice, single-peaked preferences |
| JEL: | D63 D71 D72 D74 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1734&r=cta |
| By: | Ashima Goyal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Akhilesh Verma (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper tests the bank lending channel against the aggregate demand channel as an explanation for slow credit growth by estimating the determinants of credit and of non- performing assets (NPAs) using three types of data sets: a quarterly macroeconomic time series, a bank panel on advances and NPAs and a firm level panel. The results suggest demand was and remains the key constraint for credit. Only demand variables affected corporate credit for a broad set of firms-sales and inventory were the only significant variables. Only for a subset of indebted firms in a difference-in-difference type analysis, did lagged credit and assets reduce credit, even so sales remained the dominant variable. From the bank panel gross NPAs did not have a negative effect on advances but the Asset Quality Review did have a strong negative effect. NPAs fell with growth, increased with repo rates and with past advances Therefore, while high interest rates and low growth raised NPAs, so did past credit. If the priority is to revive assets and get credit flowing again, the valuable deadline imposed by the new bankruptcy code must be supported by flexibility in restructuring, funds infusion in PSBs, and easing of macroeconomic conditions. |
| Keywords: | Credit slowdown; aggregate demand; bank lending; non-performing assets; firm debt |
| JEL: | G21 E51 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2017-014&r=cta |
| By: | Judith A. Cook; Jane K. Burke-Miller; Thomas M. Bohman |
| Abstract: | The Demonstration to Maintain Independence and Employment (DMIE) was authorized under the Ticket to Work and Work Incentives Improvement Act of 1999 and awarded funds to states to develop, implement, and evaluate interventions for workers with potentially disabling health conditions. This brief summarizes findings on the impacts of the Texas DMIE during the five years after the demonstration ended. |
| Keywords: | Demonstration to Maintain Independence and Employment, disability, mental health, Medicaid, employment, DMIE |
| JEL: | I J |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:042747e18e2749aa9ff4c4114fa0b7ba&r=cta |
| By: | Colacce, Maira; Manzi, Pilar; Tenenbaum, Victoria |
| Abstract: | En este estudio se analizan los recursos que el Estado destina en el área social para los menores de 18 años en Uruguay. El análisis del Gasto Público Social por edad es particularmente importante frente a los fuertes cambios demográficos que Uruguay enfrentará en el tiempo. Por otro lado, la importancia del esfuerzo fiscal que el Estado destina a niñas, niños y adolescentes radica en que esta etapa constituye un período fundamental para el desarrollo físico y mental de las personas. Además de su dimensionamiento, es relevante conocer en qué categorías se concentra el gasto y cuán direccionado a los menores de 18 años se encuentra, y así evaluar la intencionalidad del mismo. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col032:42229&r=cta |
| By: | Stanislaus Maier-Paape; Qiji Jim Zhu |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to provide several examples of convex risk measures necessary for the application of the general framework for portfolio theory of Maier-Paape and Zhu, presented in Part I of this series (arXiv:1710.04579 [q-fin.PM]). As alternative to classical portfolio risk measures such as the standard deviation we in particular construct risk measures related to the current drawdown of the portfolio equity. Combined with the results of Part I (arXiv:1710.04579 [q-fin.PM]), this allows us to calculate efficient portfolios based on a drawdown risk measure constraint. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.04818&r=cta |
| By: | Gallier, Carlo |
| Abstract: | I investigate if, how, and why the effect of a contribution rule in a public goods game depends on how it is implemented: endogenously chosen or externally imposed. The rule prescribes full contributions to the public good backed by a nondeterrent sanction for those who do not comply. My experimental design allows me to disentangle to what extent the effect of the contribution rule under democracy is driven by self-selection of treatments, information transmitted via the outcome of the referendum, and democracy per se. In case treatments are endogenously chosen via a democratic decision-making process, the contribution rule significantly increases contributions to the public good. However, democratic participation does not affect participants' contribution behavior directly, after controlling for self-selection of treatments and the information transmitted by voting. |
| Keywords: | laboratory experiment,public good,democracy,endogenous institutions,voting,contribution rule,compliance |
| JEL: | C91 D02 D72 K42 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:17038&r=cta |
| By: | Marco de Pinto (IAAEU Trier and Trier University); Jochen Michaelis (University of Kassel) |
| Abstract: | Empirical evidence suggests that high-productivity firms face stronger trade unions than low-productivity firms. Then a policy that puts all unions into a better bargaining position is no longer neutral for firm selection as in models with a uniform bargaining strength across firms. Using a Melitz-type model, we show that firm selection becomes less severe. Since more low-productivity firms enter the market, the negative employment effect of unionization is mitigated. Neglecting inter-union differences in bargaining power leads to an overestimation of the negative labor market effects. However, trade liberalization increases unemployment because firms with the least powerful labor unions have to leave the market. |
| Keywords: | Trade Unions, Bargaining Power, Firm Heterogeneity, International Trade, Unemployment |
| JEL: | F1 F16 J5 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201743&r=cta |
| By: | Andreas Mraz Esposito; Rebecca Coughlin; Steven Malick; Emily Sama-Miller; Patricia Del Grosso; Rebecca Kleinman; Diane Paulsell |
| Abstract: | The evidence base on home visiting in tribal communities is fairly small. |
| Keywords: | Home Visiting, Effectiveness, Systematic Review, Alaskan Native, Indigenous, Nation(s), Native Hawaiians |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:f7687fac6ba64b4596b382672effad0c&r=cta |
| By: | Martin Wittenberg (Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, School of Economics, DataFirst, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | SALDRU and DataFirst have been at the forefront of measuring poverty and inequality in South Africa. We don't however often enough try to sketch out the "big picture" as to why we do this and what we may have learned. Five years ago I tried to do this in my inaugural lecture. It turns out that everything said in that lecture is still relevant, if not more so. At the time of the lecture there were still some people who were under the impression that the warnings about the problems of unemployment and inequality were overblown. Eight days later the massacre at Marikana happened. I can't claim to have foreseen it; nor did I have an inkling that my warning that we were sitting on a powder keg would be confirmed so rapidly. Although the material is still relevant, the text was designed for a public performance, one which connects to the old rituals and traditions of Universities. One way of reflecting on that was to structure the text like a classical symphony: after the tune-up (in the preamble), a fast movement, followed by a slow one, then a dance and a finale that goes back to themes raised in the intro. While traditions may shape what we do, I was trying to show that one can also innovate on them and given them new content. Furthermore drawing on the strengths in some of these traditions, in my case the memory of my father, is important in moving forward. At the time none of us knew that he was suffering from pancreatic cancer and that my inaugural would be his last major public engagement. While a record of the "performance" has been available for some time (it can be viewed on YouTube ) the text was never released, partially because I had intended to polish and expand on it. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:211&r=cta |
| By: | Giuseppe Conti |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates some historical and philosophical foundations of the gift. In the neoliberal ideology the gift is like a merchant exchange, and evaluable in a simple scheme of supply and demand interactions. This approach was in line with an ethical change about the social consideration of ancient and Thomistic contempt of the chrematistics, opposed to good life. From this reversal of ancient ethos descends the main aspects of a new way of governance of society that narrows personal rights. |
| Keywords: | Innerworldly asceticism, Capitalism as religion, Gift and exchange. |
| Date: | 2017–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2017/224&r=cta |
| By: | von Grebmer, Klaus; Bernstein, Jill; Hossain, Naomi; Brown, Tracy; Prasai, Nilam; Yohannes, Yisehac; Patterson, Fraser; Sonntag, Andrea; Zimmerman, Sophia-Maria; Towey, Olive; Foley, Connell |
| Abstract: | El informe de 2017 del Índice Global del Hambre (GHI, por su sigla en inglés), en su decimosegunda edición anual, presenta una medición multidimensional del hambre a nivel mundial, regional, y nacional. Muestra que el mundo ha avanzado en la reducción del hambre desde el año 2000, pero que todavía queda mucho por hacer, dado que aún persiste un nivel de hambre grave o alarmante en 51 países y extremadamente alarmante en un país. El informe de este año ilustra las desigualdades subyacentes al hambre—incluidas las desigualdades geográficas, de ingresos y de género—y las desigualdades económicas, políticas y sociales en las que aquellas tienen su origen. |
| Keywords: | Americas; South America; Europe; Asia; Africa South of Sahara; Africa; hunger; nutrition; health; malnutrition; gender; women; income; economic development; food policies; food security; nutrition security; inequality |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:synops:9780896292932&r=cta |
| By: | Ehrlich, Isaac (University at Buffalo, SUNY); Li, Dunli (University College London); Liu, Zhiqiang (University at Buffalo, SUNY) |
| Abstract: | We model investment in entrepreneurial human capital (EHC) – the representative enterprise's share of production capacity allocated to investment in innovative industrial and commercial knowledge – as a distinct channel through which firm-specific human capital drives endogenous growth. Our model suggests that institutional factors supporting free markets for goods and ideas, and higher educational attainments of entrepreneurs and workers, enhance endogenous economic growth by augmenting the efficiency of investment in EHC rather than exclusively by themselves. We test these implications using data from Global Entrepreneurship Monitor's Adult Population Survey of 63 countries over 2002–2010 and find robust support for these hypotheses. |
| Keywords: | innovation, entrepreneurship, the market for ideas, human capital, endogenous growth |
| JEL: | L26 O31 O43 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11048&r=cta |
| By: | Mauro Bambi; Siritas Kettanurak |
| Abstract: | The existing contributions on endogenous taxation, and balanced budget rules, suggest that countercyclical taxes should be avoided, because they may lead to aggregate instability (i.e. sunspot equilibria); on the other hand, procyclical taxes have always been praised for their stabilizing role. In this paper, we re-examine this issue in an endogenous growth model with productive government investment, and we prove that an economy with procyclical taxes, and a sufficiently large income effect, can still be characterized by i) global indeterminacy because two balanced growth paths may exist; ii) aggregate instability around the balanced growth path with the lowest growth rate. Finally, we show that this dynamics may emerge for reasonable choices of the parameters. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous growth, time-varying consumption tax, local and global indeterminacy. |
| JEL: | C62 E32 H20 O41 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:yorken:17/14&r=cta |
| By: | Jean-Michel Grandmont (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari; CREST (EXCESS, UMR CNRS 9194), University of Paris-Saclay, France; and RIEB Fellow, University of Kobe, Japan) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the income elasticity of the aggregate budget share spent on a sub-group of commodities, in a competitive framework, by a continuum of agents having the same income, but heterogeneous behavior described by an "homothetic preferences scaling factor" having a bounded Pareto distribution in the population. If individual budget share increases globally significantly in the limit from low to large incomes, aggregate budget share is locally increasing with medium range incomes when the logarithm of the heterogeneity factor has an increasing (exponential) density with a large support. Aggregate income elasticity converges to that exponential density parameter when its support becomes infinitely large. Symmetric results hold in the decreasing case. Applications are made to market expenditures, wealth effects on portfolio choice with many risky assets, concave expenditures, that are compatible with standard (expected) utility maximization or other "behavioral" decision making processes. |
| Keywords: | ICEF, Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University Venice Italy; CREST (EXCESS, UMR CNRS 9194), University of Paris-Saclay, France; and RIEB Fellow, University of Kobe, Japan |
| JEL: | D01 D03 D11 D14 D30 D41 D53 E10 E20 G02 G11 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2017:22&r=cta |
| By: | Alrik Brüning (Chemnitz University of Technology, Department of Economics, Professur Wirtschaftsinformatik II – Systementwicklung und Anwendungssysteme); Peter Gluchowski (Chemnitz University of Technology, Department of Economics, Professur Wirtschaftsinformatik II – Systementwicklung und Anwendungssysteme); Andre Kaiser (Chemnitz University of Technology, Department of Economics, Professur Wirtschaftsinformatik II – Systementwicklung und Anwendungssysteme) |
| Abstract: | Es existiert inzwischen eine ganze Reihe an Konzepten zur Data Governance mit Vorschlägen zur Ausgestaltung und konkreten Umsetzung im Unternehmen. Die jeweiligen Ansätze ordnen Data Governance unterschiedlich in die datenbezogenen Funktionen der Unternehmung ein und sehen auch für die Zuweisung von Aufgaben und Kompetenzen voneinander abweichende Alternativen vor. Wichtig ist dabei, dass Begriffe wie Data Governance, IT-Governance, Datenmanagement oder Datenqualitätsmanagement zwar in Verbindung stehen können, allerdings sehr differenzierte Funktionen mit sich bringen. Ziel des Beitrags ist darum zunächst, die Data Governance begrifflich einzuordnen und im Folgenden ausgewählte Konzepte vorzustellen. Diese können schließlich hinsichtlich der Stellung von Data Governance im Unternehmen vergleichen werden. Da die Bedeutung von Daten in Unternehmen sehr stark gestiegen und im Zuge der Digitalen Transformation und Industrie 4.0 ein weiterer Bedeutungszuwachs zu erwarten ist, beleuchtet der Beitrag schließlich auch aktuelle Herausforderungen für die Data Governance. |
| Keywords: | Data Governance, Datenmanagement, Digitale Transformation |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tch:wpaper:cep015&r=cta |
| By: | Valeria Bignozzi; Claudio Macci; Lea Petrella |
| Abstract: | Due to their heterogeneity, insurance risks can be properly described as a mixture of different fixed models, where the weights assigned to each model may be estimated empirically from a sample of available data. If a risk measure is evaluated on the estimated mixture instead of the (unknown) true one, then it is important to investigate the committed error. In this paper we study the asymptotic behaviour of estimated risk measures, as the data sample size tends to infinity, in the fashion of large deviations. We obtain large deviation results by applying the contraction principle, and the rate functions are given by a suitable variational formula; explicit expressions are available for mixtures of two models. Finally, our results are applied to the most common risk measures, namely the quantiles, the Expected Shortfall and the entropic risk measure. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.03252&r=cta |
| By: | Christian Ewerhart |
| Abstract: | While smooth exact potential games are easily characterized in terms of the cross-derivatives of players' payoff functions, an analogous differentiable characterization of ordinal or generalized ordinal potential games has been elusive for a long time. In this paper, it is shown that the existence of a generalized ordinal potential in a smooth game with multi-dimensional strategy spaces is crucially linked to the semipositivity (Fiedler and Ptak, 1966) of a modified Jacobian matrix on the set of interior strategy profiles at which at least two first-order conditions hold. Our findings imply, in particular, that any generalized ordinal potential game must exhibit pairwise strategic complements or substitutes at any interior Cournot-Nash equilibrium. Moreover, provided that there are more than two players, the cross-derivatives at any interior equilibrium must satisfy a rather stringent equality constraint. The two conditions, which may be conveniently condensed into a local variant of the differentiable condition for weighted potential games, are made explicit for sum-aggregative games, symmetric games, and two-person zero-sum games. For the purpose of illustration, the results are applied to classic games, including probabilistic all-pay contests with heterogeneous valuations, models of mixed oligopoly, and Cournot games with a dominant firm. |
| Keywords: | Ordinal potentials, smooth games, strategic complements and substitutes, semipositive matrices |
| JEL: | C6 C72 D43 D72 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:265&r=cta |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | El cambio climático es uno de los grandes desafíos del siglo XXI debido a sus causas y consecuencias globales y a la magnitud de los esfuerzos necesarios y simultáneos para amortiguar sus impactos negativos, adaptarse a las nuevas condiciones climáticas y llevar a cabo los procesos de mitigación de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El principal objetivo de esta publicación es presentar las hipótesis y las cifras básicas de la economía del cambio climático en América Latina y el Caribe de forma resumida y gráfica. Estos hechos estilizados buscan contribuir a un mejor diseño, instrumentación y evaluación de las políticas públicas referidas al cambio climático en el siglo XXI, de manera que permitan la transformación del actual estilo de desarrollo y la transición hacia un desarrollo sostenible. Además del prólogo y esta introducción, se incluyen nueve tesis y siete desafíos que definen las características del cambio climático en América Latina y el Caribe. |
| Keywords: | CAMBIO CLIMATICO, ASPECTOS ECONOMICOS, AGENDA 2030 PARA EL DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, OBJETIVOS DE DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, CLIMATE CHANGE, ECONOMIC ASPECTS, 2030 AGENDA FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:42228&r=cta |
| By: | Nguyen, Cuong |
| Abstract: | The aging index of Viet Nam's population increased during the past 35 years. In 2014, the aging index was 43.8% for the population from 60 years and older and 30.3% for the population aged 65 and older. In addition, there is a growing trend of elderly people living alone in Viet Nam. In 2014 rural areas had a higher ratio of single elderly people than in urban areas. Women were more likely to live alone than men, and the rate of single elderly people living alone was lower among people who graduated from college or university. Up to 32.4% of the elderly aged 80 years or older in the group of low living conditions were living alone in 2014. This proportion in the group of elderly aged 80 years or older with high living conditions was only 3.1%. Thus there was a large difference in the proportion of elderly people living alone in urban and rural areas and in households with different economic conditions. |
| Keywords: | Elderly, Ageing Trending, Population Census, Vietnam. |
| JEL: | J1 J11 |
| Date: | 2016–11–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81825&r=cta |
| By: | Flüter-Hoffmann, Christiane; Stettes, Oliver; Traub, Patricia |
| Abstract: | Viele Menschen stehen trotz ihrer Erkrankung an Multipler Sklerose (MS) als qualifizierte Fachkräfte aktiv im Berufsleben, so die Ergebnisse einer empirischen REHADAT-Studie auf Basis einer Befragung von rund 750 Betroffenen. Die überwiegende Mehrheit der Befragten, nämlich zwei Drittel, arbeitet in Vollzeit und ein Viertel kann seinen beruflichen Verpflichtungen nachkommen, ohne auf unterstützende Maßnahmen angewiesen zu sein. Etwa jeder sechste Beschäftigte in der Befragung fühlt sich bislang nicht durch die Erkrankung im Arbeitsleben eingeschränkt. Wenn Unterstützungsbedarf besteht, verlassen sich die meisten Betroffenen auf die Hilfe ihrer Vorgesetzten und Kollegen. Flexible Arbeitszeiten werden ebenso als hilfreich wahrgenommen. Die Beschäftigten mit einer MS-Erkrankung nutzen ferner häufig Seh- und Mobilitätshilfen, ergonomisches Arbeitsmobiliar, Hebe- und Transportgeräte sowie spezielle Computer und Software. Eine offene Kommunikation trägt dazu bei, dass die Arbeitsplätze adäquat auf die individuellen Anforderungen zugeschnitten werden können. Beschäftigte, die offen mit ihrer Erkrankung umgehen, berichten sechs Mal so häufig, dass ihr Arbeitsplatz angemessen gestaltet ist, um problemlos die beruflichen Aufgaben erfüllen zu können. Gleichwohl besteht noch Aufklärungsbedarf - sowohl auf der Seite der Betroffenen, die gern im Arbeitsleben verbleiben wollen, als auch auf der Seite der Betriebe, in denen vielfach das Wissen über den Umgang und über Unterstützungsmöglichkeiten von Beschäftigten mit MS fehlt. Den betroffenen Menschen fehlen vor allem Informationen zu rechtlichen und finanziellen Aspekten. Nur eine Minderheit fühlt sich zur Erkrankung und zu den beruflichen Auswirkungen gut informiert. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:25a2017&r=cta |
| By: | Bilotkach, Volodymyr; Braakmann, Nils; Gonzalo-Almorox, Eduardo; Wildman, John |
| Abstract: | High house prices are often considered to be beneficial for the elderly due to the accumulation of wealth. However, as land is an input in the provision of public services, the elderly might be harmed by them, for example, due to a shortage of local care homes. Alternatively, care home providers might be attracted by asset-rich potential clients, which could lead to a positive effect of house prices on the provision of care. Applying an instrumental variables approach on English data, we show that higher house prices lead to fewer care homes, fewer entries into the market as well as fewer available beds. |
| Keywords: | Care homes, house prices, long-term care, England |
| JEL: | I11 R31 |
| Date: | 2017–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81987&r=cta |
| By: | Assaad, Ragui (University of Minnesota); Krafft, Caroline (St. Catherine University); Yassin, Shaimaa (University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | There is potential for measurement problems in both retrospective and panel microdata. In this paper we compare results on basic indicators related to labor markets and their dynamics from retrospective and panel survey data in Egypt, in order to determine the conditions under which results are similar or different. Specifically, we (1) assess the consistency of reporting of time-invariant characteristics in different waves of the panel, (2) compare the retrospective and panel data results on past labor market statuses, (3) assess the consistency of estimates of labor market transition rates across two specific dates by comparing panel and retrospective data, (4) assess the consistency of estimates of the level and trends of annual labor market transition rates across retrospective data from different waves of the survey, and (5) assess whether retrospective data can provide accurate trends of labor market aggregates, such as unemployment rates. We find that it is possible to garner useful information on labor market dynamics from retrospective data, but one must be cautious about which information to trust and at what level of detail. We conclude with a discussion of implications for future research as well as future survey design. |
| Keywords: | panel data, retrospective data, survey data, measurement error, labor markets, Egypt |
| JEL: | C83 C81 J01 J62 J64 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11052&r=cta |
| By: | Remy Oddou |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effect of allowances, whose amount depends on jurisdictions, on the segregative properties of endogenous formation of jurisdictions. Households choosing to live at the same place form a jurisdiction whose aim is to produce a local public good and to implement a redistribution policy, by granting every household an allowance whose amount is determined by the jurisdiction. In every jurisdiction, the production of the local public services and the allowance are financed with a local tax based upon the households’ wealth. Local wealth tax rates and the level of the allowance are exogenously determined in every jurisdiction. Households are free to leave their jurisdiction for another jurisdiction that would provide them with their highest utility. We find that the existence of an allowance mitigates the segregative properties of endogenous jurisdiction formation, as the condition identified by Gravel and Thoron to ensure the segregation of any stable jurisdiction structure remains necessary, but is no longer sufficient. |
| Keywords: | Jurisdictions; Segregation; Allowance |
| JEL: | C78 D02 H73 R13 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2017-42&r=cta |
| By: | Yao Cheng; Zaifu Yang |
| Abstract: | This paper considers a general and practical kidney exchange model with compatible or incompatible patient-donor pairs, single donors, and patients on the waiting list. Efficient exchange procedures are proposed with dichotomous preferences in which only one-way, two-way, three, or four-way chains or cycles of exchange are used. We derive a tight upper bound of the possible number of feasible kidney transplants in each case of exchange and provide substantial simulation results. We find that two-way cycles and chains of exchange can substantially increase the number of feasible transplants, threeway can have a visible effect, and at most four-way cycles and chains suffice to capture all potential gains of exchange. Our results are not only theoretically interesting but also have meaningful policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Kidney Exchange, Efficiency, Matching, Simulation. |
| JEL: | C78 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:yorken:17/13&r=cta |
| By: | Stephanie Carlson (University of Minnesota); Yuichi Shoda (University of Washington); Ozlem Ayduk (University of California at Berkeley); Lawrence Aber (New York University); Catherine Schaefer (Pennsylvania State University); Anita Sethi (The Happy Montessori School); Nicole Wilson (University of Washington); Philip Peake (Smith College); Walter Mischel (Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | In the 1960s at Stanford University’s Bing Preschool, children were given the option of taking an immediate, smaller reward or receiving a delayed, larger reward by waiting until the experimenter returned. Since then, the "Marshmallow Test" has been used in numerous studies to assess delay-of-gratification. Yet, no prior study has compared the performance of children across the decades. Common wisdom suggests children today would wait less long, preferring immediate gratification. Study 1 confirmed this intuition in a survey of adults in the U.S. (N = 354; Median age = 34 years). To test the validity of this intuition, in Study 2 we analyzed the original data for average delay-of-gratification times (out of 10 min) of 840 typically developing U.S. children in three birth cohorts from similar middle-high socioeconomic backgrounds, tested 20 years apart (1960s, 1980s, and 2000s), matched on age (3-5 years) at the time of testing. In contrast to popular belief, results revealed a linear increase in delay over time, such that children in the 2000s waited on average 2 min longer than children in the 1960s, and 1 min longer than children in the 1980s. This pattern was robust with respect to age, sex, geography and sampling effects. We posit that increases in symbolic thought, technology, and public attention to self-regulation have contributed to this finding, but caution that more research in diverse populations is needed to examine the generality of the findings and to identify the causal factors underlying them. |
| Keywords: | delay of gratification, Marshmallow Test, executive function, cohort effect, preschool |
| JEL: | C91 D03 I21 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2017-077&r=cta |
| By: | M. Hashem Pesaran; Qiankun Zhou |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a new comparative analysis of pooled least squares and fixed effects estimators of the slope coefficients in the case of panel data models when the time dimension (T) is fixed while the cross section dimension (N) is allowed to increase without bounds. The individual effects are allowed to be correlated with the regressors, and the comparison is carried out in terms of an exponent coefficient, delta, which measures the degree of pervasiveness of the fixed effects in the panel. The use of delta allows us to distinguish between poolability of small N dimensional panels with large T from large N dimensional panels with small T. It is shown that the pooled estimator remains consistent so long as delta |
| Keywords: | Short panel, Fixed e¤ects estimator, Pooled estimator, Pretest estimator, Efficiency, Diagnostic test |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsu:lsuwpp:2017-13&r=cta |
| By: | Djuric, Uros; Neugart, Michael |
| Abstract: | We fielded a representative survey among the German population randomly assigning respondents to various unconventional monetary policy scenarios that raise household income. We find that in all policy treatments people spend almost 40% of the transfer. Spending shares are independent of whether the transfer is debt financed and provided by the government or provided by the central bank as "helicopter money". |
| JEL: | E21 E52 E58 E63 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168062&r=cta |
| By: | Paul Goodwin (University of Bath); Dilek Önkal (University of Bradford); Herman O. Stekler (The George Washington University) |
| Abstract: | Many studies have examined the extent to which individuals’ probability judgments depart from Bayes’ theorem when revising probability estimates in the light of new information. Generally, these studies have not considered the implications of such departures for decisions involving risk. We identify when such departures will occur in two common types of decisions. We then report on two experiments where people were asked to revise their own prior probabilities of a forthcoming economic recession in the light of new information. When the reliability of the new information was independent of the state of nature, people tended to overreact to it if their prior probability was low and underreact if it was high. When it was not independent, they tended to display conservatism. We identify the circumstances where discrepancies in decisions arising from a failure to use Bayes’ theorem were most likely to occur in the decision context we examined. We found that these discrepancies were relatively rare and, typically, were not serious. |
| Keywords: | decision processes; Bayes’ theorem; judgmental biases; risk |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2017-003&r=cta |
| By: | Angel Cuevas (Universidad Carlos III Madrid); Ruben Cuevas (Universidad Carlos III Madrid); Andrea Lassmann (KOF, ETH Zurich); Federica Liberini (KOF, ETH Zurich); Antonio Russo (KOF, ETH Zurich) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of the taxation of digital platforms on the online advertising market. We exploit novel data on daily unit prices of Facebook ads targeted to country-specific audiences, collected around a major change in the firm's accounting practices following the introduction of the UK Diverted Profit Tax. We show that a substantial increase in ads prices followed such change, although with heterogeneous intensity across countries. These results are in line with a model of a platform operating in the global advertising market. We show that taxation of profits generated in one country makes the price charged to advertisers from that country (resp. other countries) increase (decrease). Accordingly, we demonstrate that aggregate advertising prices in OECD countries increased more, after the policy change, the larger is the market share of UK-based advertisers. |
| Keywords: | tax incidence; digital economy; online advertising |
| JEL: | H22 H25 F16 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:1709&r=cta |
| By: | John Deke; Thomas Wei; Tim Kautz |
| Abstract: | The authors examine the potential for small biases to increase the risk of making false inferences as studies are powered to detect smaller impacts and recommend strategies researchers can use to avoid or mitigate these biases. |
| Keywords: | bias, power, randomized controlled trial, regression discontinuity design, evaluation methodology |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:f0ff8f86e3c34dc8baaf22b564ed8081&r=cta |
| By: | Yaneer Bar-Yam; Jean Langlois-Meurinne; Mari Kawakatsu; Rodolfo Garcia |
| Abstract: | We consider the relationship between economic activity and intervention, including monetary and fiscal policy, using a universal dynamic framework. Central bank policies are designed for growth without excess inflation. However, unemployment, investment, consumption, and inflation are interlinked. Understanding dynamics is crucial to assessing the effects of policy, especially in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Here we lay out a program of research into monetary and economic dynamics and preliminary steps toward its execution. We use principles of response theory to derive implications for policy. We find that the current approach, which considers the overall money supply, is insufficient to regulate economic growth. While it can achieve some degree of control, optimizing growth also requires a fiscal policy balancing monetary injection between two dominant loop flows, the consumption and wages loop, and investment and returns loop. The balance arises from a composite of government tax, entitlement, subsidy policies, corporate policies, as well as monetary policy. We show empirically that a transition occurred in 1980 between two regimes--an oversupply to the consumption and wages loop, to an oversupply of the investment and returns loop. The imbalance is manifest in savings and borrowing by consumers and investors, and in inflation. The latter increased until 1980, and decreased subsequently, resulting in a zero rate largely unrelated to the financial crisis. Three recessions and the financial crisis are part of this dynamic. Optimizing growth now requires shifting the balance. Our analysis supports advocates of greater income and / or government support for the poor who use a larger fraction of income for consumption. This promotes investment due to growth in demand. Otherwise, investment opportunities are limited, capital remains uninvested, and does not contribute to growth. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.06285&r=cta |
| By: | Alexandre de Corniere (Toulouse School of Economics, France); Miklos Sarvary (Columbia Business School, USA) |
| Abstract: | The growing influence of internet platforms acting as content aggregators is one of the most important challenges facing the media industry. We develop a parsimonious model to understand the impact of content bundling by a social platform. In our model consumers can access news either directly through a newspaper's website, or indirectly through a platform, which also offers social content. Even though the platform shares revenues with newspapers whose content it publishes, content bundling harms newspapers. Its effect on news quality and news consumption depends on the media market structure and on whether the platform can personalize the content bundle. |
| Keywords: | User-Generated Content (UGC), Media Competition, News Quality |
| JEL: | L13 L43 L96 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:1707&r=cta |
| By: | Najda-Janoszka, Marta |
| Abstract: | The transition period in the industry life cycle induces a profound reconfiguration in the competitive landscape. A shift from an early, fluid state to a mature stage generates both strategic threats and opportunities for capturing value by incumbents as well as new entrants. Thus the challenge is to identify early harbingers of that transition in order to formulate an appropriate strategic response allowing for protecting and strengthening captured value streams. Existing gaps regarding causal explanations of industry transformation and the processual nature of value appropriation ignited the discussion presented in the article. The aim of this study is to enhance the understanding of the dynamics of the value capture process by examining the features of industry transition. A thorough review of the theoretical and empirical studies on the subject matter enabled formulation of propositions that refer to the problem of identification of transition signals and relate the competitive dynamics of the transition period with the value capture practices. |
| Keywords: | industry transition, industry life-cycle, value appropriation, value capture |
| JEL: | M00 M2 O33 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81919&r=cta |
| By: | Asali, Muhammad (ISET, Tbilisi State University); Pignatti, Norberto (ISET, Tbilisi State University); Skhirtladze, Sophiko (ISET, Tbilisi State University) |
| Abstract: | We provide the first experimental evidence about ethnic discrimination in the labor market in Georgia. We randomly assign Georgian and non-Georgian, male and female, names to similar resumes and apply for jobs as advertised in help-wanted web sites in Georgia. We find that gender has no effect on the probability of callback, but a job applicant who is ethnic Georgian is twice more likely to be called for a job interview than an equally skilled ethnic non-Georgian (Azeri or Armenian). The almost 100% gap in callbacks is statistically significant and cannot be abridged by having more experience or education. Both taste-based discrimination and statistical discrimination models are consistent with the evidence provided in this study. Labor market discrimination tends to aggravate in economic busts. |
| Keywords: | employment discrimination, field experiment, former Soviet Union, business cycles |
| JEL: | J15 J71 C93 P23 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11056&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Dieser Aufsatz geht aus einer wirtschaftsethischen Perspektive der Frage nach, inwiefern es einen Ressourcenfluch gibt und mit Hilfe welcher institutionellen Vorkehrungen gegenwärtig versucht wird, armen Staaten, die über reiche Rohstoffvorkommen verfügen, eine nachhaltige Entwicklung zu ermöglichen. Die Argumentation gliedert sich gedanklich in 3 Schritte: (a) Ausgehend von Paul Colliers 5-Stufen-Modell wird erläutert, dass die nachhaltige Nutzung natürlicher Ressourcen ein „weakest-link“-Problem darstellt. So wird verständlich, dass Entwicklungsländer auf äußere Hilfe in Form von New-Governance-Initiativen angewiesen sind. (b) Sodann wird der Kimberley-Prozess als New-Governance-Initiative vorgestellt. Hier zeigen sich deutlich die Schwächen, die bei dem Versuch auftreten können, in trisektoraler Zusammenarbeit von staatlichen, wirtschaftlichen und zivilgesellschaftlichen Akteuren neue Regelsysteme mit verbesserten Anreizwirkungen ins Werk zu setzen. (c) Abschließend wird anhand von „EITI“ und anhand der „OECD Guidelines“ sowie anhand zahlreicher weiterer Initiativen gezeigt, wie gegenwärtig versucht wird, ein globales Regulierungsregime aufzubauen, das auf eine nachhaltige Entwicklung zielt. |
| Keywords: | Ressourcenfluch,nachhaltige Entwicklung,New Governance,EITI,Kimberley-Prozess,OECD Guidelines,Resource Curse,Sustainable Development,New Governance,EITI,Kimberley process,OECD Guidelines |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201602&r=cta |
| By: | Sebastian Bauhoff; Lisa Fischer; Dirk Göpffarth; Amelie C. Wuppermann |
| Abstract: | Many competitive health insurance markets adjust payments to participating health plans according to their enrollees’ risk – including based on diagnostic information. We investigate responses of German health plans to the introduction of morbidity-based risk adjustment in the Statutory Health Insurance in 2009, which triggers payments based on “validated†diagnoses by providers. Using the regulator’s data from office-based physicians, we estimate a difference-in-difference analysis of the change in the share and number of validated diagnoses for ICD codes that are inside or outside the risk adjustment but are otherwise similar. We find a differential increase in the share of validated diagnoses of 2.6 and 3.6 percentage points (3-4%) between 2008 and 2013. This increase appears to originate from both a shift from not-validated toward validated diagnoses and an increase in the number of such diagnoses. Overall, our results indicate that plans were successful in influencing physicians’ coding practices in a way that could lead to higher payments. |
| Keywords: | health plan payment, risk adjustment, managed competition, diagnostic coding, German Statutory Health Insurance |
| JEL: | H51 I10 I13 I18 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6507&r=cta |
| By: | Schupp, Fabian; Silbermann, Leonid |
| Abstract: | We analyze whether, and if so by how much, stable funding would have contributed to the financial soundness of German banks in the time period between 1995 and 2013, before the Basel III liquidity regulation to address excessive maturity mismatches in the wake of the financial crisis via the Net Stable Funding Ratio can be expected to have been fully implemented. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 C23 C25 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168166&r=cta |
| By: | Drometer, Marcus; Méango, Romuald |
| Abstract: | Using a panel of naturalizations in U.S. states from 1965 to 2012, we empirically analyze the impact of elections on immigration policy. Our results indicate that immigration policy is (partly) driven by national elections: there are more naturalizations in presidential election years and during the terms of Democratic incumbents. Further, the partisan effects are more pronounced in politically contested states, in states with higher levels of immigration and driven by immigrants from Latin America. |
| JEL: | H11 D72 F22 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168253&r=cta |
| By: | Hou, Yang; Nartea, Gilbert |
| Abstract: | This paper examines time-varying price discovery of the Chinese stock index futures market during a stock market crash in 2015. We find that the index futures market plays a long-run leading role in terms of its higher static and dynamic generalised information share (GIS) than both the Shanghai and Shenzhen A share markets during the market turbulence. The expected trading volume in each market improves GIS of that market. The importance of trading activities by the majority of investors in increasing market efficiency during a crash is underscored. Government intervention on futures trading impairs price discovery in the futures market. |
| Keywords: | Generalised Information Share, Price Discovery, GARCH model, Chinese stock market crash, Chinese stock index futures |
| JEL: | G13 G14 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81995&r=cta |
| By: | King Yoong Lim |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an overlapping generations growth model with heterogeneous labour, endogenous unemployment, and public sector corruption. Unlike most previous studies, the model does not separate public officials and private individuals into two distinct groups. Instead, taking up bureaucratic appointment as a public servant is modelled as an occupational choice, which then allows for the endogenous determination of the proportion of public o¢fficials, the share of corrupt officials among them, and the public investment efficiency of the economy within the dynamic system. Parameterised for Nigeria, the dynamics of endogenous corruption and unemployment, as well as their policy tradeoff, are studied using numerical policy experiments based on relevant themes in the country, which include public sector downsizing and social intervention schemes. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth, Corruption, Nigeria, Public Sector Efficiency, Unemployment |
| JEL: | H30 H54 O41 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lan:wpaper:198144263&r=cta |
| By: | Türkcan, Kemal; Saygili, Hülya |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the role of vertical differentiation linked with global production networks in increasing the chance of export survival using highly disaggregated machinery exports data from Turkey for the 1998-2013 period. Results obtained from the descriptive statistics analysis suggest that the duration of Turkey's machinery exports is remarkably short with a median duration of merely one year. In addition, the likelihood of the survival of exports varies widely across total machinery, finished and parts and components as well as across trade types (horizontally and vertically differentiated products). Based on discrete-time duration models, the empirical results demonstrate that vertical differentiation together with product and market diversification are associated with a higher export survival rate, particularly for parts and components. The evidence hence supports the hypothesis that global production sharing activities greatly increase the chances of survival in export markets. |
| Keywords: | export duration,survival analysis,vertical differentiation,global production networks |
| JEL: | F10 F14 C41 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201781&r=cta |
| By: | Stephanie M. Jones; Jennifer Kahn |
| Abstract: | Compelling research demonstrates what parents have always known—the success of young people in school and beyond is inextricably linked to healthy social and emotional development. |
| Keywords: | Students, Social, Emotional, Academic development |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:2d8a7d46adb54cfebbd00f1e5b38b29c&r=cta |
| By: | Behringer, Stefan; Upmann, Thorsten |
| Abstract: | In standard models of spatial harvesting, the resource is distributed over the complete domain and the agent is able to control the harvesting activity everywhere. In some cases, it is more realistic to assume that the resource is located at a single point and that the agent is required to travel. The agent faces a combined travelling–and–harvesting problem. We scrutinize this two-stage optimal control problem and characterise the optimal policy of the full travelling–and–harvesting problem. |
| JEL: | Q20 Q22 C61 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168250&r=cta |
| By: | Shirota, Toyoichiro |
| Abstract: | This study develops a framework to identify persistent and transitory shocks in exchange-rate movements and to estimate the shock-specific exchange-rate pass-through to domestic prices. The framework combines a dataset of a long time series of exchange-rate forecasts since the 1980s with a range restriction that is a natural generalization of the standard sign restriction. The empirical results show that exchange rate pass-through is higher when a persistent shock dominates exchange-rate movements. The composition of persistent and transitory shocks varies over time. This study asserts that time variations of exchange rate pass-through are at least partly attributable to differences in shock-specific pass-through rates and variations in the composition of shocks over time. Applying our identification procedure to disaggregated prices of the CPI, we also find that a correlation between pass-through coefficients and frequencies of price adjustments is shock dependent. Specifically, the positive correlation, which is reported in Gopinath and Itskhoki [2010], disappears, when exchange-rate movements are transitory. |
| Keywords: | exchange-rate pass-through, exchange-rate persistence, range restriction, survey expectation, |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hok:dpaper:311&r=cta |
| By: | Francis Leni Anguyo (School of Economics, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa and Research Department, Bank of Uganda, Kampala, Uganda); Rangan Gupta (University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa and IPAG Business School, Paris, France); Kevin Kotzé (School of Economics, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the measurement of inflation persistence in Uganda and how this has changed over time. As the data does not follow a normal distribution, we make use of the quantile regression approach to investigate how various shocks may affect the rate of inflation within different quantiles. The measures of inflation include headline inflation, the central bank's measure of core inflation, and an alternative measure of core inflation. The results suggest that while a unit root is found in many of the upper quantiles of headline inflation, there is evidence of mean reversion within the lower quantiles. In addition, we find higher levels of persistence after 2006 and during the inflation-targeting period. When considering the degree of persistence in the central bank's measure of core inflation, the results suggest that there is a unit root in this measure during the inflation-targeting period. In addition, the alternative measure of core inflation, which is derived from a wavelets transformation, provides similar results. However, this measure is less volatile and more correlated with headline inflation. All the results suggest that large positive deviations from the mean would influence the permanent behaviour of inflation, while small negative deviations are relatively short-lived. |
| Keywords: | Inflation persistence, Quantile regression, Structural break, monetary policy |
| JEL: | C22 E31 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201772&r=cta |
| By: | Goerke, Laszlo; Neugart, Michael |
| Abstract: | Social comparisons matter for workers' valuation of their wage. The consequences of so- cial comparisons in imperfectly competitive markets are less well understood. We analyze an oligopsonistic model of the labor market where workers derive (dis-) utility from comparing their own wage with wages paid at other firms. As social comparisons become more preva- lent all wages rise, the wage distribution becomes more equal, and employment shifts to high productivity firms. Overall welfare increases. |
| JEL: | D62 J22 J42 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168095&r=cta |
| By: | Ramos Suárez, Eduardo; Muñoz, Cristina; Pérez, Gabriel |
| Abstract: | El presente documento explora la génesis, profundización, resolución y transformación de los conflictos sociales vinculados con las industrias extractivas, con miras a los distintos contextos económicos, sociopolíticos e históricos de la región. Para ello presenta distintas visiones del problema, tanto desde el punto de vista del gobierno, como del sector privado y las comunidades locales. El documento presenta el vínculo entre la nueva gobernanza de los recursos naturales para América Latina y el Caribe promovida por la CEPAL y los distintos mecanismos existentes para la superación de la conflictividad social aplicables al sector de las industrias extractivas. |
| Keywords: | INDUSTRIA, RECURSOS NATURALES, DESARROLLO INDUSTRIAL, ASPECTOS AMBIENTALES, PROTECCION AMBIENTAL, GOBERNABILIDAD, CONFLICTO SOCIAL, ESTUDIOS DE CASOS, INDUSTRY, NATURAL RESOURCES, INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, GOVERNANCE, SOCIAL CONFLICT, CASE STUDIES |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col042:42173&r=cta |
| By: | Benjamin B.Dunford; Kevin J. Mumford; R. Wayne Boss; Alan D. Boss; David S. Boss |
| Abstract: | We analyzed an eight-year multi-source longitudinal data set that followed a healthcare system in the Eastern United States as it implemented a major conflict management initiative to encourage line managers to consistently perform Personal Management Interviews (or PMIs) with their employees. PMIs are interviews held between two individuals, designed to prevent or quickly resolve interpersonal problems before they escalate to formal grievances. This initiative provided us a unique opportunity to empirically test key predictions of Integrated Conflict Management System (or ICMS) theory. Analyzing survey and personnel file data from 5,449 individuals from 2003 to 2010, we found that employees whose managers provided high-quality interviews perceived significantly higher participative work climates and had lower turnover rates. However, retention was worse when managers provided poor-quality interviews than when they conducted no interviews at all. Together these findings highlight the critical role that line mangers play in the success of conflict management systems. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pur:prukra:1302&r=cta |
| By: | Murat Anil Mercan (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This study bridges a gap in the literature by examining the relationship between working hours and the probability of mortality among older workers in the United States. We have applied the Cox regression method, a frequently used approach in survival analysis, to panel data from the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS). We have found a small negative relationship exists between working hours and the probability of mortality. This study’s findings may raise questions about the need for initiatives in the European Union and other countries that regulate the length of work schedules. |
| Keywords: | mortality, working hours, the United States, male, female |
| JEL: | J01 J81 |
| Date: | 2017–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:geb:wpaper:2017-01&r=cta |
| By: | Quint, Dominic; Rabanal, Pau |
| Abstract: | After the recent crisis, central banks deployed unconventional monetary policies (UMP) to affect credit conditions and to provide liquidity at a large scale. We study if UMP should still be used when economic conditions normalize. Using an estimated non-linear DSGE model with a banking sector and long-term debt for the US, we show that the benefits of using UMP in normal times are substantial. However, the benefits are shock-dependent and mostly arise when the economy is hit by financial shocks. |
| JEL: | C32 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168218&r=cta |
| By: | Yinbo Feng (School of Management, Fudan University, Shanghai, China, 200433); Ming Hu (Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5S 3E6) |
| Abstract: | We provide a theory unifying the long tail and blockbuster phenomenon. Specifically, we analyze a three-stage game where the firms first make entry decisions, then decide on the investment in its product and lastly customers sequentially arrive to make purchase decisions based on product quality and historic sales under the network effect. We analytically show that a growing network effect always contributes to the demand concentration on a small number of products. However, product variety and quality investments, as an outcome of firms¡¯ ex-ante competitive decisions, may increase or decrease, as the network effect grows. When the network effect parameter is smaller than a threshold, the increasing network effect would shift more demand towards the products with higher qualities, preempting more products from entering the market ex ante and inducing firms to adopt the blockbuster equilibrium strategy by making larger quality investment. When the network effect is stronger than the threshold, the increasing network effect would make the market easily concentrated to a few products. Even some low quality ones may have chances to become a ¡°hit.¡± Interestingly, in this case, the ex-ante equilibrium product variety would be broader and firms adopt the niche equilibrium strategy by maker smaller quality investment. We empirically test the theory with the movie box office data and find strong supporting evidence. |
| Keywords: | long tail; blockbuster; niche; product variety; network effect |
| JEL: | C72 D43 L11 L25 M21 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:1713&r=cta |
| By: | Andrew D. Foster; Mark R. Rosenzweig |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to explain the U-shaped relationship between farm productivity and farm scale - the initial fall in productivity as farm size increases from its lowest levels and the continuous upward trajectory as scale increases after a threshold - observed across the world and in low-income countries. We show that the existence of labor-market transaction costs can explain why the smallest farms are most efficient, slightly larger farms least efficient and larger farms as efficient as the smallest farms. We show that to explain the rising upper tail of the U characteristic of high-income countries requires there be economies of scale in the ability of machines to accomplish tasks at lower costs at greater operational scales. Using data from the India ICRISAT VLS panel survey we find evidence consistent with these conditions, suggesting that there are too many farms, at scales insufficient to exploit locally-available equipment-capacity scale-economies. |
| JEL: | O13 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23909&r=cta |
| By: | Thomas Eichner; Rüdiger Pethig |
| Abstract: | We consider a world economy, in which the global public good ’biodiversity’ is positively correlated with that share of land which is protected by land-use restrictions against the deterioration of habitats and ecosystems. The willingness-to-pay for biodiversity conservation is positive in ’rich’ developed countries (North), but very low in ’poor’ developing countries (South). Taking the no-policy scenario (Regime 1) as our point of departure, we analyze the changes in allocations and welfare when the North financially supports biodiversity conservation in the South – as stipulated in the Convention on Biological Diversity (1992). We model that support as a market for biodiversity conservation and distinguish the cases, in which the North does (Regime 3) or does not (Regime 2) coordinate its biodiversity conservation actions. Our numerical examples exhibit various unexpected and even undesirable results. The move from Regime 1 to Regime 2 hardly improves welfare and biodiversity in our examples irrespective of whether governments act strategically. That may explain the low level of North’s financial support of biodiversity in the South we observe in practice. Without strategic action, the move from Regime 1 to 3 enhances aggregate welfare, because Regime 3 is efficient, but the North or the South may be worse off due to unfavorable changes in their terms-of-trade. If governments act strategically, the aggregate welfare may decline when moving from Regime 1 to 3, but the welfare changes with opposite signs for North and South tend to be smaller than without strategic action. |
| Keywords: | biodiversity, conservation, protected areas, developing countries |
| JEL: | Q15 Q57 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6294&r=cta |
| By: | De Martiis, Angela; Fidrmuc, Jarko |
| Abstract: | We analyze how regional quality affects firm’s efficiency by identifying the impaired firms receiving financial assistance as those paying an implicit interest rate lower than the prime rate. Then, we decompose them into: real impaired firms unable to repay their loans, and those not repaying their debts even if financially they could. The regions with a high share of loans and crime exhibit a higher concentration of distressed firms, and crime increases the performance of existing companies. |
| JEL: | O43 E51 G33 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168234&r=cta |
| By: | Tiago Fonseca (World Maritime University; CEG-IST, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa); Francisco Lima (CEG-IST, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa); Sonia C. Pereira (Barnard College, Columbia University and Columbia School of Social Work) |
| Abstract: | As job markets have been polarizing, firms have been changing their labor inputs.By using matched employer-employee data for Portugal, we examine whether labor market polarization has occurred within or across firms and how labor input upgrades have contributed to overall productivity growth. We develop a firm taxonomy based on worker’s occupational data. Firms can be focused on one task – Abstract, Manual or Routine – on a combination of tasks, or none. Results show that Abstract firms are the most productive and their share has increased over time. Manual firms, the least productive, have had a stable share throughout the period. Routine firms have seen their share decline over time. The dynamic decomposition of the estimated productivity reveal that productivity growth is propelled by increased market shares of the most productive incumbents and exiting of the least productive, especially for Abstract firms. Notwithstanding these productivity growth drivers, they fail to avert the productivity stagnation observed in Portugal between 2004 and 2009 due to the overall decline in productivity of incumbent firms, especially Routine. We discuss the policy implications of our results which are relevant to other European economies also lagging behind in terms of knowledge and innovation capabilities. |
| Keywords: | Taxonomy, productivity, routinization, technological change, polarization |
| JEL: | D24 L23 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mde:wpaper:0080&r=cta |
| By: | Philipp Kohlgruber (University of Graz, Austria); Christoph Kuzmics (University of Graz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | We build an oligopoly model of the market of scientific journals that allows us to relate the (in-)efficiency of this market to the exogenous distribution of article quality. Journal quality is endogenously determined by the submission choices of scientists. The efficiency of any stable equilibrium depends crucially on the exogenous distribution of article quality, especially on the fatness of the upper tail. For the empirically plausible Pareto distribution the market is inefficient even in the limit as the number of publishers tends to infinity. |
| Keywords: | Oligopoly; Natural monopoly; Efficiency; Price competition; Endogenous product differentiation |
| JEL: | C72 C73 D43 L13 L15 L82 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2017-11&r=cta |
| By: | Korth, Paula.; Richter, Patricia. |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this report is to share the experience from Asia and the Pacific and open the eyes of the stakeholders as to where the financial industry stands these days. In doing so, this report also proposes an engagement agenda for the industry and calls on the DFIs from Asia and the Pacific and the ILO to continue the collaboration to increase the social capacity of development finance on the continent and beyond. |
| Keywords: | social finance, aid financing, development aid, social development, sustainable development, role of ILO, Asia, Pacific |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994898083402676&r=cta |
| By: | Wang, Haining; Cheng, Zhiming; Smyth, Russell |
| Abstract: | We examine the educational spillover effects of migrant students on local students’ academic achievement in public middle schools in urban China. The identification of peer effects relies on idiosyncratic variation in the proportion of migrant students across classes within schools. We find that the proportion of migrant students in each class has a small, and positive, effect on local students’ test scores in Chinese, but has no significant effect on math and English test scores. We also find considerable evidence of heterogeneity in the effects of the proportion of students in the class on local students’ test scores across subsamples. Local students toward the bottom of the achievement distribution, local students enrolled in small classes and local students enrolled in lower-ranked schools benefit most in terms of test scores from having a higher proportion of migrant students in their class. Our findings have important policy implications for the debate in China about the inclusion of migrant students in urban schools, and for the assignment of educational resources across schools. |
| Keywords: | migrant student,peer effects,academic achievement,China |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:130&r=cta |
| By: | Stagnaro, Carlo; Amenta, Carlo; Di Croce, Giulia; Lavecchia, Luciano |
| Abstract: | Italian electricity consumers have been free to choose their supplier since 2007, but about 66 percent are still supplied under the so-called maggior tutela, a regulated regime. Italy’s Annual Competition Law states that regulated prices will be phased out by July 1st, 2019. This paper performs an analysis of the country’s retail electricity market following the structure-conduct-performance paradigm. Two main issues emerge that need to be addressed: market concentration and consumer inertia. The paper proposes several policy tools, aimed at both the supply and the demand side, aimed at promoting supply diversification, market entry and an increased customer engagement. |
