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on China |
| By: | Qiu, Shumin; Steinwender, Claudia; Azoulay, Pierre |
| Abstract: | We investigate the phenomenon of home bias in scientific citations, where researchers disproportionately cite work from their own country. We develop a benchmark for expected citations based on the relative size of countries, defining home bias as deviations from this norm. Our findings reveal that China exhibits the largest home bias across all major countries and in nearly all scientific fields studied. This stands in contrast to the pattern of home bias for China's trade in goods and services, where China does not stand out from most industrialized countries. After adjusting citation counts for home bias, we demonstrate that China's apparent rise in citation rankings is overstated. Our adjusted ranking places China fourth globally, behind the US, the UK, and Germany, tempering the perception of China's scientific dominance. |
| Keywords: | Research and development; International spillovers; International trade; Economics of science; Citations; Home bias |
| JEL: | I23 O30 O53 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19897 |
| By: | Ma, Debin; Rubin, Jared |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the old theses of the contrasting paths to modernization between Japan and China. It develops a new analytical framework regarding the role of ideology and ideological change—Meiji Japan’s decisive turn towards the West pitted against Qing China’s lethargic response to Western imperialism—as the key driver behind these contrasting paths. Our framework and historical narrative highlight the contrast between Tokugawa Japan’s feudal, decentralized political regime and Qing China’s centralized bureaucratic system as a key determinant driving the differential patterns of ideological realignment. We argue that the 1894-95 Japanese naval victory over China could not be justified under the prevailing Imperial Chinese ideology and thus served as the catalyst for China’s subsequent ideological transformation, which occurred via borrowing Japan’s successful Meiji reforms of both institutions and ideology. Our analytical framework, developed from a comparative historical narrative, sheds new insights on the importance of ideology and ideological change for our understanding of political and economic change. |
| Keywords: | China; Japan; Economic development |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19573 |
| By: | Zhang, Min; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | Innovation is key for economic growth and well-being. The capacity for innovation, however, is profoundly influenced by the quality of local institutions. Although the impact of national institutions on innovation is well-documented, the effects of subnational institutional variations on innovation remain underexplored. This paper studies the impact of government agency reforms, designed to enhance local government effectiveness, on the innovation performance of city-regions in China. We examine the adoption of these reforms between 2009 and 2016 as an exogenous shock to regional institutions. Our analysis identifies a positive and significant relationship between improvements in institutional quality and the innovation performance of Chinese city-regions, particularly pronounced in regions with medium to high levels of innovation. The results are robust to a series of checks including placebo and endogeneity tests and potential confounding policies. This research highlights the critical role of government institutions in driving innovation across China, bringing to the fore important regional variations in the adoption of government agency reforms that are defining the country’s innovation landscape. |
| Keywords: | Institutions; China |
| JEL: | R11 O11 O43 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19583 |
| By: | Wang, Chenxi |
| Abstract: | This research examines China’s development in terms of the nation’s SOE reforms surrounding the two major milestones in China’s integration with neoliberalism, the accession to the World Trade Organization and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). It considers the interlinking of the legal aspect of China’s SOEs reform with its economic development, and reinforces the economic argument that China has embraced both neoliberalism and state-capitalism in order to achieve its industrial development. This paper highlights the persistent logic of China’s SOEs reform which aims to approach international legal standards while keeping sight of the objectives of economic development. China’s semi-embrace of neoliberalism and its insistence on state capitalism, on the one hand, provide an alternative developmental model for other developing countries, while on the other hand, facing an increasingly deteriorating relationship with the US which cannot tolerate any rising power that challenges its hegemony, especially a power with a different ideology. |
| Keywords: | commercial operation;corporatization;developmental state;neoliberal economic order;state-owned enterprises |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2024–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140388 |
| By: | Yu, Fengrongyin; Zhou, Mi; Huang, Li; Huang, Qihan; Peng, Xinyao |
| Abstract: | While existing research generally views urbanization as a threat to biodiversity, this study presents contrary findings based on China’s quasi-natural experiment in new-type urbanization. Utilizing county-level panel data and bird observation records from China between 2012 and 2022, we employ a staggered difference-in-differences approach for causal identification. The results indicate that the new-type urbanization policy has increased the average number of bird species in pilot areas by 4.691. This effect is attributed to overall improvements in habitat quality, specifically through enhanced regional ecological environmental conditions, expanded green infrastructure, and optimized industrial spatial layouts. The impact of the policy is most significant in regions with lower baseline biodiversity, in the northwestern segment of the Hu Huanyong Line with smaller population density, and in municipal districts. Further analysis reveals that while bird diversity exhibits spatial dependence across counties, the effects of the policy are largely confined to the pilot areas, without significant spatial spillover. This study substantiates the ecologica2 benefits of people-centered urbanization and provides empirical evidence and policy 43 insights from China for biodiversity conservation in the context of global 44 urbanization. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404497 |
| By: | Qin, Zhiran; Merel, Pierre |
| Abstract: | China’s transition from prudent pilots to nationwide commercialization of genetically modified (GM) corn and soybeans represents a potentially consequential shift in global crop supply, given the country’s outsized role in world feedgrain and oilseed demand and trade. How a domestic GM rollout transmits through international markets to change production, trade flows, and welfare outcomes is a central but under-studied question, with particular relevance for export-dependent producers and import-dependent consumers. Two foundations motivate the analysis. First, China is actively scaling GM corn and soybean cultivation under a national food-security strategy that prioritizes “bio-breeding”. Second, China’s large demand profile and bilateral trade shares imply that any supply-side shock originating in its domestic agriculture transmits to world prices and welfare in proportion to that exposure. We develop and calibrate a partial equilibrium model of world crop demand and supply, disciplined by observable production, consumption, and trade shares together with behavioral elasticities. We apply a 20% yield improvement to China’s soybean acreage and obtain three main findings. The domestic supply response is large in percentage terms but transmits weakly to consumer-relevant prices, because imports supply the majority of baseline Chinese soybean volume. World-price spillovers are modest, with the largest non-China producer-price decline below 1%. Welfare gains are concentrated in China; Brazil and the United States bear the largest producer losses, though domestic consumer gains partially offset these at the national welfare level. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404675 |
