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on China |
| By: | Shuyao Wu; Delong Li; Zhonghao Zhang |
| Abstract: | Urban parks play a vital role in delivering various essential ecosystem services that significantly contribute to the well-being of urban populations. However, there is quite a limited understanding of how people value these ecosystem services differently. Here, we investigated the relationships among nine ecosystem service demands in urban parks across China using a large-scale survey with 20, 075 responses and a point-allotment experiment. We found particularly high preferences for air purification and recreation services at the expense of other services among urban residents in China. These preferences were further reflected in three distinct demand bundles: air purification-dominated, recreation-dominated, and balanced demands. Each bundle delineated a typical group of people with different representative characteristics. Socio-economic and environmental factors, such as environmental interest and vegetation coverage, were found to significantly influence the trade-off intensity among service demands. These results underscore the necessity for tailored urban park designs that address diverse service demands with the aim of enhancing the quality of urban life in China and beyond sustainably. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.11442 |
| By: | Ding Chen; Simon Deakin |
| Abstract: | In this paper, through a case study focusing on the evolution of China’s insolvency law, we test the ‘transplant effect’ hypothesis, in particular the claim that transplanted laws can only work when there is local or ‘endogenous’ demand for them in the ‘host’ or ‘receiving’ state. We also test claims made for a ‘co-evolutionary’ understanding of the law-economy relationship in the context of China’s development. In addition to documentary sources, this paper draws on interviews we carried out in Wenzhou in September 2017 and December 2018. Our study shows that aspects of the transplant and coevolution hypotheses are in need of some modification if they are to explain China’s legal and economic development. The embedding of legal transplants is less a response to the demands of business actors, and more the result of proactive interventions on the part of judges and officials. The study also suggests that formal rules can be operationalised at the level of practice once they are seen as legitimate. While this is a process which takes time, a period of crisis provides opportunities for the learning process around the use of formal rules and procedures to be accelerated. |
| Keywords: | Law and economic growth, transplant effect, co-evolution, Wenzhou curb crisis, China’s insolvency law, judicial innovation |
| JEL: | G28 K12 K22 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp548 |
| By: | Antonin Bergeaud; Ruveyda Nur Gozen; John Van Reenen |
| Abstract: | We introduce a methodology to measure cross-country trends in innovation capability - “technological trajectories” and implement this on a new rich dataset covering patents between 1836 and 2016 across multiple countries. Intuitively, trajectories are revealed by a country’s sustained increases in patenting across multiple patent offices. We first describe the data patterns, showing the relative decline of the UK, and the rise first of the US and Germany, and then later of Japan and China. We then econometrically estimate trajectories on (i) the post-1902 period for France, Germany, Japan, the UK and US, and (ii) the post-1960 period for a wider sample of 40 countries. Our trajectories are strongly positively correlated with Total Factor Productivity growth, and also (but less strongly) associated with the growth of labour productivity and capital intensity. We show that future trajectories are predicted by a country’s initial levels of R&D, education and defence spending, classic drivers of innovation in modern growth theory. |
| JEL: | O31 O33 O34 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34760 |
| By: | Jian Chu; Raymond Fisman; Yongxiang Wang; Maoliang Ye |
| Abstract: | Audit design invokes a tradeoff between a monitor’s local knowledge and their independence from influence. We study this tradeoff in the context of a pilot program in six Chinese provinces in 2016, in which provincial governments were given control over budgeting and personnel decisions for city audits. Using a difference-in-differences framework we show that, compared to non-pilot provinces, centralization increases detection of suspicious expenditures by over 50%. These improvements occur also in cities with auditors appointed pre-2016, suggesting that stronger incentives and greater resources rather than auditor selection explain the improvements. Consistent with this interpretation, we find that financial (but not human) resources devoted to city audits increase with centralization. Further results show that centralization’s benefits are strongest in provinces that centralized audit office financing as part of the reform – particularly in poorer cities – suggesting a role for resources in improved performance. |
| JEL: | H11 H26 H71 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34776 |
| By: | Simon Deakin; Kamelia Pourkermani |
| Abstract: | We report the results of an econometric analysis of the effects of labour laws in the UK and China. For data on labour laws we draw on the 2023 update of the CBR-LRI index, part of the Cambridge Leximetric Database, which codes for labour laws around the world between 1970 and 2022. The longitudinal coverage of the CBR-LRI enables us to use time-series techniques which model dynamic changes in an economy over time. We employ impulse response function analysis to estimate the effects of labour laws on indicators of efficiency (productivity, employment and unemployment) and distribution (labour’s share of national income). We find that stronger labour laws in the UK are associated with rising employment and falling unemployment, while those in China are associated with rising productivity. We also observe positive impacts of labour laws on the labour share in both countries. Breaking down our results according to particular types of labour law, the positive employment effect we see in the UK is associated with stronger working time protections, while the positive productivity effect in China is associated with more protective laws regulating flexible forms of employment and with stronger dismissal laws. Assessing our results, we suggest that they speak to the importance of labour laws for avoiding regression, in the British case, to a low-cost, low productivity economy, and, in China’s case, for helping bridge the ‘middle income gap’ to sustainable development. More generally, our findings imply the need for adjustment to standard models of the role of labour laws in the economy and to the policy advice which they generate, to the following effect: labour laws, by disciplining capital, contribute to its more productive use. |