| Keywords: | electricity, gas, liberalization, energy, italy |
| JEL: | L11 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81768&r=cta |
| By: | Alex Coad (CENTRUM-Catolica Graduate Business School, Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru, Lima, Peru.) |
| Abstract: | Do firms in the same sector converge towards the same R&D intensities? Previous research has often assumed this to be true. A closer examination, using microdata from the EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard for the years 2000-2015, shows a large amount of heterogeneity in R&D intensities among firms in the same sector, and that this heterogeneity persists over time. Statistical tests of convergence show that the variation in R&D intensities does not decrease over time (i.e. no ?-convergence), although firms with an R&D intensity below the industry average do seem to catch up with the leaders (i.e. evidence of ?-convergence). Overall, firms in the same industry do not converge to a common R&D intensity. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | R&D investment, R&D intensity, convergence, benchmarking |
| JEL: | O3 L2 |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:wpaper:201704&r=cta |
| By: | Nautz, Dieter; Netsunajew, Aleksei; Strohsal, Till |
| Abstract: | We introduce structural VAR analysis as a tool for investigating the anchoring of inflation expectations. We show that U.S. consumers’ inflation expectations are anchored in the long run because macro-news shocks are long-run neutral for long-term inflation expectations. The identification of structural shocks helps to explain why inflation expectations deviate from the central bank’s target. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168075&r=cta |
| By: | Lionel DE BOISDEFFRE |
| Abstract: | We study the existence of equilibrium in a two-period production economy, where typically asymmetrically informed agents exchange securities, on incomplete financial markets, and commodities, on spot markets, whose prices are perfectly anticipated by all agents. Extending our pure-exchange existence theorems with differential information, we show that equilibria exist for an open dense set of economies, parametrized by assets' payoffs, and for all economies, whose assets are nominal or numeraire. The model covers all types of private ownerships in a same setting, that is, sole proprietorship, partnership and corporations. Consistently with competition, returns to scale can be constant or decreasing. The model is a step towards proving the existence of equilibria in stochastic production economies of the various ownership types, and, in a companion paper, the full existence of financial equilibria in two-period production economies, where perfect price foresight cannot prevail. |
| Keywords: | Sequential equilibrium, Production economies, Perfect foresight, Existence, Rational expectations, Financial markets, Asymmetric information, Arbitrage |
| JEL: | D52 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tac:wpaper:2017-2018_3&r=cta |
| By: | Veronica Serafini Geoghegan |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the national level implications of implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Paraguay. Specifically, it examines the compatibility of the SDGs with the objectives of Paraguay’s National Development Plan (NDP); the coordination, management and monitoring mechanisms available for implementing the SDGs; the political, institutional and economic challenges for achieving the SDGs; the existence of (or potential for) effective partnerships and stakeholder participation; and the capacity of government statistics agencies to monitor and report the SDG targets. The study suggests that implementing the SDGs in Paraguay will not be an easy task. The challenges range from institutional weaknesses and poor coordination capacity to inadequate financing and social accountability mechanisms. In order to optimize Paraguay’s performance to accomplish the SDGs, the government will need to improve its ability to design and implement public policies, and increase the effectiveness and efficiency of its national statistics system. It will also have to promote platforms for civil society participation and work closely with local government institutions throughout the country. In addition, it will need to put more efforts to reduce illicit financial flows, and increase foreign direct investment (FDI). |
| Keywords: | Paraguay, National Development Plan (NDP), SDG implementation challenges, civil society participation, Social Cabinet, Equipo Económico Nacional (EEN), Secretaría Técnica de Planificación del Desarrollo Económico y Social (STP) |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svo:opaper:43&r=cta |
| By: | Bullard, James B. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | St. Louis Fed President James Bullard drew on recent research from the St. Louis Fed and others to compare living standards across hundreds of metro areas in the U.S., just as living standards across countries have long been compared. He highlighted the importance of adjusting for price differences across MSAs when making such comparisons. In all, 381 MSAs in the U.S. were studied. Bullard noted that the St. Louis MSA ranked in the top 6 percent of these metro areas. This analysis may lead to other research on why some cities are more successful than others, he said. Bullard spoke at the Bi-State Development’s annual meeting, in downtown St. Louis. |
| Date: | 2017–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlps:292&r=cta |
| By: | Ansgar Belke; Jan Wagemester |
| Abstract: | We argue that, under certain conditions described by a sunk cost hysteresis model, firms consider exports as a substitute for domestic demand. This is valid also on the macroeconomic level where the switch from the domestic market to the export market and vice versa takes place in a smooth manner. Areas of weak reaction of exports to changes in domestic demand are widened by uncertainty. Our econometric model for six euro area countries suggests domestic demand and capacity constraints as additional variables for export equations. We apply the exponential and logistic variant of a smooth transition regression model and find that domestic demand developments and uncertainty are relevant for short-run export dynamics particularly during more extreme stages of the business cycle. A substitutive relationship between domestic and foreign sales can most clearly be found for France, Greece and Ireland (ESTR model) and France, Portugal and Italy (LSTAR model), providing evidence of the importance of sunk costs and hysteresis in international trade in these EMU member countries. What is more, our empirical results are robust to the inclusion of a variable measuring European policy uncertainty. In some cases (Italy, Greece and Portugal) the results underscore the empirical validity of the export hysteresis under uncertainty model. |
| Keywords: | domestic demand pressure, exports, error-correction models, hysteresis, modelling techniques, smooth-transition models, sunk costs, uncertainty |
| JEL: | F14 C22 C50 C51 F10 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6634&r=cta |
| By: | Weber, Michael |
| Abstract: | We study whether decentralizing public employment services impacts job finding positively, as is suggested by the classic decentralization theorem, or negatively, as is suggested by political economy considerations. Our difference-in-difference estimates for a German reform in 2012 point to negative effects: Decentralization decreased job finding by 10% and increased the use of inefficient job creation programs that likely reduce local but increase federal public expenditures. |
| JEL: | H11 H75 I38 J48 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168277&r=cta |
| By: | Zwick, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effect of training participation on employees’ retention. In a comparison group approach, the probability to stay at the same employer is compared between training participants and employees who could accidentally not participate at a planned training. We control endogeneity, unobserved time-invariant effects, and extensive individual/employer characteristics. High portability of general human capital contents, visibility of training, and credibility reduce retention. |
| JEL: | J62 J63 M51 M53 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168100&r=cta |
| By: | Töpfer, Marina |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate the gender pay gap along the wage distribution using a detailed decomposition approach based on unconditional quantile regressions. Non-randomness of the sample leads to biased and inconsistent estimates of the wage equation as well as of the components of the wage gap. Therefore, the method is extended to account for sample selection problems. The decomposition is conducted by using Italian microdata. Accounting for labor market selection may be particularly relevant for Italy given a comparably low female labor market participation rate. The results suggest not only differences in the income gap along the wage distribution (in particular glass ceiling), but also differences in the contribution of selection effects to the pay gap at different quantiles. |
| Keywords: | Gender Pay Gap,Detailed Decomposition,Unconditional Quantile Regression,Sample Selection |
| JEL: | J7 J13 J31 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohdps:262017&r=cta |
| By: | Alex Coad (CENTRUM Católica Graduate Business School, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, Lima, Perú); Antonio Vezzani (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Many industrialized countries in Europe and North America have experienced a steady decline in the manufacturing sector over the last few decades. Amid growing concerns that outsourcing and offshoring have destabilized European economies, policymakers have suggested that a large manufacturing sector can: i) boost R&D, ii) encourage exporting, and iii) raise productivity. We examine these claims. Non-parametric plots and regressions show a robust positive association between the manufacturing sector and Business R&D expenditures (BERD), while the relationship between manufacturing and exports or productivity is more elusive. Finally, we explore whether a manufacturing sector target of 20% of value-added will help reach a BERD target of 3% of GDP. |
| Keywords: | Manufacturing sector, R&D, exporting, productivity, industrial policy, industrial renaissance |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:wpaper:201706&r=cta |
| By: | Neira, Julian; Singhania, Rish |
| Abstract: | The business startup rate in the United States has exhibited a large secular decline in recent decades. The reasons behind the decline are not well understood. This paper hypothesizes that the startup rate declined in large part because corporate taxes raised the opportunity cost of entrepreneurship. We formalize this thesis using a model of occupational choice that features firm entry and exit. Quantitatively, the model accounts for much of the decline in the startup rate. Taxes alone account for one-fifth of the decline. Cross-sectoral patterns in US data support our results. |
| Keywords: | Firm Entry, Startups, Corporate Taxes, Declining Business Dynamism, Occupational Choice |
| JEL: | D2 E2 E6 H2 |
| Date: | 2017–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81662&r=cta |
| By: | Buiter, Willem H.; Sibert, Anne C. |
| Abstract: | There have been attempts to resurrect the fiscal theory of the price revel (FTPL). The original FTPL rests on a fundamental compounded fallacy: confusing the intertemporal budget constraint (IBC) of the State, holding with equality and with sovereign bonds priced at their contractual values, with a misspecified equilibrium nominal bond pricing equation, and the "double use" of this IBC. This fallacy generates a number of internal inconsistencies and anomalies. The issue is not an empirical one. Neither does it concern the realism of the assumptions. It is about flawed internal logic. The issue is not just of academic interest. If fiscal policy authorities were to take the FTPL seriously, costly policy accidents, including sovereign default and hyperinflation, could be the outcome. Interpreting the FTPL as an equilibrium selection mechanism in models with multiple equilibria does not help. Attempts by Sims to extend the FTPL to models with nominal price rigidities fail. The attempted resurrection of the FTPL fails. It is time to bury it again - for the last time. |
| Keywords: | fiscal theory of the price level,intertemporal budget constraint,equilibrium bond pricing equation,monetary and fiscal policy coordination,equilibrium selection,fiscal dominance |
| JEL: | E31 E40 E50 E58 E62 H62 H63 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201784&r=cta |
| By: | Daniel S.J. Lechmann; Christoph Wunder |
| Abstract: | This study examines dynamics of solo self-employment. In particular, we investigate the extent of true state dependence and cross state dependence, i.e., whether experiencing solo selfemployment causally affects the probability of becoming an employer in the future. We use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to estimate dynamic multinomial logit models. Our results show that the extent of true (cross) state dependence is rather small. The observed persistence in solo self-employment as well as transitions from solo self-employment to employership can largely be explained by observed and unobserved heterogeneity. |
| Keywords: | state dependence, dynamic multinomial logit, solo self-employment, own-account worker, stepping stone, German SOEP |
| JEL: | J23 J62 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp932&r=cta |
| By: | Taiji Furusawa; Tomohiko Inui; Keiko Ito; Heiwai Tang |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how firms’ offshoring decisions shape a country’s domestic production net- works. We develop a model in which heterogeneous firms source inputs from multiple industries located in different domestic regions and foreign countries. Input sourcing entails communication with suppliers, which is endogenously increasing in the differentiation of inputs. The model predicts that firms are less likely to source differentiated inputs, especially from distant domestic and foreign suppliers, due to costly communication. Triggered by foreign countries’ export supply shocks, firms start offshoring inputs from foreign suppliers, which displace the less productive domestic suppliers in the same industry (the direct displacement effect). The resulting decline in marginal costs induces firms to start sourcing from the more productive and distant domestic suppliers within industries (the within-industry restructuring effect), but possibly also from nearby suppliers that produce inputs that are more differentiated than those supplied by existing suppliers (the industry composition effect). The net effect of offshoring on a firm’s domestic production networks depends on the relative strength of the three effects, which we verify using data for 4.5 million buyer-seller links in Japan. Based on a firm-level instrument, we find that after offshoring, firms are less likely to drop suppliers on average, but more so for the larger ones. They tend to add nearby suppliers producing differentiated inputs. These results suggest that firms.offshoring may increase the spatial concentration of domestic production networks. |
| Keywords: | production networks, global sourcing, offshoring, face-to-face communication, industry agglomeration |
| JEL: | D22 D85 F14 L10 L14 R12 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6658&r=cta |
| By: | Orazbayev, Sultan |
| Abstract: | This document describes the data available through RePEc and related services: CitEc, CollEc, EDIRC, IDEAS, Genealogy and EconPapers. The document is purely descriptive, and is intended as a guide to some of the data available through RePEc on authors, institutions, collaborations, and networks. |
| Keywords: | RePEc; economists; bibliometrics |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2017–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81963&r=cta |
| By: | Haraguchi, Junichi; Matsumura, Toshihiro; Yoshida, Shohei |
| Abstract: | We formulate a mixed oligopoly model in which one state-owned public enterprise competes with n private firms in the same market and m private firms in the neighboring market. We investigate how n and m affect the optimal degree of privatization. We find a nonmonotone (monotone) relationship between the optimal degree of privatization and the number of private competitors in the neighboring (same) market. The optimal degree of privatization is increasing in the number of private firms in the same market, and the relationship between the optimal degree of privatization and the number of private competitors in the neighboring market is an inverted U-shape. An increase in m more likely increases the optimal degree of privatization when the degree of product differentiation is low. Our results suggest that more competitive pressure from competitors supplying differentiated products can reduce the optimal degree of privatization. |
| Keywords: | market competitiveness, partial privatization, number of private firms |
| JEL: | H44 L33 L44 |
| Date: | 2017–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81978&r=cta |
| By: | R. S., Gopalan; M., Ravibabu; Sahu, Sasmita |
| Abstract: | Costing of railway systems is complicated due to a large proportion of sunk and joint costs. Indian Railways (IR) currently estimates costs at the zonal level by first segregating the direct costs, i.e. costs which can be assigned to a service, and joint costs, i.e. costs which are incurred jointly for more than one service. While the direct costs are assigned to the service, the joint costs are assigned based on ratios worked out for assigning costs between various services. Compared to the method in vogue, the paper proposes and demonstrates a disaggregated approach for developing costs. Unlike the current approach, the proposed approach develops expenses and performance measures at the activity centre level, i.e. at division, shed, and workshop level. The disaggregated data is used to build statistical models relating expenditure to outputs. The paper also shows how the approach can help in i) separating variable and fixed costs ii) developing costs as per sectional characteristics, iii) comparing and benchmarking performance of entities and finally iv) how the process can be automated. The paper also shows how the work could be useful for the accounts reforms project of IR and to the Rail Development Authority in fulfilling some of its objectives. |
| Keywords: | Railway costing, statistical models, Indian Railways |
| JEL: | R48 |
| Date: | 2017–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81947&r=cta |
| By: | Kristopher J. Hult |
| Abstract: | Individuals respond to pharmaceutical treatments differently due to the heterogeneity of patient populations. This heterogeneity can make it difficult to determine how efficacious or burdensome a treatment is for an individual patient. Personalized medicine involves using patient characteristics, therapeutics, or diagnostic testing to understand how individual patients respond to a given treatment. Personalized medicine increases the health impact of existing treatments by improving the matching process between patients and treatments and by improving a patient's understanding of the risk of serious side effects. In this paper, I compare the health impact of new treatment innovations with the potential health impact of personalized medicine. I find that the impact of personalized medicine depends on the number of treatments, the correlation between treatment effects, and the amount of noise in a patient's individual treatment effect signal. For multiple sclerosis treatments, I find that personalized medicine has the potential to increase the health impact of existing treatments by roughly 50 percent by informing patients of their individual treatment effect and risk of serious side effects. |
| JEL: | I1 I10 I11 O3 O31 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23900&r=cta |
| By: | Busse, Matthias; Erdogan, Ceren; Mühlen, Henning |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyse the role of structural transformation in view of the remarkable growth performance of sub-Saharan African countries since the mid-1990s. Our analysis covers 41 African countries over the period 1980 to 2014 and accounts for structural transformation by employing the analytical frameworks of (1) growth decomposition and (2) growth regression. Even though the low-productive agricultural sector continues to employ most of the African workforce, our results reveal that structural transformation has taken place and that it has contributed significantly to African growth in the past decades. |
| Keywords: | Sub-Saharan Africa,structural transformation,economic growth,growth regressions,dualistic approach |
| JEL: | O11 O13 O47 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohdps:232017&r=cta |
| By: | Heywood, John S.; Jirjahn, Uwe; Pfister, Annika |
| Abstract: | Using German establishment data, this paper examines the relationship between product market competition and the extent of employer provided training. We demonstrate that high product market competition is associated with increased training except when the competition is so severe as to threaten liquidation to a firm. We take this as evidence of an inverted U-shaped relationship. We also make clear that while this relationship is very evident for the service sector it is largely missing for manufacturing where we confirm earlier results of no relationship. |
| Keywords: | Competition,Employer Provided Training,Manufacturing,Services |
| JEL: | J24 L00 M53 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:122&r=cta |
| By: | Dakshina Garfield De Silva; Marina Gertsberg; Georgia Kosmopoulou; Rachel Pownall |
| Abstract: | We apply network theory to study auction outcomes in the fine art market. Using a unique historical data set, of London-based art auctions that took place between 1741 and 1913, we investigate the drivers of strategic network formation between dealers (buyers) and sellers and the effect of network structure on artwork prices and market exit. The network size and similarities in art specialization between trading partners strongly influence the decision to form links. A larger network and a higher degree of specialization exacerbate informational asymmetries across buyers leading to higher rents through lower prices and facilitate longer market presence. |
| Keywords: | Auctions, Art Dealers, Networks |
| JEL: | D44 D82 L14 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lan:wpaper:198144199&r=cta |
| By: | Liebert, Helge; Mäder, Beatrice |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of changes in the physician coverage ratio on infant and disease mortality, utilizing historical data from Germany. The results indicate substantial health effects. One additional physician per 1,000 of population reduces infant mortality by 23%. We find similar negative effects for a variety of common diseases and stillbirths. Using a semiparametric control function approach, we demonstrate that the marginal returns to coverage are nonlinear and decreasing. |
| JEL: | I10 I18 N34 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168103&r=cta |
| By: | Stefania Bortolotti; Ivan Soraperra; Matthias Sutter; Claudia Zoller |
| Abstract: | The steady increase in inequality over the past decades has revived a lively debate about what can be considered a fair distribution of income. Public support for the extent of redistribution typically depends on the perceived causes of income inequality, such as differences in effort, luck, or opportunities. We study how fairness views and the extent of redistribution are affected by a hitherto overlooked, but relevant factor: immoral self-serving behavior that can lead to increased inequality. We focus on situations in which the rich have potentially acquired their fortunes by means of cheating. In an experiment, we let third parties redistribute resources between two stakeholders who could earn money either by choosing a safe amount or by engaging in a risky, but potentially more profitable, investment. In one treatment, the outcome of the risky investment is determined by a random move, while in another treatment stakeholders can cheat to obtain the more profitable outcome. Although third parties cannot verify cheating, we find that the mere suspicion of cheating changes fairness views of third parties considerably and leads to a strong polarization. When cheating opportunities are present, the share of subjects redistributing money from rich to poor stakeholders triples and becomes as large as the fraction of libertarians - i.e., participants who never redistribute. Without cheating opportunities, libertarian fairness views dominate, while egalitarian views are much less prevalent. These results indicate that fairness views and attitudes towards redistribution change significantly when people believe that income inequality is the result of cheating by the rich. |
| Keywords: | fairness views, redistribution, unethical behavior, inequality, experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D63 D81 H26 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6563&r=cta |
| By: | Lusardi, Annamaria; Mitchell, Olivia S.; Oggero, Noemi |
| Abstract: | We analyze older individuals' debt and financial vulnerability using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the National Financial Capability Study (NFCS). Specifically, in the HRS we examine three different cohorts (individuals age 56-61) in 1992, 2004, and 2010 to evaluate cross-cohort changes in debt over time. We also use two waves of the NFCS (2012 and 2015) to gain additional insights into debt management and older individuals' capacity to shield themselves against shocks. We show that recent cohorts have taken on more debt and face more financial insecurity, mostly due to having purchased more expensive homes with smaller down payments. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:574&r=cta |
| By: | Bagues, Manuel F. (Aalto University); Sylos-Labini, Mauro (University of Pisa); Zinovyeva, Natalia (Aalto University) |
| Abstract: | In recent years the academic world has experienced a mushrooming of journals that falsely pretend to be legitimate academic outlets. We study this phenomenon using information from 46,000 researchers seeking promotion in Italian academia. About 5% of them have published in journals included in the blacklist of 'potential, possible, or probable predatory journals' elaborated by the scholarly librarian Jeffrey Beall. Data from a survey that we conducted among these researchers confirms that at least one third of these journals do not provide peer review or they engage in some other type of irregular editorial practice. We identify two factors that may have spurred publications in dubious journals. First, some of these journals have managed to be included in citation indexes such as Scopus that many institutions consider as a guarantee of quality. Second, we show that authors who publish in these journals are more likely to receive a positive evaluation when (randomly selected) scientific evaluators lack research expertise. Overall, our analysis suggests that the proliferation of 'predatory' journals may reflect the existence of severe information asymmetries in scientific evaluations. |
| Keywords: | scientific misconduct, academic evaluations |
| JEL: | I23 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11041&r=cta |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | 'Ordonomics' is a research program that has been developed at the Chair of Economic Ethics at Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg. It holds that business actors (persons and organizations) can employ morality as a 'factor of production', and that business ethics can be based on a specific rational-choice analysis that is fully in line with the established tradition of economic thinking. With regard to practice, the main point is that ordonomics offers a guiding concept for creating win-win solutions that help business firms to do well by doing good. With regard to theory, ordonomics offers a conceptual framework for business ethics that makes ethics and economics coherent and mutually compatible with each other. |
| Keywords: | ordonomics,business ethics,corporate social responsibility,corporate citi-zenship,rational choice,social dilemma,governance |
| JEL: | A12 D02 D21 D23 D62 L14 L21 M14 P12 Y80 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201705&r=cta |
| By: | Vorobyev, Oleg Yu. |
| Abstract: | We introduce the set-theoretic language for the element-set labelling a Cartesian product by measurable binary relations intended for the labelling, or for the naming of parts and details of the construction that we are going to propose in the theory of experience and chance, or the theory of co~events that serve as mathematical models of events as dual pairs. |
| Keywords: | Eventology, theory of experience and chance, theory of co~events, measurable binary relation, event, co~event, experience, chance. |
| JEL: | C0 C02 C60 C65 Z1 Z10 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81891&r=cta |
| By: | Belke, Ansgar; Dubova, Irina |
| Abstract: | The paper estimates the financial transmission between bond and equity markets within and between across the four largest global financial markets - the United States, the Euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom. In a globalized world, where the complex transmission process across various financial assets is not restricted to just domestic market, we argue that international bond and equity markets are highly interconnected both within and across asset classes. |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F42 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168087&r=cta |
| By: | Jakob Medick; Isabel Teichmann; Claudia Kemfert |
| Abstract: | Based on a life-cycle sustainability assessment and the calculation of carbon abatement costs, we quantify the greenhouse-gas emission reductions and costs if green waste in the metropolitan region of Berlin, Germany, is diverted from composting into the production of hydrothermally carbonized coal (HTC coal) that is used as a substitute for hard coal in the generation of electricity and heat. Depending on the geographical origin of the green waste, we specify an urban scenario, a rural-urban scenario, and a rural scenario. Approximately 302 kilogram (kg) of carbon-dioxide equivalents (CO2e) can be saved per megagram (Mg) of fresh-matter (FM) input in the urban scenario, 298 kg CO2e/Mg FM input in the rural-urban scenario, and 316 kg CO2e/Mg FM input in the rural scenario. All three scenarios combined can mitigate a total of 70,511 Mg CO2e per year. This corresponds to about 1.6% of Berlin’s annual greenhouse-gas reduction targets overthe 2005-2020 period. If only private costs are considered, the HTC scenarios are less profitable than their reference cases. However, the inclusion of emissionrelated damage costs has the potential to render them socially preferable. The respective thresholds for social desirability coincide with the carbon abatement costs, about 163 €/Mg CO2e in the urban scenario, 74 €/Mg CO2e in the rural-urban scenario, and 75 €/Mg CO2e in the rural scenario. The lower abatement costs in the latter two scenarios are due to HTC-coal co-firing in an existing power plant rather than mono-firing it in a newly built biomass power plant. This shows that a comparatively favorable use of HTC coal might be as a bridging technology. |
| Keywords: | Hydrothermal carbonization, char, biocoal, climate change, renewable energy, biomass, waste management, life cycle |
| JEL: | Q42 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1690&r=cta |
| By: | Roberto Bonilla; Alberto Trejos |
| Abstract: | The empirical literature addressing links between the labor and the marriage markets is numerous and varied. Despite this, the theoretical (equilibrium) literature that explicitly links the two markets is less developed, particularly so with frictional markets. We build an equilibrium search model where married couples make joint decisions on home production and labor market participation. We then analyze the implications of our results for a frictional marriage market allowing us to consider the interaction between both markets. A worker´s bargaining position reflects their own productivity, and also the employment status and conditions of their spouse. We find that couples with very different productivities have different strategies regarding labor market participation. In symmetric couples, the partners behave symmetrically. Workers get better job offers when their spouses are employed, and in some equilibria a person may search for transitory jobs with the sole purpose of raising the long-term wages of their spouse. In some cases, firms unilaterally increase a worker’s wage in order to reduce turnover, by ensuring that the spouse stays at home. Whether firms follow that strategy or not may be a matter of multiple equilibria, depending on parameter values. All this provides an additional explanation for wage and search behavior heterogeneity of similar workers and/or couples. |
| Keywords: | labour market participation, wage formation, marriage market, linked frictional markets |
| JEL: | D13 J12 J22 J31 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6543&r=cta |
| By: | Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle; Opitz, Alexander |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we provide the first overview over all political connections for all firms listed on the Berlin stock exchange in 1924 and for the same sample of firms four years later. In contrast to anecdotal evidence which suggest that these political connections had a positive effect on firms' performance, an event study based on the election in December 1924 and May 1928 shows only little evidence that political connections had a positive impact on firm value. These results complement previous research emphasizing that political connections might have mattered less in democracies. Indeed, this seems true for Germany's first democracy - even though it was a very unstable one. |
| Keywords: | Political Connections,Interwar Germany,Stock Market Performance |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohdps:242017&r=cta |
| By: | Stanislaus Maier-Paape; Qiji Jim Zhu |
| Abstract: | Utility and risk are two often competing measurements on the investment success. We show that efficient trade-off between these two measurements for investment portfolios happens, in general, on a convex curve in the two dimensional space of utility and risk. This is a rather general pattern. The modern portfolio theory of Markowitz [H. Markowitz, Portfolio Selection, 1959] and its natural generalization, the capital market pricing model, [W. F. Sharpe, Mutual fund performance , 1966] are special cases of our general framework when the risk measure is taken to be the standard deviation and the utility function is the identity mapping. Using our general framework, we also recover the results in [R. T. Rockafellar, S. Uryasev and M. Zabarankin, Master funds in portfolio analysis with general deviation measures, 2006] that extends the capital market pricing model to allow for the use of more general deviation measures. This generalized capital asset pricing model also applies to e.g. when an approximation of the maximum drawdown is considered as a risk measure. Furthermore, the consideration of a general utility function allows to go beyond the "additive" performance measure to a "multiplicative" one of cumulative returns by using the log utility. As a result, the growth optimal portfolio theory [J. Lintner, The valuation of risk assets and the selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets, 1965] and the leverage space portfolio theory [R. Vince, The Leverage Space Trading Model, 2009] can also be understood under our general framework. Thus, this general framework allows a unification of several important existing portfolio theories and goes much beyond. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.04579&r=cta |
| By: | Asjad NAQVI (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria); Engelbert STOCKHAMMER (Kingston University Dept. of Economics Penrhyn Road Kingston upon Thames Surrey KT1 2EE UK) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a post-Keynesian ecological macro model that combines three strands of literature: the directed technological change mechanism developed in mainstream endogenous growth theory models, the ecological economic literature which highlights the role of green innovation and material flows, and the post-Keynesian school which provides a framework to deal with the demand side of the economy, financial flows, and inter- and intra-sectoral behavioral interactions. The model is stock-flow consistent and introduces research and development (R&D) as a component of GDP funded by private rm investment and public expenditure. The economy uses three complimentary inputs - Labor, Capital, and (non-renewable) Resources. Input productivities depend on R&D expenditures, which are determined by relative changes in their respective prices. Two policy experiments are tested; a Resource tax increase, and an increase in the share of public R&D on Resources. Model results show that policy instruments that are continually increased over a long-time horizon have better chances of achieving a "green" transition than one-off climate policy shocks to the system, that primarily have a short-run affect. |
| Keywords: | directed technological change, research and development, green transition, ecological economics,post- keynesian ecomomics, stock-flow consistency |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwiee:ieep16&r=cta |
| By: | Andersson, Martin (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Rohne Till, Emelie (Department of Economic History, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Over the last decade, attention to agricultural development in less developed countries has increased. However, two opposing views on its role in economic development exist within the scholarly debate, either as a potential engine for economic growth or as a fifth wheel unlikely to generate transformative growth. Taking these contrary opinions as a point of departure, this paper reviews the origins of prominent views of the role of agriculture in development theory. Next it bibliometrically assesses the pattern of fluctuating scholarly attention to agriculture, and attempts to understand the reasons behind this pattern. The paper identifies four influential views on agriculture in development theory; five distinct phases of ups and downs in the scholarly attention to agriculture and discusses five potential reasons behind these fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; economic development; development theory; bibliometric analysis |
| JEL: | N50 O13 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2017–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0163&r=cta |
| By: | Repetto, Luca (Department of Economics); Solis, Alex (Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Do behavioral biases affect prices in a high-stake market? We study the role of left-digit bias in the purchase of an apartment, one of the most important assets in a household’s portfolio. Left-digit bias is the inability to fully process digits after the first, perceiving prices just below a round number (such as $3.99) as cheaper than their round counterpart ($4). We start by documenting that apartments listed at just-below asking prices are sold at a 3-5% higher final price after an auction. This effect appears not to be driven by i) differences in observable characteristics; ii) differences in real estate agents’behavior; or iii) institutional characteristics of the market. We show that apartments using just-below prices attract more bidders and bids, leading to higher competition and to a higher final price. Our results suggest that inattentive buyers might be losing roughly half a year of disposable income. |
| Keywords: | Housing market; auctions; inattention; first-digit bias |
| JEL: | C78 D44 D83 R31 |
| Date: | 2017–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2017_010&r=cta |
| By: | Horstmann, Elaine; Blankenberg, Ann-Kathrin; Schneider, Tim |
| Abstract: | A lot of economic and social situations can be described as contests in which agents need to distribute scare resources. Individual behavior plays an important role within these situations, while identity strongly impacts on behavior. This paper asks how group identity impacts the provision of a public good in a contest situation with different prize sharing rules. We show that group identity significantly increases contributions. Moreover, it turns out that identity affects how subjects react to different prize sharing rules. Our findings contribute to an increased understanding of the nature of group identity and its impact on economic behavior. |
| Keywords: | group identity,contest,public goods game,multi-level interaction,experiment |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:324&r=cta |
| By: | Luca Marcolin (OECD); Mariagrazia Squicciarini (OECD) |
| Abstract: | This paper synthesises the main policy implications of OECD work focusing on the interplay between participation and positioning in global value chains (GVCs), employment demand and supply and workforce’s skills endowment. They relate to: the way innovation, technology and participation in GVCs shape employment in routine intensive and non-routine jobs; the relationship between participation in GVCs and polarisation of employment; the way the skill composition of a country’s workforce – both the type of skills and their distribution – shapes specialisation and positioning along GVCs; and the complementarities emerging between GVC participation and investment in knowledge-based capital, especially organisational capital and ICT. |
| Date: | 2017–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaac:44-en&r=cta |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | Una de las características más sobresalientes del desarrollo de América Latina y el Caribe en el siglo pasado, fue la transición desde patrones de producción, distribución y consumo asociados al mundo rural y agrícola hacia otros vinculados con el desarrollo industrial y los servicios. Esto significó la consolidación del carácter urbano de la región. Las concentraciones urbanas son la base de crecientes aumentos en la productividad del capital y el trabajo; para mayores grados de especialización y de diversificación económico-productiva. Son el lugar donde se generan las mayores economías de escala y de aglomeración, elementos claves en el crecimiento y desarrollo sostenible de los países de la región. A su vez, son el lugar donde se expresan las externalidades negativas del proceso de urbanización: desigualdad, pobreza, y carencias en general. La ciudad sintetiza las formas de crecimiento desigual que se manifiestan en segregación, segmentación y exclusión social. Es importante considerar el aumento en la vulnerabilidad ambiental y las condiciones de riesgo en las ciudades. Esta situación profundiza la desigualdad y la exclusión; los costos de los impactos se distribuyen en forma inequitativa. Esta publicación busca entonces relevar, en el contexto de la implementación de la Nueva Agenda Urbana en América Latina y el Caribe, un análisis estructuralista para una propuesta urbano-territorial como una opción para un desarrollo urbano territorial, inclusivo y sostenible. |
| Keywords: | URBANIZACION, DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, CIUDADES, DESARROLLO URBANO, ASPECTOS SOCIALES, IGUALDAD, DESARROLLO SOCIAL, DINAMICA DE LA POBLACION, MIGRACION INTERNA, SEGREGACION, POBREZA, DISTRIBUCION DEL INGRESO, PROBLEMAS SOCIALES, IGUALDAD DE GENERO, DERECHOS DE LA MUJER, PLANIFICACION URBANA, POLITICA URBANA, CALIDAD DE LA VIDA, POLITICA SOCIAL, PROGRAMAS DE ACCION, DATOS ESTADISTICOS, INDICADORES ECONOMICOS, INDICADORES SOCIALES, AGENDA 2030 PARA EL DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, ASPECTOS DEMOGRAFICOS, URBANIZATION, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, CITIES, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL ASPECTS, EQUALITY, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, POPULATION ASPECTS, POPULATION DYNAMICS, INTERNAL MIGRATION, SEGREGATION, POVERTY, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, SOCIAL PROBLEMS, GENDER EQUALITY, WOMEN'S RIGHTS, URBAN PLANNING, URBAN POLICY, QUALITY OF LIFE, SOCIAL POLICY, PROGRAMMES OF ACTION, STATISTICAL DATA, ECONOMIC INDICATORS, SOCIAL INDICATORS, 2030 AGENDA FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:42141&r=cta |
| By: | Maximilian Goedl (University of Graz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between government debt default, the banking sector and the wider economy. It builds a model of the public bond market, the banking sector and the real economy to study the mechanism by which a government default affects the other sectors and shows that this model can explain some "stylized facts" of the Eurozone crisis. The key aspect of the model is a friction in the financial market which forces banks to hold part of their assets in the form of government bonds. In such a model, an exogenous increase in the probability of default can lead to the joint occurrence of a credit crunch (i.e. declining bank lending and rising spreads between loan interest rates and deposit rates) and a decline in output. The paper also shows that an adverse technology shock (an exogenous decline in total factor productivity) cannot fully explain these phenomena. |
| Keywords: | Government default; Financial frictions; Business cycle model |
| JEL: | E37 E44 H63 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2017-10&r=cta |
| By: | Justin Sirignano; Konstantinos Spiliopoulos |
| Abstract: | Stochastic gradient descent in continuous time (SGDCT) provides a computationally efficient method for the statistical learning of continuous-time models, which are widely used in science, engineering, and finance. The SGDCT algorithm follows a (noisy) descent direction along a continuous stream of data. The parameter updates occur in continuous time and satisfy a stochastic differential equation. This paper analyzes the asymptotic convergence rate of the SGDCT algorithm by proving a central limit theorem for strongly convex objective functions and, under slightly stronger conditions, for non-convex objective functions as well. An L$^p$ convergence rate is also proven for the algorithm in the strongly convex case. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.04273&r=cta |
| By: | Svetlozar Rachev; Stoyan Stoyanov; Stefan Mittnik; Frank J. Fabozzi |
| Abstract: | In this paper we address three main objections of behavioral finance to the theory of rational finance, considered as anomalies the theory of rational finance cannot explain: Predictability of asset returns, The Equity Premium, (The Volatility Puzzle. We offer resolutions of those objections within the rational finance. We do not claim that those are the only possible explanations of the anomalies, but offer statistical models within the rational theory of finance which can be used without relying on behavioral finance assumptions when searching for explanations of those anomalies. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.03211&r=cta |
| By: | Guillaume A. Khayat (Aix-Marseille Univ. (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS, EHESS and Centrale Marseille) |
| Abstract: | Credit institutions borrow liquidity from the central bank’s lending facility and deposit (excess) reserves at its deposit facility. The central bank directly controls the corridor: the non-market interest rates of its lending and deposit facilities. Modifying the corridor changes the conditions on the interbank market and allows the central bank to set the short-term interest rate in the economy. This paper assesses the use of the corridor’s width as an additional tool for monetary policy. Results indicate that a symmetric widening of the corridor boosts output and welfare while addressing the central bank’s concerns over higher risk-taking in the economy. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, interbank market, heterogeneous interbank frictions, the corridor, excess reserves, financial intermediation |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E44 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1735&r=cta |
| By: | Hakenes, Hendrik; Schiephake, Eva |
| Abstract: | The fragility of financial institutions to panic runs depends on their liquidity base: the short term funds available to banks for investment regardless of the withdrawal option available to customers. Institutions that are able to offer higher yield curves are able to lure the liquidity base away from their competitors. Using the standard global games approach, we show that banks that attract a high liquidity base are less prone to panic runs, but the stability of the residual banks decreases. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 H23 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168300&r=cta |
| By: | Mburu, Samuel; Kaiser, Micha; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso |
| Abstract: | Understanding household-level asset dynamics has important implications for designing relevant poverty reduction policies. To advance this understanding, we develop a microeconomic model to analyze the impact of a shock (for example a drought) on the behavioral decisions of pastoralists in Northern Kenya. Using household panel data this study then explores the livestock asset dynamics using both non-parametric and semi-parametric techniques to establish the shape of the asset accumulation path and to determine whether multiple equilibria exist. More specifically, using tropical livestock units as a measure of livestock accumulation over time, we show not only that these assets converge to a single equilibrium but that forage availability and herd diversity play a major role in such livestock accumulation. |
| Keywords: | poverty dynamics,pastoralists,livestock,semi-parametric estimation,Kenya |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohdps:252017&r=cta |
| By: | Raymond Fisman; Keith Gladstone; Ilyana Kuziemko; Suresh Naidu |
| Abstract: | A vast theoretical literature in public finance has studied the question of the desirability of capital taxation. Distinct from questions of the optimality of taxing wealth is whether it is politically feasible. We provide, to our knowledge, the first investigation of individuals' preferences over jointly taxing income and wealth, via a survey on Amazon's Mechanical Turk. We provide subjects with a set of hypothetical individuals' incomes and wealth and elicit subjects' preferred (absolute) tax bill for these individuals. Our method allows us to unobtrusively map both income earned and accumulated wealth into desired tax levels. Our regression results yield roughly linear desired tax rates on income of about 14 percent. Respondents' suggested tax rates indicate positive desired wealth taxation. When we distinguish between sources of wealth we find that, in line with recent theoretical arguments, subjects' implied tax rate on wealth is three percent when the source of wealth is inheritance, far higher than the 0.8 percent rate when wealth is from savings. We show these tax rates are consistent with reasonable parameterizations of recent theoretical optimal wealth tax formulae. |
| JEL: | D6 D7 E22 H21 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23907&r=cta |
| By: | Creedy, John; Gemmell, Norman |
| Abstract: | This paper explores poverty income dynamics in the form of income mobility by the poor and poverty persistence, making use of simple diagrams. It seeks to illustrate (a) the extent to which income mobility is pro-poor; and (b) when mobility is associated with persistence below, or movement across, a povery line over a specified time period. While statistical measures can be used to examine detailed characteristics of income dynamics, two simple diagrams are shown to capture the extent of pro-poor mobility and poverty persistence respectively in ways that allow convenient comparisons. These are referred to as a ‘three I’s of mobility’ (or TIM) curve, and a ‘poverty persistence curve’, The curves are illustrated using anonymised Inland Revenue longitudinal individual income data for New Zealand over 2006-10. |
| Keywords: | TIM curve, Income dynamics, Income mobility, Poverty, New Zealand, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcpf:6694&r=cta |
| By: | Kaifeng Zhao; Seyed Hanif Mahboobi; Saeed Bagheri |
| Abstract: | This paper examines and proposes several attribution modeling methods that quantify how revenue should be attributed to online advertising inputs. We adopt and further develop relative importance method, which is based on regression models that have been extensively studied and utilized to investigate the relationship between advertising efforts and market reaction (revenue). Relative importance method aims at decomposing and allocating marginal contributions to the coefficient of determination (R^2) of regression models as attribution values. In particular, we adopt two alternative submethods to perform this decomposition: dominance analysis and relative weight analysis. Moreover, we demonstrate an extension of the decomposition methods from standard linear model to additive model. We claim that our new approaches are more flexible and accurate in modeling the underlying relationship and calculating the attribution values. We use simulation examples to demonstrate the superior performance of our new approaches over traditional methods. We further illustrate the value of our proposed approaches using a real advertising campaign dataset. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.06561&r=cta |
| By: | Grüning, Patrick |
| Abstract: | Empirical evidence suggests that investments in research and development (R&D) by older and larger firms are more spread out internationally than R&D investments by younger and smaller firms. In this paper, I explore the quantitative implications of this type of heterogeneity by assuming that incumbents, i.e. current monopolists engaging in incremental innovation, have a higher degree of internationalization in their R&D technologies than entrants, i.e. new firms engaging in radical innovation, in a two-country endogenous growth general equilibrium model. In particular, this assumption allows the model to break the perfect correlation between incumbents' and entrants' innovation probabilities and to match the empirical counterpart exactly. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous innovation,Technology spillover,Endogenous growth,Creative destruction,International finance |
| JEL: | E22 F31 G12 O30 O41 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:185&r=cta |
| By: | Mamoon, Dawood |
| Abstract: | Challenging economic theory that is developed at micro level is a common practice among macro-economic behaviors of conventional economic system. In this context the paper analyses Islamic banking that tries to bring an interest free financial system. The paper explains the circumstances that may lead to a universal application of Islamic banking in Pakistan. This is done after presenting a detailed discussion on the rational for conventional banking. |
| Keywords: | Islamic Banking, Capitalism, Islamic Economics, Interest Rates |
| JEL: | B2 B26 B3 |
| Date: | 2017–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81960&r=cta |
| By: | Gil-Alana, Luis A. (University of Navarra); Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin (Gazi University); Tansel, Aysit (Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we have examined the unemployment rate series in Turkey by using long memory models and in particular employing fractionally integrated techniques. Our results suggest that unemployment in Turkey is highly persistent, with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1 in most cases. This implies lack of mean reversion and permanence of the shocks. We found evidence in favor of mean reversion in the case of female unemployment and this happens for all the groups of non-agricultural, rural, urban and youth unemployment series. The possibility of non-linearities are observed only in the case of female unemployment and the degree of persistence is higher in the cases of female and youth unemployment series. Important policy implications emerge from our empirical results. Labor and macroeconomic policies will most likely have long lasting effects on the unemployment rates. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, hysteresis, NAIRU, fractional integration, Turkey |
| JEL: | C22 E24 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11053&r=cta |
| By: | Gil-Alana, Luis A.; Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin; Tansel, Aysit |
| Abstract: | In this paper we have examined the unemployment rate series in Turkey by using long memory models and in particular employing fractionally integrated techniques. Our results suggest that unemployment in Turkey is highly persistent, with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1 in most cases. This implies lack of mean reversion and permanence of the shocks. We found evidence in favor of mean reversion in the case of female unemployment and this happens for all the groups of non-agricultural, rural, urban and youth unemployment series. The possibility of non-linearities are observed only in the case of female unemployment and the degree of persistence is higher in the cases of female and youth unemployment series. Important policy implications emerge from our empirical results. Labor and macroeconomic policies will most likely have long lasting effects on the unemployment rates. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment,hysteresis,NAIRU,fractional integration,Turkey |
| JEL: | C22 E24 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:123&r=cta |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | The 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals present a unique opportunity to promote new instruments and innovative mechanisms for financing social and production development in Latin America and the Caribbean. “Green bonds” are an example of alternative financial instruments becoming increasingly available to investors. This report examines the growing green bond market, with emphasis on Latin America and the Caribbean. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col896:42230&r=cta |
| By: | Anders Bredahl Kock; Martin Thyrsgaard |
| Abstract: | In a treatment allocation problem the individuals to be treated often arrive gradually. Initially, when the first treatments are made, little is known about the effect of the treatments but as more treatments are assigned the policy maker learns about their effects by observing outcomes. Thus, there is a tradeoff between exploring the available treatments to learn about their merits and exploiting the best treatment, i.e. administering it as often as possible, in order to maximise the cumulative welfare of all the assignments made. Furthermore, a policy maker may not only be interested in the expected effect of the treatment but also its riskiness. Thus, we allow the welfare function to depend on the first and second moments of the distribution of treatment outcomes. We propose a dynamic treatment policy which attains the minimax optimal regret relative to the unknown best treatment in this dynamic setting. We allow for the data to arrive in batches as, say, unemployment programs only start once a month or blood samples are only send to the laboratory for investigation in batches. Furthermore, we show that the minimax optimality does not come at the price of overly aggressive experimentation as we provide upper bounds on the expected number of times any suboptimal treatment is assigned. We also consider the case where the outcome of a treatment is only observed with delay as it may take time for the treatment to work. Thus, a doctor faces a tradeoff between getting imprecise information quickly by making the measurement soon after the treatment is given or getting precise information later at the expense of less information for the individuals who are treated in the meantime. Finally, using Danish register data, we show how our treatment policy can be used to assign unemployed to active labor market policy programs in order to maximise the probability of ending the unemployment spell. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1705.09952&r=cta |
| By: | Malikah Jacobs |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the extent and implications of the public-private sector wage differential prevalent amongst the Black South African populace. In this paper we quantify the public sector wage premium, examine the impact of the wage premium on the incidence of household poverty, and perform a robustness analysis to determine whether the poverty effect of the wage premium varies by household type. Our results suggest that a public sector wage premium of approximately 30% exists for Black formal-sector employees, that the wage premium dampens the incidence of household poverty among Black South Africans, and that Black females are more handsomely rewarded as state employees than Black males are. |
| Keywords: | Black South Africans, public sector, private sector, wage differential, wage premium |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:711&r=cta |
| By: | Line Louah; Marjolein Visser; Alice Blaimont; Charles De Cannière |
| Abstract: | Agroforestry (AF) is promoted as an environmentally sound farming practice to address the pressing challenges of meeting a rising global demand for agricultural commodities while conserving biodiversity. Although AF played an important role in European farming in the past, reintroducing the planting of trees in fields is a radical innovation in the modern context, and is, initially, a researcher's idea. This paper investigates stakeholders’ perspectives on modern AF in two contrasting sub-regions of southern Belgium (Wallonia). Using Q methodology to identify patterns of subjectivity, we found that the conversation splits into three idealised-types of discourse that reflect different farming styles. Only one of the three discourses is in favour of AF. The results indicate that the paradigm type (holism vs. reductionism) underlying each discourse is a major factor that influences stakeholders’ position on AF. The main barriers hampering mainstreaming of AF seem cognitive in nature, and are related to the level of ecological knowledge. By exploring the ‘cognitive unlocking process’, our Q methodological study led to the identification of two readily available strategies to scale up AF: (1) ecological education and (2) social learning within multi-actor innovation networks. Such networks could foster on-farm innovation development and research, in which the farmer is an expert at the same level as the researcher. While this study focuses on the development of AF, the findings could be extrapolated to other agroecological innovations. |
| Keywords: | Agroecology; Agroforestry; Qmethodology; Stakeholder perception |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/258841&r=cta |
| By: | Debapriya Bhattacharya |
| Abstract: | Inadequate regional provisions have been one of the weak links in the global monitoring of, and accountability for, implementation of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). As a result, the question now is how does the regional monitoring and review process need to improve as a more demanding post-2015 development agenda is introduced? To address this question, the paper follows three analytical approaches. First, by reviewing various global-level inputs channelled towards articulating the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it teases out the implications of the new agenda for a Regional Monitoring and Review Mechanism (RMRM). Second, by revisiting the experiences of various existing frameworks for a regional mechanism, it highlights the strengths and weaknesses of their varying approaches and instruments. Third, the paper tries to identify the critical attributes of the institutional structure and modalities that have to characterise such a mechanism in the new context. In conclusion, the paper underscores the need to bolster regional statistical capacity, particularly in the field of regional public goods and the proposed regional indicators of the sustainable development goals. It also proposes elements of a possible mechanism, building on the existing practices of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). |
| Keywords: | SDG implementation, Regional Monitoring and Review Mechanism (RMRM), statistical capacity |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svo:opaper:28&r=cta |
| By: | Wolfgang Kerber (University of Marburg) |
