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on Economics of Strategic Management |
| By: | Riccardo Crescenzi; Luisa Gagliardi; Simona Iammarino |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at foreign Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) investing in the UK and at their impact on the innovation performance of domestic firms active in their same sector. By employing data on Foreign Direct Investments matched with firm-level information the paper develops a direct measure of capital inflows at a three-digit industry level. In order to capture innovation in both manufacturing and services the paper relies on a broader proxy for firm innovativeness based on the Community Innovation Survey (CIS). The results suggest that domestic firms active in sectors with greater investments by MNEs show a stronger innovative performance. However, the heterogeneity across domestic firms in terms of internationalization of both their market engagement and ownership structure is the main driver of this effect. |
| Keywords: | multinational enterprises; innovation technological change; intra-industry knowledge diffusion; community innovation survey; United Kingdom |
| JEL: | F22 O33 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:62028&r=cse |
| By: | de Matías Batalla, David |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the author presents the impact of new players and factors in international business activities, which have a direct influence on international economic structure. One of the most important determinants over the last decades has been foreign direct investment, which has encouraged the dislocation of business activities in many industries. This, together with the rest of foreign direct investment, makes the author think of extending the OLI model to OLIM, where M is the mode of entry. One type of this mode is offshoring which makes easier the relocation of business activity from developed economies to developing economies. The study of offshoring activities is the focus of this paper, with the data coming from a survey of 166 Spanish multinational firms. Empirical evidence should provide us the main factors that motivate Spanish multinational firms to be engaged in foreign direct investment via offshoring. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment,eclectic paradigm,internationalization process,offshoring,multinational firms |
| JEL: | D23 F21 F23 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201637&r=cse |
| By: | Rosario Crino (Catholic University of Milan); Gino Gancia (CREI); Alessandra Bonfiglioli (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) |
| Abstract: | We study the equilibrium determinants of firm-level heterogeneity in a model in which firms can affect the variance of their productivity draws at the entry stage and explore the implications in closed and open economy. By allowing firms to choose the size of their investment in innovation projects of unknown quality, the model yields a Pareto distribution for productivity with a shape parameter that depends on industry-level characteristics. A novel result is that export opportunities, by increasing the payoffs in the tail, induce firms to invest in bigger projects with more spread-out outcomes. Moreover, when more productive firms also pay higher wages, trade amplifies wage dispersion by making all firms more unequal. These results are consistent with new evidence on how firm-level heterogeneity and wage dispersion vary in a panel of U.S. industries. Finally, we use patent data across U.S. states and over time to provide evidence in support of a specific mechanism of the model, namely, that export opportunities increase firm heterogeneity by fostering innovation. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:327&r=cse |
| By: | Lee, DongJoon; Choi, Kangsik; Nariu, Tatsuhiko |
| Abstract: | We investigate the endogenous choice of strategic variable (a price or a quantity) by downstream firms in a two-tier industry in which an upstream firm performs the R&D investment. We show that when the upstream firm offers either linear discriminatory or uniform input price, it is a dominant strategy for each downstream firm to choose Bertrand competition when two products become relatively differentiated. Second, from the viewpoint of downstream firms, we show that Bertrand competition is more efficient than Cournot competition in some boundaries of Cournot equilibrium, which implies that each downstream firm faces a prisoners' dilemma under the Cournot equilibrium. However, when the downstream firms involve in centralized bargaining with an upstream firm to determine the two-part tariff discriminatory (uniform) input pricing contracts, we find that choosing price (quantity) contract is the dominant strategy for downstream firms. In this case, we further show that the level of social welfare is the same regardless of the mode of product market competition (i.e., Bertrand or Cournot). |
| Keywords: | Endogenous Choice, Bertrand competition, Cournot competition, Upstream Investment, Bargaining |
| JEL: | D43 L13 M21 |
| Date: | 2016–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72752&r=cse |
| By: | Karbowski, Adam; Prokop, Jacek |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to analyze selected problems of interfirm R&D cooperation discussed in the industrial organization literature. Analyzed interrelated problems are: (i) stability of interfirm R&D cooperation, (ii) organization of interfirm R&D cooperation, (iii) asymmetries between cooperating firms and (iv) the impact of interfirm R&D cooperation on industry cartelization. On the basis of the literature review it can be concluded that the necessary condition for reaching benefits from interfirm R&D cooperation is to (1) successfully solve the free-rider problem arising in the process of knowledge sharing between collaborating firms and further (2) maintain stable cooperation. Obstacles to stable R&D cooperation can be, however, too low or too high values of asymmetries occurring between cooperating firms. Effective stabilization of interfirm R&D cooperation can be achieved, among others, by licensing of know-how, intensification of knowledge sharing between cooperating firms and various organizational forms of R&D cooperation (research joint-ventures and R&D cartels). From the social welfare perspective it should be also noted that tightening up of an interfirm cooperation at the R&D stage can result in the cartelization of industry (cartel on the market of a final good can be formed). |
| Keywords: | interfirm cooperation, research and development, industrial organization |
| JEL: | L24 O32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72784&r=cse |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | This publication is part of a series of six country reports on technical and vocational education and training (TVET) and higher education in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. Each report presents current arrangements and initiatives in the respective country’s skills development strategies. These are complemented by critical analyses to determine key issues, challenges, and opportunities for innovative strategies toward global competitiveness, increased productivity, and inclusive growth. The emphasis is to make skills training more relevant, efficient, and responsive to emerging domestic and international labor markets. The reports were finalized in 2013 under the Australian AID-supported Phase 1 of Subproject 11 (Innovative Strategies for Accelerated Human Resource Development) of Regional Technical Assistance 6337 (Development Partnership Program for South Asia). |
| Keywords: | Education, South Asia, TVET, higher education, global competitiveness, Human Resource Development, skills training |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt146957&r=cse |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | This publication is part of a series of six country reports on technical and vocational education and training (TVET) and higher education in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. Each report presents current arrangements and initiatives in the respective country’s skills development strategies. These are complemented by critical analyses to determine key issues, challenges, and opportunities for innovative strategies toward global competitiveness, increased productivity, and inclusive growth. The emphasis is to make skills training more relevant, efficient, and responsive to emerging domestic and international labor markets. The reports were finalized in 2013 under the Australian AID-supported Phase 1 of Subproject 11 (Innovative Strategies for Accelerated Human Resource Development) of Regional Technical Assistance 6337 (Development Partnership Program for South Asia). |
| Keywords: | Education, South Asia, TVET, higher education, global competitiveness, Human Resource Development, skills training |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt146955&r=cse |
| By: | Békés, Gábor; Hornok, Cecília; Muraközy, Balázs |
| Abstract: | We use a unique cross-section survey of manufacturing firms from four European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain) linked with balance sheet data to study the relationship between key aspects of globalization and firm-level markups. The main results are: (i) Exporting is positively correlated with markups; (ii) Importing intermediate inputs and outsourcing are also positively correlated with markups; (iii) Firms with affiliates have higher markups than other firms, while simply membership in a group or being foreign-owned seems to be less important; (iv) Perceived competition from low-cost markets is negatively correlated with markups; (v) Higher quality production and innovation, especially if it results in IP, has a strong positive relationship with markups; (vi) While these variables are correlated, they are significant in a joint model including all four groups, and 'fully globalized' firms tend to charge around 100% higher markups than non-globalized firms. |
| Keywords: | markups,exporting,importing,FDI,innovation |
| JEL: | D22 D24 F14 L11 L60 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2044&r=cse |
| By: | Aghion, Philippe; Howitt, Peter; Prantl, Susanne |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we provide empirical evidence to the effect that strong patent rights may complement competition-increasing product market reforms in fostering innovation. First, we find that the product market reform induced by the large-scale internal market reform of the European Union in 1992 enhanced, on average, innovative investments in manufacturing industries of countries with strong patent rights since the pre-sample period, but not so in industries of countries with weaker patent rights. Second, the positive response to the product market reform is more pronounced in industries where, in general, innovators tend to value patent protection higher than in other industries, except for the manufacture of electrical and optical equipment. The observed complementarity between competition and patent protection can be rationalized using a Schumpeterian growth model with step-by-step innovation. In such a model, better patent protection prolongs the period over which a firm that successfully escapes competition by innovating, actually enjoys higher monopoly rents from its technological upgrade. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hrv:faseco:27755230&r=cse |
| By: | Alexandra López-Cermeño (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a simplified method of exploring the geographical limits of a knowledge shock over the long run. Using a geographically decomposable distanceweighed sum of world GDPs by county, differences in differences regression analysis shows that a new university will not only have a positive impact on the local economy, but also on the GDP of nearby counties. Furthermore, challenging the conventional wisdom that knowledge spillovers affect the local economy, this study provides evidence that the effect expands to the whole nation although its strength dilutes with distance. Consistent with the education literature, this investigation provides evidence that the shock will make the relative GDP of foreign competitors worse-off. Results are persistent in the long run, although the effect of time is also decreasing. Results are robust to potential endogeneity related to the self-selection of prosperous allocations for new academic institutions. |
| Keywords: | New Economic Geography, Spillovers, U.S Counties |
| JEL: | L8 N72 R11 O18 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0096&r=cse |
| By: | Gerasim A. Mkrtychyan (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces an original methodology for assessing the organizational culture of an entrepreneurial university. Methods for the assessment of values in research activity and of resistance to organizational change have been developed. The study of values and characteristics of resistance to change was conducted on the academic staff of the faculties of Economics and Management at the Nizhny Novgorod campus of the Higher School of Economics. It was found that the campus professors' academic orientation in research activity dominates their entrepreneurial orientation and that the strength of this influence differs amongst them, depending on their values. Additionally, greatest resistance in professors is caused by changes in human resources policy and management; this resistance is of moderate intensity and passive. The study confirms a positive relationship between the academic orientation of the "motivation" and "reward" values and the intensity of resistance to change in personnel policy and management. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurial university, organizational culture, academic values, entrepreneurial values, resistance to change. |
| JEL: | M14 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:31edu2016&r=cse |
| By: | F. Barigozzi; N. Burani |
| Abstract: | We study optimal non-linear contracts offered by two firms competing for the exclusive services of workers, who are privately informed about their ability and motivation. Firms differ in their organizational form, and motivated workers are keen to be hired by the non-profit firm because they adhere to its mission. If the for-profit firm has a competitive advantage over the non-profit firm, the latter attracts fewer high-ability workers with respect to the former. Moreover, workers exert more effort at the for-profit than at the non-profit firm despite the latter distorts effort levels upwards. Finally, a wage penalty emerges for non-profit workers which is partly due to compensating effects (labor donations by motivated workers) and partly due to the negative selection of ability into the non-profit firm. The opposite results hold when it is the non-profit firm that has a competitive advantage. |
| JEL: | D82 D86 J24 J31 M55 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1072&r=cse |
| By: | Abeba Nigussie Turi (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the spillover effect resulting from the foreign direct investment with a focus on the manufacturing firms in Ethiopia. Being one of the pillars of the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), identifying the productivity spillovers arising from the FDI to the sector is timely. The research covers extensive econometric analysis based on the Central Statistics Agency’s (CSA) survey, for the years 2004 up to 2010, on the manufacturing firms and an Input-Output matrix, for the year 2005/6, constructed by the Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI). My analysis suggests that there is an econometric evidence for positive Backward spillovers and negative Forward spillovers to the total productivity of the manufacturing firms in the country. The paper’s findings on this aspect are limited. Because, the analysis entirely rely on industry level secondary data and only one year Input-Output matrix. Therefore, there is a potential for further research work; given this benchmark finding. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment, Spillover Effect, Total Factor Productivity |
| JEL: | F2 F21 F23 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2015_29&r=cse |
| By: | Thierry Mayer; Marc J. Melitz; Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano |
| Abstract: | We document how demand shocks in export markets lead French multi-product exporters to re-allocate the mix of products sold in those destinations. In response to positive demand shocks, those French firms skew their export sales towards their best performing products; and also extend the range of products sold to that market. We develop a theoretical model of multi-product firms and derive the specific demand and cost conditions needed to generate these product-mix reallocations. Our theoretical model highlights how the increased competition from demand shocks in export markets .and the induced product mix reallocations - induce productivity changes within the firm. We then empirically test for this connection between the demand shocks and the productivity of multi-product firms exporting to those destinations. We find that the effect of those demand shocks on productivity are substantial .and explain an important share of aggregate productivity fluctuations for French manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | productivity, trade, competition |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1442&r=cse |
| By: | Goldschlag, Nathan (U.S. Census Bureau); Bianchini, Stefano (Université de Strasbourg); Lane, Julia (New York University); SanMartin Sola, Joseba; Weinberg, Bruce A. (Ohio State University) |
| Abstract: | Public support of research typically relies on the notion that universities are engines of economic development, and that university research is a primary driver of high wage localized economic activity. Yet the evidence supporting that notion is based on aggregate descriptive data, rather than detailed links at the level of individual transactions. Here we use new micro-data from three countries - France, Spain and the United States - to examine one mechanism whereby such economic activity is generated, namely purchases from regional businesses. We show that grant funds are more likely to be expended at businesses physically closer to universities than at those farther away. In addition, if a vendor has been a supplier to a grant once, that vendor is subsequently more likely to be a vendor on the same or related grants. Firms behave in a way that is consistent with the notion that propinquity is good for business; if a firm supplies a research grant at a university in a given year it is more likely to open an establishment near that university in subsequent years than other firms. |
| Keywords: | science policy, innovation, regional economic development, UMETRICS |
| JEL: | O30 R10 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10081&r=cse |
| By: | Alexander Cordes; Birgit Gehrke; Christian Rammer; Roman Römisch (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Paula Schliessler; Pia Wassmann |
| Abstract: | Abstract This study introduces a suitable method to break down national trade data to the regional level. This allows producing trade indicators at the regional level, revealed export advantages in particular. Identifying industries in which a region realises a strong trade specialisation plays a twofold role in industrial and regional policy-making. Firstly, identifying successful structures at the industry-region level helps to improve the understanding of micro- and meso-foundations for competitiveness as well as scope and cases for policy intervention. Secondly, knowledge of the spatial distribution of competitive industries and required location factors is necessary for differentiated perspectives on future economic development and the choice of policy instruments. The study applies descriptive, econometric and case study analysis to identify regional patterns of trade specialisation, as well as region- and industry-specific factors related to success in international markets. Based on the results obtained, the study develops conclusions for EU regional and smart specialisation policies. |
| Keywords: | EU regions, regional foreign trade, EU regional policy, smart specialisation strategies, regional competitiveness, determinants of competitiveness |
| JEL: | R12 R15 R58 F14 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:412&r=cse |
| By: | Su, Tong-Yaa |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the characteristics of competition among firms from an evolutionary perspective. It develops a coherent approach to economic competition that incorporates two kinds of evolutionary concepts currently used and emerging at the intersection of social sciences, including economics, and biology: Darwinian thinking as well as the naturalistic approach. Inspired by evolutionary theory, the intersection commonly captures concepts that make metaphorical use of Darwinian ideas – these concepts draw on an analogy construction to the biological sphere. As a result in this paper, different characteristics of economic competition may be analogically described by different forms of biological selection, e.g., genetic group selection. However, selection processes do not only act on genes, but also on culture. By considering the naturalistic approach, differences to the biological sphere are revealed. The crux of this paper is the deduction that competition between firms is a form of cultural group selection in economic evolution. |
| Keywords: | Competition; Evolutionary Theory; Selection Processes; Continuity Hypothesis |
| JEL: | B52 D49 |
| Date: | 2016–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72756&r=cse |
| By: | Claudia BALAN (Student, Masters Financial Management, Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | At national level, but also at European level, the market economy has the competition as the main regulating force. Of course, there are practices that distort this force of the economy, unfair practices (anticompetitive deals and the abuse of dominant position) that worsen the competitive environment. Romania, as a European state, is guided to comply with the competition policy. We, as European consumers, are involved directly in maintaining the internal balance because the anticompetitive practices are affecting us directly. The Romanian state needs, like any other state, competitiveness and performance. But can the rules of the competition policy ensure the success of an economic market given that a market economy without competition is unthinkable? |
| Keywords: | competition, anticompetitive practices, Competition Council |
| JEL: | D40 L40 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eub:wpaper:2016-08&r=cse |
| By: | Thomasz, Esteban Otto; Casparri, María Teresa |
| Abstract: | The aim of this work is to present an exploratory synthesis of international experience related to index-based insurance, in order to assess their potential applicability as adaptation to climate risk in the case of countries dependent of agriculture. It will attempt to define the particular engineering these instruments , define its main characteristics, identify their advantages and disadvantages compared to traditional insurance; and from the study of international experience analyze the feasibility of implementing this tool . This line of research aims to identify the challenges faced by countries in developing for the implementation of these instruments. |
| Keywords: | index-based insurance, climate risk, agriculture. |
| JEL: | G22 Q14 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72690&r=cse |
| By: | Yogesh Punia |
| Abstract: | Information and communication technology (ICT) stands for the combined set of resources, whether physical, infrastructure or human, that stands for the efficient transformation of information across the globes. In the recent years, we have witnessed several changes in the global scenario as the rapidly boundaries caused the people, society and nations to merge together for a common cause of development. The spread of information and communication technology and global interconnectedness has great potential to accelerate human progress to bridge the digital divide and develop knowledge societies. Sustainable development is required for maintaining proper balance between the exhausting resources and our existence. This paper is an attempt to explore the various aspects of ICT, the challenges in its implementation and future prospects of ICT in our vision of world as a better place - to live and to prosper. Key words: ICT and Sustainable Development |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-06-12&r=cse |
| By: | Erling Barth; James Davis; Richard B. Freeman |
| Abstract: | We augment standard ln earnings equations with variables reflecting unmeasured attributes of workers and measured and unmeasured attributes of their employer. Using panel employee-establishment data for US manufacturing we find that the observable employer characteristics that most impact earnings are: number of workers, education of co-workers, capital equipment per worker, industry in which the establishment produces, and R&D intensity of the firm. Employer fixed effects also contribute to the variance of ln earnings, though substantially less than individual fixed effects. In addition to accounting for some of the variance in earnings, the observed and unobserved measures of employers mediate the estimated effects of individual characteristics on earnings and increasing earnings inequality through the sorting of workers among establishments. |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:427826&r=cse |
| By: | Brigitte Landesmann |
| Abstract: | Liver fibrosis is an important human health issue associated with chemical exposure. It is a typical result of chronic toxic injury and one of the considered endpoints for regulatory purposes. This AOP describes the linkage between hepatic injury caused by protein alkylation and the formation of liver fibrosis. Fibrogenesis is a long-term and complex process for which an adequate cell model is not available and an in vitro evaluation of fibrogenic potential is therefore not feasible yet. This systematic and coherent display of currently available mechanistic-toxicological information can serve as a knowledge-based repository for identification/selection/development of in vitro methods suitable for measuring key events and their relationships along the AOP and to facilitate the use of alternative data for regulatory purposes. Identified uncertainties and knowledge gaps can indicate priorities for future research. |
| Keywords: | liver fibrosis, protein alkylation, hepatotoxicity |
| Date: | 2016–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaad:2-en&r=cse |
| By: | Piotr Gabrielczak (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz); Tomasz Serwach (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the link between firm-level productivity and internationalization (through exports, imports and FDI) in the Lodz Voivodeship, Poland. Two hypotheses have been tested –self-selection and learning by internationalization. It has been found that productivity may affect import and FDI decisions of firms, while there is no evidence of such an effect regarding exports. At the same time, there is no proof for learning, suggesting that within the timeframe of the analysis firms from the Lodz Voivodeship do not experience productivity gains due to international trade or investment. |
| Keywords: | international trade, foreign direct investment, internationalization, productivity, self-selection, learning |
| JEL: | F12 F23 D22 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ann:wpaper:7/2016&r=cse |
| By: | Ioannis Asimakopoulos (Bank of Greece); Panagiotis K. Avramidis (ALBA Graduate Business School at the American College of Greece); Dimitris Malliaropulos (Bank of Greece, University of Piraeus); Nickolaos G. Travlos |
| Abstract: | Using a unique dataset of corporate loans of 13,070 Greek firms for the period 2008-2015 and an identification strategy based on the internal credit ratings of banks, we provide evidence that one out of six firms with non-performing loans are strategic defaulters. Furthermore, we investigate potential determinants of firms’ behavior by relating the probability of strategic default to a number of firm characteristics such as size, age, liquidity, profitability and collateral value. We provide evidence of a positive relationship of strategic default with outstanding debt and economic uncertainty and a negative relationship with the value of collateral. Also, profitability and collateral can be used to distinguish the strategic defaulters from the financially distressed defaulters. Finally, we find evidence that the relationship of strategic default risk with firm size and age has an inverse U-shape, i.e. strategic default is more likely among medium-sized firms compared to small and large firms and it is also more likely among middle-aged firms compared to new-founded and established firms. |
| Keywords: | Strategic default; Non-performing loans; Corporate loans; Leverage |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G32 C23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:211&r=cse |
| By: | Natasha Agarwal; Zheng Wang |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) on US exports particularly in the wake of international competition from foreign national export credit agencies (ECAs). We employ a gravity framework on a country-industry-year-level panel dataset that matches EXIM authorizations with US bilateral exports. Our results depict the general ineffectiveness of the Bank in promoting exports within and across industries. Some heterogeneities behind the general finding are also uncovered: industries other than aerospace parts and products are more likely to benefit from EXIM authorizations, and that EXIM authorizations to larger businesses seem to be more effective in encouraging exports. Furthermore, we find no evidence that explains the role of EXIM in encouraging US exports by offsetting foreign ECA competition. These results are neither affected by competing countries’ membership to the OECD Arrangement nor by the size of American firms that received EXIM support. Our results cast doubt on the ubiquitously positive claims made by the Bank and its supporters, yet also provide policy lessons for countries that are either in the inception stages of establishing their own ECAs or are now placing greater importance on ECA financing in encouraging domestic exports. |
| Keywords: | Trade credits; EXIM; export competition; value chain |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notgep:16/12&r=cse |
| By: | Mesa Callejas, Ramón Javier; Osorio Agudelo, Jair Albeiro; Castaño Rios, Carlos Eduardo |
| Abstract: | The phenomenon of football is a sport that captivates masses throughout the world, it is definitely a whole passion, where love for a shirt or colors of a football team, in many cases, exceed the rationality of financial management it is clear from his administration. Evidence on financial and accounting results of the top leagues in Europe in recent years, characterized by negative imbalances and high debt levels, seem to prove the above hypothesis. In this paper, some reflections on the relationship between football and economy within the framework of business management from a financial perspective and business management are presented. It is concluded that it is imperative to professionalize the financial management of football clubs from strategies associated with a proper assessment of sports projects, the distribution of resources in times of crisis and financial planning in terms of financial balance El fenómeno del fútbol es una actividad deportiva que cautiva masas a lo largo y ancho del planeta, es definitivamente toda una pasión, donde el amor por una camiseta o los colores de un equipo de futbol, en muchos casos, superan la racionalidad del manejo financiero que se desprende de su administración. La evidencia sobre los resultados financieros y contables de las principales ligas en Europa en los últimos años, caracterizados por los desequilibrios negativos y los altos volúmenes de endeudamiento, parecen comprobar la hipótesis anterior. En este trabajo, se presentan algunas reflexiones sobre la relación entre el fútbol y la economía, en el marco de la gestión empresarial desde la perspectiva financiera y de gestión de negocio. Se concluye que es imperante profesionalizar la gestión financiera de los clubes de fútbol a partir de estrategias asociadas con una adecuada valoración de los proyectos deportivos, la distribución de recursos en épocas de crisis y la planeación financiera en términos del equilibrio financiero. |
| Keywords: | clubes de fútbol, economía del deporte, economía del futbol, gestión financiera de clubes de futbol |
| JEL: | B4 E01 L83 |
| Date: | 2015–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72778&r=cse |
| By: | Tsukhlo Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This section is prepared using the data of monthly business surveys conducted by the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (IEP) among managers of industrial enterprises since September 1992. The surveys are conducted on the basis of the European harmonized methodology and encompass the entire territory of the Russian Federation. The size of the panel is around 1,000 enterprises, which employ over 13% of the total number of employed in industry. The panel is biased towards large enterprises in each of the selected branches. The rate of response to questionnaires ranges from 70% to 75%. The business survey questionnaire contains quite a small number of questions (not more than 15-20). They are of qualitative rather than quantitative nature. The simple formulation of questions and answers allows the respondents to fill in the forms quickly and without consulting any documentation. It is essential that the respondent at each enterprise is an executive of the highest level possible who is fully aware of the situation at the enterprise and is directly involved in its management |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, industry, recession |
| JEL: | C53 E37 L21 L52 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-254&r=cse |
| By: | Karsten Staehr; Robert Vermeulen |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the short-term effects of competitiveness shocks on macroeconomic performance in the euro area. Vector autoregressive models are estimated on quarterly data from 1995 to 2013 for individual countries and the whole euro area. The results show that competitiveness shocks help to explain subsequent GDP developments in most countries but have little explanatory power for the current account balance and domestic credit. These results apply for all of the competitiveness measures considered, but a non-traditional competitiveness measure accounting for quality differences fares better in some cases. The effects of the competitiveness measures vary substantially across the countries in the euro area, which likely reflects their different economic structures and institutions. This heterogeneity suggests that policy measures seeking to improve competitiveness may have very different effects on economic performance and financial stability in different countries. |
| Keywords: | Competitiveness; macroeconomic variables; transmission; euro area |
| JEL: | E32 E61 F32 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:515&r=cse |
| By: | Dezhina Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, the budget allocations to civilian research and development (R&D) were cut by approximately 8% at current prices by comparison with the targets set in the basic version of the Law on the 2015 Federal Budget and 2016–2017 Budget Plan. The reduction in the amount of budget funding is of critical importance for the science sector, because the federal budget has remained the principal source of funding for research and development, covering about 70% of the aggregate expenditures on R&D. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, R&D, science, technology |
| JEL: | I21 I22 I23 I24 I25 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-263&r=cse |
| By: | Barbara Ermini (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali); Luca Papi (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali, MoFiR); Francesca Scaturro (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the determinants of over-education among Italian Ph.D graduates drawn from the four cohorts 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010 surveyed by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). We attempt to disentangle the differentiated effects of the economic crisis and the university reform that recently hit the Italian labour market. We examine over-education through the definitions of over-skilling, over-qualification and a combination of the two. The results show that socio-demographic variables do not exert a relevant influence on over-education. Conversely, job attributes such as working in academia or carrying out R&D activities reduce the likelihood of incurring into over-education. Instead, accessing the job via informal channels or working as self-employed increase the risk of over-education, with a stronger effect during the recession. Among Ph.D related features, visiting abroad is always a driver to overcome any kind of job mismatch. Generally, benefiting from financial support is a propelling factor to reduce over-education; it is effective in reducing qualification mismatch especially during the downturn. In the light of the above findings, some policy advices are proposed. |
| Keywords: | over-education, over-skilling, over-qualification, Ph.D graduates, crisis |
| JEL: | C2 I2 I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wmofir:126&r=cse |
| By: | Martin T. Bohl; Christian Gross; Waldemar Souza |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of the Brazilian futures exchange, BM&F Bovespa, in the global price formation process of Arabica coffee. Using a multivariate GARCH model we find bi-directional information transmission in terms of spillover effects between the BM&F Bovespa futures contract for Arabica coffee and the Coffee C' futures contract traded at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York. Moreover, our empirical results indicate that the influence of the BM&F Bovespa futures market on the ICE futures market increased during the 2010-2012 boom in co ee prices, suggesting a greater role of local information for volatility dynamics during this period. We also show that local Brazilian spot markets incorporate information from both the domestic and the foreign futures market. Taken together, our findings highlight the great relevance of the BM&F Bovespa futures market in the global price formation process of Arabica coffee. |
| Keywords: | Commodity futures markets, cross-border volatility transmission, emerging futures exchanges, price spikes in commodity markets |
| JEL: | G12 G13 G14 G15 Q02 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cqe:wpaper:5116&r=cse |
| By: | Aghion, Philippe; Dechezleprêtre, Antoine; Hemous, David; Martin, Ralf; Van Reenen, John |
| Abstract: | Can directed technical change be used to combat climate change? We construct new firm-level panel data on auto industry innovation distinguishing between "dirty" (internal combustion engine) and "clean" (e.g. electric and hybrid) patents across 80 countries over several decades. We show that firms tend to innovate relatively more in clean technologies when they face higher tax-inclusive fuel prices. Furthermore, there is path dependence in the type of innovation both from aggregate spillovers and from the firm's own innovation history. Using our model we simulate the increases in carbon taxes needed to allow clean to overtake dirty technologies. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hrv:faseco:27759048&r=cse |
| By: | Sabine D'Costa; Enrique Garcilazo; Joaquim Oliveira Martins |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to understand the impact of nation-wide structural policies on the productivity growth of OECD regions. In particular we explore how this impact varies with the productivity gap of regions with their country's frontier region. We use a policy-augmented growth model that allows us to estimate the effects of macroeconomic and structural policies on regional productivity growth. We estimate our model with an unbalanced panel dataset consisting of 265 regions from 24 OECD countries covering the period 1997 to 2007. We find that the effects on regional productivity growth are differentiated with respect to the regional productivity gap: Relaxing employment protection legislation on temporary contracts or lowering barriers to trade and investment would enhance productivity growth in lagging regions, whereas reducing the amount of state control has the opposite effect on lagging regions. Macroeconomic factors also influence regional performance: trade openness and the government debt to GDP ratio are more beneficial to lagging regions. These results reveal that average relationships between nation-wide policies and the productivity of regions can hide strong differentiated effects according to the distance to the country frontier. This carries important policy implications, mainly that these region-specific effects should be taken into account in the policy design. |
| Keywords: | structural reforms, regional growth, lagging regions |
| JEL: | R11 R58 O18 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:sercdp:0203&r=cse |
| By: | Cicatiello, Lorenzo; De Simone, Elina; Gaeta, Giuseppe Lucio |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature on the determinants of fiscal transparency by empirically identifying its political determinants in democratic countries. Our static and dynamic panel data analysis highlights that government control over parliaments and political competition influence the level of fiscal transparency, while the effect of government ideology is only partially confirmed. These results extend the existing literature which is based on cross-country analyses. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal transparency; panel data; political determinants |
| JEL: | H6 P5 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72609&r=cse |
| By: | Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Jing Chen (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | The year 2015 marks the West Virginia University (WVU) Regional Research Institute’s (RRI) 50th year anniversary and this article conducts a case study to explore the scholarly collaborations by social network analysis (SNA) in the RRI research community since its inception in 1965. We have discovered that the evolving endogenous and exogenous co-authorship networks grow and gain complexity as the Institute develops and incorporates more researchers. However, this case study also uncovers and verifies several social network analysis (SNA) limitations on research pattern analysis. |
| Keywords: | Co-authorship, bibliometrics, social network analysis, Regional Research Institute |
| JEL: | R00 O18 A12 B31 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2016wp03&r=cse |
| By: | Kohei Shintani (Bank of Japan); Yoshiyuki Kurachi (Bank of Japan); Shinichi Nishioka (Bank of Japan); Takashi Okamoto (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | Although the underlying trend in consumer prices has been rising steadily in recent years, administered prices in Japan have stayed more or less flat. In contrast, administered prices in Europe and the United States have consistently moved upward. Differences in the institutional systems of administered prices can be pointed out as one reason for this sharp contrast. Since the 1980s, European countries and the United States have taken measures to (i) enhance management discipline of publicly owned businesses, and (ii) create independent regulatory commissions and enhance independence from the government mainly in terms of price-setting. As a result, administered prices have been set in accordance with labor and investment costs. In the case of Japan, on the other hand, the government has been heavily and directly involved in the price-setting process, and government subsidies have been granted to many public enterprises. This mechanism may act to affect administered prices in our country. |
| Date: | 2016–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojrev:rev16e09&r=cse |
| By: | Tim De Stefano; Richard Kneller; Jonathan Timmis |
| Abstract: | A recent literature has begun to recognise that ICT is heterogeneous and the effects from improving communication are distinct from those that improve the storage and processing of information. In this paper we use the arrival of a new communication technology, ADSL broadband internet, to study the effects of communication ICT on firm performance. To do so free from endogeneity bias, we construct instruments using the infrastructure underlying broadband internet - the pre-existing telephone network. We show that, after placing various restrictions on the sample, instruments based on the timing of ADSL broadband enablement and the cable distance to the local telephone exchange satisfy the conditions for instrument relevancy and validity for some types of ICT. We find in turn, that communication-ICT causally affects firm size (captured by either sales or employment) but not productivity. |
| Keywords: | ICT, firms, instrumental variable |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notgep:16/11&r=cse |
| By: | Bryan Engelhardt (College of Business, University of Wisconsin - Oshkosh); Zachary Fernandes (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) |
| Abstract: | To check for the impartiality of the United States judicial system, we investigate whether judicial decisions are leaked prior to their public release. Utilizing an event study methodology, we test for leaked information by analyzing the effect of patent infringement verdicts on the stock prices of the firms involved before and after the public release of the verdict. We find evidence that at least some of the decisions are leaked prior to their public release. |
| Keywords: | event study, patent infringement, judicial leakage, insider trading, trial court, appellate court |
| JEL: | G14 K41 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hcx:wpaper:1602&r=cse |
| By: | Rachel Ngai (london school of economics); Timo Boppart (IIES, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a growth model that explains the U.S. facts of rising aggregate leisure and increasing leisure inequality. Households derive utility from three sources: market produced goods, home produced goods and leisure. A key assumption is that leisure is a production activity requiring time and capital. Households allocate time and capital into each production activity. The dynamics are driven by activity-specific TFP growth and a spread in the distribution of household-specific market efficiencies. They combine to explain the time series and cross-sectional evolutions whilst the economy remains on its aggregate balance growth path. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:330&r=cse |
| By: | Mosher, James F JD |
| Keywords: | Medicine and Health Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:ctcres:qt7f2057rx&r=cse |
| By: | Adam Zawadowski (Central European University); Peter Kondor (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of capital reallocation to analyze whether the presence of more arbitrageurs improves capital allocation and welfare. While trades can become crowded due to imperfect information and externalities, arbitrageurs can devote resources to flexibly learn about the number of earlier entrants. Above a threshold, increasing the number of arbitrageurs does not affect capital allocation: whether there is eventually too little or too much capital allocated to the trade is solely determined by the parameters of the market. The flexibility in the learning technology is key to this insight. However, the presence of more arbitrageurs decreases welfare, as they use more aggregate resources to learn about each others' position. When both sophisticated and unsophisticated arbitrageurs are present, increasing the share of sophisticated arbitrageurs might be welfare reducing. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:338&r=cse |
| By: | Inés Macho-Stadler; David Pérez-Castrillo; David Wettstein |
| Abstract: | We propose the average approach,where the worth of a coalition is a weighted average of its worth for di/erent partitions of the playersset, as a unifying method to extend values for characteristic function form games. Our method allows us to extend the equal division value, the equal surplus value, the consensus value, the -egalitarian Shapley value, and the least-square family. For each of the rst three extensions, we also provide an axiomatic characterization of a particular value for partition function form games. And for each of the last two extensions, we nd a family of values that satisfy the properties. |
| Keywords: | Externalities, sharing the surplus, average approach |
| JEL: | D62 C71 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:919&r=cse |
| By: | Ali, Mazhar |
| Abstract: | This study investigates advertising effectiveness of creative TV advertisements (Ads) for high involvement products. The majority of such studies have been conducted using low involvement products. There is a need to conduct a research to find out the effectiveness of creative advertisements for high involvement products.This study will fill this knowledge gap. This study aimed at measuring the impact of creativity in Ads on Attitude toward Advertisement,Unaided Recall and Purchase intention. It involved 94 university students in an experimental research. Paired sample t-test was used for evaluating creative and control Ads .Data analysis reveals that creative Ads are better than control Ads in generating favorable attitude toward ad and high Ad recall but equally ineffective in persuading customers to buy. Binary logistic regression showed small role of creativity in causing high Ad recall while multiple regression analysis confirmed the supremacy of creative Ads for forming a favorable attitude toward Ad. |
| Keywords: | Creativity, advertising effectiveness, purchase intention, Aided Recall, Un-aided Recall, Product involvement. |
| JEL: | M37 M39 |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72699&r=cse |
| By: | Rachelle Belinga (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Blanche Segrestin (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an exploratory study on proxy voting policies as a lever for social shareholder engagement (SSE). It proposes an analysis framework for an ongoing empirical research and produces its first results of investigation. Although SSE is a growing phenomenon, it needs more concrete means of action. If the influence of shareholder activists is frequently denounced for its negative impact on corporations, which concrete means shareholders who want CSR to benefit from their leverage have at their disposal? While in Europe shareholder proposals are limited, proxy voting policies appear as a significant element which has been insufficiently explored in the SSE literature. Starting with a first sample of proxy voting policies, we examine the potential use of voting policies by engaged shareholders. Our analysis shows limited differentiation and we search for some first hypotheses that could lead and support further research. |
| Keywords: | proxy voting policies,proxy voting,shareholder engagement,corporate governance,corporate social responsibility |
| Date: | 2016–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01312918&r=cse |
| By: | Alesina, Alberto Francesco; Giuliano, Paola |
| Abstract: | A growing body of empirical work measuring different types of cultural traits has shown that culture matters for a variety of economic outcomes. This paper focuses on one specific aspect of the relevance of culture: its relationship to institutions. We review work with a theoretical, empirical, and historical bent to assess the presence of a two-way causal effect between culture and institutions. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hrv:faseco:27759053&r=cse |
| By: | Haim Shalit (BGU); Frank Hespeler |
| Keywords: | Mean-Gini portfolios, numerical optimization, stochastic dominance portfolios, 3D efficient frontier |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bgu:wpaper:1603&r=cse |
| By: | Alvarez, Francisco; André, Francisco J.; Mazón, Cristina |
| Abstract: | We study the efficiency of the uniform auction as an allocation mechanism for emission permits among polluting firms. In our model, firms have private information about their abatement costs, which differ across firms and across units, and bidders' demands are linear. We show that there is a continuum of interior Bayesian-Nash equilibria, and only one is effcient, minimizing abatement costs. We find that the existence of many bidders is not a sufficient condition to guarantee an efficient equilibrium in the uniform auction. Additionally, bidders' types have to be uncorrelated. |
| Keywords: | Emission permits, Uniform auction, Efficiency, Incomplete information Simultaneous games |
| JEL: | D44 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72827&r=cse |
| By: | Davis, Brent |
| Abstract: | Winning elections is essentially a matter of translating the attitudes of voters into votes. Although this proposition may sound simple, the reality is considerably more challenging. Despite vast scholarship over many years we know very little, if anything, about the efficiency with which the inputs (voter attitudes) to the political process are converted into outputs (vote support). Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) provides a statistical method to measure the efficiency with which inputs are converted into outputs. The results of the DEA analysis and associated modelling find marked differences in the political efficiency of recent Australian political leaders. |
| Keywords: | campaigns; election; politimetric modelling; Data Envelopment Analysis; voter behaviour; political marketing; Australian elections |
| JEL: | C1 C13 C5 C51 C53 C54 H1 H11 K0 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72792&r=cse |
| By: | Rajeev Darolia (University of Missouri); Cory Koedel (University of Missouri) |
| Abstract: | We use statewide administrative data from Missouri to examine the role of high schools in explaining students’ initial college and major placements at 4-year public universities. Conditional on a student’s own academic preparation, the high school attended predicts the rigor of the initial university, and within the university, the rigor of the initial major. We identify a relatively sparse set of school characteristics – and characteristics of schools’ local communities – that account for much of the explanatory power of high schools. Complementing previous studies, we show that students from low-SES high schools enroll in less rigorous universities than their similarly-qualified peers from high-SES high schools. Students from low-SES schools also enroll in less rigorous majors within universities. Black-white gaps in the rigor of the initial college and major can be explained entirely by students’ own pre-entry academic preparation and a small number of high school and neighborhood characteristics. |
| Keywords: | college sorting, major sorting, university sorting, college major choice, STEM degrees |
| JEL: | I23 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:1609&r=cse |
| By: | Alexander Hijzen; Pedro S. Martins |
| Abstract: | In many countries, notably across Europe, collective bargaining coverage is enhanced by government-issued extensions that widen the reach of collective agreements beyond their signatory parties to all firms and workers in the same sector. This paper analyses the causal impact of such extensions on employment using a natural experiment in Portugal: the immediate suspension by the government that took office in 21 June 2011 of the (until then) nearly automatic extensions. The combination of this suspension and the time needed for processing the extension applications resulted in a sharp and unanticipated decline in the extension probability of agreements signed several months earlier, around 1 March 2011. Our results, based on a regression discontinuity design and matched employer-employee-agreement panel data, suggest that extensions had a negative impact on employment growth. Moreover, the effects tend to be concentrated amongst non-affiliated firms. The lack of representativeness of employer associations is a potentially important factor behind the adverse effect of extensions. Another is the role of retro-activity in combination with the administrative delay in processing extensions. This is particularly relevant in the context of a recession. |
| Keywords: | collective bargaining, industrial relations, employer associations, wage setting, employment |
| JEL: | J52 J58 J21 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgs:wpaper:68&r=cse |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | In partnership with the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) held the forum on September at Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The forum featured research papers on regional economic outlook, global value chains, regional economic cooperation, transitioning from middleincome status, social inclusion, and capacity building for think tanks. This publication documents the dynamic exchange of ideas and information during the day event. The ADBAsian Think Tank Development Forum is an annual knowledge sharing event under the ADB AsianThinkb Tans Network (ATTN), established by ADB and the Asian think tanks in . The major objective of the network is to promote knowledge sharing and capacity building of think tanks, particularly those which are involved in supporting governments in formulating and implementing mediumor longterm development plans and in responding to emerging issues. For more information about ATTN, please visit its website: http://www/adb-asianthinktanks.org/ |
| Keywords: | economic outlook, global value chains, regional economic cooperation, social inclusion, and capacity building |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt167980-2&r=cse |
| By: | Berliant, Marcus; Watanabe, Hiroki |
| Abstract: | Zipf’s law is one of the best-known empirical regularities in urban economics. There is extensive research on the subject, where each city is treated symmetrically in terms of the cost of transactions with other cities. Recent developments in network theory facilitate the examination of an asymmetric transport network. In a scale-free network, the chance of observing extremes in network connections becomes higher than the Gaussian distribution predicts and therefore it explains the emergence of large clusters. The city-size distribution shares the same pattern. This paper decodes how accessibility of a city to other cities on the transportation network can boost its local economy and explains the city-size distribution as a result of its underlying transportation network structure. Finally, we discuss the endogenous evolution of transport networks. |
| Keywords: | Zipf’s law; city-size distribution; scale-free network |
| JEL: | L14 R12 R40 |
| Date: | 2016–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72790&r=cse |
| By: | Mi, Zhifu; Zhang, Yunkun; Dabo Guan; Shan, Yuli; Zhu Liu; Cong, Ronggang; Yuan, Xiao-Chen; Wei, Yi-Ming |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:428381&r=cse |
| By: | Kawaguchi, Daiji (University of Tokyo); Kondo, Ayako (University of Tokyo); Saito, Keiji |
| Abstract: | Based on a unique time-use survey of academic researchers in Japan, this study finds that research time decreases over the life cycle. The decrease in total hours worked and the increase in time spent on administrative tasks explain the decrease in research time. We also show that the decrease of research time partly explains why the research output of older researchers' decreases. The results suggest that proper incentives and job designs for senior researchers may increase their research output. |
| Keywords: | researchers' time use, research output, academic researchers, academic administration, education, multi-tasking |
| JEL: | J22 J24 J44 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10080&r=cse |
| By: | Jiyoung Kim; Satoshi Nakano; Kazuhiko Nishimura |
| Abstract: | Sector-wise productivity growths are measured, along with the sectoral elasticity of substitutions, under the multi-factor CES framework, by regressing the growths of factor-wise cost shares against the growths of relative factor prices. We use linked input-output tables for Japan and Korea as the data source for factor price and cost shares in two timely distant states. We then construct a multi-sectoral general equilibrium model using the system of estimated CES unit cost functions, and evaluate the economy-wide propagation of an exogenous productivity gain, in terms of welfare. Further, we examine the differences between models based on a priori elasticities such as Leontief and Cobb-Douglas. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1608.01365&r=cse |
| By: | Robert F. Engle; Olivier Ledoit; Michael Wolf |
| Abstract: | Second moments of asset returns are important for risk management and portfolio selection. The problem of estimating second moments can be approached from two angles: time series and the cross-section. In time series, the key is to account for conditional heteroskedasticity; a favored model is Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC), derived from the ARCH/GARCH family started by Engle (1982). In the cross-section, the key is to correct in-sample biases of sample covariance matrix eigenvalues; a favored model is nonlinear shrinkage, derived from Random Matrix Theory (RMT). The present paper aims to marry these two strands of literature in order to deliver improved estimation of large dynamic covariance matrices. |
| Keywords: | Composite likelihood, dynamic conditional correlations, GARCH, Markowitz portfolio selection, nonlinear shrinkage. |
| JEL: | C13 C58 G11 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:231&r=cse |
| By: | Xiaochuan Huang (DT Capital Management Co., Ltd.); Takehito Masuda (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University); Yoshitaka Okano (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology); Tatsuyoshi Saijo (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | We experimentally test a two-stage mechanism called the stay-leave mechanism to achieve cooperation in n-plyer prisoner's dilemma situations. Under this mechanism, each cooperator has the chance to revise his choice when players' choices are not unanimous. We say a player is selfish if he eliminates dominated choices in each stage. If all participants of the stay-leave mechanism are selfish, for any value of public good benefit that arises, the unique equilibrium is unanimous cooperation. The average cooperation rate in the stay-leave mechanism experiment averaged 86.6% across 15 periods, with an upward trend, increasing to 96.0% after period 5. By examining earlier period data, we detected that selfish and conditionally cooperative subjects coexist at a proportion of approximately 3:1. Finally, we extended our model to incorporate a mixture of the observed two types and misbeliefs about others' types. Paradoxically, unanimous cooperation is less likely to occur as the number of conditionally cooperative players increase. The model also partially explains the observed upward trend in the cooperation rate in the stay-leave mechanism sessions. |
| Keywords: | social dilemma; experiment; conditional cooperator; behavioral heterogeneity |
| JEL: | C72 C72 D74 H41 P43 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:944&r=cse |
| By: | Russell Pittman (Antitrust Division, U.S. Department of Justice) |
| Abstract: | Voting trust arrangements have a long history at both the Interstate Commerce Commission and the Surface Transportation Board as devices to protect the incentives of acquiring firms and maintain the independence of acquiring and target firms during the pendency of regulatory investigation of the merger proposal |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:doj:eagpap:201603&r=cse |
| By: | Jens K. Perret (European Institute for International Economic Relations at the University of Wuppertal) |
| Abstract: | The present study picks up on the aspect of knowledge generation - a key part of every national innovation system - in the context of the USA and the Russian Federation. Following Fritsch and Slavtchev (2006) a knowledge production function can be used to account for the efficiency of an innovation systems. In detail this study provides a quantile regression estimation of the knowledge production function to account for a possible non-linear relationship between knowledge inputs and knowledge output. Using regional data for researchers, expenditures on R\& D and patent grants for the USA and the Russian Federation - motivated by the results of a kernel density estimation and transition matrices - a quantile regression is performed for a basic knowledge production function design; for Russia as well for an extended design. The results show that in both countries there exist groups of regions with smaller sized research systems that report significantly different dynamics and thus knowledge production functions than regions with larger sized research systems. |
| Keywords: | Russian Federation, USA, Innovation System, Knowledge Production Function, Knowledge Generation, Quantile Regression, Regional Economics |
| JEL: | P25 O31 O57 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwu:schdps:sdp16003&r=cse |
| By: | Brandt, Loren (University of Toronto); Ma, Debin (London School of Economics); Rawski, Thomas (University of Pittsburgh) |
| Abstract: | We see industrialization in China the last 150 years as an ongoing process through which firms acquired and deepened manufacturing capabilities. Two factors have been consistently important to this process: openness to the international economy and domestic market liberalization. Openness and market liberalization are usually complementary: One without the other can seriously limit benefits. For a latecomer like China, modern industry initially finds its most success in more labor-intensive products that require only modest capabilities. Gradual upgrading entails the shift into more skilled-labor and capital-intensive products and processes. China's experience shows that government can both support and obstruct this process. Our review of long-term data shows that i) China's industrial growth rate has consistently exceeded that of Japan, India and Russia/USSR not just in recent decades but throughout most of the 20th century; ii) China's shift from textiles and other light industry toward defense-related industries began before rather than after 1949, as did the geographic spread of industry beyond the initial centers in the Lower Yangzi and the Northeast (formerly Manchuria) regions; iii) the state sector has consistently been a brake on industrial upgrading, highlighting the significance of current reform initiatives in determining China's future industrial path. |
| Keywords: | China, industrial development, structural change |
| JEL: | O N |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10096&r=cse |
| By: | Banegas, Ayelen |
| Abstract: | This paper tests for predictability of output growth in a panel of 22 emerging market economies. We use pooled panel data methods that control for endogeneity and persistence in the predictor variables to test the predictive power of a large set of financial aggregates. Results show that stock returns, the term spread, default spreads and portfolio investment flows help predict output growth in emerging markets. We also find evidence that suggests that global aggregates such as the performance of commodity markets, a cross-sectional firm size factor, and returns on the market portfolio contain information about the future state of the economy. We benchmark our results against those from the U.S. and find that there are differences in the ability of financial markets in predicting economic growth. Our results generalize to emerging markets previous findings in the empirical macro-finance literature on the linkages between financial market performance and the real economy. |
| Keywords: | Output growth predictability ; Emerging markets ; Leading indicators ; Financial variables |
| JEL: | E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1174&r=cse |
| By: | Fabrice Rousseau (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, Maynooth University.); Hervé Boco (University of Toulouse Toulouse Business School ISAE); Laurent Germain (Workplace-Name:University of Toulouse Toulouse Business School ISAE) |
| Abstract: | We develop a model in which informed overconfident market participants and informed rational speculators trade against trend-chasers. In this model positive feedback traders act as Computer Based Trading (CBT) and lead to positive feedback loops. In line with empirical findings we find a positive relationship between the volatility of prices and the size of the price reversal. The presence of positive feedback traders leads to a higher degree of trading activity by both types of informed traders. Overconfidence can lead to less price volatility and more efficient prices. Moreover, overconfident traders may be better off than their rational counterparts. |
| Keywords: | Overconfidence, Positive feedback trading, Bubbles, Excess volatility, Market efficiency, Computer Based Trading, Algorithmic Trading. |
| JEL: | D43 D82 G14 G24 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:may:mayecw:n270-16.pdf&r=cse |
| By: | Dudley, William (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | Remarks at Bank Indonesia–Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint International Seminar, Bali Indonesia. |
| Keywords: | credit availability; measurement problem; output growth; price inflation; inflation expectations; asset purchases |
| Date: | 2016–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:213&r=cse |
| By: | Kastner, Lisa |
| Abstract: | Dodd-Frank, the US financial reform law passed in response to the 2008 financial crisis, established the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), a new federal regulator with the sole responsibility of protecting consumers from unfair, deceptive, or abusive practices. This decision marked the end of a highly politicized reform debate in the US Congress, involving lobbying from business associations and civil society groups, in which proponents of the new bureau would normally have been considered to be much weaker than its opponents. Paradoxically, an emerging civil society coalition successfully lobbied decision-makers and countered industry attempts to prevent industry capture. What explains the fact that rather weak and peripheral actors prevailed over more resourceful and dominant actors? The goal of this study is to examine and challenge questions of regulatory capture by concentrated industry interests in the reform debates in response to the credit crisis which originated in the US in 2007. The analysis suggests that for weak actors to prevail in policy conflicts over established, resource-rich opponents, they must undertake broad coalition-building among themselves and with influential elite allies outside and inside of Congress who share the same policy goals. |
| Keywords: | financial crisis,financial regulation,consumer protection,interest groups,lobbying |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:maxpod:161&r=cse |
| By: | Laura Sosinsky; Karen Ruprecht; Diane Horm; Kerry Kriener-Althen; Cheri Vogel; Tamara Halle |
| Abstract: | This review of research on relationship-based care practices outlines considerations for implementing these practices in Early Head Start and childcare centers serving infants and toddlers. |
| Keywords: | relationship-based, care, practice, infant, toddler, practice, policy, primary caregiving, federal, state, policies, early head start, licensing, QRIS, standards |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:960d8ea8d3f945b0861d03066f7f6f76&r=cse |
| By: | Koralova, Petya |
| Abstract: | River Danube is an international inland waterway that is part of the Rhine – Danube Core Network Corridor. The favorable geographic location of Slovakia and Bulgaria, as well as their outlet on the River Danube, are key factors for the insurance of better transport and trade relations among West of Europe and Middle East. In this regard, the main objective of the report is to reveal the perspectives for development of the trade relations between both countries via inland waterway transport. For that purpose, a review of the status quo of Bulgarian and Slovak ports is made, as well as an analysis of the cargo turnover, export, import and balances of trades of the countries. As a conclusion, the results of the current research are summarized. |
| Keywords: | trade relations, inland waterway transport, cargo turnover |
| JEL: | F16 |
| Date: | 2015–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72763&r=cse |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | This report summarizes the accomplishments of the Southeast Asia Department (SERD) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in knowledge management from 2012 to mid-2015 . It discusses how SERD has managed knowledge to create value for ADB’s developing member countries and other clients by adhering to the operations cycle as the focus of knowledge management, as well as by innovating measures to better respond to client knowledge needs including those that materialize outside the operations cycle. Looking ahead, it proposes strengthening programming for knowledge products and services, and boosting budgetary resources, to facilitate greater uptake and utilization of ADB knowledge products and services. |
| Keywords: | adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, southeast asia, adb knowledge solutions, knowledge management, adb knowledge management report, knowledge products and services, KPS, SERD accomplishments, SERD, adb developing member countries, DMCs |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt168151-2&r=cse |
| By: | Dupas, Pascaline; Karlan, Dean S.; Robinson, Jonathan; Ubfal, Diego |
| Abstract: | We experimentally test the impact of expanding access to basic bank accounts in Uganda, Malawi, and Chile. Over two years, 17%, 10%, and 3% of treatment individuals made five or more deposits, respectively. Average monthly deposits for them were at the 79th, 91st, and 96th percentiles of baseline savings. Survey data show no clearly discernible intention-to-treat effects on savings or any downstream outcomes. This suggests that policies merely focused on expanding access to basic accounts are unlikely to improve welfare noticeably since impacts, even if present, are likely small and diverse. |
| Keywords: | financial access; savings; banking; micro-finance; field experiment; multicountry; Uganda; Malawi; Chile |
| JEL: | C93 D14 G21 O12 O16 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11420&r=cse |
| By: | Wouter Zwysen (University of Essex); Simonetta Longhi (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | We compare employment and earnings of British graduates belonging to ethnic minorities to those of white British six months and three and a half years after graduation. Six months after graduation all ethnic minority graduates are less likely than whites to be employed but those who have a job earn similarly or more than whites. University choice, parental background and area characteristics account for a large part of the ethnic differences in earnings but do not explain ethnic differences in employment. Three and a half years after graduation the ethnic advantages in earnings disappear while employment penalties reduce. Both employment probability and earnings increase over the career in a similar way for whites and minorities, with only few exceptions. |
| Keywords: | School-to-work transitions; graduates; ethnic gaps; UK; longitudinal analysis |
| JEL: | I24 J15 R23 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1615&r=cse |
| By: | Peng, Lin; Roell, Ailsa; Tang, Hongfei |
| Abstract: | We examine, both theoretically and empirically, the determinants and performance impact of three measures of CEO incentives: pay-performance elasticity (PPE), semi-elasticity (PPSE), and sensitivity (PPS). Larger, more R&D intensive, and low-idiosyncratic risk firms have higher PPE and PPSE, resolving puzzling prior empirical findings based on PPS. Performance is generally hump-shaped in PPE and PPSE; shortfalls relative to predicted levels appear particularly detrimental to firm performance, suggesting that the average firm's incentives are at the low end of the optimal range. Overall, the results obtained with the PPE and PPSE measures accord better with economic intuition than those obtained using PPS. |
| Keywords: | Executive compensation; pay-for-performance elasticity |
| JEL: | G32 G34 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11417&r=cse |
| By: | Mark Rosenzweig (Economic Growth Center,Yale University); Christopher Udry (Economic Growth Center, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the generalizability of internally valid estimates of causal effects in a fixed population over time when that population is subject to aggregate shocks. This temporal external validity is shown to depend upon the distribution of the aggregate shocks and the interaction between these shocks and the casual effects. We show that returns to investment in agriculture, small and medium enterprises and human capital differ significantly from year to year. We also show how returns to investments interact with specific aggregate shocks, and estimate the parameters of the distributions of these shocks. We show how to use these estimates to appropriately widen estimated confidence intervals to account for aggregate shocks. |
| Keywords: | returns to investment, heterogeneity, treatment effect |
| JEL: | C93 O1 O13 O14 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egc:wpaper:1054&r=cse |
| By: | Daniel Rais |
| Abstract: | SECO Working Paper 9/2016 |
| Date: | 2016–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:999&r=cse |
| By: | Nobuyuki Hanaki (Université Côte d'Azur; GREDEG CNRS; Skema Business School; IUF); Alan Kirman (CAMS-EHESS; Aix Marseille University); Paul Pezanis-Christou (School of Economics, University of Adelaide) |
| Abstract: | The literature on learning in unknown environments emphasises reinforcing on actions which produce positive results. But, in some cases, success requires shifting from a currently successful actions to others. We examine, experimentally and theoretically in a very simple framework, how individuals initially learn by exploiting information from the pay-offs of actions taken but also from exploring new actions. We analyse if and how they learn that pay-offs are inter-temporally dependent. We then ran the same experiments but where individuals could observe the actions taken or the pay-offs obtained by others or both. Such observations improved pay-offs if one of the pair had learned to obtain the maximum pay-off. |
| Keywords: | Multi-armed bandit, reinforcement learning, eureka moment, pay-off patterns, observational learning |
| JEL: | D81 D83 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2016-24&r=cse |
| By: | Rosario Crino (Catholic University of Milan); Gino Gancia (CREI); Alessandra Bonfiglioli (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) |
| Abstract: | We study how financial frictions affect firm-level heterogeneity and trade in a model where productivity differences across monopolistically competitive firms are endogenous and depend on investment decisions at the entry stage. By increasing entry costs, financial frictions reduce the exit cutoff thereby lowering the value of investing in bigger projects with more dispersed outcomes. Hence, credit frictions make firms more homogeneous and hinder the volume of exports both along the intensive and the extensive margin. Export opportunities, instead, shift expected profits to the tail and increase the value of technological heterogeneity. We test these predictions using comparable measures of sale dispersion within 365 manufacturing industries in 119 countries, built from highly disaggregated US import data. Consistent with the model, financial development increases sale dispersion, especially in more financially vulnerable industries; sale dispersion is also increasing in measures of comparative advantage. These results are quantitatively important for explaining the effect of financial development and factor endowments on export sales. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:342&r=cse |
| By: | Rocha, Vera (Copenhagen Business School); van Praag, Mirjam C. (Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | Both organizational and sociological approaches in entrepreneurship research highlight the importance of social context in shaping individual preferences for entrepreneurship. An influential contextual factor that has not been studied in entrepreneurship research is one's boss at work. Do entrepreneurial bosses contribute to their employees' decisions to become entrepreneurs themselves? Using Danish register data of newly founded firms and their entrepreneurs and employees between 2003 and 2012, and employing methods that allow causal inferences, we show that entrepreneurial bosses indeed affect their employees' future entrepreneurship choices, especially if both boss and employee are female. We investigate two alternative underlying mechanisms that may shape the (female) boss' influence on (female) workers' entrepreneurship decisions. Our results consistently suggest that entrepreneurial bosses may act as role models for the entrepreneurship activities of their employees, especially between pairs of female bosses and female employees. We do not find any evidence on female bosses acting as "queen bees" at the workplace. Female entrepreneurial bosses may, thus, act as a lever to reducing the gender gaps in entrepreneurship rates. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, role models, gender gaps, female leadership |
| JEL: | L26 J24 J16 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10104&r=cse |
| By: | Rapoport, Hillel (Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews a growing literature on migration and globalization, focusing on its relevance for developing and emerging economies. It documents the role of diaspora networks in enhancing cross-border flows of goods, capital, and knowledge, eventually contributing to efficient specialization, investment, and productivity growth in the migrants' home-countries. Particular attention is paid to the role of skilled migrants, and to information imperfections reduction as the main channel for the documented effects. Overall, the evidence suggests that migrants contribute to the integration of their home-countries into the global economy. |
| Keywords: | migration, globalization, trade, FDI, financial flows, knowledge diffusion, development |
| JEL: | F21 F22 F63 J61 O11 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10109&r=cse |
| By: | McGrattan, Ellen R. (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) |
| Abstract: | Foreign investment into China has surged since the 1990s and become a topic of keen interest for both scholars and the media. While China has encouraged this investment with the goal of catching up technologically, close analysis reveals that only a small share of its foreign investment comes from the United States and other nations with the technology China seeks. Instead, inward foreign direct investment flows predominantly from Hong Kong and a few Caribbean nations. Two key factors behind this: China’s tax policy toward foreign investment and its “industrial” policies to encourage development and growth. Specifically, preferential tax treatment for foreign investment leads many Chinese businesses and households to “round-trip” investments; and policies requiring joint ventures between Chinese and foreign high-tech companies—while benefiting China enormously—discourage investment by multinationals from advanced countries. |
| Date: | 2016–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmep:16-9&r=cse |
