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on China |
| By: | Francois de Soyres; Ece Fisgin; Ana Maria Santacreu; Eva Van Leemput; Kevin Vega |
| Abstract: | China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 marked the beginning of one of the most consequential episodes in the history of global trade. The subsequent surge in Chinese exports–often referred to as the "China Shock"–has been widely associated with large adjustments in production patterns, labor markets, and trade balances across the global economy (Autor et al. 2016; Pierce and Schott 2016). |
| Date: | 2026–05–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:103333 |
| By: | Mikael Juselius; Wenzhe Li |
| Abstract: | We systematically investigate the relationship between China's inflation, eco nomic slack, and expectations through the lens of New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC). Extending existing research, we employ inflation expectations from Con sensus Economics over recent samples and assess the stability of the estimates. Despite China's unique and evolving institutions, NKPC estimates are stable and show significant roles for both the output gap and inflation expectations in contrast to previous findings. Incorporating open-economy variables marginally enhances the models performance. Our results suggest that the New Keynesian framework can be adopted to China without adjustments for specific institutional features. |
| Keywords: | China, inflation, New Keynesian Phillips Curve, emerging markets |
| JEL: | E31 E37 E58 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1353 |
| By: | Sjöholm, Fredrik (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how Russian imports were reoriented after the 2022 sanctions. Using annual bilateral trade data at the product level, it asks whether direct Chinese export gains to Russia were concentrated in the same product lines in which EU exports to Russia declined. It also studies rerouting through Hong Kong, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Türkiye. The results point to substantial post-2022 import reorientation in Russia. Direct Chinese export gains are larger in product lines where Russia had depended more heavily on EU suppliers before the sanctions. Including transit-linked flows strengthens this relationship and points to broader rerouting through intermediary economies in those same product lines. In sanction-relevant goods, direct Chinese gains offset only part of the EU shortfall, while intermediary-country channels account for a substantial additional share. On the EU side, product-level evidence also suggests that some of the lost Russian market was absorbed through higher exports of the same products to other non-transit destinations. The evidence is therefore consistent with partial direct substitution by China, broader rerouting through intermediary economies, and partial outward redirection by EU exporters, not full replacement of lost EU exports. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions; Trade diversion; Rerouting; Russia; China; BACI |
| JEL: | F14 F51 P33 |
| Date: | 2026–05–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1560 |
| By: | Shuhei NISHITATENO; Yasuyuki TODO |
| Abstract: | How Western donors respond to China’s expanding development finance remains contested, with competing hypotheses and limited systematic evidence. This study estimates the effect of Chinese aid on bilateral official development assistance (ODA) provided by donors in the OECD Development Assistance Committee (OECD-DAC). Using a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator on a four-dimensional panel covering 31 donors, 130 recipients, and 13 sectors from 2001 to 2019, the analysis exploits within-recipient-sector-year variation in Chinese aid shocks and incorporates an extensive set of multi-way fixed effects to address endogeneity concerns. While no average competitive response is detected across all donors, we find consistent evidence that Japan systematically increased its ODA commitments in reaction to Chinese engagement—amounting to an estimated US$ 49.2 billion, or 22% of Japan’s total ODA commitments during the study period. Japan’s competitive responses are concentrated in geographically proximate and more democratic recipients, consistent with its geopolitical and normative priorities. No comparable response is detected for other major OECD-DAC donors, including the United States, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Taken together, the results show that Japan’s behaviour illustrates how a traditional donor can strategically deploy ODA as part of a broader foreign policy and industrial strategy, while the muted responses of other donors suggest that the OECD-DAC system remains more resilient than often assumed. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26041 |
| By: | Xiaoyao, Ren; Huang, Yuchen; Xiao, Leon Y. (IT University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | Background and Aims: Blind boxes are physical gambling-like products that consumers buy to receive random prizes, often only with a small chance of obtaining a specific product they desire. These products became globally popular in 2025 and are currently not legally regulated as a form of gambling, so children can buy them. Stakeholders are concerned about potential risks, including overspending and gambling-related harm. China is the first and only country to publish dedicated blind box regulatory policy, requiring age restrictions and transparency. Children under 8 are not allowed to buy blind boxes, and minors aged between 8 and 17 must have parental consent for purchasing. The probabilities of obtaining different random prizes must be disclosed. We assessed whether these