| Abstract: | The digital revolution has reinvigorated the discussion about the problem how to consider innovation in the application of competition law. This raises difficult questions about the relationship between competition and innovation as well as what kind of assessment concepts competition authorities should use for investigating innovation effects, e.g., in merger cases. This paper, on one hand, reviews briefly our economic knowledge about competition and innovation, and claims that it is necessary to go beyond the limited insights that can be gained from industrial economics research about innovation (Schumpeter vs. Arrow discussion), and take into account much more insights from innovation research, evolutionary innovation economics, and business and management studies. On the other hand, it is also necessary to develop much more innovation-specific assessment concepts in competition law (beyond the traditional product market concept). Using the example of assessing innovation competition in merger cases, this article suggests to analyze much more systematically the resources (specialized assets) that are necessary for innovation. This concept is directly linked to the new discussion about the Dow/DuPont case in the EU and about data as necessary resource for (data-driven) innovation. |
| Keywords: | Competition, innovation, competition law, merger control, innovation market |
| JEL: | K21 L12 L41 O31 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201742&r=cta |
| By: | Frank Fossen; Ray Rees; Davud Rostam-Afschar; Viktor Steiner |
| Abstract: | We investigate how personal income taxes affect the portfolio share of personal wealth that entrepreneurs invest in their own business. In a reformulation of the standard portfolio choice model that allows for underreporting of private business income to tax authorities, we show that a fall in the tax rate may increase investment in risky entrepreneurial business equity at the intensive margin, but decrease entrepreneurial investment at the extensive margin. To test these hypotheses, we use household survey panel data for Germany eliciting the personal wealth composition in detail in 2002, 2007, and 2012. We analyze the effects of personal income taxes on the portfolio shares of six asset classes of private households, including private business equity. In a system of simultaneous demand equations in first differences, we identify the tax effects by an instrumental variables approach exploiting tax reforms during our observation period. To account for selection into entrepreneurship, we use changes in entry regulation into skilled trades. Estimation results are consistent with the predictions of our theoretical model. An important policy insight is that lower taxes drive out businesses that are viable only due to tax avoidance or evasion, but increase investment in private businesses that are also worthwhile in the absence of taxes. |
| Keywords: | taxation, entrepreneurship, portfolio choice, investment |
| JEL: | H24 H25 H26 L26 G11 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6558&r=cta |
| By: | Katengeza, Samson P. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Holden , Stein T. (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Fisher , Monica (Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology) |
| Abstract: | Soil fertility management (SFM) technologies may potentially protect against climate risks, reduce nutrient depletion and enhance food security. In this paper, we study impact of drought exposure on adoption and adoption intensity of SFM technologies, specifically, focusing on maize-legume intercropping and organic manure. The paper uses four-round panel data collected from six districts in Malawi over a period of nine years and we use correlated random effects models with a control function approach for data analysis. Results show an increase in adoption rates from 33% in 2006 to 76% in 2015 for maize-legume intercropping and from 30% (2006) to 53% (2015)for organic manure. Regression results reveal that exposure to early and late dry spells increases the likelihood of adoption and adoption intensity of maize-legume intercropping with late droughts also having a positive impact on adoption and adoption intensity of organic manure. We also find positive effects of fertilizer use intensity and fertilizer price on adoption and adoption intensity of both intercropping and organic manure. |
| Keywords: | Soil fertility management; maize-legume intercropping; organic manure; adoption; drought impacts; Malawi |
| JEL: | Q12 Q16 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2017–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2017_011&r=cta |
| By: | Peters, Jan Cornelius |
| Abstract: | "We show for Germany that labor productivity as reflected in wage is, ceteris paribus, higher for workers who previously acquired work experience in rather urban labor markets with a large local workforce than in rather rural labor markets which are small in terms of regional employment. Our empirical analysis provides new evidence on the magnitude of these dynamic agglomeration gains by estimating the elasticity of wages with regard to the (cumulated) size of the local labor markets in which workers acquired experience. It shows that this elasticity increases with the level of individual experience to more than 0.06 implying that today's wage of a worker with 20 years of experience or more would be about four to five percent higher if the worker would have gained all his or her experience in local labor markets double the size of the labor markets in which he or she actually was working in the past. These identified dynamic agglomeration gains are supposed to be related to learning externalities. The analysis uses information on individual employment biographies and regional employment from 1975 onwards. The wage information refers to more than 300,000 entry wages of new employment relationships in Germany in the period 2005 to 2011. The depreciation of human capital is taken into account and that high-skilled workers presumably are the ones other workers learn the most from." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Date: | 2017–10–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201731&r=cta |
| By: | David Lambert; Fabio Vanni |
| Abstract: | We present an analytical solution for the connectivity of a network model with a "non-simultaneous" linking scheme. Despite its simplicity, this model exhibits node-space correlations in the link distribution, and anomalous fluctuations behavior of the time series of the connectivity variable, and a finite-size e ff ect: the maximum number of links occurs away from the critical value of the system parameter. We derive an exact Master Equation for this model using a quantum algebra approach to stochastic processes. Fluctuations are much more important than the mean-field approximation predicts, which we attribute to the heterogeneity in the model. The maximal heterogeneous population corresponds to the critical value of the system. Finally as an explanatory case we evaluate the growth of the network value in relation with the system interconnectedness. |
| Keywords: | Complexity, heterogeneity, critical phenomena, network value, coordination costs, stochastic processes |
| Date: | 2017–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2017/22&r=cta |
| By: | Marek Hudon; Marc Labie; Patrick Reichert |
| Abstract: | Although microfinance organizations have typically been considered as inherently ethical, recent events have challenged the legitimacy of the sector. High interest rates and the exorbitant profitability of some market leaders have raised the question of what can be considered a fair, or ethical, level of profit for social enterprise. In this article, we construct a fair profit framework for social enterprise based on four dimensions: the level of profitability, the extent to which the organization adheres to its social mission, the pricing and the surplus distribution. We then apply this framework using an empirical sample of 496 microfinance institutions. Results indicate that satisfying all four dimensions is a difficult, although not impossible, task. Based on our framework, 13 MFIs emerge as true double-bottom-line organizations and tend to be relatively young, large MFIs from South Asia. Using our framework, we argue that excessive profits can be better understood relative to pricing, the outreach of the MFI and the organizational commitment to clients in the form of reduced interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Microfinance; Development Ethics; Exploitation; Institutional Logic |
| JEL: | F35 G21 G28 L31 M14 |
| Date: | 2017–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/258793&r=cta |
| By: | Schøyen, Øivind (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper models a game between an authority, seeking to implement its preferred morality, and a parental generation, seeking to socialize a younger generation into the their own morality. The authority chooses a coercion level for adhering to the non-state morality, whereupon the parental generation chooses whether to insurrect and, if not, how much to invest in socialization. The novel feature of this paper is that we formalize and explore the consequences of an intrinsic negative reaction to coercion: coercion resentment. The key result is to show the necessary micro Level assumptions for an inefficient interval of coercion that can account for authorities choosing to restrain their use of coercion. Furthermore, the paper characterizes the socialization and insurrection preferences needed for the long run equilibrium to be path dependent. Two historical periods are presented through the lens of the model: the Counter-Reformation in early modern France and the Holy Roman Empire (1517-1685) and the Soviet Secularization project (1922-1991). |
| Keywords: | Moral persistence; Political legitimacy |
| JEL: | D02 D10 D82 N30 N40 P16 |
| Date: | 2017–10–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2017_018&r=cta |
| By: | Nishant Chadha; Bharti Nandwani |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the impact of ethnic fragmentation on the provision of private and public schools, separately. The distinction is made because the two types of schools have different objective functions, a factor which can influence the relationship between ethnic fragmentation and public goods provision. We find that ethnic fragmentation has a negative impact on the provision of schools overall, but this effect manifests differently for the two types of schools considered. To explain our findings we show that ethnic fragmentation lowers collective action, and because of the different objectives of provision of private and public schools, lack of collective action results in a differential impact. While private schools are shown to be lower in number, public schools are of lower quality in fragmented districts. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2017-176&r=cta |
| By: | Karthik Muralidharan; Abhijeet Singh; Alejandro J. Ganimian |
| Abstract: | We present experimental evidence on the impact of a technology-aided after-school instruction program on learning outcomes in middle school grades in urban India, using a lottery that provided students with a voucher to cover program costs. A key feature of the program was its ability to individually customize educational content to match the level and rate of progress of each student. We find that lottery winners had large increases in test scores of 0.36ó in math and 0.22ó in Hindi over just a 4.5-month period. IV estimates suggest that attending the program for 90 days would increase math and Hindi test scores by 0.59ó and 0.36ó respectively. We find similar absolute test score gains for all students, but the relative gain was much greater for academically-weaker students because their rate of learning in the control group was close to zero. We show that the program was able to effectively cater to the very wide variation in student learning levels within a single grade by precisely targeting instruction to the level of student preparation. The program was highly cost-effective, both in terms of productivity per dollar and unit of time. Our results suggest that well-designed technology-aided instruction programs can sharply improve productivity in delivering education. |
| Keywords: | computer-aided learning, productivity in education, personalized learning, teaching at the right level, post-primary education, middle school, secondary school |
| JEL: | C93 I21 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6328&r=cta |
| By: | Tilsa Ore Monago (Stony Brook University, Department of Economics, 100 Nicolls Road, Stony Brook, NY 11794-4384); |
| Abstract: | Based on a game theoretical model I previously developed, I present some evidence of the effect of the unlocked-handset policy recently implemented in Peru based on market analysis and reduced form empirical methods using consumer panel data. From the market analysis, declining prices are observed with the implementation of the policy in January 2015, also the switching rate rocketed since then. To retain consumers and attract rival's consumers, companies responded also with very low on-net prices through their "private network" with unlimited minutes, which may have increased the network effects in the market. From my estimation, I found a significant negative effect of switching costs on demand for voice traffic (which suggest a positive effect of the unlocked-handset policy on demand) and positive network effects on the demand. |
| Keywords: | switching costs; mobile telecommunications; unlocked-handsets policy |
| JEL: | L13 L43 L96 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:1712&r=cta |
| By: | Piazzalunga, Daniela (IRVAPP) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the gender wage gap among recently graduated people, controlling for job and academic variables and for the field of study, as women lag in highly remunerative majors. The raw gender gap in hourly wages is 5.6%. Although including academic variables and the field of study, on top of job-related variables, slightly reduces the unexplained gap, the latter still accounts for most of the total difference. Using quantile decomposition, the paper shows that the unexplained gap increases along the wage distribution, indicating a glass ceiling effect. Heterogeneities arise across fields of study: the largest total gap emerges in Law, Political-Social sciences, and Economics-Statistics. In most disciplines, there is a significant unexplained gap – from 3.3% (Medicine), to 8.7% (Law), up to 9.6% (Agriculture) – which constitutes the largest share of the difference, confirming that most of the wage gap remains unexplained also by major. Finally, I use geographical differences to explore the influence of institutional and macro-economic variables, as well as of attitudes towards gender norms. Results indicate that childcare and part-time availability are correlated with lower gender wage gaps, while traditional gender norms are associated with higher gaps. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, college graduates, quantile decomposition, field of study, regional differences |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J71 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11045&r=cta |
| By: | H. Xavier Jara; Marcelo Varela |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to explore the redistributive effects of taxes and benefits in Ecuador using two different approaches: direct use of reported taxes and benefits in household survey data, and use of simulated taxes and benefits obtained from ECUAMOD, the tax-benefit microsimulation model for Ecuador. Our results show that simulated taxes and social insurance contributions capture better the number of taxpayers and aggregate revenue amounts from official statistics than information taken directly from the data. Moreover, using reported data on taxes and social insurance contributions underestimates their redistributive effect in comparison with simulated policies. We discuss factors behind the differences between the two approaches and conclude with a discussion of the advantages offered by microsimulation for policy analysis. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2017-177&r=cta |
| By: | Nicolas Carnot; Magdalena Kizior; Gilles Mourre |
| Abstract: | This paper simulates a euro area stabilisation instrument that addresses some concerns often levied against such ideas. The simulation uses a 'double condition' over observed unemployment rates for triggering the payments to, as well as the contributions from, participating Member States. The functioning is symmetric between good and bad times and includes a form of experience rating as a further safeguard. The behaviour of the fund is assessed with simulations over the past three decades and with 'real time' simulations dating from the euro’s inception as a crucial robustness check. The simulations show that a significant and timely degree of stabilisation can be achieved, complementing national stabilisers without introducing permanent transfers or increasing overall debt. The paper also explores variants of the basic scheme including the introduction of a threshold for restricting the activity of the fund to large shocks. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic stabilisation; risk-sharing; income smoothing; fiscal stabilisers; transfer scheme |
| JEL: | E61 E62 F36 F42 H77 |
| Date: | 2017–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/259556&r=cta |
| By: | Fiona Burlig; Christopher Knittel; David Rapson; Mar Reguant; Catherine Wolfram |
| Abstract: | In the United States, consumers invest billions of dollars annually in energy efficiency, often on the assumption that these investments will pay for themselves via future energy cost reductions. We study energy efficiency upgrades in K-12 schools in California. We develop and implement a novel machine learning approach for estimating treatment effects using high-frequency panel data, and demonstrate that this method outperforms standard panel fixed effects approaches. We find that energy efficiency upgrades reduce electricity consumption by 3 percent, but that these reductions total only 24 percent of ex ante expected savings. HVAC and lighting upgrades perform better, but still deliver less than half of what was expected. Finally, beyond location, school characteristics that are readily available to policymakers do not appear to predict realization rates across schools, suggesting that improving realization rates via targeting may prove challenging. |
| JEL: | C14 L9 Q41 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23908&r=cta |
| By: | Thomas W. Quan (University of Georgia); Kevin R. Williams (Cowles Foundation, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Online retail gives consumers access to an astonishing variety of products. However, the additional value created by this variety depends on the extent to which local retailers already satisfy local demand. To quantify the gains and account for local demand, we use detailed data from an online retailer and propose methodology to address a common issue in such data-sparsity of local sales due to sampling and a significant number of local zeros. Our estimates indicate products face substantial demand heterogeneity across markets; as a result, we find gains from online variety that are 45% lower than previous studies. |
| Keywords: | Product Variety, Demand Estimation, Long Tail, Online Retail |
| JEL: | C13 L67 L81 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2054r2&r=cta |
| By: | Ganga Tilakaratna; Wimal Nanayakkara; Sunimalee Madurawala; Suwendrani Jayaratne; Kanchana Wickramasinghe |
| Abstract: | Sri Lanka is one of the signatories of the UN mandate on Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) comprise 17 goals and 169 targets, ranging from poverty, inequality, health, education and environment. This paper examines the implications of SDG implementation in Sri Lanka, in particular how the SDGs are embedded in the national context, and issues related to coordination, monitoring, partnerships and stakeholder participation. It reveals that most of the SDGs and their targets are relevant to Sri Lanka, and are in line with the priority areas. The study stresses the need of a designated national-level body to coordinate activities carried out by different stakeholders and to drive implementation and monitoring of the SDGs in Sri Lanka. Participation of a range of stakeholders, including the government, international organisations, private sector and civil society organisations, academia and general public, is crucial for the successful implementation of SDGs. Inadequacy of awareness of the SDGs among many stakeholders and the general public is a key constraint to the effective implementation of the SDGs. Partnership and stakeholder participation can play an important role in raising awareness and monitoring of SDGs, sharing knowledge/expertise, as well as in mobilising financial and technical resources. Monitoring the progress of SDGs will also require strengthening the capacity of the national statistics office and other relevant agencies involved in the data compilation. |
| Keywords: | Sri Lanka, First 1000 Days of SDGs, partnership and stakeholder participation, adequacy of financing, relevance of SDGs, statistical capacity |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svo:opaper:41&r=cta |
| By: | Briel, Stephanie; Osikominu, Aderonke |
| Abstract: | We analyze whether engagement as class representative affects the character skill formation in adolescents. To estimate the c.p. effect we combine a stratified propensity score matching approach with a flexible regression adjustment exploiting data form the GSOEP. We use different tests to check the plausibility and quality of our estimation strategy. Our findings are in line with the hypothesis that leadership experience during school time positively affects the development of character skills. |
| JEL: | I21 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168236&r=cta |
| By: | Bellino, Enrico (Catholic University of the Sacred Heart); Serrano, Franklin (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro) |
| Abstract: | The gravitation process of market prices towards production prices is here presented by means of an analyti-cal framework where the classical capital mobility principle is coupled with a determination of the deviation of market from normal (natural) prices which closely follows the description provided by Adam Smith: each pe-riod the level of the market price of a commodity will be higher (lower) than its production price if the quanti-ty brought to the market falls short (exceeds) the level of effectual demand. This approach also simplifies the results with respect to those obtained in cross-dual literature. Three versions of the model are here proposed: i) assuming a given level of aggregate employment; ii) assuming a sort of Say’s law; iii) and on the basis of an explicit adjustment of actual outputs to effectual demands. All these cases describe dynamics in which market prices can converge asymptotically towards production prices. |
| Keywords: | Market prices; normal prices; Classical competition; gravitation; effectual demand |
| JEL: | B12 D20 E11 E30 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:sraffa:0025&r=cta |
| By: | Espinoza-Delgado, Jose; Klasen, Stephan |
| Abstract: | Most existing empirical papers concerned about multidimensional poverty use the household as the unit of analysis, so that the multidimensional poverty status of the household is equated with the multidimensional poverty status of all its members. This assumption ignores intra-household inequalities. Additionally, households containing both a female and a male cannot contribute to a gender gap in poverty, so gender differentials in poverty cannot be estimated. But, the Sustainable Development Goals have put special emphasis on gender equality; therefore, new measures able to capture the gender differences are needed. Consequently, in this paper, we propose an individual-based multidimensional poverty measure in order to estimate the three I’s of multidimensional poverty (incidence, intensity, and inequality) in Nicaragua as well as the gender differentials. We also estimate logit regressions to better understanding the determinants of multidimensional poverty in this country. Overall, we find that there are statistically significant gender differences in multidimensional poverty in Nicaragua; but, they are estimated to be small and lower than 5%. However, the gender differential in inequality is larger than 10%, and it suggests that multi-dimensionally poor women are living in very intense poverty when compared with multi-dimensionally poor men. We also find that the elderly and children are the most vulnerable people in terms of multidimensional poverty in this country; furthermore, when information on employment, domestic work, and social protection is considered in the analysis, the gender gaps become more substantial, and women are more likely to be poor than men. |
| Keywords: | multidimensional poverty, poverty measurement, intra-household inequality, gender gaps, Latin America, Nicaragua |
| JEL: | D1 D13 D6 D63 I3 I32 O5 O54 |
| Date: | 2017–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81907&r=cta |
| By: | Naqvi, Syed Ali Asjad; Engelbert, Stockhammer |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a post-Keynesian ecological macro model that combines three strands of literature: the directed technological change mechanism developed in mainstream endogenous growth theory models, the ecological economic literature which highlights the role of green innovation and material ows, and the post-Keynesian school which provides a framework to deal with the demand side of the economy, nancial ows, and inter- and intra-sectoral behavioral interactions. The model is stock-fow consistent and introduces research and development (R&D) as a component of GDP funded by private rm investment and public expenditure. The economy uses three complimentary inputs - Labor, Capital, and (non-renewable) Resources. Input productivities depend on R&D expenditures, which are determined by relative changes in their respective prices. Two policy experiments are tested; a Resource tax increase, and an increase in the share of public R&D on Resources. Model results show that policy instruments that are continually increased over a long-time horizon have better chances of achieving a "green" transition than one-off climate policy shocks to the system, that primarily have a short-run affect. |
| Keywords: | directed technological change, research and development, green transition, ecological economics,post- keynesian ecomomics, stock-flow consistency |
| Date: | 2017–10–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus045:5809&r=cta |
| By: | Wadho, Waqar; Ayaz, Umair |
| Abstract: | We explore the relationship between government size and economic growth in an endogenous growth model with human capital and an unproductive capital which facilitates rent-seeking. With exogenous as well as endogenous time discounting, we find a non-monotonic relationship between the size of government and economic growth. We find that with very high (low) discounting, there is a unique low (high) growth equilibrium, regardless of the size of government. For the intermediate range of discounting, there are multiple equilibria and the growth outcome depends on the size of government. With endogenous time discounting, the growth outcome is path-dependent and depends on the level of inherited human capital. However, there is only one stable growth regime and the economy endogenously switches to it. When the institutional constraints on rent seeking are not extremely high, the stable regime is the one in which there is a high-growth equilibrium for a smaller size of the government and for larger size, both the high-growth and the low-growth equilibrium coexist. When the institutional constraints on rent seeking are extremely high, there exists only a unique high-growth equilibrium irrespective of the size of government. Furthermore, economies with bigger size of the government and/or with poor quality institutions will take longer to endogenously switch to this stable growth regime. |
| Keywords: | Government size,Rent-seeking,Economic Growth,Human capital,Discounting |
| JEL: | O41 H11 D72 D90 J24 O43 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:131&r=cta |
| By: | Geovanny Castro Aristizabal; Luis Eduardo Giron Cruz; Daniel Soto Cuadros (Faculty of Economics and Management, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali) |
| Abstract: | The present study finds the main factors that influence entrepreneurship in Colombia, Chile and Ecuador, based on data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor -GEM, 2014- and the Entrepreneurship Activity Rate -TEA-. For this, initially, the multivariate method of Multiple Correspondence Analysis was used. Subsequently, a binomial logit model was estimated for each of the countries. It was found that both formal and informal human capital are determinant to generate entrepreneurship by opportunity. Likewise, experience, empirical knowledge, gender and age. Finally, by including in the model the technological level of the sector (medium-high), it was estimated that Chile has a greater impact on entrepreneurship. given the current situation of diminishing tensions with the US government. |
| Keywords: | Cuba, Entrepreneurship opportunity, Logit models, Multiple Correspondence Analysis, Human Capital, Colombia, Ecuador, Chile. |
| JEL: | J24 L26 Y40 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ddt:wpaper:29&r=cta |
| By: | Wasem, Jürgen; Buchner, Florian; Lux, Gerald; Schillo, Sonja |
| Abstract: | Competitive social health insurance systems (at least) in Western Europe have implemented systems of morbidity based risk adjustment to set a level playing field for insurers. However, many high cost insured still are heavily underfunded despite risk adjustment, leaving incentives for risk selection. In most of these health care systems, there is an ongoing debate about how to deal with such underpaid high cost cases. This study develops four distinct concepts by adding variables to risk adjustment or by setting up a high cost pool for underpaid insured besides the risk adjustment system. Their features, incentives and distributional effects are discussed. With a data set of 6 million insured, performance is demonstrated for Germany. All models achieve a substantial improvement in model fit, measured in terms of R2 as well as CPM. As the results of the various models are different in different dimensions, the trade-offs that have to be dealt with and should be addressed, when implementing a model to reduce underfunding of high cost cases. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168122&r=cta |
| By: | Masaya Yasuoka (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | An increase in life expectancy brings about an aging society, necessitating increasing demand for elderly care services. This paper presents an examination of how an aging society affects the demand for elderly care services and the labor market for elderly care services. Related reports of the literature describe that an aging society raises the share of labor dedicated to elderly care services. However, considering a closed economy in which saving affects the capital stock, an aging society does not always raise the share of labor allocated for elderly care services as derived by the related literature. This paper presents an examination of how the labor share and wage inequality between the final goods sector and elderly care sector are determined. In addition, this paper presents an examination of whether the subsidy for elderly care service increases demand for elderly care services, or not. |
| Keywords: | Aging society, Elderly care service, Labor mobility, Two-sector model |
| JEL: | J21 H20 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:168&r=cta |
| By: | Aisbett, Emma; Brueckner, Markus; Steinhauser, Ralf |
| Abstract: | In 2009 the Australian government delivered $8 billion in direct payments to households. These payments were pre-announced and randomly allocated over a 5-week period. We exploit this random allocation to estimate the causal response of households consumption expenditures. While we don't find a effect on consumption expenditures at the time of transfer we find a small, albeit statistically significant increase in consumption expenditures at the time of the announcement of the fiscal stimulus. |
| JEL: | E62 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168230&r=cta |
| By: | Bannier, Christina E.; Pauls, Thomas; Walter, Andreas |
| Abstract: | We analyze the market reaction to the sentiment of the CEO speech at the Annual General Meeting (AGM). Adapting a finance-specific German dictionary based on Loughran and McDonald (2011), we find that CEO speeches' textual sentiment is significantly related to abnormal stock returns and trading volume around the AGM. Investors hence seem to perceive the speeches' sentiment as a valuable indicator of future firm performance. |
| JEL: | G02 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168192&r=cta |
| By: | Simone Pellegrino (Department of Economics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino, Italy); Guido Perboli (Department of Control and Computer Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, Italy); Giovanni Squillero (Department of Control and Computer Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, Italy) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we propose a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm for supporting the definition of a personal income tax reform. As a case study, we apply this methodology to the Italian income tax, and consider a recently implemented tax cut. Our optimization algorithm is able to determine a set of tax structures that maximize the redistributive effect of the tax while minimizing its inefficiency - considering for the former the Reynolds-Smolensky index and for the latter the weighted average of taxpayers' effective marginal tax rates. The approach also takes into account two additional factors: the tax has to guarantee a specific revenue and to minimize the share of losing taxpayers with respect to the pre-reform situation. Experimental results clearly demonstrate that the methodology we employ can support the policy-maker's decisions in complex, real- world situations. |
| Keywords: | Personal Income Tax, Evolutionary Algorithms, Multi-Objective Optimization |
| JEL: | H23 H24 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tur:wpapnw:044&r=cta |
| By: | Pierre C. Boyer; Kai A. Konrad; Brian Roberson |
| Abstract: | We consider campaign competition in which candidates compete for votes among a continuum of voters by engaging in persuasive efforts that are targetable. Each individual voter is persuaded by campaign effort and votes for the candidate who targets more persuasive effort to this voter. Each candidate chooses a level of total campaign effort and allocates their effort among the set of voters. We completely characterize equilibrium for the majoritarian objective game and compare that to the vote-share maximizing game. If the candidates are symmetric ex ante, both types of electoral competition dissipate the rents from office in expectation. However, the equilibria arising under the two electoral objectives qualitatively differ. In majoritarian elections, candidates randomize over their level of total campaign effort, which provides support for the puzzling phenomenon of the emergence of supermajorities in majoritarian systems. Vote-share maximization leads to an equilibrium in which both candidates make deterministic budget choices and reach a precise fifty-fifty split of vote shares. We also study how asymmetry between the candidates affects the equilibrium. If some share of the voters is loyal to one of the candidates, then both candidates expend the same expected efforts in equilibrium, but the advantaged candidate wins with higher probability for majoritarian voting or a higher share of voters for vote-share maximization. |
| Keywords: | campaign competition, continuous general lotto game, vote buying, flexible budgets, supermajorities, loyal voters |
| JEL: | D72 D78 D82 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6409&r=cta |
| By: | Hou, Yang; Li, Steven |
| Abstract: | The error correction coefficients, known as the loading factors, are a key component for price discovery measurement. To date, only constant loading factors have been considered for the price discovery measurement. This paper attempts to consider the autoregressive loading factors and their implications for the price discovery measurement. Based on the minute-by-minute data from the S&P 500 cash and E-mini futures markets, this paper reveals that the loading factors are indeed autoregressive. Furthermore, we propose three AR(1) processes for the loading factors and assess their performance in price discovery measurement compared to the constant loading factor model. Overall, this research provides supporting empirical evidence for using autoregressive loading factors for the price discovery measurement. |
| Keywords: | Price Discovery, Information Share, S&P 500 E-mini Futures, AGDCC GARCH, Loading Factor, Error Correction Coefficient |
| JEL: | G13 G14 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81999&r=cta |
| By: | Natalia Danzer; Martin Halla; Nicole Schneeweis; Martina Zweimüller |
| Abstract: | We provide a novel interpretation of the estimated treatment effects from evaluations of parental leave reforms. Accounting for the counterfactual mode of care is crucial in the analysis of child outcomes and potential mediators. We evaluate a large and generous parental leave extension in Austria exploiting a sharp birthday cutoff-based discontinuity in the eligibility for extended parental leave and geographical variation in formal childcare. We find that estimated treatment effects on long-term child outcomes differ substantially according to the availability of formal childcare and the mother’s counterfactual work behavior. We show that extending parental leave has significant positive effects on children’s health and human capital outcomes only if the reform induces a replacement of informal childcare with maternal care. We conclude that care provided by mothers (or formal institutions) is superior to informal care arrangements. |
| Keywords: | parental leave, formal childcare, informal childcare, child development, maternal labor supply, fertility |
| JEL: | J13 H52 J22 J12 I38 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6501&r=cta |
| By: | Elena Stepanova |
| Abstract: | We emphasize that color composition is an important characteristic of a painting. It impacts the auction price of a painting but it has never been considered in previous studies on art markets. By using Picasso's paintings and paintings of Color Field Abstract Expressionists sold in Chrisite's and Sotheby's auctions in New York between 1998 and 2016, we demonstrate the method to analyze color compositions: how to extract color palettes from a painting image and how to measure color characteristics. We propose two measures: 1) the surface occupied by specific colors, 2) color diversity of a painting composition. Controlling for all conventional painting and sale characteristics, our empirical results find significant evidence of contrastive paintings, i.e. paintings with high diversity of colors, carrying a premium than equivalent artworks which are performed in monochromatic style. In the case of Picasso's paintings, our econometric analysis shows that some colors are associated with high prices. |
| Keywords: | art markets, hedonic pricing, Picasso, Rothko, visual data, color, color quantizing |
| Date: | 2017–10–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2017/25&r=cta |
| By: | Constant, Amelie F. |
| Abstract: | The health status of people is a precious commodity and central to economic, socio-political, and environmental dimensions of any country. Yet it is often the missing statistic in all general statistics, demographics, and presentations about the portrait of immigrants and natives. In this paper we are concerned with international migration and health outcomes in the host countries. Through a general literature review and examination of specific immigration countries, we provide insights into the Healthy Immigrant Paradox and the health assimilation of immigrants as we also elucidate selection and measurement challenges. While health is part of human capital, health assimilation is the mirror image of earnings assimilation. Namely, immigrants arrive with better health compared to natives and their health deteriorates with longer residence in the host country, converging to the health of natives or becoming even worse. A deeper understanding of immigrant health trajectories, and disparities with natives and other immigrants is of great value to societies and policymakers, who can design appropriate policy frameworks that address public health challenges, and prevent the health deterioration of immigrants. |
| Keywords: | Health status,Healthy Immigrant Paradox,International migration,Assimilation,Age-Cohort-Period effects,Selection,Aging |
| JEL: | I00 I10 I12 I14 I18 J00 F22 J11 J14 J15 J24 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:124&r=cta |
| By: | Ngochera, Maxon (Senga Bay Fisheries Research Center); Donda, Steve (Fisheries Department); Hara , Mafaniso (Institute for poverty, Land and Agrarian Studies (PLAAS), School of Government, Faculty of Economic and Management Science, University of Western Cape,); Berge, Erling (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | The Southeast Arm of Lake Malawi catchment has a wide range of natural resources that require prudent management for sustainability and maximisation of benefits. The current management practice is government sector based, with individual Departments and Ministries using their own policies, legislations and management approaches, yet dealing with the same composite resource and user communities. This has resulted in fragmentation of management leading to the lack of alignment between formal and informal institutions, and competition for power and authority for management. Fragmentation is also leading to loss of resource rent. This paper analyses how and why management is fragmented in the Southeast Arm of Lake Malawi catchment and suggests how management could be defragmented, with special interest on fisheries. Activities with high negative impacts on fisheries include: overfishing; soil erosion resulting in siltation and turbidity of the lake; chemical and organic pollution; loss of access to land and beaches; and habitat loss. There is need for a better and more holistic understanding of how human activities represent both livelihood benefits and a threat to sustainability of natural resources in order to find ways for balancing these two aspects. We suggest that to increase the efficacy of management of Lake Malawi’s Southeast Arm will require ‘defragmented decentralization’, an approach whereby devolution of authority and responsibility are ceded to the district and local levels, respectively. |
| Keywords: | Management; institutions; fragmentation; defragmented decentralisation; devolution; Lake Malawi |
| JEL: | H11 H70 P48 Q28 |
| Date: | 2017–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2017_012&r=cta |
| By: | Ashima Goyal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Deepak Kumar Agarwal |
| Abstract: | We examine the strength and efficacy of transmission from the policy rate and liquidity provision to market rates in India, using event window regression analysis. We find the interest rate transmission channel is dominant, but the quantity channel has an indirect impact in increasing the size of interest rate pass through. The speed of response is faster where there is more market depth. Short term liquidity matters for short term rates, especially where markets are thin and long-term liquidity for longer term government securities. Asymmetry, or more transmission during tightening, finds little support, but pass through is faster during tightening. Market rates respond similarly to policy rate changing direction. The quantum channel directly contributes more when in sync with the interest rate channel only occasionally, but contributes indirectly by increasing the size of coefficients. Implications for policy are drawn out. |
| Keywords: | Monetary transmission; Repo Rate; market rates; short and long-term liquidity |
| JEL: | E51 E58 E42 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2017-017&r=cta |
| By: | Atila Abdulkadiroglu; Parag A. Pathak; Jonathan Schellenberg; Christopher R. Walters |
| Abstract: | School choice may lead to improvements in school productivity if parents' choices reward effective schools and punish ineffective ones. This mechanism requires parents to choose schools based on causal effectiveness rather than peer characteristics. We study relationships among parent preferences, peer quality, and causal effects on outcomes for applicants to New York City's centralized high school assignment mechanism. We use applicants' rank-ordered choice lists to measure preferences and to construct selection-corrected estimates of treatment effects on test scores and high school graduation. We also estimate impacts on college attendance and college quality. Parents prefer schools that enroll high-achieving peers, and these schools generate larger improvements in short- and long-run student outcomes. We find no relationship between preferences and school effectiveness after controlling for peer quality. |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23912&r=cta |
| By: | Xiuli Sun; Haizheng Li; Vivek Ghosal |
| Abstract: | Understanding the factors that may produce a sustained rate of innovation is important for promoting economic development and growth. In this paper, we examine the role of human capital in firms’ innovation by using a large sample of manufacturing firms from China. We use two firm-level datasets from China: one from metropolitan cities, and one from provincial small and medium sized cities. Patent applications are used as the measure of innovation. Human capital indicators used include skilled human capital (number of highly educated workers), general manager’s education and tenure, and management team’s education and age. We find that skilled human capital has a significant positive effect on firms’ innovation, while the management team’s age has a significant negative effect on innovation. The General Manager’s tenure plays a significant positive role in firm innovation in metropolitan cities, while it is the General Manager’s education that has a positive and significant effect on firms’ innovation in small and middle cities. We also find that the effect of R&D on patents is insignificant for firms in large cities, but it is positive and significant in the smaller and medium sized cities. We conclude by noting some policy issues for promoting innovation in developing economies. |
| Keywords: | human capital, education, innovation, patents, R&D, economic development, Asia, China |
| JEL: | J24 I25 D21 D22 L13 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6370&r=cta |
| By: | Andrea Mraz Esposito; Rebecca Coughlin; Armando Yanez; Emily Sama-Miller; Patricia Del Grosso; Rebecca Kleinman; Diane Paulsell |
| Abstract: | This report begins by describing the strategies studies reported for adapting or developing culturally relevant home visiting models, the challenges experienced in delivering home visiting services and conducting evaluation research in tribal communities, and lessons learned across the 76 studies identified in the HomVEE tribal review, with a focus on cultural relevance and implementation. |
| Keywords: | Home Visiting, Effectiveness, Systematic Review, Alaskan Native, Indigenous, Nation(s), Native Hawaiians |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:d3e706862f7a4398addff9104f543aa0&r=cta |
| By: | Storz, Manuela; Koetter, Michael; Setzer, Ralph; Westphal, Andreas |
| Abstract: | We show that the speed and type of corporate deleveraging depends on the interaction between corporate and financial sector health. Based on granular bank-firm data pertaining to small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) from five stressed and two non-stressed euro area economies, we show that “zombie” firms generally continued to lever up during the 2010–2014 period. Whereas relationships with stressed banks reduce SME leverage on average, we also show that zombie firms that are tied to weak banks in euro area periphery countries increase their indebtedness even further. Sustainable economic recovery therefore requires both: deleveraging of banks and firms. JEL Classification: E44, G21, G32 |
| Keywords: | bank stress, debt overhang, zombie lending |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172104&r=cta |
| By: | Dai Zusai (Department of Economics, Temple University) |
| Abstract: | We consider general evolutionary dynamics under idiosyncratic but persistent payoff heterogeneity and study the dynamic relation between the strategy composition over different payoff types and the aggregate strategy distribution of the entire population. It is rigorously proven that continuity of the switching rate function or the type distribution guarantees the existence of a unique trajectory. In major evolutionary dynamics except the standard best response dynamic, an agent's switching rate from the current action to a new action increases with the payoff gain from this switch. This payoff sensitivity makes a heterogeneous dynamic nonaggregable: the transition of the aggregate strategy generically depends not only on the current aggregate strategy but also on the current strategy composition. However, if we look at the strategy composition, stationarity of equilibrium in general and stability in potential games hold under any admissible dynamics. In particular, local stability of each individual equilibrium composition under an admissible dynamic is equivalent to that of the corresponding aggregate equilibrium in the aggregate dynamic induced from the standard best response dynamic, though the basin of attraction may differ over different dynamics. |
| Keywords: | evolutionary dynamics, payoff heterogeneity, aggregation, continuous space, potential games |
| JEL: | C73 C62 C61 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tem:wpaper:1702&r=cta |
| By: | Roud Vitaliy (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Valeriya Vlasova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops an integrated framework to examine the determinants of industry-science cooperation in the general process of developing innovation. Based on the literature review and using firm-level data on innovation strategies of 805 manufacturing enterprises in Russia we investigate what are the incentives to firms (1) to cooperate with universities and R&D organizations and (2) to choose a particular mode of interaction that ranges from purchasing S&T services to a full scale original R&D aimed at creating new-to-market innovation. We suggest that a broad range of intramural and external determinants, including competition regime, absorptive capacity, technological opportunities, appropriability conditions, public support, as well as barriers to the practical application of R&D results influence the firm’s decision on cooperation with knowledge producers. The findings indicate that the scale of industry-science linkages in Russian manufacturing is limited and generally hampered by low propensity of business to the R&D-based innovation strategies |
| Keywords: | Science-industry cooperation; Innovation strategy; Firm-level; Manufacturing; Russia |
| JEL: | D22 D83 L2 O31 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:75sti2017&r=cta |
| By: | Konstantin A. Kholodilin (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the governmental regulation of the rental housing market in the states that arose on the ruins of the Russian Empire during the Russian Civil war in 19181922. It examines and compares three major tools of the housing policy of those times: rent control, protection of tenants from eviction, and housing rationing. It shows evolution and continuity of the housing legislation of the non-Bolshevik governments and its relationship with the housing policies of Bolsheviks. |
| Keywords: | Russia; Russian Civil war; non-bolshevik governments; rental housing; housing policy. |
| JEL: | N44 O18 R38 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:151/hum/2017&r=cta |
| By: | Clemens, Michael A. (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Despite the large individual benefits of guest work by the poor in rich countries, agencies charged with global poverty reduction do little to facilitate guest work. This may be because guest work is viewed as a repugnant transaction – one whose harmful side-effects might cause third parties to discourage it. This paper sets out six criteria for a transaction to be repugnant in consequentialist terms, and conducts uncommon tests for repugnance: It uses these criteria to formulate several empirical tests for the repugnance of guest work by Indian construction workers in the United Arab Emirates. It separates the effects of guest work from the correlates of guest work using a natural experiment that quasi-exogenously allocated guest work among a group of several thousand job applicants. The effects offer little evidence that guest work in this setting is typically the cause of repugnant consequences. |
| Keywords: | migration, guestwork, temporary, Gulf, Dubai, UAE, rights, abuse, exploitation, migrant, immigrant, labor, mobility, scheme, visa, construction, seasonal, repugnant, externality, regret, behavioral |
| JEL: | F22 J6 O12 O16 O19 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11061&r=cta |
| By: | Zakane, Ahmed |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to give an overview of the human capital's contribution to the growth of the Algerian economy. The author considers, as a starting point, the work on the endogenous growth provided by the theoretical constributions of Lucas (1988) and Romer (1990) in addition to the empirical results of Benhabib and Speigel (1994), Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992). In the case of Algeria, the application of a simple augmented Solow model combining the human capital and the workforce (labor) shows the latter variable gives a better explanation to the contribution of the human capital in initiating a sustainable, self-sustaining growth process. |
| Keywords: | Croissance économique, Capital humain, Capital physique, Technologie. |
| JEL: | F43 J24 O47 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81983&r=cta |
| By: | Laun, Lisa (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Palme, Mårten (Department of economics, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the background to the increase in labor force participation of older workers in Sweden since 2000. In the first part, we study how the characteristics of the elderly have changed with respect to health, education level and work environment, as well as the impact of joint decision-making within the household. In the second part, we study the importance of institutional changes, including a major reform of the old-age pension system, introduction of tax credits for older workers, changes of the mandatory retirement age and stricter eligibility criteria in the disability insurance program. We find that the rise in labor force participation has coincided with improvements in health and educational attainment across birth cohorts as well as increased screening stringency in the disability insurance program. |
| Keywords: | retirement; NDC pension plans; disability insurance |
| JEL: | I10 J26 |
| Date: | 2017–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2017_017&r=cta |
| By: | Jessen, Robin; Metzing, Maria; Rostam-Afschar, Davud |
| Abstract: | A common assumption in the optimal taxation literature is that the social planner maximizes a welfarist social welfare function with weights decreasing with income. However, high transfer withdrawal rates in many countries imply very low weights for the working poor in practice. We reconcile this puzzle by generalizing the optimal taxation framework by Saez (2002) to allow for alternatives to welfarism. We calculate weights of a social planner's function as implied by the German tax and transfer system based on the concepts of welfarism, minimum absolute and relative sacrifice, as well as subjective justness. For the latter we use a novel question from the German Socio-Economic Panel. We find that the minimum absolute sacrifice principle is in line with social weights that decline with net income. Absolute subjective justness is roughly in line with decreasing social weights, which is reflected by preferences of men, West Germans, and supporters of the grand coalition parties. |
| Keywords: | Justness,Optimal Taxation,Income Redistribution,Equal Sacrifice,Inequality,Subjective Preferences |
| JEL: | D63 D60 H21 H23 I38 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohdps:272017&r=cta |
| By: | Neumann, Kai; Anderson, Carl; Denich, Manfred |
| Abstract: | The UN's Sustainable Development Goals in their generalized form need to be further reflected in order to identify synergies and trade-offs between their (sub-)targets, and to apply them to concrete nations and regions. Explorative, qualitative cause and effect modeling could serve as a tool for adding crucial factors and enabling a better understanding of the interrelations between the goals, eventually leading to more informed concrete measures better able to cope with their inherent obstacles. This work provides and describes a model that could serve as a template for concrete application. The generalized model already points to some potential ambivalences as well as synergies that can be reflected on using some of the latest theories and concepts from economics and transition research, among other fields. Its first analyses cautiously raise doubts that some possible assumptions behind the original Sustainable Development Goals might overlook some systemic boundaries. For example, an undifferentiated increase of productivity contradicts a lessened environmental impact and need for resources in light of potential planetary boundaries. |
| Keywords: | SDG,transition,sustainability,modeling,explorative,participatory,qualitative,insight matrix,soft factors,feedback loops,evolutionary psychology,know why,decoupling,circular economy,social lab |
| JEL: | A19 C19 B49 C38 C69 O10 O19 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201782&r=cta |
| By: | Sheung-Chi Chow (Research Institute of Business, Hang Seng Management College); Rangan Gupta (University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Tahir Suleman (School of Economics and Finance, Victoria University of Wellington and School of Business, Wellington Institute of Technology); Wing-Keung Wong (Department of Finance, Asia University and Department of Economics, Lingnan University) |
| Abstract: | This study bridges the gap in the literature to examine co-movement and predictability of Bond Spread of BRICS and PIIGS with respect to political risk (PR), financial risk (FR), and economic risk (ER). Our cointegration results conclude that there is strong long run co-movement between the various risks and bond spread for both BRICS and PIIGS. However, both linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests show that not all risks strongly predict bond spread for both BRICS and PIIGS. Our linear Granger causality findings imply that PR is the most important risk in predicting bond spread, followed by ER in both BRICS and in PIIGS, while FR is only weakly useful in predicting bond spread in BRICS but not in PIIGS. Our nonlinear individual causality results infer that ER is the most important risk in predicting bond spread, followed by FR, and PR. In this paper, we make a conjecture that linear and nonlinear causality are independent and our findings support this, and thus, we recommend academics and practitioners conduct both linear and nonlinear causality analysis in their work. The outcomes of this paper are useful for portfolio managers, investors in fixed income market and government agencies. |
| Keywords: | Country Risk, Bond Spread, Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality |
| JEL: | C33 C58 G10 G24 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201773&r=cta |
| By: | Williams, John C. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) |
| Abstract: | Presentation to the Salt Lake Area Community Leaders Luncheon, Salt Lake City, Utah, John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, October 11, 2017 |
| Date: | 2017–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfsp:183&r=cta |
| By: | Harb-Wu, Ken; Krumer, Alex |
| Abstract: | Performing in front of a supportive audience increases motivation. However, it also creates a psychological pressure, which may impair performance, especially in precision tasks. In this paper we exploit a unique setting in which professionals compete in a real-life contest with high monetary rewards in order to assess how they respond to the presence of a supportive audience. Using the task of shooting in sprint competitions of professional biathlon events over the period of sixteen years, our fixed effects estimations show that high-profile biathletes miss significantly more shots when competing in front of a supportive audience. Our results are in line with the hypothesis that a friendly environment induces individuals to choke when performing skill-based tasks. |
| Keywords: | Choking under pressure; Paradoxical performance effects on incentives; Social pressure; Biathlon; Home advantage |
| JEL: | M54 Z13 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2017:17&r=cta |
| By: | Neyt, Brecht; Omey, Eddy; Verhaest, Dieter; Baert, Stijn |
| Abstract: | We review the theories put forward, methodological approaches used, and empirical conclusions found in the multidisciplinary literature on the relationship between student employment and educational outcomes. A systematic comparison of the empirical work yields new insights that go beyond the overall reported negative effect of more intensive working schemes and that are of high academic and policy relevance. One such insight uncovered by our review is that student employment seems to have a more adverse effect on educational choices and behaviour (study engagement and the decision to continue studying) than on educational performance (in particular, graduation). |
| Keywords: | student employment,education,self-selection,review |
| JEL: | I21 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:121&r=cta |
| By: | Dan Pirjol; Jing Wang; Lingjiong Zhu |
| Abstract: | We study the short maturity asymptotics for prices of forward start Asian options under the assumption that the underlying asset follows a local volatility model. We obtain asymptotics for the cases of out-of-the-money, in-the-money, and at-the-money, considering both fixed strike and floating Asian options. The exponential decay of the price of an out-of-the-money forward start Asian option is handled using large deviations theory, and is controlled by a rate function which is given by a double-layer optimization problem. In the Black-Scholes model, the calculation of the rate function is simplified further to the solution of a non-linear equation. We obtain closed form for the rate function, as well as its asymptotic behaviors when the strike is extremely large, small, or close to the initial price of the underlying asset. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.03160&r=cta |
| By: | William Gornall; Ilya A. Strebulaev |
| Abstract: | We develop a valuation model for venture capital-backed companies and apply it to 135 U.S. unicorns – private companies with reported valuations above $1 billion. We value unicorns using financial terms from legal filings and find reported unicorn post-money valuation average 50% above fair value, with 15 being more than 100% above. Reported valuations assume all shares are as valuable as the most recently issued preferred shares. We calculate values for each share class, which yields lower valuations because most unicorns gave recent investors major protections such as a IPO return guarantees (14%), vetoes over down-IPOs (24%), or seniority to all other investors (32%). Common shares lack all such protections and are 58% overvalued. After adjusting for these valuation-inflating terms, almost one-half (65 out of 135) of unicorns lose their unicorn status. |
| JEL: | G13 G24 G32 M13 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23895&r=cta |
| By: | Monica Billio (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Anna Petronevich (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari, University of Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, CREST, National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We adopt the Dynamical Influence model from computer science and transform it to study the interaction between business and financial cycles. For this purpose, we merge it with Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model (MS-DFM) which is frequently used in economic cycle analysis. The model suggested in this paper, the Dynamical Influence Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model (DI-MS-FM), allows to reveal the pattern of interaction between business and financial cycles in addition to their individual characteristics. More specifically, this model allows to describe quantitatively the existing regimes of interaction in a given economy and to identify their timing, as well as to evaluate the effect of the government policy on the duration of each of the regimes. We are also able to determine the direction of causality between the two cycles for each of the regimes. The model estimated on the US data demonstrates reasonable results, identifying the periods of higher interaction between the cycles in the beginning of 1980s and during the Great Recession, while in-between the cycles evolve almost independently. The output of the model can be useful for policymakers since it provides a timely estimate of the current interaction regime, which allows to adjust the timing and the composition of the policy mix. |