| By: | Chad P. Bown (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Are foreign supply chains that service the US market still decoupling from China? If so, where are the new chains forming, how quickly is the process happening, and why is it unfolding the way it is? This paper provides an initial empirical assessment of the changing nature of product-level sourcing of US imports in the wake of the tariffs President Donald J. Trump imposed in 2018-19 and 2025. It establishes numerous stylized facts. For example, US imports of many consumer electronics--including smartphones, laptops, monitors, and video game consoles--did not decline sharply in 2025 despite US tariffs hitting Chinese production for the first time. Multinational firms had established alternative supply chains in India and Vietnam which they quickly sourced from instead. In contrast, US importers of clothing and footwear did not reorient their supply chains, in part perhaps because the resulting difference between US tariff increases on China and on third countries for those products was too small to motivate them to do so. Finally, much of the longer-term shift of US import sourcing toward Taiwan and Mexico reflected the increasing economic importance of imported inputs for the data center buildout for artificial intelligence, and not strictly decoupling supply chains with China. |
| Keywords: | Tariffs, supply chains, United States, China. |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp26-14 |
| By: | Ma, Debin |
| Abstract: | Lu Xun (1881-1936), regarded as the single most important and influential writer of modern China and East Asia, is surprisingly little-known in the West. His stories and personalities - now household names and symbols - had touched the nerves of a once profound nation caught in the depth of an identity crisis faced with decline and collapse. Through an analysis of “The Diary of a Madman†, “Medicine†and the characters of Ah-Q, Kong Yiji and Runtu in his collection of stories “Scream†, this paper unveils Lu Xun’s penetrating insights on the complexity and nuance of culture as both determinants and impediments to social and economic transformation at historical crossroads. I show that theoretical framework of political economy and economics of identity are of particular relevance in understanding Lu Xun’s penetrating and satirical critique on the paradoxical aspect of how the Chinese elites and masses both exploit and are exploited by traditional Chinese ideology. This paper concludes that Lu Xun - as a writer and a concept – remains highly relevant for understanding China’s past, present and future. |
| JEL: | N0 B30 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19577 |
| By: | Cordella, Tito; Cufre, Maia; Presbitero, Andrea |
| Abstract: | Twenty years after the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) debt relief initiative, debt levels in low-income countries are rising again, renewing sustainability concerns. The prevailing view suggests that China and other emerging lenders exploited the HIPC initiative to expand lending. Using a synthetic control method to generate a counterfactual, we find that, contrary to this narrative, China and other emerging lenders reduced net lending after debt relief; only multilateral creditors increased it. Furthermore, we find no support for the claim that debt relief encouraged lending to political allies. Overall, debt relief seems to have had limited influence on subsequent lending patterns. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign debt; International lending; China; Debt relief; Geoeconomics |
| JEL: | F14 F60 I18 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19895 |
| By: | Jiang, Zhengyang; Liu, Hongqi; Peng, Cameron; Yan, Hongjun |
| Abstract: | We survey a large, representative sample of retail investors in China to elicit their memories of stock market investments and their return expectations. We merge this survey data with administrative transaction data to test a model in which investors selectively recall past experiences to form their beliefs. Our analysis uncovers new facts about investor memory and highlights similarity-based recall as a novel mechanism of belief formation in financial markets. A rising market prompts investors to recall their past experiences more positively, leading to more optimistic forecasts of future returns. Recalled experiences explain a sizable fraction of cross-investor variation in return expectations and dominate actual experiences in their explanatory power. In the transaction data, we confirm that recalled experiences affect investors’ trading decisions through a belief channel. |
| Keywords: | Memory; Trading |
| JEL: | D14 D91 G41 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19871 |
| By: | Shiue, Carol; Keller, Wolfgang |
| Abstract: | This paper documents persistence in the power of elite families in Central China despite dynastic change. We study the impact of the fall of the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644) on couples and their descendants (treatment of people), and present evidence on the response of multi-generational family lines to a big shock. Local Ming elites suffered a decline in influence in the short run, but in the long-run their descendants recovered and tightened their grip on power in their role as the elites of the new Qing Dynasty (1644-1911). In contrast to the recovery of family lines, the fall of Ming had a more persistently negative impact on the regions that historically were most strongly negatively affected by the shock (treatment of regions). The paper suggests that the elite reversal is due to trauma caused by Ming destruction that shifted norms towards the most socially respectable career paths based on the civil service exam; these norms were, to a greater degree, intergenerationally transmitted in family lines that suffered more from the destruction in the fall of the Ming dynasty. |
| Keywords: | Institutions |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19642 |
| By: | Bai, Ying; Jia, Ruixue; Yang, Jiaojiao |
| Abstract: | This study examines the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of state censorship on knowledge production, focusing on the largest book-banning campaign in Chinese history, initiated during the compilation of the Siku Quanshu (Complete Library in Four Sections) between 1772 and 1783. Analyzing publication data from over 161, 000 books spanning the 1660s to the 1940s, we find that categories subjected to stricter censorship experienced significant declines in publication during the seven decades following the bans (1770s–1830s). However, beginning in the 1840s, political upheavals and the erosion of state control triggered a resurgence of publications in previously restricted categories. This pattern of suppression and recovery extends to ideas, as evidenced by keyword analysis of book titles. Further analysis highlights the central role of chilling effects in driving these dynamics, with the exit and entry of publishers playing a crucial role in both the suppression and subsequent revival of knowledge production. |
| Keywords: | Censorship; Ideas |
| JEL: | D83 H11 O31 Z19 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19803 |
| By: | Cozariuc, Catalina; Laeven, Luc; Popov, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Using data on over 300, 000 scientific articles in 40 top journals across 6 scientific fields, we show that after the adoption of China's National Medium- and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Science and Technology (NMLP) in 2006, China's share of academic publications and citations increased gradually and significantly. The increase is most pronounced in scientific fields that were explicit focus areas of the NMLP (physics, chemistry, biology, and medicine), as opposed to fields that were largely ignored by the NMLP (mathematics and economics). Our evidence provides support for the notion that government spending can spur scientific progress, at least in a centrally planned economy. |
| Keywords: | China; Research and development |
| JEL: | F62 I28 O38 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19887 |
| By: | Cun, Wukuang; Quadrini, Vincenzo; Sun, Qi; Xia, Junjie |
