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on China |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; You, Zhuoying |
| Abstract: | Few studies have examined the economic consequences of deploying artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics in less-developed cities, where policies have often failed. To address this gap, we analyse a panel of 270 Chinese cities (2009–2019) using OLS, IV-2SLS, and quantile regression techniques. We find that AI and robotics significantly promote technological innovation in China, with especially pronounced implications for cities at or below the technological frontier. These technologies also enhance the returns to science and technology (S&T) investment. Its novelty lies in framing AI and robotics as policy substitutes and tools for narrowing innovation divides among Chinese cities. |
| Keywords: | AI; robotics; technological innovation; Chinese cities |
| JEL: | O31 O33 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137040 |
| By: | Mani, Sunil |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the stark divergence in industrial robot adoption between China and India, benchmarking their trajectories in terms of scale, density, and sectoral and task diversity. Employing a three-factor analytical framework - labour market pressures, industrial structure, and government policy - the study explains China's rapid, state-orchestrated automation, which has bolstered export competitiveness despite rising wages. In contrast, India's adoption remains incremental and concentrated, constrained by its labour-abundant economy and less activist policy stance. The analysis reveals distinct implications: China enhances economic resilience but faces social risks from workforce displacement, while India preserves employment stability at the cost of global competitiveness and productivity. The findings underscore the critical need for policy realignment in both nations to harness the benefits of automation while mitigating its socioeconomic costs. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Robotics, Automation, China, India, Technological Divergence, Industrial Policy |
| JEL: | J24 O33 O14 L52 O53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iedlwp:336697 |
| By: | Bruno Cavani; Christopher Clayton; Amanda Dos Santos; Matteo Maggiori; Jesse Schreger |
| Abstract: | This paper uses microdata on U.S. mutual fund and ETF portfolios from SEC Form NPORT to study American investment in Chinese Renminbi (RMB)–denominated bonds. We show that, even as total foreign holdings of Chinese bonds rebounded in 2024, U.S. holdings of RMB bonds fell sharply and that most of this decline reflects funds exiting RMB positions entirely. These patterns point to a shift in the composition of China’s foreign investor base away from U.S. institutional investors and illustrate how publicly available microdata can inform work on international currency use. |
| JEL: | F3 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34792 |
| By: | Yan Hu (School of Economics, University of Edinburgh); Stephan Maurer (School of Economics, University of Edinburgh) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study this question using the historical example of China’s first modern bureaucratic organization, the Chinese Maritime Customs Service. Drawing on newly digitized personnel records from 1876-1911, we first show that the Chinese clerks employed by the service were predominantly Cantonese. Using the plausibly exogenous transfers of clerks across stations, we then estimate that a non-Cantonese (minority) clerk benefited significantly from meeting at least one colleague from his same province and dialect. Such connections led to faster promotion and a 5.6% salary increase, with even stronger effects when meeting a clerk who was either senior or of high quality. |
| Keywords: | Chinese Maritime Customs Service, social connections, wages, promotion, minorities. |
| JEL: | J15 J31 J45 N35 N75 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:edn:esedps:325 |
| By: | Raya Das (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Sanchit Gupta (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ashok Gulati |
| Abstract: | Placing India's experience in the global context, the report shows that China remains the dominant producer of fisheries, accounting for 39.7 per cent of global production in the triennium ending (TE) 2023, followed by Indonesia (10.1 per cent) and India (7.1 per cent). India's fisheries production reached 19.5 MMT in FY 2025 comparable to China’s production levels in the early 1990s, highlighting both progress and untapped potential (FAO, 2025, latest data available). Over the past two decades, inland fisheries production in India has increased more than four-fold, from 3.21 MMT in 2002–03 to 14.7 MMT in 2024–25. India ranks third in total fisheries production but second in inland aquaculture, after China. Despite ranking second globally in inland aquaculture, India accounts for only about 15 per cent of global production, compared to China's dominant 56 per cent share in value, indicating a significant gap in productivity and scale. Frozen shrimp has emerged as the single most important driver of India’s fisheries exports, while aquaculture growth remains spatially concentrated—particularly in Andhra Pradesh, which contributes 34 per cent of inland fisheries production and 44 per cent of national fisheries GVA in 2023–24. The uneven regional spread of aquaculture raises the policy challenge of replicating this cluster model across other states. |