| Keywords: | Business Cycle, Financial Cycle, Granger causality, Regime-switching models, Dynamic Factor Models, Dynamical interaction |
| JEL: | C32 C34 C38 E32 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2017:24&r=cta |
| By: | Youssef Benzarti |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a quasi-experimental design and a novel identification strategy to estimate the cost of filing income taxes. First, using US income tax returns, I observe how taxpayers choose between itemizing deductions and claiming the standard deduction. Taxpayers forgo tax savings to avoid compliance costs, which provides a revealed preference estimate of the compliance cost of itemizing. I find that this cost increases with income, consistent with a higher opportunity cost of time for richer house- holds. Second, using my estimates and estimates of the time required to file other schedules, I estimate the cost of filing federal income taxes. I find that this cost has been increasing since the 1980’s and has reached 1.2% of GDP in the most recent years. |
| JEL: | H24 H31 H83 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23903&r=cta |
| By: | Mamoon, Dawood |
| Abstract: | Pakistan-China FTA was implemented with lot of fanfare and was expected to improve Pakistani export potential and business competitiveness. However, the successive governments failed to improve local competitiveness through effective regulation resulting in (a) missed opportunity to exploit the FTA to the benefit of Pakistan and (b) a trade balance favouring only China. |
| Keywords: | FTAs, Export Promotion, Regulation |
| JEL: | F15 |
| Date: | 2017–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82012&r=cta |
| By: | Xu, Yan (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Abstract: | This thesis consists of three essays in quantitative marketing, focusing on structural empirical analysis of the evolution of consumer brand preference under incomplete information and the effect of time on consumer purchase behavior. The first essay studies the evolution of consumer brand preferences in experience goods market and investigates brands’ optimal temporary price promotion decisions. The second essay examines the role of time in determining a household’s use of the market by systematically studying the effect of time on household purchase behaviors. The final essay models information spillovers across brands and product types, and formally shows that the model can be easily applied to standard consumer choice panel data in repeat-purchase experience goods market. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:b028fd7e-53ba-4ff6-97eb-4167a82191ea&r=cta |
| By: | Sandra E. Black; Sanni Breining; David N. Figlio; Jonathan Guryan; Krzysztof Karbownik; Helena Skyt Nielsen; Jeffrey Roth; Marianne Simonsen |
| Abstract: | It is notoriously difficult to identify peer effects within the family, because of the common shocks and reflection problems. We make use of a novel identification strategy and unique data in order to gain some purchase on this problem. We employ data from the universe of children born in Florida between 1994 and 2002 and in Denmark between 1990 and 2001, which we match to school and medical records. To address the identification problem, we examine the effects of having a sibling with a disability. Utilizing three-plus-child families, we employ a differences-in-differences research design which makes use of the fact that birth order influences the amount of time which a child spends in early childhood with their siblings, disabled or not. We observe consistent evidence in both locations that the second child in a family is differentially affected when the third child is disabled. We also provide evidence which suggests that the sibling spillovers are working at least in part through the relative exposure to parental time and financial resources. |
| Keywords: | sibling spillovers, child care, sibling fixed effects |
| JEL: | I00 J13 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6348&r=cta |
| By: | Humberto Llavador; Marcus Giamattei |
| Abstract: | Classroom experiments as a teaching tool increase understanding and especially motivation. Traditionally, experiments have been run using pen-and-paper or in a computer lab. Pen-and-paper is time and resource consuming. Experiments in the lab require appropriate installations and impede the direct interaction among students. During the last two years, we have created fully elaborated packages to run a complete course in microeconomics principles using face-to-face experiments with mobile devices. The experiments are based on Bergstrom-Miller (2000), and we used classEx, a free online tool, to run them in the classroom.The packages were used at Universitat Pompeu Fabra with over 500 undergraduate students in the fall 2016. This paper presents our experience on classEx and the Bergstrom-Miller approach working in combination, and the lessons learned. |
| Keywords: | experiential learning, microeconomics, mobile devices, classroom experiments, classEx |
| JEL: | A22 C72 C90 D00 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1584&r=cta |
| By: | Cordero, Martha |
| Abstract: | Este documento es de carácter bianual, y su finalidad es mostrar el estado actual de la integración centroamericana en el ámbito económico y comercial. El documento se divide en dos capítulos. En el primero se hace un recuento general de la integración centroamericana desde su formación, en la década de 1970, hasta la última reunión de Presidentes y Jefes de Gobierno de junio de 2017. Su objetivo es ofrecer al lector un marco general del proceso, de sus metas, de su organización, de sus ámbitos de aplicación y de sus principales instrumentos. En el segundo capítulo se analiza la evolución de la integración comercial centroamericana. Esta parte abarca los temas de comercio intrarregional, unión aduanera, transporte, turismo e inversión. Haciendo uso de los datos estadísticos disponibles, se busca ofrecer un panorama del grado actual de integración comercial subregional y de su evolución en los últimos años. |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col094:42231&r=cta |
| By: | Florian W. Bartholomae; Chang Woon Nam; Alina Schoenberg |
| Abstract: | Weimar achieved urban recovery as a ‘consumer city’ with sub-brandings like a population magnet with a high living-quality, a cultural city with touristic attractions, and a university city. Its intensive cultural promotion policies combined with urban regeneration programs have contributed to the recent demographic and economic growth. This study demonstrates this success and investigates its sectoral weaknesses compared to other German cities. Weimar needs an optimal mixture of consumption- and production-oriented development strategies to rectify the current structural imbalances and better control those negative impacts caused by a rapidly ageing population. Besides ample presence and intact connectivity of high-tech industries and producer services within a city which enhance R&D, innovation and productivity, Weimar should more seriously consider, when design-ing future development policy, that both urban growth approaches are interrelated: agglomeration generates higher income for the creative class, whereas high urban amenities attract young creative entrepreneurs selecting locations for start-ups. |
| Keywords: | urban resurgence consumer city, Weimar, East Germany, post-industrial transformation, population magnet, modern industries and services |
| JEL: | P25 O14 O38 R11 H76 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6610&r=cta |
| By: | Raab, Roman (European Commission – JRC) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses panel data from the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to study the effect of care-giving on retirement. The findings suggest that care- and support-giving contributes to the retirement decision, in particular for men. While the frequency of care activities is more influential in the male retirement decision, the most important factor for both genders turns out to be out-of-household care. |
| Keywords: | informal care-giving, retirement, economics of aging, panel data |
| JEL: | I19 J26 J22 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrs:wpaper:201708&r=cta |
| By: | Rajeswari Sengupta (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Harsh Vardhan (Bain and Company) |
| Abstract: | Growing non-performing assets is a recurrent problem in the Indian banking sector. Over the past two decades, there have been two such episodes when the banking sector was severely impaired by balance sheet problems. In this paper we do a comparative analysis of the two banking crisis episodes-the one in the late 1990s and one that started in the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and is yet to be resolved. We describe the macroeconomic and banking environment preceding the episodes, the degree and nature of the crises and also discuss the policy responses that have been undertaken. We conclude by drawing policy lessons from this discussion and suggest some measures that can be adopted to better deal with a future balance sheet related crisis in the banking sector such that the impact on the real economy is minimal. |
| Keywords: | Non-performing assets, Public-sector banks, Capital adequacy, Bank recapitalisation, Balance-sheet crisis |
| JEL: | G21 G28 E44 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2017-019&r=cta |
| By: | Bozhinov, Viktor (University of Mainz); Koch, Christopher (University of Mainz); Schank, Thorsten (University of Mainz) |
| Abstract: | In Germany, an intensive public debate about increasing female participation in leadership positions started in 2009 and proceeded until the beginning of 2015, when the German parliament enacted a board gender quota. In that period, the share of women on supervisory boards for 111 German publicly listed and fully codetermined companies (i.e. those which are affected by the quota law) more than doubled from 10.6 percent in 2009 to 22.6 percent in 2015. In 2016, the first year when the law was effective, the female share increased again by 4.5 percentage points. Using a hand-collected dataset, we investigate whether the rise in female board representation was accompanied by a change in gender differences in board member characteristics and board involvement. We do not find evidence for the "Golden Skirts" phenomenon, i.e., the rise in the female share was not achieved via a few female directors holding multiple board memberships. After controlling for firm heterogeneity, the remuneration of female shareholder (employee) representatives is about 16 (9) percent lower than for males. We interpret this as an overall indication that women are not only underrepresented in German supervisory boards, they are even more underrepresented in important board positions. Indeed, women are less likely to become a chairman and are less often assigned to board committees (except for the nominating committee). Moreover, in 2016 the disadvantage of women (as compared to men) to obtain a committee membership is even larger than in 2009. |
| Keywords: | gender diversity, women on boards, gender quota, board remuneration, committee membership |
| JEL: | G34 G38 J16 J30 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11057&r=cta |
| By: | OKAMURA Kazuaki; ISLAM Nizamul |
| Abstract: | In this study, we estimate the effects of childbirth on female labour supply by using Japanese data. The novel contributions of our study are twofold. Firstly, we include the effects of unobserved preferences on female labour supply. Secondly, we apply a dynamic version of the sequential matching approach to analyse the causal effects of childbirth on female labour market outcomes. The estimated results show that childbirth decreases current employment outcomes (participation in regular and non-regular work) and that this decrease is larger for regular employees than for non-regular employees. On the timing of childbirth, while the negative effects of childbirth on regular work increase by delaying the age at childbirth, these negative effects on non-regular employment slightly decrease by delaying the age at childbirth. On future employment outcomes, childbirth does not affect the probability of choosing non-regular work in the next period regardless of childbearing age. By contrast, delayed childbirth decreases the probability of choosing regular work in the next period significantly. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic Treatment Approach; Sequential Matching Method |
| JEL: | C21 C25 J21 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2017-14&r=cta |
| By: | Ivo Bischoff (University of Kassel); Eva Wolfschuetz (University of Kassel) |
| Abstract: | We use a hazard model to identify the factors that drive the emergence of inter-municipal cooperation (IMC). We focus on IMC in tasks of internal administration in West-Germany between 2001 and 2014 – tasks where IMC may generate economies of scale while regional spillovers are negligible. Our results support the homophily-hypothesis and the relevance of political transaction costs. Municipalities situated in clusters of small and shrinking municipalities are more likely to start IMC. At odds with the previous literature, IMC is more likely to emerge among municipalities in fiscally strong clusters. We find no evidence that IMC is more likely in certain phases of the election cycle while state subsidies for IMC are an important driving force behind IMC. |
| Keywords: | Inter-municipal cooperation, hazard model, Germany, survey |
| JEL: | H77 D72 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201744&r=cta |
| By: | Creedy, John; Gemmell, Norman |
| Abstract: | Jenkins and Lambert (1997) demonstrated that a number of measures of poverty could be combined and compared using the "Three Is of Poverty" (TIP) curve; the ‘three Is’ being the incidence, intensity and inequality of poverty. This paper takes the insights from the TIP curve and applies them to income growth based measures of mobility, proposing a "Three Is of Mobility", or TIM, curve. Similar analysis is then applied to re-ranking measures of mobility to yield a re-ranking ratio (RRR) curve. Illustrations are provided using income data from random samples of New Zealand income taxpayers over the period 1998 to 2010. It is argued that both curves represent simple graphical devices that nevertheless conveniently illustrate the "Three Is" properties of income mobility. |
| Keywords: | Income mobility, TIP curve, New Zealand, TIM curve, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcpf:6693&r=cta |
| By: | Pavel, Ciaian (European Commission – JRC); d'Artis, Kancs (European Commission – JRC); Miroslava, Rajcaniova (Department of Economic Policy Faculty of Economics and Management Slovak University of Agriculture) |
| Abstract: | This study empirically examines interdependencies between BitCoin and altcoin markets in the short- and long-run. We apply time-series analytical mechanisms to daily data of 17 virtual currencies (BitCoin + 16 alternative virtual currencies) and two Altcoin price indices for the period 2013-2016. Our empirical findings confirm that indeed BitCoin and Altcoin markets are interdependent. The BitCoin-Altcoin price relationship is significantly stronger in the short-run than in the long-run. We cannot fully confirm the hypothesis that the BitCoin price relationship is stronger with those Altcoins that are more similar in their price formation mechanism to BitCoin. In the long-run, macro-financial indicators determine the altcoin price formation to a greater degree than BitCoin does. The virtual currency supply is exogenous and therefore plays only a limited role in the price formation. |
| Keywords: | BitCoin, altcoins, virtual currencies, price formation, supply, demand, macroeconomic development |
| JEL: | E31 E42 G12 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrs:wpaper:201705&r=cta |
| By: | Unger, Florian; Flach, Lisandra |
| Abstract: | We show that the effect of fixed costs on international trade is lower in industries with a high degree of vertical product differentiation. We extend an international trade model by endogenous quality investmetns and use both aggregate trade data and firm-level data to estimate gravity equations of exports. Accounting for quality lowers the positive gains from trade and leads to more heterogeneous effects across industries compared to a trade model without quality. |
| JEL: | F12 F14 L11 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168268&r=cta |
| By: | Walker, Ian; Zhu, Yu |
| Abstract: | We study the labour market wage outcomes of university graduates by course (i.e. by subject and institution) in the UK using the Labour Force Survey (LFS). We match this data to a measure of course “selectivity” (the mean standardised admission scores at the course level) using data on high school achievement scores of students admitted to these courses. Unlike earlier UK studies, we are able to consider the effect of differences across undergraduate degree subjects, and in particular the selectivity of both the subject studied and of the Higher Education Institution (HEI) attended. Our results show that selectivity of undergraduate degree programmes plays an important role in explaining the variation in the relative graduate wages across HEIs and subjects. In fact, much of the observed differential in relative wage outcomes across courses is due to the quality of students that HEIs select. That is not to say that the effect of course selectivity on wages implies that degrees are just signals of existing ability differences. |
| Keywords: | College selectivity,relative returns to higher education |
| JEL: | I23 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:133&r=cta |
| By: | Natalia Shmatko (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alina Lavrynenko (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Dirk Meissner (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The paper explores the composition of researchers' skillsets in an innovation-driven environment from the perspective of employers. The authors analyze the relation between skills requirements described in job advertisements for researchers and the presumed innovation culture of companies. The study is based on job advertisements content analysis and in-depth interviews with chiefs of research and development companies. It uses biotechnology industry as an example as it is one of the fastest-growing and innovation-driven sectors globally. Authors used data from Russian, as well as Canadian, UK and USA job search engines to consider international context. Empirical findings demonstrated that skills composition stress on hard skills more frequently and detailed, while soft skills are often a "must have without saying". The same is for digital skills that are assumed to be essential in high-tech companies globally and therefore not fully specified in job ads. There is a certain mismatch between skills presented in the ads and articulated in the interviews as employers tend to demonstrate innovation-friendly company culture for possible applicants. The present paper enriches literature on skills assessment, giving comprehensive lists of biotech skills in-demand divided into soft and hard categories. In addition, it provides the new insight into employee skills articulated by the companies as a strong element of organizational innovation climate |
| Keywords: | knowledge economy, open innovation, company innovation culture, biotechnology, skills |
| JEL: | J24 L65 M14 M51 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:74sti2017&r=cta |
| By: | Albert Y. Liu; Stephen Lipscomb; Alexander Johann |
| Abstract: | This research compares English learner students with disabilities to other students with disabilities and other English learners in secondary school on measures linked to post–high school outcomes, using the National Longitudinal Transition Study 2012. |
| Keywords: | English learner students with disabilities, English learners, Students with disabilities, National Longitudinal Transition Study 2012, Secondary school |
| JEL: | I J |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:d9b2372951bc44ac9732423ed187f3d1&r=cta |
| By: | Albrecht Glitz; Erik Meyersson |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the economic returns to industrial espionage by linking information from East Germany’s foreign intelligence service to sector-specific gaps in total factor productivity (TFP) between West and East Germany. Based on a dataset that comprises the entire flow of information provided by East German informants over the period 1970-1989, we document a significant narrowing of sectoral West-to-East TFP gaps as a result of East Germany’s industrial espionage. This central finding holds across a wide range of specifications and is robust to the inclusion of several alternative proxies for technology transfer. We further demonstrate that the economic returns to industrial espionage are primarily driven by relatively few high quality pieces of information and particularly strong in sectors that were closer to the West German technological frontier. Based on our findings, we estimate that the average TFP gap between West and East Germany at the end of the Cold War would have been 6.3 percentage points larger had the East not engaged in industrial espionage. |
| Keywords: | espionage, productivity, R&D, technology diffusion |
| JEL: | D24 F52 N34 N44 O30 O47 P26 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6525&r=cta |
| By: | The program team is led by Mathematica Policy Research; in collaboration with the National Committee for Quality Assurance Center for Health Care Strategies. |
| Abstract: | This chart pack is a product of the Medicaid/CHIP Health Care Quality Measures Technical Assistance and Analytic Support Program, sponsored by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. |
| Keywords: | Medicaid, Child Core Set, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Department of Health and Human Services, CHIP, CHIPRA, Health Care Quality Measures, Affordable Care Act, Chart Pack |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:e971edcb219342739d36c804e6345089&r=cta |
| By: | Björn Felten; Christoph Weber (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen (Campus Essen)) |
| Abstract: | Residential heat pumps are one of the most resource-efficient means for space heating. Their market shares are prospected to rise substantially within the next decades. By installing a thermal energy storage, the operation of heat pumps is – to a certain extent - decoupled from heat demand. Such flexibility is frequently claimed to bear high potentials for demand side management. In this study, we investigate the operational cost savings achievable through such a flexibility option using a dynamic model of the coupled building and heating system combined with model predictive economic control strategies. We derive several model predictive control strategies based on real-time prices for a heat pump in combination with a thermal energy storage supplying a floor-heated building. The algorithms are applied using perfect and imperfect foresight. Furthermore different variations of real-time prices are investigated, considering both historic and future years. Also the markets considered and the level and structure of end consumer charges (being a substantial part of the electricity price) are varied. The obtained operational cost savings are contrasted with different paths of investment cost developments. Results show that – even under optimistic conditions – investments in flexibility measures (additional storage capacity, etc.) are not economically viable. |
| Keywords: | Heat Pump, Model Predictive Control, Real-Time Pricing, Demand Side Management |
| JEL: | C61 Q32 Q48 L94 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dui:wpaper:1709&r=cta |
| By: | Mathematica Staff |
| Abstract: | This toolkit compiles a set of guides and resource documents to help users progress through the steps of the VR Program Evaluation Coach online tool (www.VREvalCoach.com). |
| Keywords: | vocational, vr, online, toolkit |
| JEL: | I J |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:a3b978b7b77f4f91921e1d718cc268f8&r=cta |
| By: | Gazeley, Ian (University of Sussex); Holmes, Rose (University of Sussex); Newell, Andrew T. (University of Sussex); Reynolds, Kevin (University of Sussex); Gutierrez Rufrancos, Hector (University of Sussex) |
| Abstract: | We estimate calories available to workers' households in the USA, Belgium, Britain, France and Germany in 1890/1. We employ data from the United States Commissioner of Labor survey (see Haines, 1979) of workers in key export industries. We estimate that households in the USA, on average, had about five hundred daily calories per equivalent adult more than their French and German counterparts, with Belgian and British workers closer to the USA levels. We ask if that energy bonus gave the US workers more energy for work, and we conclude that, if stature is taken into account, workers in the US and UK probably had roughly the same level energy available for work, whereas the German and French workers most likely had significantly less. Finally we ask economic migration leads to taller children. To answer that we estimate the influence of children on calorie availability among ethnically British workers in the USA and, separately, among British workers in Britain. We find that US-based British households are at least as generous in terms of the provision of calories to their children as their Britain-based counterparts. Other things equal, this means that US-based British children would grow taller. |
| Keywords: | living standards, nutrition, international comparisons, migration |
| JEL: | J11 J61 N30 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11037&r=cta |
| By: | Breugel, Gerla van |
| Abstract: | The effectiveness and efficiency of a national vocational education and training (VET) system depends, amongst others, on whether it provides its learners with the required skills now and in the future. These requirements have changed over the last decades and they are expected to change again in the future. National VET systems need to adapt to these changes in time to avoid costly skill mismatches as not having the right skills means lower wages and lower job satisfaction for workers, lower productivity and more hiring costs for employers, and lower economic output for the economy as a whole. Skill mismatches are omnipresent in developed countries: on average 45% of workers in 27 EU countries reported being under- or over-skilled in 2010. Skill mismatches can be reduced by certain policies, however these depend heavily on information about current and future demand for and supply of skills and corresponding mismatches. Therefore, this report gives an overview of the current mechanisms used by international institutions and developed countries to identify and anticipate the skills requirements of firms, and furthermore it shows how this information is then used for policy development and communication. Special attention is given to the identification and anticipation of skills of individuals with a Vocational Education and Training (VET) background, either at secondary or tertiary level. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:42233&r=cta |
| By: | Pajarinen, Mika; Rouvinen, Petri; Ylhäinen, Ilkka |
| Abstract: | International literature suggests that productivity growth of the global frontier firms – those in the best five percent – has diverged from the others during the 2000s (Andrews et al. 2016). We study this issue using Finnish firm-level data. We find that the productivity of the Finnish frontier firms does not diverge from the others to such a degree as in the international comparisons. The findings do not provide clear evidence of a slowdown in the diffusion process. We also analyze whether frontier firms are associated with characteristics related to digitalization – and do not find clear evidence of that either. This might be related to the fact that the employed measures are related to technology adoption – not to the creativity or efficiency of its use. |
| Keywords: | Productivity, divergence, diffusion, digitalization, Finland |
| JEL: | D22 O30 O40 |
| Date: | 2017–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:77&r=cta |
| By: | Ian Dew-Becker; Charles G. Nathanson |
| Abstract: | We study an ambiguity-averse agent with uncertainty about income dynamics who chooses what aspects of the income process to learn about. The agent chooses to learn most about income dynamics at the very lowest frequencies, which have the greatest effect on utility. Deviations of consumption from the full-information benchmark are then largest at high frequencies, so consumption responds strongly to predictable changes in income in the short-run but is closer to a random walk in the long-run. Whereas ambiguity aversion typically leads agents to act as though shocks are more persistent than the truth, endogenous learning here eliminates that effect. |
| JEL: | C14 D83 E21 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23917&r=cta |
| By: | Kressner, Alexander; Schimmelpfeng, Katja |
| Abstract: | The sound management of operating rooms is a very important task in each hospital. To use this crucial resource efficiently, cyclic master surgery schedules are often developed. To derive sensible schedules, high-quality input data are necessary. In this paper, we focus on the (elective) surgical procedures' stochastic durations to determine reasonable, cyclically scheduled surgical clusters. Therefore, we adapt the approach of van Oostrum et al (2008), which was specifically designed for clustering surgical procedures for master surgical scheduling, and present a two-stage solution approach that consists of a new construction heuristic and an improvement heuristic. We conducted a numerical study based on real-world data from a German hospital. The results reveal clusters with considerably reduced variability compared to those of van Oostrum et al(2008). |
| Keywords: | master surgery scheduling (MSS),stochastic surgery duration,surgery types,clustering |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohdps:282017&r=cta |
| By: | Mitchell, Olivia S.; Keim, Donald B. |
| Abstract: | The growth and popularity of defined contribution pensions, along with the government's increasing attention to retirement plan costs and investment choices provided, make it important to understand how people select their retirement plan investments. This paper shows how employees in a large firm altered their fund allocations when the employer streamlined its pension fund menu and deleted nearly half of the offered funds. Using administrative data, we examine the changes in plan participant investment choices that resulted from the streamlining and how these changes might affect participants' eventual retirement wellbeing. We show that streamlined participants' new allocations exhibited significantly lower within-fund turnover rates and expense ratios, and we estimate this could lead to aggregate savings for these participants over a 20-year period of $20.2M, or in excess of $9,400 per participant. Moreover, after the reform, streamlined participants' portfolios held significantly less equity and exhibited significantly lower risks by way of reduced exposures to most systematic risk factors, compared to their non-streamlined counterparts. |
| Keywords: | retirement saving,default investment,pension,portfolio allocation,choice overload |
| JEL: | J32 D14 G11 E21 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:573&r=cta |
| By: | Anna Comacchio (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Maddalena Campioni (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Mauro Bonin (Health and Social Care, Regional Direction, Veneto Region) |
| Abstract: | Raising challenges and reducing resources in the healthcare sector, have put performance management center stage. Recent debate has, on the one hand, highlighted the negative effects of this increasingly diffuse management approach, on the other hand, more emphasis has been placed on the need to move from performance measurement to performance management and to better integrate it with strategic planning. From this stand point a body of studies focused on the replacement of traditional accounting system by multidimensional frameworks and more specifically by the Balance scorecard. The paper investigates the role of balance scorecard in the healthcare sector and how this multidimensional framework might help to effectively link strategy and performance management, for a more comprehensive and strategic management of healthcare organizations in a fast moving environment. The paper provides empirical evidence, through a case study, on the role that a multidimensional approach such as the one delivered by the Balance scorecard can have to help organization and managers to move from measuring the past to strategically framing challenges. |
| Keywords: | balance scorecard, organizational innovation, healthcare sector, performance management |
| JEL: | L25 L30 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vnm:wpdman:148&r=cta |
| By: | Michael Lipsitz; Alexandre Belloni; Victor Chernozhukov; Iv\'an Fern\'andez-Val |
| Abstract: | The R package quantreg.nonpar implements nonparametric quantile regression methods to estimate and make inference on partially linear quantile models. quantreg.nonpar obtains point estimates of the conditional quantile function and its derivatives based on series approximations to the nonparametric part of the model. It also provides pointwise and uniform confidence intervals over a region of covariate values and/or quantile indices for the same functions using analytical and resampling methods. This paper serves as an introduction to the package and displays basic functionality of the functions contained within. |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1610.08329&r=cta |
| By: | Costa Font, Joan (London School of Economics); Ljunge, Martin (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | The association between occupational status and health has been taken to reveal the presence of health inequalities shaped by occupational status. However, that interpretation assumes no influence of health status in explaining occupational standing. This paper documents evidence of non-negligible returns to occupation status on health (which we refer to as the ‘healthy worker effect’). We use a unique empirical strategy that addressed reverse causality, namely an instrumental variable strategy using the variation in average health in the migrant’s country of origin, a health measure plausibly not determined by the migrant’s occupational status. Our findings suggest that health status exerts significant effects on occupational status in several dimensions; having a supervising role, worker autonomy, and worker influence. The effect size of health is larger than that of an upper secondary education. |
| Keywords: | Occupational status; Self-reported health; Immigrants; Work autonomy; Supervising role |
| JEL: | I18 J50 |
| Date: | 2017–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1183&r=cta |
| By: | SUZUKI, Aya; MANO, Yukichi; ABEBE, Girum |
| Abstract: | While labor-intensive export-oriented industries typically bring positive economic benefits to countries through employment generation, the effects of these industries on various aspects of workers’ welfare have not been formally studied very well. This paper considers the case of the cut flower industry in Ethiopia to provide such quantitative evidences. Based on the propensity-score matching and doubly robust estimations to facilitate rigorous comparisons, we find that production workers in the cut flower sector earn significantly more than similar workers in other sectors, most probably due to the flower farms’ interest to reduce costly worker turnovers. In addition, the cut flower industry workers save more regularly than workers in other sectors who have similar characteristics, and the amount saved relative to the income level is also higher, after controlling for the frequency of wage payment and employment status. The subjective valuation of their jobs is also higher in the cut flower sector, particularly in terms of the income level, stability, and future prospect, but they are not necessarily more satisfied with the type of work they do. Risk-averse individuals are more satisfied in the cut flower sector and age is rewarded more, while work experience and math skills tend to reduce satisfaction levels more in the sector at this level of unskilled production workers. |
| Keywords: | Labor-intensive sector, Wage differential, Savings, Job satisfaction, Ethiopia |
| JEL: | J31 O12 O14 O19 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-55&r=cta |
| By: | Antonia López-Villavicencio (Univ Lyon, Université Lyon 2, GATE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France); Marc Pourroy (University of Poitiers, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of two monetary policy strategies in the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). To this end, we employ propensity score matching and consider the adoption of a target by a country as a treatment to find suitable counterfactuals to the actual targeters. By controlling for self-selection bias and endogeneity of the monetary policy regime, we show that inflation target has helped in reducing the ERPT, with older regimes more successful than younger ones. However, a de facto flexible exchange rate regime has not noticeable advantages to reduce the extent to which exchange rate fluctuations contribute to inflation instability. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate pass-through, inflation targeting, exchange rate regime, propensity score matching |
| JEL: | E31 E42 E52 C30 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:1728&r=cta |
| By: | Sanghmitra S Acharya; Gobinda C Pal |
| Abstract: | In the context of the post-2015 development, every country is expected to work towards achieving the SDGs through various programmes. It is significant to understand the ‘means of implementation’ and ‘implementation gaps and challenges’ with regard to these programmes. This paper examines two social protection interventions in India linked to the economic and social pillars of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), those of poverty alleviation through the Employment Guarantee Scheme and universal healthcare through selected programmes. The paper examines issues including the integration and mainstreaming of the programmes into the SDGs implementation process; coordination, management, leadership, stakeholders’ participation, accountability, monitoring and financing; and implementationrelated gaps and challenges. Evidence suggests that the implementation of the programmes faces strategic-, engagement- and evaluation-related challenges. It remains a challenge to equitably meet the needs of different sections of population with common strategies. The lack of participatory planning, accountability and monitoring at local level remain critical. Evaluation challenges also exist in understanding the reality of implementation in a more evidence-based manner. The means of implementation, thus, need to be strengthened through increased partnership between stakeholders in planning, convergence and coordination of different interventions, diversification of resources, and greater sharing of knowledge on the SDGs. |
| Keywords: | India, social protection programme, means of implementation (MoI), SDG implementation challenges, employment guarantee scheme, Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svo:opaper:40&r=cta |
| By: | Mehmet Arda |
| Abstract: | Monitoring the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires a considerable amount of data. Regardless of their level of development, most countries’ statistical services demand some adaptation or improvement in an attempt to reduce, to the greatest possible extent, the current lacunae in information. In Turkey, one area that requires particular improvement is data disaggregation, especially according to social groupings, and along a rural-urban distinction that reflects a more functional understanding of this distinction. Administrative data collected during the delivery of governmental services could provide substantial amounts of relevant information; however, at present such collection processes are neither regular nor systematic. Ensuring consistency and continuity in the collection, measurement and definitions of data, as well as promoting improvements in the formulation of survey questions, could go a long way to improving the availability of information in Turkey, both for SDG monitoring and for the general design and implementation of policies and measures. While Turkey intends to follow the SDG Monitoring Road Map being developed by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), important work by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) on developing a Wellbeing Index is an already significant step forward towards improving the SDG monitoring in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, data disaggregation, SDG implementation monitoring, Wellbeing Index, Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svo:opaper:38&r=cta |
| By: | Piatek, Rémi (University of Copenhagen); Gensowski, Miriam (University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | We develop a parametrization of the multinomial probit model that yields greater insight into the underlying decision-making process, by decomposing the error terms of the utilities into latent factors and noise. The latent factors are identified without a measurement system, and they can be meaningfully linked to an economic model. We provide sufficient conditions that make this structure identified and interpretable. For inference, we design a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler based on marginal data augmentation. A simulation exercise shows the good numerical performance of our sampler and reveals the practical importance of alternative identification restrictions. Our approach can generally be applied to any setting where researchers can specify an a priori structure on a few drivers of unobserved heterogeneity. One such example is the choice of combinations of two options, which we explore with real data on education and occupation pairs. |
| Keywords: | multinomial probit, latent factors, Bayesian analysis, marginal data augmentation, educational choice, occupational choice |
| JEL: | C11 C25 C35 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11042&r=cta |
| By: | León Tamayo, Dorian Fernando; Moreno, Jose Luis |
| Abstract: | The capability approach developed by Sen represents a proposal for the evaluation of individual well-being and social development centered on people and away - but not exclusive- of materiality. In the present article describes the capability approach developed by Sen and examines the importance for the evaluation of human development. |
| Keywords: | capability approach,Sen's capability approach,functioning,Amartya Sen |
| JEL: | I31 I32 D63 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:169373&r=cta |
| By: | The program team is led by Mathematica Policy Research; in collaboration with the National Committee for Quality Assurance Center for Health Care Strategies. |
| Abstract: | This chart pack is a product of the Medicaid/CHIP Health Care Quality Measures Technical Assistance and Analytic Support Program, sponsored by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. |
| Keywords: | Medicaid, Adult Core Set, Health Care Quality Measures, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Department of Health and Human Services, Affordable Care Act, Chart Pack |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:276758d5bc3e4a8d86556368fb47fd14&r=cta |
| By: | Samuel Bentolila; J. Ignacio García-Pérez; Marcel Jansen |
| Abstract: | Long-term unemployment reached unprecedented levels in Spain in the wake of the Great Recession and it still affects around 57% of the unemployed. We document the sources that contributed to the rise in long-term unemployment and analyze its persistence using state-of-the-art duration models. We find pervasive evidence of negative duration dependence, while personal characteristics such as mature age, lack of experience, and entitlement to unemployment benefits are key to understand the cross-sectional differences in the incidence of long-term unemployment. The negative impact of low levels of skill and education is muted by the large share of temporary contracts, but once we restrict attention to employment spells lasting at least one month these factors also contribute to a higher risk of long-term unemployment. Surprisingly, workers from the construction sector do not fare worse than similar workers from other sectors. Finally, self-reported reservation wages are found to respond strongly to the cycle, but much less to individual unemployment duration. In view of these findings, we argue that active labour market policies should play a more prominent role in the fight against long-term unemployment while early activation should be used to curb inflows. |
| Keywords: | long-term unemployment, great recession, duration models, survival probability, Spain |
| JEL: | J63 J64 J65 C41 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6338&r=cta |
| By: | Will, Matthias Georg |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we run regression analyses to explain voluntary turnover intentions with data from more than 5,000 employees and with about 250 explanatory variables. The findings of our multi-factor approach highlight the fact that previous empirical research might have over-estimated the impact and significance of many factors. We show the relevance of the so-called omitted variable bias to our findings and present an empirical approach to gain estimations that are more accurate. Our approach can estimate in detail the relevance of different factors from the following categories: (a) employees’ satisfaction, (b) industry, (c) firm size, (d) status and position, (e) commuting and working hours, (f) income, incentives and fairness, (g) career development, (h) health, (j) political orientation, (k) demographics, and (l) personality traits. |
| Keywords: | Voluntary Turnover,SOEP,Regression,Econometrics,Fluktuation,SOEP,Regressionsanalyse,Ökonometrie |
| JEL: | J28 J63 C13 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201701&r=cta |
| By: | Shaker, Saber Adly |
| Abstract: | The main aim of this paper is to discuss the cultural dimensions of international trade in case of AGADIR agreement countries. The main finding is that although there is a weak correlation between genetic distance as an indicator of cultural distance and both of total visible exports and cultural goods exports. But Egypt is in the first rank in the degree of correlation. Thus, the paper analyzed the impact of cultural distance on the Egyptian exports of both total visible exports and cultural goods exports with the major trade partners which categorized into income criterion. The main results are: first, genetic distance as an indicator of cultural distance has a negative significant impact in the case of low-income partners. Second, the Egyptian exports increase with Islamic countries. |
| Keywords: | Cultural goods – Ginatic distance – AGADIR agreement |
| JEL: | F10 F15 F19 Z1 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81761&r=cta |
| By: | Kessler, Anke; Milligan, Kevin |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the influence of cultural norms on economic outcomes. We combine detailed information on second-generation female immigrants with historical data from their ancestral source country to see how the cultural endowment received from their fathers affects current decisions. Our results show that education plays a critical role in cultural transmission: lower-educated women exhibit a strong influence of cultural variables while higher-educated women show no influence at all. |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J61 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168299&r=cta |
| By: | Köppl-Turyna, Monika |
| Abstract: | We test several hypotheses concerning the growth of public expenditure by the Austrian monarchy between 1870 and 1913 in relation to Wagner's law, as well as the impact of increasing public indebtedness and the expanding role of the Imperial Council towards the end of the analyzed period, using the bounds testing approach and Granger-causality analysis. We find evidence for Wagner's law in the case of public investment, but not general public expenditure. Increases in general public expenditure were mostly driven by the public debt, rather than by increasing national income. We do not find evidence that institutional reforms by the Imperial Council changed the trends in public expenditure. |
| Keywords: | Imperial Austria,Wagner's law,public expenditure |
| JEL: | N13 N43 H50 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:agawps:11&r=cta |
| By: | Paschmann, Martin (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, benefits resulting from the interaction of electric vehicles and photovoltaic generation units are analyzed. In doing so, a bottom-up approach is developed to simulate the driving and charging behavior of electric vehicles. An economic analysis is then performed to determine key findings for households with photovoltaic systems and electric vehicles: First, smart electric vehicle charging concepts may allow households to achieve higher cost-saving potentials by increasing their share of self-consumption by 59% compared to the case of uncontrolled charging. Second, adopting more of a system-oriented perspective, smart electric vehicle charging concepts could react to times of peak load and thereby reduce the average peak-load increase due to electric vehicles to 27%. According to these findings, it may be beneficial for policy makers to encourage peak-load minimizing charging behavior by introducing, e.g., load-sensitive tariff schemes. Technical challenges arising from the peak-load impact of electric vehicles may be regarded as being a coordination problem. Finally, the analysis shows that the potential of electric vehicles to counteract extremes of reverse power lows due to high photovoltaic electricity generation is limited. |
| Keywords: | Electromobility; distributed energy resources; energy storage; electric vehicle charging; sector coupling; energy self-sufficiency |
| JEL: | C15 C61 C63 D14 H20 R20 |
| Date: | 2017–10–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2017_011&r=cta |
| By: | Andrei S. Gonçalves; Chen Xue; Lu Zhang |
| Abstract: | Two innovations in the structural investment model go a long way in explaining value and momentum jointly. Firm-level investment returns are constructed from firm-level accounting variables, and are then aggregated to the portfolio level to match with portfolio-level stock returns. In addition, current assets form a separate production input besides physical capital. The model fits well the value, momentum, investment, and profitability premiums jointly, and partially explains the positive stock-investment return correlations, the procyclicality and short-term dynamics of the momentum and profitability premiums, and the countercyclicality and long-term dynamics of the value and investment premiums. However, the model fails to explain momentum crashes. |
| JEL: | E13 E22 G12 G14 G31 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23910&r=cta |
| By: | Samiksha Agarwal; Lekha S. Chakraboty |
| Abstract: | The paper attempts to measure the incidence of corporate income tax in India under a general equilibrium setting. Using seemingly uncorrelated regression coefficients and dynamic panel estimates, we tried to analyze both the relative burden of corporate tax borne by capital and labor and the efficiency effects of corporate income tax. The data for the study is compiled from corporate firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) for the period 2000-15. Our empirical estimates suggest that in India capital bears more of the burden of corporate taxes than labor. Though it is contrary to the Harberger (1962) hypothesis that the burden of corporate tax is shifted to labor rather than capital, it confirms the existing empirical results in the context of India. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Tax; Tax Incidence; Capital; Labor |
| JEL: | C33 H22 H25 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_898&r=cta |
| By: | Luisito Bertinelli (CREA, Université du Luxembourg); Arnaud Bourgain (CREA, Université du Luxembourg); "Abdoul Karim Diamoutene, University of Social Sciences and Management of Bamako, Mali " (University of Social Sciences and Management of Bamako, Mali) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the tax burden borne by a large number of Malian companies (3 474) representing the totality of the formal sector of this country. By exploiting individual firm information collected from financial statements and balance sheets, we highlight determinants of effective tax rates such as firm’s size, industry, location or other corporate attributes. Our study is in line with the surge for more transparency in national fiscal practices. |
| Keywords: | Effective Tax Rate; Corporate income Tax; Taxation in Sub-Saharan Africa; Tax exemption, |
| JEL: | H25 O17 O55 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:17-18&r=cta |
| By: | James P. Gander |
| Abstract: | Using traditional Cournot demand concepts, the effect of an increase in export demand on the price and domestic quantity demanded for a given product under different market structures and production cost structures is examined. In general, an increase in the product price will result in a reduction in the domestic quantity demanded. This is the case of “Crowding Out” (CO), analogous to that found in macroeconomics loanable funds analysis. An explicit algebraic simple model is developed for different cost structures; for which is derived several indexes of “CO”. These indexes will reflect the different market structures by “n”, the number of firms in the industry. With these indexes, different export trade sceneries are demonstrated and discussed. One significant result is that for the decreasing cost case, there is the opposite effect, “Crowding In”. Some implications of “CO” for international trade policy are discussed briefly. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uta:papers:2017_07&r=cta |
| By: | Vorobyev, Oleg Yu. |
| Abstract: | The aim of the paper is the axiomatic justification of the theory of experience and chance, one of the dual halves of which is the Kolmogorov probability theory. The author’s main idea was the natural inclusion of Kolmogorov’s axiomatics of probability theory in a number of general concepts of the theory of experience and chance. The analogy between the measure of a set and the probability of an event has become clear for a long time. This analogy also allows further evolution: the measure of a set is completely analogous to the believability of an event. In order to postulate the theory of experience and chance on the basis of this analogy, you just need to add to the Kolmogorov probability theory its dual reflection — the believability theory, so that the theory of experience and chance could be postulated as the certainty (believability-probability) theory on the Cartesian product of the probability and believability spaces, and the central concept of the theory is the new notion of co~event as a measurable binary relation on the Cartesian product of sets of elementary incomes and elementary outcomes. Attempts to build the foundations of the theory of experience and chance from this general point of view are unknown to me, and the whole range of ideas presented here has not yet acquired popularity even in a narrow circle of specialists; in addition, there was still no complete system of the postulates of the theory of experience and chance free from unnecessary complications. Postulating the theory of experience and chance can be carried out in different ways, both in the choice of axioms and in the choice of basic concepts and relations. If one tries to achieve the possible simplicity of both the system of axioms and the theory constructed from it, then it is hardly possible to suggest anything other than axiomatization of concepts co~event and its certainty (believability-probability). The main result of this work is the axiom co~event, intended for the sake of constructing a theory formed by dual theories of believabilities and probabilities, each of which itself is postulated by its own Kolmogorov system of axioms. Of course, other systems of postulating the theory of experience and chance can be imagined, however, in this work, a preference is given to a system of postulates that is able to describe in the most simple manner the results of what I call an experienced-random experiment. |
| Keywords: | Eventology, event, co~event, experience, chance, to experience, to happen, to occur, theory of experience and chance, theory of co~events, axiom of co~event, probability, believability, certainty (believability-probability), probability theory, believability theory, certainty theory. |
| JEL: | C0 C00 C02 C1 C11 C15 C18 C6 C60 C63 C65 Q0 Q00 Z1 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81892&r=cta |
| By: | Aggeborn, Linuz (Department of Government); Persson, Lovisa (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | We build a public finance model that explains why voters vote for right-wing populists, and also under which conditions established politicians will adopt a right-wing populist policy platform. Voters with lower private income have a stronger demand for basic public services at the expense of spending on a global good; generosity of refugee support systems, foreign aid, and environmental protection. Low income voters are thus more prone to support right-wing populists who oppose spending on such global goods. We conclude that established politicians that are challenged by right-wing populists will implement a policy with no global good spending if the relative cost of the global good is high enough. Additionally, adoption of right-wing populist policy is more likely when the economy is in a recession. |
| Keywords: | Right-wing populism; Agency; Immigration |
| JEL: | D70 D72 H39 |
| Date: | 2017–10–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1182&r=cta |
| By: | Oswald Mashindano; Solomon Baregu |
| Abstract: | This study investigated the progress towards formulating, adopting and implementing Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Tanzania. The 15 years of implementation of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Tanzania proved that the country still needs to do more to eradicate poverty. Inadequate budgetary resources had been one of the major hurdles encountered during MDGs implementation. The present study reveals that dependence on traditional sources of financing had been the major reason for the country’s failure to effectively finance its development agenda. It is therefore recommended that the government explores non-traditional revenue sources for financing of the SDGs such as public-private partnerships (PPPs). Integrating and mainstreaming the SDGs in Tanzania’s national planning process can only be effective by strengthening the capacities of all key players identified in the planning process. Thus, the government and other important stakeholders should develop the capacities of the local government officials and allocate sufficient financial resources for effective mainstreaming and integration of the SDGs to the grassroots level. |
| Keywords: | Tanzania, national-level challenges, SDGs, public-private partnership, monitoring and evaluation, intra-governmental coordination, mainstreaming with national plan |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svo:opaper:31&r=cta |
| By: | Jan Fagerberg (Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture (TIK), University of Oslo & Department of Business and Management, Aalborg University); Bengt-Åke Lundvall (IKE, Department of Business and Management, Aalborg University); Martin Srholec (Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education-Economics Institute (CERGE-EI), Charles University, Prague and Centre for Innovation, Research and Competence in the Learning Economy (CIRCLE), Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with the role of global value chains (GVC) and other aspects of “openness” for economic development. To analyse the issue a comprehensive framework that allows for the inclusion of a range of relevant factors including not only different form of openness, such as GVC participation, but also technological and social capabilities, is developed. The analysis is based on evidence from 125 countries, including many developing nations, over the period 1997-2013. It is shown that economic growth reflects the strength of the national innovation system and that GVC participation is not the potent driver of economic growth that tends to be assumed. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tik:inowpp:20171012&r=cta |
| By: | Thai Do Manh; Williams, Idongesit |
| Abstract: | Purpose - The paper looks at the formulation of the BMGF-VN project to examine which actors participated in the formulation of this project, how their interests were translated into this project, and what lessons may be drawn for the formulation and implementation of universal service policy in Vietnam in general. Design/methodology/approach - The paper recruits the actor network theory and qualitative analysis to analyse the BMGF-VN project. Findings - the involvement of non-government actors in formulating and implementing the project, the focus not only on the supply side but also demand side are very important in formulating and implementing universal service policy. Originality/value - There have been a few studies applying actor network theory in analysing the formulation of policy, especially in universal service. The paper wants to close this gap. |
| Keywords: | stakeholders,actor-network theory,universal service,telecommunications,Vietnam |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsp17:170490&r=cta |
| By: | Vinokurov, Evgeny; Korshunov, Dmitry; Pereboev, Vladimir; Tsukarev, Taras |
| Abstract: | The monograph serves as a full-fledged introduction to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) — its institutions, legal foundation, evolution, and, above all, economic integration issues. The authors focus on the common markets for goods, services, capital, and labour, as well as the EAEU foreign economic policies. They strive to provide a balanced analysis using a variety of approaches. In 300 pages of text, augmented by 50 tables and figures, the authors not only present a plethora of facts on economics and politics of the Union, but also attempt to explain why Eurasian integration processes are evolving in this particular way. Furthermore, they indicate the tasks and problems that the Union may have to deal with over the next 10 years. |
| Keywords: | Eurasian Economic Union, common markets, history of Eurasian integration, regional integration, non-tariff barriers, free trade area, foreign direct investments, trade, labour, China, European Union, post-Soviet states |
| JEL: | E44 E52 F15 F21 F36 F53 J61 O11 O15 |
| Date: | 2017–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82051&r=cta |
| By: | Jovicic, Sonja |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the role of literacy skills as an equalizer in both educational outcomes and educational opportunities. First, by linking two surveys of adult skills for 11 OECD countries (PIAAC - Survey of Adult Skills (conducted in mid-90s) and IALS - International Adult Literacy Survey (conducted in 2011)), the relationship between performance (average literacy test scores) across countries and within-country skill inequality (dispersion in literacy test scores) is examined... |
| JEL: | I21 J62 J68 H52 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168117&r=cta |
| By: | Katsushi S. Imai (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan and School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, UK) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of the transformation of the rural agricultural sector in achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 1, 2 and 10 drawing upon the cross-country panel data over the past four decades for 105 developing countries. We define agricultural transformation by three different indices, namely, (i) the agricultural openness index – the share of agricultural export in agricultural value added of the country, (ii) the commercialization index - the share of processed agricultural products, fruits, green vegetables, and meats in all primary and processed agricultural products, and (iii) the product diversification index to capture the extent to which the country diversify the agricultural production. Drawing upon the dynamic panel model, we have found that transformation of the agricultural sector in terms of agricultural openness has dynamically increased the overall agricultural productivity and its growth and has consequently reduced national, rural and urban poverty significantly. We have also found that agricultural openness tends to significantly alleviate child malnutrition, namely underweight and stunting, and improve food security in terms of energy supply adequacy, protein supply, lack of food deficit and reduction of the prevalence of anaemia among pregnant women. The agricultural openness is found to be negatively associated with the Gini coefficient at both national and subnational levels (for both rural and urban areas). Except for Latin America, product diversification reduces agricultural productivity, implying the efficiency gains from economies of scale of fewer crops. On the other hand, we argue that the commercialisation does not generally increase the agricultural productivity and this may be related to a positive effect of the higher share of cereal production on productivity observed in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. It has been suggested that policies improving the efficiency of agricultural production, for example through better rural infrastructure, or promoting agricultural exports, through regional economic integrations or reducing transaction costs such as tariff and non-tariff barriers, would help to achieve SDGs 1, 2 and 10 indirectly through the productivity improvement. However, a separate policy to support the poorest below the US$1.90 a day poverty line is also necessary for achieving SDG 1. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2017-26&r=cta |
