nep-cse New Economics Papers
on Economics of Strategic Management
Issue of 2016‒08‒07
534 papers chosen by
João José de Matos Ferreira
Universidade da Beira Interior

  1. Foreign multinationals and domestic innovation: intra-industry effects and firm heterogeneity By Riccardo Crescenzi; Luisa Gagliardi; Simona Iammarino
  2. The new paradigm of international production: Empirical evidence of Spanish offshoring activities By de Matías Batalla, David
  3. Betting on Exports: Trade and Endogenous Heterogeneity By Rosario Crino; Gino Gancia; Alessandra Bonfiglioli
  4. Endogenous Choice of Price or Quantity Contract with Upstream R&D Investment: Linear Pricing and Two-part Tariff Contract with Bargaining By Lee, DongJoon; Choi, Kangsik; Nariu, Tatsuhiko
  5. Wybrane zagadnienia współpracy badawczo-rozwojowej przedsiębiorstw w ujęciu ekonomii gałęziowej By Karbowski, Adam; Prokop, Jacek
  6. Innovative Strategies in Higher Education for Accelerated Human Resource Development in South Asia: Sri Lanka By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  7. Innovative strategies in higher education for accelerated human resource development in South Asia: Bangladesh By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  8. Globalization and the markups of European firms By Békés, Gábor; Hornok, Cecília; Muraközy, Balázs
  9. Patent rights, product market reforms, and innovation By Aghion, Philippe; Howitt, Peter; Prantl, Susanne
  10. Knowledge Shocks Diffusion and the Resilience of Regional Inequality By Alexandra López-Cermeño
  11. Entrepreneurial University Culture: The Clash of Values And Resistance to Change By Gerasim A. Mkrtychyan
  12. Competition Between For-Profit and Non-Profit Firms: Incentives, Workers’ Self-Selection, and Wage Differentials By F. Barigozzi; N. Burani
  13. Productivity Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment: The Case of Ethiopia By Abeba Nigussie Turi
  14. Product Mix and Firm Productivity Responses to Trade Competition By Thierry Mayer; Marc J. Melitz; Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano
  15. Research Funding and Regional Economies By Goldschlag, Nathan; Bianchini, Stefano; Lane, Julia; SanMartin Sola, Joseba; Weinberg, Bruce A.
  16. Identifying Revealed Comparative Advantages in an EU Regional Context By Alexander Cordes; Birgit Gehrke; Christian Rammer; Roman Römisch; Paula Schliessler; Pia Wassmann
  17. Competition between Firms in Economic Evolution: Its Characteristics and Differences to the Biological Sphere By Su, Tong-Yaa
  18. Anticompetitive Practices in Romania, during 2012-2013 By Claudia BALAN
  19. Innovaciones financieras para adaptación al riesgo climático: el caso de las coberturas basadas en índices By Thomasz, Esteban Otto; Casparri, María Teresa
  21. Augmenting the Human Capital Earnings Equation with Measures of Where People Work By Erling Barth; James Davis; Richard B. Freeman
  22. Adverse Outcome Pathway on Protein Alkylation Leading to Liver Fibrosis By Brigitte Landesmann
  23. Firm-level productivity and international expansion of firms from the Lodz Voivodeship By Piotr Gabrielczak; Tomasz Serwach
  24. Moral hazard and strategic default: evidence from Greek corporate loans By Ioannis Asimakopoulos; Panagiotis K. Avramidis; Dimitris Malliaropulos; Nickolaos G. Travlos
  25. Does the US EXIM Bank Really Promote US Exports? By Natasha Agarwal; Zheng Wang
  26. Economía, gestión y fútbol: de la pasión a la sostenibilidad financiera By Mesa Callejas, Ramón Javier; Osorio Agudelo, Jair Albeiro; Castaño Rios, Carlos Eduardo
  27. Russian industrial enterprises in 2015 (on the basis of business surveys) By Tsukhlo Sergey
  28. How competitiveness shocks affect macroeconomic performance across euro area countries By Karsten Staehr; Robert Vermeulen
  29. The situation in the science and innovation sphere in Russia in 2015 By Dezhina Irina
  30. Over-education among italian Ph.D. graduates. Does the crisis make a difference? By Barbara Ermini; Luca Papi; Francesca Scaturro
  31. The Role of Emerging Economies in the Global Price Formation Process of Commodities: Evidence from Brazilian and U.S. Coffee Markets By Martin T. Bohl; Christian Gross; Waldemar Souza
  32. Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry By Aghion, Philippe; Dechezleprêtre, Antoine; Hemous, David; Martin, Ralf; Van Reenen, John
  33. Impact of Structural Reforms on Regional Growth: Distance to the Frontier Matters By Sabine D'Costa; Enrique Garcilazo; Joaquim Oliveira Martins
  34. Political determinants of fiscal transparency: a panel data empirical investigation By Cicatiello, Lorenzo; De Simone, Elina; Gaeta, Giuseppe Lucio
  35. The RRI Co-Authorship Network Analysis: 1965-2014 By Randall Jackson; Jing Chen
  36. Administered Prices in Japan: Institutional Comparisons with Europe and the United States By Kohei Shintani; Yoshiyuki Kurachi; Shinichi Nishioka; Takashi Okamoto
  37. Information Communication Technologies and Firm Performance: Evidence for UK Firms By Tim De Stefano; Richard Kneller; Jonathan Timmis
  38. An Event Study of Patent Verdicts and Judicial Leakage By Bryan Engelhardt; Zachary Fernandes
  39. Rising inequality and trends in lesiure By Rachel Ngai; Timo Boppart
  40. THE 2016 CALIFORNIA MARIJUANA INITIATIVE AND YOUTH: Lessons from Alcohol Policy By Mosher, James F JD
  41. Learning in Crowded Markets By Adam Zawadowski; Peter Kondor
  42. Values for Environments with Externalities - The Average Approach By Inés Macho-Stadler; David Pérez-Castrillo; David Wettstein
  43. Evaluating Advertising Effectiveness of Creative Television Advertisements for High Involvement Products. By Ali, Mazhar
  44. Proxy voting policies as tools for shareholder engagement in CSR: an exploratory study By Rachelle Belinga; Blanche Segrestin
  45. Culture and Institutions By Alesina, Alberto Francesco; Giuliano, Paola
  47. Assigning pollution permits: are uniform auctions efficient? By Alvarez, Francisco; André, Francisco J.; Mazón, Cristina
  48. “Attitudes to Leadership and Voting: Finding the Efficient Frontier” By Davis, Brent
  49. How High Schools Explain Students’ Initial Colleges and Majors By Rajeev Darolia; Cory Koedel
  50. No Extension without Representation? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Collective Bargaining By Alexander Hijzen; Pedro S. Martins
  51. Advancing Innovation and Inclusion for a Prosperous Asia: Proceedings of the ADB-Asian Think Tank Development Forum 2015 By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  52. A Scale-Free Transportation Network Explains the City-Size Distribution By Berliant, Marcus; Watanabe, Hiroki
  53. Consumption-based emission accounting for Chinese cities By Mi, Zhifu; Zhang, Yunkun; Dabo Guan; Shan, Yuli; Zhu Liu; Cong, Ronggang; Yuan, Xiao-Chen; Wei, Yi-Ming
  54. Researchers' Career Transitions over the Life Cycle By Kawaguchi, Daiji; Kondo, Ayako; Saito, Keiji
  55. Multi-factor CES Elasticity and Productivity Growth: A Cross-Sectional Approach By Jiyoung Kim; Satoshi Nakano; Kazuhiko Nishimura
  56. Large dynamic covariance matrices By Robert F. Engle; Olivier Ledoit; Michael Wolf
  57. Cooperation among behaviorally heterogeneous players in social dilemma with stay of leave decisions By Xiaochuan Huang; Takehito Masuda; Yoshitaka Okano; Tatsuyoshi Saijo
  58. The Strange Career of Independent Voting Trusts in U.S. Rail Mergers By Russell Pittman
  59. An Alternative Approach towards the Knowledge Production Function on a Regional Level - Applications for the USA and Russia By Jens K. Perret
  60. Industrialization in China By Brandt, Loren; Ma, Debin; Rawski, Thomas
  61. Predictability of Growth in Emerging Markets: Information in Financial Aggregates By Banegas, Ayelen
  62. When Overconfident Traders Meet Feedback Traders By Fabrice Rousseau; Hervé Boco; Laurent Germain
  63. Panel remarks at Bank Indonesia–Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint International Seminar, Bali Indonesia By Dudley, William
  64. The power of weak interests in financial reforms: Explaining the creation of a US consumer agency By Kastner, Lisa
  65. Including Relationship-Based Care Practices in Infant-Toddler Care: Implications for Practice and Policy By Laura Sosinsky; Karen Ruprecht; Diane Horm; Kerry Kriener-Althen; Cheri Vogel; Tamara Halle
  66. Perspectives for the development of trade relations between Slovak Republic and Republic of Bulgaria via Danube River By Koralova, Petya
  67. Client First: Knowledge Solutions for Southeast Asia By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  68. Banking the Unbanked? Evidence from three countries By Dupas, Pascaline; Karlan, Dean S.; Robinson, Jonathan; Ubfal, Diego
  69. Employment and Earning Gaps in the Early Career of Ethnic Minority British Graduates: the Importance of University Choice, Parental Background and Area Characteristics By Wouter Zwysen; Simonetta Longhi
  70. CEO Incentives: Measurement, Determinants, and Impact on Performance By Peng, Lin; Roell, Ailsa; Tang, Hongfei
  71. External Validity in a Stochastic World By Mark Rosenzweig; Christopher Udry
  72. Reforms for the Ease of Doing Business in Vietnam: Implications for Total Factor Productivity in Manufacturing Industries By Daniel Rais
  73. Counter Intuitive Learning: An Exploratory Study By Nobuyuki Hanaki; Alan Kirman; Paul Pezanis-Christou
  74. Trade, Finance and Endogenous Firm Heterogeneity By Rosario Crino; Gino Gancia; Alessandra Bonfiglioli
  75. The "Entrepreneurial Boss" Effect on Employees' Future Entrepreneurship Choices: A Role Model Story? By Rocha, Vera; van Praag, Mirjam C.
  76. Migration and Globalization: What's in it for Developing Countries? By Rapoport, Hillel
  77. China’s Foreign Investment By McGrattan, Ellen R.
  78. Evolution of bankruptcy institution: from insolvency of state-owned enterprises towards electronic SRO trading facilities By Radygin Alexandr; Apevalova Elena; Polezhaeva Natalia
  79. The Effect of Medicare Eligibility on Spousal Insurance Coverage By Marcus Dillender; Karen Mulligan
  80. Innovation, Pricing and Targeting in Networks By Fabrizio Panebianco; Thierry Verdier; Yves Zenou
  81. Reviving Lakes and Wetlands in People's Republic of China, Volume 3: Best Practices and Prospects for the Sanjiang Plain Wetlands By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  82. Short-Run Externalities of Civic Unrest: Evidence from Ferguson, Missouri By Gershenson, Seth; Hayes, Michael S.
  83. Socio-Economic Predictors of Student Mobility By Ilya Prakhov; Maria Bocharova
  84. Manufacturing doubt By Yann Bramoullé; Caroline Orset
  85. Dinámica del tipo de cambio, quiebre estructural e intervenciones de política en Colombia By Jorge Mario Uribe; Natalia Restrepo López
  86. Operational performance management of the power industry: A distinguishing analysis between effectiveness and efficiency By Ke Wang; Chia-Yen Lee; Jieming Zhang; Yi-Ming Wei
  87. Comparative advantage of the EU in global value chains: How important and efficient are new EU members in transition? By Gurgul, Henryk; Lach, Łukasz
  88. Parenting, Family Care and Adolescence in East and Southern Africa: An evidence-focused literature review By Rachel Bray; Andrew Dawes; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti
  89. Russia’s Foreign trade in 2015 By Volovik Nadezhda
  91. Liquidity Management in Banking: What is the Role of Leverage? By Quynh Anh VO
  92. GENERATION OF INVESTMENT POTENTIAL By Naima Khashimova; Jamola Khusanjanova
  93. The situation in the public sector and privatization in Russia in 2015 By Radygin Alexandr; Malginov Georgiy
  94. Scheduling the replenishment of just-in-time supermarkets in assembly plants By Emde, Simon
  95. Functional Systemic Risk, Complementarities and Early Warnings By Cañón Salazar Carlos Iván;Gallón Santiago;Olivar Santiago
  96. Financiación autonómica del gasto social: cronicidad y desigualdades By David Cantarero Prieto; Marta Pascual Sáez
  97. Multidimensional Polarization Index and its Application to an Analysis of the Russian State Duma By Fuad Aleskerov; Victoria Oleynik
  98. Rio 2016: Sozioökonomische Projektion des Olympischen Medaillenranking By Wolfgang Maennig; Christian Wellbrock
  99. The boundary non-Crossing probabilities for Slepian process By Pingjin Deng
  100. Human Capital and Growth of E-postal Services: A cross-country Analysis in Developing Countries By Dalibor Gottwald; Libor Švadlenka; Hana Pavlisová
  101. Fluctuation of USA Gold Price - Revisited with Chaos-based Complex Network Method By Susmita Bhaduri; Dipak Ghosh; Subhadeep Ghosh
  102. The Interaction and Sequencing of Policy Reforms By Timothy Kehoe; Sewon Hur; Kim Ruhl; Jose Asturias
  103. Absolute and Relative Ambiguity Aversion: A Preferential Approach By Simone Cerreia Vioglio; Fabio Maccheroni; Massimo Marinacci
  104. Estimating trade policy effects with structural gravity By Piermartini, Roberta; Yotov, Yoto V.
  105. Capital Market Distortion, Firm Dynamics and Wage Inequality By Beladi, Hamid; Chao, Chi-Chur; Ee, Mong Shan
  106. The U.S. economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy: remarks at Bank Indonesia–Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint International Seminar, Bali Indonesia By Dudley, William
  107. Understanding the sources of macroeconomic uncertainty By Barbara Rossi; Tatevik Sekhposyan; Matthieu Soupre
  108. Ambiguity and the precautionary principle in climate change policies: a note By Elettra Agliardi
  109. Natives and Migrants in Home Production: The Case of Germany By Emanuele Forlani; Elisabetta Lodigiani; Concetta Mendolicchio
  110. Decision-Making under the Gambler's Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires By Chen, Daniel L.; Moskowitz, Tobias; Shue, Kelly
  111. Public Sector Employment in an Equilibrium Search and Matching Model By Susan Vroman; Monica Robayo-Abril; James Albrecht
  112. Stabilité ou instabilité des stratégies commerciales ? Le cas des circuits courts dans l'agriculture française By Magali Aubert; Geoffroy Enjolras
  113. Russia’s participation in WTO trade disputes By Knobel Alexander; Baeva Marina
  114. Growth and Convergence in the Central and East European Countries towards EU /1992-2002/ By Vasilev, Aleksandar
  115. Price dynamics on residential property in Russia in 2015 By Malginov Georgiy; Sternik G.
  116. Industrial production dynamics in particular sectors of Russian industry By Idrisov Georgy; Kaukin Andrey; Ponomarev Yuri
  117. Decision evaluation process in end-of-life systems management By Yasmina Bouzarour-Amokrane; Ayeley Tchangani; François Pérès
  118. Business Models and the Impact of Different Market Contexts: Towards an analytical framework for researchers and practitioners By Oke Chr. Beckmann & Susanne Royer
  119. Return Plans and Migrants' Behavior By Chabé-Ferret, Bastien; Machado, Joel; Wahba, Jackline
  121. Relationships in the interbank market By Chiu, Jonathan; Monnet, Cyril
  122. Menu Costs, Uncertainty Cycles, and the Propagation of Nominal Shocks By Isaac Baley; Julio A. Blanco
  123. Menu costs, uncertainty cycles, and the propagation of nominal shocks By Isaac Baley; Julio A. Blanco
  124. Calidad de vida laboral en Colombia: un índice multidimensional difuso By Mónica Sofía Gómez; Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte; Andrés Fernando Carreño; Vicente Royuela
  125. Dollarization, liquidity and performance: Evidence from Turkish banking By Caglayan, Mustafa; Talavera, Oleksandr
  126. Linear Credit Risk Models By Damien Ackerer; Damir Filipović
  127. Informality and Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa By Aalia Cassim; Kezia Lilenstein; Morné Oosthuizen; Francois Steenkamp; Tara Caetano
  128. Stymied ambition: Does a lack of economic freedom lead to migration? By Meierrieks, Daniel; Renner, Laura
  129. Are migrants more productive than stayers? Some evidence for a set of highly productive academic economists By Ruiz-Castillo, Javier; Carrasco, Raquel; Albarrán, Pedro
  130. Nonparametric hypothesis testing for equality of means on the simplex By Tsagris, Michail; Preston, Simon; T.A. Wood, Andrew
  131. Understanding the Sources of Macroeconomic Uncertainty By Rossi, Barbara; Sekhposyan, Tatevik; Soupre, Mattheiu
  132. The Holders and Issuers of International Portfolio Securities By Vahagn Galstyan; Philip R. Lane; Caroline Mehigan; Rogelio Mercado
  133. Measures of variance for smoothed disturbances in linear state-space models: a clarification By Allin Cottrell; Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti; Matteo Pelagatti
  134. Tajikistan: Country Gender Assessment By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  135. Linked-Employer-Employee-Daten des IAB: LIAB-Querschnittmodell 2 1993 - 2014 (LIAB QM2 9314) By Klosterhuber, Wolfram; Lehnert, Patrick; Seth, Stefan
  136. The Opportunity Costs of Entrepreneurs in International Trade By Kehoe, Timothy J.; Pujolas, Pau S.; Ruhl, Kim J.
  137. Asymmetric volatility connectedness on forex markets By Jozef Barunik; Evzen Kocenda; Lukas Vacha
  138. Disruptive Technologies and their Implications for Economic Policy: Some Preliminary Observations By Danny Leipziger; Victoria Dodev
  139. Adverse Outcome Pathway on Alkylation of DNA in Male Pre-Meiotic Germ Cells Leading to Heritable Mutations By Carole Yauk; Iain Lambert; Francesco Marchetti; George Douglas
  140. Mode of Islamic Bank Financing: Does Effectiveness of Shariah Supervisory Board Matter? By Waemustafa, Waeibrorheem; Abdullah, Azrul
  141. Ethnic Inequality By Alesina, Alberto Francesco; Michalopoulos, Stelios; Papaioannou, Ellias
  142. A regression model of product differentiation By Mogens, Fosgerau
  143. Recalibrarea sistemului bancar european in contextul noilor cerinte si realitati By Danila, Marius
  144. The Effect of Occupational Licensing on Consumer Welfare: Early Midwifery Laws and Maternal Mortality By Anderson, D. Mark; Brown, Ryan; Charles, Kerwin Kofi; Rees, Daniel I.
  145. International Banking and Cross-Border Effects of Regulation: Lessons from Canada By H. Evren Damar; Adi Mordel
  146. Private Leverage and Sovereign Default By Yan Bai; Luigi Bocola; Cristina Arellano
  147. Efficiency measurement in health facilities: Literature review in low- and middle-income countries By Firdaus Hafidz; Tim Ensor; Sandy Tubeuf
  148. The revealed comparative advantages of late-Victorian Britain By Brian D. Varian
  149. An exploration of real-time revisions of output gap estimates across European countries. By Pablo Hernández de Cos; Aitor Lacuesta; Enrique Moral-Benito
  150. Family, Community and Long-Term Earnings Inequality By Bingley, Paul; Cappellari, Lorenzo; Tatsiramos, Konstantinos
  151. Understanding the Sources of Macroeconomic Uncertainty By Barbara Rossi; Tatevik Sekhposyan; Matthiew Soupre
  152. Proportionality, Equality, and Duality in Bankruptcy Problems with Nontransferable Utility By Dietzenbacher, Bas; Estévez-Fernández, A.; Borm, Peter; Hendrickx, Ruud
  153. Recovery from Work and the Productivity of Working Hours By Pencavel, John
  154. Financial Markets and Financial Institutions in Russia in 2015 By Abramov Alexander
  155. Returns to Schooling among Immigrants in Spain: A Quantile Regression Approach By Budría, Santiago; Swedberg, Pablo; Fonseca, Marlene
  156. Memory vs Mental Picture: Can Learning be Quantum? An Experimental Study By Ismaël Rafaï; Sébastien Duchêne; Eric Guerci; Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky; Fabien Mathy
  157. Market approval process, responsibility failure, and pressure groups. By Pierre FAUVET
  158. The market of land plots in Russia in 2015 By Zadonsky Georgy
  159. Bailing on the car that wasn’t bailed out: bounding consumer reactions to financial distress By Huse, Cristian; Koptyug, Nikita
  160. The Preservation of Historic Districts - Is it Worth it? By Sevrin Waights
  161. Driving forces of Chinese primary air pollution emissions: an index decomposition analysis By Lyu, Wanning; Yuan Li; Dabo Guan; Hongyan Zhao; Qiang Zhang; Zhu Liu
  162. The determinants of selling through a short food supply chains: an application to the French case By Magali Aubert
  163. Equidad y responsabilidad en la financiación autonómica. Una propuesta de reforma By Antoni Zabalza
  164. Exposure to Poverty and Productivity By Dalton, Patricio; Gonzalez Jimenez, Victor; Noussair, Charles
  165. International Trade Fluctuations and Monetary Policy By Ana Maria Santacreu; Fernando Leibovici
  166. Globalization of World Economy By Razvan GRECU
  167. Learning and Behavioral Spillovers of Nutritional Information By Singh, Prakarsh
  168. Intra Firm Bargaining and Shapley Values By Pieter Gautier; Guido Menzio; Bjoern Bruegemann
  169. Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Autoregressive Models with a Near Unit Root and Cauchy Errors By Jungjun Choi; In Choi
  170. Existence and uniqueness of solutions to dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints By Holden, Tom D.
  171. Strengthening competition in network sectors and the internal market in Canada By Corinne Luu
  172. Risk Diversification and International Trade By Federico Esposito
  173. “One size does not fit all” – institutional determinantsof financial safety net effectiveness By Aleksandra Masłowska-Jokinen; Anna Matysek-Jędrych
  174. The Shareholder Wealth Effects of Delaware Litigation By Badawi, Adam B.; Chen, Daniel L.
  175. Optimal Population in a Finite Horizon By Satoshi Nakano; Kazuhiko Nishimura
  176. La estrategia de inflación objetivo en Colombia. Una visión histórica By Enrique A. López-Enciso; Hernando Vargas-Herrera; Norberto Rodríguez-Niño
  177. Vazamento de demanda setorial e competitividade da indústria de transformação brasileira By Paulo César Morceiro
  178. Cash and non-cash payments in a long run perspective, Spain 1989-2014 By Maixe-Altes, J. Carles; Mourelle, Estefanía
  179. Academic Inbreeding and Research Productivity Of Russian Faculty Members By Olga Gorelova; Andrey Lovakov
  180. The Three I's of Public Schools: Irrelevant Inputs, Insufficient Resources and Inefficiency By Henderson, Daniel J.; Simar, Léopold; Wang, Le
  181. Assessing health facility performance in Indonesia using the Pabón Lasso Model and unit cost analysis of health services By Firdaus Hafidz; Tim Ensor; Sandy Tubeuf
  182. Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility By Michael Ehrmann; Jonathan Talmi
  183. Ethnic and Racial Disparities in Children's Education: Comparative Evidence from Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam By Mohamed Arouri; Adel Ben Youssef; Cuong Nguyen
  184. Providing Advice to Job Seekers at Low Cost: An Experimental Study on Online Advice By Belot, Michèle; Kircher, Philipp; Muller, Paul
  185. Liquidity Traps and Monetary Policy: Managing a Credit Crunch By Juan Pablo Nicolini
  186. Worldwide Opportunities on Organic Farms (WWOOF) as part of the existing care economy in Canada By Lans, Cheryl
  187. Demographic change and regional convergence in Canada By Geloso, Vincent; Kufenko, Vadim; Prettner, Klaus
  188. Comments on: Nonparametric Tail Risk, Stock Returns and the Macroeconomy By Lorenzo CAMPONOVO; Olivier SCAILLET; Fabio TROJANI
  189. Reining in Wall Street to Benefit All Americans By Dean Baker
  190. Dette : 5000 ans d’histoire By David Cayla
  191. "Face the Bullet, Spare the Rod?" Evidence from the Aftermath of the Shining Path Insurgency By Morales, Alvaro; Singh, Prakarsh
  192. Are Online Labor Markets Spot Markets for Tasks?: A Field Experiment on the Behavioral Response to Wage Cuts By Chen, Daniel L.; Horton, John
  193. Housing Affordability in Austria by Age and Year of Move-in. Application of the Residual Income and Tailored Ratio Approach By Andrea Kunnert
  194. Pricing Weakly Model Dependent Barrier Products By Jan Kuklinski; Panagiotis Papaioannou; Kevin Tyloo
  195. Aufstiegsmobilität und -chancen auf dem regionalen Arbeitsmarkt: Stand und Entwicklungspotenzial in der regionalen Logistik By Benedix, Ulf
  196. ASEAN Corporate Governance Scorecard Country Reports and Assessments 2014 By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  197. Total factor productivity heterogeneity: channelling the impact of institutions By Agostino, Mariarosaria; Nifo, Annamaria; Trivieri, Francesco; Vecchione, Gaetano
  198. Replicating Portfolio Approach to Capital Calculation By Mathieu Cambou; Damir Filipović
  199. SPDE limit of the global fluctuations in rank-based models By Praveen Kolli; Mykhaylo Shkolnikov
  200. Literacy in Spain in the 19th century: An econometric analysis By Rafael Barquín; Pedro Pérez; Basilio Sanz
  201. The Impact of Immigrant Peers on Native Students' Academic Achievement in Countries Where Parents of Immigrants Are Relatively Skilled By Seah, Kelvin
  202. Challenges facing higher education in Russia in 2015 By Klyachko Tatiana
  203. What Explains the Difference in the Effect of Retirement on Health?: Evidence from Global Aging Data By Motegi, H.; Nishimura, Y.; Oikawa, M.
  204. The Inherent Benefit of Monetary Unions By Groll, Dominik; Monacelli, Tommaso
  206. Gray's Anatomy: Understanding Uncertainty By Samaniego, Roberto; Sun, Juliana
  207. Asia Bond Monitor - June 2016 By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  208. The Corporation Is Not a Nexus of Contracts. It’s an iPhone. By Richard N. Langlois
  209. Viewpoint: Estimating the Causal Effects of Policies and Programs By Smith, Jeffrey A.; Sweetman, Arthur
  210. A Perfect Specialization Model for Gravity Equation in Bilateral Trade based on Production Structure By Einian, Majid; Ravasan, Farshad
  211. Impact of China’s slowdown on the Global Economy: Modified GVAR Approach By Dinda, Soumyananda
  212. Global value chains, large-scale farming, and poverty: long-term effects in Senegal By Goedele Van den Broeck; Johan Swinnen; Miet Maertens
  213. Firm size distortions and the productivity distribution: evidence from France By Luis Garicano; Claire Lelargez; John Van Reenen
  214. Are banks’ below-par own debt repurchases a cause for prudential concern? By Lubberink, Martien; Renders, Annelies
  215. Structural Change and Poverty Reduction at Sub-State Levels in India By Sen Gupta, Abhijit; More, Vishal; Gupta, Kanupriya
  216. Does Long-Term Care Subsidisation Reduce Unnecessary Hospitalisations? By Joan Costa-Font; Sergi Jiménez-Martín; Cristina Villaplana
  217. Gender Equality Results Case Study: Nepal Gender Equality and Empowerment of Women Project By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  220. Newspapers in Times of Low Advertising Revenues By Angelucci, Charles; Cagé, Julia
  221. The North Caucasus: risks are on the rise By Starodubrovskaya Irina
  222. Intérêt social et objet social, ou comment renouveler une convention d'entreprise By Blanche Segrestin
  223. Benefit Sharing Exploring Water Resources in Brazil By Tiago P. Ferraz
  224. The Human Development Index in Canada: Ranking the Provinces and Territories Internationally, 2000-2014 By James Uguccioni
  225. Indonesia Country Water Assessment By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  226. A Standardized Treatment of Binary Similarity Measures with an Introduction to k-Vector Percentage Normalized Similarity By Stacey, Brian
  227. What Can We Learn from Student Attitudes for International Achievement Tests? By Kyle Peyton; Chris Ryan; Justin van de Ven
  228. Housing Affordability in Austria. Tailoring the Ratio Approach in a Simple yet Effective Way By Andrea Kunnert
  229. The Impact of Merger Legislation on Bank Mergers By Elena Carletti; Steven Ongena; Jan-Peter Siedlarek; Giancarlo Spagnolo
  230. Politiques de santé et théories économiques By Véronique Thireau
  231. The Effect of Inflation and Interest Rates on Forward-Looking Effective Tax Rates By Centre for European Economic Reserach (ZEW)
  232. Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns By Kimberly Berg; Nelson C. Mark
  233. How Central Banks End Crises By Guillermo Ordonez; Gary Gorton
  234. In God We Learn? Religions' Universal Messages, Context-Specific Effects, and Minority Status By Méon, Pierre-Guillaume; Tojerow, Ilan
  235. Feature Selection with the R Package MXM: Discovering Statistically-Equivalent Feature Subsets By Lagani, Vincenzo; Athineou, Giorgos; Farcomeni, Alessio; Tsagris, Michail; Tsamardinos, Ioannis
  236. Macroeconomic effects of public-sector unions By Vasilev, Aleksandar
  237. A careerist judge with two concerns By Ascensión Andina Díaz; José A. García-Martínez
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  474. On the essentiality of E-money By Chiu, Jonathan; Wong, Tsz-Nga
  475. Compositions vs Gini: A new metric to evaluate the effects of land-income disparities. By Mauricio Velasquez
  476. Exchange Rate Targeting in the Presence of Foreign Debt Obligations By James Staveley-O'Carroll; Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll
  477. Incarceration, recidivism and employment By Manudeep, Bhuller; Dahl, Gordon B.; Løken, Katrine V.; Mogstad, Magne
  478. Hourly Price Elasticity Pattern of Electricity Demand in the German Day-ahead Market By Knaut, Andreas; Paulus, Simon
  479. The Portfolio Rebalancing Channel of Quantitative Easing By Valentin Jouvanceau
  480. How green are economists? By Stefano Carattini; Alessandro Tavoni
  481. Social Ties of University Students: Evidence from a Longitudinal Survey in Russia By Ekaterina V. Krekhovets; Liudmila A. Leonova
  482. Tax Evasion and Institutions. An Experiment on The Role of Principal Witness Regulations By Johannes Buckenmaier; Eugen Dimant; Luigi Mittone
  483. Financial services, the EU, and Brexit: an uncertain future for the city? By Niamh Moloney
  484. Local self-government in the North Caucasus: alterations in regional legislation as risk triggers By Kazenin Konstantin
  485. A comprehensive ex-post assessment of the Italian RES policy: deployment, jobs, value added and import leakages By Mattia Cai, Niccolò Cusumano, Arturo Lorenzoni, Federico Pontoni
  486. Cost Channel, Interest Rate Pass-Through and Optimal Policy under Zero Lower Bound By Chattopadhyay, Siddhartha; Ghosh, Taniya
  487. Cognitive Performance and Labor Market Outcomes By Lin, Dajun; Lutter, Randall; Ruhm, Christopher J.
  488. How Do Pre-School and/or School-Age Children Affect Parents' Likelihood of Migration and Off-Farm Work in Rural China's Minority Regions? By Ding, Sai; Dong, Xiao-Yuan; Maurer-Fazio, Margaret
  489. On the Use of Computer Programs as Money By Ross D. King
  490. The Long-lasting Shadow of the Allied Occupation of Austria on its Spatial Equilibrium By Eder, Christoph; Halla, Martin
  491. Financing of Social Protection Systems. Budget Funds for Social Economy By Ana-Alexandrina POPESCU
  492. Political Turnover, Ownership, and Corporate Investment By Cao, Jerry; Julio, Brandon; Leng, Tiecheng; Zhou, Sili
  493. Self-Fulfilling Sovereign Debt Crises By Zachary Stangebye; Satyajit Chatterjee; Harold Cole; Mark Aguiar
  494. Why ZLB Economics and Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) are wrong By Thomas I. Palley
  495. Mortgage Design in an Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market By Timothy McQuade; Arvind Krishnamurthy; Adam Guren
  496. Can't Work or Won't Work: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Work Search Requirements for Single Parents By Avram, Silvia; Brewer, Mike; Salvatori, Andrea
  497. Ökonomische Auswirkungen einer Bildungs- und Wissenschaftsschranke im Urheberrecht By Haucap, Justus; Loebert, Ina; Spindler, Gerald; Thorwarth, Susanne
  498. Insurance in human capital models with limited enforcement By Tom Krebs; Moritz Kuhn; Mark Wright
  499. The stability of money demand in the long-run: Italy 1861–2011 By Vittorio Daniele; Pasquale Foresti; Oreste Napolitano
  500. China's New Lost Generation: The Casualty of China's Economic Transformation By Gary Jefferson
  501. Investment in fixed assets in Russia in 2015 By Izryadnova Olga
  502. Investment in fixed assets in Russia in 2015 By Izryadnova Olga
  503. Efficient exposure computation by risk factor decomposition By Cornelis S. L. de Graaf; Drona Kandhai; Christoph Reisinger
  504. Deutsche Arbeitskosten auf Stabilitätskurs By Alexander Herzog-Stein; Camille Logeay; Ulrike Stein; Rudolf Zwiener
  505. Caring an ageing population : challenges, facts, artifacts and policies By Philippe Mossé
  506. Priming Ideology: Why Presidential Elections Affect U.S. Judges By Chen, Daniel L.
  507. Metastable Features of Economic Networks and Responses to Exogenous Shocks By Ali Hosseiny; Mohammad Bahrami; Antonio Palestrini; Mauro Gallegati
  508. Climate change, heat stress and labour productivity: A cost methodology for city economies By Hélia Costa; Graham Floater; Hans Hooyberghs; Stijn Verbeke; Koen De Ridder
  509. New consumers behaviours in the sharing economy: An experimental analysis on food waste reduction By Piergiuseppe Morone; Pasquale Marcello Falcone; Enrica Imbert; Marcello Morone; Andrea Morone
  510. Is Inflation Default? The Role of Information in Debt Crises By Carlo Galli; Marco Bassetto
  511. Unemployment Duration and Job-Match Quality in Urban China: The Dynamic Impact of 2008 Labor Contract Law By You, Jing; Wang, Shaoyang
  512. Why household inefficiency? An experimental approach to assess spousal resource distribution preferences in a subsistence population undergoing socioeconomic change By Gurven, Michael; Hopfensitz, Astrid; Kaplan, Hillard; Stieglitz, Jonathan
  513. Impact of Caregiver Incentives on Child Health: Evidence from an Experiment with Anganwadi Workers in India By Singh, Prakarsh; Masters, William A.
  514. Long-term Consequences of Workplace Bullying on Sickness Absence By Eriksen, Tine Louise Mundbjerg; Hogh, Annie; Hansen, Åse Marie
  515. La mise en pratique culinaire comme projet d'autonomisation des jeunes apprentis-consommateurs en matière d'alimentation By Emilie Orliange; Valérie-Inès De La Ville; Marie-Line Huc
  516. The re-pricing of sovereign risks following the global financial crisis By Dimitris Malliaropulos; Petros M. Migiakis
  517. International portfolio selection on European stock markets based on time-varying betas By José Soares da Fonseca
  518. The enigmatic dollar-euro exchange rate and the world's biggest forex market - performance, causes, consequences By Jan Priewe
  519. Testing for Financial Market Integration of the Chinese Market with the US Market By Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser; Mustafa, Alan
  520. Optimal adjustment paths in a monetary union By Belke, Ansgar; Gros, Daniel
  521. A Conceptual Design of “What and How Should a Proper Macro-Prudential Policy Framework Be?” A Globalistic Approach to Systemic Risk and Procuring the Data Needed By Cakir, Murat
  522. The land use change time-accounting failure By Marion Dupoux
  523. Vulnerability to Poverty: Tajikistan during and after the Global Financial Crisis By Ira N. Gang; Ksennia Gatskova; John Landon Lane; Myeong-Su Yun
  524. A Unified Approach to Estimating Demand and Welfare By Redding, Stephen J.; Weinstein, David E.
  525. On the Distribution of the Welfare Losses of Large Recessions By Krueger, Dirk; Mitman, Kurt; Perri, Fabrizio
  526. Decentralisation, Regional Autonomy and Ethnic Civil Wars: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis, 1950-2010 By Tranchant, Jean-Pierre
  527. Fiscal Policy, Inequality and Poverty in Iran: Assessing the Impact and Effectiveness of Taxes and Transfers By Ali Enami; Nora Lustig; Alireza Taqdiri
  528. The signalling content of asset prices for inflation: Implications for Quantitative Easing By Leo de Haan; Jan Willem van den End
  529. A bird-eye view of Costa Rica's transport infrastructure By Mauro Pisu
  530. Intergovernmental fiscal relations and subnational finance in Russia in 2015 By Mamedov Arseny; Fomina Elena; Belev Sergey
  531. Emissions Trading Schemes and Their Linking: Challenges and Opportunities in Asia and the Pacific By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  532. Central bank and asymmetric preferences: An application of sieve estimators to the U.S. and Brazil By de Sá, Rodrigo; Savino Portugal, Marcelo
  533. CGE-Based Methods to Measure the Impact of Trade Liberalization on Poverty By Isabel Teichmann
  534. Modelling the impacts of trade on employment and development: A structuralist CGE-model for the analysis of TTIP and other trade agreements By Raza, Werner; Taylor, Lance; Tröster, Bernhard; von Arnim, Rudi

  1. By: Riccardo Crescenzi; Luisa Gagliardi; Simona Iammarino
    Abstract: This paper looks at foreign Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) investing in the UK and at their impact on the innovation performance of domestic firms active in their same sector. By employing data on Foreign Direct Investments matched with firm-level information the paper develops a direct measure of capital inflows at a three-digit industry level. In order to capture innovation in both manufacturing and services the paper relies on a broader proxy for firm innovativeness based on the Community Innovation Survey (CIS). The results suggest that domestic firms active in sectors with greater investments by MNEs show a stronger innovative performance. However, the heterogeneity across domestic firms in terms of internationalization of both their market engagement and ownership structure is the main driver of this effect.
    Keywords: multinational enterprises; innovation technological change; intra-industry knowledge diffusion; community innovation survey; United Kingdom
    JEL: F22 O33
    Date: 2015–04
  2. By: de Matías Batalla, David
    Abstract: In this paper, the author presents the impact of new players and factors in international business activities, which have a direct influence on international economic structure. One of the most important determinants over the last decades has been foreign direct investment, which has encouraged the dislocation of business activities in many industries. This, together with the rest of foreign direct investment, makes the author think of extending the OLI model to OLIM, where M is the mode of entry. One type of this mode is offshoring which makes easier the relocation of business activity from developed economies to developing economies. The study of offshoring activities is the focus of this paper, with the data coming from a survey of 166 Spanish multinational firms. Empirical evidence should provide us the main factors that motivate Spanish multinational firms to be engaged in foreign direct investment via offshoring.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment,eclectic paradigm,internationalization process,offshoring,multinational firms
    JEL: D23 F21 F23
    Date: 2016
  3. By: Rosario Crino (Catholic University of Milan); Gino Gancia (CREI); Alessandra Bonfiglioli (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
    Abstract: We study the equilibrium determinants of firm-level heterogeneity in a model in which firms can affect the variance of their productivity draws at the entry stage and explore the implications in closed and open economy. By allowing firms to choose the size of their investment in innovation projects of unknown quality, the model yields a Pareto distribution for productivity with a shape parameter that depends on industry-level characteristics. A novel result is that export opportunities, by increasing the payoffs in the tail, induce firms to invest in bigger projects with more spread-out outcomes. Moreover, when more productive firms also pay higher wages, trade amplifies wage dispersion by making all firms more unequal. These results are consistent with new evidence on how firm-level heterogeneity and wage dispersion vary in a panel of U.S. industries. Finally, we use patent data across U.S. states and over time to provide evidence in support of a specific mechanism of the model, namely, that export opportunities increase firm heterogeneity by fostering innovation.
    Date: 2016
  4. By: Lee, DongJoon; Choi, Kangsik; Nariu, Tatsuhiko
    Abstract: We investigate the endogenous choice of strategic variable (a price or a quantity) by downstream firms in a two-tier industry in which an upstream firm performs the R&D investment. We show that when the upstream firm offers either linear discriminatory or uniform input price, it is a dominant strategy for each downstream firm to choose Bertrand competition when two products become relatively differentiated. Second, from the viewpoint of downstream firms, we show that Bertrand competition is more efficient than Cournot competition in some boundaries of Cournot equilibrium, which implies that each downstream firm faces a prisoners' dilemma under the Cournot equilibrium. However, when the downstream firms involve in centralized bargaining with an upstream firm to determine the two-part tariff discriminatory (uniform) input pricing contracts, we find that choosing price (quantity) contract is the dominant strategy for downstream firms. In this case, we further show that the level of social welfare is the same regardless of the mode of product market competition (i.e., Bertrand or Cournot).
    Keywords: Endogenous Choice, Bertrand competition, Cournot competition, Upstream Investment, Bargaining
    JEL: D43 L13 M21
    Date: 2016–07–22
  5. By: Karbowski, Adam; Prokop, Jacek
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze selected problems of interfirm R&D cooperation discussed in the industrial organization literature. Analyzed interrelated problems are: (i) stability of interfirm R&D cooperation, (ii) organization of interfirm R&D cooperation, (iii) asymmetries between cooperating firms and (iv) the impact of interfirm R&D cooperation on industry cartelization. On the basis of the literature review it can be concluded that the necessary condition for reaching benefits from interfirm R&D cooperation is to (1) successfully solve the free-rider problem arising in the process of knowledge sharing between collaborating firms and further (2) maintain stable cooperation. Obstacles to stable R&D cooperation can be, however, too low or too high values of asymmetries occurring between cooperating firms. Effective stabilization of interfirm R&D cooperation can be achieved, among others, by licensing of know-how, intensification of knowledge sharing between cooperating firms and various organizational forms of R&D cooperation (research joint-ventures and R&D cartels). From the social welfare perspective it should be also noted that tightening up of an interfirm cooperation at the R&D stage can result in the cartelization of industry (cartel on the market of a final good can be formed).