policies have been duly implemented on the physical packaging of blind boxes manufactured and sold in China. Design: We conveniently purchased a diverse range of 50 blind boxes, including both well-known brands and lesser-known products. We then analysed all information shown on the physical packaging to identify compliance-related elements. Setting: Shenzhen, China Cases: 50 physical blind boxes purchased in November 2025. Measurements: The presence of age restriction information, parental consent requirement, and probability disclosures, and the visual prominence of probability disclosures. Findings: All products (100%) stated that they are not suitable for young children under 8, but 40% failed to also highlight the parental consent requirement for older children aged between 8 and 17. Probabilities were disclosed accurately and completely by 32% of blind boxes, whilst another 48% provided rounded up but still reasonably accurate and complete disclosures, so only 20% failed to disclose sufficiently or at all. The majority (66%) of blind boxes’ disclosed probabilities reasonably visually prominently, but a minority hid relevant information on multiple sides of the packaging (12%) or within a block of descriptive text (8%), making them harder for consumers to find. Conclusions: We observed relatively high compliance with Chinese blind box regulations, in terms of age restrictions and probabilistic transparency, although further improvements are required, particularly in relation to the parental consent requirement for older children and the visual prominence of probability disclosures. |
| Date: | 2026–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:lawarc:y9mvr_v1 |
| By: | Ruopu Hu (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | We construct and estimate a small open economy DSGE model featuring a regime-switching reserve requirement (RR) ratio rule within a banking sector that has access to foreign assets. The model incorporates key financial characteristics of the Chinese economy and examines the implications of changes in the RR-ratio. Estimation results reveal that the RR-ratio follows a feedback rule with a regime-dependent coefficient on net foreign lending during two distinct phases between 2006 and 2017. The state-contingent rule is temporarily suspended during the Global Financial Crisis, but is reactivated in the post-crisis period amid recovered capital inflows. On the one hand, the RR-ratio has almost negligible real effects on output and inflation; but on the other hand, it proves effective as a macroprudential instrument by mitigating financial instability through a reduced risk of self-fulfilling bank runs by about 25%. |
| Keywords: | Reserve Requirement Ratioï¼› Macroprudential Policyï¼› Financial Stabilityï¼› Capitalï¼› Flow, Regime-switching DSGE |
| JEL: | C11 E58 F41 G18 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2609 |
| By: | Vicente Ferreira; João Pedro Ferreira; Dario Guarascio; Francesco Zezza |
| Abstract: | The return of inflation in Western economies has fueled the debate on its main drivers, bringing sector-specific shocks and supply chain bottlenecks to the forefront. Building on the seminal approach of Weber et al. (2024), this paper develops a method to assess the degree of exposure to these shocks in EU countries. Using inter-country input-output data stemming from the FIGARO database, we identify systemically significant sectors in four regions within the EU: Core, Southern Periphery, Eastern Periphery, and financial hubs. We also analyze exposure to foreign shocks. Two main conclusions can be drawn: on the one hand, periphery countries are more exposed to shocks originating in the EU core than the other way around; on the other hand, all EU regions are considerably exposed to price shocks originating from non-EU countries, namely Russia and China. The strategic dependencies of the block pose challenges for price stability and require targeted policies. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Supply chain shocks, Input-Output, Core-periphery |
| JEL: | C67 E31 E61 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ter:wpaper:00179 |
| By: | Bukhari Sillah (Islamic Development Bank and MS Research Hub) |
| Abstract: | This research paper examines the implications of China's zero import tariff policy on African member countries of the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), effective from May 1, 2026. The policy aims to enhance Africa-China trade by removing tariffs on imports from 53 African countries, potentially shifting trade patterns towards higher value-added exports. While countries like Morocco, Nigeria, and Tunisia are projected to see significant gains, structural constraints may limit benefits for others. The policy is expected to foster inclusive growth and job creation, benefiting women and youth. However, challenges such as logistics bottlenecks and product compliance issues need addressing. Long-term strategies should focus on upgrading industrial capabilities and diversifying exports to enhance trade balances and promote sustainable growth. |
| Keywords: | Trade; Energy |
| Date: | 2026–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:msrwps:022605 |
| By: | Zafar, Maryam; Siddiqui, Danish Ahmed |