| By: | Bullard, James B. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | St. Louis Fed President James Bullard addressed questions related to real GDP growth in the second half of 2017, inflation surprising to the downside in the first half of 2017 and the impact of strong U.S. labor-market performance on inflation going forward. During a presentation at Truman State University in Kirksville, Mo., he said recent data indicate that U.S. real GDP growth remains consistent with the 2 percent growth “regime” of recent years, adding that growth in the second half of 2017 will probably not move meaningfully above 2 percent. He noted that effects from the hurricanes will add uncertainty to data interpretation in the coming months. On inflation, he said that the downside surprise is unlikely to reverse itself in the second half of 2017. He also said that continued strong performance of labor markets is unlikely to drive inflation meaningfully higher. In terms of monetary policy, he concluded that the current level of the federal funds rate target “is appropriate given current macroeconomic data.” |
| Date: | 2017–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlps:291&r=cta |
| By: | Pietro Moncada Paternò Castello |
| Abstract: | The Thesis is composed by three complementary research investigations on the economic and policy aspects of EU corporate R&D.Collectively, the work first reviews the theoretical and empirical literature of corporate R&D intensity decomposition; it then investigates the EU R&D intensity and its decomposition elements comparatively with most closed competitors and with emerging economies over the period 2005-2013. Finally, it inspects further some key aspects that can be associated to the EU R&D intensity gap: sectoral dynamics and the resulting sectoral and technological specialisations as well as the drivers for R&D investment growth across sectors and firms' age groups of top R&D investing firms over time. These studies also address the possible policy implications that derive from their outcomes.The investigations rely on literature as well as on company data, mainly from nine editions (2006-2014) of the EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard. For analytical purposes they use literature review, meta-analysis, descriptive statistics, R&D intensity decomposition computational approach, Manhattan distance and Technological Revealed Comparative Advantage metrics, and a multinominal logit regression model. The results of these three research works are novel in several aspects. It indicates that literature results on R&D intensity decomposition differ because of data and methodological heterogeneities, and that the structural cause is the main determinant of EU R&D intensity gap if sector compositions of the countries are considered. It inspects how the use of different data sources and analytical methods impact differently on R&D intensity decomposition results, and what the analytical and policy implications are.The empirical research results of this Thesis confirm the structural nature of the EU R&D intensity gap. In the last decade the gap between the EU and the USA has widened, whereas the EU gap with Japan has remained relatively stable. In contrast, the emerging countries' R&D intensity gap compared to the EU has remained relatively stable, while companies from emerging economies are considerably reducing such gap. Besides, as novel contribution to the state of the art of the literature, this Thesis uncovers the differences between EU and US by inspecting which sectors, countries and firms are more accountable for the aggregate R&D intensity performance of these two economies, and it finds a high heterogeneity of firms' R&D intensity within sectors. Furthermore, it shows that there is a bigger population of both larger and smaller US top R&D firms which invest more strongly in R&D than competitors, and that the global R&D investment is concentrated in a few firms, countries and industries. Finally, the research founds a slightly higher EU R&D shift over sectors compared to the US, but not strongly enough towards high-tech sectors. Also, the EU has an even broader technological specialisation than its already broad industrial R&D sector specialisation, while the USA leads by number of technological fields belonging mostly to the industrial R&D sectors of its specialisation. Furthermore, the EU has been better able than the USA and Japan to maintain its world share of R&D investment even during the years of economic and financial crisis. Lastly, the study also indicates that firms make a complementary use of capital expenditures and R&D intensity for their R&D investment growth strategies and it reveals that there are differences in their use between firms' age classes across sectors. Overall, the main results of the Thesis suggest that to reach a more positive R&D dynamics and boost its competitiveness, the EU should adapt its industrial structure and increase the weight of high R&D intensive sectors. A focus on creating the conditions for firm creation and growth in new-emerging innovative sectors is advised together with favouring the exploitation of the full capacity of EU leading - but mature - sectors to also absorb high-technology from other sectors. |
| Keywords: | Corporate R&D intensity decomposition; EU corporate R&D intensity gap; Top world R&D investors; Corporate R&D distribution; Sectors' dynamics; Sector specialisation; Technological specialisation; R&D investment growth; EU industry; EU R&D policy; Literature survey; Empirical analysis |
| Date: | 2017–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/258776&r=cta |
| By: | Brad R. Humphreys; Bruce K. Johnson; John C. Whitehead |
| Abstract: | The contingent valuation method (CV) has long been used to estimate nonmarket values of environmental and other public goods and amenities. Recently, life satisfaction (LS) measures have been used to estimate nonmarket values. This paper empirically compares CV and LS measures of welfare. We elicit willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates for medals won by Canadian athletes and LS measures using Canadian survey data collected before and after the 2010 Winter Olympic Games. These data permit comparative analyses of reliability and validity of CV and LS measures. Both exhibit econometric reliability. CV and LS WTP estimates for medals increases after the Olympics. CV measures of WTP exhibit temporal reliability but LS measures of welfare lack temporal reliability and are significantly greater than CV measures. Key Words: contingent valuation method; life satisfaction method; willingness-to-pay; validity reliability |
| JEL: | C18 C52 D12 D62 I15 Q51 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:17-08&r=cta |
| By: | Ray C. Fair (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Christopher Champa (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Injury rates in twelve U.S. men’s college sports and five U.S. boys’ high school sports are examined in this paper. The sports are categorized as “contact” or “non-contact,” and differences in injury rates between the two are examined. Injury rates in the contact sports are considerably higher than those in the non-contact sports and they are on average more severe. Estimates are presented of the injury savings that would result if the contact sports were changed to have injury rates similar to those in the non-contact sports. The estimated college savings are 49,600 fewer injuries per year and 6,000 fewer years lost-to-injury per year. The estimated high school savings are 601,900 fewer injuries per year and 96,000 fewer years lost-to-injury per year. For concussions the savings are 6,900 per year for college and 161,400 per year for high school. The estimated dollar value (in 2015 dollars) of the total injury savings is between $446 million and $1.5 billion per year for college and between $5.4 billion and $19.2 billion per year for high school. Section 11 speculates on how the contact sports might be changed to have their injury rates be similar to those in the non-contact sports. |
| Keywords: | Sports injuries, Collegiate sports |
| JEL: | I18 I20 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:3001r&r=cta |
| By: | Kate Elizabeth Gannon, Mike Hulme |
| Abstract: | This paper describes an opportunistic case study of the 2012 Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation’s ocean fertilization project. Anchored in notions of place and identity, the Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation marks a novel entry point into social research on geoengineering, which enables a more situated engagement with ocean fertilization, in keeping with geographical traditions. The paper adopts an innovative design that combines ethnography with Q-Methodology, to identify clusters of shared meaning around the way in which contestation surrounding the geoengineering ambitions of the Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation invoked different interpretations about the role and nature of ‘nature’ and human agency. This case study suggests that ‘geoengineering’ will always be performed and interpreted through contextually specific meanings and such local particularities as geography, people, practices and place. Nevertheless, interpretative resources that have been described in relation to a range of geoengineering technologies, (including solar radiation management proposals), through earlier, and less situated, social science literatures, are also traced from this place-based experience of geoengineering. Furthermore, we suggest that our Q-Methodology factors have some interpretative overlap with ideal-typical ‘worldview’ heuristics, used to describe contemporary Western cultural currents in earlier literatures. This connects ocean fertilization in Haida Gwaii with debates about other geoengineering technologies and with wider cultural meanings and literatures that consider the human relationship with nature. We suggest that the Q-factors may serve as useful mnemonics for helping to conceptualise some of the deeper contested values and assumptions that drive public contestation about geoengineering. |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp280&r=cta |
| By: | Douglas Sutherland; Jane Stacey |
| Abstract: | Iceland has been experiencing a tourism boom. The number of tourists visiting annually quadrupled between 2010 and 2016 and shows continued strength. The tourism sector is now the major export earner and is also creating new jobs and supporting new businesses. The government budget has also benefitted from high tax revenues. The surge in tourism supported growth after the crisis and the sector has become a major pillar of the economy. But, the breakneck growth of tourism has created a number of challenges. Growing pains have emerged as accommodation supply has lagged in the wake of unexpectedly large number of tourists, contributing to pressure on the local housing market. The environment, particularly in some popular sites, has also come under pressure. The government has reacted to these environmental and social impacts and has worked with the industry to agree on a path forward. Sustaining a nature-based tourism for Iceland will require more coordinated policy across government and a long-term strategic plan that builds on Iceland's strengths. Protecting the unique environmental attractions of Iceland - while mitigating adverse social impacts - will lay the basis for the healthy development of a new important sector. This working paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Iceland (http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economi c-survey-iceland.htm). |
| Keywords: | environment, growth, housing, sustainabile development, Tourism |
| JEL: | O44 Q56 R31 |
| Date: | 2017–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1422-en&r=cta |
| By: | Fabrice Defever; José-Daniel Reyes; Alejandro Riaño; Gonzalo Varela |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effect on firm-level export outcomes of the Cash Incentive Scheme for Exports program provided by the Government of Nepal. The analysis utilizes customs-level data for 2011-14, combined with information on the subsidy payments made to individual firms provided by the Central Bank of Nepal. The Cash Incentive Scheme for Exports cash subsidy is available to firms exporting a select group of products, and requires firms to export to countries other than India. Overall, the subsidy has not produced a significant impact on firm-level export values, prices, quantities, or their growth rates. However, the study finds a small positive effect on the number of eligible products exported to countries other than India and the number of destination markets reached among firms that receive the subsidy. These results are consistent with the fact that the subsidy was granted primarily to large exporters that were already shipping eligible products to countries other than India. The findings suggest that although the cash subsidy has not produced a significant increase in exports, it has achieved a positive impact on export diversification for firms that were already satisfying the scheme’s eligibility criteria. |
| Keywords: | export subsidies, export diversification, performance requirements, trade policy, Nepal |
| JEL: | F12 F13 O47 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6418&r=cta |
| By: | Jason Barr; Jeffrey P. Cohen; Eon Kim |
| Abstract: | The impacts of a major hurricane on commercial and residential real estate can be devastating. Recent events in Houston (with Hurricane Harvey), Florida (with Hurricane Irma), and New York City (with Hurricane Sandy) are examples of how flooding damage can unexpectedly extend beyond the FEMA flood zones. Such surprises or shocks can provide property owners—including those that are not flooded—with new information about future flood risks, based on the difference of the property distance from the flood zone and the distance to the actual locations of flooding. We apply a new estimation strategy to quantify the effects of these shocks on property values, using information on repeat property sales to estimate a separate shock effect for each dry property. We demonstrate our approach with an application to non-flooded properties in New York City for Hurricane Sandy. We find that, in general, houses, apartments and commercial properties show the most price volatility within the older, denser urban core, mostly in those neighborhoods that appear to be gentrifying. |
| Keywords: | Hurricane Sandy, Storm Surges, New York City, Locally Weighted Regressions, Real Estate Prices |
| JEL: | R3 C14 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:run:wpaper:2017-002&r=cta |
| By: | Varun Kumar Das (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); A. Ganesh Kumar (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | The basic objective of this study is to analyse the role of farm size and diversification in determining farmers' income. Using data from NSS 70th round Situation Assessment Survey, the study considers two measures of income, viz., farm income per hectare (from crop and animal husbandry) and farmer's income per capita (from both farm and non-farm sources). Linear, log linear and panel data models are estimated to understand the nature of relationship between income, farm size and the two forms of diversification (on-farm and off-farm diversification). The study finds that a U-shaped relationship exists between farm size and farm / farmer's income. The results also show that both on-farm and off-farm diversification have an inverted U-shape relationship with farm / farmer's income. That is, diversification up to some level helps improve income but excessive diversification might lead to misallocation of resources and hence a fall in income. The results also show that engagement in public works programme such as MGNREGA has an adverse impact on farm / farmer's income, possibly due to the opportunity cost of time spent in such programmes. Finally, positive effect of education on income is seen only at somewhat high education levels. |
| Keywords: | Farm size, farm income, farmer's income, on-farm / off-farm diversification |
| JEL: | L25 Q12 Q15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2017-013&r=cta |
| By: | Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya; Kelly, Grace |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine whether refugee flows are associated with an increase in electoral support for populist-right parties. The empirical evidence on this so far remains mixed. We argue that refugee inflows alone are an inaccurate predictor of the success of populist-right parties. Rather, refugee inflows can lead to a rise in electoral support for populist-right parties where traditional welfare states are expansive —the so called ‘welfare chauvinism’ argument, wherein natives already dependent on high levels of social welfare are likely to see refugees as interlopers who free-ride on welfare and thereby threaten the welfare of locals. Using panel data on 27 OECD countries during 1990–2014 period (25 years), we find no evidence to suggest that refugee inflows per se increase electoral support for populist-right parties. However, a positive effect of refugee inflows on electoral support for populist-right parties is conditional upon a higher degree of social welfare and unemployment benefit spending, which supports the propositions of 'welfare chauvinism.' Moreover, support for populist-right parties increase when the degree of labor market regulations and welfare spending is high. Our results are robust to alternative data, sample and estimation techniques. |
| Keywords: | Refugee flows, welfare state, and populist-right. |
| JEL: | F22 H24 H41 |
| Date: | 2017–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81816&r=cta |
| By: | Zhongwen Liang |
| Abstract: | In this paper, a unified approach is proposed to derive the exact local asymptotic power for panel unit root tests, which is one of the most important issues in nonstationary panel data literature. Two most widely used panel unit root tests known as Levin-Lin-Chu (LLC, Levin, Lin and Chu (2002)) and Im-Pesaran-Shin (IPS, Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003)) tests are systematically studied for various situations to illustrate our method. Our approach is characteristic function based, and can be used directly in deriving the moments of the asymptotic distributions of these test statistics under the null and the local-to-unity alternatives. For the LLC test, the approach provides an alternative way to obtain the results that can be derived by the existing method. For the IPS test, the new results are obtained, which fills the gap in the literature where few results exist, since the IPS test is non-admissible. Moreover, our approach has the advantage in deriving Edgeworth expansions of these tests, which are also given in the paper. The simulations are presented to illustrate our theoretical findings. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.02944&r=cta |
| By: | Pfaff, Alexander S. P.; Robalino, Juan D.; Reis, Eustáquio José; Walker, Robert T.; Perz, Stephen George L.; Laurance, William F.; Bohrer, Claudio; Aldrich, Steven; Arima, E. Y.; Caldas, Marcellus Marques; Kirby, Katherine |
| Abstract: | To inform the search for SDG synergies in infrastructure provision, and to reduce SDG tradeoffs, the authors show that road impacts on Brazilian Amazon forests have varied significantly across settings. Forest loss varied predictably with prior development - both prior roads and prior deforestation - and in a spatial pattern suggesting a synergy between forests and urban growth in such frontiers. Examining multiple roads investments, the authors estimate impact for settings of high, medium and low prior roads and deforestation. Census-tract observations are numerous for each setting and reveal a pattern, not consistent with endogeneity, that confirms our predictions for this kind of frontier. Impacts are: low after relatively high prior development; larger for medium prior development, at the forest margin; then low again for low prior development. For the latter setting, the authors note that in such isolated areas, interactions with conservation policies influence forest impacts over time. These Amazonian results suggest "SDG strategic" locations of infrastructure, an idea they suggest for other frontiers while highlighting differences in those frontiers and their SDG opportunities. |
| Keywords: | deforestation,roads,infrastructure,climate change,biodiversity,Brazil |
| JEL: | O12 O13 H23 H41 Q23 Q24 Q56 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201783&r=cta |
| By: | Chen Liang (Department of Information Systems, W.P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University, USA); Yili Hong (Department of Information Systems, W.P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University, USA); Bin Gu (Department of Information Systems, W.P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University, USA) |
| Abstract: | We study the nature of home bias in online employment, wherein the employers prefer workers from their own home countries. Using a unique large-scale dataset from a major online labor platform, we identify employers’ home bias in their online employment decisions. Moreover, we find that employers from countries with high traditional values, lower diversity, and smaller (user) population size, tend to have a stronger home bias. Further, we investigate the nature of employers’ home bias using a quasi-natural experiment wherein the platform introduces a monitoring system to facilitate employers to keep track of workers’ progress in time-based projects. After matching comparable fixed-price projects as a control group using propensity score matching, our difference-in-difference estimations show that the home bias does exist in online employment, and at least 40.93% of home bias is driven by statistical discrimination. |
| Keywords: | home bias; global employment; statistical discrimination; taste-based discrimination; quasi-natural experiment; Gig economy |
| JEL: | J71 J78 J23 J82 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:1706&r=cta |
| By: | Shvartsman, Elena; Diriwächter, Patric |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses how individual job satisfaction is affected by wage changes. In order to account for potential dynamic effects of wage changes on job satisfaction, we include lead and lag effects of income changes in our analysis. Furthermore, we examine the role of social comparisons, i.e., how an individual’s job satisfaction is driven not only by changes in his wages, but also by the size of these changes relative to wage changes within his reference group. |
| JEL: | J28 M50 M52 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168107&r=cta |
| By: | Audra J. Bowlus (University of Western Ontario); Eda Bozkurt; Lance Lochner (University of Western Ontario) |
| Abstract: | The basic canonical model fails to predict the aggregate college premium outside of the original sample period (1963-1987) or to account for the observed deviations in college premia for younger vs. older workers. This paper documents that these failings are due to mis-measurement of the relevant prices and quantities when using composition adjustment methods to construct relative skill prices and supplies, which ignore cohort effects that are particularly important in the 1980s and 1990s. Re-estimating the model with prices and quantities that incorporate cohort effects produces a good fit for the out of sample prediction and explains the observed deviation in the college premium for younger vs. older workers even with perfect substitutability across age. Moreover, the estimated elasticity of substitution between high and low skill is higher and there is a much smaller role for SBTC in explaining the path of the college wage premium. The elasticity of substitution is also an important parameter for the broader literature on education and wages, especially in assessing general equilibrium responses to government policies. In the case of a tuition subsidy, price responses can undo most of the direct (partial equilibrium) effect of the subsidy on enrolment, so that general equilibrium enrolment responses are substantially weaker. The higher elasticity estimated in this paper, produces much weaker general equilibrium relative price changes and stronger enrolment effects. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:20179&r=cta |
| By: | David Carey |
| Abstract: | Technological change is increasing the productivity of highly skilled workers but creating more challenging labour-market conditions for their low-skilled counterparts. These pressures are likely to grow, especially in light of progress being made in Artificial Intelligence. The NZ labour force is upskilling to meet these challenges, but more progress will be needed to keep ahead of the race with technology. Young New Zealanders will need to continue their education to higher levels than in the past and acquire skills that are more highly valued in the labour market. To maintain valuable skills, workers of all ages will need to engage more in lifelong learning. Some will need to retrain when their occupation becomes obsolete. Getting the most out of skills will also depend on allocating skills to their most productive uses. Reducing New Zealand’s high rates of qualification and skills mismatches would boost both wages and productivity. With the possibility of more workers being displaced than in the past, greater efforts may need to be considered to help them get back into jobs. This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of New Zealand (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-surve y-new-zealand.htm). |
| Keywords: | displaced workers, labour mobility, lifelong learning, qualification and skills mismatches, skill-biased technical change, upskilling |
| JEL: | I25 J24 J31 J62 J65 |
| Date: | 2017–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1420-en&r=cta |
| By: | Lionel Ragot; Michel Beine; Marco Delogu |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the determinants of international students' mobility at the university level, focusing specifically on the role of tuition fees. We derive a gravity model from a Random Utility Maximization model of location choice for international students in the presence of capacity constraints of the hosting institutions. The last layer of the model is estimated using new data on student migration flows at the university level for Italy. We control for the potential endogeneity of tuition fees through a classical IV approach based on the status of the university. We obtain evidence for a clear and negative effect of fees on international student mobility and confirm the positive impact of the quality of the education. The estimations also support the important role of additional destination-specific variables such as host capacity, the expected return of education and the cost of living in the vicinity of the university. |
| Keywords: | Foreign students; Tuition fees; Location choice; University Quality. |
| JEL: | F22 H52 I23 O15 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2017-44&r=cta |
| By: | Gonzalez, Paula (Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Montes-Rojas, Gabriel V. (City University London); Pal, Sarmistha (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | Using a simple theoretical model we conjecture that dual practice may increase the number of patients seen but reduce hours spent at public facilities, if public physicians lack motivation and/or if their opportunity costs are very large. Using data from Indonesia, we then test these theoretical conjectures. Our identification strategy relies on a 1997 legislation necessitating health professionals to apply for license for private practice only after three years of graduation. Results using a difference-in-difference regression discontinuity design provides support to our conjectures, identifying the role of weak work discipline, lack of motivation and opportunity costs of public service provision. |
| Keywords: | dual practice of health professionals, Ministry of Health Regulation, weak monitoring, motivation, opportunity costs of public service, Indonesia |
| JEL: | I18 J2 J44 J45 O1 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11038&r=cta |
| By: | Bommier, Antoine; Harenberg, Daniel; Le Grand, François |
| Abstract: | We analyze life-cycle saving strategies with a recursive model that is designed to provide reasonable positive values for the value of a statistical life. With a positive value of life, risk aversion amplifies the impact of uncertain survival on the discount rate, and thus reduces savings. Our model also predicts that risk aversion lowers stock market participation and leads to choose more conservative portfolios. |
| JEL: | D91 G11 J17 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168189&r=cta |
| By: | Baran Doda, Sam Fankhauser |
| Abstract: | This paper simulates the distributional consequences of alternative carbon emission reduction policies on power producers. To that end we propose a simple partial equilibrium model in which power generation takes place at technologyspecific sites which can differ in productivity. We calibrate the model with six technologies. Hydro, wind and solar generation feature site-specific productivity, and combine capital and sites to produce power. The productivity of coal, gas and nuclear generation is constant across sites. We use the calibrated model to analyse effects of alternative tax and subsidy schemes which imply the same reduction in carbon emissions. A carbon tax outperforms all other instruments and does not reduce the profits of carbon-free generators. Technology-specific subsidies are more costly socially, and those directed at output, rather than inputs, imply a larger transfer from the government to the subsidy recipient. Power consumption taxes typically have very high social costs and should not be the instrument of choice to reduce emissions or to finance subsidies aiming to reduce emissions. |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp276&r=cta |
| By: | Escudero, Veronica (ILO International Labour Organization); Kluve, Jochen (Humboldt University Berlin, RWI); Mourelo, Elva López (ILO International Labour Organization); Pignatti, Clemente (ILO International Labour Organization) |
| Abstract: | We present a systematic collection and assessment of impact evaluations of active labour market programmes (ALMP) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The paper delineates the strategy to compile a novel meta database and provides a narrative review of 51 studies. Based on these studies, the quantitative analysis extracts a sample of 296 impact estimates, and uses meta regression models to analyse systematic patterns in the data. In addition to analysing earnings and employment outcomes as in previous meta analyses, we also code and investigate measures of job quality, such as the effects on hours worked and formality. We find that ALMPs in LAC are particularly effective in increasing the probability of having a formal job, compared to other outcomes. Our results also show that training programmes are slightly more effective than other types of interventions. Moreover, when looking at the sample of training programmes alone, we observe that formal employment is also the outcome category that is most likely to be impacted positively by these programmes. In terms of targeting, we find that ALMPs in the region work better for women than for men, and for youth compared to prime-age workers. Finally, medium-run estimates are not more likely to be positive than short-run estimates, while programmes of short duration (4 months or less) are significantly less likely to produce positive effects compared to longer interventions. |
| Keywords: | active labour market program, Latin America and the Caribbean, employment, informality, impact evaluation, meta analysis |
| JEL: | J08 J24 O54 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11039&r=cta |
| By: | Yen-Chi Chen |
| Abstract: | We review recent advances in modal regression studies using kernel density estimation. Modal regression is an alternative approach for investigating relationship between a response variable and its covariates. Specifically, modal regression summarizes the interactions between the response variable and covariates using the conditional mode or local modes. We first describe the underlying model of modal regression and its estimators based on kernel density estimation. We then review the asymptotic properties of the estimators and strategies for choosing the smoothing bandwidth. We also discuss useful algorithms and similar alternative approaches for modal regression, and propose future direction in this field. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.07004&r=cta |
| By: | Axelsson, Tobias (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Palacio, Andrés (Department of Economic History, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Since 1968, Indonesia has been among the few developing countries able to sustain per capita income growth over 5%. However, poverty and surplus labor are still main features of the economy. We ask to what extent the dual nature of growth has stimulated structural change, or just rewarded a particular sector or region. We find that the emblematic State support to agriculture has not untapped the potential growth in labour reallocation. Despite the income diversification within and outside agriculture, the linkages between sectors and regions remain weak. For catching up, the integration of the outer regions into the economy must still go through agriculture, investment in human capital, infrastructure, social policies and local capabilities. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; regional structural change; growth; stagnation; shrinking; Indonesia |
| JEL: | O47 R11 |
| Date: | 2017–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0164&r=cta |
| By: | Andrén, Daniela (Örebro University School of Business); Clark, Andrew E (Paris School of Economics (PSE)); D´Ambrosio, Conchita (University of Luxembourg); Karlsson, Sune (Örebro University School of Business); Pettersson, Nicklas (Örebro University School of Business) |
| Abstract: | We use a rich longitudinal data set following a cohort of Swedish women from age 10 to 49 to analyse the effects of birth and early-life conditions on adulthood outcomes. These latter include both well-being and the stress hormone cortisol. Employment and marital status are important adult determinants of well-being. Log family income and absence from school also predict adult well-being, although their importance falls when controlling for adult and birth characteristics. Among the birth characteristics, we find that high birth weight (>4.3kg) affects adult well-being. We predict the level of adult cortisol only poorly, and suggest that the relationship between life satisfaction and cortisol is non-monotonic: both high and low cortisol are negatively correlated with life satisfaction. The results from an OLS life satisfaction regression and a multinomial logit of high or low cortisol (as compared to medium) are more similar to each other. |
| Keywords: | life satisfaction; cortisol; birth-cohort data; adult; child and birth outcomes; multivariate imputation by chained equations |
| JEL: | A12 D60 I31 |
| Date: | 2017–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2017_008&r=cta |
| By: | Aleksandr V. Rusanov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The article analyzes argumentation that was used by the Papal curia and the University of Lisbon in the bulls and petitions during the short period when the kingdom of Portugal supported Anti-Pope Clement VII (1380–1381). Rhetoric of observed sources includes legal concepts and images borrowed from earlier theoretical texts and academic privileges. In the Curial practice the main legal conception of medieval university, the Studium generale, could be interpreted in the different ways, as it is demonstrated by the case of the Gregory XII’s bulls addressed to the Portuguese university in 1377. In 1380 the Portuguese academic corporation expected some grants and authorization of its status in exchange for support of the Avignon Pope. But controversial formulas and concepts of Clement VII’s bull In Superne dignitatis (that de jure founded a new Studium generale in Lisbon) rather strengthen his authority in Portugal than favoured realization of proclaimed university privileges |
| Keywords: | history, medieval universities, Portugal |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:153/hum/2017&r=cta |
| By: | Daniel Kosiorowski; Dominik Mielczarek; Jerzy P. Rydlewski |
| Abstract: | In this article, a new nonparametric and robust method of forecasting hierarchical functional time series is presented. The method is compared with Hyndman and Shang's method with respect to their unbiasedness, effectiveness, robustness, and computational complexity. Taking into account results of the analytical, simulation and empirical studies, we come to the conclusion that our proposal is superior over the proposal of Hyndman and Shang with respect to some statistical criteria and especially with respect to their robustness and computational complexity. The studied empirical example relates to the management of Internet service divided into four subservices. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.02669&r=cta |
| By: | Francesco C. Billari; Osea Giuntella; Luca Stella |
| Abstract: | There is a growing concern that the widespread use of computers, mobile phones and other digital devices before bedtime disrupts our sleep with detrimental effects on our health and cognitive performance. High-speed Internet promotes the use of electronic devices, video games and Internet addiction (e.g., online games and cyberloafing). Exposure to artificial light from tablets and PCs can alterate individuals’ sleep patterns. However, there is little empirical evidence on the causal relationship between technology use near bedtime and sleep. This paper studies the causal effects of access to high-speed Internet on sleep. We first show that playing video games, using PC or smartphones, watching TV or movies are correlated with shorter sleep duration. Second, we exploit historical differences in pre-existing telephone infrastructure that affected the deployment of high-speed Internet across Germany (see Falck et al., 2014) to identify a source of plausibly exogenous variation in access to Broadband. Using this instrumental variable strategy, we find that DSL access reduces sleep duration and sleep satisfaction. |
| Keywords: | Internet, Sleep Duration, Time use |
| JEL: | I1 J22 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp934&r=cta |
| By: | Billari, Francesco C. (Bocconi University); Giuntella, Osea (University of Pittsburgh); Stella, Luca (Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | There is a growing concern that the widespread use of computers, mobile phones and other digital devices before bedtime disrupts our sleep with detrimental effects on our health and cognitive performance. High-speed Internet promotes the use of electronic devices, video games and Internet addiction (e.g., online games and cyberloafing). Exposure to artificial light from tablets and PCs can alterate individuals' sleep patterns. However, there is little empirical evidence on the causal relationship between technology use near bedtime and sleep. This paper studies the causal effects of access to high-speed Internet on sleep. We first show that playing video games, using PC or smartphones, watching TV or movies are correlated with shorter sleep duration. Second, we exploit historical differences in pre-existing telephone infrastructure that affected the deployment of high-speed Internet across Germany (see Falck et al., 2014) to identify a source of plausibly exogenous variation in access to Broadband. Using this instrumental variable strategy, we find that DSL access reduces sleep duration and sleep satisfaction. |
| Keywords: | internet, sleep duration, time use |
| JEL: | I1 J22 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11050&r=cta |
| By: | Anthony M. Diercks; William Waller |
| Abstract: | We provide a critical theoretical and empirical analysis that suggests a key driver of fiscal effects on equity markets is the Federal Reserve. For the Post-1980 era, tax cuts lead to higher cash flow news and higher discount rates. The discount rate news tends to dominate such that tax cuts are associated with lower equity returns. This result is flipped for the Pre-1980 era. Our results are confirmed across multiple measures of tax shocks (narrative, SVAR, municipal bonds, etc.) at different frequencies (daily, quarterly, annual). We motivate our empirical findings with a standard New Keynesian model (in addition to the FRB/US model) that exhibits a shift in the aggressiveness of monetary policy. Moreover in our theoretical framework, downward nominal wage rigidities account for observed asymmetries in the response to tax cuts versus tax increases. |
| Keywords: | Federal Reserve ; Fiscal policy ; News Decomposition ; Stock Market |
| JEL: | G0 E0 E63 G12 E5 |
| Date: | 2017–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2017-104&r=cta |
| By: | Wayne Yuan Gao |
| Abstract: | This paper characterizes the minimax linear estimator of the value of an unknown function at a boundary point of its domain in a Gaussian white noise model under the restriction that the first-order derivative of the unknown function is Lipschitz continuous (the second-order H\"{o}lder class). The result is then applied to construct the minimax optimal estimator for the regression discontinuity design model, where the parameter of interest involves function values at boundary points. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.06809&r=cta |
| By: | Pamela Kaval; Marjan van den Belt |
| Abstract: | An Ecosystem Services approach can be used as an organizing framework to enhance the management of ecosystems, as multiple values and trade-offs can be identified and communicated through an ecosystem services lens. This can support more systemic, rather than incremental, planning, decision-making, and longer term value propositions. As rivers and their catchments/watersheds (RCW) are the lifeblood of many ecosystems, ecosystem services must adequately be taken into account in RCW planning, decision-making, and management to sustain and/or enhance this important natural capital. In this literature review, we discuss if/how an ecosystem services lens has been applied in the peer reviewed literature in the context of RCW management. Overall, the results reveal continual increases worldwide in the popularity and importance of considering ecosystem services in terms of RCW. Our findings also reveal that most of these studies have focussed on the themes of modelling, valuation, and/or mapping, but have not necessarily comprehensively used all three. We conclude that there is room for an ecosystem services approach to reach its full potential as an organizing framework, in particular across regions/countries and at multiple levels of scale. |
| Keywords: | ecosystem services; river; watershed; catchment; ecosystem service organizing framework; river management |
| JEL: | Q2 Q57 Q25 Q26 Q28 |
| Date: | 2017–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:17/22&r=cta |
| By: | Dalmazzo, Alberto; de Blasio, Guido; Poy, Samuele |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the case of a local secession, i.e. the birth of a new local jurisdiction by separation from an existing one. We present a stylized model in which society is composed of heterogeneous groups and individuals have an homophily bias. The model predicts that: i) separations, such as the split of a territory into distinct administrative units, occur when the costs of mixed communities are sufficiently large; ii) the smaller community drives the decision to secede; iii) welfare gains from the split are associated with positive population growth; iv) higher payoffs under separations, however, might be related to taste for sameness only, with no (or even negative) effect on economic growth. Then, we bring the model to the data by exploiting the secession of the Italian region of Molise from Abruzzo, a unique event in Italian history, which took place in 1963. Historical records document that the split was the result of pressures from Molise, the smaller community. Our evidence suggests that the split was associated with population inflows in both areas. Finally, the main empirical findings, derived by using a synthetic control approach, show that the split caused significant benefits, in both regions, in terms of per-capita GDP growth. |
| Keywords: | local jurisdictions,secessions,regional growth |
| JEL: | H77 H10 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:125&r=cta |
| By: | Maya Lavrinovich (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the early stages of career of Aleksei Fedorovich Malinovskii, since 1814 Head of the Moscow Archive of the State College of Foreign Affairs. The Archive's records and diverse correspondence from the 1780s – early 1800s reveal his connections to the aristocrats – Vorontsov and Sheremetev – and to some of the highest officials of the Empire (vice-chancellor Ivan Osterman) who willingly patronized this son of a Moscow priest and later a petty official in the Archive. The career stretegies he pursued in the field of the patronage went parallel to and were no less important than those he pursued in the formal hierarchies. He sought to obtain noble status in order to acquire estates and serfs. To gain a symbolic foothold in the elite and to become its full member, he married one Islen'eva, a niece of the Vorontsovs, who became a rich heiress in 1810. Later he gave his daughter in marriage to Prince Dolgorukov, a remote relative of the Sheremetevs, thus linking himself up with both clans of his protectors. Malinovskii's relationships with his patrons were based on mutual services and benefit which are discussed in the article |
| Keywords: | Russia, 18th century, career, patronage, clientelism, patron-client relationships, Moscow Archive of the State College of Foreign Affairs, ennoblement, service, Aleksei Malinovskii |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:152/hum/2017&r=cta |
| By: | Deng, Xiaohu (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Jiang, Christine (University of Memphis); Young, Danqing (Chinese University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | Extant literature documents that managers have an incentive to hoard bad news due to political concerns. In this paper, we test the proposition that short selling has an attenuating effect on the politically motivated suppression of bad news. We examine the stock price behavior of Chinese public firms around two highly visible political events - meetings of the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party and Two Sessions (The National People’s Congress Conference and The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference) from 2002-2014, and find that political bad news hoarding has been reduced after short selling becomes available. We establish causality by relying on a difference-in-differences approach based on a controlled experiment of short selling regulation changes in China. We also find this reduction in bad news hoarding to be more pronounced in firms with stronger political connection (higher state ownership and larger size) and higher accounting opacity, which further confirms our finding. This study sheds new light on the real effects of short sellers on political impact on capital market. |
| Keywords: | Short selling; Political force; Negative news hoarding; Information environment |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tas:wpaper:23736&r=cta |
| By: | Ruhose, Jens; Thomsen, Stephan |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of continuous training on non-monetary outcomes. Wider benefits of continuous training have become a top priority on the European political agenda. Using SOEP data, we find evidence that continuous training increases life satisfaction, reduces worries about the own economic and job situation, and increases civic participation in some domains. We employ a regression-adjusted DiD matching approach that accounts for selection on observables and for time-invariant unobservables. |
| JEL: | J24 I21 M53 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168169&r=cta |
| By: | Dodge Cahan; Niklas Potrafke |
| Abstract: | Higher economic growth was generated during Democratic presidencies compared to Republican presidencies in the United States. The question is why. Blinder and Watson (2016) explain that the Democratic-Republican presidential growth gap (D-R growth gap) can hardly be attributed to the policies under Democratic presidents, but Democratic presidents – at least partly – just had good luck, although a substantial gap remains unexplained. A natural place to look for an explanation is the partisan balance at the state level. We show that pronounced national GDP growth was generated when a larger share of US states had Democratic governors and unified Democratic state governments. However, this fact does not explain the D-R growth gap. To the contrary, given the tendency of electoral support at the state level to swing away from the party of the incumbent president, this works against the D-R growth gap. In fact, the D-R presidential growth gap at the national level might have been even larger were it not for the mitigating dynamics of state politics (by about 0.3-0.6 percentage points). These results suggest that the D-R growth gap is an even bigger puzzle than Blinder and Watson’s findings would suggest. |
| Keywords: | Democratic-Republican GDP growth gap, federalism, partisan politics, government ideology, United States, Democrats, Republicans |
| JEL: | D72 E60 H00 N12 N42 P16 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6517&r=cta |
| By: | Raphael A. Auer; Claudio Borio; Andrew Filardo |
| Abstract: | Greater international economic interconnectedness over recent decades has been changing inflation dynamics. This paper presents evidence that the expansion of global value chains (GVCs), ie cross-border trade in intermediate goods and services, is an important channel through which global economic slack influences domestic inflation. In particular, we document the extent to which the growth in GVCs explains the established empirical correlation between global economic slack and national inflation rates, both across countries and over time. Accounting for the role of GVCs, we also find that the conventional trade-based measures of openness used in previous studies are poor proxies for this transmission channel. The results support the hypothesis that as GVCs expand, direct and indirect competition among economies increases, making domestic inflation more sensitive to the global output gap. This can affect the trade-offs that central banks face when managing inflation. |
| Keywords: | globalization, inflation, Phillips curve, monetary policy, global value chain, production structure, international inflation synchronisation, input-output linkages, supply chain |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 F02 F41 F42 F14 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6387&r=cta |
| By: | Osea Giuntella |
| Abstract: | The spread of high-speed Internet epitomizes the digital revolution, affecting several aspectsof our life. Using German panel data, we test whether the availability of broadbandInternet influences fertility choices in a low-fertility setting, which is well-known for the difficultyto combine work and family life. We exploit a strategy devised by Falck et al. (2014) toobtain causal estimates of the impact of broadband on fertility. We find positive effects of highspeedInternet availability on the fertility of high-educated women aged 25 and above. Effectsare not statistically significant both for men, low-educated women, and under 25. We alsoshow that broadband access significantly increases the share of women reporting teleworkingor part-time working. Furthermore, we find positive effects on time spent with children andoverall life satisfaction. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that high-speed Internetallows high-educated women to conciliate career and motherhood, which may promotefertility with a “digital divide†. At the same time, higher access to information on the risksand costs of early pregnancy and childbearing may explain the negative effects on youngeradults. |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:6256&r=cta |
| By: | Hou, Yang; Holmes, Mark |
| Abstract: | While dynamic optimal hedging is of major interest, it remains unclear as to whether incorporating higher moments of a return distribution leads to better hedging decisions. We examine the effects of introducing a bivariate skew-Student density function with static and autoregressive conditional skewness and kurtosis on dynamic minimum-variance hedging strategies. Static higher order moments improve reductions in variance and value at risk of hedged portfolios. The inclusion of dynamics through an autoregressive component extends these improvements further. These benefits avail for short and long hedging horizons, which is highlighted in the global financial crisis. The static and conditional higher order moments enhance the notion that the size and smoothness of hedge ratios positively relate to hedging effectiveness while volatility does the reverse. Improved effectiveness can be explained given an upgrade of size and smoothness and a downgrade of volatility of hedge ratios attributed to the dynamics of higher order moments. |
| Keywords: | dynamic optimal hedging, multivariate GARCH models, skew-Student density, conditional skewness and kurtosis, hedging effectiveness |
| JEL: | G11 G13 |
| Date: | 2017–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82000&r=cta |
| By: | Mario Coccia |
| Abstract: | This study proposes the concept of disruptive firms: they are firms with market leadership that deliberate introduce new and improved generations of durable goods that destroy, directly or indirectly, similar products present in markets in order to support their competitive advantage and/or market leadership. These disruptive firms support technological and industrial change and induce consumers to buy new products to adapt to new socioeconomic environment. In particular, disruptive firms generate and spread path-breaking innovations in order to achieve and sustain the goal of a (temporary) profit monopoly. This organizational behaviour and strategy of disruptive firms support technological change. This study can be useful for bringing a new perspective to explain and generalize one of the determinants that generates technological and industrial change. Overall, then this study suggests that one of the general sources of technological change is due to disruptive firms (subjects), rather than disruptive technologies (objects), that generate market shifts in a Schumpeterian world of innovation-based competition. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.06132&r=cta |
| By: | Khalida Ghaus; Nadeem Ahmed; Shehryar Khan Toru; Rabia Manzoor; Muhammad Sohaib |
| Abstract: | The present study focuses on the implications of implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the context of Pakistan. The study has identified the structural impediments confronted due to political and bureaucratic hierarchies to be the main reasons for the lower level of attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The research suggests that the primary approach for the provincial governments towards SDG implementation should be integrating the SDGs into the provincial Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF). In addition, leadership provided by federal government is considered to be essential for an improved coordination and management of forward and backward linkages. However, this is often challenged by the inter-provincial political rivalries and lack of monitoring mechanisms. The need and the importance of conflict management tactics have been identified as key factors to keep the provincial rivalry under control and also to bridge the trust deficit. This responsibility can partially be entrusted upon the SDGs Unit and the Secretariat. There are serious capacity issues (human and financial) both at federal and provincial government levels. All four provincial governments need to chalk out their respective plans to avail sources of Means of Implementation. Finally, the paper emphasises on conducting a mapping exercise to gauge the existing resource availability and the future resource needs for implementing the SDGs. |
| Keywords: | Pakistan, Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF), national-level challenges, SDGs, Means of implementation (MoI), Provincial governments |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svo:opaper:32&r=cta |
| By: | Hu, Zhongzhong; Rodrigue, Joel; Tan, Yong; Yu, Chunhai |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the separate contribution of idiosyncratic productivity and demand growth on aggregate Chinese exports. We develop firm, product, market and year specific measures of productivity and demand. We use these measures to document a number of novel findings that distinguish the growth of Chinese exports. First, we document that changes in demand explain nearly 78–89% of aggregate export growth, while only 11–22%of export growth is determined by productivity growth. Second, our results highlight two mechanisms which contribute significantly to aggregate export growth: the rapid reallocation of market shares towards products with growing demand, and high rates of product exit among low demand products. Investigating the mechanisms underlying these results we find that new exporters suffer demand shocks which are 66% smaller than those observed for incumbent producers in the same product market. By comparison, we find that there is only an 8% difference on average between the productivity of new and incumbent exporters.Repeating our exercise with revenue productivity reveals much smaller differences. This is largely attributed to differential movements in prices and marginal costs. |
| Keywords: | Exports, China, Productivity, Demand |
| JEL: | D24 F12 L11 L25 |
| Date: | 2017–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82039&r=cta |
| By: | Navam Niles; Karin Fernando |
| Abstract: | The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) present two challenges for integrated planning and implementation at the national level. One is that policies and plans need to identify and accommodate interconnectivities amongst the SDGs. Second is the need to balance the three dimensions: economic growth, social inclusion and environmental protection. This paper uses network analysis to explore interconnectivity and balance of the Sri Lankan policies or plans in relation to SDG 7, that advocates clean energy security. The findings suggest that the selected policies or plans are not only clearly linked to SDG 7, but also shows strong connectivity to SDG 1 (poverty), 10 (inequality), 11 (cities) and 12 (sustainable consumption and production) as well as other SDGs. This emphasises the need to recognise sectoral cross links for an integrated plan. In terms of balance there is a skew towards the environmental dimension over the economic and social dimensions. There are also conflicts between the environmental and economic dimensions that need to be acknowledged and reconciled, while more focus is needed to meet the objective of energy for all. Lastly the paper shows that network analysis can assist policymakers and planners to move towards building an integrated approach to develop sustainable policies and plans. |
| Keywords: | SDG 7, network analysis, Sri Lankan energy policies and plans, interconnectivity and balance, clean energy security |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svo:opaper:39&r=cta |
| By: | Osea Giuntella |
| Abstract: | The rapid evolution into a 24h society challenges individuals’ ability to conciliate workschedules and biological needs. Epidemiological research suggests that social and biologicaltime are increasingly drifting apart (“social jetlag†). This study uses a spatial regressiondiscontinuity design to estimate the economic cost of the misalignment between social andbiological rhythms arising at the border of a time-zone in the presence of relatively rigid socialschedules (e.g., work and school schedules). Exploiting the discontinuity in the timing of naturallight at a time-zone boundary, we find that an extra hour of natural light in the eveningreduces sleep duration by an average of 19 minutes and increases the likelihood of reportinginsufficient sleep. Using data drawn from the Center for Disease Control and Preventionand the US Census, we find that the discontinuity in the timing of natural light has significanteffects on health outcomes typically associated with circadian rhythms disruptions (e.g.,obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and breast cancer) and economic performance (percapita income). We provide a lower bound estimate of the health care costs and productivitylosses associated with these effects. |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:6255&r=cta |
| By: | David Lander; David Gunawan; William Griffiths; Duangkamon Chotikapanich |
| Abstract: | We introduce a Bayesian approach for assessing Lorenz and stochastic dominance. For two income distributions, say X and Y, estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo, we describe how to compute posterior probabilities for (i) X dominates Y, (ii) Y dominates X, and (iii) neither Y nor X is dominant. The proposed approach is applied to Indonesian income distributions using mixtures of gamma densities that ensure flexible modelling. Probability curves depicting the probability of dominance at each population proportion are used to explain changes in dominance probabilities over restricted ranges relevant for poverty orderings. They also explain some seemingly contradictory outcomes from the p-values of some sampling theory tests. |
| Keywords: | Dominance probabilities, poverty comparisons, MCMC, gamma mixture. |
| JEL: | C11 C12 D31 I32 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2017-15&r=cta |
| By: | Supriyatno, Bambang |
| Abstract: | Corn is one of the main commodities that are cultivated by many people, especially in Indonesia. The amount of maize produced by the community is not enough to meet the market demand because there are still many people who do not know about how to cultivate the right corn and good and the land or land for corn crops have been converted to many functions as buildings and others. Corn yield can also be influenced by several factors that are not yet optimal distribution of superior variety in the community, improper use of fertilizer, application of technology and improved beam cultivation method. Efforts to increase the production of maize crops are to improve the livelihood of farmers and meet market needs, it is necessary to increase the production of maize that meets the standards of both the quality and quantity of corn produced but in doing so need to know or understand the characteristics of corn crops to be planted such as morphology, physiology and agroecology needed by corn crops so as to increase maize production in Indonesia. Many uses of corn plants other than as food but corn can be used as flour, corn on the cob, roast corn and others so as to increase the demand for corn crops. The more market demand will increase the number of requests so that the production of plants or goods will decrease as the stock of goods thins and increases the price. . |
| Keywords: | fertilizer, increase, price, quality |
| JEL: | Q1 Q14 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82053&r=cta |
| By: | Tomohiro Machikita (Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO)); Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how trade regime change has affected the lifecycle of manufacturing plants. For this purpose, we exploited the historical event of Japan’s opening to trade in 1859 as a natural experiment. Based on plant-level data for 1902 and 1919, we explore how lifecycles of plants differ between the periods before and after 1859. It was found that lifecycles of plants were indeed different between these two periods: (1) a plant grew much faster as it aged after 1859 than before 1859; (2) this effect is larger for plants in exporting industries and plants located in metropolitan areas; (3) plant size at entry was larger for plants that entered after 1859 compared to those that entered before 1859. The difference in plant lifecycles between the periods before and after 1859 was confirmed by long-term time series data covering both periods. Based on these findings, we argue that access to markets and advanced technologies affected the lifecycle of plants. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2017cf1068&r=cta |