    Keywords: interfirm cooperation, research and development, industrial organization
    JEL: L24 O32
    Date: 2016
  6. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: This publication is part of a series of six country reports on technical and vocational education and training (TVET) and higher education in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. Each report presents current arrangements and initiatives in the respective country’s skills development strategies. These are complemented by critical analyses to determine key issues, challenges, and opportunities for innovative strategies toward global competitiveness, increased productivity, and inclusive growth. The emphasis is to make skills training more relevant, efficient, and responsive to emerging domestic and international labor markets. The reports were finalized in 2013 under the Australian AID-supported Phase 1 of Subproject 11 (Innovative Strategies for Accelerated Human Resource Development) of Regional Technical Assistance 6337 (Development Partnership Program for South Asia).
    Keywords: Education, South Asia, TVET, higher education, global competitiveness, Human Resource Development, skills training
    Date: 2016–06
  7. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: This publication is part of a series of six country reports on technical and vocational education and training (TVET) and higher education in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. Each report presents current arrangements and initiatives in the respective country’s skills development strategies. These are complemented by critical analyses to determine key issues, challenges, and opportunities for innovative strategies toward global competitiveness, increased productivity, and inclusive growth. The emphasis is to make skills training more relevant, efficient, and responsive to emerging domestic and international labor markets. The reports were finalized in 2013 under the Australian AID-supported Phase 1 of Subproject 11 (Innovative Strategies for Accelerated Human Resource Development) of Regional Technical Assistance 6337 (Development Partnership Program for South Asia).
    Keywords: Education, South Asia, TVET, higher education, global competitiveness, Human Resource Development, skills training
    Date: 2016–05
  8. By: Békés, Gábor; Hornok, Cecília; Muraközy, Balázs
    Abstract: We use a unique cross-section survey of manufacturing firms from four European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain) linked with balance sheet data to study the relationship between key aspects of globalization and firm-level markups. The main results are: (i) Exporting is positively correlated with markups; (ii) Importing intermediate inputs and outsourcing are also positively correlated with markups; (iii) Firms with affiliates have higher markups than other firms, while simply membership in a group or being foreign-owned seems to be less important; (iv) Perceived competition from low-cost markets is negatively correlated with markups; (v) Higher quality production and innovation, especially if it results in IP, has a strong positive relationship with markups; (vi) While these variables are correlated, they are significant in a joint model including all four groups, and 'fully globalized' firms tend to charge around 100% higher markups than non-globalized firms.
    Keywords: markups,exporting,importing,FDI,innovation
    JEL: D22 D24 F14 L11 L60
    Date: 2016
  9. By: Aghion, Philippe; Howitt, Peter; Prantl, Susanne
    Abstract: In this paper, we provide empirical evidence to the effect that strong patent rights may complement competition-increasing product market reforms in fostering innovation. First, we find that the product market reform induced by the large-scale internal market reform of the European Union in 1992 enhanced, on average, innovative investments in manufacturing industries of countries with strong patent rights since the pre-sample period, but not so in industries of countries with weaker patent rights. Second, the positive response to the product market reform is more pronounced in industries where, in general, innovators tend to value patent protection higher than in other industries, except for the manufacture of electrical and optical equipment. The observed complementarity between competition and patent protection can be rationalized using a Schumpeterian growth model with step-by-step innovation. In such a model, better patent protection prolongs the period over which a firm that successfully escapes competition by innovating, actually enjoys higher monopoly rents from its technological upgrade.
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Alexandra López-Cermeño (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
    Abstract: This paper provides a simplified method of exploring the geographical limits of a knowledge shock over the long run. Using a geographically decomposable distanceweighed sum of world GDPs by county, differences in differences regression analysis shows that a new university will not only have a positive impact on the local economy, but also on the GDP of nearby counties. Furthermore, challenging the conventional wisdom that knowledge spillovers affect the local economy, this study provides evidence that the effect expands to the whole nation although its strength dilutes with distance. Consistent with the education literature, this investigation provides evidence that the shock will make the relative GDP of foreign competitors worse-off. Results are persistent in the long run, although the effect of time is also decreasing. Results are robust to potential endogeneity related to the self-selection of prosperous allocations for new academic institutions.
    Keywords: New Economic Geography, Spillovers, U.S Counties
    JEL: L8 N72 R11 O18
    Date: 2016–07
  11. By: Gerasim A. Mkrtychyan (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper introduces an original methodology for assessing the organizational culture of an entrepreneurial university. Methods for the assessment of values in research activity and of resistance to organizational change have been developed. The study of values and characteristics of resistance to change was conducted on the academic staff of the faculties of Economics and Management at the Nizhny Novgorod campus of the Higher School of Economics. It was found that the campus professors' academic orientation in research activity dominates their entrepreneurial orientation and that the strength of this influence differs amongst them, depending on their values. Additionally, greatest resistance in professors is caused by changes in human resources policy and management; this resistance is of moderate intensity and passive. The study confirms a positive relationship between the academic orientation of the "motivation" and "reward" values and the intensity of resistance to change in personnel policy and management.
    Keywords: entrepreneurial university, organizational culture, academic values, entrepreneurial values, resistance to change.
    JEL: M14
    Date: 2016
  12. By: F. Barigozzi; N. Burani
    Abstract: We study optimal non-linear contracts offered by two firms competing for the exclusive services of workers, who are privately informed about their ability and motivation. Firms differ in their organizational form, and motivated workers are keen to be hired by the non-profit firm because they adhere to its mission. If the for-profit firm has a competitive advantage over the non-profit firm, the latter attracts fewer high-ability workers with respect to the former. Moreover, workers exert more effort at the for-profit than at the non-profit firm despite the latter distorts effort levels upwards. Finally, a wage penalty emerges for non-profit workers which is partly due to compensating effects (labor donations by motivated workers) and partly due to the negative selection of ability into the non-profit firm. The opposite results hold when it is the non-profit firm that has a competitive advantage.
    JEL: D82 D86 J24 J31 M55
    Date: 2016–07
  13. By: Abeba Nigussie Turi (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: This paper presents the spillover effect resulting from the foreign direct investment with a focus on the manufacturing firms in Ethiopia. Being one of the pillars of the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), identifying the productivity spillovers arising from the FDI to the sector is timely. The research covers extensive econometric analysis based on the Central Statistics Agency’s (CSA) survey, for the years 2004 up to 2010, on the manufacturing firms and an Input-Output matrix, for the year 2005/6, constructed by the Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI). My analysis suggests that there is an econometric evidence for positive Backward spillovers and negative Forward spillovers to the total productivity of the manufacturing firms in the country. The paper’s findings on this aspect are limited. Because, the analysis entirely rely on industry level secondary data and only one year Input-Output matrix. Therefore, there is a potential for further research work; given this benchmark finding.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Spillover Effect, Total Factor Productivity
    JEL: F2 F21 F23
    Date: 2015–12
  14. By: Thierry Mayer; Marc J. Melitz; Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano
    Abstract: We document how demand shocks in export markets lead French multi-product exporters to re-allocate the mix of products sold in those destinations. In response to positive demand shocks, those French firms skew their export sales towards their best performing products; and also extend the range of products sold to that market. We develop a theoretical model of multi-product firms and derive the specific demand and cost conditions needed to generate these product-mix reallocations. Our theoretical model highlights how the increased competition from demand shocks in export markets .and the induced product mix reallocations - induce productivity changes within the firm. We then empirically test for this connection between the demand shocks and the productivity of multi-product firms exporting to those destinations. We find that the effect of those demand shocks on productivity are substantial .and explain an important share of aggregate productivity fluctuations for French manufacturing.
    Keywords: productivity, trade, competition
    Date: 2016–07
  15. By: Goldschlag, Nathan (U.S. Census Bureau); Bianchini, Stefano (Université de Strasbourg); Lane, Julia (New York University); SanMartin Sola, Joseba; Weinberg, Bruce A. (Ohio State University)
    Abstract: Public support of research typically relies on the notion that universities are engines of economic development, and that university research is a primary driver of high wage localized economic activity. Yet the evidence supporting that notion is based on aggregate descriptive data, rather than detailed links at the level of individual transactions. Here we use new micro-data from three countries - France, Spain and the United States - to examine one mechanism whereby such economic activity is generated, namely purchases from regional businesses. We show that grant funds are more likely to be expended at businesses physically closer to universities than at those farther away. In addition, if a vendor has been a supplier to a grant once, that vendor is subsequently more likely to be a vendor on the same or related grants. Firms behave in a way that is consistent with the notion that propinquity is good for business; if a firm supplies a research grant at a university in a given year it is more likely to open an establishment near that university in subsequent years than other firms.
    Keywords: science policy, innovation, regional economic development, UMETRICS
    JEL: O30 R10
    Date: 2016–07
  16. By: Alexander Cordes; Birgit Gehrke; Christian Rammer; Roman Römisch (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Paula Schliessler; Pia Wassmann
    Abstract: Abstract This study introduces a suitable method to break down national trade data to the regional level. This allows producing trade indicators at the regional level, revealed export advantages in particular. Identifying industries in which a region realises a strong trade specialisation plays a twofold role in industrial and regional policy-making. Firstly, identifying successful structures at the industry-region level helps to improve the understanding of micro- and meso-foundations for competitiveness as well as scope and cases for policy intervention. Secondly, knowledge of the spatial distribution of competitive industries and required location factors is necessary for differentiated perspectives on future economic development and the choice of policy instruments. The study applies descriptive, econometric and case study analysis to identify regional patterns of trade specialisation, as well as region- and industry-specific factors related to success in international markets. Based on the results obtained, the study develops conclusions for EU regional and smart specialisation policies.
    Keywords: EU regions, regional foreign trade, EU regional policy, smart specialisation strategies, regional competitiveness, determinants of competitiveness
    JEL: R12 R15 R58 F14
    Date: 2016–07
  17. By: Su, Tong-Yaa
    Abstract: This paper investigates the characteristics of competition among firms from an evolutionary perspective. It develops a coherent approach to economic competition that incorporates two kinds of evolutionary concepts currently used and emerging at the intersection of social sciences, including economics, and biology: Darwinian thinking as well as the naturalistic approach. Inspired by evolutionary theory, the intersection commonly captures concepts that make metaphorical use of Darwinian ideas – these concepts draw on an analogy construction to the biological sphere. As a result in this paper, different characteristics of economic competition may be analogically described by different forms of biological selection, e.g., genetic group selection. However, selection processes do not only act on genes, but also on culture. By considering the naturalistic approach, differences to the biological sphere are revealed. The crux of this paper is the deduction that competition between firms is a form of cultural group selection in economic evolution.
    Keywords: Competition; Evolutionary Theory; Selection Processes; Continuity Hypothesis
    JEL: B52 D49
    Date: 2016–01–12
  18. By: Claudia BALAN (Student, Masters Financial Management, Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest)
    Abstract: At national level, but also at European level, the market economy has the competition as the main regulating force. Of course, there are practices that distort this force of the economy, unfair practices (anticompetitive deals and the abuse of dominant position) that worsen the competitive environment. Romania, as a European state, is guided to comply with the competition policy. We, as European consumers, are involved directly in maintaining the internal balance because the anticompetitive practices are affecting us directly. The Romanian state needs, like any other state, competitiveness and performance. But can the rules of the competition policy ensure the success of an economic market given that a market economy without competition is unthinkable?
    Keywords: competition, anticompetitive practices, Competition Council
    JEL: D40 L40
    Date: 2016–04
  19. By: Thomasz, Esteban Otto; Casparri, María Teresa
    Abstract: The aim of this work is to present an exploratory synthesis of international experience related to index-based insurance, in order to assess their potential applicability as adaptation to climate risk in the case of countries dependent of agriculture. It will attempt to define the particular engineering these instruments , define its main characteristics, identify their advantages and disadvantages compared to traditional insurance; and from the study of international experience analyze the feasibility of implementing this tool . This line of research aims to identify the challenges faced by countries in developing for the implementation of these instruments.
    Keywords: index-based insurance, climate risk, agriculture.
    JEL: G22 Q14
    Date: 2015
  20. By: Yogesh Punia
    Abstract: Information and communication technology (ICT) stands for the combined set of resources, whether physical, infrastructure or human, that stands for the efficient transformation of information across the globes. In the recent years, we have witnessed several changes in the global scenario as the rapidly boundaries caused the people, society and nations to merge together for a common cause of development. The spread of information and communication technology and global interconnectedness has great potential to accelerate human progress to bridge the digital divide and develop knowledge societies. Sustainable development is required for maintaining proper balance between the exhausting resources and our existence. This paper is an attempt to explore the various aspects of ICT, the challenges in its implementation and future prospects of ICT in our vision of world as a better place - to live and to prosper. Key words: ICT and Sustainable Development
    Date: 2016–06
  21. By: Erling Barth; James Davis; Richard B. Freeman
    Abstract: We augment standard ln earnings equations with variables reflecting unmeasured attributes of workers and measured and unmeasured attributes of their employer. Using panel employee-establishment data for US manufacturing we find that the observable employer characteristics that most impact earnings are: number of workers, education of co-workers, capital equipment per worker, industry in which the establishment produces, and R&D intensity of the firm. Employer fixed effects also contribute to the variance of ln earnings, though substantially less than individual fixed effects. In addition to accounting for some of the variance in earnings, the observed and unobserved measures of employers mediate the estimated effects of individual characteristics on earnings and increasing earnings inequality through the sorting of workers among establishments.
    Date: 2016–01
  22. By: Brigitte Landesmann
    Abstract: Liver fibrosis is an important human health issue associated with chemical exposure. It is a typical result of chronic toxic injury and one of the considered endpoints for regulatory purposes. This AOP describes the linkage between hepatic injury caused by protein alkylation and the formation of liver fibrosis. Fibrogenesis is a long-term and complex process for which an adequate cell model is not available and an in vitro evaluation of fibrogenic potential is therefore not feasible yet. This systematic and coherent display of currently available mechanistic-toxicological information can serve as a knowledge-based repository for identification/selection/development of in vitro methods suitable for measuring key events and their relationships along the AOP and to facilitate the use of alternative data for regulatory purposes. Identified uncertainties and knowledge gaps can indicate priorities for future research.
    Keywords: liver fibrosis, protein alkylation, hepatotoxicity
    Date: 2016–08–04
  23. By: Piotr Gabrielczak (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz); Tomasz Serwach (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz)
    Abstract: The paper investigates the link between firm-level productivity and internationalization (through exports, imports and FDI) in the Lodz Voivodeship, Poland. Two hypotheses have been tested –self-selection and learning by internationalization. It has been found that productivity may affect import and FDI decisions of firms, while there is no evidence of such an effect regarding exports. At the same time, there is no proof for learning, suggesting that within the timeframe of the analysis firms from the Lodz Voivodeship do not experience productivity gains due to international trade or investment.
    Keywords: international trade, foreign direct investment, internationalization, productivity, self-selection, learning
    JEL: F12 F23 D22
    Date: 2016–08
  24. By: Ioannis Asimakopoulos (Bank of Greece); Panagiotis K. Avramidis (ALBA Graduate Business School at the American College of Greece); Dimitris Malliaropulos (Bank of Greece, University of Piraeus); Nickolaos G. Travlos
    Abstract: Using a unique dataset of corporate loans of 13,070 Greek firms for the period 2008-2015 and an identification strategy based on the internal credit ratings of banks, we provide evidence that one out of six firms with non-performing loans are strategic defaulters. Furthermore, we investigate potential determinants of firms’ behavior by relating the probability of strategic default to a number of firm characteristics such as size, age, liquidity, profitability and collateral value. We provide evidence of a positive relationship of strategic default with outstanding debt and economic uncertainty and a negative relationship with the value of collateral. Also, profitability and collateral can be used to distinguish the strategic defaulters from the financially distressed defaulters. Finally, we find evidence that the relationship of strategic default risk with firm size and age has an inverse U-shape, i.e. strategic default is more likely among medium-sized firms compared to small and large firms and it is also more likely among middle-aged firms compared to new-founded and established firms.
    Keywords: Strategic default; Non-performing loans; Corporate loans; Leverage
    JEL: G01 G21 G32 C23
  25. By: Natasha Agarwal; Zheng Wang
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) on US exports particularly in the wake of international competition from foreign national export credit agencies (ECAs). We employ a gravity framework on a country-industry-year-level panel dataset that matches EXIM authorizations with US bilateral exports. Our results depict the general ineffectiveness of the Bank in promoting exports within and across industries. Some heterogeneities behind the general finding are also uncovered: industries other than aerospace parts and products are more likely to benefit from EXIM authorizations, and that EXIM authorizations to larger businesses seem to be more effective in encouraging exports. Furthermore, we find no evidence that explains the role of EXIM in encouraging US exports by offsetting foreign ECA competition. These results are neither affected by competing countries’ membership to the OECD Arrangement nor by the size of American firms that received EXIM support. Our results cast doubt on the ubiquitously positive claims made by the Bank and its supporters, yet also provide policy lessons for countries that are either in the inception stages of establishing their own ECAs or are now placing greater importance on ECA financing in encouraging domestic exports.
    Keywords: Trade credits; EXIM; export competition; value chain
    Date: 2016
  26. By: Mesa Callejas, Ramón Javier; Osorio Agudelo, Jair Albeiro; Castaño Rios, Carlos Eduardo
    Abstract: The phenomenon of football is a sport that captivates masses throughout the world, it is definitely a whole passion, where love for a shirt or colors of a football team, in many cases, exceed the rationality of financial management it is clear from his administration. Evidence on financial and accounting results of the top leagues in Europe in recent years, characterized by negative imbalances and high debt levels, seem to prove the above hypothesis. In this paper, some reflections on the relationship between football and economy within the framework of business management from a financial perspective and business management are presented. It is concluded that it is imperative to professionalize the financial management of football clubs from strategies associated with a proper assessment of sports projects, the distribution of resources in times of crisis and financial planning in terms of financial balance El fenómeno del fútbol es una actividad deportiva que cautiva masas a lo largo y ancho del planeta, es definitivamente toda una pasión, donde el amor por una camiseta o los colores de un equipo de futbol, en muchos casos, superan la racionalidad del manejo financiero que se desprende de su administración. La evidencia sobre los resultados financieros y contables de las principales ligas en Europa en los últimos años, caracterizados por los desequilibrios negativos y los altos volúmenes de endeudamiento, parecen comprobar la hipótesis anterior. En este trabajo, se presentan algunas reflexiones sobre la relación entre el fútbol y la economía, en el marco de la gestión empresarial desde la perspectiva financiera y de gestión de negocio. Se concluye que es imperante profesionalizar la gestión financiera de los clubes de fútbol a partir de estrategias asociadas con una adecuada valoración de los proyectos deportivos, la distribución de recursos en épocas de crisis y la planeación financiera en términos del equilibrio financiero.
    Keywords: clubes de fútbol, economía del deporte, economía del futbol, gestión financiera de clubes de futbol
    JEL: B4 E01 L83
    Date: 2015–05–01
  27. By: Tsukhlo Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This section is prepared using the data of monthly business surveys conducted by the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (IEP) among managers of industrial enterprises since September 1992. The surveys are conducted on the basis of the European harmonized methodology and encompass the entire territory of the Russian Federation. The size of the panel is around 1,000 enterprises, which employ over 13% of the total number of employed in industry. The panel is biased towards large enterprises in each of the selected branches. The rate of response to questionnaires ranges from 70% to 75%. The business survey questionnaire contains quite a small number of questions (not more than 15-20). They are of qualitative rather than quantitative nature. The simple formulation of questions and answers allows the respondents to fill in the forms quickly and without consulting any documentation. It is essential that the respondent at each enterprise is an executive of the highest level possible who is fully aware of the situation at the enterprise and is directly involved in its management
    Keywords: Russian economy, industry, recession
    JEL: C53 E37 L21 L52
    Date: 2016
  28. By: Karsten Staehr; Robert Vermeulen
    Abstract: This paper considers the short-term effects of competitiveness shocks on macroeconomic performance in the euro area. Vector autoregressive models are estimated on quarterly data from 1995 to 2013 for individual countries and the whole euro area. The results show that competitiveness shocks help to explain subsequent GDP developments in most countries but have little explanatory power for the current account balance and domestic credit. These results apply for all of the competitiveness measures considered, but a non-traditional competitiveness measure accounting for quality differences fares better in some cases. The effects of the competitiveness measures vary substantially across the countries in the euro area, which likely reflects their different economic structures and institutions. This heterogeneity suggests that policy measures seeking to improve competitiveness may have very different effects on economic performance and financial stability in different countries.
    Keywords: Competitiveness; macroeconomic variables; transmission; euro area
    JEL: E32 E61 F32
    Date: 2016–07
  29. By: Dezhina Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2015, the budget allocations to civilian research and development (R&D) were cut by approximately 8% at current prices by comparison with the targets set in the basic version of the Law on the 2015 Federal Budget and 2016–2017 Budget Plan. The reduction in the amount of budget funding is of critical importance for the science sector, because the federal budget has remained the principal source of funding for research and development, covering about 70% of the aggregate expenditures on R&D.
    Keywords: Russian economy, R&D, science, technology
    JEL: I21 I22 I23 I24 I25
    Date: 2016
  30. By: Barbara Ermini (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali); Luca Papi (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali, MoFiR); Francesca Scaturro (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali)
    Abstract: The paper examines the determinants of over-education among Italian Ph.D graduates drawn from the four cohorts 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010 surveyed by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). We attempt to disentangle the differentiated effects of the economic crisis and the university reform that recently hit the Italian labour market. We examine over-education through the definitions of over-skilling, over-qualification and a combination of the two. The results show that socio-demographic variables do not exert a relevant influence on over-education. Conversely, job attributes such as working in academia or carrying out R&D activities reduce the likelihood of incurring into over-education. Instead, accessing the job via informal channels or working as self-employed increase the risk of over-education, with a stronger effect during the recession. Among Ph.D related features, visiting abroad is always a driver to overcome any kind of job mismatch. Generally, benefiting from financial support is a propelling factor to reduce over-education; it is effective in reducing qualification mismatch especially during the downturn. In the light of the above findings, some policy advices are proposed.
    Keywords: over-education, over-skilling, over-qualification, Ph.D graduates, crisis
    JEL: C2 I2 I23 J24
    Date: 2016–07
  31. By: Martin T. Bohl; Christian Gross; Waldemar Souza
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of the Brazilian futures exchange, BM&F Bovespa, in the global price formation process of Arabica coffee. Using a multivariate GARCH model we find bi-directional information transmission in terms of spillover effects between the BM&F Bovespa futures contract for Arabica coffee and the Coffee C' futures contract traded at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York. Moreover, our empirical results indicate that the influence of the BM&F Bovespa futures market on the ICE futures market increased during the 2010-2012 boom in co ee prices, suggesting a greater role of local information for volatility dynamics during this period. We also show that local Brazilian spot markets incorporate information from both the domestic and the foreign futures market. Taken together, our findings highlight the great relevance of the BM&F Bovespa futures market in the global price formation process of Arabica coffee.
    Keywords: Commodity futures markets, cross-border volatility transmission, emerging futures exchanges, price spikes in commodity markets
    JEL: G12 G13 G14 G15 Q02
    Date: 2016–07
  32. By: Aghion, Philippe; Dechezleprêtre, Antoine; Hemous, David; Martin, Ralf; Van Reenen, John
    Abstract: Can directed technical change be used to combat climate change? We construct new firm-level panel data on auto industry innovation distinguishing between "dirty" (internal combustion engine) and "clean" (e.g. electric and hybrid) patents across 80 countries over several decades. We show that firms tend to innovate relatively more in clean technologies when they face higher tax-inclusive fuel prices. Furthermore, there is path dependence in the type of innovation both from aggregate spillovers and from the firm's own innovation history. Using our model we simulate the increases in carbon taxes needed to allow clean to overtake dirty technologies.
    Date: 2016
  33. By: Sabine D'Costa; Enrique Garcilazo; Joaquim Oliveira Martins
    Abstract: This paper aims to understand the impact of nation-wide structural policies on the productivity growth of OECD regions. In particular we explore how this impact varies with the productivity gap of regions with their country's frontier region. We use a policy-augmented growth model that allows us to estimate the effects of macroeconomic and structural policies on regional productivity growth. We estimate our model with an unbalanced panel dataset consisting of 265 regions from 24 OECD countries covering the period 1997 to 2007. We find that the effects on regional productivity growth are differentiated with respect to the regional productivity gap: Relaxing employment protection legislation on temporary contracts or lowering barriers to trade and investment would enhance productivity growth in lagging regions, whereas reducing the amount of state control has the opposite effect on lagging regions. Macroeconomic factors also influence regional performance: trade openness and the government debt to GDP ratio are more beneficial to lagging regions. These results reveal that average relationships between nation-wide policies and the productivity of regions can hide strong differentiated effects according to the distance to the country frontier. This carries important policy implications, mainly that these region-specific effects should be taken into account in the policy design.
    Keywords: structural reforms, regional growth, lagging regions
    JEL: R11 R58 O18
    Date: 2016–07
  34. By: Cicatiello, Lorenzo; De Simone, Elina; Gaeta, Giuseppe Lucio
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature on the determinants of fiscal transparency by empirically identifying its political determinants in democratic countries. Our static and dynamic panel data analysis highlights that government control over parliaments and political competition influence the level of fiscal transparency, while the effect of government ideology is only partially confirmed. These results extend the existing literature which is based on cross-country analyses.
    Keywords: Fiscal transparency; panel data; political determinants
    JEL: H6 P5
    Date: 2016
  35. By: Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Jing Chen (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University)
    Abstract: The year 2015 marks the West Virginia University (WVU) Regional Research Institute’s (RRI) 50th year anniversary and this article conducts a case study to explore the scholarly collaborations by social network analysis (SNA) in the RRI research community since its inception in 1965. We have discovered that the evolving endogenous and exogenous co-authorship networks grow and gain complexity as the Institute develops and incorporates more researchers. However, this case study also uncovers and verifies several social network analysis (SNA) limitations on research pattern analysis.
    Keywords: Co-authorship, bibliometrics, social network analysis, Regional Research Institute
    JEL: R00 O18 A12 B31
    Date: 2016–07
  36. By: Kohei Shintani (Bank of Japan); Yoshiyuki Kurachi (Bank of Japan); Shinichi Nishioka (Bank of Japan); Takashi Okamoto (Bank of Japan)
    Abstract: Although the underlying trend in consumer prices has been rising steadily in recent years, administered prices in Japan have stayed more or less flat. In contrast, administered prices in Europe and the United States have consistently moved upward. Differences in the institutional systems of administered prices can be pointed out as one reason for this sharp contrast. Since the 1980s, European countries and the United States have taken measures to (i) enhance management discipline of publicly owned businesses, and (ii) create independent regulatory commissions and enhance independence from the government mainly in terms of price-setting. As a result, administered prices have been set in accordance with labor and investment costs. In the case of Japan, on the other hand, the government has been heavily and directly involved in the price-setting process, and government subsidies have been granted to many public enterprises. This mechanism may act to affect administered prices in our country.
    Date: 2016–07–27
  37. By: Tim De Stefano; Richard Kneller; Jonathan Timmis
    Abstract: A recent literature has begun to recognise that ICT is heterogeneous and the effects from improving communication are distinct from those that improve the storage and processing of information. In this paper we use the arrival of a new communication technology, ADSL broadband internet, to study the effects of communication ICT on firm performance. To do so free from endogeneity bias, we construct instruments using the infrastructure underlying broadband internet - the pre-existing telephone network. We show that, after placing various restrictions on the sample, instruments based on the timing of ADSL broadband enablement and the cable distance to the local telephone exchange satisfy the conditions for instrument relevancy and validity for some types of ICT. We find in turn, that communication-ICT causally affects firm size (captured by either sales or employment) but not productivity.
    Keywords: ICT, firms, instrumental variable
    Date: 2016
  38. By: Bryan Engelhardt (College of Business, University of Wisconsin - Oshkosh); Zachary Fernandes (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
    Abstract: To check for the impartiality of the United States judicial system, we investigate whether judicial decisions are leaked prior to their public release. Utilizing an event study methodology, we test for leaked information by analyzing the effect of patent infringement verdicts on the stock prices of the firms involved before and after the public release of the verdict. We find evidence that at least some of the decisions are leaked prior to their public release.
    Keywords: event study, patent infringement, judicial leakage, insider trading, trial court, appellate court
    JEL: G14 K41
    Date: 2016–07
  39. By: Rachel Ngai (london school of economics); Timo Boppart (IIES, Stockholm University)
    Abstract: This paper develops a growth model that explains the U.S. facts of rising aggregate leisure and increasing leisure inequality. Households derive utility from three sources: market produced goods, home produced goods and leisure. A key assumption is that leisure is a production activity requiring time and capital. Households allocate time and capital into each production activity. The dynamics are driven by activity-specific TFP growth and a spread in the distribution of household-specific market efficiencies. They combine to explain the time series and cross-sectional evolutions whilst the economy remains on its aggregate balance growth path.
    Date: 2016
  40. By: Mosher, James F JD
    Keywords: Medicine and Health Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2016–07–01
  41. By: Adam Zawadowski (Central European University); Peter Kondor (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: We develop a model of capital reallocation to analyze whether the presence of more arbitrageurs improves capital allocation and welfare. While trades can become crowded due to imperfect information and externalities, arbitrageurs can devote resources to flexibly learn about the number of earlier entrants. Above a threshold, increasing the number of arbitrageurs does not affect capital allocation: whether there is eventually too little or too much capital allocated to the trade is solely determined by the parameters of the market. The flexibility in the learning technology is key to this insight. However, the presence of more arbitrageurs decreases welfare, as they use more aggregate resources to learn about each others' position. When both sophisticated and unsophisticated arbitrageurs are present, increasing the share of sophisticated arbitrageurs might be welfare reducing.
    Date: 2016
  42. By: Inés Macho-Stadler; David Pérez-Castrillo; David Wettstein
    Abstract: We propose the average approach,where the worth of a coalition is a weighted average of its worth for di/erent partitions of the playersset, as a unifying method to extend values for characteristic function form games. Our method allows us to extend the equal division value, the equal surplus value, the consensus value, the -egalitarian Shapley value, and the least-square family. For each of the rst three extensions, we also provide an axiomatic characterization of a particular value for partition function form games. And for each of the last two extensions, we nd a family of values that satisfy the properties.
    Keywords: Externalities, sharing the surplus, average approach
    JEL: D62 C71
    Date: 2016–07
  43. By: Ali, Mazhar
    Abstract: This study investigates advertising effectiveness of creative TV advertisements (Ads) for high involvement products. The majority of such studies have been conducted using low involvement products. There is a need to conduct a research to find out the effectiveness of creative advertisements for high involvement products.This study will fill this knowledge gap. This study aimed at measuring the impact of creativity in Ads on Attitude toward Advertisement,Unaided Recall and Purchase intention. It involved 94 university students in an experimental research. Paired sample t-test was used for evaluating creative and control Ads .Data analysis reveals that creative Ads are better than control Ads in generating favorable attitude toward ad and high Ad recall but equally ineffective in persuading customers to buy. Binary logistic regression showed small role of creativity in causing high Ad recall while multiple regression analysis confirmed the supremacy of creative Ads for forming a favorable attitude toward Ad.
    Keywords: Creativity, advertising effectiveness, purchase intention, Aided Recall, Un-aided Recall, Product involvement.
    JEL: M37 M39
    Date: 2016–01
  44. By: Rachelle Belinga (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Blanche Segrestin (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper presents an exploratory study on proxy voting policies as a lever for social shareholder engagement (SSE). It proposes an analysis framework for an ongoing empirical research and produces its first results of investigation. Although SSE is a growing phenomenon, it needs more concrete means of action. If the influence of shareholder activists is frequently denounced for its negative impact on corporations, which concrete means shareholders who want CSR to benefit from their leverage have at their disposal? While in Europe shareholder proposals are limited, proxy voting policies appear as a significant element which has been insufficiently explored in the SSE literature. Starting with a first sample of proxy voting policies, we examine the potential use of voting policies by engaged shareholders. Our analysis shows limited differentiation and we search for some first hypotheses that could lead and support further research.
    Keywords: proxy voting policies,proxy voting,shareholder engagement,corporate governance,corporate social responsibility
    Date: 2016–06–01
  45. By: Alesina, Alberto Francesco; Giuliano, Paola
    Abstract: A growing body of empirical work measuring different types of cultural traits has shown that culture matters for a variety of economic outcomes. This paper focuses on one specific aspect of the relevance of culture: its relationship to institutions. We review work with a theoretical, empirical, and historical bent to assess the presence of a two-way causal effect between culture and institutions.
    Date: 2015
  46. By: Haim Shalit (BGU); Frank Hespeler
    Keywords: Mean-Gini portfolios, numerical optimization, stochastic dominance portfolios, 3D efficient frontier
    Date: 2016
  47. By: Alvarez, Francisco; André, Francisco J.; Mazón, Cristina
    Abstract: We study the efficiency of the uniform auction as an allocation mechanism for emission permits among polluting firms. In our model, firms have private information about their abatement costs, which differ across firms and across units, and bidders' demands are linear. We show that there is a continuum of interior Bayesian-Nash equilibria, and only one is effcient, minimizing abatement costs. We find that the existence of many bidders is not a sufficient condition to guarantee an efficient equilibrium in the uniform auction. Additionally, bidders' types have to be uncorrelated.
    Keywords: Emission permits, Uniform auction, Efficiency, Incomplete information Simultaneous games
    JEL: D44 Q58
    Date: 2016–07–26
  48. By: Davis, Brent
    Abstract: Winning elections is essentially a matter of translating the attitudes of voters into votes. Although this proposition may sound simple, the reality is considerably more challenging. Despite vast scholarship over many years we know very little, if anything, about the efficiency with which the inputs (voter attitudes) to the political process are converted into outputs (vote support). Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) provides a statistical method to measure the efficiency with which inputs are converted into outputs. The results of the DEA analysis and associated modelling find marked differences in the political efficiency of recent Australian political leaders.
    Keywords: campaigns; election; politimetric modelling; Data Envelopment Analysis; voter behaviour; political marketing; Australian elections
    JEL: C1 C13 C5 C51 C53 C54 H1 H11 K0
    Date: 2016–08
  49. By: Rajeev Darolia (University of Missouri); Cory Koedel (University of Missouri)
    Abstract: We use statewide administrative data from Missouri to examine the role of high schools in explaining students’ initial college and major placements at 4-year public universities. Conditional on a student’s own academic preparation, the high school attended predicts the rigor of the initial university, and within the university, the rigor of the initial major. We identify a relatively sparse set of school characteristics – and characteristics of schools’ local communities – that account for much of the explanatory power of high schools. Complementing previous studies, we show that students from low-SES high schools enroll in less rigorous universities than their similarly-qualified peers from high-SES high schools. Students from low-SES schools also enroll in less rigorous majors within universities. Black-white gaps in the rigor of the initial college and major can be explained entirely by students’ own pre-entry academic preparation and a small number of high school and neighborhood characteristics.
    Keywords: college sorting, major sorting, university sorting, college major choice, STEM degrees
    JEL: I23 I24 J24
    Date: 2016–07
  50. By: Alexander Hijzen; Pedro S. Martins
    Abstract: In many countries, notably across Europe, collective bargaining coverage is enhanced by government-issued extensions that widen the reach of collective agreements beyond their signatory parties to all firms and workers in the same sector. This paper analyses the causal impact of such extensions on employment using a natural experiment in Portugal: the immediate suspension by the government that took office in 21 June 2011 of the (until then) nearly automatic extensions. The combination of this suspension and the time needed for processing the extension applications resulted in a sharp and unanticipated decline in the extension probability of agreements signed several months earlier, around 1 March 2011. Our results, based on a regression discontinuity design and matched employer-employee-agreement panel data, suggest that extensions had a negative impact on employment growth. Moreover, the effects tend to be concentrated amongst non-affiliated firms. The lack of representativeness of employer associations is a potentially important factor behind the adverse effect of extensions. Another is the role of retro-activity in combination with the administrative delay in processing extensions. This is particularly relevant in the context of a recession.
    Keywords: collective bargaining, industrial relations, employer associations, wage setting, employment
    JEL: J52 J58 J21
    Date: 2016–07
  51. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: In partnership with the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) held the forum on September at Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The forum featured research papers on regional economic outlook, global value chains, regional economic cooperation, transitioning from middleincome status, social inclusion, and capacity building for think tanks. This publication documents the dynamic exchange of ideas and information during the day event. The ADBAsian Think Tank Development Forum is an annual knowledge sharing event under the ADB AsianThinkb Tans Network (ATTN), established by ADB and the Asian think tanks in . The major objective of the network is to promote knowledge sharing and capacity building of think tanks, particularly those which are involved in supporting governments in formulating and implementing mediumor longterm development plans and in responding to emerging issues. For more information about ATTN, please visit its website: http://www/
    Keywords: economic outlook, global value chains, regional economic cooperation, social inclusion, and capacity building
    Date: 2016–04
  52. By: Berliant, Marcus; Watanabe, Hiroki
    Abstract: Zipf’s law is one of the best-known empirical regularities in urban economics. There is extensive research on the subject, where each city is treated symmetrically in terms of the cost of transactions with other cities. Recent developments in network theory facilitate the examination of an asymmetric transport network. In a scale-free network, the chance of observing extremes in network connections becomes higher than the Gaussian distribution predicts and therefore it explains the emergence of large clusters. The city-size distribution shares the same pattern. This paper decodes how accessibility of a city to other cities on the transportation network can boost its local economy and explains the city-size distribution as a result of its underlying transportation network structure. Finally, we discuss the endogenous evolution of transport networks.
    Keywords: Zipf’s law; city-size distribution; scale-free network
    JEL: L14 R12 R40
    Date: 2016–07–30
  53. By: Mi, Zhifu; Zhang, Yunkun; Dabo Guan; Shan, Yuli; Zhu Liu; Cong, Ronggang; Yuan, Xiao-Chen; Wei, Yi-Ming
  54. By: Kawaguchi, Daiji (University of Tokyo); Kondo, Ayako (University of Tokyo); Saito, Keiji
    Abstract: Based on a unique time-use survey of academic researchers in Japan, this study finds that research time decreases over the life cycle. The decrease in total hours worked and the increase in time spent on administrative tasks explain the decrease in research time. We also show that the decrease of research time partly explains why the research output of older researchers' decreases. The results suggest that proper incentives and job designs for senior researchers may increase their research output.
    Keywords: researchers' time use, research output, academic researchers, academic administration, education, multi-tasking
    JEL: J22 J24 J44
    Date: 2016–07
  55. By: Jiyoung Kim; Satoshi Nakano; Kazuhiko Nishimura
    Abstract: Sector-wise productivity growths are measured, along with the sectoral elasticity of substitutions, under the multi-factor CES framework, by regressing the growths of factor-wise cost shares against the growths of relative factor prices. We use linked input-output tables for Japan and Korea as the data source for factor price and cost shares in two timely distant states. We then construct a multi-sectoral general equilibrium model using the system of estimated CES unit cost functions, and evaluate the economy-wide propagation of an exogenous productivity gain, in terms of welfare. Further, we examine the differences between models based on a priori elasticities such as Leontief and Cobb-Douglas.
    Date: 2016–08
  56. By: Robert F. Engle; Olivier Ledoit; Michael Wolf
    Abstract: Second moments of asset returns are important for risk management and portfolio selection. The problem of estimating second moments can be approached from two angles: time series and the cross-section. In time series, the key is to account for conditional heteroskedasticity; a favored model is Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC), derived from the ARCH/GARCH family started by Engle (1982). In the cross-section, the key is to correct in-sample biases of sample covariance matrix eigenvalues; a favored model is nonlinear shrinkage, derived from Random Matrix Theory (RMT). The present paper aims to marry these two strands of literature in order to deliver improved estimation of large dynamic covariance matrices.
    Keywords: Composite likelihood, dynamic conditional correlations, GARCH, Markowitz portfolio selection, nonlinear shrinkage.
    JEL: C13 C58 G11
    Date: 2016–07
  57. By: Xiaochuan Huang (DT Capital Management Co., Ltd.); Takehito Masuda (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University); Yoshitaka Okano (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology); Tatsuyoshi Saijo (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology)
    Abstract: We experimentally test a two-stage mechanism called the stay-leave mechanism to achieve cooperation in n-plyer prisoner's dilemma situations. Under this mechanism, each cooperator has the chance to revise his choice when players' choices are not unanimous. We say a player is selfish if he eliminates dominated choices in each stage. If all participants of the stay-leave mechanism are selfish, for any value of public good benefit that arises, the unique equilibrium is unanimous cooperation. The average cooperation rate in the stay-leave mechanism experiment averaged 86.6% across 15 periods, with an upward trend, increasing to 96.0% after period 5. By examining earlier period data, we detected that selfish and conditionally cooperative subjects coexist at a proportion of approximately 3:1. Finally, we extended our model to incorporate a mixture of the observed two types and misbeliefs about others' types. Paradoxically, unanimous cooperation is less likely to occur as the number of conditionally cooperative players increase. The model also partially explains the observed upward trend in the cooperation rate in the stay-leave mechanism sessions.
    Keywords: social dilemma; experiment; conditional cooperator; behavioral heterogeneity
    JEL: C72 C72 D74 H41 P43
    Date: 2016–07
  58. By: Russell Pittman (Antitrust Division, U.S. Department of Justice)
    Abstract: Voting trust arrangements have a long history at both the Interstate Commerce Commission and the Surface Transportation Board as devices to protect the incentives of acquiring firms and maintain the independence of acquiring and target firms during the pendency of regulatory investigation of the merger proposal
    Date: 2016–07
  59. By: Jens K. Perret (European Institute for International Economic Relations at the University of Wuppertal)
    Abstract: The present study picks up on the aspect of knowledge generation - a key part of every national innovation system - in the context of the USA and the Russian Federation. Following Fritsch and Slavtchev (2006) a knowledge production function can be used to account for the efficiency of an innovation systems. In detail this study provides a quantile regression estimation of the knowledge production function to account for a possible non-linear relationship between knowledge inputs and knowledge output. Using regional data for researchers, expenditures on R\& D and patent grants for the USA and the Russian Federation - motivated by the results of a kernel density estimation and transition matrices - a quantile regression is performed for a basic knowledge production function design; for Russia as well for an extended design. The results show that in both countries there exist groups of regions with smaller sized research systems that report significantly different dynamics and thus knowledge production functions than regions with larger sized research systems.
