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on China |
| By: | Thomas Lapi (UPCité - Université Paris Cité) |
| Abstract: | Minerals and metals are crucial to modern technologies. Over the past decades, China has built up a dominant position on the value chain of energy and digital technologies through domestic mining, refining and manufacturing. Chinese foreign direct investments (FDI) in the metal sector are integral to this strategy: by establishing a global value chain system, the expansion of Chinese firms abroad contributes to securing the supply of raw materials for domestic industries. This paper assesses global Chinese FDI in the metal sector from 2005 to 2024 and discusses their integration into China's global political strategy. Using quantitative and qualitative analysis, we show that China's investments reflect an integrated supply security approach, with interlinked investments in metals, energy and transport infrastructures, exemplified with a case study in Peru. We identified a sharp decline of Chinese FDI in the Australian metal sector over the period studied, reflecting geopolitical tensions and the tightening relationship between Australia and the United States. Chinese firms preferentially target countries with high-market concentration of strategic materials such as Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Peru. Overall, this mining diplomacy strengthens China's dominant position in the value chains of strategic technologies. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitics, Foreign Direct Investments, Supply chains, Critical raw materials, China |
| Date: | 2026–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05712330 |
| By: | Zhang, Yifan; Tian, Xiaohui |
| Abstract: | Existing projections of China’s forest carbon sink treat management as exogenous, ignoring how timber prices shape investment, species selection, and harvest timing. We develop a high-resolution China module within the Global Timber Model (GTM), a dynamic partial-equilibrium optimization framework calibrated to the Ninth National Forest Inventory across 234 land classes. Under the baseline, China’s forests sequester an average of 164 Tg C yr−1 between 2020 and 2060, stabilizing above 100 Tg C yr−1 through end-of-century. Commercial plantations, 24% of forest area, contribute over half the total sink by 2060. Holding management intensity fixed reduces the sink by 15% by 2060. Higher timber demand strengthens the sink through intensified management, while relaxing logging restrictions generates short-term carbon costs but long-term net gains. |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404739 |
| By: | , KuoRayMao; Zhu, Yiliang; Zhao, Zhong; Yan, Shan |
| Abstract: | This chapter offers one of the first studies to examine critically the connection between deficiencies in China’s regulatory apparatus and the criminality associated with illegal dumping and trading of medical waste—specifically as it pertains to waste dumping in rural northwestern China. The authors begin with a brief review of green criminology’s approach to waste crime and summarise the literature on top-down environmental regulation enforcement in China. Next, they describe the development of the medical waste regulation framework and highlight the current obstacles to enforcement in China. The chapter then introduces a case study to illustrate how institutional incentives in the job performance evaluation system of bureaucrats resulted in the under-enforcement of medical waste regulations at the level of rural governance. Their chapter concludes by suggesting that to study environmental offenses in China, green criminologists must examine how the institutional practices of the fragmented bureaucracy shape the economic, political, and social contexts that have structured the complexity of environmental regulation enforcement in this illiberal and restrictive society. |
| Date: | 2026–07–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:45uh2_v1 |
| By: | Güçeri, Irem; Hou, Xipei; Xing, Jing |
| Abstract: | We examine how investor-level tax incentives affect financing for start-ups using the introduction of a generous tax deduction for qualified angel and VC investment in China as a quasi-natural experiment. We find that the tax incentive increases funding for eligible start-ups, with stronger responses from larger and more experienced investors. The tax incentive leads to substitution between eligible and non-eligible investments. There is no evidence that the tax incentive lowers investment quality. We further show that the investor-level tax incentive encourages firm entry into affected industries, especially in cities more exposed to venture capital funds. |
| Keywords: | Venture capital; Tax incentives |
| JEL: | G24 G32 H25 L26 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19199 |
| By: | Xin Zhang; Yixuan Wang; Xingyi Hu; Xi Chen |
| Abstract: | We examine how prenatal exposure to air pollution interacts with gender-biased parental investments to shape long-run cognitive performance. Using nationally representative survey data from China, we show that fetal PM2.5 exposure significantly reduces cognitive ability for women, particularly among those with brothers. Our evidence suggests that the family investment channel operates primarily through education rather than health, with gender-biased educational resource allocation compounding negative outcomes for females. Specifically, conditional on the same level of fetal PM2.5 exposure, females receive less homework assistance from their families and attain lower levels of education. |
| JEL: | D13 I14 I24 J13 J16 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35591 |
| By: | Gerresheim, Nils; Krahé, Max; van 't Klooster, Jens |