| Keywords: | Labour law, employment, unemployment, productivity, labour share, leximetrics, UK, China |
| JEL: | K31 J83 O57 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp547 |
| By: | Cavani, Bruno; Clayton, Christopher; Dos Santos, Amanda; Maggiori, Matteo (Stanford University); Schreger, Jesse |
| Abstract: | This paper uses microdata on U.S. mutual fund and ETF portfolios from SEC Form N- PORT to study American investment in Chinese Renminbi (RMB)–denominated bonds. We show that, even as total foreign holdings of Chinese bonds rebounded in 2024, U.S. holdings of RMB bonds fell sharply and that most of this decline reflects funds exiting RMB positions entirely. These patterns point to a shift in the composition of China’s foreign investor base away from U.S. institutional investors and illustrate how publicly available microdata can inform work on the geopolitics of international currency use. |
| Date: | 2026–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:anxmr_v1 |
| By: | Jason Lu; Dimitre Milkov |
| Abstract: | A striking feature of US-China trade tensions in mid-2025 is China’s acceleration of exports to the US ahead of new tariff increases, a phenomenon we term export frontloading. To understand how this was achieved, we develop a factor model analytical framework to characterize China’s product-level exports, across time and destinations, according to a set of latent export baskets. Applying this to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, we document the channels behind the 2024-25 episode and compare them with the 2018 US-China trade tensions. Our analysis points to broad-based adjustments across multiple dimensions in a manner not observed in 2018: (i) shipments to the US accelerated in the second half of 2024, possibly supported by the retention of intermediate inputs that facilitated a ramp-up in domestic production; (ii) from January 2025, domestic production slowed and shipments of intermediate inputs to Vietnam and other ASEAN economies accelerated, consistent with the relocation of export-oriented manufacturing following US tariffs; (iii) exporters prioritized shipments to the US through March 2025, reallocating flows away from third destinations with similar export profiles; and (iv) as shipments to the US fell sharply in April-May amid the escalation of reciprocal tariffs, the decline was offset by increased shipments to third destinations consistent with fulfilling previously deferred orders. |
| Keywords: | Export Frontloading; Trade Tariffs; Production Relocation |
| Date: | 2026–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/013 |
| By: | Krah, Kwabena; Montalva Talledo, Veronica Sonia; Tiwari, Sailesh |
| Abstract: | The East Asia and Pacific region has made remarkable progress on poverty reduction, transforming the economic lives of hundreds of millions of people. With growth prospects dimmer in a world that is increasingly polarized, the question of what it will take to convert the success in poverty reduction into a similar success in growing and nurturing the emergent middle class has become critical for the region. Providing an updated definition of middle class that is grounded in the concept of economic security, this paper presents new evidence on the size, evolution, and characteristics of the region’s middle class. The results show that around a third of the region’s population belongs to the middle class, and more than half still live in relative poverty and vulnerability. From a global perspective, the region stands out for the fastest rate of expansion of the middle class, but China accounts for a large share of this progress. Excluding China, middle-class growth in the rest of the region has stalled in recent years. A larger share of the region’s poor today live in urban areas than a decade earlier (47 percent versus 34 percent), suggesting marked progress on rural convergence. Still, urban areas continue to provide better prospects for upward mobility into the middle class (44 percent) than rural areas (22 percent). Jobs have been pivotal in driving middle-class growth in the region and future mobility prospects will continue to depend on countries being able to generate more and better-quality jobs. Improving quality of services and closing the remaining gaps across economic classes will be crucial for building human capital and ensuring upward mobility for all. This will also necessitate and reinforce the emerging middle class’s commitment to the social contract, including greater tax contributions. |
| Date: | 2026–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11301 |
| By: | Andrew Greenland; James Lake; John Lopresti |
| Abstract: | Against a backdrop of sharply rising inequality, the Tokyo Round of the GATT resulted in a 1.6 percentage point reduction in average US tariffs – larger than CUSFTA, NAFTA, and the liberalization accompanying the granting of PNTR to China. We construct a novel IV based on the so-called “Swiss formula” that governed the Tokyo Round tariff liberalization to provide evidence of its effects on imports and inequality. Instrumented tariff reductions explain approximately 20% of the rise in income inequality between non-production and production workers between 1979 and 1988. This effect is largest among women, workers in routine occupations, and workers in more technology-intensive industries, suggesting a complementarity between trade liberalization and skill-biased technological change. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F66 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34785 |
| By: | Klingebiel, Stephan; Sumner, Andrew |