    Keywords: Russian Federation, USA, Innovation System, Knowledge Production Function, Knowledge Generation, Quantile Regression, Regional Economics
    JEL: P25 O31 O57
    Date: 2016–07
  60. By: Brandt, Loren (University of Toronto); Ma, Debin (London School of Economics); Rawski, Thomas (University of Pittsburgh)
    Abstract: We see industrialization in China the last 150 years as an ongoing process through which firms acquired and deepened manufacturing capabilities. Two factors have been consistently important to this process: openness to the international economy and domestic market liberalization. Openness and market liberalization are usually complementary: One without the other can seriously limit benefits. For a latecomer like China, modern industry initially finds its most success in more labor-intensive products that require only modest capabilities. Gradual upgrading entails the shift into more skilled-labor and capital-intensive products and processes. China's experience shows that government can both support and obstruct this process. Our review of long-term data shows that i) China's industrial growth rate has consistently exceeded that of Japan, India and Russia/USSR not just in recent decades but throughout most of the 20th century; ii) China's shift from textiles and other light industry toward defense-related industries began before rather than after 1949, as did the geographic spread of industry beyond the initial centers in the Lower Yangzi and the Northeast (formerly Manchuria) regions; iii) the state sector has consistently been a brake on industrial upgrading, highlighting the significance of current reform initiatives in determining China's future industrial path.
    Keywords: China, industrial development, structural change
    JEL: O N
    Date: 2016–07
  61. By: Banegas, Ayelen
    Abstract: This paper tests for predictability of output growth in a panel of 22 emerging market economies. We use pooled panel data methods that control for endogeneity and persistence in the predictor variables to test the predictive power of a large set of financial aggregates. Results show that stock returns, the term spread, default spreads and portfolio investment flows help predict output growth in emerging markets. We also find evidence that suggests that global aggregates such as the performance of commodity markets, a cross-sectional firm size factor, and returns on the market portfolio contain information about the future state of the economy. We benchmark our results against those from the U.S. and find that there are differences in the ability of financial markets in predicting economic growth. Our results generalize to emerging markets previous findings in the empirical macro-finance literature on the linkages between financial market performance and the real economy.
    Keywords: Output growth predictability ; Emerging markets ; Leading indicators ; Financial variables
    JEL: E44 G15
    Date: 2016–07
  62. By: Fabrice Rousseau (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, Maynooth University.); Hervé Boco (University of Toulouse Toulouse Business School ISAE); Laurent Germain (Workplace-Name:University of Toulouse Toulouse Business School ISAE)
    Abstract: We develop a model in which informed overconfident market participants and informed rational speculators trade against trend-chasers. In this model positive feedback traders act as Computer Based Trading (CBT) and lead to positive feedback loops. In line with empirical findings we find a positive relationship between the volatility of prices and the size of the price reversal. The presence of positive feedback traders leads to a higher degree of trading activity by both types of informed traders. Overconfidence can lead to less price volatility and more efficient prices. Moreover, overconfident traders may be better off than their rational counterparts.
    Keywords: Overconfidence, Positive feedback trading, Bubbles, Excess volatility, Market efficiency, Computer Based Trading, Algorithmic Trading.
    JEL: D43 D82 G14 G24
    Date: 2016
  63. By: Dudley, William (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
    Abstract: Remarks at Bank Indonesia–Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint International Seminar, Bali Indonesia.
    Keywords: credit availability; measurement problem; output growth; price inflation; inflation expectations; asset purchases
    Date: 2016–07–31
  64. By: Kastner, Lisa
    Abstract: Dodd-Frank, the US financial reform law passed in response to the 2008 financial crisis, established the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), a new federal regulator with the sole responsibility of protecting consumers from unfair, deceptive, or abusive practices. This decision marked the end of a highly politicized reform debate in the US Congress, involving lobbying from business associations and civil society groups, in which proponents of the new bureau would normally have been considered to be much weaker than its opponents. Paradoxically, an emerging civil society coalition successfully lobbied decision-makers and countered industry attempts to prevent industry capture. What explains the fact that rather weak and peripheral actors prevailed over more resourceful and dominant actors? The goal of this study is to examine and challenge questions of regulatory capture by concentrated industry interests in the reform debates in response to the credit crisis which originated in the US in 2007. The analysis suggests that for weak actors to prevail in policy conflicts over established, resource-rich opponents, they must undertake broad coalition-building among themselves and with influential elite allies outside and inside of Congress who share the same policy goals.
    Keywords: financial crisis,financial regulation,consumer protection,interest groups,lobbying
    Date: 2016
  65. By: Laura Sosinsky; Karen Ruprecht; Diane Horm; Kerry Kriener-Althen; Cheri Vogel; Tamara Halle
    Abstract: This review of research on relationship-based care practices outlines considerations for implementing these practices in Early Head Start and childcare centers serving infants and toddlers.
    Keywords: relationship-based, care, practice, infant, toddler, practice, policy, primary caregiving, federal, state, policies, early head start, licensing, QRIS, standards
    JEL: I
  66. By: Koralova, Petya
    Abstract: River Danube is an international inland waterway that is part of the Rhine – Danube Core Network Corridor. The favorable geographic location of Slovakia and Bulgaria, as well as their outlet on the River Danube, are key factors for the insurance of better transport and trade relations among West of Europe and Middle East. In this regard, the main objective of the report is to reveal the perspectives for development of the trade relations between both countries via inland waterway transport. For that purpose, a review of the status quo of Bulgarian and Slovak ports is made, as well as an analysis of the cargo turnover, export, import and balances of trades of the countries. As a conclusion, the results of the current research are summarized.
    Keywords: trade relations, inland waterway transport, cargo turnover
    JEL: F16
    Date: 2015–12–03
  67. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: This report summarizes the accomplishments of the Southeast Asia Department (SERD) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in knowledge management from 2012 to mid-2015 . It discusses how SERD has managed knowledge to create value for ADB’s developing member countries and other clients by adhering to the operations cycle as the focus of knowledge management, as well as by innovating measures to better respond to client knowledge needs including those that materialize outside the operations cycle. Looking ahead, it proposes strengthening programming for knowledge products and services, and boosting budgetary resources, to facilitate greater uptake and utilization of ADB knowledge products and services.
    Keywords: adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, southeast asia, adb knowledge solutions, knowledge management, adb knowledge management report, knowledge products and services, KPS, SERD accomplishments, SERD, adb developing member countries, DMCs
    Date: 2016–06
  68. By: Dupas, Pascaline; Karlan, Dean S.; Robinson, Jonathan; Ubfal, Diego
    Abstract: We experimentally test the impact of expanding access to basic bank accounts in Uganda, Malawi, and Chile. Over two years, 17%, 10%, and 3% of treatment individuals made five or more deposits, respectively. Average monthly deposits for them were at the 79th, 91st, and 96th percentiles of baseline savings. Survey data show no clearly discernible intention-to-treat effects on savings or any downstream outcomes. This suggests that policies merely focused on expanding access to basic accounts are unlikely to improve welfare noticeably since impacts, even if present, are likely small and diverse.
    Keywords: financial access; savings; banking; micro-finance; field experiment; multicountry; Uganda; Malawi; Chile
    JEL: C93 D14 G21 O12 O16
    Date: 2016–07
  69. By: Wouter Zwysen (University of Essex); Simonetta Longhi (University of Essex)
    Abstract: We compare employment and earnings of British graduates belonging to ethnic minorities to those of white British six months and three and a half years after graduation. Six months after graduation all ethnic minority graduates are less likely than whites to be employed but those who have a job earn similarly or more than whites. University choice, parental background and area characteristics account for a large part of the ethnic differences in earnings but do not explain ethnic differences in employment. Three and a half years after graduation the ethnic advantages in earnings disappear while employment penalties reduce. Both employment probability and earnings increase over the career in a similar way for whites and minorities, with only few exceptions.
    Keywords: School-to-work transitions; graduates; ethnic gaps; UK; longitudinal analysis
    JEL: I24 J15 R23
    Date: 2016–07
  70. By: Peng, Lin; Roell, Ailsa; Tang, Hongfei
    Abstract: We examine, both theoretically and empirically, the determinants and performance impact of three measures of CEO incentives: pay-performance elasticity (PPE), semi-elasticity (PPSE), and sensitivity (PPS). Larger, more R&D intensive, and low-idiosyncratic risk firms have higher PPE and PPSE, resolving puzzling prior empirical findings based on PPS. Performance is generally hump-shaped in PPE and PPSE; shortfalls relative to predicted levels appear particularly detrimental to firm performance, suggesting that the average firm's incentives are at the low end of the optimal range. Overall, the results obtained with the PPE and PPSE measures accord better with economic intuition than those obtained using PPS.
    Keywords: Executive compensation; pay-for-performance elasticity
    JEL: G32 G34
    Date: 2016–07
  71. By: Mark Rosenzweig (Economic Growth Center,Yale University); Christopher Udry (Economic Growth Center, Yale University)
    Abstract: We examine the generalizability of internally valid estimates of causal effects in a fixed population over time when that population is subject to aggregate shocks. This temporal external validity is shown to depend upon the distribution of the aggregate shocks and the interaction between these shocks and the casual effects. We show that returns to investment in agriculture, small and medium enterprises and human capital differ significantly from year to year. We also show how returns to investments interact with specific aggregate shocks, and estimate the parameters of the distributions of these shocks. We show how to use these estimates to appropriately widen estimated confidence intervals to account for aggregate shocks.
    Keywords: returns to investment, heterogeneity, treatment effect
    JEL: C93 O1 O13 O14 O15
    Date: 2016–07
  72. By: Daniel Rais
    Abstract: SECO Working Paper 9/2016
    Date: 2016–07–27
  73. By: Nobuyuki Hanaki (Université Côte d'Azur; GREDEG CNRS; Skema Business School; IUF); Alan Kirman (CAMS-EHESS; Aix Marseille University); Paul Pezanis-Christou (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)
    Abstract: The literature on learning in unknown environments emphasises reinforcing on actions which produce positive results. But, in some cases, success requires shifting from a currently successful actions to others. We examine, experimentally and theoretically in a very simple framework, how individuals initially learn by exploiting information from the pay-offs of actions taken but also from exploring new actions. We analyse if and how they learn that pay-offs are inter-temporally dependent. We then ran the same experiments but where individuals could observe the actions taken or the pay-offs obtained by others or both. Such observations improved pay-offs if one of the pair had learned to obtain the maximum pay-off.
    Keywords: Multi-armed bandit, reinforcement learning, eureka moment, pay-off patterns, observational learning
    JEL: D81 D83
    Date: 2016–08
  74. By: Rosario Crino (Catholic University of Milan); Gino Gancia (CREI); Alessandra Bonfiglioli (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
    Abstract: We study how financial frictions affect firm-level heterogeneity and trade in a model where productivity differences across monopolistically competitive firms are endogenous and depend on investment decisions at the entry stage. By increasing entry costs, financial frictions reduce the exit cutoff thereby lowering the value of investing in bigger projects with more dispersed outcomes. Hence, credit frictions make firms more homogeneous and hinder the volume of exports both along the intensive and the extensive margin. Export opportunities, instead, shift expected profits to the tail and increase the value of technological heterogeneity. We test these predictions using comparable measures of sale dispersion within 365 manufacturing industries in 119 countries, built from highly disaggregated US import data. Consistent with the model, financial development increases sale dispersion, especially in more financially vulnerable industries; sale dispersion is also increasing in measures of comparative advantage. These results are quantitatively important for explaining the effect of financial development and factor endowments on export sales.
    Date: 2016
  75. By: Rocha, Vera (Copenhagen Business School); van Praag, Mirjam C. (Copenhagen Business School)
    Abstract: Both organizational and sociological approaches in entrepreneurship research highlight the importance of social context in shaping individual preferences for entrepreneurship. An influential contextual factor that has not been studied in entrepreneurship research is one's boss at work. Do entrepreneurial bosses contribute to their employees' decisions to become entrepreneurs themselves? Using Danish register data of newly founded firms and their entrepreneurs and employees between 2003 and 2012, and employing methods that allow causal inferences, we show that entrepreneurial bosses indeed affect their employees' future entrepreneurship choices, especially if both boss and employee are female. We investigate two alternative underlying mechanisms that may shape the (female) boss' influence on (female) workers' entrepreneurship decisions. Our results consistently suggest that entrepreneurial bosses may act as role models for the entrepreneurship activities of their employees, especially between pairs of female bosses and female employees. We do not find any evidence on female bosses acting as "queen bees" at the workplace. Female entrepreneurial bosses may, thus, act as a lever to reducing the gender gaps in entrepreneurship rates.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship, role models, gender gaps, female leadership
    JEL: L26 J24 J16
    Date: 2016–07
  76. By: Rapoport, Hillel (Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper reviews a growing literature on migration and globalization, focusing on its relevance for developing and emerging economies. It documents the role of diaspora networks in enhancing cross-border flows of goods, capital, and knowledge, eventually contributing to efficient specialization, investment, and productivity growth in the migrants' home-countries. Particular attention is paid to the role of skilled migrants, and to information imperfections reduction as the main channel for the documented effects. Overall, the evidence suggests that migrants contribute to the integration of their home-countries into the global economy.
    Keywords: migration, globalization, trade, FDI, financial flows, knowledge diffusion, development
    JEL: F21 F22 F63 J61 O11 O15
    Date: 2016–07
  77. By: McGrattan, Ellen R. (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)
    Abstract: Foreign investment into China has surged since the 1990s and become a topic of keen interest for both scholars and the media. While China has encouraged this investment with the goal of catching up technologically, close analysis reveals that only a small share of its foreign investment comes from the United States and other nations with the technology China seeks. Instead, inward foreign direct investment flows predominantly from Hong Kong and a few Caribbean nations. Two key factors behind this: China’s tax policy toward foreign investment and its “industrial” policies to encourage development and growth. Specifically, preferential tax treatment for foreign investment leads many Chinese businesses and households to “round-trip” investments; and policies requiring joint ventures between Chinese and foreign high-tech companies—while benefiting China enormously—discourage investment by multinationals from advanced countries.
    Date: 2016–07–26
  78. By: Radygin Alexandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Apevalova Elena (RANEPA); Polezhaeva Natalia (RANEPA)
    Abstract: Bankruptcy legislation in the post-Soviet Russia was for the first time introduced in 1992 by the Executive Order of the President “On Measures for the Support and Rehabilitation of Insolvent State-Owned Enterprises (Bankrupt Debtors) and the Application of Special Proceedings to Them” No. 623 of June 14, 1992, which stipulated grounds for liquidation of enterprises, special liquidation proceedings such as reorganization, rehabilitation, direct administration of the enterprise, independent management, auctions for sale of enterprise, and other provisions concerning bankruptcy.
    Keywords: Russian economy, bankruptcy, public enterprises
    JEL: G33 G38 P2 P31
    Date: 2016
  79. By: Marcus Dillender (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research); Karen Mulligan (Middle Tennessee State University)
    Keywords: health insurance, medicare, individual market, marriage, employer benefits, ACA
    JEL: H55 J32
  80. By: Fabrizio Panebianco; Thierry Verdier; Yves Zenou
    Abstract: Consider a network of firms where a firm T is given the opportunity to innovate a product (first-generation innovation). If successful, this firm can temporarily sell this innovation to her direct neighbors because this will give her access to a larger market. However, if her direct neighbors innovate themselves on top of firm T's innovation (second-generation innovations), then firm T loses the right to sell her initial innovation to the remaining firms in the market. We analyze this game where each firm (T and her direct neighbors) has to decide at which price they want to sell their innovation. We show that the optimal price policy of each firm depends on the level of property rights protection, the position of firm T in the network, her degree and the size of the market. We then analyze the welfare implications of our model where the planner that maximizes total welfare has to decide which firm to target. We show that it depends on the level of property rights protection and on the network structure in a non-trivial way. JEL classification: D85, L1, Z13. Keywords: Networks, diffusion centrality, targets, innovation.
    Date: 2016
  81. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (East Asia Department, ADB, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (East Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: The Sanjiang Plain wetlands are among the most important wetlands in the People’s Republic of China with unique habitats, species, and ecology. There is a considerable body of literature devoted to various aspects of the Sanjiang Plain wetlands including their ecological values. Building on lessons from the Sanjiang Plain Wetlands Protection Project supported by the Asian Development Bank and the Global Environment Facility—and based on a comprehensive literature review and discussions with experts who have been directly involved in wetland conservation e?fforts—this publication synthesizes current knowledge on the Sanjiang Plain wetlands, best practices, and options for achieving sustainable wetland management.
    Keywords: wetlands, wetland management, environment, Sanjiang, Global Environment Facility
    Date: 2016–05
  82. By: Gershenson, Seth (American University); Hayes, Michael S. (Rutgers University)
    Abstract: We document externalities of the civic unrest experienced in Ferguson, MO following the police shooting of an unarmed black teenager. Difference-in-differences and synthetic control method estimates compare Ferguson-area schools to neighboring schools in the greater St. Louis area and find that the unrest led to statistically significant, arguably causal declines in students' math and reading achievement. Attendance is one mechanism through which this effect operated, as chronic absence increased by five percent in Ferguson-area schools. Impacts were concentrated in elementary schools and at the bottom of the achievement distribution and spilled over into majority black schools throughout the area.
    Keywords: civic unrest, Ferguson, achievement gaps, natural experiment, externalities
    JEL: I2 R00
    Date: 2016–07
  83. By: Ilya Prakhov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Maria Bocharova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the determinants of student mobility under the unified system of admission in Russia and evaluates the barriers which still limit educational mobility. It is argued that even under the Unified State Examination (USE) and the decreased transaction costs of applying to universities, student mobility is directed towards more developed regional educational markets and richer regions, but is still limited due to the financial constraints in the absence of the additional student support. Russia is a unique case, because it consists of regions with a high variation in socio-economic development and has local higher education markets with different levels of competition between universities. This study shows the importance of the institutional characteristics of regions in student mobility
    Keywords: educational mobility, student mobility, university choice, the Unified State Exam
    JEL: I21 I23 I24
    Date: 2016
  84. By: Yann Bramoullé; Caroline Orset
    Abstract: In their persistent fight against regulation, firms have developed specific strategies to take advantage of scientific uncertainty. They have spent large amounts of money to generate and publicize favorable scientific findings, to discredit and downplay unfavorable ones and to shape the public’s perceptions through large scale communication campaigns. We develop a new model to study the interplay between scientific uncertainty, firms’ communication and public policies. The government is benevolent but populist and maximizes social welfare as perceived by citizens. The industry can provide costly evidence that its activity is not harmful. Citizens incorrectly treat the industry’s information on par with scientific knowledge. We characterize the industry’s optimal communication policy. We find that communication effort is non-monotonous and discontinuous in scientific belief. As scientists become increasingly convinced that the industrial activity is harmful, firms first devote more and more resources to reassure people. When scientists’ beliefs reach a critical threshold, however, overcoming the scientific consensus becomes too costly and the industry stops its efforts abruptly. We then study the impacts of firms’ communication on scientific funding. Perversely, a populist government may want to support research to better allow firms to miscommunicate. Populist policies can entail significant welfare losses. Establishing an independent funding agency always reduces these losses and may lead to under- or over- investment in research with respect to the first-best.
    Keywords: Scientific Uncertainty, Populist Policies, Indirect Lobbying, Research Funding
    JEL: D12 L66 Q57 Q58
    Date: 2015–09–21
  85. By: Jorge Mario Uribe; Natalia Restrepo López
    Abstract: Dinámica del tipo de cambio, quiebre estructural e intervenciones de política en Colombia En este documento se explora el comportamiento reciente del tipo de cambio en Colombia durante el periodo 2000-2014. Se identifican algunas de las características del proceso estocástico que lo describe, haciendo énfasis en la detección de quiebres estructurales o raíces unitarias. Una vez detectados los quiebres estructurales en el tipo de cambio, se evalúa la coincidencia de estos con las intervenciones del banco central en el mercado cambiario. Los resultados señalan que el tipo de cambio puede ser descrito por una caminata aleatoria o por una serie sujeta a múltiples quiebres. En ninguno de los casos se puede atribuir la dinámica a las intervenciones del banco central
    Keywords: Caminata aleatoria, martingala, múltiples quiebres, política cambiaria Colombia, quiebre estructural
    JEL: C22 G15 G28
    Date: 2015–12–01
  86. By: Ke Wang; Chia-Yen Lee; Jieming Zhang; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: The trend toward a more competitive electricity market has led to efforts by the electric power industry to develop advanced efficiency evaluation models that adapt to market behavior operations management. The promotion of the operational performance management of the electric power industry plays an important role in China's efforts toward energy conservation, emission control and sustainable development. Traditional efficiency measures are not able to distinguish sales effects from productive efficiency and thus are not sufficient for measuring the operational performance of an electricity generation system for achieving its specific market behavior operations management goals, such as promoting electricity sales. Effectiveness measures are associated with the capacity of an electricity generation system to adjust its input resources that influence its electricity generation and, thus, the capacity to match the electricity demand. Therefore, the effectiveness measures complement the efficiency measures by capturing the sales effect in the operational performance evaluation. This study applies a newly developed data envelopment analysis-based effectiveness measurement to evaluate the operational performance of the electric power industry in China's 30 provincial regions during the 2006-2010 periods. Both the efficiency and effectiveness of the electricity generation system in each region are measured, and the associated electricity sales effects and electricity reallocation effects are captured. Based on the results of the effectiveness measures, the alternative operational performance improvement strategies and potentials in terms of input resources savings and electricity generation adjustments are proposed. The empirical results indicate that the current interregional electricity transmission and reallocation efforts are effective in China overall, and a moderate increase in electricity generation with a view to improving the effect on sales is more crucial for improving effectiveness.
    Keywords: China; Data envelopment analysis (DEA); Electricity generation system; Electricity reallocation; Electricity sales effect
    JEL: Q54 Q40
    Date: 2016–04–25
  87. By: Gurgul, Henryk; Lach, Łukasz
    Abstract: We suggest original modifications and extensions of the recently presented methodological developments in ex-post accounting framework in global value chains in order to obtain empirical results both for the analyzed group of ten CEE economies as well as at a country-and-sector-specific level. The empirical results confirm that the role of the selected CEE economies in transition in creating value added with respect to the total value added in the European Union in the GVC framework was biggest in the cases of agriculture-, wood-products-, metal-production, and travel-and-tourism-related sectors. We also found that, after two decades of transition, the measures of productivity in the examined economies in 2009 were still much lower as compared to the EU average for most of the sectors. Moreover, in the transition period, these indexes were increasing, especially after EU accession. In contrary, after two decades of transition, the measures of capital efficiency in the ten CEE economies in 2009 were comparable to the EU average for most of the sectors. Moreover, during this period, the growth rates of these indexes were, in general, positive. However, their growth rates dropped after EU accession.
    Keywords: value added; productivity; capital efficiency; CEE economies; international input-output matrices; transition
    JEL: C67 D57 F1
    Date: 2016–07–01
  88. By: Rachel Bray; Andrew Dawes; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti
    Abstract: Based on an evidence-focused literature review, this paper examines existing knowledge on raising adolescents in east and southern African countries, including Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. Country selection was based on the availability of relevant literature and data. The vast majority of studies on parenting and adolescent development is based on research from the global north. This research sought to deepen understandings of family life, care practices and support networks in the east and southern African region so as to inform policy and interventions that seek to improve adolescent-family relations and reduce risk behaviours. An evidence-informed model for understanding the ecology of adolescent-parent relationships in the cultural and economic contexts of the region is provided. In addition, a framework for exploring contextually-relevant dimensions of parenting through research and practice is offered.
    Keywords: adolescent health; adolescents; family environment; gender issues; HIV and AIDS; parent-child relationship; risk;
    Date: 2016
  89. By: Volovik Nadezhda (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2015, economic growth rates in countries, which are main trade partners of the Russian Federation, turned out to be below forecast of a year earlier. In 2015, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China[1], the China's GDP went up by 6.9% annualized, which is the minimum over the recent 25 years. Production growth in 2015 has slowed down to 6.0% and growth of the service sector up to 8.3%. In 2014, growth rates posted 7.3% and 7.8%, respectively.
    Keywords: Russian economy, foreign trade, terms of trade, regional pattern
    JEL: F10 F13 F19
    Date: 2016
  90. By: Pramod Patel; Govind Dave
    Abstract: In recent times, the Libraries are transforming from just storehouses of collection of documents to vibrant service centers containing E-resources; rapidly moving towards digital libraries, e-libraries and virtual libraries. Information available in digital form demands latest methods for its handling for both the library professionals as well as users. Hence, there is a steady need for librarians and the students to learn the new skills to cope with the situation. There are several issues pertaining to the awareness and guidance among contemporary students regarding the methods, techniques and mannerisms of using the digital or E resources. The researcher, hereby, aims to study the difficulties that the management students face in various areas like awareness of library services, availability of abstract search, prominently display of e-database in library, technical support, time factor, scattered information and issues related to power supply and backup. Key words: Library, E-resources, Information Science, Search Pattern, Awareness, Library Facilities
    Date: 2016–06
  91. By: Quynh Anh VO (University of Zurich)
    Abstract: This paper examines potential impacts of banks' leverage on their incentives to manage their liquidity. We analyse a model where banks control their liquidity risk by managing their liquid asset positions. In the basic framework, a model with a single bank, where the possibility of selling long-term assets when in need of liquidity is not taken into account, we find that the bank chooses to prudently manage its liquidity risk only when its leverage is low. In a model with multiple banks and a secondary market for long-term assets, we find that a banking system where banks are highly leveraged can be prone to liquidity crises. Our model predicts a typical pattern of liquidity crises that is consistent with what was observed during the 2007-2009 crisis.
    Keywords: Leverage, Liquidity Risk, Moral Harzard, Cash-In-The-Market Pricing
    JEL: G21 D82
  92. By: Naima Khashimova; Jamola Khusanjanova
    Abstract: This paper proposes new approach to the disclosure of the investment potential and frames new definition of the investment potential,which extends the concept of investment potential and gives finished look to this notion. In contrast to the classical theory of development, without rejecting and challenging its postulates and laws, this paper firstly introduces to the theory of the investment potential, new conceptual notion - the generation of investment potential. Key words: investment, uzbekistan, investment potential
    Date: 2016–06
  93. By: Radygin Alexandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The paper deals with the issues of public sector and privatization in Russia in 2015.
    Keywords: Russian economy, public sector, privatization
    JEL: K11 H82 L32 L33
    Date: 2016
  94. By: Emde, Simon
    Date: 2016
  95. By: Cañón Salazar Carlos Iván;Gallón Santiago;Olivar Santiago
    Abstract: This paper proposes a systemic risk index based on Functional Data Analysis (FDA), overcoming salient shortcomings of standard methodologies related to data usage, data sparseness, and high dimensionality issues. Using Mexican data, a set of systemic risk indexes are constructed and we show that the proposed functional index captures new information, and through simulations, that it outperforms previous methods when the indicators become increasingly nonlinear. Finally, we show which indexes serve as complements, and which are the best early warning indicators.
    Keywords: Systemic Risk; Functional Data Analysis; Dimensionality Reduction; Signal Informativeness
    JEL: G01 G10 G17 G18
    Date: 2016–07
  96. By: David Cantarero Prieto; Marta Pascual Sáez
    Abstract: El sistema actual de financiación autonómica se ha caracterizado por no proporcionar suficiencia financiera en muchas regiones a fin de garantizar su nivel de gasto social. Se mantiene de este modo cierto desequilibrio vertical acentuado en los últimos años tras la plena asunción de competencias en educación y sanidad. Igualmente, las variables que se utilizaron al determinar las necesidades de gasto regionales así como su ponderación generaron amplias diferencias en financiación per cápita ajustada y la necesidad de tener que adaptarla a las necesidades reales. En base a lo anterior, y de cara a la reforma del sistema de financiación en especial en la parte correspondiente a los gastos de tipo social, el presente trabajo analiza su cobertura así como los diferentes factores que influyen en dicha problemática.
    Date: 2016–07
  97. By: Fuad Aleskerov; Victoria Oleynik
    Abstract: The multidimensional extension of the Aleskerov-Golubenko polarization index is developed. Several versions of the polarization index are proposed based on different distance functions. Basic properties of the index are examined.
    Date: 2016–07
  98. By: Wolfgang Maennig (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg); Christian Wellbrock (Assistant Professor for media management at the University of Hamburg's School of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, University of Hamburg)
    Abstract: Deutschland wird von Japan überholt, Russland-Bann ohne große Auswirkungen, Brasilien macht großen Satz nach vorn, USA und China bleiben führend.
    Date: 2016–07–28
  99. By: Pingjin Deng
    Abstract: In this contribution we derive an explicit formula for the boundary non-crossing probabilities for Slepian processes associated with the piecewise linear boundary function. This formula is used to develop an approximation formula to the boundary non-crossing probabilities for general continuous boundaries. The formulas we developed are easy to implement in calculation the boundary non-crossing probabilities.
    Date: 2016–08
  100. By: Dalibor Gottwald (University of Pardubice); Libor Švadlenka (University of Pardubice); Hana Pavlisová (Palacký University in Olomouc)
    Abstract: Postal e-services and human capital as a part of intellectual capital are currently two much discussed concepts in the context of developing countries. This paper uses Human Capital Index (HCI) and Postal E-services index (PES index) in order to analyze the level of development of developing countries and to point to the inaccuracy of the developed/developing classification of the World Bank. The paper has two objectives: to discover whether there is a statistical dependence between human capital and postal e-services in developing countries as it is in developed countries, and to create a new subgroup of " more developed " developing countries where this dependence confirms. Results of this paper document that there is a great diversity among developing countries and that additional subgroups may be defined within the rather broad classification of the World Bank, which is based on the GNI per capita indicator only. Human capital is being under scrutiny in numerous contexts but not yet in the context of postal e-services. Our paper presents a new method of analyzing the level of development and widens the range of aspects that must be taken into consideration when implementing measures to promote development.
    Keywords: developing countries,Africa,Asia,human capital,e-services
    Date: 2016
  101. By: Susmita Bhaduri; Dipak Ghosh; Subhadeep Ghosh
    Abstract: We give emphasis on the use of chaos-based rigorous nonlinear technique called Visibility Graph Analysis, to study one economic time series - gold price of USA. This method can offer reliable results with fiinite data. This paper reports the result of such an analysis on the times series depicting the fluctuation of gold price of USA for the span of 25 years(1990 - 2013). This analysis reveals that a quantitative parameter from the theory can explain satisfactorily the real life nature of fluctuation of gold price of USA and hence building a strong database in terms of a quantitative parameter which can eventually be used for forecasting purpose.
    Date: 2016–08
  102. By: Timothy Kehoe (University of Minnesota); Sewon Hur (University of Pittsburgh); Kim Ruhl (New York University Stern School of Busi); Jose Asturias (Georgetown University)
    Abstract: In what order should a developing country adopt policy reforms? Do some policies complement each other? Do others substitute for each other? To address these questions, we develop a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with entry and exit of firms that are monopolistic competitors. Distortions in the model include barriers to entry of firms, barriers to international trade, and barriers to contract enforcement. We find that a reform that reduces one of these distortions has different effects depending on the other distortions present. In particular, reforms to trade barriers and barriers to the entry of new firms are substitutable, as are reforms to contract enforcement and trade barriers. In contrast, reforms to contract enforcement and the barriers to entry are complementary. Finally, the optimal sequencing of reforms requires reforming trade barriers before contract enforcement.
    Date: 2016
  103. By: Simone Cerreia Vioglio; Fabio Maccheroni; Massimo Marinacci
    Abstract: We study absolute and relative attitudes toward ambiguity, determined by wealth effects, from a preferential viewpoint.
    Date: 2016
  104. By: Piermartini, Roberta; Yotov, Yoto V.
    Abstract: The objective of this manuscript is to serve as a practical guide for estimations with the structural gravity model. After a brief review of the theoretical foundations, we summarize the main challenges with gravity estimations and we review the solutions to address those challenges. Then, we integrate the latest developments in the empirical gravity literature and we offer six recommendations to obtain reliable partial equilibrium estimates of the effects of bilateral and non-discriminatory trade policies within the same comprehensive, and theoretically-consistent econometric specification. Our recommendations apply equally to analyses with aggregate and disaggregated data. Interpretation, consistent aggregation methods, and data challenges and sources for gravity estimations are discussed as well. Empirical exercises demonstrate the usefulness, validity, and applicability of our methods.
    Keywords: Structural Gravity,Trade Policy,Estimation,Partial Equilibrium Analysis
    JEL: F13 F14 F16
    Date: 2016
  105. By: Beladi, Hamid (College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio); Chao, Chi-Chur (Department of Economics, Deakin Business School, Deakin University); Ee, Mong Shan (Department of Finance, Deakin Business School, Deakin University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of capital market distortion on income distribution and social welfare in a developing dual economy. In addition to capital market distortion, we also consider the distortion that exists in the labor market. In particular, wage inequality is a consequence of the labor market distortion. The capital market distortion can lead to capital misallocation, which further affects the factor returns in the economy. We find that in the short run, a rise in the capital market distortion in favor of the urban firms do not yield a significant impact on wage inequality. However, the preferential policy on lower capital costs to the urban firms can attract new entry to the urban sector, which could raise skilled wages through an increase in the demand for skilled labor, but lower unskilled wages by substituting capital for unskilled labor. Thus, the existence of the capital market distortion can contribute to wage inequality in the economy via firm dynamics.
    Keywords: Capital market distortion, firm entry, wage inequality, developing economies
    JEL: L52 O18 R58
    Date: 2016–07–24
  106. By: Dudley, William (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
    Abstract: Remarks at Bank Indonesia–Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint International Seminar, Bali Indonesia.
    Keywords: financial market conditions; global economy; interdependency; domestic mandate; Summary of Economic Projections (SEP); FOMC statements; clarity; household longer-term inflation expectations
    Date: 2016–07–31
  107. By: Barbara Rossi; Tatevik Sekhposyan; Matthieu Soupre
    Abstract: We propose a decomposition to distinguish between Knightian uncertainty (ambiguity) and risk, where the ?rst measures the uncertainty about the probability distribution generating the data, while the second measures uncertainty about the odds of the outcomes when the probability distribution is known. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) density forecasts to quantify overall uncertainty as well as the evolution of the di¤erent components of uncertainty over time and investigate their importance for macroeconomic ?uctuations. We also study the behavior and evolution of the various components of our decomposition in a model that features ambiguity and risk.
    Keywords: Uncertainty, Risk, Ambiguity, Knightian Uncertainty, Survey of Professional Forecasters, Predictive Densities.
    JEL: C22 C52 C53
    Date: 2016–05
  108. By: Elettra Agliardi (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)
    Date: 2016–08
  109. By: Emanuele Forlani (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia); Elisabetta Lodigiani (Department of Economics, University of Venice Ca' Foscari); Concetta Mendolicchio (Institute for Employment Research, IAB)
    Abstract: In this paper, we assess the impact of international migration, and the induced home-care service labour supply shock, on fertility decisions and labour supply of native females in Germany. Specifically, we consider individual data of native women from the German Socio-Economic Panel and we merge them with the data on the share of female immigrants and other regional labour market characteristics. We find that an increase of the share of female immigrants at the local level induces women to work longer hours and positively affects the probability to have a child. This effect strengthens for (medium) skilled women and, among them, for women younger than 35 years of age. The negative change in household work attitude confirms the behavioural validity of our results.
    Keywords: Female labour, time allocation, fertility, international migration
    JEL: J13 J22 J61
    Date: 2016–07
  110. By: Chen, Daniel L.; Moskowitz, Tobias; Shue, Kelly
    Date: 2016–07
  111. By: Susan Vroman (Georgetown University); Monica Robayo-Abril (Georgetown University); James Albrecht (Georgetown University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we extend the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model of equilibrium unemployment to incorporate public-sector employment. We calibrate the model to Colombian data and analyze the effects of public-sector wage and employment policy on the unemployment rate, on the division of employment between the private and public sectors, and on the distributions of waes, productivities and education in the two sectors.
    Date: 2016
  112. By: Magali Aubert (UMR MOISA - Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - INRA Montpellier - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] - CIHEAM - Centre International des Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes); Geoffroy Enjolras (CERAG. Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Appliquées à la Gestion - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: Les circuits courts sont désormais un mode de commercialisation reconnu dans l'agriculture française et adopté largement par certains secteurs. Cet article s'inscrit dans le corpus croissant des études sur les circuits courts en proposant une étude de la dynamique de l'adoption de la vente au détail. Il s'appuie sur la base de données du RICA pour les années 2006 à 2012 et considère des exploitations présentes en continu sur cette période. Des statistiques descriptives sont complétées par un modèle de sélection en deux étapes d'Heckman qui considère la vente au détail et sa durée d'adoption comme variables expliquées. Les résultats confirment le lien entre niveau de formation de l'exploitant, utilisation de main-d'œuvre, usage des produits phytosanitaires et adoption des circuits courts de commercialisation. Ils mettent en évidence la relation entre la réduction de main-d'œuvre et des produits phytosanitaires, l'établissement d'une situation financière saine, ainsi que des particularités sectorielles dans la durée d'adoption de la vente au détail. En contribuant à une connaissance plus approfondie des modes de commercialisation en vente directe, ces résultats traduisent l'émergence d'un modèle spécifique d'exploitations centré autour de l'utilisation des circuits courts.
    Keywords: vente au détail,rica,viticulture,maraîchage,arboriculture,heckman
    Date: 2015–12–10
  113. By: Knobel Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Baeva Marina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: With Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on August 22, 2012, the country joined the mechanism of settlement of trade disputes in the WTO. Such a mechanism operates in the WTO in accordance with the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU). So, from August 2012 Russia has the right to protect its trade interests by means of the above instrument.
    Keywords: Russian economy, foreign trade, WTO, trade disputes
    JEL: F10 F13 F19
    Date: 2016
  114. By: Vasilev, Aleksandar
    Abstract: The main focus of the paper is the growth process in transition countries in the period 1992-2002, by taking the production function approach. The empirical cross-section study performed found that initial life expectancy and net savings speed up growth while death rate, inflation, and terms of trade hamper the increase in GDP. The paper also aims at policy implications, such as better spending in the legal system, health care and social security could help governments foster the restructuring process and decrease the effect of the mistakes done in the past.
    Keywords: Growth,transition countries
    JEL: C01
    Date: 2015
  115. By: Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sternik G. (Plekhanov REA)
    Abstract: The paper deals with the issues of price dynamics on residential property on secondary and primary markets
    Keywords: Russian economy, residential property
    JEL: K11 H82 L32 L33
    Date: 2016
  116. By: Idrisov Georgy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kaukin Andrey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Ponomarev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Russia’s real economy continued throughout 2015 to accommodate itself to new terms of trade and a new geopolitical context, both of which rendered the dynamics of domestic market’s key indicators less stable and less foreseeable. To make sure that sectoral dynamics are interpreted correctly, analysis of time series in the short term should be attended with seasonal and calendar adjustments. In order to be certain that the available dynamics of industrial production indicates that a period of downturn (or growth) is over, recovery (or slowdown) processes are afoot, monthly series should be decomposed into calendar, seasonal, irregular and trend components.[1] It is the changes of the trend component that should be analyzed in order to provide a substantial interpretation of sectoral trends.
    Keywords: Russian economy, Russian industry, industrial production
    JEL: C53 E37 L21 L52
    Date: 2016
  117. By: Yasmina Bouzarour-Amokrane (LGP - Laboratoire Génie de Production - Ecole Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Tarbes); Ayeley Tchangani (UPS - Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse 3); François Pérès (LGP - Laboratoire Génie de Production - Ecole Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Tarbes)
    Abstract: In manufacturing sectors, firms are paying an increasing attention to sustainability concept with regard to their end-of-life products in order to respect environmental norms and satisfy the consumer sensitivity. This practise allows creating value by reintroducing dismantling and recovering parts and/or materials of end-of-life products into manufacturing process, or into maintenance process. Thus, deconstruction processes are developed in order to examine all activities addressing the end of life (EOL) systems to ensure its disposal according to environmental constraints when seeking an economic optimum. In this context, one of the first tasks to perform is to repatriate the EOL systems at lowest cost considering geographical optimization of treatment centers. Considering this point, the present paper proposes an evaluation and optimization approach for the withdrawal location process in the field of aircraft dismantling. Given the multitude and heterogeneity of characteristics to be taken into account, we propose to consider dismantling site location problem as multi-criteria/multi-objectives decision making problem and solve it using a new AHP-BOCR approach based on qualitative and quantitative evaluations. A bipolar structuring framework is considered to distinguish positive and negative aspects in the elicitation/evaluation process to avoid compensation and satisficing game theory is used as suitable mathematical tool for recommendation process. An experimental study is carried out to show the usefulness of the framework.
    Keywords: End-of-life product management,Reverse logistics,Withdrawal plan,BOCR analysis,Satisficing game
    Date: 2015
  118. By: Oke Chr. Beckmann & Susanne Royer (Europa-Universität Flensburg, International Institute of Management)
    Abstract: The focus of this research lies on the question of how the business model concept can be specified, systematically operationalized and adapted to different market contexts. In the existing literature there are many definitions of business models which include different components. We want to give a structured overview of comprehensive business model concepts and test if the definitions also reflect special market contexts such as platform markets. Platform markets are characterized by different market sides which are connected by network effects. Combining both areas, the aim is to come up with a comprehensive conceptualization of business models for researchers and practitioners acknowledging market characteristics. We test the resulting concept which we call “business model wheel” for the e-mobility market which we have chosen as an example for platform markets with strong network effects and identified differences between the business models of the electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers Tesla Motors and Renault.
    Keywords: Business models, market characteristics, platform markets, competitive advantage, case study, e-mobility
    Date: 2016
  119. By: Chabé-Ferret, Bastien (Université catholique de Louvain); Machado, Joel (University of Luxembourg); Wahba, Jackline (University of Southampton)
    Abstract: This paper studies how return migration intentions affect immigrants' behavior. Using a unique French data set, we analyze the relationship between return plans and several immigrants' behavior in the host and origin countries addressing the potential endogeneity between return plans and different investment decisions. We also investigate the potential trade-off and complementarities between various immigrants' investment behaviors. We find that temporary migrants are more likely to remit and invest in the country of origin, but less likely to invest in the host country. Moreover, our results show that there is no trade-off between immigrants' investment in the home and in the host country. In turn, we find substantial heterogeneity in behavior across migrants of different origins.