| Abstract: | The United States is increasingly willing to weaponise the global dependence on the dollar, raising the costs of that dependence for economies around the world. China offers the most instructive case of a major economy trying to reduce that dependence. In this report we analyse China's effort and draw lessons for Europe. Our findings: progress has differed markedly across the three use-cases of an international currency (settlement, invoicing, and investment). China made most progress on settlement, with more than half of its own trade now settled in RMB. It achieved this largely by providing efficient payment infrastructure, such as an offshore clearing-bank network, the CIPS payment system, a central bank digital currency (the e-CNY), and a broad network of central bank swap lines. Progress on invoicing and investment has been more limited, held back by the network effects that entrench the dollar and by the shallowness of RMB markets. Two lessons follow for Europe: first, providing more efficient payment infrastructure can meaningfully reduce reliance on dollar settlement. This reduces dependence where Europe is most vulnerable. Second, to reduce dollar dependency in invoicing and investment, too, a more thorough approach would be needed. |
| Keywords: | Dedollarisation, China, Geoeconomics, Europe |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dzimps:343004 |
| By: | Qiao, Xiyuan; Zhu, Chen |
| Abstract: | Ensuring food security under increasing climate risks has become an important policy challenge. Policy-based agricultural insurance is an important instrument for governments to stabilize agricultural production and enhance farmers' resilience to production risks. China launched policy-based staple grain insurance for rice, corn, and wheat in 2018, covering both full cost insurance and planting income insurance. Based on the staggered implementation of the policy across counties in thirteen major provinces that produce staple grains in China, this paper uses panel data at the county level covering 2010-2023 and employs a staggered difference-in-differences model to estimate the effect of the policy on the acreage of the three staple grains. The policy raises the acreage of the three staple grains of pilot counties by around 8.2 percent, which survives various robustness tests. Extreme climate days positively moderate the policy effect, meaning larger gains in high climate risk regions. The effects are stronger in North China and in counties with less per capita arable land and higher levels of economic development. The findings provide new empirical evidence on how policy-based agricultural insurance promotes land allocation toward staple grain production and have policy implications for food security in developing economies. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404331 |
| By: | Huang, Hanwei; Ju, Jiandong; Yue, Vivian |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the evolution of China's production and trade patterns during its integration into the global economy. We document and explain new facts concerning changes in production and exports at the industry and firm levels using microdata and a quantitative Ricardian and Heckscher–Ohlin model with heterogeneous firms. Counterfactual simulations reveal that capital deepening made China's production and exports more capital-intensive, although labor-biased productivity growth acted as a counterforce. Consistent with the data, our model demonstrates that China's trade openness peaked around the mid-2000s and fell until the 2020s, while the world's exposure to Chinese exports rose continuously. |
| JEL: | D24 E23 E25 F12 F14 L16 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19257 |
| By: | Suqin Ge; Naijia Guo; Zibin Huang; Junsen Zhang; Li Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how innovation shapes migration across skill groups. Using Chinese microdata from 2005-2015, we find that cities with faster patent growth attract more low-skilled than high-skilled migrants, opposite to patterns in developed countries. These cities see similar wage growth for both groups but limited amenity gains. We develop and estimate a spatial equilibrium model showing that low-skilled workers prioritize wages, while high-skilled workers value amenities, which rise with the share of skilled workers. Patent shocks draw in more low-skilled workers, reducing amenities and deterring high-skilled migration. Overall, technological growth raised wages and welfare without increasing spatial inequality. |
| Keywords: | Patent, Migration, Spatial equilibrium, Wage, Amenity |
| JEL: | J24 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26176 |
| By: | Anning Xie |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role of intrahousehold bargaining in shaping women’s fertil ity decisions over the life cycle. I develop and estimate a quantitative life-cycle model featuring a dynamic feedback loop between fertility and bargaining power: childbirth low ers women’s wages and outside options, weakening their bargaining position within the household and further constraining their autonomy over future fertility decisions. These bargaining concerns are quantitatively important in depressing marriage incentives, gener ating inefficient divorce, and consequently lower fertility at the household level. Exploiting the relaxation of the One-Child Policy in China, I show that couples with misaligned fer tility preferences exhibit smaller fertility responses and higher divorce rates than couples with aligned preferences. The estimated model further indicates that such couples are less likely to form marriages and tend to marry at later ages. Removing bargaining frictions encourages earlier childbearing, increases completed fertility, and strengthens fertility re sponse to family policies. |
| Keywords: | fertility, intrahousehold bargaining, marriage and divorce, female labor supply, human capital |
| JEL: | D15 J12 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_760v2 |
| By: | , KuoRayMao; Jin, Shuqin; Yu Hu; Weeks, Nefratiri; Ye, Liangjun |