| Keywords: | Fishries Production-India, Crop Agriculatur, Aquaculature, Farmers |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:26-r-01 |
| By: | Bai Yu; Li Yanjun; Liu Xinyan |
| Abstract: | Little is known about the historical origins of political instability, and systematic empirical evidence remains limited. This paper addresses this gap by examining the historical determinants of political instability through the lens of the millennia-long centralized authoritarian monarchy in imperial China. Exploiting proximity to imperial capitals as a proxy for the strength of centralized statehood, we show that counties historically exposed to stronger and more persistent state penetration exhibit significantly lower levels of political instability today, as reflected in a lower incidence of anti-government protests. Our results further suggest that cultural transmission, rather than sustained development, demographic change, or institutional continuity, is the primary channel through which the legacy of long-defunct institutions endures. |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:79 |
| By: | Ying Chen; Paul Cheshire; You-Sin Wang; Xiangqing Wang |
| Abstract: | We study how technological innovation has transformed the valuation of consumption services, using the sudden national expansion of food delivery services (FDS) in China as a natural experiment. Using a Bartik-style instrumental variable strategy that interacts national FDS growth with pre-existing restaurant density, we estimate the capitalization of delivery-accessible restaurants into Beijing housing prices. An additional 100 delivery-accessible restaurants raise housing prices by approximately 3 percent. Effects are strongest near the city center, declining by 0.15 percentage points per kilometer from the CBD, consistent with higher adoption rates and time valuations among central residents. Beyond quantity, households also value cuisine diversity. Unlike ride-sharing platforms, which reduce commuting costs and flatten the urban rent gradient, FDS unpacked the food and menu choice element of the restaurant experience, allowing this to be traded as a separate service. By reducing travel costs for consumption rather than commuting, FDS amplifies existing urban price gradients, disproportionately benefits central residents and demonstrates the continuing importance of consumption services in delivering differential welfare in cities. |
| Keywords: | food delivery services, housing markets, urban amenities, platform technology, China |
| Date: | 2026–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2151 |
| By: | Pansong Jiang; Donglan Zha; Qian Chen; Jaume Freire González |
| Abstract: | The carbon rebound effect, a phenomenon that usually accompanies improvements in energy efficiency, is frequently observed in households. To mitigate the household carbon rebound effect, the removal of fossil fuel subsidies has emerged as a potential strategy. This paper aims to systematically simulate the consequences of removing such a subsidy to inform evidence-based policy-making. We develop an analytical framework that facilitates a detailed investigation of changes in the prices of various goods and services consumed by residents after the removal of fossil fuel subsidies, as well as the main sources of household carbon rebound effect (CRE). Moreover, we examine the extent to which the removal of fossil fuel subsidies can counteract the rebound effect. Our findings indicate that rebound-driven fossil fuel consumption is the primary contributor to the total CRE. Meanwhile, consumption in the 'residence' category is the dominant source of the indirect CRE. We further show that removing all fossil fuel subsidies could totally offset the CRE in Chinese households. A notable urban-rural heterogeneity is observed. The subsidy removal for oil and natural gas yields the strongest mitigation effect on CRE in urban regions, whereas removing the oil subsidy proves most effective in rural areas. These results affirm the effectiveness of policies to remove fossil fuel subsidies. We conclude that reforming fossil fuel subsidies is a powerful tool to counteract the CRE, offering valuable insights not only for China but also for other developing countries with similar household consumption patterns. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions, fossil fuel subsidies, household consumption, input-output price model, Rebound effect |
| JEL: | H23 Q41 Q54 R15 R21 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1561 |
| By: | Megumi NAOI; Banri ITO; Naoto JINJI |