| By: | Mario Cimoli; Jose Antonio Ocampo; Gabriel Porcile |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of international financial cycles on structural change in developing economies. It is argued that the impact of these cycles depend on the specific combination of macroeconomic and industrial policies adopted by the developing economy. The cases of Brazil and Argentina are contrasted with those of Korea and China. In the Asian economies, macroeconomic policy has been a complementary tool along with industrial policy to foster the diversification of production and capabilities. Inversely, in the case of the Latin American countries, long periods of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, combined with the weaknesses (or absence) of industrial policies, gave rise to loss of capabilities and lagging behind. Tests of structural break in times series of indexes of technological intensity of the production structure confirm the long run effects of financial shocks in the Latin American case. In the case of Korea there is evidence of hysteresis à la Baldwin-Krugman: a high RER was initially required to export and diversity the economy, but it was no longer necessary when the country had already built indigenous capabilities. |
| Date: | 2017–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2017/26&r=cta |
| By: | Albrecht Glitz; Daniel Wissmann |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the development and underlying drivers of skill premiums in Germany between 1980 and 2008. We show that the significant increase in the medium to low skill wage premiums since the late 1980s was almost exclusively concentrated among the group of workers aged 30 or below. Using a nested CES production function framework which allows for imperfect substitutability between young and old workers, we investigate whether changes in relative labor supplies could explain these patterns. Our model predicts the observed differential evolution of skill premiums very well. The estimates imply an elasticity of substitution between young and old workers of about 8, between medium- and low-skilled workers of 4 and between high-skilled and medium/low-skilled workers of 1.6. Using a cohort level analysis based on Microcensus data, we find that long-term demographic changes in the educational attainment of the native (West-)German population – in particular of the post baby boomer cohorts born after 1965 – are responsible for the surprising decline in the relative supply of medium-skilled workers which caused wage inequality at the lower part of the distribution to increase in recent decades. We further show that the role of (low-skilled) migration is limited in explaining the long-term changes in relative labor supplies. |
| Keywords: | cohorts, baby boom, labor supply, labor demand, skill-biased technological change, wage distribution, wage differentials |
| JEL: | J11 J21 J22 J31 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6576&r=cta |
| By: | Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Julia Grübler (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Oliver Reiter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Graph of the month Turkey Exchange rate Turkish lira vs. US dollar, 2007-2017; Foreign tourist arrivals 1987-2017, % change year on year (p. 1) Opinion corner What does the Turkish referendum result mean for the economy? (by Richard Grieveson; pp. 2-5) Aggregating import tariff rates a review of methodological approaches (by Oliver Reiter; pp. 7-11) Trade effects of non-tariff measures the ‘chlorinated chicken’ case (by Julia Grübler; pp. 12-18) EU trade regulations and the WTO dispute settlement on hygienic poultry (by Mahdi Ghodsi; pp. 19-23) Recommended reading (p. 24) Statistical Annex Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe (pp. 25-46) |
| Keywords: | exchange rate, foreign tourist arrivals, constitutional referendum, policy implications, import tariffs, meat and poultry trade, non-tariff measures, poultry trade, WTO dispute settlement |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2017-04&r=cta |
| By: | Häkkinen Skans, Iida (National Institute of Economic Research); Carlsson, Mikael (Uppsala Center for Labor Studies (UCLS) and the Riksbank); Nordström Skans, Oskar (Uppsala University, UCLS and IZA) |
| Abstract: | The paper estimates how wages respond to changes in regional unemployment using detailed Swedish micro data. The study is set in an economy with close to complete union coverage where real wages have grown continuously in all parts of the wage distribution for 15 years, and where the aggregate wage dispersion has remained con-stant for the same period. Our results show that this aggregate stability is coupled with non-trivial flexibility in terms of wage adjustments to changes in regional unemploy-ment. These results are particularly strong after the data have been purged from com-positional fluctuations. However, we also document that the industries with least flex-ible collective agreements cover a higher-than-average share of workers with a high risk of job-loss into unemployment. This institutional feature leads to additional wage rigidities for vulnerable workers. |
| Date: | 2017–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0149&r=cta |
| By: | Görtz, Christoph; Tsoukalas, John; Zanetti, Francesco |
| Abstract: | We examine the dynamic effects and empirical role of TFP news shocks in the context of frictions in financial markets. We document two new facts using VAR methods which provide robust evidence on the importance credit spreads for the propagation of news shocks. A DSGE model with financial frictions shows these are critical for the amplification of TFP news shocks. The very similar quantitative dynamics implied by VAR and DSGE methodologies provides support for the `news view' of business cycles. |
| JEL: | E2 E3 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168066&r=cta |
| By: | Ning Fu; Donna B. Gilleskie; Shawn Kneipp; Todd Schwartz; Amanda Sheely |
| Abstract: | The authors study the collateral consequences of women's criminal records on their future employment, welfare participation, and health outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Criminal behavior |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:076c7c96e69042ea8a73646bf07237b0&r=cta |
| By: | Anthony Yezer (George Washington University) |
| Abstract: | When the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act was passed in 1975, it required selected depository institutions to report limited data from mortgage applications. This was collected and processed by the Federal Reserve Board in accordance with Regulation C. A subset of the reported information was then disclosed to the public. At the time, it was difficult to determine the identity of individual respondents in HMDA data. Since that time four things have changed. First, reporting requirements have been expanded to an increasing range of lenders. Second, the personal information reported and revealed has expanded. Third, over 30% of home purchases do not involve a HMDA reported mortgage and mortgage lending is increasingly internet based. Fourth, modern computing and big data techniques now allow the HMDA data releases to be matched with the names of individual borrowers in a fashion that violates standards for privacy established by the U.S. Bureau of the Census and appears to violate privacy standards of HMDA itself. Lack of privacy is particularly a problem for minority borrowers for whom the “risk†of re-identification is a virtual certainty. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2017-21&r=cta |
| By: | Beyene Gizaw |
| Abstract: | Countries around the world have taken a number of lessons from the challenges they faced while implementing the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). These lessons added significant value while designing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Like other countries, Ethiopia has prepared a medium-term plan – the Second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II), covering the period from 2015 to 2020 – which forms an integral part of the country’s post-2015 development agenda. The present study investigates the implications of implementing the SDGs in Ethiopia, focusing on identifying potential implementation challenges at the national level. It aims at articulating the framework that national stakeholders will need to undertake in order to implement the SDGs in the country. It conducted a rigorous review of documents and interviews with relevant stakeholders to assess the challenges of implementing the SDGs within the context of GTP II. It finds that capacity limitations, financial shortages and the weak policy environment, including leadership, coordination and management challenges, are the most critical factors. It will take concerted efforts on the part of the government, the donor community, civil society organisations (CSOs) and the private sector to resolve these issues, and increase Ethiopia’s ability to implement the new development agenda effectively. |
| Keywords: | Ethiopia, Second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II), SDG implementation challenges, Central Statistical Agency |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svo:opaper:42&r=cta |
| By: | Donner, Herman (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Using a dataset with individual appraisals of foreclosed apartments sold through auction in Stockholm, Sweden, the issue of selection bias and a potential overestimation of a foreclosure related discount on price is addressed. A mean discount of 7.9% with a corresponding median value of 9.5% is shown. A hedonic model is also applied. It is found that about half of the impact on price caused by a forced sale is attributable to the search process on the real estate market. These results contrasts from earlier research having explained a negative impact on price to seller motivational factors. These results provide insight towards the dynamics of a negative impact on price caused by a forced sale, and has the potential to allow stakeholders to model a potential discount in greater detail for individual foreclosed properties, and contribute to management of credit risk. |
| Keywords: | Foreclosure; Hedonic Models |
| JEL: | D80 D82 R30 R31 |
| Date: | 2017–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:kthrec:2017_002&r=cta |
| By: | León, Dorian Fernando |
| Abstract: | The conceptual framework of the capability approach proposed by Amartya Sen has never been used specifically in the dynamics of forced displacement or in the analysis of the quality of life of the population victims of the Colombian armed conflict. Reason why, this article affirms that the approach of capabilities agrees with the differential approach proposed by the Colombian Constitutional Court. Consequently, the objective is to provide a conceptual aproximation to the Amartya Sen’s capability approach and differential approach proposed by the from Colombia Constitutional Court and to point out that the capability approach is relevant in the design, implementation and evaluation of public policies directed at the victim population. Similarly, recent data on the dynamics of forced displacement in the city of Bucaramanga (Colombia) are provided. |
| Keywords: | capability approach,forced displacement,colombian armed conflict |
| JEL: | I31 I32 D63 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:170474&r=cta |
| By: | K. Ali Akkemik; Mehmet Bulut; Marcus Dittrich; Koray Göksal; Kristina Leipold; Masao Ogaki |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine and compare the impact of cultural differences on intergenerational altruism in Turkish people living in Turkey and in Germany, using the anthropological concept of worldview. Data were gathered from four surveys: nationwide surveys in Turkey and Germany, an online survey of Turkish people living in Germany, and a survey conducted as an experiment in a mosque attended by Turkish people in Germany. We find striking differences in parenting attitudes between Turkish people living in Turkey and those who live in Germany. Turkish people living in Germany tend to resemble German people in their parenting attitudes. We also find that differences in confidence attached to worldview beliefs, differences in religiosity, and the subjective probabilities attached to worldview beliefs (such as “All humans evolved from another living organism†) between Turkish people living in Turkey and those in Germany have statistically significant explanatory power for these differences in parenting attitudes. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational altruism, worldviews, religion, tough love, spoiling love |
| JEL: | Z10 Z12 D64 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6404&r=cta |
| By: | Jingshi Liu (Department of Marketing, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Amy N. Dalton (Department of Marketing, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Jiewen Hong (Department of Marketing, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | This research examines how consumers feel when they use counterfeits, and how these feelings affect purchase intentions toward counterfeits and genuine brands. We find that counterfeit users experience mixed emotions, stemming from concerns about the signals the counterfeit might send to others. Accordingly, mixed emotions are stronger in public versus private settings, and among consumers chronically concerned about social signaling (i.e., consumers high in social-adjustive motives). Because mixed emotions can be unpleasant, counterfeit users subsequently gravitate away from counterfeits and toward genuine brands (which communicate largely positive social signals and thus elicit no mixed emotions). In this manner, counterfeit consumption may drive demand for genuine brands. A final experiment tests implications for reducing counterfeit consumption. As predicted, consumers exposed to anti-counterfeiting advertisements designed to elicit mixed emotions are willing to pay a higher price premium for genuine over counterfeit products. Collectively, these findings identify the emotional consequences of counterfeit consumption and highlight that an effective way to understand and reduce counterfeit consumption is to focus on the social context in which many counterfeits are used. |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:wpaper:201742&r=cta |
| By: | Duoduo Xu (Division of Social Science, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Advanced Study, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Xiaogang Wu (Division of Social Science, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | The impact of market transition on the changing order of social stratification in post-socialist regimes has been a highly prominent topic in sociology in recent decades. However, the debate has yielded no concrete conclusions, due in part to the lack of substantive institutional analysis. In this article, we aim to provide new answers to this age-old question by specifically examining how the economic opportunities available to former political elites have been shaped by the process of privatization. Based on firm-level data from a national representative survey on Chinese private enterprises, we show that nomenclatures in some regions successfully converted their political power into personal wealth by acquiring privatized firms, and the extent to which they could exploit the opportunities available to them was contingent upon how the privatization process was structured and regulated in a local context. Further analysis reveals important institutionalized inequality among private entrepreneurs, with former nomenclatures at the top of the social hierarchy in post-reform China. |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:wpaper:201745&r=cta |
| By: | Nataliya N. Matveeva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Oleg V. Poldin (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The most common quantitative estimates of scientific performance are based on citation indices, and it is meaningful to identify what affects these indicators. In this work, we analyze the correlations between the citation characteristics of researchers and their co-authorship network parameters, which indicate the position of scientists in an academic network. To surpass the shortcoming of previous works we use a large sample and separate researchers by the year of their first citation. For constructing a co-authorship network, we used data about researchers from different disciplines, who have profiles in Google Scholar. The results of a count data regression model indicate that citations positively correlate with the number of co-authors, with position of the researcher in the co-authorship network (closeness centrality), and with the average number of co-author' citation. Also we reveal that the h-index and the i10-index are significantly associated with the number of co-authors and the average number of co-author citations. Based on these results, we can conclude that researchers who maintain more contacts and are more active than others have better bibliometric indicators on the average |
| Keywords: | co-authorship network; bibliometric analysis; Google Scholar; count data models |
| JEL: | A14 D83 Z13 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:44edu2017&r=cta |
| By: | Kürschner, Kathleen |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits the natural experiment provided by the unexpected disintegration of socialist East Germany to study the impact that immigration has on residential housing rents in recipient regions. Using a spatial correlation approach, annual district-level migration data and rental price indicators, we find strong evidence for a positive and sizeable effect of immigration on housing rents. An exploration of exogenous origin-region push factors yields IV estimates of even larger magnitude. |
| JEL: | J61 R21 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168092&r=cta |
| By: | Enrico D'Elia; Alessandra Righi |
| Abstract: | A special qualitative questionnaire attached to the Business Surveys carried on in February 2016 by Istat sheds some light on the labour demand after the Great Recession, also related to the output perspectives, the utilized productive capacity and the specific conditions and strategies of the firms. An ordered logit model is used to analyse the characteristics of the firms with different levels of employment response to a 10% permanent output increase. The first result is that the employment elasticity to output lies only between 0.10 and 0.25, with little differences by sector and firm’s size. It could be a sign that labour intensity of output is low and possibly reducing (and that productivity is increasing as well), or that jobs are created mainly by newborn firms (necessarily underrepresented in the survey sample). The estimated models also support the relevance of thresholds in firm’s behavior. For instance, capacity utilization and firm’s size apparently raise employment only if the former exceeds 80%-90% and the latter 50 employed persons. However, the heterogeneity among firms’ labour intensity remains huge even after controlling for many firm’s specific factors. It follows that one-size-fits-all incentives are expectedly inefficient. |
| Keywords: | Ordered Logit Model, Labour Demand, Business Survey, Firm’s Level Data |
| JEL: | D22 J23 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:itt:wpaper:wp2017-1&r=cta |
| By: | Levrero, Enrico Sergio; Deleidi, Matteo |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to assess – on both theoretical and empirical grounds – the two main views regarding the money creation process,namely the endogenous and exogenous money approaches. After analysing the main issues and the related empirical literature, we will apply a VAR and VECM methodology to the United States in the period 1959-2016 to assess the causal relationship between a number of critical variables that are supposed to determine the money supply, i.e., the monetary base, bank deposits and bank loans. The empirical analysis carried out supports several propositions of the endogenous money approach. In particular, it shows that for the United States in the years 1959-2016 (i) bank loans determine bank deposits and (ii) bank deposits in turn determine the monetary base. Our conclusion is that money supply is mainly determined endogenously by the lending activity of commercial banks. |
| Keywords: | Money endogeneity; USA; Money Supply |
| JEL: | C32 E40 E50 E51 G21 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81970&r=cta |
| By: | von Grebmer, Klaus; Bernstein, Jill; Hossain, Naomi; Brown, Tracy; Prasai, Nilam; Yohannes, Yisehac; Patterson, Fraser; Sonntag, Andrea; Zimmerman, Sophia-Maria; Towey, Olive; Foley, Connell |
| Abstract: | The 2017 Global Hunger Index (GHI) report—the twelfth in an annual series—presents a multidimensional measure of hunger at the global, regional, and national levels. It shows that the world has made progress in reducing hunger since 2000, but that this progress has been uneven, with levels of hunger still serious or alarming in 51 countries and extremely alarming in one country. This year’s report shines a light on the inequalities underlying hunger—including geographic, income, and gender inequality—and the inequalities of social, political, and economic power in which they are rooted. |
| Keywords: | Americas; South America; Europe; Asia; Africa South of Sahara; Africa; hunger; nutrition; health; malnutrition; gender; women; income; economic development; food policies; food security; nutrition security; inequality |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:synops:9780896292758&r=cta |
| By: | Emiel F.S. van Bezooijen; J.A. Bikker |
| Abstract: | In 2015, the European Commission (EC) launched its action plan for the creation of a European Capital Markets Union. The EC aims to return the European economy to sustainable growth and to enhance its shock absorbing capacity by reducing the reliance on bank finance and stimulating financial deepening and cross-border integration of Europe’s capital markets. Financial diversification and integrated European capital markets are expected to improve risk sharing among households, supporting economic stability. However, the economic literature reveals a lack of theoretical and empirical consensus on the superiority of either a bank-based or a market-based financial system in promoting growth or reducing macroeconomic volatility. This paper is the first to include bond markets in its financial structure indicators, besides stock markets and bank lending. Using panel data on 55 countries between 1975 and 2014 and three different measures of financial structure, we investigate the effect of the structure of the financial system on the volatility of output and investment growth as well as their cyclical components. We do not find evidence that market-based financial structures dampen volatility of output or overall investment. Increase of the stock market size relative to that of the banking sector has a significant positive effect on the business cycle volatility of investments. |
| Keywords: | financial developmen, financial system structure, macroeconomic volatility, market-based finance, bank-based finance, capital market integration, business cycle |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:1713&r=cta |
| By: | Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago); Humphries, John Eric (Yale University); Veramendi, Gregory (Arizona State University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the non-market benefits of education and ability. Using a dynamic model of educational choice we estimate returns to education that account for selection bias and sorting on gains. We investigate a range of non-market outcomes including incarceration, mental health, voter participation, trust, and participation in welfare. We find distinct patterns of returns that depend on the levels of schooling and ability. Unlike the monetary benefits of education, the benefits to education for many non-market outcomes are greater for low-ability persons. College graduation decreases welfare use, lowers depression, and raises self-esteem more for less-able individuals. |
| Keywords: | education and inequality, returns to education, government policy, health and inequality, household behavior and family economics |
| JEL: | I24 I28 I14 D1 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11047&r=cta |
| By: | Matthew Freedman (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine); Annemarie Kuhns (US Department of Agriculture) |
| Abstract: | In an effort to improve diet and health outcomes, policymakers have increasingly turned to supply-side subsidies aimed at encouraging investment by supermarkets and other food retailers in low-income areas. This paper examines whether the U.S. federal government’s New Markets Tax Credit (NMTC) has affected the entry of retail food establishments, and in turn food shopping and purchasing patterns, in low-income communities. To identify the impacts of the program, we take advantage of a discontinuity in NMTC funding generated by the formula used to determine the eligibility of census tracts for investment under the program. We find that the NMTC Program has had modest, but positive impacts on supermarket entry in low-income communities. Based on household-level scanner data, there are no detectable effects on households’ food purchasing patterns in affected neighborhoods, at least in the short run. |
| Keywords: | Place-based policies; Retail food; Tax incentives; Community health; Regression discontinuity |
| JEL: | H25 I18 R23 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irv:wpaper:171804&r=cta |
| By: | Mengyuan Zhou (Graduate School of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at examining what are causing differences in altruistic bequest motive between Japanese and American parents. The evidence shows that the Americans are more altruistic than Japanese, and there is a significant difference between these two countries when all the other socio-economic variables controlled. Gender, household income, age and faith in religion have a significant impact on respondents'bequest motive. The Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition shows that more than 95% of the difference is explained by the differences in coefficients instead of the endowment effect. |
| Keywords: | Altruism, Self-interest, Bequest Motive |
| JEL: | D12 D64 P52 |
| Date: | 2017–09–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2017-024&r=cta |
| By: | Anna Maria Mayda; Francesc Ortega; Giovanni Peri; Kevin Shih; Chad Sparber |
| Abstract: | The H-1B program allows skilled foreign-born individuals to work in the United States. The annual quota on new H-1B visa issuances fell from 195,000 to 65,000 for employees of most firms in fiscal year 2004. However, this cap did not apply to new employees of colleges, universities, and non-profit research institutions. Additionally, existing H-1B holders seeking to renew their visa were also exempt from the quota. Using a triple difference approach, this paper demonstrates that cap restrictions significantly reduced the employment of new H-1B workers in for-profit firms relative to what would have occurred in an unconstrained environment. Employment of similar native workers in for profit firms did not change, however, consistently with a low degree of substitutability between H1B and native workers. The restriction also redistributed H-1Bs toward computer-related occupations, Indian-born workers, and firms using the H-1B program intensively. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O33 R10 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23902&r=cta |
| By: | Marc Ivaldi; Jiekai Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the advertising competition in the French broadcast television industry within a two-sided market framework. We use a unique dataset on the French broadcast television market including audience, prices, and quantities of advertising of twenty-one TV channels from March 2008 to December 2013. We specify a structural model of oligopoly competition and identify the shape and magnitude of the feedback loop between TV viewers and advertisers. We also implement a simple procedure to identify the conduct of firms on the market. We find that the nature of competition in the French TV advertising market is of the Cournot type. Further, we provide empirical evidence that the price-cost margin is not a good indicator of the market power of firms operating on two-sided markets. Finally, we provide a competition analysis. The counterfactual simulation suggests that the merger of advertising sales houses would not have significantly affected the equilibrium outcomes in this industry because of the strong network externalities between TV viewers and advertisers. These results provide a critical evaluation of the 2010 decision of the French competition authority to authorize the acquisition of two broadcast TV channels by a large media group under behavioral remedies. |
| Keywords: | advertising, competition, media, TV, two-sided market, market conduct |
| JEL: | D22 K21 L13 L22 L41 M37 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6461&r=cta |
| By: | Sirus Dehdari; Kai Gehring |
| Abstract: | We exploit the fact that disagreements in the German leadership after the Franco-Prussian War in 1870 led to a quasi-exogenous division of Alsace and Lorraine to provide rare evidence of group identity formation within historically homogeneous regions. In line with the rejection-identification hypothesis, people in the treated area which experienced a change in nation-status and were exposed to repressive homogenization policies express a stronger regional identity and support more regional autonomy today. On average, subjects with a stronger regional also express a stronger European identity, which we exploit in a regression discontinuity design at the municipal level to reveal whether these identity differences are causal. We find that support for the European Union is significantly stronger in two crucial referenda, a result that is robust across different specifications and bandwidths, and not driven by language differences, large agglomerations or distance to foreign countries. The effect seems to be the strongest for the first two age cohorts after World War II and diminishes for later generations. |
| Keywords: | group identity, identity formation, homogenization policies, assimilation, rejection-identification hypothesis, persistence of preferences, Alsace-Lorraine |
| JEL: | D91 H70 H80 N40 Z19 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6556&r=cta |
| By: | Serge REY; Sofiane HAZEM |
| Abstract: | On s’intéresse à l’impact de la productivité sur la dynamique de la croissance économique en Algérie sur la période 1984-2015. Le premier objectif de cet article a été de mesurer cette productivité à la fois pour l’ensemble de l’économie et pour différents secteurs. On a ensuite procédé à des estimations originales du stock de capital en s’appuyant sur la méthode de l’inventaire permanent, ce qui a permis de déduire les évolutions de la productivité globale des facteurs. A partir de ces estimations, on montre que si globalement l’économie algérienne a connu d’assez bonnes performances en matière de croissance économique, cela a été plus le résultat d’une augmentation des facteurs de productions, essentiellement de la main d’oeuvre, que de la croissance de la productivité du travail qui a été très limitée. Ce résultat reflète en partie les faibles performances du secteur des hydrocarbures qui a connu une diminution de la productivité du travail depuis le début des années 2000, tandis que d’autres secteurs comme l’agriculture ont connu à l’inverse de forts gains de productivité. This paper addresses the empirical question of whether the productivity can help explain economic growth dynamics in Algeria over the 1984-2015 period. The first objective of this article is to measure productivity for both the economy as a whole and for different sectors. Then original estimates of the capital stock are made using the permanent inventory method, which led to inferring evolutions in total factor productivity. On the basis of these estimates, it is shown that while the Algerian economy as a whole has performed fairly well in terms of economic growth, this was more the result of an increase in production factors, i.e. labor force, than of labor productivity growth, which was very limited. This partly reflects the weak performance of the hydrocarbons sector, which has experienced a decline in labor productivity since the early 2000s, while other sectors such as agriculture have experienced strong productivity gains. |
| Keywords: | Growth rate, Algeria, hydrocarbons, labor productivity, TFP |
| JEL: | D24 O14 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tac:wpaper:2017-2018_2&r=cta |
| By: | Francesco Crespi; Dario Guarascio |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes, empirically, the link between public procurement and innovation activities by taking into account the moderating effect played by import penetration on public procurement. Using industry-level information on patent applications for 24 countries over the period 1995-2012, we test the impact of public procurement on innovation activities and whether and in which direction import penetration on public procurement impacts on patenting. The econometric analysis relies on Poisson regression techniques aiming to investigate the correlation between patent counts, supply as well as demand-side determinants, controlling for country and sector heterogeneity. The obtained results confirm our main hypotheses. The dynamics of patenting is positively affected by the public procurement while a high degree of import penetration reduces the innovation enhancing effect exerted by public demand. Our results suggest that public demand may represent an effective tool for industrial policy to stimulate innovative activities, to shape the transformation of production systems and to foster industrial renewal. Moreover, the empirical evidence shows that the strategy regarding the degree of openness in public procurement towards non-domestic firms is a crucial policy choice capable of affecting the innovative potential of public demand. |
| Keywords: | Public procurement, innovation policy, demand-side innovation policy |
| Date: | 2017–09–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2017/20&r=cta |
| By: | Victor Chernozhukov; Ivan Fernandez-Val; Ye Luo |
| Abstract: | The partial (ceteris paribus) effects of interest in nonlinear and interactive linear models are heterogeneous as they can vary dramatically with the underlying observed or unobserved covariates. Despite the apparent importance of heterogeneity, a common practice in modern empirical work is to largely ignore it by reporting average partial effects (or, at best, average effects for some groups, see e.g. Angrist and Pischke, 2008). While average effects provide very convenient scalar summaries of typical effects, by definition they fail to reflect the entire variety of the heterogenous effects. In order to discover these effects much more fully, we propose to estimate and report sorted effects - a collection of estimated partial effects sorted in increasing order and indexed by percentiles. By construction the sorted effect curves completely represent and help visualize all of the heterogeneous effects in one plot. They are as convenient and easy to report in practice as the conventional average partial effects. We also provide a quantification of uncertainty (standard errors and confidence bands) for the estimated sorted effects. We apply the sorted effects method to demonstrate several striking patterns of gender-based discrimination in wages, and of race-based discrimination in mortgage lending. |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1512.05635&r=cta |
| By: | Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay; Madhurima Bhattacharyay |
| Abstract: | Asia, particularly its major economies has witnessed slower growth in recent years. To make Asia more economically sustainable and resilient against external shocks to recover from the falling growth, most regional economies need to rebalance their export-oriented (mostly to advanced economies) production and growth towards Asian markets and regional demand, and trade-driven growth through increased intraregional infrastructure connectivity and regional economic integration. In 1992, a pan-Asian transport connectivity was initiated through, Asian Highway Network and Trans-Asian Railways Network. In 2015, an ambitious pan-Asian connectivity initiative, namely “One Belt, One Road†(ancient silk road) initiative has been proposed. This initiative plans to create an economic zone covering Asia, Europe and Africa. To successfully promote and finance greater physical connectivity, at the pan-Asian, sub-regional and national levels, Asia will require a strong and appropriate institutional framework for effective coordination, cooperation and collaboration among national, subregional, and region-wide institutions as well as other stakeholders. This paper discusses the prospects and challenges facing Asian connectivity as well as infrastructure financing needs in Asia. It also examines the nature and characteristics of existing and new institutions and the emerging role of regional and international institutions for enhancing Asian connectivity. Lastly, it proposes an institutional architecture consisting of new “Asian Infrastructure Coordination Facility (AICF)†involving major stakeholders for building a seamless pan-Asian connectivity through bilateral, regional and international cooperation, partnership and collaboration in infrastructure development. |
| Keywords: | Asia, connectivity, hard and soft infrastructure, bilateral, regional and international institutions, inclusive and sustainable infrastructure, infrastructure financing, institutional architecture, financial instruments, bilateral and multilateral development banks |
| JEL: | R10 R40 R42 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6422&r=cta |
| By: | Zheng, Liang; Zhao, Zhong |
| Abstract: | Since Chinese government initiated economic reform in the late 1970s, entrepreneurship and private sectors have emerged gradually and played an increasingly important role in promoting economic growth. However, entrepreneurship is distributed unevenly in China. Using micro data from 2008 economic census and 2005 population census, this paper explains spatial clusters of entrepreneurship for both manufacturing and services. For both sectors, entrepreneurship (measured by new private firms) tends to emerge in places with more relevant upstream and downstream firms. Moreover, Chinitz's (1961) theories are also supported for manufacturing: small upstream and downstream firms seem to be more important for manufacturing entrepreneurship. For both sectors, entrepreneurship is positively related to city size, the share of young adults and the elderly population, and foreign direct investment. More migrants are also found to promote service entrepreneurship. Our paper is the first to consider both manufacturing and service entrepreneurship in China and should be of interest to both local and national policymakers who plan to encourage entrepreneurship. |
| Keywords: | New Firm Formation,Entrepreneurship,Marshallian Effect,Chinitz Effect,China |
| JEL: | L26 L60 L80 R10 R12 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:127&r=cta |
| By: | Douglas Gollin; Martina Kirchberger; David Lagakos |
| Abstract: | In most developing countries, there is a large gap in average consumption per capita between urban and rural areas. One appealing interpretation of this gap is that it reflects a spatial equilibrium, in which the higher consumption levels of urban areas are offset by lower non-monetary amenities. In this paper, we draw on new high-resolution evidence to document how non-monetary amenities vary across space within 20 developing countries. We focus on measures of health, public goods, crime and pollution. These vary substantially across locations within countries and can be carefully measured with highly comparable data. We find that in almost all countries, and for almost all measures, the quality of these amenities is non-decreasing in population density. In addition, net internal migration flows are directed toward denser areas in every country. These findings are hard to reconcile with a spatial equilibrium. Instead, they suggest that developing countries are undergoing a reallocation of workers to densely populated areas, consistent with many models of structural change but inconsistent with models that assume a simple static spatial equilibrium. |
| JEL: | E0 O11 O18 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23916&r=cta |
| By: | Giulio Bottazzi; Le Li; Angelo Secchi |
| Abstract: | We propose an aggregate growth index that explicitly accounts for non-normality in the micro-economic distribution of firm growth rates and for the presence of a negative scaling relation between their volatility and the size of the firm. Using Compustat data on US publicly traded company, we show that the new index tracks aggregate fluctuations better than the sample average, confirming that the statistical properties characterizing the micro-economic dynamics of firms are relevant for the dynamics of the aggregate. To better characterize the origins of aggregate fluctuations, we decompose the index in two parts, describing respectively the modal (typical) value of growth rates and the tilt (asymmetry) of their distribution. Regression analysis shows that models based on this decomposition, despite their simplicity, possess a remarkable explanatory and predictive power with respect to the aggregate growth. |
| Keywords: | Firm growth rates asymmetry and volatility; Aggregate economic fluctuations and business cycles; Aggregation of non-normal variables |
| Date: | 2017–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2017/24&r=cta |
| By: | James J. Heckman; John Eric Humphries; Gregory Veramendi |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the non-market benefits of education and ability. Using a dynamic model of educational choice we estimate returns to education that account for selection bias and sorting on gains. We investigate a range of non-market outcomes including incarceration, mental health, voter participation, trust, and participation in welfare. We find distinct patterns of returns that depend on the levels of schooling and ability. Unlike the monetary benefits of education, the benefits to education for many non-market outcomes are greater for low-ability persons. College graduation decreases welfare use, lowers depression, and raises self-esteem more for less-able individuals. |
| JEL: | D01 I14 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23896&r=cta |
| By: | Sara Amoroso (European Commission - JRC); Alex Coad (CENTRUM Católica Graduate Business School, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, Lima, Perú); Nicola Grassano (European Commission – JRC) |
| Abstract: | Recent empirical studies have investigated the territorial impact of Europe’s research policies, in particular the contribution of the European Framework Programmes to the integration of a European Research Area. This paper deepens the analysis on the integration and participation of peripheral regions, by focusing on the differences in intensity and determinants of inter-regional collaborations across three groups of collaborations. We consider collaborations among more developed regions, between more and less developed regions, and among less developed regions. Building on the recent spatial interaction literature, this paper investigates the effects of physical, institutional, social and technological proximity on the intensity of inter-regional research collaboration across heterogeneous European regions. We find that the impact of disparities in human capital and technological proximity on regional R&D cooperation is relevant and differs across subgroups of collaborations. Moreover, despite the efforts of integrating marginal actors, peripheral regions have lower rates of collaborations. |
| Keywords: | European Research Area, spatial interaction modelling, R&D collaboration, regional integration |
| JEL: | O38 L14 F15 R15 |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:wpaper:201705&r=cta |
| By: | Maam Suwadu Sakho-Jimbira; Ibrahima Hathie; Aminata Niang; M. Lamine Samake |
| Abstract: | This report presents the results of Phase II of the Post-2015 Data Test initiative. It aims to address the challenges and opportunities, identified in the pilot study, for measuring and implementing the SDGs. The report provides solutions, organised within a national plan of actions, that aim towards addressing data problems and proposing measures for an effective SDGs implementation. In Senegal, despite important efforts and investments that have been made regarding the national statistical system, many challenges still remain, including the access, availability, reliability, and financing of data for monitor the SDGs. These gaps risk compromising the monitoring and implementation of the SDGs. Therefore to address sustainable development challenges by 2030, it is crucial to involve all national stakeholders as the means of implementation, including financing, human resources and reliable data. This report recommends, through an inclusive plan of action, concrete proposals that are consistent with national needs yet responsive to international challenges. A first recommendation is to ensure a strong political leadership and commitment from key decision-makers. This will facilitate a good ownership of the SDGs, and therefore their alignment with the Senegal’s new economic and social policy framework. Another recommendation is to establish efficient SDG monitoring and evaluation mechanisms, through an operationalisation of the Harmonised Monitoring-Evaluation Framework; bringing together the monitoring of SDG indicators and PSE indicators. In addition, capacity should be built for ensuring the production of quality data on SDGs, by deepening the present work on mapping data sources during the Data Test study. A key recommendation is to promote the domestic resource mobilisation, through the development of public-private partnership or the creation of an annual budget line dedicated to the production of sectorial statistics. Finally, an effective communication is required on SDGs and their data-related needs in order to develop a strong sense of national ownership. |
| Keywords: | Senegal, measuring SDGs, data gaps, political leadership and commitment, Harmonised Monitoring-Evaluation Framework, domestic resource mobilisation, Plan for Emerging Senegal (PSE) |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svo:opaper:37&r=cta |
| By: | Raquel A. Ramos (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN)) |
| Abstract: | The currencies of a few emerging market economies (EME) have being following a specific dynamic since the early 2000s: they are strongly connected to financial markets internationally, appreciating in moments of tranquility and presenting sharp depreciations in peaks of uncertainty. What is the mechanism behind this specific dynamic that contradicts mainstream exchange-rate theories? To answer this question, this article applies the Minskyan framework to the context of money managers and their portfolio allocation decisions. The approach allows the analysis of these currencies through money managers’ decisions, putting forward that these might float according to their balance-sheet constraints - reasons not related to the currencies themselves, but to money managers’ assets, liabilities, and currency mismatch. The result is a dynamic characterized by deviation-amplifying system, the opposite of the equilibrium-seeking mechanism needed for clearing markets, and high frequency of depreciations associated to the global extent of these institutions’ balance-sheet. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rates, emerging market economies, Minsky |
| JEL: | F41 F31 B50 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upn:wpaper:2017-18&r=cta |
| By: | Axel Dreher; Martin Gassebner; Paul Schaudt |
| Abstract: | We analyze the causal effect of the stock of foreigners residing in a country on the probability of a terrorist attack in that country. Our instrument for the stock of foreigners relies on the interactions of two sets of variables. Variation across host-origin-dyads results from structural characteristics between the country of origin and the host, while variation over time makes use of changes in push and pull factors between host and origin countries resulting from natural disasters. Using data for 20 OECD host countries and 183 countries of origin over the 1980- 2010 period we show that the probability of a terrorist attack increases with a larger number of foreigners living in a country. However, this scale effect is not larger than the effect domestic populations have on domestic terror. We find scarce evidence that terror is systematically imported from countries with large Muslim populations or countries where terror prevails. Policies that exclude foreigners already living in a country increase rather than reduce the risk that foreign populations turn violent, and so do terrorist attacks against foreigners in their host country. High skilled migrants are associated with a significantly lower risk of terror compared to low skilled ones, while there is no significant difference between male and female migrants. |
| Keywords: | terrorism, migration, migration policy |
| JEL: | D74 F22 F52 P48 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6441&r=cta |
| By: | Marotzke, Petra; Anderton, Robert; Bairrao, Ana; Berson, Clémence; Tóth, Peter |
| Abstract: | We explore the impact of wage adjustment on employment with a focus on the role of downward nominal wage rigidities. We use a harmonised survey dataset, which covers 25 European countries in the period 2010-2013. These data are particularly useful for this paper given the firm-level information on the change in economic conditions and collective pay agreements. Our findings confirm the presence of wage rigidities in Europe: first, collective pay agreements reduce the probability of downward wage adjustment; second, the rise in the probability of downward base wage responses following a decrease in demand is significantly smaller than the rise in the probability of an upward wage response associated with an increase in demand. Estimation results point to a negative effect of downward wage rigidities on employment at the firm level. JEL Classification: J23, J30 |
| Keywords: | demand shocks, employment, wage rigidity |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172103&r=cta |
| By: | Masafumi Nakano (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Akihiko Takahashi (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Soichiro Takahashi (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new state space approach to adaptive fuzzy modeling under the dynamic environment, where Bayesian filtering sequentially learns the model parameters including model structures themselves as state variables. In particular, our approach specifies the state transitions as meanreversion processes, which intends to incorporate and extend the established state-of-art learning techniques as follows: First, the mean-reversion levels of model parameters are determined by applying some existing learning method to a training period. Next, filtering implementation over test data enables on-line estimation of the parameters, where the estimates are adaptively tuned for each new data arrival based on the obtained reliable learning result. In this work, we concretely design a Takagi-Sugeno- Kang fuzzy model for financial investment, whose parameters follow autoregressive processes with the mean-reversion levels decided by particle swarm optimization. Since there exist Monte Carlo simulation-based algorithms called particle filtering, our methodology is applicable to a quite general setting including non-linearity, which actually arises in our investment problem. Then, an out-of-sample numerical experiment with security price data successfully demonstrates its effectiveness. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2017cf1067&r=cta |
| By: | Massimo Anelli; Kevin Shih; Kevin Williams |
| Abstract: | Since the 1980s the United States has faced growing disinterest and high attrition from STEM majors. Over the same period, foreign-born enrollment in U.S. higher education has increased steadily. This paper examines whether foreign-born peers affect the likelihood American college students graduate with a STEM major. Using administrative student records from a large public university in California, we exploit idiosyncratic variation in the share of foreign peers across introductory math courses taught by the same professor over time. Results indicate that a 1 standard deviation increase in foreign peers reduces the likelihood native-born students graduate with STEM majors by 3 percentage points–equivalent to 3.7 native students displaced for 9 additional foreign students in an average course. STEM displacement is offset by an increased likelihood of choosing Social Science majors. However, the earnings prospects of displaced students are minimally affected as they appear to be choosing Social Science majors with equally high earning power. We demonstrate that comparative advantage and linguistic dissonance may operate as underlying mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | immigration, peer effects, higher education, college major, STEM |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I28 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6466&r=cta |
| By: | Su, Yaqin (Hunan University); Tesfazion, Petros (Central College); Zhao, Zhong (Renmin University of China) |
| Abstract: | Using a representative sample of rural migrants in cities, this paper investigates where the migrants in urban China come from, paying close attention to intra-provincial vs. inter-provincial migrants, and examining the differences in their personal attributes. We find that migrants who have come within the province differ significantly from those who have come from outside of the province. Using a nested logit model, we find that overall, higher wage differentials, larger population size, higher GDP per capita, and faster employment growth rate are the attributes of a city that attract migrants from both within and outside province. In addition, moving beyond one's home province has a strong deterrent effect on migration, analogous to the "border effect" identified in international migration studies. We also explore the role of culture, institutional barrier, and dialect in explaining such a pronounced "border effect". |
| Keywords: | rural-urban migration, inter- vs. intra-provincial migration, border effect, China |
| JEL: | J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11029&r=cta |
| By: | Amey Sapre (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy); Rajeswari Sengupta (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study revisions in the annual estimates of India's GDP data. The objective of our analysis is to understand the revision policy adopted by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) and the issues therein. Using historic data, we study the magnitude and quality of revisions in the aggregate as well as the sectoral GDP series. We analyze the computation of the sectoral revised estimates and compare the extent of revision in growth rates from the first release to the final estimate. To understand the magnitude of revisions, we compute the standard deviation of revisions in growth rates for each sector and use that to build confidence bands around the initial estimates. The confidence bands provide a means to understand the extent of variation in the final growth rate estimate, and at the same time, provide a mechanism to contain revisions. Based on our analysis, we highlight some of the major issues in CSO's revision policy. We outline possible solutions that can be implemented to improve the quality of GDP data revisions. We identify sectors with large variations in growth rates and argue that improving or changing the low quality indicators can help contain growth rate revisions and enhance the credibility of the estimates. |
| Keywords: | GDP, National Accounts, Revisions, India |
| JEL: | E00 E01 C18 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2017-015&r=cta |
| By: | Jessica M. Perkins; Rockli Kim; Aditi Krishna; Mark McGovern; Victor M. Aguayo; S.V. Subramanian |
| Abstract: | Stunting, caused by experiences of chronic nutritional deprivation, affects approximately 25% of children under age five globally (i.e., 156 million children). In this review, evidence of a relationship between stunting and child development in low- and middle-income countries is summarized, and issues for further research are discussed. We focus on studies that measured low height-for-age among children less than 5 years old as the exposure and gross/fine motor skills, psychosocial competencies, cognitive abilities, or schooling and learning milestones as the outcomes. This review highlights three key findings. First, the variability in child development tools and metrics used among studies and the differences in the timing and frequency of the assessments complicate comparisons across study findings. Second, considerable evidence from across many countries supports an association between stunting and poor child development despite methodological differences and heterogeneity in the magnitude of associations. Further, effect sizes differ by developmental domain with greater associations shown for cognitive/ schooling outcomes. How stunting influences child development, which domains of child development are more affected, and how the various domains of child development influence one another require further experimental research to test causal pathways. Finally, there is mixed evidence of the additive effect of nutrition and stimulation interventions on child development. However, understanding best methods for improving child developmental outcomes - either through nutrition programs or through integrated nutrition and psychosocial stimulation programs (or nutrition and other program interventions) - is a key area of further inquiry. Given that nearly 40% of children under age five suffer from loss of developmental potential - for which stunting is likely one of the key risk factors - reductions in stunting could have tremendous implications for child development and human capital formation, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. |
| Keywords: | Child development; Cognition; Stunting; Undernutrition; Gross motor; Fine motor; Psychosocial skills; Cognitive ability; Height |
| JEL: | I10 J10 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qub:charms:1705&r=cta |
| By: | Raphael A. Auer; Andrei A. Levchenko; Philip Sauré |
| Abstract: | We document that observed international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multi-country, industry-level dataset that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with international and domestic input-output linkages, we recover the underlying cost shocks that are propagated internationally via the global input-output network, thus generating the observed dynamics of PPI. We then compare the extent to which common global factors account for the variation in actual PPI and in the underlying cost shocks. Our main finding is that across a range of econometric tests, input-output linkages account for half of the global component of PPI inflation. We report three additional findings: (i) the results are similar when allowing for imperfect cost pass-through and demand complementarities; (ii) PPI synchronization across countries is driven primarily by common sectoral shocks and input-output linkages amplify co-movement primarily by propagating sectoral shocks; and (iii) the observed pattern of international input use preserves fat-tailed idiosyncratic shocks and thus leads to a fat-tailed distribution of inflation rates, i.e., periods of disination and high inflation. |
| Keywords: | international inflation synchronization, globalization, inflation, input linkages, monetary policy, global value chain, production structure, input-output linkages, supply chain |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 F02 F14 F33 F41 F42 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6395&r=cta |
| By: | Tavassoli, Sam (RMIT University); Trippl, Michaela (University of Vienna) |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to provide novel insights into the effects of ethnic communities on immigrants’ entrepreneurial activities. We investigate to what extent the decision of an employed immigrant to become an entrepreneur is associated with his or her embeddedness in ethnic networks in the host region. We capture such embeddedness through various mechanisms. Using longitudinal registered-data from Sweden and employing a Logit model, we find that merely being located in an ethnic community does not have an influence on immigrant entrepreneurship; rather what matters is being located in ethnic communities that have a high share of entrepreneurs themselves. |
| Keywords: | Immigrants; entrepreneurship; ethnic communities; embeddedness; social capital |
| JEL: | D83 J61 M13 |
| Date: | 2017–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2017_017&r=cta |
| By: | Debapriya Bhattacharya; Refaya Rashmin; Ashraful Haque Mahfuze |
| Abstract: | Effective development cooperation with sufficient accountability amongst the different stakeholders is expected to play a more vital role in the global development process. In this context, the paper aims to locate possible integration of the Global Partnership for Effective Development Cooperation (GPEDC) Monitoring Framework in the context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Addis Ababa Action Agenda (AAAA) with a view to strengthen accountability in development cooperation. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the 2030 Agenda has a very ambitious set of targets which include complete elimination of absolute poverty by 2030, while the AAAA provides a set of means which will enable this to happen, including financing and promoting trade as an engine for development. In order to find the interface between the GPEDC Monitoring Framework with these two processes, the anticipated behaviour and the operational changes required by the stakeholders for the realisation of these two agendas were analysed from the perspective of the theory of change. It has been found that two GPEDC indicators are directly linked to respective SDG targets, but most are partially linked, and these will be discussed in detail. In the context of the AAAA, only one GPEDC target is not consistent with the AAAA while the other nine have direct linkage. Therefore, the GPEDC Monitoring Framework can serve as a complementary system for reviewing the means of implementing the SDGs related to development cooperation. |
| Keywords: | Addis Ababa Action Agenda (AAAA), GPEDC Monitoring Framework, Agenda 2030, official development assistance (ODA), inclusive global development partnerships, accountability and transparency |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svo:opaper:29&r=cta |
| By: | Čuveljak, Jelena; Rašić, Mario |
| Abstract: | Since difficulties during business are an integral part of entrepreneurship, the Croatian legislative offers several restructuring models for companies who have business issues. The pre-bankruptcy agreement is available in cases when the debtor is threatened by insolvency and during this procedure, the business of the company is still managed by the existing management board. However, it is necessary that the pre-bankruptcy procedure is finished within a short deadline. The bankruptcy procedure is commenced on grounds of over-indebtedness and when in a state of incapacity to make payments, Future business is managed by the insolvency practitioner. The extraordinary administration procedure in companies of systemic importance for the Republic of Croatia is initiated in cases where large enterprises are faced with bankruptcy or pre-bankruptcy reasons. During this procedure, the business of the parent-company is conducted by the extraordinary trustee. Each of the aforementioned procedures (models) has its specifications and legal consequences for all stakeholders involved (debtor, management board and creditors). This paper will use the comparative legal research methodology to analyze the differences between them: the grounds for commencing the procedures, continuing company’s business operations, deadlines and the aftermaths for the creditors and shareholders of the company. The focus of the paper will be to demonstrate that each procedure can preserve financially positive business of the companies in problems. Several legal models should enable timely restructuring of companies, which can secure the safety of sustainable businesses and help create and maintain employment, while also can reduce the risk in the finance sector connected with converting loans to poor credits. However, the success of the negotiations with relevant stakeholders, namely creditors, and the percentage of creditor’s payment returns largely depend on early detection of business problems and prompt opening of appropriate proceedings. |
| Keywords: | insolvency,bankruptcy,pre-insolvency,restructuring in bankruptcy,extraordinary administration |
| JEL: | K22 K20 L53 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:129&r=cta |