| Abstract: | As industrialized animal agriculture expanded rapidly in the last decade, the resultant pollution has generated widespread despoliation of natural resources and environmental victimization in rural China. This study examines the formulation and implementation of national environmental regulations from 2014 to 2019 and finds that the juxtaposing ministerial and provincial jurisdictions resulted in conflicting interpretations of the scale and evaluation criteria of the national policy. We argue that the regulations are more than centralized conservation programs designed to reduce environmental pollution caused by the expansion of animal husbandry. Instead, these regulations are fundamentally state-led rural development initiatives that utilize the designations of ecological protection zones to reconfigure land use and promote scale-up production in agricultural structural adjustment initiatives. The enforcement of these environmental regulations, therefore, constitutes a treadmill of law (ToL) that accelerated the geographical specialization and function intensification of the Chinese husbandry sector. |
| Date: | 2026–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:k2zg6_v1 |
| By: | Fang, Ming; Wang, Shuang |
| Abstract: | We investigate the role of informal institutions—specifically, clan culture—in facilitating agricultural land markets in the absence of robust formal property rights. Exploiting the staggered rollout of China's agricultural land certification program as a quasi-experiment, we analyze rural household land rental behavior. We document two main findings. First, villages with stronger clan networks exhibit significantly higher rates of land out-leasing, highlighting the protective role of informal cultural norms on land tenure security. Second, the policy-induced increase in land leasing— driven by the formalization of property rights—is substantially weaker in villages with strong pre-existing clan cultures. Our findings suggest a strong substitution effect between formal legal institutions and informal cultural norms, providing direct empirical evidence on the protective power of social capital in developing economies. |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404430 |
| By: | Paul Bergin; Woo Jin Choi; Ju H. Pyun |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomics tends to view exchange rate movements as transitory. However, persistent exchange rate realignments and the associated capital flows can have long-run implications for structural change and productivity growth. We provide empirical evidence that policies of reserve accumulation and currency undervaluation have had significant effects on manufacturing productivity, as well as on manufacturing share, product varieties, and domestic orientation of production chains. We develop a dynamic two-country model with two sectors, firm dynamics, and trade hysteresis to demonstrate a novel mechanism by which exchange rate policy reorients global supply chains and industrial structure. The model identifies conditions under which such a policy raises productivity and welfare in the home country. It also identifies conditions under which the policy leads to either permanent or reversible deindustrialization in a trading partner. Findings have implications for the long-run relationship between China and the U.S. |
| JEL: | E58 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35609 |
| By: | , KuoRayMao; Zhao, Zhong; Xu, Yue |
| Abstract: | This study examines China's environmental governance through the framework of Althusser's Repressive and Ideological State Apparatuses, using the 2021 Shenzhen Blueway Ecological Belt Project as a case study. Despite the formalization of public participation, the authoritarian state employs legal, bureaucratic, and ideological mechanisms to suppress dissent while preserving legitimacy. The findings reveal how control over information flows and media narratives, coupled with legal and bureaucratic constraints on NGOs, systematically undermines public engagement and reinforces top-down governance. The Shenzhen case demonstrates the state's dual strategy of repression and ideological control, wherein environmental governance operates both as a political instrument and a means of consolidating state authority. By co-opting NGOs, restricting transparency, and framing environmental contention as a national security threat, the state effectively neutralizes opposition and fortifies its state-capitalist accumulation model. This study contributes to the discourse on authoritarian environmentalism, underscoring its long-term implications for sustainability, public participation, and state-society relations. |
| Date: | 2026–07–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4pm57_v1 |
| By: | Lin, Wuyin; , KuoRayMao; Zhao, Xinyin |
| Abstract: | This study examines the illegal marine wildlife trade in Southern China, focusing on sea turtles, giant clams, and corals, to assess enforcement challenges, market dynamics, and consumer behaviors. Adopting a multi-method approach, it incorporates a comprehensive policy and regulatory review spanning 1979–2022, along with market and consumer surveys conducted before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Standardized training protocols were used for data collection, including consumer questionnaires and stakeholder interviews with a diverse range of actors. Market surveys reveal a 17.06 % decrease in the number of shops selling marine wildlife products but a 32.72 % increase in items available for sale, suggesting a concentration of trade activity. Consumer data indicate that the majority of potential buyers were aged 23–30 (38.93 %) and 31–45 (24.83 %), with 60 % identifying as female. Stakeholder interviews identify distinct supply chain nodes facilitating illegal trade across the region. Despite policy reforms and intensified enforcement at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the study finds that marine species remain vulnerable due to fragmented regulations and inconsistent enforcement across jurisdictions. Sellers continue to exploit short-term, top-down enforcement gaps, maintaining illicit trade flows and meeting persistent consumer demand. The findings underscore the resilience of illegal trade networks and the inadequacy of reactive enforcement strategies. A multi-stakeholder approach—grounded in inter-agency coordination and civic engagement—is essential. Without sustained, community-driven enforcement mechanisms, policy efforts will remain ineffective, exacerbating illegal trade and accelerating biodiversity loss in China and the wider Global South. |