| Abstract: | Using firm-level data from China we find that inspections of central SOEs have significant impact on the investment and performance of the controlled companies. Companies controlled by indicted SOEs invested less, experienced lower performance but allocate more resources toward ‘social’ objectives in the aftermath of the inspection. To rationalize these findings and to study the implications of inspections for allocation efficiency, we propose a dynamic model with repeated moral hazard with two types of productions: market and social production. Although inspections could be instrumental to achieve social goals, they also carry some costs. We also investigate the effectiveness of how alternative corporate policies toward central SOEs such as managerial monitoring and tenure. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19963 |
| By: | Xue, Xindong (Zhongnan University of Economics and Law); Ye, Chunchen (Hubei Academy of Healthcare Security Reform and Development); Rocco, Lorenzo (University of Padova) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of retirement on social capital in urban China. Using three waves of the China Family Panel Studies (2018–2022) and a fuzzy regression discontinuity design based on China’s statutory retirement ages, we document that retirement does not raise or lower social capital uniformly but reallocates it. Retirement causes bridging social capital to fall and bonding social capital to rise. The reallocation is concentrated among men, whose pre-retirement networks are more heavily workplace-centered. As governments around the world postpone statutory retirement ages in response to population ageing, our estimates imply that pension reforms carry social externalities of opposing sign that fiscal accounting omits. |
| Keywords: | retirement, social capital, fuzzy regression discontinuity, bridging and bonding social capital |
| JEL: | J26 Z13 I31 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18822 |
| By: | Clayton, Christopher; Maggiori, Matteo; Schreger, Jesse |
| Abstract: | Hegemonic powers, like the United States and China, exert influence on other countries by threatening the suspension or alteration of financial and trade relationships. Mechanisms that generate gains from integration, such as external economies of scale and specialization, also increase the hegemon’s power because in equilibrium they make other relationships poor substitutes for those with a global hegemon. Other countries can implement economic security policies to shape their economies in order to insulate themselves from undue foreign pressure. Countries considering these policies face a tradeoff between gains from trade and economic security. While an individual country can make itself better off, uncoordinated attempts by multiple countries to limit their dependency on the hegemon via economic security policies lead to inefficient fragmentation of the global financial and trade system. We study financial services as a leading application both as tools of coercion and an industry with strong strategic complementarities. We estimate that U.S. geoeconomic power relies on financial services, while Chinese power relies on manufacturing. Since power is nonlinear and increases disproportionally as the hegemon approaches controlling the entire supply of a sectoral input, we estimate that much economic security could be achieved with little overall fragmentation by diversifying the input sources of key sectors currently controlled by the hegemons. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19859 |
| By: | Cheng, Haotian; Liu, Yuanyuan |
| Abstract: | China is at a critical stage of dietary structure upgrading and food system transformation. Traditional livestock production has resulted in a significant carbon footprint in China’s meat supply chain. Cultured meat is considered an emerging alternative protein source to maintain the meat consumption experience and potentially reducing carbon footprints. However, consumers’ willingness to pay for cultured meat is also influenced by surrounding environmental information. This study explores whether information credibility increases Chinese urban consumers’ willingness to pay for cultured meat. Using 1262 survey questionnaires from four major international consumer cities in China (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chongqing), we divided the respondents into three groups based on information credibility and used a Double-bound Contingent Valuation method. The results show that Chinese urban consumers are generally willing to pay a premium for level AA certification label, high protein content, and low carbon footprint cultured meat, but the magnitude of willingness to pay depends on the information consumers receive. Importantly, respondents in the no information group showed the highest average willingness to pay. All information prompts consumers to conduct cautious and risk-aware evaluations, while insufficient information (Tainted Truth Effect) introduces credibility ambiguity, weakening consumers' reliance on factual details. This study has significant implications for evaluating the feasibility of China’s diversified food security strategy, Big Food View and demand-side low-carbon consumption policies. |
| Keywords: | Marketing |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404528 |
| By: | Mary E. Lovely (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Christine Y. Wan (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Using Asian Development Bank multiregional input-output tables for 2007-24, this Policy Brief traces Chinese value added throughout the US import basket. It argues that genuine US economic security requires a more disciplined strategy--identifying actual chokepoints, building competitive alternative suppliers and the infrastructure connecting them to markets, and cooperating with allies rather than forcing them into separate supply chains. The appendix explains the method and databases that the authors used in their analysis. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb26-12 |
| By: | Xie, Chaoping; Pan, Hongye; Grant, Jason; Zhu, Jing |
| Abstract: | With the development of the global trading system, the international division of labor has extended beyond industry into agricultural trade. China’s soybean import dependency has surged from 40% to 83% since joining the WTO, far exceeding the global average. Concurrently, recent disruptions, including the U.S.-China trade war, public health crises, and geopolitical tensions, have driven the global supply chain toward nearshoring, friend-shoring, and localization, exacerbating global food security risks. Effectively responding to these external shocks has become a primary concern for countries. China, for example, implemented the “Soybean Revitalization Plan” as an opportunity to evaluate the impact of changing global agricultural production patterns on trade, employment, and welfare. Our results show that the plan will reduce U.S. soybean exports to China by $0.2~3.7 billion and Brazilian exports by $0.05~2.3 billion, though trade diversion will mitigate these losses, particularly for the U.S. The resulting global redistribution of trade could even enhance global welfare. If US-China negotiations fail alongside the plan’s implementation, Brazil will substantially capture the U.S. market share in China, leaving the U.S. unable to offset losses through export diversion. We conclude that major producing countries should not be overly concerned about the “Soybean Revitalization Plan, ” and the U.S. should prioritize accelerating trade negotiations with China. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404674 |
| By: | Nie, Avery; Ge, Houtian |
