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on China |
| By: | Hanming Fang; Xian Gu; Hanyin Yan; Wu Zhu |
| Abstract: | We develop a high-precision classifier to measure artificial intelligence (AI) patents by fine-tuning PatentSBERTa on manually labeled data from the USPTO’s AI Patent Dataset. Our classifier substantially improves the existing USPTO approach, achieving 97.0% precision, 91.3% recall, and a 94.0% F1 score, and it generalizes well to Chinese patents based on citation and lexical validation. Applying it to granted U.S. patents (1976–2023) and Chinese patents (2010–2023), we document rapid growth in AI patenting in both countries and broad convergence in AI patenting intensity and subfield composition, even as China surpasses the United States in recent annual patent counts. The organization of AI innovation nevertheless differs sharply: U.S. AI patenting is concentrated among large private incumbents and established hubs, whereas Chinese AI patenting is more geographically diffuse and institutionally diverse, with larger roles for universities and state-owned enterprises. For listed firms, AI patents command a robust market-value premium in both countries. Cross-border citations show continued technological interdependence rather than decoupling, with Chinese AI inventors relying more heavily on U.S. frontier knowledge than vice versa. |
| JEL: | C55 G14 O31 O33 O34 O57 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35022 |
| By: | Qian, Zeyi (Clark University); Suzuki, Kensuke (Clark University); Zhang, Junfu (Clark University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines sectoral growth patterns across Chinese provinces during the country’s economic takeoff in the early 2000s, following major policy reforms including trade liberalization, infrastructure expansion, business climate improvements, and relaxed rural-to-urban migration restrictions. We develop a multi-sector, multi-region spatial general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms á la Melitz-Chaney to analyze how these reforms interacted to shape regional economic growth. We quantify the model for the Chinese economy and conduct counterfactuals to identify the key mechanisms driving regional development. We find that reductions in trade costs and lowered entry barriers facilitate firm entry and intensify competition. Together, these factors shape regional specialization and China’s overall economic growth. Our decomposition exercises reveal that lowered business entry costs played a larger role than the reduction in trade costs in promoting the growth of real wages, especially in inland provinces. This operates through a selection effect, where more productive firms expand and force the least productive ones to exit, and through increased variety, which effectively lowers the price index. |
| Keywords: | regional economic growth, trade costs, entry costs, Melitz-Chaney model, China’s manufacturing |
| JEL: | F12 R12 L60 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18507 |
| By: | Yang, Di; Acharya, Yubraj |
| Abstract: | Background China’s fast economic growth has been accompanied by rapid urbanization and urban renewal. Millions of households have experienced housing demolition and relocation (“chaiqian”) to vacate the land for urban renewal and infrastructure projects. Housing demolition can be a major life disruption and place a considerable burden on both mental and physical health. Meanwhile, replacement housing, provided as compensation for demolition, can improve housing quality and access to care, thus improving health. Methods Using data from the China Family Panel Studies and an event study model with a staggered difference-in-differences framework, we examined the effects of housing demolition on individuals’ medical utilization in the year of demolition, as well as two and four years afterward. Medical utilization was measured as whether an individual uses medical services (incurring medical expenditure) and the amount of medical expenditure if using medical services. We also explored the effects of housing demolition on health measures, namely self-rated health and mental health status, as potential mechanisms through which housing demolition affects medical utilization. Results Overall, housing demolition did not affect whether an individual used medical services. However, conditional on using medical services, housing demolition increased the amount of medical expenditure by approximately 1, 639 CNY (234 USD) two years after demolition. We did not find evidence that housing demolition is associated with self-rated health or mental health status. Moreover, we found urban-rural heterogeneity in the effects of housing demolition. Rural residents have a higher likelihood of using medical services and higher medical expenditure two years after demolition, while urban residents have a lower likelihood of using medical services four years after demolition. Conclusions Our findings highlight the importance of housing as a social determinant of health and contribute to the growing literature on development-induced displacement. The increased medical expenditure after housing demolition calls for a multidimensional evaluation of compensation for housing demolition. The compensation should consider both the loss of property itself and other associated adverse impacts, such as on health and medical care, to fully offset the burden of housing demolition, especially for rural residents who are particularly vulnerable after housing demolition. |