    Keywords: temporary migration, return intention, remittances
    JEL: F22 F24 D14
    Date: 2016–07
  120. By: Bharti Venkatesh; Lalit Balani
    Abstract: Requirements are basic building block for any project clear requirements definitions are very important for any project. Without clearly spelt out requirements it is very difficult to develop a stable system. Worldwide percentage of successfully completed projects is very low, and most of the failures are attributed to unclear, ambiguous or undefined requirements. In Case of software projects, management of requirements is very critical for successful Project Management.This paper attempts to highlight what are the common causes for failure of requirement management process in software projects. Thispaper also highlights continuous usage of different metrics so that whenever the requirement management process performance goes off track, corrective action can be takeninstead of acting only after completion of the phase. Key words: Requirement Management, metrics, Stakeholders, Project Management
    Date: 2016–06
  121. By: Chiu, Jonathan; Monnet, Cyril
    Abstract: The market for central bank reserves is mainly over-the-counter and exhibits a core-periphery network structure. This paper develops a model of relationship lending in the unsecured interbank market. In equilibrium, a tiered lending network arises endogenously as banks choose to build relationships in order to insure against liquidity shocks and to economize on the cost to trade in the interbank market. Relationships matter for banks’ bidding strategies at the central bank auction, and introduce a relationship premium that can significantly distort the observed overnight rate. For example, it can explain some anomalies in the level of interest rates – namely, the fact that banks sometimes trade above (resp. below) the central bank’s lending (resp. deposit) rate. The model also helps understand how monetary policy affects the network structure of the interbank market and its functioning, and how the market responds dynamically to an exit from the floor system. We also use the model to discuss the potential effects of bilateral exposure limit on relationship lending.
    Keywords: Interbank market, Relationships, Networks, Monetary policy, Corridor system,
    Date: 2016
  122. By: Isaac Baley; Julio A. Blanco
    Abstract: Nominal shocks have long-lasting effects on real economic activity, beyond those implied by standard models that target the average frequency of price adjustment in micro data. This paper develops a price-setting model that explains this gap through the interplay of menu costs and uncertainty about idiosyncratic productivity. Uncertainty arises from firms' inability to distinguish between permanent and transitory productivity changes. Upon the arrival of a productivity shock, a firm's uncertainty spikes up and then fades with learning until the next shock arrives. These uncertainty cycles, when paired with menu costs, generate recurrent episodes of high adjustment frequency followed by episodes of low adjustment frequency at the firm level. A decreasing hazard rate of price adjustment results, as in the data. Taking into account this pricing behavior amplifies the persistence and reduces the pass-through of nominal shocks.
    Keywords: menu costs, uncertainty, information frictions, monetary policy, hazard rates
    JEL: D8 E3 E5
    Date: 2016–07
  123. By: Isaac Baley; Julio A. Blanco
    Abstract: Nominal shocks have long-lasting effects on real economic activity, beyond those implied by standard models that target the average frequency of price adjustment in micro data. This paper develops a price-setting model that explains this gap through the interplay of menu costs and uncertainty about idiosyncratic productivity. Uncertainty arises from firms' inability to distinguish between permanent and transitory productivity changes. Upon the arrival of a productivity shock, a firm's uncertainty spikes up and then fades with learning until the next shock arrives. These uncertainty cycles, when paired with menu costs, generate recurrent episodes of high adjustment frequency followed by episodes of low adjustment frequency at the firm level. A decreasing hazard rate of price adjustment results, as in the data. Taking into account this pricing behavior amplifies the persistence and reduces the pass-through of nominal shocks.
    Keywords: Menu costs, uncertainty, information frictions, monetary policy, hazard rates.
    JEL: D8 E3 E5
    Date: 2016–07
  124. By: Mónica Sofía Gómez; Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte; Andrés Fernando Carreño; Vicente Royuela
    Abstract: La calidad del trabajo abarca múltiples dimensiones objetivas y subjetivas, que pueden incluir las rentas del trabajo, la estabilidad laboral, la satisfacción laboral y la seguridad social. En este trabajo se sigue el método propuesto por Gómez et al. (2013), que introduce una nueva forma de calcular la calidad del trabajo, consistente en la medición de: i) el uso del enfoque de funcionamientos y las capacidades de Sen y ii) un método de conjuntos difusos. Usando la Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares (GEIH), se calcula un Índice Multidimensional de Calidad del Empleo (IMCE) a nivel nacional según edad, sexo, nivel educativo, tamaño de la empresa, y el sector de la industria. Un tema que se destaca de nuestros resultados es la existencia de una "Ciclo de calidad de vida laboral", con los puntajes más altos del índice a los 30 años, lo cual puede tener implicaciones importantes para el sistema de seguridad social. Classification JEL: J81, J89, J46, C02
    Keywords: Calidad del empleo, conjuntos difusos, Colombia
    Date: 2015–12
  125. By: Caglayan, Mustafa; Talavera, Oleksandr
    Abstract: Using a panel of Turkish commercial banks, we examine credit dollarization and its impact on banks' liquidity and profitability. Our estimates suggest that banks partially passthrough foreign denominated funds to borrowers in the form of foreign denominated credit. Furthermore, banks which lend in foreign denominated currency hold less liquid assets and experience higher return on assets. The results suggest that, when the domestic currency is stable, banks in Turkey manage their liquidity aggressively to earn higher returns on foreign denominated funds.
    Keywords: Financial Dollarization, Commercial Banks, Liquidity, Performance, Pass-through
    JEL: G20 G21
    Date: 2016–07–16
  126. By: Damien Ackerer (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - Swiss Finance Institute); Damir Filipović (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - Swiss Finance Institute)
    Abstract: We introduce a novel class of credit risk models in which the drift of the survival process of a firm is a linear function of the factors. These models outperform the standard affine default intensity models in terms of analytical tractability. The prices of defaultable bonds and credit default swaps (CDS) are linear in the factors. The price of a CDS option can be uniformly approximated by polynomials in the factors. An empirical study illustrates the versatility of these models by fitting CDS spread time series.
    Keywords: Credit Default Swap, Credit Default Swap Option, Credit Risk, Credit Valuation Adjustment, Survival Process
    JEL: G12 G13
  127. By: Aalia Cassim; Kezia Lilenstein; Morné Oosthuizen; Francois Steenkamp; Tara Caetano (University of Cape Town; Deputy Director)
    Abstract: This research seeks to explore the relationship between informality and inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa, with a particular focus on South Africa. South Africans typically hold one of two opposing views on the informal sector. The first is that informality should be encouraged as an under-utilised source of new employment; the second is that it should be discouraged as an inferior source of employment. The central research question is therefore: “Do informal labour markets promote or constrain inclusive growth?” In order to examine the hypotheses, we use three different methodologies. Firstly, we undertake a regional evidence synthesis examining literature and case studies from the sub-Saharan Africa region. Secondly, we expand on the South African case study and examine the nature of transitions within the labour market. Thirdly, we examine to what extent income shocks may impact the likelihood of engagement within the informal sector.
    Keywords: informality; inclusive growth, employment, labour markets, transitions, South Africa
    JEL: E26 J4 R11
    Date: 2016–02
  128. By: Meierrieks, Daniel; Renner, Laura
    Abstract: This contribution investigates the relationship between economic freedom and international migration. We argue that higher levels of economic freedom in the source countries of migration may discourage migration by generating more economic security, providing more economic opportunities and stimulating overall economic activity. Using a panel dataset on migration from 91 developing and emerging to the 20 most attractive OECD destination countries for the 1980-2010 period, we find that more economic freedom at home discourages high-skilled migration but does not matter to low-skilled migration. The negative association between economic freedom and high-skilled emigration also holds when we estimate (dynamic) panel models that allow for endogeneity in the economic freedom-migration nexus. Our findings suggest that high-skilled individuals are especially responsive to the economic incentives arising from economic freedom. This is especially true for those components of economic freedom associated with the provision of economic security in the form of wellprotected property rights, sound money and limited government involvement in the economic life.
    Keywords: economic freedom,international migration,low-skilled and high-skilled migration
    JEL: F22 J61
    Date: 2016
  129. By: Ruiz-Castillo, Javier; Carrasco, Raquel; Albarrán, Pedro
    Abstract: This paper compares the average productivity of migrants (who work in a country different from their country of origin) and stayers (whose entire academic career takes place in their country of origin) in a set of 2,530 highly productive economists that work in 2007 in a selection of the top 81 Economics departments worldwide. The main findings are the following two. Firstly, productivity comparisons between migrants and stayers depend on the cohort and the type of department where individuals work in 2007. For example, in the top U.S. departments, foreigners are more productive than stayers only among older individuals; in the bottom U.S. departments, foreigners are more productive than stayers for both cohorts, while in the other countries with at least one department in the sample the productivity of foreigners and stayers is indistinguishable for both cohorts. Secondly, when we restrict our attention to an elite consisting of economists with above average productivity, all productivity differences between migrants and stayers in the U.S. vanish. These results are very robust. However, our ability to interpret these correlations is severely limited by the absence of information on the decision to migrate.
    Date: 2016–07–01
  130. By: Tsagris, Michail; Preston, Simon; T.A. Wood, Andrew
    Abstract: In the context of data that lie on the simplex, we investigate use of empirical and exponential empirical likelihood, and Hotelling and James statistics, to test the null hypothesis of equal population means based on two independent samples. We perform an extensive numerical study using data simulated from various distributions on the simplex. The results, taken together with practical considerations regarding implementation, support the use of bootstrap-calibrated James statistic.
    Keywords: Compositional data, hypothesis testing, Hotelling test, James test, non parametric, empirical likelihood, bootstrap
    JEL: C1
    Date: 2016–07–19
  131. By: Rossi, Barbara; Sekhposyan, Tatevik; Soupre, Mattheiu
    Abstract: We propose a decomposition to distinguish between Knightian uncertainty (ambiguity) and risk, where the first measures the uncertainty about the probability distribution generating the data, while the second measures uncertainty about the odds of the outcomes when the probability distribution is known. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) density forecasts to quantify overall uncertainty as well as the evolution of the different components of uncertainty over time and investigate their importance for macroeconomic fluctuations. We also study the behavior and evolution of the various components of our decomposition in a model that features ambiguity and risk.
    Keywords: Ambiguity; Knightian Uncertainty; Predictive Densities.; risk; Survey of Professional Forecasters; uncertainty
    JEL: C22 C52 C53
    Date: 2016–07
  132. By: Vahagn Galstyan (Trinity College Dublin); Philip R. Lane (Central Bank of Ireland and Trinity College Dublin); Caroline Mehigan (OECD); Rogelio Mercado (Trinity College Dublin)
    Abstract: Research on the geographical distribution of international portfolios has mainly focused on data aggregated to the country level. We exploit newly-available data that disaggregates the holders and issuers of international securities along sectoral lines. We find that patterns evident in the aggregate data do not uniformly apply across the various holding and issuing sectors, such that a full understanding of cross-border portfolio positions requires granular-level analysis.
    Keywords: International portfolios, International capital flows, Gravity models
    JEL: F30 F41 G15
    Date: 2016–07
  133. By: Allin Cottrell (Wake Forest University); Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Sociali); Matteo Pelagatti (Universita' di Milano - Bicocca)
    Abstract: We clarify a point regarding the appropriate measure(s) of the variance of smoothed disturbances in the context of linear state-space models. This involves explaining how two different concepts, which are sometimes given the same name in the literature, relate to each other. We also describe the behavior of several common software packages is in this regard.
    Keywords: State-space models, Disturbance smoother, Auxiliary residuals.
    JEL: C32 C63
    Date: 2016–07–29
  134. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Central and West Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Central and West Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: The resurgence of conservative patriarchal values in Tajikistan have led to the rise of early marriages and polygamy, compromising women’s and girls’ opportunities to realize their full potential to live quality lives, and have deterred women from fully participating in and benefitting from development. This country gender assessment report re-examines the gender equality situation in the country, identifies critical gender issues such as gender-based barriers to economic opportunities, social services, and to leadership and decision-making posts. The report also provides sector-specific gender analyses and identifies entry points for mainstreaming gender in agriculture and natural resources, education, energy, entrepreneurship and SME development, and transport.
    Keywords: Tajikistan, women, gender issues, gender equality, gender mainstreaming, gender and development, gender index, gender roles, sex-disaggregated statistics, climate change, private sector, entrepreneurship, education, water, transport, energy, agriculture and natural resources, infrastructure, policy, gender institutions, leadership, civil society, decision-making, poverty, economic opportunities, health, violence against women, labor, migration, wages
    Date: 2016–06
  135. By: Klosterhuber, Wolfram (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Lehnert, Patrick (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Seth, Stefan (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
    Abstract: This data report describes the LIAB Cross-sectional Model 2 1993 - 2014 of the Linked Em-ployer-Employee Data from the IAB (LIAB QM2 9314). Additional Information Auszählungen frequencies and labels
    Keywords: IAB-Linked-Employer-Employee-Datensatz, Querschnittuntersuchung, Datenbank, Datenaufbereitung, Datenorganisation, Datenschutz, Datenzugang, Datenqualität, Stichprobenverfahren
    Date: 2016–07–22
  136. By: Kehoe, Timothy J. (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Pujolas, Pau S. (McMaster University); Ruhl, Kim J. (New York University)
    Abstract: We show that a trade model with an exogenous set of heterogeneous firms with fixed operating costs has the same aggregate outcomes as a span-of-control model. Fixed costs in the heterogeneous-firm model are entrepreneurs' forgone wage in the span-of-control model.
    Keywords: Span-of-control model; Firm heterogeneity; Income distribution; International trade
    JEL: D31 D43 F12
    Date: 2016–08–01
  137. By: Jozef Barunik; Evzen Kocenda; Lukas Vacha
    Abstract: We show how bad and good volatility propagate through forex markets, i.e., we provide evidence for asymmetric volatility connectedness on forex markets. Using high-frequency, intra-day data of the most actively traded currencies over 2007 - 2015 we document the dominating asymmetries in spillovers that are due to bad rather than good volatility. We also show that negative spillovers are chiefly tied to the dragging sovereign debt crisis in Europe while positive spillovers are correlated with the subprime crisis, different monetary policies among key world central banks, and developments on commodities markets. It seems that a combination of monetary and real-economy events is behind the net positive asymmetries in volatility spillovers, while fiscal factors are linked with net negative spillovers.
    Date: 2016–07
  138. By: Danny Leipziger (George Washington University, The Growth Dialogue); Victoria Dodev
    Abstract: Some sources of heterogeneity among cities, i.e. age, gender, race, income, and education, have been the object of substantial inquiry. The reasons are obvious. These differences are easily observed and may have important implications for economic activity. This study considers another potentially important population characteristic, obesity. Descriptive statistics reveal that the intercity variance in obesity rates is substantial. Empirical results demonstrate that demographic and regional amenity variables all have a relation to intercity differences in obesity. Because obesity is important for climate preferences, performance, and productivity, its omission from previous studies and its correlation with amenity and demographic characteristics, could create problems for empirical research. For example, it is possible to explain the recent climate preference finding by Sinha and Cropper (2015) that willingness to pay for higher summer temperature is negatively correlated, Ï = − 0.83, with preferences for higher winter temperatures.
    Date: 2016
  139. By: Carole Yauk; Iain Lambert; Francesco Marchetti; George Douglas
    Abstract: Germ cell/heritable mutations are important regulatory endpoints for international agencies interested in protecting the health of future generations. However, germ cell mutation analysis has been hampered by a lack of efficient tools. The motivation for developing this AOP was to provide context for new assays in this field, identify research gaps and facilitate the development of new methods. In this AOP, a compound capable of alkylating DNA is delivered to the testes causing germ cell mutations and subsequent mutations in the offspring of the exposed parents. Although there are some gaps surrounding some mechanistic aspects of this AOP, the overarching AOP is widely accepted and applies broadly to any species that produces sperm.
    Keywords: male pre-meiotic germ cells, DNA repair, DNA alkylation, DNA adducts, heritable mutations
    Date: 2016–08–04
  140. By: Waemustafa, Waeibrorheem; Abdullah, Azrul
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationships between the effectiveness of Shariah supervisory board (SSB), their remuneration and mode of financing Islamic bank. The SSB effectiveness is evaluated by an index based on 9 attributes score. This study comprises 18 Islamic banks in which operating in Malaysia from the year 2012 to 2013 as a sample. Our regression analysis shows that the effectiveness of SSB does not concern with the mode of Islamic bank financing. However, we found that SSB remuneration and bank’s financial growth shown a positive and significant relationship with mode of financing. The implications of these findings are discussed.
    Keywords: Shariah Supervisory Board, Mode of Financing, Islamic Bank.
    JEL: G21 G32 G38 G39 M41 M48 M49
    Date: 2015
  141. By: Alesina, Alberto Francesco; Michalopoulos, Stelios; Papaioannou, Ellias
    Abstract: This study explores the consequences and origins of between-ethnicity economic inequality across countries. First, combining satellite images of nighttime luminosity with the historical homelands of ethnolinguistic groups we construct measures of ethnic inequality for a large sample of countries. We also compile proxies of overall spatial inequality and regional inequality across administrative units. Second, we uncover a strong negative association between ethnic inequality and contemporary comparative development; the correlation is also present when we condition on regional inequality, which is itself related to under-development. Third, we investigate the roots of ethnic inequality and establish that differences in geographic endowments across ethnic homelands explain a sizable fraction of the observed variation in economic disparities across groups. Fourth, we show that ethnic-specific inequality in geographic endowments is also linked to under-development.
    Date: 2016
  142. By: Mogens, Fosgerau
    Abstract: This note develops a model of product differentiation that can be estimated using standard regression techniques and applies it to a panel data set of new car sales. The model allows for complex substitution patterns according to an overlapping nest structure that makes cars closer substitutes if the share brand, body type, and/or quality level. A nest comprising all the car alternatives ensure that they are closer substitutes with each other than with the outside good. In addition, the model comprises fixed effects by car model, controlling for unobserved car quality.
    Keywords: Market shares; complex substitution; endogeneity; discrete choice; new cars
    JEL: C23 C25 C26 D12 L62
    Date: 2016–07–01
  143. By: Danila, Marius
    Abstract: As of today any official or informal communication with respect to Europe’s economic future is most of the time accompanied by a unique keyword: „uncertainty”; several factors are at the same time being mentioned: global economy trends, fossil fuels price, Brexit, refugee crisis. With respect to the European financial industry a fundamental factor generates short and medium term uncertainty – the fact that, 8 years since the beginnings of the global financial crisis, the European financial sector, especially the banking industry, is still in transition. Despite the optimism shown by many European officials, the continental banking system is facing an impressive list of challenges. This analysis tries to put into spotlight some of the most important such challenges together with identifying appropriate ways of mitigation.
    Keywords: European banking, European Central Bank, non performing loans, asset quality, FinTech, interest rates
    JEL: E43 E44 F33 G15
    Date: 2016–04–16
  144. By: Anderson, D. Mark (Montana State University); Brown, Ryan (University of Colorado Denver); Charles, Kerwin Kofi (Harris School, University of Chicago); Rees, Daniel I. (University of Colorado Denver)
    Abstract: Occupational licensing is intended to protect consumers. Whether it does so is an important, but unanswered, question. Exploiting variation across states and municipalities in the timing and details of midwifery laws introduced during the period 1900-1940, and using a rich data set that we assembled from primary sources, we find that requiring midwives to be licensed reduced maternal mortality by 6 to 7 percent. In addition, we find that requiring midwives to be licensed may have had led to modest reductions in nonwhite infant mortality and mortality among children under the age of 2 from diarrhea. These estimates provide the first econometric evidence of which we are aware on the relationship between licensure and consumer safety, and are directly relevant to ongoing policy debates both in the United States and in the developing world surrounding the merits of licensing midwives.
    Keywords: occupational licensing, midwives, maternal mortality, infant mortality
    JEL: J08 I18
    Date: 2016–07
  145. By: H. Evren Damar; Adi Mordel
    Abstract: We study how changes in prudential requirements affect cross-border lending of Canadian banks by utilizing an index that aggregates adjustments in key regulatory instruments across jurisdictions. We show that when a destination country tightens local prudential measures, Canadian banks lend more to that jurisdiction, and the effect is particularly significant when capital requirements are tightened and weaker if banks lend mainly via affiliates. Our evidence also suggests that Canadian banks adjust foreign lending in response to domestic regulatory changes. The results confirm the presence of heterogeneous spillover effects of foreign prudential requirements.
    Keywords: Financial Institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies
    JEL: G01 F34 G21
    Date: 2016
  146. By: Yan Bai (University of Rochester); Luigi Bocola (Northwestern University); Cristina Arellano (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)
    Abstract: During the recent European debt crisis, sovereign spreads rose substantially and economic activity collapsed. In this paper, we develop an integrated framework of government debt crises and aggregate fluctuations in an environment of firms default risk. Firms face interest rates that depend on their default risk and also on government default risk. We consider two sources of aggregate fluctuations; one arising from the public sector that directly affects government spreads and another one arising in the private sector which affects the productivity of all firms. Public shocks affect firms differentially based on their credit needs. Aggregate productivity shocks, in contrast, affect all firms equally. We use firm level data and our model to identify the source of the crisis. We find that public shocks account for about 50% of the decline in output for Italy.
    Date: 2016
  147. By: Firdaus Hafidz (Academic Unit of Health Economics, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds); Tim Ensor (Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds); Sandy Tubeuf (Academic Unit of Health Economics, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds)
    Abstract: Limited health care resources and budget restrictions in low-and middle- income countries (LMICs) have led policy makers to improve efficiency. Therefore, it is essential to understand how efficiency has been measured in the LMICs setting. To date, no systematic review has been conducted to assess efficiency measurement in health facilities in LMICs. This paper synthesises studies of efficiency measurement in health facilities in LMICs. A systematic search of Embase, MEDLINE, Econlit and Global Health identified 4944 articles with a further 15 articles identified through manual searching. A total of 95 papers were eligible for inclusion. These covered a wide range type of health facilities with more than half of the studies (61%) were hospitals. Most studies (67%) employed Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA,) as efficiency measurement method. Studies usually included physical and financial inputs while they used the number of outpatients, inpatients, or bed-days as outputs. We identified main internal and external contextual factors applied to explore the determinant of health facility efficiency. Most studies suggested policies focused on input optimisation, rather than increasing production. The paper concludes by highlighting the need for routine benchmarking as a monitoring and evaluation tool to improve efficiency
    Keywords: efficiency, health facility, low- and middle-income countries
    JEL: I10 D24
    Date: 2016
  148. By: Brian D. Varian (London School of Economics and Political Science)
    Abstract: This paper calculates indicators of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) for 17 British manufacturing industries for the years 1880, 1890, and 1900. The resulting indicators show that the late-Victorian ‘workshop of the world’ was at a marked comparative disadvantage in a number of manufacturing industries. The paper then proceeds to identify the factor determinants of Britain’s manufacturing comparative advantages (disadvantages) using a four-factor Heckscher-Ohlin model that relies upon these indicators. In contrast with previous scholarship, the manufacturing comparative advantages of late-Victorian Britain were in the relatively labour non-intensive industries, and this pattern became more pronounced throughout the period. The paper concludes with the observation that the factor determinants of Britain’s manufacturing comparative advantages appear closer to those of the United States than had traditionally been thought.
    Keywords: comparative advantage, Heckscher-Ohlin, manufacturing, Britain, nineteenth century
    JEL: F11 F14 N63 N73
    Date: 2016–07
  149. By: Pablo Hernández de Cos (Banco de España); Aitor Lacuesta (Banco de España); Enrique Moral-Benito (Banco de España)
    Abstract: This document analyses real-time revisions in output gap estimates published by the European Commission for 15 countries over the period 2002-2014. We find that output gap revisions (both in levels and changes) are mainly driven by GDP growth forecast errors. Also, output gap revisions have opposite signs across expansions and recessions: real-time output gaps are downward biased (smaller than the final estimates) during expansions and upward biased (higher than the final estimates) in recessions. Our findings may have relevant implications for the conduct and assessment of fiscal policy in real time. For instance, according to our results, real-time estimates of the structural balance would be upward biased in expansions and downward biased in recessions. This implies that the fiscal stance of an economy estimated in real time would be excessively expansionary in recessions as compared to the final estimate. As a result, we argue that corrections to real-time estimates of the structural balance suggested in the literature should be contingent on the degree of slack in the economy.
    Keywords: output-gaps, real-time data, fiscal policy
    JEL: E32 E52 E60
    Date: 2016–07
  150. By: Bingley, Paul (Danish National Centre for Social Research (SFI)); Cappellari, Lorenzo (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Tatsiramos, Konstantinos (University of Nottingham)
    Abstract: This paper studies the influence of family, schools and neighborhoods on life-cycle earnings inequality. We develop an earnings dynamics model linking brothers, schoolmates and teenage parish neighbors using population register data for Denmark. We exploit differences in the timing of family mobility and the partial overlap of schools and neighborhoods to separately identify sorting from community and family effects. We find that family is far more important than community in influencing earnings inequality over the life cycle. Neighborhoods and schools influence earnings only early in the working life and this influence falls rapidly and becomes negligible after age 30.
    Keywords: sibling correlations, neighborhoods, schools, life-cycle earnings, inequality
    JEL: D31 J62
    Date: 2016–07
  151. By: Barbara Rossi; Tatevik Sekhposyan; Matthiew Soupre
    Abstract: We propose a decomposition to distinguish between Knightian uncertainty (ambiguity) and risk, where the ?rst measures the uncertainty about the probability distribution generating the data, while the second measures uncertainty about the odds of the outcomes when the probability distribution is known. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) density forecasts to quantify overall uncertainty as well as the evolution of the di¤erent components of uncertainty over time and investigate their importance for macroeconomic ?uctuations. We also study the behavior and evolution of the various components of our decomposition in a model that features ambiguity and risk.
    Keywords: uncertainty, risk, ambiguity, knightian uncertainty, survey of professional forecasters, predictive densities
    JEL: C22 C52 C53
    Date: 2016–07
  152. By: Dietzenbacher, Bas (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Estévez-Fernández, A.; Borm, Peter (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Hendrickx, Ruud (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes bankruptcy problems with nontransferable utility as a generalization of bankruptcy problems with monetary estate and claims. Following the classical axiomatic theory of bankruptcy, we formulate some appropriate properties for NTU-bankruptcy rules and study their implications. We explore duality of bankruptcy rules and we derive several characterizations of the generalized proportional rule and the constrained relative equal awards rule.
    Keywords: NTU-bankruptcy problem; axiomatic analysis; duality; proportional rule; constrained relative equal awards rule
    JEL: C79 C63 D74
    Date: 2016
  153. By: Pencavel, John (Stanford University)
    Abstract: Observations on munition workers are organized to examine the relationship between their output each week, their working hours and days each week, and their working hours and days in adjacent weeks. The hypothesis is that workers need to recover from work and a long working week results in greater fatigue and stress and yet provides insufficient time for recuperation before the next week's work opens. Workers require time off the job to restore their physical, mental, and emotional capacities and, if a long working week provides inadequate time to repair, their subsequent work performance suffers.
    Keywords: working hours, output, productivity, recovery
    JEL: J24 J22 N34
    Date: 2016–07
  154. By: Abramov Alexander (RANEPA)
    Abstract: The year 2015 saw a continuation of the longest slump in the history of Russia's stock market, which had started in May 2008. In 1997–1998, after the RTS Index had dropped by 91.3%, and the MICEX Index - by 73.0%, from their pre-crisis highs over a period that lasted slightly more than a year, they both managed to recover their former quotes in 58 and 8 months respectively. Now, as of February 2016, after their plummet during the acute phase of the 2008 crisis, both these stock indices have never recovered: the MICEX Index over the period of 88 months, and the RTS Index – 85 months.
    Keywords: Russian economy, financial markets, financial institutions
    JEL: G01 G12 G18 G21 G24 G28 G32 G33
    Date: 2016
  155. By: Budría, Santiago (Universidad Pontificia Comillas); Swedberg, Pablo (St. Louis University); Fonseca, Marlene
    Abstract: This paper explores the impact of educational attainment on immigrant earnings in Spain using a Quantile Regression approach. Most of the previous research on the impact schooling on earnings has focused on the mean effect neglecting the discrepancies that arise from unobserved heterogeneity. This paper uses the Spanish National Immigrant Survey (NIS), a large-scale immigration survey published by the Spanish National Statistics Institute in 2008. We find that the return to higher education is on average roughly 17%. Interestingly, the impact is twice as strong (20.7%) for immigrants at the top two quintile(s) of the conditional earnings distribution than for those at the bottom of the distribution (10%). This result suggests that the benefits derived from higher education are particularly relevant for individuals with stronger unobserved abilities and marketable skills. By contrast, individuals in the middle and particularly lower quintiles fail to reap a significant return. The large degree of heterogeneity for the returns to schooling found in our research suggests that higher education may be less effective among specific population groups.
    Keywords: returns to education, quantile regression, wage inequality
    JEL: C29 D31 I21
    Date: 2016–07
  156. By: Ismaël Rafaï (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS); Sébastien Duchêne (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS); Eric Guerci (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS); Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky (Paris School of Economics); Fabien Mathy (Université Côte d'Azur; BCL CNRS)
    Abstract: In this paper, we will put forward an original experiment to reveal empirical "anomalies" in the process of acquisition, elaboration and retrieval of information in the context of reading. We show that the acquisition and elaboration of information leads to the formation of a mental picture that may be incompatible with the information stored in memory. To answer some specific questions, individuals make use of a mental picture rather than combine their stored information appropriately. Our hypothesis is that quantum cognition theory provides a fruitful interpretative framework to account for these anomalies. Finally, we provide evidence that individuals with a low CRT (Cognitive Reflection Test) score tend to demonstrate, more often than not, this particular behavior.
    Keywords: quantum cognition, learning, experimental economics
    JEL: C91 C90 D83 C21
    Date: 2016–08
  157. By: Pierre FAUVET
    Abstract: We consider the market approval process of a potential dangerous product for health and/or environment. In this context, the impact of a failure responsibility of the industrial pressure groups is studied. This failure may be due to the fact either that the industrial group responsibility is not recognized, or that the victims group does not request compensation for damages. Assuming that the pressure groups have private information about the damages, we analyse the incentives for a benevolent regulator to pay attention to the lobbying activities through a contest (Tullock, 1980). In particular, if there is no failure of th e responsibility system, we attest that the regulator could pay attention to the lobbies. However, failure responsibility of the industrial group never implements an optimal state of economy. Finally, we find that it is socially beneficial that the pressure groups play sequentially.
    Keywords: market approval process; contest; responsibility failure.
    JEL: C72 D7
    Date: 2016
  158. By: Zadonsky Georgy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: According to the data released by the Rosreestr, the area of land plots owned by Russian nationals keeps decreasing and as of 1 January 2015 amounted to 115,400,000 ha or 6.8% of the land of the Russian Federation against 117m ha (6.84%) as of 1 January 2014. On the contrary, the area of land in public and municipal ownership and ownership of legal entities keeps growing. Within a year, the area of land plots owned by legal entities increased by 1.3m ha and amounted to 17.2m ha or 1.0% of the land of the Russian Federation. The area of land plots in public and municipal ownership increased by 37,900 ha. As of 1 January 2015, Russian nationals’ land shares decreased by 3.0m ha and amounted to 5.2% (89.3m ha) of the country’s land or 67.3% of land in private ownership. A decrease in the area of land in shared ownership is regarded as positive factor as land plots in shared ownership by virtue of incompleteness of that title are used inefficiently.
    Keywords: Russian economy, land market
    JEL: G21 K11 L74 L85
    Date: 2016
  159. By: Huse, Cristian; Koptyug, Nikita
    Abstract: This paper examines how consumers react to the financial distress of durable goods manufacturers by looking at the Swedish new car market. We employ a difference-in-differences matching methodology whereby we compare sales of carmaker Saab with those of a carefully constructed control group of substitute products. To account for possible substitution between products in the treatment and control groups, we propose and apply bounds to our difference-in-differences matching estimator. We then refine the bounds and provide conditions under which they depend only on the products’ own- and cross-price elasticities. We find that even accounting for potential substitution, there was a significant decrease in the sales of Saab following its filing for administration. These findings are robust to a number of robustness checks and alternative hypotheses.
    Keywords: Administration, Automobiles, Bankruptcy effects, Brand loyalty, Bounds, Consumer reaction, Consumer response, Difference-in-differences, Durable goods, Financial distress, Treatment effects.
    JEL: C21 D12 D22 G32 G33 L62
    Date: 2016–07–01
  160. By: Sevrin Waights
    Abstract: I investigate the welfare effect of conservation areas that preserve historic districts by regulating development. Such regulation may improve quality of life but does so by reducing housing productivity - the efficiency with which inputs (land and non-land) are converted into housing services. Using a unique panel dataset for English cities and an instrumental variable approach, I find that cities with more conservation areas have higher house prices for given land values and building costs (lower housing productivity) and higher house prices for given wages (higher quality of life). The overall welfare impact is found to be negative.
    Keywords: housing, planning, regulation, historic preservation, construction, land
    JEL: H89 L51 L74 D62 R21 R31 R38 R52 R58
    Date: 2016–07
  161. By: Lyu, Wanning; Yuan Li; Dabo Guan; Hongyan Zhao; Qiang Zhang; Zhu Liu
  162. By: Magali Aubert (UMR MOISA - Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - INRA Montpellier - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] - CIHEAM - Centre International des Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes)
    Abstract: A Short Food Supply Chain is a marketing channel whose developments answers the emerging demand of both public policy and consumers’ requirement mainly in terms of quality. Based on the exhaustive census of all French farms in 2010, the aim of the article is to understand what are the individual and structural determinants of selling through a short food supply chain for producers: are there some factors leading to adopt such marketing channel? To answer this question, the resource-based view is mobilized. This theory highlights the relationship between the diversification of marketing channels and the individual characteristics of farmers and the structural characteristics of their farm. Since the choice observed is a dichotomous one, a logit model is implemented to identify determinants of short food supply chain adoption. This analysis lets underline differences observed between farmers who never sell though a short supply chain from the others in terms of both individual and structural specificities. Econometric results highlight that selling through this marketing channel is a commercial strategy implemented by younger and more educated farmers. Moreover, these farmers are installed on smaller farms. Even smaller, the implementation of a short food supply chain requires relatively more workforce. As a matter of fact, implementing such marketing channel translates into a need of workforce that is higher than for others farms and more precisely permanent workforce.
    Keywords: short food supply chain,2010 agricultural census,adoption,resource-based view
    Date: 2015–12–10
  163. By: Antoni Zabalza
    Abstract: Este artículo propone una reforma del sistema de financiación autonómica que resuelve los problemas de equidad que hoy presenta el modelo vigente y a la vez consigue un mayor nivel de responsabilidad fiscal por parte de las comunidades autónomas. El modelo propuesto se basa en el principio de equidad, según el cual para una política tributaria igual a la de referencia, las comunidades deberían tener los mismos recursos por unidad de necesidad. Tres elementos significativos de la propuesta son: En primer lugar, la introducción de la Compensación Transitoria de Adaptación (CTA), para permitir una aproximación gradual al resultado final de la reforma. En segundo lugar, un mecanismo de incentivación de la recaudación del IRPF, como refuerzo al incentivo ya hoy existente sobre la totalidad de la recaudación tributaria. Y en tercer lugar, una nueva regla de actualización del sistema que mantiene la equidad horizontal a lo largo del tiempo y aísla los recursos puestos a disposición de las comunidades de los avatares del ciclo económico.
    Date: 2016–07
  164. By: Dalton, Patricio (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Gonzalez Jimenez, Victor (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Noussair, Charles (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)
    Abstract: We study whether poverty can induce affective states that decrease productivity. In a controlled laboratory setting, we find that subjects randomly assigned to a treatment, in which they view a video featuring individuals that live in extreme poverty, exhibit lower subsequent productivity compared to subjects assigned to a control treatment. Questionnaire responses, as well as facial recognition software, provide quantitative measures of the affective state evoked by the two treatments. Subjects exposed to images of poverty experience a more negative affective state than those in the control treatment. Further analyses show that individuals in a more positive emotional state exhibit less of a treatment effect. Also, those who exhibit greater attentiveness upon viewing the poverty video are less productive. The results are consistent with the notion that exposure to poverty can induce a psychological state in individuals that adversely affects productivity.
    Keywords: poverty; productivity; mood; emotions; limited attention; experiments
    JEL: D03 J24 C91
    Date: 2016
  165. By: Ana Maria Santacreu (Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis and); Fernando Leibovici (York University)
    Abstract: This paper studies the role of trade openness for the design of monetary policy. We extend a standard small open economy model of monetary policy to capture cyclical fluctuations of international trade flows, and parameterize it to match key features of the data. We find that accounting for trade fluctuations matters for monetary policy: when the monetary authority follows a Taylor rule, inflation and the output gap are more volatile. Moreover, we find that the volatility of these variables is significantly higher when the central bank follows the optimal policy based on a model that cannot account for international trade fluctuations.
    Date: 2016
  166. By: Razvan GRECU (Student, Masters Financial Management, Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest)
    Abstract: This article addresses a whole evolution of the European integration - deepening, broadening, reforming, relations with third parties - precisely from this perspective of the efforts to obtain more important positions in the global competition. Used after the 1950s, the term globalization is present in all major languages of the world, be it the "globalization" for the English speakers, "mondialisation" for the French speakers, "globalizzazione" for the Italian speakers, "Globlisierung" for the German speakers or "Quan Quai Hua" for the Chinese speakers. The global attribute has a common use in phrases like "global market", "global institutions", "global communications". The widespread use of the term, both in everyday language and in the academic world, is produced since about the 1970s. However, the emergence of the industrial capitalism also marks the presence in the intellectual discourses of the references to a series of events similar to those that today retain the attention in the globalization context: the reduction of time and space as a result of the evolution and the development of transportation and communication, which substantially increases the possibilities of human interaction. It is, however, difficult to trace the border between cause and effect in terms of the globalization process. The world economies evolutions in regards to the trade, production, finances, led on one hand to the global nature of the economy and, on the other hand have influenced and boosted each other.
    Keywords: globalization, regionalization
    JEL: F60
    Date: 2016–04
  167. By: Singh, Prakarsh (Amherst College)
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence for informational spillovers within urban slums in Chandigarh, India. I identify three groups, a treatment group, a neighboring spillover group, and a non-adjacent pure control group. Mothers of children (aged 3-6 years) enrolled in government day-care centers are given recipe books in the treatment group to reduce malnutrition in their children. Spillovers to neighboring (untreated) mothers can be through social learning or imitation. Results from a difference-in-differences analysis show that nutritional knowledge measured through a quiz increases among neighboring untreated mothers relative to a control group. Neighboring mothers exhibit learning spillovers, changes in dietary behavior and a reduction in food expenditure regardless of their level of literacy. Spillovers not only raise the cost effectiveness of health information programs but are important to consider when designing an experiment as causal effects of treatments can be attenuated if the spillover group is used as a control group.
    Keywords: spillovers, malnutrition, India
    JEL: D62 D83 I15 I18 I38
    Date: 2016–07
  168. By: Pieter Gautier (VU University Amsterdam); Guido Menzio (University of Pennsylvania); Bjoern Bruegemann (VU University Amsterdam)
    Abstract: The paper revisits the problem of wage bargaining between a firm and multiple workers. We show that the Subgame Perfect Equilibrium of the extensive-form game proposed by Stole and Zwiebel (1996a) does not imply a profile of wages and profits that coincides with the Shapley values as claimed in their classic paper. We propose an alternative extensive-form bargaining game, the Rolodex Game, that follows a simple and realistic protocol and that, under some mild restrictions, admits a unique Subgame Perfect Equilibrium generating a profile of wages and profits that are equal to the Shapley values. The vast applied literature that refers to the Stole and Zwiebel game to give a game-theoretic foundation to the use of the Shapley values as the outcome of the bargain between a firm and multiple workers should instead refer to the Rolodex game.
    Date: 2016
  169. By: Jungjun Choi (School of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul); In Choi (School of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul)
    Abstract: This paper studies maximum likelihood estimation of autoregressive models of order 1 with a near unit root and Cauchy errors. Autoregressive models with an intercept and with an intercept and a linear time trend are also considered. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the autoregressive coeffcient is n^(3/2)-consistent with n denoting the sample size and has a mixture-normal dis- tribution in the limit. The MLE for the scale parameter of Cauchy distribution is n^(1/2)-consistent and its limiting distribution is normal. The MLEs of the intercept and the linear time trend are n^(1/2)- and n^(3/2)-consistent, respectively. It is also shown that the t-statistic for a unit root based on the MLE has a standard normal distribution in the limit. In addition, finite sample properties of the MLE are compared with those of the least square estimator (LSE). It is found that the MLE is more effcient than the LSE when the errors have a Cauchy distribution or a distribution which is a mixture of Cauchy and normal distributions. It is also shown that empirical power of the MLE-based t-test for a unit root is much higher than that of the Dickey-Fuller t-test.
    Keywords: autoregressive model, near unit root, Cauchy distribution, maxi- mum likelihood estimator, infi?nite variance
    Date: 2016–07
  170. By: Holden, Tom D.
    Abstract: We present the first necessary and sufficient conditions for there to be a unique perfect-foresight solution to an otherwise linear dynamic model with occasionally binding constraints, given a fixed terminal condition. We derive further conditions on the existence of a solution in such models. These results give determinacy conditions for models with occasionally binding constraints, much as Blanchard and Kahn (1980) did for linear models. In an application, we show that widely used New Keynesian models with endogenous states possess multiple perfect foresight equilibrium paths when there is a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, even when agents believe that the central bank will eventually attain its long-run, positive inflation target. This illustrates that a credible long-run inflation target does not render the Taylor principle sufficient for determinacy in the presence of the zero lower bound. However, we show that price level targeting does restore determinacy in these situations.