| Abstract: | The bibliometric analysis delves into the progression and influence of research concerning the quality of tourism, emphasizing the patterns, inputs, and thematic advancements within the domain. According to the study, conference papers provide a lesser percentage of insightful material than journal articles, which indicates a strong emphasis on peer-reviewed research and accounts for the majority of relevant literature. Since 1983, the field of study has changed dramatically. Notable growth began in the late 1990s and peaked in the most recent years, indicating a rise in scholarly interest in high-quality tourism. Important journals like "The Journal of Quality Assurance in Hospitality and Tourism, " "Sustainability Switzerland, " and "Tourism Management, " are crucial in influencing the conversation. Keywords that stand out are "quality of life, " "tourism, " and "sustainability, " with an emphasis on global viewpoints, particularly as they relate to China. The field has advanced thanks to significant contributions from people like Carneiro, Eusébio, and Uysal as well as organizations like Universidade Q9 and the Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Strong international cooperation is highlighted by the citation network, which shows strong connections between China, the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Portugal. The study emphasizes a multidisciplinary strategy that integrates environmental and managerial factors into the quality of tourism. Although the study offers a thorough overview, its limitations include methodological issues, temporal and linguistic biases, and dependence on particular data sources. All things considered, the analysis presents a vibrant and cooperative field characterized by significant scholarly involvement and an increasing focus on sustainability and interdisciplinary research. |
| Keywords: | Tourism, Tourist satisfaction, Quality of Tourism, travel & tourism, bibliometric analysis, tourism research |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341076 |
| By: | Sugata Marjit; Gouranga Das; Mausumi Kar; Ujjyini Kar; Lei Yang |
| Abstract: | This paper analytically explores how FDI are affected by Tariffs as President Trump has imposed retaliatory tariffs on countries which have trade surplus with US and declared this as a strategy to attract tariff jumping FDI into US.. Our motivational empirical results show that with greater trade-openness, historically, greater trade deficit led to larger FDI into US. So correcting deficits artificially by a tariff would actually adversely impact FDI flows into US. We then show that:(i) based on the long-run Heckscher-Ohlin [HOS] model where capital is mobile and FDI is an avenue whereby capital outflows could occur based on the rate of return, for US type economy, return to capital will fall as Wage will rise via Stolper-Samuelson effects while for exporting trade-surplus economies like China, the result would be opposite as labor-intensive goods are taxed by US tariff. As return to capital rises, capital will outflow from USA; (ii) However, alternatively, in a very short-run scenario where inter-country capital flows are not so fast (immobile) and not-easy for moving out but within-country perfectly mobile, the outcomes could be very different. With sector-specific capital in the exporting trade-surplus economy, return to capital might fall in both places and the result can go either way. Historically free trade created the trade deficit but return to capital in USA was higher and attracted FDI. Thus, tariff escalation might go either way, without having much to do with controlling trade surplus or deficit. |
| Keywords: | tariff war, trade deficit, wages, FDI, FPI, general equilibrium |
| JEL: | F10 F11 F13 F40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12701 |
| By: | Alfaro, Laura; Chen, Maggie; Chor, Davin |
| Abstract: | Amid public skepticism toward trade, we investigate whether evidence-based information - concise statements of research findings - can shape trade policy preferences. In survey experiments conducted on U.S. general population samples from 2018-2022, we consistently uncover a “backfire effect”: information highlighting the benefits of trade, such as job gains in productive sectors or lower prices for consumers, induces protectionist preferences. We interpret this effect as stemming from prior-biased belief updating, whereby the information activates pre-existing concerns about competition for jobs and trade relations with China. These associations are evoked particularly among limited-attention respondents, as well as politically-engaged Republicans. |
| Keywords: | Information;Trade policy preferences;Protectionism |
| JEL: | D80 F10 F60 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14597 |
| By: | Lana Friesen (School of Economics, University of Queensland); Ian MacKenzie (School of Economics, University of Queensland); Peiyao Shen (Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Basel, Peter-Merian-Weg 6, 4002 Basel, Switzerland.) |
| Abstract: | Markets are an increasingly popular regulatory choice to cost effectively control negative externalities. Traditionally, market designs have employed a cap-and-trade format that places an absolute limit on the quantity of emissions. In contrast, many new schemes—including the world’s largest in China—limit the aggregate emissions intensity of production. This article theoretically and experimentally compares intensity- and capbased markets. We design a novel laboratory experiment, where firms choose both output and allowance exchange. Consistent with our theoretical predictions, we find that employing an intensity-based market rather than an equivalent cap-and-trade scheme significantly increases aggregate output, average allowance prices, aggregate abatement, and decreases industry profits. Overall, both markets perform as expected and close to the cost effective allocation of pollution abatement but with lower levels of aggregate profit as high production costs types produce significantly more output than predicted. |
| Keywords: | auction, intensity-based, cap-and-trade, experiment |
| JEL: | C92 H23 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:673 |