| Keywords: | housing demolition; development-induced displacement; medical utilization; medical expenditure; self-rated health; mental health; REF fund 2025/2026 |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130937 |
| By: | Vanessa Alviarez; Cheng Chen; Nitya Pandalai-Nayar; Liliana Varela; Kei-Mu Yi; Hongyong Zhang |
| Abstract: | We study how multinational corporations (MNCs) shape firm-level and aggregate structural transformation. Using confidential microdata from Japan and exploiting a quasi-exogenous reform that expanded foreign investment opportunities in China, we assess empirically how this reform affected employment at firms in both the host country (China) and the home country (Japan). In liberalized industries, Japanese manufacturing affiliates in China expanded employment, while parent firms in Japan shifted out of manufacturing and into higher-value service activities, including R&D. To assess the broader relevance of this mechanism, we use microdata from several advanced and middle-income economies, and show that MNCs account for the majority of the middle-income countries' reallocation to manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | multinational firms; manufacturing employment; services employment; foreign direct investment liberalization |
| JEL: | F23 F60 |
| Date: | 2026–03–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:102970 |
| By: | Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Jouvanceau, Valentin; Eyquem, Aurélien |
| Abstract: | We study how trade wars propagate to countries that are not directly targeted. We develop a three-country New Keynesian model with trade in final and intermediate goods, incomplete asset markets, and asymmetric monetary regimes, and quantify the spillovers of the 2025 U.S.-China tariff escalation to the euro area. A bilateral U.S.-China trade war generates large and asymmetric welfare losses for the U.S. and China, while the euro area benefits temporarily from trade diversion. Once tariffs extend to euro-area goods, third-country welfare flips into losses and the Chinese downturn deepens. Welfare-maximizing retaliatory tariffs by the euro area deliver only modest domestic improvements, at the cost of large additional losses for the U.S. and China. Overall, the global incidence of trade policy is intrinsically multilateral: third-country gains under bilateral protectionism are short-lived, reverse once protection broadens, and cannot be inferred from two-country analysis. JEL Classification: F30, F40, F41 |
| Keywords: | protectionism, third-country effects, trade wars |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263213 |
| By: | Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Weitong Wang (School of Economics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, Liaoning 116025, China); Jing Yuan (School of Statistics, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, Shandong 264005, China) |
| Abstract: | Scientifically measuring intergenerational mobility (IGM) and comprehensively analyzing the effects of factors influencing IGM provide a theoretical basis to improve public policies. This paper measures the elasticity of IGM in China and investigates the interaction effects of macro and micro influencing factors using a nonparametric gradient boosting tree quantile regression model. The empirical results show that, first, the gradient boosting tree quantile regression model fits better than the linear quantile regression model, with particularly significant nonlinear characteristics among those with annual incomes between ¥30, 000 and ¥150, 000. The intergenerational income elasticity in China ranges from 0.1861 to 0.7026, indicating a clear ``strong at both ends and weak in the middle'' effect of parental income on offspring income. Second, intergenerational income mobility exhibits heterogeneity in both income and region, with significant differences in the income transmission process and degree of nonlinearity across different regions. Third, this paper specifically explores the IGM characteristics of the two income groups, revealing that the most significant influencing factors for achieving income stratification are economic growth, industrial optimization, intergenerational educational mobility, and wealth capital investment. Finally, this paper explores the poverty trap from the perspective of IGM, showing that in eastern regions, children from wealthy families may experience higher immobility or a wealth trap, while in other regions, children from impoverished families experience higher immobility or a poverty trap. |
| Keywords: | Gradient boosting tree quantile regression; Heterogeneity analysis; Intergenerational income mobility; Partial dependence; Random forest. |
| JEL: | J62 D63 C43 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202602 |
| By: | Xue, Melanie |