| Abstract: | Cotton subsidies remain a major source of controversy in global agricultural trade because they affect world prices, production incentives, and the competitiveness of nonsubsidized producers. While earlier debates focused largely on U.S. cotton support, China and India have become major subsidizing countries, changing the structure of the global cotton subsidy problem. This paper develops a computable general equilibrium model (CGEM) to evaluate the effects of removing cotton subsidies in the United States, China, and India on the world cotton market. The model divides the world into five country groups and simulates alternative policy scenarios, including individual subsidy removal, proportional subsidy reductions, and complete elimination of subsidies in all three countries. Results show that subsidy removal raises the world cotton price, reduces production in subsidizing countries, and shifts production and export opportunities toward non-subsidized cotton producers. Complete removal of subsidies in the United States, China, and India increases the simulated world cotton price by approximately 11% relative to the benchmark. The trade results further show that U.S. subsidies primarily support export supply, China’s subsidies reduce import dependence, and India’s subsidies support domestic production and exportable surplus. Welfare effects are uneven: non-subsidized exporters benefit from higher prices and expanded market opportunities, while cotton-importing regions face higher costs. These findings suggest that cotton subsidy reform remains important not only for market efficiency but also for development outcomes in cotton-dependent exporting regions, particularly West and Central Africa (WCA). |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404642 |
| By: | Bai, Chengxi; Liu, Naixi; Dai, Wenrui |
| Abstract: | Over the past two decades, the number of natural villages in China has declined from approximately 3.5 million to about 2.3 million. Using nationwide 30-meter resolution satellite remote sensing data combined with county-level panel data for more than 2, 700 counties from 2000 to 2023, this study examines the relationship between village merging and agricultural productivity growth. The results reveal a robust and positive association between the intensity of village merging and agricultural total factor productivity, and this relationship remains stable across a wide range of robustness checks. The positive effect is also observed in the context of three major policy interventions that significantly accelerated village merging: the Urban-Rural Construction Land Linkage Policy, Poverty Alleviation Relocation, and Village Merging Pilot programs. Mechanism analysis shows that village merging enhances agricultural productivity mainly by optimizing the spatial layout of agricultural facility land to support contiguous large-scale operations, promoting the specialization of agricultural producers, and improving human capital. Further heterogeneity analysis indicates that the magnitude of these effects varies across different stages of economic development, agricultural industrial structures, and geographic regions. Overall, this study provides new insights into China’s development experience in alleviating land misallocation and improving agricultural productivity in the contemporary era. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404753 |
| By: | Barwick, Panle; Kalouptsidi, Myrto; Zahur, Nahim Bin |
| Abstract: | Industrial policy has been used throughout history in some form or other by most countries. Yet, it remains one of the most contentious issues among policymakers and economists alike. In part, this is because the empirical evidence on whether and how it should be implemented remains slim. Scant data on government subsidies, conflicting theoretical arguments, and the need to account for governments’ short and long-run objectives, render research particularly challenging. In this article, we outline a theory-based empirical methodology that relies on estimating an industry equilibrium model to measure hidden subsidies, assess their welfare consequences for the domestic and global economy, as well as evaluate the effectiveness of different policy designs. We illustrate this approach using the global shipbuilding industry as a prototypical example of an industry targeted by industrial policy, especially in periods of heavy industrialization. Just in the past century, Europe, followed by Japan, then South Korea, and more recently China, developed national shipbuilding programs to propel their firms to global leaders. Success has been mixed across programs, certainly by welfare metrics, and sometimes even by growth metrics. We use our methodology on China to dissect the impact of such programs, what made them more or less successful, and how we can justify why governments have chosen shipbuilding as a target. |
| Keywords: | Shipbuilding |
| JEL: | L5 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19557 |
| By: | Chen, Kevin Z.; Huang, Yuanmao; Yan, Zhen |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the historical performance, evolutionary trends, and future opportunities and challenges of China’s agrifood system (AFS) from 2012 to 2023. By constructing multi-year social accounting matrices (SAMs), the study quantifies the economic scale and structural characteristics of the AFS, as well as its historical contribution to broader economic transformation and growth. Utilizing the China Agrifood System Model, the study evaluates the effectiveness of productivity enhancements across different value chains in promoting multidimensional development goals, such as GDP growth, job creation, and poverty eradication. The findings indicate that the transformation of the AFS is a core component of China’s economic transformation. Although the AFS’s share of the national economy has declined during industrialization, its contribution to inclusive economic transformation remains substantial. This continued importance is closely linked to profound structural shifts within the sector, as value creation has increasingly moved from primary production toward downstream segments such as processing, trade, and food services. General equilibrium simulations indicate that some agricultural sectors, including maize, vegetables, and fisheries, generate strong multiplier effects on non-agricultural employment, helping to absorb labor and alleviate transition pressures. The study concludes that continuously optimizing the internal structure of the AFS and strengthening integrated value chain synergies are critical pathways for addressing future resource and environmental constraints while achieving sustainable and inclusive development. |
| Keywords: | food systems; agrifood systems; economic growth; economic development; inclusive growth; sustainable development; large language models; development economics; China; Asia; Eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:183570 |
| By: | Yue Ma; Tianli Feng; Robert W. Fairlie; Chengfang Liu; Prashant Loyalka; Scott Rozelle; Xinwu Zhang |
| Abstract: | The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) has heightened interest in personalizing computer assisted learning (CAL) programs to tailor their instruction to individual students. Despite the proliferation of AI-driven CAL programs, evidence for their effectiveness remains limited. We present findings from a large-scale field experiment in rural China examining whether an AI-driven personalized CAL program improves student achievement. We randomly assign 8, 647 students from 315 primary school classes to one of three treatment arms: (i) AI-CAL, (ii) non-personalized CAL (active control), and (iii) non-CAL educational activities (pure control). Results indicate that AI-CAL does not significantly improve achievement, with estimates precise enough to rule out non-trivial positive effects. This finding holds across the difficulty of assessment items and across the baseline achievement of students. The finding that R-CAL modestly benefits students in the middle ability tercile while AI-CAL shows no impact on students in any ability tercile suggests caution when projecting the promise of scaling adaptive AI-driven educational technologies in under-resourced settings. |
| Keywords: | AI, education technology, computer assisted learning, adaptive learning, ICT, RCT, rural China |
| JEL: | I21 O15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12837 |
| By: | Ma, Zhiyao; Sexton, Richard J.; Zhong, Zhen |