| By: | Radygin Alexandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Apevalova Elena (RANEPA); Polezhaeva Natalia (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | Bankruptcy legislation in the post-Soviet Russia was for the first time introduced in 1992 by the Executive Order of the President “On Measures for the Support and Rehabilitation of Insolvent State-Owned Enterprises (Bankrupt Debtors) and the Application of Special Proceedings to Them” No. 623 of June 14, 1992, which stipulated grounds for liquidation of enterprises, special liquidation proceedings such as reorganization, rehabilitation, direct administration of the enterprise, independent management, auctions for sale of enterprise, and other provisions concerning bankruptcy. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, bankruptcy, public enterprises |
| JEL: | G33 G38 P2 P31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-246&r=cse |
| By: | Marcus Dillender (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research); Karen Mulligan (Middle Tennessee State University) |
| Keywords: | health insurance, medicare, individual market, marriage, employer benefits, ACA |
| JEL: | H55 J32 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:md-km&r=cse |
| By: | Fabrizio Panebianco; Thierry Verdier; Yves Zenou |
| Abstract: | Consider a network of firms where a firm T is given the opportunity to innovate a product (first-generation innovation). If successful, this firm can temporarily sell this innovation to her direct neighbors because this will give her access to a larger market. However, if her direct neighbors innovate themselves on top of firm T's innovation (second-generation innovations), then firm T loses the right to sell her initial innovation to the remaining firms in the market. We analyze this game where each firm (T and her direct neighbors) has to decide at which price they want to sell their innovation. We show that the optimal price policy of each firm depends on the level of property rights protection, the position of firm T in the network, her degree and the size of the market. We then analyze the welfare implications of our model where the planner that maximizes total welfare has to decide which firm to target. We show that it depends on the level of property rights protection and on the network structure in a non-trivial way. JEL classification: D85, L1, Z13. Keywords: Networks, diffusion centrality, targets, innovation. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:579&r=cse |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (East Asia Department, ADB, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (East Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | The Sanjiang Plain wetlands are among the most important wetlands in the People’s Republic of China with unique habitats, species, and ecology. There is a considerable body of literature devoted to various aspects of the Sanjiang Plain wetlands including their ecological values. Building on lessons from the Sanjiang Plain Wetlands Protection Project supported by the Asian Development Bank and the Global Environment Facility—and based on a comprehensive literature review and discussions with experts who have been directly involved in wetland conservation e?fforts—this publication synthesizes current knowledge on the Sanjiang Plain wetlands, best practices, and options for achieving sustainable wetland management. |
| Keywords: | wetlands, wetland management, environment, Sanjiang, Global Environment Facility |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt168005&r=cse |
| By: | Gershenson, Seth (American University); Hayes, Michael S. (Rutgers University) |
| Abstract: | We document externalities of the civic unrest experienced in Ferguson, MO following the police shooting of an unarmed black teenager. Difference-in-differences and synthetic control method estimates compare Ferguson-area schools to neighboring schools in the greater St. Louis area and find that the unrest led to statistically significant, arguably causal declines in students' math and reading achievement. Attendance is one mechanism through which this effect operated, as chronic absence increased by five percent in Ferguson-area schools. Impacts were concentrated in elementary schools and at the bottom of the achievement distribution and spilled over into majority black schools throughout the area. |
| Keywords: | civic unrest, Ferguson, achievement gaps, natural experiment, externalities |
| JEL: | I2 R00 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10091&r=cse |
| By: | Ilya Prakhov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Maria Bocharova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the determinants of student mobility under the unified system of admission in Russia and evaluates the barriers which still limit educational mobility. It is argued that even under the Unified State Examination (USE) and the decreased transaction costs of applying to universities, student mobility is directed towards more developed regional educational markets and richer regions, but is still limited due to the financial constraints in the absence of the additional student support. Russia is a unique case, because it consists of regions with a high variation in socio-economic development and has local higher education markets with different levels of competition between universities. This study shows the importance of the institutional characteristics of regions in student mobility |
| Keywords: | educational mobility, student mobility, university choice, the Unified State Exam |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:34edu2016&r=cse |
| By: | Yann Bramoullé; Caroline Orset |
| Abstract: | In their persistent fight against regulation, firms have developed specific strategies to take advantage of scientific uncertainty. They have spent large amounts of money to generate and publicize favorable scientific findings, to discredit and downplay unfavorable ones and to shape the public’s perceptions through large scale communication campaigns. We develop a new model to study the interplay between scientific uncertainty, firms’ communication and public policies. The government is benevolent but populist and maximizes social welfare as perceived by citizens. The industry can provide costly evidence that its activity is not harmful. Citizens incorrectly treat the industry’s information on par with scientific knowledge. We characterize the industry’s optimal communication policy. We find that communication effort is non-monotonous and discontinuous in scientific belief. As scientists become increasingly convinced that the industrial activity is harmful, firms first devote more and more resources to reassure people. When scientists’ beliefs reach a critical threshold, however, overcoming the scientific consensus becomes too costly and the industry stops its efforts abruptly. We then study the impacts of firms’ communication on scientific funding. Perversely, a populist government may want to support research to better allow firms to miscommunicate. Populist policies can entail significant welfare losses. Establishing an independent funding agency always reduces these losses and may lead to under- or over- investment in research with respect to the first-best. |
| Keywords: | Scientific Uncertainty, Populist Policies, Indirect Lobbying, Research Funding |
| JEL: | D12 L66 Q57 Q58 |
| Date: | 2015–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apu:wpaper:2015/02&r=cse |
| By: | Jorge Mario Uribe; Natalia Restrepo López |
| Abstract: | Dinámica del tipo de cambio, quiebre estructural e intervenciones de política en Colombia En este documento se explora el comportamiento reciente del tipo de cambio en Colombia durante el periodo 2000-2014. Se identifican algunas de las características del proceso estocástico que lo describe, haciendo énfasis en la detección de quiebres estructurales o raíces unitarias. Una vez detectados los quiebres estructurales en el tipo de cambio, se evalúa la coincidencia de estos con las intervenciones del banco central en el mercado cambiario. Los resultados señalan que el tipo de cambio puede ser descrito por una caminata aleatoria o por una serie sujeta a múltiples quiebres. En ninguno de los casos se puede atribuir la dinámica a las intervenciones del banco central |
| Keywords: | Caminata aleatoria, martingala, múltiples quiebres, política cambiaria Colombia, quiebre estructural |
| JEL: | C22 G15 G28 |
| Date: | 2015–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:014936&r=cse |
| By: | Ke Wang; Chia-Yen Lee; Jieming Zhang; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | The trend toward a more competitive electricity market has led to efforts by the electric power industry to develop advanced efficiency evaluation models that adapt to market behavior operations management. The promotion of the operational performance management of the electric power industry plays an important role in China's efforts toward energy conservation, emission control and sustainable development. Traditional efficiency measures are not able to distinguish sales effects from productive efficiency and thus are not sufficient for measuring the operational performance of an electricity generation system for achieving its specific market behavior operations management goals, such as promoting electricity sales. Effectiveness measures are associated with the capacity of an electricity generation system to adjust its input resources that influence its electricity generation and, thus, the capacity to match the electricity demand. Therefore, the effectiveness measures complement the efficiency measures by capturing the sales effect in the operational performance evaluation. This study applies a newly developed data envelopment analysis-based effectiveness measurement to evaluate the operational performance of the electric power industry in China's 30 provincial regions during the 2006-2010 periods. Both the efficiency and effectiveness of the electricity generation system in each region are measured, and the associated electricity sales effects and electricity reallocation effects are captured. Based on the results of the effectiveness measures, the alternative operational performance improvement strategies and potentials in terms of input resources savings and electricity generation adjustments are proposed. The empirical results indicate that the current interregional electricity transmission and reallocation efforts are effective in China overall, and a moderate increase in electricity generation with a view to improving the effect on sales is more crucial for improving effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | China; Data envelopment analysis (DEA); Electricity generation system; Electricity reallocation; Electricity sales effect |
| JEL: | Q54 Q40 |
| Date: | 2016–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:biw:wpaper:93&r=cse |
| By: | Gurgul, Henryk; Lach, Łukasz |
| Abstract: | We suggest original modifications and extensions of the recently presented methodological developments in ex-post accounting framework in global value chains in order to obtain empirical results both for the analyzed group of ten CEE economies as well as at a country-and-sector-specific level. The empirical results confirm that the role of the selected CEE economies in transition in creating value added with respect to the total value added in the European Union in the GVC framework was biggest in the cases of agriculture-, wood-products-, metal-production, and travel-and-tourism-related sectors. We also found that, after two decades of transition, the measures of productivity in the examined economies in 2009 were still much lower as compared to the EU average for most of the sectors. Moreover, in the transition period, these indexes were increasing, especially after EU accession. In contrary, after two decades of transition, the measures of capital efficiency in the ten CEE economies in 2009 were comparable to the EU average for most of the sectors. Moreover, during this period, the growth rates of these indexes were, in general, positive. However, their growth rates dropped after EU accession. |
| Keywords: | value added; productivity; capital efficiency; CEE economies; international input-output matrices; transition |
| JEL: | C67 D57 F1 |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72738&r=cse |
| By: | Rachel Bray; Andrew Dawes; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti |
| Abstract: | Based on an evidence-focused literature review, this paper examines existing knowledge on raising adolescents in east and southern African countries, including Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. Country selection was based on the availability of relevant literature and data. The vast majority of studies on parenting and adolescent development is based on research from the global north. This research sought to deepen understandings of family life, care practices and support networks in the east and southern African region so as to inform policy and interventions that seek to improve adolescent-family relations and reduce risk behaviours. An evidence-informed model for understanding the ecology of adolescent-parent relationships in the cultural and economic contexts of the region is provided. In addition, a framework for exploring contextually-relevant dimensions of parenting through research and practice is offered. |
| Keywords: | adolescent health; adolescents; family environment; gender issues; HIV and AIDS; parent-child relationship; risk; |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:indipa:indipa856&r=cse |
| By: | Volovik Nadezhda (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, economic growth rates in countries, which are main trade partners of the Russian Federation, turned out to be below forecast of a year earlier. In 2015, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China[1], the China's GDP went up by 6.9% annualized, which is the minimum over the recent 25 years. Production growth in 2015 has slowed down to 6.0% and growth of the service sector up to 8.3%. In 2014, growth rates posted 7.3% and 7.8%, respectively. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, terms of trade, regional pattern |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-251&r=cse |
| By: | Pramod Patel; Govind Dave |
| Abstract: | In recent times, the Libraries are transforming from just storehouses of collection of documents to vibrant service centers containing E-resources; rapidly moving towards digital libraries, e-libraries and virtual libraries. Information available in digital form demands latest methods for its handling for both the library professionals as well as users. Hence, there is a steady need for librarians and the students to learn the new skills to cope with the situation. There are several issues pertaining to the awareness and guidance among contemporary students regarding the methods, techniques and mannerisms of using the digital or E resources. The researcher, hereby, aims to study the difficulties that the management students face in various areas like awareness of library services, availability of abstract search, prominently display of e-database in library, technical support, time factor, scattered information and issues related to power supply and backup. Key words: Library, E-resources, Information Science, Search Pattern, Awareness, Library Facilities |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-06-04&r=cse |
| By: | Quynh Anh VO (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines potential impacts of banks' leverage on their incentives to manage their liquidity. We analyse a model where banks control their liquidity risk by managing their liquid asset positions. In the basic framework, a model with a single bank, where the possibility of selling long-term assets when in need of liquidity is not taken into account, we find that the bank chooses to prudently manage its liquidity risk only when its leverage is low. In a model with multiple banks and a secondary market for long-term assets, we find that a banking system where banks are highly leveraged can be prone to liquidity crises. Our model predicts a typical pattern of liquidity crises that is consistent with what was observed during the 2007-2009 crisis. |
| Keywords: | Leverage, Liquidity Risk, Moral Harzard, Cash-In-The-Market Pricing |
| JEL: | G21 D82 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1551&r=cse |
| By: | Naima Khashimova; Jamola Khusanjanova |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes new approach to the disclosure of the investment potential and frames new definition of the investment potential,which extends the concept of investment potential and gives finished look to this notion. In contrast to the classical theory of development, without rejecting and challenging its postulates and laws, this paper firstly introduces to the theory of the investment potential, new conceptual notion - the generation of investment potential. Key words: investment, uzbekistan, investment potential |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-06-14&r=cse |
| By: | Radygin Alexandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with the issues of public sector and privatization in Russia in 2015. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, public sector, privatization |
| JEL: | K11 H82 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-247&r=cse |
| By: | Emde, Simon |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:82249&r=cse |
| By: | Cañón Salazar Carlos Iván;Gallón Santiago;Olivar Santiago |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a systemic risk index based on Functional Data Analysis (FDA), overcoming salient shortcomings of standard methodologies related to data usage, data sparseness, and high dimensionality issues. Using Mexican data, a set of systemic risk indexes are constructed and we show that the proposed functional index captures new information, and through simulations, that it outperforms previous methods when the indicators become increasingly nonlinear. Finally, we show which indexes serve as complements, and which are the best early warning indicators. |
| Keywords: | Systemic Risk; Functional Data Analysis; Dimensionality Reduction; Signal Informativeness |
| JEL: | G01 G10 G17 G18 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2016-12&r=cse |
| By: | David Cantarero Prieto; Marta Pascual Sáez |
| Abstract: | El sistema actual de financiación autonómica se ha caracterizado por no proporcionar suficiencia financiera en muchas regiones a fin de garantizar su nivel de gasto social. Se mantiene de este modo cierto desequilibrio vertical acentuado en los últimos años tras la plena asunción de competencias en educación y sanidad. Igualmente, las variables que se utilizaron al determinar las necesidades de gasto regionales así como su ponderación generaron amplias diferencias en financiación per cápita ajustada y la necesidad de tener que adaptarla a las necesidades reales. En base a lo anterior, y de cara a la reforma del sistema de financiación en especial en la parte correspondiente a los gastos de tipo social, el presente trabajo analiza su cobertura así como los diferentes factores que influyen en dicha problemática. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2016-27&r=cse |
| By: | Fuad Aleskerov; Victoria Oleynik |
| Abstract: | The multidimensional extension of the Aleskerov-Golubenko polarization index is developed. Several versions of the polarization index are proposed based on different distance functions. Basic properties of the index are examined. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1608.01351&r=cse |
| By: | Wolfgang Maennig (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg); Christian Wellbrock (Assistant Professor for media management at the University of Hamburg's School of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, University of Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | Deutschland wird von Japan überholt, Russland-Bann ohne große Auswirkungen, Brasilien macht großen Satz nach vorn, USA und China bleiben führend. |
| Date: | 2016–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hce:wpaper:056&r=cse |
| By: | Pingjin Deng |
| Abstract: | In this contribution we derive an explicit formula for the boundary non-crossing probabilities for Slepian processes associated with the piecewise linear boundary function. This formula is used to develop an approximation formula to the boundary non-crossing probabilities for general continuous boundaries. The formulas we developed are easy to implement in calculation the boundary non-crossing probabilities. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1608.01133&r=cse |
| By: | Dalibor Gottwald (University of Pardubice); Libor Švadlenka (University of Pardubice); Hana Pavlisová (Palacký University in Olomouc) |
| Abstract: | Postal e-services and human capital as a part of intellectual capital are currently two much discussed concepts in the context of developing countries. This paper uses Human Capital Index (HCI) and Postal E-services index (PES index) in order to analyze the level of development of developing countries and to point to the inaccuracy of the developed/developing classification of the World Bank. The paper has two objectives: to discover whether there is a statistical dependence between human capital and postal e-services in developing countries as it is in developed countries, and to create a new subgroup of " more developed " developing countries where this dependence confirms. Results of this paper document that there is a great diversity among developing countries and that additional subgroups may be defined within the rather broad classification of the World Bank, which is based on the GNI per capita indicator only. Human capital is being under scrutiny in numerous contexts but not yet in the context of postal e-services. Our paper presents a new method of analyzing the level of development and widens the range of aspects that must be taken into consideration when implementing measures to promote development. |
| Keywords: | developing countries,Africa,Asia,human capital,e-services |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01307145&r=cse |
| By: | Susmita Bhaduri; Dipak Ghosh; Subhadeep Ghosh |
| Abstract: | We give emphasis on the use of chaos-based rigorous nonlinear technique called Visibility Graph Analysis, to study one economic time series - gold price of USA. This method can offer reliable results with fiinite data. This paper reports the result of such an analysis on the times series depicting the fluctuation of gold price of USA for the span of 25 years(1990 - 2013). This analysis reveals that a quantitative parameter from the theory can explain satisfactorily the real life nature of fluctuation of gold price of USA and hence building a strong database in terms of a quantitative parameter which can eventually be used for forecasting purpose. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1608.01103&r=cse |
| By: | Timothy Kehoe (University of Minnesota); Sewon Hur (University of Pittsburgh); Kim Ruhl (New York University Stern School of Busi); Jose Asturias (Georgetown University) |
| Abstract: | In what order should a developing country adopt policy reforms? Do some policies complement each other? Do others substitute for each other? To address these questions, we develop a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with entry and exit of firms that are monopolistic competitors. Distortions in the model include barriers to entry of firms, barriers to international trade, and barriers to contract enforcement. We find that a reform that reduces one of these distortions has different effects depending on the other distortions present. In particular, reforms to trade barriers and barriers to the entry of new firms are substitutable, as are reforms to contract enforcement and trade barriers. In contrast, reforms to contract enforcement and the barriers to entry are complementary. Finally, the optimal sequencing of reforms requires reforming trade barriers before contract enforcement. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:316&r=cse |
| By: | Simone Cerreia Vioglio; Fabio Maccheroni; Massimo Marinacci |
| Abstract: | We study absolute and relative attitudes toward ambiguity, determined by wealth effects, from a preferential viewpoint. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:578&r=cse |
| By: | Piermartini, Roberta; Yotov, Yoto V. |
| Abstract: | The objective of this manuscript is to serve as a practical guide for estimations with the structural gravity model. After a brief review of the theoretical foundations, we summarize the main challenges with gravity estimations and we review the solutions to address those challenges. Then, we integrate the latest developments in the empirical gravity literature and we offer six recommendations to obtain reliable partial equilibrium estimates of the effects of bilateral and non-discriminatory trade policies within the same comprehensive, and theoretically-consistent econometric specification. Our recommendations apply equally to analyses with aggregate and disaggregated data. Interpretation, consistent aggregation methods, and data challenges and sources for gravity estimations are discussed as well. Empirical exercises demonstrate the usefulness, validity, and applicability of our methods. |
| Keywords: | Structural Gravity,Trade Policy,Estimation,Partial Equilibrium Analysis |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201610&r=cse |
| By: | Beladi, Hamid (College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio); Chao, Chi-Chur (Department of Economics, Deakin Business School, Deakin University); Ee, Mong Shan (Department of Finance, Deakin Business School, Deakin University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of capital market distortion on income distribution and social welfare in a developing dual economy. In addition to capital market distortion, we also consider the distortion that exists in the labor market. In particular, wage inequality is a consequence of the labor market distortion. The capital market distortion can lead to capital misallocation, which further affects the factor returns in the economy. We find that in the short run, a rise in the capital market distortion in favor of the urban firms do not yield a significant impact on wage inequality. However, the preferential policy on lower capital costs to the urban firms can attract new entry to the urban sector, which could raise skilled wages through an increase in the demand for skilled labor, but lower unskilled wages by substituting capital for unskilled labor. Thus, the existence of the capital market distortion can contribute to wage inequality in the economy via firm dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Capital market distortion, firm entry, wage inequality, developing economies |
| JEL: | L52 O18 R58 |
| Date: | 2016–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2016-05&r=cse |
| By: | Dudley, William (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | Remarks at Bank Indonesia–Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint International Seminar, Bali Indonesia. |
| Keywords: | financial market conditions; global economy; interdependency; domestic mandate; Summary of Economic Projections (SEP); FOMC statements; clarity; household longer-term inflation expectations |
| Date: | 2016–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:214&r=cse |
| By: | Barbara Rossi; Tatevik Sekhposyan; Matthieu Soupre |
| Abstract: | We propose a decomposition to distinguish between Knightian uncertainty (ambiguity) and risk, where the ?rst measures the uncertainty about the probability distribution generating the data, while the second measures uncertainty about the odds of the outcomes when the probability distribution is known. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) density forecasts to quantify overall uncertainty as well as the evolution of the di¤erent components of uncertainty over time and investigate their importance for macroeconomic ?uctuations. We also study the behavior and evolution of the various components of our decomposition in a model that features ambiguity and risk. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty, Risk, Ambiguity, Knightian Uncertainty, Survey of Professional Forecasters, Predictive Densities. |
| JEL: | C22 C52 C53 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1531&r=cse |
| By: | Elettra Agliardi (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy) |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:16-22&r=cse |
| By: | Emanuele Forlani (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia); Elisabetta Lodigiani (Department of Economics, University of Venice Ca' Foscari); Concetta Mendolicchio (Institute for Employment Research, IAB) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we assess the impact of international migration, and the induced home-care service labour supply shock, on fertility decisions and labour supply of native females in Germany. Specifically, we consider individual data of native women from the German Socio-Economic Panel and we merge them with the data on the share of female immigrants and other regional labour market characteristics. We find that an increase of the share of female immigrants at the local level induces women to work longer hours and positively affects the probability to have a child. This effect strengthens for (medium) skilled women and, among them, for women younger than 35 years of age. The negative change in household work attitude confirms the behavioural validity of our results. |
| Keywords: | Female labour, time allocation, fertility, international migration |
| JEL: | J13 J22 J61 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0125&r=cse |
| By: | Chen, Daniel L.; Moskowitz, Tobias; Shue, Kelly |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:30556&r=cse |
| By: | Susan Vroman (Georgetown University); Monica Robayo-Abril (Georgetown University); James Albrecht (Georgetown University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we extend the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model of equilibrium unemployment to incorporate public-sector employment. We calibrate the model to Colombian data and analyze the effects of public-sector wage and employment policy on the unemployment rate, on the division of employment between the private and public sectors, and on the distributions of waes, productivities and education in the two sectors. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:311&r=cse |
| By: | Magali Aubert (UMR MOISA - Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - INRA Montpellier - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] - CIHEAM - Centre International des Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes); Geoffroy Enjolras (CERAG. Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Appliquées à la Gestion - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | Les circuits courts sont désormais un mode de commercialisation reconnu dans l'agriculture française et adopté largement par certains secteurs. Cet article s'inscrit dans le corpus croissant des études sur les circuits courts en proposant une étude de la dynamique de l'adoption de la vente au détail. Il s'appuie sur la base de données du RICA pour les années 2006 à 2012 et considère des exploitations présentes en continu sur cette période. Des statistiques descriptives sont complétées par un modèle de sélection en deux étapes d'Heckman qui considère la vente au détail et sa durée d'adoption comme variables expliquées. Les résultats confirment le lien entre niveau de formation de l'exploitant, utilisation de main-d'œuvre, usage des produits phytosanitaires et adoption des circuits courts de commercialisation. Ils mettent en évidence la relation entre la réduction de main-d'œuvre et des produits phytosanitaires, l'établissement d'une situation financière saine, ainsi que des particularités sectorielles dans la durée d'adoption de la vente au détail. En contribuant à une connaissance plus approfondie des modes de commercialisation en vente directe, ces résultats traduisent l'émergence d'un modèle spécifique d'exploitations centré autour de l'utilisation des circuits courts. |
| Keywords: | vente au détail,rica,viticulture,maraîchage,arboriculture,heckman |
| Date: | 2015–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01296421&r=cse |
| By: | Knobel Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Baeva Marina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | With Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on August 22, 2012, the country joined the mechanism of settlement of trade disputes in the WTO. Such a mechanism operates in the WTO in accordance with the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU). So, from August 2012 Russia has the right to protect its trade interests by means of the above instrument. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, WTO, trade disputes |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-250&r=cse |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | The main focus of the paper is the growth process in transition countries in the period 1992-2002, by taking the production function approach. The empirical cross-section study performed found that initial life expectancy and net savings speed up growth while death rate, inflation, and terms of trade hamper the increase in GDP. The paper also aims at policy implications, such as better spending in the legal system, health care and social security could help governments foster the restructuring process and decrease the effect of the mistakes done in the past. |
| Keywords: | Growth,transition countries |
| JEL: | C01 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:144530&r=cse |
| By: | Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sternik G. (Plekhanov REA) |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with the issues of price dynamics on residential property on secondary and primary markets |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, residential property |
| JEL: | K11 H82 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-243&r=cse |
| By: | Idrisov Georgy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kaukin Andrey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Ponomarev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Russia’s real economy continued throughout 2015 to accommodate itself to new terms of trade and a new geopolitical context, both of which rendered the dynamics of domestic market’s key indicators less stable and less foreseeable. To make sure that sectoral dynamics are interpreted correctly, analysis of time series in the short term should be attended with seasonal and calendar adjustments. In order to be certain that the available dynamics of industrial production indicates that a period of downturn (or growth) is over, recovery (or slowdown) processes are afoot, monthly series should be decomposed into calendar, seasonal, irregular and trend components.[1] It is the changes of the trend component that should be analyzed in order to provide a substantial interpretation of sectoral trends. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, Russian industry, industrial production |
| JEL: | C53 E37 L21 L52 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-253&r=cse |
| By: | Yasmina Bouzarour-Amokrane (LGP - Laboratoire Génie de Production - Ecole Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Tarbes); Ayeley Tchangani (UPS - Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse 3); François Pérès (LGP - Laboratoire Génie de Production - Ecole Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Tarbes) |
| Abstract: | In manufacturing sectors, firms are paying an increasing attention to sustainability concept with regard to their end-of-life products in order to respect environmental norms and satisfy the consumer sensitivity. This practise allows creating value by reintroducing dismantling and recovering parts and/or materials of end-of-life products into manufacturing process, or into maintenance process. Thus, deconstruction processes are developed in order to examine all activities addressing the end of life (EOL) systems to ensure its disposal according to environmental constraints when seeking an economic optimum. In this context, one of the first tasks to perform is to repatriate the EOL systems at lowest cost considering geographical optimization of treatment centers. Considering this point, the present paper proposes an evaluation and optimization approach for the withdrawal location process in the field of aircraft dismantling. Given the multitude and heterogeneity of characteristics to be taken into account, we propose to consider dismantling site location problem as multi-criteria/multi-objectives decision making problem and solve it using a new AHP-BOCR approach based on qualitative and quantitative evaluations. A bipolar structuring framework is considered to distinguish positive and negative aspects in the elicitation/evaluation process to avoid compensation and satisficing game theory is used as suitable mathematical tool for recommendation process. An experimental study is carried out to show the usefulness of the framework. |
| Keywords: | End-of-life product management,Reverse logistics,Withdrawal plan,BOCR analysis,Satisficing game |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01308899&r=cse |
| By: | Oke Chr. Beckmann & Susanne Royer (Europa-Universität Flensburg, International Institute of Management) |
| Abstract: | The focus of this research lies on the question of how the business model concept can be specified, systematically operationalized and adapted to different market contexts. In the existing literature there are many definitions of business models which include different components. We want to give a structured overview of comprehensive business model concepts and test if the definitions also reflect special market contexts such as platform markets. Platform markets are characterized by different market sides which are connected by network effects. Combining both areas, the aim is to come up with a comprehensive conceptualization of business models for researchers and practitioners acknowledging market characteristics. We test the resulting concept which we call “business model wheel” for the e-mobility market which we have chosen as an example for platform markets with strong network effects and identified differences between the business models of the electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers Tesla Motors and Renault. |
| Keywords: | Business models, market characteristics, platform markets, competitive advantage, case study, e-mobility |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fln:dgwopa:005&r=cse |
| By: | Chabé-Ferret, Bastien (Université catholique de Louvain); Machado, Joel (University of Luxembourg); Wahba, Jackline (University of Southampton) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how return migration intentions affect immigrants' behavior. Using a unique French data set, we analyze the relationship between return plans and several immigrants' behavior in the host and origin countries addressing the potential endogeneity between return plans and different investment decisions. We also investigate the potential trade-off and complementarities between various immigrants' investment behaviors. We find that temporary migrants are more likely to remit and invest in the country of origin, but less likely to invest in the host country. Moreover, our results show that there is no trade-off between immigrants' investment in the home and in the host country. In turn, we find substantial heterogeneity in behavior across migrants of different origins. |
| Keywords: | temporary migration, return intention, remittances |
| JEL: | F22 F24 D14 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10111&r=cse |
| By: | Bharti Venkatesh; Lalit Balani |
| Abstract: | Requirements are basic building block for any project clear requirements definitions are very important for any project. Without clearly spelt out requirements it is very difficult to develop a stable system. Worldwide percentage of successfully completed projects is very low, and most of the failures are attributed to unclear, ambiguous or undefined requirements. In Case of software projects, management of requirements is very critical for successful Project Management.This paper attempts to highlight what are the common causes for failure of requirement management process in software projects. Thispaper also highlights continuous usage of different metrics so that whenever the requirement management process performance goes off track, corrective action can be takeninstead of acting only after completion of the phase. Key words: Requirement Management, metrics, Stakeholders, Project Management |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-06-15&r=cse |
| By: | Chiu, Jonathan; Monnet, Cyril |
| Abstract: | The market for central bank reserves is mainly over-the-counter and exhibits a core-periphery network structure. This paper develops a model of relationship lending in the unsecured interbank market. In equilibrium, a tiered lending network arises endogenously as banks choose to build relationships in order to insure against liquidity shocks and to economize on the cost to trade in the interbank market. Relationships matter for banks’ bidding strategies at the central bank auction, and introduce a relationship premium that can significantly distort the observed overnight rate. For example, it can explain some anomalies in the level of interest rates – namely, the fact that banks sometimes trade above (resp. below) the central bank’s lending (resp. deposit) rate. The model also helps understand how monetary policy affects the network structure of the interbank market and its functioning, and how the market responds dynamically to an exit from the floor system. We also use the model to discuss the potential effects of bilateral exposure limit on relationship lending. |
| Keywords: | Interbank market, Relationships, Networks, Monetary policy, Corridor system, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:5210&r=cse |
| By: | Isaac Baley; Julio A. Blanco |
| Abstract: | Nominal shocks have long-lasting effects on real economic activity, beyond those implied by standard models that target the average frequency of price adjustment in micro data. This paper develops a price-setting model that explains this gap through the interplay of menu costs and uncertainty about idiosyncratic productivity. Uncertainty arises from firms' inability to distinguish between permanent and transitory productivity changes. Upon the arrival of a productivity shock, a firm's uncertainty spikes up and then fades with learning until the next shock arrives. These uncertainty cycles, when paired with menu costs, generate recurrent episodes of high adjustment frequency followed by episodes of low adjustment frequency at the firm level. A decreasing hazard rate of price adjustment results, as in the data. Taking into account this pricing behavior amplifies the persistence and reduces the pass-through of nominal shocks. |
| Keywords: | menu costs, uncertainty, information frictions, monetary policy, hazard rates |
| JEL: | D8 E3 E5 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:918&r=cse |
| By: | Isaac Baley; Julio A. Blanco |
| Abstract: | Nominal shocks have long-lasting effects on real economic activity, beyond those implied by standard models that target the average frequency of price adjustment in micro data. This paper develops a price-setting model that explains this gap through the interplay of menu costs and uncertainty about idiosyncratic productivity. Uncertainty arises from firms' inability to distinguish between permanent and transitory productivity changes. Upon the arrival of a productivity shock, a firm's uncertainty spikes up and then fades with learning until the next shock arrives. These uncertainty cycles, when paired with menu costs, generate recurrent episodes of high adjustment frequency followed by episodes of low adjustment frequency at the firm level. A decreasing hazard rate of price adjustment results, as in the data. Taking into account this pricing behavior amplifies the persistence and reduces the pass-through of nominal shocks. |
| Keywords: | Menu costs, uncertainty, information frictions, monetary policy, hazard rates. |
| JEL: | D8 E3 E5 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1532&r=cse |
| By: | Mónica Sofía Gómez; Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte; Andrés Fernando Carreño; Vicente Royuela |
| Abstract: | La calidad del trabajo abarca múltiples dimensiones objetivas y subjetivas, que pueden incluir las rentas del trabajo, la estabilidad laboral, la satisfacción laboral y la seguridad social. En este trabajo se sigue el método propuesto por Gómez et al. (2013), que introduce una nueva forma de calcular la calidad del trabajo, consistente en la medición de: i) el uso del enfoque de funcionamientos y las capacidades de Sen y ii) un método de conjuntos difusos. Usando la Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares (GEIH), se calcula un Índice Multidimensional de Calidad del Empleo (IMCE) a nivel nacional según edad, sexo, nivel educativo, tamaño de la empresa, y el sector de la industria. Un tema que se destaca de nuestros resultados es la existencia de una "Ciclo de calidad de vida laboral", con los puntajes más altos del índice a los 30 años, lo cual puede tener implicaciones importantes para el sistema de seguridad social. Classification JEL: J81, J89, J46, C02 |
| Keywords: | Calidad del empleo, conjuntos difusos, Colombia |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:region:230&r=cse |
| By: | Caglayan, Mustafa; Talavera, Oleksandr |
| Abstract: | Using a panel of Turkish commercial banks, we examine credit dollarization and its impact on banks' liquidity and profitability. Our estimates suggest that banks partially passthrough foreign denominated funds to borrowers in the form of foreign denominated credit. Furthermore, banks which lend in foreign denominated currency hold less liquid assets and experience higher return on assets. The results suggest that, when the domestic currency is stable, banks in Turkey manage their liquidity aggressively to earn higher returns on foreign denominated funds. |
| Keywords: | Financial Dollarization, Commercial Banks, Liquidity, Performance, Pass-through |
| JEL: | G20 G21 |
| Date: | 2016–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72812&r=cse |
| By: | Damien Ackerer (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - Swiss Finance Institute); Damir Filipović (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | We introduce a novel class of credit risk models in which the drift of the survival process of a firm is a linear function of the factors. These models outperform the standard affine default intensity models in terms of analytical tractability. The prices of defaultable bonds and credit default swaps (CDS) are linear in the factors. The price of a CDS option can be uniformly approximated by polynomials in the factors. An empirical study illustrates the versatility of these models by fitting CDS spread time series. |
| Keywords: | Credit Default Swap, Credit Default Swap Option, Credit Risk, Credit Valuation Adjustment, Survival Process |
| JEL: | G12 G13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1634&r=cse |
| By: | Aalia Cassim; Kezia Lilenstein; Morné Oosthuizen; Francois Steenkamp; Tara Caetano (University of Cape Town; Deputy Director) |
| Abstract: | This research seeks to explore the relationship between informality and inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa, with a particular focus on South Africa. South Africans typically hold one of two opposing views on the informal sector. The first is that informality should be encouraged as an under-utilised source of new employment; the second is that it should be discouraged as an inferior source of employment. The central research question is therefore: “Do informal labour markets promote or constrain inclusive growth?” In order to examine the hypotheses, we use three different methodologies. Firstly, we undertake a regional evidence synthesis examining literature and case studies from the sub-Saharan Africa region. Secondly, we expand on the South African case study and examine the nature of transitions within the labour market. Thirdly, we examine to what extent income shocks may impact the likelihood of engagement within the informal sector. |
| Keywords: | informality; inclusive growth, employment, labour markets, transitions, South Africa |
| JEL: | E26 J4 R11 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:201602&r=cse |
| By: | Meierrieks, Daniel; Renner, Laura |
| Abstract: | This contribution investigates the relationship between economic freedom and international migration. We argue that higher levels of economic freedom in the source countries of migration may discourage migration by generating more economic security, providing more economic opportunities and stimulating overall economic activity. Using a panel dataset on migration from 91 developing and emerging to the 20 most attractive OECD destination countries for the 1980-2010 period, we find that more economic freedom at home discourages high-skilled migration but does not matter to low-skilled migration. The negative association between economic freedom and high-skilled emigration also holds when we estimate (dynamic) panel models that allow for endogeneity in the economic freedom-migration nexus. Our findings suggest that high-skilled individuals are especially responsive to the economic incentives arising from economic freedom. This is especially true for those components of economic freedom associated with the provision of economic security in the form of wellprotected property rights, sound money and limited government involvement in the economic life. |
| Keywords: | economic freedom,international migration,low-skilled and high-skilled migration |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wgspdp:201605&r=cse |
| By: | Ruiz-Castillo, Javier; Carrasco, Raquel; Albarrán, Pedro |
| Abstract: | This paper compares the average productivity of migrants (who work in a country different from their country of origin) and stayers (whose entire academic career takes place in their country of origin) in a set of 2,530 highly productive economists that work in 2007 in a selection of the top 81 Economics departments worldwide. The main findings are the following two. Firstly, productivity comparisons between migrants and stayers depend on the cohort and the type of department where individuals work in 2007. For example, in the top U.S. departments, foreigners are more productive than stayers only among older individuals; in the bottom U.S. departments, foreigners are more productive than stayers for both cohorts, while in the other countries with at least one department in the sample the productivity of foreigners and stayers is indistinguishable for both cohorts. Secondly, when we restrict our attention to an elite consisting of economists with above average productivity, all productivity differences between migrants and stayers in the U.S. vanish. These results are very robust. However, our ability to interpret these correlations is severely limited by the absence of information on the decision to migrate. |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:23424&r=cse |
| By: | Tsagris, Michail; Preston, Simon; T.A. Wood, Andrew |
| Abstract: | In the context of data that lie on the simplex, we investigate use of empirical and exponential empirical likelihood, and Hotelling and James statistics, to test the null hypothesis of equal population means based on two independent samples. We perform an extensive numerical study using data simulated from various distributions on the simplex. The results, taken together with practical considerations regarding implementation, support the use of bootstrap-calibrated James statistic. |
| Keywords: | Compositional data, hypothesis testing, Hotelling test, James test, non parametric, empirical likelihood, bootstrap |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2016–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72771&r=cse |
| By: | Rossi, Barbara; Sekhposyan, Tatevik; Soupre, Mattheiu |
| Abstract: | We propose a decomposition to distinguish between Knightian uncertainty (ambiguity) and risk, where the first measures the uncertainty about the probability distribution generating the data, while the second measures uncertainty about the odds of the outcomes when the probability distribution is known. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) density forecasts to quantify overall uncertainty as well as the evolution of the different components of uncertainty over time and investigate their importance for macroeconomic fluctuations. We also study the behavior and evolution of the various components of our decomposition in a model that features ambiguity and risk. |
| Keywords: | Ambiguity; Knightian Uncertainty; Predictive Densities.; risk; Survey of Professional Forecasters; uncertainty |
| JEL: | C22 C52 C53 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11415&r=cse |
| By: | Vahagn Galstyan (Trinity College Dublin); Philip R. Lane (Central Bank of Ireland and Trinity College Dublin); Caroline Mehigan (OECD); Rogelio Mercado (Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Research on the geographical distribution of international portfolios has mainly focused on data aggregated to the country level. We exploit newly-available data that disaggregates the holders and issuers of international securities along sectoral lines. We find that patterns evident in the aggregate data do not uniformly apply across the various holding and issuing sectors, such that a full understanding of cross-border portfolio positions requires granular-level analysis. |
| Keywords: | International portfolios, International capital flows, Gravity models |
| JEL: | F30 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0916&r=cse |
| By: | Allin Cottrell (Wake Forest University); Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche Sociali); Matteo Pelagatti (Universita' di Milano - Bicocca) |
| Abstract: | We clarify a point regarding the appropriate measure(s) of the variance of smoothed disturbances in the context of linear state-space models. This involves explaining how two different concepts, which are sometimes given the same name in the literature, relate to each other. We also describe the behavior of several common software packages is in this regard. |
| Keywords: | State-space models, Disturbance smoother, Auxiliary residuals. |
| JEL: | C32 C63 |
| Date: | 2016–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wgretl:3&r=cse |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Central and West Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Central and West Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | The resurgence of conservative patriarchal values in Tajikistan have led to the rise of early marriages and polygamy, compromising women’s and girls’ opportunities to realize their full potential to live quality lives, and have deterred women from fully participating in and benefitting from development. This country gender assessment report re-examines the gender equality situation in the country, identifies critical gender issues such as gender-based barriers to economic opportunities, social services, and to leadership and decision-making posts. The report also provides sector-specific gender analyses and identifies entry points for mainstreaming gender in agriculture and natural resources, education, energy, entrepreneurship and SME development, and transport. |
| Keywords: | Tajikistan, women, gender issues, gender equality, gender mainstreaming, gender and development, gender index, gender roles, sex-disaggregated statistics, climate change, private sector, entrepreneurship, education, water, transport, energy, agriculture and natural resources, infrastructure, policy, gender institutions, leadership, civil society, decision-making, poverty, economic opportunities, health, violence against women, labor, migration, wages |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt168187-2&r=cse |
| By: | Klosterhuber, Wolfram (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Lehnert, Patrick (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Seth, Stefan (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | This data report describes the LIAB Cross-sectional Model 2 1993 - 2014 of the Linked Em-ployer-Employee Data from the IAB (LIAB QM2 9314). Additional Information Auszählungen frequencies and labels |
| Keywords: | IAB-Linked-Employer-Employee-Datensatz, Querschnittuntersuchung, Datenbank, Datenaufbereitung, Datenorganisation, Datenschutz, Datenzugang, Datenqualität, Stichprobenverfahren |
| Date: | 2016–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:201605_de&r=cse |
| By: | Kehoe, Timothy J. (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Pujolas, Pau S. (McMaster University); Ruhl, Kim J. (New York University) |
| Abstract: | We show that a trade model with an exogenous set of heterogeneous firms with fixed operating costs has the same aggregate outcomes as a span-of-control model. Fixed costs in the heterogeneous-firm model are entrepreneurs' forgone wage in the span-of-control model. |
| Keywords: | Span-of-control model; Firm heterogeneity; Income distribution; International trade |
| JEL: | D31 D43 F12 |
| Date: | 2016–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:533&r=cse |
| By: | Jozef Barunik; Evzen Kocenda; Lukas Vacha |
| Abstract: | We show how bad and good volatility propagate through forex markets, i.e., we provide evidence for asymmetric volatility connectedness on forex markets. Using high-frequency, intra-day data of the most actively traded currencies over 2007 - 2015 we document the dominating asymmetries in spillovers that are due to bad rather than good volatility. We also show that negative spillovers are chiefly tied to the dragging sovereign debt crisis in Europe while positive spillovers are correlated with the subprime crisis, different monetary policies among key world central banks, and developments on commodities markets. It seems that a combination of monetary and real-economy events is behind the net positive asymmetries in volatility spillovers, while fiscal factors are linked with net negative spillovers. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.08214&r=cse |
| By: | Danny Leipziger (George Washington University, The Growth Dialogue); Victoria Dodev |
| Abstract: | Some sources of heterogeneity among cities, i.e. age, gender, race, income, and education, have been the object of substantial inquiry. The reasons are obvious. These differences are easily observed and may have important implications for economic activity. This study considers another potentially important population characteristic, obesity. Descriptive statistics reveal that the intercity variance in obesity rates is substantial. Empirical results demonstrate that demographic and regional amenity variables all have a relation to intercity differences in obesity. Because obesity is important for climate preferences, performance, and productivity, its omission from previous studies and its correlation with amenity and demographic characteristics, could create problems for empirical research. For example, it is possible to explain the recent climate preference finding by Sinha and Cropper (2015) that willingness to pay for higher summer temperature is negatively correlated, Ï = − 0.83, with preferences for higher winter temperatures. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2016-13&r=cse |
| By: | Carole Yauk; Iain Lambert; Francesco Marchetti; George Douglas |
| Abstract: | Germ cell/heritable mutations are important regulatory endpoints for international agencies interested in protecting the health of future generations. However, germ cell mutation analysis has been hampered by a lack of efficient tools. The motivation for developing this AOP was to provide context for new assays in this field, identify research gaps and facilitate the development of new methods. In this AOP, a compound capable of alkylating DNA is delivered to the testes causing germ cell mutations and subsequent mutations in the offspring of the exposed parents. Although there are some gaps surrounding some mechanistic aspects of this AOP, the overarching AOP is widely accepted and applies broadly to any species that produces sperm. |
| Keywords: | male pre-meiotic germ cells, DNA repair, DNA alkylation, DNA adducts, heritable mutations |
| Date: | 2016–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaad:3-en&r=cse |
| By: | Waemustafa, Waeibrorheem; Abdullah, Azrul |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationships between the effectiveness of Shariah supervisory board (SSB), their remuneration and mode of financing Islamic bank. The SSB effectiveness is evaluated by an index based on 9 attributes score. This study comprises 18 Islamic banks in which operating in Malaysia from the year 2012 to 2013 as a sample. Our regression analysis shows that the effectiveness of SSB does not concern with the mode of Islamic bank financing. However, we found that SSB remuneration and bank’s financial growth shown a positive and significant relationship with mode of financing. The implications of these findings are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Shariah Supervisory Board, Mode of Financing, Islamic Bank. |
| JEL: | G21 G32 G38 G39 M41 M48 M49 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72766&r=cse |
| By: | Alesina, Alberto Francesco; Michalopoulos, Stelios; Papaioannou, Ellias |
| Abstract: | This study explores the consequences and origins of between-ethnicity economic inequality across countries. First, combining satellite images of nighttime luminosity with the historical homelands of ethnolinguistic groups we construct measures of ethnic inequality for a large sample of countries. We also compile proxies of overall spatial inequality and regional inequality across administrative units. Second, we uncover a strong negative association between ethnic inequality and contemporary comparative development; the correlation is also present when we condition on regional inequality, which is itself related to under-development. Third, we investigate the roots of ethnic inequality and establish that differences in geographic endowments across ethnic homelands explain a sizable fraction of the observed variation in economic disparities across groups. Fourth, we show that ethnic-specific inequality in geographic endowments is also linked to under-development. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hrv:faseco:27759620&r=cse |
| By: | Mogens, Fosgerau |
| Abstract: | This note develops a model of product differentiation that can be estimated using standard regression techniques and applies it to a panel data set of new car sales. The model allows for complex substitution patterns according to an overlapping nest structure that makes cars closer substitutes if the share brand, body type, and/or quality level. A nest comprising all the car alternatives ensure that they are closer substitutes with each other than with the outside good. In addition, the model comprises fixed effects by car model, controlling for unobserved car quality. |
| Keywords: | Market shares; complex substitution; endogeneity; discrete choice; new cars |
| JEL: | C23 C25 C26 D12 L62 |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72786&r=cse |
| By: | Danila, Marius |
| Abstract: | As of today any official or informal communication with respect to Europe’s economic future is most of the time accompanied by a unique keyword: „uncertainty”; several factors are at the same time being mentioned: global economy trends, fossil fuels price, Brexit, refugee crisis. With respect to the European financial industry a fundamental factor generates short and medium term uncertainty – the fact that, 8 years since the beginnings of the global financial crisis, the European financial sector, especially the banking industry, is still in transition. Despite the optimism shown by many European officials, the continental banking system is facing an impressive list of challenges. This analysis tries to put into spotlight some of the most important such challenges together with identifying appropriate ways of mitigation. |
| Keywords: | European banking, European Central Bank, non performing loans, asset quality, FinTech, interest rates |
| JEL: | E43 E44 F33 G15 |
| Date: | 2016–04–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72768&r=cse |
| By: | Anderson, D. Mark (Montana State University); Brown, Ryan (University of Colorado Denver); Charles, Kerwin Kofi (Harris School, University of Chicago); Rees, Daniel I. (University of Colorado Denver) |
| Abstract: | Occupational licensing is intended to protect consumers. Whether it does so is an important, but unanswered, question. Exploiting variation across states and municipalities in the timing and details of midwifery laws introduced during the period 1900-1940, and using a rich data set that we assembled from primary sources, we find that requiring midwives to be licensed reduced maternal mortality by 6 to 7 percent. In addition, we find that requiring midwives to be licensed may have had led to modest reductions in nonwhite infant mortality and mortality among children under the age of 2 from diarrhea. These estimates provide the first econometric evidence of which we are aware on the relationship between licensure and consumer safety, and are directly relevant to ongoing policy debates both in the United States and in the developing world surrounding the merits of licensing midwives. |
| Keywords: | occupational licensing, midwives, maternal mortality, infant mortality |
| JEL: | J08 I18 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10074&r=cse |
| By: | H. Evren Damar; Adi Mordel |
| Abstract: | We study how changes in prudential requirements affect cross-border lending of Canadian banks by utilizing an index that aggregates adjustments in key regulatory instruments across jurisdictions. We show that when a destination country tightens local prudential measures, Canadian banks lend more to that jurisdiction, and the effect is particularly significant when capital requirements are tightened and weaker if banks lend mainly via affiliates. Our evidence also suggests that Canadian banks adjust foreign lending in response to domestic regulatory changes. The results confirm the presence of heterogeneous spillover effects of foreign prudential requirements. |
| Keywords: | Financial Institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies |
| JEL: | G01 F34 G21 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-34&r=cse |
| By: | Yan Bai (University of Rochester); Luigi Bocola (Northwestern University); Cristina Arellano (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) |
| Abstract: | During the recent European debt crisis, sovereign spreads rose substantially and economic activity collapsed. In this paper, we develop an integrated framework of government debt crises and aggregate fluctuations in an environment of firms default risk. Firms face interest rates that depend on their default risk and also on government default risk. We consider two sources of aggregate fluctuations; one arising from the public sector that directly affects government spreads and another one arising in the private sector which affects the productivity of all firms. Public shocks affect firms differentially based on their credit needs. Aggregate productivity shocks, in contrast, affect all firms equally. We use firm level data and our model to identify the source of the crisis. We find that public shocks account for about 50% of the decline in output for Italy. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:309&r=cse |
| By: | Firdaus Hafidz (Academic Unit of Health Economics, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds); Tim Ensor (Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds); Sandy Tubeuf (Academic Unit of Health Economics, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds) |
| Abstract: | Limited health care resources and budget restrictions in low-and middle- income countries (LMICs) have led policy makers to improve efficiency. Therefore, it is essential to understand how efficiency has been measured in the LMICs setting. To date, no systematic review has been conducted to assess efficiency measurement in health facilities in LMICs. This paper synthesises studies of efficiency measurement in health facilities in LMICs. A systematic search of Embase, MEDLINE, Econlit and Global Health identified 4944 articles with a further 15 articles identified through manual searching. A total of 95 papers were eligible for inclusion. These covered a wide range type of health facilities with more than half of the studies (61%) were hospitals. Most studies (67%) employed Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA,) as efficiency measurement method. Studies usually included physical and financial inputs while they used the number of outpatients, inpatients, or bed-days as outputs. We identified main internal and external contextual factors applied to explore the determinant of health facility efficiency. Most studies suggested policies focused on input optimisation, rather than increasing production. The paper concludes by highlighting the need for routine benchmarking as a monitoring and evaluation tool to improve efficiency |
| Keywords: | efficiency, health facility, low- and middle-income countries |
| JEL: | I10 D24 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lee:wpaper:1605&r=cse |
| By: | Brian D. Varian (London School of Economics and Political Science) |
| Abstract: | This paper calculates indicators of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) for 17 British manufacturing industries for the years 1880, 1890, and 1900. The resulting indicators show that the late-Victorian ‘workshop of the world’ was at a marked comparative disadvantage in a number of manufacturing industries. The paper then proceeds to identify the factor determinants of Britain’s manufacturing comparative advantages (disadvantages) using a four-factor Heckscher-Ohlin model that relies upon these indicators. In contrast with previous scholarship, the manufacturing comparative advantages of late-Victorian Britain were in the relatively labour non-intensive industries, and this pattern became more pronounced throughout the period. The paper concludes with the observation that the factor determinants of Britain’s manufacturing comparative advantages appear closer to those of the United States than had traditionally been thought. |
| Keywords: | comparative advantage, Heckscher-Ohlin, manufacturing, Britain, nineteenth century |
| JEL: | F11 F14 N63 N73 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0097&r=cse |
| By: | Pablo Hernández de Cos (Banco de España); Aitor Lacuesta (Banco de España); Enrique Moral-Benito (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | This document analyses real-time revisions in output gap estimates published by the European Commission for 15 countries over the period 2002-2014. We find that output gap revisions (both in levels and changes) are mainly driven by GDP growth forecast errors. Also, output gap revisions have opposite signs across expansions and recessions: real-time output gaps are downward biased (smaller than the final estimates) during expansions and upward biased (higher than the final estimates) in recessions. Our findings may have relevant implications for the conduct and assessment of fiscal policy in real time. For instance, according to our results, real-time estimates of the structural balance would be upward biased in expansions and downward biased in recessions. This implies that the fiscal stance of an economy estimated in real time would be excessively expansionary in recessions as compared to the final estimate. As a result, we argue that corrections to real-time estimates of the structural balance suggested in the literature should be contingent on the degree of slack in the economy. |
| Keywords: | output-gaps, real-time data, fiscal policy |
| JEL: | E32 E52 E60 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:1605&r=cse |
| By: | Bingley, Paul (Danish National Centre for Social Research (SFI)); Cappellari, Lorenzo (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Tatsiramos, Konstantinos (University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the influence of family, schools and neighborhoods on life-cycle earnings inequality. We develop an earnings dynamics model linking brothers, schoolmates and teenage parish neighbors using population register data for Denmark. We exploit differences in the timing of family mobility and the partial overlap of schools and neighborhoods to separately identify sorting from community and family effects. We find that family is far more important than community in influencing earnings inequality over the life cycle. Neighborhoods and schools influence earnings only early in the working life and this influence falls rapidly and becomes negligible after age 30. |
| Keywords: | sibling correlations, neighborhoods, schools, life-cycle earnings, inequality |
| JEL: | D31 J62 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10089&r=cse |
| By: | Barbara Rossi; Tatevik Sekhposyan; Matthiew Soupre |
| Abstract: | We propose a decomposition to distinguish between Knightian uncertainty (ambiguity) and risk, where the ?rst measures the uncertainty about the probability distribution generating the data, while the second measures uncertainty about the odds of the outcomes when the probability distribution is known. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) density forecasts to quantify overall uncertainty as well as the evolution of the di¤erent components of uncertainty over time and investigate their importance for macroeconomic ?uctuations. We also study the behavior and evolution of the various components of our decomposition in a model that features ambiguity and risk. |
| Keywords: | uncertainty, risk, ambiguity, knightian uncertainty, survey of professional forecasters, predictive densities |
| JEL: | C22 C52 C53 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:920&r=cse |
| By: | Dietzenbacher, Bas (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Estévez-Fernández, A.; Borm, Peter (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Hendrickx, Ruud (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes bankruptcy problems with nontransferable utility as a generalization of bankruptcy problems with monetary estate and claims. Following the classical axiomatic theory of bankruptcy, we formulate some appropriate properties for NTU-bankruptcy rules and study their implications. We explore duality of bankruptcy rules and we derive several characterizations of the generalized proportional rule and the constrained relative equal awards rule. |
| Keywords: | NTU-bankruptcy problem; axiomatic analysis; duality; proportional rule; constrained relative equal awards rule |
| JEL: | C79 C63 D74 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:959bd6d8-7c49-4479-9fd3-bacdc3b6d912&r=cse |
| By: | Pencavel, John (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Observations on munition workers are organized to examine the relationship between their output each week, their working hours and days each week, and their working hours and days in adjacent weeks. The hypothesis is that workers need to recover from work and a long working week results in greater fatigue and stress and yet provides insufficient time for recuperation before the next week's work opens. Workers require time off the job to restore their physical, mental, and emotional capacities and, if a long working week provides inadequate time to repair, their subsequent work performance suffers. |
| Keywords: | working hours, output, productivity, recovery |
| JEL: | J24 J22 N34 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10103&r=cse |
| By: | Abramov Alexander (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | The year 2015 saw a continuation of the longest slump in the history of Russia's stock market, which had started in May 2008. In 1997–1998, after the RTS Index had dropped by 91.3%, and the MICEX Index - by 73.0%, from their pre-crisis highs over a period that lasted slightly more than a year, they both managed to recover their former quotes in 58 and 8 months respectively. Now, as of February 2016, after their plummet during the acute phase of the 2008 crisis, both these stock indices have never recovered: the MICEX Index over the period of 88 months, and the RTS Index – 85 months. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, financial markets, financial institutions |
| JEL: | G01 G12 G18 G21 G24 G28 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-265&r=cse |
| By: | Budría, Santiago (Universidad Pontificia Comillas); Swedberg, Pablo (St. Louis University); Fonseca, Marlene |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the impact of educational attainment on immigrant earnings in Spain using a Quantile Regression approach. Most of the previous research on the impact schooling on earnings has focused on the mean effect neglecting the discrepancies that arise from unobserved heterogeneity. This paper uses the Spanish National Immigrant Survey (NIS), a large-scale immigration survey published by the Spanish National Statistics Institute in 2008. We find that the return to higher education is on average roughly 17%. Interestingly, the impact is twice as strong (20.7%) for immigrants at the top two quintile(s) of the conditional earnings distribution than for those at the bottom of the distribution (10%). This result suggests that the benefits derived from higher education are particularly relevant for individuals with stronger unobserved abilities and marketable skills. By contrast, individuals in the middle and particularly lower quintiles fail to reap a significant return. The large degree of heterogeneity for the returns to schooling found in our research suggests that higher education may be less effective among specific population groups. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, quantile regression, wage inequality |
| JEL: | C29 D31 I21 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10064&r=cse |
| By: | Ismaël Rafaï (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS); Sébastien Duchêne (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS); Eric Guerci (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS); Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky (Paris School of Economics); Fabien Mathy (Université Côte d'Azur; BCL CNRS) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we will put forward an original experiment to reveal empirical "anomalies" in the process of acquisition, elaboration and retrieval of information in the context of reading. We show that the acquisition and elaboration of information leads to the formation of a mental picture that may be incompatible with the information stored in memory. To answer some specific questions, individuals make use of a mental picture rather than combine their stored information appropriately. Our hypothesis is that quantum cognition theory provides a fruitful interpretative framework to account for these anomalies. Finally, we provide evidence that individuals with a low CRT (Cognitive Reflection Test) score tend to demonstrate, more often than not, this particular behavior. |
| Keywords: | quantum cognition, learning, experimental economics |
| JEL: | C91 C90 D83 C21 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2016-23&r=cse |
| By: | Pierre FAUVET |
| Abstract: | We consider the market approval process of a potential dangerous product for health and/or environment. In this context, the impact of a failure responsibility of the industrial pressure groups is studied. This failure may be due to the fact either that the industrial group responsibility is not recognized, or that the victims group does not request compensation for damages. Assuming that the pressure groups have private information about the damages, we analyse the incentives for a benevolent regulator to pay attention to the lobbying activities through a contest (Tullock, 1980). In particular, if there is no failure of th e responsibility system, we attest that the regulator could pay attention to the lobbies. However, failure responsibility of the industrial group never implements an optimal state of economy. Finally, we find that it is socially beneficial that the pressure groups play sequentially. |
| Keywords: | market approval process; contest; responsibility failure. |
| JEL: | C72 D7 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2016-16&r=cse |
| By: | Zadonsky Georgy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | According to the data released by the Rosreestr, the area of land plots owned by Russian nationals keeps decreasing and as of 1 January 2015 amounted to 115,400,000 ha or 6.8% of the land of the Russian Federation against 117m ha (6.84%) as of 1 January 2014. On the contrary, the area of land in public and municipal ownership and ownership of legal entities keeps growing. Within a year, the area of land plots owned by legal entities increased by 1.3m ha and amounted to 17.2m ha or 1.0% of the land of the Russian Federation. The area of land plots in public and municipal ownership increased by 37,900 ha. As of 1 January 2015, Russian nationals’ land shares decreased by 3.0m ha and amounted to 5.2% (89.3m ha) of the country’s land or 67.3% of land in private ownership. A decrease in the area of land in shared ownership is regarded as positive factor as land plots in shared ownership by virtue of incompleteness of that title are used inefficiently. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, land market |
| JEL: | G21 K11 L74 L85 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-245&r=cse |
| By: | Huse, Cristian; Koptyug, Nikita |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how consumers react to the financial distress of durable goods manufacturers by looking at the Swedish new car market. We employ a difference-in-differences matching methodology whereby we compare sales of carmaker Saab with those of a carefully constructed control group of substitute products. To account for possible substitution between products in the treatment and control groups, we propose and apply bounds to our difference-in-differences matching estimator. We then refine the bounds and provide conditions under which they depend only on the products’ own- and cross-price elasticities. We find that even accounting for potential substitution, there was a significant decrease in the sales of Saab following its filing for administration. These findings are robust to a number of robustness checks and alternative hypotheses. |
| Keywords: | Administration, Automobiles, Bankruptcy effects, Brand loyalty, Bounds, Consumer reaction, Consumer response, Difference-in-differences, Durable goods, Financial distress, Treatment effects. |
| JEL: | C21 D12 D22 G32 G33 L62 |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72796&r=cse |
| By: | Sevrin Waights |
| Abstract: | I investigate the welfare effect of conservation areas that preserve historic districts by regulating development. Such regulation may improve quality of life but does so by reducing housing productivity - the efficiency with which inputs (land and non-land) are converted into housing services. Using a unique panel dataset for English cities and an instrumental variable approach, I find that cities with more conservation areas have higher house prices for given land values and building costs (lower housing productivity) and higher house prices for given wages (higher quality of life). The overall welfare impact is found to be negative. |
| Keywords: | housing, planning, regulation, historic preservation, construction, land |
| JEL: | H89 L51 L74 D62 R21 R31 R38 R52 R58 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:sercdp:0202&r=cse |
| By: | Lyu, Wanning; Yuan Li; Dabo Guan; Hongyan Zhao; Qiang Zhang; Zhu Liu |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:428386&r=cse |
| By: | Magali Aubert (UMR MOISA - Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - INRA Montpellier - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] - CIHEAM - Centre International des Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes) |