| Abstract: | This article explores the intellectual underpinnings of Qing fiscal conservatism, tracing its ideological roots to late Ming thinkers such as Wang Yangming, Huang Zongxi, and Gu Yanwu. These figures contributed to a tradition of governance that emphasized moral responsibility and institutional reform, which influenced the Qing dynasty’s efforts to protect the agrarian class from excessive taxation. By situating Qing fiscal conservatism within a broader historical and philosophical framework, this article offers additional perspectives on the relationship between ideology, governance, and law in late imperial China. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137830 |
| By: | Danqi Wei (Lanzhou University); Fayyaz Ahmad (Lanzhou University); Nabila Abid (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Amber Gul (Sichuan Agricultural University) |
| Abstract: | The advancement of renewable energy an essential stage toward achieving a low-carbon energy transition, with finance sector playing a significant role in this process. This study analyzes the impact of financial development on renewable energy technology innovation across 30 Chinese provinces from 2007 to 2019, focusing on key financial dimensions such as banks, bonds, stocks, and foreign direct investment. The research indicates that financial development significantly enhances innovation in renewable energy technology. Further heterogeneity analysis indicates that the inherent advantage of renewable energy resources impedes the pace of substitution for renewable energy technology innovation, while more market-oriented regions can more easily occupy the high value-added renewable energy technology innovation. The development pace of renewable energy technology innovation varies across regions, influenced by distinct renewable energy strategies. Foreign direct investment has produced contrary effects. The moderation test indicates that both investment-based and cost-based environmental regulations enhance the positive effect of financial capital on renewable energy technology innovation. The results establish a theoretical foundation for advancing renewable energy technology innovation and offer practical insights for facilitating the low-carbon transition in developing economies. |
| Keywords: | China, Environmental regulation, Renewable energy technology innovation, Financial development, Low carbon energy transition |
| Date: | 2025–03–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05568595 |
| By: | Francois de Soyres; Ece Fisgin; Mike Liu; Eva Van Leemput |
| Abstract: | China's trade surplus surged to a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, exceeding 6% of its GDP, marking a new milestone in its integration into, and dominance of, the global trading system. This development has attracted heightened attention from policymakers and analysts, not only because of the sheer size of the surplus, but also because of growing concerns about the distribution of global manufacturing, the persistence of global external imbalances, and the role of industrial policy interventions in shaping trade outcomes. |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:102993 |
| By: | Reda Cherif; Fuad Hasanov; Gary Xie |
| Abstract: | We propose an institutional architecture for the successful implementation of industrial policy inspired by the Asian Miracles—Japan, Korea, Taiwan Province of China, Singapore, and Hong Kong SAR. The key institutional arrangement is a leading agency, accumulating sector-specific knowledge through continuous experimentation and feedback from markets, to design the sector- and context-appropriate package of policies, which is a priori unknown, and coordinate its implementation. We also postulate a 4A model of institutional features of the leading agency: Ambition-Agency, Autonomy, Accountability, and Adaptability. We draw strong parallels with the rise of independent central banks, inferring concrete steps to achieve these characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Policy; Technology and Innovation Policy; Economic Growth; Institutions for Development; Planning Agencies; Asian Tigers. |
| Date: | 2026–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/063 |
| By: | Dugoua, Eugenie; Noailly, Joëlle |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the patterns and mechanisms of global clean technology diffusion over the last two decades. We document four stylized facts: uneven sectoral progress favoring power and light transport; China’s dominance in innovation and manufacturing; the role of modularity in driving cost declines; and limited adoption in developing economies. Through case studies of solar, electric vehicles, and hydrogen, we analyze how policy and infrastructure enable scale. Finally, we assess emerging challenges for the next phase of diffusion, including critical mineral constraints, artificial intelligence, and geopolitical fragmentation. |
| Keywords: | clean technology diffusion; climate change mitigation; renewable energy; industrial policy; solar photovoltaics; electric vehicles; hydrogen |
| JEL: | O33 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137824 |