    Keywords: occasionally binding constraints,zero lower bound,existence,uniqueness,price targeting,Taylor principle,linear complementarity problem
    JEL: C62 E3 E4 E5
    Date: 2016
  171. By: Corinne Luu
    Abstract: Canada’s productivity performance has lagged that of many other OECD countries, despite some improvement in recent years. One measure to enhance overall efficiency would be to strengthen competition on the domestic market to drive future multi-factor productivity improvements. The potential gains are large: about a half a percent per year over a fairly long horizon. This paper focuses on increasing competition in network sectors, including energy, telecommunication services and broadcasting, and transportation, which are key inputs to production in the broader economy. Improving regulatory conditions, efficiency and/or cost competitiveness could yield more productive outcomes in these sectors, as well as in downstream industries. Competition could also be increased by lowering barriers to interprovincial trade and the movement of labour, which act to fragment Canada’s already small domestic market. To this end, reforms of the Agreement on Internal Trade and measures to reduce sectoral barriers to trade are also discussed. This Working Paper relates to the 2016 OECD Economic Survey of Canada ( Concurrence dans les industries de réseau et renforcement du marché intérieur au Canada La productivité canadienne est inférieure à celle de nombreux pays de l’OCDE malgré quelques progrès ces dernières années. Il serait possible d’accroître l’efficience globale en renforçant la concurrence sur le marché intérieur afin de favoriser les futurs gains de productivité globale. Ces gains sont importants, de l’ordre d’un demi pour cent par an sur une période plutôt longue. Ce document porte principalement sur l’intensification de la concurrence dans les industries de réseau, comme l’énergie, les télécommunications, la diffusion audiovisuelle et les transports, qui jouent un rôle essentiel dans le processus de production de l’ensemble de l’économie. L’amélioration de la réglementation, l’augmentation de l’efficience et/ou le renforcement de la compétitivité-coût pourraient accroître la productivité dans ces secteurs, ainsi que dans les secteurs d’aval. La concurrence pourrait également être intensifiée par la réduction des obstacles aux échanges entre provinces et à la mobilité de la main-d’oeuvre, qui fragmentent un marché intérieur déjà petit. Ce document examine donc également les réformes possibles de l’Accord sur le commerce intérieur et les mesures visant à réduire les obstacles sectoriels aux échanges. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE du Canada 2016 ( ique-canada.htm)
    Keywords: productivity, network industries, competition, regulation, integration, productivité, concurrence, intégration, industries de réseaux, réglementation
    JEL: J44 L1 L3 L5 L66 L9 O43 Q18
    Date: 2016–08–03
  172. By: Federico Esposito (Yale University)
    Abstract: Firms face considerable uncertainty about consumers' demand. In presence of incomplete financial markets, entrepreneurs may not be able to insure against unexpected demand fluctuations. The key insight of my paper is that firms can hedge demand risk through geographical diversification. I first develop a general equilibrium trade model characterized by stochastic demand and risk-averse entrepreneurs, who exploit the imperfect correlation of demand across countries to lower the variance of their total sales. I show that: i) a firm's exporting decision does not obey a hierarchical structure as in standard models with fixed costs, because it depends on the global diversification strategy of the firm, and ii) the intensity of trade flows to a market are affected by its risk-return profile. To quantify the risk diversification benefits of international trade I calibrate the model with the Method of Moments, using Portuguese firm-level data. One of the counterfactual exercises reveals that the welfare gains from trade can be significantly higher than the gains predicted by models neglecting firm level risk. After a trade liberalization, risk-averse firms boost exports to countries offering better diversification benefits. Hence, in these markets competition among firms is stronger, lowering the price level more and raising welfare gains.
    Date: 2016
  173. By: Aleksandra Masłowska-Jokinen; Anna Matysek-Jędrych
    Abstract: The main objective of the study is to identify both similarities and differences among seemingly homogenous countries (OECD) in respect to their safety net de-sign and a supervisory role played by central banks. This goal is achieved using an extensive data set, describing financial supervisory institutions between 2000-2013, hence including recent modifications in response to global financial crisis. The data show the existence of similar supervisory standards in both crisis- and non-crisis countries. Whether it is a presence of single supervisory authority, allocation of macroprudential responsibilities in a country, or implementing capital adequacy re-quirements, while working well in certain countries, did not make others immune to a crisis. At the same time, data show that non-crisis countries implemented stricter rules than those in crisis-countries, and that this process started way before the burst of the Global Financial Crisis. Often, these more rigorous rules were observed in countries with past crisis experience, indicating an importance of learning mecha-nism. With empirical analysis, we prove that certain basic safety net elements (oblig-atory reserve requirements or sufficient coverage of deposit insurance scheme), as well as high level of central bank financial transparency are negatively correlated with the speed of credit growth. Based on our results and discussion on previous empirical analyses we give recommendations for institutions involved in the financial safety net.
    Keywords: central bank, financial regulation, financial supervision, monetary pol-icy, financial crisis, macroprudential policy, safety net
    JEL: E52 E58 G01 G18 G21 H12
    Date: 2016
  174. By: Badawi, Adam B.; Chen, Daniel L.
    Abstract: We collect data on the record of every action in over one thousand cases involving public companies from 2004 to 2011 in the Delaware Court of Chancery, which is the leading court for corporate law disputes in the United States. We use these data to estimate how markets respond to Delaware litigation events and characteristics such as case initiations, procedural motions, case quality, and judge identity. We find that negative abnormal returns are associated with the filing of derivative and contract cases, but we observe little effect associated with the filing of the average merger challenge. When we include measures of case quality, we see that higher quality cases increase the expected impact of derivative and contract litigation on firm value. We also develop evidence that tactics associated with multijurisdictional litigation are associated with a weakened impact of litigation on firm value. This evidence is consistent with the belief that the presence of litigation in another jurisdiction allows defense lawyers to bid down competing groups of plaintiffs’ lawyers during settlement negotiations. Finally, we show that abnormal returns are not associated with information on judicial assignment at the time of case filing, nor are they associated with judge identity at case resolution. These results suggest that the judicial impact on shareholder wealth at the time of judicial assignment and the time of case termination is too small to be statistically detected.
    Date: 2016–07
  175. By: Satoshi Nakano; Kazuhiko Nishimura
    Abstract: A favorable population schedule for the entire potential human family is sought, under the overlapping generations framework, by treating population as a control variable in a dynamic social welfare maximization context. The Benthamite and Rawlsian social welfare functions are examined, with zero future discounting, while infinity in the maximand is circumvented by introducing the depletion of energy resources and its postponement through technological innovations. The model is formulated as a free-horizon dynamic planning problem, solved via a non-linear optimizer. Under exploratory scenarios, we visualize the potential trade-offs between the two welfare criteria.
    Date: 2016–08
  176. By: Enrique A. López-Enciso (Banco de la República de Colombia); Hernando Vargas-Herrera (Banco de la República de Colombia); Norberto Rodríguez-Niño (Banco de la República de Colombia)
    Abstract: Con el fin de la banda cambiaria en Colombia en 1999, la estrategia de inflación objetivo (IO) se convirtió en el marco de política monetaria implementado por la Junta Directiva del Banco de la República, el cual aún sigue vigente. Este trabajo presenta un recuento histórico del proceso de adopción de esa estrategia en Colombia, así como las mejoras a nivel institucional y técnico que fueron necesarias para adoptarla, además se explica el desempeño que éste régimen de política monetaria tuvo frente a la crisis financiera del 2008. También se hace una reflexión sobre su utilización en el mundo y se sugiere, mediante modelos ANOVA y ARIMAX, que la IO ha sido efectiva reduciendo la inflación. Classification JEL: E31, E52, E58
    Keywords: Inflación objetivo, banda cambiaria, crisis financiera
    Date: 2016–08
  177. By: Paulo César Morceiro
    Abstract: Após duas décadas e meia de baixo crescimento, o Brasil voltou a crescer de modo continuado e acima da economia mundial durante a década de 2004-2013. Esse crescimento foi puxado pela demanda doméstica e beneficiou diversos setores da economia, principalmente da indústria de transformação. Observou-se significativo crescimento da produção e do emprego manufatureiros no período, com aumento da participação das indústrias de alta e média-alta intensidade tecnológica. Entretanto, parcela substantiva do crescimento da demanda vazou para o exterior na forma de importações em vários setores industriais, com maior intensidade nos setores de alta e média-alta tecnologia. No período, a manufatura brasileira perdeu bastante competitividade, apresentou crescimento negativo da produtividade do trabalho e registrou déficits comerciais na maioria dos setores, inclusive naqueles tradicionalmente superavitários. O artigo também mostra que setores importantes do ponto de vista tecnológico estão caminhando da transformação para a simples montagem e alguns até para a maquila, além de indicar que a indústria é integrada às cadeias globais de valor pelo lado das importações.
    Keywords: sectoral demand leakages; labor productivity; manufacturing industry; industrial competitiveness; sectoral analysis
    JEL: L6 O14 O40
    Date: 2016–07–28
  178. By: Maixe-Altes, J. Carles; Mourelle, Estefanía
    Abstract: This work investigates the relationships between the retail payment system, monetary aggregates and economic activity in Spain. This approach is taken from a new perspective: that of the transformations that have been favored by ICT in the payment system. The methodology used is based on cointegration analysis and the estimation of error correction models. Likewise, an indicator of cashless transactions is proposed in order to illustrate whether a particular society can be classified as “cashless”. We use the Johansen procedure to unveil long-run relationships that are integrated in the real sector, the monetary system and the value of cashless transactions. We prove the relevant (and direct) impact of changes in the monetary system and national income on the value of cashless transactions. Using error correction models, we observe that the most important short-run relationships in terms of the value of cashless transactions are those related to the real sector of the economy, while with regard to monetary variables, the relevance is focused on the more liquid sectors. The empirical results evidence the intensive progress of the cashless society in Spain, where the banking sector, the regulatory changes and ICT development have played a key role.
    Keywords: Cashless payments, money supply, ICT
    JEL: E42 E51 G20 N2
    Date: 2016–07–16
  179. By: Olga Gorelova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andrey Lovakov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The literature on the consequences of academic inbreeding shows ambiguous results: some papers show that inbreeding positively influences research productivity, measured in the quantity and quality of publications, while others show the opposite effect. There are contradictory results both in studies of different countries and within countries. Such a variety of results makes it impossible to transfer the findings from one academic system to another, and in Russia this problem has been under explored. This paper focuses on the relationship between inbreeding and publication activity among Russian faculty members. The results, using Russian data from the Changing Academic Profession survey, showed no substantial effect of academic inbreeding on research productivity. Inbred and non-inbred faculty members do not differ substantially in terms of the probability of having publications, or how many, although for inbreds such probability is slightly higher. These results are robust for different operationalizations of inbreeding and measures of publication activity. However the absence of significant differences in the number of publications may not mean the absence of a difference in their quality. The possible explanations and limitations of the standard measures of research productivity are discussed.
    Keywords: Academic profession, Academic inbreeding, Research productivity, Faculty members, Russian higher education, Changing Academic Profession
    JEL: I23 I28
    Date: 2016
  180. By: Henderson, Daniel J. (University of Alabama); Simar, Léopold (Université catholique de Louvain); Wang, Le (University of Alabama)
    Abstract: We examine the educational production function and efficiency of public school districts in Illinois. Using nonparametric kernel methods, we find that most traditional schooling inputs are irrelevant in determining test scores (even in a very general setting). Property tax caps are the only relevant factor that is related to districts' financial constraints and have predominantly negative associations with test scores. Therefore, insufficient resources may be partially responsible for the lack of growth in test scores. For most other relevant inputs, we find substantial heterogeneity in the returns, which helps reconcile some of the puzzling results in the literature. We further find that there exist inefficiencies in school districts. Moreover, the level of test scores, commonly used as a measure of school effectiveness, (while related) differs substantially from our efficiency scores, and standard parametric approaches drastically underestimate school efficiency. We discuss the policy implications of our results.
    Keywords: educational production function, irrelevant inputs, nonparametric kernel, panel data, property tax caps, school inputs, stochastic frontier analysis, student achievement, technical efficiency
    JEL: C14 C44 I21
    Date: 2016–07
  181. By: Firdaus Hafidz (Academic Unit of Health Economics, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds); Tim Ensor (Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds); Sandy Tubeuf (Academic Unit of Health Economics, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds)
    Abstract: Total health care costs have dramatically increased in Indonesia and health facilities consume the largest share of health resources. This study aims to provide a better understanding of the characteristics of the best performing health facilities and identify potential drivers of service efficiency. We employ four cross-sectional national Indonesian datasets for 2011 and analysed 200 hospitals and 95 health centres. We first apply the Pabón Lasso Model to assess the relative performance of health facilities in terms of bed occupancy rate and the number of admission per bed; the model groups health facilities into four sectors representing different levels of productivity. We then use a step-down costing method to estimate the cost per outpatient visit, inpatient, and bed-days in hospitals and health centres. We also apply bivariate analyses, including difference and correlation tests to identify the internal and external factors affecting health facility performance. Forty percent of hospitals and 33 percent of health centres were located in the high performing sector of the Pabón Lasso model. A wide variation in unit costs across health facilities present a basis for benchmarking and identifying relatively efficient units. The major components of cost were human resources and materials such as pharmaceuticals and medical supplies. Combining the unit cost analysis and Pabón Lasso model, we find that health facility performance is likely affected by both internal (size and capacity, financing, ownership, accreditation status, and staff availability) and external factors (economic status, market competition, population education level, location, and insurance coverage). Our study demonstrates that it is feasible to identify the best performing health facilities and provide information about how to improve efficiency using simplistic methods.
    Keywords: Efficiency, performance, health facilities, costing study, Pabón Lasso model
    JEL: I10 D24
    Date: 2016
  182. By: Michael Ehrmann; Jonathan Talmi
    Abstract: Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update the earlier text with only small changes. This way, it is straightforward to compare statements and see how the central bank’s thinking has evolved. This paper studies to what extent such similarity in central bank statements matters for the reception of their content in financial markets. Using the case of the Bank of Canada (the G7 central bank that had to rely the least on unconventional monetary policy following the global financial crisis and has therefore broadly continued standard monetary policy communications), the paper shows that press releases with larger differences in wording lead to higher volatility in financial markets, suggesting that their content is more difficult to absorb. At the same time, while press releases that are similar to the previous one generate less market volatility, once their wording is updated, volatility increases substantially.
    Keywords: Central bank research, Financial markets, Interest rates
    JEL: E43 E52 E58
    Date: 2016
  183. By: Mohamed Arouri (Centre Clermontois de Recherche en Gestion et Management (CRCGM)); Adel Ben Youssef (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS); Cuong Nguyen (National Economic University, Hanoi, Vietnam)
    Abstract: We investigate whether there are racial and ethnic disparities in children's education in Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam. We find that in all four countries, and especially Vietnam, children from small ethnic groups have lower education attainment and cognitive ability. The gap in educational attainment and cognitive ability among ethnic children is larger than the gap in school enrolment, and the gap tends to be wider for older children. Using the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, we find that the main contribution to the gap in education between children from small ethnic groups and children from large ethnic groups in India, Peru and Vietnam is the difference in endowments (i.e., characteristics of children and their families) rather than a in the coefficients of endowments. However, in Ethiopia, the difference in the coefficients contributes more than the difference in endowments to the gap in education. Child health, parental education, household expenditure and an urban environment are important variables for explaining the gap in education between children from small and large ethnic groups.
    Keywords: Children's education, racial disparities, low-income countries
    JEL: J13 J15 I21
    Date: 2016–08
  184. By: Belot, Michèle (University of Edinburgh); Kircher, Philipp (University of Edinburgh); Muller, Paul (University of Gothenburg)
    Abstract: We develop and evaluate experimentally a novel tool that redesigns the job search process by providing tailored advice at low cost. We invited job seekers to our computer facilities for 12 consecutive weekly sessions to search for real jobs on our web interface. For half, instead of relying on their own search criteria, we use readily available labor market data to display relevant alternative occupations and associated jobs. This significantly broadens the set of jobs they consider and significantly increases their job interviews. Effects are strongest for participants who otherwise search narrowly and have been unemployed for a few months.
    Keywords: online job search, occupational broadness, search design
    JEL: D83 J62 C93
    Date: 2016–07
  185. By: Juan Pablo Nicolini (Minneapolis Fed)
    Abstract: We study a model with heterogeneous producers that face collateral and cash in advance constraints. A tightening of the collateral constraint results in a credit-crunch generated recession that reproduces several features of the financial crisis that unraveled in 2007. The model can suitable be used to study the effects on the main macroeconomic variables and of alternative policies following the credit crunch. The policy implications are in sharp contrast with the prevalent view in most Central Banks, based on the New Keynesian explanation of the liquidity trap.
    Date: 2016
  186. By: Lans, Cheryl
    Abstract: This review paper discusses the program called Worldwide Opportunities on Organic Farms (WWOOF), in North America, as an example of a subset of the care economy in which volunteers contribute to farm care. Human care is partly direct (some childcare, kitchen duties and other housework), but mostly indirect, in that farm families get time off. This review expands on previous work that considered farms in Ontario, Canada as spaces of care and farmwomen as the carers. It critiques other research that claims WWOOFers do not replace local labor and that WWOOF represents an idealistic and ethical space potentially corrupted by tourists.
    Keywords: WWOOF; Organic farms; Volunteers; Caring economy
    JEL: Q12
    Date: 2016–05–31
  187. By: Geloso, Vincent; Kufenko, Vadim; Prettner, Klaus
    Abstract: We examine the role of demographic change for regional convergence in living standards in Canada. Due to economies of scale within a family, decreasing household size has an impact on convergence in living standards, while per capita income convergence remains unaffected. We find that, by relying on per capita income, the dispersion of living standards between Canadian regions is overestimated prior to the 1990s and underestimated thereafter. As a consequence, relying on income per capita results in overestimating the speed of convergence in living standards.
    Keywords: regional convergence,living standards,demographic change,household size
    JEL: O47 J12 N12
    Date: 2016
  188. By: Lorenzo CAMPONOVO (University of St. Gallen); Olivier SCAILLET (University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute); Fabio TROJANI (University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute)
    Abstract: This paper contains comments on Nonparametric Tail Risk, Stock Returns and the Macroeconomy.
    Keywords: Tail Risk, Risk Factor, Risk-Neutral Probability, Prediction of Market Returns, Economic Predictability
    JEL: G12 G13 G17
  189. By: Dean Baker
    Abstract: There has been considerable interest in financial transactions taxes (FTTs) in the United States and other wealthy countries in the years since the financial crisis. An FTT can be a way to both raise a large amount of revenue and also rein in the financial sector. This report examines the evidence on the potential for raising revenue through an FTT, its impact on the economy, and also the possibility of using the revenue to defray in particular the cost of higher education. This report was published by The Century Foundation's Bernard L. Schwartz Rediscovering Government Initiative.
    JEL: G G2 G28
    Date: 2016–07
  190. By: David Cayla (Granem - Groupe de Recherche ANgevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Agrocampus Ouest - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage)
    Abstract: Paru en 2011 aux États-Unis, le livre de David Graeber a suscité de nombreux commentaires tant par son contenu que par la personnalité militante de son auteur. Mais ce livre est loin de n’être qu’un plaidoyer pour l’annulation des dettes. Sous son apparence accessible de « best seller » il s’agit en fait d’un livre très difficile dont le sujet est beaucoup plus ambitieux que son titre ne le laisse paraître. De fait, le livre s’apparente à une ambitieuse entreprise de démystification d’un certain nombre de « vérités » économiques sur la nature et l’origine de la monnaie, sur les liens entre marchés et États, sur le statut de l’économie comme science, et bien sûr, sur la nature et la signification anthropologique de la dette. Le piège du livre de Graeber est donc que la forme simple et faussement accessible du style tend à masquer aussi bien la complexité des concepts et des raisonnements dans les parties théoriques que les faiblesses de l’argumentation qui accompagnent les parties plus descriptives.
    Keywords: anthropologie,David Graeber,dette,Histoire,Michel Aglietta,monnaie,théorie de la régulation
    Date: 2015
  191. By: Morales, Alvaro (Amherst College); Singh, Prakarsh (Amherst College)
    Abstract: We investigate whether violence occurring outside the confines of a home can alter intra-household violence inter-generationally. This paper is the first to explore whether exposure to violence from an armed conflict affects the later use of physical punishment as a child discipline method. Our identification strategy relies on the spatial and temporal variation of the Peruvian civil conflict that occurred between 1980 and 2000. We find that a mother exposed to an additional one hundred violent conflict-related events in her district is 3.4-3.8 percentage points less likely to physically punish her children. This effect is equivalent in magnitude to an additional 10 years of education. We find suggestive evidence that the conflict could have increased parenting knowledge and support. Communities that experienced higher levels of conflict violence saw greater increases in social spending and had more health resources in the post-conflict period. Additionally, we find women's conflict exposure is associated with a higher likelihood of accessing these resources.
    Keywords: domestic violence, civil conflict, physical child abuse, Peru
    JEL: J13 D1 J16
    Date: 2016–07
  192. By: Chen, Daniel L.; Horton, John
    Abstract: In some online labor markets, workers are paid by the task, choose what tasks to work on, and have little or no interaction with their (usually anonymous) buyer/employer. These markets look like true spot markets for tasks rather than markets for employment. Despite appearances, we find via a field experiment that workers act more like parties to an employment contract: workers quickly form wage reference points and react negatively to proposed wage cuts by quitting. However, they can be mollified with “reasonable” justifications for why wages are being cut, highlighting the importance of fairness considerations in their decision making. We find some evidence that “unreasonable” justifications for wage cuts reduce subsequent work quality. We also find that not explicitly presenting the worker with a decision about continuing to work eliminates “quits,” with no apparent reduction in work quality. One interpretation for this finding is that workers have a strong expectation that they are party to a quasi-employment relationship where terms are not changed, and the default behavior is to continue working.
    Keywords: Economics of IS; Electronic Commerce; Field Experiments; IT and new organizational form
    Date: 2016–07
  193. By: Andrea Kunnert (WIFO)
    Abstract: Housing affordability problems are expected to increase for Austrian households because housing costs have been rising dynamically over the last years. Households who moved more recently are expected to be affected the most. Previous research has identified younger households as also being prone to housing affordability problems because they have relatively lower incomes. There is a strong correlation between the year of move-in and age – young households comprise a large share of households who moved recently. This paper applies the tailored ratio and residual income approach to Austrian households for 2014 to analyse housing affordability by age group and also by year of move-in. To identify whether age (lifecycle) or prevailing market conditions cause affordability problems, affordability measures are compared for age groups at different intervals of move-in. The results suggest that both effects are at work: young households who moved recently have the highest incidence of affordability problems compared to older households. For other age groups, affordability problems also mostly occur for households who moved recently. The price distortion between below-market rents due to long-term contracts and market rents becomes more pronounced. This adversely affects newcomers and dis-incentivises mobility of incumbents.
    Keywords: housing affordability, ratio approach, residual income approach, lifecycle, Austria
    Date: 2016–08–01
  194. By: Jan Kuklinski; Panagiotis Papaioannou; Kevin Tyloo
    Abstract: We discuss the pricing methodology for Bonus Certificates and Barrier Reverse-Convertible Structured Products. Pricing for a European barrier condition is straightforward for products of both types and depends on an efficient interpolation of observed market option pricing. Pricing products We discuss the pricing methodology for Bonus Certificates and Barrier Reverse-Convertible Structured Products. Pricing for a European barrier condition is straightforward for products of both types and depends on an efficient interpolation of observed market option pricing. Pricing products with an American barrier condition requires stochastic modelling. We show that for typical market parameters, this stochastic pricing problem can be systematically reduced to evaluating only one fairly simple stochastic parameter being the asymmetry of hitting the barrier. Eventually, pricing Bonus Certificates and Barrier Reverse Convertibles with an American barrier condition, shows to be dependent on stochastic modelling only within a range of $\pm\frac{2}{3}$ of accuracy - e.g. within this accuracy limitation we can price these products without stochastic modelling. We show that the remaining price component is weakly dependent on the stochastic models. Combining these together, we prove to have established an almost model independent pricing procedure for Bonus Certificates and Barrier Reverse-Convertible Structured Products with American barrier conditions.
    Date: 2016–07
  195. By: Benedix, Ulf
    Abstract: Vor dem Hintergrund des demografischen Wandels und sich abzeichnender partieller Fachkräfteengpässe bietet Aufstiegsmobilität durch Qualifizierung Vorteile für Unternehmen und Beschäftigte. Höherqualifizierung von Geringqualifizierten kann zur Deckung des Fachkräftebedarfs beitragen. Arbeitnehmer und Arbeitnehmerinnen können durch Höherqualifizierung ihre berufliche Position verbessern; für Geringqualifizierte kann Qualifizierung einen Weg aus prekärer Beschäftigung eröffnen. Ausbau und Nutzung dieser Chancen setzt vor allem eine entsprechend ausgerichtete betriebliche Personalpolitik voraus. Es wurde untersucht, welchen Stellenwert Höherqualifizierung und Aufstiegsmobilität in der Personalentwicklung von Unternehmen haben und welche betrieblichen und überbetrieblichen Qualifizierungsstrukturen bereits nutzbar bzw. auszubauen sind. Dabei wurden hemmende und förderliche Bedingungen identifiziert und Handlungsempfehlungen für die Betriebe und die Region entwickelt. Die Logistik bildet ein regional wichtiges Beschäftigungsfeld und wird weiterhin als Wachstumsbranche eingeschätzt. Darüber hinaus wird sie als Wirtschaftsbereich gehandelt, in dem niedrigschwellige Eintritte in Beschäftigung und in Qualifizierungsketten möglich erscheinen. [...]
    Date: 2016
  196. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: Good corporate governance practices reduce vulnerability to financial crises, reinforce property rights, reduce the cost of capital, and lead to greater capital market development—all sought by investors. In this fourth round of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Corporate Governance initiative of the Asian Development Bank and the ASEAN Capital Markets Forum, over 500 top publicly listed companies from six ASEAN countries were assessed as to rights of shareholders, equitable treatment of shareholders, role of stakeholders, disclosure and transparency, and responsibilities of the board. Corporate governance in ASEAN countries collectively continues to improve, with international best practices being incorporated into national corporate governance blueprints and strategies.
    Keywords: ASEAN, financial crises, capital market, shareholders, corporate governance
    Date: 2016–06
  197. By: Agostino, Mariarosaria; Nifo, Annamaria; Trivieri, Francesco; Vecchione, Gaetano
    Abstract: This paper aims to contribute to the debate on the determinants of differentials in firms’ productivity. We test the hypothesis that macro factors, especially the quality of local institutions, play a role in explaining firm productivity in Italy. To this end, following Fӓre et al. (1994), we decompose the Malmquist index of total factor productivity (TFP) change for approximately 7,500 manufacturing small and medium-sized firms, and we proxy province-level institutional quality using the IQI index (Nifo and Vecchione, 2014). The results of our stimations suggest that better local institutions might help firms better combine inputs, approach the optimal size, and ultimately be more productive.
    Keywords: TFP, Malmquist index, Institutional quality, Italian manufacturing SMEs
    JEL: C31 C33 D24 L60 O43 O47 O50 R11
    Date: 2016–05–01
  198. By: Mathieu Cambou (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne); Damir Filipović (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - Swiss Finance Institute)
    Abstract: The replicating portfolio (RP) approach to the calculation of capital for life insurance portfolios is an industry standard. The RP is obtained from projecting the terminal loss of discounted asset liability cash flows on a set of factors generated by a family of financial instruments that can be efficiently simulated. We provide the mathematical foundations and a novel dynamic and path-dependent RP approach for real-world and risk-neutral sampling. We show that the RP approach yields asymptotically consistent capital estimators. We illustrate the tractability of the RP approach by two numerical examples.
    Keywords: asset-liability portfolio, chaos expansion, replicating portfolio, solvency capital
    JEL: C61 C63 D81 G22
  199. By: Praveen Kolli; Mykhaylo Shkolnikov
    Abstract: We consider systems of diffusion processes ("particles") interacting through their ranks (also referred to as "rank-based models" in the mathematical finance literature). We show that, as the number of particles becomes large, the process of fluctuations of the empirical cumulative distribution functions converges to the solution of a linear parabolic SPDE with additive noise. The coefficients in the limiting SPDE are determined by the hydrodynamic limit of the particle system which, in turn, can be described by the porous medium PDE. The result opens the door to a thorough investigation of large equity markets and investment therein. In the course of the proof we also derive quantitative propagation of chaos estimates for the particle system.
    Date: 2016–08
  200. By: Rafael Barquín (Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Spain); Pedro Pérez (Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Spain); Basilio Sanz (Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Spain)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to identify variables that could explain Spanish urban literacy growth between 1860 and 1910. We have made use of census data and other public sources. One of the main obstacles is to find appropriate city definition criteria. We have addressed this issue by resorting to the relevant bibliography. A priori, expected key variables are the Church influence, whether or not the city is a provincial capital, the access to the railway system, the mining and industrial activity and, above all, the literacy programs undertaken by Liberal governments. Results of several econometric models - panel data based considering cross and time fixed effects - show firstly, that local idiosyncratic factors were sizeable. Secondly, in the literacy process the educational offer was more decisive than the personal economic incentives, especially among girls. And finally, that Church influence largely explains the literacy levels at the middle of 19th century, as well as its decline in the second half of that century.
    Keywords: Literacy, Schooling, Church, Panel Data Models
    JEL: I25 N33 C23
    Date: 2016–07
  201. By: Seah, Kelvin (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: This study examines how exposure to immigrant students affects the academic achievement of native students in the three largest immigrant-receiving countries – United States, Australia, and Canada. Using a large cross-country dataset, variation in the share of immigrant children between different grade levels within schools is exploited to identify the impact of immigrant peers. I find that exposure to immigrant children has dissimilar effects on native students' achievements across the three countries. While exposure has a positive impact on Australian natives, it has a negative impact on Canadian natives. Exposure has no effect on U.S. natives. More importantly, I find that institutional factors, such as the way in which countries organise their educational systems, have a crucial bearing on how immigrant students affect their peers.
    Keywords: academic achievement, immigrant children, peer effects, within-school estimation
    JEL: I21 J15
    Date: 2016–07
  202. By: Klyachko Tatiana (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The following public’s common perception of higher education continues to be prevalent in Russia: the quality of higher education keeps deteriorating; higher education fails to meet the requirements of the labor market; higher education graduates do not work in jobs strictly or closely related to their degrees or major; there is an oversupply of students in the country; there is need to train specialists with secondary vocational education and blue collar workers that are in shortage.
    Keywords: Russian economy, higher education, vocational education, job skills
    JEL: I21 I23 I25
    Date: 2016
  203. By: Motegi, H.; Nishimura, Y.; Oikawa, M.
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the reasons for differences in the effect of retirement on health estimated results in previous studies. We investigate these differences by focusing on the analysis methods used by these studies. Using various health indexes, numerous researchers have examined the effects of retirement on health. However, there are no unifed views on the impact of retirement on various health indexes. Consequently, we show that the choice of analysis method is one of the key factors in explaining why the estimated results of the effect of retirement on health differ. Moreover, we re-estimate the effect of retirement on health by using a fixed analysis method controlling for individual heterogeneity and endogeneity of the retirement behavior. We analyze the effect of retirement on health parameters, such as cognitive function, self-report of health, activities of daily living (ADL), depression, and body mass index in eight countries. We find that the effects of retirement on self-report of health, depression, and ADL are positive in many of these countries.
    Keywords: aging; health; retirement; global aging data;
    JEL: I00 I10 I12 I19 J26
    Date: 2016–07
  204. By: Groll, Dominik; Monacelli, Tommaso
    Abstract: The desirability of flexible exchange rates is a central tenet in international macroeconomics. We show that, with forward-looking staggered pricing, this result crucially depends on the monetary authority's ability to commit. Under full commitment, flexible exchange rates generally dominate a monetary union (or fixed exchange rate) regime. Under discretion, this result is overturned: a monetary union dominates flexible exchange rates. By fixing the nominal exchange rate, a benevolent monetary authority finds it welfare improving to tradeoff flexibility in the adjustment of the terms of trade in order to improve on its ability to manage the private sector's expectations. Thus, inertia in the terms of trade (induced by a fixed exchange rate) is a cost under commitment, whereas it is a benefit under discretion, for it acts like a commitment device.
    Keywords: commitment; discretion; flexible exchange rates; monetary union; nominal rigidities.; welfare losses
    JEL: E52 F33 F41
    Date: 2016–07
  205. By: Jayanti Rao; Kashinath G Metri; Amit Singh.
    Abstract: Constipation is most common GI problem which significantly affects health related quality of life, social functioning and compromises the ability to perform daily activities. Yoga is one of the alternative and complementary therapies known to have positive role in various GI related chronic problems. There is lack of evidences for role yoga in constipation. Thirty-seven participants suffering from chronic constipation, who attended one week of IAYT program consisting of asana (physical posture), pranayama, meditation, devotional sessions, diet modification and interactive sessions on philosophical concepts of yoga, at holistic health center S-VYASA, were enrolled in this study. The quality of life and the bowel habits were assessed before and after the intervention using Patient Assessment of Constipation- Quality of Life (PAC-QoL) questionnaire. There is a significant change in different domains of PAC-QoL such as reduction in the scores of physical discomfort (61.25%), psychological discomfort (59.21%), worries and concern (55.92%) and satisfaction (44%) were found after one week IAYT intervention. This pilot study indicated the potential role of IAYT role in management of chronic constipation. However further randomized control studies need to be performed in order to confirm the findings of present study Key words: Chronic constipation, PAC-QOL, IAYT
    Date: 2016–06
  206. By: Samaniego, Roberto; Sun, Juliana
    Abstract: We explore the key mechanisms whereby uncertainty impacts the business cycle by exploring the interaction of uncertainty with growth in industries with different technologies of production. We find that uncertainty shocks are particularly detrimental to growth in industries with rapid capital depreciation or high investment adjustment costs. The findings are consistent with real options theory: uncertainty leads firms to delay investment in new projects, but high depreciation and fixed costs of investment make delay more costly. On the other hand, we do not find evidence of a significant role of financial markets in the generation nor propagation of uncertainty shocks.
    Keywords: Uncertainty, technology, industry growth, depreciation, capital adjustment costs, investment lumpiness, real options.
    JEL: D81 E22 E32
    Date: 2016–07–13
  207. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: This publication reviews recent developments in East Asian local currency bond markets along with the outlook, risks, and policy options. It covers the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus the People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; and the Republic of Korea.
    Keywords: bonds, local currency, foreign currency, bond yields, emerging East Asia, bonds outstanding, bond issuance, bond market, foreign investor holdings, People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong, China, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam, credit spreads, government bonds, corporate bonds, US Federal Reserve, G3 currency, interest rate, treasury bonds, treasury bills, central bank, CPI, PPI
    Date: 2016–06
  208. By: Richard N. Langlois (University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: A dominant view in the Coasean law-and-economics tradition is that the firm (including in its form as the corporation) is nothing but a nexus of contracts: the firm is entirely a matter of contract law, and the corporate entity, the legal fiction of corporate personhood, is nothing but a name for a bundle of contracts. This view has implication both for the theory of the firm and for the political economy of the corporation – for the question of the “rights” of corporate entities. By asserting that the corporation is nothing but a set of contractual arrangements, the nexus-of-contracts view implies that any rights possessed by contracting individuals “pass through” to the corporation itself. Unsurprisingly, the powerful phalanx of writers who wish to limit the rights of the corporation take square and largely exclusive aim at the nexus-of-contracts view, assuming that arguments against that view are necessarily arguments against all kinds of “bottom up” accounts of the corporate form. I will argue that critics of the nexus-of-contracts view are indeed right in one sense (though by no means in every sense). Yet, despite this, the fact that the corporation cannot be constructed solely out of voluntary contract narrowly understood does not destroy the argument that the corporation is ultimately “nothing but” a form of cooperation among rights-holding individuals. The corporation understood from the perspective of property rights is both an object of ownership and a form of ownership. Much of the confusion in the literature arises from a procrustean attempt to appraise the corporation in light of simplified and partial accounts of the rights involved.
    Date: 2016–08
  209. By: Smith, Jeffrey A. (University of Michigan); Sweetman, Arthur (McMaster University)
    Abstract: Estimation, inference and interpretation of the causal effects of programs and policies have all advanced dramatically over the past 25 years. We highlight three particularly important intellectual trends: an improved appreciation of the substantive importance of heterogeneous responses and of their methodological implications, a stronger focus on internal validity brought about by the "credibility revolution," and the scientific value that follows from grounding estimation and interpretation in economic theory. We discuss a menu of commonly employed partial equilibrium approaches to the identification of causal effects, emphasizing that the researcher's central intellectual contribution always consists of making an explicit case for a specific causal interpretation given the relevant economic theory, the data, the institutional context and the economic question of interest. We also touch on the importance of general equilibrium effects and full cost-benefit analyses.
    Keywords: causal effects, heterogeneous treatment effects, partial equilibrium identification
    JEL: C18 C21 C26 C50 C90
    Date: 2016–07
  210. By: Einian, Majid; Ravasan, Farshad
    Abstract: Specialization models are important in providing a solid theoretical ground for gravity equation in bilateral trade. Some research papers try to improve specialization models by adding imperfect specialization to them, but we believe it is unnecessary complication. We provide a perfect specialization model based on the phenomenon that we call tradability, which overcomes the problems with simpler models. We provide empirical evidence using estimations on panel data of bilateral trade of 40 countries over 10 years that support the theoretical model.
    Keywords: bilateral trade, gravity equation, perfect specialization, tradability
    JEL: C23 E23 F11 F14
    Date: 2016–06–30
  211. By: Dinda, Soumyananda
    Abstract: Asia-Pacific region is much anxious about China’s slowdown, but the rest of the world has definite reason to worry about the consequences of the slowdown in China. During last few decades China is strongly integrated with Asia and also with the rest of the World. This paper investigates what the impact of China’s slowdown on the global economy is. If any crisis in China, how much does it affect developed and emerging or developing economies? Using modified Global VAR (GVAR) model, this paper focuses on these issues. This study considers more on international linking variables for the period of 2000-2012. Evidence based on GVAR analysis for six developed countries (G6: USA, UK, Germany, Japan, Canada and Australia) and BRICS (G4: Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa) show that the impact of China’s slowdown is more on emerging BRICS nations than that of developed economies. Impact of China’s GDP growth shock on the rest of emerging Asia is more since it has a strong production network in East and South East Asia. So, China’s slowdown certainly affects Asia more than western developed economies.
    Keywords: Panel data, GVAR, China’s economic slowdown, Global linking variable, GDP shock, BRICS, Developing Country, Developed Economy
    JEL: C32 C33 C54 F1 F6
    Date: 2015–08
  212. By: Goedele Van den Broeck; Johan Swinnen; Miet Maertens
    Abstract: This paper is the first to present panel data evidence on the longer-term impact of expansion of global value chains and large-scale export-oriented farms in developing countries. Using panel data from two survey rounds covering a seven-year period and fixed effects regression, we estimate the longer-term income effects of wage employment on large-scale farms in the rapidly expanding horticultural export sector in Senegal. In addition to estimating average income effects, we estimate heterogeneous income effects using fixed effects quantile regression. We find that poverty and inequality reduced much faster in the research area than elsewhere in Senegal. Employment in the horticultural export sector significantly increases household income and the income effect is strongest for the poorest households. Expansion of the horticultural export sector in Senegal has been particularly pro-poor through creating employment that is accessible and creates substantial income gains for the poorest half of the rural population. These pro-poor employment effects contrast with insights in the literature on increased inequality from rural wage employment.
    Keywords: globalisation, hogh-value supply chains, rural wage employment, quantile regression, panel data, long-term effects
    Date: 2016–07
  213. By: Luis Garicano; Claire Lelargez; John Van Reenen
    Abstract: We show how size-contingent laws can be used to identify the equilibrium and welfare effects of labor regulation. Our framework incorporates such regulations into the Lucas (1978) model and applies it to France where many labor laws start to bind on firms with 50 or more employees. Using population data on firms between 1995 and 2007, we structurally estimate the key parameters of our model to construct counterfactual size, productivity and welfare distributions. We find that the cost of these regulations is equivalent to that of a 2.3% variable tax on labor. In our baseline case with French levels of partial real wage inflexibility welfare costs of the regulations are 3.4% of GDP (falling to 1.3% if real wages were perfectly flexible downwards). The main losers from the regulation are workers - and to a lesser extent, large firms - and the main winners are small firms.
    Keywords: Firm size; productivity; labor regulation; power law
    JEL: J1 N0
    Date: 2016
  214. By: Lubberink, Martien; Renders, Annelies
    Abstract: Leading up to the implementation of Basel III, European banks repurchased below-par debt securities. Banks are subjected to a prudential filter that excludes unrealized gains on liabilities from changes in own credit standing from the calculation of capital ratios. By repurchasing securities, unrealized gains become realized and increase Core Tier 1 capital. We show that poorly capitalized banks repurchased securities and lost about e9.1bn in premiums to compensate debt holders. Banks also repurchased the most loss-absorbing securities, for which they paid the highest premiums. These premiums increase with leverage and in times of stress. Hence debt repurchases are a cause for prudential concern.
    Keywords: Banking, repurchases, subordinated debt.
    JEL: E58 G21 G28 G32 G35 M41
    Date: 2016–06–15
  215. By: Sen Gupta, Abhijit; More, Vishal; Gupta, Kanupriya
    Abstract: Over the last two decades India has witnessed a significant rise in growth rate compared to historical levels. In this study, we investigate the pattern and nature of growth, and its implication for poverty reduction in India. In particular, we focus on the extent to which, structural change defined as changes in the composition of the economy in terms of key sectors, their employment and productivity, has an impact on poverty reduction. The paper is first of its kind in focusing on these issue at the sub-state level, which is important given the large size of Indian states that mask a great deal of heterogeneity. Moreover, the paper focuses on alternate definitions of structural change, including for the first differentiating between productivity increases in India arising from workers moving into above average productivity level sectors from workers moving to sectors that are experiencing positive productivity growth. The paper finds that while improving sectoral productivity is important for poverty reduction, there is a strong link between shift of workers into sectors witnessing an increase in poverty and poverty reduction. Thus poverty reduction requires generating jobs in dynamic sectors that are witnessing productivity growth as well as imparting adequate skills to the workforce to make them employable in these sectors.