| Abstract: | A Short Food Supply Chain is a marketing channel whose developments answers the emerging demand of both public policy and consumers’ requirement mainly in terms of quality. Based on the exhaustive census of all French farms in 2010, the aim of the article is to understand what are the individual and structural determinants of selling through a short food supply chain for producers: are there some factors leading to adopt such marketing channel? To answer this question, the resource-based view is mobilized. This theory highlights the relationship between the diversification of marketing channels and the individual characteristics of farmers and the structural characteristics of their farm. Since the choice observed is a dichotomous one, a logit model is implemented to identify determinants of short food supply chain adoption. This analysis lets underline differences observed between farmers who never sell though a short supply chain from the others in terms of both individual and structural specificities. Econometric results highlight that selling through this marketing channel is a commercial strategy implemented by younger and more educated farmers. Moreover, these farmers are installed on smaller farms. Even smaller, the implementation of a short food supply chain requires relatively more workforce. As a matter of fact, implementing such marketing channel translates into a need of workforce that is higher than for others farms and more precisely permanent workforce. |
| Keywords: | short food supply chain,2010 agricultural census,adoption,resource-based view |
| Date: | 2015–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01296422&r=cse |
| By: | Antoni Zabalza |
| Abstract: | Este artículo propone una reforma del sistema de financiación autonómica que resuelve los problemas de equidad que hoy presenta el modelo vigente y a la vez consigue un mayor nivel de responsabilidad fiscal por parte de las comunidades autónomas. El modelo propuesto se basa en el principio de equidad, según el cual para una política tributaria igual a la de referencia, las comunidades deberían tener los mismos recursos por unidad de necesidad. Tres elementos significativos de la propuesta son: En primer lugar, la introducción de la Compensación Transitoria de Adaptación (CTA), para permitir una aproximación gradual al resultado final de la reforma. En segundo lugar, un mecanismo de incentivación de la recaudación del IRPF, como refuerzo al incentivo ya hoy existente sobre la totalidad de la recaudación tributaria. Y en tercer lugar, una nueva regla de actualización del sistema que mantiene la equidad horizontal a lo largo del tiempo y aísla los recursos puestos a disposición de las comunidades de los avatares del ciclo económico. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdapop:2016-15&r=cse |
| By: | Dalton, Patricio (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Gonzalez Jimenez, Victor (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Noussair, Charles (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | We study whether poverty can induce affective states that decrease productivity. In a controlled laboratory setting, we find that subjects randomly assigned to a treatment, in which they view a video featuring individuals that live in extreme poverty, exhibit lower subsequent productivity compared to subjects assigned to a control treatment. Questionnaire responses, as well as facial recognition software, provide quantitative measures of the affective state evoked by the two treatments. Subjects exposed to images of poverty experience a more negative affective state than those in the control treatment. Further analyses show that individuals in a more positive emotional state exhibit less of a treatment effect. Also, those who exhibit greater attentiveness upon viewing the poverty video are less productive. The results are consistent with the notion that exposure to poverty can induce a psychological state in individuals that adversely affects productivity. |
| Keywords: | poverty; productivity; mood; emotions; limited attention; experiments |
| JEL: | D03 J24 C91 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:fcd7ed5d-22ed-4142-8143-b7533b40044e&r=cse |
| By: | Ana Maria Santacreu (Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis and); Fernando Leibovici (York University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role of trade openness for the design of monetary policy. We extend a standard small open economy model of monetary policy to capture cyclical fluctuations of international trade flows, and parameterize it to match key features of the data. We find that accounting for trade fluctuations matters for monetary policy: when the monetary authority follows a Taylor rule, inflation and the output gap are more volatile. Moreover, we find that the volatility of these variables is significantly higher when the central bank follows the optimal policy based on a model that cannot account for international trade fluctuations. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:367&r=cse |
| By: | Razvan GRECU (Student, Masters Financial Management, Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | This article addresses a whole evolution of the European integration - deepening, broadening, reforming, relations with third parties - precisely from this perspective of the efforts to obtain more important positions in the global competition. Used after the 1950s, the term globalization is present in all major languages of the world, be it the "globalization" for the English speakers, "mondialisation" for the French speakers, "globalizzazione" for the Italian speakers, "Globlisierung" for the German speakers or "Quan Quai Hua" for the Chinese speakers. The global attribute has a common use in phrases like "global market", "global institutions", "global communications". The widespread use of the term, both in everyday language and in the academic world, is produced since about the 1970s. However, the emergence of the industrial capitalism also marks the presence in the intellectual discourses of the references to a series of events similar to those that today retain the attention in the globalization context: the reduction of time and space as a result of the evolution and the development of transportation and communication, which substantially increases the possibilities of human interaction. It is, however, difficult to trace the border between cause and effect in terms of the globalization process. The world economies evolutions in regards to the trade, production, finances, led on one hand to the global nature of the economy and, on the other hand have influenced and boosted each other. |
| Keywords: | globalization, regionalization |
| JEL: | F60 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eub:wpaper:2016-09&r=cse |
| By: | Singh, Prakarsh (Amherst College) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence for informational spillovers within urban slums in Chandigarh, India. I identify three groups, a treatment group, a neighboring spillover group, and a non-adjacent pure control group. Mothers of children (aged 3-6 years) enrolled in government day-care centers are given recipe books in the treatment group to reduce malnutrition in their children. Spillovers to neighboring (untreated) mothers can be through social learning or imitation. Results from a difference-in-differences analysis show that nutritional knowledge measured through a quiz increases among neighboring untreated mothers relative to a control group. Neighboring mothers exhibit learning spillovers, changes in dietary behavior and a reduction in food expenditure regardless of their level of literacy. Spillovers not only raise the cost effectiveness of health information programs but are important to consider when designing an experiment as causal effects of treatments can be attenuated if the spillover group is used as a control group. |
| Keywords: | spillovers, malnutrition, India |
| JEL: | D62 D83 I15 I18 I38 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10085&r=cse |
| By: | Pieter Gautier (VU University Amsterdam); Guido Menzio (University of Pennsylvania); Bjoern Bruegemann (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | The paper revisits the problem of wage bargaining between a firm and multiple workers. We show that the Subgame Perfect Equilibrium of the extensive-form game proposed by Stole and Zwiebel (1996a) does not imply a profile of wages and profits that coincides with the Shapley values as claimed in their classic paper. We propose an alternative extensive-form bargaining game, the Rolodex Game, that follows a simple and realistic protocol and that, under some mild restrictions, admits a unique Subgame Perfect Equilibrium generating a profile of wages and profits that are equal to the Shapley values. The vast applied literature that refers to the Stole and Zwiebel game to give a game-theoretic foundation to the use of the Shapley values as the outcome of the bargain between a firm and multiple workers should instead refer to the Rolodex game. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:389&r=cse |
| By: | Jungjun Choi (School of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul); In Choi (School of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies maximum likelihood estimation of autoregressive models of order 1 with a near unit root and Cauchy errors. Autoregressive models with an intercept and with an intercept and a linear time trend are also considered. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the autoregressive coeffcient is n^(3/2)-consistent with n denoting the sample size and has a mixture-normal dis- tribution in the limit. The MLE for the scale parameter of Cauchy distribution is n^(1/2)-consistent and its limiting distribution is normal. The MLEs of the intercept and the linear time trend are n^(1/2)- and n^(3/2)-consistent, respectively. It is also shown that the t-statistic for a unit root based on the MLE has a standard normal distribution in the limit. In addition, finite sample properties of the MLE are compared with those of the least square estimator (LSE). It is found that the MLE is more effcient than the LSE when the errors have a Cauchy distribution or a distribution which is a mixture of Cauchy and normal distributions. It is also shown that empirical power of the MLE-based t-test for a unit root is much higher than that of the Dickey-Fuller t-test. |
| Keywords: | autoregressive model, near unit root, Cauchy distribution, maxi- mum likelihood estimator, infi?nite variance |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgo:wpaper:1612&r=cse |
| By: | Holden, Tom D. |
| Abstract: | We present the first necessary and sufficient conditions for there to be a unique perfect-foresight solution to an otherwise linear dynamic model with occasionally binding constraints, given a fixed terminal condition. We derive further conditions on the existence of a solution in such models. These results give determinacy conditions for models with occasionally binding constraints, much as Blanchard and Kahn (1980) did for linear models. In an application, we show that widely used New Keynesian models with endogenous states possess multiple perfect foresight equilibrium paths when there is a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, even when agents believe that the central bank will eventually attain its long-run, positive inflation target. This illustrates that a credible long-run inflation target does not render the Taylor principle sufficient for determinacy in the presence of the zero lower bound. However, we show that price level targeting does restore determinacy in these situations. |
| Keywords: | occasionally binding constraints,zero lower bound,existence,uniqueness,price targeting,Taylor principle,linear complementarity problem |
| JEL: | C62 E3 E4 E5 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:144570&r=cse |
| By: | Corinne Luu |
| Abstract: | Canada’s productivity performance has lagged that of many other OECD countries, despite some improvement in recent years. One measure to enhance overall efficiency would be to strengthen competition on the domestic market to drive future multi-factor productivity improvements. The potential gains are large: about a half a percent per year over a fairly long horizon. This paper focuses on increasing competition in network sectors, including energy, telecommunication services and broadcasting, and transportation, which are key inputs to production in the broader economy. Improving regulatory conditions, efficiency and/or cost competitiveness could yield more productive outcomes in these sectors, as well as in downstream industries. Competition could also be increased by lowering barriers to interprovincial trade and the movement of labour, which act to fragment Canada’s already small domestic market. To this end, reforms of the Agreement on Internal Trade and measures to reduce sectoral barriers to trade are also discussed. This Working Paper relates to the 2016 OECD Economic Survey of Canada (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-canada.htm) Concurrence dans les industries de réseau et renforcement du marché intérieur au Canada La productivité canadienne est inférieure à celle de nombreux pays de l’OCDE malgré quelques progrès ces dernières années. Il serait possible d’accroître l’efficience globale en renforçant la concurrence sur le marché intérieur afin de favoriser les futurs gains de productivité globale. Ces gains sont importants, de l’ordre d’un demi pour cent par an sur une période plutôt longue. Ce document porte principalement sur l’intensification de la concurrence dans les industries de réseau, comme l’énergie, les télécommunications, la diffusion audiovisuelle et les transports, qui jouent un rôle essentiel dans le processus de production de l’ensemble de l’économie. L’amélioration de la réglementation, l’augmentation de l’efficience et/ou le renforcement de la compétitivité-coût pourraient accroître la productivité dans ces secteurs, ainsi que dans les secteurs d’aval. La concurrence pourrait également être intensifiée par la réduction des obstacles aux échanges entre provinces et à la mobilité de la main-d’oeuvre, qui fragmentent un marché intérieur déjà petit. Ce document examine donc également les réformes possibles de l’Accord sur le commerce intérieur et les mesures visant à réduire les obstacles sectoriels aux échanges. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE du Canada 2016 (www.oecd.org/fr/eco/etudes/etude-econom ique-canada.htm) |
| Keywords: | productivity, network industries, competition, regulation, integration, productivité, concurrence, intégration, industries de réseaux, réglementation |
| JEL: | J44 L1 L3 L5 L66 L9 O43 Q18 |
| Date: | 2016–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1322-en&r=cse |
| By: | Federico Esposito (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Firms face considerable uncertainty about consumers' demand. In presence of incomplete financial markets, entrepreneurs may not be able to insure against unexpected demand fluctuations. The key insight of my paper is that firms can hedge demand risk through geographical diversification. I first develop a general equilibrium trade model characterized by stochastic demand and risk-averse entrepreneurs, who exploit the imperfect correlation of demand across countries to lower the variance of their total sales. I show that: i) a firm's exporting decision does not obey a hierarchical structure as in standard models with fixed costs, because it depends on the global diversification strategy of the firm, and ii) the intensity of trade flows to a market are affected by its risk-return profile. To quantify the risk diversification benefits of international trade I calibrate the model with the Method of Moments, using Portuguese firm-level data. One of the counterfactual exercises reveals that the welfare gains from trade can be significantly higher than the gains predicted by models neglecting firm level risk. After a trade liberalization, risk-averse firms boost exports to countries offering better diversification benefits. Hence, in these markets competition among firms is stronger, lowering the price level more and raising welfare gains. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:302&r=cse |
| By: | Aleksandra Masłowska-Jokinen; Anna Matysek-Jędrych |
| Abstract: | The main objective of the study is to identify both similarities and differences among seemingly homogenous countries (OECD) in respect to their safety net de-sign and a supervisory role played by central banks. This goal is achieved using an extensive data set, describing financial supervisory institutions between 2000-2013, hence including recent modifications in response to global financial crisis. The data show the existence of similar supervisory standards in both crisis- and non-crisis countries. Whether it is a presence of single supervisory authority, allocation of macroprudential responsibilities in a country, or implementing capital adequacy re-quirements, while working well in certain countries, did not make others immune to a crisis. At the same time, data show that non-crisis countries implemented stricter rules than those in crisis-countries, and that this process started way before the burst of the Global Financial Crisis. Often, these more rigorous rules were observed in countries with past crisis experience, indicating an importance of learning mecha-nism. With empirical analysis, we prove that certain basic safety net elements (oblig-atory reserve requirements or sufficient coverage of deposit insurance scheme), as well as high level of central bank financial transparency are negatively correlated with the speed of credit growth. Based on our results and discussion on previous empirical analyses we give recommendations for institutions involved in the financial safety net. |
| Keywords: | central bank, financial regulation, financial supervision, monetary pol-icy, financial crisis, macroprudential policy, safety net |
| JEL: | E52 E58 G01 G18 G21 H12 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:240&r=cse |
| By: | Badawi, Adam B.; Chen, Daniel L. |
| Abstract: | We collect data on the record of every action in over one thousand cases involving public companies from 2004 to 2011 in the Delaware Court of Chancery, which is the leading court for corporate law disputes in the United States. We use these data to estimate how markets respond to Delaware litigation events and characteristics such as case initiations, procedural motions, case quality, and judge identity. We find that negative abnormal returns are associated with the filing of derivative and contract cases, but we observe little effect associated with the filing of the average merger challenge. When we include measures of case quality, we see that higher quality cases increase the expected impact of derivative and contract litigation on firm value. We also develop evidence that tactics associated with multijurisdictional litigation are associated with a weakened impact of litigation on firm value. This evidence is consistent with the belief that the presence of litigation in another jurisdiction allows defense lawyers to bid down competing groups of plaintiffs’ lawyers during settlement negotiations. Finally, we show that abnormal returns are not associated with information on judicial assignment at the time of case filing, nor are they associated with judge identity at case resolution. These results suggest that the judicial impact on shareholder wealth at the time of judicial assignment and the time of case termination is too small to be statistically detected. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:iastwp:30642&r=cse |
| By: | Satoshi Nakano; Kazuhiko Nishimura |
| Abstract: | A favorable population schedule for the entire potential human family is sought, under the overlapping generations framework, by treating population as a control variable in a dynamic social welfare maximization context. The Benthamite and Rawlsian social welfare functions are examined, with zero future discounting, while infinity in the maximand is circumvented by introducing the depletion of energy resources and its postponement through technological innovations. The model is formulated as a free-horizon dynamic planning problem, solved via a non-linear optimizer. Under exploratory scenarios, we visualize the potential trade-offs between the two welfare criteria. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1608.01535&r=cse |
| By: | Enrique A. López-Enciso (Banco de la República de Colombia); Hernando Vargas-Herrera (Banco de la República de Colombia); Norberto Rodríguez-Niño (Banco de la República de Colombia) |
| Abstract: | Con el fin de la banda cambiaria en Colombia en 1999, la estrategia de inflación objetivo (IO) se convirtió en el marco de política monetaria implementado por la Junta Directiva del Banco de la República, el cual aún sigue vigente. Este trabajo presenta un recuento histórico del proceso de adopción de esa estrategia en Colombia, así como las mejoras a nivel institucional y técnico que fueron necesarias para adoptarla, además se explica el desempeño que éste régimen de política monetaria tuvo frente a la crisis financiera del 2008. También se hace una reflexión sobre su utilización en el mundo y se sugiere, mediante modelos ANOVA y ARIMAX, que la IO ha sido efectiva reduciendo la inflación. Classification JEL: E31, E52, E58 |
| Keywords: | Inflación objetivo, banda cambiaria, crisis financiera |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:952&r=cse |
| By: | Paulo César Morceiro |
| Abstract: | Após duas décadas e meia de baixo crescimento, o Brasil voltou a crescer de modo continuado e acima da economia mundial durante a década de 2004-2013. Esse crescimento foi puxado pela demanda doméstica e beneficiou diversos setores da economia, principalmente da indústria de transformação. Observou-se significativo crescimento da produção e do emprego manufatureiros no período, com aumento da participação das indústrias de alta e média-alta intensidade tecnológica. Entretanto, parcela substantiva do crescimento da demanda vazou para o exterior na forma de importações em vários setores industriais, com maior intensidade nos setores de alta e média-alta tecnologia. No período, a manufatura brasileira perdeu bastante competitividade, apresentou crescimento negativo da produtividade do trabalho e registrou déficits comerciais na maioria dos setores, inclusive naqueles tradicionalmente superavitários. O artigo também mostra que setores importantes do ponto de vista tecnológico estão caminhando da transformação para a simples montagem e alguns até para a maquila, além de indicar que a indústria é integrada às cadeias globais de valor pelo lado das importações. |
| Keywords: | sectoral demand leakages; labor productivity; manufacturing industry; industrial competitiveness; sectoral analysis |
| JEL: | L6 O14 O40 |
| Date: | 2016–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2016wpecon12&r=cse |
| By: | Maixe-Altes, J. Carles; Mourelle, Estefanía |
| Abstract: | This work investigates the relationships between the retail payment system, monetary aggregates and economic activity in Spain. This approach is taken from a new perspective: that of the transformations that have been favored by ICT in the payment system. The methodology used is based on cointegration analysis and the estimation of error correction models. Likewise, an indicator of cashless transactions is proposed in order to illustrate whether a particular society can be classified as “cashless”. We use the Johansen procedure to unveil long-run relationships that are integrated in the real sector, the monetary system and the value of cashless transactions. We prove the relevant (and direct) impact of changes in the monetary system and national income on the value of cashless transactions. Using error correction models, we observe that the most important short-run relationships in terms of the value of cashless transactions are those related to the real sector of the economy, while with regard to monetary variables, the relevance is focused on the more liquid sectors. The empirical results evidence the intensive progress of the cashless society in Spain, where the banking sector, the regulatory changes and ICT development have played a key role. |
| Keywords: | Cashless payments, money supply, ICT |
| JEL: | E42 E51 G20 N2 |
| Date: | 2016–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72590&r=cse |
| By: | Olga Gorelova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andrey Lovakov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The literature on the consequences of academic inbreeding shows ambiguous results: some papers show that inbreeding positively influences research productivity, measured in the quantity and quality of publications, while others show the opposite effect. There are contradictory results both in studies of different countries and within countries. Such a variety of results makes it impossible to transfer the findings from one academic system to another, and in Russia this problem has been under explored. This paper focuses on the relationship between inbreeding and publication activity among Russian faculty members. The results, using Russian data from the Changing Academic Profession survey, showed no substantial effect of academic inbreeding on research productivity. Inbred and non-inbred faculty members do not differ substantially in terms of the probability of having publications, or how many, although for inbreds such probability is slightly higher. These results are robust for different operationalizations of inbreeding and measures of publication activity. However the absence of significant differences in the number of publications may not mean the absence of a difference in their quality. The possible explanations and limitations of the standard measures of research productivity are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Academic profession, Academic inbreeding, Research productivity, Faculty members, Russian higher education, Changing Academic Profession |
| JEL: | I23 I28 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:32edu2016&r=cse |
| By: | Henderson, Daniel J. (University of Alabama); Simar, Léopold (Université catholique de Louvain); Wang, Le (University of Alabama) |
| Abstract: | We examine the educational production function and efficiency of public school districts in Illinois. Using nonparametric kernel methods, we find that most traditional schooling inputs are irrelevant in determining test scores (even in a very general setting). Property tax caps are the only relevant factor that is related to districts' financial constraints and have predominantly negative associations with test scores. Therefore, insufficient resources may be partially responsible for the lack of growth in test scores. For most other relevant inputs, we find substantial heterogeneity in the returns, which helps reconcile some of the puzzling results in the literature. We further find that there exist inefficiencies in school districts. Moreover, the level of test scores, commonly used as a measure of school effectiveness, (while related) differs substantially from our efficiency scores, and standard parametric approaches drastically underestimate school efficiency. We discuss the policy implications of our results. |
| Keywords: | educational production function, irrelevant inputs, nonparametric kernel, panel data, property tax caps, school inputs, stochastic frontier analysis, student achievement, technical efficiency |
| JEL: | C14 C44 I21 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10076&r=cse |
| By: | Firdaus Hafidz (Academic Unit of Health Economics, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds); Tim Ensor (Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds); Sandy Tubeuf (Academic Unit of Health Economics, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds) |
| Abstract: | Total health care costs have dramatically increased in Indonesia and health facilities consume the largest share of health resources. This study aims to provide a better understanding of the characteristics of the best performing health facilities and identify potential drivers of service efficiency. We employ four cross-sectional national Indonesian datasets for 2011 and analysed 200 hospitals and 95 health centres. We first apply the Pabón Lasso Model to assess the relative performance of health facilities in terms of bed occupancy rate and the number of admission per bed; the model groups health facilities into four sectors representing different levels of productivity. We then use a step-down costing method to estimate the cost per outpatient visit, inpatient, and bed-days in hospitals and health centres. We also apply bivariate analyses, including difference and correlation tests to identify the internal and external factors affecting health facility performance. Forty percent of hospitals and 33 percent of health centres were located in the high performing sector of the Pabón Lasso model. A wide variation in unit costs across health facilities present a basis for benchmarking and identifying relatively efficient units. The major components of cost were human resources and materials such as pharmaceuticals and medical supplies. Combining the unit cost analysis and Pabón Lasso model, we find that health facility performance is likely affected by both internal (size and capacity, financing, ownership, accreditation status, and staff availability) and external factors (economic status, market competition, population education level, location, and insurance coverage). Our study demonstrates that it is feasible to identify the best performing health facilities and provide information about how to improve efficiency using simplistic methods. |
| Keywords: | Efficiency, performance, health facilities, costing study, Pabón Lasso model |
| JEL: | I10 D24 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lee:wpaper:1604&r=cse |
| By: | Michael Ehrmann; Jonathan Talmi |
| Abstract: | Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update the earlier text with only small changes. This way, it is straightforward to compare statements and see how the central bank’s thinking has evolved. This paper studies to what extent such similarity in central bank statements matters for the reception of their content in financial markets. Using the case of the Bank of Canada (the G7 central bank that had to rely the least on unconventional monetary policy following the global financial crisis and has therefore broadly continued standard monetary policy communications), the paper shows that press releases with larger differences in wording lead to higher volatility in financial markets, suggesting that their content is more difficult to absorb. At the same time, while press releases that are similar to the previous one generate less market volatility, once their wording is updated, volatility increases substantially. |
| Keywords: | Central bank research, Financial markets, Interest rates |
| JEL: | E43 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-37&r=cse |
| By: | Mohamed Arouri (Centre Clermontois de Recherche en Gestion et Management (CRCGM)); Adel Ben Youssef (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS); Cuong Nguyen (National Economic University, Hanoi, Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether there are racial and ethnic disparities in children's education in Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam. We find that in all four countries, and especially Vietnam, children from small ethnic groups have lower education attainment and cognitive ability. The gap in educational attainment and cognitive ability among ethnic children is larger than the gap in school enrolment, and the gap tends to be wider for older children. Using the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, we find that the main contribution to the gap in education between children from small ethnic groups and children from large ethnic groups in India, Peru and Vietnam is the difference in endowments (i.e., characteristics of children and their families) rather than a in the coefficients of endowments. However, in Ethiopia, the difference in the coefficients contributes more than the difference in endowments to the gap in education. Child health, parental education, household expenditure and an urban environment are important variables for explaining the gap in education between children from small and large ethnic groups. |
| Keywords: | Children's education, racial disparities, low-income countries |
| JEL: | J13 J15 I21 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2016-25&r=cse |
| By: | Belot, Michèle (University of Edinburgh); Kircher, Philipp (University of Edinburgh); Muller, Paul (University of Gothenburg) |
| Abstract: | We develop and evaluate experimentally a novel tool that redesigns the job search process by providing tailored advice at low cost. We invited job seekers to our computer facilities for 12 consecutive weekly sessions to search for real jobs on our web interface. For half, instead of relying on their own search criteria, we use readily available labor market data to display relevant alternative occupations and associated jobs. This significantly broadens the set of jobs they consider and significantly increases their job interviews. Effects are strongest for participants who otherwise search narrowly and have been unemployed for a few months. |
| Keywords: | online job search, occupational broadness, search design |
| JEL: | D83 J62 C93 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10068&r=cse |
| By: | Juan Pablo Nicolini (Minneapolis Fed) |
| Abstract: | We study a model with heterogeneous producers that face collateral and cash in advance constraints. A tightening of the collateral constraint results in a credit-crunch generated recession that reproduces several features of the financial crisis that unraveled in 2007. The model can suitable be used to study the effects on the main macroeconomic variables and of alternative policies following the credit crunch. The policy implications are in sharp contrast with the prevalent view in most Central Banks, based on the New Keynesian explanation of the liquidity trap. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:335&r=cse |
| By: | Lans, Cheryl |
| Abstract: | This review paper discusses the program called Worldwide Opportunities on Organic Farms (WWOOF), in North America, as an example of a subset of the care economy in which volunteers contribute to farm care. Human care is partly direct (some childcare, kitchen duties and other housework), but mostly indirect, in that farm families get time off. This review expands on previous work that considered farms in Ontario, Canada as spaces of care and farmwomen as the carers. It critiques other research that claims WWOOFers do not replace local labor and that WWOOF represents an idealistic and ethical space potentially corrupted by tourists. |
| Keywords: | WWOOF; Organic farms; Volunteers; Caring economy |
| JEL: | Q12 |
| Date: | 2016–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72713&r=cse |
| By: | Geloso, Vincent; Kufenko, Vadim; Prettner, Klaus |
| Abstract: | We examine the role of demographic change for regional convergence in living standards in Canada. Due to economies of scale within a family, decreasing household size has an impact on convergence in living standards, while per capita income convergence remains unaffected. We find that, by relying on per capita income, the dispersion of living standards between Canadian regions is overestimated prior to the 1990s and underestimated thereafter. As a consequence, relying on income per capita results in overestimating the speed of convergence in living standards. |
| Keywords: | regional convergence,living standards,demographic change,household size |
| JEL: | O47 J12 N12 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohpro:492016&r=cse |
| By: | Lorenzo CAMPONOVO (University of St. Gallen); Olivier SCAILLET (University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute); Fabio TROJANI (University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper contains comments on Nonparametric Tail Risk, Stock Returns and the Macroeconomy. |
| Keywords: | Tail Risk, Risk Factor, Risk-Neutral Probability, Prediction of Market Returns, Economic Predictability |
| JEL: | G12 G13 G17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1641&r=cse |
| By: | Dean Baker |
| Abstract: | There has been considerable interest in financial transactions taxes (FTTs) in the United States and other wealthy countries in the years since the financial crisis. An FTT can be a way to both raise a large amount of revenue and also rein in the financial sector. This report examines the evidence on the potential for raising revenue through an FTT, its impact on the economy, and also the possibility of using the revenue to defray in particular the cost of higher education. This report was published by The Century Foundation's Bernard L. Schwartz Rediscovering Government Initiative. |
| JEL: | G G2 G28 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epo:papers:2016-11&r=cse |
| By: | David Cayla (Granem - Groupe de Recherche ANgevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Agrocampus Ouest - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage) |
| Abstract: | Paru en 2011 aux États-Unis, le livre de David Graeber a suscité de nombreux commentaires tant par son contenu que par la personnalité militante de son auteur. Mais ce livre est loin de n’être qu’un plaidoyer pour l’annulation des dettes. Sous son apparence accessible de « best seller » il s’agit en fait d’un livre très difficile dont le sujet est beaucoup plus ambitieux que son titre ne le laisse paraître. De fait, le livre s’apparente à une ambitieuse entreprise de démystification d’un certain nombre de « vérités » économiques sur la nature et l’origine de la monnaie, sur les liens entre marchés et États, sur le statut de l’économie comme science, et bien sûr, sur la nature et la signification anthropologique de la dette. Le piège du livre de Graeber est donc que la forme simple et faussement accessible du style tend à masquer aussi bien la complexité des concepts et des raisonnements dans les parties théoriques que les faiblesses de l’argumentation qui accompagnent les parties plus descriptives. |
| Keywords: | anthropologie,David Graeber,dette,Histoire,Michel Aglietta,monnaie,théorie de la régulation |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01312938&r=cse |
| By: | Morales, Alvaro (Amherst College); Singh, Prakarsh (Amherst College) |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether violence occurring outside the confines of a home can alter intra-household violence inter-generationally. This paper is the first to explore whether exposure to violence from an armed conflict affects the later use of physical punishment as a child discipline method. Our identification strategy relies on the spatial and temporal variation of the Peruvian civil conflict that occurred between 1980 and 2000. We find that a mother exposed to an additional one hundred violent conflict-related events in her district is 3.4-3.8 percentage points less likely to physically punish her children. This effect is equivalent in magnitude to an additional 10 years of education. We find suggestive evidence that the conflict could have increased parenting knowledge and support. Communities that experienced higher levels of conflict violence saw greater increases in social spending and had more health resources in the post-conflict period. Additionally, we find women's conflict exposure is associated with a higher likelihood of accessing these resources. |
| Keywords: | domestic violence, civil conflict, physical child abuse, Peru |
| JEL: | J13 D1 J16 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10093&r=cse |
| By: | Chen, Daniel L.; Horton, John |
| Abstract: | In some online labor markets, workers are paid by the task, choose what tasks to work on, and have little or no interaction with their (usually anonymous) buyer/employer. These markets look like true spot markets for tasks rather than markets for employment. Despite appearances, we find via a field experiment that workers act more like parties to an employment contract: workers quickly form wage reference points and react negatively to proposed wage cuts by quitting. However, they can be mollified with “reasonable” justifications for why wages are being cut, highlighting the importance of fairness considerations in their decision making. We find some evidence that “unreasonable” justifications for wage cuts reduce subsequent work quality. We also find that not explicitly presenting the worker with a decision about continuing to work eliminates “quits,” with no apparent reduction in work quality. One interpretation for this finding is that workers have a strong expectation that they are party to a quasi-employment relationship where terms are not changed, and the default behavior is to continue working. |
| Keywords: | Economics of IS; Electronic Commerce; Field Experiments; IT and new organizational form |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:iastwp:30638&r=cse |
| By: | Andrea Kunnert (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | Housing affordability problems are expected to increase for Austrian households because housing costs have been rising dynamically over the last years. Households who moved more recently are expected to be affected the most. Previous research has identified younger households as also being prone to housing affordability problems because they have relatively lower incomes. There is a strong correlation between the year of move-in and age – young households comprise a large share of households who moved recently. This paper applies the tailored ratio and residual income approach to Austrian households for 2014 to analyse housing affordability by age group and also by year of move-in. To identify whether age (lifecycle) or prevailing market conditions cause affordability problems, affordability measures are compared for age groups at different intervals of move-in. The results suggest that both effects are at work: young households who moved recently have the highest incidence of affordability problems compared to older households. For other age groups, affordability problems also mostly occur for households who moved recently. The price distortion between below-market rents due to long-term contracts and market rents becomes more pronounced. This adversely affects newcomers and dis-incentivises mobility of incumbents. |
| Keywords: | housing affordability, ratio approach, residual income approach, lifecycle, Austria |
| Date: | 2016–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2016:i:521&r=cse |
| By: | Jan Kuklinski; Panagiotis Papaioannou; Kevin Tyloo |
| Abstract: | We discuss the pricing methodology for Bonus Certificates and Barrier Reverse-Convertible Structured Products. Pricing for a European barrier condition is straightforward for products of both types and depends on an efficient interpolation of observed market option pricing. Pricing products We discuss the pricing methodology for Bonus Certificates and Barrier Reverse-Convertible Structured Products. Pricing for a European barrier condition is straightforward for products of both types and depends on an efficient interpolation of observed market option pricing. Pricing products with an American barrier condition requires stochastic modelling. We show that for typical market parameters, this stochastic pricing problem can be systematically reduced to evaluating only one fairly simple stochastic parameter being the asymmetry of hitting the barrier. Eventually, pricing Bonus Certificates and Barrier Reverse Convertibles with an American barrier condition, shows to be dependent on stochastic modelling only within a range of $\pm\frac{2}{3}$ of accuracy - e.g. within this accuracy limitation we can price these products without stochastic modelling. We show that the remaining price component is weakly dependent on the stochastic models. Combining these together, we prove to have established an almost model independent pricing procedure for Bonus Certificates and Barrier Reverse-Convertible Structured Products with American barrier conditions. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1608.00280&r=cse |
| By: | Benedix, Ulf |
| Abstract: | Vor dem Hintergrund des demografischen Wandels und sich abzeichnender partieller Fachkräfteengpässe bietet Aufstiegsmobilität durch Qualifizierung Vorteile für Unternehmen und Beschäftigte. Höherqualifizierung von Geringqualifizierten kann zur Deckung des Fachkräftebedarfs beitragen. Arbeitnehmer und Arbeitnehmerinnen können durch Höherqualifizierung ihre berufliche Position verbessern; für Geringqualifizierte kann Qualifizierung einen Weg aus prekärer Beschäftigung eröffnen. Ausbau und Nutzung dieser Chancen setzt vor allem eine entsprechend ausgerichtete betriebliche Personalpolitik voraus. Es wurde untersucht, welchen Stellenwert Höherqualifizierung und Aufstiegsmobilität in der Personalentwicklung von Unternehmen haben und welche betrieblichen und überbetrieblichen Qualifizierungsstrukturen bereits nutzbar bzw. auszubauen sind. Dabei wurden hemmende und förderliche Bedingungen identifiziert und Handlungsempfehlungen für die Betriebe und die Region entwickelt. Die Logistik bildet ein regional wichtiges Beschäftigungsfeld und wird weiterhin als Wachstumsbranche eingeschätzt. Darüber hinaus wird sie als Wirtschaftsbereich gehandelt, in dem niedrigschwellige Eintritte in Beschäftigung und in Qualifizierungsketten möglich erscheinen. [...] |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iawraw:15&r=cse |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | Good corporate governance practices reduce vulnerability to financial crises, reinforce property rights, reduce the cost of capital, and lead to greater capital market development—all sought by investors. In this fourth round of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Corporate Governance initiative of the Asian Development Bank and the ASEAN Capital Markets Forum, over 500 top publicly listed companies from six ASEAN countries were assessed as to rights of shareholders, equitable treatment of shareholders, role of stakeholders, disclosure and transparency, and responsibilities of the board. Corporate governance in ASEAN countries collectively continues to improve, with international best practices being incorporated into national corporate governance blueprints and strategies. |
| Keywords: | ASEAN, financial crises, capital market, shareholders, corporate governance |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rps157824&r=cse |
| By: | Agostino, Mariarosaria; Nifo, Annamaria; Trivieri, Francesco; Vecchione, Gaetano |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to contribute to the debate on the determinants of differentials in firms’ productivity. We test the hypothesis that macro factors, especially the quality of local institutions, play a role in explaining firm productivity in Italy. To this end, following Fӓre et al. (1994), we decompose the Malmquist index of total factor productivity (TFP) change for approximately 7,500 manufacturing small and medium-sized firms, and we proxy province-level institutional quality using the IQI index (Nifo and Vecchione, 2014). The results of our stimations suggest that better local institutions might help firms better combine inputs, approach the optimal size, and ultimately be more productive. |
| Keywords: | TFP, Malmquist index, Institutional quality, Italian manufacturing SMEs |
| JEL: | C31 C33 D24 L60 O43 O47 O50 R11 |
| Date: | 2016–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72759&r=cse |
| By: | Mathieu Cambou (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne); Damir Filipović (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | The replicating portfolio (RP) approach to the calculation of capital for life insurance portfolios is an industry standard. The RP is obtained from projecting the terminal loss of discounted asset liability cash flows on a set of factors generated by a family of financial instruments that can be efficiently simulated. We provide the mathematical foundations and a novel dynamic and path-dependent RP approach for real-world and risk-neutral sampling. We show that the RP approach yields asymptotically consistent capital estimators. We illustrate the tractability of the RP approach by two numerical examples. |
| Keywords: | asset-liability portfolio, chaos expansion, replicating portfolio, solvency capital |
| JEL: | C61 C63 D81 G22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1625&r=cse |
| By: | Praveen Kolli; Mykhaylo Shkolnikov |
| Abstract: | We consider systems of diffusion processes ("particles") interacting through their ranks (also referred to as "rank-based models" in the mathematical finance literature). We show that, as the number of particles becomes large, the process of fluctuations of the empirical cumulative distribution functions converges to the solution of a linear parabolic SPDE with additive noise. The coefficients in the limiting SPDE are determined by the hydrodynamic limit of the particle system which, in turn, can be described by the porous medium PDE. The result opens the door to a thorough investigation of large equity markets and investment therein. In the course of the proof we also derive quantitative propagation of chaos estimates for the particle system. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1608.00814&r=cse |
| By: | Rafael Barquín (Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Spain); Pedro Pérez (Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Spain); Basilio Sanz (Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Spain) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to identify variables that could explain Spanish urban literacy growth between 1860 and 1910. We have made use of census data and other public sources. One of the main obstacles is to find appropriate city definition criteria. We have addressed this issue by resorting to the relevant bibliography. A priori, expected key variables are the Church influence, whether or not the city is a provincial capital, the access to the railway system, the mining and industrial activity and, above all, the literacy programs undertaken by Liberal governments. Results of several econometric models - panel data based considering cross and time fixed effects - show firstly, that local idiosyncratic factors were sizeable. Secondly, in the literacy process the educational offer was more decisive than the personal economic incentives, especially among girls. And finally, that Church influence largely explains the literacy levels at the middle of 19th century, as well as its decline in the second half of that century. |
| Keywords: | Literacy, Schooling, Church, Panel Data Models |
| JEL: | I25 N33 C23 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:1615&r=cse |
| By: | Seah, Kelvin (National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how exposure to immigrant students affects the academic achievement of native students in the three largest immigrant-receiving countries – United States, Australia, and Canada. Using a large cross-country dataset, variation in the share of immigrant children between different grade levels within schools is exploited to identify the impact of immigrant peers. I find that exposure to immigrant children has dissimilar effects on native students' achievements across the three countries. While exposure has a positive impact on Australian natives, it has a negative impact on Canadian natives. Exposure has no effect on U.S. natives. More importantly, I find that institutional factors, such as the way in which countries organise their educational systems, have a crucial bearing on how immigrant students affect their peers. |
| Keywords: | academic achievement, immigrant children, peer effects, within-school estimation |
| JEL: | I21 J15 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10065&r=cse |
| By: | Klyachko Tatiana (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The following public’s common perception of higher education continues to be prevalent in Russia: the quality of higher education keeps deteriorating; higher education fails to meet the requirements of the labor market; higher education graduates do not work in jobs strictly or closely related to their degrees or major; there is an oversupply of students in the country; there is need to train specialists with secondary vocational education and blue collar workers that are in shortage. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, higher education, vocational education, job skills |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I25 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-248&r=cse |
| By: | Motegi, H.; Nishimura, Y.; Oikawa, M. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the reasons for differences in the effect of retirement on health estimated results in previous studies. We investigate these differences by focusing on the analysis methods used by these studies. Using various health indexes, numerous researchers have examined the effects of retirement on health. However, there are no unifed views on the impact of retirement on various health indexes. Consequently, we show that the choice of analysis method is one of the key factors in explaining why the estimated results of the effect of retirement on health differ. Moreover, we re-estimate the effect of retirement on health by using a fixed analysis method controlling for individual heterogeneity and endogeneity of the retirement behavior. We analyze the effect of retirement on health parameters, such as cognitive function, self-report of health, activities of daily living (ADL), depression, and body mass index in eight countries. We find that the effects of retirement on self-report of health, depression, and ADL are positive in many of these countries. |
| Keywords: | aging; health; retirement; global aging data; |
| JEL: | I00 I10 I12 I19 J26 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:16/13&r=cse |
| By: | Groll, Dominik; Monacelli, Tommaso |
| Abstract: | The desirability of flexible exchange rates is a central tenet in international macroeconomics. We show that, with forward-looking staggered pricing, this result crucially depends on the monetary authority's ability to commit. Under full commitment, flexible exchange rates generally dominate a monetary union (or fixed exchange rate) regime. Under discretion, this result is overturned: a monetary union dominates flexible exchange rates. By fixing the nominal exchange rate, a benevolent monetary authority finds it welfare improving to tradeoff flexibility in the adjustment of the terms of trade in order to improve on its ability to manage the private sector's expectations. Thus, inertia in the terms of trade (induced by a fixed exchange rate) is a cost under commitment, whereas it is a benefit under discretion, for it acts like a commitment device. |
| Keywords: | commitment; discretion; flexible exchange rates; monetary union; nominal rigidities.; welfare losses |
| JEL: | E52 F33 F41 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11416&r=cse |
| By: | Jayanti Rao; Kashinath G Metri; Amit Singh. |
| Abstract: | Constipation is most common GI problem which significantly affects health related quality of life, social functioning and compromises the ability to perform daily activities. Yoga is one of the alternative and complementary therapies known to have positive role in various GI related chronic problems. There is lack of evidences for role yoga in constipation. Thirty-seven participants suffering from chronic constipation, who attended one week of IAYT program consisting of asana (physical posture), pranayama, meditation, devotional sessions, diet modification and interactive sessions on philosophical concepts of yoga, at holistic health center S-VYASA, were enrolled in this study. The quality of life and the bowel habits were assessed before and after the intervention using Patient Assessment of Constipation- Quality of Life (PAC-QoL) questionnaire. There is a significant change in different domains of PAC-QoL such as reduction in the scores of physical discomfort (61.25%), psychological discomfort (59.21%), worries and concern (55.92%) and satisfaction (44%) were found after one week IAYT intervention. This pilot study indicated the potential role of IAYT role in management of chronic constipation. However further randomized control studies need to be performed in order to confirm the findings of present study Key words: Chronic constipation, PAC-QOL, IAYT |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-06-07&r=cse |
| By: | Samaniego, Roberto; Sun, Juliana |
| Abstract: | We explore the key mechanisms whereby uncertainty impacts the business cycle by exploring the interaction of uncertainty with growth in industries with different technologies of production. We find that uncertainty shocks are particularly detrimental to growth in industries with rapid capital depreciation or high investment adjustment costs. The findings are consistent with real options theory: uncertainty leads firms to delay investment in new projects, but high depreciation and fixed costs of investment make delay more costly. On the other hand, we do not find evidence of a significant role of financial markets in the generation nor propagation of uncertainty shocks. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty, technology, industry growth, depreciation, capital adjustment costs, investment lumpiness, real options. |
| JEL: | D81 E22 E32 |
| Date: | 2016–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72787&r=cse |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | This publication reviews recent developments in East Asian local currency bond markets along with the outlook, risks, and policy options. It covers the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus the People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; and the Republic of Korea. |
| Keywords: | bonds, local currency, foreign currency, bond yields, emerging East Asia, bonds outstanding, bond issuance, bond market, foreign investor holdings, People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong, China, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam, credit spreads, government bonds, corporate bonds, US Federal Reserve, G3 currency, interest rate, treasury bonds, treasury bills, central bank, CPI, PPI |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rps168158-2&r=cse |
| By: | Richard N. Langlois (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | A dominant view in the Coasean law-and-economics tradition is that the firm (including in its form as the corporation) is nothing but a nexus of contracts: the firm is entirely a matter of contract law, and the corporate entity, the legal fiction of corporate personhood, is nothing but a name for a bundle of contracts. This view has implication both for the theory of the firm and for the political economy of the corporation – for the question of the “rights” of corporate entities. By asserting that the corporation is nothing but a set of contractual arrangements, the nexus-of-contracts view implies that any rights possessed by contracting individuals “pass through” to the corporation itself. Unsurprisingly, the powerful phalanx of writers who wish to limit the rights of the corporation take square and largely exclusive aim at the nexus-of-contracts view, assuming that arguments against that view are necessarily arguments against all kinds of “bottom up” accounts of the corporate form. I will argue that critics of the nexus-of-contracts view are indeed right in one sense (though by no means in every sense). Yet, despite this, the fact that the corporation cannot be constructed solely out of voluntary contract narrowly understood does not destroy the argument that the corporation is ultimately “nothing but” a form of cooperation among rights-holding individuals. The corporation understood from the perspective of property rights is both an object of ownership and a form of ownership. Much of the confusion in the literature arises from a procrustean attempt to appraise the corporation in light of simplified and partial accounts of the rights involved. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2016-06&r=cse |
| By: | Smith, Jeffrey A. (University of Michigan); Sweetman, Arthur (McMaster University) |
| Abstract: | Estimation, inference and interpretation of the causal effects of programs and policies have all advanced dramatically over the past 25 years. We highlight three particularly important intellectual trends: an improved appreciation of the substantive importance of heterogeneous responses and of their methodological implications, a stronger focus on internal validity brought about by the "credibility revolution," and the scientific value that follows from grounding estimation and interpretation in economic theory. We discuss a menu of commonly employed partial equilibrium approaches to the identification of causal effects, emphasizing that the researcher's central intellectual contribution always consists of making an explicit case for a specific causal interpretation given the relevant economic theory, the data, the institutional context and the economic question of interest. We also touch on the importance of general equilibrium effects and full cost-benefit analyses. |
| Keywords: | causal effects, heterogeneous treatment effects, partial equilibrium identification |
| JEL: | C18 C21 C26 C50 C90 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10108&r=cse |
| By: | Einian, Majid; Ravasan, Farshad |
| Abstract: | Specialization models are important in providing a solid theoretical ground for gravity equation in bilateral trade. Some research papers try to improve specialization models by adding imperfect specialization to them, but we believe it is unnecessary complication. We provide a perfect specialization model based on the phenomenon that we call tradability, which overcomes the problems with simpler models. We provide empirical evidence using estimations on panel data of bilateral trade of 40 countries over 10 years that support the theoretical model. |
| Keywords: | bilateral trade, gravity equation, perfect specialization, tradability |
| JEL: | C23 E23 F11 F14 |
| Date: | 2016–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72734&r=cse |
| By: | Dinda, Soumyananda |
| Abstract: | Asia-Pacific region is much anxious about China’s slowdown, but the rest of the world has definite reason to worry about the consequences of the slowdown in China. During last few decades China is strongly integrated with Asia and also with the rest of the World. This paper investigates what the impact of China’s slowdown on the global economy is. If any crisis in China, how much does it affect developed and emerging or developing economies? Using modified Global VAR (GVAR) model, this paper focuses on these issues. This study considers more on international linking variables for the period of 2000-2012. Evidence based on GVAR analysis for six developed countries (G6: USA, UK, Germany, Japan, Canada and Australia) and BRICS (G4: Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa) show that the impact of China’s slowdown is more on emerging BRICS nations than that of developed economies. Impact of China’s GDP growth shock on the rest of emerging Asia is more since it has a strong production network in East and South East Asia. So, China’s slowdown certainly affects Asia more than western developed economies. |
| Keywords: | Panel data, GVAR, China’s economic slowdown, Global linking variable, GDP shock, BRICS, Developing Country, Developed Economy |
| JEL: | C32 C33 C54 F1 F6 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72472&r=cse |
| By: | Goedele Van den Broeck; Johan Swinnen; Miet Maertens |
| Abstract: | This paper is the first to present panel data evidence on the longer-term impact of expansion of global value chains and large-scale export-oriented farms in developing countries. Using panel data from two survey rounds covering a seven-year period and fixed effects regression, we estimate the longer-term income effects of wage employment on large-scale farms in the rapidly expanding horticultural export sector in Senegal. In addition to estimating average income effects, we estimate heterogeneous income effects using fixed effects quantile regression. We find that poverty and inequality reduced much faster in the research area than elsewhere in Senegal. Employment in the horticultural export sector significantly increases household income and the income effect is strongest for the poorest households. Expansion of the horticultural export sector in Senegal has been particularly pro-poor through creating employment that is accessible and creates substantial income gains for the poorest half of the rural population. These pro-poor employment effects contrast with insights in the literature on increased inequality from rural wage employment. |
| Keywords: | globalisation, hogh-value supply chains, rural wage employment, quantile regression, panel data, long-term effects |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:546809&r=cse |
| By: | Luis Garicano; Claire Lelargez; John Van Reenen |
| Abstract: | We show how size-contingent laws can be used to identify the equilibrium and welfare effects of labor regulation. Our framework incorporates such regulations into the Lucas (1978) model and applies it to France where many labor laws start to bind on firms with 50 or more employees. Using population data on firms between 1995 and 2007, we structurally estimate the key parameters of our model to construct counterfactual size, productivity and welfare distributions. We find that the cost of these regulations is equivalent to that of a 2.3% variable tax on labor. In our baseline case with French levels of partial real wage inflexibility welfare costs of the regulations are 3.4% of GDP (falling to 1.3% if real wages were perfectly flexible downwards). The main losers from the regulation are workers - and to a lesser extent, large firms - and the main winners are small firms. |
| Keywords: | Firm size; productivity; labor regulation; power law |
| JEL: | J1 N0 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:66765&r=cse |
| By: | Lubberink, Martien; Renders, Annelies |
| Abstract: | Leading up to the implementation of Basel III, European banks repurchased below-par debt securities. Banks are subjected to a prudential filter that excludes unrealized gains on liabilities from changes in own credit standing from the calculation of capital ratios. By repurchasing securities, unrealized gains become realized and increase Core Tier 1 capital. We show that poorly capitalized banks repurchased securities and lost about e9.1bn in premiums to compensate debt holders. Banks also repurchased the most loss-absorbing securities, for which they paid the highest premiums. These premiums increase with leverage and in times of stress. Hence debt repurchases are a cause for prudential concern. |
| Keywords: | Banking, repurchases, subordinated debt. |
| JEL: | E58 G21 G28 G32 G35 M41 |
| Date: | 2016–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72814&r=cse |
| By: | Sen Gupta, Abhijit; More, Vishal; Gupta, Kanupriya |
| Abstract: | Over the last two decades India has witnessed a significant rise in growth rate compared to historical levels. In this study, we investigate the pattern and nature of growth, and its implication for poverty reduction in India. In particular, we focus on the extent to which, structural change defined as changes in the composition of the economy in terms of key sectors, their employment and productivity, has an impact on poverty reduction. The paper is first of its kind in focusing on these issue at the sub-state level, which is important given the large size of Indian states that mask a great deal of heterogeneity. Moreover, the paper focuses on alternate definitions of structural change, including for the first differentiating between productivity increases in India arising from workers moving into above average productivity level sectors from workers moving to sectors that are experiencing positive productivity growth. The paper finds that while improving sectoral productivity is important for poverty reduction, there is a strong link between shift of workers into sectors witnessing an increase in poverty and poverty reduction. Thus poverty reduction requires generating jobs in dynamic sectors that are witnessing productivity growth as well as imparting adequate skills to the workforce to make them employable in these sectors. |
| Keywords: | Structural change, poverty reduction, reallocation effect and labour productivity |
| JEL: | I32 J24 J62 R11 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72740&r=cse |
| By: | Joan Costa-Font; Sergi Jiménez-Martín; Cristina Villaplana |
| Abstract: | The expansion of long-term care (LTC) coverage may improve health system efficiency by reducing hospitalisations (bed-blocking), and pave the way for the implementation of health and social care coordination plans. We draw upon the quasi- experimental evidence from the main expansion of long term care increase subsidisation in Spain in 2007 to examine the causal effect of the expansion of LTC subsidisation and coordination on hospitalisations (both on the internal and external margin) and the hospital length of stay. In addition, we examine the 2012 austerity budget cuts that reduced the subsidy. We find robust evidence of a reduction in hospitalisations and the length of stay after the expansion of LTC subsidisation. However, the reduction in hospitalisations is heterogeneous to the existence of health and social care coordination plans and type of subsidy. Overall, we estimate savings related to hospitalisations of up to 11% of total hospital costs. Consistently, subsidy reduction is found to attenuate bed-blocking gains. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2016-05&r=cse |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | Women in Nepal have long experienced poverty, social exclusion, and marginalization because of their gender, especially among ethnic minorities and low-caste groups. Between 2002 and 2013, the Asian Development Bank and the Government of Nepal developed and implemented the Gender Equality and Empowerment of Women Project to reduce poverty by empowering rural women and members of other disadvantaged groups through an integrated process of economic, social, legal, and political empowerment. This publication presents the case study of that project which contributed to Nepal’s drive to eradicate gender-based inequality. |
| Keywords: | social exclusion, women, Nepal, gender, gender equality, ethnic minorities, low-caste groups, disadvantaged groups |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt168075&r=cse |
| By: | Meenakshi Srivastava |
| Abstract: | In teaching B.Ed .trainees use teaching aids, like, charts, models – static & working, specimen, slides, because teachers are given training both in preparation and use of Audio-visual Aids. It is a known fact that majority of schools do not have appropriate teaching aids related to the school content. So teachers have no facility to use A – V Aids during teaching. The use of A – V Aids get further restricted due to unmotivated persons becoming teachers. Central Government realized the need of improving quality of education through the use of ICT. This helped in improving the quality of teaching in schools having no teacher to teach the subject, less competent teacher, schools having poor or no facility of teaching aids,The use of ICT in education lends itself to more student centered learning settings and often this creates some tensions for some teachers and students. But with the world moving rapidly into digital media and information, the role of ICT in education is becoming More and more important and this importance will continue to grow and develop in the 21st century. . To keep pace with the changing world, teachers must have current knowledge and skills of educational technology.. The growing use of ICT as an instructional medium is changing and will likely continue to change many of the strategies employed by both teachers and students in the learning process. This paper highlights-ICT–A Tool for quality teaching in B.Ed. Programme. The paper the population for the study consisted of all the200 B.Ed. Students studying in the S.S.khanna Girls Degree Colleges of in the academic year 2014 and 2015 at Meerapur in allahabad. Key words: ICT, Teaching, B.Ed. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-06-01&r=cse |
| By: | Manoj B. Vanara |
| Abstract: | Customer satisfaction is defined as the way that customer usually view or feel about certain services and products. Internet Broadband services providers are of paramount importance in the developing economy of India. Many Internet Broadband service providers are offering various services in the market. Customer satisfaction with regards to Broadband services is resulting from the evaluation of service provided by an ISP to an individual in relation to expectations. This study is mainly focused to understand the Consumer satisfaction with regards to of BSNL Broadband services in Ahmedabad. The outcomes of this survey can be used by the BSNL, for understanding the customers satisfaction in respect to Broadband services and add value to their customers to increase their market share and Brand Image. This paper also attempts to understand the brand awareness, competitive strength of the company and problems faced by the customers, which helps the company to take appropriate measures to solve the problems. The Primary data was collected through survey method and was analyzed with the help of various statistical tools to draw meaningful conclusion. Key words: Customer satisfaction, Broadband |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-06-09&r=cse |
| By: | Angelucci, Charles; Cagé, Julia |
| Abstract: | Newspapers' advertising revenues have declined sharply in recent decades. We build a model to investigate the consequences on newspapers' pricing and quality choices of a reduction in advertisers' willingness to pay for readers' attention. In our model, selling subscriptions in addition to newsstand issues allows to price discriminate between readers. We show that lower advertising revenues decrease newspapers' incentives to provide quality, which increases newspapers' incentive to price discriminate whenever readers' sensitivity to quality is sufficiently high. We build a unique dataset on French newspapers between 1960 and 1974 and perform a difference-in-differences analysis using a "quasi-natural experiment": the introduction of advertising on television in 1968, which affects national newspapers more severely than local ones. We find robust evidence of increased price discrimination and decreased quality as a result of the drop in advertising revenues, which may help rationalize current industry trends. |
| Keywords: | advertising; Newspaper industry; Newspaper quality; price discrimination; Two-sided markets |
| JEL: | L11 L15 M37 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11414&r=cse |
| By: | Starodubrovskaya Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Since mid-2015, the republics of the north-eastern Caucasus (Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia) have been experiencing a new round of escalation of the conflict, which is rather simplistically interpreted by many observers as a controversy between Sufis[1] and Salafis. It should be noted that the law enforcement agencies and even the authorities of the North Caucasian republics are also most heavily involved in that conflict. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, North Caucasus |
| JEL: | H11 H70 H77 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-242&r=cse |
| By: | Blanche Segrestin (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | L'article explore la notion d'intérêt social, et montre comment il peut éclairer certaines dynamiques des conventions dans l'entreprise. |
| Keywords: | innovation , entreprise, convention, objet social,intérêt social |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01288342&r=cse |
| By: | Tiago P. Ferraz |
| Abstract: | Large infrastructure projects may cause permanent impacts on their local environment, affecting the living conditions of local people in a negative manner. To mitigate impacts caused by installation of hydroelectric plants, Brazilian law provides that municipalities are compensated by the Compensação Financeira pelo Uso de Recursos Hídricos (CFURH) and the payment of royalties (Itaipu). In this work I test whether such payments have actually worked as a benefit sharing mechanism, examining its effects on some social and economic indicators by way of two steps procedure: first, the propensity score of municipalities benefiting from the compensation is estimated using georeferenced data from WWF’s project HydroSHEDS. Then, I estimate a difference-in-differences model, comparing the dependent variables in the control and treatment groups before and after the compensation. The results show a limited effect of the compensation on living conditions. Human Development Index (HDI) and infant mortality showed a little improvement, but illiteracy rate and income inequality worsened. |
| Keywords: | benefit-sharing; CFURH; royalties. |
| JEL: | H75 H76 I38 |
| Date: | 2016–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2016wpecon13&r=cse |
| By: | James Uguccioni |
| Abstract: | We develop internationally comparable estimates of the Human Development Index (HDI) for the Canadian provinces and territories over the 2000-2014 period. The HDI is a composite index composed of three dimensions (life expectancy, education and income) measured by four indicators (life expectancy at birth, average years of education, expected years of schooling and GNI per capita). We first replicate the Canadian estimates from the most recent Human Development Report (HDR) using data from Statistics Canada. Next, we generate estimates for the provinces and territories following the same methodology and using the same Canadian data sources. We make these estimates internationally comparable by scaling each province or territory’s estimate to Canada’s in the most recent HDR. This allows the provinces and territories to be ranked in the most recent HDR international rankings for all four component variables as well as the overall HDI. The highest HDI score in 2014 among the provinces and territories belongs to Alberta, which would be fourth in the international rankings, while the lowest ranking region is Nunavut, which would be in 46th place. Overall, our report highlights the diverse human development experiences of Canadians that are concealed by Canada’s overall HDI. |
| Keywords: | Human Development Index, Economic Development, Well-Being, HDI, HDR, Canada, Provinces, Education, Income, Life Expectancy |
| JEL: | O18 O15 O51 O57 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sls:resrep:1614&r=cse |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | The Country Water Assessment (CWA) evaluates the balance between reliable and available water supplies and future demands for sustainable economic development in Indonesia. Articulated around the water,food, and energy nexus, the CWA explores technical, institutional, and policy options to improve planning, management, and development of water resources. The 2015–2019 midterm government development policy guides the priorities covered under the CWA. This assessment intends to provide a platform for dialogue to advance water reforms across Indonesia, focusing on Java, Sumatera, and Sulawesi—the country’s three main economic regions. |
| Keywords: | water sector, Indonesia, water resources, country water assessment, water, food, energy nexus, nexus |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt167988&r=cse |
| By: | Stacey, Brian |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to codify a standard nomenclature for similarity measures based on recent literature and to advance the field of similarity measures through the introduction of non-binary similarity between more than two attribute vectors. |
| Keywords: | Binary Similarity Nonbinary Similarity Nonparametric Similarity Testing Multivector Similarity |
| JEL: | C14 C53 C65 |
| Date: | 2016–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72815&r=cse |
| By: | Kyle Peyton (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Chris Ryan (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne; ARC Centre for Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course); Justin van de Ven (ARC Centre for Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course) |
| Abstract: | This study looks at whether differences in student attitudes towards mathematics and science between Victorian students and those in selected other countries can explain differences in student achievement between them. We find that they cannot. In general, in the 2011 Trends in Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) data used here, Victorian school students have more positive attitudes towards mathematics and science than students in high achievement countries. These results also hold where we remove any language effects from the way people respond to attitudinal questions, or any cultural or social-desirability induced elements of the responses. Further, the most reliable estimates of the relationship between attitudes and achievement point to quite small effects, suggesting any increase in achievement associated with improved student attitudes could only be small. |
| Keywords: | International tests, achievement, student attitudes |
| JEL: | I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2016n22&r=cse |
| By: | Andrea Kunnert (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | The expenditure-to-income ratio is a widely used measure of housing affordability as it is easy to calculate and to interpret. Yet it suffers from several flaws that may diminish its usefulness. This paper addresses the main points of critique and improves the accuracy of the ratio measure by providing additional information about the distribution (values at the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentile) for the cost burden and calculating cumulative distributions for a range of expenditure-to-income shares instead of one single benchmark. Furthermore, an upper limit for income and housing quality is set in order to avoid misclassifying households that have strong preferences towards housing consumption. The results indicate that these modifications are necessary to avoid overestimating affordability problems. The tailored ratio approach developed in this paper holds up well when contrasting its results to that of the residual income approach in Austria by tenure. |
| Keywords: | housing affordability, ratio approach, quality adjustment, residual income approach, Austria |
| Date: | 2016–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2016:i:520&r=cse |
| By: | Elena Carletti (Bocconi University - Department of Finance; European University Institute - Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS)); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute); Jan-Peter Siedlarek (Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Giancarlo Spagnolo (Stockholm School of Economics (SITE); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); University of Rome 'Tor Vergata'; EIEF) |
| Abstract: | We find that stricter merger control legislation increases abnormal announcement returns of targets in bank mergers by 7 percentage points. Analyzing potential explanations for this result, we document an increase in the pre-merger profitability of targets, a decrease in the size of acquirers and a decreasing share of transactions in which banks are acquired by other banks. Other merger properties, including the size and risk profile of targets, the geographic overlap of merging banks and the stock market response of rivals appear unaffected. The evidence suggests that the strengthening of merger control leads to more efficient and more competitive transactions. |
| Keywords: | banks; mergers and acquisitions; merger control; antitrust |
| JEL: | G21 G34 K21 L40 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1633&r=cse |
| By: | Véronique Thireau (Chrome - EA 7352 - UNIMES - Université de Nîmes) |
| Abstract: | La santé pose aux décideurs et aux citoyens plusieurs défis : - un défi scientifique, celui de la conquête de l’homme par lui-même, - un défi politique ou transparait la question de l’intérêt général, - un défi social voire éthique portant l’accès au droit, l’égalité de traitement, les mécanismes redistributifs et la réduction des inégalités, - un défi statistique concernant la mesure d’un problème tant individuel que collectif et que l’on peine à définir. Enfin, un défi économique qui interroge différentes théories et induit différentes politiques à mettre en oeuvre. |
| Keywords: | politiques de santé,santé publique, théories économiques |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01311494&r=cse |
| By: | Centre for European Economic Reserach (ZEW) |