| Abstract: | Inefficient land allocation between rural and urban areas persists in China under rigid land-use regulations and sustained rural outmigration. In 2008, the central government authorized Chongqing, a municipality with provincial-level authority, to pilot Dipiao, the Land Coupon Program (LCP), a market-based mechanism allowing rural construction quotas to be traded for urban expansion, with the stated goals of advancing urban–rural integration and raising rural household incomes. We examine whether the LCP narrowed the urban–rural income gap. Exploiting staggered county-level adoption across 37 counties between 2009 and 2017, we apply heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences estimators, complemented by provincial-level synthetic control analysis. The LCP lowered Chongqing’s urban–rural income ratio by 0.21 (6.0%) on average, with the effect growing monotonically to 0.29 (8.3%) after nine years. Most convergence occurred within counties, driven by rising rural incomes rather than falling urban ones. Participation tracked baseline disadvantage: poorer, more rural, and more unequal counties adopted the LCP earlier and traded more intensively. A multiplier analysis further suggests that land coupon revenues flowing to rural households and collectives amplified local economic impacts, reducing inequality in a progressive and compounding manner. More broadly, our findings show how government-facilitated market mechanisms can promote inclusive growth and reduce spatial inequality in economies where private landholding is constrained, contributing to debates on transferable rights in transitional and developing settings. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404632 |
| By: | Breinlich, Holger; Leromain, Elsa; Novy, Dennis; Sampson, Thomas |
| Abstract: | In trade models with scale economies, import liberalization reduces exports within industries by shrinking real market potential. We find this export destruction mechanism reduced US export growth following the permanent normalization of trade relations with China (PNTR). There was also an offsetting boost to exports from lower input costs. We use our estimates to calibrate a quantitative model and show that scale economies are economically important for trade policy analysis. Although PNTR increased aggregate US exports relative to GDP, exports declined in the most exposed industries. US gains from PNTR are positive but 30 percent smaller than under constant returns. |
| Keywords: | import liberalization;China shock;trade policy;scale economies;comparative advantage |
| JEL: | F12 F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127595 |
| By: | Wu, Yongyang; Duan, Yuxin; Pan, Cong; Xu, Wenyan; Xuan, Zhichong; Zhao, Qiran |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of China's High-Standard Farmland Construction (HSFC) program on machinery input costs in rural agriculture, a crucial issue for mechanization and productivity. Using household-level survey data from 2019 to 2022, we employ a two-way fixed effects model to assess the policy’s effectiveness. Our findings indicate that HSFC significantly reduces machinery input costs per unit of land by improving infrastructure, particularly through land consolidation and field road construction. The reduction in costs is more pronounced in major grain-producing regions and areas with stronger fiscal capacities. The study contributes to the literature by identifying mechanisms that enhance agricultural efficiency through infrastructure investment, providing new empirical evidence for the role of public investment in improving agricultural mechanization. Furthermore, the results suggest that HSFC’s cost-reducing effects are contingent on regional conditions, highlighting the importance of tailored policies in promoting mechanization. This research offers insights into policy design that could improve the long-term sustainability of agricultural productivity. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404386 |
| By: | Long, Weitong; Zhu, Xueqin; Hou, Yong; Peña-Lévano, Luis M.; Garcia-Covarrubias, Luis; Boy, Karl-Friedrich |
| Abstract: | Shifting to healthier diets and afforestation can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance carbon sequestration. However, when implemented unilaterally by China, these measures may support domestic carbon neutrality while triggering emission leakages through trade-induced land-use changes. Using an integrated environmental- economic model, we found that China’s proposed dietary shift towards lower meat and higher dairy consumption may induce 14 Mha of additional agricultural land use abroad and cause 364 Tg CO₂-eq of emission leakage, almost four times the domestic mitigation. Similarly, China’s afforestation policy may displace food production abroad, resulting in 16 Mha of additional agricultural land use and 424 Tg CO₂-eq of emission leakage, exceeding its domestic mitigation. Such leakages may undermine the feasibility of the 2 °C climate target and necessitate more stringent mitigation in non-agricultural sectors. Combined with the 2 °C climate target, China’s dietary shift and afforestation policies may amplify insecurity and gross domestic product losses than the 2 °C climate target alone. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404467 |
| By: | Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos (World Bank); Vazquez, Emmanuel (Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS), Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata); Winkler, Hernan (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the local effects of the 2018–19 U.S.-China trade disruptions on Mexico. Combining detailed municipal-level customs data with U.S. tariff schedules, it estimates that municipalities with greater export concentration in products targeted by U.S. tariffs on China (hereafter, tariff exposure) experienced significantly larger nearshoring dividends. An increase of 1 percent in tariff exposure led to a 4.3 percent increase in municipality-level exports to the United States. These export gains translated into broad labor market improvements: total labor income rose by 5.6 percent for each 1 percent increase in tariff exposure, driven by job creation rather than wage growth as average earnings remained unchanged. Beyond job quantity, the shock improved job quality: each 1 percent increase in tariff exposure reduced labor informality by 0.25 percentage points, with newly created jobs disproportionately being formal. Effects were driven primarily by manufacturing but extended to services through local spillovers. The findings indicate that trade policy changes between major economies can significantly reshape the spatial distribution of economic activity and the quantity and quality of jobs in third-party countries. |
| Keywords: | international trade, labor markets, trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F16 L60 O19 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18791 |
| By: | Mehrotra, Santosh (Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | China and India embarked on planned development at roughly the same time and had comparable per capita incomes about four decades ago. Yet they have since diverged sharply in economic growth, human development and inequality. This paper examines the sources of that divergence. It first analyses the contrasting trajectories of agricultural growth. Following agrarian reforms after 1980, China sustained much faster agricultural growth, strengthening rural incomes and domestic demand. India's agrarian transformation remained incomplete, with lasting consequences for growth and structural change. The paper then argues that deeper institutional differences explain the widening gap. It examines divergences in governance, state capability and administrative capacity, investment in education, and growth strategies, particularly the extent to which growth generated productive employment. These factors shaped both the pace and inclusiveness of development. The paper concludes by showing how differences in agricultural transformation, state capability, human capital formation and employment-intensive growth contributed to the contrasting trajectories of inequality in the two countries. |
| Keywords: | China, India, state capability, structural transformation, human development, inequality |
| JEL: | O11 O15 O53 H11 D63 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18779 |