| By: | Moritz Kuhn; Moritz Schularick; Ulrike I. Steins |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the distribution of U.S. household income and wealth over the past seven decades. We introduce a newly compiled household-level dataset based on archival data from historical waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). Complementing recent work on top income and wealth shares, the long-run survey data give a granular picture of trends in the bottom 90% of the population. The new data confirm a substantial widening of income and wealth disparities since the 1970s. We show that the main loser of rising income and wealth concentration at the top was the American middle class – households between the 25th and 75th percentile of the distribution. The household data also reveal that the paths of income and wealth inequality deviated substantially. Differences in the composition of household portfolios along the wealth distribution explain this divergence. While incomes stagnated, the middle class enjoyed substantial gains in housing wealth from highly concentrated and leveraged portfolios, mitigating wealth concentration at the top. The housing bust of 2007 put an end to this counterbalancing effect and triggered the largest spike in wealth inequality in postwar history. Our findings highlight the importance of portfolio composition, leverage and asset prices for wealth dynamics in postwar America. |
| Keywords: | income and wealth inequality, household portfolios, historical micro data |
| JEL: | D31 E21 E44 N32 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6608&r=cta |
| By: | Nguyen, Cuong |
| Abstract: | This study investigates several determinants of children’s education in Vietnam. It finds an important role of living with both parents on. More specifically, children in households without either parent, due to divorce or death of parents, have lower enrollment rates than other children. Importantly, the effect on children of divorce of parents is even higher than the effect of parental death. Children with parents who migrate also have lower enrollment rates compared to children living in households where parents do not migrate. The study also shows correlation between inter-ethnic marriage and children's education. Children in families in which one Kinh parent and one from an ethnic minority group, as well as children of parents from two different ethnic minorities, have higher school attendance rates than children with parents from the same ethnic minority group. |
| Keywords: | Children, Young, Education, Vietnam |
| JEL: | I1 J1 |
| Date: | 2016–08–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81828&r=cta |
| By: | Andrew Barker |
| Abstract: | New Zealand ranks highly on most indicators of well-being, but incomes are below the OECD average due to low labour productivity. Low labour productivity is only partly explained by the industry composition of the NZ economy and is primarily a consequence of sustained low multi-factor productivity growth within industries, as well as weak investment. Economic geography is an important factor in New Zealand’s poor productivity performance, as the small size and remoteness of the economy diminish its access to global markets, the scale and efficiency of domestic businesses, the level of competition, and the ability to benefit from innovation at the global frontier. Policy and institutions are generally supportive of productivity growth, but there are a number of areas where there is scope for reforms that would help offset the country’s geographical disadvantages and improve the welfare of New Zealanders over the coming decades. This includes promoting international connections, removing barriers to fixed capital investment (including taxation), accessing benefits from agglomeration by improving urban planning and infrastructure provision, enhancing competition and increasing investment in innovation and intangibles. This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of New Zealand (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-surve y-new-zealand.htm). |
| Keywords: | competition, economic geography, foreign investment, housing, innovation, investment |
| JEL: | E22 F21 O24 O38 O43 O47 R31 |
| Date: | 2017–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1419-en&r=cta |
| By: | Sadettin Haluk Citci (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University); Nazire Begen (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relation between macroeconomic experiences and job satisfaction. Specifically, we analyze whether former work entry conditions have persistent effects on job satisfaction. Pooled Ordinary Least Squares method is applied to eighteen waves of the British Household Panel Survey. In order to check robustness of the established results, we also use Fixed Effect and Ordered Probit Estimation techniques. The results of relationship between work entry unemployment rate and job satisfaction is found negatively statistically significant at rho=.01 level in all methods. Even controlling for important factors on job satisfaction, such as industry and occupation differences, age, gender and income, the negative and significant effect of work entry conditions on job satisfaction continues to survive. The established results indicate that people who entered workforce when unemployment rate is high has less job satisfaction even in later ages compared to the ones who entered workforce when unemployment rate is lower. |
| Keywords: | job satisfaction, workforce entry unemployment rate, subjective well-being, panel data models |
| JEL: | J28 J64 J81 |
| Date: | 2017–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:geb:wpaper:2017-03&r=cta |
| By: | Zhou, Haiwen |
| Abstract: | In ancient China, a ruler needed to handle both internal rebellions and external threats. To decrease the possibility of internal rebellions, a ruler could organize the government to establish the balance of power among ministers. While effective in preventing internal rebellions, this approach could make the defense of the country against external threats less effective. The tradeoff between preventing internal rebellions and dealing with external threats in a ruler’s choice of government organizational form is affected by the size of the population, the level of coordination efficiency, and the degree of increasing returns in the military sector. If the magnitude of external threats increases, regardless of the type of equilibrium organizational form, the equilibrium level of the concentration of power among division heads increases. |
| Keywords: | Government organizational form, feudalism, county system, Chinese history, balance of power |
| JEL: | N15 N45 P40 |
| Date: | 2017–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81945&r=cta |
| By: | Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh; Christophe Rault |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we evaluate the first-stage pass-through, namely the responsiveness of import prices to the exchange rate changes, for a sample of euro area (EA) countries. Our study aims to shed further light on the role of microeconomic factors vs. macroeconomic factors in influencing the extent of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). As a first step, we conduct a sectoral analysis using disaggregated import prices data. We find a much higher degree of pass-through for more homogeneous goods and commodities, such as oil and raw materials, than for highly differentiated manufactured products, such as machinery and transport equipment. Our results confirm that cross-country differences in pass-through rates may be due to divergences in the product composition of imports. The higher share of imports from sectors with lower degrees of pass-through, the lower ERPT for an economy will be. In a next step, we investigate for the impact of some macroeconomics factors or common events experienced by EA members on the extent of pass-through. Using the System Generalized Method of Moments within a dynamic panel-data model, our estimates indicate that decline of import-price sensitivity to the exchange rate is not significant since the introduction of the single currency. Our findings suggest instead that the weakness of the euro during the first three years of the monetary union significantly raised the extent of the ERPT. This outcome could explain why the sensitivity of import prices has not fallen since 1999. We also point out a significant role played by the inflation in the Eurozone, as the responsiveness of import prices to exchange rate fluctuations tends to decline in a low and more stable inflation environment. Overall, our findings support the view that the extent of pass-through is comprised of both macro- and microeconomic aspects that policymakers should take into account. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate pass-through, import prices, dynamic panel data |
| JEL: | E31 F31 F40 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6366&r=cta |
| By: | Gomez-Martinez, Francisco |
| Abstract: | A usual assumption in the theory of collusion is that cartels are all-inclusive. In contrast, most real-world collusive agreements do not include all firms that are active in the relevant industry. This paper studies both theoretically and experimentally the formation and behavior of partial cartels. The theoretical model is a variation of Bos and Harrington’s (2010) model where firms are heterogeneous in terms of production capacities and individual cartel decisions are endogenized. The experimental study has two main objectives. The first goal is examine whether partial cartels emerge in the lab at all, and if so, which firms are part of it. The second aim of the experiment is to study the coordinated effects of a merger when partial cartels are likely to operate. The experimental results can be summarized as follows. We find that cartels are typically not all-inclusive and that various types of partial cartels emerge. We observe that market prices decrease by 20% on average after a merger. Our findings suggest that merger analysis that is based on the assumption that only full cartels forms produces misleading results. Our analysis also illustrates how merger simulations in the lab can be seen as a useful tool for competition authorities to back up merger decisions. |
| Keywords: | Experiments,Bertrand oligopoly,Cartels,Mergers |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:169380&r=cta |
| By: | Deborah A. Cobb-Clark (School of Economics, The University of Sydney, ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course, and IZA Institute of Labor Economics); Sarah C. Dahmann (School of Economics, The University of Sydney, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course); Nicolás Salamanca (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne, ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course, and IZA Institute of Labor Economics); Anna Zhu (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne, ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course, and IZA Institute of Labor Economics) |
| Abstract: | We use variation in the extent of generational persistence across social assistance payments to shed light on the factors leading to intergenerational disadvantage. Our administrative data come from the Australian social security system and provide us with detailed social assistance trajectories – across the entire social safety net – for a birth cohort of young people and their families over an 18-year period. We find that young people are 1.8 times more likely to need social assistance if their parents have a history of receiving social assistance themselves. These young people also receive more intensive support; an additional $12,000 over an 8-year period. The intergenerational correlation is particularly strong in the case of disability payments, payments for those with caring responsibilities, and parenting payments for single parents. Disadvantage stemming from parents’ poor labor market outcomes seems to be easier for young people to overcome. This suggests that parental disadvantage may be more harmful to children’s later life outcomes if it is more strongly driven by circumstances rather than personal choice. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational correlations, socioeconomic disadvantage, social assistance |
| JEL: | H53 I38 J62 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2017n28&r=cta |
| By: | Jansson, Olle (Department of Economic History, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | The role and importance of employee organizations (i.e., unions) on policies concerning international migration have been studied extensively for decades. However, we know very little about the strategies of the organized interests of health care professionals. This paper will contribute to previous research, both internationally and in the Swedish context, on issues concerning the (re-)action of professional organizations towards migration reforms that might endanger the profession's control over their segment of the labor market. Through a study of the associations representing the two largest licensed health care professions in Sweden – physicians and nurses – the study investigates if, and how, they try to limit the competition in the labor market against reforms that are promoting increased mobility and international migration. The conclusions are mixed, suggesting that the long-term goals of professional associations are more important than strategies that might reduce the competition of foreign-educated practitioners in the short run. |
| Keywords: | international migration; regulated occupations; physicians; nurses; professionalism; migration policy; Sweden |
| JEL: | J44 J48 J51 J61 |
| Date: | 2017–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2017_018&r=cta |
| By: | Muhammad Aamir, Shahzad; Waqar, Akram; Muhammad, Khan |
| Abstract: | The wheat productivity in the Punjab is less than the potential maximum due to technical farm and management issues. The farm level panel survey data was used for the said purpose comprising 17 districts of the province of the Punjab from the period 2005-06 to 2007-08. The technical efficiency of wheat farms was analyzed using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach. Subsequently, the same was calculated by analyzing the socioeconomic factors responsible for (in) efficiency using Tobit Regression Model. The DEA didn’t accommodate statistical noise such as random shocks which were beyond the control of farmers. However, the technical efficiency of wheat farms was estimated using the DEA approach. The mean technical efficiency estimated through variable return to scale (VRS) was 60.13 percent and constant return to scale (CRS) was 56.61 percent. The results of analyses were supported by the literature. The technical efficiency could be improved by educating the young farmers, building road infrastructure and providing access to essential inputs to farmers. The study undertaken supports the argument that technically wheat farmers are less efficient in the Punjab, Pakistan. |
| Keywords: | Data Envelopment Analysis, Variable Return to Scale, Constant Return to Scale. |
| JEL: | Q12 Q18 |
| Date: | 2016–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81846&r=cta |
| By: | Angelo Antoci; Irene Brunetti; Pierluigi Sacco; Mauro Sodini |
| Abstract: | The issue of student evaluation of teachers (SET) has been explored by a large literature across many decades. However, the role of social influence factors in determining teachers' responses to a given incentive and evaluation framework has been left basically unexplored. This paper makes a first attempt in this vein by considering an evolutionary game-theoretic context where teachers face a two-stage process where their rating depends on both students' evaluation of their course and on retrospective students' evaluation of their teaching output in view of students' performance in a related follow-up course. We find that both high effort (difficult course offered) and low effort (easy course effort) outcomes may emerge, and that may either lead to a socially optimal outcome for teachers or not, according to cases. Moreover, there may be a potential conflict between the optimal outcome for students and for teachers. We also consider possible ways to generalize our model in future research. |
| Keywords: | Student evaluation of teachers (SET); teacher effort; teacher motivation; social selection; strategic interaction between teachers. |
| JEL: | I21 C73 D79 |
| Date: | 2017–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2017/225&r=cta |
| By: | Kasun Bandara; Christoph Bergmeir; Slawek Smyl |
| Abstract: | With the advent of Big Data, nowadays in many applications databases containing large quantities of similar time series are available. Forecasting time series in these domains with traditional univariate forecasting procedures leaves great potentials for producing accurate forecasts untapped. Recurrent neural networks, and in particular Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have proven recently that they are able to outperform state-of-the-art univariate time series forecasting methods in this context, when trained across all available time series. However, if the time series database is heterogeneous accuracy may degenerate, so that on the way towards fully automatic forecasting methods in this space, a notion of similarity between the time series needs to be built into the methods. To this end, we present a prediction model using LSTMs on subgroups of similar time series, which are identified by time series clustering techniques. The proposed methodology is able to consistently outperform the baseline LSTM model, and it achieves competitive results on benchmarking datasets, in particular outperforming all other methods on the CIF2016 dataset. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.03222&r=cta |
| By: | Roger Fouquet |
| Abstract: | Energy transitions have led to major advances in human wellbeing. How- ever, little evidence exists about the scale of the net benefits. By developing a new method for identifying the demand curve, and by using a unique, his- torical data set, this paper estimates the consumer surplus associated with heating, transport and lighting over more than two hundred years and iden- tifies the gains from a number of key energy transitions. For certain energy transitions, the increase was dramatic, re ecting the transformations in soci- ety and lifestyles that mobility and illumination provided in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Yet, the net benefits related to heating technologies only rose modestly. Finally, due to saturation effects of the demand for en- ergy services, future technological developments and energy transitions may benefit consumers (though not necessarily society as a whole) less than those in the past. |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp277&r=cta |
| By: | Justin Caron; Thibault Fally; James R. Markusen |
| Abstract: | Almost all of the literature about the growth of income inequality and the relationship between skilled and unskilled wages approaches the issue from the production side of general equilibrium (skill-biased technical change, international trade). Here, we add a role for income-dependent demand interacted with factor intensities in production. We explore how income growth and trade liberalization inuence the demand for skilled labor when preferences are non-homothetic and income-elastic goods are more intensive in skilled labor, an empirical regularity documented in Caron, Fally and Markusen (2014). In one experiment, counterfactual simulations show that sectorneutral productivity growth, which generates shifts in consumption towards skill-intensive goods, leads to significant increases in the skill premium: in developing countries, a one percent increase in productivity leads to a 0.1 to 0.25 percent increase in the skill premium. In several countries, including China and India, simulations suggest that the historical growth experienced in the last 25 years may have led to an increase in the skill premium of more than 10%. In a second experiment, we show that trade cost reductions generate quantitatively very different outcomes once we account for non-homothetic preferences. These imply substantially less predicted net factor content of trade and allow for a shift in consumption patterns caused by trade-induced income growth. Overall, the negative effect of trade cost reductions on the skill premium predicted for developing countries under homothetic preferences (Stolper-Samuelson) is strongly mitigated, and sometimes reversed. |
| Keywords: | non-homothetic preferences, skill premium, per capita income, internatonal trade |
| JEL: | F10 O10 F16 J31 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6514&r=cta |
| By: | M. Hashem Pesaran; Takashi Yamagata |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a novel test of zero pricing errors for the linear factor pricing model when the number of securities, N, can be large relative to the time dimension, T, of the return series. The test is based on Student t tests of individual securities and has a number of advantages over the existing standardised Wald type tests. It allows for non-Gaussianity and general forms of weakly cross correlated errors. It does not require estimation of an invertible error covariance matrix, it is much faster to implement, and is valid even if N is much larger than T. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the proposed test performs remarkably well even when T = 60 and N = 5;000. The test is applied to monthly returns on securities in the S&P 500 at the end of each month in real time, using rolling windows of size 60. Statistically significant evidence against Sharpe-Lintner CAPM and Fama-French three factor models are found mainly during the recent financial crisis. Also we find a significant negative correlation between a twelve-months moving average p-values of the test and excess returns of long/short equity strategies (relative to the return on S&P 500) over the period November 1994 to June 2015, suggesting that abnormal profits are earned during episodes of market inefficiencies. |
| Keywords: | CAPM, testing for alpha, weak and spatial error cross-sectional dependence, S&P 500 securities, long/short equity strategy |
| JEL: | C12 C15 C23 G11 G12 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6432&r=cta |
| By: | S. Mahendra Dev (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses (a) changes in measurement in industry and services (b) changes made in agriculture sector and (c) major issues on the measurement of GDP in new series. There are long term or legacy issues in agriculture, industry and services. The paper examines 10 major issues on measurement of GDP in the new series. These are: (1) MCA 21 data problems; (2) separation of Quasi corporations from household sector; (3) effective labour input method; (4) high growth rate of GDP vs. ground realities; (5) GDP at market prices vs. GVA at basic prices vs. GDP at factor prices; (6) GDP production and GDP expenditure method; (7) single vs. double deflation; (8) price deflators WPI vs. CPI; (9) nominal growth vs. real growth; (10) reference point for growth: advance estimates, provisional estimates, first revised estimates and second revised estimates. In our view, although there are some gaps in the measurement of GDP the new series and the methodology adopted are based on 'best advice' from experts available in the country. The issues discussed in the paper will be useful for next base revision of National Accounts Statistics. |
| Keywords: | GDP, Agriculture, Manufacturing, Services, price deflators, Consumer price index |
| JEL: | E01 Q10 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2017-018&r=cta |
| By: | Altavilla, Carlo; Boucinha, Miguel; Peydró, José-Luis |
| Abstract: | We analyse the impact of standard and non-standard monetary policy measures on bank profitability. For empirical identification, the analysis focuses on the euro area, thereby exploiting substantial bank and country heterogeneity within a monetary union where the central bank has implemented a broad range of unconventional policies, including quantitative easing and negative interest rates. We use both proprietary and commercial data on individual bank balance sheets and financial market prices. Our results show that monetary policy easing – a decrease in short-term interest rates and/or a flattening of the yield curve – is not associated with lower bank profits once we control for the endogeneity of the policy measures to expected macroeconomic and financial conditions. Importantly, our analysis indicates that the main components of bank profitability are asymmetrically affected by accommodative monetary conditions, with a positive impact on loan loss provisions and non-interest income largely offsetting the negative one on net interest income. We also find that a protracted period of low interest rates might have a negative effect on profits that, however, only materialises after a long period of time and tends to be counterbalanced by improved macroeconomic conditions. In addition, while more operationally efficient banks benefit more from monetary policy easing, banks engaging more extensively in maturity transformation experience a higher increase in profitability after a steepening of the yield curve. Finally, we assess the impact of unconventional monetary policies on market-based measures of expected bank profitability and credit risk, by employing an event study analysis using high frequency data, and find that accommodative monetary policies tend to increase bank stock returns and reduce credit risk. JEL Classification: E52, E43, G01, G21, G28 |
| Keywords: | bank profitability, lower bound, monetary policy, negative rates, quantitative easing |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172105&r=cta |
| By: | Pinto, Santiago (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond) |
| Abstract: | It is well-known that competition for factors of production, including competition for residents, affects the public services provided in the communities. This paper considers the determination of local investment in urban transport systems. Many specialists question the effectiveness of the current U.S. top-to-bottom transportation institutional arrangement in which the federal government plays a dominant role and recommend a shift toward a decentralized organization. We examine how such a shift would affect the levels of transport investment. Specifically, we consider a model of two cities, and assume, as in Brueckner and Selod (2006), that transport systems are characterized by different time and money costs. We compare the outcomes reached when the transport system is decided by a central authority (a state or federal government) to the one decided by each jurisdiction in a decentralized way. In the latter case, city or local transportation authorities choose the system that maximizes residents’ welfare, taking as given the decisions made elsewhere, essentially competing for residents (or workers). Our analysis shows that even though a shift toward a decentralized arrangement of the transportation system would generally lead to overinvestment (relative to the centralized case), the extent of this bias depends on the specific factors that drive transport authorities in deciding the transportation system, on the landownership structure, and on the financing arrangements in place. The paper also shows that, in a more general setup, when the two cities differ in their productivity levels, the more productive city will tend to overinvest in transportation systems that connect the two cities, and the less productive city will tend to underinvest in those systems. |
| Keywords: | transportation; transport investment; |
| Date: | 2017–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:17-10&r=cta |
| By: | Chambers, MJ; McCrorie, JR; Thornton, MA |
| Abstract: | This chapter provides a survey of methods of continuous time modelling based on an exact discrete time representation. It begins by highlighting the techniques involved with the derivation of an exact discrete time representation of an underlying continuous time model,providing specificc details for a second-order linear system of stochastic differential equations. Issues of parameter identification, Granger causality, nonstationarity, and mixed frequency data are addressed, all being important considerations in applications in economics and other disciplines. Although the focus is on Gaussian estimation of the exact discrete time model, alternative time domain (state space) and frequency domain approaches are also discussed. Computational issues are explored and two new empirical applications are included along with a discussion of applications in the field of macroeconometric modelling. |
| Keywords: | Continuous time; exact discrete time representation; stochastic di erential equation; Gaussian estimation; identi cation; Granger causality; nonstationarity; mixed frequency data; computation; macroeconometric modelling. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esx:essedp:20497&r=cta |
| By: | Alexandre Mas; Amanda Pallais |
| Abstract: | We use a field experiment to estimate the marginal value of non-work time (MVT). During a national application process for phone survey and data entry positions, we randomly offered applicants alternative wage-hour bundles. Jobseeker choices over these bundles yield estimates for the MVT as a function of hours worked. These quantities trace out a labor supply relationship. As predicted by the conventional model of the allocation of time, the substitution effect is positive. Individual labor supply is highly elastic at low hours and becomes more inelastic at higher hours. For unemployed job applicants, the opportunity cost of a full-time job due to lost leisure, household production, and other non-work activities is approximately 60% of their estimated market wage. A similar estimate is found when we reproduce elements of this experiment in a nationally-representative survey. |
| JEL: | C93 J22 J64 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23906&r=cta |
| By: | Dolores Añón Higón (Department of Economic Structure, University of Valencia, Avda. dels Tarongers s/n, 46022 Valencia (Spain).); Juan A. Mañez (Department of Economic Structure, University of Valencia, Avda. dels Tarongers s/n, 46022 Valencia (Spain).); Juan A. Sanchis (Department of Economic Structure, University of Valencia, Avda. dels Tarongers s/n, 46022 Valencia (Spain).) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to ascertain the impact of two firm innovation strategies – namely, intramural R&D and external R&D, including either contracted R&D and import of technology, upon total factor productivity (TFP). In order to evaluate these effects we consider robust estimates of TFP through a GMM approach where we account for the diverse innovation strategies carried out by firms (intramural only, external only or both). Using data for Spanish manufacturing firms drawn from the Encuesta de Estrategias Empresariales (ESEE), over the period 1991-2014, our results suggest that inhouse R&D and external R&D are complementary strategies only for large fims in high tech sectors. For the rest of firms, both strategies turn out to be substitutive. |
| Keywords: | intramural R&D, external R&D, complementarity, substitutability, TFP |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:1706&r=cta |
| By: | Zhou, Haiwen |
| Abstract: | Is the degree of external economies (at the industry level) higher than the degree of internal increasing returns (at the firm level)? If so, what is the exact source of this difference? In this general equilibrium model in which firms producing final goods choose the degree of specialization of their technologies, external economies arise from the usage of intermediate inputs and the existence of internal increasing returns. It is frequently assumed that increasing returns are absent at the firm level while are present at the industry level. In this model, the existence of increasing returns at the firm level is necessary for the existence of external economies at the industry level. We show that the degree of external economies increases with the level of linkage effects. However, a higher linkage effect does not always lead firms to choose more specialized technologies. |
| Keywords: | External economies, internal increasing returns, linkage effects, choice of technology, oligopolistic competition |
| JEL: | F10 L10 R10 |
| Date: | 2017–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81942&r=cta |
| By: | Carlo Altavilla (Name: European Central Bank and CSEF); Miguel Boucinha (European Central Bank); José-Luis Peydró (ICREA-UPF, CREI, BGSE) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the impact of standard and non-standard monetary policy measures on bank profitability. For empirical identification, the analysis focuses on the euro area, thereby exploiting substantial bank and country heterogeneity within a monetary union where the central bank has implemented a broad range of unconventional policies, including quantitative easing and negative interest rates. We use both proprietary and commercial data on individual bank balance sheets and financial market prices. Our results show that monetary policy easing – a decrease in short-term interest rates and/or a flattening of the yield curve – is not associated with lower bank profits once we control for the endogeneity of the policy measures to expected macroeconomic and financial conditions. Importantly, our analysis indicates that the main components of bank profitability are asymmetrically affected by accommodative monetary conditions, with a positive impact on loan loss provisions and non-interest income largely offsetting the negative one on net interest income. We also find that a protracted period of low interest rates might have a negative effect on profits that, however, only materialises after a long period of time and tends to be counterbalanced by improved macroeconomic conditions. In addition, while more operationally efficient banks benefit more from monetary policy easing, banks engaging more extensively in maturity transformation experience a higher increase in profitability after a steepening of the yield curve. Finally, we assess the impact of unconventional monetary policies on market-based measures of expected bank profitability and credit risk, by employing an event study analysis using high frequency data, and find that accommodative monetary policies tend to increase bank stock returns and reduce credit risk. |
| Keywords: | bank profitability, monetary policy, lower bound, quantitative easing, negative rates |
| JEL: | E52 E43 G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2017–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:486&r=cta |
| By: | Petach, Luke; Tavani, Daniele |
| Abstract: | We study a series of sustained growth models in which households' preferences are affected by the consumption of other households as summarized by average consumption. In endogenous growth models, the equilibrium paths involve lower savings and lower growth than the corresponding efficient paths. Both savings and growth are inversely related to the extent of social preferences. In semi-endogenous models, other-regarding preferences have no growth effects, but have positive level effects on the long-run research intensity, because they increase the market size for potential monopolists in the intermediate goods sector. To test the extent to which consumption is other-regarding, we use Consumer Expenditure Survey data: our identification strategy relies on a two-stage estimator that uses the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 as a positive and a negative consumption shocks to top incomes respectively. In the first stage, we use a difference-in-difference approach to exploit the exogenous variation in consumption caused by federal tax reform. We then use the predicted values for average within-cohort consumption by income deciles as an instrument to estimate the extent of social preferences. Our results point toward highly significant long-run `keeping up' effects on the order of 30%. |
| Keywords: | Keeping up with the Joneses,Endogenous Growth |
| JEL: | D12 E21 O41 O51 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:169416&r=cta |
| By: | Ryan E. Carlin (Georgia State University); Gregory J. Love (University of Mississippi); Conal Smith (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Interpersonal trust (i.e. trust in other people) is an issue of high interest to both policy-makers and researchers seeking to understand what drives social and economic outcomes. However, for trust to usefully inform policy and analysis it is necessary to have valid and reliable measures of it. Despite a large body of evidence on the relationship between trust and other social and economic outcomes, evidence on the validity of trust from experimental data is conflicting. In particular, while many studies find no correlation between survey measures of trust and experimental measures at an individual level, other studies suggest a significant, if modest, correlation at the country level. This article examines the relationship between survey and experimental measures of trust in others using a large dataset containing aggregate experimental and survey measures of trust from 167 studies conducted in 36 countries. Importantly, the dataset also includes individual measures of both survey and behavioural trust in seven countries, and data from two panel studies with repeated survey measures of trust. Using these multiple data sources, the paper investigates the degree to which survey measures of interpersonal trust are valid at both an individual and cross-country level. The paper shows the existence of a significant correlation between survey and experimental measures of interpersonal trust at the country-level. Evidence on measurement errors in existing small-scale studies underscores the importance of developing better quality data from both surveys and experiments. |
| Keywords: | Interpersonal trust, measurement, trust game |
| JEL: | C83 C91 Z10 |
| Date: | 2017–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stdaaa:2017/10-en&r=cta |
| By: | Jean Huge; Anne Julie A.J. Rochette; Luc L. Janssens de Bisthoven; Farid Dahdouh-Guebas; Nico Koedam; Maarten P M M.P.M. Vanhove |
| Abstract: | Biodiversity is under threat from anthropogenic pressures, in particular in biodiversity-rich developing countries. Development cooperation actors, who traditionally focus on the improvement of socio-economic conditions in the South, are increasingly acknowledging the linkages between poverty and biodiversity, e.g. by referring to the ecosystem services framework. However, there are many different framings which stress the need for biodiversity integration and which influence how biodiversity and development are and/or should be linked. Moreover, there is a gap between the lip service paid to biodiversity integration and the reality of development cooperation interventions. This study analyses how biodiversity framings are reflected in environmental impact assessment (EIA) practice, and how these framings influence EIA and decision-making. The findings, based on an in-depth qualitative analysis of World Bank EIAs undertaken in West Africa, indicate the incoherent quality but also the dominance of the ‘utilitarian’ and ‘corrective’ framings, which respectively stress human use of nature and mitigation of negative unintended development impacts. Identifying and highlighting these discursive trends leads to increased awareness of the importance of biodiversity among all development actors in North and South. However, some framings may lead to an overly narrow human-centred approach which downplays the intrinsic value of biodiversity. This study proposes recommendations for an improved integration of biodiversity in development cooperation, including the need for more systematic baseline studies in EIAs. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Baseline; Biodiversity; Development cooperation; Environmental impact assessment (EIA) |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/258845&r=cta |
| By: | Ralph Siebert |
| Abstract: | Mergers realize heterogeneous competitive effects on profits, production, and prices. To date, it is unclear whether differential merger outcomes are caused mostly by firms’ technology or product market attributes. Furthermore, empirical merger studies conventionally assume that, conditional on regressors, the impact of mergers on outcomes is the same for every firm. We allow the merger responses to vary across firms, even after controlling for regressors, and apply a random-coefficient or heterogeneous treatment effect model (in the context of Angrist and Krueger (1999), Heckman, Urzua, and Vytlacil (2006), and Cerulli (2012)). Based on a comprehensive dataset on the static random access memory industry, we find that firms’ postmerger output further increases (and postmerger price further declines) if merging firms are more efficient, operate in more elastic product markets, are more innovative, and acquire knowledge in technological areas that are relatively unexplored to themselves. A further interesting insight is that product market characteristics cause stronger postmerger outcome heterogeneities than do technology market characteristics. We also find that the postmerger effects accounting for heterogeneities differ greatly from those that consider homogeneous postmerger outcome effects. Our estimation results provide evidence that ignoring heterogeneous outcome effects can result in heterogeneity bias, just as ignoring premerger heterogeneities can lead to selectivity bias. |
| Keywords: | heterogeneous treatment effects, horizontal mergers, market power effects, merger evaluation, premerger heterogeneity, postmerger heterogeneity |
| JEL: | L11 L13 L52 O31 O32 O38 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6607&r=cta |
| By: | Mishra, SK |
| Abstract: | This study is concerned with a great socio-economic experiment in history that replaced the naturally evolved market economy with the humanly designed command economy to achieve a socialist triumph over capitalism, experienced a setback and ultimately returned to the market economy for managing the material aspects of the society. Efforts to open the subject economies in the aftermath of the said experiment are on the contemporary agenda worldwide. Yet, the past pulls the present causing hysteresis that thwarts the momentum of globalization. Using KOF and AEMC indices of globalization (based on KOF data 1991-2014), the paper concludes that most of the countries to the south of Russian Federation (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan) have performed rather poorly in globalization efforts. On the other hand, the countries in the north-western side of the Russian Federation (except Moldova) have on the whole performed better. In comparison, China has performed fairly while India lags behind. In spite of all proclamations, unless the political will to globalization is there, globalization cannot progress much further. However, such a political will has not been strong in India. India has remained protectionist of vested interests of politicians, industrialists, business houses and perhaps the intelligentsia, a coalition of the dominant proprietary classes that benefit from the status quo or stagnancy of the Indian economy and society. Globalization in India is under a strong spell of hysteresis on account of the pre-1991 pseudo-socialistic nostalgia as well as age-old internal contradictions. |
| Keywords: | Globalization, KOF index, equi-marginal, Shapley value, China, India, Eastern Bloc countries |
| JEL: | C43 C61 C71 P52 |
| Date: | 2017–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81962&r=cta |
| By: | Shang-Jin Wei; Ziru Wei; Jianhuan Xu |
| Abstract: | We argue that existence of public good does not necessarily imply market failure, and illustrate this point in the context of international trade. An influential hypothesis states that export pioneers are too few relative to social optimum because the first exporter's action creates an informational public good for all subsequent exporters. The hypothesis has been invoked to justify certain types of government interventions. We note, however, that such market failure requires two inequalities to hold simultaneously: the discovery cost is neither too low nor too high. Neither has to hold in the data. We propose a structural estimation framework to evaluate the hypothesis, and estimate the parameters based on the customs data of Chinese electronics exports. Our key finding is that "missing pioneers" are a low-probability event for large countries, but can be a serious problem for small economies. |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23893&r=cta |
| By: | BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen; Fariditavana, Hadiseh |
| Abstract: | Previous studies that assessed the impact of exchange rate changes on a country’s inpayments and outpayments assumed that such effects are symmetric. The evidence from the literature reveals that import and export prices react to exchange rate changes in an asymmetric manner. This implies that export earnings and payments for imports should also react to exchange rate changes in an asymmetric manner. We demonstrate this by using Shin et al.’s (2014) nonlinear ARDL approach and inpayments and outpayments of the U.S. with her 15 trading partners. We find evidence of short-run as well as long-run asymmetric effects in more than half of the models, though the findings are found to be partner specific. |
| Keywords: | The U.S., Inpayments, Outpayments, Value of the dollar, Asymmetry Analysis |
| JEL: | F3 F31 |
| Date: | 2016–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81829&r=cta |
| By: | K. Haaf; C.J.M. Kool |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyse the sources of real per capita income growth and convergence in the 16 German states over the period 1995-2014 using a panel approach. The empirical analysis applies the popular growth – initial income equation. We augment the basic model specification with a trend term and a crisis dummy. We then augment the model with additional explanatory variables and account for non-linear interaction effects. Overall, we find evidence of slow but significant convergence once the crisis and a trend are appropriately accounted for. Internal migration has a positive impact on growth in the East and thus contributes to the convergence between Eastern and Western states. Horizontal tax equalisation is ineffective in promoting growth and convergence, but we do find some evidence that federal supplementary grants have contributed to convergence between grant receiving and non-receiving states. Structural funding is found to have opposing growth effects on Eastern and Western states and has significantly promoted convergence. |
| Keywords: | Internal migration, Fiscal equalisation, Structural funding, Panel approach, Interaction effects |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:1712&r=cta |
| By: | Rowena Gray; Giulia Montresor; Greg C. Wright |
| Abstract: | The extent to which firms respond to labor supply shocks has important implications for local and national economies. We exploit firm-level panel data on product and process innovation activities in the United Kingdom and find that the large, low-skill labor supply (immigration) shock generated by the 2004 expansion of the European Union to Eastern European countries increased process innovation and reduced product innovation. This implies that the innovation response to labor supply shocks may be more nuanced than previous literature has suggested. Both of these effects are increasing in the low-skill intensity of firm production as well as firm size. In addition, the reduction in product innovation is lessened for firms whose output is sold locally. We interpret this last finding as evidence in favor of a demand side effect that mitigates the overall decline in product innovation generated by the labor supply shock. We present a model that illustrates the channels through which firms may respond to labor supply shocks, and find that our results are mostly consistent with the model’s predictions. |
| Keywords: | product innovation, process innovation, immigration, labor supply shocks |
| JEL: | J23 J61 F22 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6624&r=cta |
| By: | Mesbah Sharaf (University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada); Ahmed Rashad |
| Abstract: | There is substantial evidence that on average, urban children have better health outcomes than rural children. This paper investigates the underlying factors that account for the regional disparities in child malnutrition in three Arab countries, namely; Egypt, Jordan, and Yemen. We use data on a nationally representative sample from the most recent rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey. A Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition analysis is conducted to decompose the rural-urban differences in child nutrition outcomes into two components; one that is explained by regional differences in the level of the determinants (covariate effects), and another component that is explained by differences in the effect of the determinants on the child nutritional status (coefficient effects). Results show that the under-five stunting rates are 20% in Egypt, 46.5 % in Yemen, and 7.7% in Jordan. The rural- urban gap in child malnutrition was minor in the case of Egypt (2.3%) and Jordan (1.5%), while the regional gap was significant in the case of Yemen (17.7%). Results of the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition show that the covariate effect is dominant in the case of Yemen while the coefficients effect dominates in the case of Jordan. Income inequality between urban and rural households explains most of the malnutrition gap. Results were robust to the different decomposition weighting schemes. By identifying the underlying factors behind the rural- urban health disparities, the findings of this paper help in designing effective intervention measures aimed at reducing regional inequalities and improving population health outcomes. |
| Date: | 2017–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1144&r=cta |
| By: | Kaiser, Micha; Bauer, Jan M. |
| Abstract: | Because the value of preschool child care is under intensive debate among both policymakers and society in general, this paper analyzes the relation between preschool care and the well-being of children and adolescents in Germany. It also examines differences in outcomes based on child socioeconomic background by focusing on the heterogeneous effects for migrant children. Our findings, based on data from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey of Children and Adolescents, suggest that children who have experienced child care have a slightly lower well-being overall. For migrant children, however, the outcomes indicate a positive relation. |
| Keywords: | child care,migrants,preschool,well-being,education inequality |
| JEL: | J13 J15 I28 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohdps:212017&r=cta |
| By: | Chris Kenyon; Mourad Berrahoui; Benjamin Poncet |
| Abstract: | The utility of Potential Future Exposure (PFE) for counterparty trading limits is being challenged by new market developments, notably widespread regulatory Initial Margin (using 99% 10-day exposure), and netting of trade and collateral flows. However PFE has pre-existing challenges w.r.t. portfolios/distributions, collateralization, netting set seniority, and overlaps with CVA. We introduce Potential Future Loss (PFL) which combines expected shortfall (ES) and loss given default (LGD) as a replacement for PFE. With two additional variants Adjusted PFL (aPFL) and Protected Adjusted PFL (paPFL) these deal with both new and pre-existing challenges. We provide a theoretical background and numerical examples. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.03161&r=cta |
| By: | Brunnhuber, Stefan |
| Abstract: | This talk aims to provide an argument for a parallel, optional, complementary currency system in order to overcome the constraints of the global economy and finance social and ecological projects on a global level. This argument goes beyond regulatory efforts and co-financed redistribution. The advantages of implementing this or a similar mechanism are manifold: firstly, it can be implemented in a fast and targeted manner and is relatively cheap. Secondly, it would have an anticyclical, antiinflationary and resilient impact on our trading and payment system. Thirdly, it builds on findings in systems theory, thus avoiding the tedious discussion between the different schools of economics. Fourthly, it addresses the magnitude, volume and significance of the global challenges ahead. In short: this argument is based on a new kind of thinking on how to design a monetary ecosystem to make the world a better place. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs),financing global commons,parallel optional currency |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:128&r=cta |
| By: | Chris McDonald (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) |
| Abstract: | Forecasts of non-tradables inflation have been produced using Phillips curves, where capacity pressure and inflation expectations have been the key drivers. The Bank had previously used the survey of 2-year ahead inflation expectations in its Phillips curve. However, from 2014 non-tradables inflation was weaker than the survey and estimates of capacity pressure suggested. Bank research indicated the weakness in non-tradables inflation may have been linked to low past inflation and its impact on pricing behaviour. This note evaluates whether measures of past inflation could have been used to produce forecasts of inflation that would have been more accurate than using surveys of inflation expectations. It does this by comparing forecasts for annual non-tradablesinflation one year ahead. Forecasts are produced using Phillips curves that incorporate measures of past inflation or surveys of inflation expectations, and other information available at the time of each Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). This empirical test aims to determine the approach that captures pricing behaviour best, highlighting which may be best for forecasting going forward. The results show that forecasts constructed using measures of past inflation have been more accurate than using survey measures of inflation expectations, including the 2-year ahead survey measure previously used by the Bank. In addition, forecasts constructed using measures of past inflation would have been significantly more accurate than the Bank’s MPS forecasts since 2009, and only slightly worse than these forecasts before the global financial crisis (GFC). The consistency of forecasts using past-inflation measures reduces the concern that this approach is only accurate when inflation is low, and suggests it may be a reasonable approach to forecasting non-tradables inflation generally. From late 2015, the Bank has assumed that past inflation has affected domestic price-setting behaviour more than previously. As a result, monetary policy has needed to be more stimulatory than would otherwise be the case. This price-setting behaviour is assumed to persist, and is consistent with subdued non-tradables inflation and low nominal wage inflation in 2017. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2017/04&r=cta |
| By: | M\'onica Clavel; Jes\'us Arteaga-Ortiz; Rub\'en Fern\'andez-Ortiz; Pablo Dorta-Gonz\'alez |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to fill a gap in the literature on internationalization, in relation to the absence of objective and measurable performance indicators on the process of how firms sequentially enter external markets. To that end, this research develops a quantitative tool that can be used as a performance indicator of gradualness for firms entering external markets at a sectoral level. The performance indicator is based on firms' export volume, number of years of exporting, geographic areas targeted for export, and when exports were initiated for each area. Additionally, the indicator is tested empirically in the Spanish wine sector. The main contribution of this study is the creation of an international priority index which serves as a valuable and reliable tool because of its potential use in other industry sectors and geographic areas, allowing us to analyze how geographically differentiated internationalization strategies develop. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.03526&r=cta |
| By: | De Koning, Kees |
| Abstract: | August 9, 2007 is often regarded as the starting date of the global financial crisis. BNP Paribas stopped trading in three of its investment funds exposed to the U.S. sub-prime mortgage markets as the liquidity in these markets had all but dried up. Liquidity considerations are a symptom of the supply side of funds: the lenders’ side. The latter could be banks, hedge funds, asset managers or pension funds, but equally rich individuals who would invest directly in these markets. The financial crisis of 2007-2008 was a lenders’ crisis. Generally, banks had insufficient capital to absorb the losses created by the reduced liquidity levels in the financial markets. Central banks had to step in to rescue quite a few of them. The fact was, however, that the underlying cause of the financial crisis was a borrowers’ crisis. In the U.S., over the years 1997-2007, households had to borrow an ever-growing percentage of their earnings in order to get themselves on the property ladder or rent a home. Long before 2007, in fact by 2003, the additional amount that a household had to borrow to get a home was equal to a full year of earnings. Average income growth and mortgage volume growth were on a collision course. Borrowers had to allocate increasing percentages of their earnings to servicing mortgage debts or renting a home. The notion that lenders will rein in their lending as a consequence of free market competition is a fallacy. The key is not the price of funds borrowed, but the volume of funds lend per time period in comparison to average household’ nominal income growth. The consequences of a borrowers’ crisis are different from a financial markets’ liquidity one. When households have to allocate an increasing share of their income to either buy or rent a home, fewer funds are available to spend on other goods and services. When households are subsequently confronted with foreclosure and ultimately repossession of homes, they lose most or all past savings accumulated in the home. The poor get poorer, both in income and asset values terms. The gap between the haves and the have-nots widens dramatically. Volume of lending control and to some extent rent controls can prevent a new financial crisis occurring. More measures are needed to overcome a borrowers’ crisis. |
| Keywords: | financial crisis, lenders' crisis, borrowers' crisis, income-house price gap, U.S. mortgage lending levels 1996-2016, annual U.S.housing starts, average U.S. home sales price, median U.S. annual household' income, economic versus legal solutions |
| JEL: | E3 E4 E44 E5 E58 |
| Date: | 2017–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82035&r=cta |
| By: | Landmann, Andreas; Seitz, Helke; Steiner, Susan |
| Abstract: | We examine the role of family structure, specifically of co-residence with parents in-law, for female labour supply. To account for the endogeneity of co-residence, we exploit a tradition in Central Asia, namely that the youngest son of a family usually lives with his parents. Using data from Kyrgyzstan, we therefore instrument co-residence with being married to a youngest son. We find that the effect of co-residence on female labour supply - though insignificant - tends to be negative. |
| JEL: | J12 J21 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168282&r=cta |
| By: | Boscow Okumu; Edwin Muchapondwa |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on whether the provision of landless forest-adjacent communities with options to grow appropriate food crops inside forest reserves during early stages of reforestation programmes enable vertical transition of low income households and conserves forests. We consider the welfare and environmental impact of a unique incentive scheme known as the Plantation Establishment and Livelihood Improvement Scheme (PELIS) in Kenya. PELIS was aimed at deepening community participation in forestry, and improving the economic livelihoods of adjacent communities. Using data collected from 22 Community Forest Associations and 406 households, we evaluated the mean impact of the scheme on forest cover and household welfare using matching methods and further assessed the heterogeneous impact of the scheme on household welfare using the endogenous quantile treatment effects model. The study revealed that on average, PELIS had a significant and positive impact on overall household welfare (estimated between 15.09% and 28.14%) and on the environment (between 5.53% and 7.94%). However, in terms of welfare, the scheme cannot be defended on equity grounds as it has inequitable distributional impacts on household welfare. The scheme raises welfare of the least poor than the poorest and marginalizes sections of the community through elite capture and lack of market linkages. |
| Keywords: | household welfare, heterogeneity, Selection Matching, QTE |
| JEL: | D02 Q23 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:706&r=cta |
| By: | Quamrul H. Ashraf; Francesco Cinnirella; Oded Galor; Boris Gershman; Erik Hornung |
| Abstract: | This paper advances a novel hypothesis regarding the historical roots of labor emancipation. It argues that the decline of coercive labor institutions in the industrial phase of development has been an inevitable by-product of the intensification of capital-skill complementarity in the production process. In light of the growing significance of skilled labor for fostering the return to physical capital, elites in society were induced to relinquish their historically profitable coercion of labor in favor of employing free skilled workers, thereby incentivizing the masses to engage in broad-based human capital acquisition, without fear of losing their skill premium to expropriation. In line with the proposed hypothesis, exploiting a plausibly exogenous source of variation in early industrialization across regions of nineteenth-century Prussia, capital abundance is shown to have contributed to the subsequent intensity of de facto serf emancipation. |
| Keywords: | labor coercion, serfdom, emancipation, industrialization, physical capital accumulation, capital-skill complementarity, demand for human capital, nineteenth-century Prussia |
| JEL: | J24 J47 N13 N33 O14 O15 O43 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6423&r=cta |
| By: | Giuseppe Cavaliere (University of Bologna); Morten Ørregaard Nielsen (Queen's University and CREATES); A.M. Robert Taylor (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | We consider estimation and inference in fractionally integrated time series models driven by shocks which can display conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form. Although the standard conditional sum-of-squares (CSS) estimator remains consistent and asymptotically normal in such cases, unconditional heteroskedasticity inflates its variance matrix by a scalar quantity, lambda>1, thereby inducing a loss in efficiency relative to the unconditionally homoskedastic case, lambda=1. We propose an adaptive version of the CSS estimator, based on non-parametric kernel-based estimation of the unconditional variance process. This eliminates the factor lambda from the variance matrix, thereby delivering the same asymptotic efficiency as that attained by the standard CSS estimator in the unconditionally homoskedastic case and, hence, asymptotic efficiency under Gaussianity. The asymptotic variance matrices of both the standard and adaptive CSS estimators depend on any conditional heteroskedasticity and/or weak parametric autocorrelation present in the shocks. Consequently, asymptotically pivotal inference can be achieved through the development of confidence regions or hypothesis tests using either heteroskedasticity robust standard errors and/or a wild bootstrap. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical applications are included to illustrate the practical usefulness of the methods proposed. |
| Keywords: | adaptive estimation, conditional sum-of-squares, fractional integration, heteroskedasticity, quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, wild bootstrap |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1390&r=cta |
| By: | Álvaro Pina (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Luxembourg’s large foreign-born population is a pillar of the country’s prosperity: they have brought skills and knowledge to many sectors of the economy. They also tend to successfully find jobs, with a higher employment rate than natives. However, not all immigrants have done well. The minority from non-EU origin (about 10% of the country’s population) suffers from high unemployment, large gender gaps in activity and below-average incomes. Refugees are particularly vulnerable. Other integration shortcomings go beyond disadvantaged minorities. Pervasive labour market segmentation is well illustrated by the marked under-representation of the foreign-born in public sector jobs. Political participation of immigrants at local level is modest. At school, their children are often put at a disadvantage by an education system which tends to perpetuate socio-economic inequality. The diversity of Luxembourg’s society contributed by immigrants should be seen as an asset for economic growth and well-being. Initiatives such as the diversity charter can help private and public organisations to reap the benefit of diversity through the inclusion of outsiders and the strengthening of social cohesion. Learning the languages of Luxembourg, developing social capital and having foreign qualifications validated are key preconditions for successful integration. Education requires both general equity-enhancing reforms, starting at early childhood, and targeted support to disadvantaged students, including upgraded vocational studies. Furthermore, job matching and social cohesion would benefit from greater immigrant participation in public sector employment and civic life. Avoiding that asylum seekers undergo protracted inactivity is also a concern. This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Luxembourg (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-surve y-luxembourg.htm). |