| Abstract: | The study delivers qualitative assessments of the sensitivity mechanisms at work as well as quantitative results. Tax systems are related with interest and inflation rates through various mechanisms which sometimes act in qualitatively different directions. Such a mechanism is, for example, that usually nominal returns are taxed rather than real returns. The Devereux/Griffith model incorporates these mechanisms of real world tax systems and allows for precise quantification.The broad range of figures produced in this study helps to illustrate and indicate the levels of effective tax burdens in different countries for a series of relevant situations. For comparing tax systems in the member states, common assumptions on interest and inflation rates are essential. Although there are no “universally true values” for effective tax levels in the member states, the analysis shows that the base case gives a good indication of the member states’ effective tax levels and member states’ relative position in a cross-country comparison. |
| Keywords: | corporate taxation, effective tax rates, inflation, interest rates, tax burden |
| JEL: | H21 H26 E43 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tax:taxpap:0063&r=cse |
| By: | Kimberly Berg; Nelson C. Mark |
| Abstract: | We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk. The cross-country high-minuslow (HML) conditional skewness of the unemployment gap—our measure of global macroeconomic uncertainty—is a factor that is robustly priced in currency excess returns. A widening of the HML gap signifies increasing divergence, disparity and inequality of economic performance across countries. |
| Keywords: | Asset Pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates |
| JEL: | E21 E43 F31 G12 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-32&r=cse |
| By: | Guillermo Ordonez (University of Pennsylvania); Gary Gorton (Yale School of Management) |
| Abstract: | To end a financial crisis, the central bank is to lend freely, against good collateral, at a high rate, according to Bagehot’s Rule. We argue that in theory and in practice there is a missing ingredient to Bagehot’s Rule: secrecy. Re-creating confidence requires that the central bank lend in secret, hiding the identities of the borrowers, to prevent information about individual collateral from being produced and to create an information externality by raising the perceived value of average collateral. Ironically, the participation of “bad†borrowers, with low quality collateral, in the central bank’s lending program is a desirable part of re-creating confidence because it creates stigma. Stigma is critical to sustain secrecy because no borrower wants to reveal his participation in the lending program, and it is limited by the central bank charging a high rate for its loans. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:356&r=cse |
| By: | Méon, Pierre-Guillaume (Free University of Brussels); Tojerow, Ilan (Free University of Brussels) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between major religious denominations and individuals' levels of education, using the World Values Survey. In a first step, running country-by-country regressions, we report first-time evidence that no single denomination has a universal effect on education. Each denomination has a positive and statistically significant effect in some countries, a negative and statistically significant effect in others, and a statistically insignificant effect elsewhere. In a second step, we relate the sign of the impact of a denomination in a country to whether the denomination is a minority in that country. We find that denominations that are a minority in a country are more likely to be associated with a higher level of education, and less likely to be associated with a lower level of education in that country. In both steps, the findings are independent from the specification of the regressions used in the first stage to determine the sign of the impact of denominations on educational outcomes. The finding of the second step is moreover robust to defining minority denominations using various thresholds. It is robust to controlling for whether the denomination is a state religion, for the country's level of democracy, per capita GDP, or level of education, to introducing denomination- and country- fixed effects, and to controlling for the identity of the largest other denomination in the country. |
| Keywords: | religion, education, minority |
| JEL: | I2 O5 Z1 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10077&r=cse |
| By: | Lagani, Vincenzo; Athineou, Giorgos; Farcomeni, Alessio; Tsagris, Michail; Tsamardinos, Ioannis |
| Abstract: | The statistically equivalent signature (SES) algorithm is a method for feature selection inspired by the principles of constrained-based learning of Bayesian Networks. Most of the currently available feature-selection methods return only a single subset of features, supposedly the one with the highest predictive power. We argue that in several domains multiple subsets can achieve close to maximal predictive accuracy, and that arbitrarily providing only one has several drawbacks. The SES method attempts to identify multiple, predictive feature subsets whose performances are statistically equivalent. Under that respect SES subsumes and extends previous feature selection algorithms, like the maxmin parent children algorithm. SES is implemented in an homonym function included in the R package MXM, standing for mens ex machina, meaning 'mind from the machine' in Latin. The MXM implementation of SES handles several data-analysis tasks, namely classi�cation, regression and survival analysis. In this paper we present the SES algorithm, its implementation, and provide examples of use of the SES function in R. Furthermore, we analyze three publicly available data sets to illustrate the equivalence of the signatures retrieved by SES and to contrast SES against the state-of-the-art feature selection method LASSO. Our results provide initial evidence that the two methods perform comparably well in terms of predictive accuracy and that multiple, equally predictive signatures are actually present in real world data. |
| Keywords: | feature selection, constraint-based algorithms, multiple predictive signatures |
| JEL: | C88 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72772&r=cse |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the highly-unionized public sectors, the high public shares in total employment, and the public-sector wage premia observed in Europe, this paper examines the importance of public-sector unions for macroeconomic theory. The model generates cyclical behavior in hours and wages that is consistent with data behavior in an economy with highly-unionized public sector, namely Germany during the period 1970-2007. The union model is an improvement over a model with exogenous public employment. In addition, endogenously-determined public wage and hours add to the distortionary effect of contractionary tax reforms by generating greater tax rate changes, thus producing higher welfare losses. |
| Keywords: | public sector labor unions,fiscal policy,public wages,public employment |
| JEL: | E62 J51 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:144529&r=cse |
| By: | Ascensión Andina Díaz (Departamento de Teoría e Historia Económica, Universidad de Málaga); José A. García-Martínez (Departamento de Estudios Económicos y Financieros, Universidad Miguel Hernández) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effect of media coverage on the incentives of a careerist judge to act on her information. The novelty of our approach is to consider a judge who seeks to signal both \textit{expertise} and (absence of) \textit{bias}. To this, we incorporate three types of judges: the high quality or wise judge, the normal judge and the biased/lenient judge. Our results show that whether media coverage of judicial cases leads to better sentencing practices or not, deeply depend on the proportion of lenient judges in the population. In particular, we obtain that when this proportion is either too low or too high, media coverage does not affect a judge's behavior. However, her behavior if very different in one case than in the other. We also obtain that when the perceived proportion of lenient judges is neither too strong nor too weak, media coverage of judicial cases can induce a judge to act less on her information and to pass harsher sentences. |
| Keywords: | Careerist judges; bias; transparency; media coverage; sentencing practices |
| JEL: | D82 K40 L82 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mal:wpaper:2016-2&r=cse |
| By: | Jonathan Chiu; Cyril Monnet |
| Abstract: | The market for central bank reserves is mainly over-the-counter and exhibits a core-periphery network structure. This paper develops a model of relationship lending in the unsecured interbank market. In equilibrium, a tiered lending network arises endogenously as banks choose to build relationships to insure against liquidity shocks and to economize on the cost to trade in the interbank market. Relationships matter for banks’ bidding strategies at the central bank auction and introduce a relationship premium that can significantly distort the observed overnight rate. For example, it can explain some anomalies in the level of interest rates—namely, that banks sometimes trade above (below) the central bank’s lending (deposit) rate. The model also helps to explain how monetary policy affects the network structure of the interbank market and its functioning, and how the market responds dynamically to an exit from the floor system. We also use the model to discuss the potential effects of bilateral exposure limits on relationship lending. |
| Keywords: | Interest rates, Monetary policy implementation, Transmission of monetary policy |
| JEL: | E4 E5 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-33&r=cse |
| By: | Fabrice Rousseau (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, Maynooth University.); Hervé Boco (University of Toulouse Toulouse Business School ISAE); Laurent Germain (Workplace-Name:University of Toulouse Toulouse Business School ISAE) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the competition of heterogeneously informed traders in a multi-auction setting. We obtain that the competition can take different forms depending on the number of traders, trading rounds and the noise in the information. When the number of traders is small and the number of trading rounds is large, traders may trade very aggressively at the opening and at the end of the trading day with lower trading intensity in between. Hence, we can explain volume patterns by the nature of the competition between traders rather than by pattern in the level of liquidity. We find that the noise in the signal may be beneficial for traders when the competition is strong as it gives them a monopolistic position on their private information. The amount of noise maximizing the trader’s expected profit increases with the number of trading rounds as well as the number of traders. This implies that the value of information is closely related to the market where that information is subsequently being used. |
| Keywords: | efficiency, asymmetric information, noise, liquidity, adverse selection, competition. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:may:mayecw:n269-16.pdf&r=cse |
| By: | Jan KALLSEN (Munich University of Technology); Johannes MUHLE-KARBE (ETH Zurich and Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | We show that wealth processes in the block-shaped order book model of Obizhaeva/Wang converge to their counterparts in the reduced-form model proposed by Almgren/Chriss, as the resilience of the order book tends to infinity. As an application of this limit theorem, we explain how to reduce portfolio choice in highly-resilient Obizhaeva/Wang models to the corresponding problem in an Almgren/Chriss setup with small quadratic trading costs. |
| Keywords: | Limit order books, price impact, high-resilience limit |
| JEL: | G11 G12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1472&r=cse |
| By: | Dana SISEA (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest); Valentin SCARLAT (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | The production of goods and services by the entities producing, I assume a significant consumption of material resources and money to which they relate and in the calculations underlying the accounts. In this respect, a major role is the responsibility of the management accounting processing information on resource consumption, they recorded in their own filing system and calculated in basis of this information, the cost of goods and services. The role and importance of this indicator shall require it to be calculated with greater accuracy, at a level as close as possible to reality. This requirement is subject to the application in priority in management accounting, the most effective methods of calculation of costs, those that determine in the most truthful. Methods of calculation differ, in the main, in the light of the specific nature of the activity and profile production technology. The system for calculating the production enterprises being practised in Romania from base a small number of methods of calculation (method, method and methodology phases), all showing deficiencies with respect to the allocation of indirect costs and insufficiently accurate calculation of the cost. Companies in developed countries have economic and a tradition in the field of cost calculation with the application of advanced methods, one of which being the calculation of activity whose efficiency and deployment context are displayed in the following. |
| Keywords: | dual accounting system, harmonization of accounting systems, method of calculation, object of calculation, direct expenditure, overheads, the basis of allocation |
| JEL: | M41 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eub:wpaper:2016-06&r=cse |
| By: | Michelle Rao |
| Abstract: | Using the data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, this paper estimates the relationship between language and labour force participation of women in Sub-Saharan Africa. The results suggest that women who speak languages with stronger distinctions between masculine and feminine are less likely to participate in the labour force. This relationship holds both across and within countries, even after controlling for individual characteristics, religion and proxies for gender social norms related to ones ethnicity, such as historical use of the plough. The results suggest that language has a direct effect on preferences regarding labour market decisions, above and beyond gender norms arising from ethnicity and religion. These findings contribute to the growing literature on the relationship between socio-psychological factors and gender differences in economic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Language; Identity; Culture; Gender social norms; Female labour force participation ; Sapir-Whorf hypothesis |
| JEL: | D03 J16 N37 O55 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2016-12&r=cse |
| By: | Klumpp, Matthias; Neukirchen, Thomas; Jäger, Stefanie |
| Abstract: | Logistics commands a huge variety of dynamic developments, driven by technological, organizational as well as market changes. Within this dynamic environment, logistics management demands a competent and flexible workforce, updated by current training and qualification tools. This research paper is presenting an analysis of current trend and technology topics within logistics and their connection as well as supply with state-of-the-art training tools. Specifically, the trend of gamification in qualification and education is described and applied to the logistics qualification sector. The paper also outlines the basic ideas and concepts for the research and development project MARTINA in Germany. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fomild:51&r=cse |
| By: | Asadul Islam (Monash University); Steven Stillman (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano); Christopher Worswick (Carleton University) |
| Abstract: | The impact that an unforeseen event has on household welfare depends on the extent to which household members can take actions to mitigate the direct impact of the shock. In this paper, we use nine years of longitudinal data from the Household Income Labour Dynamics of Australia (HILDA) survey to examine the impact of job displacement and serious health problems on: individual labour supply and incomes, household incomes and food expenditure. We extend on the previous literature by examining whether mitigation strategies and their effectiveness differs for the native-born and immigrants. Immigrants make up nearly one quarter of the Australian population and there are a number of reasons to suspect that they may be less able to mitigate adverse shocks than the native-born. |
| Keywords: | job loss, income, consumption, labour supply, disability |
| JEL: | J65 I31 J15 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1613&r=cse |
| By: | Islam, Asadul (Monash University); Stillman, Steven (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano); Worswick, Christopher (Carleton University) |
| Abstract: | The impact that an unforeseen event has on household welfare depends on the extent to which household members can take actions to mitigate the direct impact of the shock. In this paper, we use nine years of longitudinal data from the Household Income Labour Dynamics of Australia (HILDA) survey to examine the impact of job displacement and serious health problems on: individual labour supply and incomes, household incomes and food expenditure. We extend on the previous literature by examining whether mitigation strategies and their effectiveness differs for the native-born and immigrants. Immigrants make up nearly one-quarter of the Australian population and there are a number of reasons to suspect that they may be less able to mitigate adverse shocks than the native-born. |
| Keywords: | job loss, income, consumption, labour supply, disability |
| JEL: | J65 I31 J15 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10063&r=cse |
| By: | Ojo, Marianne; Newton, Sarah |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the widely held theoretical view that zero interest rates should result in lower borrowing costs – propelling the demand for borrowing, “the theory and practice of monetary policy”, against the practical and broader acknowledgements that further negative consequences, namely bank runs - as well as the possibility of the occurrence of concerns of banks becoming more prone to the probabilities of greater unwillingness to lend, could occur. The latter negative consequence of banks’ unwillingness to lend, being considered to arise where “banks absorb the cost of negative rates themselves” such that this phenomenon “squeezes” the profit margin between their lending and deposit rates. However, as will be illustrated, different sources and authorities on the literature agree that it is still too early to draw conclusions on the impact of negative interest rates – be it in respect of i) whether it will work, ii) its wider impact and repercussions for the economy – as well as those economies where the policy has not yet been implemented (even where the policy is on the cards – namely in jurisdictions such as the United States), as well as (iii) its impact on the behavior of individuals (households) and firms. In exploring the appropriateness of its adoption – given prevailing global financial conditions and the economic environment, the paper also contributes to the extant literature from a theoretical, practical, empirical, as well as comparative jurisdictional perspective. |
| Keywords: | interest rates; monetary policy; central banks; market rates; lending rates |
| JEL: | E5 E58 E6 F3 G2 G3 K2 M4 |
| Date: | 2016–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72696&r=cse |
| By: | Grzegorz Wesołowski |
| Abstract: | I show that the long term interest rate that includes a time-varying term premium stabilizes GDP and it does not affect significantly inflation volatility in Poland. I derive this result from an estimated DSGE model of a small open economy. GDP volatility would have been much higher if the endogenous part of the term premium had been switched off in the model, while the inflation volatility has not been affected by the presence of the term premium. At the same time, the term premium shock had only a minor impact on GDP and inflation volatilities which suggests that the QE programs conducted by the major central banks did not have a substantial impact on the Polish economy. |
| Keywords: | long term interest rates, time-varying term premium, business cycle, small open economy |
| JEL: | E32 E43 E44 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:242&r=cse |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | This report summarizes the investments in clean energy made by the operations departments of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 2015, condensing information from project databases and formal reports in an easy-to-reference format. This report was prepared by ADB’s Clean Energy Program which provides the cohesive agenda that encompasses and guides ADB’s lending and nonlending assistance, initiatives, and plan of action for sustainable growth in Asia and the Pacific. |
| Keywords: | adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, adb energy investments, clean energy, renewable energy, solar energy, wind energy, energy efficiency, climate change financing, green cities, clean energy program, sustainable transport, loans, grants, technical assistance |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt168065-2&r=cse |
| By: | Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay; Gaston Yalonetzky |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses meanings of intra-generational mobility when variables take values corresponding to either unordered or ordered categories. We propose concepts of maximum and minimum mobility, along with mobility-inducing transformations and related desirable properties. Then we axiomatically characterize indices of individual mobility and social mobility. Our first set of concepts, properties and indices, measures mobility as diversity, unpredictability or instability in people’s status along the accounting period. This notion of mobility is relevant and applicable to both nominal and ordinal variables. Our second set measures mobility as average distance travelled across categories from one period to the next. This latter notion is only relevant for ordinal variables. We apply these indices to measure the extent of mobility in the responses to subjective wellbeing questions in the United Kingdom, using the British Household Panel Survey. |
| Keywords: | Intra-generational mobility, categorical variables, life satisfaction |
| JEL: | D30 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgs:wpaper:65&r=cse |
| By: | Sergey Ivashchenko (Saint Petersburg Institute for Economics and Mathematics (Russian Academy of Sciences), National Research University Higher School of Economics,Russia); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | A medium-scale nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model was estimated (54 variables, 29 state variables, 7 observed variables). The model includes an observed variable for stock market returns. The root-mean square error (RMSE) of the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts was calculated. The nonlinear DSGE model with measurement errors outperforms AR (1), VAR (1) and the linearised DSGE in terms of the quality of the out-of-sample forecasts. The nonlinear DSGE model without measurement errors is of a quality equal to that of the linearised DSGE model |
| Keywords: | nonlinear DSGE; Quadratic Kalman Filter; out-of-sample |
| JEL: | E32 E37 E44 E47 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201659&r=cse |
| By: | Canta, Chiara; Cremer, Helmuth; Gahvari, Firouz |
| Abstract: | We study the role and design of private and public insurance programs when informal care is uncertain. Children's degree of altruism is represented by a parameter which is randomly distributed over some interval. The level of informal care on which dependent elderly can count is therefore random. Social insurance helps parents who receive a low level of care, but it comes at the cost of crowding out informal care. Crowding out occurs both at the intensive and the extensive margins. We consider two types of LTC policies. A topping up (TU ) scheme provides a transfer which is non exclusive and can be supplemented. An opting out (OO) scheme is exclusive and cannot be topped up. TU will involve crowding out both at the intensive and the extensive margins, whereas OO will crowd out solely at the extensive margin. However, OO is not necessarily the dominant policy as it may exacerbate crowding out at the extensive margin. Finally, we show that the distortions of both policies can be mitigated by using an appropriately designed mixed policy. |
| Keywords: | Long term care, uncertain altruism, private insurance, public insurance, topping up, opting out. |
| JEL: | H2 H5 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:30580&r=cse |
| By: | Gilberto Muraro (Università di Padova) |
| Abstract: | In a framework where laws are assumed to reflect the ethical values of the market social economy, the paper analyzes the role of ethics both in the wealth production and in the wealth distribution. As for the first item, ethics becomes relevant in the discretionary space left by laws that are often unclear or not fully protected by controls and penalties. Ethics is a relevant factor of economic growth but its diffusion is often blocked by short term invidividual interests, while the means to diffuse ethics in the society are of uncertain impact. A wide diffusion of the corporate social responsibility may be very helpful. As for the wealth distribution, ethics implies a meritocratic system of individual rewards but also an additional redistribution, whose analytical basis is offered by the “newcontractualism” proposed by John Rawls. Ethics appears then the result of a collective choice made under uncertainty and embedded in the religious rules or in the constitutions, which become the constraint of the ordinary laws that are much more influenced by the present conflicting interests. |
| Keywords: | ethics, corporate social responsibility, neocontractualism, redistribution, welfare state, inequality |
| JEL: | D63 D64 D71 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipu:wpaper:47&r=cse |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | We show that in a exogenous growth model with informal economy calibrated to Bulgarian data under the progressive taxation regime (1993-2007), the economy exhibits equilibrium indeterminacy due to the the presence of an unofficial production. These results are in line with the findings in Benhabib and Farmer (1994, 1996) and Farmer (1999). Also, the findings in this paper are in contrast to Guo and Lansing (1988) who argue that progressive taxation works as an automatic stabilizer. Under the flat tax regime (2008-14), the economy calibrated to Bulgarian data displays saddle-path stability. The decrease in the average effective tax rate addresses the indeterminacy issue and eliminates the "sink" dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Progressive taxation,Informal economy,Equilibrium (in)determinacy |
| JEL: | D91 J46 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:144525&r=cse |
| By: | Nancy Colombé |
| Abstract: | Despite the extensive literature investigating the impact of minimum wage legislation on employment, only a few studies have been carried out in developing countries. Furthermore, there exists only a few studies on the impact of the minimum wage on the human capital investment decisions of teenagers, and as far as I am aware there is no evidence from a developing country context. Given the importance of human capital accumulation for long run economic development, an analysis of the poverty reduction potential of introducing a minimum wage must take into account its impact on investment in human capital. Therefore, I address the question of how minimum wage legislation can impact the human capital investment decision of households in a developing country. Using data from 1990-2000 I use a multinomial logit model to estimate the impact of the minimum wage on the occupational choice of teenagers in Indonesia at the province level. It is found that between 1990 and 2000 the sharp increase in the real minimum wage reduced the proportion of teenagers enrolled in Senior Secondary education, whereas in the following decade the minimum wage had a positive impact on the enrolment rate. The effect of the minimum wage on the occupational choice of teenagers does not differ according to gender. |
| Keywords: | Education, Minimum Wage Legislation, Human Capital |
| JEL: | I25 J38 O15 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2016-13&r=cse |
| By: | Agnès Durrande-Moreau (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc) |
| Abstract: | This article focuses on the relationships that can arise between a food product under protected designation of origin (PDO) and tourism. A case study examines the PDO cheese Beaufort and highlights that this PDO food is really appealing to tourists, not only by its gustative but also by its cultural and symbolic aspects. Many types of agritourist activities can be identified. A dynamic relationship between the PDO product and tourism is emerging early in the history of the case and is strengthening over time in a sort of virtuous circle, which in addition creates new resources. Success factors are discussed and some of them reveal being inherent to any PDO product. The Beaufort case can be an example on how to add value to a PDO product by using tourism. |
| Abstract: | L'article s'intéresse aux relations entre les produits agroalimentaires d'origine protégée (AOP) et le tourisme. Au moyen de l'étude du cas Beaufort, la recherche met en évidence plusieurs résultats. L'AOP présente un attrait pour les touristes, non seulement au plan physique et alimentaire mais aussi au plan culturel et symbolique, ce qui stimule des formes de tourisme variées, qui sont examinées. Une dynamique s'instaure très tôt entre la production fromagère et le tourisme, qui se renforce au fil du temps et secrète de nouvelles ressources. A l'examen des facteurs de succès, il semble que toute AOP recèle un fort potentiel touristique et pourrait se valoriser en activant la dynamique observée dans le cas. |
| Keywords: | cheese,PDO (protected designation of origin),DPO (designated protection of origin),tourism,tourisme,agriculture,fromage,AOP appellation d'origine protégée,innovation |
| Date: | 2015–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01312504&r=cse |
| By: | Morone, Andrea; Temerario, Tiziana |
| Abstract: | The recent literature on individual and group choices over risk has led to different results. In some studies under unanimity, groups were found to be less risk averse than individuals, while those under majority did not highlight significant differences. However, both the types of studies impose the decision rule to the group. In the present work we elicited groups’ preference under risk using a consensus rule, i.e. groups are free to solve disagreement endogenously, just as in the real life. Results from our pairwise choices experiment shows that when group members are free to use any rule they want in order to reach unanimity, there is no statistical difference between individuals’ and groups’ risk aversion. |
| Keywords: | Risk; uncertainty; decision-making; group decision; lottery; experimental economics; experiment; |
| JEL: | C92 D81 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72747&r=cse |
| By: | Goodness C. Aye (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria); Peter Wanke (COPPEAD Graduate Business School, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an efficiency assessment of agricultural production in South Africa from 1970-2014, using an integrated two-stage fuzzy approach. More precisely, Fuzzy TOPSIS is used to assess the relative efficiency of agriculture in South Africa over the course of the years. In the second stage, fuzzy regressions based on different rule-based systems are used to predict the impact of socio-economic and demographic variables on agricultural efficiency. They are confronted with the bootstrapped truncated regressions with conditional α-levels proposed in Wanke et al. (2016a). The results reveal that R&D, land quality, health expenditure-population growth ratio have a significant, positive impact on efficiency levels, besides the GINI index. Specifically in terms of accuracy, fuzzy regressions outperformed the bootstrapped truncated regressions with conditional α-levels. Policy implications are derived. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, South Africa, Fuzzy TOPSIS, Fuzzy Regression, Performance |
| JEL: | C6 D24 Q10 Q28 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201658&r=cse |
| By: | Bettina Brueggemann (Goethe University Frankfurt) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the recent and growing literature on optimal top marginal income tax rates. It computes optimal marginal tax rates for top earners in a Bewley-Aiyagari type economy explicitly accounting for entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs make up more than one third of the highest-earning one percent in the income distribution despite representing less than ten percent of the population. They are thus disproportionately affected by an increase in the top marginal income tax rate. Since entrepreneurs overall also employ half of the private-sector workforce, such policy changes can have important repercussions for aggregate labor demand and productivity. Nonetheless, the welfare maximizing top marginal tax rate amounts to 82.5 percent, and the revenue maximizing one to 90 percent. A steady state comparison between the benchmark economy featuring the current US tax system and the economy with the welfare maximizing top marginal tax rate illustrates the underlying mechanisms. The substantial increase in taxes leads to a large degree of redistribution, yielding sizable welfare gains for low-income households. Lower equilibrium wages benefit medium-sized entrepreneurs and enable them to grow, such that all entrepreneurs except those directly affected by the higher tax experience considerable welfare gains. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:332&r=cse |
| By: | Sprenger, Julia |
| Abstract: | The current study examines individual decision making in the fi eld of personal finance. How do people arrive at a financial decision? A laboratory experiment investigates the way external information is integrated into the decision making process. The objective is to explore the link between financial literacy and information acquisition behavior. The results show that participants with low financial literacy generally try to compensate for their low decision-specific knowledge with a higher demand for external information but give up this strategy when the information environment is restricted to impersonal information. For female participants, low financial literacy increases demand for advice. These findings reveal that a low knowledge base in finance can translate into low engagement in information search which might further increase the risk of low decision quality. The study links these findings to the debate on consumer empowerment and discusses implications for the financial services industry. |
| Keywords: | financial literacy,information acquisition,decision making,experiment |
| JEL: | C91 G02 D83 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:626&r=cse |
| By: | Luigi Campiglio (DISCE, Università Cattolica) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the evolution of the European crisis, its intellectual roots and causes, and the consequence of the austerity economic policies: we rely on our previous econometric estimates, which show a positive impact of public investments as a jump start for private investments and employment. US and European economic impact on growth and public debt are assessed. According to our estimates the European economic crisis in Southern European countries has been precipitated by the sudden consumption drop caused by the austerity policies: the consequences of these policies have been widespread causing an economic and social fracture within the European countries, an upsurge of unemployment and poverty, and a slump of births. We argue that Germany was “fortunate”, enjoying the coincidence of accessing new Asian markets, when China joined the WTO in 2001, with the right high-quality products: the fast and huge increase of Germany current account balance has been coupled with the lack of its domestic and European aggregate demand. The deflationary pressures of the austerity policies have been amplified by the slowing growth rate of China and the economic impact on the unusually high export/GDP ratio of the Germany economy. We discuss in detail the positive role of the welfare state in the European countries, which is crucial to cope with the extreme heterogeneity of its demographic structure and the effort to resume economic growth in Europe. |
| Keywords: | European crisis, investment, Germany, welfare state |
| JEL: | E2 F4 I3 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie5:ispe0077&r=cse |
| By: | Rondinone, Gonzalo; Thomasz, Esteban Otto |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to provide comprehensive insights into the architecture and impact of a recent financial innovation known as commodity index. The motivation of this study is based on the impact that these instruments may have in the functioning of commodity markets, leading to what the literature has called “financialization of commodities”. Therefore, we first present the concept of financialization. Then, we describe the architecture of commodites index and the corresponding trading vehicle called Exchangeable Trade Funds. In the third section we introduce an exploratory analysis of recent trends and stylized facts of the evolution of the market. We conclude with possible impacts of those instruments on the market, opening the hypothesis that they can generate a major source of risk in the markets that already describe a high level of volatility. |
| Keywords: | exchangeable trade funds, financialization |
| JEL: | G11 Q02 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72677&r=cse |
| By: | Chen, Daniel L.; Halberstam, Yosh; Yu, Alan |
| Abstract: | Previous studies suggest a significant role of language in the court room, yet none has identified a definitive correlation between vocal characteristics and court outcomes. This paper demonstrates that voice-based snap judgments based solely on the introductory sentences of lawyers arguing in front of the Supreme Court of the United States predict outcomes in the Court. In this study, participants rated the opening statement of male advocates arguing before the Supreme Court between 1998 and 2012 in terms of masculinity, attractiveness, confidence, intelligence, trustworthiness, and aggressiveness. We found significant correlation between vocal characteristics and court outcomes and the correlation is specific to perceived masculinity even when judgment of masculinity is based only on less than three seconds of exposure to a lawyer’s speech sample. Specifically, male advocates are more likely to win when they are perceived as less masculine. No other personality dimension predicts court outcomes. While this study does not aim to establish any causal connections, our findings suggest that vocal characteristics may be relevant in even as solemn a setting as the Supreme Court of the United States. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:iastwp:30641&r=cse |
| By: | Al-Jarhi, Mabid |
| Abstract: | Any economic system will certainly be influenced in institutions and rules by the underlying political system. While the political processes are not carried out in the market, it can influence economic decisions related to consumption, saving, investment and exchange in no small way. Through the political processes, the shape of markets is formed, the taxation system is setup and government budget is determined. In addition, the political processes directly influence economic policies, including fiscal, monetary, trade and development policies, especially in the ways are formed and implemented. The analysis of the Islamic political system through the use of economic methodology is rare. It is common to provide historical analysis based on the experience of “Saqifah(t) Bani Saad” with the selection of the first Caliph Abu Bakr, as well as the method used to select the three following Caliph. This would involve a great deal of textual evidence and their interpretation. This paper presents an alternative approach to draw the main features of the Islamic political system from the basic Islamic values as well as contemporary human experiences. We start with identifying the most important Islamic values related to the field of politics, and set the salient features of a configuration of a contemporary political system that would fulfill such values. The first section deals with Islamic political values and in particular, those related to Tawheed, which we define it to be something more than just monotheism. In addition, we draw from contemporary Muslem literature the Islamic constitutional values. The second section discusses how Maqassed (ultimate objectives) of Shari'ah are related to the political system. The third section discusses economic theory of social choice. The fourth section discusses the sources of political failure and how they can be confronted. The fifth section discusses the choice between types of government. The sixth section discusses the lessons to be learnt from the government of Madinah. Finally, in the last section, a blueprint for an Islamic economic system is presented. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: political values, constitutional values, freedom, justice, liberty, equality, economic theory and social choice, impossibility theorem, political efficiency, political failure, redistribution of political power, choice of government type, democracy, political party, political agency models, models of representative democracy, Khelafa, Shura, |
| JEL: | H1 P4 P43 P48 Y80 Z12 Z18 |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72702&r=cse |
| By: | Zadonsky Georgy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, according to the data released by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, credit institutions extended 691,943 housing mortgage loans (HML) to the tune of Rb 1,147.339bn, which constituted 68.32% of the total amount of HML extended in 2014 and 65.04% in monetary terms. In the same period, 706,786 housing loans were originated totaling to Rb 1,168.222bn, which in quantity of loans comes to 66.71% and in monetary terms 64.14% of the extended loans. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, mortgage market, new housing construction |
| JEL: | R14 R21 R52 G21 K11 L74 L85 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-244&r=cse |
| By: | Héctor Pérez Saiz; Gabriel Xerri |
| Abstract: | The recent financial crisis has led to the development of new regulations to control risk in designated payment systems, and the implementation of new credit risk management standards is one of the key issues. In this paper, we study various credit risk management schemes for the Canadian retail payment system (ACSS) that are designed to cover the exposure of a defaulting member. We consider schemes that use a collateral pool calculated using a rolling time window. Our simulations show that the size of the window has a very significant effect on the average level of collateral and its variability day to day, creating an interesting trade-off. Collateral levels and variability may be important for ACSS participants because they could affect the opportunity costs of pledging collateral, and also the costs of managing it over time. Our results contribute to understanding the practical implementation of risk management schemes in the current and future generations of payment systems in Canada. |
| Keywords: | Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems |
| JEL: | G21 G23 C58 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:16-16&r=cse |
| By: | Yolanda Blasco-Martel (Universitat de Barcelona \cf0 Author-Email: yolandablasco@ub.edu) |
| Abstract: | Research on banking systems has token as a frame of reference the English banking system. Precisely because the English banking system was early, it had opportunities to explore certain control mechanisms that favored the extension of the bill of bank. One such mechanism was known as Palmer Rule, a rule stating that a well-managed bank should keep in its cash box one third of its responsibilities. This rule allowed maintaining the convertibility of notes, giving confidence to customers and encouraging the spread paper money. In Spain it has been discussed about the convertibility of the note in the last quarter of the nineteenth century. This work includes to the discussion the Palmer rule, crucial to understanding why the ticket of the Bank of Spain ceased to be convertible de facto in the late nineteenth century, although the inconvertibility is not legally established until 1946. |
| Keywords: | Palmer rule, Convertibility, Banking history, Banking rules, Spain |
| JEL: | N14 N24 E42 E58 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:1614&r=cse |
| By: | Peter Christoffersen; Bruno Feunou; Yoontae Jeon; Chayawat Ornthanalai |
| Abstract: | We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on return variance once we include market illiquidity as an economic variable in the model. This finding suggests that the relationship between variance and jump risk found in the literature is largely due to their common exposure to market liquidity risk. Our study highlights the importance of equity market frictions in index return dynamics and explains why prior studies find that crash risk increases with market uncertainty level. |
| Keywords: | Asset Pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability |
| JEL: | G01 G12 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-35&r=cse |
| By: | Fernando Rios-Avila; Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza |
| Abstract: | Although one would expect the unemployed to be the population most likely affected by immigration, most of the studies have concentrated on investigating the effects immigration has on the employed population. Little is known of the effects of immigration on labor market transitions out of unemployment. Using the basic monthly Current Population Survey from 2001–13 we match data for individuals who were interviewed in two consecutive months and identify workers who transition out of unemployment. We employ a multinomial model to examine the effects of immigration on the transition out of unemployment, using state-level immigration statistics. The results suggest that immigration does not affect the probabilities of native-born workers finding a job. Instead, we find that immigration is associated with smaller probabilities of remaining unemployed, but it is also associated with higher probabilities of workers leaving the labor force. This effect impacts mostly young and less educated people. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; Unemployment Duration; Labor Force Transition |
| JEL: | J1 J6 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_870&r=cse |
| By: | Hiroshi Fujiki (Faculty of Commerce, Chuo University (E-mail: fujiki@tamacc.chuo-u.ac.jp)); Charles M. Kahn (Department of Finance, College of Business, University of Illinois (E-mail: c-kahn@illinois.edu)) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the choice of collateral for use in repurchase agreement (repo) contracts based on an optimal contract model, and examine when regulatory restrictions are appropriate on the use of types of collateral in repo contracts, especially on the exemption to the automatic stay requirements. Our analyses imply that the crucial characteristics of the assets more desirable as collateral in an optimal contract are lower opportunity cost to create the collateral, lower hazard rate in the distribution of valuations of the collateral assets, and higher negative correlation of valuations between borrower and lender. We consider an externality based on divergence between market price and buyer fs surplus in a resale asset market, and analyze its effect on the welfare consequences of the exemption to the automatic stay requirements. We also consider the welfare consequences when national regulators evaluate the welfare benefits only from their national perspectives. |
| Keywords: | repo market, the exemption from automatic stays, collateral, cross-border financial transaction |
| JEL: | G15 G17 G18 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:16-e-08&r=cse |
| By: | Gianni De Fraja; Giovanni Facchini; John Gathergood |
| Abstract: | Using individual level data on the salary of all UK university professors, matched to results on the performance of academic departments from the 2014 Research Excellence Framework, we study the relationship between academic salaries and research performance. The UK higher education sector is particularly interesting because professorial salaries are unregulated and the outcome of the official research evaluation is a key financial concern of universities. To frame our analysis, we present a simple model of university pay determination, which shows that pay level and pay inequality in a department are positively related to performance. Our empirical results confirm these theoretical predictions; we also find that the pay-performance relationship is weaker for the more established and better paying universities. Our findings are also consistent with the idea that higher salaries have been used by departments to recruit academics more likely to improve their performance. |
| Keywords: | Higher education competition, research funding, university sector, salary in-equality |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notgep:16/13&r=cse |
| By: | Coen N. Teulings |
| Abstract: | It is well known that rational bubbles can be sustained in balanced growth path of a deterministic economy when the return to capital r is equal to the growth rate g. When there is a lack of stores of value, bubbles can implement an efficient allocation. This paper considers a world where r fluctuates over time due to shocks to the marginal productivity of capital. Then, bubbles further efficiency, though they cannot implement first best. While bubbles can only be sustained when r = g in a deterministic economy, r > g "on average" in a stochastic economy. Fiscal policy improves welfare by adding an extra asset. Where only the elderly contribute to shifting resources between investment and consumption in a bubbly economy, fiscal policy allows part of that burden to be shifted to the young. Contrary to common wisdom, trade in bubbly assets implements intergenerational transfers, while fiscal policy implements intragenerational transfers. Hence, while bubbles and fiscal policy are perfect substitutes in the deterministic economy, fiscal policy dominates bubbles in a stochastic economy. For plausible parameter values, a higher degree of dynamic inefficiency should lead to a higher sovereign debt. |
| Keywords: | rational bubbles, fiscal policy, Secular Stagnation |
| JEL: | E44 E62 |
| Date: | 2016–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1642&r=cse |
| By: | Bergoña Álvarez (Universidad de Vigo); Fernando Ramos Palencia (Universidad Pablo de Olavide) |
| Abstract: | Using the Ensenada Cadastre, a unique database on Castilian households circa 1750, we measure the effect of human capital on the structure of male labor earnings. Human capital is proxied by individual indicators of basic skills (literacy and numeracy) and of occupational skills. We employ a Mincerian regression approach and find that, on average, workers with greater skills earned more than otherwise similar workers with lesser skills. This finding is robust to the inclusion of additional controls for age, household composition, job characteristics, and place of residence. Estimated returns were larger for urban than for rural workers and were strongly heterogeneous across activity sectors. The richness of our data set reveals that higher-skilled workers not only reaped positive rewards in their main jobs but also were more likely to diversify and increase their earnings through “by-employment”. However, not all workers benefited to the same degree from increased human capital. Quantile regression analysis shows that earnings disparities between workers with different skills were much smaller at the lower than at the upper end of the earnings distribution. This evidence indicates that, in pre-industrial Castile, human capital contributed to earnings (and income) inequality. |
| Keywords: | human capital, pre-industrial Spain, skill premia, earnings inequality, quantile regression |
| JEL: | N33 J24 C21 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0099&r=cse |
| By: | Daniel Martin (Northwestern University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper I propose a general model of consumption for consumers who are inattentive to prices. The behavioral implications of this model can be summarized by a set of non-parametric and testable restrictions on demand functions that are simple and bear a resemblance to classical restrictions, but are novel in their construction. The empirical performance of these restrictions is assessed using consumption data from setting where there is substantial evidence of inattention to prices: grocery store purchases. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:379&r=cse |
| By: | Franck Portier (Toulouse School of Economics); Dana Galizia (Carleton University); Paul Beaudry (University of British Columbia) |
| Abstract: | In most modern macroeconomic models, the steady state (or balanced growth path) of the system is a local attractor in the sense that in the absence of shocks, the economy would converge to the steady state. In this paper we examine whether the times series behavior of macroeconomic aggregates (especially labor market aggregates) are in fact supportive of this locally stability view of macroeconomic dynamics or if they instead favor an alternative interpretation whereby the macro-economy may be better characterized as a locally unstable system with deterministic forces that support limit cycle behavior. To do this, we extend standard AR representations of the data to allow for smooth non-linearities using polynomials. Our main finding is that, even using a procedure which may have low power, the data provide considerable support to the view that the macro-economy may be locally unstable. An interesting finding is that the amount of non-linearity we detect in the data is rather minor but it is enough to alter the description of macroeconomic behavior. We also discuss the extent to which these two different views about the inherent dynamics of the macro-economy may matter for policy. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:321&r=cse |
| By: | Ritzen, Jo (IZA and Maastricht University); Haas, Jasmina (Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | The decrease in the rule of law and in control of corruption in several EU countries is a threat to the cohesion in the EU. Brexit has reinforced the centrifugal forces in the EU. To counter this threat the EU needs to engage in unpopular measures as they infringe on the Member States' sovereignty. We propose to introduce new measures in treaty revisions like the possibility of individuals to appeal to European courts to counter negative developments in governance in EU Member States. |
| Keywords: | governance, institutions, EU, economic growth |
| JEL: | D02 D72 D78 E02 I31 K20 K33 O43 O52 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izapps:pp112&r=cse |
| By: | Makate, Marshall; Makate, Clifton |
| Abstract: | Abstract: The effect of the quality of prenatal care on child mortality outcomes has received less attention in sub-Saharan Africa. This study sought to explore the consequence of the quality of prenatal care and its individual components on neonatal, infant and under-five mortality using the three most recent rounds of the nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey data for Zimbabwe conducted in 1999, 2005/06 and 2010/11. The model for the demand for the quality of prenatal care is estimated using an OLS regression while the child mortality models are estimated using standard probit regressions. Since infant mortality rates and access to quality prenatal care might differ by rural and urban residence, we estimate separate models for the overall sample, urban and rural samples. The results indicate that a one-unit increase in the quality of prenatal care lowers the risks of neonatal, infant and under-five mortality by nearly 36%, 29.31%, and 27.53% respectively for the overall sample. The probability of neonatal, infant and under-five mortality is lowered by about 41.67%, 35.18%, and 30.77% respectively for urban-born children following a one-unit increase in the quality of prenatal care. For the rural sample, we found that a one-unit increase in the quality of prenatal care lowers the risks of neonatal, infant and under-five mortality by nearly 34.61%, 27.12%, and 25.35% respectively. These findings are all statistically significant at the 1% significance level. Examining the effect of individual prenatal care components on child mortality revealed that blood pressure checks, information on pregnancy complications, iron supplementations, and tetanus vaccinations are all important in lowering child deaths. Overall, our results suggest the need for public health policy makers in Zimbabwe to focus on ensuring high-quality prenatal care especially in low-income and rural segments of the population to save Zimbabwe’s children. |
| Keywords: | Key words: Quality of prenatal care; neonatal, infant and under-five mortality; rural and urban communities; sub-Saharan Africa; Zimbabwe |
| JEL: | I1 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2016–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72799&r=cse |
| By: | Makate, Marshall; Makate, Clifton |
| Abstract: | Abstract: The effect of the quality of prenatal care on child mortality outcomes has received less attention in sub-Saharan Africa. This study sought to explore the consequence of the quality of prenatal care and its individual components on neonatal, infant and under-five mortality using the three most recent rounds of the nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey data for Zimbabwe conducted in 1999, 2005/06 and 2010/11. The model for the demand for the quality of prenatal care is estimated using an OLS regression while the child mortality models are estimated using standard probit regressions. Since infant mortality rates and access to quality prenatal care might differ by rural and urban residence, we estimate separate models for the overall sample, urban and rural samples. The results indicate that a one-unit increase in the quality of prenatal care lowers the risks of neonatal, infant and under-five mortality by nearly 36%, 29.31%, and 27.53% respectively for the overall sample. The probability of neonatal, infant and under-five mortality is lowered by about 41.67%, 35.18%, and 30.77% respectively for urban-born children following a one-unit increase in the quality of prenatal care. For the rural sample, we found that a one-unit increase in the quality of prenatal care lowers the risks of neonatal, infant and under-five mortality by nearly 34.61%, 27.12%, and 25.35% respectively. These findings are all statistically significant at the 1% significance level. Examining the effect of individual prenatal care components on child mortality revealed that blood pressure checks, information on pregnancy complications, iron supplementations, and tetanus vaccinations are all important in lowering child deaths. Overall, our results suggest the need for public health policy makers in Zimbabwe to focus on ensuring high-quality prenatal care especially in low-income and rural segments of the population to save Zimbabwe’s children. |
| Keywords: | Key words: Quality of prenatal care; neonatal, infant and under-five mortality; rural and urban communities; sub-Saharan Africa; Zimbabwe |
| JEL: | I1 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2016–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72805&r=cse |
| By: | Chakraborty, Tanika (Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur); Jayaraman, Rajshri (European School of Management and Technology (ESMT)) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of the world's largest school feeding program on children's learning outcomes. Staggered implementation across different states of a 2001 Indian Supreme Court Directive mandating the introduction of free school lunches in public primary schools generates plausibly exogenous variation in program exposure across different birth cohorts. We exploit this to estimate the effect of program exposure on math and reading test scores of primary school-aged children. We find that midday meals have a dramatic positive effect on learning achievement: children with up to 5 years of primary school exposure improve their test scores by approximately 10-20%. We further investigate various channels that may account for this improvement including enrollment and nutrition-learning effects, heterogeneous responses by socio-economic status, complementary schooling inputs, and intra-household redistribution. |
| Keywords: | school feeding, learning, midday meal, primary school education |
| JEL: | I21 I25 O12 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10086&r=cse |
| By: | Robert Baumann (Department of Economics, College of the Holy Cross); Bryan Engelhardt (Department of Economics, College of the Holy Cross); David L. Fuller (College of Business, University of Wisconsin - Oshkosh) |
| Abstract: | We show if a speculator can benefit from reducing a monopoly’s rents through short selling, then a speculator may take a short position in a monopoly, overcome the barriers to entry, and compete with the monopoly. The competition drives down the monopoly’s rents, and as a result, the short position becomes profitable and covers the cost of entry. If entry is impossible, then the speculator may coordinate and pay the firm’s counter-parties to stop trading with the monopoly rather than entering. Either way, increasing a speculator’s ability to short a firm’s rents results in a constraint on the monopoly and forces it to act more like a price taker. The mechanism is a market based approach to antitrust. |
| Keywords: | antitrust, monopoly, short selling |
| JEL: | L12 K21 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hcx:wpaper:1603&r=cse |
| By: | Chiswick, Barry R. (George Washington University) |
| Abstract: | This policy analysis discusses issues regarding the migration to Europe of large numbers of immigrants and refugees who, on arrival, do not know their host country's language. It reviews problems of economic integration into the labor market, the consequences of the formation of immigrant enclaves divorced from the host country labor market, and considers public policies to facilitate their linguistic and economic integration. |
| Keywords: | immigrants, refugees, language, enclaves, Europe, discrimination |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J24 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izapps:pp113&r=cse |
| By: | Karachurina Lilia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In January-November 2015 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, Russia’s positive migration balance moved down by around 20% and came to 214,900 persons. Negative migration balance resulted not so much from the contraction of the number of inflows as could be figured by the current Russia’s economic situation as from the 15 percent growth of outflows. Monthly/quarterly registration posted positive balance of the number of inflows solely in Q1, later there was balance and in Q4 there was an obvious decrease. Evidently, by the end of the year previously planned and finally implemented resettlements into Russia as well as statistical lag were “eroded” by the ruble devaluation and general economic recession. In the course of the year, the outflows from Russia demonstrated steady downward trend against the corresponding indices of 2014. As a result, Russia’s net migration starting with Q2 2015 was constantly less than compared to the same period of 2014. In November negative migration balance came to around 30 p.p. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, internal migration, long-term migration, external labor migration |
| JEL: | J61 J62 F22 J11 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-249&r=cse |
| By: | Sutter, Matthias (University of Cologne); Huber, Jürgen (University of Innsbruck); Kirchler, Michael (University of Innsbruck); Stefan, Matthias (University of Innsbruck) |
| Abstract: | Markets are ubiquitous in our daily life and, despite many imperfections, they are a great source of human welfare. Nevertheless, there is a heated recent debate on whether markets erode social responsibility and moral behavior. In fact, competitive pressure on markets may create strong incentives for unethical practices (like using child labor) to increase competitiveness. While markets have been considered as detrimental for moral behavior, it has turned out a challenging task to identify where moral behavior is reflected in a market. Recent work has suggested that falling prices in markets with externalities are an indicator of declining morals. Here we examine the relation between trading volume, prices and moral behavior by presenting an experimental study where we let buyers and sellers interact on a double auction market. In one set of treatments, concluding a trade has no externality; in the other set, there is a negative externality by voiding donations for a potentially life-saving measles vaccine to UNICEF. We find that moral behavior reveals itself in lower trading volume in markets with an externality, but that market prices are hardly different between markets with or without an externality. We also vary the number of buyers and sellers and show that prices depend mainly on the relative number of buyers and sellers, but not on the existence of an externality. Hence, the market forces of supply and demand work equally well in determining prices whether or not trading has an externality. |
| Keywords: | morals, markets, competition, experiment |
| JEL: | C92 D03 D62 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10105&r=cse |
| By: | Donaubauer, Julian (Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg); Dreger, Christian (DIW Berlin) |
| Abstract: | China's government is promoting the shift towards a consumption-based economy since a few years. The explicit goal to significantly raise the percentage of wages in the national household income is integral part of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15). The changes in the economic strategy are likely to affect the attractiveness of the country to foreign investors. In this paper, we raise the hypothesis that soaring wages negatively affect FDI inflows to China and alter the distribution of FDI over Chinese provinces. In addition, low-wage countries in the geographical surrounding might benefit from the changed direction of FDI inflows. By performing panel models with spatial effects for both Chinese provinces and developing ASEAN countries, regional dependencies are explicitly addressed. We provide strong and robust evidence that the wage increases change the distribution of FDI within China. In addition, we show that the changes in China's economic strategy improve the chances of its low-income neighbours to attract FDI. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment, Chinese economic transformation, spatial correlation |
| JEL: | F15 F21 F63 E22 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10097&r=cse |
| By: | Giovanni Barone-Adesi (University of Lugano - Swiss Finance Institute); Chiara Legnazzi (University of Lugano - Swiss Finance Institute); Antonietta Mira (Swiss Finance Institute, University of Lugano) |
| Abstract: | The focus of this article is the Pricing Kernel (PK), the building-block of asset pricing theory. In the classical framework the shape of the PK is monotonically decreasing in the stock price, nevertheless empirical evidence suggests that the PK is locally increasing in the interval around the 0% return and has an irregular behaviour in the tails of the distribution. We argue that these deviations, known as pricing kernel puzzle, derive from a dis-homogeneity between the physical and the risk neutral (RN) measure and can be corrected by embedding some forward looking information into the physical measure. Our proposed methodology combines the information from historical returns with that coming from the RN measure through a non-parametric Poisson-Dirichlet process. As a result the irregular behaviour of the PK in the tails of the distribution is reduced and the monotonicity is ensured in almost all cases. |
| Keywords: | Pricing Kernel, pricing kernel puzzle, Poisson-Dirichlet Process |
| JEL: | G13 G19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1614&r=cse |
| By: | Ost, Ben (University of Illinois at Chicago); Pan, Weixiang (University of Illinois at Chicago); Webber, Douglas A. (Temple University) |
| Abstract: | Analyzing how working students weather personal economic shocks is increasingly important as the fraction of college students working substantial hours has increased dramatically over the past few decades. Using administrative data on Ohio college students linked to matched firm-worker data on earnings, we examine how layoff affects the educational outcomes of working college students. Theoretically, layoff decreases the opportunity cost of college enrollment, but it could also make financing one's education more difficult, so the net effect is ambiguous. We find that layoff leads to a considerable reduction in the probability of employment while in school, but it has little impact on enrollment decisions at the extensive margin. On the intensive margin, we find that layoff leads to an increase in enrolled credits, consistent with the fact that the opportunity cost of college has decreased. |
| Keywords: | layoff, educational investment, working students |
| JEL: | I21 I23 J63 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10078&r=cse |
| By: | Francisco Martínez Sánchez (Universidad de Alicante) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the e¿ect of customizing a product on the ability of firms to tacitly collude on prices when some consumers are not informed about price. Following Bar-Isaac et al. (2014), we allow firms to be located inside the circle in the Salop model (1979). Our analysis shows that the e¿ect of product customization on the stability of collusion depends on the sensitivity of consumers’ utility to the degree of customization. We also obtain that collusion becomes harder to sustain when more consumers are informed about prices. From our welfare analysis, we conclude that the e¿ects of customizing depend on the sensitivity of consumers’ utility to the degree of customization. Finally, we find that transparency has no e¿ect on the equilibrium outcome under collusion. However, at the punishment stage, the e¿ect of transparency is positive on the consumer surplus and negative on the producer surplus. Since these two e¿ects cancel each other out, we obtain that having more informed consumers on prices does not a¿ect welfare. |
| Keywords: | Collusion; Customization; The Salop model; Transparency |
| JEL: | D40 L10 L40 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2016-03&r=cse |
| By: | Christensen, Julie (Amherst College); Onul, Darius (Amherst College); Singh, Prakarsh (Amherst College) |
| Abstract: | We reevaluate the hypothesis and empirical result that ethnic civil wars lead to higher skilled emigration (Bang and Mitra, 2013). We develop a simple conceptual framework that predicts contrasting results depending upon if the economy is assumed to be agglomerating in skilled labor or non-agglomerating with network effects. In the latter case, non-ethnic wars may lead to higher skilled emigration. A regression model that accounts for the time-varying definition of migration and includes important explanatory variables shows that non-ethnic wars as opposed to ethnic wars may lead to more skilled emigration. |
| Keywords: | civil war, emigration, brain drain, ethnic war, agglomeration, high-skilled migration |
| JEL: | J1 F2 O1 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10094&r=cse |
| By: | Michel A. Habib (University of Zurich; Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - Swiss Finance Institute); D. Bruce Johnsen (George Mason University - School of Law; PERC - Property and Environment Research Center) |
| Abstract: | Active fund managers implicitly promise to research profitable portfolio selection. But active management is an experience good subject to moral hazard. Investors cannot tell high from low quality up front and therefore fear manager shirking. We show how the parties mitigate the moral hazard by paying the manager a premium fee sufficiently high that the manager’s one-time gain from shirking is less than the capitalized value of the premium stream he earns from maintaining his promise to provide high quality. Premium advisory fees act as a quality-assuring bond. Our model has a number of revealing extensions and comparative statics. |
| Keywords: | Excessive fees, advisory fees, quality-assurance, open-access, closet indexing |
| JEL: | D23 D86 G23 L22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1616&r=cse |
| By: | Álvaro Zerda Sarmiento |
| Abstract: | Las conversaciones del gobierno Santos con la dirigencia de las FARC que arrancaron en 2012 partieron de una premisa: el modelo económico no se negocia. Con este punto grueso por fuera de la agenda, la hoja de ruta acordada contempló seis temas centrales de los cuales el referido al desarrollo agrario integral es el de mayor incidencia en el plano económico. No sobra tener en cuenta que el posible acuerdo tendrá impacto en sí sobre la economía en su conjunto, sobre lo cual varían las especulaciones entre un optimismo desaforado y un pesimismo derrotista. Este artículo se centra en examinar la relación que puede existir entre los acuerdos parciales firmados en La Habana sobre desarrollo agrario, el modelo económico imperante en el país y las medidas económicas que ha tomado el gobierno del presidente Santos en los últimos años. Al final se hace una reflexión sobre las necesidades de financiamiento para poner en marcha los acuerdos y la realidad de la economía colombiana en el momento. |
| Keywords: | Política económica, Acuerdos de paz, Desarrollo rural, Reforma agraria |
| JEL: | E61 E62 Q00 Q15 |
| Date: | 2016–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000178:014848&r=cse |
| By: | Andrea Morone (Università degli Studi di Bari, Italy & LEE-Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Simone Nuzzo (Dipartimento di Studi Aziendali e Giusprivatistici, Università degli Studi di Bari, Aldo Moro, Italy) |
| Abstract: | We investigate traders’ behaviour in an experimental asset market where uninformed agents cannot be sure about the presence of insiders. In this framework we compare two trading institutions: the continuous double auction and the call market. The purpose of this comparison is to test which of the two trading mechanisms performs better in promoting a convergence towards the efficient equilibrium price. In a framework where the presence of insiders is neither certain nor common knowledge, inspired by Plott and Sunder (1982) and Camerer and Weigelt (1991), we first test whether a discrete time mechanism of trading, like the call market, might be able to prevent the occurrence of information mirages and promote a greater level of efficiency when no inside information is in the market. Second, we also compare the efficiency of the two trading institutions during periods when insiders are present in the market. |
| Keywords: | Experimental; Experimental Markets, Market Efficiency, Information Mirages, Trading Institutions |
| JEL: | C91 D53 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2016/12&r=cse |
| By: | Alessandra, Michelangeli; Nicola, Pontarollo |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at assessing the contribution of ethnic minorities to the productivity of the main sectors of Italian provinces. To this end, we consider the first ten nationalities by numbers of regularised persons observed at the provincial level (NUTS-3) between 2003 and 2011. We use an empirical panel growth model with spatially augmented specifications, which allows to capture both the direct (marginal) and indirect (spillover) effects of each community on local productivity at the provincial level. Our findings show that two communities out of ten have a positive impact on economic performance of Italian provinces. Other foreign groups have significant effects only indirectly, meaning that these groups do not affect growth of provinces where they live, but the neighbouring provinces likely because of commuting. |
| Keywords: | productivity growth, specialisation, spatial econometrics, foreigners |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2016–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:349&r=cse |
| By: | Pestel, Nico (IZA); Schnabel, Reinhold (University of Duisburg-Essen); Siegloch, Sebastian (University of Mannheim); Sommer, Eric (IZA); Spermann, Alexander (University of Freiburg) |
| Abstract: | Eine steuerliche Entlastung der Mittelschicht durch eine Abflachung des Einkommensteuer-tarifs wird immer wieder von der Politik gefordert. Wir führen eine Mikrosimulation einer solchen Reform durch und analysieren die Effekte auf Fiskus, Beschäftigung und Ungleich-heit. Die zu erwartenden massiven Steuerausfälle machen flankierende Maßnahmen erforderlich. Unsere Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass es kaum politisch und rechtlich umsetz¬bare Reformen gibt, die den Aufkommensverlust wettmachen könnten und gleichzeitig die ursprüngliche Zielsetzung der Reform nicht gefährden würden. |
| Keywords: | Steuerreform, Einkommensteuertarif, Beschäftigungseffekte, Spitzensteuersatz, Mikrosimulation |
| JEL: | H24 C63 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izasps:sp86&r=cse |
| By: | Rüdiger Fahlenbrach (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - Swiss Finance Institute); Robert Prilmeier (Tulane University - A.B. Freeman School of Business); René M. Stulz (Ohio State University (OSU) - Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)) |
| Abstract: | From 1973 to 2014, the common stock of U.S. banks with loan growth in the top quartile of banks over a three-year period significantly underperforms the common stock of banks with loan growth in the bottom quartile over the next three years. The benchmark-adjusted cumulative difference in performance over three years exceeds twelve percentage points. The high growth banks also have significantly higher crash risk over the three-year period. This poor performance is explained by fast loan growth as asset growth separate from loan growth is not followed by poor performance. These banks reserve less for loan losses when their loans grow quickly than other banks. Subsequently, they have a lower return on assets and increase their loan loss reserves. The poorer performance of the fast growing banks is not explained by merger activity and loan growth through mergers is not accompanied by the same poor loan performance. The evidence is consistent with fast-growing banks, analysts, and investors failing to properly appreciate the extent to which the fast loan growth results from making riskier loans and failing to charge for these risks correctly. |
| Keywords: | Credit boom, loan growth, bank performance, bank returns, loan loss provisions |
| JEL: | G01 G12 G21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1624&r=cse |
| By: | Hetschko, Clemens; Schöb, Ronnie; Wolf, Tobias |
| Abstract: | Using specific panel data of German welfare benefit recipients, we investigate the non-pecuniary life satisfaction effects of in-work benefits. Our empirical strategy combines difference-in-difference designs with synthetic control groups to analyze transitions of workers between unemployment, regular employment and employment accompanied by welfare receipt. Working makes people generally better off than being unemployed, but employed welfare recipients do not reach the life satisfaction level of regular employees. This implies that welfare receipt entails non-compliance with the norm to make one´s own living. Our findings allow us to draw cautious conclusions on employment subsidies paid as welfare benefits. |
| Keywords: | life satisfaction,subsidized employment,unemployment,income support,in-work benefits,social norms |
| JEL: | I31 I38 J60 J68 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201615&r=cse |
| By: | Tidiane Ly (Univ Lyon, CNRS, GATE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the efficiency properties of tax competition between submetropolitan jurisdictions when capital, residents and workers are mobile, and both households and firms compete for local land markets. We analyze two decentralized equilibria: (1) with a local tax on residents and two separate local taxes on capital and land inputs, efficiency is achieved and the existence of a marginal fiscal cost due to residents’ mobility is revealed; (2) combination of the taxes on capital and land inputs into a single business property tax leads local authorities to charge inefficiently high taxation on capital. We show that capital mobility induces a reduction in the business land taxation and local public inputs are used to offset the distorting effects of the property tax, accounting for the distorting impact of workers’ mobility. |
| Keywords: | Tax competition, Mobility, Public goods, Public inputs |
| JEL: | H71 H72 R50 R51 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:1624&r=cse |
| By: | Tiziana Medda (University of Cagliari); Vittorio Pelligra (University of Cagliari); Tommaso Reggiani (LUMSA University) |
| Abstract: | One of the most common criticisms about the external validity of lab experiments in economics concerns the representativeness of participants usually considered in these studies. The ever-increasing number of experiments and the prevalent location of research centers in university campuses produced a peculiar category of subjects: Students with high level of laboratory experience built through repeated participations in experimental sessions. We investigate whether the experience accumulated in this way biases subjects’ behaviour in a set of simple games widely used to study social preferences (Dictator Game, Ultimatum Game, Trust Game, and Prisoner’s Dilemma Game). Our main finding shows that subjects with a high level of experience in lab experiments do not behave in a significantly different way from novices. |
| Keywords: | Experimental Methodology, External Validity, Experience, Lab Experiment |
| JEL: | D03 D83 C91 C92 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsa:wpaper:wpc09&r=cse |
| By: | S. Kuchuk-Iatsenko; Y. Mishura; Y. Munchak |
| Abstract: | The article is devoted to models of financial markets with stochastic volatility, which is defined by a functional of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process or Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process. We study the question of exact price of European option. The form of the density function of the random variable, which expresses the average of the volatility over time to maturity is established using Malliavin calculus.The result allows calculate the price of the option with respect to minimum martingale measure when the Wiener process driving the evolution of asset price and the Wiener process, which defines volatility, are uncorrelated. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1608.00230&r=cse |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a quantitative evaluation of the welfare effect of the introduction of proportional taxation in Bulgaria in 2008, an effect that operates through the grey economy channel. Using a general-equilibrium model, augmented with informal sector, a computational experiment is performed to evaluate the welfare gain from the adoption of proportional taxation. The lower effective tax burden in the new tax regime produces a relocation of people into the official sector, stimulates investment, and increases output and consumption. Finally, under the flat tax regime, the size of the informal sector is smaller, and quantitatively consistent with OECD (2009) and European Commission (2012) figures. |