| Abstract: | The global development landscape entering 2026 is shaped by deep geopolitical disruptions, significantly intensified by the return of President Trump and the acceleration of systemic rivalry, conflict and multipolar competition. Development policy now unfolds in an environment where multilateral norms are weakening, Western cohesion is fracturing and Global South actors increasingly exercise greater agency through strategies of multi-alignment. Cuts to ODA budgets across traditional donor countries, paralysis in the UN development system and US hostility towards Agenda 2030 have collectively unsettled the development architecture, prompting a proliferation of commissions and processes seeking to rethink future cooperation. We identify four issues that we think will be of high importance for global development policy in 2026 and beyond and situate these within the context outlined above. Issue I. China's transition towards high-income status and the implications for its evolving role in global development debates Economically, China is approaching graduation from the list of ODA-eligible countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) Development Assistance Committee (DAC), yet politically it continues to claim "developing country" status as part of a deliberate strategy to anchor itself within Global South coalitions. This duality provides significant diplomatic and narrative leverage. China's expanding suite of global initiatives - from the Belt and Road Initiative to the new Global Governance Initiative - gives it increasing influence over international agenda-setting, especially as some Western actors retreat from traditional development roles. OECD countries must, therefore, craft engagement strategies that can accommodate China's hybrid positioning while defending coherent standards for global responsibility-sharing. Issue II. Russia's influence in the Global South Although Russia lacks a credible development model, it wields significant spoiler power through arms provision, disinformation operations and especially nuclear energy cooperation. Rosatom's integrated nuclear packages are appealing to many African countries, creating long-term dependencies and expanding Moscow's geopolitical reach - an area largely overlooked in Western development strategies. Issue III. The rise of non-democratic governance across much of the Global South and its consequences for global governance With the majority of the population now living in electoral autocracies or closed autocracies, democratic backsliding undermines the foundations of global governance. Normative contestation, institutional fragmentation, legitimacy deficits, geopolitical bargaining and uneven provision of global public goods increasingly shape multilateral cooperation. Issue IV. How both Southern middle powers and smaller countries are adjusting to the changing environment Countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey, South Africa and the Gulf states are capitalising on systemic volatility to expand influence through multi-alignment, new coalitions and diversified cooperation instruments. For external actors, accepting multi-alignment as a stable feature will be essential for building effective, issue-based partnerships in areas such as climate, health, food systems and digital public infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | geopolitics, Trump, multipolarity, Global South, development policy, ODA, devlopment cooperation, Agenda 2030, China, Russia, global governance |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:335912 |
| By: | Irma Alonso-Alvarez (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Ekaterina Bukina (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Marina Diakonova (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Nino Khitarishvili (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Javier J. Pérez (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Pedro Piqueras (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive database of geopolitical risk (GPR) indices for 34 countries, constructed using a standardized textual analysis methodology applied to national news sources. Building on the framework introduced in Alonso-Alvarez et al. (2025), we calculate both general and bilateral GPR indices that reflect the intensity and origin of geopolitical tensions as perceived in domestic media narratives. The indices are derived from a dictionary-based approach applied to press articles accessed via the Factiva platform, with queries translated into 15 languages to ensure linguistic and cultural relevance. Bilateral indices focus on four key regions – Russia, China, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and the Western Bloc – capturing how each country perceives external geopolitical threats. The resulting high-frequency dataset is validated through statistical robustness checks and narrative analysis of index peaks. Our work contributes to the literature by offering a scalable, globally representative tool for analyzing geopolitical risk, complementing existing measurements such as the Caldara-Lacoviello GPR index and enabling new empirical applications in macroeconomics, finance and international relations. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk, geopolitical tensions, textual analysis |
| JEL: | C43 E32 F51 F52 H56 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2603e |
| By: | Jamel Saadaoui |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs a new identification method to quantify bilateral geopolitical shocks-geopolitical turning points- i.e., abrupt, unforeseen state-to-state political turning points. Geopolitical shocks are captured by the second difference of the Political Relationship Index (Δ²PRI), a monthly narrative-based index constructed from Chinese government and media coverage. Unlike conventional global geopolitical risk indicators, Δ²PRI separates sudden departures from bilateral diplomatic paths so causal estimation is possible in a comparative cross-national context. Quantile instrumental variable local projections (IV-LP) are applied in the paper to estimate the dynamic and asymmetric geopolitical shock impact on world oil prices. It is estimated that US-China relational improvements lower oil prices by 0.2% in the short run and increase them by 0.3% in the medium run, with larger effects at the distribution boundaries of oil prices. Replication from Japan-China data establishes external validity. The paper adds a replicable analysis framework to explain how political shocks for dyads with heterogeneous institutional history and strategic rivalry spill over into global economic instability. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk, oil prices, quantile local projections, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | C26 C32 F51 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-08 |