| By: | Xing, Xianghui; Dai, Hongwei; Zhou, Yiwei; Lan, Zhou; Wu, Xinyue; Jiang, Jie; Cao, Ling |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence technologies are rapidly penetrating and reshaping the labor market. As a result, perceived AI substitution risk among workers has become an important issue affecting employment stability and social well-being. Using data from the Chinese Social Survey 2023, this study empirically examines the determinants of workers' perceived AI substitution risk and explores group heterogeneity. The results show that the perceived unemployment risk, number of children, and unemployment insurance are significantly positively associated with perceived AI substitution risk. In contrast, gender (Female = 0, Male = 1), age, perceived life difficulties, overall job satisfaction, job skill level, perceived socioeconomic status, and ethnicity (non-Han ethnicity = 0, Han ethnicity = 1) have a significant negative impact. The mediation analysis indicated that job satisfaction and perceived socioeconomic status reduced perceived AI substitution risk by lowering individuals' subjective evaluations of perceived unemployment risk. The heterogeneity analysis further shows that the perceived unemployment risk functions as a common core pressure source across groups. Its effect strength is constrained by the degree of technological penetration and occupational stability. Meanwhile, the influence of individual characteristics and resource endowments follows a threat appraisal-stress response pathway, with significant differences across geographical regions, urban-rural attributes, and work patterns. This study provides empirical evidence from China and offers a new analytical perspective for countries seeking to address employment anxiety triggered by technological substitution, optimize education and skills training systems, and maintain stability in the global labor market. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence substitution;perceived artificial intelligence substitution risk;determinants |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140342 |
| By: | Zou, Tao; Gong, Yundan |
| Abstract: | We study how third-country supply chains reconfigure under the 2018-2019 US tariff escalation on Chinese goods, using comprehensive transaction-level trade and domestic business-to-business records for firms in Vietnam. Exploiting exogenous variation in firm-level tariff exposure constructed from pre-treatment export portfolios, we find that both value-added processing and transshipment contribute to triangular trade through Vietnam, but activate on distinct timelines: transshipment responds immediately while processing activates mainly after the May 2019 escalation signals tariff permanence. Supply chain network adjustment precedes trade value expansion, with upstream Chinese supplier diversification beginning first, local intermediate sourcing activating later, and downstream US buyer adjusting last. Opening the third-country supply chain interior, we show that over half of the tariff-induced local sourcing expansion channels Chinese intermediate content, and that local sourcing from China-embedded local suppliers responds at 3.2 times the magnitude of independent local suppliers. These results indicate that global value chains relocation to Vietnam activated processing capacity but extended rather than displaced Chinese supply chain influence in the third country. |
| Keywords: | Trade war, Supply chain reconfiguration, Local sourcing, Vietnam |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F23 L14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kcgwps:342501 |
| By: | Barwick, Panle; Chen, Siyu; Fu, Chao; Li, Teng |
| Abstract: | Concerns about excessive mobile phone use among youth are mounting. We present estimates of both behavioral and contextual peer effects, along with comprehensive evidence on how students' own and their peers' app usage affect academic performance, physical health, and labor market outcomes. Our analysis draws on administrative data from a Chinese university covering three student cohorts over four years. We exploit random roommate assignments, differential exposure to a policy shock (gaming restrictions for minors), and differential exposure to a discrete event (the introduction of a blockbuster video game) for identification. App usage is contagious: a one s.d. increase in roommates' in-college app usage raises own usage by 5.8%. High app usage is harmful across all measured outcomes. A one s.d. increase in app usage reduces GPAs by 36.2% of a within-cohort-major s.d. and lowers wages by 2.3%. Roommates' app usage reduces a student's GPAs and wages through both disruptions and behavioral spillovers, generating a total negative effect that exceeds half the magnitude of the impact from the student's own app usage. Extending China's three-hour-per-week gaming restriction for minors to college students would boost their initial wages by 0.9%. High-frequency GPS and app usage data show that heavy app users spend less time in study halls, are more frequently late or absent from class, and get less sleep. |
| JEL: | E24 D91 I23 L82 L86 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19579 |
| By: | Jin-Chuan Duan; Mr. Dimitrios Laliotis; Ms. Wei Sun |
| Abstract: | This paper examines macrofinancial linkages between property developers, financial institutions, and macroeconomic outcomes in China. Using a parsimonious vector autoregressive (VAR) model enabled by a machine learning algorithm, it quantifies how idiosyncratic shocks can propagate and be amplified across sectors, with potential implications for financial stability. Stress originating from privately owned developers and regionally focused financial institutions—though relatively limited in scale—can generate persistent spillovers through lending relationships, common exposures, shared markets, and changes in market sentiment. A decline in property prices may undermine investment, weaken consumer confidence, and adversely affect the health of both the property and financial sectors, thereby disrupting financial intermediation and weighing on broader economic growth. Policy considerations should take into account these feedback loops. Market- and exposure-based tools can be helpful for monitoring macrofinancial linkages and assessing the transmission of shocks. |
| Keywords: | Macrofinancial linkage; property development; financial system; machine learning; model selection |
| Date: | 2026–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/134 |
| By: | Harrison, Ann |
| Abstract: | History is full of examples of successful and unsuccessful industrial policies. The critical question is not whether to engage in such policies but how they are designed and implemented. Industrial policy can work, but only with strict adherence to sensible guidelines based on sound economic practice, political economy considerations, and historical context. Reviewing previous research and focusing on evidence drawn from China and India, I argue that any successful industrial policy requires the following: (1) a successful plan to correct a market failure; (2) consultation with the private sector; (3) enhancement of competition; and (4) a sunset clause permitting the policy to conclude. |
| Keywords: | Industrial policy; Strategic trade and industrial policy |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19693 |
| By: | Zhang, Xinyue; Zheng, Hongyun; Li, Jingyi |
| Abstract: | While promoting small-scale grain farmers’ market participation has been widely recognized as an effective way to improve farm performance, little is known about how different marketing channels affect production and sales outcomes. This study categorizes grain farmers’ marketing channel choices by the type of buyers they sell to: farmgate (door-to-door), non-farmgate informal, and non-farmgate formal channels. We examine the effects of grain farmers’ marketing channel choice on chemical input use, production costs, and sales behavior. Using a multivalued treatment effects (MVTE) framework with the inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) estimator, we address selection bias and estimate open-access data from the 2020 China Rural Revitalization Survey. Results show that, compared with selling through the farmgate channel, selling through the non-farmgate informal channel significantly increases sales frequency. However, compared to selling through both farmgate and non-farmgate informal channels, selling through the non-farmgate formal channel significantly reduces fertilizer and pesticide expenditures, production costs, and sale frequency, with these patterns varying by distance to town. This indicates that formal marketing channels may encourage more efficient input use and cost-saving practices, but involve fewer transactions. This study provides evidence for designing marketoriented policies that promote inclusive commercialization among small-scale grain farmers. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404705 |