| Abstract: | We present some of the first evidence on how geopolitics shapes policy preferences of firms from a large-scale firm-level survey and experiment in Japan fielded during Trump’s 2025 tariff negotiations. The experiment varies scenarios of supply-chain disruption of critical goods across different causes (natural disasters vs. geopolitics) and the affected domestic actors (“your firm†vs. “Japanese citizens†) and elicits firms’ preferred policy among diplomatic negotiations, protectionism, and subsidies aimed at promoting diversification and domestic production. We find that geopolitical causes increase support for diplomatic solutions and reduce support for de-risking subsidies relative to the control condition (natural disaster). Contrary to the democratic peace conjecture, businesses support diplomacy regardless of alliance status or whether the disruption originates in the U.S. or China. A small minority (6%) support protectionism, especially when the disruption originates in a non-ally country or China. Overall, Japanese firms are not flag followers. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26016 |
| By: | Jing Cai |
| Abstract: | We introduce experimental variation in the insurance contracts offered to rice farmers in China to study how contract design affects insurance takeup. We compare a single-contract offering with menus that include multiple contracts differing in premiums and payouts. Expanding the contract menu substantially increases take-up, primarily through higher adoption of the basic, lowest-cost contract. Additional experimental variation in relative prices and information provision shows that these effects are driven by context effects arising from relative price comparisons within the menu, rather than information inference. The findings highlight contract menu design as an effective supply-side tool for expanding insurance coverage. |
| JEL: | D1 D14 G22 M31 O16 Q12 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34797 |
| By: | Driscoll, Daniel; Kiefel, Max; Larsen, Mathias |
| Keywords: | state capacity; industrial policy; international political economy; critical minerals; electric vehicles; climate change; geopolitics |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–02–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137142 |
| By: | Gilles Guiheux (CESSMA UMRD 245 - Centre d'études en sciences sociales sur les mondes africains, américains et asiatiques - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Bernard Thomann (IFRAE - Institut français de recherche sur l’Asie de l’Est - Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité) |
| Abstract: | This book is the culmination of advanced historical and sociological fieldwork in China, Japan, and France. It explores the evolution of working and living conditions in industrialized societies that have reached a certain level of wealth in a few decades, seeking to offer a more nuanced view on the profound changes experienced by the population in their daily lives. While high growth is generally associated with an increase in workers' standard of living, the high growth seen in China over the last 30 years has also produced situations of precariousness among the working class. This book questions the link between rapid growth and the generalized securitization of the salaried population, which has been assumed in contemporary sociological works, focusing not only on the evolution of labor and life conditions but also on how labor-relation actors and experts perceive the precariousness experienced in the context of high growth. |
| Date: | 2026–01–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05491259 |
| By: | Wu, Hangjian; Mentzakis, Emmanouil; Schaafsma, Marije |
| Abstract: | Air pollution is a globally recognised problem that causes premature deaths and economic loss. 95% of these premature deaths occur in developing countries, which often trade off investing in air quality improvement against economic growth. In these countries, economic growth may be prioritised by governments due to resource constraints, causing citizens to experience future air quality deterioration. Evidence from studies in developed countries suggests that social capital can be a potential impactful mediator urging the government to implement more pro-environmental policies. However, little empirical evidence exists for developing countries where environmental governance is often complicated by competing policy priorities. We investigated residents' preferences for clean air in Beijing, China, using a discrete choice experiment. In the experiment, attributes of air pollution were specified as either an improvement or a deterioration as a result of policy prioritisation. The effects of social capital (consisting of social trust, norms and networks) were examined by incorporating social capital indicators into a novel hybrid choice model. The results suggest that social capital was positively associated with individual preferences when air quality was projected to be improved (i.e., higher social capital leads to higher preferences for air quality improvement) as well as deteriorated (i.e., higher social capital leads to higher resistance to air quality deterioration). Our findings imply that in a society with high social capital, policymakers who prioritise economic growth at the expense of the environment are likely to cause considerable public welfare losses. |