    Keywords: Structural change, poverty reduction, reallocation effect and labour productivity
    JEL: I32 J24 J62 R11
    Date: 2016–07
  216. By: Joan Costa-Font; Sergi Jiménez-Martín; Cristina Villaplana
    Abstract: The expansion of long-term care (LTC) coverage may improve health system efficiency by reducing hospitalisations (bed-blocking), and pave the way for the implementation of health and social care coordination plans. We draw upon the quasi- experimental evidence from the main expansion of long term care increase subsidisation in Spain in 2007 to examine the causal effect of the expansion of LTC subsidisation and coordination on hospitalisations (both on the internal and external margin) and the hospital length of stay. In addition, we examine the 2012 austerity budget cuts that reduced the subsidy. We find robust evidence of a reduction in hospitalisations and the length of stay after the expansion of LTC subsidisation. However, the reduction in hospitalisations is heterogeneous to the existence of health and social care coordination plans and type of subsidy. Overall, we estimate savings related to hospitalisations of up to 11% of total hospital costs. Consistently, subsidy reduction is found to attenuate bed-blocking gains.
    Date: 2016–07
  217. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: Women in Nepal have long experienced poverty, social exclusion, and marginalization because of their gender, especially among ethnic minorities and low-caste groups. Between 2002 and 2013, the Asian Development Bank and the Government of Nepal developed and implemented the Gender Equality and Empowerment of Women Project to reduce poverty by empowering rural women and members of other disadvantaged groups through an integrated process of economic, social, legal, and political empowerment. This publication presents the case study of that project which contributed to Nepal’s drive to eradicate gender-based inequality.
    Keywords: social exclusion, women, Nepal, gender, gender equality, ethnic minorities, low-caste groups, disadvantaged groups
    Date: 2016–06
  218. By: Meenakshi Srivastava
    Abstract: In teaching B.Ed .trainees use teaching aids, like, charts, models – static & working, specimen, slides, because teachers are given training both in preparation and use of Audio-visual Aids. It is a known fact that majority of schools do not have appropriate teaching aids related to the school content. So teachers have no facility to use A – V Aids during teaching. The use of A – V Aids get further restricted due to unmotivated persons becoming teachers. Central Government realized the need of improving quality of education through the use of ICT. This helped in improving the quality of teaching in schools having no teacher to teach the subject, less competent teacher, schools having poor or no facility of teaching aids,The use of ICT in education lends itself to more student centered learning settings and often this creates some tensions for some teachers and students. But with the world moving rapidly into digital media and information, the role of ICT in education is becoming More and more important and this importance will continue to grow and develop in the 21st century. . To keep pace with the changing world, teachers must have current knowledge and skills of educational technology.. The growing use of ICT as an instructional medium is changing and will likely continue to change many of the strategies employed by both teachers and students in the learning process. This paper highlights-ICT–A Tool for quality teaching in B.Ed. Programme. The paper the population for the study consisted of all the200 B.Ed. Students studying in the S.S.khanna Girls Degree Colleges of in the academic year 2014 and 2015 at Meerapur in allahabad. Key words: ICT, Teaching, B.Ed.
    Date: 2016–06
  219. By: Manoj B. Vanara
    Abstract: Customer satisfaction is defined as the way that customer usually view or feel about certain services and products. Internet Broadband services providers are of paramount importance in the developing economy of India. Many Internet Broadband service providers are offering various services in the market. Customer satisfaction with regards to Broadband services is resulting from the evaluation of service provided by an ISP to an individual in relation to expectations. This study is mainly focused to understand the Consumer satisfaction with regards to of BSNL Broadband services in Ahmedabad. The outcomes of this survey can be used by the BSNL, for understanding the customers satisfaction in respect to Broadband services and add value to their customers to increase their market share and Brand Image. This paper also attempts to understand the brand awareness, competitive strength of the company and problems faced by the customers, which helps the company to take appropriate measures to solve the problems. The Primary data was collected through survey method and was analyzed with the help of various statistical tools to draw meaningful conclusion. Key words: Customer satisfaction, Broadband
    Date: 2016–06
  220. By: Angelucci, Charles; Cagé, Julia
    Abstract: Newspapers' advertising revenues have declined sharply in recent decades. We build a model to investigate the consequences on newspapers' pricing and quality choices of a reduction in advertisers' willingness to pay for readers' attention. In our model, selling subscriptions in addition to newsstand issues allows to price discriminate between readers. We show that lower advertising revenues decrease newspapers' incentives to provide quality, which increases newspapers' incentive to price discriminate whenever readers' sensitivity to quality is sufficiently high. We build a unique dataset on French newspapers between 1960 and 1974 and perform a difference-in-differences analysis using a "quasi-natural experiment": the introduction of advertising on television in 1968, which affects national newspapers more severely than local ones. We find robust evidence of increased price discrimination and decreased quality as a result of the drop in advertising revenues, which may help rationalize current industry trends.
    Keywords: advertising; Newspaper industry; Newspaper quality; price discrimination; Two-sided markets
    JEL: L11 L15 M37
    Date: 2016–07
  221. By: Starodubrovskaya Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Since mid-2015, the republics of the north-eastern Caucasus (Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia) have been experiencing a new round of escalation of the conflict, which is rather simplistically interpreted by many observers as a controversy between Sufis[1] and Salafis. It should be noted that the law enforcement agencies and even the authorities of the North Caucasian republics are also most heavily involved in that conflict.
    Keywords: Russian economy, North Caucasus
    JEL: H11 H70 H77
    Date: 2016
  222. By: Blanche Segrestin (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: L'article explore la notion d'intérêt social, et montre comment il peut éclairer certaines dynamiques des conventions dans l'entreprise.
    Keywords: innovation , entreprise, convention, objet social,intérêt social
    Date: 2016
  223. By: Tiago P. Ferraz
    Abstract: Large infrastructure projects may cause permanent impacts on their local environment, affecting the living conditions of local people in a negative manner. To mitigate impacts caused by installation of hydroelectric plants, Brazilian law provides that municipalities are compensated by the Compensação Financeira pelo Uso de Recursos Hídricos (CFURH) and the payment of royalties (Itaipu). In this work I test whether such payments have actually worked as a benefit sharing mechanism, examining its effects on some social and economic indicators by way of two steps procedure: first, the propensity score of municipalities benefiting from the compensation is estimated using georeferenced data from WWF’s project HydroSHEDS. Then, I estimate a difference-in-differences model, comparing the dependent variables in the control and treatment groups before and after the compensation. The results show a limited effect of the compensation on living conditions. Human Development Index (HDI) and infant mortality showed a little improvement, but illiteracy rate and income inequality worsened.
    Keywords: benefit-sharing; CFURH; royalties.
    JEL: H75 H76 I38
    Date: 2016–07–28
  224. By: James Uguccioni
    Abstract: We develop internationally comparable estimates of the Human Development Index (HDI) for the Canadian provinces and territories over the 2000-2014 period. The HDI is a composite index composed of three dimensions (life expectancy, education and income) measured by four indicators (life expectancy at birth, average years of education, expected years of schooling and GNI per capita). We first replicate the Canadian estimates from the most recent Human Development Report (HDR) using data from Statistics Canada. Next, we generate estimates for the provinces and territories following the same methodology and using the same Canadian data sources. We make these estimates internationally comparable by scaling each province or territory’s estimate to Canada’s in the most recent HDR. This allows the provinces and territories to be ranked in the most recent HDR international rankings for all four component variables as well as the overall HDI. The highest HDI score in 2014 among the provinces and territories belongs to Alberta, which would be fourth in the international rankings, while the lowest ranking region is Nunavut, which would be in 46th place. Overall, our report highlights the diverse human development experiences of Canadians that are concealed by Canada’s overall HDI.
    Keywords: Human Development Index, Economic Development, Well-Being, HDI, HDR, Canada, Provinces, Education, Income, Life Expectancy
    JEL: O18 O15 O51 O57
    Date: 2016–07
  225. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: The Country Water Assessment (CWA) evaluates the balance between reliable and available water supplies and future demands for sustainable economic development in Indonesia. Articulated around the water,food, and energy nexus, the CWA explores technical, institutional, and policy options to improve planning, management, and development of water resources. The 2015–2019 midterm government development policy guides the priorities covered under the CWA. This assessment intends to provide a platform for dialogue to advance water reforms across Indonesia, focusing on Java, Sumatera, and Sulawesi—the country’s three main economic regions.
    Keywords: water sector, Indonesia, water resources, country water assessment, water, food, energy nexus, nexus
    Date: 2016–04
  226. By: Stacey, Brian
    Abstract: This paper attempts to codify a standard nomenclature for similarity measures based on recent literature and to advance the field of similarity measures through the introduction of non-binary similarity between more than two attribute vectors.
    Keywords: Binary Similarity Nonbinary Similarity Nonparametric Similarity Testing Multivector Similarity
    JEL: C14 C53 C65
    Date: 2016–08–01
  227. By: Kyle Peyton (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Chris Ryan (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne; ARC Centre for Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course); Justin van de Ven (ARC Centre for Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course)
    Abstract: This study looks at whether differences in student attitudes towards mathematics and science between Victorian students and those in selected other countries can explain differences in student achievement between them. We find that they cannot. In general, in the 2011 Trends in Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) data used here, Victorian school students have more positive attitudes towards mathematics and science than students in high achievement countries. These results also hold where we remove any language effects from the way people respond to attitudinal questions, or any cultural or social-desirability induced elements of the responses. Further, the most reliable estimates of the relationship between attitudes and achievement point to quite small effects, suggesting any increase in achievement associated with improved student attitudes could only be small.
    Keywords: International tests, achievement, student attitudes
    JEL: I21 I28
    Date: 2016–07
  228. By: Andrea Kunnert (WIFO)
    Abstract: The expenditure-to-income ratio is a widely used measure of housing affordability as it is easy to calculate and to interpret. Yet it suffers from several flaws that may diminish its usefulness. This paper addresses the main points of critique and improves the accuracy of the ratio measure by providing additional information about the distribution (values at the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentile) for the cost burden and calculating cumulative distributions for a range of expenditure-to-income shares instead of one single benchmark. Furthermore, an upper limit for income and housing quality is set in order to avoid misclassifying households that have strong preferences towards housing consumption. The results indicate that these modifications are necessary to avoid overestimating affordability problems. The tailored ratio approach developed in this paper holds up well when contrasting its results to that of the residual income approach in Austria by tenure.
    Keywords: housing affordability, ratio approach, quality adjustment, residual income approach, Austria
    Date: 2016–07–28
  229. By: Elena Carletti (Bocconi University - Department of Finance; European University Institute - Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS)); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute); Jan-Peter Siedlarek (Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Giancarlo Spagnolo (Stockholm School of Economics (SITE); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); University of Rome 'Tor Vergata'; EIEF)
    Abstract: We find that stricter merger control legislation increases abnormal announcement returns of targets in bank mergers by 7 percentage points. Analyzing potential explanations for this result, we document an increase in the pre-merger profitability of targets, a decrease in the size of acquirers and a decreasing share of transactions in which banks are acquired by other banks. Other merger properties, including the size and risk profile of targets, the geographic overlap of merging banks and the stock market response of rivals appear unaffected. The evidence suggests that the strengthening of merger control leads to more efficient and more competitive transactions.
    Keywords: banks; mergers and acquisitions; merger control; antitrust
    JEL: G21 G34 K21 L40
  230. By: Véronique Thireau (Chrome - EA 7352 - UNIMES - Université de Nîmes)
    Abstract: La santé pose aux décideurs et aux citoyens plusieurs défis : - un défi scientifique, celui de la conquête de l’homme par lui-même, - un défi politique ou transparait la question de l’intérêt général, - un défi social voire éthique portant l’accès au droit, l’égalité de traitement, les mécanismes redistributifs et la réduction des inégalités, - un défi statistique concernant la mesure d’un problème tant individuel que collectif et que l’on peine à définir. Enfin, un défi économique qui interroge différentes théories et induit différentes politiques à mettre en oeuvre.
    Keywords: politiques de santé,santé publique, théories économiques
    Date: 2016–05
  231. By: Centre for European Economic Reserach (ZEW)
    Abstract: The study delivers qualitative assessments of the sensitivity mechanisms at work as well as quantitative results. Tax systems are related with interest and inflation rates through various mechanisms which sometimes act in qualitatively different directions. Such a mechanism is, for example, that usually nominal returns are taxed rather than real returns. The Devereux/Griffith model incorporates these mechanisms of real world tax systems and allows for precise quantification.The broad range of figures produced in this study helps to illustrate and indicate the levels of effective tax burdens in different countries for a series of relevant situations. For comparing tax systems in the member states, common assumptions on interest and inflation rates are essential. Although there are no “universally true values” for effective tax levels in the member states, the analysis shows that the base case gives a good indication of the member states’ effective tax levels and member states’ relative position in a cross-country comparison.
    Keywords: corporate taxation, effective tax rates, inflation, interest rates, tax burden
    JEL: H21 H26 E43
    Date: 2016–08
  232. By: Kimberly Berg; Nelson C. Mark
    Abstract: We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk. The cross-country high-minuslow (HML) conditional skewness of the unemployment gap—our measure of global macroeconomic uncertainty—is a factor that is robustly priced in currency excess returns. A widening of the HML gap signifies increasing divergence, disparity and inequality of economic performance across countries.
    Keywords: Asset Pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates
    JEL: E21 E43 F31 G12
    Date: 2016
  233. By: Guillermo Ordonez (University of Pennsylvania); Gary Gorton (Yale School of Management)
    Abstract: To end a financial crisis, the central bank is to lend freely, against good collateral, at a high rate, according to Bagehot’s Rule. We argue that in theory and in practice there is a missing ingredient to Bagehot’s Rule: secrecy. Re-creating confidence requires that the central bank lend in secret, hiding the identities of the borrowers, to prevent information about individual collateral from being produced and to create an information externality by raising the perceived value of average collateral. Ironically, the participation of “bad†borrowers, with low quality collateral, in the central bank’s lending program is a desirable part of re-creating confidence because it creates stigma. Stigma is critical to sustain secrecy because no borrower wants to reveal his participation in the lending program, and it is limited by the central bank charging a high rate for its loans.
    Date: 2016
  234. By: Méon, Pierre-Guillaume (Free University of Brussels); Tojerow, Ilan (Free University of Brussels)
    Abstract: We study the relationship between major religious denominations and individuals' levels of education, using the World Values Survey. In a first step, running country-by-country regressions, we report first-time evidence that no single denomination has a universal effect on education. Each denomination has a positive and statistically significant effect in some countries, a negative and statistically significant effect in others, and a statistically insignificant effect elsewhere. In a second step, we relate the sign of the impact of a denomination in a country to whether the denomination is a minority in that country. We find that denominations that are a minority in a country are more likely to be associated with a higher level of education, and less likely to be associated with a lower level of education in that country. In both steps, the findings are independent from the specification of the regressions used in the first stage to determine the sign of the impact of denominations on educational outcomes. The finding of the second step is moreover robust to defining minority denominations using various thresholds. It is robust to controlling for whether the denomination is a state religion, for the country's level of democracy, per capita GDP, or level of education, to introducing denomination- and country- fixed effects, and to controlling for the identity of the largest other denomination in the country.
    Keywords: religion, education, minority
    JEL: I2 O5 Z1
    Date: 2016–07
  235. By: Lagani, Vincenzo; Athineou, Giorgos; Farcomeni, Alessio; Tsagris, Michail; Tsamardinos, Ioannis
    Abstract: The statistically equivalent signature (SES) algorithm is a method for feature selection inspired by the principles of constrained-based learning of Bayesian Networks. Most of the currently available feature-selection methods return only a single subset of features, supposedly the one with the highest predictive power. We argue that in several domains multiple subsets can achieve close to maximal predictive accuracy, and that arbitrarily providing only one has several drawbacks. The SES method attempts to identify multiple, predictive feature subsets whose performances are statistically equivalent. Under that respect SES subsumes and extends previous feature selection algorithms, like the maxmin parent children algorithm. SES is implemented in an homonym function included in the R package MXM, standing for mens ex machina, meaning 'mind from the machine' in Latin. The MXM implementation of SES handles several data-analysis tasks, namely classi�cation, regression and survival analysis. In this paper we present the SES algorithm, its implementation, and provide examples of use of the SES function in R. Furthermore, we analyze three publicly available data sets to illustrate the equivalence of the signatures retrieved by SES and to contrast SES against the state-of-the-art feature selection method LASSO. Our results provide initial evidence that the two methods perform comparably well in terms of predictive accuracy and that multiple, equally predictive signatures are actually present in real world data.
    Keywords: feature selection, constraint-based algorithms, multiple predictive signatures
    JEL: C88
    Date: 2016
  236. By: Vasilev, Aleksandar
    Abstract: Motivated by the highly-unionized public sectors, the high public shares in total employment, and the public-sector wage premia observed in Europe, this paper examines the importance of public-sector unions for macroeconomic theory. The model generates cyclical behavior in hours and wages that is consistent with data behavior in an economy with highly-unionized public sector, namely Germany during the period 1970-2007. The union model is an improvement over a model with exogenous public employment. In addition, endogenously-determined public wage and hours add to the distortionary effect of contractionary tax reforms by generating greater tax rate changes, thus producing higher welfare losses.
    Keywords: public sector labor unions,fiscal policy,public wages,public employment
    JEL: E62 J51
    Date: 2015
  237. By: Ascensión Andina Díaz (Departamento de Teoría e Historia Económica, Universidad de Málaga); José A. García-Martínez (Departamento de Estudios Económicos y Financieros, Universidad Miguel Hernández)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effect of media coverage on the incentives of a careerist judge to act on her information. The novelty of our approach is to consider a judge who seeks to signal both \textit{expertise} and (absence of) \textit{bias}. To this, we incorporate three types of judges: the high quality or wise judge, the normal judge and the biased/lenient judge. Our results show that whether media coverage of judicial cases leads to better sentencing practices or not, deeply depend on the proportion of lenient judges in the population. In particular, we obtain that when this proportion is either too low or too high, media coverage does not affect a judge's behavior. However, her behavior if very different in one case than in the other. We also obtain that when the perceived proportion of lenient judges is neither too strong nor too weak, media coverage of judicial cases can induce a judge to act less on her information and to pass harsher sentences.
    Keywords: Careerist judges; bias; transparency; media coverage; sentencing practices
    JEL: D82 K40 L82
    Date: 2016–08
  238. By: Jonathan Chiu; Cyril Monnet
    Abstract: The market for central bank reserves is mainly over-the-counter and exhibits a core-periphery network structure. This paper develops a model of relationship lending in the unsecured interbank market. In equilibrium, a tiered lending network arises endogenously as banks choose to build relationships to insure against liquidity shocks and to economize on the cost to trade in the interbank market. Relationships matter for banks’ bidding strategies at the central bank auction and introduce a relationship premium that can significantly distort the observed overnight rate. For example, it can explain some anomalies in the level of interest rates—namely, that banks sometimes trade above (below) the central bank’s lending (deposit) rate. The model also helps to explain how monetary policy affects the network structure of the interbank market and its functioning, and how the market responds dynamically to an exit from the floor system. We also use the model to discuss the potential effects of bilateral exposure limits on relationship lending.
    Keywords: Interest rates, Monetary policy implementation, Transmission of monetary policy
    JEL: E4 E5
    Date: 2016
  239. By: Fabrice Rousseau (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, Maynooth University.); Hervé Boco (University of Toulouse Toulouse Business School ISAE); Laurent Germain (Workplace-Name:University of Toulouse Toulouse Business School ISAE)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the competition of heterogeneously informed traders in a multi-auction setting. We obtain that the competition can take different forms depending on the number of traders, trading rounds and the noise in the information. When the number of traders is small and the number of trading rounds is large, traders may trade very aggressively at the opening and at the end of the trading day with lower trading intensity in between. Hence, we can explain volume patterns by the nature of the competition between traders rather than by pattern in the level of liquidity. We find that the noise in the signal may be beneficial for traders when the competition is strong as it gives them a monopolistic position on their private information. The amount of noise maximizing the trader’s expected profit increases with the number of trading rounds as well as the number of traders. This implies that the value of information is closely related to the market where that information is subsequently being used.
    Keywords: efficiency, asymmetric information, noise, liquidity, adverse selection, competition.
    Date: 2016
  240. By: Jan KALLSEN (Munich University of Technology); Johannes MUHLE-KARBE (ETH Zurich and Swiss Finance Institute)
    Abstract: We show that wealth processes in the block-shaped order book model of Obizhaeva/Wang converge to their counterparts in the reduced-form model proposed by Almgren/Chriss, as the resilience of the order book tends to infinity. As an application of this limit theorem, we explain how to reduce portfolio choice in highly-resilient Obizhaeva/Wang models to the corresponding problem in an Almgren/Chriss setup with small quadratic trading costs.
    Keywords: Limit order books, price impact, high-resilience limit
    JEL: G11 G12
  241. By: Dana SISEA (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest); Valentin SCARLAT (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest)
    Abstract: The production of goods and services by the entities producing, I assume a significant consumption of material resources and money to which they relate and in the calculations underlying the accounts. In this respect, a major role is the responsibility of the management accounting processing information on resource consumption, they recorded in their own filing system and calculated in basis of this information, the cost of goods and services. The role and importance of this indicator shall require it to be calculated with greater accuracy, at a level as close as possible to reality. This requirement is subject to the application in priority in management accounting, the most effective methods of calculation of costs, those that determine in the most truthful. Methods of calculation differ, in the main, in the light of the specific nature of the activity and profile production technology. The system for calculating the production enterprises being practised in Romania from base a small number of methods of calculation (method, method and methodology phases), all showing deficiencies with respect to the allocation of indirect costs and insufficiently accurate calculation of the cost. Companies in developed countries have economic and a tradition in the field of cost calculation with the application of advanced methods, one of which being the calculation of activity whose efficiency and deployment context are displayed in the following.
    Keywords: dual accounting system, harmonization of accounting systems, method of calculation, object of calculation, direct expenditure, overheads, the basis of allocation
    JEL: M41
    Date: 2016–04
  242. By: Michelle Rao
    Abstract: Using the data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, this paper estimates the relationship between language and labour force participation of women in Sub-Saharan Africa. The results suggest that women who speak languages with stronger distinctions between masculine and feminine are less likely to participate in the labour force. This relationship holds both across and within countries, even after controlling for individual characteristics, religion and proxies for gender social norms related to ones ethnicity, such as historical use of the plough. The results suggest that language has a direct effect on preferences regarding labour market decisions, above and beyond gender norms arising from ethnicity and religion. These findings contribute to the growing literature on the relationship between socio-psychological factors and gender differences in economic outcomes.
    Keywords: Language; Identity; Culture; Gender social norms; Female labour force participation ; Sapir-Whorf hypothesis
    JEL: D03 J16 N37 O55
    Date: 2016
  243. By: Klumpp, Matthias; Neukirchen, Thomas; Jäger, Stefanie
    Abstract: Logistics commands a huge variety of dynamic developments, driven by technological, organizational as well as market changes. Within this dynamic environment, logistics management demands a competent and flexible workforce, updated by current training and qualification tools. This research paper is presenting an analysis of current trend and technology topics within logistics and their connection as well as supply with state-of-the-art training tools. Specifically, the trend of gamification in qualification and education is described and applied to the logistics qualification sector. The paper also outlines the basic ideas and concepts for the research and development project MARTINA in Germany.
    Date: 2016
  244. By: Asadul Islam (Monash University); Steven Stillman (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano); Christopher Worswick (Carleton University)
    Abstract: The impact that an unforeseen event has on household welfare depends on the extent to which household members can take actions to mitigate the direct impact of the shock. In this paper, we use nine years of longitudinal data from the Household Income Labour Dynamics of Australia (HILDA) survey to examine the impact of job displacement and serious health problems on: individual labour supply and incomes, household incomes and food expenditure. We extend on the previous literature by examining whether mitigation strategies and their effectiveness differs for the native-born and immigrants. Immigrants make up nearly one quarter of the Australian population and there are a number of reasons to suspect that they may be less able to mitigate adverse shocks than the native-born.
    Keywords: job loss, income, consumption, labour supply, disability
    JEL: J65 I31 J15
    Date: 2016–07
  245. By: Islam, Asadul (Monash University); Stillman, Steven (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano); Worswick, Christopher (Carleton University)
    Abstract: The impact that an unforeseen event has on household welfare depends on the extent to which household members can take actions to mitigate the direct impact of the shock. In this paper, we use nine years of longitudinal data from the Household Income Labour Dynamics of Australia (HILDA) survey to examine the impact of job displacement and serious health problems on: individual labour supply and incomes, household incomes and food expenditure. We extend on the previous literature by examining whether mitigation strategies and their effectiveness differs for the native-born and immigrants. Immigrants make up nearly one-quarter of the Australian population and there are a number of reasons to suspect that they may be less able to mitigate adverse shocks than the native-born.
    Keywords: job loss, income, consumption, labour supply, disability
    JEL: J65 I31 J15
    Date: 2016–07
  246. By: Ojo, Marianne; Newton, Sarah
    Abstract: This paper explores the widely held theoretical view that zero interest rates should result in lower borrowing costs – propelling the demand for borrowing, “the theory and practice of monetary policy”, against the practical and broader acknowledgements that further negative consequences, namely bank runs - as well as the possibility of the occurrence of concerns of banks becoming more prone to the probabilities of greater unwillingness to lend, could occur. The latter negative consequence of banks’ unwillingness to lend, being considered to arise where “banks absorb the cost of negative rates themselves” such that this phenomenon “squeezes” the profit margin between their lending and deposit rates. However, as will be illustrated, different sources and authorities on the literature agree that it is still too early to draw conclusions on the impact of negative interest rates – be it in respect of i) whether it will work, ii) its wider impact and repercussions for the economy – as well as those economies where the policy has not yet been implemented (even where the policy is on the cards – namely in jurisdictions such as the United States), as well as (iii) its impact on the behavior of individuals (households) and firms. In exploring the appropriateness of its adoption – given prevailing global financial conditions and the economic environment, the paper also contributes to the extant literature from a theoretical, practical, empirical, as well as comparative jurisdictional perspective.
    Keywords: interest rates; monetary policy; central banks; market rates; lending rates
    JEL: E5 E58 E6 F3 G2 G3 K2 M4
    Date: 2016–07–28
  247. By: Grzegorz Wesołowski
    Abstract: I show that the long term interest rate that includes a time-varying term premium stabilizes GDP and it does not affect significantly inflation volatility in Poland. I derive this result from an estimated DSGE model of a small open economy. GDP volatility would have been much higher if the endogenous part of the term premium had been switched off in the model, while the inflation volatility has not been affected by the presence of the term premium. At the same time, the term premium shock had only a minor impact on GDP and inflation volatilities which suggests that the QE programs conducted by the major central banks did not have a substantial impact on the Polish economy.
    Keywords: long term interest rates, time-varying term premium, business cycle, small open economy
    JEL: E32 E43 E44
    Date: 2016
  248. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: This report summarizes the investments in clean energy made by the operations departments of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 2015, condensing information from project databases and formal reports in an easy-to-reference format. This report was prepared by ADB’s Clean Energy Program which provides the cohesive agenda that encompasses and guides ADB’s lending and nonlending assistance, initiatives, and plan of action for sustainable growth in Asia and the Pacific.
    Keywords: adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, adb energy investments, clean energy, renewable energy, solar energy, wind energy, energy efficiency, climate change financing, green cities, clean energy program, sustainable transport, loans, grants, technical assistance
    Date: 2016–05
  249. By: Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay; Gaston Yalonetzky
    Abstract: This paper discusses meanings of intra-generational mobility when variables take values corresponding to either unordered or ordered categories. We propose concepts of maximum and minimum mobility, along with mobility-inducing transformations and related desirable properties. Then we axiomatically characterize indices of individual mobility and social mobility. Our first set of concepts, properties and indices, measures mobility as diversity, unpredictability or instability in people’s status along the accounting period. This notion of mobility is relevant and applicable to both nominal and ordinal variables. Our second set measures mobility as average distance travelled across categories from one period to the next. This latter notion is only relevant for ordinal variables. We apply these indices to measure the extent of mobility in the responses to subjective wellbeing questions in the United Kingdom, using the British Household Panel Survey.
    Keywords: Intra-generational mobility, categorical variables, life satisfaction
    JEL: D30
    Date: 2016–07
  250. By: Sergey Ivashchenko (Saint Petersburg Institute for Economics and Mathematics (Russian Academy of Sciences), National Research University Higher School of Economics,Russia); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria)
    Abstract: A medium-scale nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model was estimated (54 variables, 29 state variables, 7 observed variables). The model includes an observed variable for stock market returns. The root-mean square error (RMSE) of the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts was calculated. The nonlinear DSGE model with measurement errors outperforms AR (1), VAR (1) and the linearised DSGE in terms of the quality of the out-of-sample forecasts. The nonlinear DSGE model without measurement errors is of a quality equal to that of the linearised DSGE model
    Keywords: nonlinear DSGE; Quadratic Kalman Filter; out-of-sample
    JEL: E32 E37 E44 E47
    Date: 2016–08
  251. By: Canta, Chiara; Cremer, Helmuth; Gahvari, Firouz
    Abstract: We study the role and design of private and public insurance programs when informal care is uncertain. Children's degree of altruism is represented by a parameter which is randomly distributed over some interval. The level of informal care on which dependent elderly can count is therefore random. Social insurance helps parents who receive a low level of care, but it comes at the cost of crowding out informal care. Crowding out occurs both at the intensive and the extensive margins. We consider two types of LTC policies. A topping up (TU ) scheme provides a transfer which is non exclusive and can be supplemented. An opting out (OO) scheme is exclusive and cannot be topped up. TU will involve crowding out both at the intensive and the extensive margins, whereas OO will crowd out solely at the extensive margin. However, OO is not necessarily the dominant policy as it may exacerbate crowding out at the extensive margin. Finally, we show that the distortions of both policies can be mitigated by using an appropriately designed mixed policy.
    Keywords: Long term care, uncertain altruism, private insurance, public insurance, topping up, opting out.
    JEL: H2 H5
    Date: 2016–07
  252. By: Gilberto Muraro (Università di Padova)
    Abstract: In a framework where laws are assumed to reflect the ethical values of the market social economy, the paper analyzes the role of ethics both in the wealth production and in the wealth distribution. As for the first item, ethics becomes relevant in the discretionary space left by laws that are often unclear or not fully protected by controls and penalties. Ethics is a relevant factor of economic growth but its diffusion is often blocked by short term invidividual interests, while the means to diffuse ethics in the society are of uncertain impact. A wide diffusion of the corporate social responsibility may be very helpful. As for the wealth distribution, ethics implies a meritocratic system of individual rewards but also an additional redistribution, whose analytical basis is offered by the “newcontractualism” proposed by John Rawls. Ethics appears then the result of a collective choice made under uncertainty and embedded in the religious rules or in the constitutions, which become the constraint of the ordinary laws that are much more influenced by the present conflicting interests.
    Keywords: ethics, corporate social responsibility, neocontractualism, redistribution, welfare state, inequality
    JEL: D63 D64 D71
  253. By: Vasilev, Aleksandar
    Abstract: We show that in a exogenous growth model with informal economy calibrated to Bulgarian data under the progressive taxation regime (1993-2007), the economy exhibits equilibrium indeterminacy due to the the presence of an unofficial production. These results are in line with the findings in Benhabib and Farmer (1994, 1996) and Farmer (1999). Also, the findings in this paper are in contrast to Guo and Lansing (1988) who argue that progressive taxation works as an automatic stabilizer. Under the flat tax regime (2008-14), the economy calibrated to Bulgarian data displays saddle-path stability. The decrease in the average effective tax rate addresses the indeterminacy issue and eliminates the "sink" dynamics.
    Keywords: Progressive taxation,Informal economy,Equilibrium (in)determinacy
    JEL: D91 J46
    Date: 2016
  254. By: Nancy Colombé
    Abstract: Despite the extensive literature investigating the impact of minimum wage legislation on employment, only a few studies have been carried out in developing countries. Furthermore, there exists only a few studies on the impact of the minimum wage on the human capital investment decisions of teenagers, and as far as I am aware there is no evidence from a developing country context. Given the importance of human capital accumulation for long run economic development, an analysis of the poverty reduction potential of introducing a minimum wage must take into account its impact on investment in human capital. Therefore, I address the question of how minimum wage legislation can impact the human capital investment decision of households in a developing country. Using data from 1990-2000 I use a multinomial logit model to estimate the impact of the minimum wage on the occupational choice of teenagers in Indonesia at the province level. It is found that between 1990 and 2000 the sharp increase in the real minimum wage reduced the proportion of teenagers enrolled in Senior Secondary education, whereas in the following decade the minimum wage had a positive impact on the enrolment rate. The effect of the minimum wage on the occupational choice of teenagers does not differ according to gender.
    Keywords: Education, Minimum Wage Legislation, Human Capital
    JEL: I25 J38 O15
    Date: 2016
  255. By: Agnès Durrande-Moreau (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc)
    Abstract: This article focuses on the relationships that can arise between a food product under protected designation of origin (PDO) and tourism. A case study examines the PDO cheese Beaufort and highlights that this PDO food is really appealing to tourists, not only by its gustative but also by its cultural and symbolic aspects. Many types of agritourist activities can be identified. A dynamic relationship between the PDO product and tourism is emerging early in the history of the case and is strengthening over time in a sort of virtuous circle, which in addition creates new resources. Success factors are discussed and some of them reveal being inherent to any PDO product. The Beaufort case can be an example on how to add value to a PDO product by using tourism.
    Abstract: L'article s'intéresse aux relations entre les produits agroalimentaires d'origine protégée (AOP) et le tourisme. Au moyen de l'étude du cas Beaufort, la recherche met en évidence plusieurs résultats. L'AOP présente un attrait pour les touristes, non seulement au plan physique et alimentaire mais aussi au plan culturel et symbolique, ce qui stimule des formes de tourisme variées, qui sont examinées. Une dynamique s'instaure très tôt entre la production fromagère et le tourisme, qui se renforce au fil du temps et secrète de nouvelles ressources. A l'examen des facteurs de succès, il semble que toute AOP recèle un fort potentiel touristique et pourrait se valoriser en activant la dynamique observée dans le cas.
    Keywords: cheese,PDO (protected designation of origin),DPO (designated protection of origin),tourism,tourisme,agriculture,fromage,AOP appellation d'origine protégée,innovation
    Date: 2015–09–25
  256. By: Morone, Andrea; Temerario, Tiziana
    Abstract: The recent literature on individual and group choices over risk has led to different results. In some studies under unanimity, groups were found to be less risk averse than individuals, while those under majority did not highlight significant differences. However, both the types of studies impose the decision rule to the group. In the present work we elicited groups’ preference under risk using a consensus rule, i.e. groups are free to solve disagreement endogenously, just as in the real life. Results from our pairwise choices experiment shows that when group members are free to use any rule they want in order to reach unanimity, there is no statistical difference between individuals’ and groups’ risk aversion.
    Keywords: Risk; uncertainty; decision-making; group decision; lottery; experimental economics; experiment;
    JEL: C92 D81
    Date: 2016–07
  257. By: Goodness C. Aye (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria); Peter Wanke (COPPEAD Graduate Business School, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro)
    Abstract: This paper presents an efficiency assessment of agricultural production in South Africa from 1970-2014, using an integrated two-stage fuzzy approach. More precisely, Fuzzy TOPSIS is used to assess the relative efficiency of agriculture in South Africa over the course of the years. In the second stage, fuzzy regressions based on different rule-based systems are used to predict the impact of socio-economic and demographic variables on agricultural efficiency. They are confronted with the bootstrapped truncated regressions with conditional α-levels proposed in Wanke et al. (2016a). The results reveal that R&D, land quality, health expenditure-population growth ratio have a significant, positive impact on efficiency levels, besides the GINI index. Specifically in terms of accuracy, fuzzy regressions outperformed the bootstrapped truncated regressions with conditional α-levels. Policy implications are derived.
    Keywords: Agriculture, South Africa, Fuzzy TOPSIS, Fuzzy Regression, Performance
    JEL: C6 D24 Q10 Q28
    Date: 2016–07
  258. By: Bettina Brueggemann (Goethe University Frankfurt)
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the recent and growing literature on optimal top marginal income tax rates. It computes optimal marginal tax rates for top earners in a Bewley-Aiyagari type economy explicitly accounting for entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs make up more than one third of the highest-earning one percent in the income distribution despite representing less than ten percent of the population. They are thus disproportionately affected by an increase in the top marginal income tax rate. Since entrepreneurs overall also employ half of the private-sector workforce, such policy changes can have important repercussions for aggregate labor demand and productivity. Nonetheless, the welfare maximizing top marginal tax rate amounts to 82.5 percent, and the revenue maximizing one to 90 percent. A steady state comparison between the benchmark economy featuring the current US tax system and the economy with the welfare maximizing top marginal tax rate illustrates the underlying mechanisms. The substantial increase in taxes leads to a large degree of redistribution, yielding sizable welfare gains for low-income households. Lower equilibrium wages benefit medium-sized entrepreneurs and enable them to grow, such that all entrepreneurs except those directly affected by the higher tax experience considerable welfare gains.
    Date: 2016
  259. By: Sprenger, Julia
    Abstract: The current study examines individual decision making in the fi eld of personal finance. How do people arrive at a financial decision? A laboratory experiment investigates the way external information is integrated into the decision making process. The objective is to explore the link between financial literacy and information acquisition behavior. The results show that participants with low financial literacy generally try to compensate for their low decision-specific knowledge with a higher demand for external information but give up this strategy when the information environment is restricted to impersonal information. For female participants, low financial literacy increases demand for advice. These findings reveal that a low knowledge base in finance can translate into low engagement in information search which might further increase the risk of low decision quality. The study links these findings to the debate on consumer empowerment and discusses implications for the financial services industry.
    Keywords: financial literacy,information acquisition,decision making,experiment
    JEL: C91 G02 D83
    Date: 2016
  260. By: Luigi Campiglio (DISCE, Università Cattolica)
    Abstract: We analyse the evolution of the European crisis, its intellectual roots and causes, and the consequence of the austerity economic policies: we rely on our previous econometric estimates, which show a positive impact of public investments as a jump start for private investments and employment. US and European economic impact on growth and public debt are assessed. According to our estimates the European economic crisis in Southern European countries has been precipitated by the sudden consumption drop caused by the austerity policies: the consequences of these policies have been widespread causing an economic and social fracture within the European countries, an upsurge of unemployment and poverty, and a slump of births. We argue that Germany was “fortunate”, enjoying the coincidence of accessing new Asian markets, when China joined the WTO in 2001, with the right high-quality products: the fast and huge increase of Germany current account balance has been coupled with the lack of its domestic and European aggregate demand. The deflationary pressures of the austerity policies have been amplified by the slowing growth rate of China and the economic impact on the unusually high export/GDP ratio of the Germany economy. We discuss in detail the positive role of the welfare state in the European countries, which is crucial to cope with the extreme heterogeneity of its demographic structure and the effort to resume economic growth in Europe.
    Keywords: European crisis, investment, Germany, welfare state
    JEL: E2 F4 I3
    Date: 2016–02
  261. By: Rondinone, Gonzalo; Thomasz, Esteban Otto
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to provide comprehensive insights into the architecture and impact of a recent financial innovation known as commodity index. The motivation of this study is based on the impact that these instruments may have in the functioning of commodity markets, leading to what the literature has called “financialization of commodities”. Therefore, we first present the concept of financialization. Then, we describe the architecture of commodites index and the corresponding trading vehicle called Exchangeable Trade Funds. In the third section we introduce an exploratory analysis of recent trends and stylized facts of the evolution of the market. We conclude with possible impacts of those instruments on the market, opening the hypothesis that they can generate a major source of risk in the markets that already describe a high level of volatility.
    Keywords: exchangeable trade funds, financialization
    JEL: G11 Q02
    Date: 2016–06
  262. By: Chen, Daniel L.; Halberstam, Yosh; Yu, Alan
    Abstract: Previous studies suggest a significant role of language in the court room, yet none has identified a definitive correlation between vocal characteristics and court outcomes. This paper demonstrates that voice-based snap judgments based solely on the introductory sentences of lawyers arguing in front of the Supreme Court of the United States predict outcomes in the Court. In this study, participants rated the opening statement of male advocates arguing before the Supreme Court between 1998 and 2012 in terms of masculinity, attractiveness, confidence, intelligence, trustworthiness, and aggressiveness. We found significant correlation between vocal characteristics and court outcomes and the correlation is specific to perceived masculinity even when judgment of masculinity is based only on less than three seconds of exposure to a lawyer’s speech sample. Specifically, male advocates are more likely to win when they are perceived as less masculine. No other personality dimension predicts court outcomes. While this study does not aim to establish any causal connections, our findings suggest that vocal characteristics may be relevant in even as solemn a setting as the Supreme Court of the United States.
    Date: 2016–07
  263. By: Al-Jarhi, Mabid
    Abstract: Any economic system will certainly be influenced in institutions and rules by the underlying political system. While the political processes are not carried out in the market, it can influence economic decisions related to consumption, saving, investment and exchange in no small way. Through the political processes, the shape of markets is formed, the taxation system is setup and government budget is determined. In addition, the political processes directly influence economic policies, including fiscal, monetary, trade and development policies, especially in the ways are formed and implemented. The analysis of the Islamic political system through the use of economic methodology is rare. It is common to provide historical analysis based on the experience of “Saqifah(t) Bani Saad” with the selection of the first Caliph Abu Bakr, as well as the method used to select the three following Caliph. This would involve a great deal of textual evidence and their interpretation. This paper presents an alternative approach to draw the main features of the Islamic political system from the basic Islamic values as well as contemporary human experiences. We start with identifying the most important Islamic values related to the field of politics, and set the salient features of a configuration of a contemporary political system that would fulfill such values. The first section deals with Islamic political values and in particular, those related to Tawheed, which we define it to be something more than just monotheism. In addition, we draw from contemporary Muslem literature the Islamic constitutional values. The second section discusses how Maqassed (ultimate objectives) of Shari'ah are related to the political system. The third section discusses economic theory of social choice. The fourth section discusses the sources of political failure and how they can be confronted. The fifth section discusses the choice between types of government. The sixth section discusses the lessons to be learnt from the government of Madinah. Finally, in the last section, a blueprint for an Islamic economic system is presented.
    Keywords: Keywords: political values, constitutional values, freedom, justice, liberty, equality, economic theory and social choice, impossibility theorem, political efficiency, political failure, redistribution of political power, choice of government type, democracy, political party, political agency models, models of representative democracy, Khelafa, Shura,
    JEL: H1 P4 P43 P48 Y80 Z12 Z18
    Date: 2016–07–01
  264. By: Zadonsky Georgy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2015, according to the data released by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, credit institutions extended 691,943 housing mortgage loans (HML) to the tune of Rb 1,147.339bn, which constituted 68.32% of the total amount of HML extended in 2014 and 65.04% in monetary terms. In the same period, 706,786 housing loans were originated totaling to Rb 1,168.222bn, which in quantity of loans comes to 66.71% and in monetary terms 64.14% of the extended loans.