| Keywords: | asylum seekers, early childhood education and care, equity in education, labour market segmentation, public employment, school tracking |
| JEL: | H52 I24 I28 J15 J45 J48 J61 |
| Date: | 2017–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1418-en&r=cta |
| By: | Yadira Mori Clement (University of Graz); Birgit Bednar-Friedl (University of Innsbruck) |
| Abstract: | Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) investments have the two-fold objective of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and contributing to sustainable development. But while the contribution to mitigation has been analysed extensively in the literature, the impact on development has barely been quantified empirically. This paper intends to address this latter gap by investigating the impact of different types of CDM investments on local employment generation. A dynamic panel regression model for the period 2004-2014 across Brazilian municipalities supports that some CDM projects have not only stimulated job creation beyond the renewable energy sector, but also had a contractive effect in some economic sectors. We find moreover a clear difference by project type: For waste handling and methane avoidance projects, overall employment increases while no such effect emerges for hydro projects. However, these job effects are mainly transitory, i.e. in the first or second year after the project's registration; the expansion effect can be explained as a result of local employment demands generated during the project's construction and operation phases. The lack of durability or the temporary effects in employment of these projects might question the contribution of their benefits to local sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | Employment generation; Clean development mechanism; Industry; Regional development; Municipality level; Brazil; Dynamic panel model |
| JEL: | P48 Q52 Q56 R23 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2017-05&r=cta |
| By: | Maria Isabella Passarelli |
| Abstract: | The study aims to examine the advantages and disadvantages of the petroleum extraction in Basilicata, as well as to analyze its impact on economy, environment and public health. The introductory part provides a brief overview of the theories of global and local sustainable development, with special attention given to the area of Val d’Agri in Basilicata. The study then proceeds to examine various memoranda of understanding signed between the Region of Basilicata and the petroleum companies in question, in order to highlight which of the points included in these agreements have effectively been respected after twenty years of petroleum extraction. The research further focuses on the socio-economic impact of the extractive industry on the local resources from the 1990’s until today. It evaluates the damages caused by petroleum extraction to the environment, economy and public health, which have recently brought about a temporary closure of the extraction facilities. The research leads to the conclusion that the extractive industry has in fact weakened the local production systems and, as a consequence, led to a decrease in new investments in the area of Val d’Agri and in the entire region, despite a threefold increase of the share of royalty payments in the local budget. It can be stated with certainty that the exploitation of the petroleum resources in Val d’Agri, which had initially been perceived as a springboard for economic development of the entire region, has eventually proved to be the cause of an impoverishment of the area, having a negative impact on the food supply chain and impeding the development of tourism. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economic Activity: Growth; Development; Environmental Issues; and Changes; Environment and Development; Valuation of Environmental Effects; Employment Effects |
| JEL: | R11 Q51 Q56 Q52 |
| Date: | 2017–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udf:wpaper:2017066&r=cta |
| By: | Ferretti, Fabrizio; Mariani, Michele |
| Abstract: | Nowadays, obesity and being overweight are among the major global health concerns. Many, diet-related diseases impose high tangible and intangible costs, and threaten the sustainability of health-care systems worldwide. In this study, we model, at the macroeconomic level, the impact of energy intake from different types of carbohydrates on the population’s BMI (body mass index). We proceed in three steps. First, we develop a framework to analyse both the consumption choices between simple and complex carbohydrates and the effects of these choices on people health conditions. Second, we collect figures for 185 countries (over the period 2012–2014) regarding the shares of simple (sugar and sweetener) and complex (cereal) carbohydrates in each country’s total dietary energy supply. Third, we use regression techniques to: (1) estimate the impact of these shares on the country’s prevalence of obesity and being overweight; (2) compute for each country an indicator of dietary pattern based on the ratio between simple and complex carbohydrates, weighted by their estimated effects on the prevalence of obesity and being overweight; and (3) measure the elasticity of the prevalence of obesity and being overweight with respect to changes in both carbohydrate dietary pattern and income per capita. We find that unhealthy eating habits and the associated prevalence of excessive body fat accumulation tend to behave as a ‘normal good’ in low, medium- and high-HDI (Human Development Index) countries, but as an ‘inferior good’ in very high-HDI countries. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: carbohydrates; dietary patterns; human development; overweight and obesity; nutrition transition |
| JEL: | I15 |
| Date: | 2017–09–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81877&r=cta |
| By: | Ackah, Ishmael |
| Abstract: | With less than 50% of the population of Sub-Saharan Africa having access to modern forms of energy and the desire to minimize the impact of energy consumption on the environment, there is a need to invest in an energy source that is affordable, available and environmentally clean. Natural gas is therefore the preferred choice of energy since it has minimum impact on the environment among the fossil fuels and is relatively affordable. In this study, the generalized methods of moments (GMM), a dynamic panel two stage least squares and the general unrestricted model (GUM) through AutometricsTM are employed to estimate the demand for natural gas in oil producing African countries. The GUM suggests that oil producing African countries have been consuming excessive natural gas that seems to offset improved technical efficiency of appliances. The study finds that both economic and technical factors are important drivers of natural gas consumption. In particular, output exerts a positive and significant influence on natural gas demand, whereas energy price and energy resource depletion have a negative and significant effect. It is recommended that energy efficiency measures should be implemented in these countries. |
| Keywords: | Natural gas demand, Energy, Autometrics, Oil producing African countries, Fossil fuels |
| JEL: | Q31 Q39 Q4 Q43 Q47 |
| Date: | 2015–10–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81553&r=cta |
| By: | Toni Aubynn |
| Abstract: | At the heart of an effective extractive resource-based economic transformation and development is an effective regulatory framework that guides the promotion of investments into the sector, the procedure for responsible extraction, and the management of the utilization of such resources. Ghana’s endowment with significant amount of ferrous and non-ferrous minerals, including gold, bauxite, manganese, diamonds, and iron ore, as well as hydrocarbons, is well known. The country has been mining gold for over a century, ranking second in production in Africa. The country has also undergone various regulatory transformations that have resulted in improvements in the mining sector in the country. Drawing largely on the case of Ghana, this paper seeks to share the experience of a regulator and offers some perspectives on the purpose, content, and challenges of the practical regulation of an extractives sector in a lower middle-income economy. The paper looks at both the design and content of a regulatory system in the mining sector of Ghana and throws light on the practical challenges (technical and political) of implementation. In light of the increasing allure of resource nationalism in current times, the paper also briefly explores the manner in which relationships are established and maintained by the regulatory bodies with both large multinational companies and small artisanal mining operations. It also offers a brief reflection on three key international standards and arrangements (the International Finance Corporation, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, and the International Council on Minerals and Metals) to highlight their impact on domestic regulations. Conclusions are drawn to underscore the importance of effective and collaborative regulations in maximizing the transformative potential of resource extraction in less developed, resource-endowed countries. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2017-179&r=cta |
| By: | Ilija I. Zovko |
| Abstract: | In order to reduce signalling, traders may resort to limiting access to dark venues and imposing limits on minimum fill sizes they are willing to trade. However, doing this also restricts the liquidity available to the trader since an ever increasing quantity of orders are traded by algos in clips. An alternative is to attempt to monitor signalling in real time and dynamically make adjustments to the dark liquidity accessed. In practice, price slippage against the order is commonly taken as an indication of signalling. However, estimating slippage is difficult and requires a large number of fills to reliably detect it. Ultimately, even if detected, it fails to capture an important element of causality between dark fills and lit prints - a signature of information leakage. In the extreme, this can lead to scaling back trading at a time when slippage is caused by a competing trader consuming liquidity, and the appropriate action would be to scale trading up -- not down -- in order to capture good prices. In this paper we describe a methodology aimed to address this dichotomy of trading objectives, allowing to maximally capture available liquidity while at the same time protecting the trader from excessive signalling. The method is designed to profile dark liquidity in a dynamic fashion, on a per fill basis, in contrast to historical venue analyses based on estimated slippage. This allows for a dynamic and real-time control of the desired liquidity exposure. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.06350&r=cta |
| By: | Tomás Rau; Miguel Sarzosa; Sergio S. Urzúa |
| Abstract: | We use sharp, massive and unexpected price increases of oral contraceptives—product of a documented case of collusion among pharmaceutical retailers in Chile—as a natural experiment to estimate the impact of access to the Pill on fertility and newborn health. Our empirical strategy combines multiple sources of information and takes into account the seasonality of conceptions and the general trends of fertility, as well as the dynamics that arise after interrupting Pill's intake. Our estimates suggest that due to the price hike, the weekly birth rate increased by 4%. We show large effects on the number of children born to unmarried mothers, from mothers in their early 20's, and to primiparae women. Moreover, we find evidence of significant deterioration of newborn health as measured by the incidence of low birthweight and infant mortality. We suggest that the “extra” conceptions faced dire conditions during gestation as a result of mothers' unhealthy behaviors. In addition, we document a disproportional increase of 27% in the weekly miscarriage and stillbirth rates, which we interpret as manifestations of active efforts of termination in a country where abortion was illegal. As the “extra” children reached school age, we find lower school enrollment rates and higher participation in programs for students with special needs. Our results suggest that access to contraceptives may prevent conceptions that will turn out to be in relatively poor health, and thereby may improve the average health of children conceived. |
| JEL: | I14 I15 K42 L13 L4 L41 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23911&r=cta |
| By: | Barbara Annicchiarico; Claudio Battiati; Claudio Cesaroni; Fabio Di Dio; Francesco Felici |
| Abstract: | This paper extends IGEM, the dynamic general equilibrium model for the Italian economy currently in use at the Italian Department of the Treasury for economic policy analysis. In this new variant of the model the public sector is explicitly modelled as suppliers of goods and services. With this tool in hand we are able to present an in-depth analysis of expenditure-based fiscal multipliers and ameliorate our understanding of the potential macroeconomic effects of several policy interventions,such as those aimed at the rationalization of public spending, at the improvement of the business environment and at fostering productivity of the public administration (PA). |
| Keywords: | Structural Reforms, Dynamic General Equilibrium Model, Italy, Public Administration Fiscal Multipliers, Simulation Analysis |
| JEL: | E27 E30 E60 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:itt:wpaper:wp2017-2&r=cta |
| By: | Mustafizur Rahman; Towfiqul Islam Khan; Md. Zafar Sadique; Mostafa Amir Sabbih |
| Abstract: | The present paper provides a baseline assessment of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)-related data needs for Bangladesh. This is based on the final list of indicators proposed in a meeting of the Inter-Agency and Expert Group (IAEG) on Sustainable Development Goal Indicators. The paper finds that, in the case Bangladesh, data is available (readily, as well as not readily) for 128 indicators out of a total of 209 applicable indicators (61.2 per cent). The study also identifies potential sources for those indicators for which data is not currently available. In order to be able to measure SDG-related indicators and appropriately monitor their implementation, the study calls for a ‘Data Action Plan for Bangladesh.’ This paper proposes the possible establishment of a specialised taskforce, under the aegis of the Ministry of Planning, to coordinate the required ‘Data Revolution’ initiatives that need to be undertaken by numerous institutions and other actors. The taskforce, which should include both state and non-state experts, may be vested with responsibilities including ensuring methodological coherence, maintaining the high quality of data, and undertaking widespread dissemination of data and information. This taskforce may also be entrusted with the responsibility to liaise with global initiatives to implement SDG-related Data Revolution at the country level. |
| Keywords: | Bangladesh, data action plan, mapping SDG data, data revolution, Ministry of Planning |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svo:opaper:34&r=cta |
| By: | Helke Seitz |
| Abstract: | Microenterprises account for a large fraction of employment in developing countries and they are likely to increase in importance in the future. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, around 8 million additional jobs need to be created annually in order to cope with the increasing number of new entrants into the labour market (The World Bank, 2013). As microenterprises typically only provide subsistence income to few individuals the question remains whether they have the potential to grow and to contribute to the creation of jobs. Studies suggest that many businesses do indeed have the potential to grow. However, they often lack the necessary funds due to imperfect credit markets, insufficient household savings or behavioral reasons and missing information to exploit their potential. Policy interventions to overcome these issues show some promising results. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwrup:114en&r=cta |
| By: | Bendel, Daniel; Demary, Markus; Voigtländer, Michael |
| Abstract: | Companies' access to finance has a significant impact on their profitability and growth prospects. Without external financing, most firms are not able to invest, which is a prerequisite for economic growth. In contrast to the US, which has a capital market-based financial system, banks are the dominant lenders for firms in the euro area. Banking crises endanger access to finance. In the wake of the banking and sovereign debt crisis in the euro area, risk premiums for sovereign debt went up and spilled over to banking markets. Besides sovereigns, firms too faced credit constraints, especially in countries with presumably less sustainable public debt. After the European Central Bank (ECB) accelerated its accommodative monetary policy stance even further, interest rates for sovereigns and firms fell considerably, enabling firms to lend money at historically low rates. With the strengthened recovery of the euro area, the end of this ultra-low interest rate environment seems to be near, posing new challenges for firms in the euro area. The aim of this study is to analyse how firms have dealt with this changing financing environment in recent years and to what extent companies are ready for a change towards higher interest rates. To answer this research question, we have used data from the survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE) provided by the ECB. We identify companies that are vulnerable to rising interest rates, as they will presumably encounter economic problems when financing costs rise. The percentage of vulnerable companies is extremely high in Greece (9.4 percent), Italy (8.5 percent) and France (5.7 percent). The lowest rate is in Germany (0.7 percent). In relation to the size of the national business sectors, 39 percent of all vulnerable firms are located in Italy, 23 percent in France and 15 percent in Spain. When the ECB starts to normalize monetary policy, these countries could be hit hard through their business sectors' vulnerability. As a comparatively many large companies are prone to the risk of rising interest rates in Portugal (4.0 percent of big Portuguese companies) and Greece (10.0 percent of big Greek companies), the labour markets in those countries could be disproportionally affected when interest rates rise too quickly or become too high. |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G30 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:282017&r=cta |
| By: | Jiti Gao; Kai Xia |
| Abstract: | This paper considers a semiparametric panel data model with heterogeneous coefficients and individual-specific trending functions, where the random errors are assumed to be serially correlated and cross-sectionally dependent. We propose mean group estimators for the coefficients and trending functions involved in the model. It can be shown that the proposed estimators can achieve an asymptotic consistency with rates of root−NT and root-NTh, respectively as (N, T) -> (∞, ∞), where N is allowed to increase faster than T. Furthermore, a statistic for testing homogeneous coefficients is constructed based on the difference between the mean group estimator and a pooled estimator. Its asymptotic distributions are established under both the null and a sequence of local alternatives, even if the difference between these estimators vanishes considerably fast (can achieve root-NT2 rate at most under the null) and consistent estimator available for the covariance matrix is not required explicitly. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimators together with the size and local power properties of the test are demonstrated by simulated data examples, and an empirical application with the OECD health care expenditure dataset is also provided. |
| Keywords: | Health care expenditure, nonlinear trending function, nonstationary time series. |
| JEL: | C14 C22 G17 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2017-16&r=cta |
| By: | Sara Amoroso (European Commission - JRC); David B. Audretsch (Indiana University); Albert N. Link (Bryan School of Business and Economics University of North Carolina-Greensboro) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between an entrepreneur’s experience and education and his/her reliance on alternative sources of knowledge for exploring new business opportunities. The extant literature that is at the crossroads between sources of knowledge and the experiential and intellectual base of an entrepreneur (i.e., dimensions of his/her human capital) suggests that it is through experience and through education that an entrepreneur obtains knowledge. Using information on a sample of high-tech manufacturing firms across 10 European countries, we explore heterogeneities in the influence of experience, age, and education of the firm’s primary founder on the perceived importance of (i.e., use of) alternative sources of knowledge. We find that the association of these characteristics differs significantly across sources of knowledge, and across European regions. Education is positively related to the importance of knowledge from research institutes and internal know-how, while age is negatively related to the importance of research institutes and positively related to publications and conferences. On the one hand, in South/East European countries, the importance of internal know-how is positively associated with age and education, but negatively associated with experience. On the other hand, the characteristics of primary founders of North/West European firms are more linked to the importance of the participation to funded research programmes. This source of knowledge is related positively with age and education and negatively with experience. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship; Knowledge; Experience; Education; Human Capital |
| JEL: | L26 J24 D83 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:wpaper:201703&r=cta |
| By: | Jef Boeckx; Maite De Sola Perea; Gert Peersman |
| Abstract: | We use an original monthly dataset of 131 individual euro area banks to examine the effectiveness and transmission mechanism of the Eurosystem’s credit support policies since the start of the crisis. First, we show that these policies have indeed been succesful in stimulating the credit flow of banks to the private sector. Second, we find support for the “bank lending view†of monetary transmission. Specifically, the policies have had a greater impact on loan supply of banks that are more constrained to obtain unsecured external funding, i.e. small banks (size effect), banks with less liquid balance sheets (liquidity effect), banks that depend more on wholesale funding (retail effect) and low-capitalized banks (capital effect). The role of bank capital is, however, ambiguous. Besides the above favorable direct effect on loan supply, lower levels of bank capitalization at the same time mitigate the size, retail and liquidity effects of the policies. The drag on the other channels has even been dominant during the sample period, i.e. better capitalized banks have on average responded more to the credit support policies of the Eurosystem as a result of more favourable size, retail and liquidity effects. |
| Keywords: | unconventional monetary policy, bank lending, monetary transmission mechanism |
| JEL: | E51 E52 E58 G01 G21 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6442&r=cta |
| By: | Blandina Kilama; Constantine George; Lucas Katera |
| Abstract: | Following the successful completion of Phase I of the project, “Unpacking the Data Revolution†in Tanzania, the second phase was undertaken with the aim to explore in further detail those SDG monitoring areas that face particular data challenges. The objective is to increase understanding of these challenges, explore their implications and identify possible solutions. This paper focuses on two particular goal areas that have been identified for Tanzania to have significant data gaps, namely environment and governance. The present paper shows that in case of environment, data collection suffers from limited spatial coverage. As for governance, the available data is highly reliant on perception surveys. Findings reveal that although both these two goals have been given the necessary attention in previous national strategies, the availability of data for measuring progress towards selected targets is significantly lacking. Therefore, it is essential to build data capture capacity to facilitate the monitoring and assessment of indicators for environment and governance-related goals. The present paper suggests to improve coordination between data collectors in Tanzania, especially between the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and other agencies that collect routine (administrative) data to ensure the harmonisation and comparison of data from these different sources. |
| Keywords: | Tanzania, data gaps, monitoring SDGs, environment, governance, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svo:opaper:33&r=cta |
| By: | Eduardo Olaberría (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade, sound macroeconomic policies and an improved business environment have helped generate relatively strong GDP growth. Investments in infrastructure are improving connectivity and trade integration has been facilitated by lower tariffs. Simplification in opening of businesses, getting construction permits, registering property and payment of taxes improved the ease of doing business. Nevertheless, labour productivity remains low with large differences between firms and regions, and the contribution of technological progress to growth has been negative in recent years. Low productivity growth reflects poor educational and managerial quality, still large infrastructure gaps, low investment in innovation and R&D and stringent regulations in some sectors. To raise productivity growth Colombia should focus on some key areas. First, reverse the drop in public investment and reduce high transport and logistics costs. Second, intensify trade links and participation in GVCs, by further improving trade facilitation, to encourage firms to adopt the best technologies and know how. Third, create better incentives for firms to invest on R&D, and strengthen the links between the business sector and research institutions to foster innovation. Fourth, increase competition and reduce regulation in specific sectors to promote investment and facilitate the allocation of resources towards most productive firms. And fifth, upgrade the quality of education to develop better skills and professional management to enhance the creation and diffusion of new technologies. In 2016, the government established the National Policy for Productive Development to address the impediments to increased productivity. This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Colombia (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-surve y-colombia.htm) |
| Keywords: | competition, global value chains, international trade, misallocation, productivity |
| JEL: | F14 F23 L16 O24 |
| Date: | 2017–10–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1424-en&r=cta |
| By: | Steven Brakman; Harry Garretsen; Raoul van Maarseveen; Peter Zwaneveld |
| Abstract: | Stimulating firms to become exporters is of interest to policy makers, as exporters are in general more productive than non-exporters. However, selecting high export potentials is difficult in practice. The contribution of this paper is to characterize and identify these (high) export potentials. According to the Melitz (2003) model, potential exporters have to be productive enough to overcome the entry costs of foreign markets. Once firms pass this productivity threshold, they all export. Empirical evidence, however, indicates that a substantial share of high-productive firms does not export. In this paper, we focus specifically on this group of high-productive non-exporters. We employ a large micro-dataset for Dutch firms both in services and manufacturing for 2010-2014. Our findings are threefold. First, high productivity is an important, but not a sufficient condition for exporting. Firm size (substitute for productivity), import status, and foreign ownership are also important. Second, firm location is crucial. A location in peripheral areas prevents high productive firms from exporting; especially a location in the Northern part of the Netherlands reduces the probability to export. Third, the manufacturing sector differs from the services sector. Given that the median exporter in our sample is a services firm; this sector should be included in export research. |
| Keywords: | firm heterogeneity, export behavior, location |
| JEL: | F12 F14 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6544&r=cta |
| By: | Vimal Ranchhod (Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, School of Economics, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | How do poor households respond to the cessation of cash transfers in developing countries? South Africa's generous social pension system results in most of the poor elderly being the primary 'breadwinner' in the household. We extract a longitudinal dataset using the rotating panel component of the nationally representative Quarterly Labour Force Surveys, and use fixed effects regression models to estimate the magnitude of changes in household composition and employment that coincide with the departure of a pensioner from the household. We find statistically significant changes in both of these outcome measures. Compositional changes include a decrease in the number of school going aged children, the number of teenagers, and the number of young adults; while the number of older adults increases. We also find significant increases in the number of employed prime aged adults and older adults. The combination of compositional changes and employment changes results in an increase in the mean proportion employed in all of the working age adult groups that we investigate. Overall, households respond by decreasing the number of dependents, increasing the number of potential caregivers, and increasing the proportion of adults engaged in income generating activities. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:213&r=cta |
| By: | David H. Autor; Christopher J. Palmer; Parag A. Pathak |
| Abstract: | Gentrification involves large-scale neighborhood change whereby new residents and improved amenities increase property values. In this paper, we study whether and how much public safety improvements are capitalized by the housing market after an exogenous shock to the gentrification process. We use variation induced by the sudden end of rent control in Cambridge, Massachusetts in 1995 to examine within-Cambridge variation in reported crime across neighborhoods with different rent-control levels, abstracting from the prevailing city-wide decline in criminal activity. Using detailed location-specific incident-level criminal activity data assembled from Cambridge Police Department archives for the years 1992 through 2005, we find robust evidence that rent decontrol caused overall crime to fall by 16 percent—approximately 1,200 reported crimes annually—with the majority of the effect accruing through reduced property crime. By applying external estimates of criminal victimization’s economic costs, we calculate that the crime reduction due to rent deregulation generated approximately $10 million (in 2008 dollars) of annual direct benefit to potential victims. Capitalizing this benefit into property values, this crime reduction accounts for 15 percent of the contemporaneous growth in the Cambridge residential property values that is attributable to rent decontrol. Our findings establish that reductions in crime are an important part of gentrification and generate substantial economic value. They also show that standard cost-of-crime estimates are within the bounds imposed by the aggregate price appreciation due to rent decontrol. |
| JEL: | D61 R21 R23 R28 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23914&r=cta |
| By: | Christine de la Maisonneuve (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Growth has become more inclusive in recent years in Colombia. Strong growth and targeted social policies have reduced absolute poverty. Conditional cash transfers and education policies have increased attendance in schools. Universal health care is improving wellbeing of many Colombians. Reductions in non-wage labour costs have increased formal employment and access to social benefits. However, income inequality remains high with large disparities across regions. The causes are many. High informality keeps many workers in low quality jobs without social benefits or access to finance. Inequality is a gender issue as labour force participation rates and wages are lower for women than for men. Inequalities also reflect low social mobility as opportunities for education and jobs are influenced by socio-economic backgrounds. More targeted programmes are necessary to increase education enrolment rates of disadvantaged children in less developed regions. Further reductions in non-wage labour costs can raise formal employment. Better access to labour market programmes, early childhood education and elderly and disability care can boost female labour market participation. More resources are needed for targeted social programmes to achieve stronger outcomes. A comprehensive pension system reform is needed to extend coverage and alleviate old-age poverty. This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Colombia (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-surve y-colombia.htm) |
| Keywords: | Education, Health, Inclusive growth, Inequality, Informality, Labour market, Pensions, Regional Development, Social protection |
| JEL: | E24 E26 H20 H50 I0 J0 |
| Date: | 2017–10–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1423-en&r=cta |
| By: | Lanouar Charfeddine (College of Business and Economics, Qatar University); Karim Ben Khediri (CEROS, Université Paris Nanterre, France and FSEG Nabeul, University of Carthage, Tunisia); Goodness C. Aye (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | Bonds have become an important part of investment portfolios for individuals as well as for institutions, particularly after the recent financial crisis. This paper empirically investigates the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) in two of the most established bond markets in the world: the US and UK and two emerging markets: South Africa and India, using monthly data series spanning very long time periods. We examine the long memory properties of the series using GPH, ELW and FELW and multiple structural breaks technique to examine possibility of structural breaks. We then examine the weak-form efficiency of government bond markets, using a time varying approaches namely the state-space generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) to date the time varying behavior of bond market efficiency. Results show that efficiency of these markets has been changing over time, depending on the prevailing economic, political and market conditions. Further, we observe that the degree of the weak-form efficiency of these markets has been gradually improving recently. In particular, the US government bond market has been highly efficient, showing the highest degree of market efficiency among the four bond markets. Overall, our results suggest that the AMH provides a better description of the behavior of government bond returns than the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). |
| Keywords: | Adaptive market hypothesis, Bond Market, GARCH-M, Long memory, Market Efficiency, State-space Model, Time-varying |
| JEL: | C22 G12 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201771&r=cta |
| By: | Zorell, Nico |
| Abstract: | Over recent years, several euro area countries have registered large and persistent net foreign liabilities. This paper examines the risks arising from these external stock imbalances, the prospects for their smooth unwinding and the menu of policy options. The paper demonstrates that external stock imbalances remain a source of vulnerabilities in the (former) programme countries and, to a lesser extent, the euro area countries in central and eastern Europe. The net foreign liabilities of these economies stand at levels that are typically associated with an increased susceptibility to external crises. Mechanical projections indicate that the net foreign liabilities of the (former) programme countries will remain at elevated levels over the next decade despite some gradual adjustments, while those of the central and eastern European (CEE) countries could return to more sustainable levels more quickly. There are also vulnerabilities related to the composition of external positions, most notably the unfavourable debt-equity mix in the (former) programme countries. However, the long maturity of public external debt – which is often owed to official creditors – and, in the CEE countries, the prevalence of stable foreign direct investment should mitigate external sustainability risks. Furthermore, the net payments associated with the external positions of the euro area debtor countries are relatively low at the current juncture, although the burden could increase markedly if euro area interest rates were to normalise again. Against this backdrop, a timely and well-designed policy response would provide critical support to the orderly unwinding of the remaining external stock imbalances in the euro area. An optimal policy mix would consist of measures simultaneously fostering GDP growth and sustainable current account improvements in the debtor economies, in particular reforms aimed at enhancing productivity growth and export performance. JEL Classification: F21, F32, F34, F36, F45 |
| Keywords: | external adjustment, external imbalances, external sustainability, international investment positions, valuation effects |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2017198&r=cta |
| By: | Cyril May; Greg Farrell |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we extend the literature on modelling exchange rate volatility in South Africa by estimating a range of models, including some that attempt to account for structural breaks and long memory. We examine the key nominal exchange rates of the South African rand and replicate common findings in the literature; particularly that volatility is ‘persistent’. We investigate whether this ‘persistence’ is due to structural breaks or long memory, and the extent of asymmetric responses of the rand to ‘good news’ and ‘bad news’. Our results show that while long memory is evident in the actual processes, a structural break analysis reveals that this feature is partially explained by unaccounted shifts in volatility regime; the most striking finding is the remarkable fall in the estimates of volatility persistence when considerably more structural breaks than those identified in recent studies are detected and integrated into the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework. Furthermore, the asymmetrical GARCH model results provide evidence of leverage effects, indicating that negative shocks imply a higher next period volatility than positive shocks. The empirical results also shed light on the timing and likely triggers of volatility regime switching. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetry, GARCH, long memory, modelling volatility, structural change, volatility persistence |
| JEL: | C13 C32 F31 G10 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:705&r=cta |
| By: | Alfredo Marvão Pereira (Department of Economics, The College of William and Mary, Williamsburg VA 23187); Rui Manuel Pereira (Department of Economics, The College of William and Mary, Williamsburg VA 23187) |
| Abstract: | We estimate how infrastructure investments affect industrial CO2 emissions in Portugal. Using empirical evidence on the economic effects of twelve types of infrastructure investments at the industry level, we consider twenty-two industries and the respective CO2 emission factors. Our conclusions are as follows. First, given the current emission factors for each industry, almost all types on infrastructure investments help the emissions intensity of the economy. Only for investments in airports and in health facilities are such positive effects absent. Second, the relevance of the economic effects of the different types of infrastructure investments on the electrical power industry is central in determining the overall effects on emissions. This is not surprising, given that electric power accounts for nearly 35% of CO2 emissions in Portugal and the extremely high emissions factor of this industry amplifies even small economic effects. Third, under an alternative scenario in which the emissions from the electric power industry have been eliminated – due to the use of renewable energy in production, for example – , or are otherwise ignored, we still see that most infrastructure investments lead to a decline in the CO2 emissions intensity. In this case, however, investments in national roads leave the emissions intensity essentially unchanged, while investments in health infrastructure have adverse effects on emissions. There are several important policy implications of these results when we consider infrastructure investment strategies that are mindful of their CO2 emission effects. Consider, for instance, transportation infrastructures. Given the present electric power generating mix, investment in national roads would be an appropriate policy recommendation from an environmental perspective, while investments in airport infrastructure should be avoided. Under a scenario of aggressive use of renewable energy sources in the production of electricity, however, the best investments would be in railroads and airports, two industries highly dependent on the use of electricity |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure Investment, CO2 Emissions, Industry-level Economic Effects, Industry-level Emission Effects, VAR, Portugal |
| JEL: | C32 E22 H54 L90 O52 Q43 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mde:wpaper:0081&r=cta |
| By: | Ekaterina S. Demina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Evgeniy M. Ozhegov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This research analyzes the impact of the degree of omnivorousness on consumer choice in the book market. Panel Scanner data for 2012-2015 were provided by a Saint Petersburg chain store. The final sample was restricted to 10,789 purchase occasions made by 3,709 loyal clients in 2015. We assessed the degree of omnivorousness through the use of purchase histories of various book genres. A mixed logit model was employed to control for unobserved differences in preferences. The analysis revealed that consumers in the book market are highly heterogeneous, and this is partially explained by their degree of omnivorousness. Concerning such book characteristics like cover type, rating, format size, and publication year, omnivores’ preferences differ from univores’. However, the anticipated distinction in the coefficients of price and number of pages, based on previous researches, was not proved |
| Keywords: | omnivorism, discrete choice, demand for books, consumer behavior. |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:175/ec/2017&r=cta |
| By: | Andrew J. Hussey; Michael Jetter; Dianne McWilliam |
| Abstract: | Within the fundamental determinants of cross-country income inequality, ‘humanly devised’ political institutions represent a hallmark factor that societies can influence, as opposed to, for example, geography. Focusing on the portion of inequality explainable by differences in political institutions, we decompose annual cross-country Gini coefficients for 95 countries (representing 85 percent of the world population) from 1960-2012. Since 1988, inequality has marginally decreased (from a Gini of 0.525 to 0.521) but the portion that cannot be explained by political institutions has increased substantially (from 0.411 to 0.459). Specifically, the explanatory power of institutions fell rapidly from the late 1980s to the early 1990s. This result prevails when using alternative variables, expanding the sample, weighting countries by population size, and controlling for the remaining fundamental determinants of income: culture and education. Over the same timeframe, the explanatory power of geographical conditions has been rising. This phenomenon appears to be global and is unlikely to be driven by contemporary regional events alone, such as the fall of the Soviet Union, Asian success stories (e.g., China), or institutional monocropping in Africa. A corollary of our finding implies that, if we hold societies responsible for their political institutions, inequality has become notably less fair since the late 1980s. |
| Keywords: | fairness of income inequality, fundamental determinants of development, international inequality, political institutions |
| JEL: | D63 D72 E02 O11 O43 O47 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6320&r=cta |
| By: | Levasseur, Pierre |
| Abstract: | The effect of body-mass on labour outcomes seems to be closely linked to the level of development of the country concerned. In rich countries, excess weight is penalised at work, whereas in the poorest societies overweight is rewarded. These divergences indicate that this effect depends on sociocultural factors related to weight perception and stigmatisation. In the case of emerging economies, weight perception appears to be unclear given a hybrid nutritional panorama: hunger and obesity coexist. Although the literature suggests a quadratic causal relationship between body-mass and earnings in middle-income countries, these economies are quite heterogeneous in terms of the body-mass distribution. The main objective of this study is therefore to explore the impact of body-mass index (BMI) on hourly income in an emerging country with high obesity prevalence, such as Mexico. We use panel data from the Mexican Family Life Survey and perform a bootstrapped three-step parametric model, based on an expanded Mincer earning function to control for potential sample selection bias and endogeneity problems. Then, we test the robustness of results implementing a bootstrapped three-step semiparametric model. For employees, our results show a right-leaning U-inverted causal relationship between BMI and hourly wage in Mexico. In other words, while overweight is rewarded at work, obesity is significantly penalised. By contrast, for self-employed workers, we observe a linear and positive effect of BMI on earnings, at least up to a BMI of 32 kg/m². The source of stigmatisation, as well as sociocultural heterogeneity, can explain why earning penalties are higher for employers than self-employed workers. To conclude, our findings suggest that two paradoxical phenomena are occurring in emerging countries such as Mexico: (i) a social acceptance of overweight, due to past nutritional deprivations and to the growing normalisation of obesity; (ii) a social reject of obesity, due to the large diffusion and adoption of thinness ideals from Western culture. |
| Keywords: | Mexico; emerging countries; labour income; obesity; weight stigma. |
| JEL: | I15 J31 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81933&r=cta |
| By: | Macdonald, Ryan |
| Abstract: | Canada is a trading nation that produces significant quantities of resource outputs. Consequently, the behaviour of resource prices that are important for Canada is germane to understanding the progress of real income growth and the prosperity of the country and the provinces. Demand and supply shocks or changes in monetary policy in international markets may exert significant influence on resource prices, and their fluctuations constitute an important avenue for the transmission of external shocks into the domestic economy. This paper develops historical estimates of the Bank of Canada commodity price index (BCPI) and links them to modern estimates. Using a collection of historical data sources, it estimates weights and prices sufficiently consistently to merit the construction of long-run estimates that may be linked to the modern Fisher BCPI. |
| Keywords: | Economic accounts, History and context, Prices and price indexes, Statistical methods |
| Date: | 2017–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp3e:2017399e&r=cta |
| By: | Bratti, Massimiliano (University of Milan); Deiana, Claudio (University of Essex); Havari, Enkelejda (European Commission, Joint Research Centre); Mazzarella, Gianluca (University of Padova); Meroni, Elena Claudia (European Commission, Joint Research Centre) |
| Abstract: | In December 2016, in the middle of the "European refugee crisis", the Italian electorate voted for a referendum on crucial constitutional reform promoted by the governing party. The official aims of the reform were both to improve the country's governability and stability and to simplify the institutional setup. Despite not strictly being a political vote, as in the case of Brexit, the referendum was largely perceived as an assessment of the Prime Minister's work and the activity of his government. Using Italian municipality data, we provide novel empirical evidence on the impact of geographical proximity to refugee reception centres on voting behaviour. Our analysis demonstrates that being closer to refugee centres increased (1) the referendum turnout and (2) the proportion of anti-government votes. This evidence is consistent with the fact that the main opposition parties exploited the anti-immigration sentiments that were mounting in the population to influence people's voting. It also casts doubts on the political choice to put key decisions, such as changes in the Constitution of the Italian Republic (or leaving the European Union, as in the case of Brexit), to the popular vote at times when there are significant political emergencies to be faced. |
| Keywords: | proximity, voting, refugee reception centres, referendum, Constitution, Italy |
| JEL: | P16 R23 D72 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11060&r=cta |
| By: | Jan Stráský |
| Abstract: | Digitalisation, automation and future technological changes are changing the world of work, affecting the skills needed to perform them. The future of jobs will not look like the present situation: increasingly, workers will have to adapt to fast technological change, accept more mobility during their career, and regularly upgrade their skills to remain employable. Luxembourg’s workforce is highly skilled, reflecting the concentration in the country of sophisticated firms in the financial sector and other top-end international services. However, some middle- skilled routine jobs – especially back office, custodian and legal services in the financial sector – may disappear as a result of automation. Workers with strong and adaptable skills will be well prepared to thrive in this new environment. While many individuals working in Luxembourg already possess such characteristics, many others do not, resulting in a relatively high level of skills mismatch. Further improvements in the education system are needed to address this challenge, provide the young with learning-to-learn as well as technical capabilities and avoid that large groups of people are left behind. As skill sets will need to be updated during working careers, the system of initial education must be complemented by a flexible system of lifelong learning, tailored to the special needs of individuals with limited education attainment and older workers. Better use of existing skills would entail reorienting labour market policies from supporting job creation towards high-quality training programmes with substantial on-the-job learning component and reflecting future labour market needs. The tax and benefit system needs to be adjusted to increase incentives to work for low-skilled youth, older workers and second earners. Fully individualised taxation would increase incentives to work of second earners and make the tax system more gender neutral, while an additional parental leave entitlement for fathers may result in more gender-balanced use of part-time work. This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Luxembourg (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-surve y-luxembourg.htm). |
| Keywords: | active labour market policies, education system, labour markets, lifelong learning, long-term unemployment, vocational education and training |
| JEL: | I24 I25 I28 J21 J22 J24 J48 |
| Date: | 2017–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1417-en&r=cta |
| By: | Pooja Vijay Ramamurthi; Shweta Srinivasan; Deepthi Swamy; Rahul Kuttickat |
| Abstract: | Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) aims to “ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all†by 2030. India is home to the world’s largest population without access to modern energy – 400 million people do not have access to electricity and 800 million people still cook with traditional biomass. In this context, this study analyses the potential to embed the SDG 7 target of universal access to clean fuels and technologies into India’s national agenda. The analysis of the present paper shows that at the current pace of deployment of clean cooking technology, it seems unlikely that India will meet the SDG 7 target by 2030. In order to progress towards achieving this target, India needs to adopt a two-pronged technological approach – access to modern cooking fuel needs to be increased alongside efforts to make traditional cooking fuels safer to use. Consumer affordability, access and awareness all remain large barriers to the successful uptake of clean cooking technologies. There exists a lack of intra-governmental coordination, and existing networks are not effectively utilised. Non-governmental stakeholders have a key role to play in facilitating market finance, robust ‘last-mile’ distribution, community engagement, awareness-raising and after-sales services. Current data monitoring mechanisms also need to be modified so as to effectively track progress towards the SDG 7 target. |
| Keywords: | India, modern cooking fuels, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), clean cooking roadmap, SDG |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svo:opaper:36&r=cta |
| By: | Philipp Heimberger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This publication is available in German language only. For a brief English summary see further below. Diese Studie liefert eine detaillierte Analyse der Staatsausgabenstrukturen Österreichs im europäischen Vergleich anhand der COFOG-Daten („Classification of the Functions of Government“) von Eurostat. Der Fokus der Untersuchung liegt zum einen auf einer Einordnung der Staatsausgabenstrukturen Österreichs gegenüber anderen Eurozonenländern; dabei werden strukturelle Ähnlichkeiten und Unterschiede herausgearbeitet. Zum anderen werden neben den Vorzügen auch die Grenzen der von Eurostat bereitgestellten COFOG-Daten für Ländervergleiche analysiert. Eine detaillierte Effizienz- bzw. Effektivitätsanalyse einzelner staatlicher Ausgabenbereiche würde den Untersuchungsrahmen dieser Studie sprengen. Folgestudien, die sich eingehender mit europäischen Ländervergleichen zu den Staatsausgabenstrukturen beschäftigen, müssen vor allem jene Aspekte berücksichtigen, die im Hinblick auf die Kontextualisierung der Ausgabenstrukturen relevant sind. Durch die Möglichkeit des Ländervergleichs liefern die COFOG-Daten wertvolle Anhaltspunkte hinsichtlich struktureller Unterschiede und Ähnlichkeiten von Staatsausgaben. Hinsichtlich einer sinnvollen Verwendung der Daten ist jedoch zu beachten, dass simple quantitative Benchmark-Vergleiche von Staatsausgabenstrukturen, wie sie regelmäßig in anderen Studien vorgenommen werden, potentiell irreführend sind. Aussagen nach dem Muster „Die Quote der Sozialausgaben in Relation zur Wirtschaftsleistung ist in Land A niedriger (höher) als in den Ländern B und C, deshalb ist das Sozialsystem in Land A ausgabeneffizienter (weniger ausgabeneffizient) als in den Ländern B und C“ sind in der Regel wenig bis gar nicht aussagekräftig, wenn sie nicht in einen breiteren Kontext gestellt werden. Dies liegt insbesondere an drei Problemfeldern. Erstens sollten bei einem Vergleich mehrerer Länder öffentliche und private Ausgaben nach Möglichkeit zusammen betrachtet werden. Denn Unterschiede in der Systemgestaltung hinsichtlich privater und öffentlicher Ausgabenkomponenten schlagen sich auch in der Struktur der Staatsausgaben nieder. Zweitens müssen vergangene und zu erwartende gesellschaftshistorische und wirtschaftliche Entwicklungen in eine Analyse der staatlichen Ausgabenstrukturen einfließen, wenn diese kontextadäquat sein soll. Drittens bestehen zum einen bei der Zuordnung von Ausgaben auf Privat- und Staatssektor und zum anderen bei der Zuordnung staatlicher Ausgaben auf verschiedene Ausgabenbereiche im Detail Probleme Die Organisation staatlicher Leistungen kann dazu führen, dass Ausgabenunterschiede im Ländervergleich bei näherer Betrachtung mehr auf statistische als auf inhaltliche Differenzen zurückzuführen sind. Diese drei Problempunkte bedeuten nicht, dass Ländervergleiche der Ausgabenstrukturen generell nichts brächten; aber sie verweisen darauf, dass institutionelle Gegebenheiten, wirtschaftliche und gesellschaftliche Entwicklung sowie statistische Besonderheiten berücksichtigt werden müssen, wenn die Analyse mehrerer Länder nicht in die Irre führen soll. Diese Studie veranschaulicht die genannten drei Problempunkte hinsichtlich des Mehrländervergleichs von staatlichen Ausgabenstrukturen anhand von drei Eurozonenländern Österreich, Belgien und Deutschland. Dieser Ländervergleich erscheint zielführend, weil alle drei Länder ein vergleichbares Entwicklungs- und Wohlstandsniveau sowie relevante Ähnlichkeiten in Bezug auf institutionelle Charakteristika und ökonomische Verflochtenheit aufweisen. Der Schwerpunkt liegt insbesondere auf der Analyse der Bildungs-, Gesundheits- und Sozialausgaben, weil diesen drei Bereichen sowohl aufgrund ihres quantitativen Budgetanteils als auch in politischen Debatten besondere Relevanz zukommt. Die staatlichen Bildungs-, Gesundheits- und Sozialausgaben machen in Österreich zusammengenommen 67,1% der gesamten Staatsausgaben aus, was sich im Vergleich mit den anderen EU-Ländern als typisch für einen entwickelten Sozialstaat erweist. Sowohl in der EU‑28 als auch im Euroraum entfielen im Jahr 2015 rund zwei Drittel aller Staatsausgaben auf diese Bereiche. Während die skandinavischen Wohlfahrtsstaaten und Eurozonen-Kernländer wie Deutschland, Österreich und Frankreich von diesem Durchschnitt nach oben abweichen, sind die staatlichen Ausgabenquoten für Bildung, Gesundheit und soziale Sicherung insbesondere in den im Zuge jüngster EU-Erweiterungsrunden hinzugekommenen Ländern wie Bulgarien und Rumänien relativ gering. Aber auch südeuropäische Länder weisen in der Regel unterdurchschnittliche Ausgabenanteile in den Bereichen Bildung, Gesundheit und soziale Sicherung auf. Seit dem Ausbruch der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise ist innerhalb der Eurozone ein verstärktes Auseinanderdriften in den Staatsausgaben zwischen Kernländern wie Deutschland, Österreich und Belgien und den südlichen Peripherieländern zu verzeichnen; insbesondere in Griechenland, aber auch in Portugal, Spanien und Italien sind aufgrund der Budgetkonsolidierungspolitik die realen Bildungs-, Gesundheits- und Sozialausgaben mit wenigen Ausnahmen zwischen 2008 und 2015 markant gesunken. Innerhalb der EU-Staaten zeigt sich, dass eine höhere Staatsausgabenquote mit geringeren privaten Konsumausgaben in Relation zu den Gesamtausgaben im Zusammenhang steht Je höher die staatliche Ausgabenquote im jeweiligen EU-Land ist, desto geringer fällt der Anteil der privaten Konsumausgaben an den gesamten Ausgaben aus (und umgekehrt). Dieses Ergebnis deutet darauf hin, dass staatliche Ausgaben eine Entlastung für private Haushalte darstellen können. Zudem zeigt sich, dass europäische Länder, die sich durch volkswirtschaftlichen Erfolg und hohe Produktivität auszeichnen (dazu zählt auch Österreich), in der Regel einen ausgebauten Sozialstaat mit einer relativ hohen Staatsausgabenquote aufweisen. Der österreichische Sozialstaat bringt mit seiner Staatsausgabenquote im europäischen Vergleich ein ausgeprägtes Umverteilungspotential mit sich, weil die Umverteilung der Markteinkommen großteils ausgabenseitig (und nicht über Steuern) vollzogen wird. English Summary Austria’s government expenditure structures in European comparison This study analyses Austria’s government expenditure structures in a European comparison by using Eurostat’s COFOG data (‘Classification of the Functions of Government’). On the one hand, the analysis focuses on putting government expenditure structures into comparative perspective with other eurozone countries. On the other hand, restricting the analysis to emphasising the advantages of multi-country analysis proves insufficient, since there are important limits to using Eurostat’s COFOG data for quantitative benchmark comparisons. A detailed efficiency or effectiveness analysis was beyond the scope of this study. Consecutive analyses dealing with multi-country comparisons should put special weight on those factors that are crucial for contextualising similarities and differences in government expenditure structures. By allowing for government expenditures to be compared across countries, the COFOG data provide valuable reference points regarding structural differences and similarities of government expenditures. However, if the data are to be used appropriately, one should not stop at simple quantitative benchmark comparisons as regularly undertaken in other studies. Statements such as ‘The ratio of social expenditures to GDP in country A is lower (higher) than in countries B and C; hence, the social system in country A is more efficient (less efficient) than in countries B and C’ are usually not very informative and potentially misleading if they are not put into proper context. Three points are especially relevant. First, public and private expenditures should be integrated into a proper analysis, because differences in the design of private and public expenditure components have a marked impact on expenditure structures. Second, both the past and projected future of relevant developments in the economy and society and their effect on expenditures should be considered if the analysis is to be context-adequate. Third, the attribution of expenditures to the private and public sector is fraught with difficulties. The organisation of government services can lead to expenditure differences across countries, which, after taking a closer look, turn out to be more due to differences in statistics rather than substance. Those three problem areas do not imply that country comparisons should not be undertaken at all; but they suggest that institutional conditions, developments in the economy and society as well as statistical peculiarities need be to accounted for in order to avoid that the COFOG data analysis ends up being misleading. This study illustrates the three problems mentioned in terms of quantitative multi-country comparisons by analysing three euro-area countries Austria, Belgium and Germany. Comparing those three countries makes sense because they have important similarities in terms of their level of economic development and prosperity, their institutional characteristics and production structures. The focus is on analysing expenditures on education, health and social protection, as those three areas make up the largest part of the overall budget and prove particularly important for policy discussions. In Austria, public expenditures on education, health and social protection amount to 67.1% of total government expenditures, which proves to be typical of advanced welfare states in the EU. Both in the EU-28 and in the euro area, about two thirds of government expenditures are spent on those three areas. While the Scandinavian welfare states and euro-area core countries such as Germany, Austria and Belgium are above the average, new EU Member States such as Bulgaria and Romania but also older Member States in the southern periphery allocate a smaller part of overall government expenditures to education, health and social protection. For the period after the financial crisis, the analysis indicates a further drifting apart in government expenditure structures, as periphery countries – which already had lower government expenditure ratios to GDP on education, health and social protection – have fallen further behind vis-à-vis core countries such as Germany, Austria and Belgium. In Greece, but to a smaller extent also in Portugal, Spain and Italy, fiscal consolidation policies have led to a marked decline in real government expenditures on education, health and social protection. |
| Keywords: | Staatsausgaben, Österreich, Bildung, Gesundheit, Sozialausgaben, government spending, Austria, education, health, social expenditures |
| JEL: | H11 H41 H51 H52 H53 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:ratpap:rpg:8&r=cta |