| Keywords: | Air quality, discrete choice experiment, social capital, social trust, social norms, social networks |
| JEL: | D6 Q51 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iedlwp:336688 |
| By: | Andrea Ferrero; Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi; Martin Wolf; Luca Fornaro |
| Abstract: | We provide a framework that connects industrial policies to global imbalances and technological hegemony, and describe some empirical facts consistent with our model. We study the international spillovers triggered by industrial policies promoting high-tech sectors. Since high- tech goods and services are typically traded internationally, these policies boost the supply of tradable goods. Moreover, industrial policies lead to trade surpluses if the government pursues an unbalanced policy mix, such that domestic demand does not rise as much as supply. These surpluses are absorbed by the rest of the world, which in response runs trade deficits. Absent policy interventions, trade deficits reduce the competitiveness of the domestic tradable sector, stifling innovation and productivity growth. Innovation policies can help the rest of the world to mitigate these negative spillovers. |
| Keywords: | Capital flows, China shock, endogenous growth, high-tech, innovation, international spillovers, productivity, tariffs, trade imbalances |
| JEL: | E21 E22 E23 E44 F32 F43 O31 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1558 |
| By: | Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi; Andrea Ferrero; Luca Fornaro; Martin Wolf |
| Abstract: | We provide a framework that connects industrial policies to global imbalances and technological hegemony, and describe some empirical facts consistent with our model. We study the international spillovers triggered by industrial policies promoting high-tech sectors. Since high-tech goods and services are typically traded internationally, these policies boost the supply of tradable goods. Moreover, industrial policies lead to trade surpluses if the government pursues an unbalanced policy mix, such that domestic demand does not rise as much as supply. These surpluses are absorbed by the rest of the world, which in response runs trade deficits. Absent policy interventions, trade deficits reduce the competitiveness of the domestic tradable sector, stifling innovation and productivity growth. Innovation policies can help the rest of the world to mitigate these negative spillovers. |
| Keywords: | trade imbalances, productivity, international spillovers, tariffs, innovation, high-tech, China shock, endogenous growth, capital flows |
| JEL: | E21 E22 E23 E44 F32 F43 O31 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1939 |
| By: | Brunori, Paolo; Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Salas Rojo, Pedro |
| Abstract: | Researchers have sought to quantify the extent of inequality that is inherited from previous generations in multiple ways, including a large body of work on intergenerational mobility and inequality of opportunity. Many of the most frequently used approaches to measuring mobility or inequality of opportunity fit within a general framework which involves, as a first step, an estimation of the extent to which inherited personal characteristics can predict current incomes. We suggest a new method, within that broad framework, which is sensitive to differences across the entire conditional distributions of relevant population subgroups, rather than just in their means – a feature that makes it particularly well-suited to measuring ex-post inequality of opportunity. Sensitivity to differences in higher moments of the conditional distributions allow for a more comprehensive assessment of inherited inequality. We apply this approach to household income distributions in China, India, South Africa, and the United States, to illustrate how the method performs in different settings. We find that inherited inequality accounts for large shares of total inequality, from 36% in the United States to 59% in China, 62% in India, and 81% in South Africa. |
| Keywords: | inherited inequality; opportunity; mobility; transformation trees; China; India; South Africa; United States |
| JEL: | D31 D63 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137083 |
| By: | Étienne Lavenant; Bertrand Pluyaud |
| Abstract: | Since 2021, the gap between the Chinese trade surplus as measured by customs and the figure published in the balance of payments has widened markedly, raising questions over the reliability of the data. The divergence can be attributed to a change in the data sources used in the balance of payments, to take better account of international production arrangements. However, the change does not appear to have been applied to the years prior to 2021. <p> Depuis 2021, l’écart entre le solde commercial chinois mesuré par les douanes et celui publié dans la balance des paiements s’est sensiblement accru, ce qui a suscité des interrogations sur la fiabilité des données. Cet écart peut s’expliquer par un changement dans les sources utilisées en balance des paiements, afin de mieux prendre en compte les arrangements internationaux de fabrication. Mais ce changement ne semble pas avoir été appliqué sur les années antérieures à 2021. |