| Keywords: | taxation,informal sector |
| JEL: | D91 J46 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:144528&r=cse |
| By: | Naoshi Tsuchida (Deputy Director and Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies (currently Financial System and Bank Examination Department), Bank of Japan (E-mail: naoshi.tsuchida@boj.or.jp)); Toshiaki Watanabe (Professor, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University; Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: watanabe@ier.hit-u.ac.jp)); Toshinao Yoshiba (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: toshinao.yoshiba@boj.or.jp)) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the intraday market liquidity of the Japanese government bond (JGB) futures. First, we overview the movement of various market liquidity indicators during the past decade, classifying them into four categories: tightness, depth, resiliency, and volume. Second, using the data under the current trade time, we extract their intraday pattern and the autocorrelation. Third, we find that the announcement of economic indicator has a negative effect on these liquidity indicators while the monetary policy announcement and the surprise of economic indicator have a positive effect on volume indicators. Fourth, we show that the shock persistence in liquidity indicators rises around April 2013, and the increased persistence remains in some liquidity indicators even several months after April 2013. |
| Keywords: | Japanese government bond (JGB), market liquidity, liquidity indicator, transaction data |
| JEL: | C32 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:16-e-07&r=cse |
| By: | Abdala Rioja, Yamile E |
| Abstract: | In recent years, there has been the common shared belief that international investors and other buyers of real estate in cash-only transactions have exercised an upward pressure in property prices in the city of San Francisco in California, the consequence being the crowding-out on buyers requiring access to credit. This paper examines real estate prices and cash sales for the period beginning after the last recession to the year 2015, as well as other significant drivers since the year 1998. The results suggest a contradiction to the cash-only claim, at the same time that they reveal a strong relationship between the technology sector and the real estate prices in the city. |
| Keywords: | Real Estate, Mortgage, San Francisco Tech Pulse, Business Cycles, Interest Rates |
| JEL: | E32 E4 R31 |
| Date: | 2016–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72737&r=cse |
| By: | Nikolova, Milena (IZA) |
| Abstract: | Subjective well-being (SWB) indicators, such as positive and negative emotions, life evaluations, and assessments of having purpose and meaning and life are increasingly used alongside income, employment, and consumption measures to provide a more comprehensive view of human progress. SWB measures have several advantages but also challenges which development scholars and practitioners need to carefully consider before introducing such metrics in the policy arena. This article provides an overview of the SWB approach and offers insights into whether and how SWB measures can inform development theory and practice. |
| Keywords: | development policy, subjective well-being, happiness, measurement |
| JEL: | I31 O10 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10088&r=cse |
| By: | Ben Jann |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the use of -webdoc- for creating HTML or Markdown documents from within Stata. The -webdoc- command provides a way to embed HTML or Markdown code directly in a do-file and to automate the integration of results from Stata in the final document. The command can be used, for example, to create a webpage documenting your data analysis, including all Stata output and graphs. More generally, the command can be used to create and maintain a website that contains results computed by Stata. |
| Keywords: | Stata, webdoc, HTML, Markdown, weaving, Stata output, Stata log, reproducible research |
| JEL: | C87 C88 |
| Date: | 2016–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bss:wpaper:22&r=cse |
| By: | Uzun Vasily (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Shagaida Natalia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Gataulina Ekaterina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Yanbykh Renata (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | In 2015 the war of sanctions and the shutting down of access to Russian food markets for countries included in the sanction list[1] created favourable conditions for domestic farm producers. The limiting factor was the drop of ruble exchange rate that dramatically lifted prices for many farm inputs, both imported (hybrid seeds, pesticides, breeder stock, etc.) and exported (fertilizers, fuels). Therefore, there were fears that farmers would fail to benefit from the shutting down of markets and to increase domestic agricultural output. However, farm producers did not reduce areas sown in all major crops as compared with the previous year. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, import substitution, food embargo, sanctions, counter sanctions |
| JEL: | Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-252&r=cse |
| By: | Anna L. Christensen; Dana M. Petersen; Rachel A. Burton; Vanessa C. Forsberg; Kelly J. Devers |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study was to describe factors that influence the ability of state Medicaid agencies to report the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ (CMS) core set of children’s health care quality measures (Child Core Set). |
| Keywords: | Quality measures , Medicaid , CHIPRA , Case study , Multiple-case study |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:335300539cde4012aa7daab00b268e2e&r=cse |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the business cycle in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during the 1993-2005 period. The paper aims at deepening the understanding of the nature of output fluctuations. The neoclassical approach will be employed, much in the spirit of the Real Business Cycle (RBC) literature, which gives a general equilibrium picture of the transition process. The model used in this paper follows the methodology of King, Plosser and Rebelo (1988). Both the model and data series show that the major drop in output was due to productivity. In addition, the timing of the banking reforms coincides with the improvement of economic performance. This is a strong indication that banking regulations in place were crucial for the output performance throughout the period in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries, a finding that has important implications for economic policy. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles,productivity |
| JEL: | C68 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:144531&r=cse |
| By: | Bozhechkova Alexandra (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Trunin Pavel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kiyutsevskaya Anna (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, the Bank of Russia faced global challenges while implementing measures as part of its monetary policy. The economic situation in 2015 was marked by the following: Western sanctions and Russia’s countersanctions remained in effect, prices of Russia’s key export commodities continued to fall, economic agents’ expectations for high inflation remained intact. The sweeping depreciation of the Russian ruble in late 2014/early 2015 resulted in an inflation shock which kept the year-end inflation at high level: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 12.9% at the 2015 year-end, much higher than the 2017 mid-term target level (4%) set forth in the central bank’s Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy for 2015–2017. In its official 2015 forecast, Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development predicted inflation will not move beyond 6.3% in late 2014/early 2015, and Russia’s central bank expected it to stay at 8.2–8.7% under the baseline scenario and 9.3–9.8% under the risk scenario. At the same time, the Bank of Russia cut its key rate gradually from 17% in January down to 11% in December 2015 as inflation slowed down over the course of the year. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, monetary policy, money market, exchange rate, INFLATION, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS |
| JEL: | E31 E43 E44 E51 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-261&r=cse |
| By: | Akitoshi Muramoto (Institute of Intellectual Property, Foundation for Intellectual Property); Ryuji Sano (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University) |
| Abstract: | We consider sequential second-price auctions in which heterogeneous objects are sold to bidders with unit demand and a single dimensional type. We show that a symmetric increasing equilibrium exists if objects are ordered in terms of dispersiveness of value distributions. Equilibrium price declines when objects are equivalent on average and additional conditions hold. |
| Keywords: | sequential auctions, declining price anomaly, dispersiveness |
| JEL: | D44 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:945&r=cse |
| By: | Paweł Pońsko; Bartosz Rybaczyk |
| Abstract: | In this note we describe, in substantial detail, the methodology behind the construction of NBP’s fan chart. This note is meant to help the readers interpret information contained in the mid-term projection, understand the differences in the predicted uncertainty between the projection rounds, and the usefulness of the projection for the monetary policy conduct. We describe the process which leads to the final projection, the methodology of estimation of the variance of the final forecast probability distribution, the method used for quantifying asymmetry of the fan chart and the role the two-piece normal distribution plays in it. Finally, we describe the analysis of the changes in the fan charts between the projection rounds and explain how the narrative associated with the projection is consistent with its assessment of risk. |
| Keywords: | Projection, balance of risk, variance, probability distribution, fan chart |
| JEL: | E31 E37 E59 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:241&r=cse |
| By: | Haroon Bhorat; Tara Caetano; Benjamin Jourdan; Ravi Kanbur; Christopher Rooney; Benjamin Stanwix; Ingrid Woolard (University of Cape Town; Director and Professor) |
| Abstract: | Part I was completed by the DPRU and is a quantitative analysis of the feasibility of a national minimum wage for South Africa. The DPRU was commissioned by the Department of Labour to provide an analytical and empirical rubric, with which a more informed and nuanced decision could be taken around the promulgation of a NMW for South Africa. In summary, the report recommends that the South African Government consider introducing a NMW to address low wages. However, we argue that critical attention must be given to the design and implementation of the policy so that it achieves the goal of protecting workers, minimizes the potential negative consequences on employment, and ultimately succeeds in improving levels of compliance with legislated wages. Part II was completed by the CSDA and is a qualitative analysis that investigates how a national minimum wage might affect young people’s labour market outcomes in South Africa. |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:201601&r=cse |
| By: | Giulia Bettin (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali, MoFiR); Riccardo Lucchetti (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali); Claudia Pigini (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali) |
| Abstract: | The empirical modelling of remitting behaviour has been the object of a considerable amount of micro-level literature. The increasing availability of panel datasets makes it possible to explore the persistence in transfer decisions as a result of intertemporal choices, that may be consistent with several motivations to remit. Building a dynamic model with panel data poses the additional problem of dealing properly with permanent unobserved heterogeneity; moreover, the specific censored nature of international transfers has to be accounted for as well. In this paper, we propose a dynamic, random-effects double hurdle model for remittances: we combine the Maximum Likelihood estimator of the traditional double hurdle model for cross-section data (Jones, 1989) with the approach put forward by Heckman (1981b) for dealing with state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in a non-linear setting. Our empirical evidence based on the German SOEP dataset suggests that there is significant state dependence in remitting behaviour consistent with migrants. intertemporal allocation of savings; at the same time, transaction costs are likely to affect the steadiness of transfers over time. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Remittances, State dependence, Double hurdle, Intertemporal choices |
| JEL: | F22 F24 C23 C34 C35 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wmofir:127&r=cse |
| By: | Böckers, Veit; Hardorp, Lilian; Haucap, Justus; Heimeshoff, Ulrich; Gösser, Niklas; Thorwarth, Susanne |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Beitrag ermittelt das aktuelle Ausmaß kommunaler Betätigung in der Abfallwirtschaft auf Basis von 9.248 deutschen Gemeinden und Städten. Vor allem in Großstädten mit über 100.000 Einwohnern haben Kommunen fast vollständig die Restmüllsammlung übernommen. Insgesamt wird über alle Kommunen zwar nur für knapp 34 % der Gebiete die Erfassung durch kommunale Unternehmen vorgenommen. Gewichtet man die jeweiligen Gebiete jedoch mit der Einwohneranzahl, entfällt insgesamt knapp 62 % der Restmüllerfassung auf kommunale Entsorgungsunternehmen. In Großstädten über 100.000 Einwohner haben sich kommunale Unternehmen sogar 94 % des Marktes gesichert. Private Entsorger dominieren hingegen vor allem im ländlichen Raum. Diese Befunde deuten auf eine Rosinenpickerei der Kommunen hin, die sich insbesondere die dicht besiedelten profitablen Gebiete herausgesucht haben. Im Vergleich zu bisher verfügbaren Statistiken über kommunale Aktivitäten in der Abfallwirtschaft (vgl. etwa Monopolkommission, 2014) zeigt sich eine weitere Zunahme der Rekommunalisierung. Sollten die Wettbewerbsbedingungen nunmehr auch in anderen Bereichen der Abfallwirtschaft, wie etwa bei Wertstoffen, zugunsten der Kommunen verzerrt werden, ist hier mit ähnlichen Rekommunalisierungstendenzen und einer Verdrängung privater Wettbewerber zu rechnen. |
| Keywords: | Abfallwirtschaft,Entsorgungswirtschaft,Wertstoffgesetz,Rekommunalisierung |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diceop:85&r=cse |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has issued its Sustainability Report every 2 years since 2007. ADB’s Sustainability Reports allow our stakeholders to assess our operational and organizational sustainability performance and provide them with a single point of reference to understand our commitment to sustainable development. For 2016, this annual Sustainability Report highlights the integration of sustainability into ADB’s investments and organizational activities during 2015. A separate detailed Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) index contains the responses of ADB to standard and specific disclosures in the GRI’s G4 Sustainability Reporting Guidelines and G4 Financial Services Sector Guidelines. The Sustainability Report and detailed GRI Index are prepared in accordance with the G4 Sustainability Reporting Guidelines and are available online at www.adb.org/documents/asian-development- bank-sustainability-report-2016. |
| Keywords: | sustainability report, ADB sustainability report, corporate sustainability report, global reporting initiative, GRI, poverty reduction, inclusive economic growth, inclusive green growth, environmental sustainability, sustainable infrastructure, governance, transparency, communication, stakeholder engagement, ethics, integrity, safeguards, grievance mechanism, poverty and social assessment, corporate social responsibility, CSR, workforce, benefits, careers, talent management, diversity, green buildings, LEED Gold certification, health and safety management, OHSAS 18001 certification, environment management, ISO 14001 certification, energy management, ISO 50001 certification, electricity consumption, GHG inventory, resource use, resource conservation, sustainable annual meeting, supply chain, green supply chain, community involvement, 2016 sustainability report, 2016 corporate sustainability report |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt167995-2&r=cse |
| By: | EL FAIZ, Zakaria; ZIANI, Manal |
| Abstract: | In an uncertain economic environment, long-term interest rates appear to be highly volatile and their sensitivity towards short-term interest rates appears to be still ambiguous. The aim of this work is to analyze this relationship, and to evaluate the impact of short-term interest rate on long-term interest rate in Morocco. We used a New Keynesian Model augmented with the term structure of interest rates, estimated with Bayesian methods on quarterly data for the period 2004-2015. The result shows that long-term interest rate increases in response to an increase in short term interest rate, which signifies that monetary policy in Morocco has the ability to influence long-term interest rates. |
| Keywords: | NKM Model, Monetary Policy, long-term interest rates, term structure |
| JEL: | E1 E12 E30 E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72817&r=cse |
| By: | Isaac Baley; Laura Veldkamp; Michael Waugh |
| Abstract: | How do information frictions affect international prices and trade? In a standard, two-country Armingtonmodel of trade, information frictions impede the coordination of exporting behavior across countries. Because the terms of trade depend on relative exports, less coordination leads to more volatile terms of trade. Volatility in the terms of trade has the potential to reduce the level of trade by making trade more risky, but it also has the potential to increase the level of trade by increasing the expected terms of trade. We derive general conditions on preferences as to which of these forces—the increase in risk or increase in return—dominate. With CES preferences, as long as goods are not too substitutable, information frictions impede trade. With empirically plausible elasticities of substitution, information frictions facilitate trade. |
| Keywords: | information asymmetry, globalization, risk sharing, international trade |
| JEL: | D5 D8 D9 F4 F6 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1529&r=cse |
| By: | Isaac Baley; Laura Veldkamp; Michael Waugh |
| Abstract: | How do information frictions affect international prices and trade? In a standard, two-country Armingtonmodel of trade, information frictions impede the coordination of exporting behavior across countries. Because the terms of trade depend on relative exports, less coordination leads to more volatile terms of trade. Volatility in the terms of trade has the potential to reduce the level of trade by making trade more risky, but it also has the potential to increase the level of trade by increasing the expected terms of trade. We derive general conditions on preferences as to which of these forces—the increase in risk or increase in return—dominate. With CES preferences, as long as goods are not too substitutable, information frictions impede trade. With empirically plausible elasticities of substitution, information frictions facilitate trade. |
| Keywords: | information asymmetry, globalization, risk sharing, international trade |
| JEL: | D5 D8 D9 F4 F6 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:917&r=cse |
| By: | Ivlevs, Artjoms (University of the West of England, Bristol) |
| Abstract: | While there has been a growing interest in the relationship between perceived tourism impacts and residents' quality of life, little is known about how residents' well-being is affected by actual tourist arrivals. This paper studies the effect of international tourist arrivals on the subjective well-being – happiness and life satisfaction – of residents in European countries. Data come from the six waves of the European Social Survey, conducted in 32 countries in 2002-2013. The results suggest that tourist arrivals reduce residents' life satisfaction. This negative relationship tends to be more pronounced in countries where tourism intensity is relatively high, as well as among people living in rural areas. In addition, tourist arrivals have a greater negative relationship with the evaluative component of subjective well-being (life satisfaction) than its affective component (happiness). |
| Keywords: | life satisfaction, happiness, tourist arrivals, Europe |
| JEL: | L83 Z3 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10087&r=cse |
| By: | Diana Ioana POPA (National Institute of Statistics, Romania); Nicoleta CARAGEA (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | Employment statistics are key indicators in analyzing the developments in labor markets, which can be used to study the level of economic and social development of a country. In this research study descriptive statistics tools were applied to study the patterns of employment in Romania. The result offers an overview over the specifics of employment in this country. Data source used in this study is the Labor Force Survey, carried out by the National Institute of Statistics Romania. This research will contribute in describing the economic and social life of Romania, as well as a comparison tool in regard with other countries of the European Union. |
| Keywords: | employment, patterns, labor force |
| JEL: | A13 C18 J01 J21 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eub:wpaper:2016-05&r=cse |
| By: | Dorin JULA (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy and Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest); Nicoleta JULA ("Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | In the paper, we use Kaya identity and the cointegration relationship between the dynamics of population, economic growth, energy intensity of gross domestic product and carbon intensity of energy produced in order to estimate, on long-run, the greenhouse gas emissions. |
| Keywords: | Kaya identity, greenhouse gas emissions, panel data model |
| JEL: | C33 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eub:wpaper:2016-01&r=cse |
| By: | Drichoutis, Andreas C.; Klonaris, Stathis; Papoutsi, Georgia |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the claim that bottle size formats signal quality changes, using a controlled laboratory experiment where we simultaneously auctioned two different sweet wines: a pomegranate wine and a grape wine. We varied on a between subjects basis the size of the bottle, from 500ml to 750ml, but kept the wine content of the bottle constant across bottle size formats. We also explored in a within subjects design the effect of expectations for the wines, blind tasting and information on willingness to pay. For the grape wine we find evidence consistent with diminishing marginal utility while for the pomegranate wine we find a premium for the smaller bottle size which is consistent with changes in perceived scarcity of the wine. We also find that information is adequate in offsetting the negative effect from the tasting treatment. |
| Keywords: | second price auction; laboratory experiment; wine; sensory analysis; willingness to pay; bottle size effect |
| JEL: | C23 C24 C91 D12 M31 |
| Date: | 2016–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72748&r=cse |
| By: | Giovanni Ferri (LUMSA University); Pierluigi Murro (LUMSA University) |
| Abstract: | The first wave of the global financial crisis – emanating from the US subprime debacle and the bankruptcy of Lehman – hit Europe in the last part of 2008 and through 2009. Coupled with it was the Great Trade Collapse (GTC), whereby trade crumpled intensely. With banks in a tailspin, credit rationing intensified – as measured in various different ways – particularly for the small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). The extent of such retrenchment in the supply of credit could reflect not only the worsened general condition of the European banks but also vary at the micro level depending on the lending technologies being used in the firm-main bank rapport. Using the EFIGE database, we try to assess the extent to which differences in the lending technologies affect export and foreign activities in seven EU countries (Austria, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Spain and the UK). |
| Keywords: | Bank-Firm Relationships, Lending Technologies, Trade. |
| JEL: | G21 D82 F10 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsa:wpaper:wpc10&r=cse |
| By: | Mamedov Arseny (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Fomina Elena (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Belev Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, the general government increased their budget revenues in absolute terms by Rb 123bn from 2014, however the revenues dropped by 0.9 percentage points of GDP and by 13% in real terms (including CPI). The general government increased their budget expenditure both in nominal terms and as a percentage of GDP by 1.5 percentage points of GDP, whereas expenditure in real terms were cut by 7% over values seen in 2014. As a result, the general government ran their budget with a deficit of 3.5% of GDP (the 2014 budget deficit was 1.1% of GDP). Note that the 2015 deficit was many times the value recorded in 2013–2014, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP, whereas a surplus was recorded in 2011–2012. Thus, in 2015 Russia’s budget system saw its balance deteriorate seriously over values seen in 2011–2014. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, budget system, tax revenues, budget parameters |
| JEL: | H61 H62 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-260&r=cse |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | This paper is a first attempt to provide a quantitative evaluation of the welfare gains resulting from the introduction of flat income taxation in Bulgaria in 2008. Using a calibrated micro-founded endogenous growth model with physical and human capital accumulation to Bulgarian data, a computational experiment is performed to quantify the dynamic welfare effect of progressive income taxation vis-a-vis flat income taxation. The model demonstrates that significant welfare gains, measured in terms of per-period consumption, can be realized with the introduction of flat income taxation. In addition, these welfare gains increase proportionally with the length of the time horizon considered. Finally, sensitivity analysis was performed to demonstrate that the results obtained are robust. |
| Keywords: | taxation,endogenous growth,human capital,welfare gains |
| JEL: | D91 O41 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:144527&r=cse |
| By: | Albarrán, Irene; Marín, J. Miguel; Alonso, Pablo J.; Benchimol, A. |
| Abstract: | Forecasting mortality rates has become a key task for all who are concerned with payments for non-active people, such as Social Security or life insurance firms managers. The non-ending process of reduction in the mortality rates is forcing to continuously improve the models used to project these variables. Traditionally, actuaries have selected just one model, supposing that this model were able to generate the observed data. Most times the results have driven to a set of questionable decisions linked to those projections. This way to act does not consider the model uncertainty when selecting a specific one. This drawback can be reduced through model assembling. This technique is based on using the results of a set of models in order to get better results. In this paper we introduce two approaches to ensemble models: a classical one, based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC), and a Bayesian model averaging method. The data are referred to a Spanish male population and they have been obtained from the Human Mortality Database. We have used four of the most widespread models to forecast mortality rates (Lee-Carter, Renshaw-Haberman, Cairns-Blake-Dowd and its generalization for including cohort effects) together with their respective Bayesian specifications. The results suggest that using assembling models techniques gets more accurate predictions than those with the individual models. |
| Keywords: | Renshaw-Haberman model; projected life tables; longevity risk; Lee-Carter model; Cairns-Blake-Dowd model; bootstrap; Bayesian model averaging; AIC model averaging |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:23434&r=cse |
| By: | Martin, Albert |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Beitrag berichtet über empirische Ergebnisse zur Arbeitszufriedenheit und zu den Arbeitsbedingungen von ausländischen Arbeitnehmern. Er stützt sich dabei auf die Daten des Sozioökonomischen Panels. Betrachtet werden Personen, die aus den sogenannten Gastarbeiterländern Türkei, Italien, Spanien, Griechenland und dem ehemaligen Jugoslawien stammen. Außerdem erfolgt eine Eingrenzung auf die Gruppe der Arbeiter. Umfängliche Untersuchungen zur Arbeitssituation der ausländischen Arbeitnehmer wurden insbesondere in den 1970er Jahren angestellt, so auch im Mannheim-Paderborner Ausländerprojekt, auf dessen Hauptergebnisse im vorliegenden Beitrag ebenfalls kurz eingegangen wird. Daran anknüpfend geht es im Weiteren um die Frage, ob sich in den letzten 30 Jahren die Arbeitsbedingungen und der Arbeitszufriedenheit der ausländischen Arbeiter merklich verändert haben. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:lueimf:52&r=cse |
| By: | Robert Garlick; Kate Orkin; Simon Quinn |
| Abstract: | High-frequency data is useful to measure volatility, reduce recall bias, and measure dynamic treatment effects. We conduct the first experimental evaluation of high-frequency phone surveys in a developing country or with microenterprises. We randomly assign microenterprise owners to monthly in-person, weekly inperson, or weekly phone interviews. We find high-frequency phone surveys are useful and accurate. Phone and in-person surveys yield similar measurements, with few large or significant differences in reported outcome means or distributions. Neither interview frequency nor medium affects reported outcomes in a common in-person endline. Phone surveys reduce costs without increasing permanent attrition from the panel. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2016-14&r=cse |
| By: | Pischke, Jörn-Steffen (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Many economists suspect that downward nominal wage rigidities in ongoing labor contracts are an important source of employment fluctuations over the business cycle but there is little direct empirical evidence on this conjecture. This paper compares three occupations in the housing sector with very different wage setting institutions, real estate agents, architects, and construction workers. I study the wage and employment responses of these occupations to the housing cycle, a proxy for labor demand shocks to the industry. The employment of real estate agents, whose pay is far more flexible than the other occupations, indeed reacts less to the cycle than employment in the other occupations. However, unless labor demand elasticities are large, the estimates do not suggest that the level of wage flexibility enjoyed by real estate agents would buffer employment fluctuations in response to demand shocks by more than 10 to 20 percent compared to completely rigid wages. |
| Keywords: | wage setting, wage rigidity, commissions, real estate agents, architects, construction workers |
| JEL: | E24 J20 J44 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10066&r=cse |
| By: | Pischke, Jörn-Steffen |
| Abstract: | Many economists suspect that downward nominal wage rigidities in ongoing labor contracts are an important source of employment fluctuations over the business cycle but there is little direct empirical evidence on this conjecture. This paper compares three occupations in the housing sector with very different wage setting institutions, real estate agents, architects, and construction workers. I study the wage and employment responses of these occupations to the housing cycle, a proxy for labor demand shocks to the industry. The employment of real estate agents, whose pay is far more flexible than the other occupations, indeed reacts less to the cycle than employment in the other occupations. However, unless labor demand elasticities are large, the estimates do not suggest that the level of wage flexibility enjoyed by real estate agents would buffer employment fluctuations in response to demand shocks by more than 10 to 20 percent compared to completely rigid wages. |
| Keywords: | architects; commissions; construction workers; real estate agents; wage rigidity; Wage setting |
| JEL: | E24 J20 J44 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11418&r=cse |
| By: | Marie Masclet de Barbarin (CEFF - Centre d'Etudes Fiscales et Financières - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | La protection des droits des contribuables face à la mise en œuvre des prérogatives de l'administration fiscale constitue une thématique qui a toujours été chère au professeur Louit. Il m'a conduit à m'y intéresser dès les premiers temps de l'étude du sujet de thèse qu'il m'avait alors confié sur le contentieux du recouvrement de l'impôt. L'exercice du pouvoir de l'administration fiscale dans la mise en œuvre du recouvrement forcé et le caractère particulièrement sévère du régime contentieux qui en découle traduit incontestablement un déséquilibre que l'impérieuse nécessité de recouvrer l'impôt ne peut { lui seul suffire à justifier. Cette situation se retrouve bien souvent en matière fiscale. Elle prend sa source au sein même des règles de procédure tant contentieuse que non contentieuses, avec comme postulat légitime l'affirmation implicite selon laquelle le contribuable n'est pas un administré comme un autre. Lorsque néanmoins ces déséquilibres apparaissent comme trop flagrants ou lorsqu'ils sont dénoncés un peu plus bruyamment que d'ordinaire par les contribuables, par leurs conseils ou par la communauté scientifique, force est de constater que le juge est bien souvent plus prompt que le législateur à œuvrer en faveur du respect d'un seuil minimal de garanties pour le contribuable 1. Le Conseil d'état vient une fois encore d'en apporter la preuve s'agissant de la limitation du droit de reprise de l'administration fiscale. |
| Keywords: | droits du contribuable, administration fiscale,droit fiscal, prescription |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01309528&r=cse |
| By: | Fei Fang; Yiwei Sun; Konstantinos Spiliopoulos |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to study organized flocking behavior and systemic risk in heterogeneous mean-field interacting diffusions. We illustrate in a number of case studies the effect of heterogeneity in the behavior of systemic risk in the system. We also investigate the effect of heterogeneity on the "flocking behavior" of different agents, i.e., when agents with different dynamics end up behaving the same way in path space and follow closely the mean behavior of the system. Using Laplace asymptotics, we derive an asymptotic formula for the tail of the loss distribution as the number of agents grows to infinity. This characterizes the tail of the loss distribution and the effect of the heterogeneity of the network on the tail loss probability. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1607.08287&r=cse |
| By: | Foreman-Peck, James (Cardiff Business School); Zhou, Peng (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | Households may migrate between jurisdictions to secure preferred mixes of collectively sup-plied services and taxation. But devolution of taxes to sub-national jurisdictions could reduce expected tax revenue if some move to lower tax regimes, constraining devolved government policy. This paper develops an indirect approach to establish lower bound tax revenue impacts of possible tax changes by devolved governments. We estimate and aggregate migration responses to existing tax differentials between smaller, component administrative areas of the devolved jurisdictions. Because such existing taxes may have different bases from proposed devolved taxes, appropriate corrections are made in a model of the devolved economy. This model also establishes how the tax base and therefore the tax yield of the devolved economy, as well as the output per capita, would be changed by implementing different tax rates, given the migration responses estimated. The model is used to assess the fiscal possibilities for Wales created by the UK Government of Wales Act 2014. |
| Keywords: | Migration; Fiscal Decentralisation; Tax Revenue |
| JEL: | R23 J61 H11 H22 H71 H72 H77 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2016/7&r=cse |
| By: | Van de Kassteele, Jan; Lee, Dae-Jin; Durbán, María; Ayma Anza, Diego Armando |
| Abstract: | Epidemiological data are frequently recorded at coarse spatio-temporal resolutions. The aggregation process is done for several reasons: to protect confidential patients' information, to compare with other datasets at a coarser resolution than the original, or to summarize data in a compact manner. However, we lose detailed patterns that follow the original data, which can be of interest for researchers and public health officials. In this paper we propose the use of the penalized composite link model (Eilers, 2007), together with its mixed model representation, to estimate the underlying trend behind grouped data at a finer spatio-temporal resolution. Also, this model allows the incorporation of fine-scale population into the estimation procedure. We assume the underlying trend is smooth across space and time. The mixed model representation enables the use of sophisticated algorithms such as the SAP algorithm of RodríguezÁlvarez et al. (2015) for fast estimation of the amount of smoothness. We illustrate our proposal with the analysis of data obtained during the largest outbreak of Q fever in the Netherlands. |
| Keywords: | Spatio-temporal disaggregation; SAP algorithm; Q fever incidence; Penalized composite link models |
| Date: | 2016–07–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:23448&r=cse |
| By: | Carlos Thomas (Banco de España); Galo Nuño (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the trade-o¤s between price stability and sovereign debt sustainability, in a small-open-economy model where the government issues nominal debt without committing not to default or inflate. Inflation allows to absorb the e¤ect of aggregate shocks on the debt ratio, which improves sovereign debt sustainability. But the government incurs an ‘inflationary bias’: it creates (costly) inflation even when default is distant. For plausible calibrations, we find that abandoning the ability to inflate debt away raises welfare, even when the economy is close to default: the benefits from eliminating the inflationary bias dominate the costs from losing inflation’s debt-stabilizing role. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:329&r=cse |
| By: | Judith Diers; Prerna Banati; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti |
| Abstract: | Advocacy and action for adolescents have been hampered by the lack of a concrete results framework that can be used to describe the state of the world’s adolescents and serve as a basis for goals and targets. In order to fill this gap, UNICEF, in collaboration with key partners, is facilitating the development of an outcome-based framework that incorporates the key dimensions of an adolescent’s life and a proposed set of globally comparable indicators that will provide a common platform to track the progress of adolescent development and well-being. The domains that have been selected for measurement are: health and well-being, education and learning, safety and protection, participation, transition to work. |
| Keywords: | adolescents; employment policy; health programmes; research; |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inores:inores855&r=cse |
| By: | Lenka Stastna (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes local political cycle in Czech municipalities over the period between 1997 and 2013. We apply the system GMM and the difference GMM estimators to identify distortion in current and capital expenditures per capita in electoral and pre-electoral years, while focusing on various spending groups (infrastructure, leisure, housing, education, etc.). We also test specific effects of local governments' characteristics (partisanship, strength, experience). In general, municipalities increase capital spending (primarily on infrastructure, housing, leisure activities) and decrease current spending (administration) before elections. Rightist governments target leisure activities and save more on administration, whereas leftist governments target current spending on social services. Stronger governments and those with newly elected mayors have lower incentive to create an electoral cycle. Voters' involvement in local policies and also success of ruling local (and parliamentary) parties in nat ional parliamentary elections diminish local electoral cycles. |
| Keywords: | political cycle, local government expenditures, municipalities |
| JEL: | H72 D72 R50 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2015_28&r=cse |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Office of the Special Project Facilitator, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Office of the Special Project Facilitator, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | The Accountability Mechanism in 2015—the 12th year of its implementation—concentrated on building skills and capacity, both within ADB including resident mission staff and externally among implementing agencies and other stakeholders. Country-specific training programs, outreach, workshops, and consultations were held in and for Cambodia, People’s Republic of China (PRC), Fiji, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Samoa, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Coordination was initiated with the two new development banks in the PRC: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and New Development Bank. Office of the Special Project Facilitator (OSPF) resolved one complaint in Nepal, while Office of the Compliance Review Panel (OCRP) submitted one compliance review report for India, an eligibility report (Cambodia), and annual monitoring reports on several cases (Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Philippines). And a joint learning report was prepared by OSPF, OCRP, Independent Evaluation Department, and Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department. |
| Keywords: | Accountability Mechanism, Annual Report 2015, 2015 Accountability Mechanism Annual Report, AM Report 2015 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt167982-2&r=cse |
| By: | Philipp Poppitz |
| Abstract: | This paper examines subjective social status to test whether individual comparisons are driven by income and wealth, or social and cultural capital as defined by Bourdieu. The empirical analysis uses a cross-sectional data set of 18 European countries and a mixed model with an MCMC estimation method. The results show that material factors are just as important as non-material factors. Besides income and wealth, other dimensions of inequality including education, occupational prestige, parental background and working status are important factors to explain the gap between the income distribution and subjective social status. The most relevant institutions to explain the cross-country differences within Europe are the GDP level, average health and the education system, which also moderates the relevance of wealth on subjective social status. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Perception, Social Status, Bourdieu, Education |
| JEL: | D31 C21 I24 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:wpaper:173-2016&r=cse |
| By: | L. Rachel Ngai (Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEP); Economics Department London School of Economics (LSE); Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)); Kevin Sheedy (Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEP); Economics Department London School of Economics (LSE); Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)) |
| Abstract: | Using data on house sales and inventories, this paper shows that housing-market dynamics are driven mainly by listings and less so by transaction speed, thus the decision to move house is key to understanding the housing market. The paper builds a model where moving house is essentially an investment in match quality, implying that moving depends on macroeconomic developments and housing-market conditions. The endogeneity of moving means there is a cleansing effect - those at the bottom of the match quality distribution move first - which generates overshooting in aggregate variables. The model is applied to the 1995{2004 housing-market boom. |
| Keywords: | Housing market, Search and Matching, Endogenous moving, Match quality investment |
| JEL: | D83 E22 R31 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1621&r=cse |
| By: | Gutierrez, Italo A.; Molina, Oswaldo |
| Abstract: | Titling programs have focused only on providing initial tenure security, but have not paid attention to the process of maintaining the formality of future property transactions. Evidence shows that properties become de-regularized due to unregistered transactions in urban slums, reducing the households' ability to reap the potential benefits of tenure security in the future. We exploit a natural experiment provided by the elimination of a registration system targeted to the poor in Peru to identify the effects of increasing the costs and complexity of registering property transactions in urban areas. We found that the elimination of such system led to a significant reduction in the probability of registering a transaction, including those transactions that involved a change in ownership. This presents an important threat to maintaining the benefits of the titling reform in the long run. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:1156&r=cse |
| By: | Raphaële Préget (LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - UM3 - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - INRA Montpellier - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Phu Nguyen Van (UMR Beta - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marc Willinger (LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - UM3 - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - INRA Montpellier - Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | We rely on the methodology of Fischbacher et al. (2001) in order to identify subjects’ behavioral types. We then link the likelihood to act as a leader in a repeated public goods game to the elicited behavioral types. The leader in a group is defined as the subject who voluntarily decides in the first place about his contribution. The leader’s contribution is then reported publicly to the remaining group members who take their contribution decisions simultaneously. Our main findings are that leaders emerge in almost all rounds and that subjects who are identified as conditional cooperators are more likely to act as leaders than other types, e.g. free-riders or triangle-contributors. We also find that voluntary leaders, irrespective of their behavioral type, contribute always more than followers. However the presence of leadership does not prevent the decay that is commonly observed in linear public goods experiments. |
| Keywords: | Voluntary Contribution Mechanism,Leadership,Public Goods,Experimental Economics |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01300195&r=cse |
| By: | Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Over the course of 2015, the average money income in nominal terms increased by 10.1%, to Rb 30,311 per capita. Although the year 2015 saw a rise in the growth rate of nominal money incomes relative to 2014, a 12.9% increase in consumer prices caused a sharp decline in the indicators of the standard of living in real terms. In 2015, the real disposable incomes of the population, real wages, and the real size of allotted pension amounted to 96.0%, 90.5% and 96.2% respectively, of their values in 2014 |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, living standard, money income, spending of the population |
| JEL: | I31 I32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-255&r=cse |
| By: | Marine Carrasco; Barbara Rossi |
| Abstract: | This paper considers in-sample prediction and out-of-sample forecasting in regressions with many exogenous predictors. We consider four dimension reduction devices: principal components, Ridge, Landweber Fridman, and Partial Least Squares. We derive rates of convergence for two representative models: an ill-posed model and an approximate factor model. The theory is developed for a large cross-section and a large time-series. As all these methods depend on a tuning parameter to be selected, we also propose data-driven selection methods based on cross- validation and establish their optimality. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application to forecasting inflation and output growth in the U.S. show that data-reduction methods out- perform conventional methods in several relevant settings, and might effectively guard against instabilities in predictors' forecasting ability. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting, regularization methods, factor models, Ridge, partial least squares, principal components, sparsity, large datasets, variable selection, GDP forecasts, inflation forecasts |
| JEL: | C22 C52 C53 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1530&r=cse |
| By: | Antoni, Manfred (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Ganzer, Andreas (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); vom Berge, Philipp (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | "The SIAB is produced at the Research Data Centre (FDZ) of the Federal Employment Agen-cy (BA) at the IAB. The SIAB covers the employment histories of 1,757,925 individuals, and their employment biographies are documented in a total of 58,220,255 lines of data. This Datenreport describes the variables of the weakly anonymous version of the SIAB, which largely comprises the original data, i.e. data which have not undergone anonymisation processes. In order to protect the anonymity of the data subjects, some variables are classi-fied as particularly sensitive and are only disclosed on submission of a special application (see Section 1.2). The Datenreport on the SIAB is structured as follows. Besides the introduction, Section 1 contains information on data access as well as an outline of the data, the volume structure and a list of variables. A description of the individual data sources can be found in Section 2. Data preparation and data quality are discussed in Sections 3 and 4, whilst the individual variables are described in Section 5." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) Additional Information Auszählungen frequencies and labels |
| Keywords: | Integrierte Arbeitsmarktbiografien, Datensatzbeschreibung, Datenanonymisierung, Datenzugang, Datenaufbereitung, Stichprobe, Datenqualität |
| Date: | 2016–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:201604_en&r=cse |
| By: | Zatsepin Vasily (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Tsymbal Vitaly (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Unlike previous years, the findings of analysis of Russia’s military economics and policy in 2015 fail to match what is perceived as absolute peacetime. The IISS, a world-leading authority on global security, argues that Russia is conducting a so-called hybrid warfare. The published views of western experts on hybrid warfare reflect the events occurred in Ukraine over the last two years. The spring of 2015 saw changes in accusations against Russia following Russia’s air strikes and cruise missiles strikes on the positions of ISIS terrorists in Syria. The fact that Russia is conducting special-purpose military operations is indisputable. Russia took the terrorist attack that brought down the Russian plane in Egypt, killing all 224 Russian passengers on board, as military assault against Russia’s nationals, thus forcing Russia to introduce retaliatory military counteractions against not only the ISIS in Syria but also against organizers and sponsors of terrorism. Later there were acts of terrorism in France, that prompted the French government to join the war against the ISIS, acting in conjunction with Russia and with a few other countries. Being unhappy with these developments, the Turkish government prepared the shoot down of a Russian military jet along the Syrian border. Russia responded with economic countersanctions, warning more sanctions could follow. Therefore, it appears logical that a new version of the Russian Federation National Security Strategy (Executive Order of the President No. 683 dated December 31, 2015) was approved on the very last day of 2015 . |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, military-industrial complex, military reform, defense order, military procurement, defense control |
| JEL: | D74 F52 H56 F51 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-239&r=cse |
| By: | Shashi Pandey |
| Abstract: | One of the most significant social changes over the past 10 years in Allahabad is the membership of women in SHGs (Self-Help Group) through the intervention of Block and bank initiatives. The group based lending with new norms has generated new role of women at family and community level. This economic tie has positively influenced their social relations and actions. In present time 99 percent of the household women have engaged from the SHGs in the village and as a ‘peer group’ they spread all over the village. So, present paper examines that in how political sphere is affected due to existence of SHGs in village. This study is based on the interviews of 45 women members of SHGs in which 15 members from OBC SHG, 15 from SC and remaining 15 from mixed caste SHGs from Hathiganha village in Allahabad district, Uttar Pradesh. Study reveals that women become important for the pachayat election due to the membership of SHG while before joining the SHG male members of the family were more involved in political issues and women have passively obeyed the male members of the family on such issues. Key words: SHGs, Women, political participation |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-06-10&r=cse |
| By: | Singh, Prakarsh (Amherst College); Mitra, Sandip (Indian Statistical Institute) |
| Abstract: | We carry out a randomized controlled experiment in West Bengal, India to test three separate performance pay treatments in the public health sector. Performance is judged on improvements in child malnutrition. We exogenously change wages of government employed child care workers through either absolute or relative incentives. We also test for the impact of high and low absolute incentives. Results show that high absolute incentives reduce severe malnutrition by 6.3 percentage points over three months. Result is consistent with a reported increase in protein-rich diet at home in the high absolute treatment. There are no significant effects on health outcomes of other incentive arms. Results remain robust to propensity score matching, reversion- to-mean and a placebo check. |
| Keywords: | performance pay, child malnutrition, absolute and relative incentives |
| JEL: | M52 I12 I38 J38 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10084&r=cse |
| By: | Daniel Teles (Department of Economics, Tulane University) |
| Abstract: | The majority of U.S. states have implemented tax credits that encourage donating to specific classes of nonprofits. However, the effect on the nonprofits themselves is unknown. This paper estimates the causal effect of two of the costliest programs. Arizona’s Working Poor Tax Credit (WPTC) and the Endow Iowa Tax Credit (“Endow Iowa†) provide stark contrast for analysis. The WPTC, the largest tax credit for charitable giving in terms of tax expenditure, provides a broadly targeted 100 percent credit with a cap of $200 per person. Endow Iowa provides a sharply targeted 25 percent credit with a cap of $300,000 per tax-payer. A model of donor budget constraints and preferences suggests that Endow Iowa has greater potential to induce large increases in contributions to its targeted charities than does the WPTC. Using synthetic control methods to construct counterfactuals, I estimate a 125 percent increase in contributions to community foundations in Iowa. In contrast, I find no evidence that the WPTC increased contributions to the targeted Arizona nonprofits. Evidence suggests that the growth in contribution levels in Iowa included increases in both the number of community foundations and the level of contributions per foundation. |
| Keywords: | Tax credits, tax incentive, subsidies, state taxation, charity, nonprofits, philanthropy. |
| JEL: | D64 L30 L38 H24 H71 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:1606&r=cse |
| By: | Giovanni Marin (IRCrES-CNR, Milano, Italy); Roberto Zoboli (DISEIS, Catholic University of Milano, Italy) |
| Abstract: | The structural change of the economy towards an increasing share of services is seen in environmental economics as a fundamental driver of ‘decoupling’ between economic growth and environmental pressures. The environmental and socio-economic consequence of structural change, however, can be less straightforward when economic interdependencies are considered. In this paper we evaluate the implications of structural change towards services in the EU in terms of environmental pressures (aggregate and by sector, direct and indirect). The changing patterns in environmental pressures are analyses vis à vis the corresponding changes in the distribution of employment and value added. For carrying out this integrated assessment we use Environmentally Extended Multi Regional Input Output modelling applied to data from the World Input Output Database (WIOD). The results suggest that the service sectors is characterized by a lower emission intensity than the industrial sectors, when looking at direct emissions (‘production perspective’) but this gap is much smaller when considering also indirect emissions in a ‘vertically integrated’ approach (‘consumption perspective’). Moreover, changes in the production structure of the EU economy in absence of relevant changes in the composition of the final demand induce an increased reliance on environmental pressures, employment and value added generated abroad. The integrated assessment of these ‘global footprints’ suggests that the EU is transferring worldwide more emissions that value added and employment. This form of ‘unequal exchange’ can be relevant for development and environmental policies, in particular those on global climate change. |
| Keywords: | EE-MRIO; structural change; carbon leakage; production and consumption perspective; international trade |
| JEL: | C67 F18 Q52 Q55 Q56 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:0816&r=cse |
| By: | Song, Lina (University of Nottingham); Appleton, Simon (University of Nottingham); Liang, Zhe (University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | The rapid growth of informal employment in China in recent decades has attracted attention, but to understand its implications, the concept of informality must be deconstructed. We reclassify employment status into three categories: salaried workers who have long-term contracts; the self-employed; and causal workers without long term contracts (working in either the formal or the informal sector). The monthly earnings of the self-employed are much (47%) higher than those casual employees. Self-employment is not necessarily a misfortune and the flexibility it provides may be optimal for some kinds of workers. For example, the self-employed are more likely to be disabled and to have young families. Institutionally, it is still difficult for casual workers and most rural-urban migrant workers to embark on business ownership. Although a large group of rural-urban migrants are employees with longer term contracts, their rural registration (hukou) means they lack the social protection of urban residents. The labour force with rural hukou is more likely to fall into the informal sector and, within that sector, is most likely to be engaged in casual labouring jobs. Policies to support small businesses may be warranted given the detrimental impacts of informality on casual workers. Experimental interventions could be tried along the lines of those used in Peru to provide funds to support entrepreneurial activities by this group to lift themselves out of a poverty trap into more sustainable employment. Skill training, encouragement for innovation, tax credits and reducing institutional constraints on starting up small business should be all considered. |
| Keywords: | informality, vulnerability, self-employment, casual labour, China |
| JEL: | J24 J46 J48 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10100&r=cse |
| By: | Coen N. Teulings |
| Abstract: | Bubbles are usually viewed as a threat to financial stability. This paper takes a more nuanced view. The world economy is going through an episode of Secular Stagnation, where the equilibrium rate of return on capital r is below the growth rate of the economy g. As is well known, rational bubbles are sustainable when r?g in a steady state equilibrium. Bubbles can then implement a dynamically efficient equilibrium. We show that from a structural point of view, bubbles, Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) pensions and sovereign debt are perfect substitutes. However, when dealing with unexpected short run fluctuations in investment, sovereign debt is far more efficient than bubbles in shifting consumption over time and in risk sharing between generations. An increase in sovereign debt is therefore an efficient response to Secular Stagnation. Instead, the current Stability and Growth Pact for the Euro-zone embarks on an opposite course. |
| Keywords: | bubbles, dynamic efficiency, fiscal policy, Secular Stagnation |
| JEL: | E44 E62 |
| Date: | 2016–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1643&r=cse |
| By: | Christoph Czichowsky; R\'emi Peyre; Walter Schachermayer; Junjian Yang |
| Abstract: | We continue the analysis of our previous paper (Czichowsky/Schachermayer/Yang 2014) pertaining to the existence of a shadow price process for portfolio optimisation under proportional transaction costs. There, we established a positive answer for a continuous price process $S=(S_t)_{0\leq t\leq T}$ satisfying the condition $(NUPBR)$ of "no unbounded profit with bounded risk". This condition requires that $S$ is a semimartingale and therefore is too restrictive for applications to models driven by fractional Brownian motion. In the present paper, we derive the same conclusion under the weaker condition $(TWC)$ of "two way crossing", which does not require $S$ to be a semimartingale. Using a recent result of R.~Peyre, this allows us to show the existence of a shadow price for exponential fractional Brownian motion and $all$ utility functions defined on the positive half-line having reasonable asymptotic elasticity. Prime examples of such utilities are logarithmic or power utility. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1608.01415&r=cse |
| By: | Lotti, Guili (Department of Economics, University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | How harshly should society punish young lawbreakers in order to prevent or reduce their criminal activity in the future? Through a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we shed light on the question by exploiting two quasi-natural experiments stemming to compate outcomes from relatively harsh and rehabilitative criminal incarceration practices involving young offenders in the 1980's in England and Wales. According to our local linear regression estimates, young offenders exposed to the harsher youth facilities are 20.7 percent more likley to recidivate in the nine years subsequent to their custody, and they commit on average 2.84 offences more than offenders who experienced prison. Moreover, they are more likely to commit violent offences, thefts, burglaries and robberies. On the contrary, offenders who were sent to the more rehabilitative youth facilities are less likely to reoffend in the future compared to offenders sent to prison. We conclude that it is effective to keep young offenders from their older peers in prison, but only when they are held in institutions that are not solely focussed on punishment. |
| Keywords: | young offenders, recidivism, custodial sentence, crime, deterrence effects. |
| JEL: | I30 I31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1126&r=cse |
| By: | Yure Lage Nuic; Cleysson Ribeiro Vieira; Marcos Soares da Silva |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the main determinant factors of the new prudential liquidity requirement, the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), and assesses the possible impacts of its implementation on the Brazilian banking system. To this end, a dynamic panel of 131 financial institutions was estimated for the period between 2008 and 2014. The results indicate that the cost of adjusting the structural liquidity of Brazilian banks is relatively moderate, requiring about eight quarters for a complete absorption of an exogenous shock. Additionally, the results do not indicate that the NSFR has a negative impact on banks’ profitability, as measured by the adjusted return on average assets (ROAA). This suggests a compatibility between lower structural liquidity risk and higher profitability in the long run. Finally, the NSFR presented itself countercyclical, showing its ability to mitigate excessive growth of banking operations during the phase of economic expansion, contributing to the stability of the financial system |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:443&r=cse |
| By: | Jo Van Biesebroeck; Joep Konings; C.V. Martincus |
| Abstract: | In the global recession of 2009, exports declined precipitously in many countries. We illustrate with firm-level data for Belgium and Peru that the decline was very sudden and almost entirely due to lower export sales by existing exporters. After the recession, exports rebounded almost equally quickly and we evaluate whether export promotion programs were an effective tool aiding this recovery. We show that firms taking advantage of this type of support did better during the crisis, controlling flexibly for systematic differences between supported and control firms. The primary mechanism we identify is that supported firms are generally more likely to survive on the export market and, in particular, are more likely to continue exporting to countries hit by the financial crisis. |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:546433&r=cse |
| By: | Manes, Eran (Jerusalem College of Technology (JTC)); Schneider, Friedrich (University of Linz); Tchetchik, Anat (Ben Gurion University) |
| Abstract: | A large number of empirical studies pointed to the ongoing expansion of the shadow economy in many countries around the globe. A robust finding in these studies is the positive association between unemployment rates and the size of the unofficial sector. However, with consistent estimates of the size of the unofficial sector only available from the late 1980s, a lack of sufficient time span dictated the use of static models, allowing only a limited understanding of its temporal behavior and interdependence with other covariates. In this paper, we offer a first systematic attempt to estimate the dynamics of the shadow economy, using advanced dynamic panel techniques. Based on insights from a simple job search model of unemployment that features decreasing returns to unofficial activities and congestion effects in job searching, we conjecture a long-run equilibrium relationship between unemployment and the size of the shadow economy. Our empirical model lends strong support to this view. We find that in countries with less stringent job market regulation the long-run impact of Unemployment, the tax burden, and GDP on the shadow economy, while positive and significant, is much smaller than in heavily regulated countries Moreover, the speed of adjustment back to long-run equilibrium following temporary shocks is shown to be three times faster in countries with looser job-market regulation, compared with countries with stricter regulation. These findings have important policy implications. |
| Keywords: | shadow economy, boundaries to the shadow economy, unemployment, taxation, regulation |
| JEL: | C32 H11 H26 I2 O17 P16 P48 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10067&r=cse |
| By: | S. Agarwal; D. Ghosh; A. S. Chakrabarti |
| Abstract: | In this paper we consider a distributed coordination game played by a large number of agents with finite information sets, which characterizes emergence of a single dominant attribute out of a large number of competitors. Formally, $N$ agents play a coordination game repeatedly which has exactly $N$ Nash equilibria and all of the equilibria are equally preferred by the agents. The problem is to select one equilibrium out of $N$ possible equilibria in the least number of attempts. We propose a number of heuristic rules based on reinforcement learning to solve the coordination problem. We see that the agents self-organize into clusters with varying intensities depending on the heuristic rule applied although all clusters but one are transitory in most cases. Finally, we characterize a trade-off in terms of the time requirement to achieve a degree of stability in strategies and the efficiency of such a solution. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1608.00213&r=cse |
| By: | Jess Diamond (Hitotsubashi University,); Kota Watanabe (CIGS and University of Tokyo); Tsutomu Watanabe (University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | Using a new micro-level dataset we investigate the relationship between the inflation experience and inflation expectations of individuals in Japan. We focus on the period after 1995, when Japan began its era of deflation. Our key findings are fourfold. Firstly, we find that inflation expectations tend to increase with age. Secondly, we find that measured inflation rates of items purchased also increase with age. However, we find that age and inflation expectations continue to have a positive correlation even after controlling for the individual-level rate of inflation. Further analysis suggests that the positive correlation between age and inflation expectations is driven to a significant degree by the correlation between cohort and inflation expectations, which we interpret to represent the effect of historical inflation experience on expectations of future inflation rates. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Expectations, Deflation, Monetary Policy, Panel Data, Japan |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upd:utppwp:067&r=cse |
| By: | Zheming Tong; Yujiao Chen; Malkawi, Ali; Zhu Liu; Richard B. Freeman |
| Abstract: | Natural ventilation (NV) is a key sustainable solution for reducing the energy use in buildings, improving thermal comfort, and maintaining a healthy indoor environment. However, the energy savings and environmental benefits are affected greatly by ambient air pollution in China. Here we estimate the NV potential of all major Chinese cities based on weather, ambient air quality, building configuration, and newly constructed square footage of office buildings in the year of 2015. In general, little NV potential is observed in northern China during the winter and southern China during the summer. Kunming located in the Southwest China is the most weather-favorable city for natural ventilation, and reveals almost no loss due to air pollution. Building Energy Simulation (BES) is conducted to estimate the energy savings of natural ventilation in which ambient air pollution and total square footage at each city must be taken into account. Beijing, the capital city, displays limited per-square-meter saving potential due to the unfavorable weather and air quality for natural ventilation, but its largest total square footage of office buildings makes it become the city with the greatest energy saving opportunity in China. Our analysis shows that the aggregated energy savings potential of office buildings at 35 major Chinese cities is 112 GWh in 2015, even after allowing for a 43 GWh loss due to China?s serious air pollution issue especially in North China. 8?78% of the cooling energy consumption can be potentially reduced by natural ventilation depending on local weather and air quality. The findings here provide guidelines for improving current energy and environmental policies in China, and a direction for reforming building codes. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:428396&r=cse |
| By: | Paul Dolan; Georgios Kavetsos; Christian Krekel; Dimitris Mavridis; Robert Metcalfe; Claudia Senik; Stefan Szymanski; Nicolas R. Ziebarth |
| Abstract: | We show that hosting the Olympic Games in 2012 had a positive impact on the life satisfaction and happiness of Londoners during the Games, compared to residents of Paris and Berlin. Notwithstanding issues of causal inference, the magnitude of the effects is equivalent to moving from the bottom to the fourth income decile. But they do not last very long: the effects are gone within a year. These conclusions are based on a novel panel survey of 26,000 individuals who were interviewed during the summers of 2011, 2012, and 2013, i.e. before, during, and after the event. The results are robust to selection into the survey and to the number of medals won. |
| Keywords: | subjective wellbeing, life satisfaction, happiness, Olympic Games, natural experiment |
| JEL: | I30 I31 I38 L83 Z20 Z28 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1441&r=cse |
| By: | Simeon Djankov (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Owen Hauck (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents evidence from 29 postcommunist countries that the economic transition has been more successful than the political transformation in the quarter century since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The adoption of strong parliamentarian systems has countered the adverse effects of religious and imperial history on economic evolution. As a result, the divergence in democracy and political rights is 4 to 5 times larger than the divergence in the path toward economic freedom and ease of doing business. Democracy is not harder to predict than economic freedom—history and ethnicity predict it well. But recent authoritarian regressions in Hungary and Poland, countries with successful economic reforms and strong parliamentarian systems, present a new challenge to researchers. |
| Keywords: | Economic Freedom, Ease of Doing Business, Democracy |
| JEL: | P26 P52 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp16-10&r=cse |
| By: | Simone Cerreia Vioglio; Fabio Maccheroni; Massimo Marinacci |
| Abstract: | Pre-Hilbert A-Modules are a natural generalization of inner product spaces in which the scalars are allowed to be from an arbitrary algebra. In this perspective, submodules are the generalization of vector subspaces. The notion of orthogo- nality generalizes in an obvious way too. In this paper, we provide necessary and su¢ cient topological conditions for a submodule to be orthogonally comple- mented. We present three applications of our results. In the most important one, we obtain the Kunita-Watanabe decomposition for conditionally square- integrable martingales as an orthogonal decomposition result carried out in an opportune pre-Hilbert A-module. Second, we show that a version of Strickers Lemma can be also derived as a corollary of our results. Finally, we provide a version of the Koopman-von Neumann decomposition theorem for a speci c pre-Hilbert module which is useful in Ergodic Theory. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:577&r=cse |
| By: | Shadrin Artem (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The regions’ consolidated budgets and the budgets of subnational state off-budget funds ran with a deficit of Rb 178.7bn (0.22% of GDP) at the 2015 year-end. In terms of percentage of GDP, the regions’ consolidated budget deficit was over three times as little as the value recorded in 2014. For example, in 2014, subnational budgets ran a deficit of Rb 485.6bn (0.68% of GDP). |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, municipal finances, loan market |
| JEL: | H71 H74 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-258&r=cse |
| By: | Juan Sanchez (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Alexander Monge-Naranjo (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Lance Lochner (University of Western Ontario) |
| Abstract: | This study develops a quantitative lifecycle framework to study dynamic student loan contracts that account for problems associated with moral hazard, limited commitment, and costly income verification. Within this environment, we study how optimal student loan limits should be set as functions of observable borrower characteristics and how loan repayments should be structured as functions of current income, past payments, and student debt. We calibrate our quantitative model using previous estimates of earnings and employment dynamics in the U.S. and to match various moments derived from longitudinal data on American borrowing and repayment behavior. Our calibrated model is used to characterize constrained efficient credit contracts and to compare the nature of those contracts with current GSL programs in the U.S. as well as frequently discussed income-based alternatives. We not only compare the contracts themselves, but we also study their implications in terms of borrowing, schooling, and repayment behavior. Our analysis considers both the efficiency of various lending regimes as well as their distributional consequences across ability and wealth groups. Importantly, we discuss general lessons that can be used in the practical development of GSL programs. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:343&r=cse |
| By: | Balázs Szentes |
| Abstract: | This article analyses contractual situations between many principals and many agents. The agents have private information, and the principals take actions. Principals have the ability to contract not only on the reports of the agents but also on the contracts offered by other principals. Contracts are required to be representable in a formal language. The main result of the article is a characterization of the allocations that can be implemented as equilibria in our contracting game. We then restrict attention to exclusive-contracting environments, in which the agent may select the contract of at most one principal. In this setting, our characterization result implies that principals can collude to implement the monopolist outcome. Finally, in general, equilibrium contracts turn out to be incomplete. That is, a contract will restrict the action space of a principal but will not necessarily determine a single action. |
| Keywords: | Common agency; Contractible contracts |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2015–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:66071&r=cse |
| By: | Chen, Daniel L. |
| Abstract: | Some theories about the positive impact of markets on morality suggest that competition increases empathy, not between competitors, but between them and third parties. However, empathy may be a necessary evolutionary antecedent to guile, which is when someone knows what the other person wants and intentionally deceives him or her, and deception may have evolved as a means of exploiting empathy. This paper examines how individuals primed for empathy behave towards third parties in a simple economic game of deception. It reports the results of a data entry experiment in an online labor market. Individuals enter data randomized to be a prime for empathy, for guile, or a control. Empathy is then measured using a Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test and guile is measured using a simple economic game. Individuals primed for empathy become less deceptive towards third parties. Individuals primed for guile become less likely to perceive that deceiving an individual is unfair in a vignette. These results are robust to a variety of controls and to restricting to workers who entered the prime accurately. These findings are inconsistent with the hypothesis that empathy causes guile and suggests that empathy may cause those who are making judgements to become less deceptive. |
| Keywords: | Normative Commitments, Other-Regarding Preferences, Empathy, Deception, Guile |
| JEL: | D03 D64 K00 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:iastwp:30643&r=cse |
| By: | Picchio, Matteo (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); van Ours, Jan (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | From the point of view of workplace safety, it is important to know whether having a temporary job has an effect on the severity of workplace accidents. We present an empirical analysis on the severity of workplace accidents by type of contract. Method: We used micro data collected by the Italian national institute managing the mandatory insurance against work related accidents. We estimated linear models for a measure of the severity of the workplace accident. We controlled for time-invariant fixed effects at worker and firm levels to disentangle the impact of the type of contract from the spurious one induced by unobservables at worker and firm levels. Results: Workers with a temporary contract, if subject to a workplace accident, were more likely to be confronted with severe injuries than permanent workers. When correcting the statistical analysis for injury underreporting of temporary workers, we found that most of, but not all, the effect is driven by the under-reporting bias. Conclusions: The effect of temporary contracts on the injury severity survived the inclusion of worker and firm fixed effects and the correction for temporary workers’ injury under-reporting. This however does not exclude the possibility that, within firms, the nature of the work may vary between different categories of workers. For example, temporary workers might be more likely to be assigned by the employer dangerous tasks because they might have less bargaining power. Practical implications: The findings will be of help in designing public policy effective in increasing temporary workers’ safety at work and limiting their injury under-reporting. |
| Keywords: | workplace accidents; injury severity; temporary jobs; contract type; injury under reporting |
| JEL: | J81 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:0dfc3a41-4239-4132-b415-492e152713e3&r=cse |
| By: | Borissov, Kirill (European University of St. Petersburg); Bosi, Stefano (University of Evry); Ha-Huy, Thai (University of Evry); Modesto, Leonor (Universidade Catolica Portuguesa, Lisbon) |
| Abstract: | We extend the Lucas' 1988 model introducing two classes of agents with heterogeneous skills, discount factors and initial human capital endowments. We consider two regimes according to the planner's political constraints. In the first regime, that we call meritocracy, the planner faces individual constraints. In the second regime the planner faces an aggregate constraint, redistributing. We find that heterogeneity matters, particularly with redistribution. In the meritocracy regime, the optimal solution coincides with the BGP found by Lucas (1988) for the representative agent's case. In contrast, in the redistribution case, the solution for time devoted to capital accumulation is never interior for both agents. Either the less talented agents do not accumulate human capital or the more skilled agents do not work. Moreover, social welfare under the redistribution regime is always higher than under meritocracy and it is optimal to exploit existing differences. Finally, we find that inequality in human capital distribution increases in time and that, in the long run, inequality always promotes growth. |
| Keywords: | human capital, heterogeneous skills |