    Keywords: Russian economy, mortgage market, new housing construction
    JEL: R14 R21 R52 G21 K11 L74 L85
    Date: 2016
  265. By: Héctor Pérez Saiz; Gabriel Xerri
    Abstract: The recent financial crisis has led to the development of new regulations to control risk in designated payment systems, and the implementation of new credit risk management standards is one of the key issues. In this paper, we study various credit risk management schemes for the Canadian retail payment system (ACSS) that are designed to cover the exposure of a defaulting member. We consider schemes that use a collateral pool calculated using a rolling time window. Our simulations show that the size of the window has a very significant effect on the average level of collateral and its variability day to day, creating an interesting trade-off. Collateral levels and variability may be important for ACSS participants because they could affect the opportunity costs of pledging collateral, and also the costs of managing it over time. Our results contribute to understanding the practical implementation of risk management schemes in the current and future generations of payment systems in Canada.
    Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems
    JEL: G21 G23 C58
    Date: 2016
  266. By: Yolanda Blasco-Martel (Universitat de Barcelona \cf0 Author-Email:
    Abstract: Research on banking systems has token as a frame of reference the English banking system. Precisely because the English banking system was early, it had opportunities to explore certain control mechanisms that favored the extension of the bill of bank. One such mechanism was known as Palmer Rule, a rule stating that a well-managed bank should keep in its cash box one third of its responsibilities. This rule allowed maintaining the convertibility of notes, giving confidence to customers and encouraging the spread paper money. In Spain it has been discussed about the convertibility of the note in the last quarter of the nineteenth century. This work includes to the discussion the Palmer rule, crucial to understanding why the ticket of the Bank of Spain ceased to be convertible de facto in the late nineteenth century, although the inconvertibility is not legally established until 1946.
    Keywords: Palmer rule, Convertibility, Banking history, Banking rules, Spain
    JEL: N14 N24 E42 E58
    Date: 2016–07
  267. By: Peter Christoffersen; Bruno Feunou; Yoontae Jeon; Chayawat Ornthanalai
    Abstract: We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on return variance once we include market illiquidity as an economic variable in the model. This finding suggests that the relationship between variance and jump risk found in the literature is largely due to their common exposure to market liquidity risk. Our study highlights the importance of equity market frictions in index return dynamics and explains why prior studies find that crash risk increases with market uncertainty level.
    Keywords: Asset Pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability
    JEL: G01 G12
    Date: 2016
  268. By: Fernando Rios-Avila; Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza
    Abstract: Although one would expect the unemployed to be the population most likely affected by immigration, most of the studies have concentrated on investigating the effects immigration has on the employed population. Little is known of the effects of immigration on labor market transitions out of unemployment. Using the basic monthly Current Population Survey from 2001–13 we match data for individuals who were interviewed in two consecutive months and identify workers who transition out of unemployment. We employ a multinomial model to examine the effects of immigration on the transition out of unemployment, using state-level immigration statistics. The results suggest that immigration does not affect the probabilities of native-born workers finding a job. Instead, we find that immigration is associated with smaller probabilities of remaining unemployed, but it is also associated with higher probabilities of workers leaving the labor force. This effect impacts mostly young and less educated people.
    Keywords: Immigration; Unemployment Duration; Labor Force Transition
    JEL: J1 J6
    Date: 2016–08
  269. By: Hiroshi Fujiki (Faculty of Commerce, Chuo University (E-mail:; Charles M. Kahn (Department of Finance, College of Business, University of Illinois (E-mail:
    Abstract: We analyze the choice of collateral for use in repurchase agreement (repo) contracts based on an optimal contract model, and examine when regulatory restrictions are appropriate on the use of types of collateral in repo contracts, especially on the exemption to the automatic stay requirements. Our analyses imply that the crucial characteristics of the assets more desirable as collateral in an optimal contract are lower opportunity cost to create the collateral, lower hazard rate in the distribution of valuations of the collateral assets, and higher negative correlation of valuations between borrower and lender. We consider an externality based on divergence between market price and buyer fs surplus in a resale asset market, and analyze its effect on the welfare consequences of the exemption to the automatic stay requirements. We also consider the welfare consequences when national regulators evaluate the welfare benefits only from their national perspectives.
    Keywords: repo market, the exemption from automatic stays, collateral, cross-border financial transaction
    JEL: G15 G17 G18
    Date: 2016–07
  270. By: Gianni De Fraja; Giovanni Facchini; John Gathergood
    Abstract: Using individual level data on the salary of all UK university professors, matched to results on the performance of academic departments from the 2014 Research Excellence Framework, we study the relationship between academic salaries and research performance. The UK higher education sector is particularly interesting because professorial salaries are unregulated and the outcome of the official research evaluation is a key financial concern of universities. To frame our analysis, we present a simple model of university pay determination, which shows that pay level and pay inequality in a department are positively related to performance. Our empirical results confirm these theoretical predictions; we also find that the pay-performance relationship is weaker for the more established and better paying universities. Our findings are also consistent with the idea that higher salaries have been used by departments to recruit academics more likely to improve their performance.
    Keywords: Higher education competition, research funding, university sector, salary in-equality
    Date: 2016
  271. By: Coen N. Teulings
    Abstract: It is well known that rational bubbles can be sustained in balanced growth path of a deterministic economy when the return to capital r is equal to the growth rate g. When there is a lack of stores of value, bubbles can implement an efficient allocation. This paper considers a world where r fluctuates over time due to shocks to the marginal productivity of capital. Then, bubbles further efficiency, though they cannot implement first best. While bubbles can only be sustained when r = g in a deterministic economy, r > g "on average" in a stochastic economy. Fiscal policy improves welfare by adding an extra asset. Where only the elderly contribute to shifting resources between investment and consumption in a bubbly economy, fiscal policy allows part of that burden to be shifted to the young. Contrary to common wisdom, trade in bubbly assets implements intergenerational transfers, while fiscal policy implements intragenerational transfers. Hence, while bubbles and fiscal policy are perfect substitutes in the deterministic economy, fiscal policy dominates bubbles in a stochastic economy. For plausible parameter values, a higher degree of dynamic inefficiency should lead to a higher sovereign debt.
    Keywords: rational bubbles, fiscal policy, Secular Stagnation
    JEL: E44 E62
    Date: 2016–07–27
  272. By: Bergoña Álvarez (Universidad de Vigo); Fernando Ramos Palencia (Universidad Pablo de Olavide)
    Abstract: Using the Ensenada Cadastre, a unique database on Castilian households circa 1750, we measure the effect of human capital on the structure of male labor earnings. Human capital is proxied by individual indicators of basic skills (literacy and numeracy) and of occupational skills. We employ a Mincerian regression approach and find that, on average, workers with greater skills earned more than otherwise similar workers with lesser skills. This finding is robust to the inclusion of additional controls for age, household composition, job characteristics, and place of residence. Estimated returns were larger for urban than for rural workers and were strongly heterogeneous across activity sectors. The richness of our data set reveals that higher-skilled workers not only reaped positive rewards in their main jobs but also were more likely to diversify and increase their earnings through “by-employment”. However, not all workers benefited to the same degree from increased human capital. Quantile regression analysis shows that earnings disparities between workers with different skills were much smaller at the lower than at the upper end of the earnings distribution. This evidence indicates that, in pre-industrial Castile, human capital contributed to earnings (and income) inequality.
    Keywords: human capital, pre-industrial Spain, skill premia, earnings inequality, quantile regression
    JEL: N33 J24 C21
    Date: 2016–07
  273. By: Daniel Martin (Northwestern University)
    Abstract: In this paper I propose a general model of consumption for consumers who are inattentive to prices. The behavioral implications of this model can be summarized by a set of non-parametric and testable restrictions on demand functions that are simple and bear a resemblance to classical restrictions, but are novel in their construction. The empirical performance of these restrictions is assessed using consumption data from setting where there is substantial evidence of inattention to prices: grocery store purchases.
    Date: 2016
  274. By: Franck Portier (Toulouse School of Economics); Dana Galizia (Carleton University); Paul Beaudry (University of British Columbia)
    Abstract: In most modern macroeconomic models, the steady state (or balanced growth path) of the system is a local attractor in the sense that in the absence of shocks, the economy would converge to the steady state. In this paper we examine whether the times series behavior of macroeconomic aggregates (especially labor market aggregates) are in fact supportive of this locally stability view of macroeconomic dynamics or if they instead favor an alternative interpretation whereby the macro-economy may be better characterized as a locally unstable system with deterministic forces that support limit cycle behavior. To do this, we extend standard AR representations of the data to allow for smooth non-linearities using polynomials. Our main finding is that, even using a procedure which may have low power, the data provide considerable support to the view that the macro-economy may be locally unstable. An interesting finding is that the amount of non-linearity we detect in the data is rather minor but it is enough to alter the description of macroeconomic behavior. We also discuss the extent to which these two different views about the inherent dynamics of the macro-economy may matter for policy.
    Date: 2016
  275. By: Ritzen, Jo (IZA and Maastricht University); Haas, Jasmina (Maastricht University)
    Abstract: The decrease in the rule of law and in control of corruption in several EU countries is a threat to the cohesion in the EU. Brexit has reinforced the centrifugal forces in the EU. To counter this threat the EU needs to engage in unpopular measures as they infringe on the Member States' sovereignty. We propose to introduce new measures in treaty revisions like the possibility of individuals to appeal to European courts to counter negative developments in governance in EU Member States.
    Keywords: governance, institutions, EU, economic growth
    JEL: D02 D72 D78 E02 I31 K20 K33 O43 O52
    Date: 2016–07
  276. By: Makate, Marshall; Makate, Clifton
    Abstract: Abstract: The effect of the quality of prenatal care on child mortality outcomes has received less attention in sub-Saharan Africa. This study sought to explore the consequence of the quality of prenatal care and its individual components on neonatal, infant and under-five mortality using the three most recent rounds of the nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey data for Zimbabwe conducted in 1999, 2005/06 and 2010/11. The model for the demand for the quality of prenatal care is estimated using an OLS regression while the child mortality models are estimated using standard probit regressions. Since infant mortality rates and access to quality prenatal care might differ by rural and urban residence, we estimate separate models for the overall sample, urban and rural samples. The results indicate that a one-unit increase in the quality of prenatal care lowers the risks of neonatal, infant and under-five mortality by nearly 36%, 29.31%, and 27.53% respectively for the overall sample. The probability of neonatal, infant and under-five mortality is lowered by about 41.67%, 35.18%, and 30.77% respectively for urban-born children following a one-unit increase in the quality of prenatal care. For the rural sample, we found that a one-unit increase in the quality of prenatal care lowers the risks of neonatal, infant and under-five mortality by nearly 34.61%, 27.12%, and 25.35% respectively. These findings are all statistically significant at the 1% significance level. Examining the effect of individual prenatal care components on child mortality revealed that blood pressure checks, information on pregnancy complications, iron supplementations, and tetanus vaccinations are all important in lowering child deaths. Overall, our results suggest the need for public health policy makers in Zimbabwe to focus on ensuring high-quality prenatal care especially in low-income and rural segments of the population to save Zimbabwe’s children.
    Keywords: Key words: Quality of prenatal care; neonatal, infant and under-five mortality; rural and urban communities; sub-Saharan Africa; Zimbabwe
    JEL: I1 I12 I18
    Date: 2016–04–06
  277. By: Makate, Marshall; Makate, Clifton
    Abstract: Abstract: The effect of the quality of prenatal care on child mortality outcomes has received less attention in sub-Saharan Africa. This study sought to explore the consequence of the quality of prenatal care and its individual components on neonatal, infant and under-five mortality using the three most recent rounds of the nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey data for Zimbabwe conducted in 1999, 2005/06 and 2010/11. The model for the demand for the quality of prenatal care is estimated using an OLS regression while the child mortality models are estimated using standard probit regressions. Since infant mortality rates and access to quality prenatal care might differ by rural and urban residence, we estimate separate models for the overall sample, urban and rural samples. The results indicate that a one-unit increase in the quality of prenatal care lowers the risks of neonatal, infant and under-five mortality by nearly 36%, 29.31%, and 27.53% respectively for the overall sample. The probability of neonatal, infant and under-five mortality is lowered by about 41.67%, 35.18%, and 30.77% respectively for urban-born children following a one-unit increase in the quality of prenatal care. For the rural sample, we found that a one-unit increase in the quality of prenatal care lowers the risks of neonatal, infant and under-five mortality by nearly 34.61%, 27.12%, and 25.35% respectively. These findings are all statistically significant at the 1% significance level. Examining the effect of individual prenatal care components on child mortality revealed that blood pressure checks, information on pregnancy complications, iron supplementations, and tetanus vaccinations are all important in lowering child deaths. Overall, our results suggest the need for public health policy makers in Zimbabwe to focus on ensuring high-quality prenatal care especially in low-income and rural segments of the population to save Zimbabwe’s children.
    Keywords: Key words: Quality of prenatal care; neonatal, infant and under-five mortality; rural and urban communities; sub-Saharan Africa; Zimbabwe
    JEL: I1 I12 I18
    Date: 2016–04–06
  278. By: Chakraborty, Tanika (Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur); Jayaraman, Rajshri (European School of Management and Technology (ESMT))
    Abstract: We study the effect of the world's largest school feeding program on children's learning outcomes. Staggered implementation across different states of a 2001 Indian Supreme Court Directive mandating the introduction of free school lunches in public primary schools generates plausibly exogenous variation in program exposure across different birth cohorts. We exploit this to estimate the effect of program exposure on math and reading test scores of primary school-aged children. We find that midday meals have a dramatic positive effect on learning achievement: children with up to 5 years of primary school exposure improve their test scores by approximately 10-20%. We further investigate various channels that may account for this improvement including enrollment and nutrition-learning effects, heterogeneous responses by socio-economic status, complementary schooling inputs, and intra-household redistribution.
    Keywords: school feeding, learning, midday meal, primary school education
    JEL: I21 I25 O12
    Date: 2016–07
  279. By: Robert Baumann (Department of Economics, College of the Holy Cross); Bryan Engelhardt (Department of Economics, College of the Holy Cross); David L. Fuller (College of Business, University of Wisconsin - Oshkosh)
    Abstract: We show if a speculator can benefit from reducing a monopoly’s rents through short selling, then a speculator may take a short position in a monopoly, overcome the barriers to entry, and compete with the monopoly. The competition drives down the monopoly’s rents, and as a result, the short position becomes profitable and covers the cost of entry. If entry is impossible, then the speculator may coordinate and pay the firm’s counter-parties to stop trading with the monopoly rather than entering. Either way, increasing a speculator’s ability to short a firm’s rents results in a constraint on the monopoly and forces it to act more like a price taker. The mechanism is a market based approach to antitrust.
    Keywords: antitrust, monopoly, short selling
    JEL: L12 K21
    Date: 2016–04
  280. By: Chiswick, Barry R. (George Washington University)
    Abstract: This policy analysis discusses issues regarding the migration to Europe of large numbers of immigrants and refugees who, on arrival, do not know their host country's language. It reviews problems of economic integration into the labor market, the consequences of the formation of immigrant enclaves divorced from the host country labor market, and considers public policies to facilitate their linguistic and economic integration.
    Keywords: immigrants, refugees, language, enclaves, Europe, discrimination
    JEL: F22 J15 J24 J31 J61
    Date: 2016–07
  281. By: Karachurina Lilia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In January-November 2015 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, Russia’s positive migration balance moved down by around 20% and came to 214,900 persons. Negative migration balance resulted not so much from the contraction of the number of inflows as could be figured by the current Russia’s economic situation as from the 15 percent growth of outflows. Monthly/quarterly registration posted positive balance of the number of inflows solely in Q1, later there was balance and in Q4 there was an obvious decrease. Evidently, by the end of the year previously planned and finally implemented resettlements into Russia as well as statistical lag were “eroded” by the ruble devaluation and general economic recession. In the course of the year, the outflows from Russia demonstrated steady downward trend against the corresponding indices of 2014. As a result, Russia’s net migration starting with Q2 2015 was constantly less than compared to the same period of 2014. In November negative migration balance came to around 30 p.p.
    Keywords: Russian economy, internal migration, long-term migration, external labor migration
    JEL: J61 J62 F22 J11
    Date: 2016
  282. By: Sutter, Matthias (University of Cologne); Huber, Jürgen (University of Innsbruck); Kirchler, Michael (University of Innsbruck); Stefan, Matthias (University of Innsbruck)
    Abstract: Markets are ubiquitous in our daily life and, despite many imperfections, they are a great source of human welfare. Nevertheless, there is a heated recent debate on whether markets erode social responsibility and moral behavior. In fact, competitive pressure on markets may create strong incentives for unethical practices (like using child labor) to increase competitiveness. While markets have been considered as detrimental for moral behavior, it has turned out a challenging task to identify where moral behavior is reflected in a market. Recent work has suggested that falling prices in markets with externalities are an indicator of declining morals. Here we examine the relation between trading volume, prices and moral behavior by presenting an experimental study where we let buyers and sellers interact on a double auction market. In one set of treatments, concluding a trade has no externality; in the other set, there is a negative externality by voiding donations for a potentially life-saving measles vaccine to UNICEF. We find that moral behavior reveals itself in lower trading volume in markets with an externality, but that market prices are hardly different between markets with or without an externality. We also vary the number of buyers and sellers and show that prices depend mainly on the relative number of buyers and sellers, but not on the existence of an externality. Hence, the market forces of supply and demand work equally well in determining prices whether or not trading has an externality.
    Keywords: morals, markets, competition, experiment
    JEL: C92 D03 D62
    Date: 2016–07
  283. By: Donaubauer, Julian (Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg); Dreger, Christian (DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: China's government is promoting the shift towards a consumption-based economy since a few years. The explicit goal to significantly raise the percentage of wages in the national household income is integral part of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15). The changes in the economic strategy are likely to affect the attractiveness of the country to foreign investors. In this paper, we raise the hypothesis that soaring wages negatively affect FDI inflows to China and alter the distribution of FDI over Chinese provinces. In addition, low-wage countries in the geographical surrounding might benefit from the changed direction of FDI inflows. By performing panel models with spatial effects for both Chinese provinces and developing ASEAN countries, regional dependencies are explicitly addressed. We provide strong and robust evidence that the wage increases change the distribution of FDI within China. In addition, we show that the changes in China's economic strategy improve the chances of its low-income neighbours to attract FDI.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, Chinese economic transformation, spatial correlation
    JEL: F15 F21 F63 E22
    Date: 2016–07
  284. By: Giovanni Barone-Adesi (University of Lugano - Swiss Finance Institute); Chiara Legnazzi (University of Lugano - Swiss Finance Institute); Antonietta Mira (Swiss Finance Institute, University of Lugano)
    Abstract: The focus of this article is the Pricing Kernel (PK), the building-block of asset pricing theory. In the classical framework the shape of the PK is monotonically decreasing in the stock price, nevertheless empirical evidence suggests that the PK is locally increasing in the interval around the 0% return and has an irregular behaviour in the tails of the distribution. We argue that these deviations, known as pricing kernel puzzle, derive from a dis-homogeneity between the physical and the risk neutral (RN) measure and can be corrected by embedding some forward looking information into the physical measure. Our proposed methodology combines the information from historical returns with that coming from the RN measure through a non-parametric Poisson-Dirichlet process. As a result the irregular behaviour of the PK in the tails of the distribution is reduced and the monotonicity is ensured in almost all cases.
    Keywords: Pricing Kernel, pricing kernel puzzle, Poisson-Dirichlet Process
    JEL: G13 G19
  285. By: Ost, Ben (University of Illinois at Chicago); Pan, Weixiang (University of Illinois at Chicago); Webber, Douglas A. (Temple University)
    Abstract: Analyzing how working students weather personal economic shocks is increasingly important as the fraction of college students working substantial hours has increased dramatically over the past few decades. Using administrative data on Ohio college students linked to matched firm-worker data on earnings, we examine how layoff affects the educational outcomes of working college students. Theoretically, layoff decreases the opportunity cost of college enrollment, but it could also make financing one's education more difficult, so the net effect is ambiguous. We find that layoff leads to a considerable reduction in the probability of employment while in school, but it has little impact on enrollment decisions at the extensive margin. On the intensive margin, we find that layoff leads to an increase in enrolled credits, consistent with the fact that the opportunity cost of college has decreased.
    Keywords: layoff, educational investment, working students
    JEL: I21 I23 J63
    Date: 2016–07
  286. By: Francisco Martínez Sánchez (Universidad de Alicante)
    Abstract: We analyze the e¿ect of customizing a product on the ability of firms to tacitly collude on prices when some consumers are not informed about price. Following Bar-Isaac et al. (2014), we allow firms to be located inside the circle in the Salop model (1979). Our analysis shows that the e¿ect of product customization on the stability of collusion depends on the sensitivity of consumers’ utility to the degree of customization. We also obtain that collusion becomes harder to sustain when more consumers are informed about prices. From our welfare analysis, we conclude that the e¿ects of customizing depend on the sensitivity of consumers’ utility to the degree of customization. Finally, we find that transparency has no e¿ect on the equilibrium outcome under collusion. However, at the punishment stage, the e¿ect of transparency is positive on the consumer surplus and negative on the producer surplus. Since these two e¿ects cancel each other out, we obtain that having more informed consumers on prices does not a¿ect welfare.
    Keywords: Collusion; Customization; The Salop model; Transparency
    JEL: D40 L10 L40
    Date: 2016–08
  287. By: Christensen, Julie (Amherst College); Onul, Darius (Amherst College); Singh, Prakarsh (Amherst College)
    Abstract: We reevaluate the hypothesis and empirical result that ethnic civil wars lead to higher skilled emigration (Bang and Mitra, 2013). We develop a simple conceptual framework that predicts contrasting results depending upon if the economy is assumed to be agglomerating in skilled labor or non-agglomerating with network effects. In the latter case, non-ethnic wars may lead to higher skilled emigration. A regression model that accounts for the time-varying definition of migration and includes important explanatory variables shows that non-ethnic wars as opposed to ethnic wars may lead to more skilled emigration.
    Keywords: civil war, emigration, brain drain, ethnic war, agglomeration, high-skilled migration
    JEL: J1 F2 O1
    Date: 2016–07
  288. By: Michel A. Habib (University of Zurich; Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - Swiss Finance Institute); D. Bruce Johnsen (George Mason University - School of Law; PERC - Property and Environment Research Center)
    Abstract: Active fund managers implicitly promise to research profitable portfolio selection. But active management is an experience good subject to moral hazard. Investors cannot tell high from low quality up front and therefore fear manager shirking. We show how the parties mitigate the moral hazard by paying the manager a premium fee sufficiently high that the manager’s one-time gain from shirking is less than the capitalized value of the premium stream he earns from maintaining his promise to provide high quality. Premium advisory fees act as a quality-assuring bond. Our model has a number of revealing extensions and comparative statics.
    Keywords: Excessive fees, advisory fees, quality-assurance, open-access, closet indexing
    JEL: D23 D86 G23 L22
  289. By: Álvaro Zerda Sarmiento
    Abstract: Las conversaciones del gobierno Santos con la dirigencia de las FARC que arrancaron en 2012 partieron de una premisa: el modelo económico no se negocia. Con este punto grueso por fuera de la agenda, la hoja de ruta acordada contempló seis temas centrales de los cuales el referido al desarrollo agrario integral es el de mayor incidencia en el plano económico. No sobra tener en cuenta que el posible acuerdo tendrá impacto en sí sobre la economía en su conjunto, sobre lo cual varían las especulaciones entre un optimismo desaforado y un pesimismo derrotista. Este artículo se centra en examinar la relación que puede existir entre los acuerdos parciales firmados en La Habana sobre desarrollo agrario, el modelo económico imperante en el país y las medidas económicas que ha tomado el gobierno del presidente Santos en los últimos años. Al final se hace una reflexión sobre las necesidades de financiamiento para poner en marcha los acuerdos y la realidad de la economía colombiana en el momento.
    Keywords: Política económica, Acuerdos de paz, Desarrollo rural, Reforma agraria
    JEL: E61 E62 Q00 Q15
    Date: 2016–07–26
  290. By: Andrea Morone (Università degli Studi di Bari, Italy & LEE-Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Simone Nuzzo (Dipartimento di Studi Aziendali e Giusprivatistici, Università degli Studi di Bari, Aldo Moro, Italy)
    Abstract: We investigate traders’ behaviour in an experimental asset market where uninformed agents cannot be sure about the presence of insiders. In this framework we compare two trading institutions: the continuous double auction and the call market. The purpose of this comparison is to test which of the two trading mechanisms performs better in promoting a convergence towards the efficient equilibrium price. In a framework where the presence of insiders is neither certain nor common knowledge, inspired by Plott and Sunder (1982) and Camerer and Weigelt (1991), we first test whether a discrete time mechanism of trading, like the call market, might be able to prevent the occurrence of information mirages and promote a greater level of efficiency when no inside information is in the market. Second, we also compare the efficiency of the two trading institutions during periods when insiders are present in the market.
    Keywords: Experimental; Experimental Markets, Market Efficiency, Information Mirages, Trading Institutions
    JEL: C91 D53
    Date: 2016
  291. By: Alessandra, Michelangeli; Nicola, Pontarollo
    Abstract: This paper aims at assessing the contribution of ethnic minorities to the productivity of the main sectors of Italian provinces. To this end, we consider the first ten nationalities by numbers of regularised persons observed at the provincial level (NUTS-3) between 2003 and 2011. We use an empirical panel growth model with spatially augmented specifications, which allows to capture both the direct (marginal) and indirect (spillover) effects of each community on local productivity at the provincial level. Our findings show that two communities out of ten have a positive impact on economic performance of Italian provinces. Other foreign groups have significant effects only indirectly, meaning that these groups do not affect growth of provinces where they live, but the neighbouring provinces likely because of commuting.
    Keywords: productivity growth, specialisation, spatial econometrics, foreigners
    JEL: R11 R12 R23
    Date: 2016–08–02
  292. By: Pestel, Nico (IZA); Schnabel, Reinhold (University of Duisburg-Essen); Siegloch, Sebastian (University of Mannheim); Sommer, Eric (IZA); Spermann, Alexander (University of Freiburg)
    Abstract: Eine steuerliche Entlastung der Mittelschicht durch eine Abflachung des Einkommensteuer-tarifs wird immer wieder von der Politik gefordert. Wir führen eine Mikrosimulation einer solchen Reform durch und analysieren die Effekte auf Fiskus, Beschäftigung und Ungleich-heit. Die zu erwartenden massiven Steuerausfälle machen flankierende Maßnahmen erforderlich. Unsere Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass es kaum politisch und rechtlich umsetz¬bare Reformen gibt, die den Aufkommensverlust wettmachen könnten und gleichzeitig die ursprüngliche Zielsetzung der Reform nicht gefährden würden.
    Keywords: Steuerreform, Einkommensteuertarif, Beschäftigungseffekte, Spitzensteuersatz, Mikrosimulation
    JEL: H24 C63
    Date: 2016–07
  293. By: Rüdiger Fahlenbrach (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - Swiss Finance Institute); Robert Prilmeier (Tulane University - A.B. Freeman School of Business); René M. Stulz (Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI))
    Abstract: From 1973 to 2014, the common stock of U.S. banks with loan growth in the top quartile of banks over a three-year period significantly underperforms the common stock of banks with loan growth in the bottom quartile over the next three years. The benchmark-adjusted cumulative difference in performance over three years exceeds twelve percentage points. The high growth banks also have significantly higher crash risk over the three-year period. This poor performance is explained by fast loan growth as asset growth separate from loan growth is not followed by poor performance. These banks reserve less for loan losses when their loans grow quickly than other banks. Subsequently, they have a lower return on assets and increase their loan loss reserves. The poorer performance of the fast growing banks is not explained by merger activity and loan growth through mergers is not accompanied by the same poor loan performance. The evidence is consistent with fast-growing banks, analysts, and investors failing to properly appreciate the extent to which the fast loan growth results from making riskier loans and failing to charge for these risks correctly.
    Keywords: Credit boom, loan growth, bank performance, bank returns, loan loss provisions
    JEL: G01 G12 G21
  294. By: Hetschko, Clemens; Schöb, Ronnie; Wolf, Tobias
    Abstract: Using specific panel data of German welfare benefit recipients, we investigate the non-pecuniary life satisfaction effects of in-work benefits. Our empirical strategy combines difference-in-difference designs with synthetic control groups to analyze transitions of workers between unemployment, regular employment and employment accompanied by welfare receipt. Working makes people generally better off than being unemployed, but employed welfare recipients do not reach the life satisfaction level of regular employees. This implies that welfare receipt entails non-compliance with the norm to make one´s own living. Our findings allow us to draw cautious conclusions on employment subsidies paid as welfare benefits.
    Keywords: life satisfaction,subsidized employment,unemployment,income support,in-work benefits,social norms
    JEL: I31 I38 J60 J68
    Date: 2016
  295. By: Tidiane Ly (Univ Lyon, CNRS, GATE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the efficiency properties of tax competition between submetropolitan jurisdictions when capital, residents and workers are mobile, and both households and firms compete for local land markets. We analyze two decentralized equilibria: (1) with a local tax on residents and two separate local taxes on capital and land inputs, efficiency is achieved and the existence of a marginal fiscal cost due to residents’ mobility is revealed; (2) combination of the taxes on capital and land inputs into a single business property tax leads local authorities to charge inefficiently high taxation on capital. We show that capital mobility induces a reduction in the business land taxation and local public inputs are used to offset the distorting effects of the property tax, accounting for the distorting impact of workers’ mobility.
    Keywords: Tax competition, Mobility, Public goods, Public inputs
    JEL: H71 H72 R50 R51
    Date: 2016
  296. By: Tiziana Medda (University of Cagliari); Vittorio Pelligra (University of Cagliari); Tommaso Reggiani (LUMSA University)
    Abstract: One of the most common criticisms about the external validity of lab experiments in economics concerns the representativeness of participants usually considered in these studies. The ever-increasing number of experiments and the prevalent location of research centers in university campuses produced a peculiar category of subjects: Students with high level of laboratory experience built through repeated participations in experimental sessions. We investigate whether the experience accumulated in this way biases subjects’ behaviour in a set of simple games widely used to study social preferences (Dictator Game, Ultimatum Game, Trust Game, and Prisoner’s Dilemma Game). Our main finding shows that subjects with a high level of experience in lab experiments do not behave in a significantly different way from novices.
    Keywords: Experimental Methodology, External Validity, Experience, Lab Experiment
    JEL: D03 D83 C91 C92
    Date: 2016–07
  297. By: S. Kuchuk-Iatsenko; Y. Mishura; Y. Munchak
    Abstract: The article is devoted to models of financial markets with stochastic volatility, which is defined by a functional of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process or Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process. We study the question of exact price of European option. The form of the density function of the random variable, which expresses the average of the volatility over time to maturity is established using Malliavin calculus.The result allows calculate the price of the option with respect to minimum martingale measure when the Wiener process driving the evolution of asset price and the Wiener process, which defines volatility, are uncorrelated.
    Date: 2016–07
  298. By: Vasilev, Aleksandar
    Abstract: This paper provides a quantitative evaluation of the welfare effect of the introduction of proportional taxation in Bulgaria in 2008, an effect that operates through the grey economy channel. Using a general-equilibrium model, augmented with informal sector, a computational experiment is performed to evaluate the welfare gain from the adoption of proportional taxation. The lower effective tax burden in the new tax regime produces a relocation of people into the official sector, stimulates investment, and increases output and consumption. Finally, under the flat tax regime, the size of the informal sector is smaller, and quantitatively consistent with OECD (2009) and European Commission (2012) figures.
    Keywords: taxation,informal sector
    JEL: D91 J46
    Date: 2015
  299. By: Naoshi Tsuchida (Deputy Director and Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies (currently Financial System and Bank Examination Department), Bank of Japan (E-mail:; Toshiaki Watanabe (Professor, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University; Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail:; Toshinao Yoshiba (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail:
    Abstract: We investigate the intraday market liquidity of the Japanese government bond (JGB) futures. First, we overview the movement of various market liquidity indicators during the past decade, classifying them into four categories: tightness, depth, resiliency, and volume. Second, using the data under the current trade time, we extract their intraday pattern and the autocorrelation. Third, we find that the announcement of economic indicator has a negative effect on these liquidity indicators while the monetary policy announcement and the surprise of economic indicator have a positive effect on volume indicators. Fourth, we show that the shock persistence in liquidity indicators rises around April 2013, and the increased persistence remains in some liquidity indicators even several months after April 2013.
    Keywords: Japanese government bond (JGB), market liquidity, liquidity indicator, transaction data
    JEL: C32 G12 G14
    Date: 2016–07
  300. By: Abdala Rioja, Yamile E
    Abstract: In recent years, there has been the common shared belief that international investors and other buyers of real estate in cash-only transactions have exercised an upward pressure in property prices in the city of San Francisco in California, the consequence being the crowding-out on buyers requiring access to credit. This paper examines real estate prices and cash sales for the period beginning after the last recession to the year 2015, as well as other significant drivers since the year 1998. The results suggest a contradiction to the cash-only claim, at the same time that they reveal a strong relationship between the technology sector and the real estate prices in the city.
    Keywords: Real Estate, Mortgage, San Francisco Tech Pulse, Business Cycles, Interest Rates
    JEL: E32 E4 R31
    Date: 2016–06–15
  301. By: Nikolova, Milena (IZA)
    Abstract: Subjective well-being (SWB) indicators, such as positive and negative emotions, life evaluations, and assessments of having purpose and meaning and life are increasingly used alongside income, employment, and consumption measures to provide a more comprehensive view of human progress. SWB measures have several advantages but also challenges which development scholars and practitioners need to carefully consider before introducing such metrics in the policy arena. This article provides an overview of the SWB approach and offers insights into whether and how SWB measures can inform development theory and practice.
    Keywords: development policy, subjective well-being, happiness, measurement
    JEL: I31 O10
    Date: 2016–07
  302. By: Ben Jann
    Abstract: This paper discusses the use of -webdoc- for creating HTML or Markdown documents from within Stata. The -webdoc- command provides a way to embed HTML or Markdown code directly in a do-file and to automate the integration of results from Stata in the final document. The command can be used, for example, to create a webpage documenting your data analysis, including all Stata output and graphs. More generally, the command can be used to create and maintain a website that contains results computed by Stata.
    Keywords: Stata, webdoc, HTML, Markdown, weaving, Stata output, Stata log, reproducible research
    JEL: C87 C88
    Date: 2016–07–27
  303. By: Uzun Vasily (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Shagaida Natalia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Gataulina Ekaterina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Yanbykh Renata (RANEPA)
    Abstract: In 2015 the war of sanctions and the shutting down of access to Russian food markets for countries included in the sanction list[1] created favourable conditions for domestic farm producers. The limiting factor was the drop of ruble exchange rate that dramatically lifted prices for many farm inputs, both imported (hybrid seeds, pesticides, breeder stock, etc.) and exported (fertilizers, fuels). Therefore, there were fears that farmers would fail to benefit from the shutting down of markets and to increase domestic agricultural output. However, farm producers did not reduce areas sown in all major crops as compared with the previous year.
    Keywords: Russian economy, import substitution, food embargo, sanctions, counter sanctions
    JEL: Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2016
  304. By: Anna L. Christensen; Dana M. Petersen; Rachel A. Burton; Vanessa C. Forsberg; Kelly J. Devers
    Abstract: The objective of this study was to describe factors that influence the ability of state Medicaid agencies to report the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ (CMS) core set of children’s health care quality measures (Child Core Set).
    Keywords: Quality measures , Medicaid , CHIPRA , Case study , Multiple-case study
    JEL: I
  305. By: Vasilev, Aleksandar
    Abstract: This paper explores the business cycle in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during the 1993-2005 period. The paper aims at deepening the understanding of the nature of output fluctuations. The neoclassical approach will be employed, much in the spirit of the Real Business Cycle (RBC) literature, which gives a general equilibrium picture of the transition process. The model used in this paper follows the methodology of King, Plosser and Rebelo (1988). Both the model and data series show that the major drop in output was due to productivity. In addition, the timing of the banking reforms coincides with the improvement of economic performance. This is a strong indication that banking regulations in place were crucial for the output performance throughout the period in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries, a finding that has important implications for economic policy.
    Keywords: Business cycles,productivity
    JEL: C68
    Date: 2016
  306. By: Bozhechkova Alexandra (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Trunin Pavel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kiyutsevskaya Anna (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2015, the Bank of Russia faced global challenges while implementing measures as part of its monetary policy. The economic situation in 2015 was marked by the following: Western sanctions and Russia’s countersanctions remained in effect, prices of Russia’s key export commodities continued to fall, economic agents’ expectations for high inflation remained intact. The sweeping depreciation of the Russian ruble in late 2014/early 2015 resulted in an inflation shock which kept the year-end inflation at high level: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 12.9% at the 2015 year-end, much higher than the 2017 mid-term target level (4%) set forth in the central bank’s Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy for 2015–2017. In its official 2015 forecast, Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development predicted inflation will not move beyond 6.3% in late 2014/early 2015, and Russia’s central bank expected it to stay at 8.2–8.7% under the baseline scenario and 9.3–9.8% under the risk scenario. At the same time, the Bank of Russia cut its key rate gradually from 17% in January down to 11% in December 2015 as inflation slowed down over the course of the year.
    Keywords: Russian economy, monetary policy, money market, exchange rate, INFLATION, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
    JEL: E31 E43 E44 E51 E52 E58
    Date: 2016
  307. By: Akitoshi Muramoto (Institute of Intellectual Property, Foundation for Intellectual Property); Ryuji Sano (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)
    Abstract: We consider sequential second-price auctions in which heterogeneous objects are sold to bidders with unit demand and a single dimensional type. We show that a symmetric increasing equilibrium exists if objects are ordered in terms of dispersiveness of value distributions. Equilibrium price declines when objects are equivalent on average and additional conditions hold.
    Keywords: sequential auctions, declining price anomaly, dispersiveness
    JEL: D44
    Date: 2016–07
  308. By: Paweł Pońsko; Bartosz Rybaczyk
    Abstract: In this note we describe, in substantial detail, the methodology behind the construction of NBP’s fan chart. This note is meant to help the readers interpret information contained in the mid-term projection, understand the differences in the predicted uncertainty between the projection rounds, and the usefulness of the projection for the monetary policy conduct. We describe the process which leads to the final projection, the methodology of estimation of the variance of the final forecast probability distribution, the method used for quantifying asymmetry of the fan chart and the role the two-piece normal distribution plays in it. Finally, we describe the analysis of the changes in the fan charts between the projection rounds and explain how the narrative associated with the projection is consistent with its assessment of risk.
    Keywords: Projection, balance of risk, variance, probability distribution, fan chart
    JEL: E31 E37 E59
    Date: 2016
  309. By: Haroon Bhorat; Tara Caetano; Benjamin Jourdan; Ravi Kanbur; Christopher Rooney; Benjamin Stanwix; Ingrid Woolard (University of Cape Town; Director and Professor)
    Abstract: Part I was completed by the DPRU and is a quantitative analysis of the feasibility of a national minimum wage for South Africa. The DPRU was commissioned by the Department of Labour to provide an analytical and empirical rubric, with which a more informed and nuanced decision could be taken around the promulgation of a NMW for South Africa. In summary, the report recommends that the South African Government consider introducing a NMW to address low wages. However, we argue that critical attention must be given to the design and implementation of the policy so that it achieves the goal of protecting workers, minimizes the potential negative consequences on employment, and ultimately succeeds in improving levels of compliance with legislated wages. Part II was completed by the CSDA and is a qualitative analysis that investigates how a national minimum wage might affect young people’s labour market outcomes in South Africa.
    Date: 2016–01
  310. By: Giulia Bettin (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali, MoFiR); Riccardo Lucchetti (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali); Claudia Pigini (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali)
    Abstract: The empirical modelling of remitting behaviour has been the object of a considerable amount of micro-level literature. The increasing availability of panel datasets makes it possible to explore the persistence in transfer decisions as a result of intertemporal choices, that may be consistent with several motivations to remit. Building a dynamic model with panel data poses the additional problem of dealing properly with permanent unobserved heterogeneity; moreover, the specific censored nature of international transfers has to be accounted for as well. In this paper, we propose a dynamic, random-effects double hurdle model for remittances: we combine the Maximum Likelihood estimator of the traditional double hurdle model for cross-section data (Jones, 1989) with the approach put forward by Heckman (1981b) for dealing with state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in a non-linear setting. Our empirical evidence based on the German SOEP dataset suggests that there is significant state dependence in remitting behaviour consistent with migrants. intertemporal allocation of savings; at the same time, transaction costs are likely to affect the steadiness of transfers over time.
    Keywords: Migration, Remittances, State dependence, Double hurdle, Intertemporal choices
    JEL: F22 F24 C23 C34 C35
    Date: 2016–07
  311. By: Böckers, Veit; Hardorp, Lilian; Haucap, Justus; Heimeshoff, Ulrich; Gösser, Niklas; Thorwarth, Susanne
    Abstract: Der vorliegende Beitrag ermittelt das aktuelle Ausmaß kommunaler Betätigung in der Abfallwirtschaft auf Basis von 9.248 deutschen Gemeinden und Städten. Vor allem in Großstädten mit über 100.000 Einwohnern haben Kommunen fast vollständig die Restmüllsammlung übernommen. Insgesamt wird über alle Kommunen zwar nur für knapp 34 % der Gebiete die Erfassung durch kommunale Unternehmen vorgenommen. Gewichtet man die jeweiligen Gebiete jedoch mit der Einwohneranzahl, entfällt insgesamt knapp 62 % der Restmüllerfassung auf kommunale Entsorgungsunternehmen. In Großstädten über 100.000 Einwohner haben sich kommunale Unternehmen sogar 94 % des Marktes gesichert. Private Entsorger dominieren hingegen vor allem im ländlichen Raum. Diese Befunde deuten auf eine Rosinenpickerei der Kommunen hin, die sich insbesondere die dicht besiedelten profitablen Gebiete herausgesucht haben. Im Vergleich zu bisher verfügbaren Statistiken über kommunale Aktivitäten in der Abfallwirtschaft (vgl. etwa Monopolkommission, 2014) zeigt sich eine weitere Zunahme der Rekommunalisierung. Sollten die Wettbewerbsbedingungen nunmehr auch in anderen Bereichen der Abfallwirtschaft, wie etwa bei Wertstoffen, zugunsten der Kommunen verzerrt werden, ist hier mit ähnlichen Rekommunalisierungstendenzen und einer Verdrängung privater Wettbewerber zu rechnen.