| Date: | 2026–01–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:econot:427 |
| By: | Kentaro KAWASAKI; Junko SHIMIZU |
| Abstract: | AMU (Asian Monetary Unit) is a database constructed by Ogawa and Shimizu (2005) and made available on the RIETI website. The AMU basket weights are based on intraregional trade shares and GDP. However, 20 years have passed since its introduction, and the economies of Asian countries, and particularly China's, have developed significantly. Consequently, it has become necessary to review the weights of the AMU basket. The purpose of this paper is to examine which combinations of current Asian currencies form an optimal currency area by using the G-PPP Model, and to explore other possibilities to construct a new basket weight for the AMU. Based on prior research, we confirmed that incorporating factors such as each country's financial openness, exchange rate policy, the share of invoice currencies in intra-regional trade, the share of intra-regional FDI, and the degree of production networks and value chains within the region yielded more balanced weights for the basket. This approach better reflects the current economic conditions in the region. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26015 |
| By: | Alexander C. Furnas; Ruixue Jia; Margaret E. Roberts; Dashun Wang |
| Abstract: | This study provides evidence that geopolitical considerations systematically shape funding evaluations of international collaboration proposals. We examine this dynamic in the consequential context of U.S.–China collaboration. Across two large-scale randomized experiments with U.S. policymakers and U.S.-based scientists, we find substantial and consistent penalties for proposals involving China-based collaborators. Policymakers express much greater unconditional support for proposals with Germany-based collaborators than for otherwise identical proposals with China-based collaborators (68% vs. 28%). Crucially, this penalty is not confined to policymakers: scientists themselves exhibit a sizeable 18 percentage-point gap (48% vs. 30%), despite professional expectations of merit-based evaluation. Much of the difference reflects a shift from unconditional to conditional approval rather than outright rejection. These penalties are remarkably consistent across scientific fields and respondent characteristics, with little evidence of heterogeneity, indicating that they reflect geopolitical rather than domain-specific concerns. Overall, the findings suggest that geopolitics influences gatekeeping judgments in government funding, with broad implications for peer review, scientific norms, and the future of international collaboration in an era of intensifying geopolitical competition. |
| JEL: | C93 F52 H40 O31 O38 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34789 |
| By: | Denning, Glenn |
| Abstract: | Achieving universal food security — healthy diets for all, from sustainable food systems — will require a comprehensive investment strategy that increases food supply, enhances distribution and access, reduces food losses and waste, and improves nutrition for all, while addressing and mitigating climate change. Despite increases in agricultural productivity and a sharp reduction in the proportion of undernourished people over the past 50 years, universal food security remains elusive. About 673 million people — 8.2 percent of the world population — are undernourished, and almost three billion people cannot afford a healthy diet. Our food systems are vulnerable to climate change while contributing one third of greenhouse gas emissions. Conflict and trade disruptions further compound the challenge and undermine past successes. Yet, we are incongruously underinvesting in agricultural improvement and food systems transformation, beginning with woefully inadequate support for international agricultural research: the foundation for more productive and resilient food systems. Food security has emerged as a geopolitical priority across the Indo-Pacific region. Leaders of China, India, ASEAN nations, the Pacific, and beyond have raised alarms and are looking for actionable policies and investments. In this address, I will outline a set of practical actions that Australia could take to advance food security in the Indo-Pacific region. Stepped-up action and investment by Australia in support of agricultural research and development would be widely welcomed in the region. As a nation, we have exceptional expertise and well-established partnership models in agriculture and food security that, if better supported and deployed, could serve our collective desire for regional peace and prosperity. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp25:391422 |