| Date: | 2026–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:vdkte_v1 |
| By: | Eunkyo Cho (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | US-China competition has moved past its first round, a contest of trade and technology pressure fought over tariffs and core technologies, and is evolving into a race to capture the global AI ecosystem of the physical AI era and to set the standards for industrial architecture. China is pursuing three shifts in its AI and supply chain strategy. First, as the effectiveness of US export controls erodes, it is building both leverage over demand markets and a semiconductor ecosystem of its own. Second, as the only country that covers every branch of industry in the UN industrial classification, it is applying AI to upgrade even its traditional manufacturing sector, turning manufacturing as a whole into a strategic asset. Third, it is using physical AI to extend its manufacturing and process-based standards worldwide.<p> The second round of this competition calls for a Korean response that goes beyond a defensive diversification of supply chains. That response should center on three lines of action: building a K-manufacturing architecture that vertically integrates chokepoint assets with a manufacturing large language model (LLM) trained on the judgment data of demanding production processes; upgrading the K-materials industry by applying AI to traditional flagship industries; and pursuing the architectural assetization of K-manufacturing by binding Korea’s separate strengths in technology, production capacity, standards, and shop-floor data into a single asset system. The indispensable assets developed in this way should in turn support deeper strategic partnerships, ones in which Korea participates in the technology ecosystems of major economies as a co-designer rather than a component supplier. |
| Keywords: | US-China competition, supply chains, traditional manufacturing, physical AI, economic security |
| JEL: | F52 L60 O25 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:023549 |
| By: | Rutledge, Zach; Mayorga, Joaquin |
| Abstract: | China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 reshaped global trade, reducing U.S. demand for Mexican manufactured goods and weakening Mexico’s manufacturing employment. This study estimates how this trade-induced decline affected migration and employment decisions among rural Mexicans. Using individual-level panel data from the Mexican National Rural Household Survey (ENHRUM) and a long-difference framework, we instrument manufacturing employment with regional exposure to Chinese import competition. Results show that a 10-percentage-point decline in manufacturing employment increased the probability of U.S. migration by 24 percentage points and U.S. nonagricultural employment by 17 points, with no significant effects on agricultural employment. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404603 |
| By: | Quoc-Anh Do; Sebastian Ellingsen; Gedeon Lim |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the long-run impacts of diasporas on local economic development. We do so in the context of one of the most economically influential diasporas: the ethnic Chinese in Southeast Asia. Our instrumental variables strategy exploits 15th-century landing sites on Java that shaped subsequent Chinese settlement but lost maritime access due to 17th-century silting. We find that a 1p.p. higher Chinese share in 1930 leads to 9.4% higher household consumption and 26% higher population today. These effects attenuate sharply during the 1997-1998 crisis, then recover. We find strong effects on firm sales driven by improved financing through local private networks but not through exports. We provide suggestive evidence for the key role of historical ethnic-trading networks within Java. Our findings suggest that despite their small size, ethnic minorities with durable complementarities can play an out-sized, positive role in local economic development. |
| Keywords: | diaspora, ethnic minority, immigration, ethnic segregation, conflict, discrimination, private finance, networks |
| JEL: | F63 N35 J15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12893 |
| By: | Shokravi, Hashem; Weiss, Daniel; Spiller, Beia (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | In 2022, the United States launched the Minerals Security Partnership to accelerate the development of diverse critical minerals supply chains in cooperation with industry and allied governments. The partnership brought together 14 countries and the European Union (DOS 2025). It aligned with the Biden administration’s “friend-shoring” strategy, which focused on diversifying supply chains by relocating key manufacturing capacity away from China and toward allied economies. Around the same period, the European Parliament passed the Critical Raw Materials Act, which aimed to reduce reliance on any single country—an implicit reference to China. The act set several benchmarks requiring certain percentages of the European Union’s annual mineral consumption to be produced domestically by 2030: (1) at least 10 percent for extraction; (2) over 40 percent for processing; (3) 25 percent for recycling; and (4) no more than 65 percent of annual processing sourced from any single third country (European Commission 2024). It also promised to reduce administrative burdens and shorten timelines for processing and recycling permits.However, these ambitious goals lacked a clear implementation road map and strategy. Long project timelines and unclear financing limited their feasibility; a critical mineral refinery typically requires years to become commercially mature, even with sustained technological and financial support. Few instruments were available to counter perceived foreign coercion, and cooperating governments were left relying on tariffs or export controls in other sectors, particularly semiconductors. |
| Date: | 2026–08–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:ibrief:ib-26-05 |