| By: | Xiong, Jian (School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing, China); Yin, Wei (School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing, China); Li, Guangzi (Institute of Finance and Banking, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China); Zhou, Peng (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the underexplored role of China’s policy bank loans as a countercyclical tool for stabilizing economic fluctuations, complementing conventional fiscal and monetary policies. Utilizing panel data on Chinese listed companies from 2005 to 2023, we demonstrate that policy bank loans effectively mitigate the adverse impacts of economic downturns and ensure corporate value stability during periods of contraction. The research further identifies that the countercyclical effect of these loans is influenced by both internal factors, including political and economic stability and tax revenue growth, as well as external factors such as global financial uncertainty. Additionally, the study highlights the complementary role of policy bank loans alongside conventional stabilization interventions, strengthening the combined capacity to enhance macroeconomic stability. |
| Keywords: | Policy banks; Countercyclical; Listed firms; Economic stability |
| JEL: | G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2026/11 |
| By: | Zheng, Linyi; Zhang, Jiahao; Zhao, Hanqi; Su, Liufang |
| Abstract: | Tenure security exerts a profound influence on factor allocation efficiency and the behavioral decisions of economic agents. Nevertheless, few scholars have examined the quantitative relationship between land tenure insecurity and farmers’ cropland abandonment behavior—despite the fact that rural China is currently confronting both challenges concurrently. To address this research gap, this study adopts a panel random effects model, utilizing three waves of panel data from the China Rural Household Panel Survey (2015–2019), and measures land tenure insecurity through farmers' perceived security regarding land certification and titling, to empirically investigate the impact of land tenure insecurity on cropland abandonment. The results show that land tenure insecurity significantly exacerbates cropland abandonment. The primary reason is that land tenure insecurity suppresses agricultural capital investment, reduces agricultural labor input, and impedes land transfer, thereby accelerating the spread of cropland abandonment. However, the adverse effect is more pronounced among higher-income farmers and older farmers, while lower-income farmers and younger farmers remain largely unaffected. Furthermore, formal institutions—exemplified by land certification—help mitigate the adverse effects of land tenure insecurity on cropland abandonment, while informal institutions, represented by village regulations, prove ineffective. These findings hold significant reference value for developing countries grappling with the dual challenges of land tenure insecurity and cropland abandonment. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404408 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2026–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/214 |
| By: | Kranzusch, Peter; Pahnke, André |
| Abstract: | Angesichts der internationalen Krisen und Handelsstreitigkeiten der letzten Jahre drängt die Wirtschaftspolitik in Deutschland und der Europäischen Union auf eine stärkere regionale Differenzierung der Absatz- und Beschaffungswege von Unternehmen. Dies richtet sich insbesondere auf die Handelsbeziehungen mit China, einem der bedeutendsten Handelspartner Deutschlands. Allerdings ist bisher keine substanzielle Veränderung im Außenhandelsvolumen mit China festzustellen. Vielmehr hat die deutsche Wirtschaft ihre Außenhandelsbeziehungen mit China und Taiwan intensiviert. Diese Entwicklung ist maßgeblich von Industrieund Großunternehmen getrieben. |
| Abstract: | In light of the international crises and trade disputes of recent years, economic policymakers in Germany and the European Union are advocating for greater regional diversification in companies' sales and procurement channels. This applies in particular to trade relations with China, one of Germany's most important trading partners. However, no substantial change in the volume of foreign trade with China has been observed to date. Rather, the German economy is intensifying its foreign trade relations with China and Taiwan. This development is largely driven by industrial and large enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Außenhandel, Direktinvestitionen, KMU, China, Taiwan, Foreign Trade, Foreign direct investments, SMEs |
| JEL: | D22 F14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifmduf:342539 |
| By: | Li, Hongning; Lin, Wen |
| Abstract: | Using a high-frequency transaction panel dataset from China’s largest instant retail platform, we investigate the effects of temperature shocks on online consumption. We find that extreme heat significantly increases online sales of agri-food products: relative to the reference bin, each additional day with an average temperature exceeding 27°C leads to a 2.94% increase in agri-food monthly sales. Extreme heat primarily enhances the instant purchase of perishable necessities, which exhibit stronger channel substitution effects, whereas storable staples exhibit little change, implying a consumption shift from offline to online channels for such perishable products. Prices at the subproduct level remain stable under high temperatures, indicating that the growth in online consumption is driven by increased consumer demand for online purchases rather than price adjustments. Enhanced health risk awareness and reduced offline travel behavior provide further evidence for this channel substitution mechanism. Additional analyses reveal that this effect is more pronounced in regions with higher internet penetration and more frequent heat exposure, while convenient transportation mitigates it. By contrast, low temperatures exert little effect, likely because spoilage risks are lower and offline stockpiling is easier in cold weather. Our findings underscore that instant retail provides a new adaptation margin to temperature shocks and have significant policy implications for ensuring access to essential products during hot weather. |
| Keywords: | Marketing |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404537 |
| By: | Pandey, Aarni; Ganjoo, Ananta |
| Abstract: | The rapid proliferation of digital platforms has fundamentally disrupted the competitive landscape, exposing the structural inadequacies of traditional antitrust reforms that were designed for industrial-era markets. This paper examines the evolving intersection of antitrust law, technological advancement and innovation policy in the context of modern digital economies. Drawing on a comprehensive review of regulatory developments across major jurisdictions, including the United States, the European Union, China and India, the study analyses how legacy antitrust doctrines have struggled to address the complex characteristics of digital markets, including network effects, data-driven market power, zero-price services, and winner-takes-all dynamics. The paper identifies a critical tension at the heart of digital antitrust reform: the imperative to prevent monopolistic entrenchment by dominant gatekeepers, while simultaneously preserving the conditions for dynamic innovation that drives technological progress. Through an analysis of four core themes: the Regulation of Antitrust Laws in Digital Economies, Impact of Antitrust reforms on innovation, Evolution of Antitrust reforms with technological advancement and What adaptive regulation looks like, this paper constructs a multi-layered understanding of what antitrust reform looks like. The findings suggest that ex-ante regulatory instruments, such as the EU Digital Markets Act, represent a paradigm shift from reactive, litigation-based enforcement towards forward-looking structural obligations on designated gatekeepers. While such mechanisms offer greater predictability and speed, they also risk over-regulation and innovation deterrence if not calibrated with precision. The paper argues for a hybrid regulatory architecture, one that combines robust ex-ante obligations with flexible ex-post enforcement, interoperability standards, and evidence-based threshold criteria to achieve a sustainable equilibrium between competitive markets and an innovation-enabling environment. |