| JEL: | J24 O15 O40 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10090&r=cse |
| By: | Jaime Reis (Universidade de Lisboa) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the first estimate to date of the anual output of Portugal’s agriculture between 1500 and 1850. It adopts the well-known indirect approach, which uses a consumption function for agricultural products. Prices and wages for this come from a recently created data base. It also verifies the assumption that agricultural consumption is equal or very close to national output. The method for calculating the income variable in the function is innovative since labour supplied per worker is not constant over time as in many estimates. Instead, it is made to vary, reflecting the ‘industrious revolution’ which occurred in Portugal during much of the period considered. The main finding is that the country’s agriculture displays a long-run upward trend, contrary to traditional stagnationist views. It was unable, however, to keep up with the even stronger concomitant growth of population. Food consumption consequently declined, sharply in the 16c. but more slowly in the 17c. It recovered during part of the 18c. but after the 1750s it slipped again and down to 1850 it lost all these welfare gains. |
| Keywords: | agricultural output, early modern Portugal, cycles, food consumption |
| JEL: | N53 O13 Q10 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0098&r=cse |
| By: | Sohei Kaihatsu (Bank of Japan); Noriyuki Shiraki (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to examine the formation mechanism of firms' inflation expectations and the relationship between those expectations and wage-setting behaviors. We conduct an empirical analysis based on microdata constructed by matching a business survey for inflation expectations and corporate financial data. Our empirical results demonstrate that firms' short-term and medium- to long-term inflation expectations have significantly increased after the Bank of Japan introduced a price stability target of two percent and quantitative and qualitative monetary easing in 2013. During this period, dispersions of distributions of inflation expectations increased temporarily and then shrank again. These changes vary across business attributes, such as the size of a firm. Therefore, differences in business attributes might result in the heterogeneous reaction of inflation expectations to monetary policy shocks. Furthermore, an empirical analysis using the data from 2004 to 2016 shows that (a) both wages and short-term inflation expectations tend to increase along with medium- to long-term inflation expectations and (b) both wages and operating profits tend to decrease when only short-term inflation expectations increase. The result implies that a balanced economic growth between prices and wages can be achieved when there is an increase in a wide range of firms' medium- to long-term inflation expectations. |
| Keywords: | firm's inflation expectation; wage-setting behavior; quantitative and qualitative monetary easing; panel VAR |
| JEL: | D21 D84 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp16e10&r=cse |
| By: | Kolesar, Michal; Chetty, Raj; Friedman, John; Glaeser, Edward Ludwig; Imbens, Guido |
| Abstract: | We study estimation and inference in settings where the interest is in the effect of a potentially endogenous regressor on some outcome. To address the endogeneity we exploit the presence of additional variables. Like conventional instrumental variables, these variables are correlated with the endogenous regressor. However, unlike conventional instrumental variables, they also have direct effects on the outcome, and thus are “invalid†instruments. Our novel identifying assumption is that the direct effects of these invalid instruments are uncorrelated with the effects of the instruments on the endogenous regressor. We show that in this case the limited-information-maximum-likelihood (liml) estimator is no longer consistent, but that a modification of the bias-corrected two-stage-least-squares (tsls) estimator is consistent. We also show that conventional tests for over-identifying restrictions, adapted to the many instruments setting, can be used to test for the presence of these direct effects. We recommend that empirical researchers carry out such tests and compare estimates based on liml and the modified version of bias-corrected tsls. We illustrate in the context of two applications that such practice can be illuminating, and that our novel identifying assumption has substantive empirical content. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hrv:faseco:27769098&r=cse |
| By: | Maarten Janssen; Bernhard Kasberger |
| Abstract: | The Combinatorial Clock Auction (CCA) has been frequently used in recent spectrum auctions. It combines a dynamic clockphase with subsequent VCG pricing in order to maximize price discovery and eciency. We inquire into the role of the clock when bidders have lexicographic preferences for raising rivals' costs. All equilibria of the CCA are inecient if there is substantial room for price discovery, that is, if there is large uncertainty concerning the competitor's type. Conversely, in all ecient equilibria price discovery is limited. Qualitative features of our equilibria are in line with evidence concerning bidding behavior in some recent CCAs. |
| JEL: | D01 D44 D47 L96 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vie:viennp:1607&r=cse |
| By: | Adamopoulou, Effrosyni (Efi) (Bank of Italy); Kaya, Ezgi (Cardiff University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of peer behavior on living arrangements of young adults in the U.S. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) we analyze the influence of high school friends on the nest-leaving decision of young adults. We achieve identification by exploiting the differences in the timing of leaving the parental home among peers, the individual-specific nature of the peer groups that are based on friendship nominations, and by including school (network) and grade (cohort) fixed effects. Our results indicate that there are statistically significant peer effects on the decision of young adults to leave parental home. This is true even after we control for labor and housing market conditions and for a comprehensive list of individual and family-of-origin characteristics that are usually unobserved by the econometrician. We discuss various mechanisms and we confirm the robustness of our results through a placebo exercise. Our findings reconcile with the increasing fraction of young adults living with their parents that is persisting in the U.S. even after the end of the Great Recession. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, friends, living arrangements, leaving parental home |
| JEL: | D10 J12 J60 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10070&r=cse |
| By: | Larch, Mario; Yotov, Yoto V. |
| Abstract: | The objective of this manuscript is to serve as a practical guide for evaluation of the general equilibrium (GE) effects of trade policy using the structural gravity model. We try to achieve this objective in four steps. First, we focus on the original Armington CES gravity model, as a representative framework for a large class of GE models, to offer a deep analysis of the structural relationships underlying the general equilibrium gravity system, and how they can be exploited to make trade policy inferences. Second, we present and discuss a series of indexes that can be used to summarize the GE effects of trade policy. Third, we summarize the standard procedures to perform counterfactual analysis with the gravity model, and we outline recent methods to obtain theory-consistent GE effects of trade policy with a simple estimation procedure that can be performed in any statistical software package capable of estimating a poisson model (e.g. Stata). Finally, we demonstrate how gravity can be integrated with a broader class of general equilibrium models by nesting the Armington-CES model within a dynamic production superstructure with capital accumulation. |
| Keywords: | Structural Gravity,Trade Policy,General Equilibrium Analysis |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201608&r=cse |
| By: | Stefano Ugolini (University of Toulouse (Institute of Political Studies and LEREPS)) |
| Abstract: | Is a strong commitment to monetary stability enough to ensure credibility? The recent literature suggests it might not be if the central bank cannot perform pure interest rate policy and has to resort to balance sheet policy: the central bank’s financial strength (i.e. the long-term sustainability of its policy) is also a determinant of credibility. This paper provides historical evidence on the issue by focusing on the case of the Bank of England at the heyday of the classical gold standard. It shows that as the Bank was not perceived as having the means to fulfil all of its obligations, the efficacy of its interest rate policy was poor. Failing to reform for political economy reasons, the Bank eventually had to default on its formal convertibility mandate. |
| Keywords: | Central banking, institutional design, monetary policy implementation, reverse repos, term structure of interest rates, gold standard |
| JEL: | E42 E43 E58 N13 |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bno:worpap:2016_10&r=cse |
| By: | Del Bello, Carlo; Panebianco, Fabrizio; Verdier, Thierry; Zenou, Yves |
| Abstract: | We propose a model of the intergenerational transmission of education where children belong to either high-educated or low-educated families. Children choose the intensity of their social activities while parents decide how much educational effort to exert. We characterize the equilibrium and show under which condition cultural substitution or complementarity emerges. There is cultural substitution (complementarity) if parents decrease (increase) their education effort when their child socializes more with other children of the same type. By structurally estimating our model to the AddHealth data in the United States, we find that there is cultural complementarity for high-educated parents and cultural substitution for low-educated parents. This means that, for both parents, the more their children interact with kids from high-educated families, the more parents exert educational effort. We also perform some policy simulations. We find that policies aiming at mixing high and low educated children perform well in terms of average educational outcomes. We also show that a policy that gives vouchers to children from high-educated families have a positive and significant impact on the educational outcomes of all children while a policy that gives vouchers to children from low-educated families has a negative effect on the outcomes of both groups. |
| Keywords: | cultural transmission.; education; homophily; Social Networks |
| JEL: | D85 I21 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11419&r=cse |
| By: | Tomiyuki Kitamura; Tamon Takamura |
| Abstract: | In a simple two-sector New Keynesian model, sticky prices generate a counterfactual negative comovement between the output of durable and nondurable goods following a monetary policy shock. We show that heterogeneous factor markets allow any combination of strictly positive price stickiness to generate positive output comovement. Even if the prices of durable goods are flexible, adding sticky information ensures that the output of both sectors moves in the same direction. Furthermore, we find that the combination of sticky information and heterogeneous factor markets produces hump-shaped responses in both sectoral output and inflation, as observed in a vector-autoregression analysis. In contrast to backward indexation to past inflation, which is often assumed in the literature, sticky information leads to a hump-shaped response in the inflation of flexibly priced goods. Finally, the estimated information stickiness through the minimum-distance estimation method suggests that information rigidity is stronger in residential investment than nondurable goods and services. |
| Keywords: | Inflation and prices, Transmission of monetary policy |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-36&r=cse |
| By: | Noritaka Fukuma (Bank of Japan); Kentaro Morishita (Bank of Japan); Takeshi Nakamura (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | Looking at long-term trends in the overall structure of Japan's international transactions shown in the balance of payments (BOP) statistics, the two following points related to Japanese firms are noteworthy. First, there has been a shift in exports from goods to services. And second, earnings on the accumulated stock of external assets are playing an increasingly important role as a result of an increase in Japan's outward direct investment in recent years. The new BOP statistics from 2014 onward including figures for direct investment income by region and industry as well as the external debt position (assets/liabilities) by currency make it possible to conduct more detailed analyses of the stock of external assets and liabilities. While Japanese firms make more profits from the stock of external assets, the rate of return on outward direct investment remains relatively low compared to the United States and United Kingdom, and depends heavily on the high rate of return in the manufacturing sector, particularly the transportation equipment industry in Asia. |
| Date: | 2016–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojrev:rev16e08&r=cse |
| By: | Nadja König (Universität Hamburg (University of Hamburg)) |
| Abstract: | Using agent-based simulation methods we explore the interplay between income distribution, personal insolvency regulations and household borrowing focusing on the effects on macroeconomic dynamics. In order to capture the empirically observed distribution of income and wealth, we model them by means of a Generalised Pareto Distribution. In the presence of social comparison effects, the insolvency regime decides on lower income households' incentives to expose themselves to possibly unsustainable levels of debt. Our main findings can be summarised as follows: for both, creditor friendly and debtor friendly regimes, higher skewness in the distribution of income and wealth leads to an increase in the number of defaults and to lower levels of GDP. Comparing the two regimes, we observe a higher number of defaults and higher aggregate debt under pro-debtor laws given the same starting values for the distribution of income. While debt-financed consumption leads to higher levels of GDP under pro-debtor policies, over-borrowing low-income households put a downward pressure on economic growth. The opposite is true for pro-creditor policies, where we observe positive GDP growth rates, as they prevent households from taking up unsustainable levels of debt ex ante. |
| Keywords: | Optimal Insolvency Regulation, Income and Wealth distribution, Agent-based Model, Computational Simulation |
| JEL: | D10 D31 E02 E21 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hep:macppr:201603&r=cse |
| By: | Breda, Thomas (Paris School of Economics); Hillion, Melina (Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Discrimination against women is seen as one of the possible causes behind their underrepresentation in certain STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) subjects. We show that this is not the case at the competitive exams used to recruit almost all French secondary and postsecondary teachers and professors. Comparisons of oral non gender-blind tests with written gender-blind tests for about 100,000 individuals observed in 11 different fields over the period 2006-2013 reveal a bias in favor of women that is strongly increasing with the extent of a field's male-domination. This bias turns from 3 to 5 percentile ranks for men in literature and foreign languages to about 10 percentile ranks for women in math, physics or philosophy. These findings have implications for the debate over what interventions are appropriate to increase the representation of women in fields in which they are currently underrepresented. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, evaluation bias, gender stereotypes, natural experiment, gender gap in science, preference for opposite gender |
| JEL: | I23 J16 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10079&r=cse |
| By: | Luigi Pistaferri (Stanford University); Itay Saporta-Eksten (Tel Aviv University); Richard Blundell (University College London) |
| Abstract: | We consider the life-cycle problem of a household that in each period decides how much to consume and how to allocate spouses' time to work, leisure, and childcare. In an environment with uncertainty, the allocation of goods and time over the life cycle plays the further role of providing insurance against shocks. We use longitudinal data on consumption, and husband and wife separate information on hourly wages, hours of work, and time spent with children to estimate structural parameters measuring the sensitivity of consumption and time allocation choices to transitory and permanent wage shocks. These structural parameters provide a full picture regarding the ability of household to smooth marginal utility in response to shocks. In addition, information on hours of work and hours spent on childcare allows to decompose overall Frisch response into two components, one reflecting the degree of complementarity between husband's and wife's leisure ("companionship" or "love") and another reflecting the degree of substitutability of their childcare time in the production of childcare services. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:391&r=cse |
| By: | Vanessa Kummer (University of Zurich); Maik Meusel (University of Zurich); Philipp Renner (Stanford University - The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace); Karl Schmedders (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present some new results for the dynamic agent model by Iossa and Rey (2014, "Building Reputation for Contract Renewal: Implications for Performance Dynamics and Contract Duration,'' Journal of the European Economic Association, 12, 549−574) while also correcting some errors in that article. Iossa and Rey study the performance of an agent who repeatedly receives multi-period contracts and determine the optimal duration of such contracts in the context of an infinitely repeated multi-period agent model. We amend the characterization of the unique Markov perfect equilibrium for this model. In addition, we review the original welfare analysis of the model and either provide corrected proofs when possible or provide counterexamples. Our counterexamples overturn the main comparative statics results of the original analysis. We demonstrate that both the agent's optimal investment decision and the optimal contract duration depend non-monotonically on the information persistence and the agent's discount factor. In the final part of the analysis, we establish new results on the agent's optimal investment decision. |
| Keywords: | Career concerns, dynamic agent model, multi-period contracts |
| JEL: | D21 D23 D86 L24 L51 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1632&r=cse |
| By: | Gasteiger, Emanuel |
| Abstract: | Yes, indeed; at least for macroeconomic policy interaction. We examine a Neo-Classical economy and provide the conditions for policy arrangements to successfully stabilize the economy when agents have either rational or adaptive expectations. For a contemporaneous-data monetary policy rule, the monetarist solution is unique and stationary under a passive fiscal/active monetary policy regime if monetary policy appropriately incorporates expectational heterogeneity. In contrast, the active fiscal/passive monetary policy regime's fiscalist solution is prone to explosiveness due to empirically plausible expectational heterogeneity. Nevertheless, this can be a well-defined, rather orthodox equilibrium. For operational monetary policy rules, only the results for the fiscalist solution prevail. Moreover, our results are plausible from an adaptive learning viewpoint. |
| Keywords: | inflation,heterogeneous expectations,fiscal and monetary policy interaction |
| JEL: | E31 D84 E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201614&r=cse |
| By: | Holden, Tom D. |
| Abstract: | We construct the first algorithm for the perfect foresight solution of otherwise linear models with occasionally binding constraints, with fixed terminal conditions, that is guaranteed to return a solution in finite time, if one exists. We also provide a proof of the inescapability of the “curse of dimensionality” for this problem when nothing is known a priori about the model. We go on to extend our algorithm to deal with stochastic simulation, other non-linearities, and future uncertainty. We show that the resulting algorithm produces fast and accurate simulations of a range of models with occasionally binding constraints. |
| Keywords: | occasionally binding constraints,zero lower bound,computation,DSGE,linear complementarity problem |
| JEL: | C61 C63 E3 E4 E5 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:144569&r=cse |
| By: | Alessandro Galesi (Banco de España); Omar Rachedi (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | Advanced economies are undergoing a structural transformation from manufacturing to services. We document that structural change comes with a process of services deepening: over time, both services and manufacturing become more intensive in service inputs. We argue that structural transformation and services deepening affect the transmission of monetary policy by increasing the relative importance of services, which have stickier prices than manufacturing. We study the implications of the U.S. sectoral reallocation with a New Keynesian model with two sectors connected by an input-output matrix, which varies endogenously over time. The rise of services dampens the responses of aggregate and sectoral inflation rates to a monetary policy shock. The changes in the responses of sectoral inflation rates are entirely driven by services deepening. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian model, intermediate inputs, input-output matrix |
| JEL: | E31 E43 E52 O41 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1615&r=cse |
| By: | Flagmeier, Vanessa; Müller, Jens |
| Abstract: | We examine whether companies voluntarily disclose additional information about tax loss carryforwards when the recoverability is more uncertain. With this study, we aim to explain part of the huge cross-sectional variation in the tax footnote. To assess disclosure behavior, we hand collect data from notes of large German firms' IFRS financial statements and identify voluntarily disclosed information beyond the requirements of IAS 12. We find that uncertainty about the usability of tax losses has a significantly negative relation to the amount and quality of disclosure, controlling for other disclosure determinants derived from prior literature. These findings are robust for several indicators representing information and income uncertainty. Our findings suggest that managers anticipate the investors' need for more private information and disclose them voluntarily to send a signal of credibility to the market participants. It can be assumed that disclosing this information is less costly than facing potential risk premiums demanded by investors leading to higher cost of capital. This result indicates that part of the cross-sectional variation in the tax footnote can be explained by differing expectations to use the tax losses. |
| Keywords: | tax loss carryforwards,disclosure,uncertainty,capital cost,deferred taxes |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arqudp:208&r=cse |
| By: | Andreas C. Drichoutis (Agricultural University of Athens); Stathis Klonaris (Agricultural University of Athens); Georgia Papoutsi (Agricultural University of Athens) |
| Abstract: | "We evaluate the claim that bottle size formats signal quality changes, using a controlled laboratory experiment where we simultaneously auctioned two di erent sweet wines: a pomegranate wine and a grape wine. We varied on a between subjects basis the size of the bottle, from 500ml to 750ml, but kept the wine content of the bottle constant across bottle size formats. We also explored in a within subjects design the effect of expectations for the wines, blind tasting and information on willingness to pay. For the grape wine we nd evidence consistent with diminishing marginal utility while for the pomegranate wine we nd a premium for the smaller bottle size which is consistent with changes in perceived scarcity of the wine. We also find that information is adequate in o setting the negative effect from the tasting treatment." |
| Keywords: | second price auction, laboratory experiment, wine, sensory analysis, willingness to pay, bottle size effect. |
| JEL: | C23 C24 C91 D12 M31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aua:wpaper:2016-2&r=cse |
| By: | Vigile Marie Fabella (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany); Georgi Kocharkov (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We document changes in relative earnings of the ethnic Turkish workers in Bulgaria through the country’s transition from planning to markets. Using data from four periods: pre-transition communist era (late 1980s), early transition years (early 1990s), late transition years (early 2000s), and post-transition (late 2000s), we find that the level of raw ethnic inequality (measured as earnings differences between Turkish and Bulgarian workers) increased immediately after the regime change and plateaued throughout the course of transition. Ethnic inequality measures adjusted for observable characteristics follow a similar pattern but post-transitional differences between ethnic groups disappear. Changes over time in the ethnic earnings gaps differ for men and women. The raw and adjusted male ethnic gaps increased steadily during transition years but dropped post-transition, while the raw female ethnic gap fluctuated across the four periods. The adjusted female ethnic gap disappeared completely in the postransitional years. We identify different sources of the changes in the level of ethnic inequality, such as changes in the labor market characteristics and in the wage structure. Evidence suggests that the decline in the relative earnings of Turkish men was due primarily to the widening of the wage structure. Turkish working women improved their relative standing mainly from more favorable changes in labor market characteristics. These changes were only partially due to a selection in labor force participation. |
| Keywords: | Earnings differentials, Ethnicity, Gender, Transition, Bulgaria, Turkish Minority |
| JEL: | J15 J70 P20 P30 |
| Date: | 2016–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:knz:dpteco:1608&r=cse |
| By: | Ke Wang |
| Abstract: | Purpose This study provides an estimation of CO2 emission abatement costs in China's industry sector during the period of 2006-2010, and additionally provide an ex-post estimation of CO2 abatement cost savings that would be realized if carbon emission permits trading among different industry sectors of 30 provinces in China during the same period was allowed, in order to answer the question that whether the industrial carbon emission abatement cost can (partially) be recovered from carbon emission trading in China. Design/methodology/approach The joint production framework associated with the environmental technology is utilized for formulating the models for estimating abatement costs and simulating emission permits trading scheme. Several Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) based models that could deal with both the desirable and undesirable outputs with in the above framework is utilized for abatement cost saving estimation. The weak disposability assumption and variable returns to scale assumption are applied in the modelling. Findings In China's industry sector, during 2006-2010: (i) The estimated CO2 emission abatement cost is 1842 billion yuan which accounts for 2.45% of China¡¯s total industrial output value; (ii) The emission abatement cost saving from emission permits trading would be 315 billion yuan, which accounts for 17.12% of emission opportunity abatement cost. (iii) Additional 1065.95 million tons of CO2 emission reductions would be realized from emission permits trading, and this accounts for 4.75% of the total industrial CO2 emissions. Research limitations/implications The estimation is implemented at the regional level, i.e., the emission permits trading subjects are the whole industry sectors in different Chinese provinces, because of the data limitation in this study. Further estimation could be implemented at the enterprise level in order to provide a deeper insight into the abatement cost recovery from emission permits trading. Practical implications The estimation models and calculation process introduced in this study could be applied for evaluating the efficiency and effectiveness of pollutant emission permits trading schemes from the perspective that whether these market-based abatement policy instruments help to realize the potential abatement cost savings. Originality/value To the best of our knowledge, no study has provided the estimation of CO2 emission abatement cost and the estimation of CO2 abatement cost saving effect from emission permits trading for China¡¯s industry sector. This study provides the first attempt to fill this research gap. |
| JEL: | Q54 Q40 |
| Date: | 2016–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:biw:wpaper:94&r=cse |
| By: | Giuseppe Fiori (North Carolina State University); Domenico Ferraro (Arizona State University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the consequences of demographic change for the effects of tax cuts in the United States over the post-WWII period. Using narratively identified tax changes as proxies for structural shocks, we establish that the responsiveness of unemployment rates to tax changes largely varies across age groups: the unemployment rate response of the young is nearly twice as large as that of prime-age workers. Such heterogeneity is the channel through which shifts in the age composition of the labor force impact the response of the aggregate U.S. unemployment rate to tax cuts. We find that the aging of the Baby Boomers considerably reduces the effects of tax cuts on unemployment. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:359&r=cse |
| By: | Lalé, Etienne (University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a unified account of the trends in unemployment and labor force participation pertaining to the employment experience of older male workers during the past half-century. We build an equilibrium life-cycle model with labor-market frictions and an operative labor supply margin, wherein economic turbulence à la Ljungqvist and Sargent (1998) interact with institutions in ways that deteriorate employment. The model explains simultaneously: (i) the fall in labor force participation in the United States, (ii) the similar but more pronounced decline in Europe alongside rising unemployment rates and (iii) differences across European countries in the role played respectively by unemployment and labor force participation. The model also shows that policies that fostered early retirement may have exacerbated the deterioration of European labor markets: raising early retirement incentives to reduce unemployment among older workers tends to increase unemployment at younger ages, especially in turbulent economic times and under stringent employment protection legislation. |
| Keywords: | job search, job loss, turbulence, European unemployment, labor force participation |
| JEL: | E24 J21 J64 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10061&r=cse |
| By: | Haruna Asonuma; Ayako Hotta-Lister; Ian Nish; Naraoka Sochi |
| Abstract: | Professor Naraoka, Associate Professor of Japanese Political and Diplomatic Historty, University of Kyoto, has been visiting Research Fellow in the International History department, LSE. In his researches into the diaries of Horace Rumbold, a senior diplomat in the British Embassy, Tokyo, he has been associated with Dr Asonuma with whom he has written this paper. It presents insights into Japanese politics and diplomacy, 1909-13 as Japan was moving into the Taisho period. One of the important aspects of the Taisho period was the Twenty-one Demands presented to China in January 1915. Here Ian Nish offers a centenary assessment. It is an abbreviated version of a lecture given at the Japan Research Centre, SOAS, on 8 December 2015. Dr Ayako Hotta-Lister, author, has published The Japan-British Exhibition of 1910 (Japan Library, 1999) and Commerce and Culture at the Japan-British Exhibition (Global Oriental, 2013). Her field of interest has moved to Anglo-Japanese relations during the first world war. The present paper deals with British propaganda in Japan together with a topic rarely dealt with: the reactions of Japanese newspapers and politicians to propaganda from her ally. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:stiisp:/2016/586&r=cse |
| By: | Bharat Diwakar; Gilad Sorek |
| Abstract: | We study the implications of patents breadth and duration (length) to growth and welfare, in an overlapping generations economy of finitely living agents. This demographic structure gives room to inter-generational trade in old patents and life-cycle saving motive, which prove to be relevant to the implications of different patent-policy dimensions. Patent breadth protection affects life-cycle saving and thereby aggregate investment, and the allocation investment between patents and physical capital. Patents duration affects also the stock of, and trade in, old patents. We show that, these unique characteristics of the OLG economy provide a case for incomplete patent breadth protection and finite patent duration, which are both growth and welfare enhancing. Furthermore, we show that the implications of patent policy to growth depend on whether the differentiated inputs are intermediate goods or investment goods. Our results contrast with the ones derived in previous studies that employed the same technologies and preferences in model economies of infinitely living agents. Hence, this work highlights the importance of the assumed demographic structure to the implications of patent policy. |
| Keywords: | IPR; Patent length; Patent Breadth; Growth; OLG |
| JEL: | L16 O30 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2016-08&r=cse |
| By: | Bakker, Jan David (University of Oxford); Parsons, Christopher (University of Western Australia); Rauch, Ferdinand (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Under apartheid, black South Africans were severely restricted in their choice of location and many were forced to live in homelands. Following the abolition of apartheid they were free to migrate. Given gravity, a town nearer to the homelands can be expected to receive a larger inflow of people than a more distant town following the removal of mobility restrictions. Exploting this exogenous variation, we study the effect of migration on urbanisation and the distribution of population. In particular, we test if migration inflows led to displacement, path dependence, or agglomeration in destination areas. We find evidence for path dependence in the aggregate, but substantial heterogeneity across town densities. An exogenous population shock leads to an increase of the urban relative to the rural population, which suggests that exogenous migration shocks can foster urbanisation in the medium run. |
| Keywords: | economic geography, migration, urbanisation, natural experiment |
| JEL: | R12 R23 N97 O18 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10113&r=cse |
| By: | Massimiliano Ferraresi (Università di Ferrara); Umberto Galmarini (Università dell'Insubria e IEB); Leonzio Rizzo (Università di Ferrara e IEB); Alberto Zanardi (Ufficio Parlamentare di Bilancio) |
| Abstract: | The abolition of the municipal property tax on owner-occupied dwellings accomplished in Italy in 2008 offers a quasi-natural experiment that allows for the identification of the presence of political budget cycles - the incentives for municipalities close to elections to manipulate policy outcome decisions. Our empirical analysis shows that the reform impacted on municipalities that in 2008 were in their pre-electoral year, by expanding the size of their budget in the form of an increase of current expenditure and fees and charges, but this did not occurred in municipalities that experienced their pre-electoral year before 2008. |
| Keywords: | political budget cycle, transfers, federal budget, property tax, fiscal reform, local elections |
| JEL: | C23 H71 H72 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipu:wpaper:48&r=cse |
| By: | Patrick K. O’Brien; Nuno Palma |
| Abstract: | The Bank Restriction Act of 1797 made legal the Bank of England’s suspension of the convertibility of its banknotes. The current historical consensus is that it was a result of the state's need to finance the war, France’s remonetisation, a loss of confidence in the English country banks, and a run on the Bank of England’s reserves. We argue that while these factors help us understand the timing of the Restriction period, they cannot explain its success. We deploy new long-term data which leads us to a complementary explanation: the policy succeeded thanks to the reputation of the Bank of England, achieved through a century of monetary stability. |
| Keywords: | Bank of England, financial revolution, fiat money, money supply, monetary policy commitment, reputation, and time-consistency, regime shift, financial sector growth |
| JEL: | N13 N23 N43 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgs:wpaper:67&r=cse |
| By: | Patrick K. O’Brien (London School of Economics); Nuno Palma (European University Institute; University of Groningen) |
| Abstract: | The Bank Restriction Act of 1797 made legal the Bank of England’s suspension of the convertibility of its banknotes. The current historical consensus is that it was a result of the state's need to finance the war, France’s remonetisation, a loss of confidence in the English country banks, and a run on the Bank of England’s reserves. We argue that while these factors help us understand the timing of the Restriction period, they cannot explain its success. We deploy new long-term data which leads us to a complementary explanation: the policy succeeded thanks to the reputation of the Bank of England, achieved through a century of monetary stability. |
| Keywords: | Bank of England, financial revolution, fiat money, money supply, monetary policy commitment, reputation, and time-consistency, regime shift, financial sector growth |
| JEL: | N13 N23 N43 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0100&r=cse |
| By: | Benjamin Eden (Vanderbilt University) |
| Abstract: | I use the Prescott (1975) hotels model to explain variations in price dispersion across items sold by supermarkets in Chicago. The effect of demand uncertainty on price dispersion is highly significant and quantitatively important: My estimates suggest that more than 40% of the cross sectional standard deviation of log prices is due to demand uncertainty. I also find that price dispersion measures are negatively correlated with the average price but are not negatively correlated with the revenues from selling the good (across stores and weeks) and with the number of stores that sell the good. Temporary sales are modeled as a reaction to "unwanted inventories" that are accumulated when the realization of demand is low. The effect of demand uncertainty on the frequency of temporary sales is also highly significant and quantitatively important: Items with more demand uncertainty tend to accumulate "unwanted inventories" more often and tend to have temporary sales more often. |
| Keywords: | Price Dispersion, Demand Uncertainty, Sequential Trade, temporary sales. |
| JEL: | D4 E3 |
| Date: | 2016–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:van:wpaper:vuecon-sub-16-00015&r=cse |
| By: | Tsagris, Michail |
| Abstract: | In compositional data, an observation is a vector with non-negative components which sum to a constant, typically 1. Data of this type arise in many areas, such as geology, archaeology, biology, economics and political science among others. The goal of this paper is to propose a new, divergence based, regression modelling technique for compositional data. To do so, a recently proved metric which is a special case of the Jensen-Shannon divergence is employed. A strong advantage of this new regression technique is that zeros are naturally handled. An example with real data and simulation studies are presented and are both compared with the log-ratio based regression suggested by Aitchison in 1986. |
| Keywords: | compositional data, Jensen-Shannon divergence, regression, zero values, φ-divergence |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2015–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72769&r=cse |
| By: | Chiu, Jonathan; Koeppl, Thorsten V |
| Abstract: | We study trading dynamics in an asset market where the quality of assets is private information and finding a counterparty takes time. When trading ceases in equilibrium as a response to an adverse shock to asset quality, a government can resurrect trading by buying up lemons which involves a financial loss. The optimal policy is centred around an announcement effect where trading starts already before the intervention for two reasons. First, delaying the intervention allows selling pressure to build up thereby improving the average quality of assets for sale. Second, intervening at a higher price increases the return from buying an asset of unknown quality. It is optimal to intervene immediately at the lowest price when the market is sufficiently important. For less important markets, when the shock to quality and search frictions are small, it is optimal to rely on the announcement effect. Here delaying the intervention and fostering the effect by intervening at the highest price tend to be complements. |
| Keywords: | Adverse selection, Search, Trading dynamics, Government asset purchases, Announcement effect, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:5206&r=cse |
| By: | Haile, Getinet Astatike (University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates if there is a link between workplace disability (WD) and job satisfaction (JS) in Britain using nationally representative linked data from WESR2011 and alternative empirical analyses. The results obtained indicate that in the private sector, workplaces with respondents with disabilities have significantly lower JS vis-à-vis workplaces without such respondents. JS is also found to decline with the percentage of respondents with disabilities in private sector workplaces with a mix of respondents with and without disabilities. Notably; the decline in JS found for private sector workplaces is specific to co-workers without disabilities therein. These, coupled with the significant positive (negative) relationship found between workplace JS and disability policies and practices for respondents with (without) disabilities in private sector workplaces, suggest that the sector may have to go some way towards dealing with issues of workplace disability more efficiently. |
| Keywords: | workplace disability, job satisfaction, linked data, Britain |
| JEL: | J14 J82 J7 I31 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10102&r=cse |
| By: | Richard Chisik (Department of Economics, Ryerson University, Toronto, Canada); Nazanin Behzadan (Department of Economics, Ryerson University, Toronto, Canada); ; |
| Abstract: | Abstract In this paper we show that an important determinant of a foreign transfer generating a Dutch disease effect is the income of the recipient. The marginal propensity to consume luxury services is larger for wealthier recipients who are more likely to receive the benefits of foreign aid than they are to receive remittances. In a three good model of international trade with production we show that foreign aid can generate a Dutch disease and remittances can foster economic growth. We empirically verify these hypotheses with data from a panel of data covering the years 1991-2009 while dealing with the issues of omitted variable bias and possible endogeneity of remittances. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rye:wpaper:wp064&r=cse |
| By: | Antman, Francisca M. (University of Colorado, Boulder); Duncan, Brian (University of Colorado Denver); Trejo, Stephen (University of Texas at Austin) |
| Abstract: | Numerous studies find that U.S.-born Hispanics differ significantly from non-Hispanic whites on important measures of human capital, including health. Nevertheless, almost all studies rely on subjective measures of ethnic self-identification to identify immigrants' U.S.-born descendants. This can lead to bias due to "ethnic attrition," which occurs whenever a U.S.-born descendant of a Hispanic immigrant fails to self-identify as Hispanic. This paper shows that Mexican American ethnic attritors are generally more likely to display health outcomes closer to those of non-Hispanic whites. This biases conventional estimates of Mexican American health away from suggesting patterns of assimilation and convergence with non-Hispanic whites. |
| Keywords: | assimilation, ethnic attrition, identity |
| JEL: | J15 J12 I14 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10062&r=cse |
| By: | Laura Kudrna; Georgios Kavetsos; Chloe Foy; Paul Dolan |
| Abstract: | How achievement makes people feel depends upon counterfactual thoughts about what could have been. One body of evidence for this comes from studies of observer ratings of Olympians’ happiness, which suggests that category-based counterfactual thoughts affect the perceived happiness of Olympians. Silver medallists are less happy than bronze medallists, arguably because silver medallists think about how they could have won gold, and bronze medallists feel lucky to be on the podium at all. We contribute to this literature by showing that the effect of category-based counterfactual thoughts on Olympians’ happiness depends on the margin by which athletes secured their medal. Although gold and bronze medallists appeared happier the better they performed, silver medallists were less happy when they were closer to winning gold. This suggests silver medallists feel disappointed relative to gold medallists but that bronzes do not feel particularly fortunate relative to non-medal winners. Teams were rated as happier than individual athletes and Olympians happier than Paralympians. Observers’ ethnic and gender similarity to athletes negatively influence happiness ratings; whilst observers’ self-reported happiness has a negligible effect on ratings. We integrate these findings with prior literature on counterfactual thinking and the determinants of happiness, and suggest avenues for future research. |
| Keywords: | Counterfactual thinking, Close calls, Relative status, Happiness, Olympic Games |
| JEL: | D60 I31 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgs:wpaper:66&r=cse |
| By: | Christoph Freudenberg (Institute of Public Finance Freiburg University); Tamás Berki (Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Central Bank of Hungary); Ádám Reiff (Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Central Bank of Hungary) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of Hungarian pension reforms between 2009-2012 on the adequacy and long-term fiscal stability of the Hungarian public pension system. For the adequacy analysis, we use a micro simulation model to project future initial pension levels relative to future gross wages. For the analysis of fiscal stability, we use a generational accounting-based macro model to forecast future yearly cash balances and calculate implicit pension liability (IPL) indicators. We find that major recent reforms have stabilized the public pension system until around 2035, but after this, mainly due to unfavorable demographic developments, we project increasing deficits that reach about 4% of GDP by 2060. |
| Keywords: | Pension reforms, Sustainability of pension systems, Micro simulation |
| JEL: | H55 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2016/2&r=cse |
| By: | Petru POPESCU (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | In the present article I propose to address some of the problems of social exclusion of older people in the context of the social protection of this category of people is insufficiently treated, and especially solved by the Romanian state. Financial and material resources allocated to social protection of older people in Romania are insufficient and the government has applied a strategy to eliminate or at least mitigate the appearance of social exclusion of older people who appear in the current context as a real burden to society through the material problems, health and social inclusion. Elderly people have serious problems and the Romanian company offers very few alternatives for solving multiple problems that seniors face. It is painful that after a lifetime of work for the benefit of society, the same society that the person you refuse to give you elderly and social exclusion. Financial assistance almost nonexistent, the social and the lack of social inclusion efforts make the elderly a segment that is one unattractive to society and the phenomenon tends to increase in the next period when the ratio between the active and the retired will seriously damage the detriment of persons elderly. I conducted a study of specific case in which I presented the social situation of five persons, elderly, each with conditions somewhat different in terms of living standards and material conditions and financial capabilities and we have identified the individual needs of the sample investigated for solving their problems and improving their social protection. Without creating a viable system of social protection for elderly and I think this is urgency in Romanian society will witness further marginalize a growing group of people with needs increasing but resources allocated in sharp decline. It is inadmissible to develop strategies for solving social assistance to the elderly and to see that is increasingly less to solve this problem. |
| Keywords: | strategy of social protection of the elderly, financial policies of social assistance, social exclusion and inclusion methods in older people, raising living standards and material and financial resources allocated to the elderly |
| JEL: | I23 G18 H55 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eub:wpaper:2016-03&r=cse |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Pacific Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Pacific Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | A business environment that supports private sector-led growth is the key to long-term sustainable poverty reduction. This has been recognized by successive Solomon Islands’ governments who have implemented fundamental reforms that have modernized the environment for doing business in the country with some far-reaching reforms. This private sector assessment (PSA) analyzes the reforms to date and suggests further policy actions and priorities in the areas of: • Business law reform, • Promoting economic opportunities for women, • Infrastructure, • State-owned enterprises, • The tax system, and • The financial system. The policy recommendations in the PSA provide the basis for discussions between the Government of Solomon Islands, the private sector, and other stakeholders regarding future reform priorities that will contribute to the country’s resources being used most productively. This PSA was produced by the Pacific Private Sector Development Initiative—a regional technical assistance facility cofinanced by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Government of Australia, and the Government of New Zealand. |
| Keywords: | Solomon Islands, private sector, policy reform, policy development, infrastructure, state-owned enterprise reform, public-private partnerships, tax system reform, financial system reform, Pacific Private Sector Development Institute, Paul Holden |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt167967-2&r=cse |
| By: | CAI, YIFEI |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically analyze the nonlinear relation between real output per capital and public debt by employing threshold cointegration method based on ARDL model. Empirical results show that there exists a threshold cointegration relationship between government debt and real output per capital. In case of the empirical results, cutting government debt could boost economic growth in the long term. However, the short term variation of government debt makes little impact on real output per capital. Comparatively speaking, human capital and investment rate and trade openness make larger influence on real output per capital. From the perspective of economic policy, the government should take full advantage of the fiscal policy to cut the government debt with the operation space of monetary policy being compressed. |
| Keywords: | ARDL threshold cointegration method; Economic growth; Public debt; Policy Governance |
| JEL: | E52 E62 H63 O47 |
| Date: | 2016–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72783&r=cse |
| By: | Vahagn Galstyan (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Adnan Velic (Dublin Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of public debt and distortionary labour taxation on the long-run behaviour of Irish relative non-traded goods prices. We highlight that higher public debt, acting through higher taxes, has an equivocal impact on the relative supply of non-traded goods and, correspondingly, relative prices. Our empirical analysis for Ireland suggests that taxes and public debt play significant roles in the long run, comoving negatively with the relative price of non-tradables. Accordingly, shifts in public debt and taxation bear implications for the country's international price competitiveness. |
| Keywords: | labour taxation, distortionary, government spending, public debt, real exchange rate, relative non-traded prices |
| JEL: | F00 F41 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1016&r=cse |
| By: | Alexandra D'Onofrio (ASSONIME); Raoul Minetti (Michigan State University); Pierluigi Murro (LUMSA University) |
| Abstract: | Using rich data from the Italian local credit markets (provinces), this paper investigates the impact of local banking development on income inequality and the role of the socioeconomic structure in this link. Exploiting the Italian historical banking regulationtoin strument for the local presence of bank branches, we find that local banking development mitigates income inequality and poverty. However, the finance-inequality nexus manifests itself only in relatively advanced areas, suggesting important non-linearities. When we study the structural channels of influence, we obtain evidence that banking development can reduce inequality by affecting geographical mobility and urbanization, while it has modest effects through the development of material infrastructures and human capital. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality; Financial development; Socio economic structure |
| JEL: | G21 G38 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsa:wpaper:wpc08&r=cse |
| By: | Kussel, Gerhard |
| Abstract: | Using panel data originating from two extensive surveys conducted in 2012 and 2014, we investigate German households' adaptation behavior in response to indoor heat stress during summer months. Providing detailed information of household characteristics, behavior and technical equipment, our unique database allows us to estimate a random-eff ects probit model on households' vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The estimates indicate that even moderate increases in temperatures are suffi cient to trigger investments in adaptation measures: While the propensity to adapt is heterogeneous across socio-economic groups, an increase of one degree Celsius in average summer temperature is associated with a rise of 2.3 percentage points in adaptation probability. |
| Keywords: | climate change,heat stress,panel data,discrete choice models |
| JEL: | D12 Q54 R22 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:625&r=cse |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | Inclusive businesses are commercially viable business models that provide in-scale innovative and systemic solutions to problems relevant to the lives of low-income people. Inclusive business companies often involve women in their value chain and provide specific services that help low-income women. This report assesses the extent to which inclusive business models promote women's economic empowerment. Examples come from the inclusive business portfolios of Asian Development Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and International Finance Corporation. The report finds that inclusive businesses are indeed bringing positive change to women’s lives and that addressing gender-based constraints also yields business benefits. However, a company’s financial return and its social impact can be maximized only if companies understand and address systemic issues of gender inequality. |
| Keywords: | inclusive business, women, low-income |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt167963-2&r=cse |
| By: | Ole Wilms (University of Zurich); Karl Schmedders (University of Zurich); Walt Pohl (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes both the existence of solutions to long-run risk asset pricing models as well as the practicality of approximating these solutions by the Campbell-Shiller log-linearization. We prove a simple relative existence result that is sufficient to show that the original Bansal-Yaron model has a solution. Log-linearization fares less well: we find that for very persistent processes the approximation errors in model moments can be as large as 50%, and can get such basic facts wrong as the direction of the yield curve. The increasing complexity of state-of-the-art asset-pricing models can lead to complex nonlinear solutions with considerable curvature, which in turn can have sizable economic implications. Therefore, these models require numerical solution methods, such as the projection methods employed in this paper, that can adequately describe the higher-order equilibrium features. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:306&r=cse |
| By: | Vincent Salaun (CRET-LOG - Centre de Recherche sur le Transport et la Logistique - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille 2 - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université); François Fulconis (UAPV - Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse, CRET-LOG - Centre de Recherche sur le Transport et la Logistique - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille 2 - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université); Nathalie Fabbe-Costes (CRET-LOG - Centre de Recherche sur le Transport et la Logistique - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille 2 - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | Les festivals de musiques jouent un rôle important dans l'animation des territoires et leur apportent des retombées économiques non négligeables. Dès lors, la pérennisation de ces événements constitue un enjeu tant pour les organisateurs que pour les sites qui les accueillent. Dans cette optique, il est important de mieux comprendre ces organisations très particulières. Les festivals musicaux sont des structures paradoxales. Ils sont à la fois temporaires et durables. Inclus dans un projet de recherche qui porte sur la pérennisation des activités de production de services événementiels, cette communication propose de qualifier les festivals musicaux d'Organisations Temporaires Pulsatoires (OTP). Le fonctionnement de ces "organisations-événements" est étudié au travers d'une revue de littérature focalisée sur les structures en réseau et sur les organisations temporaires. Après avoir présenté une typologie d'organisations temporaires, un raisonnement par analogie permet d'établir un parallèle entre les structures déployées entre autres dans le cadre des jeux olympiques et celles des festivals musicaux. Un cycle organisationnel en quatre étapes est mis en lumière et s'articule autour de l'oscillation entre deux états de la structure permettant d'identifier deux phases transitoires. L'étude du cas du festival du Bout du Monde de Crozon (29) met en évidence une convergence entre les éléments théoriques et ceux issus du terrain. Elle permet d'apporter des éléments de réponses sur le caractère pulsatoire de l'organisation ainsi que sur les mécanismes qui régissent ces pulsations. Les données empiriques soulignent aussi le rôle central qu'occupe la logistique dans la phase transitoire entre un état dormant et un état activé de l'OTP qui apparait comme l'un des principaux facteurs de réussite d'un festival. Si la recherche permet de mieux comprendre le fonctionnement des festivals musicaux et met en lumières les mécanismes qui semblent améliorer leur efficacité et garantir leur pérennité, les résultats obtenus mériteront d'être approfondis par d'autres études de cas complémentaires. |
| Keywords: | Festivals musicaux,Mécanismes pulsatoires,Organisations Temporaires Pulsatoires (OTP),Projets récurrents,Structures en réseau |
| Date: | 2015–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01309972&r=cse |
| By: | Crespo, Juan A.; Sanchez-Gabites, J.J |
| Abstract: | Suppose that a number of equally qualified agents want to choose collectively an element from a set of alternatives defined by equality constraints. Each agent may well prefer a different element, and the social choice problem consists in deciding whether it is possible to design a rule to aggregate all the agents’ preferences into a social choice in an egalitarian way. In this paper we obtain criteria that solve this problem in terms of conditions that are explicitly computable from the constraints. As a theoretical consequence, we show that the only way to avoid running into a social choice paradox consists in designing (if possible) the set of alternatives satisfying certain optimality condition on the constraints, that is, in the natural way from the point of view of economics. |
| Keywords: | Social choice, optimization, rational design. |
| JEL: | C60 D63 D71 |
| Date: | 2016–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72757&r=cse |
| By: | Arun, Shoba (Manchester Metropolitan University); Annim, Samuel (University of Cape Coast, Ghana); Arun, Thankom Gopinath (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | The paper focuses on women's financial behaviour in their use of higher order financial services in Ghana and South Africa, inviting a gendered and social analysis of deconstructing financial behaviour. Women in South Africa are more likely to use general financial products than in Ghana, though in general more men use advanced investment products. Race has an important effect in South Africa. Much of these gender differentials is related to differences in gendered behaviour, yet generalizations on how gender relates to risk aversion is not supported. Rather non-financial approaches may explain how social relations propel women's decision to prioritise the use of financial services as a result of ascribed gender and social roles. These findings contribute to the debates on the feminisation of finance, as women are increasingly interpellated as financial subjects, manifesting the gendered organisation of global financial structures that operate on gendered norms and behaviour. |
| Keywords: | gender, access to finance, risk, Ghana and South Africa |
| JEL: | O16 O55 A14 B54 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10099&r=cse |
| By: | Krupa Mehta |
| Abstract: | The store brands, otherwise known as private labels, are changing the future of modern trade outlets in India. Started on a low key profile, such as low price, low quality and limited movement, the store brands have gone a long way in establishing its credentials. The private labels have 50 % or more than 50% market share in many parts of the developed world. The private labels are pervasive in personal care, home care, processed food, groceries and consumer durables etc. Key words: FMCG, Grocery, Private brands, Retail chains |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-06-08&r=cse |
| By: | Andrea M. Buffa (Boston University); Suleyman Basak (London Business School) |
| Abstract: | We study the dynamic decision making of a financial institution in the presence of a novel implementation friction that gives rise to operational risk. We distinguish between internal and external operational risks depending on whether the institution has control over them. Internal operational risk naturally arises in the context of model risk, as the institution exposes itself to operational errors whenever it updates and improves its investment model. In this case, it is no longer optimal to implement the best model available, thus leaving scope for endogenous deviation from it, and hence model sophistication. We show that the optimal exposure to operational risk may well become decreasing in the level of internal operational risk, which in turn makes the exposure to market risk less volatile. We uncover that financial constraints interact with operational risk, whether internal or external, and prompt the institution to always adopt a more sophisticated model. While such constraints are always detrimental when operational risk is internal, they may be beneficial, despite inducing an excessive level of sophistication, when it is external. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:352&r=cse |
| By: | Buckles, Kasey (University of Notre Dame); Guldi, Melanie (University of Central Florida) |
| Abstract: | Early term birth is defined as birth at 37 or 38 weeks gestation. While infants born early term are not considered premature, the medical literature suggests that they have an increased risk of serious adverse health outcomes compared to infants born at term (39 or 40 weeks). Despite these known harms, we document a rise in early term births in the United States from 1989 to the mid-2000's, followed by a decline in recent years. We posit that the recent decline in early term births has been driven by changes in medical practice advocated by American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists recommendations and programs such as the March of Dimes' "Worth the Wait" campaign. We first show that this pattern cannot be attributed to changes in the demographic composition of mothers. We next exploit county-level variation in the timing of these changes in medical practice and show that early term inductions lead to an increased risk of precipitous labor, lower birth weights and an increased risk of birth injury and required ventilation. Our results suggest that reductions in early term inductions can explain about one-third of the overall increase in birth weights for term births between 2010 and 2013. |
| Keywords: | infant health, maternal health, birth weight, induction of labor, early elective delivery |
| JEL: | J13 I18 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10082&r=cse |
| By: | Roy, Sutanuka (London School of Economics); Singh, Prakarsh (Amherst College) |
| Abstract: | Using a large-scale novel panel dataset (2005–14) on schools from the Indian state of Assam, we test for the impact of violent conflict on female students' enrollment rates. We find that a doubling of average killings in a district-year leads to a 13 per cent drop in girls' enrollment rate with school fixed effects. Additionally, results remain similar when using an alternative definition of conflict from a different dataset. Gender differential responses are more negative for lower grades, rural schools, poorer districts, and for schools run by local and private unaided bodies. |
| Keywords: | conflict, education, gender discrimination, human capital, India |
| JEL: | I2 J1 O1 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10092&r=cse |
| By: | Hans Diefenbacher; Benjamin Held; Dorothee Rodenhäuser; Roland Zieschank |
| Abstract: | Die vorliegende Studie geht von der These aus, dass das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) als Wohlstandsmaß nicht geeignet ist und daher zumindest einer Ergänzung bedarf. Ein von den Autoren schon 2009 entwickeltes alternatives Wohlstandsmaß, der Nationale Wohlfahrtsindex (NWI), wird erläutert und dem BIP gegenübergestellt. Erstmals können hier Ergebnisse des NWI bis zum Jahr 2014 präsentiert werden. Dabei zeigt sich, dass BIP und NWI insbesondere ab der Jahrtausendwende deutlich unterschiedliche Entwicklungen aufweisen. Während zwischen 1991 und 1999 beide Indikatoren weitgehend parallel ansteigen, sinkt der NWI während der Phase zwischen 1999 und 2005 stark, bei weiter fortgesetzter Steigerung des BIP. Zwischen 2005 und 2014 verändert sich der NWI kaum, auch nicht in den Wirtschaftskrisenjahren 2008/2009, in denen das BIP einen Einbruch erfährt, ansonsten aber deutlich weiter ansteigt. Aufgrund der hohen Bedeutung der Einkommensverteilung zur Erklärung der Unterschiede wird deren Einfluss und Messbarkeit gesondert dargestellt. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:studie:48-2016&r=cse |
| By: | König, Johannes; Schröder, Carsten |
| Abstract: | We solve the problem of a social planner who seeks to minimize inequality via transfers with a fixed public budget in a distribution of exogenously given incomes. The appropriate solution method depends on the objective function: If it is convex, as in the case of the absolute mean deviation, it can be solved by an interior-point algorithm. If it is quasiconvex, as in case of the Gini coefficient, the bisection method can be used. We implement the procedures using artificial and real-world data, and show that the optimal transfer scheme need not comply with a transfer scheme that perfectly equalizes incomes at the bottom of the distribution. |
| Keywords: | redistribution,public transfers,inequality,optimization methods,interior-point algorithm,bisection method |
| JEL: | C61 D63 H23 H53 I38 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201616&r=cse |
| By: | Richard Bird (University of Toronto, Department of Economics); Michael Smart (University of Toronto, Department of Economics); Jorge Martinez-Vazquez |
| Abstract: | The introduction of the VAT in Canada, initially in the form of the federal GST in 1991, did not signify a major change in the tax mix even after most provincial sales taxes also became VATs. Canadians do not pay much if any more in taxes on their consumption than they did 25 years ago. Although the GST and its provincial companions are not perfect, the evidence is that they create fewer barriers to investment and growth than the taxes they replaced so that Canadians appear as a whole to be better off than they were before setting off down the road to VAT. Nonetheless, perhaps in part because the VAT in Canada unlike in other countries is generally quoted separately (like retail sales taxes in the US) and hence highly visible, it continues to be politically unpopular and considered undesirably regressive. The major contribution of this paper is to examine in some detail and with some new evidence the incidence of Canada’s sales and excise taxes, a question that has received surprisingly little analysis. Because the share of total consumption taxes coming from sales rather than excise taxes has increased, these taxes are now less regressive than they were before the move to VAT, regardless of how incidence is measured. More importantly, there are solid arguments for using consumption than income as a basis for evaluating the progressivity of consumption taxes, and on this measure the GST and its companion taxes appear to be mildly progressive. However because the remaining excises are quite regressive even on this basis, on the whole the sales and excise system remains mildly regressive. |
| Keywords: | sales tax, excise tax, value-added tax, incidence, progressivity |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper1605&r=cse |
| By: | Olivier Baly (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Frédéric Kletz (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jean-Claude Sardas (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Situated cognition and neo-institutional theory have revived two fruitful allegories of collective sensemaking within organizations: Plato's Simile of the Cave and Max Weber's Iron Cage. Scholarly efforts to combine these two approaches have converged towards a shared vision of collective sensemaking as an interaction between institutionalized cognitive schemas and contextual grounding. Nevertheless, the mechanisms framing and shaping the outcome of this contextual cognitive interaction, i.e. the collective meanings actually produced and institutionalized, have remained largely unexplored. We aim to address this common gap by examining how the interplay of institutional and contextual factors determined the collective sensemaking of an emergent occupational group, namely, management controllers in French hospitals. Comparing the results from a two-year focus group study held in a community of practice and survey data from 163 respondents, we draw consistent findings indicating that a similar position within supervision micro-structures, which we label isothetism, contributed to shaping the group's transactive memory and to framing the institutionalization of its cognitive schemas. We conclude by discussing the implications of isothetism for future research on the meaningfulness of organizations. |
| Keywords: | Collective sensemaking,situated cognition,neo-institutional theory |
| Date: | 2016–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01305315&r=cse |
| By: | Julius Bonart; Fabrizio Lillo |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a model of liquidity provision in financial markets by adapting the Madhavan, Richardson, and Roomans (1997) price formation model to realistic order books with quote discretization and liquidity rebates. We postulate that liquidity providers observe a fundamental price which is continuous, efficient, and can assume values outside the interval spanned by the best quotes. We confirm the predictions of our price formation model with extensive empirical tests on large high-frequency datasets of 100 liquid Nasdaq stocks. Finally we use the model to propose an estimator of the fundamental price based on the rebate adjusted volume imbalance at the best quotes and we empirically show that it outperforms other simpler estimators. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1608.00756&r=cse |
| By: | Chirwa, Themba Gilbert; Odhiambo, Nicholas Mbaya |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to empirically investigate the relevance of exogenous growth models in explaining economic growth in three Southern African countries, using the recently developed ARDL bounds-testing approach. Furthermore, the relevance of the convergence hypothesis in these study countries is tested using an extended exogenous growth model. The study results reveal that the predictions of the Solow and augmented Solow growth models are consistent in the three study countries, and that the convergence hypothesis holds. However, when additional factors are taken into account in exogenous growth models, the response of income per capita due to changes in investment and human capital development is slow in economies with low income per capita, such as Malawi and Zambia, compared to South Africa, which is ranked as an economy with a high income per capita. This study has important policy implications in these study countries. These implications include the need for policy makers to ensure that macroeconomic stability is encouraged by reducing government consumption, inflation, and population growth; and by promoting trade in order to allow for the diffusion of technologies from abroad. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: Exogenous Growth Models; Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model; Economic Growth; Malawi; Zambia; South Africa |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uza:wpaper:21083&r=cse |
| By: | Sandrine Mathy (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Patrick Criqui (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Katharina Knoop (Wuppertal Institute for Climate Environment and Energy - Wuppertal Institute for Climate Environment and Energy); Manfred Fischedick (Wuppertal Institute for Climate Environment and Energy - Wuppertal Institute for Climate Environment and Energy); Sascha Samadi (Wuppertal Institute for Climate Environment and Energy - Wuppertal Institute for Climate Environment and Energy) |
| Abstract: | Contrary to 'static' pathways that are defined once for all, this article deals with the need for policymakers to adopt a dynamic adaptive policy pathway for managing decarbonization over the period of implementation. When choosing a pathway as the most desirable option, it is important to keep in mind that each decarbonization option relies on the implementation of specific policies and instruments. But given structural, effectiveness and timing uncertainties specific to each policy option they may fail in delivering the expected outcomes in time. The possibility of diverging from an initial decarbonization trajectory to another one without incurring excessive costs should therefore be a strategic element in the design of an appropriate decarbonization strategy. The article relies on initial experiences in France and Germany on decarbonization planning and implementation to define elements for managing dynamic adjustment issues. Such an adaptive pathway strategy should combine long-lived incentives to form consistent expectations, as well as adaptive policies to improve overall robustness and resilience. We sketch key elements of a monitoring process based on an ex ante definition of leading indicators that should be assessed regularly and combined with signposts and trigger values at the subsector level. |
| Keywords: | dynamic adaptive pathways , decarbonization strategy,mitigation scenarios , France , Germany |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01310236&r=cse |
| By: | Rose Cunningham; Christian Friedrich |
| Abstract: | The 2007–09 global financial crisis has led policy-makers around the world, including central banks, to refocus their efforts to promote financial stability. As part of this process, central banks became quite active in supporting financial stability in a variety of ways, such as publicly sharing their assessments of financial system vulnerabilities and risks and helping to strengthen regulation, supervision and macroprudential measures. However, the use of monetary policy instruments for managing financial stability risks is more widely debated because central banks may face a trade-off between attaining their inflation targets in a timely manner and exacerbating financial stability risks. Recent research suggests that central banks that tend to have stronger financial stability mandates and less influence over regulatory and macroprudential tools are more likely to use monetary policy to address financial stability risks. |
| Keywords: | Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies |
| JEL: | E5 G01 G28 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:16-15&r=cse |
| By: | Pietro Battiston; Denvil Duncan; Simona Gamba; Alessandro Santoro |
| Abstract: | Tax evasion is a major problem faced by governments across the world, and many strategies have been attempted to minimize its extent. One such strategy is the “fiscal blitz”, consisting in clusters of unexpected tax verification activities targeting businesses. Blitzes have been widely implemented in Italy: the ones taking place in the last years shared many common features, but differed in the level of publicity they received on the media. We use confidential data on Value Added Tax payments at the sector level in two cities to estimate the effect of such publicity on tax compliance of local sellers. By employing a Difference-in-Differences identification strategy, we find that the publicity of the blitz has a positive effect on fiscal declarations made shortly after. The results suggest that increasing awareness on future audits via the media can be an important instrument in the hands of tax authorities. |
| Keywords: | Tax evasion, Natural experiment, Audit publicity |
| JEL: | H32 K34 E62 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fbk:wpaper:2016-10&r=cse |
| By: | Clarke, Damian (Universidad de Santiago de Chile); Oreffice, Sonia (University of Surrey); Quintana-Domeque, Climent (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | We study the determinants of season of birth of the first child, for white married women aged 25-45 in the US, using birth certificate and Census data. We also analyze stated preferences for season of birth using our own Amazon Mechanical Turk survey. The prevalence of quarters 2 and 3 is significantly related to mother's age, education, and smoking status during pregnancy. Moreover, those who did not use assisted reproductive technology present a higher prevalence of these births. The frequency of April to September births is also higher and more strongly related to mother's age in states where cold weather is more severe, and varies with mother's occupation, exhibiting a particularly strong positive association with working in "education, training, and library" occupations. Remarkably, this relationship between season and weather disappears for mothers in "education, training, and library" occupations, revealing that season of birth is a matter of choice and preferences, not simply a biological mechanism. We find that the average willingness to pay for season of birth of mothers who report to have chosen season of birth is 19% of financial wealth while for those who report not to have chosen it is only 2% and not statistically different from zero, with the former always targeting an April to September birth. In addition, the average willingness to pay for season of birth is higher among individuals, and parents, in "education, training, and library" occupations. We also document that the top-3 reasons for choosing season of birth are mother's wellbeing, child's wellbeing, and job requirements, while those in "education, training, and library" occupations rank job requirements as the most important reason. Finally, we present evidence that babies born between April and September have on average better health at birth even conditional on the observable maternal characteristics which predict selection. |
| Keywords: | quarter of birth, fertility timing, pregnancy, first birth, teachers, birth outcomes, willingness to pay, NVSS, ACS, Amazon Mechanical Turk |
| JEL: | I10 J01 J13 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10072&r=cse |
| By: | Antara Ghosh; Apurbaa Ghose Saha |
| Abstract: | Amongst all adjustments, marital adjustment is an important one, as marriage, in reality, is a way of living. The success of marriage depends upon the adjustment on the part of both the partners involved. But marital adjustment on a wife’s part is mainly triggered by the issue that whether she is a housewife or a working woman. With the rise in the number of dual career families, the adjustment and marital relationship are major challenges for the married working women in those families. However, housewives also face challenges of adjustment in their marital relationship. The objectives of this study are (a) to study the perceived adjustment pattern of housewives and married working women in the areas of home, health, social, emotional and occupational, (b) to study the perceived adjustment pattern of housewives with less than 5years of married life and housewives with more than 5 years of married life, and (c) to study the perceived adjustment pattern of married working women with less than 5 years of married life and married working women with more than 5 years of married life. Bell’s Adjustment Inventory, a 160 items inventory assessing the individual’s adjustment pattern in 5 situations such as - home, health, social, emotion and occupation, has been administered to 60 married women. Results reveals that perceived adjustment pattern significantly differs between housewives and married working women and the review elaborated the previous knowledge contribution and this study has attempted to provide an insight on future research directions. Key words: Study, Housewives, Women |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-06-06&r=cse |