    Keywords: Abfallwirtschaft,Entsorgungswirtschaft,Wertstoffgesetz,Rekommunalisierung
    Date: 2016
  312. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has issued its Sustainability Report every 2 years since 2007. ADB’s Sustainability Reports allow our stakeholders to assess our operational and organizational sustainability performance and provide them with a single point of reference to understand our commitment to sustainable development. For 2016, this annual Sustainability Report highlights the integration of sustainability into ADB’s investments and organizational activities during 2015. A separate detailed Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) index contains the responses of ADB to standard and specific disclosures in the GRI’s G4 Sustainability Reporting Guidelines and G4 Financial Services Sector Guidelines. The Sustainability Report and detailed GRI Index are prepared in accordance with the G4 Sustainability Reporting Guidelines and are available online at bank-sustainability-report-2016.
    Keywords: sustainability report, ADB sustainability report, corporate sustainability report, global reporting initiative, GRI, poverty reduction, inclusive economic growth, inclusive green growth, environmental sustainability, sustainable infrastructure, governance, transparency, communication, stakeholder engagement, ethics, integrity, safeguards, grievance mechanism, poverty and social assessment, corporate social responsibility, CSR, workforce, benefits, careers, talent management, diversity, green buildings, LEED Gold certification, health and safety management, OHSAS 18001 certification, environment management, ISO 14001 certification, energy management, ISO 50001 certification, electricity consumption, GHG inventory, resource use, resource conservation, sustainable annual meeting, supply chain, green supply chain, community involvement, 2016 sustainability report, 2016 corporate sustainability report
    Date: 2016–04
  313. By: EL FAIZ, Zakaria; ZIANI, Manal
    Abstract: In an uncertain economic environment, long-term interest rates appear to be highly volatile and their sensitivity towards short-term interest rates appears to be still ambiguous. The aim of this work is to analyze this relationship, and to evaluate the impact of short-term interest rate on long-term interest rate in Morocco. We used a New Keynesian Model augmented with the term structure of interest rates, estimated with Bayesian methods on quarterly data for the period 2004-2015. The result shows that long-term interest rate increases in response to an increase in short term interest rate, which signifies that monetary policy in Morocco has the ability to influence long-term interest rates.
    Keywords: NKM Model, Monetary Policy, long-term interest rates, term structure
    JEL: E1 E12 E30 E43 E52
    Date: 2016–07
  314. By: Isaac Baley; Laura Veldkamp; Michael Waugh
    Abstract: How do information frictions affect international prices and trade? In a standard, two-country Armingtonmodel of trade, information frictions impede the coordination of exporting behavior across countries. Because the terms of trade depend on relative exports, less coordination leads to more volatile terms of trade. Volatility in the terms of trade has the potential to reduce the level of trade by making trade more risky, but it also has the potential to increase the level of trade by increasing the expected terms of trade. We derive general conditions on preferences as to which of these forces—the increase in risk or increase in return—dominate. With CES preferences, as long as goods are not too substitutable, information frictions impede trade. With empirically plausible elasticities of substitution, information frictions facilitate trade.
    Keywords: information asymmetry, globalization, risk sharing, international trade
    JEL: D5 D8 D9 F4 F6
    Date: 2016–03
  315. By: Isaac Baley; Laura Veldkamp; Michael Waugh
    Abstract: How do information frictions affect international prices and trade? In a standard, two-country Armingtonmodel of trade, information frictions impede the coordination of exporting behavior across countries. Because the terms of trade depend on relative exports, less coordination leads to more volatile terms of trade. Volatility in the terms of trade has the potential to reduce the level of trade by making trade more risky, but it also has the potential to increase the level of trade by increasing the expected terms of trade. We derive general conditions on preferences as to which of these forces—the increase in risk or increase in return—dominate. With CES preferences, as long as goods are not too substitutable, information frictions impede trade. With empirically plausible elasticities of substitution, information frictions facilitate trade.
    Keywords: information asymmetry, globalization, risk sharing, international trade
    JEL: D5 D8 D9 F4 F6
    Date: 2016–07
  316. By: Ivlevs, Artjoms (University of the West of England, Bristol)
    Abstract: While there has been a growing interest in the relationship between perceived tourism impacts and residents' quality of life, little is known about how residents' well-being is affected by actual tourist arrivals. This paper studies the effect of international tourist arrivals on the subjective well-being – happiness and life satisfaction – of residents in European countries. Data come from the six waves of the European Social Survey, conducted in 32 countries in 2002-2013. The results suggest that tourist arrivals reduce residents' life satisfaction. This negative relationship tends to be more pronounced in countries where tourism intensity is relatively high, as well as among people living in rural areas. In addition, tourist arrivals have a greater negative relationship with the evaluative component of subjective well-being (life satisfaction) than its affective component (happiness).
    Keywords: life satisfaction, happiness, tourist arrivals, Europe
    JEL: L83 Z3
    Date: 2016–07
  317. By: Diana Ioana POPA (National Institute of Statistics, Romania); Nicoleta CARAGEA (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest)
    Abstract: Employment statistics are key indicators in analyzing the developments in labor markets, which can be used to study the level of economic and social development of a country. In this research study descriptive statistics tools were applied to study the patterns of employment in Romania. The result offers an overview over the specifics of employment in this country. Data source used in this study is the Labor Force Survey, carried out by the National Institute of Statistics Romania. This research will contribute in describing the economic and social life of Romania, as well as a comparison tool in regard with other countries of the European Union.
    Keywords: employment, patterns, labor force
    JEL: A13 C18 J01 J21
    Date: 2016–04
  318. By: Dorin JULA (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy and Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest); Nicoleta JULA ("Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest)
    Abstract: In the paper, we use Kaya identity and the cointegration relationship between the dynamics of population, economic growth, energy intensity of gross domestic product and carbon intensity of energy produced in order to estimate, on long-run, the greenhouse gas emissions.
    Keywords: Kaya identity, greenhouse gas emissions, panel data model
    JEL: C33 Q54
    Date: 2016–04
  319. By: Drichoutis, Andreas C.; Klonaris, Stathis; Papoutsi, Georgia
    Abstract: We evaluate the claim that bottle size formats signal quality changes, using a controlled laboratory experiment where we simultaneously auctioned two different sweet wines: a pomegranate wine and a grape wine. We varied on a between subjects basis the size of the bottle, from 500ml to 750ml, but kept the wine content of the bottle constant across bottle size formats. We also explored in a within subjects design the effect of expectations for the wines, blind tasting and information on willingness to pay. For the grape wine we find evidence consistent with diminishing marginal utility while for the pomegranate wine we find a premium for the smaller bottle size which is consistent with changes in perceived scarcity of the wine. We also find that information is adequate in offsetting the negative effect from the tasting treatment.
    Keywords: second price auction; laboratory experiment; wine; sensory analysis; willingness to pay; bottle size effect
    JEL: C23 C24 C91 D12 M31
    Date: 2016–07–26
  320. By: Giovanni Ferri (LUMSA University); Pierluigi Murro (LUMSA University)
    Abstract: The first wave of the global financial crisis – emanating from the US subprime debacle and the bankruptcy of Lehman – hit Europe in the last part of 2008 and through 2009. Coupled with it was the Great Trade Collapse (GTC), whereby trade crumpled intensely. With banks in a tailspin, credit rationing intensified – as measured in various different ways – particularly for the small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). The extent of such retrenchment in the supply of credit could reflect not only the worsened general condition of the European banks but also vary at the micro level depending on the lending technologies being used in the firm-main bank rapport. Using the EFIGE database, we try to assess the extent to which differences in the lending technologies affect export and foreign activities in seven EU countries (Austria, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Spain and the UK).
    Keywords: Bank-Firm Relationships, Lending Technologies, Trade.
    JEL: G21 D82 F10
    Date: 2016–07
  321. By: Mamedov Arseny (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Fomina Elena (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Belev Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2015, the general government increased their budget revenues in absolute terms by Rb 123bn from 2014, however the revenues dropped by 0.9 percentage points of GDP and by 13% in real terms (including CPI). The general government increased their budget expenditure both in nominal terms and as a percentage of GDP by 1.5 percentage points of GDP, whereas expenditure in real terms were cut by 7% over values seen in 2014. As a result, the general government ran their budget with a deficit of 3.5% of GDP (the 2014 budget deficit was 1.1% of GDP). Note that the 2015 deficit was many times the value recorded in 2013–2014, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP, whereas a surplus was recorded in 2011–2012. Thus, in 2015 Russia’s budget system saw its balance deteriorate seriously over values seen in 2011–2014.
    Keywords: Russian economy, budget system, tax revenues, budget parameters
    JEL: H61 H62
    Date: 2016
  322. By: Vasilev, Aleksandar
    Abstract: This paper is a first attempt to provide a quantitative evaluation of the welfare gains resulting from the introduction of flat income taxation in Bulgaria in 2008. Using a calibrated micro-founded endogenous growth model with physical and human capital accumulation to Bulgarian data, a computational experiment is performed to quantify the dynamic welfare effect of progressive income taxation vis-a-vis flat income taxation. The model demonstrates that significant welfare gains, measured in terms of per-period consumption, can be realized with the introduction of flat income taxation. In addition, these welfare gains increase proportionally with the length of the time horizon considered. Finally, sensitivity analysis was performed to demonstrate that the results obtained are robust.
    Keywords: taxation,endogenous growth,human capital,welfare gains
    JEL: D91 O41
    Date: 2015
  323. By: Albarrán, Irene; Marín, J. Miguel; Alonso, Pablo J.; Benchimol, A.
    Abstract: Forecasting mortality rates has become a key task for all who are concerned with payments for non-active people, such as Social Security or life insurance firms managers. The non-ending process of reduction in the mortality rates is forcing to continuously improve the models used to project these variables. Traditionally, actuaries have selected just one model, supposing that this model were able to generate the observed data. Most times the results have driven to a set of questionable decisions linked to those projections. This way to act does not consider the model uncertainty when selecting a specific one. This drawback can be reduced through model assembling. This technique is based on using the results of a set of models in order to get better results. In this paper we introduce two approaches to ensemble models: a classical one, based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC), and a Bayesian model averaging method. The data are referred to a Spanish male population and they have been obtained from the Human Mortality Database. We have used four of the most widespread models to forecast mortality rates (Lee-Carter, Renshaw-Haberman, Cairns-Blake-Dowd and its generalization for including cohort effects) together with their respective Bayesian specifications. The results suggest that using assembling models techniques gets more accurate predictions than those with the individual models.
    Keywords: Renshaw-Haberman model; projected life tables; longevity risk; Lee-Carter model; Cairns-Blake-Dowd model; bootstrap; Bayesian model averaging; AIC model averaging
    Date: 2016–07
  324. By: Martin, Albert
    Abstract: Der vorliegende Beitrag berichtet über empirische Ergebnisse zur Arbeitszufriedenheit und zu den Arbeitsbedingungen von ausländischen Arbeitnehmern. Er stützt sich dabei auf die Daten des Sozioökonomischen Panels. Betrachtet werden Personen, die aus den sogenannten Gastarbeiterländern Türkei, Italien, Spanien, Griechenland und dem ehemaligen Jugoslawien stammen. Außerdem erfolgt eine Eingrenzung auf die Gruppe der Arbeiter. Umfängliche Untersuchungen zur Arbeitssituation der ausländischen Arbeitnehmer wurden insbesondere in den 1970er Jahren angestellt, so auch im Mannheim-Paderborner Ausländerprojekt, auf dessen Hauptergebnisse im vorliegenden Beitrag ebenfalls kurz eingegangen wird. Daran anknüpfend geht es im Weiteren um die Frage, ob sich in den letzten 30 Jahren die Arbeitsbedingungen und der Arbeitszufriedenheit der ausländischen Arbeiter merklich verändert haben.
    Date: 2016
  325. By: Robert Garlick; Kate Orkin; Simon Quinn
    Abstract: High-frequency data is useful to measure volatility, reduce recall bias, and measure dynamic treatment effects. We conduct the first experimental evaluation of high-frequency phone surveys in a developing country or with microenterprises. We randomly assign microenterprise owners to monthly in-person, weekly inperson, or weekly phone interviews. We find high-frequency phone surveys are useful and accurate. Phone and in-person surveys yield similar measurements, with few large or significant differences in reported outcome means or distributions. Neither interview frequency nor medium affects reported outcomes in a common in-person endline. Phone surveys reduce costs without increasing permanent attrition from the panel.
    Date: 2016
  326. By: Pischke, Jörn-Steffen (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: Many economists suspect that downward nominal wage rigidities in ongoing labor contracts are an important source of employment fluctuations over the business cycle but there is little direct empirical evidence on this conjecture. This paper compares three occupations in the housing sector with very different wage setting institutions, real estate agents, architects, and construction workers. I study the wage and employment responses of these occupations to the housing cycle, a proxy for labor demand shocks to the industry. The employment of real estate agents, whose pay is far more flexible than the other occupations, indeed reacts less to the cycle than employment in the other occupations. However, unless labor demand elasticities are large, the estimates do not suggest that the level of wage flexibility enjoyed by real estate agents would buffer employment fluctuations in response to demand shocks by more than 10 to 20 percent compared to completely rigid wages.
    Keywords: wage setting, wage rigidity, commissions, real estate agents, architects, construction workers
    JEL: E24 J20 J44
    Date: 2016–07
  327. By: Pischke, Jörn-Steffen
    Abstract: Many economists suspect that downward nominal wage rigidities in ongoing labor contracts are an important source of employment fluctuations over the business cycle but there is little direct empirical evidence on this conjecture. This paper compares three occupations in the housing sector with very different wage setting institutions, real estate agents, architects, and construction workers. I study the wage and employment responses of these occupations to the housing cycle, a proxy for labor demand shocks to the industry. The employment of real estate agents, whose pay is far more flexible than the other occupations, indeed reacts less to the cycle than employment in the other occupations. However, unless labor demand elasticities are large, the estimates do not suggest that the level of wage flexibility enjoyed by real estate agents would buffer employment fluctuations in response to demand shocks by more than 10 to 20 percent compared to completely rigid wages.
    Keywords: architects; commissions; construction workers; real estate agents; wage rigidity; Wage setting
    JEL: E24 J20 J44
    Date: 2016–07
  328. By: Marie Masclet de Barbarin (CEFF - Centre d'Etudes Fiscales et Financières - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université)
    Abstract: La protection des droits des contribuables face à la mise en œuvre des prérogatives de l'administration fiscale constitue une thématique qui a toujours été chère au professeur Louit. Il m'a conduit à m'y intéresser dès les premiers temps de l'étude du sujet de thèse qu'il m'avait alors confié sur le contentieux du recouvrement de l'impôt. L'exercice du pouvoir de l'administration fiscale dans la mise en œuvre du recouvrement forcé et le caractère particulièrement sévère du régime contentieux qui en découle traduit incontestablement un déséquilibre que l'impérieuse nécessité de recouvrer l'impôt ne peut { lui seul suffire à justifier. Cette situation se retrouve bien souvent en matière fiscale. Elle prend sa source au sein même des règles de procédure tant contentieuse que non contentieuses, avec comme postulat légitime l'affirmation implicite selon laquelle le contribuable n'est pas un administré comme un autre. Lorsque néanmoins ces déséquilibres apparaissent comme trop flagrants ou lorsqu'ils sont dénoncés un peu plus bruyamment que d'ordinaire par les contribuables, par leurs conseils ou par la communauté scientifique, force est de constater que le juge est bien souvent plus prompt que le législateur à œuvrer en faveur du respect d'un seuil minimal de garanties pour le contribuable 1. Le Conseil d'état vient une fois encore d'en apporter la preuve s'agissant de la limitation du droit de reprise de l'administration fiscale.
    Keywords: droits du contribuable, administration fiscale,droit fiscal, prescription
    Date: 2015
  329. By: Fei Fang; Yiwei Sun; Konstantinos Spiliopoulos
    Abstract: The goal of this paper is to study organized flocking behavior and systemic risk in heterogeneous mean-field interacting diffusions. We illustrate in a number of case studies the effect of heterogeneity in the behavior of systemic risk in the system. We also investigate the effect of heterogeneity on the "flocking behavior" of different agents, i.e., when agents with different dynamics end up behaving the same way in path space and follow closely the mean behavior of the system. Using Laplace asymptotics, we derive an asymptotic formula for the tail of the loss distribution as the number of agents grows to infinity. This characterizes the tail of the loss distribution and the effect of the heterogeneity of the network on the tail loss probability.
    Date: 2016–07
  330. By: Foreman-Peck, James (Cardiff Business School); Zhou, Peng (Cardiff Business School)
    Abstract: Households may migrate between jurisdictions to secure preferred mixes of collectively sup-plied services and taxation. But devolution of taxes to sub-national jurisdictions could reduce expected tax revenue if some move to lower tax regimes, constraining devolved government policy. This paper develops an indirect approach to establish lower bound tax revenue impacts of possible tax changes by devolved governments. We estimate and aggregate migration responses to existing tax differentials between smaller, component administrative areas of the devolved jurisdictions. Because such existing taxes may have different bases from proposed devolved taxes, appropriate corrections are made in a model of the devolved economy. This model also establishes how the tax base and therefore the tax yield of the devolved economy, as well as the output per capita, would be changed by implementing different tax rates, given the migration responses estimated. The model is used to assess the fiscal possibilities for Wales created by the UK Government of Wales Act 2014.
    Keywords: Migration; Fiscal Decentralisation; Tax Revenue
    JEL: R23 J61 H11 H22 H71 H72 H77
    Date: 2016–07
  331. By: Van de Kassteele, Jan; Lee, Dae-Jin; Durbán, María; Ayma Anza, Diego Armando
    Abstract: Epidemiological data are frequently recorded at coarse spatio-temporal resolutions. The aggregation process is done for several reasons: to protect confidential patients' information, to compare with other datasets at a coarser resolution than the original, or to summarize data in a compact manner. However, we lose detailed patterns that follow the original data, which can be of interest for researchers and public health officials. In this paper we propose the use of the penalized composite link model (Eilers, 2007), together with its mixed model representation, to estimate the underlying trend behind grouped data at a finer spatio-temporal resolution. Also, this model allows the incorporation of fine-scale population into the estimation procedure. We assume the underlying trend is smooth across space and time. The mixed model representation enables the use of sophisticated algorithms such as the SAP algorithm of RodríguezÁlvarez et al. (2015) for fast estimation of the amount of smoothness. We illustrate our proposal with the analysis of data obtained during the largest outbreak of Q fever in the Netherlands.
    Keywords: Spatio-temporal disaggregation; SAP algorithm; Q fever incidence; Penalized composite link models
    Date: 2016–07–25
  332. By: Carlos Thomas (Banco de España); Galo Nuño (Banco de España)
    Abstract: We investigate the trade-o¤s between price stability and sovereign debt sustainability, in a small-open-economy model where the government issues nominal debt without committing not to default or inflate. Inflation allows to absorb the e¤ect of aggregate shocks on the debt ratio, which improves sovereign debt sustainability. But the government incurs an ‘inflationary bias’: it creates (costly) inflation even when default is distant. For plausible calibrations, we find that abandoning the ability to inflate debt away raises welfare, even when the economy is close to default: the benefits from eliminating the inflationary bias dominate the costs from losing inflation’s debt-stabilizing role.
    Date: 2016
  333. By: Judith Diers; Prerna Banati; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti
    Abstract: Advocacy and action for adolescents have been hampered by the lack of a concrete results framework that can be used to describe the state of the world’s adolescents and serve as a basis for goals and targets. In order to fill this gap, UNICEF, in collaboration with key partners, is facilitating the development of an outcome-based framework that incorporates the key dimensions of an adolescent’s life and a proposed set of globally comparable indicators that will provide a common platform to track the progress of adolescent development and well-being. The domains that have been selected for measurement are: health and well-being, education and learning, safety and protection, participation, transition to work.
    Keywords: adolescents; employment policy; health programmes; research;
    Date: 2016
  334. By: Lenka Stastna (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes local political cycle in Czech municipalities over the period between 1997 and 2013. We apply the system GMM and the difference GMM estimators to identify distortion in current and capital expenditures per capita in electoral and pre-electoral years, while focusing on various spending groups (infrastructure, leisure, housing, education, etc.). We also test specific effects of local governments' characteristics (partisanship, strength, experience). In general, municipalities increase capital spending (primarily on infrastructure, housing, leisure activities) and decrease current spending (administration) before elections. Rightist governments target leisure activities and save more on administration, whereas leftist governments target current spending on social services. Stronger governments and those with newly elected mayors have lower incentive to create an electoral cycle. Voters' involvement in local policies and also success of ruling local (and parliamentary) parties in nat ional parliamentary elections diminish local electoral cycles.
    Keywords: political cycle, local government expenditures, municipalities
    JEL: H72 D72 R50
    Date: 2015–12
  335. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Office of the Special Project Facilitator, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Office of the Special Project Facilitator, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: The Accountability Mechanism in 2015—the 12th year of its implementation—concentrated on building skills and capacity, both within ADB including resident mission staff and externally among implementing agencies and other stakeholders. Country-specific training programs, outreach, workshops, and consultations were held in and for Cambodia, People’s Republic of China (PRC), Fiji, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Samoa, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Coordination was initiated with the two new development banks in the PRC: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and New Development Bank. Office of the Special Project Facilitator (OSPF) resolved one complaint in Nepal, while Office of the Compliance Review Panel (OCRP) submitted one compliance review report for India, an eligibility report (Cambodia), and annual monitoring reports on several cases (Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Philippines). And a joint learning report was prepared by OSPF, OCRP, Independent Evaluation Department, and Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department.
    Keywords: Accountability Mechanism, Annual Report 2015, 2015 Accountability Mechanism Annual Report, AM Report 2015
    Date: 2016–04
  336. By: Philipp Poppitz
    Abstract: This paper examines subjective social status to test whether individual comparisons are driven by income and wealth, or social and cultural capital as defined by Bourdieu. The empirical analysis uses a cross-sectional data set of 18 European countries and a mixed model with an MCMC estimation method. The results show that material factors are just as important as non-material factors. Besides income and wealth, other dimensions of inequality including education, occupational prestige, parental background and working status are important factors to explain the gap between the income distribution and subjective social status. The most relevant institutions to explain the cross-country differences within Europe are the GDP level, average health and the education system, which also moderates the relevance of wealth on subjective social status.
    Keywords: Inequality, Perception, Social Status, Bourdieu, Education
    JEL: D31 C21 I24 Z13
    Date: 2016
  337. By: L. Rachel Ngai (Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEP); Economics Department London School of Economics (LSE); Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)); Kevin Sheedy (Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEP); Economics Department London School of Economics (LSE); Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM))
    Abstract: Using data on house sales and inventories, this paper shows that housing-market dynamics are driven mainly by listings and less so by transaction speed, thus the decision to move house is key to understanding the housing market. The paper builds a model where moving house is essentially an investment in match quality, implying that moving depends on macroeconomic developments and housing-market conditions. The endogeneity of moving means there is a cleansing effect - those at the bottom of the match quality distribution move first - which generates overshooting in aggregate variables. The model is applied to the 1995{2004 housing-market boom.
    Keywords: Housing market, Search and Matching, Endogenous moving, Match quality investment
    JEL: D83 E22 R31
    Date: 2016–06
  338. By: Gutierrez, Italo A.; Molina, Oswaldo
    Abstract: Titling programs have focused only on providing initial tenure security, but have not paid attention to the process of maintaining the formality of future property transactions. Evidence shows that properties become de-regularized due to unregistered transactions in urban slums, reducing the households' ability to reap the potential benefits of tenure security in the future. We exploit a natural experiment provided by the elimination of a registration system targeted to the poor in Peru to identify the effects of increasing the costs and complexity of registering property transactions in urban areas. We found that the elimination of such system led to a significant reduction in the probability of registering a transaction, including those transactions that involved a change in ownership. This presents an important threat to maintaining the benefits of the titling reform in the long run.
    Date: 2016–07
  339. By: Raphaële Préget (LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - UM3 - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - INRA Montpellier - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Phu Nguyen Van (UMR Beta - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marc Willinger (LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - UM3 - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - INRA Montpellier - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Montpellier)
    Abstract: We rely on the methodology of Fischbacher et al. (2001) in order to identify subjects’ behavioral types. We then link the likelihood to act as a leader in a repeated public goods game to the elicited behavioral types. The leader in a group is defined as the subject who voluntarily decides in the first place about his contribution. The leader’s contribution is then reported publicly to the remaining group members who take their contribution decisions simultaneously. Our main findings are that leaders emerge in almost all rounds and that subjects who are identified as conditional cooperators are more likely to act as leaders than other types, e.g. free-riders or triangle-contributors. We also find that voluntary leaders, irrespective of their behavioral type, contribute always more than followers. However the presence of leadership does not prevent the decay that is commonly observed in linear public goods experiments.
    Keywords: Voluntary Contribution Mechanism,Leadership,Public Goods,Experimental Economics
    Date: 2016
  340. By: Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Over the course of 2015, the average money income in nominal terms increased by 10.1%, to Rb 30,311 per capita. Although the year 2015 saw a rise in the growth rate of nominal money incomes relative to 2014, a 12.9% increase in consumer prices caused a sharp decline in the indicators of the standard of living in real terms. In 2015, the real disposable incomes of the population, real wages, and the real size of allotted pension amounted to 96.0%, 90.5% and 96.2% respectively, of their values in 2014
    Keywords: Russian economy, living standard, money income, spending of the population
    JEL: I31 I32
    Date: 2016
  341. By: Marine Carrasco; Barbara Rossi
    Abstract: This paper considers in-sample prediction and out-of-sample forecasting in regressions with many exogenous predictors. We consider four dimension reduction devices: principal components, Ridge, Landweber Fridman, and Partial Least Squares. We derive rates of convergence for two representative models: an ill-posed model and an approximate factor model. The theory is developed for a large cross-section and a large time-series. As all these methods depend on a tuning parameter to be selected, we also propose data-driven selection methods based on cross- validation and establish their optimality. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application to forecasting inflation and output growth in the U.S. show that data-reduction methods out- perform conventional methods in several relevant settings, and might effectively guard against instabilities in predictors' forecasting ability.
    Keywords: Forecasting, regularization methods, factor models, Ridge, partial least squares, principal components, sparsity, large datasets, variable selection, GDP forecasts, inflation forecasts
    JEL: C22 C52 C53
    Date: 2016–04
  342. By: Antoni, Manfred (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Ganzer, Andreas (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); vom Berge, Philipp (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
    Abstract: "The SIAB is produced at the Research Data Centre (FDZ) of the Federal Employment Agen-cy (BA) at the IAB. The SIAB covers the employment histories of 1,757,925 individuals, and their employment biographies are documented in a total of 58,220,255 lines of data. This Datenreport describes the variables of the weakly anonymous version of the SIAB, which largely comprises the original data, i.e. data which have not undergone anonymisation processes. In order to protect the anonymity of the data subjects, some variables are classi-fied as particularly sensitive and are only disclosed on submission of a special application (see Section 1.2). The Datenreport on the SIAB is structured as follows. Besides the introduction, Section 1 contains information on data access as well as an outline of the data, the volume structure and a list of variables. A description of the individual data sources can be found in Section 2. Data preparation and data quality are discussed in Sections 3 and 4, whilst the individual variables are described in Section 5." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) Additional Information Auszählungen frequencies and labels
    Keywords: Integrierte Arbeitsmarktbiografien, Datensatzbeschreibung, Datenanonymisierung, Datenzugang, Datenaufbereitung, Stichprobe, Datenqualität
    Date: 2016–07–28
  343. By: Zatsepin Vasily (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Tsymbal Vitaly (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Unlike previous years, the findings of analysis of Russia’s military economics and policy in 2015 fail to match what is perceived as absolute peacetime. The IISS, a world-leading authority on global security, argues that Russia is conducting a so-called hybrid warfare. The published views of western experts on hybrid warfare reflect the events occurred in Ukraine over the last two years. The spring of 2015 saw changes in accusations against Russia following Russia’s air strikes and cruise missiles strikes on the positions of ISIS terrorists in Syria. The fact that Russia is conducting special-purpose military operations is indisputable. Russia took the terrorist attack that brought down the Russian plane in Egypt, killing all 224 Russian passengers on board, as military assault against Russia’s nationals, thus forcing Russia to introduce retaliatory military counteractions against not only the ISIS in Syria but also against organizers and sponsors of terrorism. Later there were acts of terrorism in France, that prompted the French government to join the war against the ISIS, acting in conjunction with Russia and with a few other countries. Being unhappy with these developments, the Turkish government prepared the shoot down of a Russian military jet along the Syrian border. Russia responded with economic countersanctions, warning more sanctions could follow. Therefore, it appears logical that a new version of the Russian Federation National Security Strategy (Executive Order of the President No. 683 dated December 31, 2015) was approved on the very last day of 2015 .
    Keywords: Russian economy, military-industrial complex, military reform, defense order, military procurement, defense control
    JEL: D74 F52 H56 F51
    Date: 2016
  344. By: Shashi Pandey
    Abstract: One of the most significant social changes over the past 10 years in Allahabad is the membership of women in SHGs (Self-Help Group) through the intervention of Block and bank initiatives. The group based lending with new norms has generated new role of women at family and community level. This economic tie has positively influenced their social relations and actions. In present time 99 percent of the household women have engaged from the SHGs in the village and as a ‘peer group’ they spread all over the village. So, present paper examines that in how political sphere is affected due to existence of SHGs in village. This study is based on the interviews of 45 women members of SHGs in which 15 members from OBC SHG, 15 from SC and remaining 15 from mixed caste SHGs from Hathiganha village in Allahabad district, Uttar Pradesh. Study reveals that women become important for the pachayat election due to the membership of SHG while before joining the SHG male members of the family were more involved in political issues and women have passively obeyed the male members of the family on such issues. Key words: SHGs, Women, political participation
    Date: 2016–06
  345. By: Singh, Prakarsh (Amherst College); Mitra, Sandip (Indian Statistical Institute)
    Abstract: We carry out a randomized controlled experiment in West Bengal, India to test three separate performance pay treatments in the public health sector. Performance is judged on improvements in child malnutrition. We exogenously change wages of government employed child care workers through either absolute or relative incentives. We also test for the impact of high and low absolute incentives. Results show that high absolute incentives reduce severe malnutrition by 6.3 percentage points over three months. Result is consistent with a reported increase in protein-rich diet at home in the high absolute treatment. There are no significant effects on health outcomes of other incentive arms. Results remain robust to propensity score matching, reversion- to-mean and a placebo check.
    Keywords: performance pay, child malnutrition, absolute and relative incentives
    JEL: M52 I12 I38 J38
    Date: 2016–07
  346. By: Daniel Teles (Department of Economics, Tulane University)
    Abstract: The majority of U.S. states have implemented tax credits that encourage donating to specific classes of nonprofits. However, the effect on the nonprofits themselves is unknown. This paper estimates the causal effect of two of the costliest programs. Arizona’s Working Poor Tax Credit (WPTC) and the Endow Iowa Tax Credit (“Endow Iowa†) provide stark contrast for analysis. The WPTC, the largest tax credit for charitable giving in terms of tax expenditure, provides a broadly targeted 100 percent credit with a cap of $200 per person. Endow Iowa provides a sharply targeted 25 percent credit with a cap of $300,000 per tax-payer. A model of donor budget constraints and preferences suggests that Endow Iowa has greater potential to induce large increases in contributions to its targeted charities than does the WPTC. Using synthetic control methods to construct counterfactuals, I estimate a 125 percent increase in contributions to community foundations in Iowa. In contrast, I find no evidence that the WPTC increased contributions to the targeted Arizona nonprofits. Evidence suggests that the growth in contribution levels in Iowa included increases in both the number of community foundations and the level of contributions per foundation.
    Keywords: Tax credits, tax incentive, subsidies, state taxation, charity, nonprofits, philanthropy.
    JEL: D64 L30 L38 H24 H71
    Date: 2016–06
  347. By: Giovanni Marin (IRCrES-CNR, Milano, Italy); Roberto Zoboli (DISEIS, Catholic University of Milano, Italy)
    Abstract: The structural change of the economy towards an increasing share of services is seen in environmental economics as a fundamental driver of ‘decoupling’ between economic growth and environmental pressures. The environmental and socio-economic consequence of structural change, however, can be less straightforward when economic interdependencies are considered. In this paper we evaluate the implications of structural change towards services in the EU in terms of environmental pressures (aggregate and by sector, direct and indirect). The changing patterns in environmental pressures are analyses vis à vis the corresponding changes in the distribution of employment and value added. For carrying out this integrated assessment we use Environmentally Extended Multi Regional Input Output modelling applied to data from the World Input Output Database (WIOD). The results suggest that the service sectors is characterized by a lower emission intensity than the industrial sectors, when looking at direct emissions (‘production perspective’) but this gap is much smaller when considering also indirect emissions in a ‘vertically integrated’ approach (‘consumption perspective’). Moreover, changes in the production structure of the EU economy in absence of relevant changes in the composition of the final demand induce an increased reliance on environmental pressures, employment and value added generated abroad. The integrated assessment of these ‘global footprints’ suggests that the EU is transferring worldwide more emissions that value added and employment. This form of ‘unequal exchange’ can be relevant for development and environmental policies, in particular those on global climate change.
    Keywords: EE-MRIO; structural change; carbon leakage; production and consumption perspective; international trade
    JEL: C67 F18 Q52 Q55 Q56
    Date: 2016–08
  348. By: Song, Lina (University of Nottingham); Appleton, Simon (University of Nottingham); Liang, Zhe (University of Nottingham)
    Abstract: The rapid growth of informal employment in China in recent decades has attracted attention, but to understand its implications, the concept of informality must be deconstructed. We reclassify employment status into three categories: salaried workers who have long-term contracts; the self-employed; and causal workers without long term contracts (working in either the formal or the informal sector). The monthly earnings of the self-employed are much (47%) higher than those casual employees. Self-employment is not necessarily a misfortune and the flexibility it provides may be optimal for some kinds of workers. For example, the self-employed are more likely to be disabled and to have young families. Institutionally, it is still difficult for casual workers and most rural-urban migrant workers to embark on business ownership. Although a large group of rural-urban migrants are employees with longer term contracts, their rural registration (hukou) means they lack the social protection of urban residents. The labour force with rural hukou is more likely to fall into the informal sector and, within that sector, is most likely to be engaged in casual labouring jobs. Policies to support small businesses may be warranted given the detrimental impacts of informality on casual workers. Experimental interventions could be tried along the lines of those used in Peru to provide funds to support entrepreneurial activities by this group to lift themselves out of a poverty trap into more sustainable employment. Skill training, encouragement for innovation, tax credits and reducing institutional constraints on starting up small business should be all considered.
    Keywords: informality, vulnerability, self-employment, casual labour, China
    JEL: J24 J46 J48
    Date: 2016–07
  349. By: Coen N. Teulings
    Abstract: Bubbles are usually viewed as a threat to financial stability. This paper takes a more nuanced view. The world economy is going through an episode of Secular Stagnation, where the equilibrium rate of return on capital r is below the growth rate of the economy g. As is well known, rational bubbles are sustainable when r?g in a steady state equilibrium. Bubbles can then implement a dynamically efficient equilibrium. We show that from a structural point of view, bubbles, Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) pensions and sovereign debt are perfect substitutes. However, when dealing with unexpected short run fluctuations in investment, sovereign debt is far more efficient than bubbles in shifting consumption over time and in risk sharing between generations. An increase in sovereign debt is therefore an efficient response to Secular Stagnation. Instead, the current Stability and Growth Pact for the Euro-zone embarks on an opposite course.
    Keywords: bubbles, dynamic efficiency, fiscal policy, Secular Stagnation
    JEL: E44 E62
    Date: 2016–07–27
  350. By: Christoph Czichowsky; R\'emi Peyre; Walter Schachermayer; Junjian Yang
    Abstract: We continue the analysis of our previous paper (Czichowsky/Schachermayer/Yang 2014) pertaining to the existence of a shadow price process for portfolio optimisation under proportional transaction costs. There, we established a positive answer for a continuous price process $S=(S_t)_{0\leq t\leq T}$ satisfying the condition $(NUPBR)$ of "no unbounded profit with bounded risk". This condition requires that $S$ is a semimartingale and therefore is too restrictive for applications to models driven by fractional Brownian motion. In the present paper, we derive the same conclusion under the weaker condition $(TWC)$ of "two way crossing", which does not require $S$ to be a semimartingale. Using a recent result of R.~Peyre, this allows us to show the existence of a shadow price for exponential fractional Brownian motion and $all$ utility functions defined on the positive half-line having reasonable asymptotic elasticity. Prime examples of such utilities are logarithmic or power utility.
    Date: 2016–08
  351. By: Lotti, Guili (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)
    Abstract: How harshly should society punish young lawbreakers in order to prevent or reduce their criminal activity in the future? Through a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we shed light on the question by exploiting two quasi-natural experiments stemming to compate outcomes from relatively harsh and rehabilitative criminal incarceration practices involving young offenders in the 1980's in England and Wales. According to our local linear regression estimates, young offenders exposed to the harsher youth facilities are 20.7 percent more likley to recidivate in the nine years subsequent to their custody, and they commit on average 2.84 offences more than offenders who experienced prison. Moreover, they are more likely to commit violent offences, thefts, burglaries and robberies. On the contrary, offenders who were sent to the more rehabilitative youth facilities are less likely to reoffend in the future compared to offenders sent to prison. We conclude that it is effective to keep young offenders from their older peers in prison, but only when they are held in institutions that are not solely focussed on punishment.
    Keywords: young offenders, recidivism, custodial sentence, crime, deterrence effects.
    JEL: I30 I31
    Date: 2016
  352. By: Yure Lage Nuic; Cleysson Ribeiro Vieira; Marcos Soares da Silva
    Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the main determinant factors of the new prudential liquidity requirement, the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), and assesses the possible impacts of its implementation on the Brazilian banking system. To this end, a dynamic panel of 131 financial institutions was estimated for the period between 2008 and 2014. The results indicate that the cost of adjusting the structural liquidity of Brazilian banks is relatively moderate, requiring about eight quarters for a complete absorption of an exogenous shock. Additionally, the results do not indicate that the NSFR has a negative impact on banks’ profitability, as measured by the adjusted return on average assets (ROAA). This suggests a compatibility between lower structural liquidity risk and higher profitability in the long run. Finally, the NSFR presented itself countercyclical, showing its ability to mitigate excessive growth of banking operations during the phase of economic expansion, contributing to the stability of the financial system
    Date: 2016–06
  353. By: Jo Van Biesebroeck; Joep Konings; C.V. Martincus
    Abstract: In the global recession of 2009, exports declined precipitously in many countries. We illustrate with firm-level data for Belgium and Peru that the decline was very sudden and almost entirely due to lower export sales by existing exporters. After the recession, exports rebounded almost equally quickly and we evaluate whether export promotion programs were an effective tool aiding this recovery. We show that firms taking advantage of this type of support did better during the crisis, controlling flexibly for systematic differences between supported and control firms. The primary mechanism we identify is that supported firms are generally more likely to survive on the export market and, in particular, are more likely to continue exporting to countries hit by the financial crisis.
    Date: 2016–01
  354. By: Manes, Eran (Jerusalem College of Technology (JTC)); Schneider, Friedrich (University of Linz); Tchetchik, Anat (Ben Gurion University)
    Abstract: A large number of empirical studies pointed to the ongoing expansion of the shadow economy in many countries around the globe. A robust finding in these studies is the positive association between unemployment rates and the size of the unofficial sector. However, with consistent estimates of the size of the unofficial sector only available from the late 1980s, a lack of sufficient time span dictated the use of static models, allowing only a limited understanding of its temporal behavior and interdependence with other covariates. In this paper, we offer a first systematic attempt to estimate the dynamics of the shadow economy, using advanced dynamic panel techniques. Based on insights from a simple job search model of unemployment that features decreasing returns to unofficial activities and congestion effects in job searching, we conjecture a long-run equilibrium relationship between unemployment and the size of the shadow economy. Our empirical model lends strong support to this view. We find that in countries with less stringent job market regulation the long-run impact of Unemployment, the tax burden, and GDP on the shadow economy, while positive and significant, is much smaller than in heavily regulated countries Moreover, the speed of adjustment back to long-run equilibrium following temporary shocks is shown to be three times faster in countries with looser job-market regulation, compared with countries with stricter regulation. These findings have important policy implications.
    Keywords: shadow economy, boundaries to the shadow economy, unemployment, taxation, regulation
    JEL: C32 H11 H26 I2 O17 P16 P48
    Date: 2016–07
  355. By: S. Agarwal; D. Ghosh; A. S. Chakrabarti
    Abstract: In this paper we consider a distributed coordination game played by a large number of agents with finite information sets, which characterizes emergence of a single dominant attribute out of a large number of competitors. Formally, $N$ agents play a coordination game repeatedly which has exactly $N$ Nash equilibria and all of the equilibria are equally preferred by the agents. The problem is to select one equilibrium out of $N$ possible equilibria in the least number of attempts. We propose a number of heuristic rules based on reinforcement learning to solve the coordination problem. We see that the agents self-organize into clusters with varying intensities depending on the heuristic rule applied although all clusters but one are transitory in most cases. Finally, we characterize a trade-off in terms of the time requirement to achieve a degree of stability in strategies and the efficiency of such a solution.
    Date: 2016–07
  356. By: Jess Diamond (Hitotsubashi University,); Kota Watanabe (CIGS and University of Tokyo); Tsutomu Watanabe (University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: Using a new micro-level dataset we investigate the relationship between the inflation experience and inflation expectations of individuals in Japan. We focus on the period after 1995, when Japan began its era of deflation. Our key findings are fourfold. Firstly, we find that inflation expectations tend to increase with age. Secondly, we find that measured inflation rates of items purchased also increase with age. However, we find that age and inflation expectations continue to have a positive correlation even after controlling for the individual-level rate of inflation. Further analysis suggests that the positive correlation between age and inflation expectations is driven to a significant degree by the correlation between co