| Date: | 2026–07–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:lawarc:dk8sp_v1 |
| By: | Liu, Mengyu; Jin, Yana; Hu, Wuyang |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how information and framing shape consumers’ preferences of sustainability attributes in China’s pork market, and whether information-induced preference shifts persist over time. We implement a discrete choice experiment with pork consumers in Beijing and Shanghai (N = 887), varying price and three attributes, carbon footprint, water pollution, and animal welfare. The experiment embeds three randomized interventions designed to map onto distinct behavioral channels: child-related framing, health warning-style tips displayed within choice sets, and a two-stage design that introduces a time gap between information exposure and the choice tasks. Mixed logit estimates show targeted preference shifts consistent with these channels. Child-related framing reduces price sensitivity and strengthens aversion to high water pollution. Health tips increase aversion to low animal welfare, with effects concentrated among respondents with weaker baseline healthy-eating habits. By contrast, carbon-footprint valuations decay as the information-to-choice gap lengthens, suggesting limited durability for more abstract attributes. WTP estimates imply economically meaningful premia for sustainability improvements, particularly for reducing water pollution. Overall, the results provide experimentally identified evidence on when information interventions shift multi-attribute sustainability valuations, for whom, and how durable those shifts are, with implications for the timing and design of sustainability labeling and nudging policies. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404463 |
| By: | Strine, Joshua; Mallory, Mindy; Foster, Kenneth |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how price discovery between soybean crushing plants and river terminals evolved across three price regimes defined by the 2018–2020 US-China Trade War. Using daily cash prices from 37 crushing plants and 81 river terminals across Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri, we estimate which type of local buyer leads price adjustments in Midwestern soybean markets. We find that price discovery shifted from crushing plants toward river terminals over the study period, with the largest shift occurring after the trade war. Crushing plants have become persistent and less price-reactive buyers due to steady demand from the renewable diesel boom. River terminals, which are exposed to increasingly volatile global export demand, now lead local price adjustments. During the US-China Trade War, all cash prices lost their long-run relationship with nearby futures prices. The loss of long-run price relationships suggests that hedging with soybean futures may have been less effective and more volatile during the trade war, as the cash-futures relationship was disrupted. Following the trade war, the contribution of nearby futures to local price discovery declined, indicating that local delivery points are playing a larger role in price formation. The decrease in price discovery from futures markets coincides with a reduction in daily futures trading volume. These findings have implications for producers, grain merchandisers, and risk managers who rely on local price signals and futures markets for marketing and hedging decisions. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:asea26:404813 |
| By: | Yang, Chenyujing |
| Abstract: | Digital technologies have profoundly transformed traditional factor allocation and opened new possibilities for improving agricultural resource use efficiency. However, in smallholder-dominated production systems, agricultural digital transformation is not merely a technical issue, but also a matter of institutional and social embedding. In this context, comparing the differential effects of policy support and market-oriented socialized services on farmers’ adoption of digital technologies is critical for understanding the institutional logic underlying technology diffusion. Drawing on the S-O-R framework, this study integrates the Technology Acceptance Model and the Technology Readiness Index to construct a decision-making model of farmers’ digital technology adoption, which is empirically tested using structural equation modeling. The results show that policy support significantly enhances farmers’ adoption intention but has limited impact on actual adoption behavior. In contrast, market-oriented socialized services, although not directly increasing adoption intention, effectively promote adoption behavior. Moreover, the effects of both policy and services are transmitted indirectly through the pathway of technology readiness and technology acceptance, revealing the psychological mechanisms through which external drivers influence farmers’ behavior. Finally, advantage-integrated farmers are more responsive to government support, whereas resource-constrained farmers rely more heavily on socialized services. By comparing policy-driven and service-embedded approaches, this study not only advances theoretical understanding of digital technology diffusion from individual cognition toward institutional embedding, but also provides a contextually adaptive perspective on farmers’ adoption behavior, offering practical guidance for future policy design and service implementation. |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404433 |
| By: | Mr. JaeBin Ahn; Lorenzo Rotunno; Michele Ruta |
| Abstract: | We study how U.S. tariff hikes in 2025 have transmitted to import prices. Consistent with recent evidence, we find that duty-exclusive import prices at the variety (country-product) level do not adjust to tariffs, implying full pass-through to duty-inclusive prices at the border. At the product level, however, duty-exclusive aggregate import prices decline significantly with tariff increases. We show that this product-level decline is driven by within-product reallocation toward lower-priced sources—stronger in products facing larger tariff hikes—and operates primarily through the entry of lower-priced varieties and the exit of higher-priced ones. Estimates of variety appeal indicate that part of this reallocation reflects shifts toward lower-quality varieties, a channel that is also present in the 2018–19 U.S.–China tariff episode. These reallocation effects carry implications for consumer welfare and productivity through the quality of imported goods and inputs. |
| Date: | 2026–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/149 |
| By: | Chen, Shuo; Taheripour, Farzad; Baldos, Uris Lantz; Zhuang, Qianlai; Yuan, Ye; Benavidez-Brouk, Lauren |
| Abstract: | Global pastureland covers about one-third of the Earth’s land surface and has undergone significant changes in the past decades. Understanding the spatial distribution and trends of pastureland is essential for addressing environmental and food security challenges as well as supporting sustainable development. This study reconstructs pastureland maps at 500m spatial resolution based on the MODIS MCD12Q1 V6 land cover product and the Gridded Livestock World v3 (GLW) dataset. We further analyzed the trend, variability, and distribution in pastureland from 2001 to 2020. Overall, the pastureland area in this study is consistent with FAOSTAT, HYDE, and HILDA datasets. In selected countries with large pastureland areas, the pastureland in Australia and China contracted while it expanded in the United States over the period 2001 to 2020. For Brazil, pastureland area initially grew and then declined in later years. We find that pastureland in the United States, Canada, China, Australia, and Sub-Saharan Africa largely remained stable over this period. In the South of America and Russia, it is unstable, which indicates frequent conversion of pastureland into other land uses. This reconstruction of global pastureland at 500m level is promising for accurately capturing the spatial heterogeneity of pastureland and further improving our understanding of its impact on renewable fuels policies, sustainable development targets, and environmental issues. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404741 |