| By: | Drobyshevsky Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kazakova Maria (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Russia’s officials made multiple statements in 2015, saying Russia had hit the bottom of its recessionary valley. For example, a few top members of Russia’s government and representatives of the Russian business community (in particular, First Vice-Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov and Sberbank CEO/Chairman German Gref) said in May 2015 the current crisis in Russia had reached its peak and the economy was expected to see some recovery. In late 2015, Russia’s Minister of Economic Development Alexey Ulyukaev said the recession was over and the bottom was hit. At the same time, Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development (MED) and some other international organizations – such as Bank of America, JP Morgan, IMF and World Bank – upgraded (not for long though) their 2015 forecast for Russia. The Ministry of Economic Development made similar statements, in particular in July and October 2015. Andrei Klepach, Chief Economist of Vnesheconombank, questioned these statements, noting in late August that the bottom was still to be reached, and he expected Russia to continue facing a downturn in investment and construction sectors, while budget and consumer demand ceased to be the drivers of positive growth rates in economy. As early as December, Herman Gref predicted that Russia’s economy would face a downturn in 2016, and then it might “decay” unless across-the-board reforms are undertaken |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, GDP |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F15 F40 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-262&r=cse |
| By: | Margarita Gelepithis |
| Abstract: | Market-heavy welfare systems, in which low or moderate state benefits are topped up by private welfare arrangements, are expected to undermine political support for the extension of social rights and perpetuate benefit fragmentation over time. And where low state benefits are means-tested, political support is expected to be particularly prone to erosion. In this paper I develop the argument that the combination of private pension insurance and means-testing does not always perpetuate fragmentation. Rather, it structures the policy preferences of pension industry representatives and right-of-centre parties such that these actors push for reforms to make the state pension more universal. I make my argument by examining the reform history of nine market-heavy pension systems in the three decades since 1980. A fuzzy- set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) maps the conditions under which universalizing reforms have occurred, and two case studies link institutional conditions to reform outcomes via the policy preferences of key political actors. |
| Keywords: | universalism, dualization, means-testing, private insurance, pension reform |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eiq:eileqs:114&r=cse |
| By: | Pavneet Kaur; Naresh Singla |
| Abstract: | The emerging institutional arrangements such as CF are promoted on the plea that these share production and marketing risks of the producers and in a way these are seen as a tool to diversify the Indian agriculture and making the farmers’ viable. However, a reality check on the CF arrangements with the farmers points a gloomy picture. The present models are not completely integrating the small and marginal farmers in the system. Most of the studies show that the companies prefer to work with mainly medium and large farmers in contracts. Key words: Farming, contract, contract farming |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-06-11&r=cse |
| By: | Stephen Golub; Aly Mbaye; Hanyu Chwe (Swarthmore College; Professor of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Disappointing job creation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), despite improved economic growth, is drawing greater attention to the labor market. Recent research has highlighted the paucity of formal employment and large disparities between formal and informal sector incomes. Formal private sector wage employment has grown too slowly to offset declines in public sector employment and to keep up with labor force growth, so employment remains overwhelmingly informal, with very low wages, no benefits or job security, and hazardous working conditions. The question arises as to whether labor market regulations play a role in limiting formal sector employment creation. We combine quantitative and qualitative assessments of labor-market regulations in SSA, and compare them to countries in other regions, particularly Asia, using indicators of labor market restrictions around the world, and conducting case studies of selected countries. We carried out an in-depth study of Senegal based on interviews and original data collection, and less detailed studies of Ethiopia and Ghana in SSA and Bangladesh and China in Asia. Our main conclusion is that labor market regulations are a less important obstacle than lack of infrastructure and general weaknesses in the business climate, but do contribute to holding back formal employment growth in Senegal and other SSA countries. |
| Keywords: | Labor market regulations, Sub-Saharan Africa, informal & formal employment, relative unit labor costs, manufacturing |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:201505&r=cse |
| By: | Simon Bittmann (CSO - Centre de sociologie des organisations - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Cet article étudie l’impact des revenus du travail sur le temps de travail domestique des femmes françaises au sein de 1 674 couples bi‑actifs occupés à temps plein, à partir de l’enquête Emploi du temps 2009‑2010. Nous testons deux théories visant à interpréter le rapport entre les ressources économiques des conjoints et le temps alloué aux tâches domestiques. L’approche « absolue » explique la diminution du temps que les femmes y consacrent par l’augmentation de leur salaire, indépendamment de celui du conjoint, alors que l’approche « relative » met en avant le rôle des salaires relatifs comme mesure du pouvoir de négociation des femmes au sein du couple. Nous montrons que l’effet non linéaire observé pour le salaire relatif, interprété en termes de « performance de genre » dans la littérature, est dû à une mauvaise caractérisation de la relation entre salaire et temps de travail domestique. Celle‑ci est très fortement non linéaire pour les femmes, indépendamment de leur pouvoir de négociation : à mesure que le salaire augmente, l’élasticité de leur temps de travail domestique au salaire se tasse. Il semble ainsi y avoir un niveau minimal de tâches incompressible pour les femmes, et cette diminution s’opère avant tout par une coupe dans les tâches ménagères et la cuisine ; le temps consacré aux enfants est insensible aux variations de revenus. La « relève » des hommes n’est que très partielle, et ne présente pas de forme non linéaire. De même, le recours à des services extérieurs explique très peu cette diminution ; il semble que les femmes adaptent avant tout leurs « attentes » par des modifications du volume global de production domestique. Ceci entraîne des changements du volume relatif de tâches effectué : une augmentation du poids relatif de la cuisine par rapport au ménage, et de « s’occuper » des enfants par rapport aux autres tâches. |
| Keywords: | Travail domestique,Salaire des femmes,Genre |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01309219&r=cse |
| By: | Gustav A. Horn; Peter Hohlfeld; Sabine Stephan; Thomas Theobald; Silke Tober |
| Abstract: | Die Brexit-Entscheidung im Vereinigten Königreich dürfte 2016 und stärker noch 2017 den ohnehin nur mäßigen Aufschwung in Deutschland und im Euroraum schwächen. Die konjunkturelle Dynamik der übrigen Weltwirtschaft bleibt im Prognosezeitraum verhalten. Die Erholung im Euroraum setzt sich vor dem Hintergrund eines etwas gelockerten fiskalischen Restriktionskurses fort. Sie ist aber nicht durchgreifend und vor allem nicht selbsttragend. Angesichts der erhöhten Unsicherheit und der Verwerfungen durch den bevorstehenden Brexit erhält das Wachstum im Euroraum einen zusätzlichen Dämpfer und dürfte 2016 und 2017 nur 1,6 % bzw. 1,2 % betragen. Auch die moderate konjunkturelle Dynamik in Deutschland wird im Prognosezeitraum etwas schwächer verlaufen als zuvor. Wachstumstreiber bleibt der private Konsum, der von steigenden Löhnen bei zunehmender Beschäftigung und von dem niedrigen Ölpreis profitiert. Die Ausrüstungsinvestitionen, die trotz der günstigen Finanzierungsbedingungen bisher nicht deutlich an Schwung gewannen, verlangsamen sich unter dem Eindruck einer flacheren Exportentwicklung und der spürbar gestiegenen Unsicherheit. Der Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts wird im Jahresdurchschnitt 2016 1,6 % betragen, 2017 nur noch 1,3 %. Die Arbeitslosenquote liegt bei 6,2 % (2017: 7,0 %) und die Verbraucherpreise steigen nur verhalten um 0,3 % (2017: 1,2 %). |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:report:115-2016&r=cse |
| By: | Marie Masclet de Barbarin (CEFF - Centre d'Etudes Fiscales et Financières - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | Il en va parfois de certaines notions juridiques comme de certaines évidences : à force de les avoir toujours connues, nul ne songe plus à en critiquer la pertinence, le bien-fondé ou tout simplement l'obsolescence. La notion de dépenses et de charges somptuaires fait ainsi partie de notre paysage fiscal et semble prospérer depuis plus de 50 ans sans véritable remise en cause ou adaptation propre à la faire évoluer au regard des nouvelles pratiques des entreprises du 21 ème siècle. Codifiée à l'article 39-4 du CGI, cette règle, rappelons-le, interdit la déductibilité du bénéfice de l'entreprise des frais qualifiés de somptuaires 1 : « Qu'elles soient supportées directement par l'entreprise ou sous forme d'allocations forfaitaires ou de remboursements de frais, sont exclues des charges déductibles pour l'établissement de l'impôt, d'une part, les dépenses et charges de toute nature ayant trait à l'exercice de la chasse ainsi qu'à l'exercice non professionnel de la pêche et, d'autre part, les charges, à l'exception de celles ayant un caractère social, résultant de l'achat, de la location ou de toute autre opération faite en vue d'obtenir la disposition de résidences de plaisance ou d'agrément, ainsi que de l'entretien de ces résidences ; les dépenses et charges ainsi définies comprennent notamment les amortissements ». |
| Keywords: | droit fiscal, charges somptuaires, fiscalité de l'entreprise, acte anormal de gestion |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01309536&r=cse |
| By: | Goraus-Tanska, Karolina (University of Warsaw); Lewandowski, Piotr (Institute for Structural Research (IBS)) |
| Abstract: | Minimum wages continue to be at the centre of the policy debates in both developed and emerging economies. Such policies can only be effective if (1) the existing regulatory system does not have gaps that allow for the payment of wages below the minimum wage, and (2) the existing minimum wage laws are not violated (too often). In this paper we analyse minimum wage violations in 10 Central and Eastern European countries that have joined the EU since 2004, and that have statutory national minimum wages. Utilising EU-SILC data, we use the methodology proposed by Bhorat et al. (2013) to analyse both the incidence of minimum wage violations, as well as the monetary depth of these violations. We find that on average in 2003-2012, the estimated incidence of violations ranged from 1.0% in Bulgaria, to 1.3% in the Czech Republic, around 3% in Romania and Slovenia, 4.7% in Poland and Hungary, 5.6% in Latvia, and 6.9% in Lithuania. The average pay shortfall ranged from 13.7% of the country-year specific minimum wage in Estonia, to 41.7% in Slovenia. In all countries, workers who were female, less-educated, in the service or agricultural sector, in a micro firm, or with a temporary contract were more likely than other categories of workers to earn less than the minimum wage they were entitled to. While higher minimum to average wage ratios were associated with higher levels of non-compliance, this effect was present within countries over time, but not between them. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, violation, compliance, Central Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | J08 J31 J38 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10098&r=cse |
| By: | Philipp Renner (Stanford University - The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace); Karl Schmedders (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the theoretical and numerical analysis of discrete time dynamic principal-agent problems with continuous choice sets. We first provide a new and simplified proof for the recursive reformulation of the sequential dynamic principal-agent relationship. Next we prove the existence of a unique solution for the principal's value function, which solves the dynamic programming problem in the recursive formulation, by showing that the Bellman operator is a contraction mapping. Therefore, the theorem also provides a convergence result for the value function iteration. To compute a solution for the problem we have to solve a collection of static principal-agent problems at each iteration. Under the assumption that the agent's expected utility is a rational function of his action, we can transform the bi-level optimization problem into a standard nonlinear program (NLP). We can then solve these nonlinear problems with a standard NLP solver. The final results of our solution method are numerical approximations of the policy and value functions for the dynamic principal-agent model. We illustrate our solution method by solving variations of two prominent social planning models from the economics literature. |
| Keywords: | Optimal unemployment tax, principal-agent model, repeated moral hazard |
| JEL: | C63 D80 D82 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1626&r=cse |
| By: | Quaas, Martin F.; Bröcker, Johannes |
| Abstract: | We develop an overlapping generations endogenous growth model with stocks of produced capital, human capital, a non-renewable resource, and irreversibly accumulated greenhouse gases in deterministic and stochastic versions. The model allows for analyzing different elasticities of substitution. We present a full analytical solution and characterization of the transition dynamics. We show that, as a rule of thumb, the social cost of carbon grow at a rate equal to the economy's growth rate divided by the elasticity of substitution. We analytically study sensitivity of the social cost of carbon with respect to key parameters: the intergenerational discount rate, the elasticity of substitution, and climate uncertainty. We show that the social cost of carbon explode at a finite level of log-normally distributed climate uncertainty. We illustrate results in a calibrated version of the model. |
| Keywords: | overlapping generations,substitutes vs. complements,stochastic resource dynamics,optimum growth,climate policy |
| JEL: | Q54 O44 Q32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauewp:201609&r=cse |
| By: | Soham Baksi; Amrita Ray Chaudhuri |
| Abstract: | We examine the impacts of trade liberalization and border tax adjustment (BTA) on the incentives of heterogeneous countries to cooperate when regulating emissions of a global pollutant. We consider an oligopoly model of trade between two countries, North and South, where production generates transboundary pollution and the pollution damage parameter is higher in the North. Each country imposes a pollution tax on its domestic firm, where the tax rate can be chosen either cooperatively or non-cooperatively. We analyze the sustainability of environmental cooperation between the countries within an infinitely repeated game framework using trigger strategies. While the North has a stronger incentive to cooperate than the South, we find that an increase in the degree of heterogeneity between the two countries in terms of their pollution damage parameter reduces the likelihood of cooperation between them. Trade liberalization increases both the global gains from cooperation as well as the likelihood of cooperation between the countries. Further, we consider the use of a border tax adjustment under non-cooperation, where the North imposes a tariff on imports of the polluting good from the South, and the tariff rate reflects the difference in pollution tax rates across the two countries. We find that imposing the BTA makes the North less likely to cooperate, while the South is more likely to cooperate provided the countries are sufficiently heterogeneous. |
| Keywords: | International environmental agreements, Transboundary pollution, International trade, Border tax adjustment |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 F18 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:win:winwop:2016-03&r=cse |
| By: | Fan Yang (New York University Shanghai); Ron Harstad (Economics Department, University of Missouri) |
| Abstract: | How low might be the resource costliness of making signals credible? Using a job market as an example, We build a signaling model to determine the extent to which a transfer from an applicant might replace a resource cost as an equilibrium method of achieving signal credibility. As long as a firm’s claim to be hiring for an open position is credible, and profitability of the hiring process per se is limited to an application fee, the firm has an incentive to use the properly calibrated fee to implement a separating equilibrium. Applicant risk aversion does not necessarily discourage a monopsonist potential employer from using an application fee, but a firm hiring in a competitive labor market with risk-averse applicants may prefer a pooling equilibrium, hiring all applicants at their average productivity. Partial extension to a model with third-party assistance (a headhunter or a job board) is possible. |
| Keywords: | costly, signaling, asymmetric information |
| JEL: | D82 J24 C72 J31 |
| Date: | 2016–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:1610&r=cse |
| By: | Hua Liao; Jia-Wei Cai; Dong-Wei Yang; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Medium-to-long term energy prediction plays a widely-acknowledged role in guiding national energy strategy and policy but could also lead to serious economic and social chaos when poorly executed. A consequent issue may be the effectiveness of these predictions, and sources that errors can be traced back to. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) concerning energy demand based on its long term world energy model (WEM) under specific assumptions towards uncertainties such as population, macro economy, energy price and technology etc. Unfortunately, some of its predictions succeeded while others failed. We in this paper attempts to decompose the leading source of these errors quantitatively. Results suggest that GDP acts as the leading source of demand forecasting errors while fuel price comes thereafter, which requires extra attention in forecasting. Gas, among all fuel types witness the most biased projections. Ignoring the catch-up effect of acquiring rapid economic growth in developing countries such as China will lead to huge mistake in predicting global energy demand. Finally, asymmetric cost of under- and over-estimation of GDP suggests a potentially less conservative stance in the future. |
| Keywords: | energy demand; Medium-to-long term prediction; forecast error; social development |
| JEL: | Q54 Q40 |
| Date: | 2016–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:biw:wpaper:92&r=cse |
| By: | Ke Wang; Xian Zhang; Xueying Yu; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology); Bin Wang |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the efficiency advantage of a market-based emission permit trading policy instrument over a command and control policy instrument in the case of China's thermal power industry. We estimate the unrealized gains achievable through emission permit trading with an optimization frontier analysis. These unrealized gains include potential recoveries of electricity generation through eliminating spatial and temporal regulatory rigidity on emission permit trading. The results of an ex post estimation during 2006 and 2010 indicate a potential gain of 8.48% increase in electricity generation if both the intra- and inter-period regulatory rigidities CO2 emission permits trading had been eliminated. In addition, if the permit trading systems for three air pollutions, CO2, SO2, and NOx, had been completely integrated, a positive net synergy effect of 1.43% increase in electricity generation could have been secured. The unrealized gains identified in this study provide supports for establishing a nationwide emission permit trading system in China. |
| Keywords: | Data envelopment analysis, CO2 emissions, Regulatory rigidity, Synergy effect, Tradable permits |
| JEL: | Q54 Q40 |
| Date: | 2016–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:biw:wpaper:95&r=cse |
| By: | Chen, Daniel L.; Halberstam, Yosh; Yu, Alan |
| Abstract: | The emphasis on “fit” as a hiring criterion has raised the spectrum of a new form of subtle discrimination (Yoshino 1998; Bertrand and Duflo 2016). Under complete markets, correlations between employee characteristics and outcomes persist only if there exists animus for the marginal employer (Becker 1957), but who is the marginal employer for mutable characteristics? Using data on 1,901 U.S. Supreme Court oral arguments between 1998 and 2012, we document that voice-based snap judgments based on lawyers’ identical introductory sentences, “Mr. Chief Justice, (and) may it please the Court?”, predict court outcomes. The connection between vocal characteristics and court outcomes is specific only to perceptions of masculinity and not other characteristics, even when judgment is based on less than three seconds of exposure to a lawyer’s speech sample. Consistent with employers irrationally favoring lawyers with masculine voices, perceived masculinity is negatively correlated with winning and the negative correlation is larger in more masculine-sounding industries. The first lawyer to speak is the main driver. Among these petitioners, males below median in masculinity are 7 percentage points more likely to win in the Supreme Court. Justices appointed by Democrats, but not Republicans, vote for lessmasculine men. Female lawyers are also coached to be more masculine and women’s perceived femininity predict court outcomes. Republicans, more than Democrats, vote for more feminine-sounding females. A de-biasing strategy is tested and shown to reduce evaluators’ tendency to perceive masculine voices as more likely to win. Perceived masculinity explains 3-10% additional variance compared to the current best prediction model of Supreme Court votes. |
| Keywords: | Identity, Phonology, Judicial Decision-Making |
| JEL: | J15 J78 K41 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:iastwp:30639&r=cse |
| By: | Gurgul, Henryk; Lach, Łukasz |
| Abstract: | This paper is one of the first studies dedicated to the extensive examination of the dynamics of key sectors in Poland in the period of transition. The research was based on the maximum entropy decomposition of the Leontief inverse applied to the highly-disaggregated input-output tables covering the period of 2000–2005. The results allow formulating the list of sectors, which, more or less, have preserved the status of the key sectors in Poland. In turn, some sectors (especially the financial-intermediation- and food-and-agriculture-related ones) have significantly derailed, while services-related sectors (including the transport, tourism, and trade services) have clearly gained in importance. These facts, together with rising importance of certain manufacturing sectors, may suggest that Poland has largely managed to avoid the most negative consequences of the process of de-industrialization, which has been taking place in CEE from the beginning of transition. |
| Keywords: | Poland, input-output matrices, transition, key sector identification |
| JEL: | C53 D57 O30 Q40 |
| Date: | 2015–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72739&r=cse |
| By: | Lokesh Verma; Jawaid Ahmad Itoo |
| Abstract: | Caste system may have origins in experiences derived from, what is known in analytical psychology as, “the personal and collective unconscious.” India is said to be home of social stratification which is found in the form of caste, based on the birth of the individual in a particular caste/family. In spite of strict religious prohibition of caste system, yet social stratification and caste like features has crept in some Muslim societies and Kashmiri society is no exception. Although, caste system is in Kashmir is not so rigid and complex but we can’t deny the fact the kashmiri society is not caste free society (Irshad, Ahrah and Zubar, 2013). The present study attempts to study the personality traits of college students of Kashmir division belonging to two dominant upper caste (Syeds and Khan) and five under- privileged lower caste (Hajam, Kumar, Gurjar,Lohar and Teeli,) will be taken into consideration. For this study a sample of 800 was drawn by using cluster sampling technique. Key words: Crept, dominant, under-privileged,cluster |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-06-05&r=cse |
| By: | Carmen UNGUREANU (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | An ambitious initiative of the European Commission, also presented the Europe 2020 Strategy, is that, by 2020, 75% of the population aged between 20 and 64 be employed. The responsibility for action in this regard must not belong to governments only, but also to companies, trade unions, NGOs, local authorities and to each person individually. An important role in creating jobs in Romania is played by the self-employed persons, individual enterprises and family enterprises. They offer unemployed people the opportunity to bring their contribution to the economy and society. In this paper, we have proposed an analysis of the self-employed persons, individual enterprises and family enterprises as ways to exercise the free enterprise and a person’s free access to an economic activity, in three areas: legal, taxation and accounting. |
| Keywords: | family business, accounting |
| JEL: | L20 M40 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eub:wpaper:2016-07&r=cse |
| By: | Alicja Olejnik (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz); Agata Zoltaszek (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz) |
| Abstract: | For years now, developed countries face an epidemic of high blood pressure, diabetes and high cholesterol, risk factors related to heart and circulatory disease, and a suite of psychological disorders ranging from depression, anxiety, to compulsive behaviours. These health risks have traditionally been associated with affluence however by 2008 there is no clear link between national income and these diseases. E.g. according to Danaei, there was no relationship between national income and blood pressure in men, and in women blood pressure was even higher in poorer countries. Therefore, this paper provides deepen analysis of this correlation applying spatial econometrics tools. The spatial aspect of the prevalence of western diseases does not seem to be obvious and, to our knowledge, is not widely explored in the literature. In particular, the paper investigates the spatial processes of selected diseases of affluence in regions of the European Union. The research covers 261 NUTS 2 regions for the period 2003-2010. This study provides the spatial analysis of Circulatory and Mental diseases. In our opinion, the presented spatial econometric approach may constitutes an important contribution to the field of epidemiology. |
| Keywords: | diseases of affluence, health, socioeconomic development, spatial analysis. |
| JEL: | I14 I15 O18 O57 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ann:wpaper:6/2016&r=cse |
| By: | Elke Holst; Julia Bringmann |
| Abstract: | Die Debatte um Arbeitszeiten und deren Regulierung wird in der deutschen Öffentlichkeiterneut geführt. Empirische Grundlage sind dabei häufig Studien auf Basis des Mikrozensusoder des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP), die teilweise erhebliche Unterschiede in ihrenErgebnissen aufweisen (Rengers 2015, Holst/Wieber 2014). In dem vorliegenden Beitragwird den Ursachen für diese Unterschiede nachgegangen. Eine Anpassung der SOEP-Datenan die Struktur der Beschäftigtengruppen des Mikrozensus und den Definitionen und Abgrenzungenvon Rengers (2015) führt nur teilweise zu einer Annäherung der Ergebnisse. ErstBerechnungen zu „potenziellen“ Auswirkungen von Unterschieden in den Erhebungsinstrumentengeben entscheidende Hinweise. So kommen wir zu der Einschätzung, dass mit demMikrozensus der Anteil der Überbeschäftigten und damit einhergehend der Anteil der Erwerbstätigenmit Arbeitszeitdiskrepanzen insgesamt eher unterschätzt wird. Im SOEP werdendie Arbeitszeitwünsche bezogen auf Nebenerwerbstätigkeit nicht spezifisch erfasst. Inwelchem Maße dies die Arbeitszeitdiskrepanzen beeinflusst, bleibt noch offen. Die Ergebnisseauf Basis des SOEP dürften eher eine Obergrenze darstellen. In beiden Surveys ist beiden Fragen zur gewünschten Arbeitszeit zudem noch zu klären, (1) inwieweit die Aufforderungzur Verdienstanpassung überlesen oder sogar missverstanden wird, (2) inwieweit auchzukünftige Zeiträume bei der Beantwortung mitgedacht und (3) inwiefern vereinbarte odertatsächliche Arbeitszeit als Ankerpunkte gewählt werden. |
| Keywords: | SOEP, Mikrozensus, Arbeitszeiten, Arbeitszeitwünsche, Unterbeschäftigung, Überbeschäftigung, Arbeitszeitdivergenzen, Erhebungsinstrumente, Methoden |
| JEL: | C83 J00 J01 J08 J21 J22 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1597&r=cse |
| By: | Anderson, D. Mark (Montana State University); Sandholt, Sina (Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | In an effort to increase booster seat use among children, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is encouraging state legislators to promote stricter booster seat laws, yet there is a paucity of information on booster seat efficacy relative to other forms of restraint. Using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System for the period 2008-2014 and the sample selection correction proposed by Levitt and Porter (2001), the current study examines the effectiveness of booster seats relative to child safety seats and adult seat belts. For children 6 to 8 years of age, we find that booster seats are more than twice as effective as child safety seats and over 30 percent more effective than standard seat belts at decreasing the likelihood of fatality in a motor vehicle accident. For children 2 to 5 years of age, all three forms of restraint appear equally effective. |
| Keywords: | booster seats, child safety seats, traffic fatalities |
| JEL: | I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10071&r=cse |
| By: | Shuping Shi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the existence of speculative bubbles in the US national and in 23 regional housing markets over three decades (1978-2012). A new method for detecting exuberance in housing markets is proposed. By taking changes in the macroeconomic conditions (such as interest rate, per-capita income, employment, and population growth) into consideration, the new method provides a better control for housing market fundamentals and thereby it is expected to significantly reduce the chance of false positive identification. Compared with the method of Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015a,b), the new approach finds a dramatic reduction in the number of speculative housing markets and shorter bubble episodes in the US. It locates only one bubble episode in the early-to-mid 2000s over the whole sample period in the national housing market. At the regional level, it identifies three periods of speculation: late 1980s, early-to-mid 2000s, and the post-crisis period in 2011-2012. The early-to-mid 2000s bubble episode is the most severe one involving nine major metropolitan statistical areas. |
| Keywords: | Speculative bubbles, Housing market, Fundamentals, Macroeconomic conditions, Regional, Explosive |
| JEL: | C12 C51 R31 E31 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-46&r=cse |
| By: | Gibson, John (University of Waikato); McKenzie, David (World Bank); Rohorua, Halahingano (University of Waikato); Stillman, Steven (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano) |
| Abstract: | We study how migration from a poor to a rich country affects key economic beliefs, preference parameters, and transnational household decision-making efficiency. Our setting is the migration of Tongans to New Zealand through a migration lottery program. In a ten-year follow-up survey of individuals applying for this program we elicit risk and time preferences and pro-market beliefs. We also link migrants and potential migrants to a partner household consisting of family members who would stay behind if they moved. We play lab-in-the-field games designed to measure the degree of intra-family trust and the efficiency of intra-family decision-making. Migration provides a large and permanent positive shock to income, a large change in economic institutions, and a reduction in interactions with partner household members. Despite these changes, we find no significant impacts of migration on risk and time preferences, pro-market beliefs, or in the decision-making efficiency of transnational households. This stability in the face of such a large and life-changing event lends credence to economic models of migration that treat these determinants of decision-making as time-invariant, and contrasts with recent evidence on preference changes after negative shocks. |
| Keywords: | migration, economic beliefs, preferences, household efficiency, transnational household |
| JEL: | O12 F22 D13 D81 P1 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10110&r=cse |
| By: | John Gibson (University of Waikato); David McKenzie (World Bank); Halahingano Rohorua (University of Waikato); Steven Stillman (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano) |
| Abstract: | We study how migration from a poor to a rich country affects key economic beliefs, preference parameters, and transnational household decision-making efficiency. Our setting is the migration of Tongans to New Zealand through a migration lottery program. In a ten-year follow-up survey of individuals applying for this program we elicit risk and time preferences and pro-market beliefs. We also link migrants and potential migrants to a partner household consisting of family members who would stay behind if they moved. We play lab-in-the-field games designed to measure the degree of intra-family trust and the efficiency of intra-family decision-making. Migration provides a large and permanent positive shock to income, a large change in economic institutions, and a reduction in interactions with partner household members. Despite these changes, we find no significant impacts of migration on risk and time preferences, pro-market beliefs, or in the decision-making efficiency of transnational households. This stability in the face of such a large and life-changing event lends credence to economic models of migration that treat these determinants of decision-making as time-invariant, and contrasts with recent evidence on preference changes after negative shocks. |
| Keywords: | Migration, economic beliefs, preferences, household efficiency, transnational household |
| JEL: | O12 F22 D13 D81 P1 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1614&r=cse |
| By: | Escribano, Alvaro; Sucarrat, Genaro |
| Abstract: | Electricity prices are characterised by strong autoregressive persistence, periodicity (e.g. intraday, day-of-the week and month-of-the-year effects), large spikes or jumps, GARCH and -- as evidenced by recent findings -- periodic volatility. We propose a multivariate model of volatility that decomposes volatility multiplicatively into a non-stationary (e.g. periodic) part and a stationary part with log-GARCH dynamics. Since the model belongs to the log-GARCH class, the model is robust to spikes or jumps, allows for a rich variety of volatility dynamics without restrictive positivity constraints, can be estimated equation-by-equation by means of standard methods even in the presence of feedback, and allows for Dynamic Conditional Correlations (DCCs) that can -- optionally -- be estimated subsequent to the volatilities. We use the model to study the hourly day-ahead system prices at Nord Pool, and find extensive evidence of periodic volatility and volatility feedback. We also find that volatility is characterised by (positive) leverage in half of the hours, and that a DCC model provides a better fit of the conditional correlations than a Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) model. |
| Keywords: | Electricity prices, financial return, volatility, ARCH, exponential GARCH, log-GARCH, Multivariate GARCH, Dynamic Conditional Correlations, inverse leverage, Nord Pool |
| JEL: | C22 C32 C51 C58 |
| Date: | 2016–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72736&r=cse |
| By: | Gabriel Bruneau; Ian Christensen; Césaire Meh |
| Abstract: | We perform an analysis to determine how well the introduction of a countercyclical loanto- value (LTV) ratio can reduce household indebtedness and housing price fluctuations compared with a monetary policy rule augmented with house price inflation. To this end, we construct a New Keynesian model in which a fraction of households borrow against the value of their houses and we introduce news shocks on housing demand. We estimate the model with Canadian data using Bayesian methods. We find that the introduction of news shocks can generate a housing market boom-bust cycle, the bust following unrealized expectations on housing demand. Our study also suggests that a countercyclical LTV ratio is a useful policy to reduce the spillover from the housing market to consumption, and to lean against news-driven boom-bust cycles in housing price and credit generated by expectations of future macroeconomic developments. |
| Keywords: | Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy framework, Transmission of monetary policy |
| JEL: | E31 E42 H23 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-31&r=cse |
| By: | Rajnikumari |
| Abstract: | Teachers’ judgements about children with disabilities could have a significant influence on children’s emotional, social and intellectual development. To make inclusion a successful practice, the inculcation of positive attitudes among regular teachers toward students with disabilities is a chief aspect. In the present study, researcher attempted to study the prevalence of attitude of regular teachers towards inclusive education with regards to some demographic variables namely gender, additional in-service training, presence of CWSN in classrooms, designation and age of teachers. A survey was conducted on 739 teachers designated as Primary Teachers (PRTs), Trained Graduate Teachers (TGTs) and Post Graduate Teachers (PGTs) in government school of Union Territory of Delhi, India, by using SACIE-R, developed by Forlin, C., Earle, C., Loreman, T. & Sharma, U. Forlin, C. (2011). In the light of objectives of the study, data were statistically analyzed for Mean, Standard Deviation and critical ratio. Results of the study implicated that for the thriving inclusion of CWSN in regular schools, we need to make teachers’ attitude more positive in India. Key words: Inclusive Education, Attitude and CWSN |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-06-02&r=cse |
| By: | Bendewald, Ellen; Maryns, Nicholas; Robertson, Raymond (Texas A&M University) |
| Abstract: | Using matched administrative data, this paper estimates the program effects of Minnesota's WIA Title I‐B Adult program to make two contributions to the literature. First, this paper applies a wide range of non‐experimental approaches and generates similar estimates of program effects that are consistently larger than most other evaluations. Second, comparing workers job seeking in 2007‐2008 with those job seeking in 2009‐2010 suggests that the workers job seeking in a growing job market experience more persistent program effects. |
| Keywords: | pseudo‐experimental, job training, WIA‐Adult |
| JEL: | J28 J38 J68 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10107&r=cse |
| By: | Breitmoser, Yves |
| Abstract: | Individual choice exhibits "presentation effects" such as default, ordering and round-number effects. Using existing models, presentation effects bias utility estimates, which suggests instability of preferences and obscures behavioral patterns. This paper derives a generalized model of stochastic choice by weakening logit's axiomatic foundation. Weakening the axioms implies that focality of options is choice-relevant, alongside utility, which entails presentation effects. The model is tested on four well-known studies of dictator games exhibiting typical round-number patterns. The generalized logit model captures the choice patterns reliably, substantially better than existing models: it robustly predicts and controls for the round-number effects, thus provides "clean" utility estimates that are stable and predictive across experiments. |
| Keywords: | stochastic choice, systematic mistakes, axiomatic foundation, utility estimation, dictator game |
| JEL: | C10 C90 D03 |
| Date: | 2016–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72779&r=cse |
| By: | Guido Matias Cortes (University of Manchester, UK; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy); Andrea Salvatori (University of Essex, UK) |
| Abstract: | This paper offers the first study of job polarization in Great Britain using workplace level data. We document widespread and increasing occupational specialization within establishments, along with substantial heterogeneity in specialization within industries. Changes in the specialization profiles of workplaces account for most of the changes in the aggregate occupational shares between 1998 and 2011. The sharp rise in the fraction of workplaces specializing in non-routine tasks is associated with a large increase in the concentration of non-routine workers in workplaces that specialize in such occupations. We find no evidence of a decline in routine employment among establishments that report the adoption of new technologies, as would be expected from the standard routine-biased technological change hypothesis. Instead, we uncover new evidence that suggests that the increase in non-routine cognitive workplaces is linked to the growth in outsourcing of cognitive tasks. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:16-21&r=cse |
| By: | Pao-Lin Tien; Tara M. Sinclair; Edward N. Gamber |
| Abstract: | There is a large literature evaluating the forecasts of the Federal Reserve by testing their rationality and measuring the size of their forecast errors. There is also a substantial literature and debate on the impact of the Fed’s monetary policy on the economy. We know little, however about the impact of the Fed’s forecast errors on economic outcomes. This paper constructs a measure of a forecast error shock for the Federal Reserve based on the assumption that the Fed follows a forward-looking Taylor rule. Given the effort the Fed puts towards producing forecasts that do not have an endogenous error component, we treat the Fed’s forecast errors as a shock, analogous to a monetary policy shock. Our shock, however, is different in that it is completely unintended by the monetary authority rather than simply unanticipated by the public. We follow Romer and Romer (2004) and investigate the effect of the forecast error shock on output and price movements. Our results suggest that although the absolute magnitude of the forecast error shock is large, the impact of the shock on the macroeconomy is quite small. This finding is robust across a range of different specifications. The maximum impact suggests a decline of less than 0.3 percent of real GDP and less than 0.4 percent of GDP deflator in response to a 100 basis point contractionary forecast error shock. |
| Keywords: | Federal Reserve, Taylor rule, forecast evaluation, monetary policy shocks |
| JEL: | E32 E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-47&r=cse |
| By: | Sucarrat, Genaro; Escribano, Álvaro |
| Abstract: | Electricity prices are characterised by strong autoregressive persistence, periodicity (e.g. intraday, day-of-the week and month-of-the-year effects), large spikes or jumps, GARCH and -as evidenced by recent findings- periodic volatility. We propose a multivariate model of volatility that decomposes volatility multiplicatively into a non-stationary (e.g. periodic) part and a stationary part with log-GARCH dynamics. Since the model belongs to the log-GARCH class, the model is robust to spikes or jumps, allows for a rich variety of volatility dynamics without restrictive positivity constraints, can be estimated equation-by-equation by means of standard methods even in the presence of feedback, and allows for Dynamic Conditional Correlations (DCCs) that can –optionally- be estimated subsequent to the volatilities. We use the model to study the hourly day-ahead system prices at Nord Pool, and find extensive evidence of periodic volatility and volatility feedback. We also find that volatility is characterised by (positive) leverage in half of the hours, and that a DCC model provides a better fit of the conditional correlations than a Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) model. |
| Keywords: | Nord Pool; inverse leverage; Dynamic Conditional Correlations; Multivariate GARCH; log-GARCH; exponential GARCH; ARCH; volatility; financial return; Electricity prices |
| JEL: | C58 C51 C32 C22 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:23436&r=cse |
| By: | Parsons, Christopher (University of Western Australia); Vézina, Pierre-Louis (King's College London) |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence for the causal pro-trade effect of migrants and in doing so establish an important link between migrant networks and long-run economic development. To this end, we exploit a unique event in human history, i.e. the exodus of the Vietnamese Boat People to the US. This episode represents an ideal natural experiment as the large immigration shock, the first wave of which comprised refugees exogenously allocated across the US, occurred over a twenty-year period during which time the US imposed a complete trade embargo on Vietnam. Following the lifting of trade restrictions in 1994, US exports to Vietnam grew most in US States with larger Vietnamese populations, themselves the result of larger refugee inflows 20 years earlier. |
| Keywords: | migrant networks, US exports, natural experiment |
| JEL: | F14 F22 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10112&r=cse |
| By: | Lei Gu; Yi-Xin Zhang; Jian-Zhou Wang; Gina Chen; Hugh Battye |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the history and present status of different categories of biogas production in China, most of which are classified into rural household production, agriculture-based engineering production, and industry-based engineering production. To evaluate the future biogas production of China, five models including the Hubbert model, the Weibull model, the generalized Weng model, the H–C–Z model, and the Grey model are applied to analyze and forecast the biogas production of each province and the entire country. It is proved that those models which originated from oil research can also be applied to other energy sources. The simulation results reveal that China’s total biogas production is unlikely to keep on a fast-growing trend in the next few years, mainly due to a recent decrease in rural household production, and this greatly differs from the previous goal set by the official department. In addition, China’s biogas production will present a more uneven pattern among regions in the future. This paper will give preliminary explanation for the regional difference of the three biogas sectors and propose some recommendations for instituting corresponding policies and strategies to promote the development of the biogas industry in China. |
| Keywords: | biogas production; China; temporal-spatial-forecast; policy |
| JEL: | N0 J50 |
| Date: | 2016–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:67274&r=cse |
| By: | Giorgadze, Tamar; Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | The paper examines that imperfections in financial markets are themselves a source of macroeconomic fluctuations. Small, temporary shocks to technology or income distribution can generate large fluctuations in output and asset prices and spill over to other sectors. The work is based on the original model by Kiyotaki and Moore (1997). This paper will simulate a one-unit technology shock and study the propagation through the credit channel, evaluating its quantitative impact. While in the Kiyotaki-Moore model there is a linear production function used, we will try to do the derivation using the non-linear function and analyze how it changes the previously obtained result. |
| Keywords: | Credit cycles,aggregate fluctuations |
| JEL: | E32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:144572&r=cse |
| By: | Renisha Chainani |
| Abstract: | Gold is a finite source and when global economic conditions make gold more attractive, gold demand increases, making the price of gold rise. It is used as a standard of value for currencies all over the world. Gold Price is impacted by production costs, money supply, comfort or discomfort with financial or geopolitical stability, the demand generated by jewelry and industry, value of various currencies and actions taken by central banks. Gold can also be used as hedge against inflation and diversifying tool in hard times. Key words: Gold, Safe-Heaven, Investment, Jewelry, Bullion, Interest Rate, Monetary Easing, Monetary Tightening, Crisis, Geopolitical Tensions, ETF, FED, Correlation |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-06-13&r=cse |
| By: | Glatt, Jordan; Wunnava, Phanindra V. (Middlebury College) |
| Abstract: | The scarring effect is defined as an increase in the probability of future unemployment spells and the reduction of subsequent wages as the result of joblessness early in one's working years. Many youths get into a rut at the beginning of their professional careers when they become unemployed, hindering future individual prospects and producing negative consequences for the economy as a whole. Because there is considerable evidence in the United States that early job displacement is followed by a higher risk of subsequent unemployment and lower trajectory for future earnings after re-entry, it is crucial to gain a better understanding of the economic factors that influence the youth unemployment rate in order to reduce the consequences on youths' future outlooks (Arulampalam, Gregg, and Gregory, 2001). This study not only demonstrates that the scarring effect is real but also allows for policy recommendations to be obtained from this analysis. |
| Keywords: | scarring, youth unemployment, unemployment spells, job displacement, earnings, re-entry, Great Recession |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J64 I21 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10069&r=cse |
| By: | McDaniels, Devin; Karttunen, Marianna |
| Abstract: | Even if traders adapt to technical regulations and standards in an export market, they still must prove compliance by undergoing conformity assessment procedures (CAPs), such as testing, inspection, or certification. Duplication, delays or discrimination in CAPs can significantly increase trade costs, and this risk is reflected in the growing importance of CAPs in WTO discussions and bilateral and regional free trade agreements. This paper conducts an empirical study of the trade issues that WTO Members encounter with CAPs as described in specific trade concerns (STCs) raised in the WTO Committee on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) during 2010-2014. We observe that CAPs raise proportionally more concern among WTO Members than technical regulations do, and that testing and certification are the procedures that most frequently give rise to trade problems. Within the framework of the TBT Agreement, we find that questions around transparency and whether CAPs create unnecessary barriers to trade are the two most prominent issues highlighted by Members. |
| Keywords: | international trade,certification,testing,conformity assessment procedures,international standards,international cooperation,coherence,non-tariff barriers,technical barriers to trade,regulation |
| JEL: | F13 F53 F55 K33 L15 L51 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201609&r=cse |
| By: | Veena Jha; Aneesh Jose |
| Abstract: | The word ‘Children’ seems to be equal to ‘joyful’. We bear in mind so many smiling faces of young beautiful kids. But the term street children give an opposite impression. A street child is a term for children experiencing homelessness who live on the streets of a city, town or village.Other words a street child is someone for whom the street has become his or her habitual abode and or source of livelihood, and who is inadequately protected, supervised, or directed by responsible adults. Homeless youth are often called street kids and street youth. Some street children, notably in more developed nations are part of a subcategory called thrown away children who are children that have been forced to leave home. Thrown away children are more likely to come from single-parent homes. Street children are often subject to abuse, neglect, exploitation, or in extreme cases, murder by clean-up squads that have been hired by local businesses or police. In western societies, such children are sometimes treated as homeless children rather than criminals or beggars. It is estimated that more than 400000 street children in India exist. Mainly because of family conflict, they come to live on the streets and take on the full responsibilities of caring for themselves, including working to provide for the protecting themselves. Boys and girls of all ages are found living and working in public spaces, and are visible in the great majority of the world’s urban centres. Though street children do sometimes band together for greater security, they are often exploited by employers and the police. Key words: Children, Education, Reforms |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-06-03&r=cse |
| By: | Tunc, Cengiz; Kılınç, Mustafa |
| Abstract: | Pass through from the exchange rate developments to consumer prices could be an important dimension of inflationary dynamics in small open economies. In such economies, the proper identification of exchange rate pass through (ERPT) is crucial for monetary policy analysis. In this paper, we study ERPT in Turkey for the period of 2006m1-2015m6, which starts with the launch of explicit inflation-targeting regime. We first show that commonly used recursive VAR model generates unrealistic dynamics like effects of domestic variables on external variables in small open economies and as result ERPT estimate is biased. This bias comes from the unrealistic decline in energy prices in response to depreciation of currency for the given period in Turkey. We then use a structural VAR model with block exogeneity assumption. This model generates more realistic dynamics and suggests that ERPT is around 18 percent in Turkey. Overall, the analysis demonstrates the importance of using realistic model setup and checking the relationships across variables when estimating ERPT in small open economies. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Exchange Rates, Pass-through, Turkey |
| JEL: | E31 E52 F31 |
| Date: | 2016–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72770&r=cse |
| By: | Haucap, Justus |
| Abstract: | Viele Bürgerinnen und Bürger in Deutschland heute überaus skeptisch gegenüber neuen Technologien und Innovationen, ganz gleich ob es um Gentechnik, Biotechnologie, Fracking oder die Digitalisierung geht. Hinzu kommt eine große Skepsis gegenüber zahlreichen Infrastrukturvorhaben sowie ganz allgemein eine zunehmend skeptische Haltung zur Marktwirtschaft und zum Wirtschaftswachstum. Großen Teilen der Bevölkerung geht es heute so gut, dass Verteilungsthemen die Debatte dominieren. Veränderungen des Status Quo werden als Gefährdungen eingestuft. Eine konservative Politik, die möglichst den Status Quo bewahren und Änderungen verhindern will (und damit nicht besonders innovationsfreundlich ist), wird tendenziell für Politiker attraktiv, weil dies eben von immer mehr Wählerinnen und Wählern gewünscht wird. Hinzu kommt die bekannte Problematik, dass bei neuen Geschäftsmodellen und innovativen Produkten und Produktionstechnologien die Gewinner oftmals verstreut und auch ex ante nicht bekannt sind, die Verlierer jedoch oft konzentriert und leicht identifizierbar sind. Das politische Gleichgewicht ist daher regelmäßig eines, bei dem die etablierten Kräfte sich durchsetzen und Neuerungen verhindern. Die Kombination aus natürlichen und institutionellen Standortnachteilen kann jedoch zu einer toxischen Mischung für den Standort Deutschland werden. Vor diesem Hintergrund leitet der vorliegende Beitrag ab, was wirtschaftspolitisch zu tun ist, um die Innovationskraft Deutschlands zu stärken und schlägt unter anderem die Einsetzung einer neuen Deregulierungskommission vor, welche regulatorischen die vielfältigen und in ganz unterschiedlichen Rechtsgebieten verankerten Blockaden für die Digitalisierung identifiziert. |
| Keywords: | Digitalisierung,Innovation,Standort Deutschland,Deregulierung |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diceop:87&r=cse |
| By: | Huy N. Chau; Miklos Rasonyi |
| Abstract: | We consider the problem of utility maximization for investors with power utility functions. Building on the earlier work Larsen et al. (2014), we prove that the value of the problem is a Frechet-differentiable function of the drift of the price process, provided that this drift lies in a suitable Banach space. We then study optimal investment problems with non-Markovian driving processes. In such models there is no hope to get a formula for the achievable maximal utility. Applying results of the first part of the paper we provide first order expansions for certain problems involving a fractional Brownian motion either in the drift or in the volatility. We also point out how asymptotic results can be derived for models with strong mean reversion. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1608.00768&r=cse |
| By: | Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez (Banco de la República de Colombia); Ali M. Kutan; Jair N. Ojeda-Joya (Banco de la República de Colombia); María Camila Ortiz |
| Abstract: | This paper tests the importance of the financial structure of banks in the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission in Colombia, using an unbalanced panel of 51 banks for the period of 1996:4-2014:8. We find that an increase in the interbank rate (proxy of the intervention rate) has a response of a drop in the growth of the total loan portfolio of banks. When we breakdown by type of policy, the bank lending channel works better in times of monetary contraction, exhibiting significant reactions from banks with low levels of solvency rather than those with high solvency. In contrast, when the policy is expansionary, the high solvency banks are the only segment exhibiting the presence of the bank lending channel. We discuss the policy implications of findings. Classification JEL: E5, E52, E59, G21 |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy Transmission, Bank Lending Channel, Bank Financial Structure, Solvency, Heterogeneous Effects, Colombia |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:953&r=cse |
| By: | Ciprian ALEXANDRU (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest); Nicoleta CARAGEA (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | The crisis has increased income inequality of the world populations, delaying economic recovery and, by default, the jobs creation at world level. Solving social problems, particularly those related to employment, innovation, education, social inclusion, seen from the perspective of the European Union, results in the five overarching objectives laid down in the Europe 2020 strategy. Member States have adopted their own national targets for each of these areas. To achieve those objectives, substantial efforts will be needed to be made in the coming years within all EU Member States, in a context of severe budgetary constraints caused by the recent economic and social developments. This paper provides an overview of the main indicators that characterise poverty and inequality of Romanian population with some regards at international context. |
| Keywords: | inequality, poverty, risk of poverty, income |
| JEL: | D60 I30 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eub:wpaper:2016-02&r=cse |
| By: | Chiu, Jonathan; Wong, Tsz-Nga |
| Abstract: | Recent years have witnessed the advances of e-money systems such as Bitcoin, PayPal and various forms of stored-value cards. This paper adopts a mechanism design approach to identify some essential features of different payment systems that implement the optimal resource allocation. We find that, compared to cash, e-money technologies allowing limited participation, limited transferability and non-zero-sum transfers can help mitigate fundamental frictions and enhance social welfare, if they satisfy conditions in terms of parameters such as trade frequency and bargaining powers. An optimally designed e-money system exhibits realistic arrangements including non-linear pricing, cross-subsidization and positive interchange fees even when the technologies incur no costs. Regulations such as a cap on interchange fees (à la the Dodd-Frank Act) can distort the optimal mechanism and reduce welfare. |
| Keywords: | Money, Electronic money, Mechanism design, Search and matching, Efficiency, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:5205&r=cse |
| By: | Mauricio Velasquez |
| Abstract: | I show how compositional analysis developed in Geology is applied to the same data that are used to construct the Gini coefficient as a useful alternative to the Gini index to test specific hypothesis about the simultaneous interaction of classes (groups) in a multivariate regression environment. In this paper I propose using compositional analysis to study landownership dynamics as a productive alternative to the Land Gini. Specifically, I show that because identical Gini calculations result from drastically different land distributions it is wrong to narrow its interpretation to theories relating only the very rich and the very poor while ignoring the middle class. To illustrate this, I use cadastral longitudinal data from Colombia (capturing effects before and after local democratization) to compare results between identical multilevel longitudinal models in which the key independent variables are either balances calculated via compositions, or the land Gini coefficient. I show that even when the Gini is significantly correlated with developmental outcomes such as access to clean water and electricity, the most likely story is about a relatively stronger middle vs large landowning class. |
| JEL: | O C A |
| Date: | 2016–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jmp:jm2016:pve364&r=cse |
| By: | James Staveley-O'Carroll (Economics Division, Babson College); Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll (Department of Economics, College of the Holy Cross) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of foreign debt on the trade-off between the three open economy objectives of a central bank - international risk sharing, the need to facilitate expenditure-switching, and the incentive to tilt international prices to lower the labor effort of domestic households - in a two-country DSGE model with incomplete asset markets and deviations from the purchasing power parity. We fi?nd that at low debt levels, a Taylor rule outperforms simple targeting rules. However, the central bank can improve welfare by up to 0.25 percent of consumption via an exchange rate peg when debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 100 percent. |
| Keywords: | international risk sharing, foreign debt, exchange rate policy |
| JEL: | E52 F32 F41 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hcx:wpaper:1604&r=cse |
| By: | Manudeep, Bhuller (Department of Economics, University of Chicago; Research Department, Statistics Norway); Dahl, Gordon B. (Department of Economics, UC San Diego); Løken, Katrine V. (Department of Economics, University of Bergen); Mogstad, Magne (Department of Economics, University of Chicago; Research Department, Statistics Norway; NBER) |
| Abstract: | Understanding whether, and in what situations, time spent in prison is criminogenic or preventive has proven challenging due to data availability and correlated unobservables. This paper overcomes these challenges in the context of Norway’s criminal justice system, offering new insights into how incarceration affects subsequent crime and employment. We construct a panel dataset containing the criminal behavior and labor market outcomes of the entire population, and exploit the random assignment of criminal cases to judges who differ systematically in their stringency in sentencing defendants to prison. Using judge stringency as an instrumental variable, we find that imprisonment discourages further criminal behavior, and that the reduction extends beyond incapacitation. Incarceration decreases the probability an individual will reoffend within 5 years by 27 percentage points, and reduces the number of offenses over this same period by 10 criminal charges. In comparison, OLS shows positive associations between incarceration and subsequent criminal behavior. This sharp contrast suggests the high rates of recidivism among ex-convicts is due to selection, and not a consequence of the experience of being in prison. Exploring factors that may explain the preventive effect of incarceration, we find the decline in crime is driven by individuals who were not working prior to incarceration. Among these individuals, imprisonment increases participation in programs directed at improving employability and reducing recidivism, and ultimately, raises employment and earnings while discouraging further criminal behavior. Contrary to the widely embraced ‘nothing works’ doctrine, these findings demonstrate that time spent in prison with a focus on rehabilitation can indeed be preventive. |
| Keywords: | crime; employment; incarceration; recidivism |
| JEL: | J24 K42 |
| Date: | 2016–07–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bergec:2016_007&r=cse |
| By: | Knaut, Andreas (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)); Paulus, Simon (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | System security in electricity markets relies crucially on the interaction between demand and supply over time. However, research on electricity markets has been mainly focusing on the supply side arguing that demand is rather inelastic. Assuming perfectly inelastic demand might lead to delusive statements regarding the price formation in electricity markets. In this article we quantify the short-run price elasticity of electricity demand in the German day-ahead market and show that demand is adjusting to price movements in the short-run. We are able to solve the simultaneity problem of demand and supply for the German market by incorporating variable renewable electricity generation for the estimation of electricity prices in our econometric approach. We find a daily pattern for demand elasticity on the German day-ahead market where price-induced demand response occurs in early morning and late afternoon hours. Consequently, price elasticity is lowest at night times and during the day. Our measured price elasticity peaks at a value of approximately -0.006 implying that a one percent increase in price reduces demand by 0.006 percent |
| Keywords: | electricity markets; hourly price elasticity of demand; empirical demand analysis |
| JEL: | C26 L94 Q21 Q41 |
| Date: | 2016–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2016_007&r=cse |
| By: | Valentin Jouvanceau (Univ Lyon, CNRS, GATE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the portfolio rebalancing channel of Quantitative Easing (QE hereafter) interventions. First, we identify the effects of a QE shock using a Bayesian VAR on US data using a sign and zero restrictions identification scheme. We find that QE shocks have substantial effects on corporate spreads with different ratings, supportive of a portfolio rebalancing channel. Second, we build a DSGE model with a securitzation mechanism. We confront the resulting impulse response functions to those uncovered by our VAR analysis, and find a fairly good match. Finally, we show that the portfolio rebalancing channel crucially affects the transmission of QE shocks to real economy. |
| Keywords: | E44, E52, G2 |
| JEL: | H71 H72 R50 R51 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:1625&r=cse |
| By: | Stefano Carattini; Alessandro Tavoni |
| Abstract: | The market for voluntary carbon offsets has grown steadily in the last decade, yet it remains a very small niche. While 10% of greenhouse gas emissions generated by transportation are related to civil aviation, the use of offsets in this industry remains marginal for both leisure and business traveling. This paper exploits a unique dataset examining the decision to purchase carbon offsets at two academic conferences in environmental and ecological economics. We find that having the conference expenses covered by one’s institution increases the likelihood of offsetting, but practical and ethical reservations as well as personal characteristics and preferences also play an important role. We focus on the effect of objecting to the use of offsets and discuss the implications for practitioners and policy-makers. Based on our findings, we suggest that ecological and environmental economists should be more involved in the design and use of carbon offsets. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp247&r=cse |
| By: | Ekaterina V. Krekhovets (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Liudmila A. Leonova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Student friendship networks can be considered as social capital, which is known to be a very useful resource during university and after it. Several empirical studies have examined static models of student behaviour in social networks. In this study we analyse the dynamic changes of student social connections. We use original longitude data of student social ties from one Russian university. Data was collected within the framework of a research project of the International Research Laboratory for Institutional Analysis of Economic Reforms. To investigate factors influencing the evolution of social ties during university probit regressions were tested. We found that students with similar characteristics such as gender and academic achievement are more likely to become friends and continue to be friends. Both studying in the same group and living in a dormitory increase the likelihood of being friends. We also found a transitivity effect. We observe a positive effect of having common friend on friendship ties. We also notice a positive link between reciprocity and friendship stability. |
| Keywords: | social networks, friendship, higher education |
| JEL: | D85 I21 I23 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:33edu2016&r=cse |
| By: | Johannes Buckenmaier; Eugen Dimant (Philosophy, Politics and Economics, University of Pennsylvania); Luigi Mittone |
| Abstract: | We experimentally study the effectiveness of a principal witness regulation on tax compliance when tax evasion is nested within a corruption framework. Subjects repeatedly declare taxes in institutional environments with and without a principal witness regulation. Our experimental design allows us not only to compare tax compliance under both regimes, but also to investigate whether a transition from one regime to the other can increase compliance or break up established collusive patterns. The results suggest that tax compliance is higher in the presence of a principal witness regulation when the regime is fixed. However, the transition towards a regime with a principal witness regulation has the opposite effect, i.e. introducing it in later rounds causes a drop in compliance. We provide evidence that the effectiveness of new political measures cannot reliably be judged in isolation, but must be considered in view of the actual institutional history, that is the particular institutional framework in place before the measure is introduced. |
| Keywords: | Corruption, Institutions, Principal Witness Regulation, Tax Compliance, Tax Evasion |
| JEL: | D03 D73 D81 H26 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ppc:wpaper:0007&r=cse |
| By: | Niamh Moloney |
| Abstract: | The financial services industry is of central importance to the UK economy. It represents some 7% of GDP. It also generates major exports for the UK - in the region of one-third of UK financial services are exported to the EU. News reports in the immediate aftermath of the referendum result included the sharp drop in banking stocks; the overtures being made to attract UK financial business away from the City to other EU centres; and plans by leading financial institutions to move some operations away from the City. Vivid illustrations all of the importance of the Brexit vote for the City and the UK financial services industry. The financial services sector is one of the most heavily regulated sectors of the modern economy, reflecting the need to protect the public interest in a strong and stable financial sector. The EU has, up to now, provided the framework within which UK regulation of the financial sector has been designed, applied, and supervised. The nature of the UK’s relationship with the EU following its exit from the EU has yet to be determined. But the consequences of the extraction of the UK from EU financial governance are likely to be disruptive in nature and long term in duration. This short note highlights some of the many implications from a regulatory perspective. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2016–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:67292&r=cse |
| By: | Kazenin Konstantin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | One of the vectors of change in the North Caucasus in 2015 was the abolition of direct popular vote in the elections of heads of municipal formations. Very few of the municipal districts, urban districts, urban-type and rural settlements across the North Caucasus are still applying the system of forming the bodies of local self-government (LSG) that envisages that the head of a given administrative entity should be elected by direct popular vote. The most drastic changes in this respect occurred in 2015 in the Republic of Dagestan, where new legislation was adopted whereby a uniform method for forming the bodies of LSG was introduced for the entire region, when only the deputies of rural settlement and urban district assemblies are elected directly by popular vote. That region can serve as an illustration of how the ‘rolling back’ of direct popular elections to LSG is fraught with significant risks, and so cannot be regarded as a stabilizing factor. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, North Caucasus |
| JEL: | H11 H70 H77 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-241&r=cse |
| By: | Mattia Cai, Niccolò Cusumano, Arturo Lorenzoni, Federico Pontoni |
| Abstract: | A massive deployment of renewable electricity generation took place in Italy in less than eight years. A generous feed-in tariff, coupled with favourable institutional conditions, allowed the installation of more than 28 GW of PV, wind and other RES technologies. By 2014, Italy has already attained its 2020 goals on RES production. Besides, environmental objectives and compliance with EU targets, the policy was aimed at promoting green jobs and industrial production of RES technologies. Exante economic analyses advocated considerable economic and industrial spill-overs from the introduction of RES support policies. Despite official rhetoric and ex-ante studies about jobs and economic growth associated to RES adoption, at scholarly level there is no consensus on the actual effects and implications of these policies on National economies. This paper provides a first comprehensive ex-post analysis of the Italian case, filling an important gap. Our analysis is carried out with the development of a specific input-output model, with refined technological vectors and with the internalization of trade coefficients. We show that the effects have been unequivocally lower than expected; that most of the jobs created belonged to the service sector and not to the industrial sector and that the value added was much lower than expected due to significant export leakages. |
| Keywords: | Value added, job creation, import leakage, renewable energy, support schemes |
| JEL: | J08 O13 Q40 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcu:iefewp:iefewp88&r=cse |
| By: | Chattopadhyay, Siddhartha; Ghosh, Taniya |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes optimal monetary policy under zero lower bound in the presence of cost channel. Cost channel introduces trade-off between output and inflation when economy is out of ZLB. As a result, exit time both under discretion and commitment is endogenous in the presence of cost channel. We also find that commitment outperforms discretion by promising future boom and inflation and a T-only policy closely replicates commitment both under presence and absence of cost channel. Moreover, the exit date (from ZLB) under discretion, commitment and T-only policy rises with the magnitude of demand shock given the degree of interest rate pass-through irrespective if the cost channel is present. We also show that, while exit date both under discretion and T-only policy rises with the degree of interest rate pass-through/credit market imperfection, it falls under commitment given demand shock. |
| Keywords: | New-Keynesian Model, Cost Channel, Liquidity Trap |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E63 |
| Date: | 2016–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72762&r=cse |
| By: | Lin, Dajun (University of Virginia); Lutter, Randall (University of Virginia); Ruhm, Christopher J. (University of Virginia) |
| Abstract: | We use information from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) and supplementary data sources to examine how cognitive performance, measured at approximately the end of secondary schooling, is related to the labor market outcomes of 20 through 50 year olds. Our estimates control for a wide array of individual and family background characteristics, a limited set of non-cognitive attributes, survey year dummy variables and, sometimes, geographic place effects. The analysis reveals five main findings. First, cognitive performance is positively associated with future labor market outcomes at all ages. The relationship is attenuated but not eliminated by the addition of controls for non-cognitive characteristics, while the inclusion of place effects does not change the estimated associations. Second, the returns to cognitive skill increase with age. Third, the effect on total incomes reflects a combination of positive impacts of cognitive performance for both hourly wages and annual work hours. Fourth, the returns to cognitive skill are greater for women than men and for blacks and Hispanics than for non-Hispanic whites, with differential effects on work hours being more important than corresponding changes in hourly wages. Fifth, the average gains in lifetime incomes predicted to result from greater levels of cognitive performance are only slightly above those reported in prior studies but the effects are heterogeneous, with larger relative and absolute increases, in most models, for nonwhites or Hispanics than for non-Hispanic whites, and higher relative but not absolute returns for women than men. |
| Keywords: | cognitive performance, cognitive skill, labor market outcomes, labor income, earnings, work hours |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J31 J38 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10075&r=cse |
| By: | Ding, Sai (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences); Dong, Xiao-Yuan (University of Winnipeg, Manitoba); Maurer-Fazio, Margaret (Bates College) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we explore the intersectionality of religious and ethnic norms and gender relations across the domestic and public spheres of work in post-reform rural, minority-concentrated China. We focus on the role that children play in their parents' off-farm work decisions for three aggregated ethnic groups (majority Han, Muslim minorities, and non- Muslim minorities). We control for households' composition and economic characteristics and individuals' human capital and as well as local economic conditions. Children generally decrease women's willingness to work away from/outside the home and increase men's willingness to do so. When we focus specifically on the effects of pre-school children, our results suggest it is more socially acceptable for non-Muslim than Muslim women to work away from home. When we turn our attention to school-age children, the gender of the child becomes as important to the analysis as the gender of the parent. With regard to household composition, we find that in Muslim households the presence of extra adult men (of any age between 15 and 70) in the household reduces the likelihood that women engage in off-farm work. The presence in the household of a woman of grandmotherly age (between 46 and 70) supports Muslim minority women's ability to migrate for work. For non-Muslim households, grandfathers and grandmothers alike, facilitate the ability of parents (male and female) to migrate for work. |
| Keywords: | off-farm work, ethnicity, household composition, children, migration, China |
| JEL: | J14 J15 J16 J26 D13 O53 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10073&r=cse |
| By: | Ross D. King |
| Abstract: | Money is a technology for promoting economic prosperity. Over history money has become increasingly abstract, it used to be hardware, gold coins and the like, now it is mostly software, data structures located in banks. Here I propose the logical conclusion of the abstraction of money: to use as money the most general form of information - computer programs. The key advantage that using programs for money (program-money) adds to the technology of money is agency. Program-money is active and thereby can fully participate in economics as economic agents. I describe the three basic technologies required to implement program-money: computational languages/logics to unambiguously describe the actions and interactions of program-money; computational cryptography to ensure that only the correct actions and interactions are performed; and a distributed computational environment in which the money can execute. I demonstrate that most of the technology for program-money has already been developed. The adoption of program-money transfers responsibility from human economic agents to money itself and has great potential economic advantages over the current passive form of money. For example in microeconomics, adding agency to money will simplify the exchange of ownership, ensure money is only used legally, automate the negotiation and forming of contracts, etc. Similar advantages occur in macroeconomics, where for example the control of the money supply could be transferred from central banks to money. It is also possible to envisage money that is not owned by any external human agent or corporation. One motivation for this is to force economic systems to behave more rationally and/or more like a specific economic theory, thereby increasing the success of economic forecasting. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1608.00878&r=cse |
| By: | Eder, Christoph (University of Innsbruck); Halla, Martin (University of Innsbruck) |
| Abstract: | As a consequence of World War II, Austria was divided into four different occupation zones for 10 years. Before tight travel restrictions came into place, about 11 percent of the population residing in the Soviet zone moved across the demarcation line. We exploit this large internal migration shock to further our understanding of why economic activity is distributed unevenly across space. Our analysis shows that the distorted population distribution across locations has fully persisted until today (60 years after the demarcation line become obsolete). An analysis of more direct measures of economic activity shows an even higher concentration in the former non-Soviet zone. This gap in economic activity is growing over time, mainly due to commuting streams out of the former Soviet zone. This shows that a transitory shock is capable of shifting an economy to a new spatial equilibrium, which provides strong evidence for the importance of increasing returns to scale in explaining the spatial distribution of economic activity. |
| Keywords: | spatial equilibrium, agglomeration effects, population shock, World War II, Austria |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R23 J61 N44 N94 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10095&r=cse |
| By: | Ana-Alexandrina POPESCU (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest) |
| Abstract: | In the present article I propose to address some of the problems of financing social protection systems and we chose to analyze the partial financing of budgetary funds of a non-profit organization, funds which they can use in order to continue and develop further projects within social economy. The main purpose of the social economy, compared with the market economy order is not making profit, but is to improve living conditions and delivering new for disadvantaged or vulnerable part of. Case study exposed, reveals how an NGO can to keep the values which characterize - transparency, responsibility, accountability, integrity, solidarity, courage, justice, democracy - through economic power and it can get during its evolution. I will present a few milestones of financing social protection systems in case the Romanian Association for Transparency has managed to highlight the social economy structures in Romania. This study is intended to be a research paper in order to analyze means of obtaining allocations of funds for development organizations, organizations that play an important role in supporting government policies. We presented the sources of funding that an association may use in order to accomplish the objectives and to capitalize know-how, while continuing to engage in social life, making her known values and Principe. The use of budgetary funds and the non-refundable but is an alternative to obtaining a possibility of self-financing organization and implementation of social policies and processes in different systems of social protection financing. |
| Keywords: | financing systems social protection, financing the social economy, the use of budgetary funds in self-financing organization |
| JEL: | G28 H51 P51 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eub:wpaper:2016-04&r=cse |
| By: | Cao, Jerry (Singapore Management University); Julio, Brandon (University of Oregon); Leng, Tiecheng (Singapore Management University); Zhou, Sili (Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of political influence and ownership on corporate investment by exploiting the unique way provincial leaders are selected and promoted in China. The tournament-style promotion system creates incentives for new provincial governors to exert their influence over capital allocation, particularly during the early years of their term. Using a neighboring-province difference-in-differences estimation approach, we find that there is a divergence in investment rates between state owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-state owned enterprises (non-SOEs) following political turnover. SOEs experience an abnormal increase in investment by 6.0% in the year following the turnover, consistent with the incentives of a new governor to stimulate investment. In contrast, investment rates for non-SOEs decline significantly post-turnover, suggesting that the political influence exerted over SOEs crowds out private investment. The effects of political turnover on investment are mainly driven by normal turnovers, and turnovers with less-educated or local-born successors. Finally, we provide evidence that the political incentives around the turnover of provincial governors represent a misallocation of capital as measures of investment efficiency decline post-turnover. |
| Keywords: | Corporate investment, Political turnover, China, SOE, Political uncertainty, Grabbing-hand, Crowding out, Investment efficiency |
| JEL: | G30 G31 G38 |
| Date: | 2016–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2016-06&r=cse |
| By: | Zachary Stangebye (University of Notre Dame); Satyajit Chatterjee (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Harold Cole (University of Pennsylvania); Mark Aguiar (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | Sovereign debt spreads occasionally exhibit sharp, large spikes in spreads over risk-free bonds. We document that these movements are only weakly correlated with movements in domestic output and are frequently followed by reductions in the face value of debt outstanding. Motivated by this evidence, we propose a quantitative model with long-term bonds and three sources of risk: fluctuations in the growth of domestic income; movements in the risk premia associated with default risk; and shifts in creditor ``beliefs'' regarding the actions of other creditors. We show that the shifts in creditor beliefs directly play an important role in generating default risk, but also amplify the impact of shocks to fundamentals. Interestingly, persistent changes to risk premia have a negligible impact on spreads, and an increase in risk premium may even lead to a decline in spreads. The latter reflects that a higher risk premium provides discipline regarding future debt issuances. More generally, the sovereign borrowing decisions are quantitatively sensitive to equilibrium bond prices. Even large, relatively unexpected shocks to creditor beliefs have only a modest effect on spreads as the government responds by aggressively deleveraging. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:360&r=cse |
| By: | Thomas I. Palley |
| Abstract: | NIRP is quickly becoming a consensus policy within the economics establishment. This paper argues that consensus is dangerously wrong, resting on flawed theory and flawed policy assessment. Regarding theory, NIRP draws on fallacious pre-Keynesian economic logic that asserts interest rate adjustment can ensure full employment. That pre-Keynesian logic has been augmented by ZLB economics which claims times of severe demand shortage may require negative interest rates, which policy must deliver since the market cannot. Regarding policy assessment, NIRP turns a blind eye to the possibility that negative interest rates may reduce AD, cause financial fragility, create a macroeconomics of whiplash owing to contradictions between policy today and tomorrow, promote currency wars that undermine the international economy, and foster a political economy that spawns toxic politics. Worst of all, NIRP maintains and encourages the flawed model of growth, based on debt and asset price inflation, which has already done such harm. |
| Keywords: | Negative interest rate policy, zero lower bound |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:wpaper:172-2016&r=cse |
| By: | Timothy McQuade (Stanford University); Arvind Krishnamurthy (Stanford University); Adam Guren (Boston University) |
| Abstract: | How can mortgages be redesigned or modified in a crisis to reduce housing market volatility, consumption volatility, and default? We answer these questions using a quantitative general equilibrium life cycle model with aggregate shocks in which households have realistic long-term mortgages and a rich set of choices as to whether to prepay, refinance, move, or default, and household and lender decisions aggregate up to determine house prices. The calibrated model is used to quantitatively assess how different mortgage contracts affect housing market volatility, particularly in busts like the Great Recession. In this preliminary draft, we focus on comparing fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). Although FRMs allow homeowners to increase consumption by locking in a low rate, this effect is swamped by the insurance benefits of ARMs in a crisis. ARMs reduce default and improves consumption smoothing, particularly for young and high LTV homeowners. Quantitatively, in a crisis episode defaults are 50 percent lower with ARMs, and over five years the cumulative consumption-equivalent welfare loss under ARMs is 20 percent of annual consumption. These findings suggest that welfare could be improved dramatically by introducing the insurance features of ARMs into mortgage designs. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:371&r=cse |
| By: | Avram, Silvia (University of Essex); Brewer, Mike (ISER, University of Essex); Salvatori, Andrea (ISER, University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | Increasing the labour market participation of single parents, whether to boost incomes or reduce welfare spending, is a major policy objectives in a number of countries. This paper presents causal evidence on the impact of work search requirements on single parents' transitions into work and onto other benefits. We use rich administrative data on all single parent welfare recipients, and apply a difference-in-differences approach that exploits the staggered roll-out of a reform in the UK that gradually decreased the age of the youngest child at which single parents lose the right to an unconditional cash benefit. Consistent with the predictions of a simple search model, the work search requirements have heterogeneous impacts, leading some single parents to move into work (especially those with strong previous labour market attachments), but leading some (especially those with weak previous labour market attachments) to move onto disability benefits (with no search conditionalities) or non-claimant unemployment. |
| Keywords: | single parents, active labour market policy, work search conditionalities |
| JEL: | H53 I38 J64 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10106&r=cse |
| By: | Haucap, Justus; Loebert, Ina; Spindler, Gerald; Thorwarth, Susanne |
| Abstract: | [Das Wichtigste in Kürze] Die Bundesregierung hat im Koalitionsvertrag sowie in ihrer Digitalen Agenda beschlossen, den Belangen von Wissenschaft, Forschung und Bildung durch Einführung einer Wissenschafts- und Bildungsschranke im Urheberrecht besonders Rechnung zu tragen. Ziel dieser Bildungs- und Wissenschaftsschranke ist es, die Chancen, welche die Digitalisierung für Bildung und Forschung zweifellos bietet, auch im Urheberrechtsgesetz (UrhG) zu berücksichtigen. Solche urheberrechtlichen Schranken für Bildung, Wissenschaft und Forschung existieren bereits und sind in den §§ 46, 47, 52a, 52b, 53 und 53a UrhG verankert. Problematisch ist, dass diese Regelungen verstreut im UrhG enthalten sind; darunter leidet die Übersichtlichkeit für die Nutzerinnen und Nutzer. Hinzu kommt, dass einzelne Regeln oft kompliziert und schwer verständlich sind. Im Jahr 2014 gaben die öffentlichen Bildungs- und Wissenschaftseinrichtungen etwa 1 Mrd. Euro für den Erwerb von urheberrechtlich geschütztem Material aus. Davon entfiel etwa die Hälfte auf die wissenschaftlichen Bibliotheken von Hochschulen und Forschungsinstituten. Die an die Verwertungsgesellschaften gezahlte Vergütung für die Anwendung der Schranken des Urheberrechts im Bereich der Bildungs- und Wissenschaftseinrichtungen belief sich hingegen auf etwa 32,5 Millionen Euro. In der vorliegenden Studie wurden insgesamt 303 wissenschaftliche Bibliotheken von Hochschulen und Forschungsinstituten sowie 133 hauptamtlich geführte Stadtbibliotheken mittels eines Fragebogens hinsichtlich der Verteilung ihrer Erwerbungsausgaben, ihrer Kritikpunkte und Erweiterungswünsche das bestehende Urheberrecht betreffend befragt. Die Umfrage unter wissenschaftlichen Bibliotheken und Stadtbibliotheken hat gezeigt, dass gerade bei den Stadtbibliotheken nach wie vor die traditionellen Medien wie Printbücher und Printausgaben von Zeitschriften im Vordergrund stehen. Gut zwei Drittel ihres Erwerbungsetats entfallen auf diese Posten. Elektronische Zeitschriften hingegen spielen kaum eine Rolle. Anders verhält sich dies bei den wissenschaftlichen Bibliotheken, die mittlerweile gut 40 % ihrer Erwerbungsmittel für E-Journals und E-Books ausgeben, wobei ein Gros, d. h. 30,7 %, für E-Journals aufgewendet wird. Zudem lässt sich festhalten, dass Stadtbibliotheken kaum von den geltenden Schrankenregelungen Gebrauch machen. Diese werden vor allem von den wissenschaftlichen Bibliotheken in Anspruch genommen. Besonders die Bibliotheken großer Hochschulen, welche stark in die Fernleihe (sowohl „gebend“ als auch „nehmend“) eingebunden sind, machen besonders häufig von den Regelungen hinsichtlich des Kopienversandes Gebrauch. Kaum genutzt wird hingegen die Wiedergabe von Werken an elektronischen Leseplätzen sowie die Bereitstellung von urheberrechtlich geschütztem Material im Rahmen elektronischer Leseplätze. Der Grund hierfür liegt sicherlich in den zahlreichen restriktiven Bedingungen, die im aktuellen Urheberrecht verankert sind. [...] |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diceop:86&r=cse |
| By: | Tom Krebs; Moritz Kuhn; Mark Wright |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a tractable human capital model with limited enforceability of contracts. The model economy is populated by a large number of long-lived, risk-averse households with homothetic preferences who can invest in risk-free physical capital and risky human capital. Households have access to a complete set of credit and insurance contracts, but their ability to use the available financial instruments is limited by the possibility of default (limited contract enforcement). We provide a convenient equilibrium characterization that facilitates the computation of recursive equilibria substantially. We use a calibrated version of the model with stochastically aging households divided into 9 age groups. Younger households have higher expected human capital returns than older households. According to the baseline calibration, for young households less than half of human capital risk is insured and the welfare losses due to the lack of insurance range from 3 percent of lifetime consumption (age 40) to 7 percent of lifetime consumption (age 23). Realistic variations in the model parameters have non-negligible effects on equilibrium insurance and welfare, but the result that young households are severely underinsured is robust to such variations. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital Risk, Limited Enforcement, Insurance |
| JEL: | E21 E24 D52 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-48&r=cse |
| By: | Vittorio Daniele; Pasquale Foresti; Oreste Napolitano |
| Abstract: | Money demand stability is a crucial issue for monetary policy efficacy, and it is particularly endangered when substantial changes occur in the monetary system. By implementing the ARDL technique, this study intends to estimate the impact of money demand determinants in Italy over a long period (1861–2011) and to investigate the stability of the estimated relations. We show that instability cannot be excluded when a standard money demand function is estimated, irrespectively of the use of M1 or M2. Then, we argue that the reason for possible instability resides in the omission of relevant variables, as we show that a fully stable demand for narrow money (M1) can be obtained from an augmented money demand function involving real exchange rate and its volatility as additional explanatory variables. These results also allow us to argue that narrower monetary aggregates should be employed in order to obtain a stable estimated relation. |
| Keywords: | Italy; money demand stability; monetary aggregates; exchange rate; ARDL |
| JEL: | C22 E41 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:67219&r=cse |
| By: | Gary Jefferson (Brandeis University) |
| Abstract: | China’s surge into global middle-income status over the space of three decades has been spectacular. However, a potentially large and burdensome cost has been imposed on a generation of adolescents and young adults who abandoned the countryside, and with it access to basic education, in order to seek the anticipated advantages of jobs in the country’s burgeoning urban-industrial sector. This large swath of off-farm migrants transformed China. It propelled China to the status of the “world’s factory” and created the scale and accumulated learning-by-doing enabling China’s transition to a “knowledge economy” that no longer depends on the labor of China’s new “Lost Generation.” As the Lost Generation and its left-behind children, who suffer from a chronic lack of schooling, thicken the lower tail of China’s income distribution, it may be the rising, prosperous urban middle class that ultimately incurs the social, economic, and political challenges associated with China’s generation of off-farm migrant households once essential for launching China’s economic ascent. |
| JEL: | J21 J24 J31 O15 O33 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:brd:wpaper:107&r=cse |
| By: | Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The crisis of 2008-2009 determined main structural changes in the formation of investment resources during post-crisis period up to 2015. Easing of economic growth rates was accompanied by a contraction of the share of gross savings in GDP from 30.2% in 2008 to 22.9% in 2014 and 23.1% in 2015. During 2010-2013 investment in fixed assets constituted around 20.0%. In 2014, owing to a reduction of revenues in the economy the share of investment in fixed assets fell to 17.8% and in 2015 came to 18.1% of GDP. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, fixed investment |
| JEL: | E20 E21 E22 E60 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-257&r=cse |
| By: | Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The crisis of 2008-2009 determined main structural changes in the formation of investment resources during post-crisis period up to 2015. Easing of economic growth rates was accompanied by a contraction of the share of gross savings in GDP from 30.2% in 2008 to 22.9% in 2014 and 23.1% in 2015. During 2010-2013 investment in fixed assets constituted around 20.0%. In 2014, owing to a reduction of revenues in the economy the share of investment in fixed assets fell to 17.8% and in 2015 came to 18.1% of GDP. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, fixed investment |
| JEL: | E20 E21 E22 E60 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-256&r=cse |
| By: | Cornelis S. L. de Graaf; Drona Kandhai; Christoph Reisinger |
| Abstract: | The focus of this paper is the efficient computation of counterparty credit risk exposure on portfolio level. Here, the large number of risk factors rules out traditional PDE-based techniques and allows only a relatively small number of paths for nested Monte Carlo simulations, resulting in large variances of estimators in practice. We propose a novel approach based on Kolmogorov forward and backward PDEs, where we counter the high dimensionality by a generalisation of anchored-ANOVA decompositions. By computing only the most significant term in the decomposition, the dimensionality is reduced effectively, such that a significant computational speed-up arises from the high accuracy of PDE schemes in low dimensions compared to Monte Carlo estimation. Moreover, we show how this truncated decomposition can be used as control variate for the full high-dimensional model, such that any approximation errors can be corrected while a substantial variance reduction is achieved compared to the standard simulation approach. We investigate the accuracy for a realistic portfolio of exchange options, interest rate and cross-currency swaps under a fully calibrated seven-factor model. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1608.01197&r=cse |
| By: | Alexander Herzog-Stein; Camille Logeay; Ulrike Stein; Rudolf Zwiener |
| Abstract: | Das IMK analysiert regelmäßig mittels Daten von Eurostat die Entwicklung der Arbeits- und der Lohnstückkosten in Europa. Dabei wird die Entwicklung der Arbeitskosten in der Privatwirtschaft, im privaten und im öffentlichen Dienstleistungssektor und im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe in wichtigen europäischen Ländern sowie dem Euroraum und der Europäischen Union als Ganzes dargestellt. In dieser aktuellen Auswertung wird auch der Frage nachgegangen, inwieweit die Einführung des allgemeinen gesetzlichen Mindestlohns im Jahr 2015 in Höhe von ?8,50 pro Stunde in Deutschland Einfluss auf den Anstieg der Arbeitskosten insgesamt hatte. Im Anschluss daran wird die Entwicklung der Lohnstückkosten untersucht und den Auswirkungen auf die preisliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit nachgegangen.Im Jahr 2015 kostete in Deutschland eine Arbeitsstunde in der Privatwirtschaft 32,7 Euro. Wie im Vorjahr belegt Deutschland damit im europäischen Länderranking den achten Platz. Mit einer Veränderungsrate von 2,7 % stiegen die Arbeitskosten in Deutschland im Jahr 2017 stärker als im europäischen Durchschnitt. In den meisten Krisenländern stagnierten oder sanken die Arbeitskosten erneut. In Deutschland sind im Jahr 2015 die Arbeitskosten im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe mit 2,7 % genauso stark gestiegen wie im Privaten Dienstleistungssektor. Damit hat sich der prozentuale Abstand zwischen beiden Wirtschaftsbereichen zwar nicht erhöht, beträgt aber immer noch wie im letzten Jahr über 21%. Das ist der größte Abstand zwischen den Sektoren von allen EU Mitgliedsländern.Die Anpassungsprozesse der Krisenländer haben sich auch im Jahr 2015 fortgesetzt, so dass die durchschnittliche Lohnstückkostenentwicklung des Euroraums mit 1% deutlich unter der Zielinflationsrate der EZB von knapp 2 % lag. Damit entwickelt sich der Euroraum als Ganzes nicht stabilitätskonform. In Deutschland stiegen die Lohnstückkosten um 2 %. Da die deutschen Lohnstückkosten aber seit Beginn der Währungsunion deutlich schwächer gestiegen sind, als mit dem Inflationsziel der EZB vereinbar, sollten die Löhne in Deutschland über mehrere Jahre hinweg deutlich überdurchschnittlich steigen, um den Anpassungsprozess der Krisenländer zu unterstützen. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:report:116-2016&r=cse |
| By: | Philippe Mossé (LEST - Laboratoire d'économie et de sociologie du travail - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille 2 - Université de Provence - Aix-Marseille 1 - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | An ageing population is a challenge for every country as the " demographic transition " is about to be an universal phenomenon. In this paper are first analyzed the two main dimensions of this dynamic. The first one is the demographic transition as such. Traditionally stages are defined that are placed in a chronological way. Each country being at different stage. The second dimension is the financing one, as it is necessary to allocate resources in a more efficient way that market forces would do. In a second part, the controversial impact on health care cost will be discussed. It will be demonstrated that the " last wagon " syndrome is nowadays proven. As a result, the rise of the life expectancy will not be such a burden for health insurance, whatever the models (Beveridge or Bismarck) are. To go further in the analysis of policies oriented toward caring elderly, some hints of European policy experience will be given. Beyond the European model ideology, studies show a double divide between South and North and between old and new European Union members. To conclude, the Brazilian situation will be shortly described in the light of the on going dynamic. |
| Abstract: | El envejecimiento de la población es un reto para todos los países desde el momento en que "transición demográfica" está a punto de ser un fenómeno universal. En este trabajo se analiza la primera vez que las dos dimensiones principales de esta dinámica. La primera es la transición demográfica como tal. Etapas definidas tradicionalmente se colocan en orden cronológico. Cada país está en una etapa diferente. La segunda dimensión es la necesidad financiera para asignar recursos de manera más eficiente que las fuerzas del mercado. En la segunda parte, se discutirá el polémico impacto en el costo de la atención de salud. Se demostró que el síndrome de "último coche" ahora se ha demostrado día. Como resultado, el aumento de la esperanza de vida no será un problema para los sistemas de salud, independientemente del modelo de salud (Beveridge o Bismarck). Para ir más allá en el análisis de las políticas para el cuidado de los ancianos, se mostrará algunas de las experiencias de la política europea en la materia. A pesar de la adición de la ideología europea, los estudios muestran una doble brecha entre el Norte y el Sur y entre los nuevos y antiguos miembros de la UE. En conclusión, la situación brasileña se describirá brevemente a la luz de la dinámica en curso |
| Abstract: | O envelhecimento da população é um desafio para todos os países a partir do momento em que "transição demográfica" está prestes a ser um fenômeno universal. Neste artigo são analisadas pela primeira vez as duas dimensões principais desta dinâmica. O primeiro deles é a transição demográfica como tal. Tradicionalmente, estágios definidos são colocados de forma cronológica. Cada país está em uma fase diferente. A segunda dimensão é sobre necessidade financeira para alocar recursos de forma mais eficiente que as forças de mercado faria. Numa segunda parte, será discutido o impacto controverso no custo de cuidados de saúde. Será demonstrado que a síndrome do "último vagão" é hoje em dia comprovada. Como resultado, o aumento da expectativa de vida não será um problema para os sistemas de saúde, independente do modelo de saúde (Beveridge ou Bismarck). Para ir mais longe na análise das políticas voltadas para cuidar de idosos, serão mostradas algumas experiências de políticas europeias sobre o assunto. Apesar da Além da ideologia europeia, estudos mostram uma dupla divisão entre Sul e Norte e entre os novos e antigos membros da União Européia. Para concluir, a situação brasileira será brevemente descrita à luz da dinâmica em curso. |
| Keywords: | ageing,social policy,care,Europe,Envejecimiento, la política social, cuidado, Europa,envelhecimento,política social,cuidado,Europa |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01306562&r=cse |
| By: | Chen, Daniel L. |
| Abstract: | U.S. Presidential elections polarize U.S. Courts of Appeals judges, doubling their dissents, partisan voting, and lawmaking along partisan lines and increasing their reversal of District Court decisions (Berdejo and Chen 2016). Dissents are elevated for ten months before the Presidential elections. I develop a theoretical model showing that the salience of partisan identities drives these behavioral patterns. The polarizing effects are larger in close elections, non-existent in landslide elections, and reversed in wartime elections. I link judges to their states of residence and exploit variation in the timing and importance of a state during the electoral season. Dissents are elevated in swing states and in states that count heavily to winning the election, when these states are competitive. U.S. Senate elections, the timing of which also varies by state, further elevate dissents. I link administrative data on case progression and frequency of campaign advertisements in judges’ states of residence to proxy for a state’s importance during Presidential primaries. Dissents occur shortly before publication, increase with monthly increases in campaign ads, and appear for cases whose legal topic, economic activity, is most heavily covered by campaign ads. Finally, I link the cases to their potential resolution in the Supreme Court. Dissents before elections appear on more marginal cases that cite discretionary miscellaneous issues and procedural (rather than substantive) arguments, which the Supreme Court appears to recognize and only partly remedy. The behavioral changes of unelected Courts of Appeals judges are larger than the behavioral changes of elected judges running for re-election. |
| Keywords: | Judicial Decision-Making, Group Decision-Making, Moral Decision-Making, Salience |
| JEL: | D7 K00 Z1 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:iastwp:30640&r=cse |
| By: | Ali Hosseiny; Mohammad Bahrami; Antonio Palestrini; Mauro Gallegati |
| Abstract: | It has been proved that network structure plays an important role in addressing a collective behaviour. In this paper we consider a network of firms and corporations and study its metastable features in an Ising based model. In our model, we observe that if in a recession the government imposes a demand shock to stimulate the network, metastable features shape its response. Actually we find that there is a minimum bound where demand shocks with a size below it are unable to trigger the market out from recession. We then investigate the impact of network characteristics on this minimum bound. We surprisingly observe that in a Watts-Strogatz network though the minimum bound depends on the average of the degrees, when translated into the economics language, such a bound is independent of the average degrees. This bound is about $0.44 \Delta$GDP, where $\Delta$GDP is the gap of GDP between recession and expansion. We examine our suggestions for the cases of the United States and the European Union in the recent recession, and compare them with the imposed stimulations. While stimulation in the US has been above our threshold, in the EU it has been far below our threshold. Beside providing a minimum bound for a successful stimulation, our study on the metastable features suggests that in the time of crisis there is a "golden time passage" in which the minimum bound for successful stimulation can be much lower. So, our study strongly suggests stimulations to be started within this time passage. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1608.00275&r=cse |
| By: | Hélia Costa; Graham Floater; Hans Hooyberghs; Stijn Verbeke; Koen De Ridder |
| Abstract: | Cities are particularly vulnerable to heat waves. Despite this, no comprehensive methodology has been developed to assess the costs of heat stress on city economies either currently or under future climate change scenarios. Here, we develop a cost methodology that integrates urban climate modelling with labour productivity and economic production. It is designed to be tailored by policy makers and transferable from one city to another. As such it provides a potentially powerful policy tool for assessing the exposure of different economic sectors and the key mechanisms resulting in urban production losses under climate change. Results show that the impacts of heat on the urban economy are highly variable and depend on characteristics of production, such as the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour, and the relative size of different sectors in the economy. We estimate that in a warm year in the far future (2081-2100), the total losses to the urban economy could range between 0.4% of Gross Value Added (GVA) for London and 9.5% for Bilbao in the absence of adaptation. The averted losses due to adaptation measures such as behaviour change, air conditioning, ventilation, insulation and solar blinds range from -€114 million to over €2.3 billion. The methodology demonstrates the substantial impact that climate change could have on different sectors of the city economy, such as the financial services industry in London. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp248&r=cse |
| By: | Piergiuseppe Morone (University of Rome & Unitelma Sapienza, Italy); Pasquale Marcello Falcone (University of Ancona, Italy); Enrica Imbert (University of Rome & Unitelma Sapienza, Italy); Marcello Morone (Independent); Andrea Morone (Università degli Studi di Bari, Italy & LEE-Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | Food security, along with growing population and the associated environmental concerns, make food waste and loss a central topic in economic analysis. While food losses occur mostly at the production, postharvest and processing phases of the supply chain, food waste takes place mainly at the end of the chain and therefore concerns primarily the habits and behaviour patterns of retailers and consumers. Many solutions and practices have been proposed and oftentimes implemented in order to “keep food out of landfills”, thus reducing food waste at the source. However, little attention has been paid to the possible sharing of consumer-side food surplus. In this context, food sharing could represent an effective way to tackle food waste at the consumers’ level, with both environmental and economic potential positive effects. Currently, several initiatives and start-ups are being developed in the US and Europe, involving the collection and use of the excess of food from consumers and retailers and the promotion of collaborative consumption models (e.g. Foodsharing, Growington, Feastly, etc.). Nevertheless, there is still little empirical evidence testing the effectiveness of introducing sharing economy approaches to reduce food waste. This study seeks to fill this gap through a framed field experiment. We run two experimental treatments; in the control treatment students were asked to behave according to their regular food consumption habits, and in the food sharing treatment the same students were instructed to purchase food, cook and consume it collectively. Preliminary results showed that the adoption by households of food sharing practices do not automatically translate into food waste reduction. A number of factors (environmental and economic awareness, domestic skills and collaborative behaviors) might act as ‘enablers’ to make sharing practices effective. |
| Keywords: | Food waste, sharing economy, food sharing, framed field experiment |
| JEL: | C93 L66 Q50 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2016/11&r=cse |
| By: | Carlo Galli (University College London); Marco Bassetto (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the financial crisis, countries which had control over their monetary policy, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan, were able to borrow at extremely low rates, even though they experienced very high deficit/GDP ratios (the UK) or debt/GDP ratios (Japan). In contrast, peripheral Eurozone countries with a high deficit/GDP ratio (Spain) or a high debt/GDP ratio (Italy) faced volatile interest rates. In a frictionless benchmark, default and inflation have the same economic effect. Creditors care about the real rate of return on their investment: whether they anticipate losing money to default or inflation, they will require an identical interest rate spread over risk-free bonds. We break this equivalence by introducing two classes of heterogeneously informed agents: bondholders, who decide whether to roll over their credit, and workers, who decide whether to accept currency in payment for their services. Domestic and foreign-currency borrowing are now distinguished by the identity of the marginal agent who triggers a crisis. We show conditions under which domestic-currency debt makes the economy more resilient to fiscal shocks. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:308&r=cse |
| By: | You, Jing; Wang, Shaoyang |
| Abstract: | We assess the unemployment duration-dependent impact of the 2008 Labor Contract Law on job finding probabilities and subsequently job-match quality, including job security, wages and employer-provided social insurance. Dynamic endogeneity underlying individuals’ sequential labor market outcomes is addressed by sharp regression discontinuity and correlated individual unobservables settling into non-parametric joint distribution. The law protracts employment only in the short-term. After job match, the law stabilizes employment and increases wages and insurance coverage, all in the short-term with substantial differences between urban locals and migrant workers and heterogeneity in gender. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, wage, social insurance, regression-discontinuity design, China |
| JEL: | C41 J64 J65 O53 |
| Date: | 2016–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72767&r=cse |
| By: | Gurven, Michael; Hopfensitz, Astrid; Kaplan, Hillard; Stieglitz, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Two disparate views of the sexual division of labour have dominated the 53 representation of intra-household resource allocations. These joint and separate interests 54 views differ in their interpretation of the relative roles of men and women, and make different 55 predictions about the extent to which marriage promotes economic efficiency (i.e. maximized 56 household production). Using an experimental “distribution task” stipulating a trade-off 57 between household efficiency and spousal equality in allocating surpluses of meat and 58 money, we examine factors influencing spousal distribution preferences among Tsimane 59 forager-horticulturalists of Bolivia (n=53 couples). Our primary goal is to understand whether 60 and how access to perfectly fungible and liquid resources – which increases with greater 61 participation in market economies – shifts intra-household distribution preferences. We 62 hypothesize that greater fungibility of money compared to meat results in greater squandering 63 of money for individual fitness gain at a cost to the family. Money therefore requires costly 64 strategies to insure against a partner’s claims for consumption. Whereas nearly all Tsimane 65 spouses prefer efficient meat distributions, we find a substantially reduced efficiency 66 preference for money compared to meat controlling for potential confounders (adjusted 67 OR=0.087, 95% CI: 0.02-0.38). Reported marital conflict over paternal disinvestment is 68 associated with a nearly 13-fold increase in odds of revealing a selfish money distribution 69 preference. Selfish husbands are significantly more likely than other husbands to be paired 70 with selfish wives. Lastly, Tsimane husbands and wives are more likely than Western 71 Europeans to prefer an efficient money distribution, but Tsimane wives are more likely than 72 Western European wives to exhibit a selfish preference. In sum, preferences for the 73 distribution of household production surplus support joint and separate interests views of 74 marriage; a hybrid approach best explains how ecological-, family-, and individual-level 75 factors influence spousal preferences through their effects on perceptions of marginal gains 76 within and outside the household. |
| Keywords: | Intra-household distribution, sexual division of labour, family, marriage, bargaining, Tsimane |
| JEL: | C90 D13 F |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:iastwp:30549&r=cse |
| By: | Singh, Prakarsh (Amherst College); Masters, William A. (Tufts University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence of effectiveness for performance pay among government caregivers to improve child health in India. In a controlled study of 160 daycare centers serving over 4,000 children, we randomly assign individual workers to receive either fixed bonuses or incentive payments based on the weight‐for‐age nutritional status of children in their care, and also collect data from a control group receiving only their standard salary. Mothers of children in all three study arms receive nutrition information. We find that performance pay reduces the prevalence of underweight by about 5 percentage points over 3 months, and height improves by about one centimeter. Impacts are sustained in the medium term when incentives are renewed but fade when they are discontinued. Fixed bonuses lead to smaller effects. Both treatments appear to improve worker effort and communication with mothers, who in turn feed a more calorific diet to their children at home. |
| Keywords: | performance pay, incentives, malnutrition, undernutrition, underweight, child development, child health, Anganwadis, ICDS, nutrition |
| JEL: | O1 I1 M5 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10083&r=cse |
| By: | Eriksen, Tine Louise Mundbjerg (Aarhus University); Hogh, Annie (University of Copenhagen); Hansen, Åse Marie (University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | Bullying in workplaces is a problem thought to harm individual productivity. This paper investigates whether being exposed to bullying in the workplace increases long-term sickness absence. We analyze employees from a selection of workplaces from The Bullying Cohort Study conducted in Denmark in 2006. The Negative Acts Questionnaire-Revised was used to avoid bias related to self-labeling as being bullied. We account for important confounders, such as historical information on sickness absence and mental health, obtained through rich registry data. Our results show that gender does not significantly explain exposure to bullying and that exposure to bullying is associated with negative immediate self-reported health for both genders. We also find, however, that only bullied females have higher, persistent increases in long-term sickness absence and adverse long-term health. This suggests that men and women have different coping strategies. We investigate plausible explanations for this and find that the differences cannot be explained by, for example, turnover or lack of employment. Although insignificant, our results nonetheless indicate that men are twice as likely to leave the labor force immediately after exposure to bullying. |
| Keywords: | working environment, harassment, absenteeism, health, gender |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J81 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10101&r=cse |
| By: | Emilie Orliange (MSHS - Unite mixte de service maison des sciences de l'homme et de la société de Poitiers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Poitiers, CEREGE - CEntre de REcherche en GEstion - Université de Poitiers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Poitiers); Valérie-Inès De La Ville (MSHS - Unite mixte de service maison des sciences de l'homme et de la société de Poitiers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Poitiers, CEREGE - CEntre de REcherche en GEstion - Université de Poitiers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Poitiers); Marie-Line Huc (MSHS - Unite mixte de service maison des sciences de l'homme et de la société de Poitiers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Poitiers) |
| Abstract: | La recherche-action longitudinale, initiée en septembre 2013, a pour but d’évaluer les bénéfices d’un programme d’éducation alimentaire des collégiens (de la 5° à la 3°) aux « arts de faire culinaires » à l’interface entre l’école, la famille et l’univers marchand. La recherche accompagne le programme mis en place sur plusieurs années dans 2 collèges d’Angoulême : le collège Marguerite de Valois (depuis septembre 2013) et le collège Michelle Pallet (depuis septembre 2015). De la 6ème à la 3ème, ce projet organise différents ateliers complémentaires à propos de l’alimentation : cours de cuisine, modules d’éveil sensoriel issus des classes du goût, éducation aux médias et au développement durable, sensibilisation aux arts de la table et au gaspillage alimentaire, découverte des métiers de bouche, éducation à une alimentation saine, durable et raisonnée, découverte des cultures alimentaires… L’objectif est de contribuer à ce que les adolescents acquièrent une plus grande conscience des enjeux liés à la consommation de produits alimentaires. Un autre volet de la recherche inclut la validation scientifique du guide méthodologique produit par le groupe-projet pour assurer la reproductibilité de cette initiative dans d’autres collèges français. Le projet regroupe une série d’acteurs complémentaires : Le Club Experts Nutrition et Alimentation, l’équipe pédagogique des collèges Marguerite de Valois et Michelle Pallet, le Centre Européen des Produits de l’Enfant de l’Université de Poitiers, L’IREPS (Instance régionale d’éducation prévention santé), les centres sociaux de quartiers. Les actions du programme sont financièrement soutenues par : le Conseil Départemental de la Charente, la région Poitou-Charentes, le Fond Européen AgriMer (fruit pour la récré) et la Fondation de France. Le projet est inscrit dans les actions innovantes du Rectorat de Poitiers et soutenu par l’Education Nationale ainsi que par le Ministère de l’Agriculture, de l’Agro-alimentaire et de la Forêt. La recherche est financée par : La DRAAF (Direction Régionale de l’Alimentation, de l’Agriculture et de la Forêt) Poitou-Charentes, le Fonds Français pour l’Alimentation et la Santé, le PNA (Programme National pour l’Alimentation) et l’Institut Olga Triballat. |
| Keywords: | Recherche-intervention longitudinale,Socialisation par l'alimentation,Adolescents,Transferabilité,Univers marchand,Pratique des "Arts de Faire" Culinaires,Comportement du jeune consommateur,Dispositif développemental de captation ludique des adonaissants,Montée en compétence,Autonomisation |
| Date: | 2016–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01308300&r=cse |
| By: | Dimitris Malliaropulos (Bank of Greece and University of Piraeus); Petros M. Migiakis (Bank of Greece and University of Piraeus) |
| Abstract: | How strong has been the effect of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on systemic risk in sovereign bond markets? Was the increase in credit spreads relative to triple-A benchmarks which followed the GFC the result of higher sovereign credit risk or the result of a re-pricing that reflected changes in broader market conditions and risk aversion? In this paper we examine these issues by specifying a sovereign credit yield curve which relates sovereign yield spreads to credit ratings and global variables. The model allows for time-variation in both the price of credit risk and the average spread across all rating categories, which proxies the effect of global risk factors on yield spreads. We use daily data of ten-year bond yields and ratings from a large database of 64 countries, covering both emerging markets and developed economies, for the period from 1/1/2000 to 1/1/2015. Our estimates suggest that sovereign risk premia increased significantly after the GFC with most of the increase due to a re-pricing of broader market risks rather than an increase in the quantity or price of sovereign risk per se. This increase in global risk could be the result of a flight-to-quality from lower-rated sovereign bonds to AAA benchmark bonds. Interestingly, we find that global risk in the sovereign bond market is driven by global variables that relate to investor confidence, volatility risk, central bank liquidity and the slope of the yield curve in the US. |
| Keywords: | sovereign risk; credit yield curve; Global Financial Crisis; credit ratings. |
| JEL: | C58 G12 G17 G24 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:2010&r=cse |
| By: | José Soares da Fonseca (Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra) |
| Abstract: | The research presented in this article estimated three asset pricing models, applied to sixteen European stock markets, to create efficient portfolios, based on the solution originally proposed by Elton, Gruber and Padberg (1976, 1978). This solution overcomes the need to solve a mathematical programming problem, as required by the mean-variance approach proposed by Markowitz (1952). The innovative approach proposed consists of extending the original method of Elton et al. to include the market timing and lower partial moments. In the empirical analysis of this article three asset pricing models were estimated and their parameters and risk measures were used to create beta-based efficient portfolios. The first asset pricing model is the standard CAPM, the second model adds an additional variable which represents market timing, and the third model includes two additional variables, one representing market timing, and the other representing lower partial moments. The asset pricing models were estimated by rolling regressions applied to moving samples. Three types of efficient portfolios were constructed and evaluated on a daily basis, each type being related to one of the three asset pricing models estimated. The efficient portfolios were recomposed daily as they benefited from the new parameters that were given by the most recent rolling estimation. The results showed that the beta-based efficient portfolios dominated the equally weighted portfolios and the investment in the European index, which served as benchmarks. |
| Keywords: | Efficient portfolios, Lower partial moments, Market timing, Time-varying betas. JEL Classification: F36, G11, G15. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2016-12.&r=cse |
| By: | Jan Priewe |
| Abstract: | Foreign exchange markets are the biggest financial markets on the globe, the dollar-euro market is the biggest among them with a daily turnover of $1.3 trillion. This market is the interface of the euro bloc and the dollar bloc which use mainly one of the major currencies, comprising 45-60% and 25% of global GDP, respectively. Hence the dollar-euro exchange rate is the prime exchange rate among thousands of others. After reviewing the exchange rate performance and the dismal state of exchange rate theories, the paper analyses in the first part the following questions: what determines the large and long swings and the turning points of the exchange rate super-cycle; what is the role of "fundamentals" and what are the non-fundamental determinants of the dollar-euro exchange rate. In the second part we analyse the consequences of high volatility and frequent misalignment of the dollar-euro rate: in what way is this exchange rate relevant for the real economies, as both the majority of the euro area's and the trade of the U.S. is denominated in own currency; what are the interdependencies between the dollar-euro exchange rate and internal imbalances in the current accounts of the euro area; has the relationship between exchange rates and trade changed, due to reduced elasticities; what is the impact of dollar-euro exchange rate on international financial markets. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:studie:49-2016&r=cse |
| By: | Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser; Mustafa, Alan |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates empirically whether or not the financial market of China is integrated with the financial market of the US. Unlike most previous studies on financial market integration, we allow for asymmetry in our investigation. The underlying data is transformed into cumulative partial sums by using a software component that is created by authors in Octave language. By estimating the asymmetric generalized impulse response functions we find that the financial markets of these two biggest economies in the world are linked interactively when the markets are falling. However, no significant impact between the two underlying markets are found when markets are rising. These results support the view that allowing for asymmetry in financial markets is important and it has crucial repercussions for both policy makers and investors. |
| Keywords: | Financial Market Integration, Asymmetry, Impulses, US, China, Octave |
| JEL: | C3 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72733&r=cse |
| By: | Belke, Ansgar; Gros, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Adjustment to an external imbalance is more diffi cult within a monetary union if wages are sticky. Periods of high unemployment are usually necessary to achieve the required real depreciation (internal devaluation). Gradual adjustment is usually recommended to distribute the output and employment cost over time. This paper takes into account that gradual adjustment also has a cost in terms of higher current account defi cits and thus a higher debt, and ultimately higher debt service costs. We calculate the optimal path/speed of price and wage adjustment in terms of deeper parameters like the slope of the Phillips curve, the degree of openness, etc. Gradual adjustment is not always optimal. |
| Abstract: | Anpassung an ein externes Ungleichgewicht ist innerhalb einer Währungsunion schwieriger, wenn die Löhne träge sind. Perioden hoher Arbeitslosigkeit sind in der Regel notwendig, um die erforderliche reale Abwertung (interne Abwertung) zu erreichen. Graduelle Adjustierung wird in der Regel empfohlen, um die Produktions- und Beschäftigungskosten über die Zeit zu verteilen. Dieses Paper berücksichtigt, dass die schrittweise Adjustierung auch Kosten in Form von höheren Leistungsbilanzdefiziten mit sich bringt und damit eine höhere Verschuldung und letztlich höhere Schuldendienstkosten hat. Wir berechnen den optimalen Weg bzw. die optimale Geschwindigkeit der Preis- und Lohnanpassung in Bezug auf die zugrunde liegenden Parameter, wie die Steigung der Phillips-Kurve, den Grad der Offenheit, usw. Graduelle Adjustierung ist nicht immer optimal. |
| Keywords: | speed of adjustment,price and wage adjustment,internal devaluation,policy complementarities |
| JEL: | F41 F45 P11 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:623&r=cse |
| By: | Cakir, Murat |
| Abstract: | During the last half-decade, the 2007 global crisis has kept all interested parties busy and urged them to focus on the causes of this crisis, to find solutions for recovery, and to contrive to be capable of projecting potential ones that may happen in the future. As one of the precautionary tool-sets devised for the authorities among others the classical macro-prudential and systemic risk models focused on banks and sought for the systemically important ones (SIFIs). It had been argued by a handful of interest groups that this sort of approach to risk embedded in a network structure was both unbalanced condoning potential plausible sources of risk to monitor passively as well as take policy actions pro-actively and further was undue in remedying possible causes if, when and where seen indispensable. Therefore, a more macro stance towards the conventional macro-prudential paradigms considering micro elements of the system was seen as vital. This work attempts to draw an extended framework that would span all potential incumbents forming part of the Circular Flow of Income (CFI), which is treated as a network or a bijective counter-party mapping of incumbent groups of different sources that each have claims against the funds granted to other groups or to members of the same group. Availability of data would be a focal point for the operability of a model as such. Though the significance of data availability being a central question is inarguable and the necessary data is really scarce, that doesn’t abstain one from devising usable designs, nor does it from standing in a proper position in such design efforts for public welfare. In reality, the data is available for a different variety of incumbent groups at different levels of congruity, but unfortunately sparsely distributed among different collectors and users . Still, there is data that can be used for empirical analysis purposes but needs a considerable extent of effort to collect and make use of. We propose a simple methodology on how to use the data on the extended framework, -tipping on another study- a data procural system shortly, and provide an in-exhaustive list of potential features that can be used for our extended model at the end. There will be no issue of identification neither of risks from a particular source, nor of policy recommendations since they are a subject of another work and out of the scope of the current one. Still, one should bear in mind that though this other stream of work of ours employs any kind of analytical methodology that’d fit a particular context a general balance sheet, and the valuation of sub-portfolios at risk are the main architectural frame that shapes our analytical basis . |
| Keywords: | Systemic Risk, Macro Prudential Policy, Circular Flow of Income |
| JEL: | E58 G28 |
| Date: | 2016–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72776&r=cse |
| By: | Marion Dupoux |
| Abstract: | Land use change (LUC) is the second human-induced source of greenhouse gases (GHG). This paper warns about the LUC time-accounting failure in internalizing GHG impacts in economic appraisal (within policies). This emerges from (i) relative carbon prices commonly following the Hotelling rule as if climate change were regarded as an exhaustible resource problem and (ii) a uniform annualization (i.e. constant flows over time) of LUC impacts supported by most energy policies. First, carbon prices time evolution should account for the climate change framework specificities (natural carbon absorption, uncertainty), which makes a departure from the Hotelling rule necessary. Second, there is a carbon dynamic after land conversion: GHG impact flows are strictly decreasing over time. With a theoretical framework, I show that the employment of the uniform annualization, within a benefit-cost analysis, enhances both the discounting overwhelming effect and the carbon price increase, whatever the type of impact (emissions or sequestrations). It results in skewed values of LUC-related projects as long as relative carbon prices deviate from the Hotelling rule. I apply this framework to global warming impacts of bioethanol in France and quantify this bias. In particular, carbon profitability payback periods under the uniform approach do not reflect the LUC effective carbon investment. This potentially modifies the conclusions regarding a project’s achievement of imposed environmental criteria. |
| Keywords: | Benefit-cost analysis, Discounting, Global warming, Land use change, Relative carbon price |
| JEL: | D61 H43 Q15 Q16 Q48 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apu:wpaper:2016/02&r=cse |
| By: | Ira N. Gang (Rutgers University); Ksennia Gatskova (IOS-Regensburg); John Landon Lane (Rutgers University); Myeong-Su Yun (Inha University) |
| Abstract: | We examine vulnerability to poverty in Tajikistan during the global financial crisis, focusing on the roles played by international migration and remittances, using a formal, practical, and easily decomposable vulnerability measure. Our strategy is to estimate a Markov transition probability matrix with the aim of identifying the vulnerability of households to poverty. Importantly, by introducing the index of vulnerability as the weighted probability of a household falling into poverty over a given time horizon, we can use the estimated dynamics to assess the short, medium and long-run vulnerability. We find that during the “recession transition” almost all households were vulnerable to poverty while almost none were during the “recovery period”. Overall, urban households, more educated households and households receiving remittances from international labor migrants were less vulnerable to poverty. While households with a current or very recent migrant did not have a significantly lower measured vulnerability to poverty, those households receiving remittances from migrants had a lower vulnerability to poverty. Our findings stress that the international labor migration from Tajikistan may not be considered as a reliable means of welfare security for the households because external economic shocks and internal political decisions may negatively affect Russian economy and lead to a reduction of remittances flow to Tajikistan. |
| Keywords: | mobility measurement, vulnerability, poverty, inequality, Tajikistan |
| JEL: | J60 D63 I32 |
| Date: | 2016–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rut:rutres:201608&r=cse |
| By: | Redding, Stephen J.; Weinstein, David E. |
| Abstract: | The measurement of price changes, economic welfare, and demand parameters is currently based on three disjoint approaches: macroeconomic models derived from time-invariant utility functions, microeconomic estimation based on time-varying utility (demand) systems, and actual price and real output data constructed using formulas that differ from either approach. The inconsistencies are so deep that the same assumptions that form the foundation of demand-system estimation can be used to prove that standard price indexes are incorrect, and the assumptions underlying standard exact and superlative price indexes invalidate demand-system estimation. In other words, we show that extant micro and macro welfare estimates are biased and inconsistent with each other as well as the data. We develop a unified approach to demand and price measurement that exactly rationalizes observed micro data on prices and expenditure shares while permitting exact aggregation and meaningful macro comparisons of welfare over time. We show that all standard price indexes are special cases of our approach for particular values of the elasticity of substitution, constant preferences for each good, and a constant set of goods. In contrast to these standard index numbers, our approach allows us to compute changes in the cost of living that take into account both changes in the preferences for individual goods and the entry and exit of goods over time. Using barcode data for the U.S. consumer goods industry, we show that allowing for the entry and exit of products, changing preferences for individual goods, and a value for the elasticity of substitution estimated from the data yields substantially different conclusions for changes in the cost of living from standard index numbers. |
| Keywords: | consumer valuation bias; elasticity of substitution; new goods; price index; welfare |
| JEL: | D11 D12 E01 E31 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11421&r=cse |
| By: | Krueger, Dirk; Mitman, Kurt; Perri, Fabrizio |
| Abstract: | How big are the welfare losses from severe economic downturns, such as the U.S. Great Recession? How are those losses distributed across the population? In this paper we answer these questions using a canonical business cycle model featuring household income and wealth heterogeneity that matches micro data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). We document how these losses are distributed across households and how they are affected by social insurance policies. We find that the welfare cost of losing one's job in a severe recession ranges from 2% of lifetime consumption for the wealthiest households to 5% for low-wealth households. The cost increases to approximately 8% for low-wealth households if unemployment insurance benefits are cut from 50% to 10%. The fact that welfare losses fall with wealth, and that in our model (as in the data) a large fraction of households has very low wealth, implies that the impact of a severe recession, once aggregated across all households, is very significant (2.2% of lifetime consumption). We finally show that a more generous unemployment insurance system unequivocally helps low-wealth job losers, but hurts households that keep their job, even in a version of the model in which output is partly demand determined, and therefore unemployment insurance stabilizes aggregate demand and output. |
| Keywords: | great recession; Social Insurance; Wealth Inequality |
| JEL: | E21 E32 J65 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11413&r=cse |
| By: | Tranchant, Jean-Pierre |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically revisits the relationships between decentralisation, regional autonomy and ethnic civil war. On the one hand, decentralisation and autonomy may allow ethnic minorities to directly control their own affairs or to better hold regional rulers to account. On the other hand, decentralisation and autonomy in multi-ethnic countries may foster centrifugal forces and bestow legitimacy and resources to secessionist groups. Current evidence from cross-country or cross-ethnic group econometric studies are limited by crude operationalisation of decentralisation and often questionable treatment of endogeneity. The paper makes three key contributions: i) it builds a new dataset bringing together up-to-date and cutting edge data on decentralisation and autonomy (RAI) and ethnic group violence (EPR), thereby providing new insights on groups exposure to decentralisation in 81 countries between 1945 and 2010; ii) it tests how various facets of decentralisation (autonomy, self-rule, shared-rule, political decentralisation) relate to ethnic violence; and iii) it exploits dynamic panel data techniques, namely the difference-GMM estimator, to account for reverse causality and unobserved heterogeneity biases. The validity and strength of the estimator are explicitly established. I find that regional autonomy - even when decentralisation is otherwise limited - strongly reduces the incidence of ethnic civil wars. The conflict-mitigating effect of autonomy is maximal when regional governments command substantial powers in terms of policy-setting and when political decentralisation is strong. Political decentralisation is also found to be a strong and consistent factor of ethnic peace in the absence of regional autonomy. In contrast, granting regional governments wide-ranging authorities on policy and fiscal matters does not reduce the incidence of large-scale ethnic conflict on its own. Granting autonomy to regional governments which have no substantial powers of self-rule is weakly correlated with higher chances of onset of civil wars but a combination of autonomy and above-median self-rule and political decentralisation strongly reduces such a likelihood. Regional autonomy appears to be the only effective strategy to stop existing civil wars. |
| Keywords: | Decentralisation, autonomy, civil wars, dynamic panel data analysis, ethnicity |
| JEL: | D74 F5 O1 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72750&r=cse |
| By: | Ali Enami (Department of Economics, Tulane University); Nora Lustig (Department of Economics, Tulane University); Alireza Taqdiri (Department of Economics, University of Akron) |
| Abstract: | Using the Iranian Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HEIS) for 2011/12, we apply the marginal contribution approach to determine the impact and effectiveness of each fiscal intervention, and the fiscal system as a whole, on inequality and poverty. Net direct and indirect taxes combined reduce the Gini coefficient by 0.0644 points and the headcount ratio by 61 percent. When the monetized value of in-kind benefits in education and health are included, the reduction in inequality is 0.0919 Gini points. Based on the magnitudes of the marginal contributions, we find that the main driver of these reductions is the Targeted Subsidy Program, a universal cash transfer program implemented in 2010 to compensate individuals for the elimination of energy subsidies. The main reduction in poverty occurs in rural areas, where the headcount ratio declines from 44 to 23 percent. In urban areas, fiscally-induced poverty reduction is more modest: the headcount ratio declines from 13 to 5 percent. Taxes and transfers are similar in their effectiveness in achieving their inequality-reducing potential. By achieving 40 percent of its inequality-reducing potential, the income tax is the most effective intervention on the revenue side. On the spending side, Social Assistance transfers are the most effective and they achieve 45 percent of their potential. Taxes are especially effective in raising revenue without causing poverty to rise, indicating that the poor are largely spared from being taxed. In contrast, since the bulk of transfers are not targeted to the poor, they are not very effective: the most effective ones achieve 20 percent of their poverty reduction potential. The effectiveness of the Targeted Subsidy Program could be improved by eliminating the transfer to top deciles and re-allocating the freed funds to the poor. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, poverty, marginal contribution, CEQ framework, policy simulation. |
| JEL: | D31 H22 I38 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:1605&r=cse |
| By: | Leo de Haan; Jan Willem van den End |
| Abstract: | We investigate the information content of financial variables as signalling devices of two abnormal inflationary regimes: (1) very low inflation or deflation, and (2) high inflation. Specifically, we determine the information content of equity and house prices, private credit volumes, and sovereign and corporate bond yields, for 11 advanced economies over the past three decades, using both the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and a logit model. The outcomes show that high asset prices more often signal high inflation than low inflation/deflation. However, in some countries, high asset prices and low bond yields are a significant indicator of low inflation or deflation as well. The transmission time of financial developments to inflation can be quite long (up to 8 quarters). For monetary policy, these findings imply that stimulating asset prices through Quantitative Easing (QE) can effectively influence inflation, but that the effects are quite uncertain, both in timing and direction. |
| Keywords: | Quantitative Easing; Inflation; Financial markets |
| JEL: | E31 E44 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:516&r=cse |
| By: | Mauro Pisu |
| Abstract: | Costa Rica's transport infrastructure sector has long suffered from insufficient and ineffective investment and maintenance spending, resulting in a congested and poor-quality transport network. Public spending has been below the OECD average and private sector participation is limited. The road network is extensive but of poor quality, railways are in disrepair and only slowly being reactivated after having been shut down in the 1990s, seaports quality and capacity are deficient. Internal transportation overly relies on private road vehicles as the public transport system, especially railways, is inadequate. As a result, the transport sector is the major source of greenhouse emissions. Major challenges hindering the sector performance are: excessive institutional fragmentation, which reduces transparency and accountability of public sector agencies, poor strategic planning, which results in haphazard infrastructure development and poor intermodal connections, aversion to private sector participation and absence of an infrastructure-project pipeline, which discourage private investment, poor project preparation and slow project execution due to no cost benefit analyses, unclear project selection criteria and insufficient stakeholder engagement. This working paper relates to the 2016 OECD Economic Survey of Costa Rica (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-costa-rica.htm). Une vue globale de l'infrastructure de transport du Costa Rica Le secteur des infrastructures de transport du Costa Rica a longtemps souffert des insuffisantes et inefficaces dépenses d'investissement et de maintenance, qui ont déterminé un réseau de transport congestionné et de mauvaise qualité. Les dépenses publiques ont été en dessous de la moyenne de l'OCDE et la participation du secteur privé est limitée. Le réseau routier est vaste, mais de mauvaise qualité, les chemins de fer sont en mauvais état et sont en train d'être lentement réactivé, après avoir été arrêté dans les années 1990, la qualité et capacité des ports maritimes sont insuffisant. Le transport interne repose excessivement sur les véhicules routiers privés puisque le système de transport public, en particulier les chemins de fer, est peu développé. Par conséquent, le secteur des transports est la principale source des émissions à effet de serre. Les défis majeurs qui entravent la performance du secteur sont: la excessive fragmentation institutionnelle, ce qui réduit la transparence et la responsabilité des organismes publics, une mauvaise planification stratégique, qui se traduit par un développement désordonné des infrastructures et des liaisons intermodales insuffisantes, l'aversion à la participation du secteur privé et l'absence d'une liste des projets d'infrastructure, qui découragent l'investissement privé, la faible qualité de la préparation des projets et leur exécutions lent en raison de la manque d'analyses coûts avantages, des critères flous pour la sélection des projets et engagement des parties prenantes insuffisantes. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de Costa Rica 2016 (www.oecd.org/fr/eco/etudes/etude-econom ique-costa-rica.htm). |
| Keywords: | economic development, transport, PPPs, investment, infrastructure, PPPs, investissement, développement économique, transport, infrastructure |
| JEL: | H54 L91 L98 O18 Q58 R28 R40 |
| Date: | 2016–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1323-en&r=cse |
| By: | Mamedov Arseny (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Fomina Elena (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Belev Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, the share of subnational budget expenditure of the Russian Federation consolidated budget dropped considerably from 39.7% in 2014 to 32.1% in 2015 (excluding expenditure for the Crimean Federal Okrug). The share of tax revenues shrank to a lesser extent, from 32.6% to 28.6%, during the same period. The decline in the share of subnational budget expenditure of the total volume of Russia’s consolidated budget expenditure is explained largely by faster-than-normal growth of the federal budget expenditure (by 5.6% in nominal terms). The federal budget expenditure increased first of all for ‘General National Issues’ (by 18.6%), ‘National Defense’ (by 28.3%), ‘Housing and Utilities’ (by 20.5%), ‘Social Policy’ (by 23.5%), ‘Municipal and Public Debt Servicing’ (by 24.8%). Subnational budget expenditure increased in the period under review by 1.4% (excluding expenditure for the Crimean Federal Okrug). |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, fiscal relations, subnational finance, consolidated budget, debt policy |
| JEL: | H77 H76 H74 H71 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-259&r=cse |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | Asia and the Pacific has achieved rapid economic expansion in the recent years and has become a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With more than half of the world’s population and high rates of economic growth, the region is especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change and therefore must play its part in cutting GHG emissions. The Paris Agreement adopted last December 2015 at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change COP21 aims to restrict global warming to well below 2o C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to reach 1.5oC - which is especially relevant to Asia and the Pacific region given its vulnerability. This knowledge product highlights how robust policies on emissions trading systems (ETS) can be important tools in reducing GHG emissions in a cost-effective manner, as well as supporting the mobilization of finance together with deployment of innovative technologies. There are currently 17 ETSs in place in four continents and account for nearly 40% of global gross domestic product. In Asia and the Pacific region, there are 11 systems operating, with more being planned. The growing wealth of experience on ETSs can be valuable to support DMCs that are planning and designing new systems of their own. This knowledge product summarizes some of the most significant learning experiences to date and discusses some of the solutions to alleviate challenges that have been faced. It also examines the possibilities for future linked carbon markets in the region. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing, carbon pricing instruments, emissions, carbon emissions, emissions trading, emissions trading systems, linking emissions trading systems, greenhouse gas, carbon trading, climate change, mitigation, renewable energy policy, renewable energy |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt167931-2&r=cse |
| By: | de Sá, Rodrigo; Savino Portugal, Marcelo |
| Abstract: | Whether central banks place the same weights on positive and negative deviations of inflation and of the output gap from their respective targets is an interesting question regarding monetary policy. The literature has sought to address this issue using a specific asymmetric function, the so-called Linex loss function. However, is the Linex an actually asymmetric specification? In an attempt to answer this question, we applied the sieve estimation method, a fully nonparametric approach, in which the result could be any proper loss function. This way, our results could corroborate the quadratic or Linex loss functions used in the literature or suggest an entirely new function. We applied the sieve estimation method to the United States and to Brazil, an emergent country which has consistently followed an inflation targeting regime. The economy was modeled with forward-looking agents and central bank commitment. Our results indicate that the FED was more concerned with inflation rates below the target, but no asymmetry was found in the inflation–output process in the Volcker–Greenspan period. As to Brazil, we found asymmetries in output gaps from 2004 onwards, when the Brazilian Central Bank was more concerned with positive output gaps; but we did not find any statistically significant asymmetries in inflation. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Central bank's preference; Asymmetric preferences; Sieve estimators |
| JEL: | C14 E52 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72746&r=cse |
| By: | Isabel Teichmann |
| Abstract: | It is heavily discussed whether trade liberalization is good or bad for the poor in a given (developing) country. The answer depends on a wide variety of factors, such as the type of trade barrier removed, the economic and institutional environment in the country, and the characteristics of the poor in that country (Winters 2002; Winters et al. 2004). In addition, the results can also be driven by the specific method used to measure the impact of the trade-policy reform on poverty. For an informed discussion, it is, therefore, important to understand the corresponding empirical methods at hand.Most generally, empirical studies on trade impacts can be divided into ex-post and ex-ante analyses. Whereas ex-post studies focus on the effects of trade policies that have already been implemented, ex-ante analyses simulate the effects of potential future (and actual) trade policies (Piermartini and Teh 2005). In other words, ex-post studies have both pre- and post-reform data at their disposal, while ex-ante studies rely exclusively on pre-liberalization data. Ex-post analyses have the advantage of being grounded on real-world observations; however, their difficulty lies in applying appropriate statistical methods to separate the impact of a given trade-policy reform from any other shock affecting the economy in the observation period (Hertel and Reimer 2005; Piermartini and Teh 2005). This identification problem is absent in ex-ante studies, conducting counterfactual analyses, as they allow to explicitly and exclusively simulate the trade-policy shock (Hertel and Reimer 2005). However, simulation studies encounter yet other challenges, namely to verify the assumptions concerning the model specification (e.g., parameters and functional forms) and, thus, to ensure the quality of the results (Piermartini and Teh 2005; Winters et al. 2004). Their strength, in turn, is to reveal possible orders of magnitude of a policy impact, to identify relative winners and losers, and to give insights into the quantitative importance of the mechanisms behind the effects of a given trade-policy reform on poverty (Winters 2003; Winters et al. 2004; Bourguignon et al. 1991).While examples of ex-post methods to analyze the effects of trade liberalization on poverty can be found in Winters et al. (2004), this Roundup gives an overview of some basic ex-ante methods available to quantify and evaluate the impact of a trade-policy reform – or, more generally, a macro-economic shock – on the distribution of household income for poverty (and inequality) analysis, i.e. on the micro-economic level. The methods considered here center all around so-called computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. On the one hand, they include the standard CGE approach with (one or) several representative households; on the other hand, they cover macro-micro simulations, subdivided into the top-down approach, the top-down/bottom-up approach, and the integrated approach. For each method, the Roundup provides a brief description, some applications, and a critical assessment. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwrup:100en&r=cse |
| By: | Raza, Werner; Taylor, Lance; Tröster, Bernhard; von Arnim, Rudi |
| Abstract: | In recent years, a number of studies have been put forth to assess the potential economic effects of the EU-US trade agreement - the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Most studies report gains for the TTIP-member states. However, the commonly applied CGE models contain questionable assumptions such as full employment. In this report, we present a structuralist CGE-model for the assessment of TTIP with fundamentally different key assumptions with regard to the determination of output, income and employment. These distinct closures are applied within the standard trade liberalization setting including the reduction of tariffs and non-tariff barriers. Importantly, the model delivers results with regard to (i) macroeconomic effects including employment and wages, (ii) sectoral (20 Sectors) and (iii) regional (11 countries/regions) effects. Even though small but positive income effects are reported, the diverging results among TTIP-members, negative effects for real wages for low skill labor and the rest of the world, in particular developing countries, should be highlighted. An extensive sensitivity analysis confirms potential risks associated with TTIP. |
| Abstract: | Seit März 2013 verhandeln EU und USA das Transatlantische Handels- & Investitionspartnerschaftsabkommen (TTIP). Aufgrund ihrer wirtschaftlichen Bedeutung und der weitreichenden Verhandlungsagenda stellt dies die bedeutendste handelspolitische Initiative seit dem Start der WTO Doha Runde im November 2001 dar. Die entscheidende Frage für politische Entscheidungsträger lautet dabei: Cui bono? Genauer: Was sind die zu erwartenden Auswirkungen des Abkommens auf Wirtschaftswachstum, Beschäftigung und Einkommensverteilung? In den letzten Jahrzehnten sind sog. CGE Modelle zum Standardinstrument geworden, um die Effekte der Handelsliberalisierung abzuschätzen. Diese Modelle wurden dafür kritisiert, dass sie erstens meist eine konstante Beschäftigung, ein konstantes Defizit der öffentlichen Haushalte und der Leistungsbilanz annehmen, und dass sie zweitens wichtige strukturelle Eigenheiten von Ländern nicht berücksichtigen. Damit bleiben zentrale Fragen außerhalb des analytischen Blicks. Das gegenständliche Papier präsentiert ein strukturalistisches CGE Modell, das (a) die Auswirkungen von Handelsliberalisierung auf die Beschäftigung, die Faktoreinkommen, die öffentlichen Haushalte und die Leistungsbilanz untersucht, (b) die strukturellen Eigenheiten von Volkswirtschaften berücksichtigt, und (c) flexibel auf verschiedene Szenarien und Handelsabkommen angewendet werden kann. Das Modell wird sodann für die Abschätzung der makroökonomischen Auswirkungen der laufenden EU-USA Verhandlungen (TTIP) verwendet. Damit soll ein Beitrag zur wissenschaftlichen und wirtschaftspolitischen Diskussion zu den Auswirkungen von Handelsliberalisierung auf Wachstum und Verteilung geleistet werden. Das hier vorgestellte Modell ist ein Multi-Sektor, Multi-Regionen Modell mit 20 Wirtschaftssektoren und 11 Regionen bzw. Ländern, und zwei Typen von Arbeitskräften (hochqualifiziert/ niedrig-qualifiziert). Die empirische Datengrundlage wird durch eine Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) auf Basis von Daten des Global Trade Analysis Projekts (GTAP) bereitgestellt. Mit dem Modell können die Auswirkungen von Veränderungen tarifärer wie nicht-tarifärer Handelshemmnisse (NTB) auf die abgebildeten Volkswirtschaften untersucht werden. Einschränkend muss darauf hingewiesen werden, dass die Effekte der Veränderung von NTB nur unvollständig dargestellt werden können. Insbesondere ist eine Bewertung des sozialen Nutzens bzw. der sozialen Kosten von NTB wie z.B. Gesundheitsoder Verbraucherschutzbestimmungen nicht möglich. Stattdessen werden nur die Kostenersparnisse aus dem Wegfall bzw. der Angleichung von NTM für die Privatwirtschaft berücksichtigt. Ebenso wenig können wie bei den meisten anderen Studien die Effekte vieler anderer Elemente der neuen Generation von Freihandelsabkommen abgebildet werden. Dazu gehören unter anderem die Effekte von Investitionsliberalisierung, den Schutz geistiger Eigentumsrechte, oder andere Effekte, wie zum Beispiel Umwelteffekte oder Auswirkungen auf die Menschenrechte. Daher berücksichtigt unser Modell nur einen Teil der Effekte von Handelsabkommen und enthält eine Tendenz zur Überschätzung der positiven wirtschaftlichen Effekte von Handelsliberalisierung. [...] |
| Keywords: | trade impact assessment,non-tariff measures,trade policy |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:oefsew:57&r=cse |